USFR Weekly Recap - August 11-12, 2018

August 11, 2018 03:30 AM
 

TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
AUGUST 11-12, 2018

HEADLINES

WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M TYNE MORGAN, AND HERE'S WHAT'S IN STORE OVER THE NEXT 60  MINUTES. AS THE TRADE AND AGRICULTURE BRACES FOR SOME  VIEW AS A RECORD CORN YIELD, USDA HAS ITS OWN  OPINION OF WHAT THIS YEAR'S CROP COULD HOLD.  IT'S A MARKETING DISCUSSION FROM THE SOYBEAN  CAPITAL OF HTE WORLD <INSERT SOT> WE'RE ON THE ROAD TO THE SHOW-ME STATE.   AS MISSOURI FARMERS FACE DROUGHT, IT'S THE  BATTLE WITH THE MISSOURI RIVER ENGULFED IN A  LAWSUIT.  <"I THINK EARLY ON I DIDN'T REALLY KNOW FOR SURE WHAT WAS CAUSING  IT," SAID FRAKES. "I JUST THOUGHT THERE'S SOMETHING DIFFERENT.> THAT'S OUR FARM JOURNAL REPORT.  AND IN JOHNS' WORLD

NEWS
NOW FOR THE NEWS, USDA UNLEASHING ITS LATEST CROP REPORT WITHOUT A LOCK-UP HELD IN ADVANCE. AND THE TRADE WATCHING TO SEE JUST HOW LARGE  THIS YEAR'S CORN CROP MAY BE.  U-S PORK EXPORTS ARE FEELING THE AFFECTS OF  TARIFFS FROM TWO BIG CUSTOMERS. AND USDA BLINDSIDING SOME, MAKING BIG JUMPS IN THE AGENCY'S YIELD AND PRODUCTION ESTIMATES. THOSE ESTIMATSE HIT ABOVE AVERAGE TRADE GUESSES, INITIALLY SENDING SOYBEANS SHARPLY LOWER. CORN AND WHEAT ALSO TRADING DOWN AFTER THE REPORT. USDA PUSHED THE NATIONAL AVERAGE CORN YIELD 4 POINT 4 BUSHELS HIGHER, AT 178 POINT 4 BUSHELS PER ACRE. SOYBEAN YIELD SEEING A 3 BUSHEL HIKE TO 51 POINT 6 BUSHELS PER ACRE. AND LOOKING AT PRODUCTIOIN, CORN BUDGED HIGHER TO 14 POINT 58 BILLION BUSHELS. SOYBEAN PRODUCTION PEGGED AT 4 POITN 58 BILLION BUSHELS. HERE'S JO VACLAVIK OF STANDARD GRAIN. NOW WHEN WE START TO LOOK AT THE BALANCE SHEETS HERE THE SOYBEAN NUMBERS ARE ESPECIALLY TROUBLING THE 18 19 US CARRY OUT PEGGED AT A WHOPPING SEVEN HUNDRED AND EIGHTY FIVE MILLION BUSHELS. I BELIEVE THAT WOULD BE THE LARGEST ON RECORD IF REALIZED. WE'VE GOT THE STOCKS TO USE RATIO NOW AT 18 AND A HALF PERCENT ACCORDING TO TODAY'S NEW CROP PROJECTIONS WHICH IS THE HIGHEST THAT WE'VE SEEN IN RECENT MEMORY. SO SOME REALLY NEGATIVE NUMBERS ON THE SOYBEAN SIDE HERE BOTH GLOBALLY AND DOMESTICALLY. WHEAT SEEING A BULLISH SPIN IN THE REPORT, WITH USDA SAYING LOWER SUPPLIES AND GREATER USE WITH AGENCY SLASHING ENDING STOCKS BY 50 MILLION BUSHELS. THE TARIFF FEUD IS WEIGHING HEAVILY ON FARMERS'  MINDS. AND IT'S SHOWING UP IN FARMER SENTIMENTS  GUAGED BY PURDUE UNIVERSITY AND CME.  THE MONTHLY PURDUE UNIVERSITY AG ECONOMY  BAROMETER DROPPED 26 POINTS IN JULY.  THAT'S THE  BIGGEST ONE MONTH DECLINE IN THREE YEARS. JIM MINTERT- WHO HELPS AUTHOR THE SURVEY- SAYS TRADE WAR CONCERNS AND STAGNANT GRAIN PRICES  ARE TO BLAME.   <"WHEN WE ASKED THE IMPACT ON  INCOME. OVER 70 PERCENT OF HTE RESPONDENTS WHO EXPECT AN  IMPACT, THEY THOUGHT THEIR INCOME WOULD DECLINE BY 10 PERCENT  OR MORE. "> EVERY MONTH THE BAROMETER SURVEYORS ASK IF  NOW IS A GOOD TIME TO MAKE A LARGE INVESTMENT IN  THE FARM. 73-PERCENT SAID NO...THE MOST NEGATIVE  RESPONSE SINCE MARCH OF 2016. THE KANSAS CITY FED REVEALING THE FARM ECONOMY  DETERIORATING, ALONG WITH THE LATEST DOWNTURN  IN COMMODITY PRICES.  THE FED REPORTING CREDIT CONDITIONS EROED DURIN  GHTE SECOND QUARTER OF HTE YEAR, WITH BANKERS  REPORITN GA MODEST INCREASE IN PROBLEMS WITH  BORROWERS REPAYING LOANS.  THERE'S ALSO MORE DEMAND FOR FARM LOANS.  AG LENDER ALAN HOSKINS SAYS LOAN DELINQUENCIES  MAY NOT BE FULLY REVEALED UNTIL SPRING.  < I THINK WE'RE GOING TO HAVE A MUCH BETTER IDEA ON DELINQUENCIES AS MOST OPERATING LOANS COME DUE IN TEH SPRING,  SO YOU'RE NOT LOOKING AT THAT ON THOSE. CANDIDLY, UNTIL WE GET INTO  SPRING, AND A LOT OF THE TERM LOANS BECAUSE OF TIMING OF PAYMENTS AND CASHFLOW WITH THOSE AS WELL, I WOUDL ANTICIPATE  THAT ON THE CASH SIDE, DELINQUENCIES MAY NOT STARTING SHOW ITS  HEAD UNTIL FEBRUARY OR MARCH OF NEXT YEAR> IN THE ST LOUIS DISTRICT - COVERING THE SOUTHERN  CORNBELT AND MID-SOUTH - BANKERS SAY THEY HAVE  LESS VOLATILITY IN FARM INCOME BECAUSE IT'S BASED  LESS ON ROW CROPS AND MORE ON CONTRACTPOULTRY GROWERS. WHILE PRICES ARE OFF THEIR  HIGHS, THEY HAVE STABILIZED. QUALITY FARMLAND VALUES FELL THREE-AND A HALF  PERCENT IN THE SECOND QUARTER. BUT RANCH AND PASTURELAND VALUES CLIMBED ONE-POINT SIX PERCENT. LAND VALUES APPEAR TO BE HOLDING FAIRLY STEADY  IN THE HEART OF THE MIDWEST AS WELL. FARMLAND VALUES FOR THE CHICAGO FED DISTRICT EDGED UP ONE PERCENT IN THE SECOND QUARTER  FROM A YEAR EARLIER.   WISCONSIN HAD THE BIGGEST YEAR-OVER-YEAR CLIMB -  UP FOUR PERCENT.. AS MORE DAIRY FARMERS EXIT THE BUSINESS, A NEW INSURANCE PROGRAM MAY HELP EASE THE BRUNT OF  FALLING MILK PRICES.  IT'S A NEW DAIRY INSURANCE PLAN FOR DAIRY PRODUCERS-- MUCH LIKE CROP INSURANCE AMERICAN FARM BUREAU'S INSURANCE SERVICE IS  OFFERING THE POLICY, AND IT'S BACKED BY USDA'S  RISK MANAGEMENT AGENCY THE PROGRAM INSURES AGAINST UNEXPECTED  DECLINES IN QUARTERLY MILK SALES. CALLED DAIRY REVENUE PROTECTION, IT INSURES FOR  THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE FINAL REVENUE  GUARANTEE AND ACTUAL MILK REVENUE IF PRICES  FALL. COVERAGE LEVELS RANGE FROM FROM 70 TO 95 PERCENT OF REVENUE...AND IT'S AVAILABLE IN ALL 50  STATES, AND CAN BE USED EVEN IF A PRODUCER  PARTICIPATES IN THE MARGIN PROTECTION PLAN. . CONGRESSMAN COLLIN PETERSON, ONE OF THE  AUTHORS OF MPP, ADMITS THIS NEW INSRANCE POLICY  MAY BE A BETTER FIT FOR DAIRY PRODUCERS.  < IF CORN, SOUYBEANS AND ANY OF THESE OTHER CROPS ARE ANY INDICATION, IT'S POPULAR WITH FARMERS AND IT'S GOING TO HAVE THESE  CROP INSURANCE AGENTS OUT THERE EXPLAINING IT AND SELLING IT TO  PEOPLE. INSTEAD OF HTE FSA WHICH ARE NOT SALESMAN, AND THAT'S BEEN PART OF HTE PROBLEM> 

TEASE
STILL TO COME, ARE MORE AUGUST RAINS ON THE WAY? MIKE HOFFMAN HAS YOUR FORECAST. PLUS- WE'RE ON TEH ROAD TO THE SOYBEAN CAPITAL  OF THE WORLD  

WEATHER
WELCOME BACK. .METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH WEATHER... MIKE, WE'RE IN  MISSOURI THIS WEEK FOR OUR MARKETING  DISCUSSION. THEY RECEIVED JUST UNDER AN INCH OF  RAIN EARLIER THIS WEEK-- BUT MUCH MORE IS NEEDED  ACROSS THE STATE.  TYNE THERE'S NO DOUBT THAT HAS BEEN A FRUSTRATING AREA THIS YEAR BECAUSE IT JUST SEEMS LIKE EARLIER IN THE SEASON THEY GOT MISSED BY THINGS. NOW WHAT WE SEE THOUGH IS THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS KIND OF WHAT I WOULD SAY SPLOTCHY ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES IN OTHER WORDS THERE ARE PLACES THAT ARE ACTUALLY A LITTLE BIT ON THE WEST SIDE AND HAVE NO DROUGHT WHATSOEVER. BUT IN GENERAL FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI FAR SOUTHERN IOWA ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS IT'S DRIER THAN NORMAL WITH SOME AREAS SEEING EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHTS THE MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS STILL IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ALTHOUGH EVEN THAT'S BEEN CUT DOWN IN PLACES YOU CAN SEE IT'S TURNED A LITTLE BIT DRIER IN OREGON. PARTS OF MICHIGAN AND THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL. GOING BACK A MONTH YOU CAN SEE HOW THINGS WERE ALREADY THERE IN MOST OF THE PLAIN STATES CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BUT IT HAS GOTTEN A LITTLE BIT WORSE IN PLACES NOT WORSE IN OTHERS. AND THAT'S BEEN THE CASE WITH THESE SCATTERED AT TIMES THUNDERSTORMS THAT WE'VE BEEN SEEING. SO LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT THE BIG PICTURE. WE CONTINUE TO SEE A RIDGE USUALLY DOMINATING MOST OF THE WEST. WE HAVE THIS CUT OFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. COUPLE OF SPOTS CAN SEE A SHOWER UNDER THAT BUT NOT IN GENERAL. THEN YOU CAN SEE THE STORM SYSTEM OR A TROUGH KIND OF MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AGAIN. IT'S GOING TO PICK UP A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY THE WAY WHICH IS GOOD NEWS FOR SOME OF THOSE DROUGHT AREAS AND THAT'S GOING TO FINALLY START TO MOVE IT EASTWARD AS WE HEAD THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BUT YOU'LL NOTICE IT'S A SLOW MOVING TROUGH. SO IT ALL THOSE CUTS OFF A LITTLE BIT AGAIN AND THEN WE SEE ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING IN AND MAYBE CUTTING OFF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEKEND. KIND OF A STRANGE PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH THESE CUT. BUT THE RIDGE HOLDS MOST OF THE TIME IN THE WEST SO LET'S GO DAY BY DAY ON MONDAY WE'LL SEE THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL CAUSING SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA. A WEAK SYSTEM COMING JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER AND THEN HERE'S THAT SYSTEM COMING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE PRETTY WIDESPREAD AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THERE EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MORE SCATTERED UP AND DOWN THE EAST COAST IN THE SOUTHWEST. THIS AREA MOVES VERY SLOWLY BUT IT HAS A DECENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SO HOPEFULLY IT SITS OVER MISSOURI A WHILE IT MAY GIVE SOME OF YOU FOLKS SOME DECENT RAINS FOR A CHANGE. HIT AND MISS IN THE SOUTHWEST AND ALSO IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. THAT SYSTEM FINALLY INTO THE WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. PRETTY GOOD RAINS ACROSS THE OHIO TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH THAT ONE THE WAY IT LOOKS COOL FRONT COMING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AND AGAIN HIT AND MISS IN THE SOUTHWEST. HERE'S MY OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 30 DAYS GOING ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ALL OF NEW ENGLAND ABOVE NORMAL ALSO FROM WESTERN MONTANA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST UNTIL YOU GET TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA NEAR NORMAL THEY'RE BELOW NORMAL THOUGH FROM KANSAS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST PRECIPITATION. BOY DO WE HOPE THIS HAPPENS AT LEAST IN THE AREAS THAT NEED IT ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST ALL THE WAY BACK INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BELOW NORMAL NORTHERN MONTANA NORTHWARD THE REST OF THE COUNTRY GOING NEAR NORMAL TYNE THANKS, MIKE. 

TEASE
WHEN WE COME BACK, WERE ON THE ROAD TO NORBORNE, MISSOURI-- KNOWN AS THE SOYBEAN  CAPITAL OF HTE WORLD-- FOR THIS WEEK'S MARKETING  DISCUSSION. MATT BENNETT AND CHIP NELLINGER TALK  MARKETS IN THE SHOW-ME STATE NEXT.  

ROUNDTABLE 1
IT'S ALWAYS A PRIVLEGE TO GET BACK TO MY HOME STATE OF MISSOURI- BUT THIS TIME, WE WERE INVITED  TO NORBORNE, MO- THE HOMETOWN OF MY GRANDMA--  ONE OF HTE WOMEN IN MY LIFE WHO TAUGHT ME THE  DEFINITION OF HARD WORK THROUGH EXPAMPLE. IT'S THE TOWN'S SESEQUINTENNIAL CELEBRATION AND  WE WERE HAPPY TO JOIN IN THE FESTIVITIES TALKING  ABOUT WHAT ELSE? SOYBEANS.  WELCOME BACK TO US FARM REPORT THIS WEEKEND. IT'S A  TREAT BECAUSE WE ARE AT THE SOYBEAN CAPITAL OF THE WORLD FOR THE NORTHERN SOYBEAN FESTIVAL A BIG THANKS TO MISSOURI SOYBEAN  MERCHANDISING COUNCIL FOR HAVING US OUT TODAY. BUT WE HAVE TO  START TALKING ABOUT SOYBEANS I MEAN HERE WE ARE AT THE SOYBEAN  CAPITAL OF THE WORLD DRIVING AROUND. YOU KNOW THEY'RE DRY HERE IN  NORTHERN MISSOURI DRY IN THESE SURROUNDING AREAS. YET THE BEANS ARE GREEN THEY LOOK LIKE THEY HAVE SOME POTENTIAL BUT THEY NEED  RAIN. AND MATT I KNOW THAT'S THE CASE IN A LOT OF STATES RIGHT NOW  THESE CROPS LOOK TO BE BOUNTIFUL BUT THEY REALLY NEED THE RAIN RIGHT NOW. ABSOLUTELY. BUT WE ALWAYS TRY TO ENCOURAGE  PRODUCERS. REMEMBER SOYBEANS ARE AN AUGUST CROP AND SO A  LITTLE BIT OF STRESS TO SOYBEANS ISN'T SUCH A BAD THING THE ONLY THING IS THE CHICKEN AND NEED RAIN AT SOME POINT AS WE TRY TO FILL  PODS AND SO AS WE GO THROUGH THE MONTH OF AUGUST OBVIOUSLY  WEATHER IS BEING WATCHED VERY CLOSELY. I DO THINK THERE ARE SOME GOOD THINGS ABOUT THE SOYBEAN MARKET I UNDERSTAND THAT WE'VE  BEEN BEAT UP SOMEWHAT THIS SUMMER BUT YOU KNOW FOR INSTANCE  I DO THINK THAT THEU.S. IS GOING TO BE ABLE TO EXPORT A FAIR AMOUNT  OF SOYBEANS AT SOME POINT IN THIS YEAR. I MEAN WE'VE ALREADY NOT  FELL OFF AS MUCH AS WE THOUGHT WE WOULD. BUT BRAZIL'S GET AROUND AS SOYBEANS PROBABLY BEFORE WE'RE DONE HARVESTING. AND SO IN  THAT CASE THEY'RE GOING TO HAVE TO COME TO US FOR BEANS.  AT THE SAME TIME YOU LOOK AT THIS MARKET RIGHT NOW AND I  MEAN THE ISSUES THAT WE HAVE GOING ON WITH TRADE DOES THAT  TRUMP EVERYTHING I MEAN ARE WE IN A WEATHER RALLY. NOT IN THE  CARDS THIS YEAR FOR SOYBEANS. NO I WOULD ARGUE THAT POSSIBLY EVEN TODAY WE START OF THE WEATHER RALLY. YOU KNOW I MEAN  OBVIOUSLY WE'RE SITTING HERE IT'S IN THE MID 90S IT'S GOING TO BE HOT  IN A LOT OF PLACES FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS TWO WEEKS. MATT MENTIONED IT WE NEED SOME RAIN A LOT OF AREAS EVEN IN ILLINOIS  WHERE WE'VE HAD ENOUGH RAIN AND A LOT OF SPOTS. WE'RE GOING TO  NEED ANOTHER RAIN TO FINISH THAT CROP OUT. SO I THINK IN A CERTAIN  EXTENT MAYBE WE'RE STARTING TO HAVE THIS BEAN MARKET FOCUS ON  WEATHER OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. OBVIOUSLY THE TRADE ISSUES. YOU KNOW YOU COULD GET A TWEET OR TWO OR THREE A DAY THAT SWING  THE BEAN MARKET BACK AND FORTH PROBABLY 25 CENTS BUT I THINK  YOU GO BACK A COUPLE OF WEEKS AND WE HAD THAT REALLY NEGATIVE YOU KNOW TWEET ABOUT IT IS GOING TO TAROF ALL 500 BILLION DOLLARS  WORTH OF EVERYTHING THAT CHINA BRINGS IN HERE. AND THE MARKET  HELD TOGETHER SO THAT TELLS ME THAT WE HAVE DIGESTED MAYBE THE THE WORST OF THE OF THE TRADE ISSUE AND LIKE MIKE SAID YOU KNOW  EVENTUALLY CHINA IS GOING TO HAVE TO BUY THE BEANS THERE'S  NOWHERE ELSE FOR THEM TO GET IT. BUT AT WHAT POINT I MEAN REALISTICALLY WHEN DOES CHINA HAVE TO COME TO THE MARKET THE  BOMBING WHEN WOULD BRAZIL RUN OUT AND CHINA WOULD BE FORCED  TO COME TO US.  YOU KNOW I THINK THE THING THAT WE HAVE TO REMEMBER IS  THAT THEY CAN PLAY HARDBALL FOR A WHILE. RIGHT. BUT WHENEVER YOU HAVE 57 PERCENT OF THE WORLD'S PIGS YOU GET 450 MILLION HEAD OF  PIGS THEY GET TO EAT EVERY DAY AND I KNOW THEY'RE TALKING ABOUT  WE WANT TO LOOK AT ALTERNATIVE PROTEIN. WE WANT TO LOOK AT SOME DIFFERENT FEED IN MY OPINION THAT'S MOSTLY RHETORIC BECAUSE WE  KNOW THAT YOU KNOW THE BEST BANG FOR OUR BUCK IS GOING TO BE  WITH SOYBEAN MEAL AND SO ABSOLUTELY THE CHINESE AT SOME POINT  ARE GOING TO HAVE TO COME TO THE MARKET AND I'VE SAID ALL ALONG  THE CHINESE WILL BE BUYINGU.S. SOYBEANS. THEY JUST MAY BE  BUYING OFF OF SOMEONE OTHER THAN THEU.S. YOU KNOW THERE'S THIS  TRUMP TARIFF AID PACKAGE THE 12 BILLION DOLLAR STILL WAITING ON  DETAILS HERE IN PAYMENTS THAT COULD START COMING OUT IN  SEPTEMBER. BUT A LOT OF TALK ABOUT THAT. NOT A LOT OF DETAILS THAT WE KNOW AT THIS POINT. DO YOU THINK IT'S ARTIFICIALLY IMPACTING THE  MARKET AT THIS POINT JIM. WELL I DON'T THINK IT IS YET BECAUSE WE  DON'T HAVE THE DETAILS AND IT'S JUST SPECULATION AT THIS POINT.  THERE'S BEEN A LOT OF YOU KNOW WE'RE GOING TO GET 50 CENTS A  BUSHEL GOING TO GET A DOLLAR A BUSHEL. THERE'S REALLY BEEN NOTHING OUT OF WASHINGTON. MY FEAR THOUGH IS THAT THE BIGGER  THAT IS AND NOT THAT I WANT TO SEE ANYONE YOU KNOW ON THE  FARMING SIDE SUFFER. BUT MY FEAR IS THAT THE BIGGER THAT IS THE  MORE THAT MAY ARTIFICIALLY INCENTIVIZE PLANTING BEANS NEXT YEAR.   AND YOU KNOW MY HOPE IS THAT THEY GET THE TARIFF ISSUE  STRAIGHTENED OUT SOME TIME HOPEFULLY BY OCTOBER 1ST OR  SOMETIME BY THE END OF HARVEST. AND WE DON'T HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT THAT WHEN WE GET BACK TO A FREE MARKET. I THINK THAT'S WHAT  EVERYONE WANTS THAT'S THE BEST. BUT I UNDERSTAND THERE'S A LOT OF  MOVING GEARS IN THERE AND THERE'S A LEGITIMATE CONCERN ABOUT SOME OF THE TRADE ISSUES THAT WE'VE HAD WITH CHINA FOR A LONG  LONG TIME. HE AND SOME OF THAT UNCERTAINTY WHEN IT COMES TO  THOSE PAYMENTS MATT TODAY IS IT HANDCUFFING PRODUCERS FOR MAKING SOME OF THOSE THOSE THOSE PRICE DECISIONS. WELL I THINK  THE HARD THING FOR PRODUCERS TO HEAR THAT SORT OF RHETORIC COMING  OUT OF WASHINGTON YOU KNOW ABOUT THIS IS WHAT THE THREE STEP  PLAN IS GOING TO BE DIRECT PAYMENTS BEING ONE OF THOSE AND THEN  YOU HEAR WHISPERS FROM PLACES IN THE TRADE. I DON'T KNOW WHERE IT'S COMING FROM. AS CHIP ALLUDED TO BE 50 CENTS IT MIGHT BE A  DOLLAR RIGHT. AND THEN THIS PAST WEEK WE HAVE A RALLY IN THE  SOYBEAN MARKET WHERE NOVEMBRE BEANS ARE IN EXCESS OF 920  AND THINK A PRODUCER SITTING THERE SAYING HEY IF I GOT A DOLLAR A  BUSHEL I GOT 10 20 BEANS. I'M GETTING BACK CLOSER TO TEN DOLLARS  OUT OF THE FIELD. THAT'S A PRETTY ATTRACTIVE PRICE TO LOOK AT. SO ABSOLUTELY I THINK THAT IT'S IT MAKES A LITTLE BIT HARD ON THE  PRODUCER RIGHT NOW. BUT CHIP REAL QUICK IF YOU HAVE OLD CROP  BEANS THAT YOU STILL HAVE A HOLD OF WHAT CAN YOU DO AT THIS POINT. WELL YOU KNOW IF GOT TO MOVE THEM YOU KNOW MOVE THEM.   THE BASIS IS VERY GOOD RIGHT NOW REAL AND THEM ON I MEAN I THINK THAT MAYBE IN SOME LIMITED RISK JUST AS EASY AS BUYING  CALLS. SO YOU WANT THAT LONG TERM OWNERSHIP IF WE GET THIS THING  FIGURED OUT COULD BE A DOLLAR UNDERPRICE ON BEANS OR MORE. ALL RIGHT WE NEED TO TAKE A QUICK BREAK BUT WE DIDN'T TALK CORN WE  DIDN'T TALK CATTLE WE HAVE A LOT MORE COMING HERE ONU.S. FARM  REPORT. PLEASE STAY WITH US. >

JOHN’S WORLD
IT'S TIME NOW TO STEP INTO JOHN'S WORLD, AS HE JOINS US FROM TEH FARM. JOHN.  I KNOW I HAVE TALKED BEFORE ABOUT MY ATTRACTION TO SELF-SERVICE  TRANSACTIONS. FROM ON-LINE BANKING TO ONE-CLICKING ON AMAZON TO  SELF-CHECKOUT AT KROGER, AN INCREASING PROPORTION OF MY COMMERCE WITH THE WORLD IS DONE WITHOUT PERSON-TO-PERSON  CONTACT. THE LATEST CHANGE HAS BEEN HOW I SELL MY GRAIN. ON-LINE  MARKETING IS NOT NEW, BUT ONLY IN THE LAST YEAR HAVE I USED IT MUCH.  THIS WEEK, I CALLED UP MY ELEVATOR TO ASK ABOUT GETTING BIDS FOR THE 2019 CROP AVAILABLE TO SELL ONLINE, SINCE THE FARTHEST-OUT  POSTED OFFER WAS MID-SUMMER 19. THE REPRESENTATIVE WAS VERY HELPFUL, AND FOR SOME REASON I APOLOGIZED TO HER FOR NOT CALLING  TO SELL GRAIN. I WANTED HER TO KNOW IT WASN'T ANYTHING THEIR  MARKETING PEOPLE HAD DONE. I JUST FIND I AM MORE COMFORTABLE LOOKING AT THE NUMBERS AT ODD HOURS AND I THINK I AM MORE LIKELY  TO ACTUALLY SELL SOMETHING WHEN IT CAN HAPPEN ANYTIME, LIKE 9  PM. OR SUNDAY MORNING. I ALSO WORRY THAT I WILL MISSPEAK AND  SELL MORE OR LESS FOR THE WRONG DELIVERY PERIOD OR SOME OTHER  SILLY MISTAKE. OR THAT I WILL MUMBLE AND BE MISUNDERSTOOD. WORST  OF ALL, AS I DICTATE MY MARKET ORDER, I OFTEN THINK, "I BET SHE HAS A  MILLION BETTER THINGS TO DO THAN HOLD MY HAND FOR 2000 BUSHELS OF  CORN." ALL OF THIS IS SILLY, BECAUSE I HAVE NEVER EXPERIENCED ANY  IMPATIENCE OR DISCOURTESY FROM MY ELEVATOR PERSONNEL.  NONETHELESS, I GET AN ODD FEELING OF BEING LESS OF A BURDEN BY HANDLING IT ONLINE. WHICH MAKES ME WONDER IF THERE IS A  FEEDBACK LOOP HERE. THE LESS BUSINESS I DO WITH OTHER HUMANS,  THE LESS COMFORTABLE I AM WITH PERSONAL INTERACTIONS. WHEN YOU BEGIN AS A PERSON WHO HATES STOPPING TO ASK FOR DIRECTIONS,  ONLINE COMMERCE IS A SLIPPERY PATH TO AN ODD TYPE OF BUSINESS  ISOLATION. IN THE PROCESS, OUR SKILLS IN WORKING WITH PEOPLE ON ANY  TRANSACTION FROM CHURCH COMMITTEES TO CAR REPAIR CAN ATROPHY.  THE WORLD MAY BE GETTING MORE ECONOMICALLY EFFICIENT, BUT UNLESS WE FIND WAYS TO REPLACE THAT HUMAN CONTACT IN BUSINESS,  IT COULD ALSO BE EMOTIONALLY DEFICIENT,

TEASE
THANKS, JOHN. WHEN WE COME BACK, IT'S A CLASSIC TRACTOR,   SIX-GENERATIONS STRONG. A SHOW-ME  STATE TRACTOR TALES IS NEXT.  

TRACTOR TALES
WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES, FOLKS. THIS WEEKEND WE'RE HEADING BACK TO THE SHOW-ME  STATE, WHERE DARRYL WATERS SHOWS OFF A GEM HE FOUND IN A HEDGE ROW ON ONE OF THEIR FARMS. AND AFTER SOME T-L-C, THIS JOHN DEERE A FROM THE 30S  IS IN PRIME CONDITION IN HOPES HE CAN KEEP IT  AROUND FOR GENERATIONS TO COME.  WE BROUGHT FOUR TRACTORS AND THEY'RE ALL DIFFERENT. MY FAVORITE IS A  1935 A JOHN DEERE AND IT'S BEEN IN THE FAMILY FOR SIX GENERATIONS. GRANDPA DAVIS HE LIVED DOWN AROUND THE SUGARFREE  HERE. THEY FARM DOWN THERE. HE BOUGHT IT. THEN IT WENT TO MY  UNCLE WARREN DAVIS AND HE USED IT TO FARM WITH THEN IT WENT TO MY MOTHER AND THEN MY MOTHER GAVE IT TO ME AND WE STILL HAVE  MORE GENERATIONS TO COME. IT WAS SUDDEN AND A HEDGE ROW. IT  HAD A HEDGE. LAMB THAT BIG AROUND LAND ACROSS THE GAS TANK  AND THE HOOD AND THE STIRRING ROD WAS BENT. SLATE IT HAD SOME  ANALYSTS STUCK AND NOBODY MESSED WITH IT FOR 30 YEARS PROBABLY.  MY DAD HELPED ME WITH IT. WE WORKED ON IT ONE ENTIRE WINTER. WE HAD FUN. THAT'S A VERY RARE TRACTOR. THAT'S AN EARLY 35 MODEL. I  STARTED MAKING A JOHN DEERE IN 1934 AND ANYBODY THAT COLLECTS  JOHN DEERE KNOWS WHAT AN OPEN FIRE CHEF DAY IS AND THEY'RE REALLY REALLY HARD TO FIND. I LIKE IT MORE EVERY YEAR. I USE A TRACTOR  PULL WITH IT BEFORE I KNEW WHAT I HAD AND THEN I REALIZED WHAT I  HAD. SO WE PRETTY MUCH QUIT THE TRACTOR PULL AND WITH IT. YEAH I  HANDED DOWN ONE OF THESE DAYS. IT WON'T BE WORTH IT TO THEM  BECAUSE I'M GOING TO TELL THEM TO NEVER SELL IT. SO IT'S REALLY A BARGAIN INSTEAD OF SOMEONE MIGHT WANT IT AND I THINK IT'LL GET  TAKEN CARE OF. THANKS SO MUCH. 

TEASE
UP NEXT, WE HEAD BACK TO THE  SHOW-ME STATE WHERE IT'S MORE THAN JUST  DROUGHT PLAGUING AREA FARMERS. AND IT'S A BATTLE ENGULFED IN A LAWSUIT AGAINST THE U-S ARMY CORPS  OF ENGINEERS. OUR FARM JOURNAL REPORT IS ENXT.  

FARM JOURNAL REPORT
MORE THAN 40 PERCENT OF MISSOURI'S CORN CROP IS IN POOR TO VERY POOR CONDITION. AS FAREMRS COME TO GRIPS WITH THE REALITY OF  DROUGHT STRICKEN CROPS, IT'S AN ONGOING BATTLE  WITH TEH U-S ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS THAT  WOUND UP IN COURT.  AND IT'S A FIGHT OVER FLOODING  THAT WILL ULTIMATELY TAKE AACT OF CONGRESS TO CHANGE. <THE BEAN PLANTS HAVE SET MOST OF THEIR PODS RIGHT NOW> FOR MISSOURI FARMER DANIEL CARPENTAR,  <YOU PULL A POD OFF THE LOWER NODES ADN THEIR STARTING TO FILL OUT  PRETTY WELL> IT'S A YEAR OF HURDLES... <REALLY GOING TO NEED SOME RAIN TO PUSH THOSE PODS, THAT BEAN  SIZE A LITTLE LARGER> AND THE BIGGEST HURDLE IS RAIN.  <IF YOU LOOK AT A LOT OF THESE EARS ON THE OUTSIDE, THEY ARE FILLED OUT QUITE WELL>BUT IT'S A BATTLE AGAINST MORE THAN JUST  MOTHER NATURE FACING FARMERS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER  BOTTOMS... <THIS BEING WHERE THE WATER DISCHARGES AND HERE'S OUR PUMP> IT'S A BATTLE OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER FARMERS LIKE LANNY FRAKES- FACE EVERY YEAR.  <AND QUITE FRANKLY OUR PROBLEMS CAN BE 300 MILES AWAY FROM  HERE IN THE GAVINS POITN DAM SYSTEM THAT RELEASES RUN OFF  BETWEEN HERE AND THERE THAT WE HAVE NO CONTROL OVER> FRAKES SAYS THE RISKS OF FARMING HERE ARE  BECOMING MORE POWERFUL YEAR AFTER YEAR.  <"SINCE 2004 WE'VE HAD MORE PROBLEMS,"  "THE RIVER DOESN'T  CARRY THE WATER THAT IT USED TO COMES UP REALLY FAST >FRAKES NOTICED THE VAST CHANGED IN NOT ONLY THE  WAY THE RIVER FLOWED, BUT HOW IT ROSE WITHOUT  WARNING. <"I THINK EARLY ON I DIDN'T REALLY KNOW FOR SURE WHAT WAS CAUSING  IT," "I JUST THOUGHT THERE'S SOMETHING DIFFERENT. > HE SAYS SINCE 2004, THE MISSOURI RIVER ROSE  HIGHER-- STAYED UP LONGER-- AND DIDN’T DISCHARGE  AS FAST.   HE'S WITNESSED THE MISSOURI RIVER JUMP OVER 10  FEET IN JUST 24 HOURS... EVEN IN YEARS WHERE THERE  WASN'T AN ABUNDANCE OF RAIN.  AND OTHER YEARS, WATER CREPT UNDERGROUND,  DROWING THE CROPS FROM THE BOTTOM UP.   <WHEN PEOPLE THINK OF FLOODING, THEY THINK I THINK A LOT OF PEOPLE THINK ABOUT WATER GOING COMPLETELY OVER THE TOP OF THE LEVEE OR  BREACHING THE LEVEE AND GUSHING IN," . "FOR US, LOSING CROPS CAN  BE JUST A MATTER OF SATURATED SOILS WHERE WE CAN'T PLANT THAT LAND  OR IF THE LAND IS PLANTED AND THE RIVER LEVELS COME UP, THEN IT  DAMAGES THE CROP WE'RE NOT ABLE TO SPRAY IT, CARE FOR IT, AND IT ENDS UP REDUCING YIELDS.> IT'S AN ISSUE THAT CAUGHT THE ATTENTION OF KANSAS  CITY BASED POLSINELLI LAW FIRM. AND IT ALL CAME TO  A HEAD WHEN A GROUP OF FARMERS FILED A LAWSUIT  AGAINST THE U-S ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS OVER  THE WAY THE CORPS MANAGES THE RIVER. .  THE PLAINTIFFS INCLUDED 372 FARMERS, LANDOWNERS AND BUSINESS OWNERS... ONE OF WHICH WAS FRAKES.  <"I'M A FOURTH-GENERATION FARMER ON THIS LAND,". "WE HAVE A 37- YEAR-OLD SON AND HIS FAMILY THAT FARMS WITH US, AND I WANT HIM TO  HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO FARM THIS LAND TO THE BEST OF HIS ABILITY  AND NOT BE CONSTRAINED BY HOW THE CORPS RUNS THE RIVER,"> IT'S THAT MOTIVATION THAT FUELED THE PLAINTIFFS'  CASE. <"WE STARTED THE INVESTIGATION INTO THIS IN 2013, AND FOR OVER A  YEAR BEFORE WE FILED THE LAWSUIT, WE INVESTIGATED THIS BECAUSE  WE WANTED TO MAKE SURE, BEFORE WE WENT IN THE LAWSUIT AGAINST  THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AND ALLEGE THAT THEY HAD TAKEN OUR  CLIENT'S PROPERTY, THAT THAT WE HAD A VIABLE CAUSE OF ACTION,"> HE SAYS THE BASIS OF THE LAWSUIT WAS THAT THE  PLAINTIFFS EXPERIENCED ATYPICAL AND RECURRENT  FLOODING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER FOR SEVERAL  YEARS, THREATENING THEIR LIVLIHOODS. AND IT'S A CLAIM SENIOR JUDGE NANCYH FIRESTONE IN  FAVOR OF IN MARCH..  <"OUR CLIENTS WERE VERY PLEASED WITH THE RESULT," SAID WRIGHT. "IT  WAS A VICTORY FOR THEM IN A DAY MANY OF THEM HAD WAITED FOR, FOR  OVER A DECADE. AND IT WAS GOOD FOR WHAT THEY HAD THOUGHT ALL ALONG: THAT THE MISSOURI RIVER HAD CHANGED."> THAT RULING MARKS PHASE 1 OF THE LAWSUIT. PHASE  2 IS JUST MONTHS AWAY AND WILL DETERMINE IF THE PLAINTIFFS WILL GET COMPENSATED FOR THOSE  LOSSES. IT'S "JUST COMPENSTATION" THAT'S THE BASIS  OF HTE LAWSUIT... .  <"IT'S THEIR  CONSTITUTIONAL RIGHT -  BASED UPON THE FIFTH  AMENDMENT OF THE UNITED STATES CONSTITUTION - THE GOVERNMENT  CAN'T TAKE YOUR PRIVATE PROPERTY WITHOUT JUST COMPENSATION," THE COMPENSTATION PIECE  IS SET TO BE CONSIDERED  BY THE COURT THIS FALL.   <WE'D LIKE TO THINK RIGHT NOW IT'S A MATTER OF WHEN THEY WILL GET COMPENSATED, AND SOME OF THESE CLIENTS HAVE FLOODING DATING  BACK TO 2007," SAID WRIGHT. "SO, FOR OVER A DECADE, THEY WAITED  FOR THIS COMPENSATION FROM THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT. AND IT'S  TIME.> HOWEVER, IT'S NOT JUST THE FINANCIAL PAIN THAT'S  THE MOTIVE FOR FRAKES. HE ALSO WANTS TO SEE  CHANGE-- CHANGE THAT WILL TAKE AN "ACT OF CONGRESS" TO CREATE. <"I THINK THAT'S WHAT OUR CLIENTS WOULD REALLY LIKE TO SEE, AS WELL IS  A CHANGE IN THAT PRIORITY BACK TO FLOOD CONTROL," > ITS' CHANGE THAT'S BEEN A MISSION FOR MISSOURI  CONGRESSMAN SAM GRAVES. PRIOR TO THE LAWSUIT,  GRAVES SAYS HE FOUGHT TO GET THE PROIORITY OF  THE U-S ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS CHANGED.  <"THE FACT THAT WE HAVE SPENT LITERALLY HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS OF  DOLLARS TRYING TO CARRY OUT VARIOUS ACTIVITIES, WHICH INCLUDES LAND ACQUISITION AND CONSTRUCTION OF THESE SHALLOW WATER HABITATS TO  HELP SUPPOSEDLY OR THEORETICALLY HELP THE RECOVERY OF SPECIES  LIKE THE PALLET STURGEON, PIPING PLOVER, AND WE'VE SEEN ABSOLUTELY  NO SUBSTANTIAL NO GAIN FROM IT," SAID GRAVES. "NOBODY CAN POINT TO ANY TO ANY RECOVERY THAT HAS TAKEN PLACE YET.">  HE SAYS FISH AND WILDLIFE SHOULDN'T BE A PRIORITY  FOR THE AGENCY'S MANAGEMENT PLAN... THE TOP  CONCERN SHOULD BE NAVIGATION AND FLOOD CONTROL.  <"FINALLY, WITH THIS RULING, WE'RE GETTING SOME REAL INTEREST IN  THIS," SAID GRAVES. "THE RULING IS GOING TO IT'S GOING TO MAKE ALL  THE DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD BECAUSE OBVIOUSLY IT AS THE CORPS  WAS COMPLICIT IN IN SEVERAL OF THOSE FLOODS."> IT'S A COURT RULING TURNING THE TIDES OF RIVER  MANAGEMENT, WITH SOME FARMERS HOPING IT  THE LAWFIRM SAYS IT'S STILL DETERMINING IF IT'S GOING TO BRING FORTH ANOTHER CASE, ULTIMATELY  ALLOWING OTHER FARMERS TO JOIN THE LAWSUIT  AGAINST THE ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS. 

TEASE
UP NEXT, WE'RE BACK IN MISSOURI TO TALK CORN, CATTLE AND MORE.  

ROUNDTABLE 2
WELCOME BACK TO THE THE CAPITAL OF THE WORLD TALKED A LOT ABOUT THE WAY THINGS IN OUR  FIRST ROUNDTABLE DIDN'T HIT ON CORN YET. YOU KNOW MATT YOU LOOK AT  CROP CONDITIONS FOR MISERY'S CORN CROP WERE SETTING TODAY. A THIRD  IS RATED POOR TO VERY POOR. WHEN YOU GOT INTO THIS AREA YOU KNOW  I KNOW YOU'RE IN AN AREA THAT'S BEEN BLESSED WITH RAINFALL BUT WHEN YOU MOVED INTO MISSOURI DID YOUR OPINION ABOUT THIS YEAR'S  CORN CROP CHANGE. YES TO AN EXTENT. THE THING THAT I NOTICED AS I  GOT OUT INTO SOME FIELDS I MEAN YOU KNOW THE DRIVE BY AND  ANYBODY CAN DO THAT. IT'S GOING TO LOOK BETTER FROM THE ROAD.  EVERYBODY KNOWS YOU GET OUT IN THE MIDDLE OF A FIELD AND YOU  START TO RUN INTO SOME ISSUES. AND ALSO A LOT OF POLLINATION ISSUES SMALLER YEARS AND YOU KNOW A COUPLE OF FIELDS THAT I LOOKED AT  WERE PROBABLY 40 TO 50 BUSHEL LESS THAN WHAT I WAS MAYBE  EXPECTING TO SEE WHENEVER I CAME TODAY. SO YEAH I DEFINITELY  HAVE SOME CONCERNS. IT'S FRUSTRATING AT THIS STAGE OF THE GAME OF  CORN CROPS FAR ENOUGH ALONG THE RAINFALLS PROBABLY NOT GOING TO  DO ANY GOOD FOR THIS CORN GROW AND CHIP I TALKED TO SOME LOCAL FARMERS HERE AND THEY'VE HAD SOME INSURANCE ADJUSTERS OUT AND  SOME PEOPLE ARE TALKING ABOUT YIELDS 30 10 BUSHELS PER ACRE  FOOT FOR THEIR CORN CROP I MEAN JUST A VERY DISHEARTENING SITUATION HERE IN MISSOURI WHERE THEY SAW YOU KNOW BETTER THAN EXPECTED  YIELDS RECORD YIELDS IN SOME PLACES LAST YEAR.  SO THAT HAS TO IMPACT THE NATIONAL YIELD THAT IN SOME WAY.  YEAH I WOULD THINK AND WE'RE GOING TO BE DEBATING THAT AS WE ALWAYS DO TILL JANUARY. I AGREE I THINK NOT JUST NOT JUST MISSOURI.  MISSOURI'S WAY BELOW A YEAR AGO I THINK IOWA IS A STATE NOT AS  GOOD AS A YEAR AGO. INDIANA WON'T BE BECAUSE NORTHERN INDIANA IS ABOUT AS TOUGH AS RIGHT HERE MICHIGAN. HORRIBLE. ILLINOIS MIGHT  BE THE BRIGHT SPOT. PROBABLY A RECORD CORN CROP BUT YOU HAVE TO  ASK YOURSELF. IT'S JUST NOT AS CONSISTENT A CROP AS IT WAS A YEAR AGO. MAYBE THE MARKETS A LITTLE AHEAD OF ITSELF IN 177 178 IS NOT  A DISASTER BUT IT MAY NOT MATTER IT MAY COME DOWN MORE TO THE  WORLD CARRY OUT AND THE EUROPEAN AND BLACK SEA CROP THAN IT  DOES OUR CROP EVEN IF ITS RECORD CHIP BRINGS UP A GOOD POINT MATT  LOOKING AT THE WORLD CROP I MEAN WHAT IS THAT TELLING US. ARE WE  RUNNING INTO TIGHT SUPPLIES. YEAH WE'RE RUNNING IN TYPES FLIES IT THIS CHIP SAID THERE'S DEFINITELY ISSUES. WHENEVER YOU GET INTO  THAT REGION ONE THING I'D LIKE TO POINT OUT I DON'T KNOW IF  EVERYBODY UNDERSTANDS THAT YOU KNOW YOUR WORLD CARRY OUT  SITUATION AS OF THIS LAST SEPTEMBER FIRST YOU'RE LOOKING AT ABOUT  230 MILLION METRIC TON OF CORN. THE FORECAST FOR THIS NEXT YEAR  DEPENDING ON HOW THEU.S. CROP IN THE CROP ENDS UP IN THE EU AND UKRAINE YOU'RE STILL LOOKING AT AROUND 150 MILLION METRIC  TONS. YOU'VE DROPPED 230 DOWN TO 150 INTO MARKETING YEARS  USAGE IS PHENOMENAL. THE THING IS IS THAT A LOT OF PRODUCERS IN PARTS OF THE WORLD  HAVE SAID IN THE LAST COUPLE OF THREE YEARS I DON'T KNOW IF I MAKE  AS MUCH MONEY IN AND THEY BACKED OFF JUST A LITTLE BIT AT A TIME WHEN EVERY DEMAND IS NOTHING TO GET BIGGER. THEN WHY DON'T WE  SEE CORN PRICES RESPONDING TO THAT YET. WHAT IS WHAT'S KIND OF  HANGING OVER THE CORN MARKET RIGHT NOW KEEPING IT FROM TRADING HIGHER. I THINK YOU ARE SEEING IT. YOU KNOW WHAT WITH TODAY'S  CLOSE 35 ALMOST 40 CENTS OFF THE LOWS FROM TWO AND A HALF THREE  WEEKS AGO. I THINK PART OF IT IS YOU KNOW THERE'S A SPREAD HERE BETWEEN CORN AND BEANS AND THE WEAKNESS IN BEANS I THINK  PROBABLY IS HOLDING CORN BACK TO A CERTAIN EXTENT. BUT THAT CAN  ONLY BE SO LONG. YOU KNOW IF THAT DEMAND CONTINUES LIKE MATT SAID AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS AND NOT ONLY CORN BUT WORLD WHEAT  STOCKS ARE SHRINKING MAYBE DRAMATICALLY. IT'S A DIFFERENT  BALLGAME. SO WE'LL DIVORCE OURSELVES FROM THE MARKET EVENTUALLY. WHAT IS IT GOING TO TAKE WHEN WE LOOK AT NAFTA. MAYBE SOME  POSITIVE DISCUSSIONS GOING ON WITH MEXICO. WHAT IF WE DO GET A  BILATERAL DEAL WITH MEXICO. WE KNOW THAT COULD BE POSITIVE FOR CORN. IS THAT WHAT THE CORN MARKET NEEDS RIGHT NOW. WELL I THINK  IT'S CHEVIES SAYING THE CORN MARKET IS ACTUALLY A LITTLE BIT BETTER  SHAPE THAN IF YOU WOULD HAVE SAID IN THE LAST COUPLE THREE YEARS  WE'RE GOING TO HAVE WHISPERS OF 180 BUSHEL NATIONAL YIELD YOU  PROBABLY WOULDN'T HAVE SEEN THE CORN MARKET REACT AS WELL AS IT HAS THIS SUMMER ALREADY.  SO I FEEL LIKE THE CORN MARKETS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE DO I  THINK THAT THE CORN MARKET COULD GO AHEAD AND MOVE HIGHER.  ABSOLUTELY I THINK THAT WE'RE SUPPORTIVE AND I THINK THAT IF YOU KEEP ANYTHING UNDER 180 YOU'RE PROBABLY GOING TO BE LOOKING  LONG TERM AT A REALLY GOOD SITUATION FOR CORN IS GOING TO HELP.  ABSOLUTELY. I THINK ANY ANY POSITIVE MOVEMENT IN SOYBEAN PRICES DUE TO TRADE RHETORIC IS ABSOLUTELY GOING TO HELP AS WELL. RIGHT.  AND CHIP WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE CATTLE CHARTS AND YOU LOOK AT HOW  CATTLE PRICES HAVE HAVE TURNED IT HIGHER I MEAN CAN THAT CONTINUE THINK CONTINUE FOR THE SHORT RUN JUST BECAUSE PACKER MARGINS ARE  SO GOOD THE FEEDLOTS HAVE KIND OF LEVERAGE RIGHT NOW CLOSE REALLY  WELL. I THINK IT CAN CONTINUE FOR THE SHORT RUN BUT I'M FEARFUL LONGER  TERM YOU KNOW YOU'VE GOT ESSENTIALLY NEW CONTRACT LOWS EVERY  DAY IN WEEK AND HOGS THAT COULD BECOME A LITTLE BIT OF A  HEADWIND AS A COMPETITIVE MEAT SOURCE HERE DOMESTICALLY REALLY  QUICK. WHEN YOU LOOK FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD AND YOU LOOK AT Q4  ARE YOU CONCERNED ABOUT PRICES WHEN WE GET TO THAT TIMEFRAME. I THINK ON FARTHER OUT MAYBE THAN THAT I WOULD BE MORE  CONCERNED. I THINK THAT A LOT OF PRODUCERS I'M TALKING TO ONE THING  THAT THEY LIKE TO SEE IS THAT THERE'S CARRYING IN THIS CATTLE MARKET  THIS FAT CAT MARKET FINALLY THERE FOR SUCH A LONG TIME WITH THEINV.  MARKET IT HAS PUT THEM IN A BOX. BUT I THINK A LOT OF PRODUCERS LOOK AT SOME OF THESE DEFERRED CONTRACTS AND THEY CAN ACTUALLY  MAKE MONEY WHEREAS THEY COULDN'T MAYBE THREE FOUR MONTHS  AGO.   ALL RIGHT WELL THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US FROM THE  NORBORNE SOYBEAN  FESTIVAL A BIG THANKS TO MISSOURI SWABIAN  MERCHANDISING COUNCIL FOR HAVING US OUT. I HOPE YOU'VE ENJOYED  THE MARKETING ROUNDTABLE AGAIN I APPRECIATE BOTH OF YOU MAKING  THE TREK OUT HERE. STAY WITH US. WE HAVE MUCH MORE ONU.S.  FARM REPORT WHEN WE COME BACK.  

AMERICAN COUNTRYSIDE
WELCOME BACK.  IT'S THE BIRTHPLACE OF AVIATION... WITH TWO VERY  WELL-KNOWN MEN WHO HAD STRONG HOOSIER ROOTS.  AMERICAN COUNTRYSIDE TAKES FLIGHT THIS WEEKEND  IN INDIANA.  IT APPEARS TO BE JUST AN OLD FARMHOUSE FROM THE 1800S, BUT ON  APRIL 16, 1867 AN EVENT TOOK PLACE HERE THAT MADE THIS HOME A  PLACE VISITORS STILL COME TO TODAY.  IT'S SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE THIS IS WHERE HE WAS BORN. THIS IS THE  BIRTHPLACE OF FLIGHT.    JACK SHANK IS SPEAKING OF THE BIRTHPLACE HOME OF WILBUR WRIGHT,  THE THIRD OF SEVEN CHILDREN BORN TO MILTON AND SUSAN WRIGHT.  MILTON WRIGHT WAS OFTEN GONE FROM HOME TO ATTEND TO HIS DUTIES  AS A BISHOP IN THE UNITED BRETHREN CHURCH. AS THE FAMILY GREW AND MOVED TO OTHER HOMES IN THE AREA, WILBUR AND ORVILLE'S  TALENTS BECAME APPARENT WHEN THE FAMILY VISITED OTHER FAMILIES  ON SUNDAYS.  THE BOYS AFTER THEY GOT FINISHED EATING THE BOYS WOULD GO OUT TO  THE BARNS AND MESS AROUND AND SOMETIMES THEY WOULD TAKE SOME OF THE FARM EQUIPMENT APART AND THEN WHEN THEY LEFT THE  FARMER WOULD GET AHOLD OF THEM SOMEHOW AND THEY'D TAKE THE  KIDS BACK AND SHE'D SIT DOWN AND THE KIDS WOULD HAVE TO PUT IT BACK TOGETHER, THAT'S ORVILLE AND WILBUR. SUSAN WRIGHT WAS FROM A FAMILY OF CARRIAGE MAKERS IN  PENNSYLVANIA. SHE DID NOT TELL ORVILLE AND WILBUR HOW TO PUT THE EQUIPMENT BACK TOGETHER, BUT HELPED THEM LEARN HOW MACHINERY  WORKED. EVEN SUSAN'S DISCIPLINE OF THE CHILDREN MAY HAVE  PREPARED THEM FOR THEIR INVENTIVE FUTURES. WHEN THEY GOT ORNERY SHE WOULD PUT THEM IN A ROOM, A CLOSET, BUT THE CLOSET HAD BOOKS AND A WINDOW AND THEY HAD TO STAY IN  THERE AND READ AS PUNISHMENT. JACK SHANK, BOARD CHAIRMAN,  WILBUR WRIGHT BIRTHPLACE, HAGERSTOWN, INDIANA  PERHAPS IT WAS ALSO A GIFT THAT THE FATHER MILTON GAVE TO THE BOYS.  IT MAY HAVE LED TO AN IDEA THAT WOULD BE ON THEIR MINDS FOR THE  REST OF THEIR LIVES.  HE USED TO BRING TOYS HOME TO THE KIDS AND WHAT REALLY GOT  WILBUR AND ORIVLLE STARTED WAS A LITTLE BITTY AIRPLANE THING THAT YOU  JUST SPIN AND IT WOULD GO UP IN THE AIR AND THAT'S WHAT GOT THEM  STARTED. THE YOUNG BOYS WERE FASCINATED BY THE WAY THE BLADES COULD LIFT  THE TOY INTO THE AIR, CAUSING IT TO FLY. IN DECEMBER OF 1903 THE  WRIGHT BROTHERS AIRPLANE FLEW AT KITTY HAWK, NC. IT WAS JUST THE  BEGINNING OF A LIFE PERFECTING THE PLANE. ALTHOUGH THE WRIGHTS  LIVED IN THIS HOME BUT FOR A SHORT TIME, THE FARMSTEAD AND ADJACENT MUSEUM TELLS THE STORY OF THE FAMILY AND THE FAMOUS  BROTHERS. AN EXACT REPLICA OF THAT FIRST PLANE IS HERE, ALONG WITH A  NEWER VERSION TO REMIND US OF HOW THAT ORIGINAL IDEA GREW. YOU  HAVE TO DRIVE A BIT OFF THE BEATEN PATH TO GET HERE, BUT MANY DO…VISITORS WHO  SOMETIMES TRAVEL A VERY LONG WAYS TO SEE THIS PLACE.  ALL OVER THE WORLD. WE'VE HAD THEM FROM GERMANY, CHINA,  RUSSIA, JAPAN, POLAND, THEY COME HERE FROM ALL OVER THE WORLD AND IT'S PART OF THEIR BUCKET LIST. YOU CAN STILL TRAVEL THESE COUNTRY ROADS TO THE OLD FARMSTEAD  WHERE WILBUR WRIGHT WAS BORN. THIS IS THE PLACE WHERE HE TOOK  HIS FIRST STEPS ON A LIFE THAT WOULD BRING US THE FIRST FLIGHT. TRAVELING THE COUNTRYSIDE…IN MILLVILLE, INDIANA, I'M ANDREW  MCCREA. YOU CAN HEAR MORE OF AMERICAN COUNTRYSIDE'S  TRAVELS BY VISITING AMERICAN COUNTRYSIDE DOT  COM. 

TEASE
WHEN WE COME BACK, IS HTE 12 BILLION DOLLAR TARIFF AID PACKAGE FOR FARMERS REALLY AID?  CUSTOMER SUPPORT IS NEXT  

CUSTOMER SUPPORT
A RECENT FARM JOURNAL PULSE SURVEY FOUDN LESS THAN 50 PERCENT OF FARMERS SAY THEY'LL SIGN UP  FOR THE 12 BILLION TARIFF RELIEF AID PACKAGE.  THAT'S BASED ON TEH INFORMATION THEY KNWO  TODAY. AND IT'S THAT FINANCIAL AID THAT'S THE TOPIC OF  CUSTOMER SUPPORT.  FROM BILL NEWELL IN MAYSVILLE, KENTUCKY: I AM UNHAPPY WITH THE WAY THE MEDIA IS REFERRING TO THIS $12  BILLION DEAL AS FARM AID OR FARM WELFARE. TRUMP HAS STARTED, OR  MAYBE I SHOULD SAY ESCALATED ECONOMIC WAR WITH CHINA.  I DON'T  THINK MUCH OF IT, BUT IT IS BETTER THAN MILITARY WAR AND THE CARNAGE  THAT COMES WITH THAT. I WOULD PREFER TO CALL THE MONEY COMBAT  PAY SINCE WE FARMERS HAVE BEEN DRAFTED TO FIGHT THE WAR. IF THIS  IS WELFARE, THEN SO IS THE PAY GIVEN TO OUR MILITARY PERSONNEL. BILL, THANK YOU FOR YOUR FEEDBACK. COMBAT PAY IS MORE CORRECTLY  CALLED IMMINENT DANGER PAY, AND IS $225 PER MONTH FOR MILITARY  PERSONNEL SERVING IN HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTS. THERE IS ALSO A COMBAT PAY EXCLUSION - EXEMPTION FROM INCOME TAX - FOR SERVICE  MEMBERS DURING THEIR TOURS IN SUCH PLACES. I CANNOT FIND MUCH OF  A SIMILARITY BETWEEN THAT COMPENSATION AND SENDING ME SEVERAL THOUSAND DOLLARS BECAUSE I BELIEVED SELLING SOYBEANS TO  CHINESE CUSTOMERS WAS SOMETHING I COULD PLAN ON INTO THE  FUTURE. I COULD HAVE TAKEN SEVERAL ACTIONS THAT OUR MARKET GURUS ADVOCATED EVERY WEEK TO PROTECT PROFITS. MY LIFE IS NOT AT RISK,  AND IF I AM OFFENDED BY THE LABEL SUCH PAYMENTS ARE GIVEN, I CAN  ALWAYS REFUSE THE MONEY. I THINK THE USING OF THE LANGUAGE OF WAR TO DESCRIBE A COMMERCIAL, POLITICAL DISPUTE IS CONFUSING AND  DEMEANING TO THOSE IN UNIFORM. AS FAR AS FARMERS BEING  "DRAFTED", I HAVE CLEAR, PERSONAL MEMORIES OF THAT PROCESS FROM 1970, AND THIS ISN'T ANYTHING LIKE THAT. THANKS, JOHN. IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS FOR JOHN,  EMAIL HIM AT MAILBAG DOT COM. 

TEASE
UP NEXT, IT'S A CHURCH CELEBRATING 150 YEARS BY GETTING BACK TO IT'S GERMAN ROOTS. FROM TEH  FARM IS NEXT 

FROM THE FARM
TO END THE SHOW, WE HAVE A COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE, TO A CHURCH PREPARING TO CELERBATE 150  YEARS TROUGH A MAJOR RENOVATION.  IT'S A STEEPLE, CHURCH AND CONGREGATION THAT'S A  STAPLE IN THIS COMMUNITY OF 600.  <THIS CONGREGATION WAS FORMED IN 1869. SO IT WILL BE CELEBRATING  ITS SESEQUICENTIAL NEXT YEAR> A CHURCH THAT DUG ITS ROOTS JUST AFTER HTE  COMMUNITY DID.  <THE BUILDING WE WERE IN WAS BUILT IN 1890>> IT'S A CHURCH TAHT SHOWED IT'S AGE... WITH A  COMMUNITY STEPPING UP IN THE FORM OF MUCH  NEEDED T-L-C.  <IT STARTED MAYBE 5 YEARS AGO.  WE TALKED ABOUT RENOVATING THE  JESUS STATUE, NOT KNOWING WHERE IT WOULD BE GOING FROM THERE > BUT IT'S THIS LATEST TRANSFORMATION HELPING TO  REVAMP THE BEAUTY OF A BUILDING NEARLY 130 YEARS  <THE RENOCATION THAT YOU SEE NWO WAS ONE THAT WAS COMPLETED  JUST ABOUT 8 MONTHS AGO > THE RENOVATION THIS TIME WAS FOCUSED ON NOTONLY THE OUTSIDE, BUT INSIDE THESE WOODEN DOORS.  WHERE THE CHURCH WORE COLORS AND FEATURES  THAT REPRESENTED A LOOK FROM THE 1960S.  <WE HIRED AN ARCHITECT WHO SPECIALIZES IN TRADITIONS CHURCH ARCHITECTURE THE GOAL WAS TO GET BACK TO THE CHURCH'S  HERITAGE... A CHURCH FORMED BY GERMAN  IMMIGRANTS. <AND ASKED HIM TO GIVE US A PLAN THAT WOULD MAKE THE BIN SIDE  LOOK LIKE 19TH CENTURY GERMAN LUTHERAN CHURCH >  FROM REFINISHING THE PEWS WITH RETRO COLORING... TO PUTTING IN NEW FLOORS, THE CHURCH CAME WITH  A NEW LOOK.  <AND THAT'S KIND OF WHAT WE WERE AFTER, GETTING BACK TO THE  ORINIGAL CURCH> WHILE STILL KEEPING CORNERSTONE PIECES OF THE  PAST.  <THE BAPTISMAL FONT WAS WITH THE ORGINICAL BUILDING IN 1890, THE  ALTER BEHIND ME IS AN ORIGINCAL PIECE WITH THE 1890 CHURCH. > OVERALL, IT WAS A JOB THAT WAS NO EASY TASK...  <WE ENDED UP TEARING THE CEILING COMPELTELY OFF, > WITH ALL LOCAL PEOPLE PUTTING IN THE LABOR AND  SKILL FOR THE CUSTOM WORK.  <AND GOOD WORK TOO> WORK THAT SIGNIFIES THE COMMITTMENT OF THE  CHURCH...  <I THINK THE REMODELING ACUTALLY WAS AN INDICATION FO THE FEELING  THAT THERE IS A FURTURE FOR THIS CONGREGATINO AND THIS COMMUNITY> WITH THE CONGREGATION'S  PRAISE OF THE WORK IS  SHINING THROUGH...  <I'M IMPRESSED (LAUGHS) IF YOU HAVE A PICTURE OF VIDEO YOU'D LIKE TO SEND  IN, SEND THOSE TO MAILBAG-AT-U-S-FARM-REPORT-DOT- COM OR CHECK US OUT ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER. 

CLOSE
FROM ALL OF US AT U.S. FARM REPORT, I'M TYNE MORGAN.  THANK YOU FOR WATCHING U-S FARM REPORT.  BE SURE TO JOIN US RIGHT HERE AGAIN NEXT WEEK, AS  WE WORK TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION. HAVE A GREAT  WEEKEND, EVERYONE.  

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