USFR Weekly Recap - April 14-15, 2018

April 14, 2018 03:30 AM
 
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TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
APRIL 14-15, 2018

HEADLINES

WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M TYNE MORGAN, AND HERE'S WHAT'S IN STORE OVER THE NEXT 60  MINUTES. THE PRESIDENT OFFERS SUPPORT OF HIGHER ETHANOL  BLENDS, WHILE ALSO THROWING OUT THE IDEA OF  REJOINING THE T-P-P.  WE CONTINUE OUR COLLEGE ROADSHOW WITH A STOP  AT MIZZOU.    I THINK WE ACTUALLY NEED NAFTA JUST TO CONTINUE TO TRY TO  HOLD GROUND AND WHERE WE'RE AT TODAY> FROM TRADE TO DICAMBA, WE COVER IT ALL.  WITH ANOTHER WINTER STORM BARRELING ACROSS  THE U-S, WHEAT FARMERS IN THE PLAINS BRACE FOR  THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE DAMAGE.  <"WE'VE HAD A NUMBER OF CONDITIONS ON OUR WHEAT CROP THIS YEAR THA'T SBEEN DIFIFULT FOR IT TO GET THROUGH" >     AND IN JOHN'S WORLD.  <WHAT OUTHER TRADE WEAPONS COULD CHINA USE? ><U.S. FARM REPORT - BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE DEPENDABLE, LONG  LASTING, CHEVY SILVERADO.> 

RFS
NOW FOR THE NEWS, FROM TALKS ABOUT REENTERING THE TRANS PACIFIC TRADE PARTNERSHIP TO THE  PRESIDENT SUGGESTING HE SUPPORTS HIGHER  BLENDS OF ETHANOL,  THE RHETORIC STRIKING A  CHORD OF HOPE WITHIN RURAL AMERICA THIS WEEK.  THE PRESIDENT TELLING REPORTERS THURSDAY THAT  HE SUPPORTS CONSUMRES HAVING YEAR-ROUND  ACCESS TO 15 PERCENT ETHANOL. AND HE SAYS IT  COULD HAPPEN WITHIN THE NEXT 12-MONTHS.  HOWEVER, THE PRESIDENT ALSO VOICING SUPPORT OF  OIL REFINERS .. IN RESPONSE, RENEWABLE FUELS ASSOCIATION SAID  THEY ARE PLEASED WITH THE PRESIDENT'S MESSAGE,  BUT ACKNOWLEDGED THERE'S STILL WORK THAT NEEDS  TO BE IN. RFS SAY S IN ORDER FOR E15 TO BE  ACHIEVED, EPA ADMINSTRATOR SCOTT PRUITT MUST  ALSO SIGN ON, AND QUIT PROVIDING WAIVERS AND  OTHER POLICIES THAT THE ASSOCAITOIN SAYS UNDERMINES THE RFS.  

TPP REJOIN
THE PRESIDENT ALSO TELLING AIDES THIS WEEK TO LOOK AT RE-ENTERING THE TRANS PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP. THAT COMES AFTER THE PRESIDENT HELD MEETINGS  WITH SENATORS AND GOVERNORS FROM THE MIDWEST  WHO TOLD HIM A POSSIBLE TRADE WAR WOULD HURT  AGRICULTURE. THAT GROUP SAID REJOINING THE  TRANS PACIFIC PARNTERSHIP MAY PRESSURE CHINA TO  END WHAT TRUMP VIEWS AS UNFAIR TRADE PRACTICES.   AND AG GROUPS LIKE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF  WHEAT GROWERS THROWING THEIR SUPPORT BEHIND  IT, SAYING THAT'S THE BEST WAY TO AVOID LOSING  HEFTY WHEAT SALES TO JAPAN.   SPEAKING OF TRADE, USDA  CONFIRMING OF PURCHASE  OF NEW CROP BEANS IS HEADED TO CHINA.  EVEN AS TRADE TENSIONS REMAIN.  <XI JINPING, CHINESE PRESIDENT: <"CHINA DOES NOT SEEK A TRADE SURPLUS. > CHINESE PRESIDENT XI JINPING SPEAKING AT A  BUSINESS CONFERENCE, PLEDGING TO REDUCE  TARIFFS ON AUTOS, STRENGTHEN PROTECTION OF INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY AND MOUNT A DRIVE TO  BOOST IMPORTS AS PART OF A QUOTE "A NEW PHASE  OF OPENING UP" THE COUNTRY. PRESIDENT XI MAKING NO DIRECT MENTION OF U.S. PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP, OR THE CURRENT TRADE  DISPUTE. 

CHINA FILES WTO DISPUTE
MEANWHILE, CHINA HAS FILED A DISPUTE WITH THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION ALLEGING THE U.S.  TARIFFS ON STEEL AND ALUMINUM VIOLATE WORLD  TRADE RULES.  TRUMP HAS BEEN INSISTENT THAT THE TWO NATIONS  WILL REACH A MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL AGREEMENT,  WHILE CHINESE OFFICIALS HAVE SAID NEGOTIATIONS  WOULD BE IMPOSSIBLE UNDER "CURRENT  CIRCUMSTANCES. THE HOUSE DEBUTING ITS DRAFT FARM BILL LANGUAGE THURSDAY, WITH MARK-UP EXPECTED IN APRIL.  HOSUE AGRICULTURE CHAIRMAN MIKE CONAWAY SAYS  THE PROPOSAL WOULD CREATE STRICTER  STIPULATIONS FOR FOOD STAMP RECIPIENTS,  INCLUDING MORE STRINGENT WORK REQUIREMENTS.  IT ALSO KEEPS ARC AND PLC SEPERATE, BUT CREATES  A ONE-TIME CHOICE FOR THE PROGRAMS, NO LONGER  ALLOWS FARMERS TO CHANGE THEIR OPTION YEAR TO YEAR.  FOR LIVESTOCK PRODUCERS, THE BILL CALLS FOR  MORE FUNDING FOR FOOT AND MOUTH DISEASE  VACCINES.  ON DAIRY, HOUSE AG COMMITTEE RANKING MEMBER COLLIN PETERSON INTRODUCING THE DAIRY RISK  MANAGEMENT ACT.  PETERSON SAYS THE LEGISLATION WOULD PROVIDE  DAIRY FARMERS WITH A STRONG SAFETY NET TO  ADDRESS VOLATILE MARKET CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF  THEIR CONTROL.  THE ACT WOULD REPLACE THE MARGIN PROTECTION  PROGRAM.  THE SENATE AG COMMITTEE LEADERS SAID THIS WEEK  THEY ARE COMMITTEED TO TO RLEASING ITS VERSION  OF THE 2018 FARM BILL THIS YEAR. NO DATE WAS SET.  

APRIL WASDE
ARGENTINA IS STARTING TO LOOK TO THE U-S TO BUY BEANS.  THAT'S AS USDA LOWERED THE ESTIMATE FOR ARGENTINA'S SOYBEAN CROP BY SEVEN MILLION TONS  TO 40 MILLION DUE TO REDUCED HARVESTED AREA AND  YIELD THIS WEEK.  THAT DROP DUE TO THE DROUGHT THIS YEAR.  HERE'S PRO FARMER'S BRIAN GRETE.  <ON THE SOYBEAN SIDE OF THINGS DRAMATIC 7 MILLION METRIC TON CUT  TO THE ARGENTINE SOYBEAN CROP WAY MORE THAN OFFSET A 2 MILLION METRIC TON INCREASE TO THE BRAZILIAN CROP AND AS A RESULT WE SAW  A BIG MONTH OVER MONTH DECLINE IN GLOBAL SOYBEAN ENDING STOCKS  DOMESTICALLY, U.S. ENDING STOCKS FOR CORN COME  IN AT 2.1 BILLION BUSHELS, UP 55 MILLION BUSHELS FROM LAST MONTH. THE INCREASE IS BASED ON USDA'S  EXPECTATION FOR REDUCED FEED AND RESIDUAL USE. . 2017-18 U.S. SOYBEAN ENDING STOCKS ARE ESTIMATED  AT 550 MILLION BUSHELS, DOWN 5 MILLION FROM LAST  MONTH. . 

BAYER’S MONSANTO ACQUISITION
THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE HAS APPROVED BAYER'S ACQUISITION OF MONSANTO- AFTER THE  COMPANIES AGREED TO SELL CERTAIN ASSETS TO GAIN  ANTI-TRUST APPROVAL. THE AGREEMENT COMES JUST WEEKS AFTER THE  EUROPEAN UNION'S APPROVAL OF THE DEAL WHICH REQUIRED SEVERAL DIVESTMENTS. HOWEVER, THERE ARE A FEW COUNTRIES LEFT TO  GRANT APPROVAL BEFORE THE COMPANIES ARE  ALLOWED TO LEGALLY MERGE.  THAT'S IT FOR THE NEWS. 

TEASE
AFTER THE BREAK, WE'LL CHECK IN WITH MIKE HOFFMAN. ANOTHER WINTER STORM PUMMELING HTE  COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND, BUT IS IT THE END OF  WINTER? WE'LL FIND OUT AFTER THE BREAK.  

WEATHER
WELCOME BACK. IT'S TIME NOW TO CHECK WEATHER WITH METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN. MIKE, ANOTHER  ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER BLOWING ACROSS THE  COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND. WHEN WILL IT END?  WELL THAT'S RIGHT TYNE. BUT IT WILL BE A LOT FARTHER NORTH THAN WE'VE BEEN SEEING OVER THE PAST THREE OR FOUR WEEKS. WINTER WILL CONTINUE IN PLACES ANYWAY. HERE'S THE DROUGHT MONITOR AND THE DROUGHT CONTINUING NO DOUBT ABOUT IT. WEST TEXAS WESTERN OKLAHOMA CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS BACK INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ALSO GET A LITTLE DRIER IN PARTS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA STILL KIND OF LINGERING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LET'S GO BACK A MONTH THOUGH. YOU CAN SEE HOW THINGS HAVEN'T CHANGED A WHOLE LOT IN THIS CASE. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME AREAS THAT IMPROVED A LITTLE BIT ESPECIALLY LIKE CALIFORNIA. BUT AS YOU GO THROUGH THE LAST FOUR WEEKS AND YOU CAN SEE HOW THE DROUGHT HAS BEEN EXPANDING. THAT'S THE HIGHEST EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT. NOW MANY PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TEXAS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND NORTHEAST CORNER OF NEW MEXICO A COUPLE OF SPOTS SHOWING UP THERE IN THE FOUR CORNER REGION AS WELL. SO SOMETHING WE DEFINITELY HAVE TO WATCH AS WE HEAD INTO THIS GROWING SEASON IN THAT PART OF THE COUNTRY. THERE ARE BIG STORMS ELSEWHERE THOUGH THE JETSTREAM SHOWS ONE OF THEM AS WE HEAD THROUGH TODAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST YOU WILL NOTICE THAT THE REALLY COLD AIR IS CUT OFF FROM THE ARCTIC OCEAN. WHEN WE HAVE THESE STORMS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THEY WILL EACH PULL DOWN A QUICKSHOT OF COLDER AIR. IT IS NOT ARCTIC AIR. AND THEN IT WILL WARM RIGHT BACK UP AGAIN AND THAT'S GOING TO BE THE CASE. WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WEAKER SYSTEM KIND OF MOVING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY THEN WE SEE A MORE POWERFUL ONE AGAIN COMING INTO THE PLAINS STATES THE WESTERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY AND THAT WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST AS WELL. SO KIND OF AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK OR SO IS MONDAY STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. YEAH THAT'S SNOW ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA PROBABLY MIXING WITH RAIN RAIN FARTHER EAST SEE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW OUT IN THE WEST WITH THAT NEXT STORM SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY. THEN THAT STORM IS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY THE ONE OVER THE GREAT LAKES LINGERING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME AREAS OF SNOW AGAIN BUT THERE WILL BE SHOWERS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH THUNDERSTORMS DOWN ALONG THE FRONT. OFF TO THE NORTHWEST THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM COMING IN WITH SOME RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THAT STORM IS DIVING THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES LOTS OF WET WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THIS IS AT LEAST SOME HOPE FOR THOSE DROUGHT AREAS. I DON'T THINK YOU GET A BUNCH OUT OF IT BUT HOPEFULLY YOU GET AT LEAST SOME WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A POSSIBILITY THERE LINGERING SNOW IN NEW ENGLAND NEXT SYSTEM COMING INTO WASHINGTON. SO LET'S CHECK THE 30 DAY OUTLOOK BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE OHIO VALLEY MID-ATLANTIC NORTHEAST GREAT LAKES NORTHERN PLAINS THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR THE SOUTHEAST ABOVE NORMAL SOUTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE SOUTHWEST. PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 30 DAYS I HAVE AN ABOVE NORMAL AREA FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST.  ALSO IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST NORTHERN ROCKIES BUT FROM SOUTH DAKOTA ALL THE WAY DOWN THROUGH TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TYNE. THANKS, MIKE.

TEASE
WHEN WE COME BACK, OUR COLLEGE ROADSHOW CONTINUES. THIS TIME WE MAKE A STOP AT THE  UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI. FROM FARM BIL TO DICAMBA,  WE'LL ASK THE EXPERTS AFTER THE BREAK.  

ROUNDTABLE 1
ALL RIGHT WELCOME BACK TO US FARM REPORT THIS WEEKEND WELL AS I MENTIONED BEFORE THE BREAK. EXCITED TO HEAD BACK TO MY ALMA  MATER UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI TO TALK TO SOME OF THE LEADING  ECONOMISTS AND WEED SCIENTISTS IN THE COUNTRY ABOUT SOME THINGS THAT ARE AT PLAY RIGHT NOW. AND WE HAVE NO SHORTAGE OF  THINGS TO TALK ABOUT. SO LET'S GET STARTED TALKING ABOUT THE TARIFF  NEWS WITH CHINA. NOT SURE EXACTLY WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN SCOTT  BUT IF WE DO SEE THESE TARIFFS GO INTO PLAY. IF WE DO SEE THESE GO  INTO EFFECT WHAT PRICE DO YOU THINK U.S. PRODUCERS ARE GOING TO HAVE TO PAY. WELL CERTAINLY WE KNOW THAT THOSE TARIFFS MEAN LESS  TRADE WITH CHINA ON A NUMBER OF PRODUCTS. WE ALREADY KNOW  PORT MARKETS IN PARTICULAR WITH THAT 25 PERCENT INCREASE IN TARIFF IS MARKET IMPORTANT FOR PORK VARIETY MEATS AND ULTIMATELY IS GOING  TO LEAD TO LOWER PRICES FOR PRODUCERS. I THINK THAT ENDS WHAT  MIGHT HAVE BEEN A PROFITABLE SITUATION INTO ONE THAT WILL BE A LOT  OF RED INK. WHEN WOULD THAT HIT WHEN DO YOU EXPECT THAT TO HIT.  WELL IN MANY WAYS WHEN YOU LOOK AT WHAT'S HAPPENING ON THE PORK SIDE THAT'S ALREADY STARTING TO TAKE PLACE. AND WHEN YOU  REALIZE THAT THE CHINESE TAKE NEARLY TWO THIRDS OF ALL PORK VARIETY  MEATS AND IN THE WORLD THERE'S NOT MANY OTHER MARKETS FOR THOSE  AND SO WE CAN CERTAINLY SEE A LOSS OF FOUR TO FIVE DOLLARS A HOG  AS A RESULT OF THAT AND THAT'S UNFORTUNATELY COMING AT A TIME WHEN WE ALREADY HAVE LOW PRICES WITH THE LARGE SUPPLIES TODAY. PAT THE SAME TIME WHEN WE SAW THE ANNOUNCEMENT WITH SOYBEANS WE SAW A SUDDEN DROP IN SOYBEAN PRICES. ARE YOU  AMAZED AT HOW PRICES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REBOUND SINCE? I THINK  A LOT OF FOLKS ARE STILL SKEPTICAL WHETHER THESE TARRIFS ARE GOING  REFORMS. OF COURSE IF THEY DON'T KNOW FOR SURE THIS COULD ALL GO  AWAY. BUT IT IS A CASE THAT IN SOUTH AMERICA WE'VE SEEN HEFTY PREMIUMS FOR SOUTH AMERICAN SOYBEANS ALREADY. YOU KNOW  WHEN WE LOOK AT WHAT THE PRESIDENT HAS SAID HE HAS SAID THAT IF  THESE TARIFFS GO INTO PLACE THAT HE WOULD PROTECT FARMERS AND HE'S  DIRECTED USDA TO DO THAT. NOT SURE EXACTLY HOW THAT LOOKS BUT  POSSIBLY SUBSIDIZING FARMERS FOR SOME OF THOSE PRICE LOSSES. IF THAT HAPPENS, WHAT TYPE OF CAN OF WORMS COULD THAT OPEN WITH  THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION IF FARMERS HERE IN THE U.S. ARE  GETTING SUBSIDIZED? WE CAN EXPECT IN OTHER COUNTRIES WILL HAVE A MAJOR PROBLEM IF WE PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT TO PEOPLE  BECAUSE OF THE SITUATION. SO I DON'T EXPECT TO CHALLENGE THAT  WOULD OCCUR EITHER FORMALLY IN THE WTO OR JUST A ONE TO ONE COUNTRY VERSUS ANOTHER. AND SO THAT SEEMS LIKE IT THEN THAT  OPENS UP A WHOLE NEW SET OF PROBLEMS. SCOTT IF WE HAVE OTHER  COUNTRIES THAT ARE FILING THESE WTO COMPLAINTS WHEN WE CURRENTLY HAVE ONE RIGHT NOW WE'LL GET CHINA FOR EXAMPLE WITH  WHEAT. THAT'S CORRECT.  I MEAN YOU HAVE TO REALIZE THAT IN MANY OF OUR  COMMODITIES 25 PERCENT OR MORE WHAT WE PRODUCE TODAY IS  LEAVING THE UNITED STATES, LOSING THOSE MARKETS AS A RESULT OF  WTO ACTIONS OR OR COUNTRIES JUST DECIDING THEY ALSO WANT TO  MOVE TO OTHER COUNTRIES THAT THAT POTENTIALLY IS A BIG PROBLEM  WHEN ACROSS THE BOARD WE'VE SEEN AN EXPANSION OF AG  COMMODITIES SUPPLIES AND IT BECOMES A VERY BAD TIME FOR JUST  ABOUT EVERY COMMODITY WE CAN TALK ABOUT IN AGRICULTURE. WE'VE  TALKED SO MUCH ABOUT CHINA, PAT THAT IT SEEMS LIKE WITH NAFTA  THAT'S KIND OF GONE GONE QUIET. WE HAVEN'T HEARD AS MUCH ABOUT NAFTA BUT WE HAVE SEEN SOME PROGRESS BEING MADE. I KNOW  WE'RE COMING UP ON A VERY HARD DEADLINE. TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT  WHAT CHALLENGES WE STILL HAVE WITH GETTING NAFTA, NEW DEAL SET. SO OTHER THAN SOLUTIONS AND RENEGOTIATION OF IF IT HADN'T ARISEN.  BUT VERY IMPORTANT IS THE CALENDAR WE HAVE MEXICAN ELECTIONS  COMING UP THIS SUMMER. THE PEOPLE BELIEVE THAT IF WE DON'T GET AN AGREEMENT FAIRLY SOON IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO GET ONE  SEVERAL MONTHS FROM NOW. BUT DO YOU FEEL LIKE WE'VE MADE  PROGRESS. DO YOU FEEL LIKE NAFTA 2.0 DEAL IS CLOSE. I THINK WE STILL DON'T KNOW ENOUGH ABOUT WHAT'S HAPPENING INSIDE BEHIND  CLOSED DOORS. BUT FROM MY UNDERSTANDING THERE'S BEEN A LOT OF  THINGS THAT HAVE BEEN RESOLVED BUT SOME MAJOR ISSUES ARE STILL AROUND. BUT IF WE DO GET NAFTA 2.0 DONE WHAT TYPE OF LIFE COULD  THAT BRING TO OUR PORK MARKET. WELL SUPPORT MARKET YOU KNOW GIVEN IT'S ONE OF OUR TOP THREE IN TERMS OF EXPORTS I THINK IT'S VERY  IMPORTANT WE NEED IT RIGHT NOW ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT A  CHINESE MARKET THAT MAY GO AWAY FOR US IN TERMS OF PURE VARIETY  MEAT. SO NAFTA MATTERS A LOT IN THESE MARKETS. WOULD IT BE  ENOUGH THOUGH TO INCREASE PRICES. I'M NOT CERTAIN.  I THINK WE ACTUALLY NEED NAFTA JUST TO CONTINUE TO TRY TO  HOLD GROUND AND WHERE WE'RE AT TODAY. IT MAY NOT BE A BIG PRICE  INCREASE IN MANY WAYS I GO. WE JUST NEED TO CONTINUE WHAT WE'VE SEEN OCCUR GOING TO MEXICO ALREADY. I DON'T THINK THIS ADDS  A LOT OF ADDITIONAL BROUGHT UP FOR US. PAT YOU AGREE WITH OUR.  WE'RE TRYING TO AVOID A NEGATIVE. KEVIN LAST YEAR AT THIS TIME WE  SAT HERE AND YOU TALKED ABOUT THIS BIG EXPERIMENT THAT WAS  GETTING READY TO HAPPEN WITH THAT DICAMBA, IN NOT JUST MISSOURI BUT BUT ALL ACROSS THE COUNTRY IN YOUR OPINION IN 2017. HOW DID  THAT EXPERIMENT GO WITH THAT DICAMBA. NOT SO GREAT. YOU KNOW  LAST YEAR WE HAD AS I SAID AT THE TIME ABOUT A 20 MILLION ACRE EXPERIMENT. I CAN'T REALLY VIEW IT AS A SUCCESS GIVEN THE DEGREE  OF OFF TARGET MOVEMENT THAT OCCURRED. WE'RE GETTING READY TO  PLANT ABOUT TWICE THAT MUCH. WE'RE GOING TO PRETTY MUCH HAVE A SECOND YEAR OF THAT EXPERIMENT AGAIN. BUT DID WE HAVE KEY  LEARNINGS IN 2017 THAT THIS YEAR YOU THINK WITH ALL THIS TRAINING  THAT'S GOING ON THAT WILL HELP MORE FARMERS MORE APPLICATORS BE ON THE SAME PAGE WHEN IT COMES TO DICAMBA TO MAYBE HAVE  BETTER SUCCESS THIS YEAR. I SINCERELY HOPE SO. I THINK SO. THERE'S  NO QUESTION THAT WE'VE DONE AN UNPRECEDENTED AMOUNT OF TRAINING ACROSS THE U.S.. NOTHING LIKE THAT HAS EVER OCCURRED  BEFORE FOR JUST ONE ACTIVE INGREDIENT IN ONE TYPE OF HERBICIDE ON  THE MARKET. YOU KNOW THOUSANDS UPON TENS OF THOUSANDS OF APPLICATORS HAVE BEEN TRAINED IN THIS STATE ALONE SOMEWHERE  BETWEEN 4 AND 5000 APPLICATORS. RIGHT NOW TODAY. SO OBVIOUSLY WE WOULDN'T DO THAT UNLESS WE WERE HOPEFUL  THAT THAT'S GOING TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE WAS REAL QUICK WAS THERE  ANY KEY LEARNING LAST YEAR THOUGH THAT LIKE CERTAIN TANK MIXES AND THINGS THAT WERE CAUSING THIS THIS PRODUCT TO BE MORE  VOLATILE. UNFORTUNATELY WE'RE STILL LOOKING. AND THAT'S WHAT'S REALLY  FRUSTRATING. YOU KNOW I HOPE THERE'S THE ONE THING THAT WE CAN  IDENTIFY IN THROUGH RESEARCH AND THERE'S A LOT OF SCIENTISTS THAT  ARE TRYING TO DO THAT BUT I DON'T KNOW THAT THERE'S THAT ONE THING  THAT WE'VE FOUND YET. ALL RIGHT THIS CONVERSATION'S JUST GETTING  STARTED. WE NEED TO TAKE A QUICK BREAK HERE ON U.S. FARM  REPORT. BUT COMING UP LATER ON THE SHOW WE HAVE A HIT ON FAR BILL  YET. WE'LL TALK A LITTLE BIT MORE ABOUT DICAMBA. WE'LL DO ALL OF THAT  WHEN WE COME BACK ON U.S. FARM REPORT. 

JOHN’S WORLD
THE THREAT OF 50 BILLION DOLLARS WORTH OF CHINESE TARRIFS IS STILL THERE. BUT, ARE TARIFFS  THE END OF HTE STORY? HERE'S JOHN PHIPPS.  I HESITATE TO STAY ON THE TOPIC OF TRADE ISSUES BUT AFTER LISTENING  TO MARKET ANALYSTS TRYING TO PREDICT THE IMPACT OF THE PROPOSED  TARIFFS, THERE MAY BE SOME BACKGROUND INFORMATION THAT WOULD US  MAKE OUR OWN PLANS. WHILE I HAVE HEARD CREDIBLE ARGUMENTS THAT CHINESE TARIFFS WOULD SIMPLY SHIFT GRAIN FLOWS WITH LITTLE PRICE  IMPACT, I ALSO FIND PERSUASIVE PROJECTIONS OF SIGNIFICANT PRICE DECLINES FOR US GROWERS. HERE IS SOMETHING TO KEEP IN KIND. THE TRADE IMBALANCE FOR  GOODS BETWEEN CHINA AND THE US IS SHOWN HERE. THIS ILLUSTRATES ONE CONSTRAINT FOR THE CHINESE. THEY CAN ONLY TARIFF $130B  DOLLARS OF GOODS, WHILE THE US CAN TARGET $500B. IN A TIT-FOR-TAT  EXCHANGE SUCH AS WE'VE SEEN RECENTLY, THEY COULD RUN OUT OF AMMUNITION. THE $150B TARIFF TARGET PROPOSED BY PRESIDENT  TRUMP EXHAUSTS THEIR MATCHING ABILITY. IT ALSO MEANS THAT SOYBEANS ARE VERY UNLIKELY TO GET A PASS -  THERE SIMPLY AREN'T ENOUGH OTHER PRODUCTS WE EXPORT TO CHINA FOR  THEM TO TARIFF. IN FACT, SOYBEANS ARE SECOND ONLY TO PLANES. THIS APPLIES TO OTHER AG PRODUCTS AS WELL, BUT ON A SMALLER SCALE. WHAT OTHER MEASURES COULD CHINA TAKE? A SIMPLE ONE WOULD BE  DEVALUATION OF THE YUAN. DESPITE THE RHETORIC OF THE LAST FEW  YEARS, CHINA HAS BEEN QUIETLY SUPPORTING THEIR CURRENCY AND COMING CLOSE TO LETTING IT FLOAT, OR BE DETERMINED BY CURRENCY  MARKETS. DEVALUING THE YUAN BY SETTING THE PEOPLES BANK OF  CHINA EXCHANGE RATE LOWER WOULD RAISE PRICES FOR US GOODS IN CHINA AND OFFSET MUCH OF THE TARIFF EFFECT HERE IN THE US. BUT IT  COULD ALSO TRIGGER INFLATION AND UNDERMINE A HEAVILY INDEBTED  CHINESE ECONOMY. CHINA COULD ALSO RETALIATE IN SERVICES AS WELL AS GOODS TRADE.  THE US HAS A $38B TRADE SURPLUS IN SERVICES WITH CHINA, SO THAT  TOOL IS RELATIVELY LIMITED AS WELL.  THE BOTTOM LINE IS FEW EXPERTS EVEN IN CHINA HAVE PLANNED HOW TO RESPOND TO THE US TARIFFS BECAUSE THEY WERE SO IMPROBABLE.  THE ACTIONS CHINA WILL TAKE IN THE FUTURE ALMOST NECESSARILY WILL  BE SURPRISING, AND THEIR EFFECT ON FARM PRODUCT PRICES VIRTUALLY  IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT. WE ARE ABOUT TO CONDUCT ONE OF THE  LARGEST MACROECONOMIC EXPERIMENTS IN HISTORY. FARMERS ARE  SOME OF THE GUINEA PIGS INVOLVED. THNAKS, JOHN. 

TEASE
IT'S A MIXED BAG OF FEELINGS IN AGRICULTURE WHEN  IT COMES TO A POSSIBLE TRADE WAR, WITH NOT  EVERYONE AGAINST. HE'LL HAVE MORE ON THAT IN  CUSTOMER SUPPORT. BUT UP NEXT, A SPECIAL FARM  ALL C.  

TRACTOR TALES
HEY WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES FOLKS THIS WEEK. YOU'RE  HEADING MY WAY TO THE LAND OF 10000 LAKES. WE'RE GOING TO  CHECK OUT A VERY SPECIAL FARM ALL C. BUILT IN 1948. THIS TRACTOR SPENT SOME TIME ON THE FARM. PAUL FELICE AND HIS BROTHERS ARE  HERE TO SHARE THE FAMILY STORY OF THIS WORKING RED. THIS IS A 1948  C. THIS WAS OUR DADS. SO WE ALL GREW UP ON THIS TRACTOR PRETTY  MUCH YOU KNOW AND THIS WAS BASICALLY THE MAIN WORKHORSE FOR  YEARS ON THE FARM AND HAD MOUNTED CORN PLANTER ON IT AND THE  MOWER GREAT OF THAT ABOUT ANYTHING THAT NEED TO BE CULTIVATOR.  SO IT DID A LOT OF WORK AROUND HERE. THIS ONE'S BEEN ALL RESTORED  BY A GUY OVER BY ELGIN MINNESOTA. HE'S DONE AND HE DID MOWER AND HE'S DONE A LOT OF MY TRACTORS ALREADY AND DOES AN EXCELLENT  JOB ON THEM AND PRICED A LITTLE HIGHER THAN SOME. YOU SHOULD GET  WHAT YOU PAY FOR RIGHT? ITS ORIGINAL TIRES ON IT AND EVERYTHING YET  SO I MEAN THAT'S IT'S PRETTY GOOD FOR THAT DAY AND AGE. THERE ARE  ABOUT 18 HORSE THEY ARE YOU KNOW THEY AIN'T REAL POWERFUL BUT FOR  A LITTLE TRACTOR YOU KNOW THEY REALLY PULLED MORE THAN THE WEIGHT  HAD TWO BOTTOM PLOW FOR IT. AND I THINK YOUR BROTHER BILL HE WAS A PLOWIN WITH IT WHEN HE WAS ONLY SIX SEVEN YEARS OLD HE SAID. SO  SO THAT TELLS YOU HOW FAR BACK IT WAS FIRST THE FIRST TRACTOR I PLAN ON  GOING WITH THE FOUR ROAD PLANTER WHEN I GOT OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL. DAD SAID IT WAS TIME FOR ME TO PLANT CORN. SO WEEL PLANTER AND A C YOU THOUGHT YOU HAD A BIG OUTFIT. YEAH I'D SAY IT'S PROBABLY MY FAVORITE ONE. OH IT JUST SAID IT WAS DAD'S  YOU KNOW. AND HE MANAGED TO KEEP ON TO IT. OH I THINK IT'S YOU  KNOW AFTER WE'RE GONE YOU KNOW HOPEFULLY ONE OF MY BOYS OR SOMEBODY WILL KEEP IT AROUND. THANKS SO MUCH. 

TEASE
STILL TO COME, WORRIES ABOUT THE WINTER WHEAT CROP ARE GAINING STRENGTH, WITH THE SECOND  WORST CONDITION RATINGS SINCE 1986.  AND WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN  THIS WEEK, WHEAT FARMERS COULD BE IN FOR  ANOTHER ROUND OF CROP LOSS. WE'LL HAVE THE  STORY AFTER THE BREAK.  

FARM JOURNAL REPORT
IF WINTER WHEAT HAS 9 LIVES, IT MAY BE ON ITS LAST...  WITH ANOTHER FREEZE EXPECTED TO HIT THIS  WEEKEND. BUT THAT DOESN'T HELP THE FACT THERE'S JUST TOO  MUCH WHEAT AROUND THE GLOBE.  JUST THIS WEEK, USDA RAISING THE PROJECTED  ENDING STOCKS THIS YEAR BY 30 MILLON BUSHELS.  FROM DROUGHT, TO MULTIPLE FREEZES THIS SPRING,  THE CROP IS STRUGGLING TO SURVIVE.  THAT'S THIS WEEK'S FARM JOURNAL REPORT.  THE PROJECTED 2017/18 U.S. WHEAT ENDING STOCKS COME IN 30 MILLION BUSHELS HIGHER TO 1.06 BILLION  BUSHELS... IT'S A STRUGGLING WHEAT CROP IN THE PLAINS,  ADDING TO THE ANXIETY FOR KANSAS WHEAT  FARMERS, LIKE JUSTIN KNOPF.  <"WE'VE HAD A NUMBER OF CONDITIONS ON OUR WHEAT CROP THIS YEAR THA'T SBEEN DIFIFULT FOR IT TO GET THROUGH" > THE SALINE COUNTY FARMER  WATCHES WHEAT GET  PUT TO THE TEST EVERY YEAR. BUT 2018 IS PUSHING  WHEAT'S LIMITS.  <"IT'S A RESLILENT CROP, BUT THERE'S A LOT OF THINGS OUTSIDE OF OUR  CONTROL THAT'S ADDING TO THE STRESS OF RAISING A PROFITABLE CROP THIS  YEAR"> USDA'S LATEST CROP PROGRESS REPORT PAINTING A  GRIM PICTURE FOR KANSAS WHEAT THIS YEAR, WITH 13  PERCENT RATED GOOD TO EXCELLENT, AND 44  PERCENT  CONSIDERED POOR TO VERY POOR.  NATIONALLY, IT'S THE SECOND WORST CROP EVER,  DATING BACK TO 1986.  THE WEATHER UNLEASING ANOTHER ROUND OF  POSSIBLY FATAL WEATHER THIS PAST WEEKEND, WHEN  A HARD FREEZE BLANKETED THE STATE. BUT FOR  KNOPF'S WHEAT IN SALINE COUNTY, KANSAS, HE  DOESEASTER WEEKEND 2007 WE HAD SNOW AND THEN  FREEZING TEMPERATURES FORABOU THE NEXT 4 OR 5 NIGHTS, AND WE LOST OUR ENTIRE WHEAT CROP THAT YEAR. "> MEANWHILE, WHEAT SPECIALISTS ARE LOOKIN GTO  DETERMINE HOW MUCH DAMAGE IS OUT THERE. BUT  IMMATURITY IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEN KANSAS  MAY  SAVE IT FROM DEVASTATING FREEZE DAMAGE THIS  ROUND.  <" IT WULD HAVE BEEN A DEVASTATING FREEZE HAD THE CROP HAD  NORMAL MATURITY THIS TIME OF YEAR"> THOSE FREEZING TEMPS GRIPPED SOME AREAS  HARDER THAN OTHERS.  <"THERE WERE PARTS OF THE STATE LIKE HILL CITY FOR EXAMPLE IN  NORTHWEST KANSAS WHERE WE MEASURED 5 OR 6 DEGREES FARENTHIT."> KANSAS STATE WHEAT SPECIALISTS SAY THE FARTHER  SAID THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU TRAVEL IN TEH STATE, THE FURTHER ALONG THE CROP IS. AND SO THE  SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE IS AT THE HIGHEST  RISK OF INJURY..  < WE WERE BELOW THAT 24 THRSHOLD FOR HAT PART OF THE STATE FOR  ABOUT 6 HOURS OR SO, I THINK THAT CAN HURT, WE CAN SEE SOME OF THE PRIMARY TILLERS GET SLAUGHTERED OFF IN THAT PART OF THE STATE"> AND THE BIGGER RISK OF DAMAGE SITS IN OKLAHOMA  RIGHT NOW, AS CONCERNED FARMERS EVEN  CANCELLED NEW CROP WHEAT CONTRACTS THIS WEEK.   <"1 PERCENT OF OKLAHOMA WAS HEADED ALREADY, MORE OF IT WAS IN THE BOOT STATGE WHERE WE'D LOOK AT 24 DEGREEES FOR 2 HORUS AS  BEING A CRITICAL TEMPAERATUE. AND TEMPS DROPPED DOWN IN THE  LOW 20S IN MANY FO THOSE AREAS OF OKLAHOMA"> OKLAHOMA STATE'S DAVID MARBURGER SAYS SCARS  ARE STARTING TO SHOW UP. <WE ARE STARTING NOW TO SEE SOME INJURY SYMPTOMS, SUCH AS LEAF  TIP BURNING. > BUT HE SAYS IT'S STILL TOO EARLY TO DEPICT THE  EXTENT OF DAMAGE IN OKLAHOMA THIS YEAR.  <IT'S THE HARDEST THING TO DO, BUT IT'S BEST TO WAIT A WEEK IF IT'S STILL  COOL, MAYBE A LITTLE BIT LONGER THAN A WEEK, AND THEN GO OUT AND  ASSESS WHAT TYPE OF INJURY DID WE GET ON THIS CROP> IT'S A DELAYED CROP THAT'S ALREADY STRUGGLING AS  DROUGHT WORSENS ACROSS BOTH OKLAHOMA AND  KANSAS.  THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS WHILE 58  PERCENT OF OKLAHOMA IS SEEING DROUGHT,  EXCEPTION DROUGHT NOW COVERS 18 PERCENT OF  THE STATE.  IN KANSAS, MORE THAN 97 PERCENT IS COVERED WITH  DRY CONDITIONS AND NEARLY 60 PERCENT IS  CONSIDERED SEVERE OR WORSE. KNOPF HASN'T  SEEN RAIN SINCE FALL.  "AFTER THOS RAINS FINISHED IN OCTOBER, IT STOPPED RAINING EVERY  SEINCE. WE'VE HAD THE DRIEST WINTER ON RECORD FOR MUCH OF KANSS."> DESPITE THE DRYNESS, HE'S NOT SEEING  A TOTAL LOSS. < "I THINK WE'RE GOING OTO HARVEST EVERYING. BUT YIELDS ARE GOING OT BE VARIABLE AND I WOULD SAY WE'RE GOING TO HAVE A PERCENTAGE  OF ACRS THAT'S  GOING TO BE BELOW AVERAGE"> IT'S THAT DISAPOINING STORY PLAYING OUT FOR  WHEAT GROWRS ACROSS THE PLAINS.  <"THE DROUGHT HAS STILL TAKEN AWAY A LOT OF THE YIELD POTENTIAL.  AND THAT'S GOING TO HURT THE CROPS ABILITY TO COME BACK FROM THIS  SPRING FREEZE DAMAGE"> KNOPF KNOWS POOR YIELDS MAY BE INEVETABLE THIS  YEAR. < WE'RE GOING TO BE IN A REAL DICEY SITUATION AS WE HEAD WARMER  TEMPERATURES....AND IF RAINS SWEPT THE STATE TODAY, LULLATO SAYS  SOME OF HTE STATE'S CROP ISN'T SALVAGABLE.  <"IF WE HAVE SOME RAIN SOONS, WE CAN STILL HAVE DECENT CROP, BT  IN PARTS OF THE STATE, SOUTHWEST KANSAS, I BELIEVE WE ALREADY HURT OUR YIELD POTENTIAL"> IT'S THAT POTENTIAL ALSO LOST IN PARTS OF  OKLAHOMA.  <YOU'VE GOT A THIRD OF HTE STATE THAT'S IN DEPICABLE, DESPERATE  CONDITIONS. AND THEY'RE LOOKING AT YIELDS 10 BUSHELS PER ACRE. OKLAHOMA STATE'S KIM ANDERSON SAYS IF THERE'S A  SILVER LINING IN ALL OF THIS, IT'S THE POSSIBLE PROTEIN OF THE WHEAT THIS YEAR. <THIS YEAR I THINK QUALITY IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN YIELD. NOW PRICES  YOURE GOING TO BE PAID ON THE BUSHELS PRODUCED, HOWEVER, IF WE  PRODUCE A CROP WITH RELATIVELY LOW PROTEIN AND LOW TEST WEIGHT,  WE'RE GOING TO HAVE PRICES BELOW $4, IF WE CAN AVERAGE4 12-5  PROTEIN, 59 TEST WEIGHT, WE'RE GOING OT HAVE PRICES UP 5, 5.25 BECASEU THE MARKET NEESD THE WHEAT> BUT LOLLATO SAYS THE BIG QUESTION IS IF  PRODUCERS WILL ACTUALLY GET PAID FOR THAT  <THE LAST TWO YEARS THEY WERE BECAUSE THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE HAD LOW PROTEIN, SO WHOVERVER MANAGED FR THAT PROTEIN WERE  GETTING A PREMIUM. SO IF EVERYONE HAS A HIGH PROTEIN, MAY BE  GOD FOR THE MARKET, BUT NOT FOR THE PRDUCERS. "> WHETHER IT'S FROM YIELD OR PROTEIN, WHEATPRODUCERS LIKE KNOPF SAY THEY NEED HIGHER PRICES   <"RIGHT NOW WE'RE HOVERING RIGHT AROUND BREAK EVEN PRICES, GOING ON BOTH SIDES OF THAT. > AND SUDERMAN SAYS THE RECIPE FOR HIGHER WHEAT  PRICES WOULD BE TWO KEY EVENTS. < ONE WOULD BE A PROBLEM IN ANOTHER MAJOR WHEAT PRODUCING  AREA OF TH WORLD THAT COMPTETS WITH OUR MILLING WHEAT HERE INT EH  PLAINS. THE OTHER FACTOR WOULD BE THE CONTINUED STRENGTH IN CORN.  AS PRICES STRUGGLE TO REACH BREAK EVEN, HE SAYS THE LATEST FREEZE ISN'T HIS TOP CONCERN. <"I'M PROBABLY MORE CONCERNS ABOUT THE ONGOING DROUGHT AND  TRADE. THOSE ARE THE TWO OUTSIDE FACTORS PROBABLY IMPACTING  PRIFITBAILITY ON MY WHEAT CROP VERSUS THE FREEZE THIS WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH IT WAS RECORD COLD> THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF WHEAT GROWERS THROWING ITS SUPPORT BEHIND THE FARM BILL THIS  WEEK,  SAYING THEIR LEADERS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT  A STRONG SAFETY NET, AND PRODUCERS HAVING A  CHOICE BETWEEN ARC AND PLC PROGRAMS.  THE ASSOCIATION ALSO WANTS TO SEE WORKING  LANDS PRIORITIZED IN THE CONSERVATION PROGRAM  WITHIN THE FARM BILL. 

ROUNDTABLE 2
WELCOME BACK. WELL AGAIN WE'RE HERE AT THE UNIVERSITY OF  MISSOURI FOR COLLEGE ROAD SHOW HERE WITH SOME ECONOMISTS AND  A WEED SCIENCE AND WEED SCIENTIST YOU KNOW WE JUST TALKED A LOT ABOUT CHINA A LOT ABOUT TRADE A LITTLE BIT ABOUT THAT DICAMBA BUT  LET'S TALK ABOUT THE FARM BILL. PAT LET'S START WITH YOU. WE KNOW WE  HAVE HURDLES THIS YEAR BUT DO YOU THINK WE CAN GET A FARM BILL  PASSED IN 2018. I THINK IT'S VERY DIFFICULT BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE. WHY  IS IT DIFFICULT. WE HAVE LOTS OF CHALLENGES. I MADE A LIST OF CHALLENGES RECENTLY SEVEN OR EIGHT ON MY LIST NOW IS 9 OR 10.  SNAP THE MOST IMPORTANT ONE WE HAVE TO BE ABLE TO GET A RESOLUTION IN BOTH THE HOUSE AND SENATE TO PASS THE SAME BILL.  RIGHT NOW IT'S NOT CLEAR HOW THAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN. AT THE SAME  TIME. SCOTT WE HAVE SOME INDUSTRIES LIKE LET'S SAY DAIRY FOR  EXAMPLE THAT'S IN DIRE NEED OF A DIFFERENT PROGRAM THAT THAT THAT  THEY HAVE TODAY. SO WHAT COULD HAPPEN IF WE DO SEE AN EXTENSION LET'S SAY OF A FARM BILL. WHAT WHAT COULD HAPPEN WITH  DAIRY. YES IT'S A LITTLE HARD TO SAY ALTHOUGH I REMIND US THAT OUT OF  THE BUDGET ACT WE PASSED, DAIRY DID GET SOME ADDITIONAL FUNDING. WE DID GET CHANGES ON THE MARGIN PROTECTION PROGRAM  THAT I THINK NOW PRODUCERS GET A CHANCE TO SIGN UP FOR IN HERE IN  2018. SO BY EARLY JUNE THEY'RE GOING TO NEED TO BE SIGNED UP FOR 2018 COVERAGE IN MANY WAYS THAT MAY PUT SOME DOLLARS IN THEIR  POCKET THAT ARE MUCH NEEDED IN THIS VERY TOUGH FINANCIAL TIMES. BUT IS THAT JUST FOR THIS YEAR SO THAT THOSE CHANGES WILL BE  FOR THE LIFE GOING FORWARD. SO UNTIL WE PASS ANOTHER FARM BILL OR  NEW LEGISLATION THAT WILL CONTINUE WHETHER OR NOT PRODUCERS SEE  THAT AS HELPFUL TO THEM AFTER 2018. WE'LL WAIT AND SEE AT THIS  POINT. WELL AND YOU KNOW WE KNOW WITH DAIRY PRODUCERS WE DID A STORY RECENTLY ON U.S. FARM REPORT ABOUT THOSE 80 DAIRY  PRODUCERS THAT LOST A HOME FOR THEIR MILK. WE'RE LOOKING AT DAIRY  PRODUCERS THAT ARE LEAVING EITHER VOLUNTARILY OR FORCED TO LEAVE  THE BUSINESS JUST BECAUSE PRICES HAVE BEEN BELOW BREAKEVEN  FOR SO LONG. WHEN YOU LOOK AT PRICES IS THERE IS THERE ANY HOPE IN THE FUTURE WHEN IT COMES TO DAIRY. YES I DO THINK WE HAVE SEEN  SOME INCREASES IN THINGS LIKE CHEESE PRICES OF LATE THAT I THINK  WILL TRANSLATE INTO HIGHER PRICES FOR MILK FOR PRODUCERS AS WE LOOK AHEAD. HOWEVER WE HAVE TOO MUCH MILK IN THIS COUNTRY TODAY  AND IT'S HARD TO FIND A HOME FOR ALL THE MILK THAT WE HAVE AND WE  KNOW WE STILL HAVE SEVERAL WEEKS HERE OF PROBABLY ADDITIONAL SUPPLIES AS WE GO THROUGH SPRING FLUSH. SO IT'S LIKELY NOT GOING TO  TURN AROUND VERY QUICKLY BUT MAYBE THE SECOND HALF OF 2018  THINGS THAT ARE A LITTLE BETTER, SOME MAY NOT FIND THAT MUCH BETTER WHEN THEY LOOK AT THEIR BOTTOM LINE, BUT AT LEAST A LITTLE HIGHER  PRICE. SO IF WE HAVE AN EXTENSION OF THE FARM BILL PAT WE DON'T  GET A NEW ONE PASS. WHAT WOULD THAT EXTENSION LOOK LIKE. WOULD IT BE EXACTLY WHAT WE HAVE TODAY. WELL THAT'S ONE OF THE BIG QUESTION MARKS WILL WE SIMPLY  CHANGE IN DATES OR DO WE MAKE A FEW MINOR CHANGES AS WELL. ON TOP OF THAT LIKE ONE IMPORTANT QUESTIONS WERE PEOPLE WHO  HAVE THE ABILITY TO MAKE A NEW CHOICE OF ART VERSUS SEE IN 2019  LENDERS AND BY EXTENSION. THE PRESIDENT SUGGESTS MAYBE. ANOTHER IMPORTANT PROBLEM ARE THE OPPHAN PROGRAMS, THERE ARE  A BUNCH OF PROGRAMS THAT HAVE FUNDING THAT LOANS AT THE END OF  THIS FISCAL YEAR. A SIMPLE EXTENSION WOULD NOT CONTINUE THOSE PROGRAMS THROUGH TO SPEND SOME TAXPAYER MONEY. SO IF WE  CAN'T GET AN AGREEMENT ON THE FOOD PORTION AND SPECIFICALLY SNAP  DOES THIS CONVERSATION JUST JUST STOP WHEN IT COMES TO THE FARM  BILL. I MEAN THERE WILL BE NO NEGOTIATION THAT TAKES PLACE? IT'S NOT  CLEAR. I THINK THERE'S A GOOD CHANCE IT COULD GO BEYOND THE  ELECTION. WE COULD BE DOING SOMETHING DURING THE LAME DUCK  SESSION OF CONGRESS OR IN 2019. BUT HOW HARD IS THAT. IT'S NEVER DOESN'T GET EASIER ANY TIME SOON. AND AT THE SAME TIME WHEN  YOU LOOK AT CHINA AND SOME OF THESE OTHER ISSUES THAT WE LET'S  SAY WE DO SEE THESE TARIFFS GO INTO PLAY AND WE DO HAVE TO HAVE SOME FIXES IN THE FARM BILL. DOES THAT JUST MAKE THAT JOB EVEN  MORE DIFFICULT?YES, THAT'S THE REASON MY LIST OF SEVEN OR HAS  BECOME A LIST OF EIGHT OR NINE DEALS. WHAT DO YOU THINK NEEDS TO HAPPEN IN THE FARM BILL SCOTT. WHAT DO YOU WANT TO SEE  CHANGED? WELL I THINK WE CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR WHAT ARE THOSE.  BETTER SAFETY NETS FOR PRODUCERS AND AND SOME OF THE THINGS THAT WE PASSED IN THE 2014 FARM BILL. NOW MAY COME BACK AND SAY HOW DO WE MAKE THEM  STRONGER IN TERMS OF THAT SAFETY NET YET TRY TO KEEP TAXPAYER COSTS UNDER CONTROL. THAT'S A VERY FINE LINE TO WALK. OFTENTIMES WE'RE  LOOKING AT PROGRAMS THAT SPEND VERY LITTLE. MOST OF THE TIME BUT IF  WE GET IN VERY LOW MARGINS OR VERY LOW PRICES COULD SPEND BILLIONS OF DOLLARS. THAT'S A VERY TOUGH CHALLENGE FOR CONGRESS  JUST TO WRITE TITLE ONE OF THE FARM BILL LET ALONE THE REST OF THE OTHER  ISSUES THAT WE FACE. KEVIN SPEAKING OF D.C. I KNOW NOVEMBER 9TH IS AN IMPORTANT DATE WHEN IT COMES TO DICAMBA WHY THE ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY WILL DECIDE WHAT HAPPENS WITH  THESE HERBICIDES ON NOVEMBER 9TH 2018. FOR THE FIRST TIME THAT  I'M AWARE OF AND OUR HERBICIDE HISTORY TWO YEARS AGO THEY GRANTED A CONDITIONAL REGISTRATION THAT ONLY LASTED UNTIL THAT TIME.  I THINK IT'S SAFE TO SAY THEY'RE GOING TO BE LOOKING PRETTY CLOSELY AT WHAT HAPPENS THIS YEAR. THEY ARE GOING TO BE LOOKING VERY  CLOSELY AT WHAT HAPPENS THIS YEAR. SO WHAT ADVICE DO YOU HAVE  FOR FARMERS WHO NOW WE'RE HEADING INTO THIS PLANTING SEASON THIS GROWING SEASON. WHAT ADVICE DO YOU HAVE WHEN IT COMES TO  DICAMBA. WELL THERE'S NO QUESTION THAT THESE TRAITS COULD HELP US  WITH OUR BIGGEST PROBLEM RIGHT NOW WHICH IS REALLY TWOFOLD. NUMBER ONE IS WE HAVE RESISTANT WEEDS AREN'T UNPRECEDENTED  SCALE ACROSS OUR LANDSCAPE. AND NUMBER TWO IS WE REALLY HAVE  NO FUTURE HERBICIDES COME INTO THE MARKET. I MEAN EVERY  HERBICIDE MANUFACTURER WILL TELL YOU THAT. SO THERE WOULDN'T BE  THESE TRAITS IF IT WEREN'T FOR THAT FACT. SOIF WE NEED THESE TECHNOLOGIES TO STAY ON THE MARKET IF  YOU'RE A FARMER AND YOU WANT TO CONTROL WATER HEMP OR PALMER  AMARANTH OR WHATEVER YOUR WEED PROBLEM IS WE CAN'T AFFORD TO  DO IT WRONG. YOU CANNOT AFFORD TO GO OUT THERE ON A DAY WHERE  IT'S QUESTIONABLE AND SAY YOU KNOW WHAT I'VE GOT TO GET THIS DONE  AND MAKE A POOR DECISION BECAUSE DASH CAM WAS UNLIKE ANY  OTHER TECHNOLOGY OR HERBICIDE THAT WE'VE HAD. IT SHOWS UP WHEN  IT MOVES OFF TARGET. VERY GOOD ADVICE. THANK YOU ALL FOR JOINING  US. WE HAVE MUCH MORE OF THIS CONVERSATION GO TO AG WEB.COM FOR THAT. BUT THIS WEEKEND WE'LL TAKE A QUICK BREAK AND WE'LL HAVE  MUCH MORE ON U.S. FARM REPORT. 

BAXTER BLACK
THE BEEF BUSINESS IS A TOUGH AND COMPETITIVE BUSINESS. BUT BAXTER BLACK BREAKS IT DOWN FOR  US AS WE HEAD OUT WEST.  THE BEEF CATTLE BUSINESS TODAY HAS EVOLVED INTO FIVE DISTINCT  SEGMENTS. LET ME START WITH NUMBER ONE PUREBRED BREEDERS THE ARCHITECTS FOR THE INDUSTRY THEY STEEPED THEMSELVES IN STATISTICS  AND THEY REDEFINE GENETICS IN AN EFFORT TO DEFINE SUBJECTIVE TRAITS  OBJECTIVELY NOT UNLIKE ANCIENT MARINER DRAWING AND REDRAWING THE  CONSTELLATIONS IN THE NIGHT SKY. THE NEXT SEGMENT NUMBER TWO IS  THE COMMERCIAL COW CALF OPERATOR. THEY PRODUCE OUR PRODUCT TO BEEF FROM SCRATCH. THEY THINK IN TERMS OF GENERATIONS BOTH  HUMAN AND BOVINE AND THEY HAVE A LOYALTY TO THE LAND. YOU  RARELY HEAR ONE SAY OH THAT'S RIGHT AND TO MAKE ENOUGH MONEY  TO BUY A CAR DEALERSHIP DOWNTOWN THE GROWER SEGMENT TREE TAKES CALVES ONCE THEY'VE BEEN WEYNE AND KEEPS THEM TILL THEY  ARE BIG ENOUGH TO GO TO THE FEEDLOT. THEY COME FROM FARMS SALE  BARNS DOG POUND AND TRADERS. IT IS A HANDS ON DEMANDING JOB EQUIVALENT TO TEACHING KINDERGARTEN THROUGH THIRD GRADE LOT. THE  BABY SITTER STATEMENT NUMBER FOUR IS THE FEEDLOT. THIS IS WHERE  MOST OF THE COSTS AND GAINS ARE PREDICTABLE WITHIN REASON.  HOWEVER PREDICTING THE MARKET 120 DAYS LATER IT'S LIKE A ROLL OF  THE DICE. CATTLE FEEDERS COULD EASILY BE WILDCATTER PROSPECTORS TEST PILOTS PUNT RETURNER OR WALL STREET SPECULATORS. THEY THRIVE  ON RISK. IF YOU GUARANTEED THEM A 20 PERCENT PROFIT ON A  TRUCKLOAD OF STEERS HOLD OUT FOR TWENTY HOURS THEN THE FINAL  SEGMENT IN OUR CATTLE BUSINESS IS THE PACKING HOUSE OR A LIVE  CATTLE ARE TURNED INTO BEEF. VERY LITTLE IS KNOWN ABOUT THESE  CURIOUS PEOPLE. THEY SEQUESTER THEMSELVES IN RITUALISTIC CONFINES OR THEY CHANT AND HER PHRASES LIKE YELLOW ON THE RADIO  GRUNDIG CRITICAL SHOTS GET A NO VOTE. THE REST OF US. THERE IS A MYSTERIOUS IS THE VATICAN WERE ONLY  AWARE OF THEIR PRESENCE WHEN WE SEE A WHITE PUFF OF SMOKE.  THEN THE PHONE RINGS. OFFERING LESS THIS IS BAXTER BLACK AND I'M WORKING ON FIVE SEGMENTS FROM OUT THERE. THANKS, BAXTER.  TO HEAR MORE FROM BAXTER, VISIT BAXTER BLACK  DOT COM. 

TEASE
WHEN WE COME BACK, NOT EVERYONE IS AGAINST THE TARIFF DISPUTE WITH CHINA. JOHN HAS MORE IN  CUSTOMER SUPPORT.  

CUSTOMER SUPPORT
WELL, ALL THIS TALK ABOUT TRADE... AND THERE ARE  STILL MORE ANGLES TO EXPLORE. HERE'S JOHN PHIPPS.   CODY SUTTON, A YOUNG FARMER FROM MONROE CITY, IN CONTRIBUTES  HIS OPINION ON TARIFFS: "I CAN ONLY THINK OF THREE CATEGORIES OF FARMERS WHO WOULD  CRITICIZE PRESIDENT TRUMP'S PROPOSED TRADE POLICIES WITH CHINA.  THE FIRST OF THESE: THOSE WHO ARE FINANCIALLY UPSIDE- DOWN/UNDERWATER AND, APPARENTLY, $0.25 FROM GOING BANKRUPT. I WOULD SAY THESE PEOPLE NEED TO BANKRUPT AND THEIR OPERATIONS  NEED TO BE LIQUIDATED. THE SECOND CATEGORY: THOSE WHO FEAR  THEIR STANDARD OF LIVING MAY BE IMPOSED UPON - I.E. THEIR ACCOUNTANT HAS ADVISED THAT THEY MAY NOT BE ABLE TO TRADE THIS YEAR IF MARKETS WERE TO SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE; BUT, THAT THEIR  LAKE HOUSE SHOULD BE OK FOR NOW. I DON'T FEEL SORRY FOR THESE  PEOPLE EITHER. THE THIRD CATEGORY: THOSE INDIVIDUALS THAT ARE PRIMARILY CONCERNED WITH THE GROWTH AND EXPANSION OF THEIR  OPERATION. THE BIG-TIMERS WHO HAVE A PLAN TO EXPAND THEIR  10,000 ACRE OPERATION TO 14,000 ACRES IN THE NEXT THREE YEARS, THEN TO 20,000 AFTER THAT, WHICH SOME "TRADE WAR" WITH THE GOD- FORSAKEN COMMUNIST CHINESE MAY DELAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY, I  HAVE NO SYMPATHY FOR THOSE INDIVIDUALS, EITHER." I READ HIS LETTER BECAUSE MANY FARMERS AND FARM ORGANIZATIONS  SEEM TO BE IGNORING FARMERS LIKE CODY. WHILE I DISAGREE WITH HIM, AND HAVE OFFERED REASONS WHY, IT IS CLEAR TO ME SAYING  FARMERS DON'T SUPPORT A POSSIBLE TRADE WAR IS AN OVERSTATEMENT.  MAYBE MOST, BUT NOT ALL FARMERS. LAST WEEK I NOTED TRADE SUPPORTERS REALLY HAVEN'T ANSWERED  SUCH CRITICISMS. THERE IS A SIMPLE REASON. EXPANDING GLOBAL  TRADE HAS HAD UNIVERSAL BENEFITS FOR ALL AMERICANS - MORE AFFORDABLE CLOTHING AND ELECTRONICS ARE JUST TWO OF THOUSANDS OF  EXAMPLES. THIS ALLOWS US TO SPEND MORE ON OTHER GOODS AND  SERVICES, GENERATING DOMESTIC DEMAND AND JOBS. BUT FEW OF US TRULY APPRECIATE THESE SAVINGS, BECAUSE WE ARE TRIGGERED BY  RISING PRICES, NOT LOWER ONES. THIS RISE IN THE STANDARD OF LIVING IS  GRADUAL AND UNACKNOWLEDGED. BUT PEOPLE WHO WORKED IN JOBS THAT COULD BE DONE BY OTHERS IN  LOW-WAGE COUNTRIES SAW A DIFFERENT RESULT - MANY WERE LAID OFF.  EVEN THOUGH THEIR NUMBER WAS TINY COMPARED TO BOTH THE BENEFITS TO THE WHOLE ECONOMY AND THE MUCH LARGER NUMBER OF  NEW JOBS TRADE GENERATES, THEIR WORLD WAS DEVASTATED. WE  CANNOT STOP JOBS FROM DISAPPEARING, BUT WE CAN MITIGATE THE EFFECTS OF JOB LOSS. NEXT WEEK FOR SURE, I'LL OUTLINE WHAT THOSE  STEPS MIGHT BE. THANKS, JOHN.  IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS FOR JOH,  SEND HIM A NOTE AT MAILBAG AT U-S FARM REPORT  DOT COML 

TEASE
WHEN WE COME BACK, SOME VIEWER PHOTOS... AND SOME UNUSUAL PHOTOS FOR SPRING. THAT'S NEXT.  

FROM THE FARM
WELCOME BACK. MIKE WHAT DO YOU NOT EXPECT TO SEE ON APRIL 8TH IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI. SNOW OK YOU ANSWER MY QUESTION. BUT YOU KNOW JANET CAPTURED THIS SNOWY VIEW LAST  WEEK AND I IMAGINE THOSE COWS ARE PRETTY CONFUSED RIGHT NOW  WITH MOTHER NATURE. I KNOW I KNOW I AM YEAH. NO DOUBT ABOUT IT AND JUST A COUPLE HOURS NORTH JEFF NALE IN ORRICK MISSOURI GOT  THE PLANTER ROLLING THIS WEEK. SO PLANT OFFICIALLY UNDERWAY THERE.  AND THOSE TWO PICTURES TAKEN JUST A FEW DAYS APART. I MEAN TWO  EXTREMES THIS YEAR. SO THE QUESTION EVERYONE WANTS TO KNOW  WHERE THE QUESTION THAT I WANT TO KNOW IS WINTER OVER. NO BUT WE ARE AT A TRANSITION STAGE HERE. I THINK WE'RE DONE WITH THE REALLY  STRONG ARCTIC AIR THAT GOES WAY TO THE SOUTH. NORTHERN STATES STILL  GOING TO SEE SOME OF IT. BUT WE HAVE THESE BIG STORM SYSTEMS COMING ACROSS THE COUNTRY. SO THERE WILL BE SOME A LOT OF WET IN  A FEW PLACES GETTING SNOW BUT NOT GOING TO BE AS COLD THE NEXT  30. 

CLOSE
AND FOR ALL OF US THE U.S. FARM REPORT I'M MIKE HOFFMAN AND I'M TIME MORGAN.  THANK YOU FOR WATCHING. BE SURE TO JOIN US AGAIN RIGHT  HERE NEXT WEEK AS WE WORK TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION. HAVE A  GREAT WEEKEND EVERYONE.   

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