USFR Weekly Recap - February 10-11, 2018

February 10, 2018 03:30 AM
 
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TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
FEBRUARY 10-11, 2018

HEADLINES

WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M TYNE MORGAN,  AND HERE''S WHAT'S IN STORE OVER THE NEXT 60  MINUTES.  BEARISH FOR BEANS, YET BULLISH FOR CORN. THE  LATEST USDA REPORT SHINING LIGHT ON LAGGING SOY  EXPORTS.  <WE HAD A PRETTY BIG ADJUSTMENT> SOYBEANS MAY BE SHOWING DISPAOINTING  SHIPMENTS, BUT BEEF BUYS ARE GAINING STRENGTH.  AND THERE'S A NEW BEEF IMITATOR ON TEH BLOCK... <" I'M NEVER SEEN A PRODUCT LAUNCH BE SO SUCCESSFUL RIGHT OUT OF  THE GATE,"> WHY FAKE MEAT IS A GROWING CONCERN FOR THE  BEEF INDUSTRY.  AND IN JOHN'S WORLD.  <IS THE FARM BILL OVER HYPED?> <U.S. FARM REPORT - BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE DEPENDABLE, LONG  LASTING, CHEVY SILVERADO.>

WASDE
NOW FOR THE NEWS THAT MOVED THE MARKETS THIS  WEEK... SOME POSITIVE SIGNS FOR CORN THIS WEEK,  AS USDA DECREASED U-S ENDING STOCKS WHILE ALSO  SHRINKING PROJECTIONS FOR WHAT'S LEFT OVER  AROUND THE GLOBE. BUT IT WASN'T SUCH GOOD NEWS  FOR BEANS.  USDA RAISING ITS U-S SOYBEAN ENDING STOCKS BY 60  MILLION BUSHELS  TO 530 MILLION BUSHELS.  THAT BIGGER BEAN CROP IN BRAZIL MAY BE ONE  REASON USDA LOWERED ITS DEMAND ESTIMATE FOR U- S SOYBEAN EXPORTS. FEWER SHIPMENTS OF BEANS PUSHED THE SOYBEAN  ENDING STOCKS HIGHER TO 530 MILLION BUSHELS IN  THE U-S.

CHINA PROBING U.S. SORGHUM
CHINA TAKING AIM AT U-S SORGHUM AND IT COULD BE  THE FIRST SIGN OF BACKLASH OVER RECENT TARIFFS  THE U-S ISSUED.  CHINA'S MINISTRY OF COMMERCE LAUNCHING AN ANTI  DUMPING AND COUNTERVAILING DUTY INVESTIGATIONS  INTO SORGHUM IMPORTED INTO THE UNITED STATES.  THAT'S AS THE LAST FEW YEARS, U-S SORGHUM  PRODUCERS HAVE SEEN BOOMING DEMAND AS CHINA'S  APPETITIE GREW FOR SORGHUM. IN RESPONSE, NATIONAL SORGHUM PRODUCERS CEO  TIM LUST SAYING WHILE THE U-S VALUES CHINA AS A  CUSTOMER, THAT QUOTE "U.S. SORGHUM FARMERS DO NOT DUMP OUR PRODUCTS INTO CHINA OR  ELSEWHERE, AND OUR PRODUCTS ARE NOT UNFAIRLY SUBSIDIZED. A FAIR  PROCEEDING WILL DEMONSTRATE THESE FACTS, END QUOTE.  LUST INDICATING THIS WILL BE A LONG JOURNEY, AS  THE INVESTIGATION IS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST A  YEAR. 

USMEF NUMBERS
SOYBEAN SHIPMENTS LAGGING THIS YEAR, BUT CATTLE  MARKETS ARE ON THE OPPOSITE TRACK.  THE U-S MEAT EXPORT FEDERATION JUST RELEASING  ITS YEAR-END FIGURES OF BEEF AND PORK SHIPMENTS. US-MEF SAYS 2017 WAS A RECORD-BREAKING YEAR.   BEEF EXPORT VALUE SURPASSED THE SEVEN BILLION   DOLLAR MARK. LAST YEARS' TOTALS WERE TWO  PERCENT HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS HIGH SET IN  2014. . AND PORK EXPORTS SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS YEAR'S  VOLUME RECORD. PORK EXPORTS TOTALED TWO-POINT FOUR MILLION  METRIC TONS IN 2017, BREAKING THE 2016 RECORD BY 6  PERCENT. <"WHAT'S MORE EXCITING IS OUR ECONOMISTS ARE FORECASTING GOING  INTO NEXT YEAR THAT WE'RE LOOKING AT  6 TO 8 PERCENT ADDITIONAL  GROWTH ON TOP OF THIS RECORD THIS YEAR. SO WE'RE EXCITED. THERE'S A  LOT OF OPPORTUNITY OUT THERE. WE JUST HAVE TO HARVEST IT."> US-MEF SAYS JAPAN WAS THE LEADING MARKET FOR U- S BEEF AND DEMAND IS NOT WANING. VOLUME CLIMBED 19-PERCENT YEAR OVER YEAR.

WEATHER
THOSE ARE THE HEADLINES...METEOROLOGIST MIKE  HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH WEATHER... MIKE, A  COUPEL MAJOR SNOW STORMS BARRELLED THROUGH  THE COUNTRY THIS WEEK. DOES IT QUET DOWN  ANY  NEXT WEEK? TYNE ABSOLUTELY IT'LL BE A LOT CALMER WEEK ACROSS THE  COUNTRY EXCEPT IN THE SOUTH WEST AS YOU'LL SEE COMING UP. AND  THAT'S WHERE YOU NEED THE MOISTURE. THIS IS WHERE THE DROUGHT  CONTINUES TO GET WORSE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO NORTH  TEXAS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND EVEN A LOT OF VERY DRY AREAS UP  INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE  SOUTHEAST. THERE'S A LARGE AREA OF DROUGHT NOW ACROSS THE  COUNTRY. THIS WAS FOUR WEEKS AGO. AND YOU CAN SEE OVER THE  PAST MONTH HOW THINGS HAVE CHANGED. BASICALLY WE'RE JUST  EXPANDING THE SEVERE AND EXTREME DROUGHT AREAS UNFORTUNATELY  IN A LARGE AREA THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES LET'S CHECK THE  MAPS THEN AGAIN NOT A LOT GOING ON THIS WEEK OVERALL EXCEPT FOR  A STORM COMING INTO THE SOUTHWEST COLD FRONT LINGERING ON  MONDAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS MAINLY JUST  SUNNY AND STARTING OFF ON THE COLD SIDE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO  THE NORTHEAST. WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES  WITH A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW. AND THEN YOU CAN SEE BY WEDNESDAY A  LITTLE BIT OF RETURN MOISTURE MAY SPREAD A COUPLE OF SHOWERS HERE  AND THERE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OTHERWISE  MILDER AIR COMING INTO THE GREAT LAKES STILL COLD IN THE FAR  NORTHEAST. THERE'S THAT STORM SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWEST ON  WEDNESDAY THAT MOVES THROUGH MUCH OF THAT AREA ON THURSDAY  STILL LINGERING ON FRIDAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH THE SOUTHERN  PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES AND SOME SHOWERS MOVING EASTWARD IN  MANY PARTS OF KANSAS OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF TEXAS AND FAIRLY  WARM IN THE SOUTHEAST BUT MORE FRIGID AIR COMING INTO THE  NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES.   WE'LL CHECK YOUR LONGER RANGE FORECAST COMING UP IN OUR  NEXT HALF HOUR. 

TEASE
THANKS, MIKE. WE SAW THE LATEST USDA STOCK  NUMBERS. BUT WHAT COULD IT MEAN FOR THE DEMAND  PICTURE MOVING FORWARD? ANDY SHISSLER AND JOE  VACLAVIK SIT DOWN WITH ME AT THE AGRISUBIESS  DESK AFTER TEH BREAK. 

ROUNDTABLE 1
WELCOME BACK. U.S. FARM REPORT THIS SNOWY WEEKEND IN  PLACES WELL THIS WEEK A BIG WEEK FOR THE MARKETS. WE HAD THE  FEBRUARY WAS REPORT COME OUT.   AND SO WE HAVE ANDY AND JOE TO KIND OF BREAK DOWN  THOSE NUMBERS FOR US. INDEED GOING INTO THE REPORT REALLY WHAT I  WAS WATCHING WAS SOYBEANS. I MEAN WE KNOW OUR SOYBEAN  EXPORTS HAVE BEEN LAGGING DID WE SEE A BIG ADJUSTMENT IN OUR   YEAH WE HAD A PRETTY BIG ADJUSTMENT. THE CUT THE EXPORTS  60 MILLION THAN I WOULD'VE THOUGHT IT WAS GOING TO BE LIKE 25  MILLION IS WHAT I WAS THINKING AND THAT WAS. BUT THE 60 MILLION I  MEAN I CAN I CAN SEE THAT THAT LOGISTICAL ISSUES THIS WINTER THE  BASIS NUMBERS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE BIT WRONG AT THE GULF. WE'VE  HEARD QUALITY ISSUES OFF OF THE PNW FOR PROTEIN WHICH MAY TAKE  AN ACCOUNT OF A LOT OF LITTLE FACTORS THAT KIND OF ADD UP TO MAKE IT.  CHINA IS AHEAD OF PACE ON THEIR BEAN IMPORTS. YET YOU'RE YOU'RE  SEEING A LOT MORE OUT OF BRAZIL AND I JUST THINK IT JUST HASN'T BEEN  THE RIGHT SEASON FOR US TO EXPORT A LOT OF BEANS VERY EASILY.  MOMENT. BEFORE WE DO THAT THOUGH JOE YOU KNOW AT THIS POINT IN  THE GAME CAN WE MAKE UP THESE SHIPMENTS. IS THERE ENOUGH  TIME TO MAKE UP FOR WHAT WE'RE NOT SEEING THESE EXPORTS.   PROBABLY NOT. NO. I MEAN WE COULD HIT THE NEW REVISED  USDA TARGET. CERTAINLY THAT'S A POSSIBILITY. BUT THERE IS SOME  UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SOUTH AMERICAN PRODUCTION. I THINK BRAZIL  IS GOING TO BE REALLY REALLY GOOD. I THINK USDA IS PROBABLY TOO  LOW WITH THEIR WITH THEIR 112. THAT SEEMS TO BE THE GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG TRADERS I'VE TALKED TO. BUT ARGENTINA IS A  WILDCARD AND THE CROP ESTIMATES THERE ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO  FALL IN MY OPINION. ARGENTINA IS ALSO THE BIG EXPORTER OF MEAL AND  THERE MAY BE SOME IMPLICATIONS THERE.   SO IS THE QUESTION HOW GOOD IS GOOD IN BRAZIL AND HOW  BAD IS BAD IN ARGENTINA AND IF THOSE WILL OFFSET EACH OTHER OR  OVERALL WHAT DO YOU THINK WE'RE GOING TO SEE WITH BRAZIL AND  ARGENTINA WHEN YOU PUT THOSE TWO TOGETHER.   IT'S HARD TO HAVE A DROUGHT IN THE RAIN FOREST FIRST OF ALL. SO  I WOULD SAY THAT THEIR CROP IS MOSTLY HARD TO HURT. IN ARGENTINA  THEY SAY THIS DROUGHTS LIKE PRETTY BAD AND IT'S LIKE WE GET  FORECASTS FOR RAIN FOR THEM THEY JUST DON'T HAPPEN. LIKE I'VE BEEN.  STILL WAITING FOR THE FIVE INCHES THAT WAS SUPPOSED TO SHOW UP IN  DECEMBER AND NEVER HAPPENED. SO SO LIKE WE'RE FORECASTING RAIN FOR THIS WEEKEND AND THEY KEEP THEY MOVED IT BACK AND  MAYBE IT HAPPENS I THINK HALF OF THE AREA IS GOING TO BE PRETTY  LIGHT ON THE RAIN SIDE OF IT. YOU DO GET RAIN IN A DROUGHT. IT LOOKS  LIKE YOU COULD SEE A COOL DOWN. BUT THEY'VE BEEN MESSING  AROUND WITH THE RIDGE I THINK IS PROBABLY A PRETTY BIG DEAL AND  THIS ISN'T A GOOD ONE AND WE GET RIGHT BACK INTO A 100 DEGREE  TEMPS. I THINK IT WILL OUTWEIGH WHAT'S GOING ON IN BRAZIL. AND  THAT'S WHEN WE DO. YEAH I DO THINK OR THINK IT'S KIND OF IT'S A BIG  DEAL. CHINA BUYS A HECK OF A LOT OF BEANS FROM THEM.  JOE I MEAN DO YOU AGREE WITH THAT. BECAUSE HERE FROM A  U.S. FARMER LISTENING TO THIS RIGHT NOW I THINK HEY WE COULD SEE  SOME UPSIDE POTENTIAL WITH OUR BEAN PRICES THAT ARGENTINA IS THAT  BAD. I MEAN WHAT DO YOU THINK.   WELL FIRST OF ALL I THINK THAT THE MARKET ACTS REALLY REALLY WELL  ALL THINGS CONSIDERED. I MEAN WE'VE GOT TO CARRY OUT PROJECTION  NORTH OF 500 MILLION BUSHELS NOW. AND YOU'VE GOT NOVEMBER  FUTURES STILL AT TEN DOLLARS AND MOST PEOPLE WOULD PROBABLY TELL  YOU THEY SHOULD BE AT NINE DOLLARS OR SOUTH OF THERE GIVEN THAT  PROJECTION. SO THEY'VE HELD TOGETHER REALLY WELL SOME OF IT HAS TO  DO WITH SOME LARGER FACTORS I THINK WE'VE GOT A RETURN TO VOLATILITY  IN A LOT OF FINANCIAL MARKETS. AND I THINK THE GRAIN MARKETS ARE  STARTING TO FEEL THAT JUST A LITTLE BIT AND MEAN AND HE TALKED TO OFF  AIR I THINK THE FUNDS HAVE SOME AVERSION TO SHORT POSITION IN THE  BOND MARKET FOR WHATEVER REASON.   SO $10 DOLLAR DOLLAR BEANS IS THAT SOMETHING WE SHOULD BE  TAKING ADVANTAGE OF AT THIS POINT.  WELL LAST YEAR WE TRADED TEN DOLLARS BETWEEN 10 AND 60 I  WHEN I SAY LIKE FIVE TIMES. SO LIKE I'VE BEEN SELLING IT BETWEEN 10  AND 60 WHENEVER IT HAPPENS YOU KNOW WHETHER IT'S OLD CROP OR  NEW CROP AND I'LL KEEP DOING THAT. AND IF THE MARKET EVER EXTENDS  THAT I KNOW THAT THAT'S LIKE THE BIG ONE THE REALLY BIG RALLY THAT YOU  WANT TO BE SERIOUS ON WHATEVER YOU'RE DOING. RIGHT. BUT I'VE  SEEN THIS BEFORE AND I WOULD JUST HAVE GUYS HIT IT EACH TIME WE  GET ONE OF THESE RALLIES. YOU AGREE WITH THAT? $10 BEANS  ATTRACTIVE.   YEAH I THINK SO ESPECIALLY IF THEY MAKE MONEY AND WE'RE  IN THE PROCESS OF SETTING SPRING INSURANCE PRICES AND THAT'LL GIVE  US A LITTLE BIT MORE TO PIVOT OFF OF ONCE WE'VE GOT A BETTER IDEA AS  TO WHAT THAT'S GOING TO BE.   WHAT ABOUT CORN NOW WHEN YOU LOOK AT SOUTH AMERICA  HOW IS THAT CROP PANNING OUT.  YU KNOW THE BRAZILIAN GOVERNMENT HAD THE REPORT OUT  THIS WEEK AND THEY DROPPED THEIR CORN PRODUCTION ESTIMATE BY A  LOT. THEY'RE WELL BELOW USDA ARGENTINA CORN IS GOING TO BE  DOWN AS WELL. SO WE'RE DOING MUCH BETTER EXPORT BUSINESS AND  MORE ON THE ETHANOL GRINDS BUT STRONG. SO I SEE THE DEMAND AS  BEING VERY VERY GOOD. WE'VE GOT ESSENTIALLY THE CHEAPEST FEED  GRAIN ON THE WORLD MARKET RIGHT NOW SO THE DEMAND SIDE IS  BRIGHT.  SO IF DEMAND IS GOOD AND LET'S SAY WE DO HAVE LOWER  ACREAGE IN CORN YOU KNOW WHAT PRICE POTENTIAL ARE YOU TALKING  ABOUT THERE.   WELL I MEAN YOU'RE CLOSE TO FOUR DOLLARS ON NEW CROP CORN  ALREADY. SO THERE ARE PRICE AND SOME OF THAT. AND WE HAVE HUGE  DEMAND. ACRES COULD BE 90 AND 90 RECORD AND BEANS COULD BE  88 IF IT'S 88 THAT I THINK WE COULD HIT ANOTHER LEVEL OF PRICE YOU  KNOW WITH A YIELD I WOULD SAY I LOOK AT IT LIKE THIS FOR HOURS. SO IF  THAT HAPPENS YOU'RE 50 CENTS ABOVE THAT. THE CROPS GOOD WITH  50 CENTS BELOW THAT RANGE. THAT'S WHAT WE'LL BUILD QUITE WELL.   WE'VE SEEN SOME IMPRESSIVE WHEAT PRICES WE NEED TO  TALK ABOUT THAT AS WELL IS CHINA. YOU KNOW IT'S REALLY AN  UNKNOWN. COULD WE SEE CHINA BACK AWAY FROM SOY SHIPMENTS  CONSIDERING WHAT THEY DID WITH SORGHUM RECENTLY. WE'LL TALK  ABOUT THAT WHEN WE COME BACK ON U.S. FARM REPORT. 

ROUNDTABLE 2
WELCOME BACK TO US FARM REPORT. WELL I MEAN YOU'VE  SEEN SOME IMPRESSIVE ACTION IN THIS WHEAT MARKET SINCE LATE  JANUARY. CAN THAT CONTINUE CONSIDERING THE NUMBERS THAT WE  RECENTLY SAW ON WEDNESDAY.  THIS IS A CLASSIC CROP SCARE RALLY. IN MY OPINION WE HAVE  NO IDEA WHAT TYPE OF WINTER WHEAT CROP WE WILL PRODUCE BECAUSE  THERE IS A DEVELOPING OR INCREASING DROUGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  PLAINS AND ALSO IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THAT MATTER AND SOME  OF IT'S CREEPING INTO THE CORN BELT. SO THIS IS WHERE THE MARKET IS  TOTALLY UNCERTAIN REGARDING PRODUCTION AND THE FUNDS WANT OUT OF  THEIR SHORT POSITION. MOST OF THE TIME THESE SORT OF CROP SCARES  OFFER THE FARMERS WITH SOME OF THEIR BEST MARKETING OPPORTUNITIES  OF THE WHOLE YEAR. THE PROBLEM IS YOU CAN'T MARKET GRAIN IF YOU  DON'T KNOW IF YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE A CROP. SO THIS IS WHERE  OPTIONS AND STRATEGIES WHERE YOU CAN SET SOME FLOORS WITHOUT  COMMITTING BUSHELS COME INTO PLAY.  ALSO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AROUND CHINA. WE SAW THIS WEEK  WITH SORGHUM POSSIBLY IMPACTED FROM CHINA UPSET WITH THE U.S.  AND LOWER SORGHUM SHIPMENTS IN THE FUTURE.  WHAT DO YOU THINK CAN HAPPEN WITH SOYBEANS. I MEAN THAT'S THE SCARE WE SAW SOME TARIFFS ON YOU KNOW ON WASHING  MACHINES AND SOLAR PANELS AND POSSIBLY STILL IN ALUMINUM. NOT  SURE WHAT'S NEXT. WHAT DO YOU THINK CHINA CAN DO IN RESPONSE.   I HOPE WE DON'T SEE A TARIFF AND WE GET INTO THAT KIND OF  NASY TRADE BECAUSE THAT IS IT POSSIBLE. IT'S POSSIBLE. I THINK IT'S  FROM WHAT I'VE HEARD IT'S UNLIKELY. OK. BUT I'VE HEARD WITH THESE  YOU KNOW WHAT THE CRAZY POLITICS THAT'S GOING ON AND THEY'LL DO  WHATEVER THEY WANT TO DO AND IT WOULDN'T CHANGE THEIR BUYING  HABITS. I DON'T THINK AT ALL THAT IT'S SUCH A SMALL AMOUNT OF WHAT  THEY SPEND MONEY ON SOYBEANS IN THE COURSE OF A YEAR OR SO.  IT'S A BIG IMPACT TO US. IT'S A VERY LITTLE IMPACT TO THEM AND EVEN IF  THEY HAD TO PAY MORE FROM A GOVERNMENT STANDPOINT I THINK THEY  REALLY CARE. SO LIKE THEY WOULD PLAY HARDBALL. I HOPE THEY DON'T. I  DON'T THINK THAT THEY WILL.   BUT LIKE ANDY SAID SMALL IMPACT MAY BE FOR THEM BUT IT  WOULD HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON US. JOE. WELL.   KIND OF LIKE ANDY SAID CHINA'S DEMAND FOR SOYBEANS IS  HUGELY INELASTIC MEANING THAT THEY'RE GOING TO BUY BEANS NO  MATTER WHAT THE PRICE. IT DOESN'T MATTER A DOLLAR MEANS 16 DOLLAR  BEANS THEY'RE PROBABLY GOING TO BUY THE SAME AMOUNT. THEY  MIGHT SWITCH ORIGINS DEPENDING ON WHAT TYPE OF CASH MARKET  THEY CAN DEAL WITH. BUT I DON'T KNOW.  I'M HOPING THAT THAT DOESN'T BECOME A PROBLEM. I'M  HOPING SO TOO. YOU KNOW WE'VE BEEN DISAPPOINTED IN SOYBEAN  EXPORTS OVERALL BUT LOOKING AT THESE LATEST BEEF AND PORK EXPORTS  MEAT SHIPMENTS ARE HOLDING UP PRETTY PRETTY PRETTY WELL.   IT'S BEEN REALLY STRONG IN THE CATTLE MARKET ITSELF HAS HELD  TOGETHER A LOT BETTER THAN A LOT OF PEOPLE WOULD HAVE GUESSED  GIVEN THE NUMBERS WE'VE SEEN FROM USDA. I MEAN LARGER JUST  BIGGER NUMBERS EVERY SINGLE CATTLE FEED REPORTS MORE BEARISH  THAN THE LAST ONE YOU KNOW. AND AND YET THE MARKET STILL  CONTINUES TO HOLD TOGETHER. THE NAFTA THING COMES INTO PLAY  HERE A LITTLE BIT. AND I KNOW THAT THINGS LOOK A LITTLE BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC IN REGARD TO NAFTA. AND PEOPLE ARE MORE OPTIMISTIC  THAT WE'RE GOING TO COME TO SOME SORT OF AGREEMENT HERE. BUT  THAT WOULD BE THE BIG WILDCARD IF ANYTHING.  BUT HAVE YOU BEEN IMPRESSED WITH HOW THESE CATTLE  PRICES HAVE HELD UP CONSIDERING THIS GROWING GROWING CATTLE HERD. I MEAN I KNOW DEMAND'S BEEN REALLY GOOD BUT GOSH THESE NUMBERS JUST KEEP GETTING BIGGER.   WELL THE STORY HAS BEEN THAT THERE'S A HOLE IN THE CASH  MARKET AND IT'S GOING TO LAST TWO MONTHS. AND THAT STORY JUST  KEEPS GOING ON AND ON AND ON. AND THE TO UPHOLD EXTENDS ITSELF  A LOT OF ITS FUN TRADE THOUGH.   I MEAN A LOT OF TIMES IF YOUR STOCK MARKETS GO UP YOUR  CATTLE MARKET IS GOOD AND YOU SEE YOUR 10 AND 14 DOLLAR RANGES  AND STUFF LIKE THAT. BUT THE FEEDER MARKET'S BEEN REALLY GOOD AS  WELL IN THE 50S AND THEY SELL THEM FOR NUMBERS THAT ARE CLOSE TO  THAT ARE HIGHER AND THE CASH MARKET WE SEEM TO FIND A PLACE AT  125 TO 127. BUT NEXT SUMMER THEY'RE PRICING IN THE HOLE WHERE  THE HOLES OVER'S WHEN YOU GET INTO THE SUMMER BONDS MOVE INTO  JULY AND AUGUST ARE ITS PRICE 10 15 BUCKS DIFFERENCE AND WILL THAT  ACTUALLY BE THERE. I DON'T KNOW. I MEAN I KIND OF DOUBT IT.   WELL YOU MENTIONED STOCK MARKET. WHAT A CRAZY WEEK FOR  THE STOCK MARKET EVEN AT THE END OF THE DAY. YOU KNOW WHAT IS  DRIVING THE STOCK MARKET RIGHT NOW AND WHAT IMPACT COULD OR WILL  THAT HAVE ON COMMODITY PRICES.   IT'S REALLY PEOPLE WERE TALKING ABOUT MONEY MOVING OUT OF  STOCKS INTO OTHER THINGS AND THEN WHEN YOU LOSE YOUR MONEY  THAT WAS IN STOCKS. THERE'S LESS TO SPEND ON OTHER THINGS. THIS  CAN BE GOOD FOR US IN THAT IT'S NOT AN EASY RIDE IN THE STOCKS. I DON'T THINK STOCKS ARE GOING TO LIQUID OUT LIKE A TYPE OF SCENARIO. I  DON'T REALLY SEE THAT RIGHT NOW. SO I THOUGHT I WOULD SAY THIS IS  GOOD AND I WOULD THINK THE VOLATILITY SHOULD HELP SOME OF THESE  OTHER MARKETS GET GET SOME INTEREST.   I WOULD SAY AND YOU KNOW WE'VE HEARD MILLIONS OF YOU  HAVE MAYBE IF THE MONEY EXITS THE STOCK MARKET AND THEN IT WILL  COME INTO COMMODITIES BUT THAT'S NOT REALLY HAPPENING.  IT'S NOT THAT SIMPLE BUT I THINK THE BIGGEST THING GOING ON IN  THE FINANCIAL MARKETS RIGHT NOW IS THE UNWIND OF WHAT HAD BEEN  THIS LOW VOLATILITY TRADE FOR MONTHS FOR YEARS IN SOME MARKETS.  AND IT IS UNWINDING VERY VERY QUICKLY IN THE STOCK AND IT WE'RE  STARTING TO FEEL A LITTLE BIT OF IT IN THE GRAINS. WE COULD USE SOME  MORE OF THAT.  I CAN'T BELIEVE WE CAN TRADE 7500 LOWERED STOCKS. YEAH I.   I WAS JUST BLOWN AWAY THAT WE COULD DO THAT. YEAH.   IT'S JUST NOT REALLY. ALL RIGHT WE NEED TO TAKE A QUICK BREAK  BUT WHEN WE COME BACK GET CLOSING THOUGHTS COMING UP FROM  ANDY AND JOE. 

MARKETS NOW
ALL RIGHT WELCOME BACK. TIME NOW FOR CLOSING THOUGHTS.   ANDY LET'S START WITH YOU THINK. WATCH NEW CROP CORN AND  BEANS OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH THE ARGENTINA WEATHER. I HAVE  ORDERS TO SELL CORN FOR DOLLARS OR ABOVE AND THE HITS THERE I HOPE  IT DOES. MAYBE IT WILL HAVE SOLD SOME BEANS BETWEEN 10 AND 10  10 KIND OF RIGHT WHERE THEY ARE MOVES UP TOWARDS 10 40 I WOULD  DO SOME MORE. I THINK THE ACRES ARE GOING TO BE HEAVY ON THE  INSIDE SO I WOULD MAKE SURE I HEDGE AND DO SOME BEAN TRADES  BEFORE MARCH 20 AND 29. OK. ALL RIGHT GOOD ADVICE. THANK YOU  JOE.   HOPING TO SEE MORE VOLATILITY IN THE GRAIN MARKETS THAT'S  SOMETHING THAT'S REALLY BEEN LACKING WITHOUT VOLATILITY WE JUST  DON'T GET THE OPPORTUNITIES. I'M ON A SIMILAR PAGE WITH ANDY IN  REGARD TO MARKETING. YOU KNOW I'M INTERESTED IN SELLING MORE AT  THE FOUR DOLLARS THESE CORE NORTH OF TEN DOLLARS. NO BEANS AND  HOPING TO GET A GOOD CHUNK OF IT DONE IN THE SPRING AND THEN ANY  SORT OF SUMMER WEATHER SCARE GIVES YOU THE CHANCE TO DO THE  REST AND PLAY CATCH UP.  ALL THAT CREATES OPPORTUNITY. REACHES ALL THE TIME. THANK  YOU JOE. THANK YOU. ANDY WE APPRECIATE YOU BOTH JOINING US. ALL  RIGHT WE NEED TO TAKE A QUICK BREAK AND THEN WE'LL HAVE A CHECK  WITH JOHN. 

JOHN’S WORLD
THE FARM BILL IS GARNERING AS MUCH ATTENTION AS  TRADE NEGOTIATIONS THIS YEAR.  BUT WHAT ARE JOHN PHIPPS' EXPECTATIONS OF A NEW  FARM BILL? HE JOINS US NOW FROM THE FARM.  FARMERS ARE BEGINNING TO PAY MORE ATTENTION TO THE WRITING OF A  NEW FARM BILL. WE ARE LISTENING TO ECONOMISTS, LEGISLATORS, AND  FARM LEADERS WHO ARE LIFTING UP IDEAS ABOUT WHAT IT SHOULD LOOK  LIKE. SOME COMMON THEMES ARE EMERGING. DAIRY AND COTTON  PRODUCERS WANT A BETTER DEAL THAN THE LAST BILL. GRAIN FARMERS  WANT ADJUSTMENTS TO HOW ARC AND PLC PAYMENTS ARE  CALCULATED AND AT THE LEAST NO REDUCTION IN CROP INSURANCE  SUBSIDIES. THERE ARE VOICES CALLING MORE CONSERVATION PROGRAMS  AND EXPANSION OF THE CONSERVATION RESERVE. UNIVERSITIES ARE  CONCERNED ABOUT AG RESEARCH FUNDING. AWAY FROM AGRICULTURE,  THERE IS CONSTANT CHATTER ABOUT REFORMING OR CUTTING THE SNAP  PROGRAM. ALL THESE ISSUES WILL RECEIVE CONSIDERABLE ATTENTION IN THE FARM  MEDIA OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. WHILE I WILL BE FOLLOWING AS BEST  I CAN DEVELOPMENTS IN THE POSSIBLE OUTCOME, THAT'S NOT WHERE  MY ATTENTION WILL CENTER. I THINK ALL THESE IDEAS WILL BE  OVERSHADOWED BY THE BOTTOM LINE - FEDERAL BUDGET BATTLES.  VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE CHANGES OR IMPROVEMENTS BEING DISCUSSED  NOW WILL REQUIRE NEW DOLLARS TO FUND THEM OR APPROPRIATIONS  GRABBED FROM ANOTHER PROGRAM IN THE FARM BILL. UNLESS THE  OVERALL COST OF THE FARM BILL RISES, FARMERS LOOKING FOR MORE HELP  IN TOUGH TIMES ARE OUT OF LUCK. SO MY PLAN IS TO WATCH HOW  BUDGET BATTLES ARE FOUGHT IN CONGRESS.  GIVEN THE RESULTS TO DATE, THIS IS MY EXPECTATION OF THE FARM BILL.  . THE MOST PROBABLE OUTCOME I CAN ENVISION IS AN EXTENSION OF  THE CURRENT BILL FOR ANOTHER YEAR. I BASE THIS PREDICTION ON THE  SERIES OF CONTINUING RESOLUTIONS THAT WE ARE USING SIMPLY TO KEEP  THE DOORS OPEN. 2. IF WE DO GET A NEW FARM BILL, WE WON'T BE SURE WHAT IS IN IT UNTIL  IT'S LAW. 3. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL BE SURPRISES, TO WHICH WE WILL ADAPT.  MOST IMPORTANTLY, I THINK, IS FOR PRODUCERS TO BE REALISTIC ABOUT  WHAT ANY LIKELY FARM BILL CAN DO FOR THEM RIGHT NOW. BLUNTLY PUT, I  CAN'T ENVISION ANY LEGISLATION THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE OR  DIMINISH FARM INCOME FOR THE WHOLE SECTOR. IT WON'T SAVE US; IT  WON'T KILL US. OUR AGRICULTURAL SYSTEM TODAY IS LESS ABOUT FARM  PROGRAMS AND MORE ABOUT COMPETITION AND TRADE. GETTING  DISTRACTED FROM THOSE STRUGGLES BY A SHINY OBJECT LIKE THE FARM  BILL IS A MISTAKE. THANKS, JOHN... FAKE MEAT--- A SIGN OF CHANGING  TASTES OR JUST A FAD THAT COULD QUICKLY GO  AWAY? THAT'S OUR FARM JOURNAL REPORT AFTER THE  BREAK. 

HEADLINES
WELCOME BACK TO U-S FARM REPORT THIS WEEKEND.  WE HAVE MUCH MORE AHEAD.  A FRAGILE FARM ECONOMY AS INCOME CONCERNS  GROW. FAKE MEAT IS GAINING GROUND, BUT IS IT A FAD OR A  TREND?  AN INSIDE LOOK AT HOOSIER BASKETBALL GAINED  NATIONAL ATTENTION THANKS TO ONE POPULAR MOVE.  AND A VIEWER WANTS TO KNOW IF ALL THIS TALK  ABOUT BREAK EVEN WITH CASH IS REALITY OR  FANTASY.

NET FARM INCOMES
NOW FOR THE HEADLINES...USDA AG SECRETARY  SONNY PERDUE CALLS THE AG ECONOMY 'FRAGILE' AND  THE AGENCY'S LATEST NET FARM INCOME FORECAST  SAYS 2018 COULD BE THE INDUSTRY'S WORST IN MORE  THAN A DECADE. USDA ROLLING OUT ITS EXPECTATIONS FOR 2018  WEDNESDAY. IT ANTICIPATES NET FARM INCOME, A BROAD MEASURE  OF PROFITS, TO DECREASE NEARLY 7 PERCENT (6.7  PERCENT) FROM 2017 TO $59.5 BILLION. THAT WOULD BE THE LOWEST NET FARM INCOME  NUMBER SINCE 2006.  NET CASH FARM INCOME IS ALSO FORECAST TO  DECREASE DOWN ABOUT 5 PERCENT (5.1 PERCENT) TO  $91.9 BILLION...OR THE LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 2009.  NOW IF YOU ADJUST THE NUMBER FOR INFLATION TO  LEVEL THE PLAYING FIELD OVER TIME....2018  FORECASTS WOULD STACK UP AS THE WORST YEAR  SINCE 2002. NET FARM INCOME HAS DECLINED ROUGHLY 50  PERCENT OVER THE PAST FOUR YEARS.

AG ECONOMY BAROMETER
FARMERS SENTIMENTS ON THE ECONOMY TAKING A  TURN HIGHER.  THE REASON? TAX RELIEF.  THE LATEST AG ECONOMY BAROMETER TRENDING  LOWER IN LATE 2017, BUT NOW MOODS ARE BECOMING  MORE UPBEAT.  PURDUE AND CME SURVEYS 400 AG PRODUCERS.  JANUARY'S RESULTS SHOW SENTIMENTS CLIMBED 9  POITNS, NOW AT 135.  THE BAROMETER SHOWING THE LARGEST ONE MONTH  IMPROVEMENT SINCE PRESIDENT TRUMP WAS ELECTED.    AFTER A VERY BRIEF GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN CONGRESS PASSING A  BUDGET BILL THIS WEEK BUT FARM JOURNAL WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT JIM WIESEMEYER SAYS MORE PROVISIONS ARE STILL  IN THE WORKS FOR WHEN THE FINAL OMNIBUS SPENDING BILL IS UNVEILED.  THE DEAL DOES INCLUDE PUTTING COTTON IN TITLE 1 OF THE FARM BILL AS  WELL AS A 20 MILLION DOLLAR CAP ON LIVESTOCK INSURANCE PROGRAMS.  IT ALSO BOOSTS THE MARGIN PROTECTION PROGRAM FOR DAIRY. NOW THE  DEAL DOES INCLUDE 90 BILLION DOLLARS IN DISASTER RELIEF WHICH WOULD  HELP PRODUCERS HIT BY HURRICANES AND WILDFIRES. ONE OF THE PROVISIONS NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME IS A FIX TO SECTION 199 A AND  TAX REFORM ON MANY GRAIN PRODUCERS HOPE THE TAX PROVISION  STAYS PRIVATE ELEVATORS SAY THE NEW TAX PROVISION PUTS THEM AT A  DISADVANTAGE. 

BAYER-MONSANTO MERGER
JUST DAYS AFTER BRAZIL GAVE THE NOD FOR THE 63.5  BILLION DOLLAR BAYER, MONSANTO ACQUSITION TO GO  THROUGH, BAYER MAKING MORE CONCESSIONS IN  ORDER TO SECURE E-U AND U-S APPROVAL.  RUETERS REPORTING BAYER SAYING THIS WEEK IT  PLANS TO SELL ITS VEGETABLE BUSINESS. IT'S ALSO ALLOWING BASF EXCLUSIVE ACCESS TO IT'S  DIGITAL FARMIG DATA.  THAT'S IN ADDITION TO BAYER ALREADY AGREEING TO  SELL ITS ENTIRE U-S BUSINESS, BOTH SEED AND  CHEMICALS, TO BASF.  JUST LAST WEEK, THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION VOICING  IT'S RELUCTANCE TO  THE BAYER, MONSANTO BUYOUT,  SAYING IT WOULD REDUCE COMPETITION IN  PESTICIDES, SEEDS AND PLANT TRAITS. 

WEATHER
THAT'S IT FOR NEWS...METEOROLOGIST MIKE  HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH HIS EXTENDED  FORECAST. MIKE, LOOKING AT THE LATEST DROUGHT  MONITOR AND IT'S MOISTURE RELIEF THE MAJORITY OF  THE COUNTRY IS STILL WAITING ON.   WELL TIME MOST OF THE NATION THIS WEEK WON'T GET A WHOLE  LOT OF MOISTURE BUT THE AREAS WHERE THE SEVERE DROUGHT IS IN  EFFECT YOU MIGHT ACTUALLY. WE'LL SHOW YOU THAT IN A SECOND.  THERE'S OUR JET STREAM AS WE HEAD INTO THIS WEEK. THIS CUT OFF  LOW. THIS IS WHERE YOU ACTUALLY GET MOISTURE COMING INTO THE  SOUTHWEST AND THIS IS WHY WE EXPECT THE SECOND HALF OF THIS  WEEK ACTUALLY TO BE KIND OF WET IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF  THE COUNTRY. WHEN YOU GET A SPLIT FLOW LIKE THIS IT'S COLD IN THE  NORTHERN TIER OF STATES BUT VERY WARM IN THE SOUTHEAST IN THE  SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THAT CONTINUES ON INTO FRIDAY AS WELL. AS WE  HEAD INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE OUR MODELS TRYING TO  DO THE SAME THING MAYBE ANOTHER CUT OFF INTO THE SOUTHWEST  EVENTUALLY. EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK HERE'S THE WAY THINGS LOOK  OVER THE NEXT 30 DAYS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MISSOURI  VALLEY GREAT LAKES NORTHERN PLAINS ABOVE NORMAL SOUTHEAST  MOST OF THE WEST PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 30 DAYS AND GOING  NEAR NORMAL IN THIS DROUGHT AREA BECAUSE YOU'RE GOING TO GET  SOME MOISTURE ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE  NORTHEAST BELOW NORMAL IN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THANKS, MIKE. 

FARM JOURNAL REPORT
WE'VE SEEN THE BATTLE UNFOLD OVER MILK THAT  COMES FROM PLANTS AND NUTS INSTEAD OF ANIMALS. BUT NOW THE NATIONAL CATTLEMEN'S BEEF  ASSOCIATION IS TARGETING 'FAKE MEAT' TO ITS POLICY  AGENDA THIS YEAR. AS PLANT BASED PROTEINS AND MEATLESS BURGERS  ARE GROWING IN POPULARITY, BETSY JIBBEN  EXPLORES WHETHER IT'S A TREND THAT COULD BE A  THREAT TO THE INDUSTRY, OR A SIGN OF CHANGING  TIMES AND TASTES.  STEP INSIDE BURGER FI IN TEMPE, ARIZONA A FOOD CHAIN SPECIALIZING IN BURGERS. FROM TRADITIONAL  TO SPECIALTY  TO VEGGIE  AND EVERYTHING INBETWEEN.  <"WE ARE IN THE PREMIUM BURGER MARKET SO EVEN THOUGH WE  EXECUTIVE IN A QUICK PACE, WE TRY TO SERVE A HIGHER-BURGER,"> YET, THERE'S A NEW PLANT-PROTEIN 'PROTEIN' ON THE  MENU CALLED BEYOND BURGER - A MEAT SUBSTITUTE DESIGNED TO LOOK FEEL SMELL AND IMPERSONATE THE TRADITIONAL STAPLE. <"WE ALWAYS SEE NEW TRENDS COMING AROUND BUT A LOT OF THEM  ARE GIMMICKY, A FLASH IN THE PAN,"><"THIS IS REALLY SUSTAINING ITSELF AND IN FACT, IT'S CONTINUING TO  GROW FROM WEEK TO WEEK. I'M NEVER SEEN A PRODUCT LAUNCH BE SO  SUCCESSFUL RIGHT OUT OF THE GATE,"> THE BURGER CONCEPT GAINING ATTENTION ON TV -  THE BEYOND BURGER - CREATED BY BEYOND MEAT-  IS  SELLING IN OVER 5-THOUSAND GROCERY STORES  NATION-WIDE  COMPANIES ARE PAYING ATTENTION. MAJOR MEAT COMPANIES LIKE TYSON FOODS ARE  MAKING INVESTMENTS IN THE PLANT-BASED PROTEIN  SECTOR -  TYSON FOODS AND CARGILL ALSO FUNDING  A FOOD  TECH STARTUP CALLED - MEMPHIS MEATS - A  'CULTURED MEAT' PRODUCED DIRECTLY FROM ANIMAL  CELLS.  <"IT IS A LITTLE CONCERNING SEEING THE BIG PLAYERS INVEST THEIR  CAPITAL THAT DIRECTION BUT I THINK ULTIMATELY AT THE END OF THE DAY,  WE'RE GOING TO FIND THERE'S NOT REAL COMPETITION HERE."> <"TO ME, IT'S A LONGER TERM SITUATION AS FAR AS THAT BEING AN ISSUE  WITH REAL COMPETITION FOR BEEF, PORK AND POULTRY RIGHT NOW,"> TYSON FOODS SAYING IT'S EXCITED TO BROADEN ITS  EXPOPSURE TO INNOVATIVE, NEW WAYS OF  PRODUCING MEAT, ESPECIALLY SINCE GLOBAL PROTEIN  DEMAND HAS BEEN INCREASING AT A STEADY RATE.  THAT'S WHY SOME ANALYSTS SAY ALTERNATIVE  PROTEINS MAY BE A GOOD IDEA.  <"IF WE REALLY BELIEVE THAT WE'RE GOING TO HAVE 9.5 BILLION PEOPLE  TO FEED IN THE NEXT 30 YEARS, WE BETTER BE COMING UP WITH ALL THE  PROTEIN SOURCES WE CAN COME UP WITH,"> TYSON FOODS STATING -  IT'S INVESTING IN ITS TRADITIONAL MEAT BUSINESS BUT  EXCITED AT  BROADENING  EXPOSURE TO INNOVATIVE, NEW WAYS  OF PRODUCING MEAT, ESPECIALLY SINCE GLOBAL  PROTEIN DEMAND IS INCREASING. CLOSE THINKS THE TARGET MARKET ULTIMATELY  WON'T BE YOUNG, UPPER INCOME INDIVIDUALS. HE  BELIEVES IT WILL CHANGE OVER TIME.  <"WHERE I DO I SEE THE TARGET MARKET IS AN EMERGING MIDDLE  CLASS, PERHAPS CHINA, SOUTHEAST ASIA AND PEOPLE THAT ARE JUST  OOKING AT IMPROVING THEIR DIETS."> THE BEEF INDUSTRY IS TAKING NOTE.  ALSO TAKING A CLOSER LOOK.  - THE NATIONAL CATTLEMEN'S BEEF ASSOCIATION  UNVEILING ITS 2018 POLICY PRORITIES LAST WEEK  - ADDING 'FAKE MEAT' TO ITS POLICY AGENDA FOR THE FIRST TIME. OTHER MAJOR MEAT ORGANIZATIONS ARE WATCHING  TOO.  <" WE SEE A GREAT OPPORTUNITY IN THE BEEF BUSINESS. MY FAMILY  HAS BEEN IN THE BEEF BUSINESS 150 YEARS AND WE'RE NOT GETTING  OUT OF IT. I DON'T THINK THE REST OF PRODUCERS ARE EITHER SO GOOD FOR  THEM. AT THE END OF HTE DAY, PEOPLE WANT TO EAT A HEALTHY BEEF  PRODUCT,"> <"IT'LL NEVER SURPASS OR OVERTAKE THE TRADITIONAL BURGER BUT I CAN  SEE IT TAKING A MUCH LARGER SECTION OF OUR PRODUCT MIX IN THE  FUTURE,"> JONES SAYS THE NEW BURGER CRAZE IS BRINGING IN  NEW FACES TO HIS LOCATION AND NOT NECESSARILY  TAKING CUSTOMERS AWAY FROM TRADITIONAL BEEF. <" SO THE TRADITIONAL CHEESEBURGER IS STILLYOUR NUMBER ONE  SELLER? HIM: OH YES, NO ONE CAN BEAT A CHEESEBURGER. IT'S JUST  THE GO-TO FOR SO MANY PEOPLE,"> AND TRADITIONAL BEEF IS ST ILL ON TOP.... FOR NOW.  REPORTING FOR U.S. FARM REPORT, I'M BETSY JIBBEN. THANKS BETSY. 

TEASE
TYSON FOODS IS ALSO INVESTING IN OTHER VENTURES  FOR NON TRADITIONAL PRODUCTS.  UP NEXT, JOHN PHIPPS. 

CUSTOMER SUPPORT
IN OUR MARKETING DISCUSSION EACH WEEK, WE  THROW AROUND A LOT OF TERMS, BUT ONE THING  THAT'S CERTAIN-- MANY ANALYSTS SUGGEST FARMERS  NOW THEIR BREAK EVEN. ADN THAT SPARKED A  QUESTION FOR JOHN PHIPPS.   THINK IT WOULD BE A SAFE BET TO SAY THE WORD  "BREAKEVEN" IS USED EVERY WEEK ON THIS SHOW. LOYAL VIEWER  BRYAN ANDERSON FROM WEBSTER, SD HAS A PROBLEM WITH IT. "BREAK EVEN? TRUTH, FANTASY OR THE 1980'S? ALL I HEAR TODAY IS, "KNOW YOUR BREAK EVEN", A PHRASE USED IN  THE 1980S. IN THE CURRENT AG ECONOMY, I BELIEVE THIS TERM MAY  BE MISUSED OR MISUNDERSTOOD.  MOST FARMERS OVERESTIMATE THEIR  CASH BREAK EVEN NUMBERS BECAUSE THEY BASE THE FINANCIALS ON  UNREALISTIC PROJECTED MAXIMUM YIELDS. A BREAK EVEN SHOULD NOT  BE BASED ON MAXIMUM YIELD BUT ON A REASONABLE YIELD.  REMEMBER THE PHRASE, BREAK EVEN DOES NOT EQUAL PROFIT." BRYAN, I SHARE YOUR FRUSTRATION. THE IDEA OF KNOWING WHEN YOU  HAVE RECOVERED YOUR COSTS IS ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT OF ALL  FINANCIAL METRICS, BUT LIKE BRYAN, I THINK WE HAVE TO BE CAREFUL  HOW WE CALCULATE THAT NUMBER. FIGURING OUT YOUR BREAKEVEN COSTS PER ACRE SEEMS PRETTY  STRAIGHTFORWARD: TOTAL UP WHAT YOU'VE SPENT TO PRODUCE THE CROP.  ONE BREAKEVEN COMBINES THE VARIABLE EXPENSES LIKE FERTILIZER,  SEED, CHEMICALS, FUEL, RENT, ETC. THIS NUMBER IS DENOMINATED IN  DOLLARS PER ACRE AND IT CAN VERY ACCURATE.  BUT TO USE THAT IN MARKETING PLANS, YOU NEED A NUMBER IN DOLLARS  PER BUSHEL. THIS IS WHERE BRYAN AND I THINK IT GETS TRICKY. WHAT  YIELD DO YOU USE? MANY USE THEIR PROVEN HISTORY YIELD FROM CROP  INSURANCE, WHICH IS REASONABLE, BUT GENERATES A NUMBER NO  MORE ACCURATE THAN THE APH. SOME USE A STRAIGHT 5 OR 10 YEAR  AVERAGE. SOME OF US USE LONG-TERM TREND LINES. DEPENDING ON  WHAT YIELD YOU USE, YOU GET DIFFERENT BREAKEVEN COSTS PER  BUSHEL. NORMALLY THIS IS NOT A BIG PROBLEM, BUT WHEN PRICES ARE  LOW, YOUR BREAKEVEN COULD BE ABOVE THE MARKET, AND COMPLICATE  YOUR DECISION TO SELL. IT BECOMES A MINIMIZING LOSS RATHER THAN  MAXIMIZING GAIN. ANOTHER ISSUE WHETHER BREAKEVEN SHOULD  INCLUDE ALL YOUR COSTS, LIKE FIXED EXPENSES, FAMILY LIVING, AND  PERHAPS EVEN A PROFIT.  THE MORAL IS TO CHECK THE FINE PRINT ON BREAKEVEN NUMBERS SO  SEE WHAT BREAKEVEN POINT THEY DEFINE. THEN AS BRYAN SAYS,  REMEMBER THAT POINT IS JUST THE BEGINNING OF PROFITABILITY, NOT THE  GOAL. ABOVE ALL, FIND A WAY TO CALCULATE BREAKEVEN THAT YOU  UNDERSTAND AND FITS HOW YOU MAKE MARKETING DECISIONS.  THANKS, JOHN. IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR  COMMENTS, CONTACT JOHN AT MAILBAG AT U-S FARM  REPORT DOT COM.. HOOSIER BASKETBALL HAS ALWAYS  BEEN STRONG, BUT A POPULAR MOVIE PROPELED THAT  POPULARITY TO A NEW LEVEL. WE TRAVEL THE  COUNTRYSIDE WITH ANREW MCCREA NEXT. 

AMERICAN COUNTRYSIDE
BASKETBALL IS A STAPLE IN THE HOOSIER STATE. WHILE  IT'S ALWAYS BEEN POPULAR, ONE MOVIE BROUGHT THE  RICH HISTORY OF THE STATE'S BASKETBALL PROGRMS  TO LIVE. HERE'S ANDREW MCCREA.  MILAN, INDIANA MAY LOOK MUCH LIKE OTHER SMALL MIDWESTERN  TOWNS.  EVEN ITS NAME MAY NOT SEEM THAT SPECIAL, UNLESS YOU  KNOW THAT IN THE MOVIES IT WAS KNOWN BY THE NAME OF HICKORY.   AND THAT ONE PARTICULAR MOVIE, HOOSIERS, TOLD THE REAL-LIFE STORY OF  SMALL SCHOOL THAT CAME OUT ON TOP. (WE COMPETED AGAINST EVERYBODY.  751 SCHOOLS AND WE CAME  OUT NUMBER ONE - WORKED OUR WAY THROUGH IT ALL :07) 2:01  ON  AT THE TIME INDIANA DID NOT SEPARATE SCHOOLS BY SIZE, SO  EVERYONE COMPETED TOGETHER.  YOU CAN STILL SEE THE HUGE HAND- WRITTEN BRACKET HERE AT THAT THE MILAN 1954 HOOSIERS MUSEUM.  THAT SHOWS THE TEAMS PATH TO THE CHAMPIONSHIP.  ROSELYN  BEGAN COLLECTING MEMORABILIA ABOUT THE HOMETOWN HEROES YEARS  AGO, AND IT EVENTUALLY TURNED INTO THIS MUSEUM. (ALL OF THEM WERE FRIENDS AND NEIGHBORS, THE BOYS THAT PLAYED ON  THIS.  AND WE STILL CALL THESE 80 YEAR OLD MEN BOYS BECAUSE WE  LOVE THEM SO MUCH.  BUT THEY WERE SMALL TOWN AND ANYONE WHO  HAS LIVED IN A SMALL TOWN KNOWS WHAT IT IS LIKE AND THEY LIVED IN A  RURAL AREA MOST OF THEM AROUND THE TOWN MOST OF THE YOUNG MEN ON THE TEAM HAD PLAYED TOGETHER FOR ALL  OF THEIR LIVES.  FOUR IN PARTICULAR PLAYED BASKETBALL TOGETHER ON  THEIR FARM WHEN THE WORK WAS DONE.  A HOOP ON THE BARN SERVED  AS THE GOAL.  THAT DIRT COURT WOULD INFLUENCE THE WAY THEY PLAYED. (THEY PRACTICED ALL THE TIME, PLAYED TOGETHER.  THEY DIDN'T KNOW  THEY WERE GOING TO DO WHAT THEY DONE.  BUT ANYWAY THEY TELL THE  STORY THAT THEY ALWAYS WENT TO THE RIGHT BECAUSE THERE WAS A  MANURE PILE ON THE LEFT AT THE GOAL WHERE THEY PLAYED SO THEY GOT  INTO THISHABIT   IN THE MOVIE, GENE HACKMAN PORTRAYS AN OLDER COACH WITH A  CHECKERED PAST.  THAT WAS NOT THE CASE FOR THE REAL-LIFE COACH IN  MILAN.   (THE COACH MARVIN WOOD CAME HERE, IT WAS HIS SECOND YEAR  HERE WHEN THEY WON THE FINAL IN 1954.  BUT HE HAD COACHED HERE  AND HE WAS ONLY 26 YEARS OLD WHEN HE CAME THE TEAM WENT TO THE FINAL FOUR IN HIS FIRST YEAR AND WON THE  CHAMPIONSHIP THE SECOND YEAR.  IT WAS A MOMENT IMMORTALIZED  IN THE MOVIE HOOSIERS. AND HERE AT THE MUSEUM YOU CAN SEE AND HEAR THE REAL GAME  AGAINST MUNCIE CENTRAL.    AFTER WINNING THE CHAMPIONSHIP THE TEAM STAYED IN INDIANAPOLIS  ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND RETURNED HOME ON SUNDAY.   (SO WHEN THEY GOT HOME THEY HAD ALL OF THESE PEOPLE HERE  WAITING FOR THEM.  AND THEY SAID THERE MUST HAVE BEEN A WRECK  BECAUSE THE CARS THEY WERE IN WERE WAY OUT IN THE COUNTRY AND  THEY SAID WHAT'S HOLDING EVERYTHING UP THERE MUST HAVE BEEN A  WRECK OR SOMETHING AND IT WAS ALL THESE PEOPLE WAITING ON THEM  AND EVER SINCE THAT GAME, THE FANS SEEM TO JUST KEEP COMING -  COMING FROM ACROSS THE NATION AND AROUND THE WORLD TO THIS  MUSEUM WHERE THEY REMEMBER A LITTLE TOWN THAT BEAT THE BIG CITY  SCHOOLS AND WON THE HOOSIER STATE'S BASKETBALL CROWN.   IT'S BEEN OVER SIXTY YEARS SINCE MILAN WON THE STATE  CHAMPIONSHIP AND ALTHOUGH THE PAINT ON THE WATER TOWER HAS  FADED THE MEMORIES HAVE NOT A FACT THAT STILL BRINGS HUNDREDS OF  PEOPLE HERE EACH YEAR TO THIS MUSEUM TO PAY TRIBUTE TO A TEAM  IMMORTALIZED IN THE MOVIE HOOSIERS.  TRAVELING THE  COUNTRYSIDE…IN MILAN, INDIANA, I'M ANDREW MCCREA.

TEASE
THANKS, ANDREW. YOU CAN HEAR MORE OF ANDREW'S  TRAVELS BY VISITING AMERICAN COUNTRYSIDE DOT  COM.  WHEN WE COME BACK, WE'RE OFF TO THE LAND OF 10  THOUSAND LAKES FOR THIS WEEK'S TRACTOR TALES.

TRACTOR TALES
WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES FOLKS!  WE'RE IN MY HOME STATE  OF MINNESOTA THIS WEEK FOR A CLASSIC PAIR FROM INTERNATIONAL  HARVESTER. THIS 860 FARMAL MIGHT CATCH YOUR EYE FROM THE ROAD, BUT THE  ATTACHMENT IS WHAT REALLY TURNS HEADS.  STEVE TREBESCH SHARES  HIS STORY OF THE TRACTOR AND THE PLOW. 560 FARMALL. IT'S A ROW CROP WITH A NARROW FRONT. BUT AS MY FATHER  WAS AND IT WAS OUR THIRD TRACTOR IN OUR COLLECTION. AND IT'S KIND OF  BEEN ONE OF THE BABIES THAT WE'VE REALLY TAKE CARE OF REALLY GOOD  CARE OF. PAINT IT UP AND KEEPING IT IN GOOD SHAPE ALL THE TIME AND  WE'VE DONE SOME PAINTING ON IT. BUT IT IS THE ORIGINAL HOODS AND  ALL THE WHEELS EVERYTHING'S ALL ORIGINAL BUT WE'VE WE'VE PAINTED  THAT HERE AND THERE AND PUT SOME FENDERS ON WHEN THE 560S  CAME OUT. THEY HAD A REAR END PROBLEM AND THIS ONE HERE. THIS  IS A LATER ONE THIS IS A 1962 MODEL. AND IT WAS A BIG TRACTOR IN IT'S  DAY WE DO GO ADVENTURING PLOWING EVERY FALL WITH IT. I STUMBLE ACROSS THIS GOLD DEMONSTRATOR PLOW FROM A FRIEND OF MINE IN  IOWA. SOME WORK ON THE PLOW AND REPAINTED THE WHOLE THING AND  IT TURNED OUT PRETTY NICE. OF COURSE IT PROBABLY WON'T PLOW  ANYMORE THE REST OF ITS LIFE BUT IT DID TAKE A LITTLE TIME TO GET HER IN  SHAPE THOUGH. A LOT OF HARD WORK ON PAINTING AND JUST GETTING IT  READY. I HAVE USED IT FOR PLOWING AND TWO YEARS AGO IT WAS OUT OF  TOWN HERE AND WE PLOWED 120 ACRES.  THE PLOW ITSELF THE PAINT  WAS OFF OF IT AND THE GOLD PAINT HAD FLAKED OFF BUT THERE WAS  SOME GOLD PAINT ON IT YET AND WE'VE GOT PICTURES OF THAT IT IS  DOCUMENTED THAT IT IS A GOLD DEMONSTRATOR PLOW THIS PLOW IS NO  MATCH FOR THIS TRACTOR. I MEAN IT'S YOU CAN PUT HER IN GEAR AN D  JUST ALL DAY LONG JUST GO UP AND DOWN AND YOU SIT PRETTY WITH THIS  POOL IN POLAND SOMETHING LIKE THIS BEHIND YOU SAME PRETTY PROUD  OR SOMETHING LIKE THIS.

TEASE
THANK YOU. STAY WITH US. WE HAVE SOME PLANTING  PHOTOS. PLUS, THE DROUGHT JUST KEEPS GROWING.  BUT IS RELIEF ON THE WAY? MIKE HOFFMAN JOINS ME  NEXT.

FROM THE FARM
WELCOME BACK. WELL IT'S COLD AND WE'RE WATCHING IT SNOW  OUTSIDE LIKE I WISH IT WAS SPRING BUT THERE BE DON'T REMIND ME,  BUT OTHER AREAS ARE ALREADY GETTING STARTED ON PLANTING FOR 2018.  COLLIN POSTED THIS PICTURE IN SOUTH TEXAS. HE LIVES IN CORPUS  CHRISTI WHICH SOUNDS NICE RIGHT ABOUT NOW. POSTED THIS ON  TWITTER SHOWING THE PLANTER IS ROLLING. HE STARTED PLANTING ON  TUESDAY SAYING YOU HAVE TO START AT SOME POINT.  YOU KNOW WE'D BE PLANTING IN 10 INCHES OF SNOW AROUND  HERE. MORE THAN HALF OF TEXAS'S SWEET POTATO CROP IS ALREADY IN  THE GROUND AND MIKE WAS THERE TO CHECK OUT PLANTING THIS WEEK.  EVEN THOUGH MIKE LIVES IN INDIANA HE CAPTURED THIS PICTURE WHILE  IN THE LONE STAR STATE THIS WEEK. CHECK OUT THOSE POTATOES HE  SAYS HARVEST WILL HAPPEN IN ABOUT 90 DAYS AND SOME ARE  FOCUSING ON PLANTING.   CHECK OUT THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR I MEAN MIKE YOU'VE  BEEN SHOWING IT THE MOST WIDESPREAD IT'S BEEN IN YEARS. AND THIS  REALLY GREW QUICKLY. MIKE SIXTY NINE PERCENT OF THE U.S. SEEN  SOME LEVEL OF DROUGHT D4 OR THE EXTREME CATEGORY IS IS GROWING.  IT'S THAT RED AREA ON THE MAP. IT'S IN PARTS OF ARIZONA COVERING  MUCH OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. I MEAN WHERE  IT'S DRY. IT IS DRY AND THERE ARE GROWING CONCERNS.   IT'S A HUGE CONCERN AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE GROWING  SEASON. I WILL SAY AT LEAST TEMPORARILY THE PATTERNS GO INTO A  CUTOFF LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST WHICH DEFINITELY HELPS TO BRING IN  PACIFIC MOISTURE TO THOSE AREAS SO WE CAN HOPE OVER THE NEXT 10  DAYS THAT WE GET SOME MOISTURE ANYWAY.   HOPEFULLY FINGERS CROSSED. THANK YOU SO MUCH MIKE. WELL  IF YOU HAVE A PICTURE OR A VIDEO THAT YOU WOULD LIKE TO SEND IN  YOU CAN DO THAT TO THE ADDRESS ON THE SCREEN.

CLOSE
AND FROM ALL OF US AT U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M MIKE HOFFMAN AND IM TYNE MORGAN THANKS  FOR JOINING US. BE SURE TO JOIN US AGAIN RIGHT HERE NEXT WEEK AS  WE WORK TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION AND WE WILL BE ON THE ROAD FROM  THE NATIONAL FARM MACHINERY SHOW SO A FEW ARE THERE. COME  CHECK US OUT. WE HAVE A TAPING NEXT WEEK. HAVE A GREAT  WEEKEND EVERYONE.  

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