USFR Weekly Recap - July 30-31, 2016

July 30, 2016 03:30 AM
 

TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
JULY 30-31, 2016


OPENING HEADLINES:
FROM THE STUDIOS OF FARM JOURNAL BROADCAST,  THIS IS U.S. FARM REPORT. WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M TYNE MORGAN,  AND HERE'S WHAT WE'RE WORKING ON FOR YOU OVER   THE NEXT 60 MINUTES.  WE HAVE EYES IN THE NORTH DAKOTA SKY...  <CROPS ARE LOOKING VERY GOOD>  CROPS LOOK GOOD AND WHEAT HARVEST IS JUST DAYS  AWAY.  FOR GROWERS IN THE HIGH PLAINS, THE PACIFIC  NORTHWEST PORT IS THE PLACE TO GO...  WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT SHIPPING FROM THE PNW TO CHINA WE CAN CUT ABOUT 8 DAYS OFF THAT TRIP>  OUR FARM JOURNAL REPORT LOOKS AT HOW VITAL  THAT PORT IS TO SOME GROWERS.   <ANDREW HEAD> AND IN JOHN'S WORLD...
BIRTHDAY PEOPLE AND NON-BIRTHDYA PEOPLE, CAN WE JUST GET ALONG? 
FEDERAL RESERVE:
NOW FOR THE NEWS THAT MOVED THE MARKETS THIS WEEK, THE ECONOMY IS LOOKING BETTER, AND THE  FED SAYS NEAR-TERM RISKS ARE DIMNISHING. BUT  THERE WON'T BE AN INTEREST RATE HIKE YET.   WE'LL HAVE AT LEAST ONE MORE MONTH OF  UNCHANGED INTEREST RATES.  THE FEDERAL RESERVE SAYING THIS WEEK IT'S LEAVING INTEREST RATES FLAT, BUT NOT CLOSING THE  DOOR FOR A RATE HIKE IN THE COMING MONTHS. BUT NOT EVERYONE THINKS IT WILL HAPPEN THAT   SOON.  

CROPS LOOKIN’ GOOD:
THE NATION'S CROPS ARE STILL IN PHENOMENOL SHAPE.  THE LATEST USDA CROP PROGRESS REPORT SHOWS 76 PERCENT OF NATIONS CORN CROP IS STILL RATED GOOD TO EXCELLENT. THAT'S 6 POINTS BETTER THAN LAST YEAR AT THIS TIME.  NEARLY 80  PERCENT OF THE CROP IS SILKING. SOYBEANS WERE ALSO UNCHANGED WITH 71 PERCENT GOOD TO EXCELLENT, ALTHOUGH THE PERCENTAGE OF  THE CROP IN THE EXCELLENT CATEGORY WENT UP BY A  POINT. 
FRANCE FACE LOWEST WHEAT YIELDS IN 30 YEARS:
FRENCH FARMERS ARE FACING A TOUGH REALITY THIS  YEAR-- THE SMALLEST WHEAT YIELDS IN 30 YEARS. WATERLOGGED FIELDS FOR THE EU'S LARGEST WHEAT PRODUCER IS DROPPING THE YIELD TO AROUND 5 POINT 5 METRIC TONS OF GRAIN PER HECTARGE. AND AREAS WITH THE MOST RAIN COULD BE LUCKY TO HIT 3 TONS.
AUSTRALIA WHEAT OVER SUPPLY:
 BUT IN AUSTRALIA, IT'SA SITUATION OF TOO MUCH  WHEAT. THE COUNTRY'S BIGGEST GRAIN EXPORTER  SAYS IT'S BUILDING EMERGENCY STORAGE TO HOLD  WHAT'S LOOKING LIKE THE LARGEST CROP EVER. AUSTRALIA'S OFFICIAL COMOMDITIES BURUEAU IS PROJECING PRODUCTION TO HIT 15 AND A HALF MILLION TONNES.  
PRICEY PIGS:
CHINESE PIG PRICES ARE CLIMBING TO RECORD LEVELS, AS MASSIVE FLOODS ARE DROWNING ANIMALS   IN THE WORLD'S LARGEST PORK PRODUCER AND CONSUMER. JUST IN HUBEI {HOO-BAY}, CHINA, ABOUT 10 THOUSAND HOGS HAVE ALREADY DROWNED. AND NOW FEARS OF DISEASE OUTBREAKS ARE ALSO   SURFACING. ACCORDING TO BLOOMBERG, THE FLOODS IN THE  CENTRAL AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY ARE FORCING FARMERS TO SLAUGHTER MORE PICS, INCLUDING ONES NOT FAT ENOUGH.   IT COULD ALL PROMPT CHINA TO IMPORT A RECORD AMOUNT OF PORK.  
NATIONAL WEATHER:
THOSE ARE THE HEADLINES...METEOROLOGIST MIKE  HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH WEATHER. MIKE, SOME OF OUR VIEWERS COOLED OFF A LITTLE THIS WEEK. DOES THAT STICK AROUND?   THANKS TYNE WELL NOT SO MUCH I THINK IT DOES HEAT UP AGAIN IN MANY PARTS OF THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY BUT NOT AS INTENSE AS IT WAS NOW THE DRAUGHT MONITOR WERE SEEING THREE POCKETS IN THE GROWING AREAS TYPICALLY BESIDES CALIFORNIA WHICH HAS BEEN DRY FOR A WHILE THE SOUTHEAST EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE BLACK HILLS WESTWARD THOSE OF THE POCKETS THAT HAVE BEEN GETTING WORSE   TEASE:
THANKS, MIKE. WE'LL TALK COMMODITIES WITH DON ROOSE AND MARK GOLD. THAT'S AFTER THE BREAK.
ROUNDTABLE 1:

WELCOME BACK TO U S FARM REPORT ON THE MARKETING ROUNDTABLE THIS WEEK WE HAVE DON ROES OF U S COMMODITIES AND MARK GOLD OF TOP THIRD FRIDAY WAS A GOOD DAY FOR SOYBEANS WE SAW SOYBEANS IN THE GREEN THIS WEEK SO IS IT WEATHER WHAT'S WHAT'S DRIVING THE SOYBEAN PRICES RIGHT NOW DON WELL YOU KNOW I THINK WE'RE COMING IN THE KEY TIME FOR SOYBEANS AND THAT'S AUGUST YOU KNOW YOU CAN MAKE OR BREAK THE SOYBEANS JUST IN A VERY SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME I THINK IT'S THAT THE UNCERTAINTY THE WEATHER STILL YOU KNOW A DRIVING FORCE BUT ALSO THE FEAR OF SOME EXPORTS THAT ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO BE PRETTY STRONG WITH AN AUGUST REPORT COMING UP LOOK FOR THE EXPORTS ON OLD CROP PROBABLY TO INCREASE OF TWENTY TO THIRTY MILLION MAY BE ENDING STOCKS COME DOWN PROBABLY DON'T CHANGE THE YIELD ON THE AUGUST
ROUNDTABLE 2:
WELCOME BACK WELL WE JUST GOT DONE TALKING ABOUT WHAT IF USDA RAISES YIELD IN THIS NEXT REPORT BUT EVEN IF THEY DO INCREASE YIELD HAS OUR STOCKS SITUATION WHAT ARE WE STILL IS A STILL FRIENDLY EVEN IF WE HAVE A TREND LINE OR A LITTLE BIT ABOVE TREND LINE YIELD WELL I THINK ON CORN YOU KNOW WHAT YOU'RE REALLY LOOKING AT IS A CARRIE OUT THERE PROBABLY IS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN TWO POINT ONE IN TWO POINT FOUR FIVE BILLION BUSHELS SEEN IN JUST A BIG NUMBER IS NO DOUBT ABOUT THAT YOU CAN HAVE TO HAVE EXPORTS PICK UP ON SOY BEANS YOU KNOW VERY MUCH IT'S AN UNKNOWN YET THE ONE OR TWO BUSHELS ONE WHERE THE OTHER CAN REALLY MOVE THE ENDING STOCK FROM OVER THREE AND FIFTY MILLION TO CLOSER TO TWO HUNDRED MILLION SO STILL VERY MUCH A JUMP BALL AND I THINK THAT WITH THE SOYBEAN MARKET IS TELLING YOU IT'S MUCH MORE NERVOUS IN THE WHEAT AND THE CORN AT THE PRESENT TIME 
MARKETS NOW:
"ALL RIGHT NOW TIME FOR MARKETS NOW. LET'S GET A CLOSING THOUGHTS DON WE'LL START WITH YOU WELL I THINK WHEN YOU LOOK AT IT FROM A PRODUCER'S STANDPOINT IS THAT TIME A YEAR YOU'RE REALLY TRYING DECIDE WHAT TO DO REALISTICALLY ON THE CORN AND SOYBEANS YOU'RE WITHIN TEN PERCENT OF THE BOTTOM SO IT CERTAINLY IS NOT A MARKETING OPPORTUNITY BUT IT'S A CATCH UP SALES IF YOU HAVE TO AND I THINK THE OTHER THING HAVE TO REMEMBER THAT THIS IS NOT THE TIME THE YEAR THAT YOU TURNED BULLISH ON THE GRAIN MARKET YOU'VE GOT A LOT OF THE BULL NEWS BEHIND SO CATCH UP SALES WHICH YOU NEED TO TRY AND CUT THE CROP AWAY LOOK AT THE PREMIUMS THAT YOU HAVE IN THE SOYBEANS THE CARRY IN THE CORN. ALL RIGHT THANKS DON MARK WHILE I WOULD SAY THIS HAS BEEN A GREAT YEAR TO UNDERSTAND THAT AGAIN YOU'VE GOT A MARKET GRAIN WHEN YOU HAVE THE OPPORTUNITIES AND WE TALKED ABOUT A THREE FOUR MONTHS AGO THE FARMERS WOULD HAVE ONE OPPORTUNITY AT LEAST THIS YEAR AND ALWAYS HAD AN OPPORTUNITY TO SELL BEANS AND CORN PROFITABLE LEVELS A LOT OF FOLKS DIDN'T DO IT BECAUSE THERE WERE SO MUCH TALK ABOUT THE HEAT OUT THERE AND I THINK IT'S JUST A REFLECTION THAT YOU'VE GOT TO BE WILLING TO MARKET EVEN WHEN GUYS WERE SO BULLISH ALL RIGHT SOME GOOD ADVICE THANK YOU BOTH STAY WITH US JOHN PHIPPS JOINS US WHEN WE COME BACK
JOHN’S WORLD:
IT'S TIME FOR THIS WEEK'S JOHN'S WORLD AS WE HEAD TO THE FARM.   HAVE DECIDED YOU CAN SEPARATE PEOPLE INTO TWO KINDS - BIRTHDAY PEOPLE AND NON-BIRTHDAY, OR NORMAL, PEOPLE. I AM THE LATTER OF COURSE. BIRTHDAYS IN OUR FAMILY WERE NOTED BY THE BIG WHOOP OF  GETTING TO CHOOSE WHAT YOU WANTED FOR SUPPER. LATER AS WE GOT  OLDER WE RECEIVED A DOLLAR FOR EVERY YEAR.  TO BE SURE THERE WERE NOTABLE BIRTHDAYS. SIXTEEN WAS THE  BIGGEST OF ALL, BECAUSE ON THE DAY OF YOUR 16TH BIRTHDAY, A  PARENT WOULD TAKE YOU TO GET YOUR DRIVER'S LICENSE. IT WAS ANACCEPTED SCHOOL ABSENCE AND THE RESULTS EAGERLY ANTICIPATED BY YOUR FRIENDS. TO THIS DAY, I CAN STILL RATTLE OFF THE CORRECT SEQUENCE OF BIRTHDAYS FOR MY ENTIRE HIGH SCHOOL CLASS, BEGINNING  WITH DWAIN IN DECEMBER AND ENDING WITH ME THE FOLLOWING  NOVEMBER, THANKS TO A CRUEL 1 DECEMBER ENROLLMENT DEADLINE.  TO BE FAIR, A CLASS OF ELEVEN MAKES THIS LESS OF AN ACCOMPLISHMENT THAN YOU MIGHT IMAGINE. AT OUR 50TH CLASS ANNIVERSARY THIS SUMMER, WE DISCOVERED WE ALL COULD DUPLICATE THIS FEAT, SO IT WAS A COMMON PECULIARITY. 
TEASE:
OH, JOHN, I SEE A MAJOR CELEBRATION HAPPENING  FOR YOUR NEXTX BIRTHDAY.  
STILL TO COME, CHINA CHANGED THE GAME FOR TRADE IN THE WESTERN CORN BELT, AND IT'S ONE PORT THAT'S THE LIFELINE FOR MANY. WE'LL HEAD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AFTER THE BREAK.  
SECOND HALF OF THE SHOW OPENING HEADLINES:
FROM THE STUDIOS OF FARM JOURNAL BROADCAST, THIS IS U.S. FARM REPORT.   WE HAVE MUCH MORE AHEAD ON U-S FARM REPORT THIS WEEKEND.  IT'S A PORT VITAL TO THE WESTERN CORN BELT. WE'RE HEADING TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO SEE WHY EXPORTS SET SAIL AT SUCH AN IMPRESSIVE PACE. WHY SO MUCH TALK ABOUT YIELD AND NOT PROFIT? THAT'S CUSTOMER SUPPORT. IF YOU'VE EVER LEFT SOMETHING ON AN AIRPLANE, WE   MAY HELP YOU FIND IT IN AMERICAN COUNTRYSIDE. AND A SAD CHAPTER FOR ONE SMALLTOWN CHURCH. IT'S A TRIBUTE TO A COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE IN SACRED HEART, MINNESOTA.  
SPRING RALLY LIFTS OPTIMISM:
NOW FOR THE HEADLINES, THE SPRING RALLY HELPED  LIFT FARMERS' OPTIMISM SHORT-TERM, BUT TODAY'S WEAK COMMODITY PRICES ARE PUSHING THE RURAL  ECONOMY LOWER.   THAT'S ACCORDING CREIGHTON UNIVERSITY'S' RURAL  MAINSTREET INDEX.' IT'S A BANKER SURVEY THAT  HELPS TRACK THE GENERAL HEALTH OF THE  AG.ECONOMY IN TEN KEY STATES.  
DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION:
AS THE DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION FLOODED  PHILLADELPHIA THIS WEEK, THOSE IN ATTENDANCE  WATCHED HISTORY UNFOLD. HILLARY CLINTON BECAME THE FIRST PRESIDENTIAL   NOMINEE FOR A MAJOR PARTY, LAYING OUT HER PLAN  IF ELECTED AS PRESIDENT.   CALIFORNIA FIRES:
FIREFIGHTERS CONTINUE TO WORK ON CONTROLLING BLAZES IN NORTHERN CALIFONRIA THAT BECAME FATAL THIS WEEK.  MORE THAN THREE THOUSAND FIREFIGHTERS ARE  WORKING AROUND THE CLOCK.  A SPIKE IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND A DROP IN HUMIDITY DIDN'T LEND THEM ANY FAVORS. THE CAUSE OF THE FIREFIGHTER REMAINS UNDER  INVESTIGATION, BUT HIGH HEAT AND DROUGHT ARE  FUELING AN ACTIVE FIRE SEASON THIS YEAR.  THAT DROUGHT IN THE WEST JUST REMAINS PARKED IN  THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR.   DROUGHT MONITOR:
THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS DRYNESS  ALSO SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS AND   EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS WEEK, AS WELL AS MORE OF THE SOUTH.   DROUGHT IS ALSO INTENSIFYING IN OHIO, PENNSYLVANIE AND FARTHER NORTHEAST.  NOW LOOKING AT WHERE DRY CONDITIONS ARE  IMPROVING-- IOWA, NORTHEAST MISSOURI, WESTERN ILLINOIS AND EVEN NORTHERN INDIANA AND WESTERN MICHIGAN.  

LONGER RANGE FORECAST:
   THAT'S IT FOR NEWS...METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH OUR LONGER-RANGE   FORECAST. MIKE, HOW'S AUGUST SHAPING UP?  WELL THANKS TYNE FOR A LOT OF THE COUNTRY IS GOING TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL BUT THERE ARE SOME SMALLER AREAS IT'LL BE NEAR OR ACTUALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WHICH WILL SHOW YOU COMING UP IN THE MEANTIME AS WE START THE MONTH OF AUGUST AND HAD THROUGH THIS FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST YOU CAN SEE HOW THE RIDGE TRIES TO COME BACK UP NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY SO THE HEAT STARTS TO BUILD BACK THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY THEN WE SEE THE TROUGH DIG IN IN THE THE NORTHEAST AGAIN ANOTHER TROUGH FOR LATER IN THE WEEK IN INTO THIS WEEKEND REALLY DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN THE   NORTHEAST SHOVING THAT WARM AIR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AGAIN 

 PACIFIC NORTHWEST PORT:
THANKS, MIKE.  WE SHOWED YOU LAST WEEK HOW THE NEWLY  EXPANDED PANAMA CANAL IS CHANGING THE GAME FOR EXPORTS WORLD WIDE. BUT HERE AT HOME, OVER THE PAST DECADE, FARMERS IN THE WESTERN CORN BELT HAVE SEEN FIRST-HAND HOW DEMAND FROM CHINA CAN BOOST PRICES. AND IT'S ONE PORT THAT'S MADE IT POSSIBLE. IN THIS FARM JOURNAL REPORT, MICHELLE ROOK TAKES US TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO SEE FIRST-HAND, HOW VITAL ONE PORT CAN BE. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST PORT IS AN IMPORTANT EXPORT OUTLET FOR GRAIN COMING OUT OF THE WESTERN CORN BELT AND GOING TO COUNTRIES IN SOUTHEAST ASIA.   THAT'S BECAUSE CHINA'S THE TOP CUSTOMER FOR U.S. SOYBEANS AND THE PHILIPPINES LEADS THE LIST FOR MEAL.   "WE EXPORT ABOUT 60-PERCENT OF THE SOYBEANS THAT WE RAISE IN THE UNITED STATES.  FULLY ONE THIRD OF THOSE SOYBEANS THAT WE RAISE TODAY GO TO CHINA."  
I'M MICHELLE ROOK REPORTING FOR U-S FARM REPORT.  
TEASE:
UP NEXT, JOHN PHIPPS.  
CUSTOMER SUPPORT:
IT'S ABOUT YIELD, OR IT IS ABOUT PROFITABILITY?  WELCOME BACK. WELL, I AM GUILTY ABOUT TALKING A LOT ABOUT YIELD, ESPECIALLY IN THE MARKETING ROUDNTABLES, AND NOT ENOUGH ABOUT PROFITABILITY. A VIEWER HAS A QUESTION ABOUT THE TWO IN THIS  WEEK'S CUSTOMER SUPPORT. JOHN.  

TEASE:
NEXT UP, IF YOU TRAVEL A LOT, YOU KNOW HOW EASY IT IS TO FORGET SOMETHING ON THE PLANE. SO, WHAT HAPPENS TO ALL THOSE FORGOTTEN GOODS? ANDREW  MCCREA GIVES US A UNIQUE LOOK AT UNCLAIMED BAGGAGE NEXT.

WHAT HAPPENS TO UNCLAIMED LUGGAGE:
TRAVELING THE COUNTRY OR INTERNATIONALLY, CAN  BE FUN, BUT ISN'T ALWAYS GLAMOROUS. ESPEICALLY WHEN YOUR LUGGAGE GETS LOST.  ANDREW MCCREA TAKES US BEHIND THE SCENES, TO  SEE WHY ONE MAN'S LOST GOODS, IS ANOTHER'S FINE TREASURE.   IF YOU'VE EVER SPENT MUCH TIME FLYING ON A PLANE, THERE'S MOST  LIKELY BEEN A TIME WHEN YOU ARRIVED BUT YOUR LUGGAGE DIDN'T.   SUCH EVENTS WERE THE INSPIRATION FOR DOYLE OWENS' BUSINESS THAT  BEGAN WITH A DRIVE UP TO THE NATION'S CAPITAL BACK IN 1970.SHOTS OF LUGGAGE IN THE AIRPORT -  (HE WENT TO D.C. TO BUY HIS FIRST LOAD OF UNCLAIMED BAGGAGE, HE HAD A FRIEND UP THERE THAT HAD SOME BAGS AND HE WASN'T QUITE SURE WHAT TO DO WITH THEM. SO HE BORROWED 300 DOLLARS FROM ONE GRANDFATHER AND A PICK-UP TRUCK FROM THE OTHER AND THEY WENT UP TO D.C.  TO BUY THESE BAGS AND BROUGHT THEM BACK HERE TO   ALABAMA.   TRAVELING THE COUNTRYSIDE IN SOTTSBORO ALABAMA  I'M ANDREW MCCREA. 
Tease:
WHEN WE COME BACK, WE HAVE TRACTOR TALES AND A TRIBUTE TO A CHURCH THAT  NO LONGER STANDS, AFTER A DEVESTATING FIRE HIT LAST WEEK. WE'LL HAVE BOTH STORIES AFTER THE BREAK  TRACTOR TALES:
TRACTOR TALES BY MACHINERY PETE,THE MOST TRUSTED NAME IN EQUIPMENT. WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES. THIS WEEK WE HAVE A FARMALL FROM THE HOOSIER STATE. THIS MODEL C WAS BUILT IN 1948 AND WORKED THE FMAILY FARM FOR MANY YEARS. JIM YOARS CUT HIS TEETH ON THIS CLASSIC WHEN HE WAS JUST TEN YEARS OLD.  
COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTES:
AND A SAD TRIBUTE THIS WEEKEND FOR THE COUNTRY  CHURCH SALUTE. A SMALL COUNTRY CHURCH IN SACRED HEART, MINNESOTA BURNED DOWN LAST WEEKEND, AFTER LIGHTENING CAUSED THE STEEPLE TO CATCH FIRE. LOOK AT THESE HEARTBREAKING  PICTURES OF  HAWK CREEK CHURCH. MEMBER KAYLA  KEGNA TOOK THE PICTURES, SAYING HER FAMILY ATTENDED THAT CHURCH FOR DECADES, AND WAS  HARD TO WATCH IT BURN TO THE GROUND.
CROP COMMENTS:
WELCOME BACK TO BE TRAVELING THIS WEEK IT WAS NORTH DAKOTA AND LOOK AT THE SUNFLOWERS WE SHOT THIS WEEK NOW WE WERE AROUND THE JAMESTOWN AREA MIKE CAN YOU USE TO SEE THE SUNFLOWERS FOR MILES IN THAT AREA BUT DUE TO BIRDS AND OTHER PEST PROBLEMS NOT MANY GROWERS ACTUALLY FARM SUNFLOWER SITE ANOTHER AND MAINLY CORN SOYBEANS BUT IT WAS SO PRETTY THE SEA IN FULL BLOOM AND AMBER SNAPPED THIS PICTURE JUST OUTSIDE OF GOOD THUNDER MINNESOTA WHAT A GREAT SHOT SHE SAYS THE CROPS LOOK GREAT USDA SAYING THE SAME WITH EIGHTY FOUR PERCENT OF THE CORN IN GOOD TO EXCELLENT CONDITION WHILE EIGHTY SIX PERCENT OF THE CORN IS SULKING AS TWENTY FIVE POINTS AHEAD OF AVERAGE HAZING THAT 
CLOSING:
FOR ALL OF US THAT U S FARM REPORT ON TIME MORGAN THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR WATCHING BE SURE TO JOIN US AGAIN RIGHT HERE NEXT WEEK AS WE WORK TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND EVERYONE
 

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