USFR Weekly Recap -March 5-6, 2016

November 29, 2014 03:30 AM
 

TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
MARCH 5-6, 2016


OPENING HEADLINES:
FROM THE STUDIOS OF FARM JOURNAL BROADCAST,  THIS IS U.S. FARM REPORT.> WELCOME TO THIS SPECIAL EDITION OF U.S. FARM  REPORT. FROM THE 2016 COMMODITY  CLASSIC IN NEW ORLEANS, OR AS THE LOCALS CALL IT "N'AWLINS". WE HAVE OUR REGULAR CAST OF  CHARACTERS WILL JOINING US THIS WEEK,  FOR A JAM-PACKED 60 MINUTES.   THE DREARY OUTLOOK FOR COMMODITY PRICES IS ON  THE MINDS OF MANY AT COMMODITY CLASSIC. THIS  WEEK'S ANALYSTS WEIGH IN ON THE BULLS VERSUS  THE BEARS. AND A SERIOUS QUESTION ON THE MINDS OF SOME  WITH DOMESTIC ETHANOL DEMAND... <HAVE WE HIT A PLATEAU- THE ANSWER IS CERTAINLY NOT> OUR FARM JOURNAL REPORT EXPLORES WHERE EACH  ASSOCIATION THINKS THEY CAN DRUM UP A MORE  PROMISING DEMAND PICTURE.  AND LEAVE A LEGACY, COMBINING A PASSION FOR GROWING BETTER YIELDS WHILE CONSERVING WATER.<"ON THIS SYSTEM IS TIED TO 17 PIVOTS. THIS IS THE MOST ADVANCED PUMP-SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHEAST AND MOST  EFFICIENT,">
COMMODITY PRICES OUTLOOK:
 NOW FOR THE MARKET RELATED NEWS, WHILE WE ARE  STILL WAITING ON THE OFFICIAL NUMBERS FROM USDA, IT  LOOKS LIKE THIS YEAR'S CROP INSURANCE PRICE WILL  BE BELOW THE COST OF PRODUCTION FOR MANY. ACCORDING TO AGWEB DOT COM, BASED ON FUTURES  PRICES FOR DECEMBER CORN, NOVEMBER SOYBEANS  AND SEPTEMBER HARD RED SPRING WHEAT DURING  FEBRUARY, THE CROP INSURANCE PRICES WILL BE $3.86  FOR CORN, $8.85 FOR SOYBEANS AND $5.13 FOR WHEAT.    THE AG DEPARTMENT IS OUT WITH ITS MONTHLY LOOK  AT WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS.
CROP CONDITION:
 59-PERCENT OF THE  KANSAS CROP IS RATED GOOD TO EXCELLENT. THAT'S A  FOUR POINT IMROVEMENT FROM LAST MONTH. MEANWHILE, CONDITIONS DECLINED IN THE SOUTHERN  PLAINS. 68-PERCENT OF THE OKLAHOMA CROP IS RATED GOOD  TO EXCELLENT, DOWN FROM 74-PERCENT. TEXAS 40-PERCENT OF THAT CROP IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT. THAT'S A NINE POINT DROP FROM FEBRUARY FIRST.
U.S. COTTON INDUSTRY MAY BE HELPED BY CHINESE DEMAND:
THERE'S HOPE FOR COTTON PRICES, AND IT COMES IN  THE FORM OF CHINESE DEMAND. CHINA IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IMPORTS OF COTTON  FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVEN YEARS. CHINA SAYS IT WILL INCREASE ITS BUYS BY 1  MILLION BALES, TO 33 MILLION. THAT'S STILL A DISTANT CRY FROM THE 2009 TO 2010  MARKETING YEAR WHEN IT PURCHSED 50 MILLION BALES.
NO MORE BRAZILIAN TARIFF:
 A POSSIBLE TARIFF PLACED ON BRAZILLIAN CORN AND  SOYBEANS IS NOW OFF THE TABLE. A STATE GOVERNOR IN CENTRAL BRAZIL SAYS HE  WON'T  PURSUE IMPOSING TAXES ON GRAIN EXPORTS,  AFTERING MEETING WITH AGRICULTURAL LOBBYIESTS. ANALYSTS SAY THE MOVE WILL PROMPT OTHER STATE  GOVERNORS TO DO THE SAME. CURRENTLY, BRAZILLIAN STATES OF TARIFFS ON GOOD  TO OTHER PARTS OF THE COUNTRY, AND THOSE TAXES  CAN RANGE ANHYWHERE FROM 9 TO 11 PERCENT. BUT  GRAIN SHIPMENTS TO PORTS FOR INTERNATIONAL  EXPORT ARE EXEMPTED. 
SOUTH AFRICA BUYS AMERICAN CHICKEN FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 17 YEARS:
MEANWHILE, FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 17 YEARS, SOUTH  AFRICA IS RECEIVING SHIPMENTS OF U-S POULTRY. THE USA POULTRY AND EGG EXPORT COUNCIL SAYS  FIVE CONTAINERS OF U-S BONE-IN CHICKEN LEG  QUARTERS AND DRUM STICKS ARRIVED IN SOUTH  AFRICA IN FEBRUARY. SHIPMENTS WERE BANNED IN 2000 AFTER SOUTH AFRCIA  IMPOSTED PROHIBITIVE ANTI DUMPING DUTIES ON U-S  BONE-IN CHICKEN, WHICH CLOSED THE DOOR ON ALL U- S POULTRY PRODUCTS. BUT LAST YEAR, THE ADMINISTRATION NEGOTIATED  OPENING THOSE MARKETS BACK UP.   
NATIONAL WEATHER:
 THAT'S IT FOR THE HEADLINES...NOW ITS TIME TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE WEATHER WITH METEOROLOGIST MIKE  HOFFMAN.  MIKE, I'M NOT  GOING TO LIE, THIS WARMER WEATHER  IS  A NICE CHANGE FROM SNOWY SOUTH BEND, INDIANA. 
YEAH, TYNE. WE HAVE HAD A FAIR AMOUNT OF SNOW SINCE YOU HAVE BEEN GONE, SO HOPEFULLY YOU HAVE ENJOYED THAT WARM WEATHER. NOW, JUST SO YOU KNOW THE REST OF THE MIDWEST GOING TO BE WARMING UP AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS WEEK. WE WILL GET TO THAT FORECAST COMING UP. WE WILL BE BACK IN OUR NEXT HALF HOUR WITH A LONGER RANGE FORECAST.
TEASE:
NEXT UP WE HAVE OUR MARKETING ROUNDATBLE FROM RIGHT HERE AT THE 2016 COMMODITY CLASSIC . MARK GOLD, CHIP FLORY, AND TED SEEIFERD JOIN ME NEXT.
ROUNDTABLE 1:
 WELCOME BACK TO THE 2016 COMMODITY CLASSIC. HERE WITH A GREAT MARKING ROUND TABLE THIS WEEK. WE'RE GOING TO JUMP RIGHT INTO THINGS.  MARK GOLD, I'M GOING TO START WITH YOU.
GRAIN:
WHAT DOES HISTORY TELL US ABOUT BEING ABLE TO MARKET OUR GRAIN AT LEAST ONCE THIS YEAR ABOVE THE COST OF PRODUCTION?  WELL, SINCE 1973 THE AMERICAN FARMER'S ALWAYS HAD ONE OPPORTUNITY, AND THIS YEAR, I DON'T THINK WILL BE ANY DIFFERENT.
OPTIMISM:
SOME OF THESE WEATHER FORECASTS AND SOME OF THESE PEOPLE PREDICTING $6 CORN, MAY BE A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC, WE'LL SEE, BUT YOU'RE GOING TO GET THAT OPPORTUNITY. IN ALL THE DOOM AND GLOOM THAT YOU HEAR IN AGRICULTURE, I THINK YOU GOT TO TAKE IT WITH A GRAIN OF SALT.
SOME OF THE GUYS THAT WERE SAYING THREE YEARS AGO WE'RE AT A NEW PARADIGM IN AMERICAN AGRICULTURE AND PRICES ARE NEVER GOING LOWER, THESE ARE THE SAME GUYS NOW THAT ARE TELLING YOU THAT PRICES ARE NEVER GOING UP.
I GUESS THEY DON'T LEARN THAT MARKETS GO UP AND DOWN.
WEATHER:
TED, MARK MENTIONED WEATHER, BUT HOW BIG OF A WEATHER EVENT DOES IT NEED TO BE TO REALLY GET A NICE RALLY?
 WELL, YOU KNOW, JUST THE THOUGHT OF A WEATHER SCARE COULD GIVE US A NICE, LITTLE RALLY.
YOU LOOK AT THE FUNDS AT RECORD SHORT POSITIONS CARRYING A VERY BIG, BIG PERCENTAGE OF THE OPEN INTEREST.
CHINA SITS ON CORN STOCKS:
THERE ARE A LOT OF OTHER FACTORS INVOLVED, SUCH AS CHINA SITTING ON 30 PERCENT OF THE WORLD'S CORN STOCKS.
IF WE WERE TO HAVE AN ISSUE HERE AND PRICES WERE TO GET BETTER, CHINA LIKELY WOULD BE PUTTING A LOT OF THAT CORN ON THE MARKET.
NOT FOR US NECESSARILY, BUT SOME OF OUR BUSINESS MIGHT GET TAKEN AWAY FROM THAT.
SO IT MIGHT TAKE AWAY, SO LOOK AT THOSE OPPORTUNITIES.
USE THEM.
“DEMAND DISCOVERY PERIOD”:
SOYBEANS BEHIND THAT AND THEN WHEAT DOWN THE LIST ON VULNERABILITY TO A SCARE RALLY, BUT THE LONGER WE    I LIKE TO CALL THIS PERIOD OF LOW PRICES THE DEMAND DISCOVERY PERIOD.
IT'S JUST A NICE WAY OF SAYING THAT PRICES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME ADDITIONAL DEMANDS START TO COME IN HERE, BUT RIGHT NOW TO IMPACT THE OLD CROP MARKET IT'S GOING TO HAVE TO BE A BURST OF DEMAND, AND I DON'T SEE THAT HAPPENING RIGHT NOW.
END USERS SIDE:
YOU KNOW, ON THE END USERS, ON THE END USERS SIDE GUYS, I THINK, HAVE GONE FROM A 30 DAY COVERAGE TO A 30 TO 45 DAY COVERAGE, THEN TO A 45 60 AND EVEN STRETCHING OUT TO 75 DAYS NOW.
 YOU KNOW, MARK, WE HEAR THE SAYING, LOW PRICES CURES LOW PRICES, BUT IT HASN'T AT THIS POINT.
WE HAVEN'T GENERATED THE TYPE OF DEMAND THAT WE WANTED TO.
STRONG DOLLAR CREATES MARKET HEADWINDS FOR U.S. AG:
>> WELL, THE DOLLAR'S BEEN SO STRONG, WHICH IS ONE OF THE BIG ISSUES OUT THERE, BUT THE FACT OF THE MATTER IS WHAT I THINK    YOU KNOW, WE START GETTING CAUGHT UP IN SOME OF THESE WEATHER SCARES AND THESE GUYS MAKING THESE BOLD PREDICTIONS ABOUT WHERE PRICES ARE GOING, BUT I DON'T THINK THE AMERICAN FARMER CAN FORGET THAT THESE GENETICS TODAY ARE SO GOOD THAT EVEN WITH THE WEATHER SCARE, AND LET'S HOPE WE GET THAT, YOU NEED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF IT.
THE TREND LINE YIELD:
LAST YEAR THESE GUYS WERE SAYING ON JUNE 1ST BECAUSE WE WERE GETTING IN THE CORN CROP AFTER JUNE 1ST YOU COULDN'T HAVE TRENDLINE YIELD. WELL, THEY WERE RIGHT. WE HAD ABOVE TRENDLINE YIELD AND YOU GOT IN AFTER JUNE 1ST.SO THE FACT OF THE MATTER IS IF WE GET A WEATHER SCARE BECAUSE OF HEAT, YOU'VE GOT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF IT LONG BEFORE WE FIND OUT THAT MAYBE THE HEAT DIDN'T DO AS MUCH DAMAGE AS WE THOUGHT.
TEASE:
WELL, WE'RE JUST GETTING STARTED WITH THIS CONVERSATION.
WE'RE GOING TO TALK WHEAT, SORGHUM, ETHANOL WHEN WE COME BACK, SO DON'T GO ANYWHERE.
U.S. FARM REPORT, AT THE 2016 COMMODITY CLASSIC IS BROUGHT TO YOU BY CREDENZ FROM BAYER, MADE WITH SMART GENETICS...AND BY CASE IH - RETHINK PRODUCTIVITY WITH THE NEW CASE IH 2000 SERIES EARLY-RISER PLANTER.
ROUNDTABLE 2:
 WELCOME BACK TO U.S. FARM REPORT.  ALL RIGHT.
WE LOOK AT THIS WHEAT PICTURE. RECORD SHORTS, WE SAW A RALLY ON THURSDAY.WHAT'S GOING ON IN THIS WHEAT MARKET RIGHT NOW?  YOU KNOW, NUMBER ONE, COUPLE OF THINGS. IT'S GETTING DRY DOWN IN THE SOUTHWEST. ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS.
WEATHER:
I'M NOT GOING TO GET TOO WORKED UP ABOUT ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS RIGHT NOW. THERE'S STILL AN OPPORTUNITY. YOU LOOK AT THE LONGER TERM FORECAST WE'RE SUPPOSED TO SEE A WETTER PATTERN FOR HARD RED WINTER WHEAT COUNTRY. BUT THAT CROP IS ALSO VERY FAR ADVANCED.
SORGHUM SALES:
 MARK, WHEN WE LOOK AT SORGHUM, WE LOOK AT SALES.
SALES ARE CURRENTLY UP, BUT WHEN WE LOOK AT OUTSTANDING SALES WE'RE QUITE A BIT LOWER.
SO HOW DOES CHANGES OVER IN CHINA IN THEIR POLICY, HOW WILL THAT IMPACT OUR BOOMING SORGHUM EXPORTS THAT WE'VE SEEN?
WELL, I THINK WHETHER IT'S SORGHUM OR CORN OR BEANS, CHINA IS THE PLAYER, AND I'VE ALWAYS SAID THAT THE CHINESE OVER 5,000 YEARS OF WORLD HISTORY HAVE CERTAINLY LEARNED THAT THE EASIEST WAY TO FORCE A REGIME CHANGE IS LET THE PEOPLE GO HUNGRY.
BRAZIL—REAL GOES UP:
 TED, WHEN WE LOOK AT BRAZIL, WE SAW THE REAL HAD A NICE LITTLE BUMP.
WHAT'S GOING ON? YEAH, OVERNIGHT. GOOD NEWS OVERNIGHT, AND YOU HAD BEANS UP 8 CENTS OR SO IN THE OVERNIGHT. YOU SAW THE BRAZILIAN REAL UP 2.7% HERE TODAY, AND THAT'S BASED ON A COMBINATION OF THINGS.
ONE, THE FORMER PRESIDENT GOT RAIDED ON    RAIDED BY THE BRAZILIAN FBI BASICALLY ON FRAUD IMPLICATIONS.
ETHANOL DEMAND:
 WE DON'T HAVE MUCH TIME, BUT WHEN WE LOOK AT ETHANOL, DO YOU THINK WE'VE HIT A PLATEAU IN THE U.S. FOR DOMESTIC ETHANOL DEMAND, MARK?
 I DON'T KNOW.IT'S REALLY KIND OF A BOTTOM IN THIS MARKET, AND I THINK THAT    MAKE NO MISTAKE ABOUT IT. WE'VE HAD A $10 RALLY ON CRUDE. THAT'S A 30% INCREASE SINCE OFF THE LOWS IN A WEEK OFF OF $25 LOWS.
COMMODITY CLASSICS CLOSING THOUGHTS:
 WELCOME BACK TO 2016 COMMODITY CLASSIC, MARKETS NOW, CLOSING THOUGHTS. MARK GOLD, START WITH YOU.  I STILL BELIEVE THERE'S A LOT OF RISK IN THESE MARKETS, BUT I THINK IT'S A SHORT TERM RISK, AND I THINK THE SHORT AND DATED OPTIONS CAN BE VERY HELPFUL TO YOU FOLKS IF YOU COME OUT AND BUY JULY SHORT DATED PUTS ON CORN AND ON SOYBEANS, YOU'RE GOING TO SPEND 10 CENTS ON CORN, 20 CENTS ON BEANS.
KEEP AN EYE ON END USERS:
I THINK WE NEED TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON WHAT THE END USERS ARE DOING. HOG GUYS, CATTLE GUYS, POULTRY GUYS, AND WATCH THAT EXPORT MARKET. I THINK WE COULD SEE A LITTLE BIT MORE EXPORT DEMAND COME IN. DOLLAR'S GOING TO BE AN ISSUE FOR US, BUT WE'RE IN THAT DEMAND DISCOVERY PERIOD, AND I THINK WE'RE ABOUT TO DISCOVER QUITE A BIT OF IT.
TEASE:
JOHN PHIPPS JOINS ME FROM RIGHT IN NEW ORLEANS WHEN WE COME BACK.
JOHN’S COMMENTARY:
WELCOME BACK. WE'RE HERE FROM THE 2016 COMMODITY CLASSIC.  AND JOHN, YOU GOT OFF THE FARM TO JOIN US THIS WEEK.  YEA, IT'S BEAUTIFUFL DOWN HERE IN NEW ORLEANS, AND EVERYTIME YOU GO BACK FROM A MEETING, THERE'S ONE THING PEOPLE WANT TO KNOW. WHEN PEOPLE FIND OUT YOU’VE BEEN TO A BIG MEETING LIKE THE COMMODITY CLASSIC, ONE OF THE MOST FREQUENT QUESTIONS IS, “WHAT WAS THE MOOD?” I’VE ALWAYS THOUGHT THIS TO BE A RATHER SILLY THING TO WORRY ABOUT, BUT UNSUPRISINGLY TO MANY OF YOU, I MAY BE WRONG.
MOODS CAN INFLUENCE THE INFORMATION THAT WE PROCESS:
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE EVIDENCE FROM BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS THAT “THE MOOD” MATTERS A LOT MORE THAT MIGHT THINK. WHAT WE HEAR AND SEE, ESPCIALLY IN THE VOICES AND FACES OF OTHERS CHANGES HOW WE VIEW THE FUTURE AND MAKE DECISIONS. MOST IMPORTANTLY, IT CAN CREATE SUBTLE FILTERS THAT UNCONSCIOUSLY SELECT FOR CONFIRMING INFORMATION.
FOR EXAMPLE, IT, LIKE MANY HERE THIS WEEK, YOU HEAR WORRIED VOICES FRETTING ABOUT PRICES, AND INPUT COSTS, AND RENTS, AND GOVERNMENT POLICY, YOU WILL LIKELY BEGIN NOTICING MORE INFORMATION THAT SUPPORTS THOSE CONCERNS. WHEN A MARKET ANALYST TALKS ABOUT POSSIBLE RANGE FOR CORN PRICES FROM $2.50 TO $4.50, THE LOWER NUMBER WILL HAVE BIGGER IMPACT, EVEN IF THE ANALYST ASSIGNS IT A LOWER PROBABILTY.
TEASE:
VERY TIMELY JOHNS' WORLD THIS WEEK, THANKS SO MUCH JOHN. WELL, DON'T GO ANYWHERE CAUSE WHEN WE COME BACK  WE'RE GOING TO MEET A TOP PRODUCER OF THE YEAR FINALIST BREAKING THE MOLDON WATER CONSERVATION. THAT'S WHEN WE COME BACK.
U.S FARM REPORT IS PRODUCED AND DISTRIBUTED BY FARM JOURNAL BROADCAST.
SECOND HALF OF THE SHOW OPENING HEADLINES:
FROM THE STUDIOS OF FARM JOURNAL BROADCAST,  THIS IS U.S. FARM REPORT.  IF YOU'RE JUST JOINING US, WE'RE ON  THE ROAD THIS WEEK FROM THE 2016 COMMODITY  CLASSIC IN NEW ORLEANS, AND WE HAVE MUCH MORE AHEAD. WE SAT DOWN WITH ALL FOUR COMMODITY  ORGNAIZATION'S C-E-OS IN THIS WEEK'S FARM JOURNAL  REPORT TO SEE WHAT THEY'RE DOING TO GENERATE MORE DEMAND. CLINTON GRIFFITHS JOINS US AS WE MEET ANOTHER  TOP PRODUCER OF THE YEAR FINALIST, BALANCING AN  ITENSE PASSION FOR WATER, WITH A DESIRE TO GROW  HIGHER YIELDS. AND JOHN PHIPPS IS BACK WITH CUSTOMER SUPPORT. 
SUPREME COURT WON’T HERE CLEAN WATER ACT CASE:
NOW FOR THE HEADLINES, A DECISION BY THE  SUPREME COURT TO NOT HEAR A CASE CHALLENGING  THE WATERS OF THE U-S RULE , IS NOT SITTING WELL WITH  MANY ATENDEES HERE AT COMMODITY CLASSIC.  IT'S BEEN JUST TWO WEEKS AND ALREADY SUPREME  COURT JUSTICE SCALIA'S DEATH IS IMPACTING  FARM POLICY. THE SUPREME COURT SAYS IT WILL NOT HEAR A CASE  CHALLENGING THE 'POLLUTION DIET' THE  ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY PUT IN PLACE  FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY CLEAN WATER BLUEPRINT. IN 2010, THE EPA PUBLISHED A TOTAL MAXIMUM DAILY  LOAD DETERMINING HOW MANY POLLUTANTS, SUCH AS  NITROGEN, PHOSPHORUS AND SEDIMENT MAY BE  RELEASED ON A DAILY BASIS FROM THE SIX STATES  THAT COMPOSE THE WATERSHED.
FEDERAL COURT RULED LAST YEAR THAT RESTRICTIONS WERE VALID:
A FEDERAL APPEALS COURT RULED LAST YEAR THE T-M- D-L RESTRICTIONS ON RUNOFF AND WASTEWATER  POLLUTANTS ARE VALID...AND EPA ACTED WITHIN IT'S  AUTHORITY. SINCE THE SUPREME COURT IS NOT TAKING THE CASE,  THAT DECISION WILL STAND.  
DOW CHEMICAL SETTLES LONG-STANDING LAW SUIT:
MEANWHILE, SCALIA'S PASSING ALSO PROMPTING DOW  CHEMICAL TO SETTLE A LONG-STANDING CLASS ACTION  LAWSUIT.  THE COMPANY AGREEING TO PAY 835 MILLION DOLLARS-- RELATED TO ACCUSATIONS OF PRICE FIXING ON  POLYURETHANE. THE COMPANY MAKING THE DECISION TO SETTLE  BECAUSE OF THE RECENT PASSING OF SCALIA...CONSIDERED A  FRIEND OF COMPANIES FIGHTING CLASS ACTION SUITS.
EPA ATTEMPTING TO BAN BAYER INSECTICIDE:
 THE ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY SAYS IT  PLANS TO BAN THE USE OF AN INSECTICIDE PRODUCED  BY BAYER CROP SCIENCE.  IT'S REGISTERED FOR USE ON OVER 200 CROPS,  MOSTLY ON FRUIT TREES. BUT IT'S ALSO USED ON SOME  SOYBEAN AND COTTON FIELDS. E-P-A ANNOUNCED  TUESDAY IT'S INTENT TO CANCEL THE LICENSE FOR FLUBENDIAMIDE. THE AGENCY  ASKED BAYER TO VOLUNTARILY STOP SELLING THE  INSECTIDE BUT THE COMPANY REJECTED THE  REQUEST.  
G-M-O LABELING STANDARD CREATED:
FARM GROUPS ARE PRAISING THE SENATE AG  COMMITTEE THIS WEEK AFTER PASSING A BILL THAT  CREATES A NATIONAL G-M-O LABELING STANDARD. THE SENATE AG COMMITTEE PASSED LEGISLATION  TUESDAY THAT WOULD CREATE A NATIONAL  FRAMEWORK FOR THE LABELING OF BIO-ENGINEERED  FOOD PRODUCTS. THE BILL RECEIVED SUPPORT FROM ALL ELEVEN  REPUBLICAN MEMBERS AND THREE DEMOCRATS. THAT  BI-PARTISAN SUPPORT WILL BE NECESSARY WHEN THE  MEASURE REACHS THE SENATE FLOOR.
USDA FSIS WILL TAKE ON THE TASK OF INSPECTING CAT FISH:
 STARTING THIS WEEK THE FDA WILL NO LONGER  INSPECT CATFISH, A CHANGE WELCOMED BY CATFISH  PRODUCERS.  INSTEAD USDA FSIS WILL HAVE THE JOB.  ON MARCH FIRST, FSIS WILL START ITS 18 MONTH  TRANSITIONAL PERIOD.  THE SERVICE WILL MONITOR BOTH DOMESTIC AND  FOREIGN CATFISH. THE CHANGE WAS PUT IN PLACE AS PART OF THE 2008  FARM BILL AND IT'S BEEN A HOTELY CONTESTED ISSUE  FOR LAWMAKERS EVER SINCE. 
NATIONAL WEATHER:
ALRIGHT,  THAT'S IT FOR NEWS...ITS NOW TIME TO CHECK BACK IN WITH METEOROLOGIST MIKE  HOFFMAN. MIKE, I'M HEARING FROM SEVERAL OF OUR  FRIENDS IN THE SOUTH THAT SAY THEY'RE ALREADY STARTING TO PLANT.
THANKS, TYNE. YEAH, I'M SURE PLANTING IS UNDER WAY; ALTHOUGH I HAVE THE FEELING THAT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AREAS HERE ARE GOING O HAVE TO PUT A STOP TO IT FOR A WHILE, BECAUSE OF THE RAIN. THAT'S BECAUSE OF THIS BIG TROUGH. LOOK WHAT HAPPENS. OUR COMPUTER MODEL SHOWS THAT IT CUTS OF FOR TWO TO THREE DAYS THAT COULD PUT DOWN A LOT OF RAIN IN TEXAS AND OTHER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEFORE IT FINALLY TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
GENERATING MORE DEMAND DURING A FORECAST OF LOWER PRICES:
THANKS SO MUCH MIKE.  WELL, AS WE STAND HERE IN FRONT OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER HERE IN LOUISIANA JUST DOWN FROM THE PORT, ITS FITTING WE TALK ABOUT DEMAND.
AS CORN, SOYBEAN, SORGHUM AND WHEAT FARMERS  GATHER AT COMMODITY CLASSIC EACH YEAR,  LEGISLATIVE PRIORITIES CHANGE, BUT ONE THING THAT  STAYS THE SAME... TRYING TO GENERATE MORE  DEMAND. IN THIS WEEK'S FARM JOURNAL REPORT, WE  SAT DOWN WITH EACH COMMODITY ORGANIZATION'S C-E- O, AND FROM UNTAPPED OPPORTUNTIES, TO  REJUVINATING ETHANOL DEMAND, THEIR WORK IS  NEVER DONE.
YEAR OF SURVIVAL: 
<I'M GOING TO CLASSIFY IT AS A SURIVAL YEAR > JASON LAKEY ISN'T ALONE. CONSECUTIVE YEARS OF  SOBERING GRAIN AND OILSEED PRICES HAS SOME  FARMERS PREPARING FOR THE WORST.  AMERICAN SOYBEAN ASSOCITATION C-E-O STEPHEN  CENSKY UNDERSTANDS THE MODEST MOOD, THAT'S  WHY HIS FOCUS IS ON SAFETY  NETS AND DEMAND.  <, TO PROTECT THE FARM INCOME SAFETY NET, AND TO PROTECT THE CROP INSURANCE FROM BEING CUT. TO EXPAND TRADE OPPORTUNITIES THROUGH THE TTP THAT'S GOING TO SUPPORT PRICES. TO MAKE SURE WE  HAVE A ROBUST BIO-DIESEL DEMAND>
COMPETING IN THE MARKETS WITH A STRONG DOLLAR CREATES HEADWINDS:
 GENERATING MORE DEMAND IS A TOP PRIORITY FOR  ALL FOUR ORGANIZATIONS AT THIS YEAR'S COMMODITY  CLASSIC. <RIGHT NOW WE'RE FACING A BIT OF HEAD WINDS ON OUR EXPORTS,  BECAUSE OF THE STRONG U.S DOLLAR, WHICH HURTS US, AND REALLY THE  DEVALUED REAL IN BRAZIL AND THAT MEANS THAT THEIR EXPORTS ARE  GOING TO BE MORE ATTRACTIVE TO THE CHINSE BUYERS> CHINA GENERATES MIXED EMOTIONS FOR MANY AT  COMMODITY CLASSIC, AS CORN GROWERS DON'T SEE  THE SAME BENEFITS AS SORGHUM PRODUCERS.
CHINA:
<AS WE LOOK AT CHALLENGES, CERTAINLY CHINA, RELATIVE TO THEIR APROVAL OF  BIOTECHNOLOGY PRODUCTS, HAS BEEN A MAJOR CHALLENGE AND A  MAJOR LIMITATION FOR THE U.S. CORN INDUSTRY < THERE'S BEEN A LOT OF DISCUSSION THAT CHINA HAS BACKED OFF AND  QUIT BUYING. I THINK THE NUMBERS DON'T SUPPORT THAT. CHINA HAS  BEEN A HUGE BUYER OF SORGHUM AGAIN THIS YEAR. WHEN YOU LOOK AT SHIPMENTS TO  DATE A FEW WEEKS HERE BEFORE COMMODITY CLASSIC, OUR ACTUAL SHIPMENTS ARE ACTUALLY 23 PERCENT ABOVE A YEAR  AGO LEVELS. . > WHILE LUST IS CORRECT THAT CHINA IS STILL BUYING,  THE LATEST USDA NUMBERS SHOW OUSTANDING SALES  TO CHINA ARE MORE THAN 50 PERCENT BEHIND LAST  YEAR. 
CHINA STILL BUYING SOYBEANS:
MEANWHILE, ONE OF EVERY FOUR ROWS OF SOYBEANS  GOES TO THE LARGE ASIAN CUSTOMER, A MARKET  CENSKY DOESN'T SEE BACKING OFF.  <WE STILL SEE CONTINUED GROWTH IN THE CHINESE FEED INDUSTRY OF  AROUND 5 MILLION METRIC TONS A YEAR FOR SOYBEANS> CENSKY SAYS CURRENTLY, THE U-S REMAINS THE TOP  GLOBAL SOYBEAN PRODUCER. BUT THAT COULD  CHANGE.  <I THINK OVER TIEM BRAZIL WILL SURPASS THE UNITED  STATES, JUST BECAUSE THEY HAVE THE AVAILABLE LAND AREA, THEY  HAVE A LOT OF AREA IN THEIR SURROTA AREA OF BRAZIL, THE CENTER WEST  AND NORTHERN AREAS WHERE THEY CAN EXPAND PRODUCTION, SO I  THINK WE COULD SEE THAT OVER TIME>
CONSIDERING OTHER MARKETS:
THAT'S WHY A-S-A IS LOOKING INTO UNTAPPED  MARKETS, LIKE INDIA.  THEY HAVE A POPULATION THA'TS GOING TO EXCEED  CHINA IN THE NEXT 5 TO 10 YEARS. AND THEY ARE WANTING MROE MEAT  IN THEIR DIETS. THERE'S A LOT OF INDIANS THAT DO EAT PROULTY AND EAT  EGGS. SO THERE'S A LOT OF OPPOTURNITY FOR GROWTH THERE > THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF WHEAT GROWERS  SAYS THEIR GREATEST OPPOURNTITY IS A DEAL  ALREADY IN THE WORKS.   NAWG IS EXTREMELY SUPPORTIVE OF TPP. PARTICULARLY THE FACT  THAT 50 PERCENT OF U.S. WHEAT IS NORMALLY EXPORTED. ALL THE  COUNTRIES, PARTICULARILY WHEN YOU TALK JAPAN, KOREA, THE  PHILIPPINES ARE BIG CUSTOMERS OF U.S. WHEAT FARMER. AND PARTICULARLY THEY'RE   QUALITY CUSTOMERS.. >
DOMESTIC DEMAND:
 HERE AT HOME, IT'S RENEWABLE FUELS FOR WHICH  ORGANIZATIONS ARE HOLDING OUT HOPE, SAYING  DOMESTIC DEMAND STILL HASN'T MAXED OUT. <HAVE WE HIT A PLATEAU- THE ANSWER IS CERTAINLY NOT> SORGHUM PRODUCERS THINK RENEWABLE FUELS IS  ONE OF THEIR GREATEST AVENUES FOR SALES.  SORGHUM IS PLAYING A HUGE ROLE IN DOMESTIC  ETHANOL DEMAND RIGHT NOW. MOST PLANTS FROM KANSAS SOUTH ARE  50 TO 100 PERCENT SORGHUM. MOST OF THEM ARE CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT  SORGHUM. IT'S CERTAINLY A VIABLE PART OF OUR COMMODITY AND OUR INDUSTRY. >
USDA SUPORTS BIOFUEL GRANT PROGRAM:
 USDA IS ALSO HELPING INCRASE DOMESTIC DEMAND,  WITH THE NEW BIOFUEL GRANT PROGRAM. IT HELPS  PROVIDE FUNDING FOR ADDED INFRASTRUCTURE,  SUPPORTING NEARLY 5 THOUSAND PUMPS ACROSS 14  HUNDRED FUELING STATIONS AROUND THE COUNTRY. AND FOR NOVAK, THAT'S A MAJOR OPPORTUNITY FOR  CORN GROWERS.  SO WE KNOW THERE IS ROOM AND OPPORUTNITY FOR HIGHER BLENDS OF  ETHANOL ABOVE AND BEYOND THE 10 PERCENT BLEND THAT ARE  INCOROPRATED IN GASOLINE TODAY. > 
FINDING ETHANOL BUYERS:
SOME ANALYSTS THINK WE NEED TO START  SEARCHING ACROSS THE GLOBE FOR RENEWED  ETHANOL INTEREST. AND FOR SORGHUM PRODUCERS,  THAT COULD COME FROM COUNTRIES LIKE CHINA AND MEXICO  < WE LOOK AT MEXICO AND THE TREMENDOUS OPPORTUNITY AS AN  OCTANE SOURCE TO CLEAN UP THE AIR THERE. CERTAINLY CHINA LAST  SUMMER WE CONTINUE TO SEE THE SMOG AND THE REALITIES OF WHAT THE BENEFITS THAT ETHANOL COULD PROVIDE TO THAT COUNTRY.> FOR FARMERS LIKE LAKEY, THE DEMAND PICTURE IS  STILL BEING MADE FOR THE YEAR, BUT HE HOPES THE 
BULLS CAN PULL AHEAD, PROVIDING MORE HOPE OF A  PROFITABLE YEAR.  
GETTING VEHICLE MANUFACTURERS ON BOARD:
MEANWHILE, THE RENEWABLE FUELS ASSOCIATION SAYS THEY  ARE HAVING TROUBLE GETTING VEHICLE  MANUFACTURERS TO EVEN MAKE FLEX FUEL VEHICLES.  THAT'S WHY THEY'VE LAUNCHED A NEW CAMPAIGN  CALLED FLEX MY CHOICE.  YOU CAN CHECK IT OUT AT FLEX-MY-CHOICE-DOT-COM.  WHEN WE COME BACK, JOHN PHIPPS RE-JOINS ME. <INSTICT II NITROGEN STABILIZER  MAKES MORE NITORGEN AVAILABLE TO CORN LONGER-  FOR OPTIMIZED YIELD POTENTIAL. FROM DOW  AGROSCIENCES. SCIENCE...YIELD...SUCCESS.>
CUSTOMER SUPPORT:
YOUR CALL IS VERY IMPORTANT TO US.  PLEASE HOLD...
JOHN'S BACK WITH US THIS WEEKEND.  JOHN, FOR CUSTOMER SUPPORT, WE'RE GETTING ALOT MORE RESPONSES FROM VIEWERS VIA TWITTER.
I KNOW, AND THE GOOD THING ABOUT THAT IS THAT ITS ONLY 140 CHARACTERS, SO I DON'T HAVE  TO REDUCE IT DOWN TO SOMETHING WE CAN GET ON THE SCREEN.

OK - I GOT THIS TWEET FROM “MR. KRILLENBERGER”:

“TYNE'S GUEST AND OTHERS SAY KNOW YOUR COST OF PRODUCTION WHEN MARKETING. AREN'T THEY SEPARATE? GET LOW COST. GET HIGH PRICE.”
YOU ARE ABSOLUTELY CORRECT. THE PROBLEM FACING PRODUCERS DOES DEVOLVE DOWN TO THESE SIMPLE RULES. THERE ARE TWO SEPARATE TASKS INVOLVED. I TOO HAVE BEEN MILDLY AMUSED BY THE CHORUS OF ADVISORS REPEATING THE RATHER OBVIOUS COUNSEL TO REDUCE PRODUCTION COSTS. THAT ACTION IS A CONSTANT GOAL FOR PROFITABLE FARMING.
TEASE:
THANK YOU SO MUCH, JOHN. AND IF MORE PEOPLE WANT TO CONTACT YOU ON TWITTER, WHAT'S YOUR TWITTER HANDLE?
 @JOHNWPHIPPS. OK, AND THEN WE HAVE @USFARM REPORT.  REAL CREATIVE THERE. SO YOU CAN TWEET AT BOTH OF US.  ALRIGHT, UP NEXT, CLINTON GRIFFITHS JOINS ME FOR THIS WEEK'S LEAVE A LEGACY.
LEAVE A LEGACY:
WELCOME BACK. WE'RE HERE FROM NEW ORLEANS.  CLINTON GRIFFITHS JOINS US NOW. CLINTON,  A VERY HISTORIC TOWN.
ABSOLUTELY, YOU KNOW THIS TOWN HAS SEEN A LOT OF REBUILDING OVER THE LAST DECADE - WHICH LEADS US TO OUR LEAVE A LEGACY FEATURE THIS WEEK.  A FARM FAMILY IN ALICEVILLE, ALABAMA, WHO HAS TRANSITIONED FROM LIFE IN IN ALABAMA.

WATER, SO ESSENTIAL TO LIFE AND A CATALYST  BUBBLING BENEATH THE DEE RIVER RANCH STORY.  A STORY AND AN ELEMENT BEHIND ANNIE DEE'S  SUCCESS.  IT'S A ROAD THAT'S TAKEN TIME.  YOU WOULDN'T KNOW UNLESS ANNIE TOLD YOU- SHE  DIDN'T GROW UP ON A FARM. THAT PASSION  CAME LATER IN COLLEGE. 
TEASE:
THANKS SO MUCH, CLINTON. WHEN WE COME BACK, WE HAVE A SPECIAL CHURCH AND TRACTOR FROM RIGHT HERE IN LOUISIANA.
TRACTOR TALES:
WELCOME BACK.  WELL JOHN PHIPPS IS FILLING IN THIS WEEK FOR TRACTOR TALES AND OUR COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE, FROM RIGHT HERE IN LOUISIANA.
YES, WE'RE OFF TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA FOR A CLASSIC HIGH CROP. THIS FARMALL SUPER MTA IS ONE OF A KIND AND BUDDY BANKS IS PROUD TO HAVE THIS ONE IN HIS COLLECTION.

>> 1954 SUPER MTA HIGH CROP, ONE OF 64 THAT WERE EVER PRODUCED. AND THIS IS THE NEXT TO THE LAST ONE MADE. THE FIRST ONE MADE IS IN CHILLICOTHE, OHIO AND THE LAST ONE MADE IS IN GUNTERSVILLE, ALABAMA.
COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTES:
TODAY'S COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE GOES IS FROM  RIGHT HERE IN NEW ORLEANS TOO. ONE OF THE CITIES'  MOST NOTABLE LANDMARKS. IT'S THE STUNNING ST  LOUIS CATHEDRAL, DATING BACK TO 1727, MAKING IT  ONE OF THE OLDEST CATHEDRALS IN THE UNITED  STATES.
CROP WATCH:
JOHN PHIPPS JOINS ME THIS WEEK TO TAKE A LOOK AT VIEWER PHOTOS, AND WE START OFF IN WISCONSIN. MILD WINTER WEATHER HAS HELPED FOR EASY GRAIN MOVEMENT THIS YEAR.  JONATHAN GIBBS SAYS HE'S MOVING CORN OUT OF STORAGE TO A LOCAL ETHANOL PLANT - WHICH WILL BE CONVERTED INTO BOTH RENEWABLE FUEL AND FEED.
CLOSING:
FOR ALL OF US AT U.S. FARM REPORT THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR WATCHING AND JOINING US RIGHT HERE IN NEW ORLEANS THIS WEEK.  BE SURE TO JOIN US NEXT WEEK   AS WE WORK  TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND,  EVERYONE.  US FARM REPORT IS PRODUCED AND DISTRIBUTED BY FARM JOURNAL BROADCAST.

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