USFR Weekly Recap - August 25-26, 2018

August 25, 2018 03:30 AM
 

TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
AUGUST 25-26, 2018


HEADLINES
WELCOME TO THIS SPECIAL EDITION OF U.S. FARM REPORT FROM THE  PROFARMER MIDWEST CROP TOUR.. I'M TYNE MORGAN, AND HERE'S WHAT'S IN  STORE OVER THE NEXT 60 MINUTES.  FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST... CROP TOUR SCOUTS WERE ON THE QUEST THIS WEEK TO GROUNDTHURTH USDA'S RECORD CORN YIELD PROJECTION THIS YEAR. TRADE TAKING CENTER STAGE IN WASHINGTON... FROM TRADE TALKS TO DETAILS  ON TARIFF RELIEF AID.  MEET A YOUNG KENTUCKY FAMILY FARMING THROUGH ONE OF THE GREATEST  CHALLENGES IN LIFE... AND THE REALITY SHAPING HOW THEY FARM TODAY.  AND IN JOHN'S WORLD.  

NEWS
NOW FOR THE NEWS THAT MOVED THE MARKETS THIS WEEK...AND MUCH OF  THAT STARTING RIGHT HERE ON CROP TOUR. AS SCOUTS FANNED OUT ACROSS THE CORN BELT, MARKETS WATCHING  CLOSELY. WITH EACH NIGHT OF RESULTS ADDED PRESSURE TO BOTH CORN AND SOYBEAN MARKETS. PROFARMER USING CROP TOUR DATA - ALONG WITH OTHER FACTORS - TO PUT OUT ITS FINAL EXPECTED YIELDS.ON CORN, PROFARMER SAYS THERE'S A 14 POINT 5 BILLION BUSHEL CROP--WITH AN AVERAGE YIELD OF 177 POINT 3. THAT'S BELOW USDA'S AUGUST PROJECTION OF A RECORD 178 POINT 4 BUSHEL PER ACRE YIELD AND A 14.6 BILLION BUSHEL CROP. PRO FARMER STRESSES THEIR PROJECTION IS PLUS OR MINUS ONE PERCENT.

ON SOYBEANS, PRO FARMER SETTLING ON A YIELD PROJECTION OF 4 POINT 683 BILLION BUSHELS...WITH AN AVERAGE YIELD OF 53 BUSHELS TO THE ACRE.IN AUGUST..USDA PEGGED THE CROP AT 4 POINT 59 BILLION BUSHELS AND AVERAGE YIELDS OF 51 POINT 6. PRO FARMER SAYS THEIR SOYBEAN NUMBER IS PLUS OR MINUS 2 PERCENTAGE POINTS. WHILE SCOUTS SPENT THE WEEK ESTIMATING THE SIZE OF THE NATION'S CORN  AND SOYBEAN CROPS, TRADE DELEGATIONS FROM THE U.S. AND CHINA MET IN  WASHINGTON.  DUTIES ON ANOTHER $16 BILLION WORTH OF  CHINESE GOODS TOOK EFFECT  THURSDAY. CHINA IMMEDIATELY RETALIATED WITH IT'S OWN LEVIES OF AN EQUAL AMOUNT, INCLUDING STEEL AND CARS.  THE NEW U.S. TARIFFS COME ON TOP OF $34 BILLION IMPOSED IN JULY.   TRADE TALKS CENTERING AROUND A LIST OF REQUESTS FROM THE TRUMP  ADMINISTRATION. HOWEVER, BOTH SIDES DOWNPLAYING EXPECTATIONS OF ANY RESOLUTION. THE U.S. ALSO HOLDING HEARINGS ON A ANOTHER $200 BILLION IN TARIFFS THIS  WEEK. DETAILS AROUND USDA'S TRADE AID PACKAGE ROLLING OUT THIS WEEK. HERE'S WHAT WE KNOW SO FAR ABOUT THE ROUGHLY 10 TO 12 BILLION DOLLARS  WORTH OF ASSISTANCE. EARLY ESITMATES PUTTING AID PAYMENTS FOR SOYBEAN FARMERS AT $1.65 PER  BUSHEL AND 1 CENT PER BUSHEL FOR CORN FARMERS. THAT REPORT FROM AGRI-PULSE. AGRI-PULSE SAYS OFFICIALS STRESS THAT THOSE NUMBERS COULD CHANGE  WHILE THE PACKAGE IS REVIEWED AND MAY NOT REFLECT THE FINAL.  USDA WOULD NOT CONFIRM OR DENY THESE PROPOSED PAYMENT RATES. AS FAR AS DETAILS GO... SIGNUPS ARE SLATED TO BEGIN SEP. 4. FARMERS WILL HAVE TO FILE 2018 CROP PRODUCTION DATA WITH USDA.   PAYMENT RATES WILL BE BASED ON ACTUAL 2018 PRODUCTION.  THE PLAN IS LIMITED TO 2018 CROPS-- NOT 2017 CROPS STILL TO BE MARKETED.QUALIFYING HOG PRODUCERS  WILL LIKELY BE ASKED TO CERTIFY PRODUCTION  AND/OR INVENTORY TO USDA.  CONTRACT HOG PRODUCERS WOULD NOT QUALIFY FOR  PAYMENTS BECAUSE  THEY DO NOT OWN THE HOGS. MEANWHILE IN CHINA, PORK IMPORTS FROM CHILE, THE EUROPEAN UNION (EU)  AND OTHERS ARE ON THE RISE AS COSTS FROM THE U.S. INCREASE DUE TO  TARIFFS.  THAT'S ACCORDING TO COFCO MEAT HOLDINGS  REUTERS ALSO REPORTING A MAJOR CHINESE PIG FARM SAYS A BIG PORTION OF  ITS NEWLY EXPANDED PIG FARMING CAPACITY IS IDLE, DUE TO RISING FEED  COSTS INCLUDING SOYMEAL.   CHINA ALSO CONTINUING TO DEAL WITH A MAJOR OUTBREAK OF AFRICAN SWINE  FEVER. IT'S NOW BEEN REPORTED AT ROUGHLY A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS IN FOUR  PROVINCES IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. CHINA HAS A POPULATION OF MORE THAN 430 MILLION HOGS, MANY RAISED ON  SMALL FARMS WITH MINIMAL BIOSECURITY. OFFICIALS SAYING THE OUTBREAK IS REALLY A VERY SERIOUS ISSUE...AND  COULD CREATE A THREAT FOR THE REST OF THE WORLD. THE U.S. AND MEXICO NEARING A DEAL ON THE REMAINING ISSUES IN NAFTA THIS  WEEK. NAFTA NEGOTIATOR FOR THE NEWLY ELECTED MEXICAN PRESIDENT SAYS AN  AGREEMENT IN PRINCIPLE WITH MEXICO IS IMMINENT. MEXICAN TRADE SOURCES SAY A MAJOR STICKING POINT SEEMS TO BE  SETTLED...AS THE U.S. HAS DISCARDED NEW TRADE PROTECTIONS FOR U.S.  SPECIALTY CROP GROWERS. THE FLORIDA FRUIT AND VEGETABLE ASSOCIATION SAYS SPECIALTY CROP SECTORS IN FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST CAN'T SURVIVE WITHOUT RECOURSE  AGAINST MEXICO'S DUMPING AND SUBSIDY PRACTICES. MEXICO SAYS THE PROVISION ONLY HELPS A SMALL NUMBER OF GROWERS. ONCE A DEAL IS STRUCK ATTENTION TURNS BACK TO TRILATERAL NEGOTIATIONS  WITH CANADA. AND A DAIRY FARM IN IOWA FINDING ITSELF IN THE MIDST OF A NATIONAL MURDER INVESTIGATION. A FORMER DAIRY WORKER HAS BEEN CHARGED WITH THE ABDUCTION AND  DEATH OF MISSING IOWA COLLEGE STUDENT MOLLIE TIBBETTS. CRISTHIAN BAHENA RIVERA (CHRISTIAN BUH-HAY-NUH RIVERA) IS A MIGRANT  WORKER - IN THE COUNTRY ILLEGALLY - NOW CHARGED WITH THE CRIME. HIS FORMER EMPLOYER - YARRABEE FARMS OF BROOKLYN, IOWA - SAYS RIVERA  WORKED FOR THE FARM FOR FOUR YEARS...AND WAS A "GOOD" EMPLOYEE. FARM MANAGER DANE LANG SAYS RIVERA PRESENTED AN OUT-OF-STATE GOVERNMENT-ISSUED PHOTO IDENTIFICATION AND A MATCHING SOCIAL  SECURITY CARD WHEN HE WAS HIRED IN 2014. LANG SAID THE FARM RAN THE INFORMATION THROUGH THE SOCIAL SECURITY  ADMINISTRATION'S EMPLOYMENT VERIFICATION SYSTEM AND IT CHECKED OUT.  BUT THE FARM DID NOT USE THE VOLUNTARY E-VERIFY SYSTEM. THAT'S IT FOR THE NEWS. 

TEASE
WHEN WE COME BACK, COOLER WEATHER HIT MUCH OF THE COUNTRY THIS WEEK, BUT WHEN WILL SUMMER MAKE A COMEBACK?  PLUS, BREAKING DOWN THE PROFARMER CROP TOUR RESULTS STATE BY STATE  WITH SCOUTS WHO GOT THEIR BOOTS MUDDY THIS WEEK, CHECKING THE YIELD  IN TEH FIELD. 

WEATHER
METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH WEATHER... MIKE, MUCH OF THE COUNTRY SEEING A COOL-DOWN THIS  WEEK. WELL THANKS TYNE, WELL AT TIMES IT WILL DEFINITELY RAIN. AS YOU'LL SEE COMING UP WE'RE GOING TO  HAVE A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY. EITHER ONE OF THOSE  COULD HAVE PRETTY GOOD THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACES. NOW SOME PLACES WOULD LOVE THESE  THUNDERSTORMS MORE THAN OTHERS OBVIOUSLY NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOME OF THE SURROUNDING AREAS DOWN INTO TEXAS. BUT YOU'LL NOTICE HOW SPLOTCHY IT IS THROUGH THERE. IT'S NOT LIKE  EVERYBODY THROUGH THE PLAINS IS VERY DRY BUT THERE ARE PLACES WHERE IT'S EXTREME TO  EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT. BUT A COUPLE OF COUNTIES AWAY YOU'RE DOING JUST FINE. AND SO IT'S BEEN A HIT AND MISS TYPE THING. UNFORTUNATELY THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ARE REALLY  DRIEST AREA CONTINUES TO BE THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. OREGON'S DRY AND UP ALONG THE CANADIAN  BORDER HAS BEEN GETTING A LITTLE DRIER AS WELL AS NORTHERN MICHIGAN. LET'S GO BACK A MONTH. YOU CAN SEE HOW IT REALLY DIDN'T LOOK A WHOLE LOT DIFFERENT IT HAS GOTTEN A LITTLE BIT WORSE AND  SOME OF THE NORTHERN PLACES WE'VE SEEN SOME OF THE YELLOW AREAS ARE SLIGHTLY DRY AREAS  EXPAND BUT THEN THEY'VE SHRUNK BACK UP AGAIN. SO BASICALLY WE HAVEN'T SEEN A HUGE CHANGE  OVER THE PAST MONTH ACROSS THE COUNTRY. SO LET'S CHECK THE PATTERN NOW. YOU CAN SEE WE HAVE A RIDGE NOW COMING INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AT LEAST AS WE HEAD INTO  THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK THEN THE TROUGH TRIES TO COME BACK IN.  BUT YOU'LL NOTICE IT REALLY DOESN'T DIG IN.  I THINK WE'RE SEEING ANOTHER PATTERN CHANGE AS WE  HEAD INTO SEPTEMBER AND THAT'S GOING TO KEEP A LOT OF THE COUNTRY A LITTLE BIT WARMER THAN  NORMAL AS YOU'LL SEE COMING UP ZONAL FLOW AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. AND WITH THE REDS TRYING TO BUILD BACK UP AGAIN FOR THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND. SO  ON MONDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY WITH THAT  AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HITTING MIST DOWN SOUTH. THAT FIRST FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WE HEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY  LINGERING THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS YOU CAN SEE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT. AND THEN  ON FRIDAY A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS ONE IN SOUTHERN CANADA ANOTHER ONE IN THE WESTERN LAKES WITH SOME AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE HIT AND MISS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND  ALSO IN THE SOUTHWEST. HERE'S MY OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 30 DAYS AND GOING ABOVE NORMAL FOR A  GOOD CHUNK OF THE COUNTRY MOST OF THE EAST MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI  VALLEY NORTHERN PLAINS AND OUT WEST PARTS OF WEST TEXAS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES 30 TO OUTLOOK FOR PRECIPITATION AND NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST  OF THE CORN BELT. THAT'S A TOUGH CALL OBVIOUSLY THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. BELOW NORMAL THOUGH FOR  THE GULF COAST. COASTAL TEXAS INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL FROM  NEBRASKA KANSAS THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS WHICH WOULD ALL BE GOOD NEWS FOR A LOT OF THAT AREA BACK INTO THE FOUR CORNER REGION. NOW THERE'S IS NOT A LOT OF RAIN IN THOSE AREAS THIS TIME  OF THE YEAR ESPECIALLY THE DESERT AREAS BUT NONETHELESS ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED BELOW  NORMAL THEN FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF CANADA TIME. 

TEASE
THANKS, MIKE. WHEN WE COME BACK, IT'S THE PROFARMER CROP TOUR LEADS  AND CHIP FLORY JOINING ME FOR AN IN-DEPTH DISCUSSION ON CROP TOUR  FINDINGS THIS WEEK... OUR MARKETING ROUNDABLE IS NEXT. 

ROUNDTABLE 1
WELCOME BACK TO THIS SPECIAL EDITION OFU.S. FARM REPORT. AS I PROMISED SOME SCOUTS THAT WERE OUT IN THE FIELD SOME THAT SAW THE DATA FIRSTHAND OVER CROP OR THIS YEAR. SOME  SURPRISES THIS YEAR TO TALK ABOUT. BRIAN LET'S START WITH YOU. I MEAN IF ANY OF THE SPECTATORS OF TO TOUR WERE  WATCHING DISAPPOINTMENT THE FIRST DAY THEY DID NOT GET IT IN OHIO OR SOUTH DAKOTA. DEFINITELY NOT. YOU KNOW OHIO WAS UP 9 PERCENT JUST OVER 9 PERCENT IN TERMS OF YIELDS WE  PULLED OUT OF THERE. AND HONESTLY IT'S THE BEST OHIO CORN CROP I'VE SEEN EVER ON CORRUPTOR. YES BETTER THAN OTHER STATES COMPARED TO WHAT THE NORMAL IS YES. IT WAS MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN INDIANA WAS  MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN ILLINOIS. AND JUST STEP BACK FOR A MOMENT AND ABSORB THAT OHIO'S CORN  CROP WAS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE. DO YOU EVER THINK YOU'LL SAY THAT AGAIN. PROBABLY NOT JUST SOUTH DAKOTA. I MEAN YOU LOOK AT THOSE YIELDS THAT CAME OUT THOSE CORNFIELDS THAT CAME OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA. IMPRESSIVE CROPS THERE THIS YEAR. SO MOST OF TIME I GO ON THE EAST TOUR AND I TOLD  CHIP WHEN I CAME OUT HERE I WANT TO SEE WHAT 170 BUSHEL CORN YIELD IS. AND IT IS GOOD IN THAT  SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF SOUTH DAKOTA THAT WE MEASURED. BUT THERE'S A BIG PART OF THE STATE THAT STILL GROWS A LOT OF CORN. AND IT IS DRY IT IS VERY DRY UP THERE. SO WHAT WE MAY HAVE MEASURED IN THAT LITTLE 3 DISTRICT AREA SOUTH DAKOTA  WHILE VERY GOOD AND VERY HIGH YIELDING THERE'S A LOT MORE THAT STATE THAT MAY DRAG THAT NUMBER  DOWN. AND THE FINAL ANALYSIS WELL AND THEN ON THE WEST HAS SCOUTS THEN WENT DOWN TO NEBRASKA AND LOOKING AT USDA PROJECTIONS WE KNEW THAT NEBRASKA WAS GOING TO BE GOOD. RIGHT. IS IT  AS GOOD AS WHAT USDA THINKS IT DOES. EVERYBODY WHEN WE THINK ABOUT NEBRASKA WE THINK  ABOUT IRRIGATED CORN MOVING THE NEEDLE PULLING THE THE YIELD IN NEBRASKA TO THE UPSIDE THAT'S NOT HOW NEBRASKA WORKS  IRRIGATED CORN DOESN'T REALLY MOVE THE NEEDLE IN NEBRASKA IS THE DREILING CORN THAT MAKES A DIFFERENCE IT'S  40 PERCENT OF THE PRODUCTION IN NEBRASKA AND IT'S PUSHING IT FROM THE BOTTOM SIDE OF YOU. IT'S  TOUGH TO TELL THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN IRRIGATED CORN AND DRYLAND CORN IN NEBRASKA THIS YEAR IT'S VERY IMPRESSIVE. SCOUTS WERE IN NEBRASKA. YOU WERE IN INDIANA WADING THROUGH FIELDS OF WATER A  FOOT HIGH. I MEAN THEY JUST GOT PUMMELED WITH RAIN THE DAY THAT YOU WERE OUT SCOUTING BRIAN. YES  THEY DID. AND YOU KNOW IT ISN'T LIKE THEY NEED THAT EXTRA MOISTURE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. I DON'T  THINK IT'S GOING TO HURT THEM. PROBABLY THE BIGGEST RISK RIGHT NOW WOULD BE IS IF TWO WEEKS  FROM NOW THREE WEEKS FROM NOW AS IT'S READY TO HARVEST AND WE'RE THAT CLOSE TO THE FINISH LINE  ON SOME OF THIS CROP THEN THEY GET THE HEAVY RAINS STOCK QUALITY ISSUES THINGS LIKE THAT THE ABILITY TO GET THE YIELD THAT'S OUT THERE THAT WE MEASURED TO THE BEAN IS PROBABLY THE BIGGEST  RISK I THINK AT THIS POINT IN TIME IT'S NOT FINISHING BECAUSE THE FINISH LINES IS RIGHT IN FRONT OF THAT CROP AND WE SAW SOME OF THAT LOTS OF  CORN IN THE EAST ALREADY.   I SOME OF THOSE WINDS THAT CAME THROUGH. DOES THAT CONCERN YOU  MOVING FORWARD.  YEAH IT DOES. YOU KNOW LODGING WASN'T A HUGE ISSUE BUT IT DOES CONCERN ME MOVING FORWARD FOR THOSE GUYS THEY NEED TO GET THAT CROP INTO THE BIN.  AND IN NEBRASKA I  KNOW YOU SAW SOME HAIL.  JEFF WAS IT ENOUGH TO REALLY EAT AWAY AT THOSE HE DIDN'T SEEM LIKE  IT WAS THAT WIDESPREAD. I WAS PRETTY IMPRESSED WITH THE NEBRASKA CROP OVERALL.  YOU KNOW WE'VE HAD SOME  CONVERSATIONS IN THE CARS AND IN THE GROUPS AND YOU KNOW NEBRASKA TYPE IOWA YIELDS THIS YEAR I DON'T KNOW. WE'LL SEE HOW THE IOWA CROP FINISHES BUT THEY'RE OUT THERE ON A GOOD POINT.  YOU MADE A GOOD POINT ABOUT THE DRYLAND CROP PUSHING IT UP EVEN IN THAT DRY AREA OF THE  SOUTH. IT'S IT'S DOING PRETTY WELL IS HELD UP. YOU KNOW THAT'S AN INTERESTING THING ABOUT NEBRASKA IOWA THOSE DRY  AREAS BUILT A YIELD AND SOMEHOW THEY FIGURED IT FIGURED OUT HOW TO HOLD ON TO SOME YIELD. WELL IN ILLINOIS WE HAD  SOME DRY AREAS THAT REALLY DIDN'T BUILD THAT YIELD THAT SHOWED SOME DISAPPOINTING RESULTS. BUT  OVERALL BRIAN WHAT DID YOU SEE IN ILLINOIS AN AREA THAT USDA HAS HIGH HOPES FOR THIS YEAR. WELL IT'S A VERY GOOD. ILLINOIS CORN CROP THAT'S WHAT WE MEASURED.  BUT YOU KNOW SO DON'T SHORT CHANGE IT ON THAT. BUT IT'S HIGHLY VARIABLE TOO. SO THE QUESTION  THEN BECOMES IF YOU HAVE A HIGHLY VARIABLE CROP CAN YOU GET TO A RECORD YIELD WHICH USDA IS PROJECTING 207 BUSHELS PER  ACRE. I DON'T KNOW IF YOU CAN GET THERE WITH A VARIABILITY LIKE THAT YOU HAVE TO HAVE THOSE  HIGHS BE REALLY REALLY HIGH AND THE LOWS CAN'T BE ALL THAT LOW AND THE HIGHS HAVE TO OUTNUMBER THE LOWS WELL IN IOWA AS WE MOVED INTO IOWA. NO WESTERN COVERED THE WESTERN PORTION. BRIAN YOU COVERED THE EASTERN PORTION. WE KNEW THAT PARTS OF IOWA WERE DRY. JEFF DID IT IMPACT THE  OVERALL YIELDS. I DON'T THINK IT DID. I MEAN IT MAY HAVE TRIMMED UP THE TOP END. THE THE ONE  THING I'LL SAY ABOUT THAT NORTH WEST QUADRANT. THERE ARE A LOT OF POTHOLES UP THERE. THERE'S A  LITTLE NEW LAKEFRONT AREA. AND SOME OF THOSE FIELDS AND YOU KNOW THERE'S GOING TO BE SOME LOST ACRES UP THERE AND THAT'S THAT'S HARD FOR US TO MEASURE. WE'RE JUST MEASURING HOW MANY  PLANTS AND THE RECOUNT AND HOW LONG THESE ARE SO IT COULD BE A SITUATION WHERE IT MIGHT DRIFT  DOWN A BIT. THE CENTRAL WEST IS GOOD THE SOUTH IS BETTER THAN EXPECTED. OK BUT WHAT IT CROPS YOU ARE A SCOUT SEE ON THE EASTERN PORTION OF IOWA AS WELL AS IN THE  WEST WHEN THEY GOT INTO MINNESOTA. WE'LL COVER THAT LATER ONU.S. FARM REPORT. PLEASE STAY  WITH US. 

JOHN’S WORLD
WELL, WILL THE RECENTLY PROPOSED RESTRUCTURING CHANGES IN  WASHINGTON IMPACT AGRIUCLTURE? JOHN PHIPPS WEIGHS IN.  IN WHAT CAN ONLY BE CALLED A SURPRISE MOVE ESPECIALLY TO THE EMPLOYEES INVOLVED THE  SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE ANNOUNCED PLANS TO MOVE THE USDA ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE THE IRS AND THE NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF FOOD AND AGRICULTURE NITTA OUTSIDE WASHINGTON. LET ME  PAUSE HERE TO ADMIT I HAD NO IDEA WHO NEITH WAS OR WHAT IT DOES. AND HERE'S A LITTLE  BACKGROUND. THE IRS IS A SMALL AGENCY WITH A BUDGET OF ABOUT 85 MILLION DOLLARS AND EMPLOYS ABOUT 330 PEOPLE MOSTLY ECONOMISTS WHO STUDY AND REPORT ON ECONOMIC  DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIAL ASPECTS OFU.S. AGRICULTURE. I USE THEIR WORK OFTEN AS A SOURCE AND  RECOMMEND FOLLOWING THEM ON SOCIAL MEDIA NEOPHYTE EMPLOYS ROUGHLY THE SAME NUMBER ABOUT 350 BUT HAS A BUDGET OF APPROXIMATELY ONE POINT SIX BILLION DOLLARS. THE BUDGET IS  MUCH LARGER BECAUSE ITS PRIMARY FUNCTION IS TO FUND ALL KINDS OF AG RELATED RESEARCH AT  UNIVERSITIES. SUPPORT EXTENSION AND ASSIST EDUCATION IN ALL THOSE TYPES OF AREAS. THE RANGE  OF WORK GOES FROM NUTRITION TO BIO ENERGY. PEOPLE WHO WORK AT THESE AGENCIES ARE UNDERSTANDABLY CONCERNED. A LOT OF LIVES ARE GOING TO BE DISRUPTED. UNDOUBTEDLY SOME WILL  CHOOSE NOT TO MAKE THIS MOVE FOR ALL KINDS OF REASONS. OBSERVERS HAVE SPECULATED THIS  COULD BE AN UNDERHANDED WAY TO COMBINE REDUCE OR REPOPULATE THE AGENCIES WITH POLITICALLY FAVORED EMPLOYEES. I CAN'T EVEN BEGIN TO SPECULATE ON THAT IDEA BUT LOOKING AT THE COST OF  LIVING IN WASHINGTON DC IT COULD BE THAT SOME VERY GOOD PEOPLE ARE NOT NOW WORKING THESE  JOBS BECAUSE THEY CAN'T AFFORD A HOUSE THERE OR HATE THE COMMUTE. WE'VE DONE THIS BEFORE  WHEN THE USDA MOVED THE FORESTRY SERVICE TO ALBUQUERQUE.  I SEE NO REASON WHY THIS DECISION COULD NOT BE SUCCESSFUL. IN FACT MOVING MORE AGENCIES  WITH SIMILAR MISSIONS OUT AVOIDS SINGTON STRIKES ME IS A GOOD IDEA. HOWEVER THE IDEA THAT  DECENTRALIZING GOVERNMENT WILL HELP NON URBAN AREAS IS LESS CONVINCING. WHILE IT'S TRUE THAT FEDERAL AGENCIES LIKE MILITARY BASES ARE A BIG BOOST TO LOCAL ECONOMIES. ERS AND NEFA WILL  ALMOST CERTAINLY WIND UP IN MID-SIZED CITIES THAT ARE ALREADY THRIVING. THE SECRET TO ECONOMIC  DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN APTLY SUMMED UP AS MED'S EDS AND FEDS SPREADING SPREADING THAT FEDERAL ECONOMIC CLOUT AROUND WILL HELP THANKS, JOHN. WHEN WE COME BACK, MINNESOTA'S OWN MACHINERY PETE  JOINS US FOR TRACTOR TALES THIS WEEK.  

TRACTOR TALES
HEY WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES FOLKS. THIS WEEK WE HAVE GOT A GREAT FAMILY TRACTOR STORY  TO SHARE WITH YOU THIS FORMAL SPENT MANY HOURS ON THE FARM. FORTUNATELY IT REMAINED A FAMILY  TRACTOR AND IS NOW WORKING WITH THE THIRD GENERATION OF THE FAMILY. 1953 FARM ALL SUPUR M RESTORED JUST A COUPLE OF YEARS AGO. IT'S ONE OF THE LATER SUPER MS SO HAS THE BATTERY BOX UNDER THE SEAT. IT'S GOT LIVE HYDRAULICS AND ALL THAT STUFF. THIS TRACTOR OF MY GREAT GRANDFATHER HE BOUGHT IT WHEN I WAS A YEAR OLD IN 1954 FROM A LOCAL  GUY THAT BOUGHT TWO FIFTY THREE SUPER MS. AND ACTUALLY THIS ONE WAS PURCHASED HERE AT THE  LOCAL TRACTOR DEALER AND INTERNATIONAL AID HUFFMAN'S. SO IT'S BEEN A LOCAL TRACTOR ALL OF ITS LIFE  THAT ACTUALLY WORKED OUT A DEAL AND HE WORKED THE TRACTOR OUT AS IT WORKED FOR GRANDPA FOR A SUMMER TO GET THE TRACTOR. WHEN I GRADUATED EIGHTH GRADE THE TRACTOR SITTING IN THE CORNER OF  THE SHED AND WASN'T AROUND AT THE TIME AND HE SAID YOU KNOW THAT TRACTOR NEEDS SOMETHING  DONE WITH THESE IF HE CAN GET IT RUNNING. YOU CAN HAVE IT. I'VE WAITED OVER AND POLISHED THE  POINTS AND CLEAN FILE. THE DISTRIBUTOR KAPILOW IT AND POURED FRESH GAS AND PULLED THE SWITCH  AND DIDN'T TURN OVER HALF OF CRANKING FIRE DRIED UP. I WAS PROBABLY 5 OR 6 YEARS OLD AND WE  WENT DOWN TO THE GREENVILLE TRACTOR SHOW AT THE FARM HERITAGE MUSEUM IN GREENVILLE AND THEY HAD A STADIUM AND I HAD DUALS ON IT AND I TOLD THEM THAT I SAID THAT'S NOT MY QUOTE ONE  DAY. WELL AT THE TIME I DIDN'T KNOW THIS TO END UP MINE AND WHEN IT ENDED UP MINE I RUN  ACROSS THE DUAL HUBS ON CRAIGSLIST. I HAD A SET OF FENDERS WITH IT SET INTO 3 INCH SHIRTS. IT WAS ONLY A LITTLE GAP BETWEEN THE SEATS SO YOU CAN'T COULDN'T HARDLY GET OFF THE SEAT WITH  THE FINGERS ON IT WITH THE LITTLE TRAIN. I TRADED DEFENDERS FOR A SET OF DUAL HOSTS THEN A LOCAL GUY HAD THE DUELS AND I WENT DOWN AND GOT THE DEALS OF ALL THE CARS WERE DONE SO DAN AND  GRANDPA HELPED ME CHANGE THE TYRES OVER ON THE DUALS. NOW WE'VE GOT PRETTY DECENT DEAL  TYRES ARE PRETTY DECENT INSIDE TIRES. IT'S THE ONLY THING I'VE GOT. THAT WAS MY GREAT GRANDPA SO  JUST KIND OF. IT WON'T EVER LEAVE THE FAMILY A GREAT "M." THANKS SO MUCH.  

TEASE
WELL, TEH PROFARMER MIDWEST CROP TOUR BOASTED BIG YIELDS TO KICK  THINGS OFF. BUT WHAT DID SCOUTS SEE AS THEY SEARCHED FIELDS IN TEH  HEART OF THE CORN BELT? THAT'S OUR FARM JOURNAL REPORT NEXT. 

FARM JOURNAL REPORT
AFTER USDA'S AUGUST REPORT, IT'S EVIDENT HTE AGENCY HAS HIGH HOPES FOR  THIS YEAR'S CROPS. SURVEY RESULTS BOASTED BIG YIELDS IN AUGUST,  PEGGING THE NATIONAL AVERAGE CORN YIELD AT A RECORD 178 POINT 4 BUSHELS PER ACRE. BEAN YIELDS ARE PEGGED AT 51 POINT 6. AND IT'S BIG  YIELDS THAT BLARED FROM CROP TOUR THE VERY FIRST DAY.  SCOUTS STARTED ON THE QUEST OF CROP TOUR EARLIER THIS WEEK. THEY WERE GREETED WITH RECORD  YIELDS. THOSE YIELDS SHOWING UP IN A BEAUTIFULLY CONSISTENT CROP IN OHIO.   WE HAD SOME GREAT HEAT UNITS THROUGHOUT THE SEASON AND IT JUST REALLY MATURED WELL HILLIARD  OHIO FARMER NEIL WEBER SAYS THIS SPRING A MAJORITY OF THE STATE'S CROP HIT THE GROUND IN JUST A  WEEK'S TIME. BUT DESPITE THE MAD DASH TO PLANT EASTERN LEG TO HER LEAD BRIAN GRADY SAYS IT'S  THE BEST OHIO CROP HE'S EVER SEEN WITH CROP YIELDS SHOWING 179 BUSHELS PER ACRE A 9 PERCENT JUMP FROM LAST YEAR.   THE AIR COUNTS ARE HIGH NOT SURPRISING BECAUSE USDA TOLD US THAT IN THEIR OBJECTIVE STATES  THEY HAD A RECORD YEAR COUNT BUT EVERY SINGLE SAMPLE WE'VE PULLED HAS BEEN DENTED CORN  AND SOYBEAN YIELDS THAT ALSO SURGED IN OHIO THIS YEAR WITH CROP TO HER FINDING OVERALL POT COUNTS SCENA A 12 PERCENT JUMP FROM 2017. BUT YOU CAN TELL THAT IT HASN'T HAD A LOT OF STRESS  AND AT THE TIMES WHEN IT WAS STRESSED IT PROBABLY HAD SOME MOISTURE RIGHT BEHIND IT ON THE  WEST. SCOUTS ALSO SEEN IMPRESSIVE YIELDS IN SOUTH DAKOTA.   WE SAW VERY UNIFORM CORN CROP THE YEAR SIZE WAS VERY VERY SOLID. WE HAD A GOOD STAND  GOOD POPULATIONS GOOD YEAR ACCOUNTS. I KNOW THEY'RE TALKING ABOUT US TEAM AND A GOOD CROP AND WHAT WE SAW TODAY. BACK THAT UP.   RANDOM SAMPLES OF SOUTH DAKOTA FIELDS FOUND A CORN FIELD UP 20 PERCENT OVER LAST YEAR AT ONE HUNDRED SEVENTY EIGHT BUSHELS PER ACRE.   SO THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL TO BE MADE THERE. AND WITH THE MOISTURE AND IF IT WILL IT SHOULD FINISH  RIGHT.  AS SCOUTS SEARCHED INDIANA ON TUESDAY.  IF YOU USE CONSISTENCY FOR A WORD IN OHIO VARIABILITIES PROBABLY MORE ACCURATE IN INDIANA IT'S VARIABILITY THAT'S MIXED IN WITH PLENTY OF MONEY THIS YEAR. THERE WERE A LOT OF WET FEET FOR THE SCOUTMASTER. IN INDIANA. WE'VE BEEN SEEING A LOT MORE BLOOD PRESSURE I WOULD SAY IN  INDIANA THAN USUAL.   AFTER WAITING THERE IN A FIELD SCOUT SAW AN INDIANA CROP SIX POINT FIVE PERCENT BETTER THAN LAST  YEAR'S CORN YIELD. THE FINDING WAS FOUR BUSHELS BELOW USDA CURRENT PROJECTIONS AS CROP SCOUTS SCOOTED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY 8 6.   IT'S AN AVERAGE CROP COMING TO LIGHT HAVING COME THROUGH THIS ROUTE LAST YEAR AS WELL. I THINK THAT WHILE THE YIELDS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT THEY HAVEN'T REALLY BEEN. THAT IS NOT NEARLY AS  GOOD AS THEY WERE LAST YEAR. IT'S A FAR CRY FROM USDA CURRENT PROJECTIONS SHOWING A RECORD CROP AND THE USDA NUMBERS OF 2 0 7 AND 64 YOU ALL OF A SUDDEN HAVE THIS 3 NOTION PRE- DETERMINED IDEA ABOUT WHAT THINGS WOULD LOOK LIKE AND IT'S A LITTLE BIT DISAPPOINTING.   PROFARMER DISCOVERING AN ILLINOIS CORN VEAL NEARLY 15 BUSHELS BELOW USDA CURRENT  PROJECTIONS. BUT IN NEBRASKA FIELDS REVEALED PROMISING YIELD WE SAW AGAIN IN SOUTH DAKOTA WE SAW VERY  SOLID NEBRASKA CORN CROP AGAIN E'RE SIZE WAS CONSISTENT YIELDS THAT WE SAW WAS CONSISTENT 

BUT WE DID SEE MORE HAIL THAN NORMAL HAIL THAT DIDN'T HINDER NEBRASKA'S OVERALL YIELD  POTENTIAL.   THE CROP WE'RE SEEING IN THIS PART OF NEBRASKA DOESN'T MAKE UP FOR THE LOSS YOU SAW WITH  HAIL YESTERDAY.   I WOULD SAY YES BECAUSE IF YOU ONLY HAVE SAY A HALF PERCENT OF THE ACRES OR HAIL DAMAGED BUT EVERY FIELDS A COUPLE OF PERCENT BETTER THAN LAST YEAR MORE THAN MAKES UP FOR THAT I  WOULD SAY EVEN WITH HAIL NEBRASKA'S SHOWING A YIELD THAT'S 8 PERCENT HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR'S  TOUR RESULTS AND JUST SHY OF 180 BUSHELS PER ACRE.   AND BOTH THE EASTERN AND WESTERN LEGS SCOURED IOWA MIDWEEK DESPITE DROUGHT BLANKETING  PARTS OF THE STATE WESTERN IOWA FIELDS PRODUCED SOME SURPRISES. DOES THAT FIELD LOOK BETTER  THAN WHAT IT DOES FROM THE ROAD.   I WOULD CONSIDER THAT LOOKS BETTER THAN FROM THE ROAD. NO QUESTION ABOUT IT. GET OUT THERE THE  YEAR IT WAS GOOD. THE EARS ARE REALLY NICE.   OBVIOUSLY WHEN WE PULL THEM OUT OF HERE FIELD OUT TO THE GROUND AND CLEAN CONSISTENT  BEANFIELD ALSO PUSHING OUT HIGH YIELDS.   IT'S LIKE A CARPET OUT HERE. I MEAN IT'S PERFECT THERE'S NO WEAK SPOTS YOU KNOW PODCASTS ARE  VERY GOOD TOO. ELEVEN HUNDRED TO TWO HUNDRED.   THERE'S ALSO GOOD SOIL MOISTURE TOO TO FILL THE BEANS SO THEY GET GOOD GRUB AROUND HERE AND  THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE IT'S CORN CARRYING VARIABILITY THIS YEAR. THESE ARE PRETTY SOLID  YEARS. IT'S VARIABILITY THAT'S CREATING A ROLLER COASTER OF YIELDS IN IOWA THIS YEAR.  I DON'T THINK WE'RE NECESSARILY GOING TO SEE CONSISTENCY BECAUSE OF THOSE ZONES THAT WE  HAVE THE SOUTH BEING TOO DRY AND TOO HOT DURING PARTS OF THE GROWING SEASON. NORTHEAST  IOWA VERY GOOD PRISTINE CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE GROWING SEASON.   MOVING TO MINNESOTA. THE WEATHER WORRIES FROM THIS YEAR ARE SHOWING UP IN THE FORM OF  SPORADIC YIELDS.  FIELDS ARE NORMALLY IN A BE PRODUCING 220 230 240 BUSHELS THEIR CROP YIELD IS 200 BUSHELS ARE LOW IS 93 BUSHELS IN THE THREE FIELDS. THAT'S A BIG RANGE IN A VERY GOOD PRODUCING AREA.   SMALL SOYBEAN YIELDS IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE SHOW PROMISE YIELDS WON'T HIT WHAT  FARMERS SAW IN 2017 THEY RANGE FROM 800 TO 2200.   NOT GREAT BUT GOOD.   IT STILL HAS PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO FILL THOSE PODS OUT WITH SOME PRETTY GOOD SIZED BEANS.   A MIXED BAG OF CROPS IN A YEAR WHERE THE BAR IS SET AT A NEW HIGH.   

TEASE
WELL, WHAT MARKET IMPACT COULD THESE UPDATED YIELD ESTIMATES HAVE ON  PRICES? OUR ROUNDTBALE DISCUSSION CONTINUES NEXT  

ROUNDTABLE 2
WELL WELCOME BACK TO THIS SPECIAL EDITION OF THE SHOW FROM THE FINAL PROFARMER CROP TOUE STOP IN ROCHESTER MINNESOTA. ALL RIGHT WE LOOKED AT THE WESTERN PORTION OF IOWA EARLIER IN THE SHOW BUT THE EASTERN PORTION OF IOWA TO SOME OF THOSE AREAS FACING DROUGHT THIS YEAR TOO. WHAT DID YOU SEE OUT THERE BRIAN. WELL THE SOUTH IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR COUNTIES AS WERE  IT WAS HOT AND DRY. SO THEY HAVE SOME STRUGGLES THERE THE EASTERN NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE  STATE. VERY GOOD. VERY GOOD GROWING CONDITIONS. THAT'S WHERE I'M FROM. AND YOU KNOW WHO'S NEAR IDEAL FOR SOME OF THOSE GUYS THROUGHOUT THE GROWING SEASON IF THEY NEEDED AN INCH OF RAIN THEY GOT AN INCH  AND A QUARTER AND THAT IT JUST HAPPENED THAT WAY. THEN YOU GET UP INTO THAT NORTHWEST PORTION NORTH CENTRAL PORTION. AND IT WAS WAY WAY WAY TOO WET. SO WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT THE STATE OF IOWA AS A WHOLE YOU KNOW THAT THERE ARE SOME  REALLY REALLY GOOD. AND THEN THERE'S SOME THAT ISN'T SO GOOD AND I THINK THE QUESTION IS IS THIS  STUFF THAT ISN'T SO GOOD ABLE TO HELP A LITTLE BIT. NOT PULLED DOWN QUITE AS MUCH.  DID THAT STORY  THAT BRIAN IS TALKING ABOUT THERE. DID THAT CONTINUE AS YOU GOT INTO MINNESOTA. JEFF YES IT DID. SO WHEN WE GOT INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA SOUTH WAS MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL  MINNESOTA. THE CROPS THAT ARE ON A WESTERN TOUR WERE TELLING US YOU'RE GOING TO SEE SOME UGLY LOOKING CORN AND WE DID SEE SOME UGLY LOOKING CORN WHEN WE GOT IN THERE. THE PLANTS  ARE IMMATURE THERE. THE PLANTS ARE RELATIVELY SHORT. IT APPEARS THAT THEY'VE BEEN HURT BY TOO  MUCH RAIN EARLY AND THEN THEY HAD SOME REALLY HIGH CONDITIONS THAT PUSHED IT ALONG AND THEN THEY GET  TO A TREE AND AGAIN IT'S JUST IT HASN'T DONE AS WELL AS EVERYONE WAS HOPING FOR IN THAT AREA. BUT THE  CENTRAL PART IS WHERE IT'S REALLY BAD. I SAW SEVERAL FIELDS FROM THE ROAD DRIVING IN HERE THAT WERE JUST  POLLINATED WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. SO IT HAS REALLY MATURE AND BRIAN THAT'S DIFFERENT THAN THE MATURITY THAT YOU MEASURED AND A LOT OF THE EASTERN PORTION LIKE ILLINOIS AND SOME OF THOSE  AREAS. IT'S IT'S A CROP THAT'S PRETTY FAR ALONG. YES EXTREME MATURITY WELL DENTED. WE'RE TALKING ABOUT A COUPLE OF WEEKS FROM HARVEST IN SOME OF THOSE LOCATIONS SO LABOR DAY AND BEYOND THERE'S GOING TO BE COLUMBINE'S ROLL.  SO WE MEASURED A LOT OF YIELD THIS YEAR VERSUS YIELD POTENTIAL WHICH WE'VE MEASURED IN OTHER  YEARS TALKING ABOUT ILLINOIS. I REMEMBER WE WERE IN ILLINOIS KIND OF RIGHT BEFORE FOURTH OF JULY AND THE CROP WAS BEAUTIFUL  ALREADY SEEN THE CROP POLLINATING EMERGENCE WAS PERFECT. I MEAN THERE WAS NOT A HOLE IN THE  FIELD. SO WE THOUGHT THAT THIS WOULD BE A PERFECT ILLINOIS CROP THIS YEAR. IT IS REALLY GOOD. IS IT  AS GOOD AS YOU THOUGHT. BACK IN JULY NO. AND I'M AND I'M GOING TO TALK BAD ABOUT THE ILLINOIS CROP HERE A LITTLE BIT AND  IT'S STILL THE BEST CROP THAT WE'VE SEEN ALL DAY. WE GET WE NEED TO KEEP THAT IN MIND. BUT IS IT  207 GOOD THAT USDA PUT ON IT ON AUGUST 1. EVERYBODY'S LOOKING AT THE YIELD CHANGE FROM YEAR AGO IN ILLINOIS. WE CAME BACK AT ONE NINETY TWO POINT SIX A YEAR AGO. IT WAS ONE EIGHTY  POINT SEVEN THAT'S A SIX POINT SIX PERCENT INCREASE. USDA WAS UP JUST 3 PERCENT FROM LAST YEAR'S CROP. SO PEOPLE  ARE  LOOKING AT THAT AND SAYING WELL THERE'S ROOM TO THE UPSIDE BECAUSE OF THOSE PERCENTAGE CHANGES. NO. A YEAR AGO BRYAN WE MEASURED A LOT OF POTENTIAL IN ILLINOIS. THE CROP FINISHED SO STRONG. USDA WAS WRONG IN AUGUST OF LAST YEAR. WE WERE WRONG ON ILLINOIS. IN AUGUST OF LAST YEAR EVERYBODY  WAS WRONG. THIS YEAR WE MEASURED YIELD AND WE DIDN'T FIND ENOUGH YIELD TO GET 7. BRIAN YOU AGREE WITH THAT. YEAH I DO. BECAUSE OUR FORMULA HOW IT WORKS IS THE MORE MATURE  THE CROP IS YES THE MORE ACCURATE IT IS THE LESS MATURE IT IS THE MORE GUESSWORK THERE IS ON  HOW IT'S GOING TO FINISH. AND JEFF MENTIONED IT THAT CROP LAST YEAR NOT JUST IN ILLINOIS BUT EVERYWHERE FINISHED REALLY REALLY GOOD REALLY QUICK.  WE DIDN'T EVEN TALK ABOUT POT COUNTS. I MEAN SWEETIE POTHOUSE ARE OUT OF THIS WORLD THIS YEAR. JEFF EVERY STATE IS UP TWELVE POINT EIGHT PERCENT IN OHIO 12 PERCENT AND INDIANA 8 PERCENT IN ILLINOIS. ALMOST 14 PERCENT IN SOUTH DAKOTA WHICH WAS REALLY STRONG ALMOST 15 PERCENT IN  NEBRASKA OVER 10 PERCENT.  IOWA AND EVEN 7 PERCENT IN MINNESOTA. THOSE ARE ALL THAT THE FACTORY IS THERE. THERE'S  MOISTURE IN THE GROUND. WE CAN FINISH FILLING FILLING THOSE PODS WITH A GOOD SIZE BEAN. BRIAN REAL QUICK. NOW WE KNOW THESE NUMBERS WE APPROACH FARMERS NUMBERS. WE'VE SEEN STATE BY STATE. DOES THE MARKET CARE ABOUT SUPPLY WE HAVE ALL OF THIS TRADE STUFF GOING ON.  DOES THE MARKET EVEN CARE AT THIS POINT. WELL SOYBEANS TRADE PROBABLY MEANS THE BIGGER  DEAL TO THE SOYBEAN MARKET TO THE CORN MARKET IT BETTER CARE BECAUSE IF YOU LOP TWO BUSHELS OFF OF WHAT USDA GAVE US IN AUGUST.  NOW YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT A CARRYOVER THAT PROJECTS THAT ABOUT ONE POINT FIVE BILLION BUSHELS  AND SO BETTER CARE BECAUSE ALL YOU HAVE TO DO IS COME DOWN A LITTLE BIT THIS YEAR. AND IT MATTERS EVERY BUSHEL COUNTS. SO THE POTENTIAL IS THERE TO SEE THAT HAPPEN. JEFF I DON'T KNOW. I DON'T KNOW GOOD CORN CROP THAT THEY JUST MIGHT HAVE THE BUSHELS IN THE WRONG SPOT. USDA IS WHAT I'M SAYING. THERE'S A LOT OF CORN BUSHELS OUT THERE AND BEING  BUSHY. ALL RIGHT WELL EASY TO SEE SOME IN-DEPTH COVERAGE MAKE SURE YOU GET THE PROFARMER. THANK YOU ALL FOR BEING HERE WITH ME THIS WEEK. I APPRECIATE IT. WE NEED TO TAKE A QUICK  BREAK. WE'LL HAVE MUCH MOREU.S. FARM REPORT.   

FARMING THE HORIZON
YOUNG COUPLES JUST GETTING STARTED IN A FARMING CAREER, NEED LOOK NO  FURTHER THAN THE CARRAWAY'S OF MURRAY KENTUCKY.  THE HUSBAND AND WIFE TEAM HAS TURNED A LOVE FOR THE FARM IN TO A PROFITABLE BUSINESS, CAPABLE OF WITHSTANDING THE TWISTS AND TURNS OF  EVERYDAY LIFE. CLINTON GRIFFITHS REPORTS. SCOUTING A CROP ON A HOT KENTUCKY DAY...YEAH IT LOOKS GOOD, THE LEAVES LOOK GOOD I SEE A LITTLE BIT OF WORM DAMAGE. IT NEEDS SOME  WATER. YEAH MORE THAN ANYTHING IT JUST NEEDS WATER. IS A CHANCE FOR CRAIG AND JOANNA CARRAWAY TO SEE THE RESULTS OF  ANOTHER SEASON'S HANDIWORK. "THIS TOBACCO HAS GROWN JUST SINCE I SENT YOU THE PICTURE THE OTHER DAY. IT'S GROWN A LOT." THEIR FARM IN MURRAY KENTUCKY HAS GROWN THANKS TO STEADY STRIDES IN  THE RIGHT DIRECTION. WE JUST GOT A NOTEBOOK OUT AND I SAT DOWN AND I SAID, WHAT'S SOME THINGS YOU WANT TO  SEE ON THE FARM? WHAT ARE YOUR GOALS? WHAT DO YOU WANT TO DO? AND I JUST STARTED WRITING THINGS DOWN. GOALS WRITTEN AND SET ASIDE -- LOST FOR 10 YEARS-- UNTIL JUST A FEW  WEEKS AGO. SO I FOUND THAT NOTEBOOK AND I GOT IT OUT AND I SAID, YOU GOT TO LOOK AT THIS,  AND SHE STARTED READING THEM TO ME AND SAYING, YOU KNOW, AND I'M LIKE, WELL, WE'VE DONE THAT WE'VE DONE THAT.  WE HAVE DONE EVERY SINGLE THING ON THIS LIST, BUT THREE.  AN ACCOMPLISHMENT THAT STARTED NEARLY 2 DECADES AGO... SO BY THE TIME WE WENT ON OUR FIRST DATE, WE WERE BASICALLY PLANNING OUR FUTURE, WE, WE  BOTH KNEW WE WEREN'T A FARM, THAT'S WHAT WE WANTED TO DO. AND SO THAT PART WAS EASY. BUT  THE LOGISTICS OF IT WAS A LITTLE BIT HARDER.  YOU KNOW, I SAID IN THE BEGINNING, I WASN'T GONNA DO IT. I WAS GONNA GO DO SOMETHING  ELSE. AND IT WAS IN MY BLOOD. AND I JUST FELT IT CALLING ME BACK.  BACK IN THE MID 2000'S THE PAIR WALKED AWAY FROM AG RETAIL... GAVE UP WAS THE COMPANY TRUCK, A COMPANY CELL PHONE, BENEFITS, A GOOD SALARY AND WE JUST BOTH AGREED THAT WE WOULD NEVER LET MONEY RULE OUR LIFE THAT THAT WOULD  NEVER MAKE OUR FINAL DECISIONS, YOU GOT TO HAVE MONEY TO LIVE. BUT YOU CAN LIVE ON A WHOLE LOT LESS, IF YOU REALLY WANT TO DO WHAT YOU WANT TO DO. SO WE DECIDED THAT WE WERE WILLING TO  LIVE ON LESS IF THAT'S IF IT MEANT WE GOT TO FARM TAKING A CHANCE TO PARTNER WITH CRAIG'S PARENTS AND SETTING UP A LEASE  TO OWN PLAN WITH HIS GRANDMOTHER. AND THAT HELPED HER WITH TAXES. AND IT HELPED US TO TRANSITION IN AS A STAIR STEP. SO WE WERE ABLE TO MAKE PAYMENTS OVER FIVE YEARS. IT WORKED REALLY WELL FOR US THEIR VERY FIRST YEAR, 2006 WAS A BUMPER CROP. THE VERY NEXT YEAR-- DROUGHT AND A COMPLETE CROP FAILURE. WE HAD, SO WE BEANS THAT I WILL NEVER FORGET MADE 11.7 AS AN AVERAGE I HAVE A DEGREE  IN AGRONOMY AND I THOUGHT OUR TECHNOLOGY HAD SURPASSED THAT I DIDN'T EVEN, I MEAN, I JUST  DIDN'T THINK IT COULD EVER GET THAT BAD.  AFTER 2007 YOU NEEDED A BACKUP PLAN IS THAT FAIR TO SAY? WE DID. ESPECIALLY WITH US BOTH  HAVING ON FARM INCOME.  THEY NEEDED A PLAN B AND IRONICALLY, THEIR LIFELINE ENDED UP BEING  TOBACCO. SO WE REALIZED THAT TOBACCO, WE COULD IRRIGATE IT ON A SMALL SCALE. AND THAT WOULD WORK THAT  COULD BE OUR PLAN B, WE COULD CONTROL THE WATER WITH IT. AND THAT WOULD HELP. WHAT I ALWAYS TELL PEOPLE, IT DOESN'T HAVE TO BE TOBACCO. IT CAN BE ANYTHING, IT CAN BE  CHICKENS, IT COULD BE HOGS, IT COULD BE A PREMIUM CROP OF SOMETHING IN YOUR SPECIFIC AREA.  THEY LEARNED TO BUTTON UP THEIR FINANCES...JOANNA CREATED  SPREADSHEETS TRACKING, ESTIMATING AND BUDGETING EVERY CORNER OF  THE OPERATION. WE DIDN'T LIVE ABOVE OUR MEANS WE DIDN'T SPEND A LOT OF MONEY EXTRA MONEY... WE REALIZE THAT EVERY DOLLAR WE EVER SPENT WENT TOWARDS SOMETHING TO MAKE MONEY. AS FAR AS PURCHASES GO, WE NEVER BOUGHT BOATS, FOUR-WHEELERS, ATVS, ANY KIND OF EXTRACURRICULAR ACTIVITIES DID NOT HAPPEN IF IT DIDN'T MAKE MONEY. BECAUSE THAT WOULD TAKE  AWAY FROM OUR GOALS. AND ONCE HE...(VOICE CRACKS) AND I'M GONNA TRY NOT TO GET UPSET.... I WAS DIAGNOSED IN FEBRUARY OF 2016 WITH BRAIN CANCER. ONCE HE WAS DIAGNOSED, WE REALIZED THAT MAYBE THAT WASN'T ALWAYS THE BEST CHOICE  CRAIG WAS GIVEN LESS THAN 14 MONTHS TO LIVE. WHEN EVERYBODY IS CRYING THE BLUES ABOUT WHAT THE CROWD IS GOING TO DO, I ALWAYS STAY OPTIMISTIC ALL THE WAY UNTIL YOU SLAPS ME IN THE FACE. SHE FOUND SPECIALISTS IN HOUSTON, HELPED CRAIG GET IN A CUTTING EDGE  MEDICAL TRIAL AND THE TEAM WENT TO WORK. BEFORE HIS FIRST BRAIN SURGERY, WE SIT DOWN. AND IT WAS NOT ABOUT THE FARM... THERE WAS NO  CONVERSATIONS OF I WISH WE'D HAVE FAR MORE ACRES. I WISH WE'D MADE MORE MONEY, WHICH WE  BUILT MORE BARNS WE DIDN'T THINK OF ANY OF THOSE.TWO SURGERY'S AND MORE THAN TWO AND HALF YEARS LATER, CRAIG IS STILL  HERE, STILL FACING THE FUTURE WITH HIS FAMILY. IT JUST REALLY CHANGES YOUR MINDSET A LOT SO DAILY I GET UP AND JUST THANK GOD THAT I'M WAKING  UP AND I'M STILL HERE FOR ANOTHER DAY AFTER THE LAST SURGERY CRAIG HAD TO RELEARN HOW TO WALK, WITH JOANNA  AND HIS KIDS ENCOURAGING EVERY STEP.  WE DIDN'T GET THERE WITH WORK WITH FOCUSING ON THE END. WE GOT THERE FOCUSING ON WHAT  WE GOT TO DO TODAY. AND TODAY MEANT SAVORING EVERY MOMENT, TAKING WEEKENDS OFF, GOING TO BALL GAMES AND CAMPING SO WE REALIZED THEN THAT MAYBE NOW WE KNOW OUR TIME IS A LOT SHORTER. WE NEED TO  FOCUS ON SOME THINGS OF ENJOYMENT, HOSE GOALS SCRIBBLED INTO A NOTEBOOK TEN YEARS AGO, AND THE PLANS  FOR DISASTER PROOFING A BUSINESS,  NOTHING'S IMPOSSIBLE. SO YOU GOT TO BE POSITIVE AND LOOK AT-- IT'S NOT THINGS THAT ARE  IMPOSSIBLE, IT'S THINGS TO WORK TOWARD. NOW JUST A STEP ALONG AN UNCERTAIN PATH WITH IMMEASURABLE RETURNS.   THANKS CLINTON. CRAIG CARRAWAY STILL HAS A BRAIN TUMOR THAT'S GROWING. HE'S PLANNING TO TRY A NEW TYPE OF CHEMO IN HOPES OF SLOWING IT DOWN. WE WISH HIM LUCK. CUSTOMER SUPPORT IS NEXT.  

CUSTOMER SUPPORT
WHILE SOME FAMRERS ARE PUSHING FOR TRADE NOT AID, NOT EVERY FARMER  VIEWS THE TARIFFS AS A NEGATIVE. HERE'S CUSTOMER SUPPORT. ANDY LANSKY FROM GLENNY MICHIGAN BRINGS UP A FAMILIAR PHRASE. I HAVE NO IDEA WHY SOME  FARMERS ARE GETTING UPSET ABOUT THE TARIFFS THAT HAVE BEEN LEVIED AGAINST THEU.S. FOR YEARS.  IT'S COSTING THE AMERICAN TAXPAYERS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS. LET'S PLAY THIS OUT. IT WILL TURN OUT FOR  THE BEST. WE IN AGRICULTURE SHOULD SUPPORT THAT OUR GOVERNMENT IS FINALLY CONCERNED TRYING TO  GET OUR COUNTRY ON A LEVEL PLAYING FIELD. GIVE IT A CHANCE. IT'S MORE THAN THE LAST ADMINISTRATION DID. RANDI THANK IF YOU'RE WRITING AND SEND ME AN ADDRESS. WHILE I DISAGREE  WITH EVERY ASSERTION YOU MADE I ONLY HAVE TIME TO TALK ABOUT ONE THAT'S THE IDEA OF THE LEVEL  PLAYING FIELD. JUST LIKE USING MILITARY LANGUAGES UNHELPFUL IN UNDERSTANDING TRADE ISSUES I  HAVE DISCOVERED THAT FEW OF US KNOW WHAT CONDITION THIS FABLED PLAYING FIELD REALLY IS IN.  THERE IS AN IMPRESSION LARGELY FUELED BY ADMINISTRATION STATEMENTS THAT TARIFF LEVELS ARE HIGH  AND RISING. THE EXACT OPPOSITE IS TRUE. HERE'S A TABLE SHOWING THE TARIFF LEVELS OF OUR MAJOR  TRADING PARTNERS. THE FIRST COLUMN IS THE ACTUAL AVERAGE OF THE TARIFF SCHEDULE. THE OTHER TWO  ARE EFFORTS TO WEIGHT THAT AVERAGE TO MATCH WHAT PRODUCTS ARE ACTUALLY TRADED. FOR EXAMPLE THEU.S. PUTS A 25 PERCENT TARIFF ON PICKUPS FROM EUROPE BUT ALMOST NONE ARE SOLD SO THAT  NUMBER REALLY DOESN'T COUNT AS MUCH AS TARIFFS WE PUT ON OTHER PRODUCTS THAT DO SELL. THE  POINT IS BY ANY MEASURE TARIFFS ARE NOT LARGE AMOUNTING TO A FEW PERCENT. IF THIS ISN'T A LEVEL  PLAYING FIELD I PLAYED ON A LOT WORSE. NOR ARE TARIFFS RISING. THIS CHARTER IS BASICALLY A SUMMATION OF TARIFFS ALL OVER THE WORLD AND IT SHOWS HOW THEY HAVE DROPPED ABOUT TWO THIRDS  SINCE 1990 LOWERING TARIFFS AND INCREASING TRADE HAVE BEEN HIGH PRIORITIES OF ALL PAST ADMINISTRATIONS. AND SUCCESS REQUIRES TIME AND COMMITMENT. FOR EXAMPLE MANY  AGREEMENTS COMPROMISE BY PHASING TARIFFS OUT OVER DECADES WHICH ALLOWS TIME FOR ECONOMIES AND BUSINESSES TO ADJUST. OK TO SUMMARIZE WANT IT'S NOT A PLAYING FIELD IT'S A  COMPLEX SYSTEM OF EFFORTS TO PROTECT PLITT POLITICALLY POWERFUL INDUSTRIES AT THE EXPENSE OF  TAXPAYERS AND CONSUMERS TOO. TARIFFS ARE NOT HIGH NOW. 3 THEY COULD BE LOWER. AND UNTIL RECENTLY THEU.S. AND ITS TRADING PARTNERS HAD BEEN ACCOMPLISHING THAT TEDIOUS AND DRAWN OUT  TASK. THANKS, JOHN.  

TEASE
WHEN WE COME BACK, SOCIAL MEDIA WAS BLASTED WITH PICTURES AND  REPORTS FROM CROP TOUR THIS WEEK. WE'LL SHOW YOU SOME PHOTOS NEXT.  

FROM THE FARM
AS WE'VE BEEN REPORTING, CROP SCOUTS SAW SOME GOOD AND BAD THIS  WEEK. BUT AS ONE SCOUT GOT CLOSER TO RIGHT HERE IN MINNESOTA, HE SAW THE STRUGGLES FARMERS FACED THIS YEAR.  JAROD CREED FOUND THIS FIELD 20 MILES FROM THE MINNESOTA BORDER...  WITH A YIELD OF 48 BUSHELS PER ACRE. IT'S AN AREA THAT STRUGGLED WITH  TOO MUCH MOISTURE DURING PLANTING THIS YEAR.  WELL, THERE WAS A SPECTATER FOR WHEAT HARVEST IN NORTH DAKOTA THIS  YEAR. OWEN- WHO'S 4- WATHCED HIS GRANDPA COMBINE. HIS MOM TELL SUS  OWEN LOVES EVERTHIGN TO DO WITH FAMRING  THIS IS MY SON OWEN. HE IS 4 YEARS OLD. HE IS WATCHING HIS GRANDPA COMBINE. HE LOVES EVERYTHING TO DO WITH FARMING NEWLYWEDS ANDREW AND ANGIE DROVE AWAY FROM THEIR WEDDING  CEREMONY IN STYLE LAST WEEKEND-- IN AN IH 806.  IF YOU HAVE A PICTURE OF VIDEO YOU'D LIKE TO SEND IN, SEND THOSE TO MAILBAG-AT-U-S-FARM-REPORT-DOT-COM OR CHECK US OUT ON FACEBOOK AND  TWITTER. 

CLOSE
FROM ALL OF US AT U.S. FARM REPORT, I'M MIKE HOFFMAN.  AND I'M TYNE MORGAN.  THANK YOU FOR WATCHING U-S FARM REPORT.  BE SURE TO JOIN US RIGHT HERE  AGAIN NEXT WEEK, AS WE WORK TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION. HAVE A GREAT  WEEKEND, EVERYONE.  THE CHEVY SILVERADO IS THE OFFICIAL NEWS-GATHERING VEHICLE FOR U.S. FARM REPORT. 

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