USFR Weekly Recap - Nov. 14-15, 2015

November 23, 2014 03:30 AM
 

TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
NOVEMBER 14, 2015

OPENING HEADLINES:
FROM THE STUDIOS OF FARM JOURNAL BROADCAST, THIS IS U.S. FARM REPORT.  WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M TYNE MORGAN, AND HERE'S WHAT WE'RE WORKING ON FOR YOU THIS WEEKEND...
ANOTHER SHOCKER- USDA DIDN'T SPARE FARMERS FROM SURPRISES OR PRICE DROPS IN ITS LATEST USDA REPORT. OUR ANALYSTS TELL US WHERE WE GO FROM HERE.
STOCK UP ON ORANGE JUICE-- WE'LL TELL YOU WHY ONE DISEASE IS TAKING A BIGGER BITE OUT OF ORANGE PRODUCTION THAT EXPECTED. 
KEEPING AVIAN FLU AT BAY...
THIS IS BASICALLY THE BIRTHPLACE OF COMMERCIAL OPERATIONS SO IT'S KIND OF ONE OF THE OLDEST AREAS.>
WE'RE OFF TO THE EAST COAST WHERE BEEFING UP BIOSECURITY IS ONE PRODUCERS' DEFENSE AGAINST THE DEADLY DISEASE. 
AND IN JOHN'S WORLD... TIME TO GO VIDEO A VIDEO WITH ANIMAL WELFARE PEOPLE>
USDA CROP REPORT:
NOW FOR THE MARKET RELATED NEWS, USDA'S LATEST CROP REPORT SENT BEARISH REACTIONS RIPPLING THROUGH THE COMMODITY MARKETS THIS WEEK AS THE AGENCY RAISED A FEW KEY NUMBERS MORE THAN EXPECTED. 
USDA RAISED BOTH THE CORN AND SOYBEAN YIELD BY MORE THAN A BUSHEL THIS TIME.
THE AGENCY BUMPING THE CORN YIELD TO 169 POINT 3 BUSHELS PER ACRE AND SOYBEANS 48 POINT 3.  
PROFARMER EDITOR BRIAN GRETE SAYS THESE INCREASES WERE A BIT OF A SURPRISE.  
<WELL USDA WAS EXPECTED TO FINE TUNE ITS CROP ESTIMATES UP A LITTLE BIT ON CORN AND UP A LITTLE BIT ON SOYBEANS AND ALSO RAISE ITS CARRYOVER ESTIMATES FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS AND WHEAT THIS MONTH, AND INSTEAD, USDA CAME WITH MUCH BIGGER ESTIMATES THAN ANTICIPATED AND MUCH BIGGER INCREASES IN CARRYOVER FOR CORN SOYBEANS AND WHEAT AND THE NET RESULT NOW IS HEAVY PRICE PRESSURE AFTER THE REPORT. > 
MEANWHILE, USDA'S ADJUSTMENT TO COTTON PRODUCTION TRIGGERED A BULLISH REACTION. THE AGENCY FORECASTS YIELD AT 782 POUNDS PER ACRE, WHICH IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE. THAT PUTS TOTAL PRODUCTION ALMOST 20 PERCENT BELOW LAST YEAR'S FINAL NUMBERS.
THE BIGGEST CHANGE COMES TO THE U-S ORANGE PRODUCTION, WITH USDA FORECASTING THE SMALLEST CROP SINCE THE 1940S.   USDA THINKS THE ALL ORANGE CROP FOR THE 2015 TO 2016 YEAR WILL DROP 14 PERCENT FROM LAST YEAR. 
THE BIGGEST CUT IS TO FLORIDA'S NUMBERS, WHERE THE STATE CONTINUES TO BATTLE THE DEVESTATING DISEASE CALLED CITRUS GREENING.
THE MOST PESSIMISTIC LONG-TERM SCENARIO COMES FROM A STUDY BY THE FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF CITRUS QUESTIONING WHETHER THE INDUSTRY CAN SURVIVE.
THEIR FORECAST SHOWS PRODUCTION WILL HIT 74 MILLION BOXES NEXT YEAR,BUT WORRIED THAT NUMBER COULD FALL TO 27 MILLION BY 2026. 
USDA'S REPORT THIS WEEK SENT ORANGE JUICE FUTURES SKYROCKETING TO THE HIGHEST POINT IN 16 MONTHS, WITH A 16 DOLLAR INCREASE JUST THIS WEEK.   IT WAS THE OPPOSITE REACTION IN THE LIVESTOCK MARKETS WITH USDA'S REPORT TRIGGERING LIMIT DOWN MOVES. USDA SAYS BEEF PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED TO CLIMB NEARLY 5 PERCENT IN 2016...TO 24 POINT 91 BILLION POUNDS. THAT NEWS PUSHING LIVE CATTLE FUTURES FOR DECEMBER TO FRESH LOWS---  DOWN TO 128 PER HUNDRED TUESDAY...BEFORE SEEING A REBOUND WEDNESDAY.
PROFIT TRACKER:
MEANWHILE, THE LATEST STERLING PROFIT TRACKER SHOWS CATTLE FEEDING MARKGINS GETTING EVEN TIGHTER, WITH FEEDYARD MANAGERS STARTING AT LOSSES IN EXCESS OF 486 DOLLARS PER HEAD. 
TURNING OUR ATTENTION TO SOUTH AMERICA, PLANTING CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING. RECENT RAINS EVEN ENDING A VERY SERIOUS HEAT WAVE IN BRAZIL.
USDA METEOROLGIST MARK BRUSBERG SAYS EL NINO USUALLY MEANS GOOD NEWS FOR SOUTH AMERICAN FARMERS. 
<DURING AN EL NINO IF YOU LOOK BACK HISTORICALLY, YOU DO SEE A VERY STRONG YIELDS AND THEREFORE VERY STRONG PRODUCTION TOO. IF HISTORY IS CORRECT, THEN WE COULD SEE TWO BACK TO BACK BUMPER CROPS, WHICH IS GOING TO MEAN THERE'S GOING TO BE A LOT OF SOYBEANS AND CORN ON THE MARKET A YEAR FROM NOW.>  BRUSBERG SAYS IT LOOKS LIKE GROWERS HAVE ADEQUATE MOISTURE DOING INTO PLANTING SEASON.  
NATIONAL WEATHER:
  THOSE ARE THE HEADLINES...METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH WEATHER. MIKE, FROM SNOW TO TORNADOES, IT WAS A WILD WEATHER WEEK.  
BOY YOU'RE ABSOLUTELY RIGHT TYNE AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE ANOTHER PRETTY POWERFUL STORM COMING ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS WEEK. WE'LL  HOW THAT TO YOU COMING UP, IN THE MEANTIME DROUGHT MONITOR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE WORST AREAS AS HAS BEEN THE CASE, ALL GROWING SEASON OUT WEST. CALIFORNIA, NEVADA, THE WORST AREAS. IT'S ACTUALLY IMPROVED SLIGHTLY IN WASHINGTON AND OREGON. AND YOU'RE GOING TO IMPROVE A LITTLE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS WEEK BUT MODERATE DROUGHT  ONLY SPOTTY ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. ALRIGHT LET'S GO DAY BY DAY AS WE START THE WEEK ON MONDAY, IT'S LOOKING LIKE A WET AREA ALREADY REALLY THROUGH THE MISSOURI VALLEY STARTING IN TEXAS ALL THE WAY UP INTO MISSOURI, SOUTHEASTERN IOWA. STORM SYSTEM KIND OF DOUBLE BARREL HERE COMING IN. THIS IS GOING TO  BE THE MAIN POCKET OF ENERGY SNOW ON THE NORTHSIDE OF THAT ESPECIALLY HIGHER ELEVATION. RAIN ALL THE WAY DOWN SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT LEAST SOME REAS. AND THEN YOU CAN SEE SOME SCATTERED  SHOWERS AND STORMS OTHERWISE. KIND OF  COOL IN THE EAST BUT HIGH PRESSURE GIVING YOU A DECENT DAY. BY WEDSENDAY IT REALLY COMES TO TOGETHER  A BIG WRAPPED DUP STORM SYSTEM OVER  THE  MIDDLE OF  THE COUNTRY. LOTS OF RAIN UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN  GREAT TALES AREA.   SHOWERS AND STORMS ELSEWHERE. RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND IT. NEXT SYSTEM COMING IN OUT WEST WITH SOME RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS. AND BY FRIDAY, THEN, THE FIRST SYSTEM IS STALLED OUT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AND THE SECOND SYSTEM PRODUCING SOME PRETTY DECENT SNOWS IT LOOKS LIKE FROM MINNESOTA DOWN INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BACK IN OUR NEXT HALF HOUR WITH  A LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK.  
TEASE:
THANKS, MIKE. IN HONOR OF VETERANS DAY THIS WEEK, WE HAVE TWO VETERANS ON THE MARKETING ROUNDTABLE WITH US THIS WEEK. BRIAN SPLITT AND CRAIG VANDYKE ARE IN TO TALK MARKETS AFTER THE BREAK. 
<JOIN US THIS YEAR AS WE TALK TO GROWERS ABOUT THIS YEAR'S GROWING SEASON, AND THE DECISION THEY'RE MAKING ON THEIR JOURNEY TO HARVEST- SPONSORED BY DUPONT PIONEER>
<YOU'RE WATCHING U.S. FARM REPORT WITH HOST TYNE MORGAN, COMMENTATOR JOHN PHIPPS, AGRIBUSINESS DIRECTOR AL PELL AND  METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN. U.S. FARM REPORT. TRUSTED. TIMELY. TRADITION.>
MARKETS NOW
THE LIVESTOCK INDUSTRY REMAINS UNDER ATTACK FROM ANIMAL WELFARE ACTIVISTS REGARDING THE HUMANE TREATMENT OF ANIMALS. JUST THIS WEEK, THE U-S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE SAID ITS REVIEWING THE AUTHENTICITY  OF A VIDEO FROM A HORMEL FOODS HOG SUPPLIER IN AUSTIN MINNESOTA. THE  VIDEO REPORTEDLY SHOWS ANIMALS BEING BEATEN AND HOGS COVERED IN FECES AT A SLAUGHTERHOUSE.
BUT AS JOHN TELLS US, IMPROVEMENTS ARE BEING MADE ACROSS THE COUNTRY, AND THINGS COULD GET EVEN BETTER THANKS TO TECHNOLOGY. JOHN.  
LAST WEEK I HAD THE PRIVILEGE TO SPEAK TO THE ELITE PRODUCER BUSINESS  CONFERENCE - THE ANNUAL MEETING HOSTED BY MY COLLEAGUES AT DAIRY TODAY. IT IS ALWAYS A LEARNING EXPERIENCE FOR ME AS DAIRY IS AN INDUSTRY CONSTANTLY MOVING FORWARD SCIENTIFICALLY AS WELL AS CONTINUOUSLY UPDATING THEIR BUSINESS STRATEGIES.  I WAS DEEPLY IMPRESSED BY THE EFFORTS THE ENTIRE INDUSTRY, FROM PRODUCERS TO RETAILERS, HAVE UNDERTAKEN TO ANSWER ANIMAL WELFARE CONCERNS FROM CONSUMERS. THEIR CONCERNS FOR PROFITABILITY WERE GENUINE AND STRONGLY EXPRESSED, BUT I DIDN'T WITNESS A LOT OF TIME WASTED RANTING AGAINST IRRATIONAL CONSUMERS OR COMPLAINING ABOUT UNFAIR CONVERAGE BY THE MEDIA. THESE PEOPLE WERE REALISTS.
ONE THING THEY TRULY GET IS THE POWER OF VIDEO, AND THE EXPERTS I TALKED TO WERE BLUNT IN THEIR ASSESSMENT OF SO-CALLED AG GAG LAWS AS A POOR DEFENSIVE TACTIC. IN FACT, AS TECHNOLOGY GETS EVER-CHEAPER AND SMALLER, ONE POWERFUL ANSWER TO UNDERCOVER VIDEOS IS SIMILAR TO WHAT LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES ARE PONDERING: ROUTINE, CONSTANT SELF-SURVEILLANCE.  WHILE THE DEBATE OVER BODY CAMS FOR POLICE CONTINUES, MANY LIKE ME ARE REACHING THE CONCLUSION THAT THE ONLY EFFECTIVE ANTIDOTE TO SPY CAMERAS IS TO MAKE THEM REDUNDANT. IF EVERYTHING IS RECORDED, TRANSPARENCY IS NO LONGER AN ISSUE.  THE BREAKTHROUGH FOR THIS IDEA WILL BE WHEN SOFTWARE ENGINEERS CAN CREATE PROGRAMS TO SCAN THE GIGABYTES OF VIDEO RAPIDLY FOR QUESTIONABLE CONDUCT. I'M GUESSING IT MAY ALREADY EXIST IN SOME FORM AT HIGHER SECURITY LEVELS, AND IN TIME THIS ENORMOUS DATA-CRUNCHING ABILITY SHOULD BE AVAILABLE FOR EVERY LEVEL OF PRODUCTION. THIS NOT ONLY PROVIDES EVIDENCE FOR THE DEFENSE, IT STRONGLY ENCOURAGES CORRECT ACTIONS IN THE FIRST PLACE.
WHAT WE SEE IS A POWERFUL INFLUENCER OF WHAT WE THINK. IT SEEMS TO ME THE PLAN TO COUNTER VIDEO WITH VIDEO HAS A LOT OF MERIT. 
TEASE:
THANKS, JOHN. STILL TO COME,EAST COAST PRODUCERS WERE SPARED FROM  AVIAN FLU OUTBREAKS THIS FALL. BUT THAT DOESN'T MEAN THEY AREN'T PREPARING FOR THE UNKNOWN. THAT'S OUR FARM JOURNAL REPORT AFTER THE BREAK. 
FROM THE STUDIOS OF FARM JOURNAL BROADCAST, THIS IS U.S. FARM REPORT. WELCOME BACK TO U-S FARM REPORT. WE HAVE MUCH MORE AHEAD THIS WEEKEND.  KEEPING AVIAN FLU AWAY. OUR FARM JOURNAL REPORT SHOWS US HOW BEEFING UP BIOSECURITY IS PAYING OFF.
SO WHAT'S A DOLLAR REALLY WORTH? THAT'S CUSTOMER SUPPORT.
BAXTER BLACK TELLS US A TALE OF OLD BLUE. AND A SPECIAL TRACTOR TRIBUTE PUT TOGETHER BY AN AVID VIEWER. 
CREDIT AVAILABILITY DECLINES AS FARMERS SEEK MORE LOANS:
NOW FOR THE HEADLINES, FARMERS ARE SEEKING MORE FARM LOANS, BUT BANKS SAY IT COULD BE A CREDIT CRUNCH THE REMAINDER OF THE YEAR.
THE KANSAS CITY FEDERAL RESERVE SAYS FARM INCOME LOSSES INTENSIFIED DURING THE THIRD QUARTER OF THIS YEAR. 
THE  BRANCH COVERING KANSAS, MISSOURI, NEBRASKA AND THE MOUNTAIN REGION, SHOWING MOST OF THAT CAN BE TIED TO THE BIG CUTS IN LIVESTOCK PRICES.   BANKERS IN THOSE AREAS SHOW THE LARGEST DOWNWARD SHIFTS IN YEARS, WITH LIVE CATTLE PRICES DROPPING 17 PERCENT AND FEEDER CATTLE 22 PERCENT DURING THE THIRD QUARTER.  BANKERS ALSO SAY WHILE FARMERS ARE SEEKING MORE FARM LOANS, CREDIT AVAILABILITY APPEARS TO BE DECLINING.  THIS COULD CREATE CHALLENGES FOR ANY PRODUCER LOOKING FOR ADDITIONAL FINANCINING OR DEBT RESTRUCTURING TOWARDS THE END OF THE YEAR.
TO THE EAST, THE ST. LOUIS FED REPORTS FARM INCOMES CONTINUE TO FALL. BUT SO DOES FARMLAND PRICES. THE BANK REPRESENTING SEVEN MIDWEST AND MID-SOUTH STATES SHOWS FARMLAND PRICES DROPPED 2 POINT 6 PERCENT, BUT CASH RENTS ACTUALLY REBOUNDED, UP LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. THAT'S AFTER RENTS FELL LAST QUARTER.  
THE BANK ALSO SAYS RANCHLAND ACTUALLY STRENTHENED NEARLY 5 PERCENT COMPARED TO LAST YEAR. 
FDA:
THE FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISRATION RELEASING NEW RULES THAT PUT MORE "BITE" INTO IMPORTED FOODS.
THE F-D-A SET STANDARDS THAT REQUIRE FOREIGN PRODUCE FARMS AND IMPORTERS TO VERIFY THEIR PRODUCTS MEET U-S FOOD SAFETY STANDARDS.
 THE RULE SETS SCIENCE-BASED STANDARDS FOR GROWING, HARVESTING, PACKING AND STORING PRODUCE THAT ARE INTENDED TO BE SHIPPED TO THE U-S.   THE COMPANY THAT JUST RECEIVED APPROVAL FROM USDA FOR ITS AVIAN FLU VACCINE IS BEING BOUGHT OUT.
HARRIS VACCINES: AMES BASED HARRIS VACCINES IS SELLING ITSELF TO MERCK AND COMPANY. THE DEAL IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE THIS YEAR. HARRIS VACCINES SAYS THEY HOPE THE ACQUISITION WILL HELP THE VACCINE MANUFACTURER EXPAND ITS TECHNOLOGY INTO OTHER AREAS, LIKE FOOT AND MOUTH DISEASE IN CATTLE.  HARRIS VACCINES IS ALSO THE MAKER OF THE P-E-D VACCINE CALLED I-P-E-D PLUS.
WEATHER:
HEAVY RAINS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW HIT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEK, AN AREA DESPERATE FOR LONG-TERM DROUGHT RELIEF.
HERE'S THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES'S FORCAST, SHOWING MORE THAN 7 INCHES OF RAIN HITTING THE EXTREME NORTHWEST CORNER OF WASHINGTON.
NOW, LET'S COMPARE THAT TO THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR. ALL OF WASHINGTON IS CONSUMED BY SOME LEVEL OF DROUGHT, WITH NEARLY HALF THE STATE SEEING EXTREME CONDITIONS.
AS FOR THE ENTIRE WEST, DROUGHT IMPROVED SLIGHTLY FROM LAST WEEK, BUT MORE THAN HALF THE REGION IS STILL SEEING MODERATE DROUGHT OR WORSE.  AND IN CALIFORNIA, 45 PERCENT OF RESIDENTS ARE UNDER THE MOST SEVERE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.  BUT ACCORDING TO USDA METEOROLOGIST BRAD RIPPEY, EL NINO COULD HELP BRING RELIEF THIS YEAR.   WE CERTAINLY HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF GETTING CALIFORNIA INTO A DROUGHT EASING PATTERN SOMETIME WITHIN THE NEXT 2 TO THREE MONTHS. WE'RE ALREADY SEEING SOME RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS CALIFONRIA NOW IN EARLY NOVEMBER, THAT'S A GOOD SIGN THAT NOW WE'RE GETTING THOSE EL NINO DRIVEN STORMS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE WEST COAST.">  RIPPEY ALSO THINKS AREAS LIKE THE GULF COAST AND MISSISSIPPI DELTA COULD SEE EXTREME FLOODING THIS WINTER. 
LONGER RANGE FORECAST:
 THAT'S IT FOR NEWS...METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH  OUR LONGER RANGE FORECAST. MIKE, BRAD THINKS WETTER WINTER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEST AND SOUTH. THAT'S THAT WE'VE BEEN HEARING. WHAT ELSE SHOULD WE EXPECT THE NEXT 90 DAYS? THANKS, TYNE. I DEFINITELY AGREE WITH BRAD. IT'S A TYPICAL EL NINO PATTERN TO SEE WETTER CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHWEST, SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVEN ON INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND I WOULD CONTINUED TO AGREE WITH THAT. THE WAMER THAN NORMAL WATERS IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC MAY CAUSE SOME DIFFERENCES IN TEMPS THAN WE TYPICALLY GET FOR A STRONG EL  NINO SO THAT'S SOMETHING WE NEED TO WATCH AS WE HEAD INTO WINTER. JET STREAM THOUGH FOR THIS WEEK YOU CAN SEE A TROPH COMING IN CUTTING OFF THAT'S GOING TO BE A WET SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. BY THE WEEKEND, THEN, IT'S ALREADY SPREADING EAST A QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR COMING IN BEHIND AND THAT LOOKS INTERESTING FOR THE GREAT LAKES AS WE HEAD FOR LADDER PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER TROPH COMING IN OUT WEST. DEFINITELY AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. SO FOR MY 30 DAY OUTLOOK GOING ABOVE NORMAL FOR MINNESOTA  TO  ALABAMA AND EASTWARD. BELOW NORMAL FOR SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS AND MOST OF THE WEST, AS YOU CAN SEE. PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 30 DAYS, THERE IT IS, ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA. NEAR NORMAL FOR CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. BELOW NORMAL UP ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. TYNE.


BIOSECURITY BEEF UP MAY DEFEND AGAINST AVIAN FLU:
DELAWARE POULTRY PRODUCERS AARON AND JOHNATHON THOMPSON SAY AS THE SEASONS CHANGE, THERE'S NOT MUCH WORRY TO TWEAK THEIR BIO-SECURITY PRACTICES.
WE HAVEN'T HAD TO CHANGE ANYTHING BECAUSE WE'VE ALREADY HAD SUCH GREAT EXISTING GUIDELINES. WHEN THINGS HAPPEN, YOU'RE ALREADY PREPARED AND KNOW WHAT TO DO IF THAT WAS TO COME,">32
THAT'S BECAUSE THEIR OPERATION, LOCUST-LANE-HARTLEY , IS LOCATED WITHIN THE ATLANTIC FLYWAY -AN AREA THAT'S KNOWN AS THE GRANDDDADDY OF POULTRY OPERATIONS.  
THIS IS BASICALLY THE BIRTHPLACE OF COMMERCIAL OPERATIONS SO IT'S KIND OF ONE OF THE OLDEST AREAS. 45 THEIR FLYWAY WAS SPARED DURING THE H5N2 AVIAN INFLUENZA OUTBREAK THAT STARTED IN 2015, KILLING OVER 50 MILLION BIRDS NATIONWIDE.  BUT THE AREA DEALT WITH A SIMILAR OUTBREAK BACK IN 2004.  I BELIEVE IT'S PURE LUCK THAT IT DIDN'T GO THROUGH LAST TIME.
*LUCK OR NOT, THE TWO BELIEVE THEIR BIOSECURITY IS STRONG AND IF THE  VIRUS WERE TO HIT, IT SHOULDN'T SPREAD AS FAST AS IF DID LAST SPRING. THE TWO BROTHERS HAVE SUPPLIED FOR PERDUE FARMERS SINCE 2009. IN TURN, THEY APPLY PERDUE'S BIO SECURITY BEST PRACTICE STANDARDS TO THEIR OPERATION. 
*THE BIO-SECURITY IS SCALED BY A NUMBER SYSTEM. LEVEL ONE INCLUDES DEDICATED FOOTWEAR AND VESTS. LEVEL TWO IS SIMILAR BUT DEDICATED FOOTWEAR PER HOUSE. DOORS ARE LOCKED AND WATER IS SANITIZED. 
DISINFECTING IS HEIGHTENED WITH LEVEL THREE. THAT INCLUDES CLEANING UPMANURE AND SPILLD FEED.
IF YOU'RE AT A LEVEL THREE, AND AN AREA IS IN A LEVEL THREE, THEY DON'T EVEN ENCOURAGE YOU TO GO TO OTHER PUBLIC PLACES WHERE OTHER POULTRY PRODUCERS WOULD BE. THAT'S SOMETHING THEY ASK OF YOU. LUCKILY, WE HAVEN'T BEEN TO LEVEL THREE. WE'VE BEEN TO LEVEL TWO,"  
*THE THOMPSON'S SAY THE SUPPLIERS AND FEED TRUCK DRIVERS HAVE THEIR OWN SET OF RULES THEY HAVE  TO FOLLOW.   WHAT THEY'RE RESPONSIBLE FOR IS THE ORDER THEY VISIT THE FARMS IN FROM  YOUNGEST TO OLDEST. FROM UNINFECTED TO INFECT OR NON-VACCINATED TO VACCINATED 45 >
DESPITE THE SECURITY, THERE IS A WORRY. THERE ARE A LOT OF MAN-MADE PONDS, SOME EVEN 100 FEET AWAY FROM THE BARNS THAT ARE HOME TO CANADIAN GEESE. 
SO WE CALL THEM RESIDENTS. IF WE GET SOME MIGRATORY GEESE COMING IN AND INFECT THE RESIDENT GEESE, THEN WE DON'T KNOW HOW LONG THEY COULD BE HERE. 35
*FOR NOW, THEY HOPE THEIR SECURITY PRACTICES ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THEIR FLOCKS HEALTHY AND SAFE FOR ANOTHER SEASON.   REPORTING FOR U.S. FARM REPORT, I'M BETSY JIBBEN.

THANKS BETSY.  
PERDUE ENCOURAGES ENCLOSED COMPOSTING. THE THOMPSON'S BUILT AN  ENCLOSED COMPOSTING BUILDING WITH WALLS AND GATES TO KEEP WILD BIRDS OUT.   WHEN WE COME BACK, JOHN PHIPPS.
<FOR 150 YEARS CARGILL HAS BEEN WORKING SIDE-B-SIDE WITH FARMERS AND THE AGRICULTURAL COMMUNITY. THANK YOU FOR BEING PART OF THIS SUCCESS. WE CONTINUE TO LOOK FORWARD AND ARE EXCITED TO OFFER ONLINE GRAIN PURCHASING THROUGH CARGILLAG.COM>
CUSTOMER SUPPORT: VALUE OF THE DOLLAR
WE CONTINUE TO TALK ABOUT THE STRENGTH OF THE U-S DOLLAR AND HOW IT'S WEIGHING ON U-S EXPORTS. BUT WHAT'S THE DOLLAR REALLY WORTH?
THAT'S THIS WEEK'S CUSTOMER SUPPORT WITH JOHN PHIPPS.
DON KELLY HAS A SIMPLE, BUT TRICKY QUESTION:
"COULD YOU PLEASE ADDRESS THE VALUE OF THE DOLLAR AND HOW IT AFFECTS U.S. AS FARMERS? ALSO IT WOULD BE HELPFUL IF THE VALUE OF THE DOLLAR COULD BE INCLUDED IN THE FINANCIAL REPORT THAT APPEARS AT THE BOTTOM OF THE SCREEN, SO THAT I CAN KEEP TRACK OF IT."
DON, EMAIL YOUR ADDRESS - YOU'VE EARNED A MUG. OUR ANALYSISTS DO TALK ABOUT THE VALUE OF THE DOLLAR, BUT WHEN YOU GET RIGHT DOWN TO IT, MEASURING THAT VALUE IS NOT AS EASY AS IT SEEMS.
THE BIGGEST REASON IS THE DOLLAR IS WHAT WE USE TO MEASURE THE VALUE OF EVERYTHING ELSE. IN FACT, IT IS THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC YARDSTICK. WHEN WE TALK ABOUT THE STRENGTH OF THE DOLLAR FOR INSTANCE THE UNSAID  PORTION OF THAT PHRASE IS "COMPARED TO SOMETHING".
THE MOST WIDELY USED MEASURE OF THE VALUE OF THE DOLLAR IS THE DOLLAR INDEX, OFTEN ABBREVIATED AS USDX, WHICH IS TRADED ON THE INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE IN NEW YORK. IT IS CALCULATED FROM A WEIGHTED BASKET OF CURRENCIES AS FOLLOWS: EURO - 57.6%; JAPANESE YEN -13.6%; BRITISH POUND - 11.9%; CANADIAN DOLLAR - 9.1%; SWEDISH KRONA - 4.2%; AND THE SWISS FRANK - 3.6%. THOSE NUMBERS REPRESENT HOW MUCH WE WERE TRADING WITH EACH BACK IN 1973 WHEN THE INDEX BEGAN.  HERE IS A CHART OF THE INDEX SINCE THEN. I HAVE TWO PROBLEMS WITH IT, HOWEVER. FIRST, THE COMPOSITION OF THE INDEX DOESN'T COME CLOSE TO OUR TRADING PICTURE NOW. ONE BIG MISSION IS THE CHINESE YUAN, FOR EXAMPLE. CHINA IS ABOUT TO BECOME OUR BIGGEST TRADING PARTNER. TO COMPARE, HERE ARE OUR BIGGEST TRADING PARNERS NOW. THAT SAID, THE INDEX DOES FOLLOW OTHER MEASURES LIKE THE BLOOMBERG DOLLAR INDEX PRETTY CLOSELY.  THE SECOND PROBLEM IS MORE SUBTLE. THE INDEX WAS ANCHORED AT 100 ON THE DAY IT BEGAN. WHILE THIS IS LOGICAL, THERE IS A PSYCHOLOGICAL MESSAGE CARRIED WITH THE INDEX AS WE TEND TO COMPARE IT TO 100. IT JUST FEELS BETTER IF IT IS OVER 100, FOR EXAMPLE. PERHAPS THE BEST WAY IS TO ALWAYS LOOK AT A CHART INSTEAD OF THE NUMBER AND CONCENTRATE ON WHICH DIRECTION IT IS MOVING, AND HOW FAST. NEXT WEEK, I'LL LOOK AT WHY THIS MATTERS TO FARMERS, AND INDEED ALL OF US.
THANKS, JOHN. 

TEASE:
DON'T GO ANYWHERE. BAXTER BLACK JOINS US NEXT. 
AND LATER, A SPECIAL TRACTOR TALES TOLD AND EDITED FROM THE EYES OF A VIEWER WHO'S PAYING TRIBUTE TO HIS FATHER-IN-LAW.
<MISS ANY OF TODAY'S SHOW? HEAD TO USFARMREPORT.COM TO WATCH THE PROGRAM ONLINE. U.S. FARM REPORT, THE SPIRIT OF COUNTRYSIDE. >
WELCOME BACK. IT'S TIME NOW TO HEAD OUT WEST TO HEAR FROM BAXTER BLACK WHO HAS A TALE ABOUT OLD BLUE.
BAXTER BLACK:
A RETIRED OHIO FARMER TOLD ME THIS STORY.  IT’S ABOUT THE BEST COON DOG HE'D EVER SEEN.  IT WAS AN OLD BLUE TICK HOUND THAT HIS FATHER HAD TRAINED.  HE SAID HIS DAD WAS SUCH AN EXCELLENT TRAINER HE DIDN'T EVEN HAVE TO GO HUNTING WITH BLUE, THE DOG WOULD GO BY HIMSELF.  DAD WOULD PUT A HIGH BOARD OUT ON THE BACK PORCH, A LARGE OR A JUMBO.  AND JUST BEFORE DARK BLUE WOULD COME OUT FROM UNDER THE PORCH, LOOK AT THE SIZE OF THE HIDE BOARD AND THE NEXT MORNING THERE WOULD BE A COON TO FIT LYIN ON THE PORCH.  BLUE WAS SO WELL TRAINED AND SO SMART HE WOULD   CHASE A RACOON AROUND THE WOODS UNTIL HE SPOTTED A TREE THAT WAS LEANING JUST ENOUGH THAT HE WOULD CLIMB UP IT AND TAKE OF THE COON.    SOMETIMES MORE THAN ONE.  THEN HE'D WHIP OUT HIS LITTLE MORE MAKER KNIFE THAT HE CARRIED ON HIS COLLAR AND SKIN EM OUT. AND HE'D CARRY HIM HOME IN HIS MOUTH.  THE ONLY THING HE COULDNT DO WAS SHARPEN HIS SKINNING KNIFE.  YOU SEE, HE COULDN'T HOLD THE KNIFE WITH HIS PAWS BECAUSE HIS TOENAILS WERE SO WORN DOWN FROM RUNNING THAT WHEN HE HELD THE KNIFE IN HIS MOUTH HIS EARS FLOPPED DOWN ADN HE COULDNT SEE.    BLUE WAS SO PROFICIENT WITH HIS KNIFE, HE WOULD HOLD IT IN HIS TEETH.  HE LEAVES LIFT BACK LIKE A JACK ASS EATING BRYERS AND REACH UP WITH ONE TOENAIL AND OPEN THAT LITTLE MORE MAKER KNIFE AND SKIN THE COON RIGHT QUICK AND NOT HAVE A NICK IN THE HIDE.  ONE TIME DAD SENT WAY AND GOT BLUE A MALE ORDER COURSE ON VENTRILLIQUIST.  HE GOT SO GOOD AT THROWING HIS VOICE THAT THE GAME WARDEN FROM THREE COUNTIES RAN THEMSELVES RAGGED TRYING TO CACTH OLD BLUE HUNTING OUT OF SEASON.    BUT ALAS THEY LOST OLD BLUE DUE TO AN UNFORTUNATE CIRCUMSTANCE.  MOM ALWAYS DID HER IRONING OUT ON THE BACK PORCH.  ONE DAY DAD CAME HOME  WITH A BRAND NEW IRONING BOARD, WELL THEY KISSED AND HUGGED AND  CAUGHT UP AND THEN WENT IN THE HOUSE COMPLETELY FORGETTING ABOUT THE IRONING BOARD LEFT OUT ON THE PORCH.  IT WAS LEFT OUT ALL NIGHT. 
THEY NEVER SAW OLD BLUE AGAIN.  THIS IS BAXTER BLACK FROM OUT THERE.
TEASE:
WHEN WE COME BACK, AL PELL IS HERE WITH A TRACTOR SHOT AND EDITED BY A VIEWER WANTING TO PAY TRIBUTE TO HIS FATHER IN LAW. SO STAY TUNED FOR THAT SPECIAL TRACTOR TALES NEXT.
TRACTOR TALES:
 WELCOME BACK.  WE HAVE A SPECIAL TRACTOR TALES THIS WEEK.  VIEWER DON WALKER PUT TOGETHER A UNIQUE TRIBUTE FOR HIS FATHER-IN-LAW AND WAS KIND ENOUGH TO SHARE IT WITH US. THIS 52 MASSEY 44 DIESEL IS A ONE OWNER 
TRACTOR AND AS YOU'LL SEE, IT'S AN IMPORTANT PART OF THIS OHIO FAMILY. 
<IM PAUL TOLLY AND I LIVE IN SOMERVILLE, OHIO.  THIS IS A 1952 MASSEY HARRIS  44 DIESEL THAT I BROUGHT BRAND NEW WITH A CORN PICKER ON IT.  YEAH, IT HAD A 2 ROW CORN PICKER ON IT WHICH WAS MODERN BACK THEN.  I ALSO BOUGHT A 3 BOTTOM PLOW THAT I USED ON IT.  THE NEIGHBORS BORROWING IT TO FILL THEIR SILO.  IT WAS THE ONLY TRACTOR THEY COULD USE THAT WOULD BLOW THE SILAGE CLEAR OVER THE TOP.  AND NOT PLUG IT UP OR STOP IT. I HAD IT RESTORED A FEW YEARS AGO WANTED IT RESTORED, HE WANTED THE CORN PICKER SO I TRADED THE CORN PICKER FOR RESTORING THE TRACTOR.  IT WAS A GOOD DEAL BECAUSE IT NEEDED REALLY CLEANING AND SANDING AND NEW PAINT AND IT WAS ALL STRIPPED DOWN AND REPAINTED AND BROUGHT BACK HERE WITH THE DECALS ON IT.  LOOKED BRAND NEW WHEN WE HAD IT RESTORED.  WHY IT RUNS JUST AS GOOD AS THE DAY WE BOUGHT IT.  I WAS SURPRISED BECAUSE IT HADN'T BEEN RUN FOR SEVERAL YEARS, I JUST LET IT  SET IN THE BARN.  GOT IT BACK FROM RESTORATION AND I DROVE IT WHEN THEY DELIVERED IT BACK HOME AND I DROVE IT ON THE FARM AND IT WAS JUST LIKE IT WAS BRAND NEW.  IT JUST THAT FEELING THERE, AND IT WAS NEW, IT WAS NEW. BECAUSE IT WAS COMPLETELY REDONE.  IT WAS A SURPRISE AND A GREAT FEELING TO HAVE THIS TRACTOR BACK, BE ABLE TO SIT ON IT AND DRIVE IT. 
AGAIN, OUR THANKS TO DON FOR SENDING THAT VIDEO IN.  
CHURCH SALUTE:
AND THIS WEEK'S CHURCH SALUTE GOES TO THE HOLY NAME CHURCH OF MARCUS, IOWA. CELEBRATING 100 YEARS, THIS CHURCH BOASTS BEAUTIFUL ARCHITECTURE BOTH INSIDE AND OUT, WITH THE SAME STRUCTURE STANDING FOR 100 YEARS.  OUR THANKS TO FRAN BRIGGS FOR SENDING THAT IN. 
TEASE:
STAY WITH US, CROPWATCH IS NEXT. 
<THIS IS MACHINERY PETE- INVITING YOU TO CHECK OUT MY NEW WEBSTITE- MACHINERYPETE.COM- OFFERING FARMERS TENS OF THOUSANDS OF USED EQUIPMENT LISTINGS TO SEARCH. LET MACHINERY PETE HELP YOU FIND AND VALUE YOUR NEXT PEICE OF USED EQUIPMENT> 
CROP WATCH:
JARRET  BOWERS SAYS HE'S NEVER HAD TO FIGHT WEATHER AT HARVEST LIKE THEY'VE BEEN FORCED TO DO THIS YEAR. WHILE LIVING IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MEANS HE CAN'T COMPLAIN ABOUT RAIN, IT'S CREATING A MESS, WITH COMBINES CONTINUOUSLY GETTING STUCK, CREATING BIG RUTS IN THE FIELDS. JARRET SAYS EVEN THOUGH THE CALENDAR SAYS MID-NOVERMBER, THERE IS STILL A LOT OF CORN AND SORGHUM LEFT IN THE FIELD TO HARVEST, WITH PORTIONS OF THE CROP SUFFERING FROM AIL DAMAGE THIS FALL.    AND ILLINOIS CORN YIELDS MAY HAVE BEEN A ROLLERCOASTER THIS YEAR, BUT THE POPCORN LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. SCOTT TRIMBLE TELLS US THEY HAD A RECORD POPCORN CROP IN HEYWORTH, ILLINOIS AND THE QUALITY WAS OFF THE CHARTS. AFTER HARVEST, THEY PUT THE CROP IN MINI CRIBS MADE OF PALLETS. AND THEN THE REAL WORK BEGINS--THEIR ENTIRE WINTER WILL CONSIST OF SHELLING, DRYING AND BAGGING THE POPCORN. AND PRINCETON, MINNESOTA FARMER ERIC MINKS TELLS US HE FINALLY FOUND WHAT' HE'S BEEN LOOKING FOR-- HIS LAST ROW. THAT'S IN RESPONSE TO JOHN'S TOUCHING COMMENTARY FROM A COUPLE WEEKS AGO ABOUT THE HEART-FELT MEANING BEHIND HIS LAST ROW EVERY YEAR.   MIKE OBVIOUSLY I'M ABOUT DUE. IT'S PRETTY OBVIOUS. IT'S GETTING THERE. THANKSGIVING IS THE OFFICIAL DUE DATE. SO WHILE I'M GONE, ACTUALLY CLINTON GRIFFITHS WILL BE FILLING IN FOR ME. SO BE PREPARED. SO CLINTON  WILL BE STANDING HERE FOR SIX WEEKS OR SO OR WHATEVER IT TAKES. YES,  SO IF YOU COULD GIVE HIM A HARD TIME I WOULD APPRECIATE THAT FOR ALL SIX WEEKS. (LAUGHTER). OKAY SOUNDS GOOD. 
CLOSING:
FOR JOHN, AL AND MIKE, I'M TYNE MORGAN. THANK YOU FOR WATCHING U-S  FARM REPORT.  BE SURE TO JOIN US RIGHT HERE AGAIN NEXT WEEK, AS WE WORK TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND, EVERYONE.  

 
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