USFR Weekly Recap - September 30-October 1, 2017

September 30, 2017 03:30 AM
 

TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
SEPTEMBER 30-OCTOBER 1, 2017


HEADLINES
WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS IN   FOR TYNE MORGAN, AND HERE'S WHAT WE'RE WORKING ON FOR YOU. A STOCKS STARTING POINT-- USDA'S RELEASES ITS LATEST NUMBERS DROUGHT VS DRYNESS...WITH MIKE HOFFMAN. IN JOHN'S WORLD   "MAKING DUE, THAT WORKS." AND SEEING GREEN-- THIS TRACTOR IS NOT A DEERE   <U.S. FARM REPORT - BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE DEPENDABLE, LONG LASTING, CHEVY SILVERADO.>

QUARTERLY GRAIN STOCKS
NOW FOR THE NEWS THAT MOVED THE MARKETS THIS  WEEK...USDA'S RELEASING ITS QUARTERLY GRAIN STOCKS NUMBERS FRIDAY. HARVEST IS PICKING UP STEAM IN THE NORTHERN STATES. THE LATEST CROP PROGRESS REPORT PUTTING CORN HARVESTAT 11-PERCENT OVERALL, SIX POINTS BEHIND THE FIVE YEAR AVERAGE. SOYBEAN HARVEST SITS AT TEN PERCENT, TWO POINTS BEHIND AVERAGE. BREAKING IT DOWN ALL FIVE STATES IN THE CORN BELT ARE BEHIND, MOST ARE SINGLE DIGITS, BUT ILLINOIS CORN HARVEST IS 13 POINTS BEHIND. OF THE 18 STATES THAT "NASS" SURVEYS FOR CORN, ONLY TEXAS IS ACTUALLY AHEAD OF THE AVERAGE. AS FAR AS MATURITY - ILLINOIS, MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN ARE ALL AT LEAST 20 POINTS BEHIND. LOOKING AT WINTER WHEAT 24-PERCENT IS PLANTED. IT'S JUST 14-PERCENT IN KANSAS.

CATTLE MARKETS
CATTLE MARKETS SEEING TURBULANCETHIS WEEK FOLLOWING A BEARISH CATTLE ON FEED REPORT FROM USDA. USDA COUNTING 10 POINT 5 MILLION HEAD IN AUGUST. THAT'S UP 4 PERCENT YEAR OVER YEAR. HOWEVER, PLACEMENTS WERE THE LARGEST FOR AN AUGUST SINCE 2012-THAT CAUGHT ANALYSTS BY SURPRISE. 3 PERCENT...EVEN HIGHER IN THE HEAVIER WEIGHTS--ANALYSTS SAY THAT WILL WEIGH HEAVILY ON MARKETS IN FIRST QUARTER OF NEXT YEAR. MARKETINGSIN AUGUST WERE UP SIX PERCENT TO JUST UNDER 2 MILLION HEAD.

QUARTERLY HOGS AND PIGS
ON THURSDAY THE LATEST HOGS AND PIGS NUMBERS CAME OUT FROM USDA. HOG INVENTORIES CLIMBING TWO PERCENT FROM A YEAR. AND UP THREE PERCENT OVER JUNE AT 73-AND-A-HALF MILLION HEAD. BREEDING INVENTORY IS UP SLIGHTLY FROM LAST QUARTER. AND THE MARKET HOG NUMBERS IN AT 67-AND-A-HALF MILLION HEAD, UP THREE PERCENT YEAR OVER YEAR. THE PIG CROP ALSO CLIMBING TWO PERCENTAGE POINTS. CHRIS HURT/PURDUE AG ECONOMIST: "RIGHT NOW STEADY AS YOU GO. WE'RE INCREASING PORK PRODUCTION 2-3 PERCENT THAT LOOKS LIKE THAT'S GOING TO CONTINUE AS WE PROCEEDON THROUGH 2018." SO WE'RE STILL GOING TO SEE MARGIN TIGHTEN UP SOME FOR LATE 2017 AND 2018 BUT THOSE FEED PRICES IF WE SEE THEM LOWER ARE GOING TO BE SOMEWHAT HELPFUL TO MARGINS.

FED KEEPING EYE ON ECONOMY
THE FEDERAL RESERVE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THE GENERAL ECONOMY. FED CHAIR JANET YELLEN SAYING THE PLAN IS TO CONTINUE GRADUAL RATE HIKES DESPITE BROAD UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE PATH OF INFLATION. MEANWHILE, REVISED SECOND QUARTER NUMBERS FROM THE COMMERCE  DEPARTMENT INDICATING THE GROSS  DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) OF THE U-S INCREASED 3.1 PERCENT FROM APRIL TO JUNE. THAT IS THE FASTEST GROWTH RATE IN MORE THAN TWO YEARS. THIRD QUARTER HOWEVER, IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A HIT DUE TO THE CHALLENGES ASSOCIATED WITH RECENT HURRICANES.AGRICULTURE’S NATIONAL FORECAST IS BROUGHT TO YOU BY ILEVO SEED TREATMENT FROM BAYER.”

WEATHER
THOSE ARE THE HEADLINES...METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH WEATHER... MIKE THE DROUGHT MONITOR GIVES A LONG TERM LOOK AT MOISTURE BUT SOME DROUGHT AREAS HAVE SEEN RAIN RECENTLY. YEAH THAT'S RIGHT CLINTON SOME OF THE AREAS IN MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS HAVE BEEN GETTING RAIN FOR A CHANGE. AND THAT MEANS WE'VE SEEN A REDUCTION IN THE DROUGHT MONITOR THERE. IT'S STILL PRETTY BAD IN THE LONG TERM. BUT YOU WILL NOTICE HOW WE'RE GOING TO SEE THINGS GET A LITTLE WORSE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE THE PAST FOUR WEEKS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. SO THIS WHOLE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO TEXAS HAS BEEN TURNING DRIER AND DRIER WITH VERY LITTLE RAIN COMING DOWN AND IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE A WHOLE LOT. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK. BUT THOSE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO GET MORE. SO YOU KNOW THAT'S KIND OF THE PATTERN THAT WE'VE GOTTEN OURSELVES INTO. SO LET'S GO DAY BY DAY STORM SYSTEM NOT AN OVERLY WET ONE BUT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS CENTRAL ROCKIES SOME OF THAT WILL BE SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH THE GULF COAST VERY WE'LL SPREAD SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE THE WARM AIR COMES SURGING BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES AFTER A VERY PLEASANT WEEKEND BY WEDNESDAY THEN THAT FIRST SYSTEM MOVING RESEARCH IN CANADA WEAKENING NORMAL'S WIPED OUT COLD  FRONT WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. SOME MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THEN BECOMES A PRETTY WET SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN CANADA. BY THE END OF THE WEEK JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DOWN ALONG THAT COLD FRONT AS THE WARM AIR TRIES TO HOLD ON IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. WE'LL BE CHECKING YOUR LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK COMING UP DURING OUR NEXT HALF HOUR.

TEASE
ALRIGHT THANKS MIKE. WE'LL TALK WEATHER, MARKETS AND SO MUCH MORE COMING UP NEXT WITH OUR GUESTS JOHN PAYNE AND DUSTIN JOHNSON. ROUND TABLES BEGIN AFTER THE BREAK.

ROUNDTABLE 1
WELCOME BACK TO US FARM REPORT OUR GUEST HERE TODAY DUSTIN JOHNSON OF YOU AND JOHN PAYNE WITH DANIELS AT MARKETING. THANK YOU BOTH FOR BEING HERE. BIG STOCKS REPORT CAME OUT FRIDAY DUSTIN WE'LL START WITH YOU. YOUR FIRST IMPRESSION AND YOUR THOUGHTS ON WHAT YOU SAW. SURE. WELL THE CORN AND SOYBEAN STOCKS BOTH CAME IN BELOW THE AVERAGE GUESS. AND YOU KNOW ONCE AGAIN WE'RE LOOKING AT EARLY IN THE YEAR VERY LARGE SOYBEAN STOCKS YOU KNOW PROJECTING MAYBE EVEN AGAIN WE'RE LOOKING AT EARLY IN THE YEAR VERY LARGE SOYBEAN STOCKS YOU KNOW PROJECTING MAYBE EVEN UP TO HALF A BILLION BUSHELS. AND NOW WE COME TO THE END OF THE YEAR. WE'RE DOWN TO 300 AGAIN. CLEARLY OUR DEMAND IS STILL VERY STRONG AND KEPT THAT PACE UP. AND JOHN WE CONTINUE TO USE THIS CROP UP. ANYTHING SURPRISING TO YOU ABOUT THIS STOCK REPORT. WELL YOU KNOW I MEAN I THINK THAT THE BEAN NUMBERS OBVIOUSLY ARE GOING TO BE THE HEADLINE HERE. AND JUST I THINK THIS IS YEAR OVER YEAR THING THAT WE'VE BEEN RUNNING INTO ESPECIALLY ON THE SOYBEAN SIDE THAT YOU GO INTO THESE WAS THE REASON I THINK THAT'S THE IMPORTANT THING HERE TO NOTE HERE IN THE COMING DAYS YOU CAN START TO HEAR PROJECTIONS FOR WHERE WE'RE GOING TO BE A YEAR FROM NOW AND YOU MIGHT HEAR 450 MILLION FOR BEANS 400 MILLION FROM BEANS. THAT WAS THE CASE A YEAR AGO AND IT WAS REALLY THE CASE AND YOUR PRIOR. ME JUST CONTINUE TO CHEW THROUGH THIS PRODUCT FASTER THAN WE THINK. SO BUDGETS AREN'T HOLDING. AND I THINK IT'S SOMETHING TO REMEMBER HERE AS WE GO IN THE SOUTH AMERICAN GROWING SEASON AND THEN PLANTING ACREAGE A COUPLE OF MONTHS DOWN THE ROAD. YES AND THAT'S A GOOD PROBLEM TO HAVE THE RIGHT CHEWING THROUGH THE STOCKS. I MEAN THAT'S A GOOD PROBLEM TO HAVE. WE NEED BUYERS FOR OUR PRODUCT. I DO THINK THOUGH THAT GOING DOWN THE LINE TO THAT POINT ON THE SOYBEAN DEMAND EVENTUALLY THAT'S GOING TO HAVE TO TAPER OFF. YOU KNOW CHINA'S BEEN GROWING AT A VERY AGGRESSIVE PACE. WE ARE STARTING TO SEE THEM MOVE INTO THE ETHANOL SECTOR THAT THE DD GS ALONE FROM THAT COULD START TO DISPLACE SOME OF THAT SOY MEAL DEMAND. SO MAYBE IT SLOWS THAT A LITTLE BIT. AND WE ALSO HAVE THIS CALL TO ACTION FROM THE REST OF THE WORLD TO GROW THE BEANS AS WELL. SO WE ARE GOING TO HAVE SOME COMPETITION TO COME IN WITH THIS. YEAH. AND WE WERE TALKING EARLIER JOHN AS YOU SAID THAT YOU KNOW MAYBE THERE'S SOME SOME NUMBERS HERE IN WHEAT THAT YOU FOUND PRETTY INTERESTING GIVING SOMEONE THE GROWING CONDITIONS THAT WE SAW ESPECIALLY IN UPPER MIDWEST RIGHT. AND I THINK THE HEADLINE TAKEAWAY THAT WILL HAVE TODAY WILL BE THE CARRIER NUMBERS FOR THE SPRING WHEAT CROP. YOU KNOW I THINK I WAS HERE THREE OR FOUR MONTHS AGO IN THE HEIGHT OF THE DROUGHT AND A LOT OF FOLKS THINKING WE'D SEE SUB 300 MILLION BUSHEL CROP THAT CAME OUT OF 420. SO YOU KNOW I THINK WE'VE STILL RALLIED INTO THE CLOSE ON THIS AND THAT'S A GOOD SIGN FOR WHEAT. BUT AGAIN I THINK YOU KNOW THESE THESE WEATHER RALLIES THAT YOU GET PROVIDED THE FUNDS COME IN AND SORT OF BY THE YOU KNOW THE SCARY SCENARIOS THAT COME OUT OF ANY WEATHER RALLY THEY'VE BEEN SELLING OPPORTUNITIES FOR FARMERS AND I THINK IF YOU'RE MOVING OVER TO THE CORN MAYBE THE SOYBEAN SIDE IT CAN BE A LITTLE BIT SCARY TO DO THIS BUT I THINK YOU GET A WEATHER OUT OF SOUTH AMERICAN PRODUCTION AND CORN. I THINK THAT'S YOUR OPPORTUNITY AND ANYTHING YOU KNOW AUSTRALIAN DRIVEN OR YOU KNOW WINTER WHEAT AND I THINK GIVEN THE STOCKS THAT WE HAVE RIGHT NOW YOU HAVE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THAT. I DON'T KNOW WHERE THE PRICE ACTION COMES. DO YOU AGREE. YEAH I THINK THE CURE IS VERY WIDE AND THERE ARE SOME PREMIUMS ARE CURRENTLY BEING OFFERED IN CORN OUT FORWARD THAT ARE ACCEPTABLE FOR THOSE GUYS THAT DO HAVE THAT ON FARM STORAGE. AND YOU KNOW I THINK TODAY'S PRICES SHOULD BE CONSIDERED EVEN TALKED ABOUT ON FARM STORAGE FOR ME JUST A LITTLE BIT BECAUSE THE AMOUNT OF CROPS STILL ON FARM IS BIG. I MEAN SOYBEANS RIGHT 112 PERCENT UP FROM A YEAR AGO. YOU LOOK AT CORN IT'S UP FROM A YEAR AGO. WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THAT. AND DO WE HAVE ROOM TO PUT A NEW CROP IN THERE. YEAH. WELL I THINK THE PRICE HAS BEEN A BIG PART OF THAT. YOU KNOW A LOT OF GUYS NEVER GOT THE PRICE THAT THEY REALLY WANTED TO RECEIVE OUT OF THE CROP. WE SAW COMMERCIAL STORAGE AND DP IS A VERY POPULAR THING AS WELL. SO IT DOES GO BACK TO THAT PERCEPTION OF PRICE. WE DIDN'T GET THE RALLIES THAT WE SAW THE PREVIOUS TWO SUMMERS AND TO FOR A LOT OF PRODUCERS THEY JUST WAS NOT THE LEVELS THEY WANTED TO SELL. AND I THINK THAT'S A BIG PRODUCT OF THAT. ON TOP OF THE FACT THAT WE HAD MORE CORN YOU KNOW JUST COMING INTO THIS PERIOD AS WELL.



ROUNDTABLE 2
WELCOME TO US FARM REPORT DUSTIN JOHNSON JOHN PAYNE OUR GUESTS HERE AT THE AGROBUSINESS DESK TODAY. LET'S TALK ABOUT HARVEST BECAUSE ALL OF THE REPORTS THAT WE'RE SEEING I THINK ON SOCIAL MEDIA AND IN DIFFERENT PLACES SEEM TO SAY THAT HARVESTING IS GOING ON RIGHT. IT DOESN'T LOOK TOO BAD WHEN? YEAH. YOU KNOW WE'VE HAD A LOT OF ANECDOTAL YIELD REPORTS COME THROUGH AND YOU KNOW COME THROUGH THE E-MAILS AND STUFF LIKE THAT. I THINK YOU KNOW IT'S ALWAYS HARD TO GET A REAL GAUGE FROM THAT NECESSARILY BUT EXACTLY. WE DON'T KNOW THE FULL PICTURE. RIGHT. BUT I THINK YOU KNOW JUDGING TRENDS, YOU CAN TELL WHEN IT'S NOT A DISASTER. AND THAT'S REALLY WHAT THE MARKET WAS MOST CONCERNED ABOUT IN THE SUMMER HERE GOING INTO THE END OF THE YEAR WOULD THERE BE A YIELD SURPRISE ESPECIALLY ON THOSE CROPS THAT ARE HARD TO JUDGE LIKE SOYBEANS. AND SO FAR WE'VE HEARD SOME REALLY GOOD NUMBERS AND MAYBE THE USDA IS NOT TOO FAR OFF ON THEIR ESTIMATE. MAYBE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOYBEAN YIELDS TO CREEP ABOUT 50 ON THE NATIONAL AVERAGE BY THE END. YOU KNOW WE JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND FIND OUT.  JOHN WHAT DO YOU THINK. I THINK THEY'RE THERE. I MEAN I THINK THE LACK OF SQUAWK THAT WE SEE ON ONLINE COMBINED WITH THE EARLIER REPORTS THAT HE MENTIONED IN BEANS REALLY CORN HARVEST HAS SLOWED A LITTLE BIT. YOU KNOW FOLKS SEEM TO BE LEAVING THE CORN IN THE FIELD WITH THE BEAN EARLY NUMBERS. NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. I'VE HEARD A HUNDRED BUSHELS AN ACRE YOU KNOW 80 ACROSS A LOT OF THE STATE. AND THESE WERE AREAS THAT WERE DRY MIDSUMMER. BUT I JUST THINK THE LACK OF THE LACK OF HEAT UNITS IN IN AUGUST COMBINED WITH YOU KNOW PRETTY GOOD EARLY EARLY MOISTURE WAS YOU KNOW BIG BIG CROP. I THINK IT'S GOING TO BE THERE. SO AS WE GO INTO THIS REPORT IN A COUPLE OF WEEKS YOU KNOW I THINK THERE COULD BE SOME ANTICIPATION THAT THE USDA IS GOING TO RAISE YIELDS AGAIN, BUT I THINK YOU GOT TO FOCUS BACK ON THE DEMAND STORY ON THESE BREAKS AND I THINK THAT'S WHERE THE VALUE IS GOING TO COME YOU KNOW ON THE BUY SIDE.YOU KNOW WE TALK ABOUT THOSE OCTOBER REPORTS THAT COME OUT HERE IN ABOUT 10 DAYS OR SO. ARE YOU WATCHING ANYTHING SPECIFICALLY FROM IT? SO HARD TO GET A GAUGE AGAIN. THE USDA IS REALLY THE BOOTS ON THE GROUND AND WHO WE'RE GOING TO RELY ON FOR THE ACTUAL YIELD IN THE END. BUT YOU KNOW WE START TO GET A JUDGE YOU KNOW FROM THAT SEPTEMBER REPORT THAT AGAIN YOU KNOW WE'RE GETTING BACK CLOSER TO THOSE TREND LINE YIELDS. THE MARKET REALLY NEEDED TO SEE A REDUCTION ON THOSE TO NOT TO GET OUTSIDE OF THESE BIG CARRYOUT SITUATIONS THAT WE'RE IN. NOT JUST IN THE U.S. AND THE WORLD. AND SINCE WE'RE NOT SEEING THAT, YOU KNOW ANY EXTRA BUSHELS GOES RIGHT ON TO THE CARRY OUT AND THAT COULD BE YOU KNOW AGAIN A PRODUCT OF THE ENVIRONMENT WE'RE IN AND MAYBE A REASON TO YOU KNOW SET YOUR SIGHTS A LITTLE BIT LOWER ON THAT PRICE AND JUST FOCUS ON SELLING THAT EXTRA BUSHELS THAT YOU HAVE TO GET THAT PROFITABILITY RATHER THAN LOOKING FOR THE EXTRA PRICE THAT MAY NOT COME DOWN THE ROAD. YOU KNOW JOHN WE WERE TALKING ABOUT THAT OCTOBER REPORT. ONE THING YOU'LL BE WATCHING IS COTTON WE CAN ACTUALLY GET SOME REAL NUMBERS FROM COTTON AND WE THINK AFTER THESE HURRICANES? THE COTTON IS GOING TO BE I THINK THE MAIN STORY FOR FOR US. THE SEPTEMBER REPORT SHOWED FANTASTIC PRODUCTION SPECIFICALLY OF NORTH TEXAS AND IN GEORGIA AND GEORGIA WAS HIT BY IRMA. AND WE'LL GET AN UPDATE ON THE YOU KNOW THE RESULTS OF THAT. AND SOME BIG CROP PROGRESS THAT HAS DROP IN THE LAST TWO WEEKS. AND THEN ALSO HOW MUCH THE DAMAGE HARVEY DID TO CROP THAT WAS ALREADY HARVESTED--A LOT OF IT SITTING IN MODUELS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE REAL INTERESTING FACT THAT IN NORTHWEST NORTH TEXAS AREA WE'RE SITTING ON I THINK RECORD YIELDS AT THIS POINT. IT IS RAINING RIGHT NOW AND IF YOU'RE WATCHING THIS YOU'RE PROBABLY SITTING WATCHING THE RAIN OUTSIDE MAYBE FIVE SIX INCHES HAVE ALREADY COME DOWN SO YOU KNOW IT'S DIFFICULT THIS TIME OF YEAR TO TRY TO SELL A GOOD CROP BECAUSE THERE'S SO MUCH THAT CAN HAPPEN WHEN THESE BULLS OPEN. BUT FOR US WE WILL GET A CONTINUED PUSH TOWARDS COTTON ACREAGE IN THE COMING YEAR. YOU KNOW IF YOU HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY ON THESE RALLIES THAT COME FROM WEATHER I THINK GETTING HEDGES ON FOR DIFFERED CONTRACTS IF YOU ARE GOING TO BE SWITCHING TO COTTON YOU MIGHT HAVE A CHANCE TO GET 70. THE U.S. HAS BEEN PRETTY GOOD ON THEIR TARGETS TO BRING THEM DOWN HERE IN THE NEXT COUPLE COUPLE OF MONTHS I THINK WE'LL SEE MID 60S. ALL RIGHT GUYS SO ON THE MAJOR GRAINS LET'S GET BACK TO THAT A LITTLE BIT. WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE. HOW DO WE START PREPARING OURSELVES FOR THE REST OF THIS YEAR FOR NEXT YEAR. YOU KNOW OBVIOUSLY THE GOAL HERE IS TO STAY IN BUSINESS. WHAT IS A MARKETING PLAN START TO SHAPE UP LIKE? WELL YOU KNOW I THINK I'VE TALKED ABOUT THIS A LOT ALREADY AS YOU KNOW. IT'S KIND OF TEMPERING EXPECTATIONS A LITTLE BIT. I THINK THE REAL DISLODGE HERE IS THE FACT THAT WE HAVE WAY MORE ACRES TO COMPETE WITH AROUND THE GLOBE IN THE BLACK SEA REGION. THE INVESTMENTS ARE GOING ON IN ARGENTINA THE AMOUNT OF AREA OF HARVEST OF AREA THAT'S BEING GROWN DOWN THERE IS JUST A REAL BANE FOR US. YOU KNOW THAT THE INFRASTRUCTURE IS BUILT WHAT ARE THEY GOING TO DO. THEY'RE GOING TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AND WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO TRY TO BE A LOWER COST PRODUCER WITH LARGER BUSHELS TO COMPETE. AGAIN IT'S UNFORTUNATELY THE PRICE TARGETS THAT WE'VE SEEN 2010 2014 REGION MAY NOT BE AROUND WHEN WE HAVE SUCH A LARGE COMPETITION GLOBALLY. WHAT DO YOU THINK I MEAN CAN A LOWER DOLLAR IMPACT SOMEBODY'S DEMAND MAKE US A PLAYER OUT HERE. WELL WE'VE HAD LOWER DOLLARS FOR THE LAST YEAR. WE HAVE WE HAVE SEEN DEMAND COME IN A LOT OF THE DEMAND ON THE CORN SIDE WAS DUE TO THE LACK OF PRODUCTION FROM BRAZIL YEAR AGO AND THEY HAVE A CROP. SO THAT WILL BE IT FOR ME THE MOST INTERESTING THING IS HOW DOES THAT DYNAMIC WORK ITSELF IN U.S. EXPORTS STORY BEING SUCH A STRONG PART OF THE RALLY. WE SAW YOU KNOW BETWEEN THANKSGIVING AND FEBRUARY A YEAR AGO. BUT FOR ME I MEAN I THINK YOU KNOW BOTH OF US ARE ON THE HEDGE SIDE AND USE THE BOARD AND YOU HAVE TO FIGURE IF YOU HAVE CORN AND YOU HAVE BEANS TO SELL AND YOU NEED THE MONEY. SELL THEM. TAKE IN THE REVENUE AND YOU KNOW USE THE BOARD FOR WHAT IT IS. THEREFORE YOU KNOW THERE'S LESS MARGIN AVAILABLE NOW FOR FARMERS AS FAR AS PROFIT MARGIN GOES. SO TO SIT AND WAIT ON YOU KNOW 250000 BUSHELS OF REVENUE DOLLARS AND THE REVENUE TO TURN INTO $275000 WORTH OF REVENUE HE MIGHT BE GIVING UP TO $10000 IN INTEREST FOR THAT. SO YOU KNOW USE THE TOOLS THAT ARE OUT THERE I THINK THERE'S A LOT OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRICES TO RALLY. YOU CAN SELL YOUR GREEN PART OF IT AS WELL. ALL RIGHT GENTLEMEN WE'LL GET YOUR FINAL THOUGHTS WHEN WE COME BACK WITH MORE U.S. FARM REPORT AFTER THE BREAK.

MARKETS NOW
TIME FOR MARKETS NOW FINAL THOUGHTS JOHN WE'LL START WITH YOU. WHAT WHAT HAPPENS IN THE OCTOBER 12TH REPORT I THINK IS BIG IF THE MARKET BREAKS IN SOYBEANS AND IT COMES BACK WE MIGHT HAVE SEEN A LOW FOR A WHILE. OK. DUSTIN? I THINK GOING TO A LOT OF THE DECISIONS ARE GOING TO BE MADE RIGHT NOW. PEOPLE ARE WONDERING YOU KNOW WHAT SHOULD I PUT MY CORNER IN DP I PAY THIS COMMERCIAL STORAGE RATE. AND WE'VE SEEN YOU KNOW YEAR AFTER YEAR THAT'S BEEN A HIGH COST THING HASN'T REALLY PLAYED OUT AND THAT'S WHAT WE WOULD THINK AGAIN THIS YEAR. THERE'S OTHER THINGS TO DO BESIDES THAT IF YOU WANT TO TRY TO KEEP THAT UPSIDE OPEN IF YOU REALLY ARE FORCED TO SELL AT HARVEST AND AREN'T HAPPY ABOUT IT. ALL RIGHT. THANK YOU BOTH FOR BEING HERE. WE REALLY APPRECIATE YOU JOINING ME WITH TIME OUT OF THE SEAT TODAY THE HOT SEAT. APPRECIATE YOU BOTH BEING HERE. WE'LL BE BACK WITH MORE JOHN PHELPS IN JUST A MINUTE.

JOHN’S WORLD
IN TIMES OF TOUGH MARKETS AND FALLING FARM INCOMES--JOHN PHIPPS HAS FOUND HIMSELF DOING MORE BELT TIGHTENING--AND REPLACING MORE BELTS. HERE'S MORE FROM JOHN'S WORLD. FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO LIVED WITH SOMEONE WHO LIVED THROUGH THE  GREAT DEPRESSION, THIS DITTY MAY SOUND FAMILIAR. "USE IT UP, WEAR IT OUT. MAKE DO OR DO WITHOUT" LONG AFTER I'VE FORGOTTEN MY ANNIVERSARY DATE, I PROBABLY REMEMBER THAT TIRESOME ADVICE FROM MY FATHER. I MAY BE THERE ALREADY. ANYWAY, AARON AND I HAVE QUIETLY BEEN EMBRACING THIS HARD TIMES RULE OF THUMB. OUR INVESTMENT IN MACHINERY HAS SLOWED TO A TRICKLE, ALTHOUGH WE ARE SPENDING ON REPAIRS AND UPGRADES. BOTH OF US HAVE THE FINANCIAL SCARS FROM TRADING FOR TAX REASONS LIKE SECTION 179 DEPRECIATION AND FOR COMFORT OR NEW GADGETRY. THOSE ARE NOW LUXURIES THAT THREE-DOLLAR CORN WON'T SUPPORT. IRONICALLY FOR MACHINERY MANUFACTURERS, THE QUALITY AND DURABILITY OF FARM EQUIPMENT WILL LET US STRETCH OUT THE USABLE LIFETIME OF EQUIPMENT TO SURPRISING EXTREMES. TENDER CARE AND FEEDING WILL KEEP THESE HORSES WORKING FOR A LONG TIME, WE HAVE FOUND. PERHAPS OUR SITUATION IS MORE UNCERTAIN THAN SOME, OR MAYBE WE HAVE DIFFERENT FINANCIAL PRIORITIES, BUT I DON'T THINK WE ARE ALONE IN OUR PARSIMONIOUS APPROACH TO ROLLING CAPITAL. MANY OF US ARE GETTING MORE AT EASE WITH OPERATING YESTERDAY'S MACHINERY. NOT HAVING ANY MACHINERY DEBT SEEMS TO BE A HIT WITH OUR BANKER AS WELL. WHILE WE KNOW THIS CAN'T CONTINUE FOREVER, CAREFUL MAINTENANCE HAS ALREADY STRETCHED IT OUT LONGER THAN WE HAD IMAGINED. MY ADMIRATION FOR THE ENGINEERING AND CONSTRUCTION OF MODERN MACHINERY HAS RISEN AS WELL. IF ANYBODY IS A VICTIM OF THEIR OWN SUCCESS, IT COULD FARM MACHINERY MAKERS MORE THAN FARMERS. THE PROBLEM IS AS WE RESET OUR EXPECTATIONS FOR USEFUL MACHINERY LIFETIMES, IT WILL AFFECT OUR BUYING HABITS WELL INTO THE   FUTURE. AFTER ALL, DAD NEVER DID LOOSEN HIS GRIP ON EVERY NICKEL. A LIFELONG HABIT IT SEEMS. THANKS JOHN. DON'T GO ANYWHERE MORE U.S. FARM REPORT IS COMING UP. INCLUDING DETAILS ABOUT SYNGENTA'S MOVE TO SETTLE A MASSIVE CLASS ACTION LAWSUIT. AND WE'LL CHECK ON HARVEST AS COMBINES ROLL IN THE CORN BELT. STAY WITH US.

HEADLINES
I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS IN FOR TYNE MORGAN HERE'S WHAT'S COMING UP ON THIS HALF HOUR OF U.S. FARM REPORT. TAX REFORM--WILL WASHINGTON WORK FOR AGRICULTURE. HARVEST ROLLS NORTH... "I'MBETSYJIBBEN, HOW DOES THE CROP LOOK IN TWO OF THE THREE "I' STATES? HEAR FROM FARMERS AHEAD IN THE SHOW." A NAFTA FINALE-- ON CUSTOMER SUPPORT WITH JOHN PHIPPS-- . AND TRACTOR TALES GOES GREEN

TAX REFORM
NOW FOR THE HEADLINES...REFORM OF THE NATION'S TAX CODE IS WASHINGTON'S NEWEST FOCUS. FARM GROUPS HOPING IT MEANS THE 'DEATH' OF INHERITANCE TAXES AND LOWER TAX RATES FOR FARM AND RANCH BUSINESSES. PRESIDENT TRUMP WAS IN INDIANAPOLIS WEDNESDAY TO   ROLL-OUT HIS PLAN TO OVERHAUL THE U-S TAX CODE. THIS WOULD BE THE FIRST MAJOR REWRITE OF TAX RULES IN THREE DECADES. AS A STARTING POINT THE PRESIDENT WANTS THE REPUBLICAN-LED CONGRESS TO CUT THE CORPORATE TAX   RATE FROM NEARLY 40-PERCENT, DOWN TO 20-PERCENT. TAX  BRACKETS WOULD GO FROM SEVEN DOWN TO THREE. AND FOR THE LOWEST INCOME EARNERS WHO PAY FEDERAL TAXES, THE BLUEPRINT WOULD DOUBLE THE STANDARD DEDUCTIONS. "WE WILL PROTECT OUR FARMERS OUR RANCHERS AND OUR SMALL BUSINESSES AND WE WILL MAKE TAXES SIMPLE EASY AND FAIR FOR ALL AMERICANS." INDIANA FARMER KIP TOM WAS INVITED TO ATTEND THE EVENT IN INDIANAPOLIS. HE SPOKE TO THE PRESIDENT ABOUT THE NEED TO MAKE CHANGES TO ESTATE TAXES...OR THE DEATH TAX AS ITS CALLED. "THAT GREAT HERITAGE COULD COME TO AN END BECAUSE OF THE DEATH TAX OR THE ESTATE TAX AND COULD MAKE IT IMPOSSIBLE FOR HIM TO PASS THAT LEGACY TO HIS WONDERFUL FAMILY. WE'RE NOT GOING TO  LET THAT HAPPEN. WE ARE NOT GOING TO ALLOW THE DEATH TAX TO STEAL AWAY THE AMERICAN DREAM FROM THESE GREAT GREAT FAMILIES MANY OF WHICH ARE IN THIS ROOM." TAX EXPERTS  WARN KEEPING STEPPED BASIS MAY BE MORE   IMPORTANT. STEPPED-UP BASIS ALLOWS FOR FIGURING PROPERTY VALUE, NOT FROM THE TIME OF PURCHASE, BUT FROM THE TIME OF  AN OWNER'S DEATH, HELPING LIMIT TAX LIABILITY. OTHER AG PRIORITIES FOR TAX REFORM INCLUDE CASH ACCOUNTING AND SECTION 179 BUSINESS EXPENSING

WOTUS COMMENTS END
WHILE EFFORTS CONTINUE TO DO-AWAY WITH THE MUCH-MALIGNED "WATERS OF THE U-S" RULE, THE E-P-A IS   WORKING ON A REPLACEMENT. EPA ADMINISTRATOR SCOTT PRUITT SAYS HE HOPES TO  PROPOSE A NEW FORM OF THE "WOTUS" RULE IN EARLY 2018. THE WATERS OF THE U-S RULE PUT ON THE REGULATORY BOOKS IN 2015. IT'S MEANT TO DETERMINE WHICH WATERWAYS ARE UNDER FEDERAL JURISDICTION.

EPA BIOFUELS COMMENT PERIOD
MEANWHILE, THE E-P-A OPENING A COMMENT PERIOD ON A PLAN TO REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF BIODIESELBLENDED INTO  THE FUEL SUPPLY. THAT'S COUNTER TO WHAT CONGRESS PASSED IN THE RENEWABLE FUELS STANDARD. THE R-F-S  REQUIRES THE INDUSTRY TO USE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF BIOFUELS. EPA'S NOTICE SAYS IT'S TARGETING BIODIESEL ADVANCED BIOFUELSBECAUSE OF AN EXPIRED TAX CREDIT...RESULTING IN HIGMEANWHILE OUT IN THE FIELD, SYNGENTA AGREEING TO SETTLE TENS OF THOUSANDS OF U-S LAWSUITS BROUGHT BY FARMERS OVER THE COMPANY'S GENETICALLY ENGINEERED  CORN SEED. THE SETTLEMENT NEARLY ONE AND A HALF BILLION DOLLARS. IF YOU REMEMBER, SYNGENTA STARTED SELLING ITS VIPTERA  BRAND CORN SEED TO FARMERS IN THIS COUNTRY FOR THE 2011 GROWING SEASON. BUT AT THAT TIME, CHINA HAD NOT APPROVED USE OF THAT G-E SEED. THAT MOVE -FARMERS ALLEGED -PUT THE CHINESE MARKET  IN JEOPARDY FOR ALL U-S CORN EXPORTS TO THAT COUNTRY. AND AS A RESULT CORN PRICES DROPPED. THE SWISS-BASED COMPANY SAYS IT WILL ESTABLISH A FUND TO PAY CLAIMS ONCE THE AGREEMENT IS APPROVED BY THE   COURTS.

WEATHER
AGRICULTURE’S NATIONAL FORECAST IS BROUGHT TO YOU BY KAWASAKI AND THE NEW MULE PRO FXR SIDE BY SIDE.  RIDE LIKE A BOSS WITH HIGH END STYLING AND RUGGED CAPABILITY.” THAT'S IT FOR NEWS... METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH THE NATIONAL FORECAST. MIKE WITH HARVEST PICKING UP SPEED CAN ANY AREAS EXPECT RAIN SOON?YEAH THANKS CLINTON SOME AREAS OBVIOUSLY WILL GET SOME RAIN THIS WEEK BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT'S MAINLY GOING TO BE OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. SO THE PLAIN STATES WESTERN PLAINS ESPECIALLY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR GETTING RAIN THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO INTO THE    OHIO VALLEY NOT SO MUCH. THOSE AREAS HAVE BEEN DRYING OUT. BUT LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT THE JETSTREAM YOU CAN SEE THIS TROUGH TRIES TO COME EAST. NOW NOTHING DO AND THE RIDGE KIND OF HOLDS ITS OWN    THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO THE HEAT COMES BACK FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST AFTER A VERY PLEASANT WEEKEND. AND THEN AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK THE TROUGH  DOES TRY TO MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BUT IT'S GOING TO STAY WARM IN THE SOUTHEAST UNDER THIS PATTERN WITH ANOTHER TROUGH KIND OF DIVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY SUNDAY OCTOBER TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. EAST AND WEST BELOW NORMAL MAYBE A SMALL PART IN THE CENTRAL STATES IN NOVEMBER. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH BELOW NORMAL IN THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS DECEMBER. THAT'S A TOUGH CALL. I'M GOING NEAR NORMAL MOST OF THE GROWING AREAS ABOVE NORMAL OUT WEST PRECIPITATION THEN LOOKS FAIRLY DRY IN THE  CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE SOUTH NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST PROBABLY ABOVE NORMAL CLINTON.

FARM JOURNAL REPORT
WHILE FARMERS IN THE SOUTH HAVE BEEN RUNNING HARD FOR WEEKS, TO THE NORTH HARVEST OF CORN AND SOYBEANS ARE JUST NOW STARTING IN EARNEST. TWO THE EYE-STATES-- INDIANA AND ILLINOIS-- SAW THEIR SHARE OF CHALLENGES THIS GROWING SEASON. USDA SAYS ABOUT HALF OF CORN AND SOYBEANS ARE RATED GOOD TO EXCELLENT AS COMBINES RUN. A WET SPRING AND THEN DRYNESS EVEN DROUGHT IS RAISING QUESTIONS ABOUT YIELDS. NATIONAL REPORTER BETSY JIBBEN REPORTS FROM TWO OF THE THREE 'I' STATES. "CLINTON, INDIANA AND ILLINOIS RECEIVED TOO MUCH RAIN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SEASON. RAIN REFLECTIVE IN THE FIELDS AND ALSO IN THE GOVERNMENT REPORTS. AT ONE TIME, USDA SAID INDIANA HAD THE WORST CORN RATING IN THE COUNTRY. BUT AS THE SEASON EVOLVED, SO DID THE CROP," GOLDEN FIELDS ASKING TO BE HARVESTED... AS JOEL BARICKMAN ROLLS THROUGH HIS FIRST SET OF SOYBEANS. "I GOT IT GOING EARLY THIS MORNING HERE AND THE BEANS ARE ABOUT 11 OR 12 PERCENT MOISTURE, THAT'S PRETTY IDEAL," "YOU CAN'T SIT STILL EITHER BECAUSE YOU DON'T KNOW HOW THE WEATHER IS GOING TO BE. THIS IS BEAN WEATHER," BARICKMAN  DOESN'T HAVE TO HARVEST MUCH IN ANCONA, ILLINOIS TO SEE A BIG BEAN CROP IS THERE. "LAST YEAR, THE GOOD GROUND WAS AVERAGING LOW 70S WE DIDN'T QUITE GET THE MOISTURE THIS YEAR BUT SURPRINGLY, WE'RE SEEING VERY SIMILIAR YIELDS TO WHAT WE SAW LAST YEAR," JOE ZUMWALT AND HIS CREW ARE AT IT TOO. "WELL, MY LEAST FUN JOB IS THE GRAIN CART. GUESS WHERE I'M AT TODAY - LAUGHS," HE'S DOWN THE ROAD IN WARSAW, ILLINOIS - WHERE ZUMWALT SAYS IS HIS OWN LUCKY SPOT. "WE'RE PROBABLY LOOKING AT LOWER 90S AT THIS FIELD BEHIND ME. OVERALL, FARM AVERAGES SHOULD BE 80 ON SOYBEANS AND 220 TO 240 ON CORN. ME: ARE YOU AMAZED WITH THAT? HIMM: QUITE, ESPECIALLY WITH THE ADVERSE WEATHER WE HAD THIS YEAR," HE'S REFERRING TO LATE APRIL STORM WHICH BROUGHT A DELUGE OF RAIN TO MUCH OF ILLINOIS RIGHT IN THE HEAT OF PLANTING. "THOSE HEAVY RAINS IN APRIL REALLY SEPARATED THE GOOD SOIL FROM THE BAD. I THINK YOU'RE GOING TO SEE WITH HARVEST, YOU'RE GOING TO SEE PEOPLE WITH EXCELLENT YIELDS AND YOU'RE ALSO GOING TO SEE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF ACRES HURT," BARICKMAN SAYS HE PLANTED SOME OF HIS BEST GROUND BEFORE THE STORM WHICH HELPED. " WE DID HAVE SOME POPULAT ION LOSS IWTH THE CORN THAT WAS PLANTED BEFORE THAT BUT AT THE SAME TIME, I THINK WE'RE AHEAD OF THAT CORN BECAUSE IF WE WOULD AHVE WAITED, YOU WOULD HAVE BEEN 2 OR 3 WEEKS LATER GETTING THAT CORN IN THE GROUND," "I'D SAY WITH MY WHOLE FARM, MY AVERAGE MIGHT COME IN SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO MY APH," INDIANA RECIVED TOO MUCH MOISTURE EARLIER IN THE YEAR   TOO STRETCHING PLANTING LONGER THAN MANY WOULD HAVE LIKED. "THAT WAS THE MOST I EVER REPLANTED. IT WAS LOW GROUND AREAS, NOT WHOLE FIELDS," "THIS IS THE SECOND TIME WE'VE HAD A REPLANT CLAIM AND IT WAS FOR 60 PERCENT OF THE CORN WE PLANTED AND 20 PERCENT OF OUR EARLY PLANTED BEANS," SIGNS OF DIFFERENT MATURITIES YOU CAN SEE AROUND THE STATE. "THIS HAS A LONG WAYS TO GO. THIS IS GETTING CLOSER TO THE FINISH LINE," PROOF FOUND IN THE REPLANTED CORN FIELDS NEAR GRABILL, INDIANA FOR FARMER JIM SMITH. "IT DOES HAVE POTENTIAL. JUST NEED DAYS LIKE TO DAY AND WE'LL GET THERE. MIGHT BE THANKSGIVING BUT WE'LL GET THERE," "YOU TAKE THIS TIMES 35 THOUSAND POPULATION AND THAT'S GOOD CORN," EVEN THOUGH BRAD MY-STER MEISTER IN BOURBON, INDIANA DID NOT REPLANT *THIS* FIELD, HE'S SURPRISED WITH HOW THE MAJORITY OF THE CROP LOOKS CONSIDERING WHAT IT   WENT THROUGH DURING THE GROWING SEASON. "WE HAD A REDUCTION IN STAND COUNTS IN CONR. THAT'S GOING TO TAKE A BIT OFF THE TOP END BUT FOR THE MOST PART, IT'S GOING TO BE A GOOD CROP FOR US," BOTH HOOSIER'S HAVEN'T STARTED TO HARVEST, BUT BELIEVE THE BEAN CROP IS SURPRINGLY WELL CONSIDERING IT HAD 'WET FEET' THIS SEASON. WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BEAT OUR APH I THINK.  WE HAVE A FEW OF THOSE SHOWERS OUR NEIGHBORS DIDN'T PUSHING THE FARM FINANCIALS TOWARD THE BLACK. "BEANS WILL HAVE TO CARRY THE LOAD FOR US THIS YEAR. IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE CORN WILL," AS FARMERS WATCH THE MONITOR, THEY'RE HOPING YIELDS CAN OVER COME THIS SEASON'S HARDSHIPS  REPORTING FOR U.S. FARM REPORT, I'M BETSY JIBBEN. THANKS BETSY. ZUMWALTSAYS ONE FIELD SAMPLE CAME IN WITH AN AVERAGE OF 295 BUSHEL PER ACRE. WHILE JUST A SAMPLE IT'S THE BEST FIELD AVERAGE HE'S EVER SEEN. SWITCHING GEARS, NEXT, JOHN PHIPPS RETURNS WITH HIS INSIGHTS FROM THE CUSTOMER SUPPORT DESK. "NAFTA, PART 3, THE BIG FINISH."

CUSTOMER SUPPORT
A RECENT TRIP I TOOK TO MEXICO AHEAD OF THE NAFTA RENEGOTIATIONS WAS AN EYE OPENING LOOK AT THE STATE OF THE TRADE AGREEMENT...IT WAS FASCINATING TO MEET AND TALK WITH AMERICAN AGRICULTURE'S CUSTOMERS. JOHN PHIPPS HAS ALSO BEEN DIGGING INTO THE DEAL IN RECENT WEEKS AND SHARES HIS THOUGHTS ON POTENTIAL      OUTCOMES.IN THE LAST TWO WEEKS, WE'VE LOOKED AT SOME OF THE ISSUES AND PROBLEMS FACING NAFTA NEGOTIATORS AND THE IMPLICATIONS FOR FARMERS. THIS WEEK I'LL WANDER OUT ON A LIMB TO EXAMINE WHAT I THINK ARE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOMES. FIRST, MANY OF THE MINUTE DETAILS OF SPECIFIC ITEMS OF DEBATE COULD BE SOLVED QUICKLY BY CUTTING AND PASTING FROM THE WORK ALREADY COMPLETED FOR THE TRANSPACIFIC PARTNERSHIP – TPP. ALL THREE NAFTA PARTNERS REACHED AGREEMENT ON MANY ISSUES INCLUDING THE CONTENTIOUS CANADIAN DAIRY PROGRAM. THE ODDS OF TAKING THIS SHORTCUT ARE LOW HOWEVER, BECAUSE OF THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION AVERSION TO ANY ACCOMPLISHMENT FROM THE OBAMA ERA. SECOND, THE BIG ISSUE OF CONTENT IS PROBABLY OVERBLOWN. UNLESS PUNITIVE TARIFFS ARE SET EXTREMELY HIGH, SUPPLY CHAINS FOR AUTOS FOR EXAMPLE WILL SIMPLY PASS THE COST OF NEW TARIFFS ON TO CUSTOMERS, RATHER THAN ALTER WHERE PARTS ARE COMING FROM. A FEW PERCENTAGE POINTS WON'T ADD ANY JOBS. THIRD, THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION VIEW OF TRADE AS ZERO-SUM (I WIN, YOU LOSE), AND ITS FOCUS ON QUICK RESULTS WILL HANDICAP US NEGOTIATORS, AND MAKE ABANDONMENT OF THE PROCESS MORE LIKELY. FOURTH, TWEETS FROM THE WHITE HOUSE WILL CONFUSE THE PROCESS, AND REINFORCE THE GLOBAL BELIEF THAT ANY AGREEMENT COULD BE REPUDIATED OVERNIGHT. FOREIGN TRADING PARTNERS ARE ALREADY CREATING ALTERNATE TRADING TIES JUST IN CASE. FARMERS WHO ARE COUNTING ON THE FACT BUYERS "HAVE TO BUY FROM US" SHOULD REMEMBER HOW MUCH WE LIKED THAT TRADING POSITION FOR OIL IN THE 80'S AND HOW WE INVESTED AND WORKED TO REDUCE THAT DEPENDENCY. FIFTH, THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AMONG LEGAL EXPERTS WHETHER THE PRESIDENT HAS THE AUTHORITY TO UNILATERALLY WITHDRAW WITHOUT A CONGRESSIONAL VOTE. THAT OUTCOME WOULD INITIATE A LONG AND COMPLEX LEGAL PROCESS, DURING WHICH NAFTA COULD POSSIBLY REMAIN MUCH AS IT IS. FINALLY, THE NATURE OF THE WHOLE NAFTA PROCESS, THE WITHDRAWAL FROM TPP, AND THE CONFUSION OVER THE PARIS CLIMATE ACCORD WILL ENCOURAGE FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS TO SEEK MORE RELIABLE TRADING PARTNERS AND AGREEMENTS. THE US WILL BE A COMMERCIAL PARTNER OF LAST RESORT DUE TO OUR UNPREDICTABILITY. THIS WILL HELP CHINA, INDIA, AND EUROPE TO SET GLOBAL TRADING STANDARDS AND CAPTURE MOST OF THE GROWTH. IN SHORT, IT IS ALREADY TOO LATE TO DO NO HARM. TRADE IS BUILT SLOWLY ON REPUTATION AND RELIABILITY, AND DISMANTLED RAPIDLY WITH BLUFFS AND THREATS. WHICH LEADS US TO MY CURRENT PREDICTIONS, IN ROUGH ORDER OF PROBABILITY: 1. OUTRIGHT FAILURE – HELLO, 1993. 2. US WITHDRAWAL, COURT CHALLENGE AND ZOMBIE NAFTA 3. SOMETHING THAT LOOKS LIKE TPP FOR THREE. I'D WELCOME YOUR PREDICTIONS AS WELL. YOU CAN SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS WITH JOHN AT THE FARM REPORT MAILBAG. EMAIL MAILBAG AT US FARM REPORT DOT COM. BAXTER BLACK JOINS US NEXT FOR A BIRTHING EXPERIENCE THAT'S ANYTHING BUT BEAUTIFUL.

BAXTER BLACK
THE BEAUTY OF BIRTH IS COMMON ON THE FARM. BUT AS COWBOY POET, BAXTER BLACK TELLS IT, SOMETIMES GETTING THERE IS AN UGLY ORDEAL. IT WAS ONE OF THOSE KAMIN RACKS THAT JUST SEEM TO GET WORSE AND WORSE CLAYS BROTHER SAID HE'D NEVER SEEN A PICK-UP GIVE BIRTH WELL CLAY PARKED THE RIG GRABBED A SMALL BUCKET WITH SOME O.B. CHANGES IN APPROACH TO GAL THAT WAS CALVING AND STAYED IN THE PICKUP. DON'T LOOSE MY GOOD CHANGE, HOLLERED DAD. THE COW SPOTTED ROSE AND TROTTED OFF CLAY WENT BACK TO THE PICKUP AND CHUGGED AFTER HER. SHE MADE FOUR PASSES FROM ONE END TO THE OTHER THE SMALL PASTURE ELUDING OUR FRUSTRATED COW BIN. DAD ENCOURAGED THEM, TRY AND ROPE, HAVE HER IN THE CORNER, YOU'RE ON THE WRONG SIDE WATCH THAT HOLE. HE'S RIGHT HANDED, YOU NINCOMPOOP,PULL TO THE RIGHT. WATCH THAT DITCH. YOU'RE GOING TOO FAST YOUR GO SLOW. THROW IT NOW SHIFTTO THIRD WATCH THAT FENCE THEY MADE A GRAND TOUR IN NE OKLAHOMA BEFORE THE CAN FINALLY STOPPED TO CATCH YOUR BREATH. THEY DROVE THE TRUCK RIGHT UP BEHIND HER AND THEN GRABBED THE O.B. CHAIN THEN LEANING OUT THE WINDOW HE DROPPED IT OVER THE EXTENDED HOOF AND TO ENSURE THAT HE DIDN'T LOSE THE CHAIN HE DEFTLY LOOPED THE OTHER END AROUND HIS WRIST. HE HOOKED IT WITH AN OBI HANDLE FOR A BETTER GRIP AND CLAY BEGAN TO PULL BACK BROTHER TOSSED LASSO AROUND HER HEAD FOR INSURANCE AND DAD WAS GIVING DIRECTIONS. PULL IT OUT, GET THAT DOWN ANGLE. THE CATTLE TRIED TO GET AWAY BUT THE TWO BROTHERS HUNG ON IT DIDN'T GO SMOOTHLY ON THE FIRST JERK. SHE BANGED CLAYS FOREHEAD ON THE DOOR JAMB. SHE STRETCHED HIS NOSTRILS FROM THE BOTTOM AS SHE PULLED HIS CHEST AND SHOULDERS THROUGH THE PICKUP WINDOW. HIS HEAD POP THROUGH BUT THEN HIS BELT BUCKLE CAUGHT. DAD HAD  A GRIP ON CLAY'S RIGHT BOOT HIS OWN LEGS WERE BRACED AGAINST THE GEAR SHIFT AND THE ROOF. CLAYS BUT FINALLY GAVE WAY AND SLID OFF A FOOT CATCHING BRIEFLY ON THE STEERING WHEEL AND THEN ON THE SIDE    MIRROR. CLAY SLIPPED OUT OF THE TRUCK IN THE HORIZONTAL POSITION AND IMMEDIATELY NOSE DIVE INTO THE SOGGY GROUND. THE LAST MOVE CHANGED THE TRAJECTORY OF THE PULL DOWN TOWARD ACHIEVING THE RIGHT ANGLE. NO THE CAPS UNLOCKED AND THEY POPPED OUT FEEL CHANGED TO CLAY. DON'T LOSE THOSE CHAINS, HOLLERED DAD. THIS IS BAXTER BLACK. I'M OUTS THERE. TO ENJOY MORE FROM BAXTER BLACK BE SURE TO VISIT BAXTER BLACK DOT COM.

TEASE
WHEN WE COME BACK, MACHINERY PETE SHARES A TRACTOR TALE ABOUT A GREEN FARMALLA -- AND WE SALUTE A COUNTRY CHURCH FROM NORTH DAKOTA...PLEASE STAY WITH US.

TRACTOR TALE
TRACTOR TALES BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE MOST TRUSTED NAME IN FARM EQUIPMENT, MACHINERY PETE!  WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES FOLKS!  THIS WEEK'S CLASSIC IS A FARMALL A FROM MINNESOTA, AND IT COMES WITH A HINT OF GREEN.   JAKE TREBESCH ENJOYED RESTORING THIS '59 A WITH HIS DAD STEVE AND ASSURED US THE GREEN YOU'LL SEE ON THIS TRACTOR HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH JOHN DEERE. AS A 1949 SUPER A FARMALL HAS A 12 VOLT THAN CONVERT 12 VOLT. WITH AN ALTERNATOR. HAS AN INDUSTRIAL FRONT END. WHEEL WEIGHTS ALL AROUND AND IT'S OFFSET SO YOU CAN WHEN YOU'RE IN THE FIELD YOU CAN SEE WHERE YOU'RE GOING DOWN THE ROAD. SO I MEAN MY DAD WORKED ON IT AND IT WAS A WINTER PROJECT FOR US KIND OF SO I HELPED HIM OUT QUITE A BIT ON IT. I CAME FROM HALMARK CALIFORNIA IN A BOX SHIPPED OUT HERE. WE WERE ALL TOGETHER TOOK ABOUT A YEAR. AND WE HAD TO BRING IT OUT AND GET IT PAINTED. JUST GOOD. JUST A GOOD PROJECT. WE DIDN'T HAVE WE DON'T HAVE AN A SO WE  DIDN'T HAVE THE B AT THAT TIME EITHER. SO WE DIDN'T REALLY HAVE A SMALL TRACTOR YET. SO JUST A SHOW TRACKER YOU DON'T DON'T USUALLY AND NOTHING WITH THAT OR ANYTHING JUST DRIVE THROUGH THE PARADE. RIGHT. AND IT HAS A GREEN STEP ON THE OTHER SIDE PROBABLY EIGHT OR 10 AT THE TIME AND I DIDN'T LIKE RED PAINT SO I HAD TO HAVE SOMETHING GREEN ON IT. JOHN DEERE THIS IS THE COLOR. STAY HERE FOR A WHILE.

COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE
THANKS GREG.TODAY'S COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE GOES TO THE FULLERTON UNION CHURCH IN FULLERTON NORTH DAKOTA. ITS STILL OPEN FOR SERVICES AND CURRENTLY HAS ABOUT TWO DOZEN PARISHNERS. THE CHURCH WAS BUILT IN 1907 AND IN IT'S HEYDAY, THE CONGREGATIONBOASTED  90 CHILDREN AT SUNDAY SCHOOL. OUR THANKS TO ROGER LUBIENSFOR SHARING THE FULLERTON UNION CHURCH STORY. AS ALWAYS WE WANT TO LEARN ABOUT YOUR HOME CHURCH AS WELL... SALUTES CAN BE SENT TO THE ADDRESS ON THE SCREEN.  STAY WITH US - FROM THE FARM PHOTOS ---IS NEXT.

FROM THE FARM
WELCOME BACK AS WE CLOSE WITH OUR FAVORITE PHOTOS AND VIDEOS FROM ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS WEEK. CLINTON WE GOT THIS VIDEO OF PEANUT HARVEST IN  SOUTHWEST GEORGIA FROM MACHINERY PETE AND THE TEAM AT SUNSOUTH, A LARGE DEALERSHIP IN GEORGIA, ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI. PEANUT HARVESTERS ARE ROLLING. MIKE FROM ONE COAST TO ANOTHER, PISTACHIOS ARE COMING OFF THE TREE IN THIS VIDEO FROM JIM MORRIS AND SACRAMENTO VALLEY ON TWITTER. THIS HARVESTER IS AT STRAIN RANCHES IN ARBUCKLE, CALIFORNIATHAT STATE ALONE COUNTS NEARLY 250-THOUSAND BEARING ACRES BACK IN THE MIDWEST, HARVEST MAY BE GOING ON BUT LIFE  DOESN'T STOP. I LOVE THIS PHOTO FROM ANGIE KRATOCHVIL. SHE SHARED IT ON FACEBOOK. SHE TOOK THE HARVEST PHOTO AS HER TWINS AINSLEY AND ASHLYN WERE HEADED TO THEIR FIRST HOMECOMING DANCE IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS. IF YOU HAVE A PICTURE OF VIDEO YOU'D LIKE TO SEND IN, SEND THOSE TO MAILBAG-AT-U-S-FARM-REPORT-DOT-COM OR CHECK US OUT ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER.

CLOSE
FROM ALL OF US AT U.S. FARM REPORT, I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. TYNE MORGAN WILL BE BACK NEXT WEEK. THANKS FOR WATCHING AND HAVE A GREAT WEEK IN FARM COUNTRY.

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