USFR Weekly Recap - October 28-29, 2017

May 30, 2015 03:30 AM
 
USFR_Logo

TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
OCTOBER 28-29, 2017


HEADLINES
WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT THIS FINAL OCTOBER  WEEKEND. I'M TYNE MORGAN, AND HERE'S WHAT WE  HAVE IN STORE FOR YOU.  CATTLE PRICES PUSH FULL STEAM AHEAD.  <THERE'S NO MAJOR IMBALANCES> THAT'S AS DEMAND HEATS UP DURING THE HOLIDAY  SEASON.  TENSIONS AROUND TRADE GROW, AS THE FATE OF  NAFTA IS UKNOWN... . < WE HAVE TO START LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF IMPORTING FROM  SOUTH AMERICA IN CASE THE AGREEMENT FALLS APART.48:48> COULD THE U-S LOSE ITS' COMPETITIVE EDGE IN  MEXICO? THAT'S OUR FARM JOURNAL REPORT.  ONE CALIFORNIA DAIRYMAN HAS SEEN THE PEAKS AND  THE VALLEYS...  <"I'LL BE 80 YEARS OLD HERE IN A COUPLE OF MONTHS. EVERYONE ASKS  WHY DO YOU DO IT? WELL, IT'S BEEN MY LIFE. I DON'T KNOW HOW TO SLOW  DOWN (LAUGHS),"> MEET OUR REAL FACES OF DAIRY.  AND IN JOHN'S WORLD...  <U.S. FARM REPORT - BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE DEPENDABLE, LONG  LASTING, CHEVY SILVERADO.>

LIVESTOCK MARKET MOMENTUM
NOW FOR THE MARKET RELATED NEWS,  THE  MOMENTUM IS PICKING UP IN THE LIVESTOCK MARKETS.  CATTLE AND FEEDER FUTURES  ON FIRE MAKING NEW  CONTRACT HIGHS THIS WEEK WITH SOME ANALYSTS  THINKING THERE'S STILL PLENTY OF FREEWAY AHEAD  FOR HIGHER PRICES.  AND IT'S THAT PRICE MOMENTUM CARRYING  AGRICULTURE'S BALANCE SHEET RIGHT NOW USDA SAYS THE TOTAL HERD IN FEEDLOTS HIT TEN- POINT-EIGHT MILLION HEAD, FIVE PERCENT ABOVE LAST  YEAR'S LEVELS. PLACEMENTS OMING IN AT JUST OVER TWO MILLION  HEAD, THAT'S 13 PERCENT HIGHER THAN A YEAR AGO  AND A LEVEL NOT SEEN SINCE 2011. WHILE THE LAST CATTLE ON FEED REPORT TRIGGERED  BEARISH PRICE ACTION, THE MARKET DIDN'T SEEM  PHASED BY THE LARGE NUMBERS THIS MONTH.  <WHAT'S DIFFERENT ABOUT THIS REPORT IS YES WE'VE INCREASED  PLACEMENTS THE PLACEMENT NUMBER WAS DRASTICALLY ABOVE 5 TO  ALMOST 6 PERCENT ABOVE THE AVERAGE TRADE. YES. WHAT WAS  SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT HERE IS THE RANGE OF TRADE. YES AS WAS  DRAMATICALLY WHITE AS WELL. AND WE WERE STILL WITHIN THE RANGE OF  TRADE ESTIMATES. AND THEN YOU GOT TO TAKE A STEP BACK AND ALSO  LOOK AT YOU KNOW SHOW LISTS ARE DOWN, CARCASS WEIGHTS ARE  STARTING TO FALL, BOXED BEEF OVER 200 DOLLARS. WE'VE GOT GREAT  DEMAND. AND EVEN IF WE GO BACK AND LOOK AT LARGE PLACEMENT  NUMBERS FROM A SKILL STANDPOINT WE'RE OUTPACING THESE LARGE  PLACEMENT NUMBERS, SO WE'VE GOT A LOT OF STRENGTH IN IT. AND  THESE NUMBERS STILL DO MATTER. THE BOTTOM LINE IS WE'VE GOT  DEMAND THAT'S KEEPING UP WITH THE MARKET QUITE WELL.>

COLD STORAGE
COLD STORAGE NUMBERS OUT THIS WEEK, SHOWING A  RECORD AMOUTN OF TOTAL RED MEAT AND POULTRY IN  STORAGE.  TEH REPORT SHOWED TOTAL RED MEAT SUPPLIES  DOWN 5 PERCENT FROM LAST YEAR. BUT SUPPLIES ARE  UP 4 PERCENT FROM LAST MONTH.  LOOKING JUST AT BEEF-- THOSE SUPPLIES DOWN 6  PERCENT FROM LAST YEAR, BUT UP 2 PERCENT FROM  LAST MONTH.  BUT BETTER DEMAND IS HELPING EAT THROUGH THE  AMOUNT OF RED MEAT IN FREEZERS COMPARED TO A  YEAR AGO.    <THERE'S NO MAJOR IMBALANCES. YOU KNOW WE KNOW WE'VE GOT  SOME SUPPLY CHALLENGES GOING FORWARD BUT DEMAND HAS BEEN  VERY GOOD. AND AS LONG AS THAT HOLDS TRUE THEN THE REST OF THIS  STUFF WORKS PRETTY WELL.>

MILK PRODUCTION
USDA RELEASING ITS SEPTEMBER MILK PRODUCTION  REPORT. PRODUCTION CLIMBING JUST 1 PERCENT. THAT'S THE SMALLEST INCREASE OF THE YEAR. COW NUMBERS DIPPING SLIGHTLY IN SEPTEMBER..BUT  REMAIN ABOVE 9 POINT 4 MILLION HEAD. THE GOLDEN STATE OF CALIFORNIA ONCE AGAIN  REPORTING A DROP IN PRODUCTION---DOWN NEARLY 3  AND A HALF PERCENT ON A DECLINING COW HERD. WISCONSIN, NEW YORK AND IDAHO WERE ALL ABOUT  EVEN ON THE YEAR.

CROP PRODUCTION
TEXAS PRODUCTION JUMPING AGAIN -- UP 10 PERCENT  YEAR OVER YEAR. DESPITE SOME HEADWAY DURING HARVEST, THERE ARE  STILL SOME MAJOR DELAYS. AT 70-PERCENT COMPLETE,  SOYBEAN HARVEST IS THREE POINTS BEHIND AVERAGE,  BUT IT'S NOT AS BAD AS LAST WEEK'S ELEVEN POINT  GAP. . FARMERS IN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA PUSHED AHEAD OF  AVERAGE. BUT THE WESTERN CORN BELT IS  STRUGGLING WITH 20 POINT DELAYS IN IOWA, 16 POINTS  IN NEBRASKA AND TEN POINTS BEHIND IN MINNESOTA. BUT THE GAP IS EVEN WORSE IN CORN...AND GROWING  WIDER. THE CROP PROGRESS REPORT SHOWING OVERALL  CORN HARVEST 21 POINTS BEHIND THE AVERAGE PACE.  THAT'S TWO POINTS WORSE THAN LAST WEEK. MINNESOTA IS NOW 41 POINTS BEHIND THE USUAL  PACE. IOWA AND SOUTH DAKOTA ARE 32 POINTS  BEHIND. NEBRASKA AND NORTH DAKOTA - 26 POINTS BEHIND. . FARMERS IN THE EASTERN CORN BELT MADE-UP SOME  DELAYS FROM LAST WEEK BUT ARE STILL RUNNING  BEHIND.

WEATHER
THOSE ARE THE HEADLINES...METEOROLOGIST MIKE  HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH WEATHER... MIKE, THERE  ARE SOME AREAS REALLY FALLING BEHIND IN HARVEST,  INCLUDING THE NORTHERN CORN BELT.  I KNOW TIME THAT'S UNFORTUNATE THAT HOPEFULLY WE CAN SEE  THINGS DRY OUT SLOWLY AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK AND  MOST OF THOSE AREAS IT IS DRY OVERALL IN THE LONG TERM DROUGHT  MONITOR AND IT'S DRYING IN PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN  MISSOURI. THAT'S THE AREA THAT'S BEEN EXPANDING OVER THE PAST  COUPLE OF WEEKS AND YOU CAN SEE EXPANSION IN THE NORTHEAST AS  WELL. THIS IS ACTUALLY GOTTEN SLIGHTLY BETTER IN THE DAKOTAS AND  MONTANA AND NOT BY LOTTO BUT YOU CAN SEE A MONTH AGO IT WAS A  LITTLE BIT MORE ON THE EXTREME EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT AREAS AND YOU  CAN SEE THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES HAVE  ACTUALLY SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A LITTLE BIT. NOW LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT THIS  WEEK. WE HAVE A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT  LAKES AS WE START THE WEEK ON MONDAY WITH JUST A FEW RAIN AND  SNOW SHOWERS WITH THAT WHEN THIS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR. BUT  THE CHILLY AIR IS ALREADY GOING ALL THE WAY DOWN THROUGH FLORIDA  ALTHOUGH WITH SUNSHINE IT'S NOT TOO BAD DOWN THERE. PRETTY  INTENSE SYSTEM THOUGH ON MONDAY EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEAST  WITH SOME GOOD RAINS MAYBE EVEN SOME STRONG WINDS WITH THAT  ONE. MOST OF THE REST OF THE COUNTRY THOUGH KIND OF TRANQUIL. CAN ON WEDNESDAY THEN A SYSTEM COMING UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST  WILL BE MOVING ON UP INTO THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY AND THE GREAT  LAKES MAINLY RAIN. LITTLE BIT OF SNOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES AND  SCATTERED SHOWERS DOWN ALONG THAT COLD FRONT.  NO OTHER SYSTEM KIND OF MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE UPPER  MIDWEST WITH SOME RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THAT AREA BY FRIDAY  THEN YOU CAN SEE THAT FIRST SYSTEM KIND OF MOVING AWAY BUT AS  WE LOOK BACK TO THE WEST A PRETTY STRONG SYSTEM COMING INTO THE  PACIFIC NORTHWEST SPREADING SOME SNOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS WELL. WE'LL BE BACK IN OUR NEXT HALF HOUR. THE LONGER RANGE  OUTLOOK.  THANKS, MIKE.

TEASE
LIVESTOCK MARKET SEEING LIFE THIS  WEEK, WHILE GRAINS STAYED PRETTY STAGNANT. BUT  COULD THE HARVEST LOW IN CORN COME LATE THIS  YEAR DUE TO HARVEST DELAYS? CHIP NELLINGER AND  JIM MCCORMICK JOIN ME NEXT. 

ROUNDTABLE 1
WELCOME BACK TO U.S. FARM REPORT. CHIP NELLINGER JIM MCCORMACK ON THE ROUNDTABLE WITH ME THIS WEEK. ALL RIGHT. THERE WASN'T MUCH SOY BEANS AND CORN TO TALK ABOUT SO LET'S START OFF WITH LIVESTOCK.  STRONG TRADE IN THE CATTLE COMPLEX THIS WEEK. YOU KNOW WE HAD THE CATTLE ON FEED REPORT WE HAD A COLD STORAGE REPORT WE HAVE A GROWING CATTLE HERD. SO WHAT IS DRIVING THIS PRICE MOMENTUM RIGHT NOW CHIP.  WELL A COUPLE OF THINGS IF YOU LOOK AT THE WEEKLY EXPORT SALES THERE'S SOME VOLATILITY WEEK TO WEAKEN THOSE. BUT WE'RE IN A REALLY STRONG WEEK OF BOTH BEEF AND PORK EXPORT SALES. AND I THINK DOMESTICALLY YOU KNOW THERE'S LOTS OF INDICATIONS THE ECONOMY IS STARTING TO GROW A LITTLE BIT SO I THINK DOMESTIC DEMAND IS PRETTY GOOD. EVEN THOUGH WE'RE FACED WITH HIGHER NUMBERS OF CATTLE AND HOGS PACKERS WE'RE KIND OF GETTING THE PRODUCT CLEARED AND MAKING MONEY AND THAT'S GIVING US A NICE BOOST HERE GOING INTO THE FOURTH QUARTER AND I KIND OF HEARD IT PUT IS THERE'S NO MAJOR IMBALANCES RIGHT NOW WHEN YOU LOOK AT THIS.

 WHEN YOU LOOK AT THIS CATTLE MARKET.  RIGHT. THE CATTLE ON FEED REPORT FROM A WEEK AGO THOUGH WE DO HAVE A LOT OF NUMBERS OF IT IN FRONT OF US SO WE'VE GOT SOME CHALLENGES YOU KNOW COMING THIS SUMMER AND INTO NEXT FALL. BUT AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 60 90 DAYS WE SHOULD BE LIKE YOU SAID I THINK THAT'S A GOOD WORD KIND OF IMBALANCE HERE. SURE WE COULD PROBABLY BACK OFF A LITTLE BIT BUT I THINK WE'RE AT A GOOD VALUE HERE. BOTH HOGS AND CATTLE.  WINTER AND SPRING YOU'RE THINKING FAVORABLE PRICES.  WINTER AND SPRING. WITH THAT BEING SAID I DON'T WANT TO GIVE THE IMPRESSION THAT WE'RE JUST GOING TO GO STRAIGHT UP I THINK RIGHT PRODUCERS OUT THERE NEED TO TAKE A LOOK AT THOSE WINTER. YOU KNOW FEBRUARY APRIL CONTRACTS IN BOTH CATTLE AND HOGS. THERE'S GOOD PROFITABILITY THERE AND I THINK YOU NEED TO BE REALIZE THAT AND BE READY TO LOCK THOSE PROFIT MARGINS IN.  YOU KNOW WHEN WE LOOK AT THE DEMAND SIDE. EXPORTS HAVE BEEN STRONG AND WE LOOK AT DOMESTIC DEMAND THAT'S BEEN BEEN STRONG. BUT WHEN YOU LOOK AT THIS ECONOMY DO YOU THINK THAT DOMESTIC DEMAND CAN KEEP UP. DO YOU THINK THAT THE ECONOMY CONTINUES TO GROW AT THIS POINT.  YEAH MOST LIKELY THE GDP CAME OUT TODAY AT 3 PERCENT. SO IT'S A GROWING IS WHEN THE STRONGER GDP REPORTS WE'VE HAD IT LOOKS LIKE THESE TAX CUT TAX CUTS ARE GOING TO GET THROUGH THE REPUBLICANS REALLY WANT TO PUSH IT THROUGH. IF IT CAN DO THAT THAT SHOULD JUST HELP KEEP THIS ECONOMY GROWING AT LEAST TEMPORARILY NEAR TERM AND THAT SHOULD KEEP THE DEMAND STRONG FROM THE ON THE DOMESTIC SIDE.  SO YOU THINK IT HELPS SUPPORT THE ECONOMY OVERALL LOOKING AT THE STOCK MARKET. EVERYTHING YOU THINK RIGHT NOW THERE'S ONLY FAVORABLE SIGNS RIGHT NOW.  I THINK THERE'S FAVORABLE SIGNS OF THE ECONOMY. I AM A LITTLE BIT LEERY. I MEAN IF YOU LOOK AT THIS STOCK MARKET RALLY AS A WHOLE I MEAN ALL BUT YEAR 9 ON IT. SO WE'RE IN THE LONGEST BULL RUNS WE EVER HAD. PROBABLY A LITTLE BIT OVERBOUGHT. I THINK THE ONE THING I'M A LITTLE BIT LEERY ABOUT ON THE STOCK MARKET IS WE'VE RUN UP A LOT OF WHAT'S THE HEADLINE TAX CUTS TAX CUTS AND TAX CUTS. IF WE GET THAT TAX CUT HAVE YOU SET OURSELVES UP FOR AT LEAST A NASTY KIND OF BUY THE RUMOR SELL THE FACT AND WE COULD SEE A LITTLE OF A CORRECTION DOWN THE LINE IN THE STOCK MARKET I BELIEVE.  BUT HOW WOULD THAT IMPACT US IN AGRICULTURE.  WELL I THINK ONE WAY YOU COULD IMPACT IN A POSITIVE WAY IF LIKE JIM SAID WE'VE HAD A HUGE BULL RUN HERE SO LOTS OF MONEY POURING INTO THE STOCK MARKET LOTS OF MONEY MADE. IF YOU'VE GOT MONEY IN THE STOCK MARKET FOR THE LAST FIVE 10 YEARS YOU'VE MADE A LOT OF PROFITS THESE HEDGE FUNDS HAVE SOME PROFITS AS WELL. SO IF WE CAN GET A BIGGER CORRECTION IN THE STOCK MARKET I THINK THAT JUST FROM A DIVERSIFICATION STANDPOINT YOU'D HAVE SOME MONEY FLOWING OUT OF STOCKS INTO COMMODITIES. JUST FROM A VALUE PLAY WELL WHAT'S CHEAP RIGHT NOW. CORN BEANS YEAH YOU KNOW HE CAN ARGUE WHEAT IS CHEAP. SOME OF THE SOFT COMMODITIES COFFEE SUGAR COCOA PRETTY CHEAP. SO I THINK IF YOU DID SEE A BIGGER BREAK IN THE STOCK MARKET IT COULD ACTUALLY BENEFIT THE AG SIDE BY SOME MONEY FLOWING INTO COMMODITIES.  HOW WOULD THAT TAKE.  WELL THAT COULD TAKE YOU KNOW RELATIVELY QUICKER THAN PEOPLE THINK. I MEAN THE MARKET'S GOING TO TRY TO MOVE WORK WHERE IT CAN MAKE THE MOST MONEY. AND LIKE JIM SAID THERE IS A LOT OF MONEY TO BE MADE IN THE STOCK MARKET. IF YOU COULD GET THE STOCK MARKET TO GO INTO ANOTHER GEAR AND PUSH AHEAD AND THE OTHER THING I'M LOOKING AT IS INFLATION. INFLATION STARTS TO HEAT UP A LITTLE BIT. WHERE IS THE MONEY GOING TO GO LOOK AT KERNEL KERNELS ARE IN THE MID 50S. IT'S RALLYING THE FUNDS, ARE HELPING CRUDE AND PART OF THE LIVESTOCK RUN I BELIEVE IS THE F UNDS. THEY'RE JUST POURING MONEY INTO BOTH THE HOGS AND THE CATTLE THAT COULD PROBABLY BE JUST A TWO MAN PLAY THAT COULD ESSENTIALLY BE A LONG TERM INFLATION PLAY. BUT THE GREENS ARE CHEAP SO IF YOU CAN GET THEM INFLATION PLAY TO JUMP INTO THAT AND PUSH IT YOU THROW IN THE PROBLEM AND ALL OF A SUDDEN YOU MIGHT GET AROUND QUICKER THAN PEOPLE EXPECT.  AND WITH THIS CATTLE YOU TALKED ABOUT VOLATILITY. DO YOU THINK THIS VOLATILITY GOES ANYWHERE I MEAN YOU KNOW WE'RE LOOKING AT FAVORABLE PRICES BUT WE SEE THE PEAKS WE SEE THE VALLEYS. WHAT WILL IT TAKE TO GET RID OF SOME OF THIS VOLATILITY IN THESE PRICE SWINGS THAT WE SEE.  WELL I HOPE WE DON'T. I REALLY DON'T. I MEAN IT'S KIND OF A ROLLERCOASTER RIDE AT TIMES BUT I'VE KIND OF BEEN PRETTY VOCAL ON EVEN WHEN CATTLE ARE AT THE HIGHS AND CORN AND BEANS ARE FLYING AROUND A BIG DATA RANGE IS YOU NEED THAT VOLATILITY BECAUSE WHAT THAT DOES IS IT GIVES YOU ROOM TO MANEUVER AND MAKE YOU KNOW PLANS AHEAD. AND IF YOU HAD SALES MADE AT THE HIGHER LEVELS GET SOME CALLS BOUGHT ON THE BREAK. YOU KNOW SO I HOPE WE GET SOME MORE VOLATILITY TO BE HONEST WITH CORN AND BEANS REALLY NEED SOME BECAUSE THEY'RE PRETTY DEAD IN THE WATER RIGHT NOW.  VOLATILITY CREATES OPPORTUNITY THAT VOLATILITY WE'VE REALLY NOT SEEN IN SOME OF THESE COMMODITY MARKETS LIKE CORN AND SOYBEAN. SO WHEN WE COME BACK LOOKING SHORT TERM YOU KNOW WE KEEP TALKING ABOUT THIS HARVEST SLOW YET HARVEST IS LATE SO HAVE WE PUT IN A HARVEST LOW WHEN IT COMES TO A COMMODITY LIKE CORN. WE'LL HAVE THEM ANSWER THAT WHEN WE COME BACK ON U.S. FARM REPORT.

ROUNDTABLE 2
WELCOME BACK TO US FARM REPORT THEY WILL CHECK FOR THE BREAK. WHEN WE WERE TALKING ABOUT INFLATION WE WERE TALKING ABOUT YOU KNOW THE FUNDAMENTALS REALLY HAVEN'T CHANGED WITHIN LOOK AT CORN AND SOYBEANS. DOES IT HAVE TO BE THE FUNDAMENTALS THAT MOVE CORN AND SOYBEAN PRICES HIGHER. OR COULD IT BE SOMETHING ELSE THAT COMES IN IT SPURS THAT.  YEAH I THINK IT COULD DEFINITELY BE SOMETHING LIKE THAT. YOU KNOW JIM MENTIONED INFLATION AND YOU MENTIONED VOLATILITY. I HOPE WE GET A LITTLE BIT OF AN UPTICK IN INFLATION MAYBE NOT FROM MY POCKET BOOK BUT THAT WILL I THINK HELP THE GRAIN MARKETS IN SIMILAR AGRICULTURE MARKETS GO HIGHER. I THINK HAWGS IS A GREAT EXAMPLE OF THAT RIGHT NOW BEARISH HOGS AND PIGS REPORT HAD BEEN BUILDING NUMBERS GOING ON THREE YEARS AND YET WE'RE IN THE MIDST OF A PRETTY GOOD RALLY IN HAUG. SO YOU KNOW THERE'S NO DOUBT IT'S KIND OF AN OLD STORY WE'VE GOT PLENTY OF STOCKS. THE CORN CROP IS BIG A BEAN CROPS BIG. BUT I THINK IF THERE IS SOME INFLATIONARY PRESSURES AND OR A COMBINATION OF SOME MONEY FLOWING IN OUR STOCK MARKET INTO COMMODITIES IT COULD REALLY TAKE PEOPLE BY SURPRISE AND CAUSE A RALLY WHEN NO ONE REALLY EXPECTS IT FUNDAMENTALLY.  BUT TODAY LOOKING FUNDAMENTALLY LOOKING AT THE BIG BIG STOCK NUMBER THAT WE HAVE LOOKING AT HARVEST GOING ON RIGHT NOW SINCE HARVEST LATER. DO YOU THINK WE POTENTIALLY PUT THIS HARVEST LOW IN THE CORN MARKET LATER THAN NORMAL.  I THINK RIGHT NOW WE GOT ONE MARCH OUT. WE COULD GET ONE GIFT DOWN ON THE CORN MARKET. I DON'T THINK IT'S GOING TO ON THIS NOVEMBER CROP TOMORROW PRIMARILY AFFECT BIG CROPS GET BIGGER. I THINK IN GENERAL THESE YIELDS HAVE HUNG IN THERE SO FAR. SO THE TRAIN WILL BE ANTICIPATING A BIG UP AT LEAST A SMALL TICK IN THE CROP SIZE. IF THEY DO WE MIGHT GET ONE LITTLE FRESH MOVE DOWN THE FUNDS ARE SHORT OF AROUND 170 180000 CONTRACTS THEY CAN ADD ANOTHER 40000 TO MAX OUT SO THEY COULD TRY TO PUSH IT ONE LAST TIME KIND OF GET ONE LAST BARISH TRYING BUT I DON'T ANTICIPATE IT TO LAST.  IT'S ONE OF THESE I THINK THE BUY-AMERICAN ACTUALLY EVEN ON THE FLIP SIDE OF THAT WHAT DO YOU THINK LEADING INTO THIS NOVEMBER REPORT WHAT DO YOU THINK HAPPENS WITH SOY DO YOU THINK THAT MAYBE WE SEE A LITTLE YOU KNOW USDA TERM A LITTLE BIT OF THIS NATIONAL YIELD OFF. I THINK YOU COULD.  AND I AGREE WITH JIM. I WAS WRONG EARLIER ON. CORN FIELDS ARE CASE AND YOU ADMITTED IT. I'M PRETTY CAUTIOUS TO SAY THIS BUT YEAH CORN FIELDS THE LATER PLANT CORN REALLY HUNG IN A LOT BETTER THAN I EXPECTED. BUT AS WE'RE TALKING TO PRODUCERS IT GOT INTO THE LAST PART OF THEIR BEANS AND UNFINISHED BEANS UP THOSE LATER BEANS ESPECIALLY IN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA KIND OF TAILED OFF. AND SO I DO THINK THERE'S PROBABLY ROOM THAT THE USDA COULD CUT BEING YIELDS A LITTLE BIT. NOT TALKING THREE BUSHELS BUT A HALF BUSHEL TO A BUSHEL. AND YOU WERE SO TIGHT ALREADY ON THAT ON THE STOCKS TO USE WITH MASSIVE DEMAND THAT THAT COULD REALLY BE A NICE WHEN DID OUR BACK TYPE ISSUE FOR THE MARKET. AND I THINK THAT WE KIND OF NEED TO HOPE FOR THAT BECAUSE I THINK THAT'S A LOT OF WHAT COULD HELP DRIVE CORN OUT OF THESE LOWS AS WELL.  YEAH EXACTLY. I MEAN WE'RE WE'RE MONTHS AWAY FROM PLANTING BUT WE DO A LOT OF THESE FARMERS RIGHT NOW WE'RE MAKING DECISIONS ON WHAT THEY'RE GOING TO PLANT NEXT YEAR AS THEY LOOK AT YIELDS AND THINGS LIKE THAT. SO I'M LOOKING. DO YOU THINK SOYBEANS ULTIMATELY IF WE SEE A LITTLE BIT OF A RALLY DO YOU THINK THAT BUYS ACRES AND THEN WHAT KIND OF A SCENARIO DOES THAT PUT INTO PLAY FOR NEXT YEAR.  I THINK IF IT WILL BUY ACRES RIGHT NOW I MEAN I KNOW I WAS LITTLE I WAS KIND OF SURPRISED THIS YEAR. I REMEMBER ABOUT A YEAR AGO I KEPT THINKING WE WERE GOING TO PLANT MORE BEANS AND I REALLY THOUGHT THIS MIGHT BE THE YEAR WE DID IT BECAUSE FISCALLY THE FARMERS BEEN VERY TIGHT I THINK IS EVEN A WORSE SITUATION THIS YEAR BECAUSE WE NEVER GOT THE PRICE REALLY THEY REALLY WANTED. WE NEVER GOT TO THE 420 IN A 450 ZONE SO I THINK THE PRODUCERS REALLY FISCALLY TIGHT. IF WE CAN GET A BEAN WHILE YOU GET THESE BEANS BACK OVER TEN TEN TWENTY FIVE. PAUL THE NEW CROP YOU KNOW NOVEMBER 18 OVER 10 I THINK YOU WILL BUY MORE ACRES.  REAL QUICK YOU AGREE. I AGREE. SIX MONTHS AGO I THOUGHT MAYBE WITH THE ROTATION WE PLANT MORE CORN ACRES. I DON'T THINK SO. NOW FOR EXACTLY WHAT JIM SAID BANKER WAS ALREADY INVOLVED LAST SPRING I THINK IS GOING TO BE MORE INVOLVED THIS SPRING. AND THAT COULD FORCE AN ADDITIONAL TEENAGERS TOO. ALL RIGHT WE NEED TO TAKE A QUICK BREAK BUT WHEN WE COME BACK WE'RE GOING TO GET BOTH OF THEIR CLOSING THOUGHTS. DON'T GO ANYWHERE.

MARKETS NOW
ALL RIGHT. WELCOME BACK. TIME NOW FOR CLOSING THOUGHTS. CHIP WE'LL START WITH YOU.  YEAH I WOULD SAY THAT IT'S BEEN A LONG DRAWN OUT DOWNTURN IN CORN BUT I THINK WE'RE GETTING CLOSE TO NOT THE TIME TO THROW IN THE TOWEL ON FARM STORED CORN. THERE'S GREAT CARRIER IN THE MARKET A MINIMAL 15 TO 20 CENT POST-HARVEST BOUNCED. I THINK IF YOU CAN STORE CORN ON FARM YOU'RE GOING TO BE ABLE TO AVERAGE 380 OR NORTH YOU KNOW AND PAY FOR THAT STORAGE THE BEAN MARKET. I THINK YOU COULD ASK SOME UPSIDE IN THE WINTER ESPECIALLY WITH A FLARE UP IN SOUTH AMERICA. BUT WE'VE GOT TO HAVE OUR FINGER ON THE TRIGGER FROM THE 18 PERSPECTIVE CORNER OF BEINGS. BOTH MAKE THE PLANS NOW AND BE READY TO TRIP THE TRIGGER ON THAT RALLY.  ALL RIGHT JIM FOR CORN FOR ME I'M FRIENDLY CORN IN THE LONG RUN AND THE FACT THAT WE'RE INTERESTING ABOUT SEEN COMING OUT WE HAD A YEAR AGO YOU KNOW CORN DIDN'T MANAGE TO GET BACK UP IN FOUR HOURS TIME THE SPRING TIME SO BE PATIENT LIKE CHIPS AND USE. USE THE STORAGE WHEN YOU GET IN YOUR FOR MONEY. USE OPTIONS RE ON IT. SIMPLE.  ALL RIGHT. THANK YOU BOTH FOR BEING HERE. WE APPRECIATE IT. WELL WHAT CAUSED THESE IMPRESSIVE YIELDS THIS YEAR AND JOHN GIVE US HIS THOUGHTS NEXT.

JOHN’S WORLD
WE'VE HEARD OF SOME MONSTROUS YIELDS OUT THIS  YEAR... A PLEASANT SURPRISE TO MANY OF YOU  DRIVING HTE COMBINE WATCHING THE YIELDS ROLL IN.  SO, WHAT'S THE CULPRIT BEHIND A SURPRISING CROP?  HERE'S JOHN PHIPPS.  WE HAVE JUST A FEW ACRES OF CORN LEFT, BUT WE NEED RAIN BADLY SO  I'M NOT UPSET ABOUT THE INTERRUPTION. TO MY CONSIDERABLE  SURPRISE, OUR CORN CROP WAS NOT NEARLY SO BAD AS WE EXPECTED.  IN FACT, THANKS TO YIELD MAPS, WE KNOW THAT SOME PARTS OF THE  FIELD WERE PHENOMENALLY GOOD. TO BE SURE, LIGHTER SOIL AND  HIGHER GROUND WAS POOR, BUT THE OVERALL AVERAGE WAS GOOD  NEWS. NOR ARE WE ALONE, AS BEST I CAN TELL FROM TIGHT-LIPPED  NEIGHBORS. I'LL LET THE NASS BASHERS RESPOND IN THEIR OWN TIME, BUT THE IDEA  YIELDS WERE WILDLY OVERESTIMATED SEEMS DOUBTFUL NOW. I ALSO  EXPECT SEED COMPANIES TO BEGIN CLAIMING CREDIT FOR THESE  SURPRISINGLY GOOD YIELDS. IT JUST HAS TO BE SUPERIOR BREEDING AND  TRAITS THAT ARE MAKING CORN SO RESILIENT UNDER ADVERSE CONDITIONS. BUT COLOR ME SKEPTICAL. THE BIGGEST PROPORTIONAL YIELD SURPRISE  FOR US WAS A DECADES OLD, NON-GMO HYBRID THAT WE GROW UNDER  CONTRACT FOR STARCH. SOME CUSTOMER WANTED THE SAME EXACT  PRODUCT THEY USED BACK THEN, SO OUR ANCIENT HYBRID WAS DUG OUT  OF STORAGE AND PLUGGED IN THE GROUND. ITS PERFORMANCE BORDERED  ON UNBELIEVABLE. WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT IT WE REALLY HAVE NO TEST PLOT OR FIELD DATA  COMPARING OLD NUMBERS TO THE LATEST AND HOTTEST HYBRIDS. WE  JUST COMPARE LAST FEW YEARS' OFFERINGS TO EACH OTHER. WHILE WE  HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE STORY THAT ALL THAT RESEARCH JUST HAS TO  BE MAKING CORN HYBRIDS BETTER, HOW CAN WE REALLY TELL? ALL I KNOW FOR SURE IS I HOPE THAT STARCH CUSTOMER WANTS TO STICK  WITH THE HYBRID THAT TIME FORGOT. IT IS ALSO PERSONALLY REASSURING  TO THINK THAT OLDER COMPETITORS CAN STILL WIN A FEW IF WE LET THEM  STICK AROUND. FINALLY, IF YOU ARE WONDERING WHAT'S WITH THE FLOWER, IT IS A  MANDEVILLA AND JAN IS VERY PROUD OF IT AND THOUGHT IT WOULD MAKE  A GOOD BACKDROP FOR A COMMENTARY. ALSO, FRESH HOMEMADE  BROWNIES WERE INVOLVED.

TEASE
THANKS, JOHN. STILL TO COME, AS TRADE TENSIONS  RISE, COULD IT COST U-S AG ITS COMPETITIVE EDGE?  THATS OUR FARM JOURNAL REPORT AFTER THE BREAK.

HEADLINES
WELCOME BACK TO U-S FARM REPORT THIS FINAL  OCTOBER WEEKEND.  EYES ARE ON WASHINGTON AS THE DBATE OVER AG  LABOR HEATS UP.  TRADE TENSIONS TIGHTEN AS NAFTA NEGOTIATIONS  TAKE A PAUSE.  IT'S A DAIRY FARMER SURVING THE HEADWINDS IN  CALIFORNIA. AND THEY'RE OUR REAL FACES OF DAIRY.  PLUS, JOHN HAS HIS FINAL CHAPTER OF NO-TILL IN  CUSTOMER SUPPORT. 

H2C GUESTWORKER PROGRAM
NOW FOR THE HEADLINES... A BILL THAT WOULD DO  AWAY WITH THE CURRENT H2A PROGRAM MADE IT OUT  OF COMMITTEE THIS WEEK. BUT IT WASN'T A SMOOTH  RIDE. AND AS DEBATE HEATED UP, THE MEASURE JUST  NARROWLY PASSING WITH A VOTE OF 17 TO 16.  OUSE JUDICIARY COMMITTEE BOB GOOODLATTE, A  REPUBLICAN FROM VIRGINIA, AUTHORED THE BILL.  KNOWN AS THE AG ACT, GOODLATTE SAYS IT ASSURES  A RELIABLE WORKFORCE BY CREATING A MARKET- DRIVEN AND ADAPTABLE WORKER PROGRAM.  THE PROPOSAL WOULD REPLACE THE CURRENT H-2A  PROGRAM, AS WELL AS LOWER WHAT HE CALLED  UNREALISTIC WAGES. IT ALSO DOES AWAY WITH  MANDATORY HOUSING AND TRANSPORTION FOR GUEST  WORKERS.  BUT IT'S A CHANGE THAT JOHN CONYERS, A DEMOCRAT  FROM MICHIGAN, AS WELL AS THE UNITED FARM  WORKERS ARE STRONGLY OPPOSING.   CONYERS CALLS IT  FLAWED LEGISLATION. WHILE GROUPS LIKE THE WESTERN GROWERS  ASSOCIATION SAY WHILE THE BILL COULD BE FINE  TUNED, INCLUDING ALLOWING LEGAL STATUS FOR  SOME AG WORKERS, THEY SAY THE CURRENT H-2A  SYSTEM SIMPLY DOESN'T WORK FOR THEM.  DO YOU THINK THE H2A PROGRAM IS  BROKEN? TOM: HAS BEEN SINCE IT WAS INACTED. TO REQUIRE THE  HOUSING HAS ALWAYS BEEN A PROBLEM. TO AQUIRE A WAGE RATE, IT'S  ALWAYS BEEN A PROBLEM. THEY SAY WE WANT TO PROTECT AMERICAN  WORKERS. WELL, WE DON'T HAVE MANY AMERICAN WORKERS TO PROTECT.  AND WE PAY A HIGH WAGE. WE DON'T PAY MINIMUM WAGE. 17 > NASSIF SAYS FINDING AG LABOR IS BECOMIGN EVEN  MORE COMPLEX, AS MEXICO HAS EVEN STARTED TO  IMPORT WORKERS. 

TAX REFORM
TAX REFORM LEGISLATION COULD BE ON TEH FAST- TRACK.  THAT'S AS THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES  NARROWLY PASSED A BUDGET RESOLUTION THIS  WEEK... TIED TO THAT WAS TAX REFORM.  THE VOTE WAS 216 TO 221.  THE MAJOR STICKING POINT WITHIN THE BILL WAS A  MAJOR TO ELIMINATE STATE AND LOCAL TAX  DEDUCTIONS.  THE PASSED PLAN DOES ELIMINATE TEH ESTATE TAX,  ALSO KNOWN AS THE DEATH TAX.  MEANWHILE, ANOTHER BILL FLOATING THROUGH  CONGRESS WOULD HELP FARMERS FACING  BANKRUPTCY.  THE FAMILY FARMER BANKRUPTCY CLARIFICATION ACT  OF 2017 WOULD MAKE IT EASIER FOR FARMILY FARMERS  TO REORGANIZE DEBT.  THE MEASURE WS SPONSORED BY SENATORS CHUCK  GRASSLEY AND AL FRANKEN.  IT WAS TACKED ON TO THE SUPPLEMENTAL  APPROPRIATIONS PACKAGE, WHICH IS NNOW HEADING  TO THE PRESIDENT'S DESK FOR HIS SIGNATURE.

MONSANTO STRIKES ARKANSAS
MONSANTO IS STRIKING BACK AT THE STATE OF  ARKANSAS FOR BANNING ITS VERSION OF DICAMBA. THE  COMPANY FILED SUIT FRIDAY AGAINST THE ARKANSAS  PLANT BOARD.  THE SEED AND CHEM MAKER IS ASKING  A JUDGE TO BLOCK THE STATE AGENCY FROM  ENFORCING A RULE THAT BANS THE USE OF DICAMBA  FROM APRIL 15TH THROUGH SEPTEMBER 15TH NEXT  YEAR. . THE STATE IMPLEMENTED THE BAN IN RESPONSE TO  FARMER COMPLAINTS. IN SEPTEMBER, THE PLANT  BOARD REJECTED A PETITION FROM MONSANTO TO  ALLOW ITS HERBICIDE TO BE USED. MEANWHILE, AN ARTICLE FROM RUETERS THIS WEEK  SUGGESTS THE DAMAGE FROM ARKANSAS THIS YEAR  MAY BE FROM ILLEGAL SPRAYING GENORIC OR OFF- LABEL DICAMBA. BASF'S NEW FORUMULATION OF DICAMBA ENGENIA WAS  APROVED FOR USE THIS YEAR, BUT THE COMPANY SAID  IT ONLY SOILD PRODUCT TO COVER 52 PERCENT OF THE  ACRES PLANTED WITH DICAMBA TOLERANT CROPS.

WEATHER
THAT'S IT FOR NEWS...METEOROLOGIST MIKE  HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH THE NATIONAL  FORECAST...WITH EVEN A LOOK AT HIS 90 DAY. MIKE, IS  LA NINA STARTING TO SHOW UP ON YOUR RADAR? . TYNE THAT'S RIGHT LA NIÑA IS PROBABLY THE BIGGEST FACTOR AS  WE HEAD INTO THIS WINTER AND I THINK PART OF THE REASON WE'VE  SEEN A LITTLE BIT OF A SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AS WE HAVE  MOVED THROUGH THE LAST WEEK. SO LET'S CHECK THE JET STREAM AS  WE LOOK AT THINGS WE CONTINUE TO SEE IN THE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN  PART OF THE COUNTRY. YOU WILL NOTICE THOUGH THAT AFTER WEDNESDAY  IT STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT A LITTLE BIT AND THAT'S GOING TO BE THE CASE AT  TIMES REALLY THROUGH THE WINTER. I THINK THE TROUGH WILL BE MAINLY  IN THE EAST A LITTLE BIT OF A RIDGE OUT WEST BUT AT TIMES IT'LL GO  MAINLY FROM WEST TO EAST AND THAT'S GOING TO BE THE CASE AS WE  HEAD INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE WAS A BIG  STORM COMING IN OUT WEST AS WELL. LEARNED OUTLOOK FOR  TEMPERATURES. WE'RE LOOKING AT BELOW NORMAL OVER THE CENTRAL  AND NORTHERN PLAINS STATES ABOVE NORMAL THEN FOR THE NORTHEAST  INTO EASTERN CANADA. NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE COUNTRY  THERE ABOVE NORMAL OUT WEST. PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 30  DAYS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC BELOW  NORMAL FROM KANSAS TO TEXAS BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A  SMALL ABOVE NORMAL AREA UP THERE OVER MONTANA TYNE 

FARM JOURNAL REPORT
THE MOST RECENT ROUND OF NAFTA NEGOTIATIONS  ENDED IN A FLURRY OF TERSE WORDS AND STRONG  STATEMENTS. OF COURSE, THAT HAS THE U.S. AG INDUSTRY ON  EDGE—WORRIED ABOUT DOING LONG TERM HARM TO  RELATIONSHIPS WITH TWO OF OUR BIGGEST  CUSTOMERS. CLINTON GRIFFITHS RECENTLY TRAVELED TO MEXICO  AS A GUEST OF THE U.S. GRAINS COUNCIL TO SEE HOW  GRAIN IMPORTERS ARE ALREADY LOOKING SOUTH FOR  SUPPLIES. ENGINEERED SEVERAL MILES FROM SHORE IN THE BLUE  WATERS OF THE GULF SITS THE PORT OF PROGRESO ON MEXICO'S YUCATAN PENINSULA.   HERE WE'RE BRINGING IN ABOUT 2.1 MILLION METRIC TONS OF GRAIN AND OIL SEEDS EVERY YEAR. LESS THAN TWO DAYS FROM THE PORT OF NEW  ORLEANS, PROGRESO IS A MAJOR HUB AND ENTRY  POINT FOR U.S. GRAINS.  IT'S BEEN ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT REASONS WHY THE UNITED  STATES HAS BEEN THE CLOSEST TRADING PARTNER WITH MEXICO IN  RECENT YEARS. 9:24  CURRENTLY THIS FACILITY HANDLES 7 SHIPS PER MONTH BUT ONE OF  IT'S KEY STRATEGIC BENEFITS IS THIS STORAGE AND IN FACT THEY'RE  ADDING CAPACITY HERE AS WE SPEAK.  WE HAVE ABOUT 120K MT OF STORAGE AVAILABLE SO WE CAN  HAVE CONTINUOUS DISCHARGE WITHOUT ANY STOPS. IT SEEMS VERY  EFFICIENT. IT ACTUALLY IS ONE OF THE MOST EFFICIENT PORTS IN ALL OF LATIN  AMERICA AND IT IS THE MOST EFFICIENT PORT IN MEXICO. AND MEXICO CONTINUES TO INVEST HERE… WE SEE THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO MAKING A CONTINUOUS  INVESTMENT TO EXPAND THE SCOPE AND SIZE OF THEIR PORTS. WHICH  WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TRANSPORTATION COSTS. 8:48 WORK BEING DONE HERE AND ELSEWHERE… CURRENTLY IN VERA CRUZ THEY ARE DOUBLING THE CAPACITY OF  THEIR AGRICULTURAL RECEIVING ABILITY  NOW WE HAVE A FACILITY THAT WE ARE BUILDING THERE AND WE  WILL BE READY BY THE END OF 2018. 21:15 IMPORTERS LIKE GRAMOSA AREN'T WAITING FOR PORT  WORK OR NAFTA NEGOTIATIONS TO BE DONE BEFORE  BOOKING SHIPS FROM OTHER DESTINATIONS. RIGHT NOW WE'VE BEEN PUSHED TO LOOK FOR NEW ORIGINS.  RIGHT NOW WE HAVE SEVERAL SUPPLIERS-- NOT ONLY THE UNITED  STATES. ACCORDING TO THE U.S. GRAINS COUNCIL, IN  SEPTEMBER MEXICO TOOK SHIPMENT OF FOUR  VESSELS FROM SOUTH AMERICA. THREE FROM BRAZIL  AND ONE FROM ARGENTINA… INCLUDING ONE TO VERA  CRUZ AND ONE HERE TO PROGRESO. THIS YEAR WE'VE SEEN MORE INTEREST FROM BRAZIL. THEY'VE  BEEN MAKING SIGNIFICANT INVESTMENTS IN THE PORT OF BARCARENA  AND THE PORT OF ITAQUI AND WITH THESE FACILITIES THEY'RE ALSO ABLE TO  COMPETITIVELY REACH THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO WITH YELLOW CORN  AND SOYBEAN. THESE NORTHERN PORTS IN BRAZIL ARE HELPING  FARMERS GET GRAIN TO END USERS MORE  QUICKLY—SHAVING UP TO FIVE DAYS OFF THE SHIPPING  TIME…COMPARED TO SOUTHERN PORTS.  WE HAD NEVER PREVIOUSLY REALLY CONTEMPLATED USING SOUTH  AMERICA AS A CONTINUOUS SOURCE. WE'VE ONLY EVER PURCHASED  INFREQUENTLY AND IT WAS ALWAYS A MATTER OF PRICING. 48:20 THESE GENTLEMEN HAVE BEEN BUYING GRAIN FROM  THE U.S. FOR SOME 30 YEARS.   WE REALIZE THAT WE DEPEND ON GRAIN FROM THE UNITED  STATES BUT WE HAVE TO START LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF IMPORTING  FROM SOUTH AMERICA IN CASE THE AGREEMENT FALLS APART.48:48  WE HAVE DONE IT BEFORE BECAUSE WE HAVE TAKEN  ADVANTAGE OF A GOOD PRICE. BUT I INSIST OUR NATURAL MARKET IS 40  HOURS AWAY FROM US. 38:26 THESE U.S. FARMER CUSTOMERS NOW RELUCTANT  BUYERS OF SOUTH AMERICAN GRAIN AS TRADE  UNCERTAINTY CLOUDS THE OPPORTUNITIES OF THE  FUTURE. IT IS A RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THESE BUYERS AND SELLERS. AND  I THINK THAT'S IMPORTANT. 13:51FOR U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. THANKS, CLINTON  US GRAINS SHOWS TOTAL EXPORT BOOKINGS TO  MEXICO AS OF MID OCTOBER WERE UP NEARLY 10  PERCENT. ANALYSTS SAY THE INCREASE MAY BE DUE TO WIDER  THAN NORMAL BASIS--BUT IT MAY ALSO BE THAT  MEXICAN IMPORTERS ARE MOVING GRAIN NOW AHEAD  OF ANY POTENTIAL BREAKDOWN IN NAFTA TALKS. THE NEXT ROUND IS SET FOR MEXICO IN MID  NOVEMBER. NEXT, JOHN PHIPPS.

CUSTOMER SUPPORT
AS JOHN MENTIONED LAST WEEK, HIS SERIES ON NO TILL KICKED UP QUITE THE RESPONSE FROM VIEWERS.  BUT HE WRAPS UP THE DISCUSSION WITH HIS FINAL  CHAPTER ON NO-TILL. JOHN.  FIRST A BRIEF WORD ABOUT TIMING. WHEN I'M BUSY I TRY TO RECORD  CUSTOMER SUPPORT THE WEEKEND BEFORE SO VIEWER RESPONSES  OFTEN GET TO ME TOO LATE TO BE SHOWN IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE  RESPECTIVE EPISODE. SO I'M ADDING ONE FINAL NO-TILL SEGMENT TO  INCLUDE THAT FEEDBACK. DAVID HUNT IN BLANDINSVILLE, ILLINOIS MAKES A COMPARISON "AS FAR  AS 'CHEMICAL DEPENDENCY', WHEN CONVENTIONAL TILLAGE FARMERS  DISCONTINUE USING CHEMICALS WE CAN HAVE A CONVERSATION. IT IS  MORE OF A CHANGE IN MINDSET, THAN MANAGEMENT TO BE  SUCCESSFUL WITH NO-TILL." DAVID, MY WORDS WERE ABSOLUTE CHEMICAL DEPENDENCY. AS PROOF,  I KNOW OF A FEW ORGANIC CORN AND SOY FARMERS WHO USE NO  HERBICIDES, BUT HAVE NEVER HEARD OF A NO-TILL ORGANIC GROWER. IF  WEED RESISTANCE MAKES HERBICIDES LIKE GLYPHOSATE INEFFECTIVE, IT  IS POSSIBLE TO DO WEED CONTROL WITH CONVENTIONAL FARMING. I'M OLD  ENOUGH TO HAVE DONE IT. OTHERS ALSO SUGGESTED THAT POINT AND JOHN KOEPKE FROM  OCONOMOWOC, WI BRISKLY DISMISSED SEVERAL OF MY POINTS SUCH  AS THE PROBLEM OF HEAVY, WET SOILS. "I'VE MET NO-TILLERS THAT FARM IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF VERMONT  WHO HAVE CONQUERED THEIR CLAY AND CLAIM THAT THEY ARE ABLE TO PLANT 10 DAYS SOONER  THAN THEIR CONVENTIONAL NEIGHBORS. DESPITE THE NO-TILLERS ACHIEVING SIMILAR YIELDS, THOSE  CONVENTIONAL NEIGHBORS STILL DON'T WANT TO ACCEPT THAT NO-TILL CAN WORK, AND WORK BETTER  THAN THE PLOW IN HEAVY CLAY. SIMILARLY, I'VE MET NO-TILLERS FROM QUEBEC WITH HEAVY CLAY SOIL  THAT HAVE GONE COMPLETELY NO-TILL, USING A CROP ROTATION AND COVERS. THEY WILL TELL YOU (IN  FRENCH) THAT "THE COMPACTION IN YOUR FIELD [FROM TILLAGE] IS A LOT EASIER TO FIX THAN THE  COPACTION IN YOUR HEAD." THANKS TO ALL OF YOU WHO WROTE. BUT AS I SAID ORIGINALLY, I KNOW OF  MANY SUCCESSFUL NO-TILL FARMERS AROUND ME. BUT THEY ARE  GROWING FEWER EACH YEAR. I ALSO BELIEVE LESS IN ANECDOTES ABOUT  WHO IS MAKING WHAT WORK, AND MORE ABOUT DATA SHOWING NO-TILL  USAGE STAGNANT AT BEST. I THINK THERE ARE VALID REASONS FOR THAT  TREND. ON THAT NOTE, WE WILL MOVE ON NEXT WEEK. IF YOU STILL HAVE QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS FOR  JOHN, SEND HIM A NOTE-- MAILBAG AT U-S FARM  REPORT DOT COM.

TEASE
UP NEXT, IN A STATE WHERE SOME DAIRY FARMERS  ARE FLEEING, WE MEET A FAMILY WHO'S SUSTAINED  CHANGES... AND BEEN IN BUSINESS FOR OVER 100  YEARS. 

REAL FACES OF DAIRY
CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO LEAD THE NATION IN MILK  PRODUCTION. YET, MANY DAIRIES HAVE A HARD TIME  STAYING IN THE STATE DUE TO ECONOMICS, CONSUMER  PERCEPTION AND STRICT REGULATIONS. THIS WEEK, BETSY JIBBEN INTRODUCES US TO ONE  DAIRY WITH DEEP ROOTS IN CALIFORNIA AND HOW  THEY'RE LIVING OUT THEIR LEGACY DESPITE THE  CHALLENGES.   NESTLED IN THE SAN JACINTO VALLEY. SIT STOP BROTHERS DAIRY. DAIRY FARM MORE THAN A HUNDRED YEARS IN THE MAKING.  ROOTED DEEP IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  MY GREAT GRANDFATHER CAME OUT FROM WATERLOO IOWA IN 1913 CAME ON A RAIL CAR ENOUGH TOGUERNSEY COWS A COUPLE OF CHICKENS FROM HUMBLE BEGINNINGS.  SCOTT BROTHERS GREW WENT TO AN OPERATION OF MORE THAN ELEVEN HUNDRED MILKING COOL STEETS ON A 900 ACRE RANCH. IT'S A FAMILY PARTNERSHIP OWNED BY BROTHERS BRAD AND BRUCE WITH THEIR DAD STAN.  I'M 18 YEARS OLD HERE. A COUPLE MONTHS. SO ANYWAY SO I SAID WHY. DID YOU DO IT AND I SAID WELL THAT'S BEEN MY LIFE AND I KNOW HOW TO SLOW DOWN.  SLOWING DOWN IS NOT IN THE FAMILY'S BLOOD. THE DAIRY IS ONE OF THE FEW REMAINING FAMILY OWNED OPERATIONS WHICH SUPPLIES ITS OWN CREAMERY.  DOWN THE ROAD IN CHINO THE DAIRY INDUSTRY IS ALWAYS CHANGING. WE'RE ALWAYS TRYING TO ADDRESS WHAT ARE THE CONSUMERS NEEDS AND DEMANDS. THEY'VE BUILT UP WHAT WAS A FEW ICE CREAM CONES FROM THE CREAMERY INTO A DAIRY WONDERLY. HAD MY MILK. GOT REALLY.  FULL OF FLUID MILK SOUR CREAM ICE CREAM MIX AND DOZENS OF OTHER PRODUCTS. THE MILK PLANT MAKES DAIRY PRODUCTS FOR OTHER COMPANIES AND EVEN HAS A LAB FOR RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT FOR NEW PRODUCTS AND IDEAS. THEY CAN COME IN HERE AND TRY DIFFERENT FLAVORS AND SEE WHICH ONE TASTE RIGHT BEFORE THEY ACTUALLY MAKE IT COMMERCIALLY.  THE FAMILY IS EVOLVING ITS ANCESTORS WORK BUT MOVING FORWARD IS STILL BRINGING CHALLENGES. ESPECIALLY IN CALIFORNIA.  IT'S SOMETHING WE TAKE GREAT PRIDE IN AND AN OWNERSHIP OF I GUESS YOU CALL IT. YOU KNOW I'LL BE LOOKING FORWARD AT THE SAME TIME YOU'RE LOOKING BACKWARDS AND AS YOU KNOW MANY DAIRIES IN CALIFORNIA BASICALLY BECAUSE OF THE REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT HERE ARE AN ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT ARE SAYING WE'RE JUST BASICALLY GOING TO LEAVE THE STATE AND GO TO GREENER PASTURES.  ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATIONS LOOM OVER DAIRIES IN THE STATES IN THE TOUGHEST CRITIC MAYBE THE CONSUMER.  WE'VE GOT TO MAKE SURE DAIRY FARMERS THAT WE ALWAYS HAVE OUR BEST FOOT FORWARD MAKING SURE OUR OPERATIONS ARE CLEAN AND LOOK GOOD TO THE CONSUMER A LOT THINGS THAT HAPPEN HERE. THEY DON'T UNDERSTAND. SO WE WANT TO MAKE SURE WHEN WE'RE GETTING A GOOD VISUAL IMAGE TO THEM THAT'S WHY BRAD VOLUNTEERS NOT ONLY FOR INDUSTRY GROUPS BUT COMMUNITY ORGANIZATIONS SINCE AFTER ALL THE DEGREE IS PART OF THE COMMUNITY.  IT'S AMAZING HOW MANY TIMES YOU TALK TO PEOPLE THEY FIND OUT WHO YOU ARE AND THEY GO OH THAT'S RIGHT YOU A DRIVE BY. OH THAT'S INTERESTING. WE ALWAYS WANT TO KNOW WHAT GOES ON THERE.  A FAMILY VALUING THE BASICS KNOWING NO TASK IS TOO SMALL FOR ITS OWNERS. WELL I STARTED THIS MORNING TWO O'CLOCK.  MADE ONE TRIP TO CHINO HALL MALKIN BACK HERE. BY 6 O'CLOCK A GRANDPA PASSING WORK ETHIC TO HIS GRANDDAUGHTERS WHO COULD BE THE FIFTH GENERATION OF DAIRY FARMERS IF THEY WOULD DECIDE TO COME BACK TO THE DAIRY OPERATION WE MIGHT HAVE TO CHANGE AT THE SCOTT SISTERS OR BROTHERS.  BUT YOU KNOW WHAT THEY GOT A LOT OF TIME FROM THEM TO TO TAKE A LOOK AT THAT AND SEE WHAT THEY MAY WANT TO DO BECAUSE FOR THIS FAMILY THE DAIRY IS FOUNDED ON THE PAST BUT FOCUSED ON ITS EVER CHANGING FUTURE. REPORTING FOR US FARM REPORT. I'M BETSY JIBBEN. THE SCOTT BROTHERS HAVE AN AGREEMENT WITH  ANOTHER FAMILY THEY BROUGHT IN AS A PARTNER TO  MANAGE THE CREAMERY.  IT'S AN AGREEMENT STAN ORGINALLY MADE WITH A  HANDSHAKE BEHIND A MILK TRUCK IN THE 1970S. WHEN WE COME BACK, MACINERY PETE SHOWS OFF A  JOHN DEERE A IN TRACTOR TALES. 

TRACTOR TALES
TRACTOR TALES BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE MOST  TRUSTED NAME IN FARM EQUIPMENT, MACHINERY  PETE!. WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES FOLKS!  WE HAVE A CLASSIC JOHN  DEERE A FOR YOU THIS WEEK.  THIS UN-STYLED A ORIGINALLY FARMED  WHEAT IN KANSAS BUT MADE ITS WAY TO TEXAS.  OWNER GORDON  MCCOSH ENJOYS SHOWING THIS CLASSIC OFF AT SHOWS AND PARADES.  THIS 37 MODEL A JOHN DEERE. IT ORIGINATED IN CLAY CENTER  KANSAS WHICH IS ABOUT 25 500 MILES NORTH OF HERE ABOUT 20  MILES FROM WHERE I GREW UP. MY DAD DID BUSINESS WITH HIM WHEN  I WAS A KID. SO WHEN I FOUND HIS TRACTOR RESTORED IN TEXAS I  FIGURED I HAD TO HAVE IT. SO BOTH THE TRACTOR AND I ORIGINATED IN  CENTRAL KANSAS. IT'S UNSTYLED. NO ELECTRICITY SO IT'S HAND-CRANK  AND START. THE FELLOW RESTORED IT WAS JIMMY KING LIVED IN TULSA AT  THE TIME FOUNDED IN MISSOURI. WELL I'M SURE AND CENTRAL KANSAS  IT STARTED OUT AS A. ALL PURPOSE TRACTOR ON A WHEAT FARM. THEY  GROW MOSTLY WHEAT, MILO BACK IN THE 30S THEY RAISED QUITE A BIT  OF CANE AND CORN FOR SILAGE. IT WAS STRICTLY A SHOWTRACTOR TODAY.  LAST TIME OUT WAS FOR A CHRISTMAS PARADE IN TERRELL TEXAS. AND  NEXT TIME OUT WILL BE FOR A TRACTOR SHOW IN HENDERSON TEXAS. I  LOVE IT. NEVER HAD AN UNSTYLED A OR UNSTYLED JOHN DEERE BEFORE.  AND SO I'D ALWAYS THOUGHT THEY WERE REAL NEAT LOOKING TRACTORS.  AND. HE WAS HAPPY TO FIND ONE THAT WAS THIS WELL RESTORED WHEN  I STARTED LOOKING.

COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE
THANKS SO MUCH.  TODAY'S COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE GOES TO THE BIG  LAKE CHURCH OF GOD, LOCATED IN COLUMBIA CITY,  INDIANA. THE CONGREGATION JUST REACHED A MAJOR  MILESTONE, CELEBRATING 100 YEARS THIS MONTH.  THEIR BEGINNINGS WERE IN A COTTAGE ON BIG LAKE, BACK IN 1917. AND TODAY, MANY FARMERS AND THEIR  FAMILIES ATTEND THE CHURCH IN THEIR RURAL  COMMUNITY.  OUR THANKS TO GWYNN RUCKMAN FOR SHARING THEIR  STORY.  AS ALWAYS WE WANT TO LEARN ABOUT YOUR HOME  CHURCH AS WELL... SALUTES CAN BE SENT TO THE  ADDRESS ON THE SCREEN.  STAY WITH US - CROPWACH  IS NEXT.

FROM THE FARM
HARVEST IS UNDERWAY IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  LOOK AT THAT WHITE BLANKET. THIS IS QUENTIN  SHIELDNIGHT'S FIELD. YIELDS ARE GOOD, BUT THE  QUALITY IS OFF A TAD DUE TO ALL THE RAIN THEY'VE  HAD RECENTLY. BUT SOME FARMERS ARE SEEING 2  PLUS BALES PER ACRE ON THEIR COTTON CROP. AND  THEY TELL ME FOR THAT AREA, THAT'S VERY GOOD.  NATIONALLY, 37 PERCENT OF THE COTTON CROP IS  HARVESTED-- 2 POINTS AHEAD OF AVERAGE.  THE FARM IS REALLY ALL ABOUT FAMILY.. . AND IT'S  MOMENTS LIKE THESE DURING HARVEST THAT ARE  CHERISHED THE MOST. JONI SENT US THIS PICTURE OF  HER HUSBAND JESSE TAKING THEIR TWO DAUGHTERS,  MADISON AND KENNEDY, FOR A RIDE IN THE COMBINE  THIS FALL.  IF YOU HAVE A PICTURE OF VIDEO YOU'D LIKE TO SEND  IN, SEND THOSE TO MAILBAG-AT-U-S-FARM-REPORT-DOT- COM OR CHECK US OUT ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER.

CLOSE
FROM ALL OF US AT U.S. FARM REPORT, I'M TYNE  MORGAN. THANK YOU FOR WATCHING U-S FARM  REPORT.  BE SURE TO JOIN US RIGHT HERE AGAIN NEXT  WEEK, AS WE WORK TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION. HAVE  A GREAT WEEKEND, EVERYONE.  

Back to news


Comments

 
Spell Check

No comments have been posted to this News Article

Close