USFR Weekly Recap - December 2-3, 2017

December 2, 2017 03:30 AM
 
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TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
DECEMBER 2-3, 2017


HEADLINES
WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M TYNE MORGAN,  AND HERE'S WHAT'S IN STORE THIS WEEKEND.  TAX REFORM ENTERED THE FINAL STAGES THIS WEEK...  BUT THOSE TAX CHANGES AREN'T PERMANENT.  <IF WE GET A CHANGE IN THE WHITE HOUSE, A CHANGE IN CONGRESS  IT MAY NOT EVEN LAST 10 YEARS> FARM CPA PAUL NEIFFER SAYS THERE ARE STEPS YOU  CAN TAKE NOW.  IT'S AN ALL WOMEN ROUNDTABLE FROM EXECUTIVE  WOMEN IN AGRICULTURE. CAN CORN FIND ENOUGH  NEWS TO RALLY IN THE NEW YEAR?  WELL IT'S NOT GOING TO BE A BIG RALLY WHEN IT HAPPENS  UNLESS THERE'S TWO EVENTS THAT HAPPEN AT THE SAME TIME > <"I'M BETSY JIBBEN. FLORIDA CITRUS GROWERS ARE TAKING A HIT DUE TO  CITRUS GREENING. WE TALK WITH CALIOFRNIA PRODUCERS ABOUT WHAT  THEY'RE DOING TO PREVENT IT."> THAT'S OUR FARM JOURNAL REPORT.  AND AN HISTORIC EVENT, WITH A TRAGIC ENDING,  COMMERATED IN A POPULAR SONG. WE TRAVEL WITH  ANDREW MCCREA.  <U.S. FARM REPORT- BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE DEPENDABLE, LONG  LASTING, CHEVY SILVERADO.>

EPA RFS VOLUMES
NOW FOR THE NEWS, AFTER EARLIER RUMBLINGS THAT  THE ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY MAY SLASH  ETHANOL VOLUME REQUIREMENTS, EPA SAYS ITS  HONORING CONGRESS' COMMITTMENT TO SUPPORTING  AMERICAN MADE ETHANOL.  EPA HOLDING THE RENEABLE FUELS STANDARD, OR  RFS, FLAT FOR 2018 THE RFS IS NOW SET AT 19 POINT 29 GALLONS OF  RENEWABLE FUELES INTO THE GASOLINE AND DIESEL  SUPPLY IN 2018.  THE BREAKDOWN IS 15 BILLION GALLONS OF  CONVENTIONAL CORN-BASED ETAHNOL. 4 POINT 29 OF  ADVANCED BIOFUELS. AND 2 POINT 1 OF BIODIESEL.  EPA ADMINSTRATOR SCOTT PRUITT SAYING, QUOTE,  MAINTAINING THE RE RENWABLE FUELS STANDARD AT  CURRENT LEVELS ENSURES STABILITY IN THE  MARKETPLACE AND FOLLOWS THROUGH WITH MY  COMMITMENT TO MEET THE STATUTORY DEADLINES  AND LEAD THE AGENCY BY UPHOLDING THE RULE OF  LAW, END QUOTE.  GROUPS LIKE THE NATIONAL CHICKEN COUNCIL SAYING  CORN EHTANOL OF ALL BLENDS HAS SATURATED THE  DOMESTIC MARKET AND THE INDUSTRY, AS ETHANOL  CONTINUES TO BE PRODUCED AT A FASTER PACE THAN  CONSUMPTION CAN GROW.  THE AMERICAN SOYBEAN ASSOCIATION SAYS ITS  FRUSTRATED BY THE LACK OF GROWTH FOR BIODESEL. 

USDA ACREAGE, INPUTS
USDA RELEASING SOME LONG TERM PROJECTIONS.  LOOKING AT NEXT SEASON, USDA EXPECTING CORN  AND SOYBEAN ACRES TO BE EQUAL AT 91 MILLION  ACRES A PIECE. WHEAT PLANTINGS ARE ALSO EXPECT TO FALL BY  ANOTHER MILLION ACRES DOWN TO 45 MILLION. AS SOME FARMERS ARE BUSYING MAKE FALL NITROGEN  APPLICATIONS, UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS' GARY  SCHNITKEY SAYS NITROGEN FERTILIZER PRICES HAVE  HIT A 10-YEAR LOW.  FARMERS CAN EXPECT ROUGHLY $400 DOLLARS PER  TON FOR ANHYDROUS AMMONIA. THAT'S DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM LAST YEAR'S MORE  THAN $500 DOLLARS PER TON. HE ATTRIBUTES THE DECREASE TO NEW ANHYDROUS  AMMONIA PLANTS COMING ONLINE AND FEWER U.S.  CORN ACRES. 

DRYNESS CONTINUES TO INTESIFY ACROSS THE  MAJORITY OF THE U-S THIS WEEK.  IN THE SOUTH, THE AREA CONSIDRED ABNORMALLY  DRY IS NOW CONSUMING 72 PERCENT OF HTE AREA...  AN 11 POINT JUMP FROM LAST WEEK.  AND EXTREME DROUGHT SHOWING UP IN ARKSNAS FOR  THE FIRST TIME, WITH A LARGE POCKER COVERING  NEARLY 15 PERCENT OF THE STATE.  MODERATE DROUGHT EXPANDED IN KANSAS, NOW AT 15  PERCENT. UP 14 POINTS FROM LAST WEEK. 

WEATHER
THOSE ARE THE HEADLINES...METEOROLOGIST MIKE  HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH WEATHER... MIKE, THE  ARE RUMBLINGS OF A MAJOR COLD FRONT HEADING  OUR WAY-- HOW WIDESPREAD WILL THAT BE?   TYNE THERE'S NO DOUBT ABOUT IT BY NEXT WEEKEND.  EVERYBODY EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL AT LEAST HAVE SEEN A TASTE OF  WINTER AND SUMMER IS JUST A BLAST OF WINTER. BUT LET'S GO THROUGH  THE DROUGHT MONITOR FIRST WE'RE SEEING OUR FIRST AREA OF EXTREME  DROUGHT SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS THIS WHOLE AREA IS EXPANDED.  LET'S GO BACK A MONTH AND YOU CAN SEE IT WASN'T LOOKING NEARLY  AS BAD BUT WE WERE SAYING WE HAVE TO WATCH THAT AREA AS WE'VE  GONE THROUGH THE LAST MONTH. YOU'VE JUST SEEN THAT AREA EXPAND  PRETTY RAPIDLY AND IT HAS DRIED UP A LITTLE BIT MORE IN PARTS OF THE  SOUTHEAST IT STAYED DRY WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA IN THE  NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. ALL RIGHT LET'S GO DAY BY DAY. THIS IS THE  START OF THE COLD AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. SO A  LITTLE BIT OF SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.  OTHERWISE IT SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE  GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. THAT FIRST COLD FRONT IS ALL THE WAY  DOWN TO TAMPA AND ORLANDO. AND THIS IS VERY COLD AIR FOR THIS  TIME OF THE YEAR COMING ALL THE WAY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. LITTLE  SYSTEMS KIND OF DIVING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PRODUCE  A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW BUT MOST OF THESE ARE GOING TO BE SO WEAK  THEY WON'T BE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT AREAS SO WE'LL HAVE  TO WATCH ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY WHEN THE REALLY FRIGID AIR STARTS TO  COME IN SECOND OR A COLD FRONT KIND OF COMING SOUTHWARD AS  WELL. IT'LL BE COLD ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST BY NEXT FRIDAY.   BUT YOU'LL NOTICE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OUT  WEST. WEST OF THAT STATIONARY FRONT SO IT'S BASICALLY EAST OF THE  CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WE'RE GOING TO FEEL THE COLD THIS WEEK WELL  OVER YOUR LONGER RANGE FORECAST COMING UP IN OUR NEXT HALF HOUR. 

TEASE
WHEN WE COM EBACK, WE'RE OFF TO THE EXECUTIVE  WOMEN IN AGRICULTURE CONFERENCE IN CHICAGO.  IT'S AN ALL WOMEN MARKTEING DISCUSSION. NAOMI  BLOHM, JULIANNE JOHNSTON AND ANGIE SETZER JOIN  ME NEXT. 

ROUNDTABLE 1
WELCOME BACK TO U.S. FARM REPORT THIS WEEK AS I MENTIONED BEFORE THE BREAK WE'RE HEAR FROM THE EXECUTIVE  WOMEN IN AGRICULTURE AND ALWAYS A GREAT CONFERENCE WITH LIKE  MINDED WOMEN IN THE ROOM. A GREAT TURNOUT THIS WEEK THE WORK  CITED FOR THIS PANEL. WE HAVE NAOMI BLOOM JULIANNE JOHNSTON  AND ANGIE SETZER. AND WE'LL START WITH YOU. A LOT OF THESE WOMEN  IN THE ROOM HAVE THE SAME ISSUE THAT WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT  ON THE SHOW FOR FOR A FEW MONTHS. COURTING THE MEN. WE DON'T  KNOW WHAT TO DO AT THIS POINT. YOU KNOW WHAT IS YOUR ADVICE AS  WE SIT HERE AND GOING INTO THE BEGINNING OF DECEMBER.  MY BIGGEST ADVICE IS IF YOU'RE PAYING FOR COMMERCIAL  STORAGE KNOW WHAT YOU'RE TRYING TO GET OUT OF IT. THE FACT REMAINS  IF YOU HAVE CORN ON BASIS YOU'RE LOOKING AT TAKING A ROLE OR YOU  DID TAKE THAT ROLE THIS PAST WEEK THAT COST YOU ABOUT 13 OR 14  CENTS. AND THE BIGGEST THING THAT YOU DON'T WANT TO SEE HAPPEN  IS THE MARCH TOWARD FALL BACK TO WHERE THE DECEMBER BOARD IS  TRADED. SO BE AWARE OF WHAT YOU'RE TRYING TO ACCOMPLISH IF YOU  ARE KICKING BASS'S CONTRACTS DOWN THE ROAD IF YOU'RE PAYING  COMMERCIAL STORAGE KNOW WHAT YOU'RE LOOKING TO TRY TO  ACCOMPLISH OUT OF THAT TOO AND BE AWARE THAT ANY SORT OF REAL  MARKET MOVE MAY BE SEVERAL MONTHS AWAY AND THAT COULD BE A  LOT OF MONEY IN STORAGE THAT COULD BASICALLY EAT UP ANY SORT OF  GAMES THAT WE WOULD SEE. SO MY NUMBER ONE THING THAT I CAN  SAY ABOUT ANYTHING OUT THERE IS IF YOU ARE HOLDING ON TO GRAIN  YOU NEED TO KNOW WHAT YOU'RE TRYING TO ACCOMPLISH. WRITE IT  DOWN TODAY WHEN THINGS SEEM A LITTLE BIT DIRE. SO THAT WAY WHEN  IT HAPPENS YOU KNOW THAT THOSE ARE THE OPPORTUNITIES THAT YOU  WANT TO TAKE AND YOU NEED TO BE REALISTIC ABOUT WHAT  OPPORTUNITIES YOU'RE LOOKING FOR.  WOW WHAT DO WE KEEP HEARING FROM ANALYSTS WHO SAY  CARRY IS YOUR FIREND. CARRY IS YOUR FRIEND.  USE THAT TO YOUR  ADVANTAGE. DO YOU AGREE WITH THAT.   THERE'S A FEW DIFFERENT WAYS YOU CAN WORK WITH THE.  SO ONE WOULD BE USING YOUR CASH MARKET AND GOING OUT  AND DOING A HEDGE TO ARRIVE OUT TO NEXT DECEMBER BECAUSE  YOU'RE STILL IN THE 380 TO 390 LEVEL AND YOU'RE GETTING A START ON  YOUR CASH SALES. ANOTHER WAY YOU CAN WORK TO SELL THE CARRY. IF  YOU HAVE A HIGHER RISK TOLERANCE WOULD BE TO SELL CALL OPTIONS OUT  THE DEFERRED CONTRACTS AND YOU CAN CAPTURE SOME PREMIUM THAT  WAY. THAT IS NOT FOR EVERYONE BY ANY MEANS. IT IS A RISKY POSITION  OF A POTENTIAL MARGIN CALL IF THE MARKET RALLIES DO IT YOU CAN DO IN  THE CASH MARKET FIRST AND THIS POINT IS VERY VALID THOUGH ABOUT  UNDERSTANDING WHAT YOU'RE PAYING FOR STORAGE AND MIGHT BE  OPPORTUNISTIC TO SELL AND RUN WITH AN OPTION STRATEGY BUT THEN  MAKE SURE YOU KNOW WHAT YOUR RATE OF RETURN IS ON THAT CALL  OPTION TO MAKE SURE THAT'S WORTH YOUR WHILE AS WELL.  JULIANNE WHAT IS THE POTENTIAL THAT WE WILL RALLY I MEAN YOU  MENTIONED THAT I MEAN YOU COULD YOU COULD LOSE OUT IF THAT  HAPPENS. BUT REALLY WHERE WE SIT TODAY WHAT'S THE POTENTIAL THAT  THAT REALLY HAPPENED.  WELL IT'S NOT GOING TO BE A BIG RALLY WHEN IT HAPPENS UNLESS  THERE'S TWO EVENTS THAT HAPPEN AT THE SAME TIME BECAUSE WE  COULD BETWEEN NOW AND THE END OF THE YEAR SEE SOME FUNDS  SHORT COVERING FUNDS HOLD A NEAR RECORD NET SHORT POSITION IN THIS  MARKET BUT FUNDS WERE ALSO NEAR RECORD LARGE NET SHORT IN WHEAT  AS WELL. SO WE DECIDED WE WANT TO LIGHTEN THAT LOAD. WE CAN SEE  SOME SHORT COVERING ON FUNDS ARE DEFENDING THEIR LONG POSITION  IN THE SOYBEAN MARKET AND THAT'S HELPED KEEP THE SOYBEAN  MARKET UP A LITTLE BIT BUT FOR THE CORN MARKET THE DEMAND IS WELL- KNOWN. WE AREN'T GETTING A DEMAND SURPRISE. WE REALLY NEEDED  TO BE IN SURPRISE AND THAT WOULD HELP SUPPORT THIS MARKET BUT IT  WON'T PROVIDE A LARGE RALLY AT THIS TIME.  YES. I MEAN THE ONE THING THAT'S IMPORTANT ABOUT QUITTING  OVER THE PHONE SHORT WHICH IS YOU COULD SEE THAT GENERATOR RALLY  OR AT LEAST THAT TELLS US THAT YOU KNOW PERHAPS THEY'RE RUNNING  OUT OF AMMUNITION IN MUNITION TO SELL.  THE REALITY IS THOUGH IS THAT IF YOU HOLD THE SHORT POSITION  WITH THE CARRY IN THE MARKET THAT EVERYONE LOVES TO TALK ABOUT IT  BENEFITS YOU IF YOU'RE SHORT THE MARKET. YOU HAVE TO BUY THE  PIECE AND SELL THE MARGIN THEN YOU SELL FIVE IN MARCH AND SELL THE  MAY AND SO TO HAVE A SHORT POSITION YOU KNOW PRIOR TO THE PRE- OPS AND ALL PRE-ACTION ALL DURING THAT TIME PERIOD YOU COULD  MAINTAIN A CONSTANT SHORT IN THE MARKET AND A LOT OF TIMES YOU  SAW THAT THAT SHORT IN THE MARKET REMAIN BECAUSE OF THE FACT THAT  IT REALLY WAS BENEFICIAL TO THE FUNDS TO JUST KIND OF CONTINUE TO  KEEP THAT POSITION.  WE'RE SEEING THAT THE NEXT CONTRACT WHEN THE DECEMBER  CONTRACT GOES OFF WE'RE SEEING MARCH COME DOWN TO WHERE  DECEMBER WAS TRADING. SO THAT'S WHY IT'S IMPORTANT TO TAKE  ADVANTAGE OF THE CARRY IN THE MARKET BECAUSE WITH LARGE  SUPPLIES AND LARGE GLOBAL SUPPLIES THE MARKET JUST HAS A  TENDENCY TO DEFLATE AS THAT NEXT CONTRACT COMES ON BOARD.   JULIE YOU MENTIONED THAT WE NEEDED TO ME IN SURPRISE.  AND YOU MENTIONED ETHANOL WE'VE BEEN HEARING SOME SOME  SOME THINGS ABOUT CHINA AND IN INCREASING THE MEETING THERE  BUT SOME ANALYSTS THINK WE'RE NOT GOING TO SEE THAT MAYBE UNTIL  2019 BECAUSE THAT MANDATE IS IN PLACE 20 20. DO YOU THINK THAT  THAT HAPPENS SOONER.   I THINK WE'RE STARTING TO SEE IT HAPPEN SOONER BECAUSE  CHINA IS BUYING CORN THIS WEEK. CHINA IS IMPORTING ETHANOL AND  THEY'RE AT 20 PERCENT. CAPACITY FOR WHAT THEY HAVE FOR FUEL THAT IS  GOING INTO ETHANOL AND IF THEY WANT TO GET THE REST OF THAT CORN  ETHANOL INTO THE FUEL IT'S GOING TO TAKE AN ADDITIONAL BILLION  BUSHELS OF CORN EVERY YEAR TO MAKE THAT HAPPEN. AND WE ARE  SEEING CHINA CHINA IMPORTED 11 CUBIC METERS OF 11000. YEAH.  AND THE OTHER THING TOO BESIDES CHINA IS THAT JAPAN NOW IS  IMPORTING OUR ETHANOL. AND THAT WAS A BIG DEAL BECAUSE THEY'VE  ONLY BEEN BUYING BRAZILIAN THE SUGAR ETHANOL AND SO ON THEY'RE  AND TO SAY US YOU'RE PART OF IT TOO.   ALL RIGHT WELL WE NEED TO TAKE A QUICK BREAK BUT WHEN WE  COME BACK THERE WAS ALSO SOME TALK ABOUT CHINA WITH CHEESE  AND LOWERING THE TARIFFS THERE SO WHAT POSSIBLY THAT COULD MEAN  AND DAIRY PRICES WILL DO THAT WHEN WE COME BACK ON U.S. FARM  REPORT. 

ROUNDTABLE 2
WELCOME BACK TO US FARM REPORT AGAIN HERE FROM EWA  BEFORE YOU MOVE OVER TO LIVESTOCK LET'S TALK FOR WEEKS.  NOT REALLY SOME EXCITING THINGS THEY'RE TALKING ABOUT LATELY  BUT IN YOUR KIND OF BULLSHIT WE'VE BEEN 14 I AM THE ONLY PERSON IN  THE WORLD THAT IS YOU KNOW AND I'M OK WITH THAT.  YOU KNOW WE WERE TALKING ABOUT CHINA GOING INTO THE  BREAK AND WHAT THEY'VE GOT GOING ON WITH CORN WHICH IS TRUE  WE'RE SEEING MUCH CORN ENDING STOCKS ARE DOWN ALMOST A BILLION  BUSHEL THIS YEAR SO THEY'RE STARTING TO CHEW THROUGH THAT. THE  FACT REMAINS THAT CHINA RIGHT NOW IS SITTING ON 48 PERCENT OF THE  WORLD'S WHEAT STOCKS 40 PERCENT THAT'S ALMOST HALF RIGHT. AND  NONE OF THAT IS GOING TO MAKE IT INTO THE GLOBAL PIPELINE. SO WE'RE  REALLY JUST ONE PRODUCTION HICCUP AWAY. WE STARTED TO SEE SOME  ISSUES DEVELOP WITH AUSTRALIA. WE'VE GOT THE UNUSUAL WEATHER  PATTERN THAT'S IN PLACE MAYBE IT'S MILD BUT IT'S STILL THERE. SOUTHERN  PLAINS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE BIT DRIER AND I FEEL THAT WE'LL SEE  PROBABLY THE LOWEST WHEAT ACREAGE AFTER WINTER WHEAT ACREAGE.  SO YOU KNOW REALITY IS YOU KNOW WE SAW IT HAPPEN. IT'S VERY EASY  TO GO FROM BURDENSOME TO FEAST OR FAMINE SO TO SPEAK CAN WE  AND I REALLY AM AWARE REALLY KIND OF CONSCIOUS THAT WE COULD SEE  THAT SORT OF DEVELOP AS WE MOVE AHEAD JUST BECAUSE OF THE FACT  THAT THE BURDENSOME GLOBAL STOCKS ARE REALLY SITTING IN THE HANDS  OF THE CHINESE AND THEY'RE NOT COMING THIS.   AND I DON'T DISAGREE WITH ANY OF THE FUNDAMENTAL  ARGUMENTS YOU MADE AND I WOULD EVEN MAKE ANOTHER POSITIVE  FUNDAMENTAL ARGUMENT THAT WE EXPORT SALES ARE ON PACE TO MEET  USDA EXPORT BOOKINGS PROJECTION. HOWEVER I THINK THAT WE STILL  HAS A PROBLEM CALLED TOO MUCH WHEAT AND WE NEED TO KEEP  PRICES COMPETITIVE U.S. PRICES. IT'S DIFFICULT FOR US TO COMPETE  ESPECIALLY AGAINST MAJOR RECORD RUSSIAN SUPPLIES. SO I'M NOT  NEARLY AS BULLISH. I'M NOT BULLISH WHEN. BUT ALSO I THINK WE HAVE  THE POTENTIAL TO HAVE A RALLY COME OUT A WEEK.   BUT I ALSO THINK THE DRYNESS IN THE PLAINS CAN BE MORE OF A  CATALYST YOU GOING FORWARD THE DEAL WILL BE BEFORE THE BREAK YOU  KNOW WHEN WE WERE ABOUT CHINA YOU KNOW THIS WEEK WE HEARD  SOME NEWS THAT CHINA IS ACTUALLY REDUCING THEIR TARIFF ON CHEESE.  I MEAN IT SEEMS LIKE THEY'RE REALLY HUNGRY FOR CHEAP PRODUCTS.  BUT ARE THEY HUNGRY ENOUGH FOR OUR PRODUCTS. DO YOU THINK IT  MAKES ANY DIFFERENCE WITH THIS MASSIVE CHEESE SUPPLY THAT WE  HAVE ON HAND YEAH  ABSOLUTELY. THEY THEY'RE LOWERING THE TARIFF AND THAT'S REALLY  GOOD NEWS FOR EXPORT MARKET FOR THE CHEESE AND THERE'S A  CHEESE SURPLUS HERE IN OUR COUNTRY. OUR DEMAND FOR CHEESE I  THINK IS FANTASTIC AND STRONG AND CONSTANT BUT WE NEED TO GROW  OUR EXPORT MARKETS AND FOR CHINA TO BE BUYING MORE CHEESE AND  OTHER DAIRY PROTEINS IS A REALLY GOOD SIGN THEIR ECONOMY IS SO  STRONG SO IT WILL HELP OUR DAIRY MARKETS WHICH REALLY NEED THAT.  BUT IT'S NOT GOING TO MAKE THE EXPORTS JUST GO LEAPS AND BOUNDS  HIGHER IT'S NOT GOING TO PULL THE MILK PRICE UP ENOUGH WITH IT. BUT I  DO THINK WE'RE IN A SHORT TERM LOW WHERE MILK WILL HAVE A MAYBE  A 50 CENT BOUNCE FROM HERE BUT THEN TRADE SIDEWAYS IN THE LOW  $15 PRICE RANGE INTO FIRST QUARTER BECAUSE THERE'S SO MUCH MILK  SUPPLY OUT THERE RIGHT.   SO WE'RE THINKING MORE SIDEWAYS TRADE. YES. WHAT ABOUT  WHEN WE LOOK AT OTHER LIVESTOCK TO LOOK AT CATTLE WHEN WE LOOK AT  HOGS YOU KNOW WE JUST HAVE THIS MASSIVE SUPPLY AND WE KEEP  TALKING ABOUT IT BUT IT JUST KEEPS GROWING.   BUT THE IMPRESSIVE PART ABOUT IT IS THE MAN WHO HAS BEEN  REALLY RUNNING IN BETTER THAN EXPECTED IN 2017 AND THE PACE THAT  WE'RE ON FOR EXPORT YOU FOLKS TO SEE SOME MORE GROWTH IN BEEF  AND PORK EXPORTS IN 2018. AND HE WILL BE THE DOLLAR BECAUSE  COMPARED TO A YEAR AGO THE DOLLAR IS QUITE WEAK COMPARED TO  WHERE WE WERE A YEAR AGO. AND ALSO DOMESTIC DEMAND IS QUITE  REVVED UP BECAUSE OF THE ECONOMY. AND IF WE CAN CONTINUE TO  SEE ECONOMIC GROWTH IN 2018 DEMAND COULD KEEP UP WITH  PRODUCTION IN 2018 FOR RED MEAT. WAY IT COULD.  I SAY MAYBE THEY CONTINUE TO SEE THIS. I MEAN THESE  MONSTERS GAINS AND WE CONTINUE TO SEE LIKE IN THE CATTLE AND  FIELD REPORT AND THINGS WHEN YOU THINK WE WILL KEEP UP WITH THEM.   YEAH ABSOLUTELY. BECAUSE IN 2018 WE SHOULD SEE ABOUT A  4 PERCENT GROWTH IN BEEF AND PORK PRODUCTION. AND IF WE CAN SEE  THAT LITTLE BIT A 2 TO 3 PERCENT GROWTH IN EXPORTS WE'RE GOING TO  KEEP UP WITH IT. IT'LL BE IT'LL BE IMPRESSIVE.  WELL THE GOOD NEWS WITH A GROWING HERD IS MORE DEMAND  FOR FEED RIGHT. YES. AND SO YOU LOOK AT THE FLIP SIDE OF THAT. REALLY  WHO DO YOU THINK BENEFITS FROM THAT.   QUARTER. OF COURSE. I MEAN WE WE HAVE A LOT OF LOW  PROTEIN WE DON'T CARE THAT WE NEED TO FEED OUT. YOU KNOW WE'VE  GOT A LOT TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THAT LOW PROTEIN MEAT IN THE  SOUTHERN PLAINS. YES   OURS IS BASICALLY KIND OF ACTIVATED IN MARCH IN THE SOUTHERN  PLAINS THERE. SO THAT'S SOMETHING TO PAY ATTENTION TO. BUT YOU  KNOW ANY SORT OF TO BE GREEN IS GOOD.   AND SO THAT INCREASE IN LIVESTOCK SUPPLIES IS NOT A BAD  THING BUT ENOUGH TO PRICES SUBSTANTIALLY ENOUGH TO KEEP PRICES  WHERE THEY ARE CONSIDERING THAT THIS CORN PRODUCTION NUMBER IS  IS MORE THAN WHAT WE THOUGHT.   THE WORST THING THAT WE HAVE GOING FOR US RIGHT NOW IS THE  LIKELIHOOD WE'RE GOING TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CORN ACRES. I MEAN IT  IS GOING ON IN NORTHERN IOWA LIKE IT'S EVERYONE'S JOB. YOU KNOW A  LOT OF GUYS ARE FEELING VERY CONFIDENT WHAT THEY CAN DO WITH CORN  PRODUCTION. AND SO THAT'S SOMETHING THAT YOU KNOW WE NEED THAT  THAT'S SIGNIFICANT DEMAND TO GIVE US SUPPORT. THE REALITY IS WE'RE  PROBABLY GOING TO PRODUCE THAT DEMAND IS NO. THAT'S THE THING.  IT'S NOT A SURPRISE.  REAL QUICK ONLY LIKE 15 SECONDS. USDA CAME OUT WITH  MAKE PROJECTIONS PROJECTIONS THIS WEEK WHEN YOU WON 91 MILLION  ACRES FOR BOTH CORN AND BEANS SO PRETTY MUCH BOTH OF THEM AND  GRABBING THE ACRES FROM WHEAT. DO YOU THINK SW WOULD BE HIGHER  THAN THEY DID.  I DID BECAUSE OF THE COST OF PRODUCTION BEING LOW BUT  EVERYBODY LIKES TO PLANT CORN.  THANK YOU VERY MUCH. WE NEED TO TAKE A QUICK BREAK.  WHEN WE COME BACK WE'LL GET THEIR CLOSING THOUGHTS.   ALL RIGHT. WELCOME BACK. 

MARKETS NOW
TIME NOW FOR CLOSING THOUGHTS AND THE BIGGEST THING I  WANT TO SAY IS IT MAY BE HARD TO DO SOMETHING WITH THE OLD UP IN  THE BIN. YOU KNOW IT'S ROUGH. BUT PAY ATTENTION TO WHAT'S GOING  ON FOR 2018 PRODUCTION. IF YOU KNOW WHAT YOU SHOULD BE LOOKING  AT ACREAGE WISE YOU'VE GOT BEANS ABOVE 10 BUCKS YOU'VE GOT  CORN ABOVE 380. YOU NEED TO BE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF  SOME SORT OF PROFITABLE MARKET SET UP AND DO SOMETHING WITH  THAT. ALL RIGHT. JULIE IN GENERAL FOR LIVESTOCK PRODUCERS TO HAVE  SOME PROFITS IN 2018 AS WE MOVE FORWARD.   ADVANTAGE OF THOSE LOW FEED PRICES AND MAKE SURE YOU'RE  PAYING ATTENTION TO THAT CARE IN THE MARKET BECAUSE YOU DON'T  WANT TO EXTEND YOUR COVERAGE TOO FAR OUT KEEP IT CLOSE AT HAND.   NAOMI SOYBEANS ARE AT A CRITICAL JUNCTURE RIGHT NOW ON  TECHNICAL CHARTS AND FUNDAMENTALS AS WELL. WE'RE SITTING RIGHT AT  THE $10 AREA CRUISING IF WE SEE A BREAKOUT TO THE UPSIDE THAT'S A  DOLLAR HIGHER OUT OF SOUTH AMERICA HAS A GREAT CROP. THINGS  COULD GO SOUTH. QUICK SO BE ON YOUR TOES WITH SOYBEANS.  ALL RIGHT. THANK YOU LADIES SO MUCH. WE'LL TAKE A QUICK  BREAK AND THEN BACK WITH MORE ON U.S. FARM REPORT. 

JOHNS WORLD
WE'RE STICKING WITH THE WOMEN IN AG THEME, AND  JOHN IS GIVING ME THE FLOOR FOR A COUPLE MINUTES  THIS WEEK AS A WIFE AND MOM, I PREPARE THE MAJORITY OF THE  MEALS AT OUR HOUSE. I DON'T MIND IT ONE BIT-- I NOT  ONLY LOVE TO COOK., BUT BEING THE ONE WHO  CHOOSES WHAT MEALS TO PREPARE, AS WELL AS THE  INGREDIENTS TO USE.  BUT MY WEEKLY TRIP TO THE GROCERY STORE IS  BECOMING EVEN MORE COMPLEX. I MEAN THE AMOUNT  OF LABELS ON PRODUCTS IS OVERWHELMING AND CONFUSING.  RASIED WITHOUT ANIBIOTICS OR  ANTIBIOTIC FREE-- ARE THOSE EVEN DIFFERENT? NON  GMO VERSUS GMO FREE-- AREN'T THOSE THE SAME? I  GET CONFUSED AND I CONSIDER MYSELF AND  EDUCATED SHOPPER. I RECENTLY HEARD A SPEAKER TALK ABOUT A USDA  SURVEY. THE AGENCY ASKED CONSUMERS THE TYPICAL  QUESTIONS LIKE LIKE DO YOU WANT YOUR FOOD  LABELED IF IT CONTAINS GMOS? DO YOU WANT YOUR  FOOD LABELED IF IT CONTAINS ANTIBIOTICS? THE  SURVEY ALSO ASKED DO YOU WANT YOUR FOOD  LABELED IF IT CONTAINS DNA? I'LL LET THAT SOAK IN.  DO YOU WANT YOUR FOOD LABELED IF IT CONTAINS  DNA. HERE'S THE SCARY PART-- MORE THAN HALF SAID  YES!  SO, WHEN HAVING A CONVERSATION ABOUT THE  FOOD YOU PRODUCE, YOU HAVE TO UNDERSAND THAT  THE MAJORITY OF CONUMERS TODAY DON'T  UNDERSTAND THE BASICS OF FOOD, LET ALONE A  COMPLEX TOPIC LIKE GENIETICALLY MODIFED  ORGANISMS. AND THAT INSIGHT COULD HELP SHAPE  FUTURE CONVERSATIONS ABOUT HOW FOOD IS  PRODUCED.  A FEW WEEKS AGO I INTERVIEWED FORMER AG  SECRETARY TOM VILSACK. HE SAID WHEN WE TALK  ABOUT COMPLEX POLICY ISSUES LIKE NAFTA OR EVEN  THE FARM BILL, WE NEED TO START USING FOOD AS A  CONDUIT. SO, INSTEAD OF TALKING ABOUT WHAT THE  FARM BILL MEANS TO YOU AS A FARMER OR RANCHER,  TALK ABOUT WHAT IT MEANS TO CONSUMERS, AND  FOOD AVAILABILITY AND AFFORDABILITY.  FOOD HAS BECOME SUCH AN EMOTIONAL TOPIC FOR  MANY, THAT SOMETIMES IT'S THE TOPIC OF FOOD  THAT  CREATES SEGREGATION AND CONTROVERSY. WHEN IN  REALITY, NO MATTER WHERE YOU LIVE-- NEW YORK OR  MONTANA, OR IN AN URBAN OR A RURAL AREA, FOOD IS  WHAT CREATES COMMON GROUND AMONG ALL OF US.   LET'S MAKE FOOD THE TOPIC THAT BRIDGES US  TOGETHER, NOT WHAT CREATES AN EVEN BIGGER  DIVIDE IN THE U-S. 

HEADLINES
WELCOME BACK TO U-S FARM REPORT. WE HAVE MUCH  MORE AHEAD. TAX REFORM TOOK CENTER STAGE IN  WASHINGTON THIS WEEK. BUT IF IT'S JUST A  TEMPORARY FIX, THERE'S THINGS FARMERS CAN START  DOIGN NOW. EFFOTS TO SAVE CALIFORNIA'S CITRUS INDUSTRY  BEFORE ITS TOO LTAE. IT'S A MASSIVE SHIP THAT HAD A TRAGIC ENDING.  AMERICAN COUNTRYSIDE HAS THE STORY BEHIND AN  ICONIC SONG THAT CAPTURES HISTORY.

TAX REFORM
NOW FOR THE HEADLINES, FRESH OFF THANKSGIVING  BREAK, BOTH THE HOUSE AND SENATE TACKLING TAX  REFORM THIS WEEK, WITH A MAJOR DIVIDE BETWEEN  THOSE IN FAVOR OF THE TAX OVERHAUL AND THOSE  AGAINST.  THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF UNANSWERED QUESTIONS ABOUT TAX REFORM, INCLUDING IF THE ESTATE TAX WILL SEE EXPEMPTIONS DOUBLED OR A REPEAL. THAT'S AS IN ADDITION TO THE KEY VOTE IN THE SENATE THIS WEEK, THE HOUSE'S VERSION OF TAX REFORM IS STILL ALIVE. FARM CPA PAUL NEIFFER SAYS NO MATTER THE FINAL CHANGES TO THE ESTATE TAX PORTION OF THE BILL, THOSE CHANGES WILL MORE THAN LIEKLY NOT BE PERMANENT. <SO I WOULD SAY AND YOU KNOW IF WE GET A CHANGE IN THE WHITE  HOUSE, A CHANGE IN CONGRESS IT MAY NOT EVEN LAST 10 YEARS SO IF  THIS GOES THROUGH I WOULD CERTAINLY RECOMMEND THE FARMERS IN  THAT HIGHER BRACKET MAKE SOME GIFTS, YOU KNOW GET RID OF THOSE  ASSETS AS QUICK AS YOU CAN.

NAFTA TALKS
AS NAFTA TALKS TAKE A LARGE BREAK, MEXICO'S AGRICULTURE SANITATION AUTHORITY HAS REVOKED  MONSANTO'S PERMIT TO COMMERCIALIZE GENETICALLY  MODIFIED SOYBEANS IN SEVEN STATES. MONSANTO SAYS ITS UNJUSTIFIED.  THE  COMPANY ISSUING A STATEMENT THAT THE  PERMIT HAD BEEN WITHDRAWN ON UNWARRANTED  LEGAL AND TECHNICAL GROUNDS.  THE COMPANY SAYS IT WILL TAKE STEPS TO  SAFEGUARD ITS RIGHTS AND THOSE OF FARMERS  USING THE TECHNOLOGY.  IN NEWS FROM OUR REPORTING PARTNERS AT THE  PACKER - IMPORTS CONTINUE TO REPRESENT A RISING  PERCENTAGE OF FRESH FRUIT CONSUMED IN THE U-S. . IF YOU EXCLUDE BANANAS, IMPORTS MADE UP MORE  THAN 38 PERCENT OF ALL FRESH FRUIT CONSUMED IN  THIS COUNTRY LAST YEAR. THAT'S UP ONE PERCENT  FROM 2015. BUT UP 15-PERCENT FROM 2010. . USDA AYS THIS COUNTRY IMPORTS 85-PERCENT OF  ALL AVOCADOES WE EAT.  AND 12-PERCENT OF FRESH  ORANGES.

FARM BUREAU SURVEY
AS THE OPIOID CRISIS SWEEPS ACROSS AMERICA, IT'S  IMPACTING FARMERS MORE THAN OTHER RURAL  RESIDENTS.  A NEW SURVEY BACKED BY AMERICAN FARM BUREAU  AND NATIONAL FARMERS UNION SHOWS NEARLY THREE- QUARTERS OF U-S FARMERS ADN FARM WORKERS SAY  THEY'VE BEEN DIRECTLY AFFECTED BY OPIOD  DEPENDENCE. THAT COMPRES TO THE 45 PERCENT FOR  RURAL RESIDENTS AS A WHOLE.  STATS SHOW ABOUT 16 PERCENT OF FARMERS  STRUGGLED WITH ADDICTION.   THE TOP CHALLENGE CITED BY YOUNG FARMERS IS  LAND ACCESS, PARTICULARLY FINDING AND AFFORDING  LAND ON A FARM INCOME.  IT IS ALSO THE MAIN REASON WHY FARMERS QUIT  FARMING AND WHY ASPIRING FARMERS HAVEN'T YET  STARTED. THIS INFORMATION COMES FROM THE NATIONAL YOUNG  FARMERS COALITION. THE SURVEY COLLECTED DATA FROM MORE THAN 3,500  YOUNG AND ASPIRING FARMERS UNDER 40 YEARS OF  AGE.

FAKE, REAL CHRISTMAS TREES
MEANWHILE ANOTHER MAINSTAY OF CHRISTMAS - THE  TREE ITSELF - IS UNDER ATTACK FROM FAKE TREES  MADE IN CHINA. . THE NATIONAL CHRISTMAS TREE ASSOCIATION SAYS  THE NUMBER OF ARTIFICIAL TREES SOLD HAS DOUBLED  SINCE 2010. . THAT COMPETITION MAY BE PUTTING SOME U-S  GROWERS OUT OF BUSINESS. ACCORDING TO THE  OREGON DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE THE NUMBER  OF GROWERS HAS DROPPED BY 30-PERCENT SINCE  2010. . WITH A SHRINKING SUPPLY OF REAL TREES, PRICES  HAVE PUSHED HIGHER. THE N-C-T-A SAYS PRICES FOR  REAL TREES ARE 200-PERCENT HIGHER THAN IN 2014.

WEATHER
THAT'S IT FOR NEWS...METEOROLOGIST MIKE  HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH A LONGER RANGE LOOK  AT WEATHER. MIKE, YOU TALKED ABOUT THAT FRIGID  FRONT DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE U-S NEXT WEEK.  HOW LONG DOES IT LAST?   THANKS TYNE IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THIS BLAST OF COLD  LASTS FOR SEVERAL DAYS IF NOT A FEW WEEKS. THIS IS A PATTERN THAT  MIGHT JUST COME AND STAY FOR A WHILE. SO HERE'S WHAT WE'RE  TALKING ABOUT. YOU CAN SEE THE TROUGH STARTING IN THE WEST AS WE  HEAD INTO THIS WEEK THEN THE TROUGH REALLY DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN  PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS IS A DIRECT SHOT OF ARCTIC  AIR BY THE END OF THE WEEK ALL THE WAY INTO THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS  OF THE COUNTRY ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE GULF OF MEXICO YOU CAN  SEE THAT BY FRIDAY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THAT REMAINS.  AND WHEN YOU SEE THIS KIND OF AS A BIG BUBBLE HERE THAT'S A  PATTERN THAT CAN STAY FOR A WHILE AND THAT'S WHAT WE'LL BE  WATCHING. SO MY 30 THE OUTLOOK FOR TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL  MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REGION  AND THE WEST COAST AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 30  DAYS. I DON'T SEE A LOT OF BIG SYSTEMS AT LEAST INITIALLY DURING THE  MONTH OF DECEMBER SO WE'LL GO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE  SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES NEAR NORMAL. FARTHER NORTH TYNE.   THANKS, MIKE.

FARM JOURNAL REPORT
AS WE HIGHLIGHTED DURING OUR  HARVEST OF THANKS SPECIAL, FLROIDA'S CITRUS  GROWERS WERE HIT HARD THIS YEAR BY HURRICANE  IRMA.  FLORIDA'S LAWMAKERS ARE REQUESTING FEDERAL  DISASTER RELIEF FOR THE STATE'S AG. INDUSTRY AS  DAMAGES FROM HURRICANE IRMA CLIMB.  AG. COMMMISSIONER ADAM PUTNAM SENDING A LETTER  TO THE STATE'S CONGRESSIONAL DELEGATION ASKING  FOR AID FOR THE MORE THAN 2.5 BILLION DOLLARS OF  DAMAGE.  YET, CITRUS GROWERS MAY BE HURT THE MOST- THEIR  CROP WAS SLASHED FOR A DIFFERENT REASON EVEN  BEFORE IRMA MADE LANDFALL. BETSY JIBBEN HAS THIS WEEK'S FARM JOURNAL  REPORT.  WHEN HURRICANE IRMA STORMETHROUGH FLORIDA,  IT DID NOT DISCRIMINATE  CROP PRODUCTION LOSSES FOR THE STATE'S CITRUS  GROWERS CONTINUE TO RISE. <"WE'VE BEEN CUT ON A PRODUCTION LEVEL IN HALF BECAUSE OF THE  DISEASE AND NOW THIS CUTS THAT HALF, IN HALF,"> FLORIDA'S CITRUS CROP HAS BEEN PLAGUED WITH A  DISEASE CALLED CITRUS GREENING-SPREAD BY  AN INSECT CALLED THE ASIAN CITRUS PSYLLID AND  THERE'S NO KNOWN CURE.  USDA IS FORECASTING FLORIDA'S ORANGE  PRODUCTION AT 50 MILLION BOXES WHICH WOULD BE 27  PERCENT LESS THAN LAST YEAR AND THE LOWEST  SINCE THE 1945 - 1946 SEASON.  "WE REALLY NEED TO DO SOME PRUNING  HERE,"> GROWERS LIKE AL STEHLY IN ESCONDIDIO, CALIFORNIA   HOPE THEY'RE NOT NEXT.  <"WE'VE TAKEN THE ATTITUDE IT'S NOT IF IT COMES, IT'S WHEN - SHOW  HIM NODDING"> FOR THE FIRST TIME IN DECADES, CALIFORNIA  PRODUCED 4 MILLION MORE TONS OF CITRUS THAN  FLORIDA DURING THE 2016 - 2017 SEASON. "WE'RE PRODUCING MORE ORANGES IN CALIFORNIA NOW THAN FLORIDA  AND THAT'S CRIMINAL. OK, IT'S NOT CRIMINAL BUT IT'S SAD FOR FLORIDA,"> STEHLY SAYS CALIFORNIA GROWERS ARE JUST HOPING  TO SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH UNTIL A CURE OR  TREATMENT IS FOUND.  PSYLLIDS WITH THE DISEASE HAVE BEEN FOUND IN  VARIOIUS AREAS OF CALIFORNIA BUT SO FAR ONLY  RESIDENTIAL AREAS. <"IF THE DISEASE IS HERE, IT CAN BE IN THIS TREE FOR 5 YEARS BEFORE  WE KNOW IT,"> HE SPRAYS MULTIPLE TIMES A YEAR TO TRY TO LOWER  THE PEST POPULATION AND COORDINATES WITH THE  NEIGHBORING GROVES TO SPRAY WITHIN A 2 WEEK  PERIOD, THAT WAY THE PSYLLID CAN'T FLY FROM  GROVE TO GROVE.  THE CAMERA IS MOVING WITH HIM> <"THE CILLID IS IN THE NEW FLESH.  SO IT'S HERE"> ALTHOUGH  NOT ALL PSYLLIDS CARRY THE DISEASE.  <"IT'S NOT LIKE THE MOSQUITO AND MALARIA. IF THERE'S NO MALARIA THE  MOSQUITO BITES WON'T GIVE YOU MALARIA. BUT IF THE MOSQUITO  PREVIOUS BIT SOMEONE WITH MALARIA, YOU'RE GOING TO GET MALARIA. IF  THERE'S NO GREENING HERE AND THE INSECT IS ON THE TREE, IT WON'T  BRING ME THE DISEASE,"> <PUTS IT DOWN ON PAPER AND HITS IT <"NO, THAT'S NOT A PSYILLID.  <"OH THERE'S ONE"> "IT'S RIGHT THERE NOW THAT IS NOTHING TO GO  THROUGH THIS MANY LEAVES AND ONLY FIND ONE"> <THAT'S JUST BEEN HATCHED,"> STEHLY IS TRANSITIONING THESE TREES INTO ORANGIC  PRODUCTION HOWEVER, HE BELIEVES A  GMO  TECHNOLOGY MAY BE THE THE ONLY WAY TO COMBAT  THE DISEASE AROUND THE WORLD.  CURRENTLY, GM CITRUS IS NOT SOLD COMMERCIALLY.  <"REALLY, I THINK THE GMO MAY BE THE ANSWER, EVENTUALLY OR SOME  TYPE OF LUCKY BREEDING AND THEN YOU WON'T HAVE ORGANIC CITRUS,"> AS CALIFORNIA GROWERS AIM TO PRODUCE A BIG CROP <" MMMM THIS IS NOT BAD,"> THEY ARE LEARY AND ON ALERT WATCHING GROWERS ON THE OPPOSITE  SIDE OF THE COUNTRY FOR CLUES TO A SOLUTION. <"WE THOUGHT THAT WE DID HAVE A BETTER CROP AND MAYBE IT WOULD  PLATEAU AND WE'D INCREASE. VERY OPTIMISTIC IN THE INDUSTRY BUT  AFTER THIS, IT'S BEEN TOUGH,"> REPORTING FOR U.S. FARM REPORT, I'M BETSY JIBBEN.  STEHLY SAYS HE'S  LOOKING INTO PUTTING IN MULTIPLE CITRUS HOUSES  AROUND HIS TREES AN IN EFFORT TO KEEP THE INSECT  OUT.  JOHN PHIPPS IS NEXT"LONG TERM THINKING, IT'S A GOOD IDEA."

CUSTOMER SUPPORT
WELCOME BACK. IT'S TIME NOW TO CHECK IN WITH  JOHN PHIPPS FROM THE FARM. JOHN.  THIS WEEK I WANT TO SHARE A NOTE THAT MADE MY DAY: "YOUR COMMENTARY IS A REGULAR STAPLE FOR ME AND MY DOGS AT  BREAKFAST. THE INSIGHT ON STARTUP FARMING IS VERY INFORMATIVE AS I  BELIEVE A GOOD EDUCATION IS EXPENSIVE NO MATTER HOW YOU GET IT. THE SCHOOL OF HARD KNOCKS IS ALWAYS AN OPTION BUT NOT MY FIRST  CHOICE. I HAVE TRIED SMALL SCALE AQUAPONICS AND ENJOY  GARDENING. MY WIFE'S FAVORITE WOULD BE A NATURE SANCTUARY BUT  NOT FINANCIALLY FEASIBLE. MY POINT FOR SMALL SCALE STARTUPS MIGHT  BE TO TRY CHRISTMAS TREE FARMING COMBINED WITH FRUIT AND NUT  ORCHARDS ON A PORTION OF THE ACREAGE. THESE MAY PROVIDE A  WINDFALL WHEN IT IS NEEDED MOST." THAT'S FROM ROBERT FARMER, FROM HARRINGTON, DELAWARE. THANKS  FOR WRITING ROBERT, AND FOR INCLUDING YOUR FULL ADDRESS. OUR  PRODUCERS WILL BE GLAD TO KNOW WE ARE REACHING THE ALL-IMPORTANT  CANINE DEMOGRAPHIC. YOUR NOTE TOUCHES ON SOMETHING I THINK WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT FOR  ALL OF AG IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS - THINKING LONG TERM. WHEN YOUR  DAY TO DAY PROBLEMS ARE INTENSE AND IMMEDIATE IT IS EASY TO  IGNORE THE OPPORTUNITIES WE HAVE TO MAKE THINGS BETTER OR MORE PROFITABLE YEARS OR EVEN DECADES FROM NOW. YOUR SUGGESTION OF  A TREE FARM AND ORCHARDS ARE SUCH ENDEAVORS. WHILE WE MAY BE  MOTIVATED TO INVEST IN LONG TERM PROJECTS TO PAY BACK THOSE WHO  DID SO TO OUR BENEFIT YEARS AGO, MY EXPERIENCE IS SUCH EFFORTS  CAN RENEW OUR COMMITMENT TO A BETTER FUTURE FOR ALL OF US.  ESPECIALLY FOR YOUNGER PEOPLE, I ENCOURAGE THEM TO GOOGLE  SOME LIFE EXPECTANCY STATISTICS. MOST OF US ARE GOING TO LIVE  LONGER THAN WE THINK. THOSE LIVES WILL BE HEALTHIER AS WELL.  PROJECTS YOU THINK YOU WILL NOT SEE COME TO FRUITION COULD BE BIG  FACTORS IN YOUR RETIREMENT, NOT JUST SOMETHING YOU HAND DOWN.  THESE INVESTMENTS SHOULD NOT BE LIMITED TO TANGIBLE ASSETS.  STARTING OR SUSTAINING SOCIAL ASSETS LIKE PROFESSIONAL OR FRATERNAL  ASSOCIATIONS, CHURCHES, OR COMMUNITY ORGANIZATIONS NOT ONLY  MAKE OUR FUTURES BETTER, BUT ARE POWERFUL TOOLS THAT CAN HELP US  GET TO THAT FUTURE. FROM TIMETO TIME, LIFT YOUR EYES TO MORE  DISTANT HORIZONS - YOU ARE GETTING THERE FASTER THAN YOU THINK. A GOOD REMINDER. THANK YOU JOHN.

TEASE
IF YOU HAV E A QUESTION OR COMMENT FOR JOHN,  SEND HIM  A NOTE. THAT'S MAILBAG AT U-S FARM  REPORT DOT COM. WHEN WE COME BACK, WE'LL RELIVE HISTORY AS  ANDREW MCCREA MAKES A TRIP TO AN HISTORIC SHIP  WRECK IN THE GREAT LAKES. 

AMERICAN COUNTRYSIDE
IN THE NORTHERN U-S, FIVE LAKES NOT ONLY  REPRESENT THE LARGEST FRESHWATER LAKES ON  EARTH BY AREA, BUT THE LAKES' BEAUTY ATTRACT  TOURISTS EACH YEAR, WHO ARE TRYING TO SOAK UP SOME THE WATER'S BEAUTY.  BUT MORE THAN 40 YEARS AGO, ROUGH WATERS WERE  ENOUGH TO CONUME A MASSIVE SHIP... A STORY SO  IMPACTFUL, IT WAS COMMEMERATED BY A SONG.  HERE'S ANDREW MCCREA.  THE LEGEND LIVES ON FROM THE CHIPPEWA ON DOWN, OF THE BIG LAKE  THEY CALL GITCHE GUMEE  IT'S A STORY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WE MOSTLY KNOW FROM A SONG  BY GORDON LIGHTFOOT.  BUT IT'S ALSO STORY ABOUT SEVERAL CENTURIES  OF BOATS AND THEIR CREWS NAVIGATING THE LOCKS AND GREAT LAKES  AROUND SAULT STE. MARIE, MICHIGAN.   IF WE WENT BACK TO THE 1880S, TURN OF THE LAST CENTURY, IT WOULD BE  LIKE A NONSTOP PARADE OF SHIP TRAFFIC PASSING.  AND THERE'S  SOMETHING YOU GET WITH ALL OF THAT EXTRA SHIP TRAFFIC, YOU GET MORE  ACCIDENTS.  BRUCE LYNN, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, GREAT LAKES  SHIPWRECK MUSEUM  THE OLD WEATHER BUREAU BUILDING HERE, NEXT TO THE SOO LOCKS  PROVIDED SHIPS WITH AN IDEA OF THE WEATHER THEY MIGHT EXPECT ON  THE LAKES.  THERE ARE ABOUT 200 SHIPWRECKS ALONG THE 80 MILE,  HARBOR-LESS STRETCH WEST OF WHITEFISH POINT.  THE EDMUND  FITZGERALD IS ONE OF THOSE. THAT WAS NOVEMBER 10TH, 1975, IT REALLY WASN'T THAT LONG AGO. HERE AT THE SOO LOCKS ALONE THERE WERE 90 MILE PER HOUR WIND  GUSTS RECORDED AND THIS WHOLE AREA, THIS STREET THAT WE ARE  STANDING NEXT TO, PORTAGE AVENUE, IT WAS COMPLETELY FLOODED.  WAVES WERE CRASHING UP OVER THE LOCK GATES HERE IT WAS A  PRETTY DRAMATIC DAY.  AND IN LAKE SUPERIOR, THE FITZGERALD WAS BATTLING 30 FOOT WAVES  THAT NOVEMBER NIGHT.  WHAT CAN BE A BEAUTIFUL AND PEACEFUL  LAKE HAD TURNED TO ONE THAT COULD CONSUMER A 700 FOOT LONG  SHIP. THE CAPTAIN WIRED IN HE HAD WATER COMIN' IN, AND THE GOOD SHIP  AND CREW WAS IN PERIL, AND LATER THAT NIGHT WHEN HIS LIGHTS WENT  OUT OF SIGHT, CAME THE WRECK OF THE EDMUND FITZGERALD.   TODAY THERE ARE ONLY THEORIES ABOUT WHAT HAPPENED.  PAUL  SABOURIN (SAVERIN), AT THE VALLEY CAMP SHIP MUSEUM NEAR THE  SOO LOCKS, HAS A FEW OF THE ONLY ARTIFACTS FROM THE EDMUND  FITZGERALD.   WHEN SHE SANK THERE WERE DEBRIS.  TWO OF IT WERE THE LIFEBOATS  ARE INSIDE THE MUSEUM THE VALLEY CAMP PAUL SABOURIN, CURATOR VALLEY CAMP SHIP  MUSEUM, SAULT STE, MARIE, MI.   BOTH THE SHIP VALLEY CAMP AND THE GREAT LAKES SHIPWRECK  MUSEUM, TELL THE STORY OF THE FITZGERALD AND THE CENTURIES OF  NAVIGATION THAT HAS TAKEN PLACE ON THESE LAKES.  AS FOR THE  WRECK OF THE FITZGERALD, EXPLORATORY SUBS HAVE EXAMINED THE  SITE, BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT REMAINS UNDISTURBED, THE RESTING  PLACE FOR THE 29 WHO PERISHED. IT WAS THE GREAT LAKES SHIPWRECK HISTORICAL SOCIETY IN THE 1980S  AND EARLY NINETIES, THEN RECOVERED, AT THE REQUEST OF THE PARENTS,  THE BELL FROM THE EDMUND FITZGERALD.  THE SHIP'S BELL WAS REPLACED WITH ONE BEARING THE NAMES OF  THOSE 29 SAILORS.  EVERY NOVEMBER 10TH HERE AT THE GREAT LAKES  SHIPWRECK MUSEUM, THE BELL TOLLS FOR THOSE WHO WERE LOST.   THE CHURCH BELL CHIMED 'TIL IT RANG TWENTY-NINE TIMES, FOR EACH  MANON THE EDMUND FITZGERALD  ALTHOUGH DECADES HAVE PASSED, THE STORY OF THE FITZGERALD AND  THE MANY SHIPS THAT PASS THRU THE SOO LOCKS ARE A SIGHT THAT  BRING VISITORS FROM AROUND THE WORLD. WE MAY NEVER KNOW WHY THE FITZGERALD WENT DOWN IN NOVEMBER  OF 1975, BUT FOR SHIPS LIKE THIS PASSING THROUGH THE SOO LOCKS,  WE DO KNOW THESE WATERS WILL ALWAYS BE SOME OF THE MOST  IMPORTANT YET TREACHEROUS IN THE WORLD.  TRAVELING THE  COUNTRYSIDE…IN SAULT STE. MARIE, MICHIGAN, I'M ANDREW MCCREA. TO HEAR MORE OF ANDREW'S TRAVELS, VISIT  AMERICAN COUNTRYSIDE DOT COM.

TEASE
WHEN WE COME BACK, MACHINERY PETE HAS THIS  WEEKS' TRACTOR TALES...PLEASE STAY WITH US.

TRACTOR TALES
WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES FOLKS!  THIS WEEK WE'VE GOT A  CLASSIC JOHN DEERE FROM CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS 630 WAS PURCHASED IN 1959 AND HAS BEEN IN THE FAMILY  EVER SINCE.  TODAY, OWNER GREG BARNS TAKES US OUT TO THE FIELD  TO SHOW US WHAT THIS BEAUTY CAN DO.  IT WAS MY GRANDDAD'S BIGGEST TRACTOR HE EVER FARMER WITH.  AND WHEN HE PASSED AWAY OUR FAMILY GAVE IT TO MY BROTHER AND I  AND WE HAD REDONE ABOUT 20 YEARS AGO AND.  WE'VE BEEN PLAYING WITH IT EVER SINCE. A LOT OF FUN BUT WE DON'T HAVE A FARM BUT MY GRANDDAD DID  AND WE WE JUST COME OUT FROM PLOUGH DAY AND OUR PLOW GARDENS  ON THE SIDE WHEN PEOPLE CALL ME AND ASK ME ABOUT IT. THEY  COMPLETELY WENT THROUGH EVERYTHING PAINTED IT. DONE SOME  MOTOR WORK TOO. AND THEN WE JUST PUT NEW TIRES AND RIMS ON IT  YESTERDAY ACTUALLY I'M PULLING A FULLY MOUNTED THREE BOTTOM 3:14  BOTTOM PLOW PLOWING ON COVER CROP AND IT'S A LITTLE SLICK OUT  TODAY. WE'RE JUST GOING TO KEEP IT IN THE FAMILY AS LONG AS WE CAN  AND KEEP PLAYING WITH IT. AND SHOULD WE TAKE IT TO THE COUNTY FAIR  AND THINGS LIKE THAT. TO ME IT'S REAL IMPORTANT HE KEEPS A LOT OF  CAMARADERIE KEEPS THE YOUNG KIDS INVOLVED WITH THE ANTIQUE PART  OF THE TRACTORS. THEY SEEM TO REALLY ENJOY IT. MOST OF THEM DON'T  KNOW HOW ALL THIS OLDER EQUIPMENT RUNS AND WORKS. THEIR USE IS  THE NEWER STUFF WITH AN AIR CONDITIONER.

TEASE
THANKS SO MUCH. MARK YOUR CALENDARS BECAUSE COMING UP ON TUESDYA, NOVEMBER 12, JOIN US FOR THE AG TECH EXPO IN INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA. U.S. FARM REPORT IS HOSING A ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSING ON DRIVING GREATER YIELDS, WHILE  CAPTURING MROE VALUE. WE HAVE A GREAT GROUP OF PANELISTS LINED UP. STAY WITH US, WE HAE SOME FROM THE FARM PHOTOS  NEXT. 

FROM THE FARM
HARVEST IS NEARLY COMPLETE IN MINNESTOA. LOREN  SENT US THIS PICTURE. HE SAYS IT HASN'T BEEN AN  EASY FALL. IT'S BEEN VERY WET WITH A LOT OF  COMBINES GETTING STUCK UNTIL IT TURNED COLD AND  THE GROUDN FROZE. HE SAYS YIELDS ARE GOOD--  CLOSE TO ANOTHER RECORD IN HIS AREA.  IN ALEXANDRA SOUTH DAKTOA, BROTHERS CHRIS AND  ANDREW WERE FINSIHING UP TILLING THIS WEEK-- THE  LAST FIELD FOR 2017.  AND MIKE, I HAD THE PRIVLEDGE OF TRAVELING TO  WILLIAMSBURG, VIRGINIA THIS WEEK. IT'S JUST  GORGEOUS RIGHT NOW WITH THE LEAVES TURNING  COLORS. BUT THIS WEEKEND IS THE ANNUAL  ILLUMINATION EVEN, WHICH WILL DRAW UP TO 50  THOSUAND PEOPLE. IT'S A LITTLE SLICE OF HISTORY,  AND THIS YEAR VERY FESTIVE WITH THE DECORAIONS.  WE'LL HAVE THAT STORE CHRISTMAS WEEKEND ON U-S  FARM REPORT.  BUT BEFORE CHRISTMAS THAT PLACE IS FILLED WITH HISTORY. OH MY GOSH. IT'S AMAZING TO SEE. BUT COMING UP THIS NEXT WEEK I MEAN WE'RE ENTERING INTO DECEMBER. YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT THIS COLD FRONT AND IT'S GOING TO BE PRETTY WIDESPREAD.  EVERYBODY EAST OF THE ROCKIES. OK BUT HOW SHORT LIVED. I THINK IT LAST FOR A WHILE. THIS IS A THIS IS A PATTERN CHANGE THAT I THINK COMES IN AND IT MIGHT LAST THROUGH MOST OF DECEMBER. THAT'S THAT'S GOING OUT ON A LIMB FOR ME TO SAY SO BUT I THINK IT'S TO LAST A WHILE ANYWAY. WE'VE HAD SOME MILD WEATHER BUT WINTER IS SAYING HEY WINTER WILL BE HERE EAST OF THE ROCKIES.  QUICKLY NEXT WEEK. ALL RIGHT IF YOU HAVE A PICTURE OR A VIDEO YOU WOULD LIKE TO SEND. YOU CAN DO THAT TO THE ADDRESS ON THE SCREEN.

CLOSE
AND FROM ALL OF US U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M MIKE HOFFMAN AND I'M TIME MORGAN. THANKS FOR JOINING US. BE SURE TO JOIN US AGAIN RIGHT HERE NEXT WEEK AS WE WORK TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND EVERYONE. 

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