USFR Weekly Recap - August 5-6, 2017

August 5, 2017 03:30 AM
 

TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
AUGUST 5-6, 2017


HEADLINES
WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M TYNE MORGAN, AND HERE'S WHAT WE'RE WORKING ON FOR YOU OVER  THE NEXT 60 MINUTES.  A SURPRISING BOOST IN SOYBEAN CROP CONDITION  RATINGS THIS WEEK, AND PRICES PLUMMET.  DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL WIPING OUT THE 22,000  CEILING... BUT DOES THE STOCK MARKET HAVE MORE  LEGS TO RUN HIGHER?  AS THE DUST SETTLES FROM DAIRY TRADE FALLOUT  WITH CANADA, ONE FAMILY FARM DOESN'T LOOK THE  SAME...  <" I SEE A MILK TRUCK.. AND I SEE THE DAIRY MAGAZINES COME AND -  SHE IS TEARING UP AND TAKES A BREATH "> IT'S A SAD ENDING WITH GRASSLAND DAIRY. THAT'S OUR  FARM JOURNAL REPORT. IT'S A BIRD, IT'S A PLAIN, NOPE, IT'S A SKI JUMPER <WHY DO YOU LIKE FLYING? CAUSE I REALLY LIKE  BIRDS...(SMILES).> THA'TS AMERICAN COUNTRYSIDE  AND IN JOHN'S WORLD... "CROP REPORTS, LOVE EM OR HATE EM." <U.S. FARM REPORT - BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE DEPENDABLE, LONG  LASTING, CHEVY SILVERADO.>

USDA CROP CONDITIONS
NOW FOR THE MARKET RELATED NEWS, USDA  SHOCKING THE MARKET BY RAISING CROP CONDITIONS THIS WEEK. THE SOYBEAN MARKET DIDN'T LIKE THE  NEWS, PLUMMETING MORE THAN 30 CENTS ON  TUESDAY. USDA SAYS SOYBEAN RATINGS IMPORVED 2 POINTS IN A  WEEK, NOW 59 PERCENT GOOD TO EXCELLENT. MOST OF THAT CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO BETTER  CONDITIONS IN THE EAST. USDA BUMPED ILLINOIS  RATINGS UP 7 POINTS THIS WEEK, AND INDIANA JUMPED  4 POINTS. AND FOR CORN, USDA SHAVING A POINT OFF CORN  CODNITIONS, NOW 61 PERCENT IS RATED GOOD TO  EXCELLENT NATIONALLY. IOWA SAW CONDITIONS DECLINE 3 POINTS. AND INDIANA  DROPPED 2 POINTS. CONDITIONS RATINGS MOVING THE MARKETS IN  CHICAGO THIS WEEK. HERE'S JOE VACLAVIK OF  STANDARD GRAIN.  <YOU KNOW USUALLY WE SEE CORN AND SOYBEAN RATINGS DETERIORATE  AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO HARVEST. AND WE SAW THE OPPOSITE OF THAT  THIS WEEK AND THAT BEING MARKED. SO THAT KIND OF HELPED TO SPUR  SOME OF THE SELLING PRESSURE I BELIEVE. .

DOW HITS 22,000
MEANWHILE, THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL REACHING A  NEW MILESTONE.. CLOSING ABOVE 22,000 FOR THE  FIRST TIME EVER. THE DOW ON AN IMPRESSIVE RUN HIS YEAR, WITH 32  RECORD CLOSES ALREADY. THE DOW HIT 21 THOUSAND ON MARCH FIRST.. THE  MOMENTUM FROM THE TRUMP ADMINSTRATION'S  POLICIES, VIEWED AS PRO GROWTH.

WEATHER
THOSE ARE THE HEADLINES. METEOROLOGIST CINDI  CLAWSON IS IN FOR MIKE HOFFMAN. CINDI WE SEE  DROUGHT EXPANDING A BIT IN IOWA THIS WEEK. YEAH TYNE WE REALLY ARE WATCHING AREAS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST  AND INTO THE MUCH TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES BECAUSE WE'VE  SEEN THAT DROUGHT INTENSIFYING ESPECIALLY IN THE DAKOTAS AND INTO  MONTANA. CHECK OUT HOW IT'S BEEN OVER THE PAST MONTH OR SO.  WE'VE REALLY SEEN THAT INTENSIFICATION THAT SPREAD TO THE EAST AND  EVEN INTO THE SOUTH AS WE'VE BEEN OVER THE PAST FOUR WEEKS OR SO AND WE'VE EVEN SEEN SOME OF THAT STRETCHING A LITTLE BIT  FURTHER INTO THE CORN BELT. WE STILL HAVE A LITTLE BIT IN THE SOUTHERN  PLAINS AS WELL BUT THIS IS THE AREA WE'RE GOING TO CONTINUE TO  WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS. ALL RIGHT WHAT DO WE HAVE  TO LOOK FORWARD TO THIS WEEK. WELL WE ARE LOOKING AT SOME WET  WEATHER IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AS A STORM SYSTEM  MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN PART THERE. SOME SUNSHINE AT TO START  YOUR WEEK IN PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE PLAINS  STATES. NOW AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY WHAT WE EXPECT TO SEE  IS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN  QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY AND YET ANOTHER FRONT WILL START TO MOVE IN  TO THE NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES THAT BRING SHOWERS AND  THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ALL THE WAY INTO THE  PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS WE SEE THAT STATIONARY FRONT TRAILING BACK  THERE PRETTY HOT THOUGH THAT'S GOING TO CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHWEST  AND EVEN PRETTY WARM WEATHER IN MUCH OF THE WEST COAST AS  WELL. WHEN YOU DON'T HAVE ANY RAIN THERE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.  BUT THEN BY FRIDAY WE'RE GOING TO SEE THOSE FRONTS CONTINUING TO  MOVE MAYBE A SECONDARY FRONT AFFECTING THE GREAT LAKES AND  THEN WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING  SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN  PLAINS ON FRIDAY. WE'LL HAVE MORE WEATHER COMING UP IN THE NEXT  HALF HOUR TYNE. 

TEASE
OUR ROUNDTABLES ARE ON THE ROAD HTIS WEEK  FROM UNION CITY, TN. FROM CROP CONDITIONS TO THE  SURGING STOCK MARKET, WE'LL COVER IT ALLA FTER  THE BREAK.

ROUNDTABLE 1
WELCOME BACK TO US FARM REPORT FOR OUR MARKETING ROUNDTABLES  THIS WEEK WE'RE ON THE ROAD THIS WEEK THEY ALLOWED US TO COME  DOWN TO UNION CITY TENNESSEE WE'RE AT THE ASGROW DEKALB  GROWER SHOWCASE A GREAT DAY. I MEAN I WAS EXPECTING 100  DEGREE TEMPERATURES. DEFINITELY NOT COOL TODAY BUT NOT THAT WARM  AS WELL. SO WE APPRECIATE THE NICE WEATHER AS WE MADE OUR TRIP  DOWN. BRIAN SPEAKING OF WEATHER THIS WEEK WE SAW FAVORABLE  WEATHER FORECASTS WE SAW USDA ACTUALLY BOOST SOYBEAN  CONDITION RATINGS THAT DID NOT CREATE A GOOD RECIPE FOR SOYBEAN  PRICES WE SAW SOYBEAN PRICES PLUMMET 30 CENTS ON TUESDAY. IS  IT JUST BECAUSE OF WEATHER AND CROP CONDITIONS.  IT IS. WE'RE AT THE TIME OF THE YEAR WHERE WEATHER IS EVERYTHING  FROM BEAN PRODUCTION. WHEN YOU WENT INTO THE END OF LAST WEEK  WE HAD A DRIER FORECAST 6-10 DAY FORECAST THEN CAME OUT ON  FRIDAY AND SATURDAY STARTED TO CHANGE THAT PUSHING RAIN INTO THE  ENTIRE MIDWEST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWEST. AND  CONSEQUENTLY AT THIS TIME OF YEAR RAIN TRUMP'S RATINGS BY FAR.  YOU TALKED TO PRODUCER HAS BEEN STRUGGLING WITH HEAT. YOU CAN  HAVE 23 DAYS A HEAT OR DRY WEATHER. ONE GOOD RAIN EVAPORATES  THAT CONCERN IN A HURRY. SO THAT'S WHAT THE MARKET TRADE IT WAS A  BETTER WEATHER FORECAST. RATINGS TICKED UP A LITTLE BIT BECAUSE OF  THE RAIN THE PREVIOUS WEEK IN PARTICULAR IOWA ILLINOIS WHERE  WHERE HE SOME MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE IN PARTS OF MINNESOTA  NEBRASKA SO. SO IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR BETTER YIELD POTENTIALS  AS I'D LIKE TO CALL IT.  YEAH IT'LL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT USDA DOES ON MONDAY BUT  WHAT SCARES ME IS WE KEEP TALKING ABOUT WITH SOYBEANS AT LEAST  WHETHER WE KNOW YOU KNOW THE WEATHER IN AUGUST IS WHAT  MAKES OR BREAKS SOYBEANS. WE SAW FAVORABLE WEATHER FORECAST  THIS PAST WEEK. IF WE SEE A FAVORABLE WEATHER FORECAST THIS NEXT  WEEK. HOW LOW COULD WE SEE THESE SOYBEAN PRICES GO.  YOU KNOW WE START OUT EVERY YEAR TRYING YOU KNOW GO WITH A  WIDE RANGE AND THEN WE NARROW THAT IN AS THE SEASON WEARS ON.  WITH A LOT OF FLEXIBILITY AS SUMMER PUSHES BECAUSE THAT'LL  DETERMINE THE REAL DIRECTION EITHER WE MOVE UP OR WE MOVE  DOWN. RIGHT NOW THAT PENDULUM IS BEGINNING TO SWING DOWN.  THERE'S A GAP ON CHARTS THAT WAS LEFT ON JUNE 30TH AT 9:58  NOVEMBER BEANS IT'S LIKELY THAT'LL GET FILLED. IF WE HAVE ANOTHER  WEEK OF GOOD WEATHER IT'S POSSIBLE WE COULD EVENTUALLY WORK OUR  WAY DOWN A $9 IN NOVEMBER. THAT'S JUST WHAT HAPPENS WHEN  YOU USE $10 AS A PIVOT POINT. YOU'RE ALWAYS A DOLLAR AWAY FROM  BEANS MOVING UP OR DOWN VOTE IS FOR DOWN NOW BECAUSE OF THE  RAIN.  REAL QUICK WHAT ABOUT CORN. WE SAW USDA SHAVE A POINT OFF OF  THE NATIONAL CORN CONDITION RATINGS. REALLY YOU KNOW WE LOOK AT  THIS WEATHER BUT IT IS SOYBEANS DRAGGING CORN PRICES DOWN AS  WELL OR AT THIS POINT ARE WE NOT SEEING THAT CORRELATION HAPPEN.  IT'S BOTH. WHEN WHEN CORN IS RATED AS POORLY AS IT HAS BEEN IN  AREAS THAT CORN IS NOT GOING TO ALL OF A SUDDEN GET A LOT BETTER.  BEANS HAVE A TENDENCY TO HANG ON DURING DRIER WEATHER AND IF  THEY CAN GET TIMELY RAINS MAYBE PRODUCE BETTER THEN THAN YOU  MIGHT THINK. WHEN YOU'RE GOING THROUGH THOSE DRY STRETCHES. SO  WITH CORN THE RATINGS HAVE GONE DOWN. YOU LOOK AT THE PRIVATE  ESTIMATES THERE'S A LOT OF YIELD ESTIMATES BETWEEN LET'S SAY 162  AND 168 WE'RE RIGHT AROUND THAT 165 TO 167 I ALWAYS FUDGED UP A  COUPLE FOR TECHNOLOGY AND JUST BETTER FARMING AND GENETICS AND  TILLAGE PRACTICES. SO YOU ARE LOOKING AT A SMALLER CROP THIS YEAR  BUT YOU'RE ALSO LOOKING AT SMALLER EXPORT. SO THE THE THE END  RESULT IS YOUR CARRY-OUT NUMBER DOESN'T CHANGE MUCH. AND AS  THE SEASON WEARS ON THE MARKET SEES NOT ONLY THIS OLD CROP CORN  COMING TO THE MARKET PLACE BUT THEY'LL START HARVEST IN A WEEK IN TEXAS SO THAT'S GRADUALLY GOING AWAY ON THE MARKET AND THAT'S  THAT'S WHY THAT PRESSURE HAS BEEN PUSHING CORN PRICES EVER SO  SLOWLY BUT DOWNWARD.  YEAH WE'RE HERE IN TENNESSEE WHERE WE'VE SEEN CROP CONDITION  RATINGS. I MEAN SOME OF THE BEST IN IN THE COUNTRY AND THE CROPS  DO LOOK LOOK REALLY GOOD. CHRIS AT THE SAME TIME THIS WEEK WE  SAW SOME MORE IMPRESSIVE ACTION ON THE STOCK MARKET FRONT. I  MEAN. HOW MUCH MORE LEGS DOES THE STOCK MARKET HAVE. WE  CONTINUE TO SAY OH WE WON'T HIT 20 DOLLARS WE WILL HIT 21000  WON'T HIT 22. LO AND BEHOLD WE DO. CAN THIS RUN CONTINUE.  WELL YOU KNOW TYNE EVERYBODY WANTS TO BE ABLE TO CALL THE TOP  AND IF SOMEBODIES GOING TO GET RIGHT YOU KNOW GET IT RIGHT AT  SOME POINT BUT NOW WE'RE ABOUT HALFWAY. ALMOST TWO THIRDS  THROUGH EARNINGS SEASON FOR THE SECOND QUARTER AND TOP LINE  ROSE DRAWING 5 6 PERCENT EARNINGS ARE GROWING 11 TO 12 PERCENT  RIGHT NOW. AND SO THINGS ARE ACTUALLY DOING WELL. I MEAN  UNEMPLOYMENT'S GETTING LOWER. COMPANIES ARE STARTING TO HIRE  AGAIN. YOU KNOW IN THE OLD DAYS WHEN YOU WERE HAD BETTER  EARNINGS IS BECAUSE OF COST CUTTING. WE WILL SEE A LITTLE BIT OF THAT  BUT NOT AS MUCH. NOW IT'S YOU KNOW PEOPLE ARE ACTUALLY ADDING  TO THE WORKFORCE AND THEY'RE STILL ABLE TO IMPROVE THEIR MARGINS  AND THEIR EARNINGS SO YOU KNOW I THINK FOR THE TIME BEING I DON'T  SEE ANYTHING THAT'S GOING TO YOU KNOW REALLY DERAIL IT. YOU KNOW  BARRING SOME KIND OF BIG CRISIS.  YEAH AND DON AT THE SAME TIME TALK ABOUT THE U.S. DOLLAR. I  MEAN WHEN WE LOOK AT OUR BEEF WE LOOK AT OUR EXPORTS U.S.  DOLLAR SAYS IT ALL. WHAT ACTION ARE WE SEEING ON THE DOLLAR AT THIS  POINT.  YOU KNOW WE WE SAW THAT PHENOMENAL RALLY IN THE DOLLAR INITIALLY  AFTER THE ELECTION AND KEPT TALKING ABOUT THAT THE TRUMP BUMP  THAT'S ALL ROLLED OVER. WE'VE TAKEN OUT ALL OF THE GAINS THAT  OCCURRED POST-ELECTION. WE'RE NOW LOOKING AT THE TRUMP SLUMP  AND THE CURRENCY VALUES. THAT'S REALLY SUPPORTIVE INFLUENCE BECAUSE IT MAKES OUR GOODS CHEAPER IN THE INTERNATIONAL MARKET.  SO FROM A RAW COMMODITY OR AGRICULTURE FRONT WE SHOULD REALLY  SEE SOME BENEFITS FROM THE LOWER DOWN.  ALL RIGHT WE'LL GET INTO SOME OF THIS MACRO PICTURE A LITTLE BIT MORE.  WE NEED TO TAKE A BREAK SO WE'LL DO THAT AND WE'LL BE RIGHT BACK  ON U.S. FARM REPORT.

ROUNDTABLE 2
WELCOME BACK TO US FARM REPORT AGAIN WE'RE HERE FROM UNION  CITY TENNESSEE. CHRIS WE WERE TALKING ABOUT THE US DOLLAR KIND  OF WHAT WHAT'S YOUR TAKE DO YOU THINK WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE THIS  DOLLAR WEAKEN BECAUSE THAT WOULD ONLY BE GOOD NEWS FOR ALL OF  US.  YOU KNOW WHEN WE LOOK AT WHAT'S GOING ON WITH BREXIT FOR  EXAMPLE AND WE'VE SEEN YOU KNOW EVEN AGAINST THE EUROPEAN  CURRENCY THE EURO AND THE POUND YOU KNOW THE DOLLAR HAS  WEAKENED AND THAT KIND OF SURPRISED ME TO BE HONEST BECAUSE  WITH THE UNCERTAIN THAT'S GOING ON OF BREXIT AND THE UNCERTAINTY  WITH THE POLICIES HERE IN THE U.S. AND THEN YOU THINK THAT THEY  WOULD PROBABLY JUST START KIND OF MOVING IN TANDEM BUT THEY  HAVEN'T SEEN THAT. I THINK WHERE WE REALLY NEED TO WATCH SOME OF  THE EMERGING MARKET CURRENCIES LIKE THE BRAZILIAN REAL WHERE YOU  KNOW YOU JUST HAD THAT ANOTHER SCANDAL GOING ON THERE WITH THEIR  NEW PRESIDENT. AND YOU LOOK AT THEIR ECONOMIC DATA THAT JUST  CAME OUT EARLIER THIS WEEK. THINGS ARE NOT LOOKING AS GOOD AS  PEOPLE THOUGHT. THEY'RE NOT IMPROVING. AS MUCH OR EVEN AT ALL  RIGHT NOW AND I THINK EVEN THOUGH WE SEE THE REALE REALLY  APPRECIATE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS I THINK THAT ACTUALLY IS  GOING TO BE SOMETHING THAT MIGHT BE WORTH WATCHING BECAUSE IF  THAT STARTS TO REVERSE ITSELF THAT CAN ACTUALLY PUT SOME PRESSURE  ON U.S. SOIL AND EXPORTS AND SOME OF THE OTHER COMMODITIES AS  WELL. YEAH BRIAN.  CHRIS MENTIONED IN DEMAND AND IN DEMAND HAS BEEN STRONG I  MEAN IT'S SCARY TO THINK IF WE DIDN'T HAVE THIS STRONG DEMAND IN  SOYBEAN PRICES WHERE SOYBEAN PRICES WOULD BE AT THIS POINT. BUT  DO YOU THINK THAT DEMAND TRAIN CAN CONTINUE. DO YOU THINK WE  CONTINUE DOWN THIS PATH.  YEAH I DID FROM A PERSONAL PERSPECTIVE WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE  U.S. DOLLAR AND THEN YOU LOOK AT OUR CROPS PROBABLY BEING A LITTLE  BIT SMALLER THIS YEAR PRICES STILL HOLDING AT A VERY GOOD BARGAIN FOR  END USERS. WE'RE BUILDING A REALLY STRONG DEMAND BASE SO THAT'S  THE THAT'S THE GOOD STORY WE'RE BUILDING A TROUGH OF LOW PRICES  THAT CREATE STEADY AND STABLE DEMAND THAT ULTIMATELY WHEN  THINGS HAPPEN IN THE FUTURE PRICES CAN QUICKLY RECOVER. WE SAW  THAT THIS YEAR TO SOME DEGREE AND BEANS GOOD DEMAND WE GET A  LITTLE WEATHER. CROP RATINGS WERE DOWN BEANS RALLY SHARPLY. SO  THERE'S OPPORTUNITIES THE KEY FOR PRODUCERS TO RECOGNIZE STILL THAT  WE'RE STILL IN KIND OF A WINDOW HERE WHERE DESPITE WHAT WILL BE  SMALLER CRAP'S IN THE U.S. THIS YEAR THE WORLD STILL IS AMPLE  INVENTORIES. SO WE'VE GOT GOOD DEMAND BUT AMPLE INVENTORY  RALLY SHOULD BE GIVE US OPPORTUNITIES TO DEFEND.  SPEAKING UP DEMAND. DON YOU KNOW WE'VE HAD A BULLISH  DEMAND STORY WHEN IT COMES TO PROTEINS. BUT LAST WEEK WE SAW  JAPAN ANNOUNCE THAT THEY WERE GOING TO INCREASE THE TARIFFS ON  FROZEN BEEF FROM THIRTY EIGHT POINT FIVE PERCENT TO 50 PERCENT.  DOES THAT SCARE YOU AT ALL. I MEAN HOW BIG OF AN IMPACT  ULTIMATELY DO YOU THINK THAT HAS ON U.S. BEEF. WELL.  I THINK THE FIRST THING YOU GOT TO SAY AND 11 AND A HALF PERCENT  INCREASE AND THE TARIFF RATE ON FROZEN PRODUCTS NOT FRESH BUT  FROZEN PRODUCTS. IT'S NOT GOING TO HELP. NOW THE BACK SIDE OF THAT  IF YOU LOOK AT THE THE CURRENCY SITUATION WE TALKED ABOUT IN THE  EARLIER SEGMENT THE DECLINE IN THE VALUE OF THE DOLLAR. THE SURGE  WE'VE SEEN IN THE AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR AND WHERE BOTH THE U.S. AND  AUSTRALIAN CURRENCIES FALL AGAINST THE YEN. THE SHIFT IN CURRENCY  VALUES HAS ALL BUT OFFSET THE 11 AND A HALF PERCENT INCREASE AND  TARIFF RATE FOR THE FROZEN FROZEN PRODUCT OF JAPAN. SO DO I THINK  THAT WE WILL SEE A DECLINE IN THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS OF FROZEN  PRODUCTS GOING TO JAPAN BECAUSE OF THE HIGHER PRICE. YES.  AUSTRALIA IS NOT YET AT A PRODUCTION LEVEL TO OFFSET THAT SUPPLY. SO  I STILL THINK THAT WHEN WE GET THROUGH THIS NINE MONTH EIGHT NINE  MONTH PERIOD WE WILL HAVE SEEN A LARGER VOLUME OF FROZEN  PRODUCT GOING TO JAPAN THAN WHAT WE MAY BE FEARING TODAY.  WHAT SCARES ME IS DON WHAT TRIGGERED THAT THAT INCREASE IN THE  TARIFF WAS WE JUST BARELY WENT OVER THAT THRESHOLD.  THE TRIGGER POINT IS 17 PERCENT YEAR OVER YEAR INCREASE AND THE  INCREASE WAS SEVENTEEN POINT ONE. YOU KNOW WE WOULD THINK  THAT THERE COULD BE SOME LATITUDE THAT SOME NEGOTIATION. I THINK  THE REAL PUSH BACK FROM JAPAN IS THEIR FRUSTRATION WITH THE U.S..  ON OUR BACKING AWAY FROM THE TRANS-PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP AND  THEY'RE SAYING. THAT THOSE NEGOTIABLE TERMS WERE INCLUDED IN THE  TPP. YOU BACKED AWAY WITH IT. IT SURE DEAL LIVE WITH.  WELL IN FACT SECRETARY PERDUE HAS SAID POSSIBLY THAT THIS WILL SPILL  OVER TO OTHER COMMODITIES THAT HE'S FEARFUL THAT IT COULD IMPACT  OTHER COMMODITIES AND WE LOOK AT CORN. BRIAN JAPAN IS NOW OUR  NUMBER ONE CUSTOMER FOR CORN BEAT OUT BEAT OUT MEXICO. SO ARE  YOU WORRIED ABOUT THAT. AT ALL. I'M ALWAYS WORRIED ABOUT THINGS. BUT THAT'S NOT A PRIORITY RIGHT  NOW IF I'M A PRODUCER I'M MORE WORRIED ABOUT IF MY CROP LOOKS  PRETTY GOOD. HOW DO I START MARKETING THIS CROP OR DEFENDING  PRICES IN CASE THEY GO LOWER. WHAT'S MY PLAN FOR THE YEAR AHEAD.  WHAT TRIGGER POINTS DO I SELL ON RALLIES. SO OF COURSE I'M  CONCERNED ABOUT THAT. BUT I THINK THAT WILL COME OUT IN THE WASH  THAT WILL STRAIGHTEN ITSELF OUT. YOU'VE GOT A NEW ADMINISTRATION  THERE'S SOME FEATHERS HAVE BEEN RUFFLED. WE'LL GET IT FIGURED OUT.  CHRIS REAL QUICK DEMAND IS WHEN YOU LOOK AT CURTSEYS ACROSS THE  GLOBE AND WHEN YOU LOOK AT HOW THESE DIFFERENT COUNTRIES ARE  OUR POSITION IS THERE ANY COUNTRY THAT YOU'RE THE MOST BULLISH ON  WHEN IT WOULD COME COME TO DEMAND.  YOU KNOW I'M LOOKING AT ASIAN AND LOOK AT A COUNTRY LIKE INDIA  FOR EXAMPLE WHERE YOU KNOW THEY'RE GROWING 6 7 PERCENT. YOU KNOW THE NEW PRESIDENT IS YOU KNOW HE'S IT'S BEEN SLOW GOING  BUT HE'S BEEN YOU KNOW INTRODUCING SOME GOOD CONTROLS A LOT OF  PEOPLE WERE WORRIED ABOUT THE WAY HE TOOK OUT THE CURRENCIES  THE LARGER RUPEE BILLS ENDING OVER A HUNDRED HE KIND OF  OUTLAWED. AND THAT OBVIOUSLY CAUSED HIM SHORT TERM PAIN. BUT I  THINK GOING FORWARD IT IS IT MAKES A LOT OF SENSE HE'S GETTING RID OF  HIS BLACK MARKET. PEOPLE ARE GETTING PAID FOR WHAT THEY DO AND  THEY CONTINUE TO GROW AND I THINK OVER THE NEXT 20 30 YEARS YOUR  POPULATION IS GOING TO EXCEED CHINA. AND YOU KNOW YOU HAVE A  LOT OF PEOPLE OVER THERE THAT ARE NOW DEMANDING YOU KNOW MORE  AND MORE HIGH PROTEIN DIETS AND EVERYTHING ELSE. AND SO NOW I THINK THAT'S PROBABLY WHAT I WOULD LOOK AT OTHER YOU KNOW OTHER  COUNTRIES AS WELL.  ALL RIGHT THANKS CHRIS. WELL WE NEED TO TAKE A SHORT BREAK. WE'LL  GET OUR CLOSING THOUGHTS AND WE'LL DO THAT WHEN WE COME BACK.  ON U.S. FARM REPORT.

MARKETS NOW
ALL RIGHT. TIME NOW FOR OUR CLOSING THOUGHTS. BRIAN WE'LL START WITH  YOU.  OK WE'LL KEEP HER QUICK. WE GET BEAN CROP THAT APPEARS TO SHOW  IMPROVEMENT. DEFEND BEANS BUY PUTS IN THE BEAN MARKET OR  FORWARD SELL I KNOW THEY'RE ON A DOWNSLIDE. BUT THERE'S MORE  DOWNSIDE RISK OF WEATHER STAYS WELL WITH CORN LOOK TO SELL RALLIES  WE WOULDN'T SELL INTO THIS DIP.  ALL RIGHT. NOT SELLING TO THIS DIP. THANKS BRIAN.  CHRIS. I'LL SWITCH GEARS AND JUST GO TO THE MACRO TRENDS THAT WE'RE  SEEING. YOU KNOW WE'RE SEEING A LOT MORE ACTIVITY IN THE  INVESTMENT COMMUNITY. WE KNOW COMPANIES ARE GROWING.  UNEMPLOYMENT'S GETTING LOWER AND LOWER AND I THINK RIGHT NOW  THERE'S NOTHING TO SUGGEST THAT THIS IS THIS UPTICK THAT WE'VE SEEN  IS GOING TO NOT CONTINUE WITH INTEREST RATES BEING THIS LOW AND  JUST BEING VERY YOU KNOW PALATABLE FOR PEOPLE TO EXPAND  OPERATIONS. ALL RIGHT.  AS WE SEE LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION LEVELS OF ALL SPECIES INCREASING  AT RECORD LEVELS WE'RE WE'RE MORE AND MORE DEPENDENT ON  EXPORT TRADE.  THE VOLATILITY THAT WE HAVE SEEN IN THE MARKET IN THE LAST HANDFUL  OF YEARS I THINK WE REALLY NEED TO BE THINKING THAT IS THE NEW  NORM AND INSTEAD OF REFLECTING THAT. OK PRICES WILL WORK BACK INTO  A SLOWER PACE. VOLATILE WEEK HERE.  YES, THE NAME OF THE GAME ALRIGHT THANK YOU SO MUCH STAY WITH  US WE'LL TAKE A SHORT BREAK AND THEN JOHN PHIPPS JOINS US NEXT. 

JOHN’S WORLD
DRONES? IS IT A TOY OR A TOOL? HERE'S JOHN PHIPPS.  OVER THE LAST FEW YEARS, YOU COULDN'T FLIP A PAGE IN A FARM  MAGAZINE OR SURF TO AN AG WEBSITE WITHOUT RUNNING INTO AN  EXCITED ARTICLE ABOUT DRONES. HERE IN AUGUST, THIS FASCINATION  WITH THESE FLYING WONDERS IS PEAKING, BECAUSE LET'S FACE IT, IF I  COULD FIND COME WAY TO AVOID WADING THROUGH THIS CORN TO SCOUT  FOR DISEASE AND PESTS OR CHECK THE STAND, I'D TAKE IT. BUT AS MUCH AS I LOVE TECHNOLOGY, I THINK WE MAY BE GOING A  LITTLE BIT OVERBOARD. CONSIDER THIS HEADLINE FROM THE DES MOINES  REGISTER. I'M NOT PICKING ON THE AUTHOR, BUT… SERIOUSLY? BEFORE  WE EMBRACE THIS VIEW OF THE FUTURE, LET'S COMPARE AND CONTRAST  THESE TWO TOOLS. 1. FIRST, CAN IT TAKE COOL VIDEOS? 2. CAN IT PULL IMPLEMENTS? 3. DOES IT HAVE CUPHOLDERS? 4. CAN YOU FIND IT IN A 400 ACRE CORNFIELD AFTER IT BREAKS DOWN? 5. WILL IT WORK IN A 35 MILE PER HOUR WIND? 6. FINALLY, WILL IT GO THROUGH A COMBINE? T WAS CLOSE, BUT YOU CAN SEE THE TRACTOR WINS FOUR TO TWO IN THIS  SCIENTIFIC ANALYSIS. MOREOVER, MY EXPERIENCE IS DRONES ARE VERY  GOOD AT FINDING PROBLEMS, BUT ALMOST NO HELP IN SOLVING THEM. IT  ONLY LEADS TO AGONIZING DECISIONS ABOUT WHETHER THE THREAT IS  WORTH WADING INTO THE FIELD OR POURING GOOD MONEY AFTER BAD. I WILL ADMIT, SCOUTING WITH A DRONE IS MUCH BETTER FOR YOUR LIFE  EXPECTANCY THAN FLYING OVER YOUR FIELDS WITH AN AMATEUR PILOT  BUDDY IN AN ANTIQUE PUDDLE-JUMPER, BUT YOU PROBABLY NEED TO  PRAY MORE OFTEN ANYWAY. I KNOW WHAT SOME OF YOU ARE THINKING, I'M JUST DISSING DRONES  BECAUSE I'M NOT COOL ENOUGH TO OWN ONE. NOTHING COULD BE  FURTHER FROM THE TRUTH.  

TEASE
STILL TO COME, CHANGE IS HARD, ESPECIALLY WHEN  IT'S OUT OF YOUR CONTROL. COMING UP IN OUR FARM  JOURNAL REPORT, WE VISIT A WISCONSIN DAIRY  FORCED TO SELL  AFTER A WISCONSIN  PROCESSOR  STOPPED TAKING 60 PRODUCERS' MILK.   IT'S HEARTACHE AND HOPE FOR HTE FUTURE  AFTER  THE BREAK. 

HEADLINES
WELCOME BACK TO U-S UFARM REPORT THIS WEEKEND.  WE HAVE MUCH MORE AHEAD.FOUR MONTHS AFTER NOTIFED GRASSLAND WOULD NO  LONGER TAKE THEIR MILK, THIS WISCONSIN FAMILY IS  COPING WITH HEARTACHE ADN CHANGE. THE  GRASSLAND AFTERMATH IN OUR FARM JOURNAL  REPORT. AMERICAN COUNTRYSIDE IS HITTING HTE SLOPES... IN  AUGUST! AND DRONES VS TRACTORS-- WHICH IS A BETTER TOOL?  THAT'S CUSTOMER SUPPORT.  NOW FOR THE HEADLINES, THE SAME DAY SOYBEAN  PRICES DROPPED 30 CENTS, PURDUE AND CME COMING  OUT WITH THE LATEST AG BAROMETER SHOWING  PRODUCERS SENTIMENTS REACHING RECORD HIGHS.  THE PURDUE AG BAROMETER HIT ITS HIGHEST LEVEL IN  SEVEN MONTHS, REGISTERING AT 139. .THE BAROMETER ECONOMISTS SAY SENTIMENT THE 400  PRODUCERS WHO ARE SURVEYED IS MARKEDLY MORE  POSITIVE THAN DURING SUMMER OF 2016, WHEN  BAROMETER VALUES WERE MUCH LOWER. YOU HAVE TO GO BACK TO JANUARY OF THIS YEAR. THE SENTIMENT WAS HIGHER UP AROUND 150 POINTS. IT'S ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT A YEAR AGO AT THIS POINT LAST SUMMER SENTIMENT WAS REALLY TRADING BETWEEN THE MID-90S AND LOW 100.0 SO SENTIMENT IS IMPROVED THROUGHOUT THE SUMMER AND IT'S MUCH IMPROVED COMPARED TO LAST. [18.8]

QUESTIONS ABOUT EXPECTATIONS OF COMMODITY  PRICES SHOWED THE FARMERS ARE MORE OPTIMISTIC  ABOUT GRAIN AND OILSEED PRICES THAN EARLIER THIS YEAR.

NAFTA/IMMIGRATION POLICY
WE'RE LESS THAN TWO WEEKS AWAY FROM THE  OFFICIAL LAUNCH OF NAFTA RENEGOATIATIONS, AND  MEXICAN OFFICIALS LAYING OUT THEIR PRIORITIES FOR  THE TRADE TALKS. OFFICIALS SAY THEY WAN AN EXPEDITED NEGOTIATION  THAT MAINTAINS THE BENEFITS MEXICO SAW SINCE  STRIKING THE TRADE DEAL OVER TWENTY YEARS AGO.  THE GOVERNMENT ALSO MAKING CLEAR THEY WANT TO  STRENGTHEN THE ENERGY SECTOR. BUT ONE POINT THAT WILL RUB THE CURRENT ADMINSTRATION WRONG  IS ABOU THE DIPSUT RESOLUTION MECHANIMISM.  THAT'S WHAT HINDERED THE U-S FROM PURSUING ANTI- DUMPING AND ANTI-SUBSIDY CASES. MEXICO ONLY  WANTS TO SEE THE RESOLUTION STRENGHTEN. WHILE IN MEXICO LAYING GROUNDWORK FOR THE  UPCOMING NAFTA NEGOTIATIONS, AG SECRETARY  SONNY PERDUE ALSO TOOK AIM AT THE CURRENT FARM  LABOR VISA PROGRAM IN THIS COUNTR DURING A JOINT NEWS CONFERENCE PERDUE SAY THIS  COUNTRY'S VISA PROGRAM FOR FARM WORKERS IS -  QUOTING NOW -  " ESSENTIALLY UNWORKABLE." . THE AG SECRETARY DOESN'T EXPECT FARM LABOR  IMMIGRATION TO COME-UP DURING THE NAFTA TALKS  LATER THIS MONTH.  PRESIDENT TRUMP THROWING SUPPORT BEHIND  LEGISLATION THAT WOULD PLACE NEW LIMITS ON  LEGAL IMMIGRATION AND SEEK A SYSTEM BASED ON  MERIT AND JOB SKILLS. . THE WHITE HOUSE SAID THAT ONLY ONE IN 15  IMMIGRANTS COMES TO THE U-S BECAUSE OF THEIR  SKILLS, AND THE CURRENT SYSTEM FAILS TO PLACE A  PRIORITY ON HIGHLY SKILLED IMMIGRANTS. < "THIS COMPETITIVE APPLICATION PROCESS WILL FAVOR APPLICANTS WHO  CAN SPEAK ENGLISH, FINANCIALLY SUPPORT THEMSELVES AND THEIR  FAMILIES AND DEMONSTRATE SKILLS THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO OUR  ECONOMY. THE RAISE ACT PREVENTS NEW MIGRANTS AND NEW  IMMIGRANTS FROM COLLECTING WELFARE AND PROTECTS U.S. WORKERS  FROM BEING DISPLACED."> THE AMERICAN FARM BUREAU TOLD SAYS IT IS  STUDYING THE LEGISLATION IN REGARD TO HOW IT MAY  IMPACT THE CLEAR AGRICULTURAL LABOR NEEDS OF  OUR FARMERS AND RANCHERS.

GRAIN BIN COLLAPSE
WITH HARVEST SEVERAL WEEKS AWAY, AN INDIANA  FARM FAMILY NEEDS TO FIND A BACK-UP PLAN FOR ITS  GRAIN STORAGE FOLLOWING A SPECTACULAR INCIDENT  ON THEIR FARM. . A GRAIN HOPPER STARTED TO CRUMPLE...EVENTUALLY  TOPPLING OVER IN DRAMATIC FASHION.  THE VIDEO SPEAKS A THOUSAND WORDS WITH A GIRL I GUESS THAT THE BLAST. WHENEVER IT FELT IT HAD A HECK OF A BLAST. I MEAN THE BLAST WENT 200 FEET AWAY RIP AND 200 FEET AROUND IT WAS VASTLY UNBELIEVABLE. WHITE SAYS HARVEST STARTS IN THREE-TO-FOUR  WEEKS. HE SAYS THEY'VE LOST NOT ONLY THE HOPPER  BUT HUNDREDS OF FEET OF AUGER AND THE GRAIN  DUMP. HE CALLS IT A "MAJOR, MAJOR LOSS." . THE VIDEO - AS YOU MIGHT IMAGINE - HAS GONE VIRAL. 

WEATHER
THAT'S IT FOR NEWS. METEOROLOGIST CINDI CLAWSON  JOINS US ONCE AGAIN. CINDI IS LOOKS LIKE DRY  CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING OUT IN THE PACIFIC  NORTHWEST. YEAH TYNE WE HAVE SEEN A LITTLE DRYNESS EXPANDING OUT THERE IN  THE WARM TEMPERATURES THAT WE'VE BEEN SEEING OUT THERE HAVE  NOT BEEN HELPING WITH THAT. AND WE CONTINUE TO SEE A RIDGE IN THE  JET STREAM AS WE FINISH OFF THE WEEKEND IN THE NORTHWESTERN  UNITED STATES WHILE A TROUGH WILL EXIT THE EASTERN PART WE'VE HAD  SOME PRETTY COOL AIR IN PLAY BUT WE'RE GOING TO SEE THINGS KIND OF  EVENING OUT AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD OF US. AND  TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN  PART OF THE UNITED STATES. AND WE STILL HAVE THAT RIDGE IN THE  WESTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES AS WELL HEADING ON INTO  SATURDAY. KIND OF STATUS QUO THEN ON THOSE TEMPERATURES IS  EVERYTHING JUST KIND OF EVENS OUT. AS FAR AS THE 30 DAY  TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED WE'RE LOOKING AT MAYBE SOME  COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ALL  THE WAY DOWN TOWARDS TEXAS THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES  LOOKING A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE IN THE FAR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND  IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND OUT INTO THE WEST AS FAR AS  PRECIPITATION ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO  THE SOUTHWEST BUT A LITTLE ON THE DRY SIDE AND SOME OF THOSE VERY  DRY AREAS ALREADY T.  THANKS, CINDI. 

FARM JOURNAL REPORT
BACK IN APRIL, GRASSLAND DAIRY PRODUCTS, A  PROCESSOR IN WISCONSIN, GAVE NOTICE TO DOZENS  OF DAIRIES THEIR CONTRACTS WOULD BE TERMINATED  AT THE END OF THE MONTH.  THE DECISION DUE TO A CHANGE IN CANADIAN IMPORT  RULES FOR A PRODUCT CALLED ULTRA FILTERED MILK.  58 DAIRIES IN THE STATE WERE DROPPED. ALL BUT 2 FOUND NEW PROCESSORS. BETSY JIBBEN SPOKE WITH ONE OF THOSE FAMILIES  ABOUT LIFE SINCE THE DROP.  A DARK, QUIET PARLOR SITS EMPTY...  <CAN HEAR THE DOOR OPEN>   <"MIC'ED UP AND OPENING DOOR: YEAH, I DON'T COME IN HERE  MUCH," - MAKE SURE LIGHTS TURN ON> QUITE UNUSUAL FOR A DAIRY MILKERS, PIPELINE, AND FARM HELP - ALL OUT OF  SIGHT.  BUT THAT'S THE CASE FOR QUALA -T ACRES IN  JEFFERSON WISCONSIN. <"ALL THE HARD WORK WE PUT IN TO GET THIS BUILT UP LIKE THIS, THEN  YOU GET A LETTER AND IT CAN CHANGE YOUR LIFE IN A SECOND,"> <"BACK IN APRIL, GRASSLAND DAIRY PRODUCTS NOTIFIED ITS PRODUCERS IT  WOULD NOT ACCEPT ANY MORE MILK BY THE END OF THE MONTH.  MAJORITY OF DAIRIES FOUND A NEW HOME, WHILE THE CHWALA'S  DECIDED TO SELL."> <CAN HEAR HER TAKING A HEAVY BREATH - "IT'S HARD. I MISS THE  COWS." BREATH "COULDN'T DO MUCH WITH THEM ANYMORE BUT I MISS  THEM." HEAR HEAVY BREATH> WILL HAVE TO EDIT AND SEQUENCE FROM 6966 TO 6967 FOR IT TO ALL  WORK>  SHORT NOTICE AND LIMITED ANSWERS <"IT WAS WE GOT THE LETTER AND WE WERE ON OUR OWN"> BROUGHT A STRING OF SLEEPLESS NIGHTS...  <" I SEE A MILK TRUCK.. AND I SEE THE DAIRY MAGAZINES COME AND -  SHE IS TEARING UP AND TAKES A BREATH "> HOURS ON THE PHONE TO FIND A NEW PROCESSOR  FAST.  <"EVERYONE SAID THEY WERE FULL."> <PUT PICTURE HERE OF LAST TRUCK LEAVING OPERATION FULL OF CATTLE -  STILL PHOTO THEY SENT ME> THE TWO WHO SHOWED CATTLE TOGETHER IN 4H,  TURNED THAT PASSION INTO A PARTNERSHIP AND THEN  A FAMILY BUSINESS. 150 MILK COWS AND 80  YOUNGSTOCK. <" "WE TRIED AND TRIED FOR WEEKS,"> FORCED TO SELL OUT.. NOW GETTING BY RAISING A  NEIGHBOR'S CATTLE.  <"I LIKE CATTLE BUT THEY AINT LIKE HAVING YOUR OWN"> THE CHWALA'S ARE KEEPING THEIR OWN CALVES AND  YOUNGER STOCK BUT THEY'LL BE OUT OF BUSINESS  ALTOGETHER IN A MATTER OF YEARS.  CHWALA SAYS THE DAY BEFORE THE FAMILY SOLD  THEIR FINAL LOAD, THEY RECEIVED A LAST MINUTE  OFFER.. ONE THEY COULDN'T TAKE.  <"IF WE DIDN'T SELL THE COWS WE WOULD HAVE BEEN DUMPING THE  MILLK. THEY WERE GOING TO GIVE US BASE RATE PLUS WE HAD TO PAY  FOR ALL OF THE HAULING. AND SO WE PROBABLY WOULDN'T EVEN GET 14  BUCKS A HUNDRED,">  <"THEY TOLD US RIGHT OUT, THAT IF SOMEONE PICKS YOUR UP, START TO  LOOK FOR SOMEONE ELSE TO TAKE IT BECAUSE IT'S PROBABLY ONLY GOING  TO BE THREE OR SIX MONTHS,"> <"WE HAVE NOT COME TO THE END OF THOSE SHORT-TERM CONTRACTS. AS  FAR AS I KNOW, PRODUCERS HAVE NOT BEEN NOTIFIED IF THEY WILL BE  RENEWED OR CONTINUED RELATIONSHIP. HOWEVER, I THINK THE  DETERMINING FACTOR IS WHAT THE MARKETS FEEL LIKE AS WE GET TOWARD  THAT TIME THAT HTE SHORT-TERM CONTRACTS ARE FINISHED,">    A REPRESENTATIVE WITH THE WISCONSIN DEPARTMENT  OF AGRICULTURE, TRADE AND CONSUMER  PROTECTION. SAYS EACH PROCESSOR WORKED OUT  ITS OWN DEALS. SOME OF THOSE ARE SHORT TERM  CONTRACTS BUT THAT DOESN'T NECESSARILY MEAN A  TERMINATION.  GRASSLAND DAIRY PRODUCTS HAD SAID ALL ALONG  THEY HAD TO DROP PRODUCERS  EARLIER THIS SPRING DUE TO CANADA'S POLICY ON  ULTRA FILTERED MILK - SOMETHING THAT COULD  HAPPEN AGAIN TO ANOTHER COMPANY. <"THIS COULD HAPPEN TO OTHER PROCESSORS, YES."> WESTERS SAYS THE COMPANY IS STILL LOOKING FOR A  NEW MARKET FOR THAT PRODUCT. BUT CANADA HAS  NOT CHANGED ITS POLICY  <IN JULY, CANADA ANNOUNCED THEY WERE GOING TO INCREASE THE  QUOTA IN 5 IN THE BIGGEST PROVIDENCES. THEY DO THIS TO FIT THEIR  BUTTER NEEDS BUT AT THE SAME TIME THIS MADE THEY LONGER ON  SKIM MILK AND THAT'S EXACTLY THE PRODUCT WE WERE EXPORTING.  SINCE THE INCREASED THEIR MILK SUPPLY, THAT'S EVEN LESS OF AN  INCENTIVE TO WORK WITH US ON INCREASING MARKET ACCESS,">  TURNING A TOPIC AS IN-TANGIBLE AS TRADE INTO REAL  LIFE FOR THESE LIFE LONG PRODUCERS <"NOT BE A FARMER? NO, I'D STILL BE A FARMER,"> AS THE QUALA'S CLOSE THE DOOR ON THE FUTURE OF  THEIR DAIRY, THEY HOPE OTHERS DON'T HAVE TO DO  THE SAME...  <"I JUST WISH THE REST OF HTE FARMERS THAT GOT SHUT OFF...(KEEP  PAUSE.. TAKE OUT STUMBLES INBETWEEN) I HOPE THEY MAKE IT,"> <END WITH SAME CLIP IN DARKNESS>  REPORTING IN JEFFERSON, WISCONSIN, I'M BETSY  JIBBEN.  WISCONSIN-BASED DAIRY BUSINESS MILK MARKETING COOPERATIVE  SAYS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CO'OP'S MEMBERS  DROPPED BY GRASSLAND HAVE FOUND LONG-TERM  AGREEMENTS WITH OTHER PROCESSORS---  CONTRACTS BEYOND 6 MONTHS. THE QUAL-A'S SAY THEIR SON WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE  OVER THE FARM.  THEY HOPE THEIR GRANDSON WILL CARRY ON WHAT'S  LEFT OF THE FAMILY'S LEGACY AS WELL. UP NEXT, JOHN PHIPPS.CROP REPORTS ARE THEY WORTHLESS

CUSTOMER SUPPORT
AS WE GEAR UP FOR USDA'S NEXT CROP PRODUCTION  REPORT, A VIEWER HAS A QUESTION ABOUT WHEAT  NUMBERS. JOHN.  SUE STARR SENT A NOTE REGARDING THE WHEAT CROP REPORTS: "HOW CAN YOU ACCURATELY PREDICT THE 2017 WHEAT HARVEST WITHOUT  CONSIDERING: SMALL NUMBER ACRES OF WHEAT PLANTED ; THOUSANDS  OF WHEAT ACRES ALREADY BALED FOR LIVESTOCK FEED; ABANDONED  ACRES DUE TO THE DROUGHT AND EXTREMELY SMALL YIELD DUE TO THE  DROUGHT. YOU ARE NOT REPORTING THE WHOLE PICTURE." SUE, THANK YOU FOR YOUR FEEDBACK. ALL OF US HERE AND I'M SURE  OUR MARKET EXPERTS HAVE HEARD THIS CRITICISM NOT ONLY THIS YEAR  BUT EVERY YEAR. SOME ANALYSTS EVEN THINK USDA ATTEMPTS TO  ESTIMATE THE CROP ARE A MISTAKE ENTIRELY. BUT WHAT TOOK ME A  LONG TIME TO REALIZE IS THAT THESE CROP SIZE NUMBERS ARE NOT  INTENDED TO BE THE DEFINITIVE WORD ON HOW MUCH GRAIN IS OUT  THERE. THEY ARE NUMBERS THAT WE GET WHEN WE DO THE SAME YIELD  ESTIMATING STEPS EVERY YEAR. IN-SEASON CROP ESTIMATES SHOULD  BE WEIGHED AGAINST PREVIOUS ESTIMATES, NOT AGAINST ABSOLUTE  ACCURACY. BY LOOKING AT THE LONG HISTORY OF THESE ESTIMATES,  FARMERS AND TRADERS CAN PLACE THEIR OWN VALUE ON THEIR WORTH.  THE KEY IS CONSISTENCY, MORE THAN ACCURACY.  HOWEVER, AS FOR ACCURACY, YOU CAN FIND GRAPHS LIKE THIS TO HELP  YOU DECIDE HOW WELL ESTIMATORS DO.  THIS IS FOR THE MAY WASDE  WHEAT YIELD ESTIMATE. VALUES ABOVE THE LINE MEAN THE FINAL YIELD  WAS HIGHER THAN THE MAY ESTIMATE. THE AVERAGE WAS 2 PERCENT  HIGHER. WHILE WE ALL CAN AND DO ARGUE WITH HOW THESE ESTIMATES ARE  CALCULATED, IT REALLY DOESN'T MATTER HOW THEY DO IT. WHAT MATTERS  IS IF ARE THEY ACCURATE AT ALL. MY THINKING IS IF THEY DO IT THE SAME  WAY EACH TIME, HISTORY CAN TELL US SOMETHING ABOUT THAT  ACCURACY.  THANKS, JOHN. AND IF YOU HAVE  A QUESTION OR  COMMENT, EMAIL JOHN AT MAILBAG AT U-S FARM  REPORT DOT COM.

TEASE
COMING UP NEXT, ANDREW MCCREA TAKES AS TO  ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS YOU CAN GO IN MICHIGAN TO  SEE WHY WHAT SOME MAY SEE AS A SLIPPERY SLOPE,  OTHERS SEE AS A SPORT. AMERICAN COUNTRYSIDE IS  NEXT. 

AMERICAN COUNTRYSIDE
NORMALLY WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT SNOW SKIING, IT'S  IN TEH DEAD OF WINTER WHEN SEVERAL FEET OF  POWDER LINE THE MOUNTAINS. BUT IN UPPER  MICHIGAN, MASTERING THE SLOPES IS ON THEIR MIND  YEAR-ROUND... AND IT'S A TREAT FOR ALL AGES.  THERE'S A GOOD CHANCE THAT MOST OF WHAT YOU KNOW ABOUT SKI  JUMPING COMES FROM ABC'S WIDE WORLD OF SPORTS..   WOW THAT WAS WAY BETTER.   BUT GARY RASMUSSEN SAYS IT'S NOT THAT SCARY, (SHE'S JUMPING)  ESPECIALLY FOR THE YOUNG KIDS HE HELPS LEARN THE SPORT THROUGHOUT  THE YEAR IN ISHPEMING, MICHIGAN. THIS IS THE HOME OF THE  NATIONAL SKI HALL OF FAME…A HALL THAT INCLUDES GARY'S DAD  WILBURT.  HE ACTUALLY SET THE RECORD ON SUICIDE HILL IN 1946 ON HIS VERY  FIRST COMPETITIVE JUMP AT AGE FIFTEEN.      ( GARY RASMUSSEN  GARY'S DAD HAD HIS EYES SET ON THE U.S. OLYMPIC SKI JUMPING  TEAM. HE WAS SERVING IN KOREA IN 1951 WHEN THE TRYOUTS WHERE  HELD, GOT LEAVE AND MADE THE TEAM.  AWESOME TODAY GARY COACHES KIDS LEARNING THE SPORT. THIS IS A VERY  IMPORTANT PLACE IN THE SKI JUMPING WORLD. THE ISHPEMING SKI  CLUB WAS BEGUN IN 1887 AND IN 1925 THEY BUILT WHAT IS CALLED  SUICIDE HILL.   A SKIER CAME OFF, HANS ANDERSON, AND HANS FELL AND HAD A  PRETTY BAD ACCIDENT ON HIS FIRST JUMP ON THE HILL AND A JOURNALIST IN  THE CROWD AT THE TIME SAID 'OH MY GOD ANYONE THAT JUMPS THAT IS  COMMITTING SUICIDE AND THE NAME STUCK.  THE CLUB HAS HAD A CONTINUOUS ANNUAL SKI JUMPING COMPETITION  HERE FOR OVER 130 YEARS. YOU'D THINK GARY WOULD GET A BREAK  FROM COACHING IN THE SUMMER. ACTUALLY IT'S ONE OF HIS BUSIEST  TIMES OF YEAR AS THEY SIMPLY WET DOWN THE TRACK AND LAND ON  PLASTIC.  (IT CRITICALLY IMPORTANT FOR SERIOUS SKI JUMPERS TO BE OUT IN THE  SUMMER BECAUSE WE CAN JUMP EVERY SINGLE TIME WE SCHEDULE  TRAINING. MAYBE YOU BELIEVE SKI JUMPING IS ONLY A SPORT FOR PEOPLE NOT  MATURE ENOUGH TO KNOW BETTER. GARY SAYS THAT ISN'T NECESSARILY  THE CASE.    I BELIEVE FOUR, FIVE, SIX YEARS OLD IS OPTIMAL ALTHOUGH IF A DECENT  ATHLETE WHO IS 10, 12 OR 14 PERHAPS IS ALREADY A DOWNHILL SKIER  AND A LITTLE BIT OF A DAREDEVIL WE HAVE SEEN THOSE KIDS COME OUT  AND EXCEL. GARY LOVES HELPING KIDS LEARN TO FLY ON THIS HISTORIC HILL.    FIRST THING YOU GOT TO DO IS GET YOUR SKIS AS WIDE AS THAT TRACK.  AND THESE KIDS LOVE THE FEELING RUSHING DOWN THE TRACK AND INTO  THE AIR.   IT ALLOWS ME TO BE ABLE TO FLY. WHY DO YOU LIKE FLYING?  CAUSE I REALLY LIKE BIRDS...(SMILES). AND THIS NOTION THAT THE SPORT IS DANGEROUS…WELL THAT MAY BE  MORE FICTION THAN FACT.   IT'S FAR LESS DANGEROUS THAT ALPINE SKIING. THEY'VE KEPT STATISTICS  AT PARK CITY AND LAKE PLACID AT THE OLYMPIC COMPLEXES AND THE  NUMBER OF LOST DAYS OF PARTICIPATION DUE TO INJURY IN SKI JUMPING  IS A FRACTION OF DOWNHILL SKIING AND ACTUALLY MORE IN LINE WITH THE  NUMBER OF LOST DAYS IN CROSS COUNTRY SKIING. YOU MAY THINK OF SKI JUMPING AS A WINTER SPORT, BUT IT'S TRULY YEAR  ROUND AND FOR 132 YEARS IT'S THE ISHPEMING SKI CLUB THAT IS TRULY  TRAINING SOME OF THE TOP WINTER ATHLETES IN THE NATION. TRAVELING  THE COUNTRYSIDE, IN ISHPEMING, MICHIGAN, I'M ANDREW MCCREA. THIS IS MOTIVATING ME TO GET THE GIRLS STARTED  EARLY! COOL STORY, THANKS ANDREW. YOU CAN HEAR MORE OF ANDREW'S TRAVELS ON  AMERICAN COUNTRYSIDE DOT COM. STAY WITH US, TRACTOR TALES IS NEXT. 

TRACTOR TALES
WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES FOLKS!  THIS WEEK WE'RE IN WESTERN  OHIO FOR A UNIQUE PIECE OF EQUIPMENT. BRUCE BAKER HAD THIS  1951 UNI-TOW RESTORED AND PAINTED.  IT RUNS ON A FARMALL CUB ENGINE AND WAS THOUGHT TO HAVE BEEN USED IN AIRPORTS TOWING LUGGAGE CARTS. IT'S A TRACTOR LIKE THEY USE AT AIRPORTS AND IT'S PRETTY RARE AS FAR AS  I KNOW THERE'S ONLY ABOUT 300 LEFT IN UNITED STATES IT'S IN 1951. IT  IS MADE BY A COMPANY BY THE NAME OF HANDSEL GREEN BUT IT'S GOT  A FARMALL CUB ENGINE TRANSMISSION AND REAR END BUT IT'S BEEN  SHORTENED UP SO IT'S GOT A REAL SHORT WHEEL BASE SO IT'S PRETTY  RARE AND UNUSUAL. I WOULD ASSUME THAT YOU'D LIKE AN AIRPORT TO  PULL THE LUGGAGE TRUCKS AROUND. I HAVE HAD IT FOR ABOUT 35 YEARS.  I BOUGHT IT AT A SALVAGE YARD TO REPLACE THE MOTOR AND IT WOULD  HAVE APPROXIMATELY 10 HORSEPOWER THE SAME AS A STANDARD  FARMALL CUB AND IT WAS MADE FROM LIKE 47 UP TO THE 50S. THE  LATER ONES HAD A BIGGER A LITTLE MORE HORSEPOWER BUT THAT'S THE  SAME CUBIC INCH BUT JUST MORE COMPRESSION RATIO THAN A BIGGER  CARBURETOR. WE'RE NOT SURE WHAT THE ORIGINAL COLOR WAS. WE  FIGURED IT WOULD PROBABLY BE IN EITHER YELLOW OR POSSIBLY AN  ORANGE. MY BROTHER LIVES JUST DOWN THE ROAD USE IT FOR SEVERAL YEARS TO PULL THESE WAGONS AROUND FOR HIS AUGER AND INTO THE  GRAIN LEG AND HE PULLED IT OFF AND IT WAS VERY IT HAD A BIG HEAVY  WEIGHT BEHIND THE AXLE ONE IN ONE FRONT. SO IT WOULD PULL A LOT  MORE THAN AN AVERAGE CUB BECAUSE OF ITS WEIGHT.  WHAT WE  RESTORED DISTRACTOR WE PAINTED THE BASIC TRACTOR ITSELF YELLOW BUT  EVERYTHING THAT WAS MADE BY INTERNATIONAL HARVESTER WE PAINTED  RED SO THIS WOULD BE THE IDENTICAL ENGINE AND AS AN EARLIER  FARMALL CUB. AND THE TRANSMISSION IS THE SAME AS EARLY FARMALL  CUB THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS IT'S GOT A REAL SHORT CLUTCH HOUSING.  WOULD YOU LIKE ME TO START IT? SURE.

COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE
TODAY'S COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE GOES TO THE  JEFFERS BAPTIST CHURCH, IN JEFFERS, MINNESOTA,  CELEBRATING ITS 100TH ANNIVERSARY LAST WEEKEND.  THE CHURCH WAS REBUILT AFTER A 1998 RIPPED  THROUGH THE AREA, BUT THE CONGREGATION IS STILL  STRONG. OUR THANKS TO CHARLES GRANT FOR  SHARING THEIR STORY.  STAY WITH US - FROM THE FARM PHOTOS ARE NEXT.

FROM THE FARM
IT'S HARVEST TIME IN CALIFORNIA. DON CAMERON SAYS  PROCESSED TOMATO HARVEST IS IN FULL SWING NEAR  HELM CALIFORNIA. AT TERRANOVA RANCH, HE SAYS  THEY FEED 200,000 PEOPLE FOR A FULL YEAR WITH  WHAT THEY GROW THERE. AND, CONGRATULATIONS TO OUR JULY PHOTO WINNER,  CHRIS HOLMES! HE PHOTOGRAPHED HIS FRIEND TONY  GALOW HARVESTING WHEAT IN BISBEE, NORTH DAKOTA. IF YOU HAVE A PICTURE OF VIDEO YOU'D LIKE TO SEND  IN, SEND THOSE TO MAILBAG-AT-U-S-FARM-REPORT-DOT- COM OR CHECK US OUT ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER.

CLOSE
FROM ALL OF US AT U.S. FARM REPORT, I'M TYNE  MORGAN. THANK YOU FOR WATCHING U-S FARM  REPORT.  BE SURE TO JOIN US RIGHT HERE AGAIN NEXT  WEEK, AS WE WORK TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION. HAVE  A GREAT WEEKEND, EVERYONE.  

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