USFR Weekly Recap - September 9-10, 2017

September 9, 2017 03:30 AM
 

TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
SEPTEMBER 9-10, 2017


HEADLINES
WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M TYNE MORGAN,  AND HERE'S WHAT WE'RE WORKING ON FOR YOU OVER  THE NEXT 60 MINUTES. USDA SHOCKED THE MARKET IN AUGUST WITH  MONSTOROUS PRODUCTION NUMBERS, SO WILL THE  BULLS OR BEARS WIN OUT NEXT WEEK? <LOOK AT MARKET REACTION INSTEAD OF PRICES.>OUR MARKET DISCUSSION IS ON THE ROAD FROM  NEBRASKA. ON THE HEELS OF HARVEY, HURRICANE IRMA  THREATENING FLORIDA'S ALREADY DECIMATED CITRUS  INDUSTRY. FARMERS FACING A STARK FINANCIAL PICTURE WITH  PRESSURED PRICES… . I DO THINK THAT THE DECLINES IN NET FARMING INOME HAVE STARTED TO  LEVEL OFF ; OUR FARM JOURNAL REPORT EXPLORES WHY BETTER  DAYS MAY BE AHEAD. AND IN JOHN'S WORLD.. <DRONES VERSUS SATTELITES>    <U.S. FARM REPORT - BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE DEPENDABLE, LONG  LASTING, CHEVY SILVERADO.>

HURRICANE IRMA
ON THE HEALS OF HURRICANE HARVEY, A CATEGORY 5  HURRICANE BARRELING TOWARD THE FLORIDA COAST  THIS WEEK, WITH PRODUCE COMPANIES AND PORTS  BRACING FOR THE WORST.  IN PREPERATION, THE GOVERNOR DECLARING A STATE  OF EMERGENCY, WITH PRODUCE COMPANIES HALTING  SHIPMENTS IN ORDER TO GIVE EMPLOYEES TIME TO  PREPARE. AND WITH ORANGE HARVEST JUST AROUND  THE CORNER, FLORIDA CITRUS GROWERS ALREADY  FIGHTING TO SAVE A RAPIDLY DECLINING INDUSTRY,  ONLY TO HAVE HARVEST READY FRUIT POSSIBLY  RIPPED AWAY. THOSE GROWERS ALREADY DEALING  WITH A CROP CUT BY MORE TWO-THIRDS DUE TO  CITRUS GREENING.  UNHARVESTED, VULNERABLE CROP STILL SITTING IN  THE FIELD. ACCORDING TO USDA, COTTON HARVEST  ISN'T ROLLING YET. BUT GROWERS SITTING ON A  BUMPER CROP, WITH 100 PERCENT OF GEORGIA'S  COTTON RATED GOOD TO EXCELLENT. IN SOUTH  CAROLINA, 95 PERCENT IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT. 

CONDITIONS POST HARVEY
AND WE'VE SEEN THE DEVASTATION FROM HURRICANE  HARVEY.  THE LOUISIANA "NASS" REPORT SHOWS THE  STATE'S COTTON CROP LOST 14 POINTS IN QUALITY.   NOW 49-PERCENT IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT. . IT'S UNFORTUNATE TIMING AS NEARLY THREE- QUARTERS OF THE COTTON CROP HAD OPEN BOLLS. . AND THE STATE'S SOYBEAN CROP ALSO LOST 14  POINTS. 56-PERCENT IS RATED GOOD TO EXCELLENT. ABOUT HALF OF THE CROP WAS NEARLY READY FOR  HARVEST,

WEATHER
THOSE ARE THE HEADLINES...METEOROLOGIST CINDI  CLAWSON JOINS US NOW WITH WEATHER...  CINDI, SO MANY UNKNOWNS WITH HURRICANE IRMA,  BUT HARVEST IS RAMPING UP FOR MANY OF OUR  VIEWERS. SO, HOW IS RAIN PANNING OUT THE REST OF  THE WEEK?  WELL TYNE OVERALL NOT TOO BAD AND MUCH OF THE CORN. BUT LET'S  START OFF WITH THE DROUGHT MONITOR SO WE'RE GOING TO BE LOOKING AT  DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING FOR A LOT OF THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED  STATES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS STILL SOME DRY AREAS AS YOU GET  INTO PARTS OF THE CORN BELT AS WELL ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN PART OF  IOWA. WE'RE STARTING TO SEE SOME EXTREME DROUGHT THERE. BUT  TAKE A LOOK OVER THE PAST FOUR WEEKS AND YOU REALLY SEE THAT IT'S  BEEN KIND OF EXPANDING INTO THE NORTH EAST OR NORTH WESTERN  UNITED STATES SO THINGS REALLY HAVE BEEN ON THE DRY SIDE THERE  AND IT CONTINUES TO BE THAT WAY. AND AS WE AGAIN LOOK AT THE  NEXT OR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS YOU REALLY SEE THAT DRYNESS KIND OF  SHIFTING OUT INTO MONTANA INTO IDAHO AS WELL BUT STILL REMAINING IN  PARTS OF THE CORN BELT. ALL RIGHT. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK  AHEAD OF COURSE WE'RE GOING TO HAVE HURRICANE IRMA. WE'RE GOING TO FIGURE OUT AND SEE HOW MUCH RAIN ACTUALLY FALLS AS WE  GET INTO THE NEXT WEEK AND COULD BE A LOT OF RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST  UNITED STATES. OTHERWISE WE DO HAVE A FRONT THAT'S DRAPING  ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THAT WILL BRING A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN ACTIVITY  TO FOLKS THERE AND A LITTLE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A LOW PRESSURE  SYSTEM AROUND THE EASTERN PART OF COLORADO. OTHERWISE WE'LL SEE  SOME SUNSHINE FOR THE NATION'S MIDSECTION KIND OF WARM THOUGH  AS YOU GET INTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.  FOR WEDNESDAY WE'LL SEE ANOTHER FRONT COMING INTO PARTS OF THAT  WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST LOOK FOR SOME SHOWERS  MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER THERE AS WELL. OF COURSE WE'LL  SEE THE. HOPEFULLY REMNANTS OF IRMA BY THEN AND THEN WE WILL BE  SEEING SOME SHOWERS AND SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER THERE AS  WELL. WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON THAT AND THEN AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY  WE'LL BE LOOKING AT SOME DECENT HARVEST WEATHER FOR FOLKS IN THE  CORN BELT A LITTLE BIT ON THE COOL SIDE THOUGH BUT A LOT OF SUNSHINE  EVEN ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. THAT'S YOUR NATIONAL  FORECAST. HAVE MORE WEATHER COMING UP LATER ON IN THE SHOW. 

TEASE
THANKS, CINDI. USDA'S AUGUST REPORT THREW  CURVBEALLS INTO THE MARKET. BUT COULD WE SEE A  REPEAT WHEN USDA RELEASES ITS SEPTEMBER  PRODUCTION REPORT NEXT WEEK? WE'RE ON THE  ROAD WITH ALAN BRUGLER, DON ROOSE AND ARLAN  SUDERMAN NEXT.

ROUNDTABLE 1
WELCOME BACK TO US FARM REPORT WELL ON THE ROAD THIS WEEK FROM  THE FINAL FARM JOURNAL YIELD TOUR STOP HERE IN OMAHA NEBRASKA  DAN ROOSE ALAN BRUGLER AND ARLAN SUDERMAN ON THE PANEL WITH ME THIS WEEK THE BIG STORY RIGHT NOW. LOOKING AT IT NEXT WEEK AS  THIS USDA REPORT THAT'S COMING OUT. AUGUST REPORT DEFINITELY WAS  NOT WHAT THE TRADE WAS EXPECTING. WHAT ARE YOU EXPECTING OUT OF  NEXT WEEK'S REPORT?  WELL I THINK THE BIG THING IS THAT WE NOT GET ANY MORE BEARISH  SURPRISES. I THINK THE TRADE HAS DEFINITELY TAKEN A BETTER ATTITUDE  TOWARD THE COMMODITY SECTOR AT LARGE. YOU LOOK ACROSS THE  SPECTRUM OF COMMODITIES, WE'RE SEEING MONEY FLOW IN A LITTLE BIT  WORRIED TO MAKE THE TOTAL ASSUMPTION BECAUSE IT IS STILL EARLY IN  THE MONTH WITH NEW MONEY COMING IN THERE TO SET NEW TRENDS,  BUT WE ARE TURNING THE CHARTS. SO I THINK WITH THE GRAIN AND  OILSEEDS IF WE FAIL TO GET FRESH BEARISH NEWS: WE DON'T SEE THE  YIELDS INCREASE SO TO SPEAK OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE, THEN I THINK THE  FUNDS WILL GET BEHIND IT, ONCE WE HAVE THE ALGORITHMIC TRADERS  TRADE IT THEN I THINK WE'LL START SEEING THE MONEY KIND OF COME  BEHIND IT.  SO YOU THINK ANY TYPE OF YIELD DECREASE SHAVING ANY BUSHEL OFF  ONE TWO THREE WILL CREATE A BULLISH STORY?  YEH MAYBE NOT INITIALLY IF IT'S STILL ABOVE WHAT THE AVERAGE TRADE  GUESS AHEAD THAT THE ALGORITHMIC TRADERS HAVE PROGRAMMED IN.  BUT AFTER THAT I THINK SO. I'M NOT BULLISH SO TO SPEAK, WE STILL HAVE  BIG SUPPLIES OUT THERE. BUT I DO THINK THAT IN THE WEEKS AND  MONTHS AHEAD WE'LL HAVE SLOW APPRECIATION OF PRICE.  ALAN DO YOU AGREE WITH THAT OR DO YOU THINK WE NEED KIND OF A  BIGGER CHUNK TAKEN OUT OF THIS THIS PRODUCTION.  WELL I THINK WE HAVE TO REMEMBER THAT WE ARE COMING INTO  WHAT'S TRADITIONALLY A HARVEST LOW PERIOD THAT IS THE FIRST OF  OCTOBER CASH AVERAGE PRICE FOR THE U.S. TYPICALLY BOTTOMS FIRST  WEEK OF OCTOBER. WE'RE GETTING A NICE LITTLE SHORT COVERING RALLY,  WE ARE SEEING SOME FRESH FUND MONEY COMING IN AS ARLAN  MENTIONED. THE MARKET WAS SET UP PERFECTLY FOR THAT WITH THE  TECHNICAL SETUP. WE WERE WAY OVERSOLD AT THE END OF AUGUST. SO  I THINK WE'VE GOT WE'VE GOT PERMISSION TO GO UP INTO THE CROP  REOPO. HOLDING AND THOSE GAINS INTO LATE SEPTEMBER IS GOING TO  BE A LITTLE MORE OF A CHALLENGE. I THINK IF YOU WERE TO GET THE U.S.  CORN YIELD DOWN TO 167 OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT THAT WOULD ALLOW  US TO EXTEND THE GAINS.  SO EVEN AT 167 YOU'RE THINKING JUST A COUPLE OR A FEW BUSHELS OFF  WOULD CREATE A STORY THERE. WHAT ABOUTIN SOYBEANS THOUGH DON,  I MEAN I KNOW IT'S STILL KIND OF EARLY ON WE ARE GOING TO GET A  BETTER LOOK AT THIS CROP, BUT WHAT HAS TO HAPPEN WITH THE  SOYBEAN PRODUCTION AND YIELD TO REALLY SEE THE MARKET REACT IN A  POSITIVE WAY?  WELL I THINK THE REAL QUESTION MARK IS YOU KNOW HAVE WE PUT IN OR  SEASONAL LOW, NOT ONLY ON SOYBEANS BUT ON CORN AND THE WHEAT  MARKET. FROM AN OVERALL CROP CONDITION RATING, THE CROP RATINGS  WHERE THEY'RE AT, 61 PERCENT, REALLY THAT PUTS YOU A LITTLE CLOSER TO  47 BUSHELS AN ACRE. SO IF YOU LOOK IT, IF YOU TAKE 2.5 BUSHELS OFF  OF THE YIELDS YOU KNOW YOU'RE YOU KNOW YOU CAN GET A CARRY OUT  DOWN UNDER 300 MILLION. SO I THINK IT WOULD BE WITH THE DRY  AUGUST THAT WE'VE HAD, IT WOULD BE UNUSUAL FOR THE YIELD TO GO  UP. SO I THINK IF A YIELD COMES DOWN WE'LL PROBABLY ADD SOME RISK  PREMIUM TO THE MARKET. REMEMBER OF THE CHINESE ARE TERRIFIC  BUYERS OF THE MARKET.  YEAH WE'VE SEEN THIS DEMAND STORY PLAY OUT IN THE SOYBEANS,  SO PRODUCTION WISE CONSIDERING DEMAND, CONSIDERING THE STOCKS  PRODUCTION WISE ON BOTH CORN AND BEANS, WHAT NUMBER DO YOU  WANT TO SEE OUT OF USDA NEXT WEEK?  WELL YOU KNOW I THINK IS PROBABLY MORE OF THE REACTION THAN THE  ACTUAL PRICE IS WHAT I WOULD LOOK AT. BUT YOU KNOW I THINK IT'S  GOING TO BE HARD TO GET A CARRY OUT DOWN UNDER 2 BILLION BUSHELS.  I DON'T KNOW IF IT REALLY MATTERS. I THINK WHAT IT REALLY IS AS THE  PRODUCER JUST AT THESE PRICE LEVELS PARTICULARLY WHEAT AND CORN,  HE'S JUST NOT INTERESTED IN SELLING. SO, HE'S TUCKING IT AWAY FROM  THE MARKET AND THE CARRIES ARE GIVING YOU THAT. SO I WOULD SAY  THE BOTTOM LINE, LOOK AT HOW ROCK RATHER NOT THE NUMBERS.  YEAH. AND AGAIN YOU ALLUDED THAT TO THAT TO, ARLAN, BUT WHEN WE  LOOK AT WHAT TYPE OF STORY ARE YOU LOOKING FOR TO COME OUT OF THIS  REPORT REGARDING WHEAT.  WELL I LOOKED FOR USDA TO ADD SOME MORE BUSHELS TO THE BLACK  SEA CROP. I THINK WE'LL PROBABLY SEE RUSSIA'S NUMBER AND  PERHAPS UKRAINE'S NUMBER PUSH UP A LITTLE BIT HIGHER. BUT AT THIS  POINT DOES IT REALLY MATTER? WE'VE EXCEEDED EXPORT CAPACITY OUT  OF RUSSIA, SO THEY CAN PRODUCE ALL THE MORE THEY WANT BUT THEY  CAN'T EXPORT MORE THAN WHAT THEY HAVE, THEY CAN'T EXPORT WHAT  WE KNOW NOW THAT THEY'VE PRODUCED. AND U.S. HARD RED WINTER  WHEAT IS VERY WELL POSITIONED THERE, AND I'M LOOKING FOR USDA TO  EVENTUALLY PUSH OUR EXPORT NUMBER HIGHER. WE'VE STILL GOT A BIG  SUPPLY. SO IT'S GOING TO BE A LONG TIME BEFORE WE CAN TALK ABOUT  BEING BULLISH WHEAT. BUT I DO THINK THAT WE CAN CONFIRM NEAR-TERM  LOWS. WELL USDA REPORT COULD BE A MAJOR STORY NEXT WEEK.  YOU KNOW HERE IN IN IN OMAHA WAS WATCHING THE LOCAL NEWS AND  TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE MORNING. WE'RE AROUND 32 DEGREES  AND IN SOME AREAS SO WE'RE SEEING THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES  COME INTO PLAY. DO YOU THINK THAT A FROST STORY CAN BREW AND WHAT'S OUR WINDOW FOR THAT.  WELL I THINK IT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ANYWHERE UP TO THE FIRST PART OF  OCTOBER SIMPLY BECAUSE OF THE CRIME AUTHORITIES ARE A LITTLE BIT  BEHIND. BUT AGAIN THE WERE SUPPOSED TO WARM UP. THIS WAS  SUPPOSED TO BE THE LOW DAY OF THE OF THE WEEK. AND THEN WE  START TO SEE THEM THE WESTERN CORN BELT WARM UP A LITTLE BIT GOING  FORWARD SO I THINK WE'VE PROBABLY DODGED THE BULLET HERE FOR THIS  ONE. BUT AGAIN IF YOU HIT ANOTHER COLD SPELL TWO WEEKS OUT I THINK  IT WILL IT COULD HAVE A LITTLE LEG TO IT THE PROBLEM IS OF COURSE THE  CROP WILL BE A LITTLE MORE MATURE TO.  YOU'RE TALKING TESTS WAY TO IMPACTS MORE THAN MASSIVE LOSSES  HERE. YOU AGREE WITH THAT OR DO YOU THINK THAT WE COULD GET A  STORY IF WE START TO SEE SOME PICTURES OF FROST.  WELL YOU KNOW TYPICALLY WE LOSE FIVE TO 10 TO 15 MILLION BUSHELS  EVERY YEAR FROM SOME LOW LYING AREAS SO I WOULD ANTICIPATE THAT.  BUT YOU KNOW I'M MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE DRY WEATHER THAT  WE'VE HAD IN AUGUST. I THINK IT JUST WASN'T THE FINISH THAT YOU  WANTED. I THINK IN THE NEXT FIVE TO 10 DAYS IT'S NOT GOING TO MATTER.  AND I THINK THAT'S A REAL ISSUE FOR THE SOYBEANS.  IT JUST WASN'T THE AUGUST THAT YOU WERE HOPING FOR FOR BIG YIELD  THE SAME TIME WE JUST SAW HURRICANE HARVEY WE HAD HURRICANE  IRMA KNOCKING I MEAN SOME DEFINITELY WILL GET A POSSIBLE IMPACT  IN THE SOUTH OF THAT ALSO A WEAKENING U.S. DOLLAR. I MEAN THAT  SHOULD BE GOOD NEWS FOR FOR EXPORTS SO IS THAT A STORY THAT WE  CAN COUNT ON COMING UP IN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. WE'LL TALK ABOUT  THAT WHEN WE COME BACK ON U.S. FARM REPORT. 

ROUNDTABLE 2
ALL RIGHT. WELCOME BACK AGAIN WE'RE FROM THE FARM JOURNAL. YIELD  TO WE'RE A BIG THINK OF. THANKS TO THE SPONSORS FOR THIS. ARLAN,  YOU KNOW WE TALKED ABOUT HURRICANE HARVEY SAW THE  DEVASTATION THAT HIT IN TEXAS LOUISIANA. SOME OF THOSE AREAS  YOU KNOW WERE RECORDING THIS BEFORE THE HURRICANES REALLY  MAKING LANDFALL HERE IN THE U.S. BUT WHAT POSSIBLE IMPACT DO YOU  THINK WE COULD SEE FROM THAT ON AGRICULTURE.  WELL HURRICANE HARVEY CERTAINLY HAD A BIG IMPACT ON THE LOCAL  CROPS BUT THAT'S A VERY SMALL PERCENTAGE OVERALL OVERALL I THINK  PROBABLY COTTON AND RICE THE BIGGEST DIRECT IMPACT AS FAR AS  IMPACTING SUPPLIES CERTAINLY HAD AN IMPACT ON RAIL AND  MOVEMENT OF GRAIN AND LOADING ON THE PORTS. AS WE LOOK AT  IRMAK COMING INTO FLORIDA AND UP THE EAST COAST CERTAINLY GOING  TO DO IS DISRUPT SOME MOVEMENT TO GRAIN SOME CROPS INVOLVED  THERE AS WELL. COTTON PROBABLY GOING TO SEE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT  IMPACT ONCE AGAIN MUCH OF THIS COTTON CROP HAS ALREADY BEEN  BOOKED BY THE MILLS AND NEEDED. AND SO WE'RE IN A SITUATION  WHERE WE'RE SEEING THE MARKETS START TO REFLECT THAT THOSE  CONCERNS. WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE BIG PERCENTAGE OF CORN AND  SOYBEANS. NOT MUCH IMPACT WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE LOCAL PEOPLE  BOTH LIVESTOCK PRODUCERS AND MOVEMENT OF GRAIN AS WELL AS  PRODUCERS HAVE CROPS IN THE FIELD. IT'S A PRETTY BIG IMPACT.  ALL RIGHT SWITCHING GEARS OVER TO THE U.S. DOLLAR. SAW A  WEAKENING U.S. DOLLAR. YOU KNOW ALAN, IT WAS SURPRISING, EVEN  WHEN WE SAW STRENGTH IN THIS DOLLAR EXPORTS STILL REMAIN PRETTY  PRETTY STRONG. SO WE SEE THE US DOLLAR WEAKENED KIND OF. WHO  BENEFITS THE MOST FROM THAT.  WELL OBVIOUSLY IT MAKES US A LITTLE MORE COMPETITIVE IN THE EXPORT  MARKET RELATIVE TO BRAZIL OR ARGENTINA OR SOMEBODY ELSE WHO  DEPENDS ON WHO YOU'RE WHO YOU'RE WEAKENING. WE TALK ABOUT  THE DOLLAR AS AN INDEX, BUT IT'S INDIVIDUAL COUNTRY RELATIONSHIPS  THAT DRIVE THE COMPETITIVENESS. YOU KNOW WE'RE WATCHING THE  DOLLAR PRETTY CLOSELY OR THE DX WHICH IS ONLY ONE OF THREE OR FOUR  WAYS OF MEASURING THE DOLLAR INDEX IS AT 92. THAT IS A MAJOR  CHART SUPPORT POINT ON THE WEEKLY AND MONTHLY CHARGE. IF WE  BREAK THAT IT GOES DOWN TO 88 AND A HALF OR SO. THAT WOULD BE A  4 PERCENT SWING. WELL IF IF IF THE DOLLAR IS 4 PERCENT WEAKER, IT  TAKES 4 PERCENT MORE DOLLARS TO BUY THE SAME SUPPLY AND  DEMAND VALUE, THAT'D BE 30 SOME CENTS A BUSHEL IN SOYBEANS.  SO WE ARE TALKING SOME SIGNIFICANT PRICE MOVEMENT POTENTIAL, IF  THE DOLLAR WEAKENS FURTHER. BUT AGAIN I WOULD CAUTION WE ARE AT A  TECHNICAL SUPPORT POINT HERE, AND WE EXPECT THAT THE SOME OF THE  SHORTS THAT TAKE SOME OF THE MONEY OFF THE TABLE.  ALL RIGHT WELL LABOR DAY WEEK WAS A BIG WEEK IN THE HOG MARKET  ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU SAW TWO MAJOR PROCESSING PLANTS COME  ONLINE. WE KNOW THAT THE DEMAND IS HAPPENING THERE. SO WE  SEE SUPPLIES INCREASE AND IT'S REALLY A SUPPLY STORY RIGHT NOW.  BUT IS THE DEMAND ON THE OTHER SIDE TO EAT THROUGH THIS PROCESS  PRODUCT.  WELL AND THAT'S A GOOD QUESTION. I THINK THAT'S WHAT WE'RE GOING  TO SORT OUT IN THE MARKETPLACE BUT WHEN YOU LOOK AT IT THERE'S NO  DOUBT WE'RE IN A SUPPLY BEAR MARKET ON THE HOG. YOU LOOK AT LAST  YEAR WE WENT DOWN TO CLOSE TO $41 A 100 LATE ON DECEMBER  2015 YOU WENT DOWN TO $52 A HUNDRED WEIGHT. YOU KNOW WE GOT  UP OVER $60 A 108 THIS LAST WEEK. BUT YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE  SUPPLIES THAT ARE REALLY ON THE RISE TWO PERCENT MORE IN THE THIRD  QUARTER FOUR PERCENT MORE IN THE FOURTH QUARTER OF THIS YEAR. BUT  THEN WHEN YOU JUMP OUT OF THE SECOND QUARTER NEXT YEAR ALMOST  7 PERCENT MORE THAN A YEAR AGO. SO NO DOUBT THESE PROCESSING  PLANTS COMING ONBOARD IT'S A BIG DEAL. IT'S REALLY GOING TO  INCREASE THE SLAUGHTER CAPACITY AND IT'S GOING TO HELP THE OVERALL  DEMAND FROM A PRODUCER STANDPOINT. SO WHAT IMPACT DO YOU  THINK THAT HAS ON PRICE. WELL I TELL YOU I THINK YOU'RE GOING TO  HAVE TO EXPAND THE EXPORTS AND YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE TO EXPAND  THE DOMESTIC. I THINK IT'S GOING TO HAVE MORE OF A BASIS EFFECT  THAN THEY DO A FLAT PRICE. I THINK UNTIL WE SORT THROUGH THIS YOU  HAVE TO USE RALLIES AS RISK MANAGEMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN A SUPPLY  BEAR MARKET.  ARLAN DO YOU THINK DEMAND CAN KEEP UP ON THIS PORK SIDE AND  ULTIMATELY WHAT ARE YOU FORECASTING FOR PRICE.  WELL AND THAT'S WHERE THE WEAK DOLLAR REALLY PLAYS IN THE WHEAT  MARKET INTO A MEAT MARKET OR TWO PLACES WHERE THE DOLLAR HAS ITS  BIGGEST IMPACT. WE SAW WEEKLY EXPORT SALES IN THE LAST USDA  REPORT SHOWING VERY STRONG PORK AND BEEF EXPORTS. THE WEAKER  DOLLAR FINALLY STARTED TO HAVE AN EFFECT THERE. WHEN WE LOOK BACK  TO MID-AUGUST WE'VE SEEN BELLY PRICES DOWN ABOUT 70 CENTS  DURING THAT PERIOD OF TIME THAT ALL OF THE OTHER PRODUCT CATEGORIES  HAVE BEEN RISING IN PRICE. DEMAND HAS BEEN SUPPORTIVE. SO I  THINK WE'RE STARTING TO FIND AN AREA NOW WHERE DEMAND STARTS  SUPPORT.  ALAN IT'S ALSO A SUPPLY STORY IN THIS CATTLE MARKET SO YOU KNOW IF  WE CONTINUE TO GROW SUPPLIES IT DOESN'T SEEM LIKE THAT'S GOING TO  BE FAVORABLE TO PRICES.  YEAH I THINK WE'VE GOT A REAL CHALLENGE AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED  WHOLE PRODUCTIONS OF THE PORT PRODUCTION IS UP BUT THE BEEF  PRODUCTION IS ALSO WE'RE AT A SEVEN OR EIGHT YEAR HIGH LIKELY IN  THE FOURTH QUARTER AND BEEF PRODUCTION CHICKEN PRODUCTION  CONTINUES EXPAND OR 2 OR 3 PERCENT PER YEAR. SO YOU'VE GOT THIS  TOTAL MEAT SUPPLY THAT YOU'VE GOT TO MOVE AND WE'RE STILL IN THE  RAMPING UP PART OF THE CATTLE CYCLE AT THIS POINT. SO YEAH WE'RE A  LITTLE BEARISH ON THE MEAT MARKET IN GENERAL BECAUSE WE'VE GOT  TO MOVE ALL THIS PRODUCT OUT IN THE FOURTH QUARTER CATTLE CYCLE LOW  IS DUE IN THE FUTURES THOUGH SO THAT MIGHT HELP US.  ALL RIGHT THANKS SO WE NEED TO TAKE A QUICK BREAK. WE'LL GET THEIR  CLOSING THOUGHTS WHEN WE COME BACK ON U.S. FARM REPORT.

MARKETS NOW
ALL RIGHT. TIME NOW FOR CLOSING THOUGHTS. ARLAN, WE'LL START WITH  YOU.  I THINK SOYBEANS HAD THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO POP IF WE GET A  SMALLER CROP BECAUSE THE DEMAND IS SO STRONG. I'M NOT BULLISH  THE GRAIN AND OILSEEDS. BUT I DO LIKE THE MONEY COMING BACK INTO  THE COMMODITIES AND I THINK WE CAN APPRECIATE PRICES OVER THE  COMING YEARS, AS MORE MONEY COMES INTO THE COMMODITY  SECTOR.  ALAN. YOU NEED TO REMEMBER THE MARKET IS IS NOT A POGUE'S  HOCKEY STICK IT'S A POGO STICK. IT DOESN'T JUST GO DOWN AND LAY  THERE WHEN WE HAVE THESE BIG SUPPLIES. IT MOVES AROUND. YOU  SHOULD EXPECT A TRADING RANGE OF ABOUT A DOLLAR A BUSHEL OVER  THE NEXT 12 MONTHS AND CORN AND YOU JUST HAVE TO TAKE  ADVANTAGE OF THE OPPORTUNITIES.  ALL RIGHT. THANKS. DON. I THINK WHEN YOU LOOK AT THIS NEXT YEAR  REMEMBER THE GOVERNMENT'S TELLING US THAT NEXT YEAR IS GOING TO LOOK VERY MUCH LIKE LAST YEAR DID. MAKE SURE YOU ANALYZE THE  CARRIES THAT WE HAVE IN THE CORN AND SOYBEAN MARKET. PROBABLY  TRY AND MERCHANDISE YOURSELF OUT OF THE MARKET RATHER SPECULATE  YOURSELF OUT OF THE MARKET. SO THERE'S OPPORTUNITIES WITH THE  CARRIES IN THE MARKET. MAKE  SURE YOU ANALYZE THOSE AND USE  THEM TO YOUR ADVANTAGE. ALL RIGHT. THANK YOU ALL FOR BEING HERE I  APPRECIATE IT. WE DID TAKE A QUICK BREAK AND THEN JOHN PHIPPS  JOINS US NEXT.

JOHN’S WORLD
IMAGES CAPTURED FROM DRONES ARE SOMETHING WE  LOVE TO AIR ON OUR PROGRAM, JUST BECAUSE IT'S A  VIEW YOU CANT SEE FROM THE GROUND. BUT FOR  FARMING PURPOSES, HOW DOES IT COMPARE TO  SATELLITE IMAGERY? HERE'S JOHN PHIPPS.  A FEW WEEKS AGO I POKED FUN AT AG DRONES POINTING OUT THAT IT'S  HARD TO GENERATE INCOME BY FLYING OVER CROPS. THERE IS ANOTHER  MORE SERIOUS REASON WHY I AM NOT ON THE DRONE BANDWAGON -  THEY MAY BE SUPERFLUOUS SOON. CONSIDER THIS SCREENSHOT OF MY HOUSE FROM GOOGLE MAPS. NOW  LET'S SWITCH TO THE SATELLITE VIEW. SINCE SHIFTING TO LANDSAT 8 LAST  YEAR, THE RESOLUTION ON GOOGLE EARTH HAS BEEN A LITTLE SPOOKY.  THE SATELLITE IS 435 MILES HIGH AND ORBITS THE EARTH ABOUT EVERY  100 MINUTES. IT RECORDS 700 SCENES PEER DAY. THIS IMAGE IS FROM ABOUT THIS TIME IN 2015. IMAGES ARE SELECTED  BY HOW RAPIDLY THINGS ON THE GROUND ARE CHANGING SO UPDATES FOR  MY LOCATION ARE UNPREDICTABLE. WHAT I WANT TO SHOW IS THIS. IF YOU  ZOOM INTO THE HIGHEST RESOLUTION, I NOTED WITH SOME  CONSTERNATION YOU COULD TELL IF ANYONE WAS IN THE POOL. ASIDE  FROM MAKING ME THINK TWICE ABOUT SKINNY-DIPPING, THIS SUGGESTS  TO ME THAT IF THE PUBLIC IMAGES ARE THIS GOOD, WHAT MUST THE  MILITARY AND INTELLIGENCE IMAGES FROM SATELLITES BE LIKE? REGARDLESS, MUCH OF MY SKEPTICISM ON THE FUTURE OF DRONES IS  BASED ON THE PREDICTION THAT AS SATELLITES BECOME SMALLER, MORE  SOPHISTICATED AND MUCH CHEAPER TO LAUNCH, WE MAY NOT BE THAT  FAR AWAY FROM NEARLY REAL TIME CROP MONITORING FROM SPACE. EVEN  WEEKLY IMAGES OF YOUR FARM WOULD BE POWERFUL TOOLS, ESPECIALLY  WHEN IT WOULD BE EASY TO STACK SUCCESSIVE SHOTS INTO A STOP  ACTION VIDEO OF THE CROP DEVELOPING. IT'S EASY TO FORGET HOW TWO DIMENSIONAL OUR THINKING IS. CLIMBING  TO TOP OF THE GRAIN BIN CAN BE A SURPRISING EPIPHANY - AND THAT'S  ONLY 50-ODD FEET. THE IDEA BEHIND DRONES MAY BE VALID, BUT IT  LOOKS TO ME LIKE THAT TYPE OF INFORMATION WILL BE BETTER AND  CHEAPER WHEN IT COMES FROM SPACE. THANKS, JOHN. FOUR YEARS OF NEGATIVE NET FARM  INCOME IS THE REALITY IN FARM COUNTRY. BUT  WEATHERING THAT STORM IS WHERE FARMERS SHINE.  SO, ARE BETTER DAYS AHEAD? THAT'S OUR FARM  JOURNAL REPORT AFTER THE BREAK. 

HEADLINES
FROM THE STUDIOS OF FARM JOURNAL BROADCAST,  THIS IS U.S. FARM REPORT.  WELCOME BACK TO U-S FARM REPORT THIS WEEKEND.  WE HAVE MUCH MORE AHEAD. FARMERS' SENTIMENTS  SLIP, BUT FUTURE OUTLOOKS IMPROVE. THE RESULTS  ARE IN FROM THE LATEST AG ECONOMY BAROMTER. REILLIENCY REIGNS IN FARM COUNTRY, WITH FARM  BANKRUPTCIES MUTED. BUT WILL THAT CONTINUE?  THAT'S OUR FARM JOURNAL REPORT. BAXTER BLACK HAS THE THEORY OF THE TRIANGLE AND JOHN PHIPPS HAS SOME EYE CATCHING GADGETS TO SHOW OFF IN CUSTOMER SUPPORT.

FARMER SENTIMENTS ON THE AG ECONOMY
NOW FOR THE HEADLINES...FARMERS' SENTIMENTS  SLIPPING IN A RECENT SURVEY, AS SLUGGISH GRAIN  PRICES EAT INTO OUTLOOKS. BUT THOSE SENTIMENTS  STILL SITTING WELL ABOVE YEAR-AGO LEVELS.  THE LATEST AG ECONOMY BAROMETER SHOWING  FARMER SENTIMENTS DIPPING TO 132, DOWN 7 POINTS  FROM JULY'S SURVEY. PURDUE AND CME BASE THEIR  INDEX ON A SURVEY OF 400 PRODUCERS. THE DROP IN SENTIMENTS FROM PRESSURED PRICES,  BUT PRODUCER SENTIMENTS STILL NOTICABLY ABOVE  YEAR AGO LEVELS.  "THESE ARE NOT SAYING THAT THINGS ARE OVERALL GOOD TIMES IN THE  AG ECONOMY THERE'S STILL A LOT OF CONCERN FOR THE PRODUCERS THINK  THAT THERE ARE REPORTS OF THEIR OPERATION IS WORSE OFF TODAY THAN A  YEAR AGO. SO THIS UNDERSCORES A DIFFICULT TIME OUT THERE BUT WE  HAVEN'T SEEN. WE'VE SEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT AND SOME  MODERATION IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS AND WE'VE SEEN AN UPTICK IN  SENTIMENT AS A RESULT. "DESPITE THE DIP IN MOOD SHORT-TERM, FARMERS  REMAIN MORE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FUTURE  EXPECTATIONS.  <"BY WORKING TOGETHER, WE'RE GOING TO WORK TO RESTORE AMERICA'S  COMPETITIVE EDGE" >

WASHINGTON TAX REFORM
FARMERS AND RANCHERS LOOKING FOR REPREIVE  FROM WHAT SOME VIEW AS A BURDEONSOMETAX CODE. THE PRESIDENT REVEALING A FEW MORE  DETAILS OF HIS PLANS TO OVERHAUL THE CURRENT  TAX PLAN IN NORTH DAKOTA THIS WEEK. THAT  INCLUDES HITTING A CHORD WITH FARMERS, SAYING HE  PLANS TO THROW OUT THE ESTATE, OR DEATH TAX.  EVEN CALLING IT A TREMENDOUS BURDEN FOR FAMILY  FARMERS AND OTHER BUSINESSES. DURING THE  PRESIDENT'S SPEECH, HE PROMISED AMERICANS HE  WON'T ALLOW THE DEATH TAX TO CRUSH THE  AMERICAN DREAM. THE PRESIDENT SAYS TAX REFORM  INCLUDES A FOUR-POINT PLAN…  <WE NEED A TAX CODE THAT'S SIMPLE FAIR AND EASY TO UNDERSTAND  UNLIKE WAHT WE HAVE.> " SECOND WE WILL CUT TAXES FOR MIDDLE CLASS FAMILIES, THIS IS THE  BIGGEST TAX CUT. THE BIGGEST SINCE RONALD RAEGAN> <WE NEED A TAX CODE THAT RESTORES ITS COMPETITIVE EDGE SO WE  CAN CREATE MORE JOBS AND HIGHER WAGES FOR AMERICAN  WORKERS..OUR PLAN WOULD PROVIDE TAX RELIEF TO BSUINESSES OF ALL  SIZES AND WE WOULD CUT THE BUSINESS TAX RATE BY AS MUCH AS  POSSIBLE, IDEALLY, WE WOULD LIKE TO BRING OUR BUSINESS TAX RATE  DOWN TO 15%. THAT'S A TREMENDOUS DROP. > DEMOCRATS LIKE NORTH DAKOTA SENATOR HEIDI  HEITKAMP SAYS THE PLAN STILL LACKS NECESSARY DETAILS.

NAFTA TALKS
ROUND 2 OF NAFTA NEGOTIATOINS NOW IN THE  BOOKS,W ITHOUT ANY MAJOR BREAKTHROUGHS ON A  NEW TRADE PACT. TRADE OFFICIALS FROM THE MEXICO, CANAD AND THE U- S MET IN MEXICO TO BUT THE PRESIDENT ALSO THREATENING TO RMOVE  THE U-S FROM THE SOUTH KOREAN TRADE DEAL,  "I'M REAL CONCERNED ABOUT THE SABER RATTLING OF TRADE, AND WE  NEED TO DSEE EXPANDING TRADE NOT LIMITING TRADE. SO IF WE'RE  GOING OT RENEGOTIATE NAFTA, LET'S BE CAREFUL BECAUSE MEXICO AND  CANDA IS OUR MOST IMPORTANT TRADING PARTNER FOR ALMOST EVERY  STATE WE SURVEY. "> GOSS THINKS THE GRAIN SECTOR HAS THE MOST AT  STAKE WHEN LOOKING SPECIFICALLY AT NAFTA. 

MEAT EXPORT NUMBERS
ALL THIS TALK ABOUT TRADE, THE LATEST NUMBERS  FROM U-S MEAT EXPORT FEDERATION SHOWS BEEF  SHIPMENTS WERE THE SHINING STAR IN JULY. U-S-M-E-F SAYSBEEF EXPORTS UP FIVE PERCENT YEAR  OVER YEAR IN VOLUME. AND 18-PERCENT HIGHER IN  VALUE. SHIPMENTS TO JAPAN CLIMBING 20-PERCENT FROM  JULY 2016, BUT THAT'S BEFORE JAPAN SLAPPED AN  INCREASED TARIFF ON U-S BEEF. IT'S A DIFFERENT STORY FOR PORK.  THE U-S SHIPMENTS WERE DOWN FOUR PERCENT FROM  A YEAR AGO IN VOLUME.  ONE BRIGHT-SPOT - PORK EXPORTS TO SOUTH KOREA  SHOT 30-PERCENT HIGHER YEAR OVER YEAR. 

DROUGHT AND WILDFIRES
IT'S DROUGHT EATING INTO OUTLOOKS IN THE  NORTHERN PLAINS. AND AS DRYNESS TIGHTENS ITS  GRIP, WILDFIRES RAGE. SO FAR, THE FLAMES CHARRING  NEARLY 1 POINT 5 MILLION ACRES, FORCING  EVACUATIONS AND RANCHERS FINDING SAFER GROUND  FOR LIVESTOCK. CHECK OUT THIS DRAMATIC TIMELAPSE VIDEO OF THE  FIERCE FIRES IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AREA IN  WASHINGTON STATE. IT SHOWS YOU HOW QUICKLY THE  WILDFIRES CONSUME AREAS, WITH THIS VIDEO TAKEN  BETWEEN THIS WAS SHOT IN 12 HOURS. THEDROUGHT IN MONTANA A BREEDING GROUND FOR  WILDFIRES, ONGOING FOR MONTHS, WITH MORE THAN 1  MILLION ACRES BURNED IN THAT STATE ALONE THIS  YEAR.

WEATHER
THAT'S IT FOR NEWS...METEOROLOGIST CINDI  CLAWSON JOINS US NOW WITH THE NATIONAL FORECAST. CINDI, FROM WILDFIRES IN THE NORTHWEST, TO  HURRICANE IN THE SOUTHEAST, IT'S TWO EXTREMES  FOR OUR VIEWERS.. HOPEFULLY THERE'S RELIEF IN  YOUR EXTENDED OUTLOOK...  YEAH, TYNE IT DEFINITELY HAS BEEN STRESSFUL ON IT FOR BOTH  REASONS. YOU KNOW YOU'VE GOT TWO DIFFERENT EXTREMES BETWEEN  HURRICANES AND WILDFIRES AND YOU DON'T CERTAINLY WANT TO SEE ANY  OF THAT. LET'S START OFF WITH THE JET STREAM AND WE ARE LOOKING AT  STILL A PRETTY BIG RIDGE IN THE NATION'S MIDSECTION THAT'S GOING TO  KEEP THOSE TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE ESPECIALLY FOR MUCH  OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THAT RIDGE IS GOING TO BE MOVING OFF  TO THE EAST FOR A LOT OF FOLKS IT'S BEEN COOL SO IT'LL BE NICE AND  WARM UP FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST YOU  CAN ACTUALLY SEE IRMA ON OUR FORECAST MODEL SHOWING THE JET  STREAM YOU CAN ACTUALLY SEE THE LOW PRESSURE OVER IRMA THERE.  WE DO CONTINUE TO SEE WARM TEMPERATURES OUT IN THE WEST. BUT  NOTICE WE START TO SEE A LITTLE BIT OF A DIP IN THE JET STREAM AGAIN  BRINGING SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES  AND INTO THE NORTHEAST AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ALL RIGHT  HERE'S A LOOK AT OUR 30 DAY TEMPERATURES. WE'RE GOING TO BE A BIT  ON THE COOL SIDE ALL THE WAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN TO THE  GULF COAST. IT'S A LITTLE BIT WARM OUT INTO THE WEST AND INTO  SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION WE ARE LOOKING AT  WET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD A LITTLE BIT OUT IN THE  WEST BUT MOST OF THE NATION'S MIDSECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ON  THE DRY SIDE. TYNE. 

FARM JOURNAL REPORT
THANKS, CINDI. USDA REVISING IT'S NET FARM INCOME  FORECAST, SHOWING NET FARM INCOME COULD BE IN  THE GREEN THIS YEAR, UP 13 PERCENT FROM LAST  YEAR. BUT IT'S THE TALE OF TWO STORIES, WITH THE  LIVESTOCK SECTOR PERFORMING BETTER THAN  GRAINS. DESPITE TURBULENCE IN FARM COUNTRY,  ECONOMISTS CONTINUE TO BE IMPRESSED BY  FARMERS' RESILIENCY.  THE GRIM OUTLOOK ON THE FARM ECONOMY IS A  BROKEN RECORD FOR FARMERS, WITH  FOUR STRAIGHT  YEARS OF NEGATIVE NET FARM INCOME. . BUT AFTER  MULTIPLE YEARS OF DECLINING CASH FLOW, SIGNS ARE  MODESTLYU POINTING UP.  I THINK IT'S PROBABLY BETTER THAN WE EXPECTED  LAST YEAR, BUT STILL NOWHERE NEAR WHERE WE WANT IT TO BE. JACKSON TAKACH IS AN ECONOMIST FOR FARMERMAC.  IN THE LATEST QUARTERLY EDITION OF THE FEED,  FARMER MAC REVEALING LIVESTOCK PRODUCERS  FAIRING BETTER THAN THEIR GRAIN COUNTERPARTS SO  FAR IN 2017.  . IF YOU LOOK AT THE DAIRY INDUSTRY, IF YOU LOOK AT  THE CATTLE INDUSTRY HOGS POULTRY ALMOST IN THE LIVESTOCK SECTORS,  CASH RECEIPTS LOOK TO BE UP THIS YEAR COMPARED TO 16; MUCH  HIGHER THAN WE EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR. FARMERMAC SAYS  DESPITE THE CRUMBLING CORN  PRICES, THE OVERALL AG ECONOMY IS SHOWING SIGNS  OF REBOUNDING.  I THINK WE'RE ON OUR WAY. I DO THINK THAT THE DECLINES IN  NET FARMING INOME HAVE STARTED TO LEVEL OFF ; WE SAW A BOUNCE  THIS YEAR IN NET FARM INCOME AND NET CASH INCOME IS WHAT WE'RE  EXPECTING.  SO MAYBE WE'RE CLOSE TO THAT BOTTOM NOW  BUT IT'S THOES FARMING AREAS HEAVILY RELIANT  PON ROW CROPS STILL SHOWING STRESS.  IN OUR AREA, I PROJECT WE'RE GOING TO SEE FLAT INCOMES, AT BEST.  OBVISOULY THERE'S GOING TO BE SOME OUTLIARS, BUT IN CONTRACST, I'D  SAY WE ARE LOOKING AT FLAT INCOMES IN CONTRAST TO LAST YEAR.  HOSKINS SAYS THE YIELD STORY IS STILL UNWRITTEN,  BUT ONCE COMBINES ROLL THIS FALL, A MORE  ACCURATE FINANCIAL PICTURE WILL BE PORTRAYED.  "WE'RE DEFINITELY SEEING SOME PEOPLE THAT  ARE GOING THROUGH SOME STRESS FINANCIALLY, NO QUESTIONS, IT HINK  ONE OF THE THINGS WE ARE LOOKING FOR IS THE STRESS IN WORKING  CAPITAL.  " HOSKINS SAYS AFTER HARVEST, WHEN PRODUCERS  PUSH THE PENCIL TO PAPER,  IF RED IS THE FINAL  NUMBER, CONVERSATION IS KEY.   DON'T BE AFRAID TO HAVE HTAT CONVERSATION  WITH YOUR LENDER, WITH YOUR SPOUSE, WITH THE PERSON HELPING YOU  WITH MARKETING BECAUSE JUST BECAUSE IT DOESN'T PENCIL OUT THIS  YEAR, CANDIDLY, THERE WERE OPERATIONS THAT RAN INTO SITUATIONS THIS  YEAR, WHERE IT DIDN'T PENCIL OUT" HOSKINS SAYS IN SOME CASES, THERE'S STILL ENOUGH  WORKING CAPITAL RESERVE TO STILL OFFSET DOWN  YEARS.   BUT IT'S THAT WORKING CAPITAL THAT'S HELPED MANY  PRODUCERS SURVIVE THE ECONOMIC HEADWINDS.    THAT'S THE SURPRISING FACTOR IN THIS.  DELINQUECINES ARE UP. BAKFUPTRICES OR FLORECLOSURES ARE UP, BUT   NOT WHAT YOU'D EXPECT. WE'VE HAD FOUR STRARIGHT WE'VE HAD FOUR  STRAIGHT YEARS OF DECLINING INCOME.THE DELINQUENCY RATES ARE STILL VERY LOW. I WOULD HAVE  EXPECTED MORE OF A MOVEMENT IF WE WERE GOING TO HAVE A REALLY  SIGNIFICANT DOWNTURN IN THE FARM FINANCIAL SECTOR. SO THEY'RE STILL  PRETTY LOW HISTORICALLY, BUT THEY ARE UP FROM THE FROM ABSOLUTE  LOWS THAT WE SAW BACK WHEN 2016, SO THAT WAS KIND OF THE  BOTTOM OF THE LEVEL OF DELINQUENCIES AT BANKS AND FARM CREDITS.  SO IT'S UP A LITTLE BIT BUT IT'S NOT UP DOUBLE OR TRIPLE THE LEVELS THAT  WE SAW MAYBE IN 2009 DURING THE FINANCIAL CRISIS AND THE GREAT  RECESSION. SO WE'RE NOT SEEING ANY SORT OF JUMPS LIKE WE DID  BACK THEN. SO I THINK THAT'S A PRETTY POSITIVE SIGN LOOKING FORWARD. THAT RESILLIENCY IS ONE REASON TAKACH HAS A  SLIGHTLY MORE POSITIVE OUTLOOK ON THE FARM  ECONOMY.  WELL I'VE GOT TO GIVE THE ECONOMY SOMEONE LIKE A B- MINUS MAYBE UPGRADED FROM A C EARLIER THIS YEAR JUST BECAUSE  WE HAVE SEEN THE LIVESTOCK THAT THAT HALF OF THE AG SECTOR IS  DOING MUCH BETTER THAN WE EXPECTED SO THEY'RE KIND OF RAISING  THE TIDE A LITTLE BIT. > WHILE GOSS FORSEES CONTINUED PAIN FOR  PRODUCERS FOR NEXT FEW MONTHS , IT'S THE START  OF A NEW CALENDAR YEAR THAT COULD BRING A FRESH START, IMPROVING FROM HIS C-GRADE TODAY.  - WHEN YOU PUT LIVESTOCK IN WITH GRAINS, IT  GETS BETTER. AND THAT C I EXPECT TO MOVE UP TO B BY THE QUARTER 1  OF 2018." DESPITE UNCERTAINTLY SURROUNDING TRADE, GOSS  LIKES WHAT HE SEES REGARDING EXPORTS. THAT'S  WHY HE THINKS A DECLINING U-S DOLLAR AND TRADE  WILL HELP DRIVE IMPROVED AG CONDITIONS INTO THE  NEW YEAR. ALSO, IF YOU'D LIKE A COPY OF FARMERMAC'S THE  FEED WHICH COMES OUT LATE NEXT WEEK, JUST GO TO  FARMERMAC.COM  AND SIGN UP. 

TEASE
UP NEXT, JOHN PHIPPS. IS ANYONE LISTENING OUT THERE?

CUSTOMER SUPPORT
IF YOU'VE WATCHED OUR PROGRAM OVER THE YEARS,  YOU KNOW JOHN IS A FAN OF TECHNOLOGY. AND IT'S  SOME OF THOSE GADGETS THAT CATCH VIEWERS'  ATTENTION ON THE FARM. JOHN.  A FEW WEEKS AGO, I TALKED ABOUT HOW OUR BRAINS CAN STRUGGLE  WHEN WE ARE IN SCARCITY MODE, SOMETHING I THOUGHT MIGHT HELP  PEOPLE IMPROVE THEIR DECISION MAKING DURING HARVEST. BUT FOR  SOME OF YOU, THERE WAS A DIFFERENT MESSAGE. THERE WAS THIS EMAIL FROM CHERRI KLINGINSMITH: "IS THAT AN ELECTRIC OPENER ON YOUR STRAIGHT TRUCK? WHERE DID YOU  FIND THAT?" AND AN EVEN BETTER ONE FROM LARRY BOWHAY: "ON AUG 27 YOU WERE ON YOUR FARM STANDING BEHIND TWO  TANDEMS. IT LOOKED LIKE YOU HAVE HYDRAULIC ASSIST CYLINDERS ON  YOUR END GATES OF THOSE TRUCKS. MY MOM IS 84 AND WANTS TO  DRIVE THE TWO TONS ANOTHER YEAR LIKE SHE HAS THE LAST 60 PLUS  YEARS BUT HER PROBLEM IS GETTING THE END GATES UP. WHERE DID  YOU GET THE ASSIST CYLINDERS FOR THE END GATES? TRYING TO RETIRE  HER BUT YOU KNOW HOW THAT GOES. LOCAL GRAIN ELEVATOR HELP WOULD  MISS HER THOUGH." LOOK, I HATE TO BE A PARTY TO ELDER ABUSE, BUT MY SON JUST HAD  THIS CONVERSATION WITH THE LADY I LIVE WITH, WHO IS SLIGHTLY  YOUNGER, SO I KNOW WHERE YOU ARE COMING FROM, LARRY. FARM JOURNAL HAS A STRICT PROHIBITION ON ENDORSEMENTS, BUT I'M  MAKING AN EXCEPTION HERE. THE ELECTRIC GRAIN GATE IS MADE BY  SHURCO. IF YOU GOOGLE "SHURCO ELECTRIC GATE" YOU'LL GO RIGHT TO IT.  THIS WILL BE OUR SECOND YEAR WITH THE GRAIN GATE, HOIST CONTROL,  AND ELECTRIC TARP, AND WE'VE BEEN HAPPY WITH THE PERFORMANCE OF  ALL OF THEM. YOU CAN CONTROL THE GATE FROM THE BACK OF THE BED,  BUT FOR UNLOADING AT AN AUGER WITH THE WIND SWIRLING AROUND, THE  REMOTE IS A HUGE IMPROVEMENT, BECAUSE YOU CAN STAND UPWIND.  NOT ONLY IS IT A BACK-SAVER, IT KEEPS PEOPLE CLEANER AND SAFER.  NOTE IT IS NOT FAST, BUT THAT IS A GOOD THING, I THINK. INSTALLATION  WAS NOT HARD, AND WE'VE HAD ZERO PROBLEMS. IF ANYONE FROM  SHURCO IS WATCHING, I DO ACCEPT FREE-WILL DONATIONS. THANKS FOR WATCHING, SEND ME AN ADDRESS FOR A MUG AND MAYBE  I'LL STUMBLE ON TO A TOPIC THAT WILL HOLD YOUR ATTENTION A LITTLE  BETTER.

TEASE
THANKS, JOHN. AND IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  OR COMMENTS, JUST EMAIL JOHN AT MAILBAG AT U-S  FARM REPORT DOT COM. UP NEXT, WE HEAD OUT WEST TO VISIT BAXTER BLACK.

BAXTER BLACK
IT'S TIME NOW TO PAY A VISIT OUT WEST AND CATCH UP  WITH BAXTER BLACK.  TRIANGLES HAVE A UNIQUE PLACE IN OUR WORLD. ENGINEERS USE THEM  TO BUILD BRIDGES. RIGOROUS USE THAT TO CREATE HIS THEOREM AND  THEY SHORTSTOP USES IT TO MAKE A DOUBLE PLAY TRIANGLE STRENGTHEN  STRUCTURES. IT TAKES THREE STRAIGHT LINES GOING NOWHERE AND FORM  A BOND THAT CAN WITHSTAND GREAT PRESSURE. I GET TO SEE THIS  COHESIVE COMBINATION IN ANOTHER TRIANGLE WOMAN HORSE CHILD IS  REALLY EVIDENT WHEN THE CHILD HAS DOWN'S SYNDROME OR MULTIPLE  SCLEROSIS OR ANY OTHER DISABILITY THAT RESTRICTS THEIR POSSIBILITIES.  AND A LOT OF EQUINE THERAPEUTIC RIDING PROGRAMS THAT I'VE LISTED.  WOMEN ARE THE PREDOMINANT HANDS ON THE HELPERS IN THE ARENA  TO BE SUCCESSFUL. A MUTUAL TRUST HAS TO BE ESTABLISHED. A WOMAN  INTRODUCES THE CHILD TO THE HORSE. AND THIS ALLOWS THE CHILD TO  GIVE THE HORSE THE BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT BECAUSE THE WOMAN  TRUSTS THE HORSE.  AND THE CHILD TRUST THE WOMAN AND THE CHILD IS SET UP ON A  HORSE'S BACK. IT'S REALLY STILL IN HIS MOTHER'S ARMS READY TO BE  RESCUED IF NEED BE AND THROUGH A LONG PROGRESSION OF WALKS  AROUND THE ARENA. THE CHILD'S FACE INCREASES IN THE HORSE AND  EVENTUALLY THE CHILD WILL TRUST HIM. THE TRIANGLE IS COMPLETE. THEY'VE CONNECTED THE WOMAN TO THE  CHILD TO THE HORSE AND BACK TO THE WOMAN. AND IT'S ESPECIALLY  OBVIOUS THAT ANY EQUINE THERAPEUTIC RIDING CENTER. CHECK IT OUT FOR YOURSELF. YOU'LL SEE SMALL ISLANDS OF WOMAN OR CHILD  CONCENTRATE ON ONE OF THOSE TRIANGLES.  AND THEN IMAGINE A CHILD ON THE HORSE IS YOURS. YOU'VE BECOME  HYPER SENSITIVE TO THE SLIGHTEST MOVEMENT. BE IT PROTECTIVE OR  ENCOURAGING OR LOVING AND EVEN THE SMALLEST STEP IN THIS MAGIC  TRIANGLE PERFORMANCE GOING ON IN THE ARENA BECOMES MAGNIFIED.  SUCCESSES ARE MARKED IN THE TINIEST GESTURE AND THE SLIGHTEST  TOUCH AND A TENTATIVE SMILE. THE SKIP OF A HEARTBEAT.  THROUGH THE CLOUD THAT PUTS YOU IN THEIR TRIANGLE. YOU HEAR THE  SOFTEST OF VOICES SAY IT'S ALL RIGHT. HE WON'T HURT YOU. THIS IS  BAXTER BLACK.  COLLAPSING.  [IF YOU'D LIKE TO HEAR MORE FROM BAXTER BLACK,  VISIT BAXTER BLACK DOT COM.

TEASE
UP NEXT, MACHINERY  PETE SHOWCASES A TRACTOR GEM TURNING HEADS  EVERYWHERE IT GOES.  PLEASE STAY WITH US.

TRACTOR TALES
WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES FOLKS!  WE'VE GOT A VERY UNIQUE  PIECE TO SHARE WITH YOU TODAY. THIS 1928 CENTAUR TRACTOR DRAWS ATTENTION EVERYWHERE IT GOES.  OWNER TOM CHEEK TOLD US NOT MANY PEOPLE HAVE SEEN ONE  QUITE LIKE IT.   IT'S A 2 CYLINDER TRACTOR, BUILT IN OHIO AND PACKS A LOT OF CHARACTER.  THIS IS A EARLY MODEL TRACTOR IT'S I CENTAUWER MADE BY THE  CENTRAL TRACTOR COMPANY FROM GREENWICH OHIO MODEL G 2  CYLINDER 6 HORSEPOWER WATER COOLED TWO SPEEDS FORWARD NEW  FORWARD NEUTRAL AND REVERSE. SO IT'S A VERY EARLY VERY EARLY  TRACKER AND AS BEST AS I'M AWARE IT WAS MADE IN 1928.  IT COULD  HAVE BEEN MADE ANYWHERE FROM 1926 THROUGH 28 BUT IT WAS AN  EARLY MODEL TRACTOR THAT WOULD ALLOW THE THE FARMER TO USE HIS HIS  PREVIOUSLY PURCHASED MULE OR HORSE DRAWN EQUIPMENT WITH IT  WITHOUT BUYING ANY ADDITIONAL EQUIPMENT. THEY ENDED UP DOING  QUITE A BIT OF IMPROVISING AND MADE SOME HEAVIER TRACTORS SOME  FOR INDUSTRIAL MODELS WHICH EVEN HAD A LARGER MUCH LARGER  ENGINE AND HALF OF THE ENGINE HAD A AIR COMPRESSOR ON IT. AND  HALF OF IT WAS USED TO RUN IT.  SO IF I COULD USE IT FOR INDUSTRIAL  TOOLS I LIKE TO TRACK TRACTOR BECAUSE IT IS SO UNIQUE. I'VE NEVER  SEEN ANYTHING EVEN CLOSE TO WHAT IT IS. AND I HAD ONE ONE  INDIVIDUAL THAT WAS 89 YEARS OLD COME UP AND SAY SON I'M 89  YEARS OLD AND HE SAID I'VE NEVER SEEN A TRACTOR LIKE THIS. 

COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE
THANKS, GREG AND TOM. THIS WEEKE'S COUNTRY  CHURCH SALUTES GOES TO THE GOOD SAMARITAN  EPISCOPAL CHURCH LOCATED IN SAUK CENTRE,  MINNESOTA. IT'S A SPEICAL WEEKEND, AS THE  CONGREGATION IS CELEBRATING ITS 150TH  ANNIVERSARY ON SUNDAY. CONGRATUATLATIONS AND  OUR THANKS TO NANCY ANERSON FOR SENDING THAT  IN.

TEASE
UP NEXT, FARMERS RUSHING TO BEAT MOTHER  NATURE. WE HAVE PHOTOS NEXT.

FROM THE FARM
WELCOME BACK. WELL, IT WAS REALLY A RACE AGAINST  MOTHER NATURE THIS WEEK, AS FARMERS IN THE SOUTHEAST PREPARED FOR THE WORST. THOSE  HARVEST READY STALKS WOULD BE NO MATCH FOR  FIERCE WINDS. TYRONE WAS BUSY TRYING TO HARVEST  CORN IN SOUTH CAROLINA, IN CASE THEY WERE IN  HURRICANE IRMA'S PATH. HE SAYS HARVEST HA BEEN PRETTY GOOD THIS YEAR,  WITH YIELD SAYING IN THAT 160 TO 190 BUSHEL PER  ACRE RANGE. AND ROSS BELL IS BUSY HARVESTING IN NORHTEAST ARKANSAS. HE SAYS BOTH CORN AND BEAN YIELDS  HAVE BEEN IMPRESSIVE SO FAR, SHOWING ABOVE  AVERAGE YIELDS ON THE COMBINE. IF YOU HAVE A PICTURE OF VIDEO YOU'D LIKE TO SEND  IN, SEND THOSE TO MAILBAG-AT-U-S-FARM-REPORT-DOT- COM OR CHECK US OUT ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER.

CLOSE
FROM ALL OF US AT U.S. FARM REPORT, I'M TYNE  MORGAN. THANK YOU FOR WATCHING U-S FARM  REPORT.  BE SURE TO JOIN US RIGHT HERE AGAIN NEXT  WEEK, AS WE WORK TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION. HAVE  A GREAT AND SAFE WEEKEND, EVERYONE.  

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Comments

 
Spell Check

Joel Snell
Webster, NY
9/17/2017 06:42 PM
 

  I enjoy your program on the weekend . My problem is that every thing past "customer support'. does not show anymore. I have always liked the end segments of your great program.

 
 

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