USFR Weekly Recap - February 18-19, 2017

February 18, 2017 03:30 AM
 
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TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
FEBRUARY 18-19, 2017

HEADLINES

WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M TYNE MORGAN,  AND HERE'S WHAT WE'RE WORKING ON FOR YOU OVER  THE NEXT 60 MINUTES. COTTON ACREAGE COULD SEE A BOOST THIS YEAR.  WE'LL TELL YOU HOW MUCH.  TRRDE TALKS TURN INTO A POSSIBLE TRADE WAR,  COMING AT THE COST OF CORN. NOW THE MEAT INDUSTRY IS ON EDGE, BUT COULD  BILATERAL AGREEMENTS SAVE THE DAY?  <"IF IT'S A BI-LATERAL AGREEMENT, WE CAN SUPPORT THAT> AND IN JOHN'S WORLD... <AH, MY CORN GROWER DAYS>   <U.S. FARM REPORT - BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE DEPENDABLE, LONG  LASTING, CHEVY SILVERADO.>

COTTON INCREASE
NOW FOR THE NEWS THAT MOVED THE MARKETS THIS  WEEK, BETTER PRICES AND MOISTURE HELPING ENTICE  FARMERS TO PLANT MORE COTTON ACRES THIS YEAR,  WITH EARLY ESTIMATES POINTING TO A NEARLY 10  PERCENT JUMP OVER LAST YEAR.  U-S COTTON FARMERS COULD PLANT 11 MILLION ACRES  OF COTTON THIS YEAR.. A 9 POINT 4 PERCENT HIKE  FROM LAST YEAR.  THAT'S ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL COTTON  COUNCIL'S ANNUAL PLANTING INTENTIONS SURVEY,  GROWERS IN  THE SOUTHWEST  INTEND TO PLANT  NEARLY 11-PERCENT MORE COTTON ACRES,  TEXAS IS  INCREASING ITS COTTON PLANTINGS BY NINE-AND A  HALF PERCENT, OR ABOUT A HALF MILLION ACRES. AND IN THE MID-SOUTH - COTTON COULD SEE A NEARLY  13-PERCENT INCREASE OVERALL. MISSISSIPPI LEADS  THAT REGION WITH A BOOST OF 27-PERCENT. 

RENEGOTIATING NAFTA
REGNOTIATING NAFTA IS STARTING TALKS OF A TRADE  WAR AND IT COULD COME AT THE COST OF CORN. A MEXICAN SENATOR SAYS HE'S INTRODUCING A BILL   FOR MEXICO TO BUY CORN FROM BRAZIL AND  ARGENTINA, INSTEAD OF HTE U-S.  THE LAWMAKER MADE THE STATEMENT AT AN ANTI  TRUMP PROTEST IN MEXICO CITY LAST WEEKEND. AND MEXICO'S AG MINISTER SAID HE'LL LEAD A TRIP TO  ARGENTINA AND BRAZIL TO LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL  THERE.  THE U-S HAS SEEN A BOOST IN DEMAND SINCE NAFTA  WAS IMPLEMENTED.  IN 2015, 2 POINT 4 BILLION DOLLARS WORTH OF CORN  SHIPPED TO MEXICO. IN 1995, CORN EXPORTS TOTALED  391 MILLION DOLLARS.  AS PRESIDENT TRUMP MET WITH HIS CANADIAN  COUNTERPART PRIME MINISTER JUSTIN TRUDEAU THIS  WEEK, SAYING HIS PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE THREE- WAY TRADE DEAL CALLED "NAFTA" IS WITH MEXICO AND  NOT CANADA.

DOW HITS ALL TIME HIGH
THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL HITTING A NEW ALLTIME  HIGH THIS WEEK AFTER FEDERAL CHAIR JANET YELLEN  TESTIFIED IN WASHINGTON THIS WEEK.  IN HER REMARKS, YELLEN SAID THAT WAITING TOO  LONG TO RAISE INTEREST RATES WOULD BE UNWISE,  CONSIDERING THE RISE IN INFLATION AND ECONOMIC  GROWTH.    

WEATHER
THOSE ARE THE HEADLINES...WELL, MANY VIEWERS  SEEING ANOTHER BIG WARM UP THIS WEEK/ BUT CAN IT  CONTINUE? HERE'S METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMANWITH A LOOK AT WEATHER. THANKS TYNE. WE DEFINITELY ARE GOING TO GET SOME MOISTURE ACROSS  MUCH OF THE LOWER FORTY EIGHT TO HELP OUT WITH SOME OF THESE  DROUGHT AREAS IN A BEEN SHRINKING ALL ALONG YOU CAN SEE THERE  ARE STILL POCKETS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTHERN PLAINS. AND A COUPLE OF SPOTS LEFT IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH EXTREME  DROUGHT. BUT THE CHANGE OVER THE PAST MONTH HAS BEEN PRETTY  DRAMATIC. YOU CAN SEE THERE IS EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT  OVER A GOOD CHUNK OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA A MONTH  AGO THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY SHRINKING AS WE'VE MOVED THROUGH THE  LAST FOUR WEEKS. SO IT 'S BEEN PRETTY DRAMATIC AND IT LOOKS LIKE  MORE MOISTURE IS COMING. IN FACT   AS WE START THE WEEK ON MONDAY WERE LOOKING AT A PRETTY WET  SYSTEM THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. THAT  SHOULD HELP THOSE DROUGHT AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS FARTHER  NORTH IT'S GOIGN TO BE COLD IN THE NORTHEAST BUT PRETTY MILD FOR MOST OF  THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY EVEN WARM FOR THE SOUTHEAST  AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ON MONDAY. NEXT STORM SYSTEM  COMING IN WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS OUT WEST AS WE HAVE  THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN THAT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE  SOUTHERN PLAINS A VERY SLOW MOVER SO WE'RE STILL LOOKING AT SOME  RAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST A WEAK FRONT MAY CAUSE A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE NORTHERN LIKE  SAYING YOU CAN SEE A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS AIR OUT WEST NORTHERN  PLAINS   BUT THAT ONE COMING IN IN THE FAR WEST IS GOING TO BE A BIG ONE  ONCE AGAIN AS WE HEAD TOWARD FRIDAY THAT 'S GOING TO BE A LARGE  STORM SYSTEM. THE WAY I LOOKED RIGHT NOW WITHOUT A LOT OF RAIN  WITH THIS SYSTEM SNOW ON THE NORTHERN FRENCH AND IN SNOW BACK  ACROSS THE ROCKIES. BUT THE WARMTH WILL BE REPLACED BY CHILLIER AIR  COMING WITH THAT SYSTEM   WE'LL BE BACK IN OUR NEXT HALF HOUR. THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST

TEASE
WHEN WE COME BACK, THE SURGE IN SOYBEAN PRICES  SPARKIGN OPTIMISM FROM TEH NATIONAL FARM  MACHINERY SHOW. WE'RE ON THE ROAD FROM  LOUISVILLE WITH BILL BIEDERMANN, JAROD CREED AND  CHIP NELLINGER NEXT.  <HERE'S YOUR CHANCE TO WIN A DREAM SPORT TRIP,  PLUS A 10,000 DONATION FOR A COMMUNCITY SPACE.  TEXT DREAM TO 31313 TO ENTER TODAY>

ROUNDTABLE 1
US FARM REPORT ON THE ROAD AT THE 2017 NATIONAL FARM  MACHINERY SHOW IS BROUGHT TO YOU BY KUBOTA TRACTOR  CORPORATION - WHERE PASSION MEETS PERFORMANCE, KUBOTA HELPS  YOU ACHIEVE MORE.   BY TRIVAPRO (TREE-VA-PRO) FUNGICIDE FROM SYNGENTA, THE LONGEST- LASTING, HARDEST-WORKING FUNGICIDE FOR HIGHER YIELDS AND  MAXIMUM RETURN ON INVESTMENT.  TO LEARN MORE VISIT WWW DOT  SYNGENTA U.S. DOT COM FORWARD SLASH TRIVAPRO (TREE-VA-PRO).  AND BY FARMER'S EDGE.  FOR THE LATEST IN MAKING SENSE OF YOUR  DATA, VISIT GROW YOUR RETURNS DOT COM.   WELCOME BACK TO US FARM REPORT. AS I PROMISED WE'RE HERE FROM THE NATIONAL FARM MACHINERY SHOW. ALWAYS A GOOD ENERGETIC CROWD HERE AT THE FMS THAT'S THE CASE AGAIN THIS YEAR. WE'RE GLAD EVERYONE MADE IT OUT FOR THIS YEAR'S FARM MACHINERY SHOW. SPEAKING OF THE SHOW, MOODS, IT SEEMS LIKE MOODS ARE BETTER THAN WHERE WE WERE A YEAR AGO. IS THAT BECAUSE OF BETTER PRICES? OVERALL, WHAT DO YOU THINK IS DRIVING THIS RESILIENCY IN THE MOODS ACROSS FARM COUNTRY RIGHT NOW? I THINK THE EXPECTED RALLIES SINCE THANKSGIVING HAS REALLY BOOSTED A LOT OF ALTITUDE OUT THERE. I SAW AT LEAST 10 GUYS OUT THERE BIDDING ON THE SAME TRACTOR. I THINK THAT'S REALLY HELPED A LOT. THE QUESTION IS IF IT WILL STAY HERE. GIVE YOU A CHANCE TO SELL. THE QUESTION IS NOT ONLY WILL IT STAY BUT HAVE WE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF THESE PRICES. SO JAROD IN YOUR MIND, WHEN WE HAVE SOME OF THESE PRICES AT PROFITABLE LEVELS, DO YOU THINK ENOUGH PRODUCERS HAVE FOR CONTRACTING AT THOSE PRICES. JIM AND I WERE TALKING ABOUT THIS LAST NIGHT THAT THIS YEAR'S MARKETING OPPORTUNITY THAT WE HAVE IN THE NEXT IN THE LAST COUPLE WEEKS AND IN THE NEXT COUPLE WEEKS MOVING FORWARD. IT'S AN ENTIRELY DIFFERENT STORY THAN IT WASAT THIS TIME LAST YEAR. LAST YEAR IT SEEMED LIKE WE WERE TRYING TO CREATE A MARKETING PLAN TO BREAKEVEN ON  CORN AND ULTIMATELY DEFEND SOME LOSSES ON SOYBEANS. FAST FORWARD TO THIS YEAR, IT'S A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SITUATION WE'VE HAD FOR MULTI-YEARS. COSTS ARE DOWN ON CORN, MAYBE NOT ON SOYBEANS, BUT PRICES IN RELATIONSHIP TO ALL OF THIS IS GIVEN THE OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE A DECISION TO DECIDE HOW MUCH MONEY DO WE WANT TO MAKE RATHER THAN HOW MUCH MONEY AM I GOING TO POTENTIALLY LOSE. WHAT'S DRIVING THIS RIGHT NOW? WHEN YOU LOOK AT SOYBEAN PRICES, THEY ARE PRETTY FRIENDLY COMPARED TO WHAT WE THOUGHT THEY WOULD BE AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SO WHAT'S DRIVING THAT MOMENTUM? I THINK IT'S TWO SEPERATE THINGS IN THE CORN AND WHEAT MARKET. BEANS TREMEMDOUS DEMAND. WE'VE KNOWN THAT. RECORD LARGE DEMAND. CHINA TAKES BASICALLY HALF OF THE WORLD CROP BETWEEN US AND THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. THAT'S WHATS DRIVING THAT. THE FUNDS LOVE THE BEAN MARKET SO THEY'VE BEEN BUYING BEANS. THEY HAVE A NEARLY RECORD LONG POSITION WHEN YOU LOOK AT CORN, BEANS, WHEAT COMBINED. CORN, MEAL AND OIL COMBINED. CORN AND WHEAT ON THE OTHER HAND, I THINK THAT'S MORE OF A VALUE THING. THERE'S A LOT OF MONEY OUT THERE. THERE'S A DIVERSIFICATION COMING. MAYBE OUT OF THE STOCK MARKET AND OTHER INVESTMENTS JUST BUYING SOMETHING THAT'S CHEAP. CORN, RELATIVELY SPEAKING, IS STILL DOWN NEAR A 5-YEAR LOW. WHEAT IS COMING OFF OF A 10 YEAR LOW. I THINK SOME OF THIS DOESN'T HAVE TO DO ANYTHING WITH THE FUNDAMENTALS OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND, IT'S JUST MONEY TRYING TO BUY SOMETHING THAT;S CHEAP RIGHT NOW. WITH THIS REASONING, WITH THIS PRICE ACTION WHERE WE ARE TODAY, IS THERE AN ERA THAT YOU COMPARE THIS TO? IS THERE A SIMILARITY TO ANY HISTORY THAT YOU CAN GIVE US AN IDEA OF WHAT WE'RE DEALING WITH RIGHT NOW? IT'S REALLY INTERESTING RIGHT NOW BECAUSE IF YOU LOOK THE STOCKS TO USE RATIOS ON CORN AT ABOUT 16 PERCENT AND WHERE THE DOLLAR IS, THE STOCKS AND THE DOLLAR MATCH UP OF 1997 TO THE YEAR 2000. ALSO, THE SOYBEAN THE STOCKS MATCH UP REAL WELL. BACK INTO 1984 THROUGH 87. IF YOU GO BACK AND LOOK AT THOSE TWO YEARS, THE PICTURE DOESN'T LOOK GOOD. ONCE WE DO PUT IN OUR SEASONAL TOP, FOR INSTANCE IN BOTH OF THOSE ERAS, WITH THE DOLLAR WHERE IT'S AT, SOYBEANS WERE AT 5 BUCKS MINUS. DO YOU THINK WE'RE PUTING THE SEASONAL TOP IN BEFORE PLANTING HITS? LIKE CHIP JUST MENTIONED, WE'RE NOT DOING ANYTHING FUNDAMENTAL RIGHT NOW. DO WE NEED 93, 94 MILLION ACRES OF CORN NEXT YEAR? WE TALKED ABOUT IT ON THE SHOW A MONTH AGO IN A JOKINGLY FASHION IF THE MARKET WOULD FIND A WAY TO RALLY ANOTHER 15 20 CENTS, WHOS TO SAY WE DON'T PLANT A SIMILAR AMOUNT OF CORN ACRES AS WE DID LAST YEAR. HERE WE ARE MAKING THESE UNSEASONAL MOVES OR COUNTERSEASONAL MOVES THAT ULTIMATELY PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY. I DON'T WANT TO SAY WE'RE NECESSARILY PUTTING IN A TOP, BUT IT'S DEFINATELY AN OPPORTUNITY THAT WE HAVE TO BE ACTING ON. IT JUST DOESN'T COME AROUND LIKE WE HAVE RIGHT NOW. AT THE SAME TIME JAROD MENTIONED ACREGE. WE HAVE ACREAGE ESTIMATES THAT WE'RE EXPECTING OUT OF USDA  NEXT MONTH. DO YOU THINK IT'S POSSIBLE WE GET CLOSE TO 90 MILLION ACRES IN SOYBEANS? AND IF WE DO WHAT DOES THAT DO TO THE MARKET. I THINK LIKE JAROD SAID. I THINK THAT THE ACREAGE THING IS A LITTLE MORE IN FLUX RIGHT NOW BECAUSE OF THE RALLY WE JUST HAD. YOU'RE BACK ABOVE 4 DOLLAR DEC CORN FUTURES. I THINK THAT HAS PRODUCERS HOW TO THINKING MAYBE I WAS GOING TO SWITCH A FEW ACRES, BUT WE HAVE A 4 IN FRONT OF IT. I LIKE TO PLANT CORN SO LETS KEEP PLANTING CORN. I THINK IT'S UP IN THE AIR A LITTLE BIT. I THINK THE PRODUCERS WE WORK WITH IN THE SOUTH THERE''S A RUSH OUT OF CORN TO MORE BEANS AND MORE COTTON. A LOT MORE COTTON IN THE SOUTH. I THINK WE'RE GOING TO DEBATE THIS ACREAGE THING PROBABLY AFTER THE MARCH 31 ACREAGE REPORT. WHEN THAT DOES COME OUT, WHAT IS THE BULLISH FACTOR THAT COULD MOVE PRICES HIGHER? IS IT ONLY WEATHER AT THIS POINT? I BELIEVE WE DO. IN CORN, I THINK THAT WE'RE GOING TO REDUCE ACRES ENOUGH TO WHERE IF WE HAVE ANY ADVERSE WEATHER, QUANTITY COULD POP PRETTY GOOD. SOYBEANS ON THE OTHER HAND IF WE EVEN HAVE A 47  BUSHEL TRENDLINE YIELD, WHICH IS A STANDARD TRENDLINE, THAT'S WAY BELOW LAST YEAR, WE WOULD STILL PRODUCE ENOUGH BUSHELS TO MEET DEMAND. IT'S ALMOST IDENTICAL PRODUCTION. IT'S GOING TO TAKE A BIG WEATHER SCARE. SPEAKING OF DEMAND, TALKING OF TRADE, A LOT OF NEWS ON THE TRADE FRONT. WE'LL GET INTO WHAT TRUMP MEANS ON TRADE AND PRICES. WE'LL DO THAT WHEN WE COME BACK ON US FARM REPORT. 

ROUNDTABLE 2
WELCOME BACK AS I MENTIONED SO MUCH NEWS ON THE TRADE FRONT THIS WEEK AND JARED WHEN WE WILL GET A HAND MEXICO WE HAD A MEXICAN LEGISLATOR THAT THREATENS TO STOP BUYING CORN FROM THE U S AND GO TO ARGENTINA AND BRAZIL DOES THAT SCARE YOU I MEAN HOW COULD THAT IMPACT PRICES A FOUR TO LOSE THAT MARKET?? NO PUN INTENDED BUT THE PLAYING A LITTLE BIT A MEXICAN STANDOFF. WERE DECIDING WHO WANTS TO DO WHAT. IF YOU LOOK AT IT FROM THIRTY THOUSAND FOOT VIEW AND IF MEXICO SHUTS IMPORTS OFF FROM THE U S THEY'RE GONNA GET IT FROM SOUTH AMERICA WHICH ALL THE LEADERS OPENS A DOOR FOR THE UNITED STATES TO EXPORT OUR GRAIN TO THE PLACES WERE REPLACING. T INSTEAD OF SOUTH AMERICA EXPORTING TO THOSE COUNTRIES U S WILL DO IT.  IT JUST CHANGES THE WORLD TRADE GRID. PEOPLE STILL GOTTA EAT. THE DEMAND FOR CORN IS HIGH. IT 'S TOUGH TO SIT HERE AND SAY WHAT IS PRESIDENT TRUMP'S POLICIES GOING TO BE IN LET ALONE IN AN HOUR, LET ALONE IN A MONTH.  THAT HAS TO BE MONITORED. THAT'S ABOUT ALL I CAN PUT ON IT TODAY. YOU CAN'T DENY THE FACT THAT MEXICO IS A BIG BUYER OF PORK AND IN SOME OF THE MEATS. AND SO THE MEAT INDUSTRY ON EDGE BECAUSE THEY'RE IN A FEAR AND WE RENEGOTIATE NAFTA WOULD LOSE SOME OF THAT MARKET FOR A PROTEIN 'S ALSO SO IS THAT I APPLY SOME PRESSURE ONTO THE ONTO THE MEAT MARKET WILL ENSUE IN A TWENTY SEVENTEEN??  IT COULD. BUT AT LEAST THAT FIRST INITIAL IN A BARRAGE OF BACK AND FORTH  A COUPLE WEEKS AGO HAD THE HOG MARKETS SCARED FOR A DAY. THEY THAT WERE RECOVERED IT'S A GLOBAL MARKET IT 'S A WORLD MARKET. THE REALITY IS, COMMODITIES IN FOOD ITEMS ARE GOING TO BE THE LAST THING AT  THE TABLE. THAT DOESN'T MEAN THAT THE MARKET WON'T GET SCARED FOR A LITTLE BIT. MEXICO IS SUCH A HUGE BUYER THEY'RE EITHER GOING TO HAVE TO . CHINA 'S SUCH A HUGE BUYER OF BEANS. WE REALLY HAVEN'T EVEN GOTTEN IN THE CHINA TRADE ISSUES YET. THEY CANT GET THE BEANS ANYWHERE ELSE . SO THEY CAN RETALIATE, THEY CAN TALK THE MARKET LOWER BUT IN THE END RESULT THE DEMANDS REALLY STRONG. THERE 'S A LOT OF ANIMALS LIVESTOCK AND HUMANS TO FEED THE WORLD. AND AND THAT 'S A GOOD THING ABOUT THE SILVER LINE OF ALL THESE MARKETS.  CORN AND BEANS ESPECIALLY. THERE'S GREAT RECORD DEMAND RIGHT NOW. CHIP MENTIONED CHINA. AND WE LOOK AT CHINA AND THE POLICIES THAT THEY PUT ON DDGS ARE WE SEEING THAT IMPACT THIRTY DJ MARKET I MEAN I'M HEARING OF SOME SAND PILES OF SOME OF THE DJ 'S JUST PILE CONTINUING THE PILOT SO WITH THAT BECAUSE CHINA AND SOME OF THESE ASIAN MARKETS ARE BUYING A WELL OF??  CHINA RAISE THEIR IMPORT TARIFFS AGAINST US AND SO DID ANOTHER COUNTRY BUT THERE 'S BEEN FIVE ASIAN COUNTRIES SINCE WE DITCHED THE TPP PROGRAM THAT HAVE REALLY PUT THE KIBOSH IN ALL OF OUR DDGS. AND SO THOSE ARE BACKING UP. IN THE MEAL IS JUST PILING UP. COURSE ANYBODY FROM THE OHMAHA AREA WOULD KNOW THAT. AS THE CRUNCHERS HAVE SHOT BACK A LITTLE BIT. BUT THIS IS A VERY SERIOUS PROBLEM AND I KNOW THAT YOU KNOW TRUMP IS AN EXTREMIST C HE SAYS MAN WE'RE GONNA WE'RE GONNA DO THIS AND THEN HE 'S HOPING TO GET OVER HERE WHEN THEY COME TOGETHER. BUT THIS IS WHAT 'SSCARY. IT'S GONNA IMPACT YOUR INDUSTRY PROBABLY THE WORST. SPEAKING OF POLICIES YOU WILL WITH THE STOCK MARKET AND THE DOW HAD ANNA FRESHEN ALARMING HIGH. WE'VE SEEN THE HIGHS. IT IS WEEKS AWAY SO HIS POLICIES ARE POSITIVELY IMPACTING THE STOCK MARKET DOES THAT LEAD OVER TO US?? BILL WAS MENTIONED THAT EARLIER THAT WE HAVE PRICED IN AN INCREDIBLE AMOUNT OF PREMIUM IN ALMOST ANY FINANCIAL MARKETS IN UNITED STATES. AND TRUSTTHAT TRUMP 'S POLICIES WILL WIN OUT FOR THE GOOD OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE. SHOULD YOU GET A LITTLE FEAR THAT IT 'S NOT GONNA HAPPEN. YOU MIGHT SEE SOME REACTIONS LIKE WE HAD ON ELECTION NIGHT. WHEN YOU HAVE THE S AND P TRADING MASSIVE SWINGS THAT THAT THAT FEAR COMES A LONG LINE AND OLD BOY SPILLS OR IN OTHER COMMODITIES IT 'S RICH RISK OFF AT A CERTAIN POINT. ONCE THE UNCERTAINTY COMES IN PLAY. THAT WE ARE VERY COMFORTABLE WITH  THE STRUCTURE OUR GOVERNMENT POLICIES DO YOU AGREE WITH THAT?? YEAH I MEAN HE 'S HAD A TWO PHASE POLICY AND WERE IN PHASE ONE RIGHT NOW IS TRYING TO GET THE BALL ROLL. AND IF THE BALL START GOING DOWN THE OTHER SIDE OF THE HILL WERE IN TROUBLE. PHASE TWO 'S GONNA BE A PIECE CAKE THAT 'S WHEN HE LOWERS EVERYBODY 'S TAXES. THAT EVERYBODY 'S HAPPY. BUT THIS PHASE ONE IS TOUGH TO GET. IN THE MEANTIME YOU KNOW WE GOTTA KEEP THAT DOLLAR STRONG TO GET THESE CORPORATIONS TO MOVE BACK TO THE UNITED STATES. THAT 'S HEART HISTORY. SO THERE 'S THERE'S SOME GRAVEL ROAD.  SWITCHING GEARSLETS LOOK AT  CATTLE PRICES. WHEN YOU LOOK THE PRICE ACTION THAT WE'VE SEEN SO FAR DO YOU THINK POSSIBLY THAT WE COULD HIGH MAYBE MAYBE THIS SPRING IN THAT TIMEFRAME?? SEASONALLY WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE SPRING HIGHS HAVE YET TO COME. YOU KNOW THE CASH MARKET HAS BROKE A LITTLE BIT. I GUESS WE'RE LOOKING FOR MAYBE A LITTLE MORE DOWNSIDE IN THAT IN THE SHORT RUN HERE BUT YOU KNOW THE NUMBERS ARE KIND OF TIGHTENING UP HERE.AND WE SHOULD HAVE ONE MORE PUSH HIGHER AS A SPRING HIGH TO THE TROUBLE COMES IN THE MARKET SO DISCOUNTED IN THE DEFERRED SO THEY KNOW THAT THERE 'S BIGGER PLACEMENTS OUT THERE THE LAST COUPLE MONTHS AND THERE 'S A BIGGER WALL COMIN A WAY OUT FRONT OF US. SO THAT 'S ALREADY SOMEWHAT CHRIST AND TO THOSE DEFERRED CONTRACTS REAL QUICK. WE'VE SEEN HIM SINCE GOOD MOMENTUM IN THIS WHOLE MARKET THAT CAN THAT CONTINUE WELL THE HALLMARK THAT MAYBE WILL GET A LITTLE BIT TOPPY BUT SO FAR THE THE UP TREND IS INTACT AND UNTIL WE START TAKING OUT. SOME PREVIOUS WEEKLY LOWS YOU HAVE TO ASSUME THAT THE PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE DESIRE FOR SCENES. AN EXPANSION TAKE PLACE IN OHIO MICHIGAN AND INDIANA. WITH THAT PORK PROCESSING PLANT COME ON COME ON ON BOARD AS WELL BE THAT WAY AND THAT 'S A GREAT THING. THE DEMANDS THERE TOO BECAUSE THE LAST COUPLE YEARS WE REALLY INCREASED PORK PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES.ALL RIGHT WELL THAT WOULD QUICKLY IS ALREADY TIME TO GET CLOSE AND THAT 'S A LET 'S TAKE A BREAK AND WE'LL BE BACK IN JUST A MOMENT. ON U S FARM REPORT

MARKETS NOW
ALL RIGHT TIME NOW TO GET A CLOSING THOUGHTS BILL BIEDERMANN LET 'S START WITH YOU. A TREND LINE YIELD WE'RE SAYIN TEN SEVENTY FIVE TO EIGHT SEVENTY FIVE IN BEANS. CORN FOUR TWENTY MAY BE DOWN TO THREE TWENTY. THAT 'S GOING BE PUSHING HARD. BOTTOM LINE IS HEY IF YOU THINK MEANS TO GO TO THIRTEEN DOLLARS TWELVE DOLLARS AND YOU'RE FINE PROBABLY BEING ABOUT WHERE YOU'RE AT.  BUT IF YOU THINK ELEVEN OR MAYBE TWELVE IS GOING TO BE A STRETCH, YOU BETTER BE SELLING BECAUSE IT 'S SOMETHING BELOW NINE IS PROBABLY IN THE FUTURE. JAROD.  I'M NOT ENTIRELY DIFFERENT AND BILL 'S OPINION. THEY'RE THE ONE THING I WOULD LIKE TO POINT OUT IS THAT WE STILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE CONTINUED SOYBEAN DEMAND FROM CHINA. CAUGHT PLENTY OF US OFF GUARD LAST YEAR. HERE RECENTLY,  WE'RE STARTING TO MAKE ADDITIONAL SALES FOR SUMMERTIME SHIPMENT TO CHINA JUST BECAUSE OF VALUES BEING EQUAL. SOUTH AMERICA TO THE U S. AND ULTIMATELY THAT MEANS THAT IF WE DON'T PLANT MORE THAN EIGHTY SIX EIGHTY SEVEN MILLION ACRES OF SOYBEANS WERE IN HAVE AN INTERESTING SITUATION MOVING FORWARD.  MOVING FORWARD. WELL I AGREE IS WHAT THE BOTH THESE GUYS SAID. THERE 'S GONNA BE BIG FLUCTUATIONS. WE KNOW THE VOLITILITY'S GONNA BE THERE. WHAT DO YOU GUYS HAVE TO DO IS GET A PLAN. KNOW WHAT YOUR COST PRODUCTION IS.  HAVE A PLAN AND USE THAT VOLATILITY TO YOUR ADVANTAGE TO POSITION CASH SALES ON RALLIES MAY BE CALLS ON BREAKS. USE THE TOOLS AVAILABLE AND  EXECUTE A WELL THOUGHT OUT MARKETING.  PLANS ARE I THINK YOU ALL FOR BEING HERE THE NATIONAL FARM MACHINERY SHOW SAY WITH US JOHN PHIPPS JOINS US NEXT

JOHN’S WORLD
IT'S TIME NOW FOR THIS WEEK'S JOHN'S WORLD.F OR  THAT, WE HEAD TO THE FARM. JOHN.  'VE BEEN GOING TO MEETINGS THIS WINTER, AND ALMOST INEVITABLY I  RUN INTO PEOPLE I FIRST MET DECADES AGO WHEN I WAS ACTIVE IN  FARM BUREAU OR CORN GROWERS OR OTHER AG ORGANIZATIONS. NOT  ONLY ARE THESE ENCOUNTERS A CHANCE TO REMINISCE AND CATCH UP  ON WHAT'S HAPPENING, THEY ARE RECHARGING EVENTS FOR MY SPIRITS.  AS SOMEONE WISELY SAID, "YOU CAN'T MAKE OLD FRIENDS". THESE  HAPPY EXPERIENCES ALSO UNDERLINE AN ASPECT OF MEMBERSHIP THAT  DOES NOT GET ENOUGH ATTENTION. BELONGING AND ACTIVELY  PARTICIPATING IN FARM ORGANIZATIONS IS WORTHWHILE TO HELP OUR  INDUSTRY, BUT THE GREATEST VALUE MAY BE THE PERSONAL  CONNECTIONS YOU CAN MAKE. READING BACK ON MY WRITINGS FROM THE 80'S IT IS CLEAR TO ME THAT  THE MOST VALUABLE RESOURCE I HAD WAS THE INFORMAL PEER GROUP  THAT AROSE BY SIMPLY SHOWING UP AT MEETINGS AND OCCASIONALLY  ARGUING ABOUT POLICY OR AND THE FUTURE OF OUR PROFESSION. OK,  MAYBE MORE THAN OCCASIONALLY. IT IS A BIG MISTAKE, IN MY OPINION, TO THINK SOCIAL MEDIA LIKE  FACEBOOK CAN REPLICATE THIS WAY OF BUILDING LIFE-ENHANCING TIES  TO FELLOW FARMERS. SCIENCE AND COMMON SENSE BOTH SAY  OTHERWISE. BEGRUDGING A FEW DOLLARS IN MEMBERSHIP FEES SUGGESTS YOU ARE  MISSING THE TRUE VALUE OF BELONGING. GOING TO MEETINGS, SITTING  THROUGH TEDIOUS REPORTS, AND STRUGGLING TO FIND CONSENSUS AREN'T  THE PENALTIES BUT THE PRIVILEGES OF MEMBERSHIP. AND ALL THE TIME  YOU ARE GETTING THE WORK OF THE ORGANIZATION DONE, YOU ARE  WEAVING YOUR OWN SAFETY NET. JOIN. SHOW UP. PARTICIPATE. YOU BUILD YOUR OWN FUTURE BEST WHEN  YOU BUILD FOR ALL OF US.  GOOD ADVICE, THANKS JOHN. LAND VALUES CONTINUE TO FALL, BUT ARE STARTING  TO FIND A BOTTOM IN THIS LAND MARKET? WE'LL HAVE  THE ANSWER NEXT ON U-S FARM REPORT. 

TEASE
WELCOME BACK TO U-S FARM REPORT. WE HAVE MUCH  MORE AHEAD.  FROM CAPITOL HILL TO MAIN STREET - IT'S ALL ABOUT  THE ECONOMY. THE AG LOBBY HAS A 'BEEF' OVER A SEARING TRADE  SPAT... MACHINERY PETE IS WATCHING SURPRISING  MOMENTUM IN SPARYERS.  AND JOHN PHIPPS LOOKS AT TEH NEW PERENNIAL  CROP. 

RURAL MAINSTREET INDEX
NOW FOR THE HEADLINES...A NEW SURVEY OF RURAL  BANKERS IS SHOWING THERE'S SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT  IN THE ECONOMY. BUT THAT'S ABOUT THE ONLY SILVER  LINING IN THE DARK CLOUDS OVER FARM COUNTRY. THE RURAL MAINSTREET INDEX - A MONTHLY GAUGE OF  FARM COUNTRY - ROSE TO ITS HIGHEST LEVEL IN 18  MONTHS.  BUT IT'S STILL BELOW GROWTH NEUTRAL.. THE RMI IS BASED ON SURVEYS WITH BANKERS IN TEN  STATES IN THE MIDWEST AND GREAT PLAINS. ABOUT 15-PERCENT REPORTED IMPROVEMENT. BUT  MORE THAN A THIRD OF THE BANKERS REPORTED  THEIR LOCAL ECONOMY REMAINS IN AN ECONOMIC  DOWNTURN.   AND HALF DESCRIBED THEIR ECONOMIES AS STAGNANT. THE RMI FOUND FARMLAND PRICES FELL 5 PERCENT  OVER THE PAST YEAR, A TREND ONE AG BANKER  THANKS COULD CONTINUE.  <RELATIVE TO PROJECTED NEGATIVE MARGINS, THERE'S STILL THE POTENTIAL  WE COULD SEE SOME FURTHER EROSION IN LAND VALUES IN CERTAIN  AREAS. >

NFMS MOODS, AG ECONOMY
WITH STILL-LOW COMMODITY PRICES AND CREDIT  CHALLENGES, MANY FARMERS SEEM HESITANT TO BUY  EQUIPMENT. BUT OVERALL, THE MODD AT NATIONAL  FARM MACHINERY SHOW WAS UPBEAT THIS WEEK IN  LOUISVILLE. THE ASSOCIATION OF EQUIPMENT MANUFACTURERS  SAYS INVENTORY ON DEALERS LOTS HAS IMPROVED IN  THE PAST 12 MONTHS.  <" I THINK LOOKING AT INVENTORIES IN GENERAL IT 'S IN BETTER SHAPE IS  WHERE WE WANT IT TO BE YET IT MIGHT NOT BE QUITE WHERE WE WANT IT  TO BE BUT IT'S CERTAINLY BETTER SHAPE THAN OVER THE LAST TWO YEARS"-  >MOST EQUIPMENT MANUFACTURERS TOLD ME THEY  ANTICIPATE SALES TO BE FLAT FROM 2016.  THE SLUGGISH FARM SECTOR IS GETTING THE  ATTENTION OF LAWMAKERS AS THEY START GATHERING DATA IN ADVANCE OF WRITING THE NEXT  FARM BILL. THE HOUSE AGRICULTURE COMMITTEE HEARD FROM  FIVE KEY AG ECONOMISTS. COMMITTEE CHAIR MIKE CONAWAY SAYS AS THE FARM  BILL PROCESS GETS UNDERWAY, THE LEAN ECONOMIC  REALITIES MUST BE FRONT AND CENTER.  RANKING HOUSE MEMBER COLLIN PETERSON OF  MINNESOTA SAYS THE SAFETY NET OF THE FARM BILL IS  IMPORTANT WHEN TIMES ARE BAD....LIKE NOW. <"IN MY PART OF THE WORLD, WE HAD SUCH  TREMENDOUS YIELDS, AND CROPS AND HARVEST  CONDITIONS, THAT IT OFFSET THE LOW PRICES. SO  WE'RE NOT SEEING THE KIND OF PRESSURE I EXPECTED  WE WOULD SEE AT THIS POINT. BUT IF THESE CROP  PRICES STAY WHERE THEY'RE AT AND WE GET AN  AVERAGE CROP OR BELOW AVERAGE CROP, WE GOT BIG PROBLEMS."> GROUPS LIKE AMERICAN FARM BUREAU SAY THE LOWER  COMMODITY PRICES PUTS MORE PRESSURE ON  LAWMAKERS TO GET A FARM BILL WRITTEN AND  PASSED. 

GROWING DEMAND FOR ORGANIC, NON GMO
CONSUMER DEMAND FOR ORGANIC AND NON-GMO  FOODS IS OUTPACING PRODUCTION IN THE U-S. THAT  LED TO A SHARP RISE IN ORGANIC GRAIN IMPORTS IN 2016. AND NOW COBANK SAYS FOOD MANUFACTUERS ARE EXPLORING NEW INCENTIVIES TO HELP U-S GROWERS  TO TRANSITION TO ORGANIC PRODUCTION.  THE REPORT SAYS IN ORDER FOR U-S FARMERS TO  SATISFY THE GROWING APPETITE, BETWEEN ONE AND  FIVE MILLION U-S ACRES WILL NEED TO BE  TRANSITIONED INTO ORGANIC PRODUCTION.  A VEGETBALE SHORTAGE IN TEH UNITED KINGDOM IS  SPURRING A GROWING HUNGER FOR U-S IMPORTS. 

UK VEGETABLE SHORTAGE
ACCORDING TO OUR PARTNERS AT TEH PACKER, A  WEATHER-INDUCED VEGETABLE SHORTAGE IN THE U-K  IS SPURRING DEMAND FROM U-S SUPPLIERS. THE PRODUCE IN HIGH DEMAND INCLUDES ICEBERG  LETTUCE, BROCCOLI, ZUCHINI AND EGGPLANT.  THE U-K IS ALSO SEEING A SHORTAGE OF BABY LEAF  SALADS, CELERY AND CUCUMBERS. FLOODING IN SPAIN AND SNOW AND COL ACROSS SOUTHERN EUROPE IS REALLY EATING INTO SUPPLY. OFFICIALS SAY THE HARDEST HIT CROPS ARE SEEING 25  TO 50 PERCENT DAMAGE. 

WEATHER
<AGRICULTURE'S NATIONAL FORECAST BROUGH TOT  YOU BY THE LIBERTY LINK SYSTEM, A SIMPLY BETTER  SOLUTION FROM BAYER>   THAT'S IT FOR NEWS...METEOROLOGIST MIKE  HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH A LONGER-RANGE LOOK  AT WEATHER.  THANKS TYNE THAT IT 'S STILL A PRETTY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS  THE COUNTRY. WE HAVE OUR ONE THAT DIP IN THE JET STREAM THERE IN  THE SOUTHWEST AND THAT 'S GOING TO BE A VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM  IS THAT COMES EASTWARD. WE LOOK AT THE RIDGE THAT 'S THE WARMTH AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND  AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE  COUNTRY YOU CAN SEE THAT STORM SYSTEM STILL LINGERING BY THE  MIDDLE OF THE WEEK OVER THE  GULF COAST REGION. THE NEXT BIG TROUGH IN STORM SYSTEM MOVE IN  AND OUT WEST AND THAT WILL BE BOWLING BALLING EASTWARD  AND IT LOOKS LIKE THAT'LL BE A BIG STORM SYSTEM BY LATE IN THE WEEK  OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY SAW AN ACTIVE WEATHER  PATTERN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS WEEK THAT WILL STORM SYSTEM WILL  CONTINUE FARTHER EAST FOR NEXT WEEK. AND SO MY THIRTY DAY OUTLOOK  FOR TEMPERATURES FROM THE WESTERN LAKES ALL THE WAY TO THE  NORTHWEST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES NEAR NORMAL FOR  CENTRAL AREAS PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT THIRTY DAYS IN EASTERN  OHIO VALLEY MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST AND ALSO MUCH OF THE  WEST EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ONLY SOUTH TEXAS INTO MEXICO EXPECTED TO BE BELOW TYNE. THANKS MIKE.

FARM JOURNAL REPORT
AS WE MENTIONED EARLIER IN THE SHOW, SOME AG  GROUPS ARE WORRIED THE TRADE TALKS COULD TURN  INTO A TRADE WAR. AND CONSIDERING NAFTA IS SUCH  A BIG BOOST TO COMMODITIES LIKE PORK AND BEEF,  GROUPS FEAR THAT MOMENTUM COULD WANE. IN THIS  FARM JOURNAL REPORT, BETSY JIBBEN LOOKS AT THE  BEEF MARKET AND WHAT THE INDUSTRY IS AIMING FOR  WITH TRADE RELATIONS. THE U.S. BEEF HERD IS EXPANDING AND THE INDUSTRY  IS WANTING EXPORT MARKET ACCESS TO GROW TOO.  <"WE HAVE A HUGE VALUE IN OUR EXPORTS. AS MUCH AS 300 DOLLARS  A HEAD,"> SHORTLY AFTER TAKING OFFICE, PRESIDENT DONALD  TRUMP WITHDREW THE U.S. FROM THE TRANS-PACIFIC- PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12 PACIFIC RIM  COUNTRIES - A BIG BLOW TO THE U.S. BEEF INDUSTRY.  <"WAS THE TPP DECISION A DISAPPOINTMENT FOR ANIMAL AGRICULTURE?  UNQUESTIONABLY IT WAS,"> <"YOU KNOW I VOTED FOR PRESIDENT TRUMP BUT HE WIPED THAT OUT  RIGHT IN FRONT OF US,"> JAPAN WAS INCLUDED IN THE DEAL - AND IS ONE OF THE  U.S. BEEF INDUSTRY'S BIGGEST BUYERS.  NOW INDUSTRY LEADERS ARE ASKING FOR SOME FORM  OF TRADE DEAL WITH THE COUNTRY - BECAUSE HIGH  TARIFFS  ARE A PROBLEM.  NCBA SAYS JAPAN'S 38-POINT-5 PERCENT TARIFF ON  FRESH AND FROZEN BEEF WOULD HAVE BEEN CUT TO 9  PERCENT WITH THE TPP.  <"IF IT'S A BI-LATERAL AGREEMENT, WE CAN SUPPORT THAT, WE JUST NEED  IT TO START SOONER THAN LATER BECAUSE EVERYDAY WE DON'T HAVE THE  ABILITY TO BRING DOWN THAT TARIFF AND TO COMPETE WITH THE  AUSTRALIANS, WE ARE LOSING 400-THOUSAND DOLLARS A DAY IN OUR  ACCESS TO THE JAPANESE MARKET. THOSE ARE NOT SUSTAINABLE  LOSSES,"> AUSTRALIA - ONE OF THE LARGEST COMPETITORS WITH  U.S. BEEF- SIGNED A BI-LATERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE  JAPAN AND PAY A MUCH LOWER TARIFF RATE - GIVING  U.S. PRODUCERS A DISADVANTAGE.  <"THE CONVERSATIONS WE'RE GOING TO HAVE WITH THE TRUMP  ADMINISTRATION IS NOT NECESSARILY CONVINCING THEM THAT TRADE IS  GOOD, BUT CONVIVNCING THEM THEY NEED TO WORK AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE TO GIVE US THE ACCESS WE NEED."> PRESIDENT TRUMP IS ALSO VOCAL ABOUT RE- NEGOTATING NAFTA - A TRADE AGREEMENT BETWEEN  -  MEXICO CANADA AND THE U.S. . <"ANYTHING THAT GOES AND TWEAKS NAFTA, WE HOPE WE WON'T HAVE  AN IMPACT ON THE LIVESTOCK ADN BEEF TRADE BECAUSE RIGHT NOW, WE  THINK THAT'S GOING EXTREMELY WELL,"> <"FIRST OF ALL, I HOPE WE DON'T TEAR APART NAFTA,"> <"IF YOU LOOK AT THE BEEF AND PORK COMPLEX, THAT CONSITUTES ABOUT  40 PERCNT OF OUR TOTAL EXPORTS FROM THE U.S.,"> SENG SAYS THE U.S. HAS TO BE CAREFUL NOT TO GIVE  UP A TRADE AGREEMENT WITHOUT SOMETHING TO FILL  THE VOID.  <"MY FATHER ONCE SAID YOU SHOULDN'T QUIT A JOB UNTIL YOU HAVE  ANOTHER ONE. I WOULD SAY WE SHOULDN'T QUITE A TRADE AGREEMENT  UNTIL WE HAVE ANOTHER ONE IN PLACE. A LOT OF WHAT'S BEEN   ACCOMPLISHED HAS BEEN PRODUCTIVE FOR U.S. AG AND WE CAN'T  THROW THAT OUT,"> BUT SOME ARE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT RE-OPENING NAFTA  SINCE THE PRESIDENT IS ENGAGING IN TRADE TALKS.  <"HE HAS STARTED ON EVERY OPPORTUNITY HE'S NOT ANTI-TRADE, HE  WAS ANTI-THOSE AGREEMENTS AND PRO-TRADE. LET'S GIVE HIM THE  BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT,"> PRESIDENT TRUMP IS ALSO OUTSPOKEN ABOUT ADDING  MORE BI-LATERAL TRADE AGREEMENTS. THE U.S. HAS  THOSE AGREEMENTS TO SOME COUNTRIES ALREADY IN  PLACE.  <"IF IT TAKES A BI-LATERAL AGREEMENT, WELL, THAT WOULD BE FINE, IF  THAT'S AN EXPANDED MULTI-LATERAL AGREEMENT- WELL, WE'LL BE ENGAGED IN THAT AS WELL,"> REPORTING FOR U.S. FARM REPORT, I'M BETSY JIBBEN.  THANKS BETSY.  ONE OF THOSE POTENTIAL BI-LATERAL DEALS MAY BE  WITH THE U-K. PRESIDENT TRUMP MET WITH PRIME  MINISTER THERESA MAY IN JANUARY.  NCBA SAYS EVEN THOUGH THE UK IS A SMALLER  MARKET VOLUME WISE, THEY'RE OPEN TO THE  OPPORTUNITY.  <U.S. FARM REPORT BROUGHT TO YOU BY CASE IH.  RETHINK HOW PRODUCUTIVE YOU CAN BE WITH  STEIGER QUADTRAC AND MAGNUM ROWTRAC  TRACTORS FROM CASE IH>

CUSTOMER SUPPORT
WELCOME BACK. WELL, CRP SEEMS TO BE A MORE ATTRACTIVE OPTION  FOR SOME PRODUCERS AND LAND OWNERS THIS YEAR. AND THAT'S THE TOPIC OF THIS WEEK'S CUSTOMER  SUPPORT.  NELLIE NEAL HAS A DECISION TO MAKE:  "I AM A FARM "OWNER".  I AM CURRENTLY CASH RENTING MY LAND.  I  CAN PUT THE ACREAGES IN CRP FOR 100 DOLLARS AN ACRE MORE THAN I GET ON CASH RENT.  MY CONCERN IS THAT I HAVE TO SIGN UP FOR 10  YEARS.  A LOT OF THINGS CAN CHANGE IN 10 YEARS. DO YOU HAVE ANY  THOUGHTS I SHOULD CONSIDER?" NELLIE, THANKS FOR YOUR QUESTION, AND I URGE YOU TO CHECK WITH YOUR LOCAL FARM SERVICE AGENCY TO MAKE SURE ABOUT IMPORTANT  DETAILS. THIS IS NOT AN EASY DECISION FOR LANDOWNERS AND FARMERS  ALIKE. FARMERS LINE UP ON BOTH SIDES OF THE CONSERVATION  RESERVE PROGRAM, WITH SOME WANTING MORE ACRES ENROLLED TO  LOWER CROP SURPLUSES AND SOME ARGUING IT LIMITS OPPORTUNITY FOR  FARMERS OR PRESENTS UNFAIR COMPETITION. THAT SAID, A MARKET DIFFERENCE OF $100 DOLLARS IS A BIG DEAL.  WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE RENTS COULD RECOVER TO MATCH OR EXCEED THE  CRP BID, IT WOULD TAKE SOME TIME TO OFFSET THAT LARGE OF A  DIFFERENCE, SO THE ECONOMICS CERTAINLY SUGGEST ENROLLING. THE GREATER QUESTION, IN MY OPINION, IS WHAT IS BEST FOR THE LAND.  I AM GUESSING THAT THIS LARGE DIFFERENTIAL IMPLIES YOUR LAND IS MARGINALLY SUITABLE FOR CROP PRODUCTION AND THE CONSERVATION  BENEFITS ARE CONSIDERABLE, SO GOOD STEWARDSHIP LEANS TOWARD  ENROLLING. THE TEN-YEAR DURATION CAN BE SEEN AS CONFINING, BUT IT ALSO LOCKS  IN A KNOWN RETURN. IF THAT RENTAL RATE MEETS YOUR FINANCIAL NEEDS,  KEEP IN MIND THERE AREN'T MANY SURE THINGS LIKE THAT IN AG THESE DAYS. SOME OWNERS WORRY ABOUT PROBLEMS IF THEY SHOULD SELL OR  EVEN DIE DURING THE CONTRACT, BUT IT IS ESSENTIALLY A CASH RENT  CONTRACT THAT WOULD STAY WITH THE ACRES SHOULD OWNERSHIP  CHANGE. THERE ARE ALSO RULES THAT ALLOW TRANSITIONING CRP ACRES  TO BEGINNING FARMERS. THINK OF THE LAND AND THINK OF YOUR WORRY LOAD, AND MAKE THE  BEST DECISION YOU CAN. IF YOU DO THAT, I THINK YOU'LL BE SATISFIED  WITH THE RESULT.

TEASE
THANKS, JOHN. WHEN WE COME BACK, WE'RE ON THE ROAD WITH  MACHINERY PETE WHERE SPRAYERS ARE CATCHING HIS  EYE. SO, DON'T GO ANWYHERE.  <HERE'S YOUR CHANCE TO WIN A DREAM SPORT TRIP,  PLUS A 10,000 DONATION FOR A COMMUNC

ON THE ROAD WITH MACHINERY PETE
<ON THE ROAD WITH MACHINERY PETE BROUGHT TO  YOU BY DEERE... NOTHING RUNS LIKE A DEERE> IT'S BEEN A MILD WINTER, AND THAT MEANS FARMERS  IN NEBRASKA ARE ALREADY IN THE FIELD SPRAYING  AND DOING OTHER FIELD PREP. BUT IT'S INTEREST IN  SPRAYERS IN NOT ONLY NEBRASKA, BUT ALL ACROSS  THE COUNTRY, THAT'S BRINGING MOMENTUM IN THE  NEW YEAR. AND THIS WEEK, WE'RE ON THE ROAD WITH MACHIERY  PETE TO LANDMARK IMPLEMENT IN MINDEN, NEBRASKA.  <PUT THAT ON STRAIGHT.> FOR NEBRASKA FARMER COLIN SCHWENKA, NO YEAR  OF FARMING  IS THE SAME. BUT IT'S ALWAYSA FAMILY  AFFAIR.   <WE'VE GOT SOME CORN ON CORN. WE DO SOYBEANS AND SEED CORN,  > CROP MIXES VARY FROM FARM TO FARM, BUT THESE  FARMERS PREFER TO STICK TO THE STAPLE CROPS.  AND WE ARE STICKING WITH OUR REGULAR ROTATIONW HICH IS A MIXTURE  OF WHEAT, CORN AND SOYBEANS> FOR STONES, GOING FROM CONVENTIONAL TILL TO NO  TILL WAS THE MOST MONUMENTAL CHANGE HE'S SEEN  DURING HIS FARMING CAREER.  <WE'VE SEEN IMPROVEMENTS IN SOIL TEXTURE AND SOIL QUALITY, WE'VE  REDUCED EROSION> HE SAYS IT'S ALSO MEANT INCREASED YIELDS... EVEN  WHEN FARMING WITH LITTLE RAIN.  ALWAYS TOO DRY , I SAW THAT WITH TOUNGUE AND CHEAK. BUT I SPENT  75 PERCEN TOF MY FARMING CAREER PRAYING FOR RAIN, SO I'M GOING TO  CONTINUE TO SAY THAT> LAST YEAR WAS A GOOD YEAR, WITH FARMERS LIKE  SCHWENKA SEEING HIS BEST SOYBEAN YIELDS EVER.  AND THAT MOMENTUM IS CARRYING OVER INTO  INTEREST IN BUYING SPRAYERS.  <THIS YEAR IT JUST BLEW UP. WE'RE ACTUALLY VERY LOW ON USED  SPRAYERS.  AND PROBABLY THE BIGGEST SURPRISE WE'VE HAD IS BIG  TANK SPAYERS. THEY'VE TYPICALLY BEEN VERY HARD TO MOVE AT TIMES,  AND WE'RE CLEANED UP ON BIG SPRYAERS> LORENZEN SASY THE DEMAND AND PRICE HAVE FINALLY  INTERSECTED, EVEN CREATING NEW INTEREST.  <SO WE'RE SEEING SOME FIRST TIME SPRAYER BUYERS ACTUALLY BUY THE  BIGGER SPRAYERS> SCHWENKA MADE THE SWITCH TWO YEARS AGO,  SHIFTING AWAY FROM SELF PROPELLED SPAYERS.  < YOU CAN PUT HTE DRY BOX ON. SO WE STARTED PUTTING OUR OWN DRY  FERTILIZER ON AND CAN DO A LITTLE BIT OF THAT AND SAVE SOME MONEY  BY DOING IT OURSELVES.> <KEEPING ALL YOUR REPORTS AND EVERTYING YOU NEED TO DO TO KEEP  YOUR BOOKWORK IN LINE ON WHAT WAS APPLIED AND WHEN> FROM FARMERS TO CUSTOM APPLICATORS, INTEREST IN LARGER SPRAYERS IN GAINING PACE.  <USED TO BE A 6 MONTH APPLICATION WINDOW FOR HTE MOST PART,  ANYMORE, YOU LOOK AT IT BEING A 10 TO 11 MONTH PERIOD> AND WITH THE FIERCE WIN THAT PUSHES ACROSS  NEBRASKA, THERE'S ALSO STRICT RESTRICTIONS ON  WHEN APPLICATORS CAN SPRAY.  <AND WE'RE GOING TO SEE MROE OF THAT WITH THE NEW 24D AND  DICAMBA THAT ARE NEW THIS YEAR, THERE ARE CERTAIN LABEL  RESTRICTIOSN, ESPEICALLY AROUND WIND THAT WILL HAVE TO BE  FOLLOWED> IT'S STRONG SPRAYER PRICES CATCHING THE EYE OF  MACHINERY PETE.  <, LARGE HORSPOWER TRACTORS WE'VE SEEN SOME REALLY STRONG  PRICING, SPRAYERS, WHICH WE'RE TALKING ABOUT HERE, WE'VE SEEN  SOME SURPINGLY STRONG PRICES TEHRE> BUT IT'S MORE THAN JUST SPRAYERS.  I WOULD SAY THE BIGGEST SURPRISE FOR US IN USED EQUIPMENT  WOULD BE THE ACTIVITY WE'VE HAD SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR. I  THINK WE'VE HAD MORE THAN MOST OF US EXPECTED IN JUST A LITTLE BIT  OF EVERYTHING, REALLY. SO A GOOD MIX? YEAH, A  GOOD MIX> MACHINERY PETE SAYS THE STRONG PRICES ON  PLANTERS IS SOMETHING GROWERS SHOULD WATCH.  <THE PRICING WE SAW AT THE END OF 2016 WAS VERY STRONG ON THE  LATE MODEL PLANTERS, SO I GUESS WHAT WE SEE IN JANUARY IS SORT OF  HELD, AND NORMALLY YOU THINK IT WOULD GET A LITTLE HIGHER RIGHT  BEFORE PLANTING, BUT SOMESTIMES IT WORKS THE OPPOSITE WAY> FOR AREA FARMERS, TECHNOLOGY IS DRIVING  PURCHASING DECISIONS RIGHT NOW.   <WE LIKE THE TECHNOLOGY THAT WORKS AND WE APPRECIATE THE  FACTORY INSTALLED TECHNOLOGY THAT HELPS WITH OUR PRECISION,  GUIDANCE,> FROM MORE PRECISE FARMING DECISIONS TO BETTER  DATA.. IT'S CHANGING THE GAME OF FARMING.  <ALL THE YIELD DATA, AND HOW FAST AND ACCURATE HTE MOISTURE WE  CAN GET ON THEM. EVERYTHING IS RIGHT HTERE AND NOW THAT YOU CAN  USE THE WIFI YOU SEND IT, YOU GO HOME AT NIGHT AND IT'S ALL RIGHT  THERE AND READY FOR YOU. > <THE BIGGEST IMPACT I SEE COMIGN IS THE EVOLUTION OF DATA. WE'VE  BEEN COLLECTING DATA SINC EHTE LATE 90S. FOR THE MOST PART, THAT  DATA HAS SET IN A NOTE BOOK IN THEIR OFFICE . NOW WE'RE GETTIGN THE  POINT WHERE WE UTILIZE THAT DATA AND MAKE BETTER DECISIONS AND  TRY TO DEVEOP MORE PWERFUL INFORMATION SO THEY CAN GET HTE MOST  OUT OF EVERY ACRE ON THAT FARM> FARMERS MAY BE JUST STARTING TO SCRATCH THE  SURFACE ON DATA, BUT FARMING IS STILL FULL OF  UNKNOWNS.  <I THINK 2017 WILL BE A LOT LIKE 2016. I THINK THEY WILL BE SOME  CHALLENGES> <RIGHT IN THIS AREA WE HAD A PRETTY DRY SUMMER, WE HAD A REAL  WET SPRING, AND THEN IT'S BEEN PRETTY DRY. WE HAD SOME ICE AND  PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE ABOUT A MONTH AGO, BUT WE'LL DEFINITELY  NEED SOME RAIN THIS SPRING> AND AS THE SUN RISES ON A NEW DAY, IT REVIVES  HOPE... HOPE OF MORE THAN JUST RAIN.... THESE  FARMERS ARE STRIVING FOR AN EVEN BETTER YEAR SO  THEIR LEGACY CAN LIVE ON.  NEXT MONTH, WE'LL VISIT GREENWOOD, MISSISSIPPI TO  SEE HOW EQUIPMENT TRENDS ARE PLAYING OUT THERE  IN THE NEW YEAR.

TEASE
WHEN WE COME BACK, MACHINERY PETE REJOINS US  FOR TRACTOR TALES WITH A CLASSIC 42 H FROM THE  LONE STAR STATE.

TRACTOR TALES
TRACTOR TALES BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE MOST  TRUSTED NAME IN FARM EQUIPMENT, MACHINERY  PETE!. WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES FOLKS!  WE HAVE A CLASSIC 42 H  FROM TEXAS TO SHARE WITH YOU TODAY.   THIS JOHN DEERE H HAS MANY YEARS OF COTTON WORK ON ITS  RESUME AND IT'S BEEN A FAMILY TRACTOR SINCE THE BEGINNING.   TODAY IT MAY BE RETIRED, BUT AT SPEEDS OF JUST UNDER 8 MILES AN  HOUR, IT STILL GETS AROUND PRETTY GOOD.   WELL IT WAS MY DAD'S.  AND I THOUGHT I'D FIX IT UP.  IT  WAS IN PRETTY BAD SHAPE WHEN I GOT IT.  BUT IT  COME OUT PRETTY NICE.  I WANTED IT BECAUSE IT WAS  HIS.  AND I JUST WANT TO KEEP IT IN THE FAMILY.   THAT'S THE REASON I RESTORED IT.  HOOD WAS  DENTED UP ALL THE WAY DOWN.  AND MATHEW  KNOCKED ALL THE DENTS OUT OF IT.  AND EVERYTHING  AND PAINTED IT.  AND I DID THE TRACTOR AND  OVERHAULED MOTOR IT WAS STUCK, A LOT OF WORK IN  IT.  WE FARMED ABOUT 150 ACRES OF COTTON AND  THAT'S WHAT HE PLOWED THE COTTON WITH WAS THIS  RIGHT HERE.  BED IT AND ALL.  I PLANTED.  DID YOU  HELP HIM WITH THAT?  YEAH I DID WHEN I WAS  GROWING UP IN HIGH SCHOOL.  I THOUGHT IT WAS  WORK THEN, BUT NOW IT'S ALL PLEASURE.  JUST SHOW  IT AND SHOWS.  WHAT WE DO WHEN WE FIND THE  SHOWS.  LOT OF CHRISTMAS PARADES AND STUFF LIKE  THAT.  COME OUT PRETTY GOOD.  AND BEING IN THE  FAMILY THAT LONG AND THAT MADE A LOT OF  DIFFERENCE.

COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE
TODAY'S COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE GOES TO THE  TRINITY LUTHERAN CHURCH IN PAOLA, KANSAS.  FOUNDED IN 1868, IT'S ONE OF THE OLDEST LUTHERN  CONGREGATIONS IN THE STATE OF KANSAS.  OUR THANKS TO BARRET YOUNG FOR SHARING THEIR  STORY.     AS ALWAYS WE WANT TO LEARN ABOUT YOUR HOME  CHURCH AS WELL... SALUTES CAN BE SENT TO THE  ADDRESS ON THE SCREEN.  STAY WITH US - FROM THE  FARM PHOTOS ARE NEXT.

FROM THE FARM
MIKE BERDO RECEIVED A SPECIAL VALENTINE'S DAY  GIFT THIS WEEK... A NEW CALF! HE SAYS IT MARKED THE  BEGINNING OF CALVING SEASON AND THE WEATHER  WAS GREAT... WHICH MEANT FOR THE PERFECT DAY. ALLEN STARTED PLANTING IN TEXAS ON FEBRUARY 9.  HE SAYS THAT'S THE EARLIEST HE'S EVER PLANTED.  RAIN WAS ON THE WAY, SO HE DIDN'T PLANT A LOT OF  ACRES YET. BUT IT'S HARD TO BELEIVE THAT THIS  YEAR'S PLANTING IS ALREADY UNDERWAY.  IT 'S HARD TO BELIEVE BUT WE'VE HAD SUCH MILD TEMPERATURES MIGHT MEAN IT 'S ALMOST SCARY HOW WARM IT 'S BEEN IN SOME PLACE  IT'S ALL THE SAME THING, THE BIG STREAM OF MAJOR STORMS COMING INTO THE WEST COAST IS KEEP FLOODING THE WHOLE COUNTRY WITH PACIFIC AIR. SO EVERYTIME THE COLD AIR COMES OUT OF THE ARCTIC YOU GET SWEPT AWAY NOW BUT THERE WEREN'T A LOT OF FORECASTS THAT POINTED TO A MILD WINTER 'S A WISE AND THROWING EVERYONE OFF. THERE WERE SOME THAT POINTED TOWARD A MILD WINTER BUT THEY DIDN'T POINT TOWARD A WET WEST HIT THE HOSPITAL THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO IS WHAT 'S I THINK AMAZED EVERYBODY IS IS HOW THAT PATTERN HAS PERSISTED. REALLY MOST OF THE WINTER AND HAS FOR FARMERS WORRIEDAT THIS IN AND I WOULD BE WORRIED JUST BECAUSE OF THAT . IF YOU GET ONE SHOT OF THE REAL COLD AIR AFTER THINGS HAVE ALREADY BUDDED OUT. THAT COULD BE BAD. ALL RIGHT. WELL YOU HAVE ANY PICTURES OR VIDEOS YOU WANNA SEND YOU TO DO THAT TO THE ADDRESS ON THE SCREEN

CLOSE
FOR ALL OF US THAT U S FARM REPORT THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR WATCHING BE SURE TO JOIN US AGAIN RIGHT HERE NEXT WEEK AS WE WORK TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND EVERYONE

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