USFR Weekly Recap - June 13, 2015, 2014, 2015, 2015

June 13, 2015 03:30 AM
 

TODAY ON USFR
JUNE 13-14, 2015

HEADLINES:
WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M TYNE MORGAN, AND HERE'S WHAT WE'RE WORKING ON FOR YOU THIS WEEKEND. PREPARING FOR P-E-D AND MORE...OUR FARM JOURNAL REPORT EXPLORES WHY PORK PRODUCERS SHOULD BE ON ALERT, AND HOW NEW ANTIOBOTIC RULES COULD THEIR PRODUCERS' BOTTOMLINE. PRESSURE ON PRICES... USDA'S LATEST WASDE REPORT SENT GRAINS IN THE RED, BUT OUR ANALYSTS SAY IT'S ANOTHER BIG REPORT IN JUNE THAT COULD BE EVEN MORE OF A MARKET MOVER, AND IN JOHN'S WORLD...
WASDE WHEAT:
THE ONE SURPRISE IN THE REPORT A BUMP IN THE WINTER WHEAT CROP. USDA THINKS WINTER WHEAT WILL HIT JUST OVER 2 BILLION BUSHELS THIS YEAR, A 34 MILLION BUSHEL INCREASE FROM THE LAST REPORT. PROFARMER EDITOR BRIAN GRETE TELLS US USDA SEES STRONGER CONDITIONS IN THE PLAINS FOLLOWING LATE SEASON RAINS.
WASDE MEAT:
USDA THINKS WE'LL SEE A WEAKER MEAT PRODUCTION NUMBER THIS YEAR. WE'VE BEEN DISCUSSING IMPROVED PASTURE CONDITOINS AND HOW THAT COULD ENTICE RANCHERS TO RETAIN MORE HEIFFERS. USDA SAYS WE SAW LOWER FED CATTLE SLAUGHTER NUMBERS ALREADY THIS YEAR. MOVING FORWARD, THEY EXPECT REDUCED COW SLAUGHTER NUMBERS THIS SUMMER AND FALL. MEANWHILE, USDA SAYS THE PORK INDUSTRY IS SEEING HEAVIER SLAUGHTER NUMBERS. SO THE AGENCY RAISED PORK PRODUCTION FOR 2015.
CHINA RESERVES:
NEWS OUT OF CHINA SENT COTTON FUTURES TUMBLING MORE THAN A DOLLAR THURSDAY.
CHINESE OFFICIALS SAID IT WILL START RELEASING COTTON THIS YEAR FROM ITS MASSIVE RESERVES. RUETERS REPORTS MORE THAN 40 PERCENT OF THE WORLD'S COTTON STOCKS ARE IN CHINA.
MONSYN:
MONSANTO IS GETTING AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS EFFORTS TO BUY SYNGENTA. AFTER TWO FAILED ATTEMPTS, THE COMPANY IS NOW BYPASSING SYNGENTA'S BOARD AND GOING STRAIGHT TO SHAREHOLDERS. THE WALL STREET JOURNAL REPORTS THAT MONSANTO'S EXECUTIVES ARE TALKING TO ANYONE AT SYNGENTA WHO WILL LISTEN. AND RIGHT NOW, THAT'S THEIR SHAREHOLDERS. MONSANATO ALREADY SAID IT PLANS TO DIVEST SYNGENTA'S SEED BUSINESS AND ANY PORTION OF SYNGENTA'S CHEMICAL BUSINESS THAT OVERLAPS WITH MONSANTO'S CURRENT PRODUCT LINE.
JOHN’S WORLD:
LAST WEEK AN ANNUAL RITUAL OF THE AG MEDIA PLAYED OUT PREDICTABLY. THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE OF THE USDA RELEASED THE SHARE-OF-THE-FOOD-DOLLAR GRAPH. I COULD NOT FIND ANY OF THE AG MEDIA COVERAGE THAT DID NOT USE A MODIFIER LIKE "ONLY" OR "JUST" WHEN NOTING THE SHARE FARMERS RECEIVE. HERE IS THE NOW-FAMILIAR GRAPHIC: A DOLLAR BILL SLICED UP INTO INDUSTRY SHARES. THERE ARE TWO VERSIONS: ONE SHOWING FARM SALES AS A SHARE OF THE FOOD DOLLAR; THE OTHER SHOWING FARM COSTS AS A SHARE OF TOTAL FOOD COSTS.  FARMERS ARE INSTINCTIVELY SUSPICIOUS THEIR SLICE IS TOO SMALL. BUT SINCE THIS REPORT WAS STARTED IN 1993, NEITHER OF THESE MEASURES HAS VARIED THAT MUCH. LET'S LOOK AT THEM OVER TIME. OUR SALES SHARES AVERAGED 16.7 CENTS; COSTS AVERAGED 8.7 CENTS. THE MOST RECENT NUMBERS FOR 2013 - 17.4 AND 10.5 DO SHOW COSTS INCHING UPWARDS. AT ANY RATE, IT IS HARD TO DRAW ANY CONCLUSIONS ABOUT ECONOMIC FAIRNESS FROM THESE CHOPPED UP DOLLARS. TO BEGIN WITH, SINCE THEY DEPICT THE WHOLE AG SECTOR, VARIOUS SUBSECTORS LIKE MEATS COULD BE DOING GREAT WHILE GRAINS SUFFER, AND VICE VERSA. CUROUSLY TOO, THIS ANNUAL DEPICTION SHOWS THAT FARM PRICES DON'T HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON FOOD PRICES. BUT THE BIGGER QUESTION IS IF 17.4¢ WILL SUPPLY ALL THE COMMODITIES WE NEED AND THEN SOME - WHY SHOULD THE MARKET PAY MORE? KEEP IN MIND TOO THAT TOTAL FOOD DOLLARS ARE RISING BY ABOUT TWO PERCENT A YEAR. IN MY OPINION, THE PERSISTENT USE OF "ONLY" AND "JUST" WITH THESE DATA ATTEMPTS TO PORTRAY PRODUCERS AS VICTIMS, WHICH WE ARE NOT. IT ALSO DOWNPLAYS THE FACT THAT A GREAT DEAL OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IS REQUIRED TO TURN #2 CORN INTO SOMETHING YOU ORDER AT APPLEBEE'S OR BUY IN THE GROCERY STORE. OUR SHARE OF THE FOOD DOLLAR IS WHAT IT IS. THERE IS NO RIGHT NUMBER. IT APPEARS TO BE REMARKABLY STABLE, AND APPARENTLY IS SUFFICIENT TO MAKE OUR FARMERS WANT TO PRODUCE AND OUR SYSTEM TO WORK PRETTY WELL.
TAG& CLOSE:
THANKS, JOHN. STILL TO COME, AFTER P-E-D HIT THE SWINE INDUSTRY, EYES WERE OPENED ABOUT JUST HOW MUCH DAMAGE ONE DISEASE CAN DO. SO, WHAT DISEASE COULD BE NEXT? WE'LL TRY TO ANSWER THAT VERY QUESTION AFTER THE BREAK.
HEADLINES:
WE HAVE MUCH MORE AHEAD THIS WEEKEND ON U-S FARM REPORT. PREPARING FOR THE UNKNOWN... OUR FARM JOURNAL REPORT SHOWS US WHAT POSSIBLE DISEASES THE PORK INDUSTRY IS MOST WORRIED ABOUT. AND HOW NEW ANTIOBIOTIC RULES WILL IMPACT PRODUCERS. IN CUSTOMER SUPPORT, JOHN ISN'T THE ONLY ONE WITH A SOMBER AG OUTLOOK. A VIEWER'S COMMENT IS ENOUGH TO MAKE JOHN GIVE HIS THOUGHTS AGAIN ON THE UNCERTAIN FUTURE IN AGRICULTURE. AND IN BAXTER BLACK, SOME OF THE MOST COMMON ANIMAL TERMINOLIGY IS ACTUALLY OFFENSIVE. HE GIVES US SOME INTERESTING INSIGHT THS WEEKEND.
EL NINO:
NOW FOR THE NEWS, AS RECENT RAINS SPUR MORE DROUGHT RELIEF, METEOROLOGISTS SAY YOU CAN PARTIALLY THANK EL NINO FOR THAT. AND NOW THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE THINKS IT'S STICKING AROUND THROUGH WINTER.
 IMPORTING EGGS:
WHILE CONSUMERS ARE SEEING EGG PRICES TRIPLE IN SOME AREAS FROM AVIAN FLU, BAKERS AND OTHERS WHO USE EGGS COMMERCIALLY ARE SEEING A SHORTAGE.
USDA HAS A SHORT-TERM FIX.... IMPORTING EGGS USDA IS LOOKING TO THE NETHERLANDS TIO FILL THE GAP, MAKING IT THE FIRST TIME IN MORE THAN A DECADE THAT THE U-S HAS BOUGHT EGGS FROM THE E-U.THIS IS NOT SHELL EGGS, ONLY FURTHER PROCESSED EGGS, WHICH ARE LIQUID, DRIED OR FROZEN EGG PRODUCTS. THE HARDEST HIT STATE IS IOWA, WHERE IT COULD TAKE MONTHS FOR FARMERS TO RECOVER AND REPOPULATE.
POULTRY FORECAST:
 THE BIGGER CONCERN IN THE COUNTRY'S MASSIVE AVIAN FLU OUTBREAK IS THE LONG-TERM BLOW TO TRADE.  RABO AGRIFINANCE RELEASED ITS SECOND QUARTER POULTRY UPDATE AND OUTLOOK.  ECONOMIST SAYS IT'S THE TRADE BANS ON BREEDING STOCK THAT HAS THEM WORRIED.  BUT CURRENTLY, IT'S A TOUGH TIME FOR POULTRY PRODUCERS. NOT ONLY ARE THEY DEALING WITH RESTRICTIONS ON TRADE, BUT THE STRONG U-S DOLLAR IS CREATING STRONGER THAN EXPECTED FEED PRICES AND INCREASED COMPETITION FROM WEAKER PORK PRICES.    
COOL VOTE:
ANOTHER FACTOR HANGING OVER FUTURE TRADE IS RETALIATION TO THE U-S MANDATORY COUNTRY OF ORIGIN LABELING RULE.  BUT THERE'S AN EFFORT IN CONGRESS TO REPEAL THE RULE, AND JUST THIS WEEK THE HOUSE PASSED THE MEASURE. NOW, IT'S ON TO THE SENATE. THIS COMES AS THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION ISSUED ITS FINAL RULING, SAYING COOL UNFAIRLY DISCRIMINATES AGAINST LIVESTOCK IMPORTS FROM CANADA AND MEXICO. THOSE TWO COUNTRIES ALREADY SAID THEY WILL SEEK 3 POINT 6 BILLION DOLLARS IN RETALIATORY TARIFFS.
WOTUS:
AND OVER IN THE SENATE, A COMMITTEE APPROVED A MEASURE TO BLOCK EPA'S RECENT WATERS OF THE U-S RULE AND REWRITE IT. THE SENATE ENVIRONMENT AND PUBLIC WORKS COMMITTEE VOTED ON THE LEGISLATION WEDNESDAY. EPA SAYS THE CELAN WATER ACT WILL PROTECT THE WATERS FROM POLLUTION WHICH ALSO SUPPLIES DRINKING WATER FOR 117 MILLION AMERICANS.
BUT SOME REPUBLICANS IN CONGRESS SAY EPA HAS GONE TOO FAR, AND IT'S A POWER GRAB.
UNDERCOVER DAIRY:
AN UNDERCOVER VIDEO SHOWING ANIMAL ABUSE HAS SURFACED OUT OF COLORADO. AND THE FARM OWNERS AND THEIR COOP, DAIRY FARMERS OF AMERICA, ARE TAKING AN UNUSUAL APPROACH TO ADDRESS IT... RELEASING THE VIDEO THE ALLEGED INCIDENT OCCURRED AT CACTUS ACRES HOLSTEINS IN FORT MORGAN, COLORADO. THE VIDEO SHOWS DAIRY COWS GETTING PUNCHED AND KICKED BY WORKERS.  D-F-A SAYS THE WORKER THAT FILMED THE VIDEO OVER A 2 MONTH PERIOD WAS WORKING UNDERCOVER FOR THE ANIMAL ACTIVIST GROUP "MERCY FOR ANIMALS". THE FARM OWNERS SAY THEY BELIEVE INCIDENTS LIKE THIS SHOULD BE "REPORTED, NOT RECORDED". AND THAT'S WHY IT RELEASED THE FOOTAGE. THEY SAY THAT BEHAVIOR ISN'T TOLERATED AND THE EMPLOYEES IN THE VIDEO WERE FIRED AND FACE CRIMINAL CHARGES.
NO SHOWERS:
A GROUP IN CALIFORNIA IS TAKING AN UNUSUAL STEP TO SAVE WATER WHILE NOT GIVING UP EATING BEEF...THEY'RE SIMPLY SKIPPING OUT ON SHOWERS, TO MAKE UP FOR THEIR BEEF INTAKE. IT'S CALLED SKIP SHOWERS FOR BEEF, A GRASROOTS MOVEMENT BY CONSUMERS WORRIED ABOUT THE FUTURE IMPACTS OF THE DROUGHT. THEY SAY IF SOMEONE STILL WANTS TO EAT MEAT, THEN A REDUCTION OF 55 SHOWERS WILL OFFSET THE WATER FOR ONE QUARTER POUND BURGER.
WEATHER PITCH:
THAT'S IT FOR NEWS...METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH THE NATIONAL FORECAST. NOT SHOWERING FOR 55 DAYS... MIKE, PLEASE TELL ME EL NINO WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO CALIFORNIA.
FARM  JOURNAL REPORT TAG:
THANKS, BETSY. WHILE THE P-E-D FRONT HAS GONE RATHER QUIET, NEW CASES ARE BEING REPORTED EACH WEEK. APHIS SHOWS 9 NEW CASES DURING THE LAST WEEK OF MAY. UP NEXT, WE'RE OFF TO JOHN'S FARM.
CUSTOMER SUPPORT:
THERE'S A SOBERING TONE ACROSS MUCH OF AGRICULTURE, AND IT'S ONE JOHN'S ADDRESSED. AND HE'S BACK AGAIN THIS WEEK WITH A VIEWER'S CONCERN ON THE TOPIC. JOHN.
LEAGACY TEASE:
 NEXT WEEK...IT'S OUR MONTHLY LEAVE A LEGACY SPECIAL.  CLINTON GRIFFITHS TAKES US TO NORTH CAROLINA TO MEET A DIVERSIFIED FARMING FAMILY WITH THREE GENERATIONS NOW WORKING TO BUILD THE BUSINESS OF FUTURE...WHEN WE COME BACK, AL PELL JOINS US WITH THIS WEEK'S TRACTOR AND CHURCH.
 TRACTOR TALES:
THANKS, TYNE, WE'VE GOT A 1967 JOHN DEERE 2030. THIS TRACTOR WORKED IN THE ORANGE GROVES IN FLORIDA AND HAS BEEN IN THE FAMILY FROM THE BEGINNING. TODAY THE 'PUTT, PUTT' OF THIS JOHN DEERE IS HEARD IN PARADES AND TRACTOR SHOWS.
CHURCH SALUTE:
TODAY'S COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE GOES TO ST BONIFACE CHURCH IN FULDA, INDIANA. JUST LAST WEEKEND, THE CONGREGATION CELEBRATED THEIR 150TH ANNIVERSARY. THEIR OLD CHURCH BUILDING IS REGISTERED ON THE LIST OF NATIONAL HISTORIC PLACES. THE CHURCH KEEPS IN SUCH PRIME CONDITION, THANKS TO HELP FROM THE COMMUNITY TO MAINTAIN IT. OUR THANKS TO KASEY WAGNER FOR SHARING THEIR STORY, AND CONGRATULATIONS ON 150 YEARS…
CLOSE:
FOR JOHN, AL AND MIKE, I'M TYNE MORGAN. THANK YOU FOR WATCHING U-S FARM REPORT. BE SURE TO JOIN US RIGHT HERE AGAIN NEXT WEEK, AS WE WORK TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND, EVERYONE.

 

 

 

 

 

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