USFR Weekly Recap - July 8-9, 2017

July 8, 2017 03:30 AM
 

TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
JULY 8-9, 2017

HEADLINES

WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M TYNE MORGAN,  AND HERE'S WHAT WE'RE WORKING ON FOR YOU OVER  THE NEXT 60 MINUTES.  E-U AND JAPAN STRIKE A TRADE DEAL... AND NOW AG  GROUPS ARE ASKING IF THE U-S IS NEXT.  USDA SENDING SHOCK WAVES WITH ITS ACREAGE  REPORT, BUT NOW, IT'S CROP CONDITIONS CAUSING  PRICES TO FADE.  TEXS LAND IS A HOT COMMODITY...  <THIS IS ONE OF THE FASTEST GROWING AREAS IN TEH COUNTRY> BUT IT'S THOSE PRICES ULTIMATELY DRIVING SOME OUT  OF BUSINESS.

JAPAN-EU TRADE DEAL
NOW FOR THE MARKET RELATED NEWS, THE EUROPEAN  UNION AND JAPAN STRIKING A TRADE DEAL THIS WEEK,  AND NOW AG GROUPS ARE URGING PRESIDENT TRUMP  TO FOLLOW SUIT.  ON THE HEELS OF A FAILED TRANS PACIFIC  PARNTERSHIP PACT, E-U AND JAPAN REACHING A  SEPERATE BILATERL AGREEMENT.  WHILE MANY DETAILS ABOUT THE TRADE PACT ARE  BLURRY, THE BIGGEST BENEFICIARIES WILL BE JAPANSE  CARS AND AG PRODUCTS FROM EUROPE.  THE NATIONAL PORK PRODUCERS COUNCIL USING THE  NEW TRADE PACT AS AN OPPORTUNITY TO RENEW ITS  REQUEST TO THE TRUMP ADMINSTRATION ABOUT THE  NEED FOR FREE TRADE TO JAPAN.  <60 PERCENT OF THE WORKD'S POPULATION LIVES IN TEH ASIA PACIFIC  AREA. AND SO BILATERAL TRADE AGREEMETNS WITH ABOUT 4 COUNTRIES  STARTING WITH JAPAN ARE PARAMOUNT FOR US>  NPPC CALLING JAPAN AN ECONOCIALLY AND  STRATEGICALLY IMPORTANT ALLY.  JAPAN IS HTE HIGHEST VALUE MARKET FOR U-S PORK  EXPORTS, WITH 1 POINT 6 BILLION DOLLARS WORTH  ENTERING JAPAN IN 2016. 

BEEF EXPORTS
SPEAKING OF EXPORTS, RABOBANK BULLISH ON BEEF  BUYS.  IN IT'S SECOND QUARTER ANALYSIS OF BEEF MARKETS,  RABOBANK SAYS GLOBAL SHIPMENTS FROM THE U.S.  ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FOLLOWING SEVERAL  MONTHS OF HICCUPS BY OTHER NATIONS. CITING POLITICAL AND FOOD SAFETY TURMOIL IN  BRAZIL, A TRADE PACT WITH CHINA AND REDUCED  HERDS IN AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND-- THERE'S  NOW MORE SPACE FOR U.S. BEEF IN GLOBAL MARKETS. AND CHINA SAYS IT'S FOLLOWING THE UNITED STATES'  LEAD, AND KEEPNG A CLOSER EYE ON BEEF IMPORTS  FROM BRAZIL.  CHINESE OFFICIALS INSTENSIFED INSPECTS OF  BRAZILIAN BEEF AFTER HTE U-S PLACED A BAN ON   MEAT PRODUCTS FROM BRAZIL.CHINA EITHER DESTROYED OR TURNED AWAY MORE  THAN 350 TONS OF BRAZILIAN MEAT IN MAY, WHICH  INCLUDED BOTH BEEF AND CHICKEN.  SOME WAS DUE TO FAILING TO PASS INSPECTION,  OTHERS WERE DUE TO MISLABELING OF PRODUCTS.  

CROP PROGRESS
WINTER WHEAT HARVET IS NOW MORE THAN HALFWAY  COMPLETE. AT 53 PERCENT, THAT'S A POINT BEHIND AVERAGE.  CALIFORNIA TRAILING THE MOST, AT 57 PERCENT  HARVESTED, 28 POINTS BEHIND NORMAL.  TEXAS IS 8 POINTS AHEAD OF AVERAGE, AT 93 PERCENT  COMPELTE.  AND THE MARKETS NOT RESPONDING POSITIVELY TO  USDA'S LATEST CROP PROGRESS REPORT. RELEASED ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE HOLIDAY, USDA  UPPING CORN CONDITION RATINGS BY A POINT, TO NOW  68 PERCENT GOOD TO EXCELLENT.  USDA BUMPING IT'S ILLINOIS CONDITIONS REPORT TO 65  PERCENT GOOD TO EXCELLENT. THAT'S THREE POINTS  BETTER THAN LAST WEEK.  TURNING TO BEANS - THEY DROPPED TWO POINTS IN  CONDITION. 64-PERCENT GOOD TO EXCELLENT. NORTH DAKOTA BEANS SAW A DECLINE OF SIX POINTS.. . 18-PERCENT OF THE NATION'S SOY CROP IS BLOOMING,  A POINT AHEAD OF AVERAGE. COTTON SEEING A THREE POINT DROP IN CONDITIONS  FROM LAST WEEK. MUCH OF THAT IS DUE TO A SIX  POINT DECLINE IN TEXAS COTTON. 14 POINTS FROM LAST WEEK. JUST EIGHT PERCENT IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT.

WEATHER
THOSE ARE THE HEADLINES...METEOROLOGIST MIKE  HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH WEATHER.  MIKE, I'M  HEARING FROM A LOT OF FARMERS THEIR FIELDS LOOK  LIKE THEY NEED A DRINK.  EAH AND I'M SURE THAT'S TRUE ALTHOUGH OTHER AREAS LIKE AROUND MY  HOUSE HERE ARE TWO INCHES IN LESS THAN AN HOUR ONE NIGHT.   WE DON'T NECESSARILY NEED ANY BUT I KNOW THERE'S A LOT OF  YOU THAT DO NEED SOME. ESPECIALLY IF YOU LIVE IN THAT CODE IS  BACK IN EASTERN MONTANA THAT'S WHERE THE DROUGHT MONITOR JUST  CONTINUES TO GET WORSE. YOU CAN ALSO SEE THAT AREA WESTERN  OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS GOTTEN VERY DRY AS  WELL. LET'S GO BACK A MONTH THOUGH YOU CAN SEE WE WERE STILL  PRETTY DRY IN FLORIDA. WE DIDN'T GET THE RAIN BY THEN. WE WERE JUST  WARM OR DRYING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE PAST  MONTH IT'S GOTTEN WORSE UP THERE AND ALL DROUGHT CONDITIONS  OBLITERATED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. SO LET'S  GO DAY BY DAY SHOW YOU WHO GETS RAIN NOW A LOT OF THIS I WILL  POINT OUT LIKE THIS IN THE SOUTHWEST IS JUST HIT AND MISS MOSTLY MISS. SAME IDEA KIND OF IN THE SOUTHEAST ALTHOUGH ALONG THAT  FRONT THERE'S A CHANCE ON MONDAY FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS  SYSTEM KIND OF DIVING THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES WITH SHOWERS  AND THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED THROUGH THAT AREA ALONG THAT FRONT.  WE'RE GOING TO HAVE MULTIPLE SYSTEMS WEAK WINDS KIND OF MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES BY WEDNESDAY THEN  YOU CAN SEE THE FIRST ONES ALREADY OFF SHORE. THE NEXT ONE  COMING THROUGH MINNESOTA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  NORTHERN PLAINS SCATTERED THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID- ATLANTIC. AGAIN THESE ARE HIT AND MISS AFTERNOON VARIETY OUT WEST  AND BY FRIDAY THEN THE SECOND SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE  THIRD ONE COMING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AGAIN THESE ARE ALL  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME OF THEM COULD BE  HEAVY.  AND THEN JUST HIT AND MISS SOUTHEAST AND ALSO SOUTHWEST  WILL CHECK YOUR LONGER RANGE FORECAST IN OUR NEXT HALF HOUR. THANKS, MIKE.

TEASE
ANDY SHISSLER AND JOE VACLAVIK ARE IN HOUSE THIS  WEEK TO GIVE US A PLAY BY PLAY OF THESE VOLATILE  MARKETS. WE'LL DO THAT RIGHT AFTER THE BREAK.

ROUNDTABLE 1
WELCOME BACK TO THE MARKETING ROUNDTABLE. THIS WEEKEND THE SCHUSSLER AND JOE VACULIK. IT WAS PRETTY EXPLOSIVE WEEK IN THE MARKETS. WE LOOK AT A HALF A DAY OF TRADE ON MONDAY BEFORE INDEPENDENCE DAY AND THEN WEDNESDAY WE HAD SOME EXPLOSIVE TRADE. WHAT IS THE FOCUS OF THE MARKETS BEEN KIND OF THIS WEEK.  ANDY IT'S BEEN ON YIELD LIKE THESE THESE FORECASTS ARE FRUSTRATING BECAUSE THE GFS I THINK HAS NOT BEEN VERY GOOD THIS YEAR AS FAR AS PREDICTING WHAT KIND OF MOISTURES ARE GOING TO GET AND WHERE THEY SHOW UP. AND SO WE'VE BEEN FLEXING BACK AND FORTH ON THESE MODELS LIKE THREE TIMES A DAY AND THEN SO WE'RE LOOKING AT CAN WE PRODUCE A 170 AND I WOULD SAY WE CANNOT YOU KNOW IS IT A 165 YOU KNOW SO THAT'S WHAT THE TRADES KIND OF HALF PEOPLE THINK WE CAN DO 170 A LOT OF PEOPLE THINK WE CAN'T. AND SO LIKE THAT'S DAY TO DAY THAT'S WHAT WE'RE DOING. AND IF WE GET THESE RAINS THEY FEEL LIKE WE'LL ALL BE SAVED AND I THINK IT'S JUST NOT GOING HAPPEN. DO YOU THINK WE CAN HIT TREND LINE YIELD THIS YEAR JOE. I GUESS IT'S POSSIBLE. I MEAN WE'VE STILL GOT A LOT OF JULY LEFT TO GO OUT OF POLLINATION IS GOING TO BE LATE THIS YEAR. I'M NOT LEANING THAT WAY PERSONALLY BUT WE'VE GOT ALL THE TIME IN THE WORLD TO DEBATE YIELDS SO I'M NOT GOING TO GET TOO WORKED UP ABOUT WHAT SPECIFIC NUMBER I THINK IS POSSIBLE OR IS OUT THERE BECAUSE IT'S REALLY STILL TO BE DETERMINED. BUT THE WAY THE MARKETS ACTED THE MARKET I THINK IS IS TELLING US OR HINTING AT THE FACT THAT THE IDEA THAT MAYBE THERE'S SOMETHING WRONG HERE AND MAYBE IT'S NOT QUITE AS GOOD AS WHAT THE USDA IS TELLING US. I MEAN THIS DECEMBER CORN ABOVE $4 IS MAKING SOME KIND OF STATEMENT HERE I THINK.  SO I MEAN WE'RE COMING FRESH OFF OF THIS ACREAGE REPORT. DOES THE TRADE NOT CARE ABOUT THAT ACREAGE REPORT I MEAN HAS IT ALREADY KIND OF FORGOTTEN THAT AND WE'RE TOTALLY FOCUSED ON WEATHER RIGHT NOW.  WELL I THINK THE ACRES REPORT WAS HEAVY ON CORN AND THAT'S PROBABLY MOSTLY RIGHT I THINK AND THE BEAN NUMBER WAS PROBABLY PRETTY CLOSE TO WHAT IT SHOULD BE. PEOPLE PLANTED CORN AND BEANS IN BAD CONDITION AND DIDN'T DO A LOT OF PREVENT PLANT. SO WE HAVE POOR POPULATION OUT OF THERE AND THAT'S WHY I DON'T THINK WE CAN. THAT TREND IS LIKE WE PLANTED IN BAD WE PLANTED SOME BAD ACRES THIS YEAR AND I THINK THAT IS GOING TO DRAG THE YIELD DOWN AS MUCH AS ANYTHING FROM FROM THIS POINT AND WE STARTED LATE. SO IT'S HARD TO IT'S HARD TO TAKE PRE-EVENT PLANT. I THINK WE SAW MUCH OF IT. I  HAVEN'T I HAVEN'T HEARD FROM A LOT OF FARMERS THAT ARE SAYING THIS YEAR'S CROP YOU KNOW ON THEIR FARMS BETTER THAN BETTER THAN LAST YEAR BUT CROP CONDITION RATINGS WE LOOK AT USDA ACTUALLY UPPED THE CROP CONDITION RATINGS IN CORN INCLUDING IN ILLINOIS AND THAT KIND OF WEIGHED ON THE PRICES THIS WEEK MAYBE A LITTLE BIT.  I DON'T THINK THE CONDITIONS MEAN A WHOLE LOT THIS EARLY IN THE GAME ONCE YOU GET INTO AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER AND YOU'RE THROUGH POLLINATION YOU CAN START TO GET A BETTER FEEL FOR WHAT'S OUT THERE. BUT THIS EARLY I JUST DON'T THINK IT MATTERS. JUST LIKE I DON'T THINK USDA YIELD ESTIMATE IN JULY MATTERS A WHOLE LOT. THERE'S JUST TOO MUCH TO BE DETERMINED HERE TO KNOW WITH ANY CERTAINTY. AND FOR THE MOMENT THE MARKET IS KIND OF AIRING ON THE SIDE OF YOU KNOW MAYBE THERE'S THERE'S GOING TO BE A PROBLEM HERE. SO THEN WHAT DOES IT TAKE FOR US TO SEE A SUBSTANTIAL. RALLY THIS YEAR EVEN MORE SO THAN WE'VE SEEN ALREADY WHAT IS IT GOING TO TAKE. WELL I THINK.  THIS WHOLE CROPS CORN I THINK IS GETTING RUN OUT NOW. AND I THINK ONCE THAT'S DONE I THINK WE GET PROOF HARVEST. I THINK YOU'RE GOING TO SEE MULTI-MONTH RALLY. AND SO I FEEL LIKE WE'VE PUT OUR LOWS IN FOR THIS CROP YEAR FOR CORN AND BEANS BOTH. I THINK YOU KNOW FROM JUNE 30TH ON I THINK WE'LL PROBABLY WORK HIGHER YOU KNOW INTO THE NEXT YEAR. WE HAD 12 MONTHS IN CORN WHERE WE DIDN'T DO ANYTHING IN PRICE ON THE YEAR OF 12 MONTHS AND WHEN WE DO A LOT IN PRICE THINK ALL THAT COMING.  I THINK IT WILL GO HIGHER THAN YOU THINK YOU THINK WE'VE ALREADY PUT THE LOW END IN BOTH CORN AND BEANS AND WHEAT.  I WOULD LIKE TO THINK SO YEAH I THINK OWNERSHIP IS A BIG THING IN THE SOYBEAN MARKET. OWNERSHIP IS REALLY REALLY INTERESTING. FUNDS WERE RECORDS SHORT ON THE LOW. ESSENTIALLY WHEN WE WERE DOWN TO WHAT $9 AND SEVEN CENTS IN NOVEMBER BEANS FUNDS WERE RECORD SHORT AT THAT POINT BY BY A GOOD 25 OR 30 PERCENT EXCEEDING THEIR PREVIOUS RECORD SHORT. FARMERS DON'T OWN ANY OLD CROP BEANS IN ANY SIZE AT THIS POINT SO THERE'S NOBODY TO CAP THESE RALLIES IN THE SOYBEAN MARKET I THINK THAT'S WHY IT'S BEEN SO STRONG WHEN YOU GET A LITTLE BIT OF WEATHER SCARING THE MIX. CORN IS THE SAME THING. WE GOT TO GET SOME PEOPLE ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THE MARKET YOU GOT TO GET PEOPLE THAT ARE WILLING TO GIVE MONEY AWAY TO BE SHORT. THIS THING AROUND ALI AND THAT'S WHY WE'RE IN THE PROCESS OF DOING HERE I THINK.  BUT WHAT DO WE NEED TO WATCH. WHAT YIELD DO WE NEED TO GET TO REALLY SHRINK THE STOCKS AND HAVE AN ISSUE TO WHERE WE DO SEE A REAL SUBSTANTIAL RALLY LIKE WHAT YIELD ARE YOU LOOKING FOR IN CORN AND BEANS TO MAKE THAT HAPPEN. I  THINK 140 LET'S SAY 165 FOR THE MARKET. AND I THINK A 160 YEAR OLD IS 550. REALLY. YEAH. YOU THINK WE CAN GET DOWN TO 160 DOESN'T MEAN THAT SEEMS WE'RE GOING TO REALLY KIND OF BURN THE WEST UP. SO WE'VE ALREADY LOST A LOT OF STUFF GOING TO COME BACK THERE. AND IF THE WEATHER DOESN'T STAY GOOD IN JULY HERE THIS HAVE REALLY KIND OF MEDIOCRE YIELDS. YOU KNOW ONE SHOOT TO ONE SIXTY FOUR YEAR OLD USED TO BE REALLY REALLY GOOD NATIONALLY. AND SO LIKE IF I'D HAD A 164 I'D SAY THAT WOULD BE GREAT. AND THAT'S A REALLY HIGH PRICE I THINK.  SO I KNOW YOU HATE TALKING ABOUT YOU BUT WHAT DO WE NEED TO SEE IN YOUR OPINION TO MOVE THESE MARKET. FOR ME IT'S NOT NECESSARILY A QUESTION OF WHAT THE FINAL DEAL IS. IT'S WHAT DOES THE TRADE GET SCARED INTO THINKING IT MIGHT BE FOR A MINUTE OR TWO HERE AND THEN. IF THE TRADE FOR SECOND THINKS IT'S 160. I MEAN THIS THING'S OFF TO THE RACES AND WE'RE NOT THERE YET. I DON'T THINK BUT MAYBE WE'RE GETTING CLOSER TO THAT ESPECIALLY IF SOME OF THESE WEATHER FORECASTS WE'VE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS COME TO FRUITION.  ALL RIGHT SO IF SOME OF THESE SOME OF THESE POSSIBLE OUTCOMES ARE TRUE WHAT SHOULD YOU BE DOING WITH YOUR COVERAGE NOW. JUST KIND OF SET AND WAIT OR START MARKETING IT. WE'LL TALK ABOUT THAT. PLUS THIS WEEK MARK YOU KNOW ARE WE OVER DONE HAVE WE HIT OUR HIGH. WE'RE LOOKING AT THAT. WHEN WE COME BACK ON U.S. FARM REPORT.

ROUNDTABLE 2
ALL RIGHT WELCOME BACK. WELL YOU KNOW WE MADE SOME BOLD PREDICTIONS ON POSSIBLY WHAT THIS YIELD COULD BE AND REALLY WHAT YIELD IT WOULD TAKE TO MOVE THESE MARKETS HIGHER. SO LET'S SAY WE DO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MOVE HIGHER. WHAT IS YOUR SUGGESTION FOR PRODUCERS WHO ARE NEEDING TO MARKET THIS YEAR'S CROP. I THINK YOU'LL HAVE A LOT MORE OPPORTUNITIES TO MARKET THIS YEAR'S CROP THAN YOU THINK. AND I THINK WE'LL HAVE SOMETHING THIS SUMMER WHERE YOU CAN KIND OF TAKE CARE OF WHAT YOU NEED TO GET DELIVERED TO THE FALL INTO LIKE SAY JAN. 1 LIKE I WOULD I WOULD GET THAT STUFF PRICED AND I'M I STILL THINK WE'RE GOING TO HAVE 450 IN THE SUMMER. I THINK WE HAVE A REALLY GOOD SHOT OF THE THIS. YEAH I THINK WE ARE A GOOD SHOT AT IT AND THAT'S PROBABLY WE'RE ALL PRICE MY INTO JANUARY 1 CORN AND I'M NOT GOING TO PRICE ANY SOYBEANS UNLESS I HIT THAT 450 MARK IN CORN IF I HIT THE FOUR FOR THE MARKET PRICE OF BEANS OR WHATEVER PRICE THAT IS. BUT I'M KIND OF BULLISH BEANS AND THE NEXT YEAR AND I THINK THAT THE PRICES WILL GET BETTER. WHAT'S YOUR WHAT'S YOUR SUGGESTION? FOR OLD CROP CORN. I'M A LITTLE FRIENDLY. THE MARKET OVERALL BUT AT THE SAME TIME THE OLD CROP CORN MARKET SEPTEMBER FUTURES ARE WITHIN A NICKEL OF 12 MONTH HIGHS. SO YOU KNOW ANYBODY WHO MISSED THE MARKETING BOTH THE LAST COUPLE OF TIMES AROUND THIS IS YOUR CHANCE TO SELL A ONE YEAR HIGH IN THE MARKET. DO I THINK THEY'LL END UP LOOKING LIKE GREAT SALES IN THE FUTURE? MAYBE NOT. BUT RELATIVE TO WHAT YOU'VE SEEN THE LAST 12 MONTHS I CAN'T ARGUE WITH GETTING A LITTLE BIT MORE OLD CROP SOLD THAN JUST HEDGING YOUR BETS A LITTLE BIT, BECAUSE I KNOW NOBODY IS GOING TO GET TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NEW CROP HERE.  YEAH. WHAT IS THE LIKELIHOOD THAT CHINA COMES TO THE TABLE AND STARTS BUYING CORN IN A MAJOR WAY. I THINK IT'S POSSIBLE MAINLY BECAUSE THEY'VE HAD SOME HOT WEATHER OVER THERE AND THEY HAVEN'T HAD A WEATHER PROBLEM FOR THREE OR FOUR YEARS. A BIG ONE SEEMS LIKE THIS HE'S KIND OF BEEN HANGING AROUND THERE AND IF THEY SEE YIELDS STEP BACK YOU KNOW PRETTY GOOD THIS YEAR. I COULD SEE THEM ENTERING THE MARKET. SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR MAYBE EVEN EARLIER. IF IF IT WAS A REAL PROBLEM ON THEIR YIELD BUT I THINK THAT WE HAVE HAD SOME ISSUES. I THINK THEY'RE STARTING TO HAVE SOME ISSUES ABOUT ANOTHER MONTH OF A PRETTY GOOD IDEA IF IT COULD BE A BIG DEAL OR NOT BECAUSE IT'S A LITTLE EARLY IN THE GROWING SEASON BUT IT'S BEEN REALLY HOT AT THE SAME TIME  HOW'S CHINA'S DEMAND BEEN ON THE BEAN SIDE? MEAN HAVE WE SEEN SOME PRETTY STRONG EXPORTS. ?YES. MUCH BETTER THAN JUST ABOUT ANYBODY WOULD HAVE ANTICIPATED INTO THIS SUMMER. PART OF THIS IS TO DO WITH LOW PRICES IN BRAZIL BRAZILIAN FARMERS AREN'T SELLING THE STORE AS MUCH AS THEY CAN THERE THEY'RE WAY UNDER SOLD COMPARED TO WHERE THEY ARE IN A NORMAL YEAR. SO MAYBE THAT'S HELPING OUR EXPORT DEMAND ALSO MAYBE JUST SOME OF THE INFRASTRUCTURE THINGS DOWN THERE THEY CAN ONLY MOVE A CERTAIN AMOUNT IT AT A CERTAIN TIME IS HELPING US. BUT YOU HAVE BEEN EXPORTS ARE OUTPERFORMING EXPECTATIONS. I WOULD SAY THAT CHINA HAS TAKEN AN AGGRESSIVE APPROACH TO OVERLOAD DEMAND IN CASE THERE'S A CROP PROBLEM BECAUSE WE'VE HAD GOOD CROPS FOR THREE YEARS IN SOYBEANS AND CORN AND THEY DON'T WANT TO GET CAUGHT. AND SO I THINK THEY'RE GOING TO THEY'RE TRYING TO OVERLOAD THEIR DEMAND SO THAT THEY'RE KIND OF SPREAD ON A MARKET IN CASE SOMETHING CHANGES OR ALL OF A SUDDEN WE'RE 13, $16 WITH SOME KIND OF HUGE CROP ISSUE. SO I THINK YOU'RE GOING TO CONTINUE TO SEE THEM OVERLOAD THE DEMAND SIDE WHILE THE PRICES ARE LOW. IF THAT'S THE CASE YOU'VE GOT TO SAY THEY'RE GOOD RISK MANAGERS I GUESS. I MEAN BUY EVERYTHING THEY NEED A 10 YEAR LOWS YOU CAN'T REALLY ARGUE WITH THAT I GUESS.  SO SWITCHING TO THE WHEAT MARKET REAL QUICK. YOU KNOW WE'VE SEEN SOME IMPRESSIVE ACTION ESPECIALLY IN THE SPRING WHEAT MARKET. DO YOU THINK THAT CONTINUES. CAN CAN CONTINUE OR DO YOU THINK WERE OVERDONE AT THIS POINT. NO WE'RE NOT OVERDONE. I DON'T THINK THE SPRING WE MARKET IS IS PURELY IN DEMAND RATIONING MOTIER THE CROP IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS TOAST IT'S DONE AND IT'S ON THE LOWEST ACREAGE THAT WE'VE SEEN IN THE MODERN ERA. YOU KNOW WE WERE GOING UP. WE HARVESTED 20 MILLION ACRES OF SPRING WHEAT THE MID-NINETIES AND WE'RE GOING TO BE DOWN TO 10 MILLION THIS YEAR. SO WE'RE HAVING A MAJOR CROP ISSUE ON MINIMAL ACREAGE. MY MY BIGGER CONCERN IS THE WINTER WHEAT MARKETS WHICH ARE. MORE HEAVILY PRODUCED CROPS SOMETHING THAT PROBABLY AFFECTS MORE OF THE VIEWERS HERE. AND I WOULD BE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT DOWNSIDE RISK IN THOSE MARKETS BECAUSE I THINK THERE'S STILL PLENTY OF THAT STUFF FLOATING AROUND. YOU DO YEAH AND OUR SPRING WHAT IS NOT ENOUGH TO CARRY THE CHICAGO WHEAT? WELL IT HAS E UP TO THIS POINT  I JUST WORRY THAT AT SOME POINT THEY'RE GOING TO KIND OF SEPARATE THEMSELVES IN THE SPRING WE'RE GOING TO HOLD UP MUCH BETTER PRICES. BUT YOU COULD SEE A CORRECTION IN THESE WINTER WHEAT MARKETS. YES I WOULD SAY THAT IT WOULD HAVE TO BE LED BY EUROPE TO HAVE AN OVERALL MARKET. THAT'S A LOT A LOT DIFFERENT. I WOULD SAY REAL QUICK LIKE CATTLE PRICES DO YOU THINK WE'RE TOO LOW AT THIS POINT. I THINK WE ARE. I MEAN WE HAD A NICE RALLY IT BROKE REALLY HARD AND WE'RE KIND OF BASING AT THIS PRICE YOU KNOW THIS 114 AREA ON LIVES I KIND OF WOULD LIKE TO OWN IT HERE. I THINK IT'S TOO CHEAP. BUT IT MIGHT JUST FLATLINE AT THIS PRICE FOR A WHILE AND TRADE ARR.. WHAT DO YOU THINK. I AGREE I DON'T THINK WE'RE GOING BACK TO 95 BUCKS. BUT I DON'T THINK WE'RE GOING BACK TO 135 EITHER. I THINK WE'LL BE RANGE BOUND BUT IT'S GOING TO BE A WIDER RANGE BECAUSE IT'S CABLESO. ALL RIGHT. THAT'S HOW IT'S GOING TO WORK.  ALL RIGHT FOR ME TO TAKE A QUICK BREAK BUT WHEN WE COME BACK WE'LL GET THEIR CLOSING THOUGHTS. DON'T GO ANYWHERE.

MARKETS NOW
WELCOME BACK. TIME NOW FOR CLOSING THOUGHTS. ANDY SHISSLER. SHOULD GET SOME MARKETING OPPORTUNITIES HERE IN CORN HERE IN THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO. I DON'T THINK IT WILL BE YOUR ONLY OPPORTUNITY. I THINK WE'LL SEE MORE DOWN THE ROAD. BUT I WOULD LOOK AT $4.25 TO $4.50 TO TRY TO DO SOME DEC CORN THAT AT THIS POINT.  JOE. I THINK THE MARKETS CAN BE VERY FRIENDLY HERE BUT HEDGE YOUR BETS AND START TO MAKE SOME LIGHT SALES AS THE MARKET GOES UP. I'M NOT THRILLED AT ALL ABOUT THE PROFIT MARGINS ON THE FARM WITH THESE KIND OF PRICES. SO I'M GOING TO DO WHAT I NEED TO COVER MY BASES AND PAY MY BILLS BUT I WANT TO LEAVE THE UPSIDE OPEN ON A GOOD CHUNK OF IT IF POSSIBLE. SO LIK SALES. ALL RIGHT. THANK YOU BOTH FOR BEING HERE THIS WEEK. WE APPRECIATE IT. STAY WITH US. JOHN PHIPPS JOINS US NEXT.

JOHN’S WORLD
IT'S TIME NOW FOR JOHN'S WORLD FROM THE FARM.  FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO HAVE WATCHED FOR SOME TIME, YOU KNOW I  AM A BIG FAN OF TECHNOLOGY. I TUNE IN TO PROGRAMS THIS OLD  HOUSE TO SEE WHAT TECHNOLOGY IS DOING TO HELP ME WITH MY  PROJECTS AND REPAIRS AROUND THE FARM AND HOME.  NO AREA HAS SEEN MORE INNOVATION THAT THE LOWLY ART OF  PLUMBING. WHEN I BEGAN FOOLING AROUND WITH WATER, WE WERE JUST  ON THE EDGE OF PVC PIPING. I THINK BACK TO THE STRUGGLE OF STEEL  PIPES - HOW HARD IT WAS TO CUT, THREAD AND SEAL JOINTS, NOT TO  MENTION THE THREE-DIMENSIONAL CHESS PROBLEM OF HOW TO ROUTE  AND CONNECT RIGID PIPES IN CONFINED SPACES. COPPER TUBING IN MY  HANDS RISKED BURNING MY HOUSE DOWN, OR THE FRUSTRATION OF FLARED  CONNECTIONS AND KINKED TUBING. WHEN PVC MADE IT A CUT AND  GLUE OPERATION, I REJOICED. BUT PVC HAS ITS OWN ISSUES. NOT EVERY JOINT GETS GLUED PERFECTLY.  AND WHILE IT WAS SOMEWHAT FLEXIBLE, YOU STILL HAD TO WORK IN  MOSTLY STRAIGHT LINES. DONE WRONG IT CAN BE NOISY DUE TO HEAT  EXPANSION. A NEW SYSTEM HAS TAKEN OVER - PEX, WHICH STANDS FOR CROSS- LINKED POLYETHYLENE. NOW NORMALLY, I REJOICE WHEN TECHNOLOGY  TAKES A SUCH GIANT LEAP FORWARD, BUT TO TELL YOU THE TRUTH, I LOOK  BACK AT THE TIME AND EFFORT I SPENT WITH OLDER PIPING MATERIALS  AND JUST WANT TO CRY. PEX HAS REDUCED PLUMBING TO VIRTUAL CHILD'S  PLAY. NOT ONLY IS IT EASY TO CUT, IT IS VERY FLEXIBLE. REMODELING A  KITCHEN OR BATH WILL NEVER BE THE SAME. BUT BEST OF ALL,  CONNECTIONS ARE MADE BY SIMPLY PUSHING PARTS TOGETHER - I AM  REMINDED OF TINKERTOYS FOR ALL YOU WHO REMEMBER THEM.  BUT HERE'S WHAT MADE MY LOWER LIP TREMBLE. AMATEURS LIKE ME  KNOW FULL WELL WE'RE GOING TO MAKE WHOPPING ERRORS IN OUR  PLANNING AND EXECUTION. WE OFTEN DO THE SAME INSTALLATION  ESSENTIALLY TWICE OR MORE. PEX MAKES GOOFUPS NEARLY NO FAULT.  JUST LIKE HAVING AN UNDO BUTTON ON YOUR COMPUTER PROGRAM,  CONNECTIONS CAN BE UNMADE AND REDONE WITHOUT A PROBLEM. YOU  CAN ALMOST JUST TRIAL AND ERROR EVERY INSTALLATION. IT IS THIS DO-OVER  FEATURE THAT KINDA WORRIES ME. FOR EVERY ADVANCEMENT LIKE PEX,  THERE ARE STILL MANY THINGS IN LIFE THAT ARE ONE-SHOT ONLY. WE  NEED TO BE SURE WE KNOW WHICH IS WHICH. INTERESTING TAKE, THANKS JOHN.

TEASE
EMMINANT DOMAIN  AND URBAN SPRAWL ARE TWO BATTLES TEXAS  FARMERS AND RANCHERS CONTINUE TO FACE. STILL TO  COME, WE TRAVEL TO THE LONESTAR STATE TO SEE  WHY THESE PARCELS OF LAND ARE IN SUCH HIGH  DEMAND. 

HEADLINES
WELCOME BACK TO U-S FARM REPORT THIS WEEKEND.  WE HAVE MUCH MORE AHEAD THIS WEEKEND.  AS URBAN SPRAWL CONTINUES TO CONSUME TEXAS  LAND, IT'S CREATING A BATTLE FOR FARMERS AND  RANCHERS.  THIS TOBACCO BARN MAY BE AGED, BUT IT'S STILL IN  USE, REPRESENTING KENTUCKY'S RICH AG HISTORY.  AND IN CUSTOMER SUPPORT, AN INDEPTH LOOK AT  MANUFACTURING. 

PURDUE AG BAROMETER
NOW FOR THE HEADLINES... FARMERS SAY THEIR FINANCIAL PICTURE S IS BRIGHTER  THAN IT WAS A YEAR AGO.  THE LATEST AG ECONOMY BAROMETER OUT THIS WEEK  SHOWING OUT OF THE 400 AG PRODUCERS SURVEYED,  THEIR PERPSECTIVE PRETTY CONSISENT WITH LAST  MONTH. THAT'S WHY THE BAROMTER HELD PRETTY STEADY FOR  A THIRD CONSECUTIVE MONTH AT 131.  PURUDE TEAMS UP WITH CME TO RELEASE THE  BAROMETER EACH MONTH.  THEY SAY THE SHIFT IN PRODUCERS' PERSEPCTIVES ON  THE FARM FINANCIAL PICTURE IS PART OF AL ONG-TERM  TREND. BUT IT'S BOLSTERED THIS YEAR BY THE WILD  WEATHER.  <A LITTLE OVER HALF OF THE PRODUCERS IN OUR SURVEY SAID THEY EXPECT  EXTREME WEATHER TO AFFECT CROP YIELDS THIS YEAR. THAT'S SUBANTIALLY  MORE THAN FELT THAT WAY BACK IN MARCH. 1/3 OF HT EPRODUCERS IN  OUR SUVEY SAID THEY MADE CHANGES IN THEIR MARKETING PLANS FOR  THIS YEAR, AS AR ESULT OF THEIR WEATHER EXPECTATIOS. ADNT THAT'S UP  FROM ABOUT 22% THAT SAID THEY WERE MAKING CHANGES WHEN WE  SURVEYED THEM BACK IN MARCH> MINTERT ALSO SAYS MORE ATTRACTIVE FERTILIZER  PRICES AND DECLINE CASH RENTS PLAYED INTO  PRODUCERS' FAVOR THIS YEAR.

TRUMP ADMIN AND BROADBAND
THE TRUMP'S PROMISE TO BOOST BROADBAND ACROSS  RURAL AREAS COULD BE A COSTLY ONE.  A BLOOMBERG REPORT PLACING AN 80 BILLION DOLLAR  PRICETAG TO EXPAND BROADBAND TO ALL RURAL AREAS ACROSS THE COUNTRY THAT NEED IT.  THAT FALLS SHORT OF TRUMP'S MOST RECENT  SPENDING PROPOSALS ONLY SET ASIDE $25 MILLION  OVER THE NEXT TEN YEARS ON RURAL  INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDS.  ONLY 55 PERCENT OF RURAL RESIDENTS HAVE ACCESS  TO BROADBAND WITH SPEEDS FASTER THAN 25  MEGABITS PER SECOND, WHICH IS THE GOVERNMENT'S  STANDARD FOR ADEQUATE SERVICE.  THAT COMPARES WITH 94 PERCENT IN URBAN AREAS  ACROSS THE COUNTRY. 

EPA AND BIOFUELS
EPA RELEASING THE 2018 RENEWABLE VOLUME  OBLIGATION, OR R-V-O AND ITS DRAWING MIXED  REACTION. EPA MAINTAINING THE CONVENTIONAL BIOEFUL  REQUIREMENT OF THE RENEWABLE FUELS STANDARD  AT 15 BILLION GALLONS THE TOTAL RENEWABLE FUEL VOLUME IS 19 POINT 24  BILLION GALLON, JUST DOWN FROM THE 19.28  REQUIRED.  BOB DINEEN OF RENEWABLE FUELS ASSOCAITION  CALLING IT A WIN, SAYING THE RULE WILL HELP DRIVE  MORE INVESTMENT IN INFRASTRUCTURE TO HELP  HANDLE HIGHER ETHANOL BLENDS.  THE NATIONAL BIODISEL BOARD NOT AS HAPPY WITH  EPA'S ANNOUNCEMENT, AS BIODESEL IS SET AT 2 POITN  1  BILLION GALLS, DOWN FROM THE 2.75 REQUIRED BY  THE MANDATE. 

BRAZIL DELAYING TARIFF ON U.S. ETHANOL IMPORTS
ALSO ON THE ETHANOL FRONT, BRAZIL ANNOUCING ITS  DELAYING ITS DECISION ON A PENDING PROPOSAL TO  SLAP A 17 PERCENT TARIFF ON U-S ETHANOL IMPORTS.  GROUOPS LIKE RFA, U-S GRAINS COUNCIL AND GRWOTH  ENERGY PLEASED WITH THE DECISION, SAYING  INCREEASING TARIFFS WILL HURT BRAZILIAN  CONSUMPERS BY DRIVING UP COSTS AT HTE PUMP.

CANADIAN PEDV
CANADIAN PORK PRODUCERS FACING A PEDV  OUTBREAK.  ACCORDING TO PORK NETWORK, OFFICIALS  CONFIRMING 49 OPERATIONS TESTING POSITIVE FOR P- E-D-V IN SOUTHEAST MANITOBA THIS YEAR.  U-S WHEAT ACRES DECLINING ALMOST YEARLY OVER  THE LAST 35 YEARS.

CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR WHEAT
AND NOW THAT ACRES HIT A 100 YEAR LOW, RABOBANK  SAYS IT'S CREATING BOTH CHALLENGES AND  OPPORTUNIES FOR THE WHEAT  INDUSTRY. RABOBANK SAYS THE LARGEST BITE OUT OF ACRES IS  IN HARD RED WINTER WHEAT, A CONCERN FOR THE  BAKING INDUSTRY.  RABOAK SAYS DUE TO LESS ACRES AND A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR PRODUCTION PROBLEMS,  HARD  RED WHEAT PRICES ADN SPREADS EBTWEEN U-S  WHEAT CLASSES ARE LIKELY TO BECOME WIDER AND  MROE VOLATILE IN THE FUTURE.

WEATHER
THAT'S IT FOR NEWS...METEOROLOGIST MIKE  HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH THE NATIONAL  FORECAST. MIKE, WE KNOW JULY WILL BE HOT, BUT  WILL OUR VIEWERS GET A BREAK FROM SCORCHING  TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 30 DAYS?  THANKS TEI I'LL ANSWER THAT WITH SAME AT TIMES AND IN PARTS  OF THE COUNTRY WESTERN SECTIONS SO I THINK THAT RIDGE IS GOING TO  HOLD FOR QUITE SOME TIME NOW YOU WILL NOTICE AS WE HEAD INTO THE  EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK IT DOES SHIFT EASTWARD FOR A WHILE ON  WEDNESDAY TROUGH STILL IN THE NORTHEAST TROUGH TRYING TO COME  INTO THE WEST BUT THEN THE RIDGE GOES BACK TO THE WEST AS WE  HEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A  BIGGER TROUGH KIND OF DIVING IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND FOR THE  NORTHEAST AND THE GREAT LAKES SO 30 DAY OUTLOOK FOR  TEMPERATURES GOING BELOW NORMAL FOR THE GREAT LAKES DOWN  THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PART OF THAT IS BECAUSE THE  RAINFALL KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN AND PART OF IT IS COOLER AIR  COMING IN OCCASIONALLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE NORTHEAST AND  EASTERN CANADA. MOST OF THE WEST UP AND DOWN THE MOUNTAIN  RANGES AIR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS FAR AS THE 30S OUTLOOK  FOR PRECIPITATION FROM MISSOURI TO EASTERN TEXAS TO THE SOUTHEAST  ABOVE NORMAL NORTHERN MINNESOTA BACK THROUGH THE NORTHWEST  EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL. THAT'S THE WAY THINGS LOOK TYNE.

FARM JOURNAL REPORT
THANKS, MIKE. WHILE LAND PRICES ARE SEEING PRESSURE IN MANY  AREAS, IN THE LONE-STAR STATE, LAND PRICES ARE  THRIVING.  THE LATEST DALLAS FEDERAL RESERVE REPORT  SHOWING RANCHLAND VALUES TRENDING HIGHER,  ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL TEXAS REGION WHERE  DEMAND FOR RETIREMENT OF HOBBY PROPERTY IS IN  HIGH DEMAND.  IN THIS FARM JOURNAL REPORT, I TRAVEL TO TEXAS TO  SEE WHY LAND IS SUCH A HOT COMMODITY.  STANDING ON THE BROWNING RANCH  JUST OUTSIDE  OF AUSTIN, TEXAS, KASEY MOCK SEES A RAPID  CHANGE. WHAT WAS ONCE A RURAL DESTINATION, IS  NOW ON THE EDGE OF SUBERBIA.   <THIS IS ONE OF THE FASTEST GROWING AREAS IN TEH COUNTRY. AND  THAT'S PUT A LOT OF PRESSURE ON US AS PRIVATE LAND OWNERS  BECAUSE AS RANCHERS AND FARMERS ARE TRYING TO HOLD ON TO THIS  PROEPRTY, WITH PROPERTY VALUES RAPIDLY EXPANDING, MAKES IT  HARDER TO KEEP LEASE GROUND, BUT ALSO VERY TEMPTING TO SELL  PROPERTY> IN 2016, FORBES NAMED AUSTIN THE FASTEST GROWING  CITY IN THE U.S. AND NUMBER THREE ON THAT LIST WAS  DALLAS. IT'S THE LOCATION MAKING THESE PARCELS OF  PROPERTY PRIME REAL ESTATE...  <WE'VE BOUGHT REAL ESTATE IN THIS AREA OVER THE LAST 3 YEARS FORA  S LITTLE AS $15,000 AND AS MUCH AS $30,000 AN ACRE FOR RAW  RANCHLAND.. UN IMPROVED PROPERTY> MOCK SAYS THAT' PRICE DOUBLED IN LESS THAN 10  YEARS. IT'S NOT JUST AUSTIN SEEING RAPID GROWTH.  OF AMERICA'S 100 LARGEST CITIES, 13 CALL TEXAS  HOME.  TEXAS FARM BUREAU PRESIDENT RUSSEL BOENING  FARMS 35 MILES SOUTH OF SAN ANTONIO... WHICH IS  THE COUNTRY'S SEVENTH MOST POPULOUS CITY.  <BUT WHEN YOU GET CLOSE TO SOME OF THOSE BIG CITIES, IT'S NOT JUST  THE PRICE OF HTE LAND, IT'S EVERYTHING ELSE, THAT COMES WITH IT,  MORE PEOPLE, WE'RE STANDING IN FRONT OF A HIGHWAY AND 4 VEHICLES  HAVE GONE BY. IF YOU'RE CLOSER TO HOUSTON OR SAN ANTONIO, IT WOULD  AHVE BEEN 40 TO 100 VEHICLES GOING BY> URBAN SPRAWL IS NOT ONLY MAKING IT HARD TO FARM,  BUT ULTIMTELY DRIVING SOME OUT OF BUSINESS. <THERE'S FEWER AND FEWER FULLTIME PRODUCERS IN MY AREA. FROM  WHERE WE'RE STANDING, 10 PRODUCERS HAVE GONE OUT OF BSUINESS  WITHIN 10 MILES OF HERE.  , TI'S CHANGED, IT'S CHANGED OUR AREA> <YOU ALSO SEE AFFLUENT, WEALTHY INDIVIDUALS WANTING A  RECREATIONAL PIECE OF PROPERTY WITHIN A COMMUTER DISTANCE OF  AUSTIN. SO THEY CAN OBVIOUSLY OUT COMPETE THE FARMERS AND  RANCHER FOR PRICE PER ACRE ON THIS RANCH, BECAUS IT DOESN'T HAVE  TO PENCIL OUT FOR THEM ON A PRODUCTIVE BASIS. > MOCK SAYS THEY'RE SEEING MORE LAND PUSHED OUT  OF PRODUCTION AGRIUCLTURE AND TURNED INTO  RECREATIONAL USE LIKE HUNTING.  < SO WE SEE LANDOWNERS ACTUALLY MAKING MORE MONEY IN SOME  CASES OFF OF HTE HUTNING INDUSTRY OR OTHER USES LIKE VINEYARDS  THAN THEY WOUDL RUNNING CATTLE>> IT'S THIS LAND THAT'S OFTEN A TEXAS LANDOWNERS'  MOST VALUABLE RESOURCE.  <MANY FARMERS AND RANCHERS, WHAT THEY HAVE AND WHAT THEY'VE  EARNED, THEY'VE INVESTED BACK IN LAND,. DIDN'T INVEST IN STOCK  MARKET, OR BOND, OR THINGS LIKE THAT, THEY'VE INVESTED BACK IN  LAND> IT'S NOT JUST TAX REFORM DRAWING LEGISLATIVE SCRUTINY. TEXAS FARM BUREAU SAYS PROPERTY  RIGHTS ARE ALSO A PAIN POINT FOR LAND OWNERS.  <WE NEED SOME EMINENT DOMAIN REFORM> EMINENT DOMAIN WAS TEXAS FARM BUREAU'S TOP  PRIORITY IN THIS YEAR'S TEXAS LEGISLATIVE SESSION,  AS THEY SAY BOTH GOVERNMENT AND PRIVATE  INTENTIES ARE THROWING OUT UNFAIR OFFERS TO  LAND OWNERS. <THE PRIORITY ISSUE THERE IS GET THE IF THEY LOSE IN COURT, IF THE  CONDEMING INTENTY LOSES IN COURT, THYE HAVE TO PAY YOUR ATTORNEY  FEES. NOW THEY HAVE TOLSOE BY MORE THAN 20 PERCENT.>' EMINENT DOMAIN REFORM DIDN'T SURVIVE THE  LEGISLATIVE SESSON, BUT BOENING SAYS THEY AREN'T  GIVING UP, AS IT COULD TAKE MULTIPLE YEARS TO  PASS.  IT'S FARMERS AND RANCHERS ALSO NOT GIVING UP.  WILLING TO CHANGE TO SURVIVE.    <EVERY YEAR WE SEE FEWER PRODUCERS, FEWER FARMRS AND RANCHERS  IN THIS CENTRAL TEXAS AREA DUE TO PROPERTY VALUES AND THE  DIFFICULTIES OF RUNNING AN AGRICULTURAL BUSINESS HERE. WE SEE THEM  SELLIGN PROPERTY, MOVING TO PLACES WHERE LAND IS MORE PRODUCTIVE  AND AT A CHEAPER VALUE>  DESPITE OBSTACLES,  IT'S THE DRIVE TO SURVIVE  THAT'S KEEPING MANY TEXAS FARMERS AND RANCHERS  AFLOAT.  THE ESTATE TAX IS ALSO A MAJOR ISSUE FOR TEXAS  LANDOWNERS. BOTH BOENING AND MOCK TOLD ME AS  LAND VALUES CONTINUE ON THEIR UPWARD TREND,  THE ESTATE TAX IS TURNING INTO AN EVEN BIGGER  BURDEN FOR MULTI-GENERATIONAL FARMS. 

TEASE
WHEN WE COME BACK, JOHN PHIPPS.  "WHAT'S REALLY UP WITH MANUFACTURING IN THE UNITED STATES."

CUSTOMER SUPPORT
WELCOME BACK, IT'S TIME NOW FOR CUSTOMER  SUPPORT. AND FOR THAT, WE HEAD TO JOHN'S FARM.  ROBERT BLAIN RAISES A POINT ABOUT MANUFACTURING IN THE US: "THE ZENITH OF AMERICAN MANUFACTURING MIGHT WAS THE MID-60'S.  WE'VE LOST 40% OF OUR MANUFACTURING JOBS SINCE 1979 AND NOW  WE ARE IN ONE HECK OF A JAM COMING UP WITH THE BUCKS TO FUND  MEDICAID. WHEN A COUNTRY LOSES A BIG CHUNK OF ITS  MANUFACTURING BACKBONE, THE ABILITY OF GOVERNMENT, BUSINESSES,  AND FAMILIES TO SUPPORT THEMSELVES IS SEVERELY UNDERMINED. CHINA GREW ITS INDUSTRIAL BASE (THE PRIMARY RECIPIENT OF THE US  INDUSTRIAL FLIGHT OVERSEAS) AND IS NOW THE #2 ECONOMY IN THE  WORLD." THANKS FOR THE COMMENT, ROBERT. WHEN DISCUSSING THE  MANUFACTURING SECTOR OF OUR ECONOMY, IT IS IMPORTANT TO  DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN OUTPUT AND EMPLOYMENT. THIS CHART  ILLUSTRATES MY POINT. JOBS ARE IN RED, OUTPUT IN BLUE. WHEN PEOPLE  WORRY ABOUT THE DECLINE OF MANUFACTURING IN THE US, THEY ARE  USUALLY TALKING ABOUT JOBS, WHICH HAVE DECLINED SHARPLY.  HOWEVER, AT THE SAME TIME, MANUFACTURING OUTPUT HAS STEADILY  INCREASED TO A NEW RECORD LEVEL. EVEN WITH THE RECESSION, YOU  CAN SEE OUR MANUFACTURING SECTOR IS NOT FLOUNDERING, BUT IT  SIMPLY EMPLOYS MANY FEWER PEOPLE. THIS IS THE PRODUCTIVITY  CURSE, AND IT IS BEING VIGOROUSLY DEBATED BY ECONOMISTS RIGHT  NOW. CERTAINLY, AUTOMATION AND ROBOTS ARE A BIG FACTOR, BUT ALSO  THE US IS MOVING TOWARD HIGHER END PRODUCTS - INSTEAD OF STEEL  RAILS, WE'RE MAKING SMALLER AMOUNTS OF EXPENSIVE ALLOYS FOR  SPECIFIC USES. THIS CALLS FOR A SMALLER, BUT MORE HIGHLY SKILLED  WORKFORCE. CHINA HAS BEEN ON A TEAR IN MANUFACTURING GROWTH, BUT THEY ARE  ALSO THE BIGGEST ENGINE OF DEMAND FOR THOSE PRODUCTS: STEEL,  CARS, EQUIPMENT. THIS CHART IS OLD, BUT THE TREND REMAINS IN  PLACE. FINALLY, MANUFACTURING IS NOT A UNIQUE FACTOR WHEN  FUNDING MEDICAID. MEDICAID DOLLARS - INDEED ALL GOVERNMENT  REVENUE -  ARE DEPENDENT ON ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ACROSS ALL  SECTORS. THE PROFITS AND WAGES FROM THE SERVICE SECTOR PAY THE  SAME TAXES AS THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR. OUR FUTURE DOES NOT  HINGE SOLELY ON FACTORY JOBS. MORE IMPORTANTLY, AS YOU CAN SEE  HERE, SERVICE SECTOR JOBS ON AVERAGE NOW PAY BETTER THAN  MANUFACTURING JOBS.  I'LL TALK MORE ABOUT OUR FIXATION ON FACTORY  JOBS NEXT WEEK.

TEASE
THANKS, JOHN. IF YOU HAVE A QUESTION FOR JOHN BEFORE NEXT WEE,  EMAIL HIM AT MAILBAG AT U-S FARM REPORT DOT COM.  STIL TO COME, IT'S A KENTUCKY BARN WITH RICH HISTORY.  

KENTUCKY TOBACCO BARN
TOBACCO IS A STAPLE OF KENTUCKY'S RICH  AGRICULTURAL HISTORY. AND IT'S TOBACCO BARNS THAT STILL PAINT THE  COUNTRYSIDE IN THE BLUEGRASS STATE. SOME ARE  NEW, SOME ARE OLD, BUT EACH HAS A STORY TO TELL.  PERCHED ON GROUND JUST SOUTHEAST OF HOPKINSVILLE KENTUCKY STEVE BOLINGER IS PRESERVING A PIECE OF HIS FAMILY'S HISTORY. THIS IS ALL DARKFIRED BARN THAT WAS BUILT BACK IN THE 50S AND 60S AND IT WAS USED FOR DOG FARM PRODUCTION. NOW WE USE IT FOR BARLEY SO IT'S STILL IN USE HERE EVERY YEAR BUILT BY HIS GRANDFATHER.  THIS BARNS ROOTS ARE IN DARK FIRING TOBACCO A PROCESS WITH SPECIFIC NEEDS FOR DARK FARM PRODUCTION.  YOU HAVE TO HAVE A LOT TIGHTER BONDS BONDS. THE ELDERS GET A LITTLE MORE A LITTLE LOOSER IF YOU PLANKS MISION BUT FOR BURLING YOU WANT AIR VENTILATION VENTILATION OBVIOUSLY VENTILATION AND TOM'S GOT DOWN TO CUTS ON THE SIDES SO IT'S JUST MADE FOR AN HOUR AND A CURE HAS TO CURE ERRICKER THAT A 70 PERCENT OF THE NATION'S BIRLEY TOBACCO IS KENTUCKY GROWN BORED IN THE U.S. IN THE 1800S. IT'S A PIECE OF AMERICAN HISTORY BOLINGER KEEPS ALIVE EACH YEAR AND MOST TIME WILL CUT AUGUST AND WILL. WILL IT WORK. ILL GRAB PROBABLY BY NOVEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER THINGS STARTED TAKING THIS STRIP. WHAT ABOUT SIX PLANTS FIVE TO SIX POINTS PER STICK. AND YOU PUT THEM AWAY AGAIN AND YOU PAINT THEM ALL AND YOU'LL MISTAKE ACTUALLY HANGING BETWEEN. SO THAT'S WHY RAISING BERLEY AND DARK FIRED TOBACCO TAKE TIME BUT IT'S DARK. FIRE CURE OR TOBACCO THAT'S MORE OF AN ART GIVING THE TOBACCO A DESIRED SMOKY FLAVOR AND THE DARK FIRE PROCESS IS TOTALLY DIFFERENT. DARK HARD TO CUT IT AND LET IT WILT YOU HANGING IN THE BARN YOU'LL PACK SLABS. YES LAUGH FROM A SONG MADE BY SCHOOLIE YOU PUT SLABS DOWN AND YOU PASS OUT JUST PROBABLY NEED TO. A LOT. SEVERAL FIRES PREUX AND THEY WOULD LET SMOKE AND SMOKE FOR WICKETT TOO. THEN YOU DO IT AGAIN FOR ABOUT TWO OR THREE DIFFERENT TIMES AND IT PUTS A FINISH OF SLICK LOOKING SHINE ON IT AND HATE IT CURES IT. IT'S MORE OF A HATE CURED TOBACCO VERSUS ERRICKER BOLINGER SAYS THE ART COMES FROM THE FLAMES IF IT'S TOO HOT.  THE PROCESS CAN RUIN THE TOBACCO BUT IF IT'S TOO COOL THE CROP WILL ROT FOR THIS MESS AND PEOPLE COME ABBASID YOUR BONGS ON FIRE BECAUSE YOU SEE SMOKE COMING OUT OF THE EAVES AND THEY'RE FINE AND IT'S NOT FROM THIS AREA THOUGH. IT'S LIKE IT'S JUST ON FIRE AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT'S ON FIRE BOLINGER SAYS DARK FIRING TOBACCO.  IS IT EASY. OVER THE YEARS. TOO MUCH AIR CREPT INTO HIS BARN IT CAUSED UNCONTROLLABLE FIRES AS A RESULT HE LOST THREE BARNS FROM FIRE. OVER THE YEARS THAT'S WHY NEWER BARNS ARE MADE OF METAL AND BUILT TIGHT WHERE LITTLE AIR CAN GET IN. WITH EIGHT BARNS IN USE TODAY HE SAYS EACH STRUCTURE GETS USED TO ITS FULLEST CAPACITY.  IF YOU'RE PUTTING DARK FIRE IN THE BONE IT'LL PROBABLY HOLD PROBABLY TWO AND HALF THREE ACRES MAYBE MAX BARLEY PROBABLY HELD IN HALF AND BURNING YOU SPREAD A LITTLE BIT FURTHER AND GET INTO HERE DARK FIRE YOU GETS EIGHT INCHES PROBABLY BECAUSE YOU'VE GOT HEAT KEEP IT FROM ROT AND NO MATTER WHAT TYPE OF CURING PROCESS HE'S USING.  BOLINGER SAYS EACH OF HIS OLD BONDS REQUIRE A LITTLE TLC. HAVE TO PUT SOME POST IN IT AND PUT SOME TRIPOS YOU HANGING THAT BACK ON IN DIFFERENT TIMES BUT IT'S IT'S. IT'S OLD MOLAR. AND BOLINGER HOPES IT'S THESE AGENE TIMBERS OF HIS KENTUCKY TOBACCO BARN THAT CONTINUE TO PLAY A ROLE IN THIS FAMILY STORY FOR GENERATIONS TO COME.

TEASE
WELL, FROM KENTUCKY BARNS TO KENTUCKY  TRACTORS, TRACTORS TALES IS NEXT. 

TRACTOR TALES
TRACTOR TALES BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE MOST  TRUSTED NAME IN FARM EQUIPMENT, MACHINERY  PETE!. WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES.  WE DECIDED TO GIVE GREG A LITTLE  BREAK THIS WEEK AND SHOW OFF SOME PHOTOS FROM OUR FACEBOOK  FRIENDS.  THESE PHOTOS WERE TAKEN BY NORM CROWE OF MT.  WASHINGTON, KENTUCKY.  YOU CAN SEE HIS WIFE KATHY ON THIS  1969 FARMALL 656.  IT WAS PURCHASED BRAND NEW BY HER FATHER IN  1970.  TRAGICALLY, KATHY LOST HER FATHER SHORTLY AFTER THIS TRACTOR  WAS PURCHASED.  THE FAMILY SOLD THE TRACTOR TO A LOCAL FARMER  WHERE IT STAYED FOR NEARLY 40 YEARS.  NORM BOUGHT THE TRACTOR  BACK AND FIXED IT UP FOR HIS WIFE.  HE TOLD US HE DID ALL THE WORK  ON HIS OWN.  LOOKS LIKE A GREAT TRACTOR.  WE HOPE YOU AND KATHY  ENJOY HAVING IT AROUND.  THANK YOU FOR SHARING YOUR STORY WITH  US.

COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE
AND OUR COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE THIS WEEKEND IS  IN RURAL IOWA.  TEH ST PAUL LUTHERN CHURCH IN BATTLE CREEK IOWA  IS CELEBRATING ITS 125TH ANNIVERSARY THIS MONTH.  STARTED BY GERMAN IMMIGRANTS, TODAY ITS NESTLED  BETWEEN FIVE SMALL IOWA TOWNS.  OUR THANKS TO SHARON HAMANN FOR SHARING THEIR STORY! AS ALWAYS WE WANT TO LEARN ABOUT YOUR HOME  CHURCH AS WELL... SALUTES CAN BE SENT TO THE  ADDRESS ON THE SCREEN.  STAY WITH US - CROPWACH  IS NEXT.

FROM THE FARM
WELCOME BACK THIS WEEKEND WE'LL HAVE YOUR FANS OF US ON FACEBOOK. YOU KNOW THAT EACH MONTH WE HAVE A COVER PHOTO CONTEST AND THE WINNING PICTURE RECEIVES A FREE US FARM REPORT. I MEAN WHO WOULDN'T WANT ONE OF THOSE. THAT'S RIGHT. THIS MONTH BROOKS FROM TOOK THE WINNING PHOTO AND MITCHELL COUNTY IOWA. CONGRATULATIONS BROOKE I REALLY LIKE THAT PICTURE. AND SARAH SLAP THIS PICTURE OF THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM IN NASHVILLE ILLINOIS LAST WEEK THAT HER HUSBAND AND GRANDSON SHE SAYS NEEDLESS TO SAY WHEAT HARVEST WAS PUT ON HOLD FOR A FEW DAYS. I WOULD SAY SO AND MY FRIEND CHUCK WELDON SENT US AN AERIAL VIEW OF HIS CROP. AFTER 11 INCHES OF RAIN IN JUST A MATTER OF HOURS. MIKE THIS IS THE AFTERMATH FROM LAST WEEK. FLOODED FIELDS AND HEARTBREAK. YOU KNOW IT WAS TOUGH TO SEE. SO TOUGH TO SEE AND WE'VE SEEN SOME THAT HAVE HAD TOO MUCH RAIN. BUT OTHERS SAY YOU KNOW RIGHT NOW WE COULD REALLY USE A DRINK. WHERE'S THAT MOISTURE PAINTING NOW IT'S HIT AND MISS LIKE OUR HOUSE GOT TWO INCHES IN AN HOUR AND WE HAD WATER IN THE BASEMENT WHILE THE SURROUNDING AREAS DIDN'T GET ANY. I HAD NONE. I HAD. JUST A LITTLE WAYS DOWN THE ROAD.

CLOSE
WELL IF YOU HAVE A PICTURE OR VIDEO THAT YOU WOULD LIKE TO SEND IN YOU CAN DO THAT TO THE ADDRESS ON THE SCREEN. AND FROM ALL OF US AT U.S. FARM REPORT THANK YOU FOR WATCHING. BE SURE TO JOIN US AGAIN RIGHT HERE NEXT WEEK AS WE WORK TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND EVERYONE.

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