USFR Weekly Recap - February 17-18, 2018

February 17, 2018 03:30 AM
 
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TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
FEBRUARY 17-18, 2018

HEADLINES

WELCOME TO THIS SPECIAL EDITION OF  U.S. FARM  REPORT FROM THE NATIONAL FARM MACHINERY SHOW  IN LOUISVILLE, KENTUCKY. I'M TYNE MORGAN, AND  HERE'S WHAT'S IN STORE OVER THE NEXT 60 MINUTES.  COTTON COULD BE KING ONCE AGAIN..  PRICES MAY BE GOOD, BUT MOTHER NATURE COULD  TAKE A BITE OUT OF PRODUCTION THIS YEAR.  THE PRESIDENT ROLLS OUT HIS BUDGET CALLING FOR A  MAJOR CUT TO CROP INSURANCE.  AN INNOVATIVE DAIRY THAT FUELS THEIR OWN  OPERATION WHILE REDUCING GREEN HOUSE GAS  EMISSIONS.  AND IN JOHN'S WORLD SHOULD BARBERS BE LICENSED? <U.S. FARM REPORT - BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE DEPENDABLE, LONG  LASTING, CHEVY SILVERADO.>

NCC COTTON ESTIMATES
NOW FOR THE NEWS, COTTON IS KING ONCE AGAIN IN  THE SOUTH, BUT IT'S DRYNESS GRIPPING MUCH OF THE  AREA THAT COULD EAT INTO PRODUCTION THIS YEAR.  COTTON PRICES ARE MORE ATTRACTIVE TO FARMERS  THAN OTHER COMPETING CROPS.  AND THAT'S SHOWING UP IN THE NATIONAL COTTON  COUNCIL'S PLANTING INTENTIONS SURVEY REVEALING  COTTON PRODUCERS PLAN TO PLANT 13 POINT 1  MILLION ACRES THIS SPRING. THAT'S UP 3 POINT 7 PERCENT FROM LAST YEAR.  UPLAND COTTON ACREA ARE PROJECTED TO ACCOUNT  FOR 12 POINT 8 MILLION ACRES OF THAT.  THE BIGGEST ACREAGE JUMP IS PROJECTED TO HIT THE  SOUTHWEST, WHERE GROWERS SURVEYED SAY THEY  INTEND TO PLANT 8 MILLION MORE ACRES OF COTTON  THIS YEAR. THAT'S NEARLY A 6 PERCENT JUMP.  < I THINK RIGHT NOW THE  INDUSTRY IS JUST GOING TO HAPPEN FROM NOW UNTIL PLANTING TIMES,  PARTICULARY IN TERMS OF MARKET AND WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS,  BECASUE WE KNOW THOSE ARE GOING TO PLAY A ROLE.> PARTICULARLY TEXAS WHERE PRODUCERS  HAVE GONE MORE THAN 100 DAYS WITHOUT  MEASURABLE RAINFALL. IF WEATHER PATTERNS DON'T  TURN, ADAMS SAYS THAT COUL DIMPACT THE FINAL  PLANTED AND HARVESTED ACREAGE NUMBERS, AS  WELL AS YIELD. 

TRUMP’S BUDGET
PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP ROLLING OUT HIS BUDGET  THIS WEEK. AND WITH A CALL TO CUT 16 PERCENT OF USDA'S  DISCRETIONARY SPENDING, LAWMAKERS LIKE  SENATORS PAT ROBERTS SAYING THEY WILL IGNORE  PORTIONS OF THE PROPOSED BUDGET, INCLUDING  CUTS  TO THE FARM BILL.  THAT'S BECAUSETHE PLAN CALLS FOR CUTTING THE  FEDERAL CROP INSURANCE PROGRAM BY 22 POINT 4  BILLION FROM 2019 THROUGH 2028.

WEATHER
THOSE ARE THE HEADLINES...METEOROLOGIST MIKE  HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH WEATHER... MIKE, I SAW  A REPORT THIS WEEK THAT SHOWED AMARILLO HAD  GONE MORE THAN 120 DAYS WITHOUT MEASURE  RAINFALL. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 75 DAYS. THEY  NEED SOME RAIN.  WOW TYNE THAT IS AMAZING. I DO THINK THERE ARE SOME SMALL  CHANCES AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH THE PATTERN GETTING A  LITTLE BIT MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THAT AREA. BUT YOU CAN SEE THE  EXTREME AND EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT EXPANDING IN THAT PART OF THE  SOUTHERN PLAINS ALL THE WAY OVER INTO THE ST. LOUIS AREA BACK  THROUGH MOST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. YOU GO BACK A MONTH  AND THERE WASN'T NEARLY AS MUCH DEEP RED ON THIS MAP. SO  WATCH WHAT HAPPENED OVER THE LAST FOUR WEEKS. WE'VE GOTTEN  WORSE AND WORSE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHWEST  BUT WE'VE ACTUALLY GOTTEN BETTER IN THE LAST WEEK OR TWO IN THE  SOUTHEAST STILL SOME DRY AREAS THERE THOUGH. LET'S TAKE A LOOK.  MONDAY AS OUR WEATHER MAP. PRETTY GOOD STORM SYSTEM MOVING  THROUGH IOWA. THIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD RAIN FOR THE OHIO RIVER  VALLEY SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES NORTHERN GREAT LAKES PROBABLY  GETTING SOME SNOW OUT OF THAT ONE LITTLE BIT OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN  SNOW WITH THAT SYSTEM DIVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  AND AGAIN THAT'S THE CHANCE A LOT OF TIMES THOUGH THESE SYSTEMS  COME EAST AND DON'T PRODUCE A WHOLE LOT IN THE TEXAS  PANHANDLE. BUT WE CAN HOPE ANYWAY. ON WEDNESDAY THOSE TWO  SYSTEMS KIND OF MOVING ON UP INTO EASTERN CANADA AND THE  NORTHEAST A LITTLE BIT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE GREAT LAKES  OTHERWISE RAIN UP AND DOWN THIS COLD FRONT ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO  TEXAS SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO MAYBE GETTING A LITTLE SNOW BY  FRIDAY. THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM KIND OF RIDING ALONG THAT FRONT INTO THE  SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TENNESSEE VALLEY EVEN THE OHIO  VALLEY GETTING WET ONCE AGAIN ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COMING INTO  THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH SOME RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS. WE'LL  CHECK YOUR LONGER RANGE FORECAST COMING UP IN OUR NEXT HALF  HOUR. THNAKS, MIKE. 

TEASE
OUR MARKETING DISCUSSION IS FROM ON THE ROAD,  RIGHT HERE IN LOUISVILLE. I HAVE THREE MARKET  ANALYSTS PLUS AN AG BANKER TO TALK ABOUT WHY  WE SAW A BULLISH BEANS EARLIER THIS WEEK, AS  WELL AS HOW YOU CAN SET YOURSELF UP FOR A  SUCCESSFUL YEAR IN 2018.  WE'LL DO THAT AFTER THE BREAK. 

ROUNDTABLE 1
WELCOME BACK TO THIS SPECIAL EDITION OF U.S. FARM REPORT. EACH  YEAR WE HAVE A TAPING FOR NATIONAL FARM MACHINERY SHOW. EACH  YEAR IT DRAWS AN IMPRESSIVE CROWD TO THINK EVERYONE IN THE  AUDIENCE FOR JOINING US TODAY JUMPING RIGHT INTO THINGS IT WAS AN  EXCITING WEEK. WHEN WE LOOK AT SOYBEANS SO WE HAVE A CHIP WE  HAVE JARED. WE HAVE ALAN WE HAVE BOB TO TIE MARKET SO WE'RE  GOING TO TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT AGNONE TOO. BUT CHIP WE'LL START  WITH YOU. WHERE DID THIS MOMENTUM AND THIS WILL BE COME FROM  THIS WEEK.WELL I THINK YOU'VE FINALLY STARTED TO SEE THE OLD CROP NEW CROP  SPREADS START WORKING AND MIDDLE LEADING THE WAY. I THINK IT'S  FINALLY REACTION TO THE DRY WEATHER IN ARGENTINA HAS LASTED LONG  ENOUGH IT'S NOT A SCARE ANYMORE. THEY'RE HURTING YIELDS AND THE  MARKETS TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW FAR OF A REDUCTION DO THEY HAVE  TO FACTOR IN HISTORY AS THE YIELDS GROW.  SO THIS WAS THE MEAL DRIVEN JARED RIGHT. YES I WOULD SAY WHOLEHEARTEDLY THAT SOYBEAN MEAL HAS BEEN THE  SAVIOR FOR US SOYBEAN PRICES OVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST 60  DAYS. WE JUST GOT TO KEEP IN PERSPECTIVE WHAT'S DRIVING THAT  ARGENTINE SOYBEAN MARKET. YOU KNOW TYPICALLY THEY'RE GOING TO  RAISE AROUND 55 TO 60 MILLION METRIC TONS OF SOYBEANS AND A  HUGE PORTION OF THAT 85 PERCENT OF THAT IS USED FOR INTERNAL  SOYBEAN MEAL AND IN TURN THEY END UP EXPORTING THAT INTO THE  REST OF THE WORLD AS THE NUMBER ONE SOYBEAN EXPORTER. SO WITH  THOSE CHANGES AND WORRIES THERE IT'S CERTAINLY SHAKING UP THE  WORLD MARKET AND WORLD TRADE AND IN TURN HAS CREATED SOME  EXCITEMENT IN THE SOYBEAN MARKET EXCITEMENT. NOW THE PROBLEM WE'RE IN A LOT OF TALK ABOUT THE SWEEPING CROP  DOWN IN SOUTH AMERICA I MEAN TROUBLE IN ARGENTINA. BUT WHAT  THEY'RE HAVING TROUBLE WITH IN ARGENTINA. IT SOUNDS LIKE THEY'RE  HAVING SOME REALLY GOOD CROPS THIS YEAR IN BRAZIL. SO I KNOW  WHAT LEAVING MEAL AND I KNOW IT'S RELATED TO ARGENTINA. BUT HOW  LONG CAN THIS LAST CONSIDERING WE ARE HEARING IMPRESSIVE YIELDS  IN BRAZIL. THIS IS A CLASSIC WEATHER SCARE. WE GOT THIS WEATHER SCARE SOUTH  UNSOLVED MURDER THERE WITH HIM. WE HAVE OUR U.S. WEATHER SCARE  MARKETS AND THIS HAS GOT THE PERSONALITY. I THINK WE COULD STILL  GOT A COUPLE OF WEEKS OR THIS NEXT WEEK IS GOING TO BE  INTERESTING. IS IT MORE BUT ALSO WE'VE GOT TO DOVETAIL WITH THIS. WE  HAVE GOT THE DOLLARS SOLD OFF TO A 15 MONTH LOW. SO THE DOLLAR'S  HELPING EXPORTS. WE'RE SEEING A LITTLE BETTER EXPORTS AND THE  FUNDS HAVE GONE FROM A NET SHORT POSITION TO A NET LOSS. SO WE  GOT ALL THOSE FACTORS COME IN TO GIVE THIS MARKET LIFT AND IT'S KIND  OF SURPRISING. I THINK A LOT OF FARMERS HAVE STARTED SELLING INTO THE  NEW CROP AND WE'RE GETTING A LOT OF CASH SALES WHICH LONG TERM  NEXT SUMMER COULD BE VERY POSITIVE. SO WE'VE GOT A LOT OF THINGS.  BUT I THINK FARMERS NEED TO BE THINKING ABOUT HOW YOU CAN TAKE  ADVANTAGE OF THE SHORT TERM OPPORTUNITY. RIGHT. THE SHORT TERM OPPORTUNITY HERE TODAY AND YOU'RE LOOKING  AT SOYBEANS NORTH OF TEN DOLLARS. SO WHAT'S YOUR ADVICE. I MEAN  WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT LOCKING IN THESE 10 DOLLAR BEANS. HOW  FAR OUT SHOULD WE BE LOOKING AT THESE PRICES TODAY.  YEAH I THINK IN THE CASE OF NEW CROP BEANS WE'RE TAKING THE  PERSPECTIVE THERE ARE PROFITABLE LEVELS. WE DON'T KNOW WHERE THE  HIGH WILL BE. WE'RE OF THE OPINION ARE GOING TO PLANT MORE BEAN  ACRES. LET'S DO SOMETHING TO LOCK THAT IN. AND YOU KNOW 20 TO 35  PERCENT AS FAR AS SALES GO. MAYBE LAYER SOME PUTS AND ON TOP OF  THAT CHALLENGE THE BEAN MARKET THAT'S PROFITABLE AND I'D RATHER BE  A DOLLAR EARLY ON ON BEANS AND KICKING MYSELF BECAUSE THAT  MEANS WE'RE SELLING CORN AT A MUCH HIGHER LEVEL AS WELL TO THE  POINT OF TALKING ABOUT WHERE IS THE HIGH. JUST KEEP IN PERSPECTIVE WE'RE WITHIN A NICKEL OF THE CONTRACT HIGH FOR  NEW CROPS SOYBEANS. 2018 IS TRADED SO YOU KNOW DIPPING YOUR  TOES IN THE WATER HERE. LIKE YOU MENTIONED VOLATILITY SO DIRT CHEAP STILL THERE'S A LOT OF  TOOLS OUT THERE FOR THE PRODUCER TO USE TO HEDGE OFF A SIGNIFICANT  AMOUNT OF RISK IF THERE'S BEEN ONE THING THE PAST COUPLE OF YEARS  HAVE TAUGHT US IS YOU KNOW THERE'S A TIME DEFINITELY TO MARKET  AND IN ALLEN HAVE YOU SEEN MORE CUSTOMERS ACTUALLY TAKE  ADVANTAGE OF PRICES AND BE MORE AGGRESSIVE. YES WE ARE SEEING PEOPLE BECAUSE I THINK THEY UNDERSTAND THE BREAKEVEN IS MUCH BETTER NOW EVEN THAN THEY DID A COUPLE OF  YEARS AGO. THE PRODUCERS ARE BEING MORE ACTIVE IN PRICING GREEN  WHEN THEY KNOW THEY HAVE A PROFIT. SPEAKING OF BREAKEVENS WHEN YOU KNOW YOU'RE GETTING DOWN TO  IT AND REALLY LOOKING AT YOUR BREAKEVEN PRICE ON THE FARM WHAT IS  THE BIGGEST MISTAKE THAT YOU SEE SOME FARMERS MAKE. WHEN AND WHEN EQUATING THAT PROBABLY THE BIGGEST MISTAKE WE  SEE IS LIVING EXPENSES WILL LEFT OUT MANY TIMES OF THE BREAK EVEN  ANALYSIS AND CANDIDLY LIVING EXPENSES ARE A HUGE COMPONENT.  WE'VE SEEN IT RISE OVER THE YEARS IN MANY TIMES. IT'S THE  FORGOTTEN ELEMENT IN THAT BREAKEVEN CALCULATION. WHEN WE LOOK AT TAKING ADVANTAGE OF SOME OF THESE PRICES OLD  CROP CORN HASN'T BEEN ANYTHING THAT A LOT OF PRODUCERS WANT TO  TAKE ADVANTAGE OF. AND SO IF WE DO HAVE SOME PRODUCERS WHICH  WE KNOW THAT HAVE OLD CROP CORN STILL IN THEIR POSSESSION WHAT  SHOULD THEY BE DOING AT THIS POINT. WELL THE DILEMMA THAT WE GOT  IS I THINK WE ALL KNOW THAT FARMERS GOT TOO MUCH OLD CROP CORN IN  THE UNPRICED. AND SO THEY'RE ALL HOPING FOR A SUMMER WEATHER THEM TO HIT  SOMEBODY ELSE THAN THEMSELVES. SO IF A GUY HAS GONE THIS FAR  HE'S PROBABLY PSYCHOLOGICALLY NOT TERRIBLY INCLINED ABOUT MOVING  THE DOOR. BUT I THINK THE CHALLENGE YOU HAVE IS THAT BASS'S IS  PROBABLY GOING TO WIDEN AS MUCH AS THE FLAT PRICE. AND SO YOU'RE  GOING TO HAVE TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EVENT. I'M TALKING A 20 30 40  CENT MARKET FLAT PRICE MOVE TO OFFSET THE FACES WIDENING  EXPOSURE. SO I THINK THE BEST STRATEGY IS SELL IT AND BE DONE WITH  IT OR USE THE OLD PROP AS YOUR SPEC AND SELL THE NEW CORRUPT COIN  IN A FORM THAT YOU CAN HAVE FLEXIBILITY. CHIP REAL QUICK DO YOU AGREE WITH THAT STRATEGY. I DO. GENERALLY SPEAKING YEAH I THINK YOU'RE AT A LEVEL WHERE WE  HAVE BETTER YIELDS IN MOST AREAS THE GROSS DOLLARS BASED ON THOSE HIGHER YIELDS EVEN WITH A LITTLE BIT LOWER PRICE YOU HAVE TO  TAKE ADVANTAGE OF IT SELL THE CARRY. THAT DOESN'T MEAN THOUGH  THAT LONGER TERM I'M STILL FAIRLY FRIENDLY AND CORN A YEAR OUT. BUT  YOU HAVE TO LOGISTICALLY HANDLE THIS YEAR'S CROP. BUT LOOKING AT NEW CROP CORN PRICES WE NEED TO EXPLORE THAT AND  MAYBE WE CAN EVEN GET BOB BEAR TO TURN INTO BOB THE BULL. WE'LL  FIND OUT WHEN WE COME BACK ON U.S. FARM REPORT.

ROUNDTABLE 2
WELCOME BACK. U.S. FARM REPORT RIGHT BEFORE THE BREAK WE WERE  TALKING ABOUT OLD CROP CORN BUT WHAT ABOUT NEW CROP CORN. WE'VE SEEN SOME IMPRESSIVE DEMAND. IT SEEMS LIKE THAT STORY  MAY BE SHAPING UP THAT WE COULD SEE HIGHER CORN PRICES. WHAT'S  THE LIKELIHOOD OF THAT DO YOU PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE. WE HAD ALMOST RECORD WORLD PRODUCTION LAST YEAR AND ARE ENDING  STOCKS IN THE WORLD STILL DECLINED OVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST THREE  YEARS WE'VE SEEN AN INCREDIBLE RAMP UP IN USAGE. IF WE CAN  MAINTAIN THAT USAGE WE DON'T HAVE IT'S BEEN YEARS SINCE WE'VE  HAD AS MANY FRIENDLY THINGS HAPPEN IN THE CORE MARKET AS WE DO  TODAY. YOU'RE AT RISK OF LOSING FIVE TO SEVEN MILLION METRIC TON AT  SOUTH AMERICA. AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF US. NO U.S. PLANT IN LESS  THAN 90 MILLION ACRES OF CORN. THE MARKET NEEDS TO PROBABLY PUT  SOME RISK PREMIUM INTO YOUR NEW CROP PRICES. THAT DOESN'T  MEAN 20 30 40 CENTS HIGHER. PUT THAT IN PERSPECTIVE A DIME  MATTERS SIGNIFICANTLY TO NEW CROP CHANELS. I THINK YOU GUYS ARE  GOING TO HAVE TO DIP HIS TOES IN THE WATER HERE SOON AROUND THIS  FORT OR DECEMBER MARK BUT ONCE AGAIN WE HAVE. IT'S BEEN A LONG  TIME SINCE WE COULD BE THIS FRIENDLY CORN. YEAH YOU'RE RIGHT. I MEAN WHAT ELSE IS SHAPING UP WITH THIS CORN  PICTURE AS I'M LABELED THE BEAR REALIZED. NOW I PREPARED MYSELF FOR THIS AND I'M LONG THE MARKET IN LONG  CALLS. SO I'M GOING TO BE ABLE TO SELL 100 PERCENT OF MY  PRODUCTION BETWEEN 390 TO 4 10 AND HAD BE INDIFFERENT TO  WHATEVER THE MARKET WANTS TO DO. YOU CAN'T HURT ME YOU CAN'T  DRIVE ME OUT OF THE MARKET BECAUSE I'VE GOT PROTECTION IN PLACE  FOR BUYING IN THE MONEY PUT SO I CAN ROLL UP AND GET 50 PERCENT  OF GAIN AND PUT IN THE MONEY. NOW THAT THE MONEY AND THE THE  MONEY SO I DESPERATELY WANT TO MARKET THE RALLY SO I CAN SELL  2019 CORN ABOVE 440 450 ADD OVER A 200 ACRE DOLLAR PROFIT. TO  ME THAT IS A FABULOUS RETURN INVESTMENT AS WARREN BUFFETT SAYS  SELLING VALUE IS WEALTHY INVESTING. LET'S SWITCH THIS CONVERSATION NOW INTO A. I MEAN WE LOOK AT THE  IMPRESSIVE SUWEIDI RUN THIS WEEK BUT YOU HAVE THIS POSSIBLE  BULLISH STORY IN CORN. SO WHAT IS BUYING ACRES AT THIS POINT I MEAN  ARE YOU SOLD ON NINETY ONE AND A HALF OR POSSIBLY 92 MILLION  ACRES OF SOYBEANS CHIP WELL I THINK WE'RE GOING TO HAVE HIGHER BEAN ACREAGE NUMBER  BUT IT'S NOT JUST BEAN AND LOWER CORN ACREAGE BUT IT'S NOT JUST CORN  THAT WE'RE STEALING FROM I THINK THE BIG RALLY UP NEAR SEVEN DOLLARS  AND SPRING WHEAT THIS PAST SUMMER BOUGHT SOME ACRES IN THE  NORTH. COTTON IS IN THE MIX IN THE SOUTH AND IN BEANS AS WELL AND  SOME OF IT IS DRIVEN BY THE BANKER AS WELL IN SOME CASES SAYING  HEY HERE'S HERE'S WHERE YOUR YOUR LINE OF CREDIT IS X DOLLARS PER  ACRE AND IN SOME CASES PRODUCERS ARE CHOOSING BEANS OVER  CORN. YES SPEAKING OF THAT YOU HIT ON A TOPIC THAT I WANT TO TALK TO ALAN  ABOUT BECAUSE ALAN AND I CONTINUE TO HEAR ANALYSTS SAY YOU KNOW  YOU LOOK AT THE PROFITABILITY IN SOYBEANS AND SO WE'RE SEEING  SOME LENDERS PUSH FARMERS TO PLANT MORE SOYBEANS. IS THAT AN ACCURATE STATEMENT DO YOU THINK WE'RE SEEING THE  BANKERS PUSH PUSH THAT THE ACREAGE PICTURE TIME. I SINCERELY HOPE NOT BECAUSE IT'S THE PRODUCER THAT IS AT RISK AND  MOST NOT THE BANKER THE PRODUCER SHOULD BE THE ONE MAKING THE  DECISION RELATIVE TO WHAT CROPS THEY PLANT. NOW THE BANKER  OBVIOUSLY IS THERE TO SERVE AS A RESOURCE TO THE CUSTOMER. AND  CANDIDLY IF THE PRODUCERS HEARING FROM THEIR BANKER THIS IS WHAT  YOU HAVE TO DO I THINK IT'S CERTAINLY A VALID QUESTION FOR THE  PRODUCER TO LOOK AT THE BANKER AND SAY I WANT YOU TO EXPLAIN TO  ME WHY CANDIDLY I THINK IT'S A FAIR STATEMENT OF THE RANKERS DOING  THAT. MAYBE THEY WANT TO TALK TO A COUPLE OTHER BANKERS. I WOULD  MAKE THE SAME STATEMENT IF IT WERE OUR CUSTOMER SAYING THAT.  BUT THAT'S CERTAINLY NOT MY BOSS. HE BRINGS UP A VALID POINT AND WHEN WE LOOK AT THE SOYBEAN  ACRES STILL I MEAN I'VE TALKED TO A LOT OF FARMERS THAT ARE SAYING  YOU KNOW IT JUST MAKES SENSE RIGHT NOW FOR ME TO PLANT MORE  MORE BEANS IF WE SEE A BIG INCREASE IN THE SOYBEAN ACRES IF WE  DO SEE THAT. HOW MUCH CAN WE HOW MUCH CAN 14 PRICES TODAY  AFFORD. CONSIDERING THAT DEMAND HAS BEEN HAS BEEN LAGGING. LET ME ANSWER THAT IN JUST A LITTLE BIT DIFFERENT WAY. LET'S PUMP  THE BRAKES ON THIS IDEA THAT WE'RE GOING TO GO BLOW SOYBEAN  ACREAGE. IT'S NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE. IT COULD BE EASY TO BE  WRONG BUT IF YOU WANT TO SPLIT UP PLUS YESTERDAY GIVEN A MILLION  THIS SPRING WE'D GIVEN A MILLION THE COTTON YOU KNOW STAND OR  PREVENT PLAN OF AROUND A MILLION ACRES WE'RE ONLY TALKING ABOUT A  UNIVERSE OF AROUND 180 MILLION ACRES COMBINED. I'LL TAKE 1990  TODAY BECAUSE THAT'S REALLY THE SWEET SPOT ON SOME BLIND  DEMAND AS WELL. SHOULD WE GO PUSH BEAN ACRES TO 91 92. I THINK  IT JUST TRANSLATES RIGHT THERE ARE WORLD DEMAND WOULD MAKE A  FRIENDLY CORN MARKET. AND THERE'S A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RISK  WITHIN A WORLD STOCKS TO USE ON SOYBEANS. WHEN YOU'RE LOOKING  AT A POTENTIAL 650 TO 700 MILLION BUSHEL U.S. SOYBEAN CARRY OUT  ON TOP OF THE SOUTH AMERICA CROP OF YOU KNOW 55 AND 115 YOU  KNOW YOU'RE TALKING BIG BIG NUMBERS OF SOUTH AMERICA THAT'S JUST  NOT A FRIENDLY SITUATION. ONLY ABOUT 25 SECONDS LEFT BOB BUT YOU KNOW RIGHT NOW WHAT DO  YOU THINK IS PRICED INTO THE MARKET. I MEAN WHAT DO YOU THINK THAT MARKETS EXPECTING I THINK THE  MARKET HAS BEEN ARE GOING TO GROW. I THINK THE ISSUE JUST BROUGHT  UP WAS CORRECT. I THINK WE'RE PROBABLY ONE IN TWO MILLION. THEY  ARE IT GOES UP ANY MORE NOW THAT THINGS ARE PROBABLY GOING TO  AMBITION. AND LET'S FACE IT IF WE HAVE GOOD PLANNING CONDITIONS  AND CORN DRIFTS UP YOU'LL SEE ACRES DRIFT BACK. SO I THINK YOU'RE  PROBABLY NO MORE THAN 2 MILLION ACRES UP ONLY 1 MILLION COMING  OUT OF THAT HAVE COME OUT OF COURT. ALL RIGHT. AND IT'S ALREADY THE  BAD GUYS. NOT THE GOOD ACRES. ALL RIGHT. WE NEED TO TAKE A QUICK BREAK BUT WHEN WE COME BACK  WE'LL GET THEIR CLOSING THOUGHTS HERE ON U.S. FARMER REPORT.

MARKETS NOW
WELCOME BACK TO US FARM REPORT. TIME NOW FOR CLOSING  THOUGHTS. CHIP WELL I WOULD SAY DON'T DON'T GET TOO BARRETT UP ON CORN  LONGER TERM BUT YOU STILL HAVE TO MANAGE YOUR OWN CROP  INVENTORY. BEANS ARE AN OPPORTUNITY ZONE. SO TAKE A LOOK AT  MANAGING SOME RISK ON THE SIDE OF THE EQUATION. ALL RIGHT JAROD. CHIP HAS A REALLY GOOD POINT. MAKE SURE YOU  UNDERSTAND WHAT OPPORTUNITIES ARE ON THE TABLE EVEN IN THIS IN  THE ENVIRONMENT OF FRIENDLY NEWS INTO YOUR MARKETPLACE. HAVE A  SAFE 2018 GROWING SEASON AND I REALLY HOPE THIS IS A TURN OF THE  AG CYCLE FOR US. FARMER I HOPE SO TOO JARED ALAN UNDERSTAND YOUR BREAKEVENS  WHEN THE MARKET PRESENTS YOU OPPORTUNITIES USE YOUR MARKETING  PLAN TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THOSE. AND I ALSO WORK HIM VERY SAFE  YEAR AND WE HOPE TO SEE Y'ALL HERE AGAIN NEXT YEAR. BASICALLY IT'S PROFIT OPPORTUNITIES ARE BECOMING ME. GET YOURSELF  IN POSITION TAKE ADVANTAGE NOW'S TIME. TALK TO YOUR BANKERS  KNOW WHAT YOU'RE GOING TO DO AND HOW YOU'RE GOING TO TAKE  ADVANTAGE OF THE OPPORTUNITY OF GIVEN TO YOU THIS SUMMER WHEN  A WEATHER SCARE MARKET BEAT A BEAR. LOVE THE BEAR BECAUSE  YOU'RE LOCKING IN PROFITS. ALL RIGHT. THANK YOU ALL FOR BEING HERE WE APPRECIATE IT. WE NEED  TO TAKE A QUICK BREAK AND THEN WE'LL BE BACK WITH MORE U.S.  FARM REPORT.

JOHN’S WORLD
WELCOME BACK. LET'S HEAD NOW TO THE FARM TO  CHECK IN WITH JOHN PHIPPS.  EVERYBODY HAS A FAVORITE BUGABOO WHEN THE IDEA OF ONEROUS  REGULATIONS COMES TO MIND. THESE DAYS, OF COURSE, ELIMINATING  REGULATIONS IS ALL THE RAGE. THE ONE ECONOMISTS FEEL CAUSES  MORE ECONOMIC DRAG THAN MOST OTHER REGS IS OCCUPATIONAL  LICENSING. REQUIRING ENTREPRENEURS TO BE LICENSED BEFORE DOING  BUSINESS CAN ACT AS A BRAKE ON COMPETITION AND INNOVATION, AS  WELL AS CREATE HURDLES TO ENTRY FOR NEWCOMERS. IN THEORY, FREE  MARKETS AND CONSUMER CHOICE CAN ACCOMPLISH THE SAME QUALITY  CONTROL AS LICENSING. IF PEOPLE CANNOT DO A JOB WELL, THEY WILL GO  BROKE AS A RESULT, WITHOUT ANY GOVERNMENT INTERFERENCE. I'VE NOTICED THE EXAMPLE REGULATION OPPONENTS ALMOST ALWAYS  USE IS HAIRDRESSERS OR MANICURISTS. TO BE FAIR IT'S A BIG GROUP -  THERE ARE NEARLY 600,000 HAIRDRESSERS AND COSMETOLOGISTS IN THE  US. SHOULD THEY BE LICENSED? I HAVE NO OPINION, BUT TRUST ME,  CURRENT COSMETOLOGISTS DO. WHEN USING THIS OCCUPATION AS THE  PRIME EXAMPLE, SUCH REGULATION MAY LOOK EXCESSIVE. BUT GO ON  DOWN THE LIST OF JOBS WITH OCCUPATIONAL LICENSING. IF YOU FAVOR  CUTTING RED TAPE DO YOU FAVOR ENDING LICENSING FOR THEATER  USHERS? HOW ABOUT BLACKJACK DEALERS? HOME HEALTH AIDES?  INTERIOR DESIGNERS? LIBRARIANS? INSURANCE AGENTS? GRAIN  ELEVATOR OPERATORS? PLUMBERS? SURVEYORS? DENTAL HYGIENISTS?  ELECTRICIANS? BILL COLLECTORS? THE LONGER YOU LOOK AT OCCUPATIONAL LICENSES, THE MORE YOU  REALIZE IT'S NOT CLEAR CUT REGULATORY OVERLOAD. ALL OF THESE  OCCUPATIONS USE LICENSES TO VERIFY LEVELS OF TRAINING AND LIMIT  COMPETITION FROM OUTSIDERS. AND I AM SURE MY LIST OF  UNNECESSARY OCCUPATIONAL LICENSES WOULD NOT MATCH UP WITH  YOURS. MY POINT IS TO BE CAREFUL WHEN ANYONE RAILS ABOUT THE  BURDEN OF OCCUPATIONAL LICENSES. SUCH BURDENS ARE OFTEN A WAY  OF MANAGING THE RISK MANY OF THE JOBS ENTAIL. AND RISK IS  SOMETHING WE ALL HAVE OUR OWN OPINIONS ABOUT.

TEASE
THANK YOU, JOHN. THERE MAY BE ROWS AND ROWS OF  EQUIPMENT HERE AT THE NATIONMAL FARM MACHINERY  SHOW, BUT IT ALL PIVOTS UPON INNOVATION. UP NEXT WE HEAD TO ONE PENNSYLVANIA DAIRY WHO  HANGS THEIR HAT ON BEING INNOVATIVE... AND IT'S  THAT INGENUITY THAT'S PAYING OFF. 

HEADLINES
FROM THE STUDIOS OF FARM JOURNAL BROADCAST,  THIS IS U.S. FARM REPORT.  WELCOME BACK TO THIS SPECIAL EDITION OF U-S FARM  REPORT FROM THE NATIONAL FARM MACHINERY SHOW. AND COMING UP IN THIS HALF HOUR TEH FOCUS IS ON  TECHNOLOGY AND EQUIPMENT.  WE TRAVEL TO PENNSYLVANIA TO MEET AN INNOVATIVE  DAIRY WHO'S PUSHING THE ENVELOPE WITH  TECHNOLOGY.  WE'LL HEAD ON THE ROAD WITH MACHINERY PETE TO  MISSOURI WHERE A SURGE IN EQUIPMENT PURCHASES  WAS A SURPISE FOR ONE LOCAL DEALER TO START  2018. AND IT'S A JOHN DEERE G-- WITH A UNIQUE FRONT END--  THAT MACHINERY PETE HIGHLIGHTS IN TRACTOR TALES.

TRUMP INFRASTRUCTURE PLAN
NOW FOR THE HEADLINES, TEH SAME WEEK THAT THE  PRESIDENT ROLLED OUT HIS BUDGET, THE  ADMINSTRATION ALSO PROVIDING MORE DETAILS  ABOUT THEIR INFRASTRUCTURE PLAN, WITH A QUARTER  OF THE INVESTMENTS DEDICATED TO RURAL.  <WE WILL BUILD, WE WILL MAINTAIN AND THE VAST MAJORITY OF  AMERICANS WANT TO SEE US TAKE CARE OF OUR INFRASTRUCTURE > . THE PRESIDENT PROPOSING A ONE-AND-A-HALF  TRILLION DOLLAR PUBLIC WORKS PROJECT. . IT CALLS FOR THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT TO SPEND  200 BILLION DOLLARS OVER THE COMING DECADE...AND  IT ENCOURAGES OTHER LEVELS OF GOVERNMENT AND  THE PRIVATE SECTOR TO RAISE THEIR SPENDING ON  INFRASTRUCTURE. . IN ADDITION TO THE SPENDING, THE TRUMP  ADMINISTRATION  WANTS TO REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF  TIME TO GET THE NECESSARY ENVIRONMENTAL  PERMITS THAT OFTEN STYMIE PROJECTS. THE PRESIDENT SAYS THE 200-BILLION DOLLARS WOULD  COME FROM CUTS IN OTHER EXISTING FEDERAL  PROGRAMS.

RURAL MAINSTREET INDEX
THE AG ECONOMY MAY BE STARTING TO TURN, AS A  SURVEY THAT GUAGES AG BANKERS OUTLOOK POSTED  ITS HIGHEST READING IN 4 YEARS. CREIGHTON UNIVERSITY'S RURAL MAINSTREET INDEX  FEBURARU READING BREAKING ABOVE GROWTH  NEUTRAL.. HITTING THE HIGHEST POINT SINCE 2014. BUT ALMOST TWO-THIRDS OF BANK CEOS EXPECT FARM  EQUIPMENT SALES TO TREND LOWER FOR 2018.

WEATHER
THAT'S IT FOR NEWS...METEOROLOGIST MIKE  HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH A LONGER RANGE LOOK  AT WEATHER. MIKE, WHATYOU’RE YOUR KEEPING YOUR EYE  ON OVER THE NEXT 30 DAYS?  TYNE I WOULD SAY THE OVERALL PATTERN BECAUSE WE'VE KIND OF GONEAWAY FROM THAT PATTERN WE SAW FOR MOST OF THE WINTER WHEREAS A  BIG TROUGH IN THE EAST AND A RIDGE OUT WEST AND WE'RE SEEING  THESE TROUGHS TRYING TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND THAT'S GOOD  NEWS HOPEFULLY FOR SOME OF THOSE DROUGHT AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN  PLAINS AT LEAST IT GIVES YOU A LITTLE BIT OF A CHANCE FOR SOME  MOISTURE. SOUTHEAST THOUGH YOU SHOULD JUST STAY WARM AND  MOSTLY DRY ALTHOUGH YOU'LL GET A LITTLE BIT INTO PARTS OF ALABAMA  GEORGIA AND MISSISSIPPI. BY THE TIME YOU GET TO FLORIDA A LITTLE IF  ANY RAIN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS WEEK THERE'S WEDNESDAY  ANOTHER CUTOFF DEVELOPING OFF OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IT LOOKS LIKE  WITH SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE COMING INTO THE WEST AND THEN  MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OHIO VALLEY.  THERE IS FRIDAY SO THE COLD AIR STAYS UP NORTH AS WE HEAD  THROUGH THE WEEKEND KIND OF MORE OF THE SAME. LOOKS LIKE  ANOTHER CUT OFF TRYING TO DIVE DOWN THE COAST SO HERE'S MY  THOUGHTS ON THE NEXT 30 DAYS. I STILL THINK IT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL  FROM NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ABOVE  NORMAL IN FLORIDA AND UP THE EAST COAST ABOVE NORMAL  SOUTHWEST PRECIPITATION MULTIPLE AREAS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE OHIO  VALLEY TENNESSEE VALLEY SOUTHWEST AND THE NORTHWEST TYNE THANKS, MIKE.

FARM JOURNAL REPORT
WALKING THROUGH THE TRADE SHOW  FLOOR HERE AT NATIOAN FARM MACHINRY SHOW,  THER'S SO MUCH TECHNOLOGY ON DISPLAY.   ITS EASY TO SEE HOW ITS IMPACTING THE WAY  FARMERS DO THEIR BUSINESS. BUT TECHNOLOGY ISN'T JUST FOR TRACTORS. IN THIS FARM JOURNAL REPORT, CLINTON GRIFFITHS  TAKES US TO PENNSYLVANIA TO MEET THIS YEAR'S  INNOVATIVE DAIRY FARM OF THE YEAR WHERE  TECHNOLOGY IS KEY.  AT FIRST GLANCE... OR FIRST FEEDING...SCHRACK FAMILY FARM IN  LOGANTON PENNSYLVANIA APPEARS TO BE THE  TYPICAL DAIRY. MILKING ABOUT A THOUSAND COWS--AND FARMING 25- HUNDRED ACRES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE.  THE PARLOR THAT WE WERE IN WERE BUILT IN THE 50S AND WE  WERE MILKING TWO AND A HALF TIMES A DAY IN A DOUBLE NINE AND WE  EITHER NEEDED TO GET OUT OR GET BIGGER. 10:37 A FAMILY RUN OPERATION THAT EVEN PRE-DATES THE  BIRTH OF THE NATION.    WE'RE PART OF A FAMILY FARM THAT DATES BACK TO 1773. 59:00    THE FARMS BEEN IN THE FAMILY NOW FOR. 11 GENERATIONS OUR  GRANDCHILDREN ARE THE 11TH GENERATION. 59:26 WITH ROOTS THAT DEEP, IT'S TAKEN A COMMITMENT TO  INNOVATION AND SUSTAINABILITY TO KEEP THE PARLOR  PUMPING. FROM INSTALLING A DIGESTER AND RUNNING A 200  KILOWATT GENERATOR...IN 2006.  WE PRODUCE ABOUT 100,000 CUBIC FEET OF GAS A DAY THAT'S  RUN THROUGH THE ENGINE AND TURNED INTO 3-4 KW OF ELECTRICITY. PRODUCING ABOUT 100-THOUSAND DOLLARS WORTH  OF ELECTRICITY A YEAR. IT PROVIDES HEAT FOR WATER  AND DRYING OFFSETTING PROPANE COSTS...AND  REDUCING GREENHOUSE GASES.  THE POWER THAT WE PRODUCE HERE EXCEEDS OUR TOTAL POWER  REQUIREMENTS AND PROBABLY 25 PERCENT ABOVE THAT. IT ALSO HELPS FEED THIS...THE SCHRACK FAMILY FARM  FIELDS.  WE DID ALL THE THINGS WE'RE DOING TODAY FOR THE WRONG  REASONS.  THEY STARTED NO TILL IN THE EARLY 70'S TO AVOID  PICKING STONES--SHALLOW ROCKY SOILS BROUGHT  STONES TO SURFACE ON EVERY TILLAGE PASS.  BUT IT WASN'T UNTIL YEARS LATER THAT WE FOUND OUT THE REAL  ADVANTAGES IN THE SOIL STRUCTURE AND THE LACK OF EROSION AND  THAT'S THE SUSTAINABILITY THAT COMES ALONG WITH IT WAS NOTILL. LATELY IT'S BEEN COVER CROPS...HELPING FEED THEIR  SOIL.  THE KEY TO HEALTHY SOILS IS. COVER CROPS NO TILL NOT  DISTURBING THE SOIL AND BASICALLY MIMICKING NATURE.   WE'RE KEEPING OUR SOILS HERE AND WE'RE NOT ONLY KEEPING OUR  SOILKS, BUT WE'RE ADDING TO OUR SOILS.  A NEAR 40 YEAR COMMITMENT CONTINUES TO PAY OFF  ABOVE AND BELOW GROUND. WATER INFILTRATION  RATES ARE HIGHER,  WE HAVE AN AVERAGE INFILTRATION RATE OF 8 INCHES AN HOUR.  SO WHEN YOU KEEP THE WATER ON THE LAND YOU'RE GOING TO  KEEP THE SOIL YOU'RE GOING TO KEEP THE SEDIMENT AND YOU KEEP  THE NUTRIENTS WHERE THEY BELONG.    NUTRIENTS AND SEDIMENTS DON'T WASH OUT OR RUN  OFF...  THE BENEFITS LIE IN THE FACT THAT WE'RE KEEPING OUR SOILS  HERE AND WE'RE NOT ONLY KEEPING OURSELVES HERE BUT WE'RE  ACTUALLY ADDING TO OUR SOILS.  WE'VE HAD SOIL SCIENTISTS HAD DUG PITS THAT. WE HAVE AS  MUCH AS AN INCH OR MORE OF EARTHWORM CASTINGS THAT'S ON THE  TOP OF OUR SOILS THAT ARE ACTUALLY ADDED TO THE DEPTH OF OUR  TOPSOIL.  AN ACCOMPLISHMENT 245 YEARS IN THE MAKING AS  THIS LEGACY OF INNOVATION SHAPES THE FUTURE FOR  GENERATIONS TO COME. WHEN I LOOK AT OUR FAMILY PHOTOS AND SEE THE NEXT  GENERATION AND THE GENERATION AFTER THAT COMING. IT'S VERY  EXCITING FOR ME CONGRATULATIONS TO THE SCHRACK FAMILY FARM,  THE 2018 INNOVATIVE DAIRY FARM OF THE YEAR. THANKS, CLINTON. CONGRATULATIONS ON SUCH AN  IMPRESSIVE AWARD.  STAY WITH US, JOHN PHIPPS JOINS US AGAIN NEXT. 

CUSTOMER SUPPORT
IN CASE YOU THINK YOUR EMAILS GET LOST IN JOHN'S  INBOX, HE'S HERE THIS WEEK TO PROVE YOU WRONG.  JOHN.  OVER TIME I RECEIVE QUESTIONS THAT DON'T NEED A LONG ANSWER, SO  TODAY I'VE BUNDLED SOME TOGETHER TO FILL UP MY FULL 180 SECONDS. FIRST, FROM RUDDY ROZANEK IN INTERLOCHEN, MICHIGAN: "WHERE DOES THE TARIFF MONEY GO?" TARIFFS COLLECTED ON FOREIGN GOODS IMPORTED INTO THIS COUNTRY ARE  PAID DIRECTLY TO THE US TREASURY AND ARE NOT TREATED ANY  DIFFERENTLY THAN OTHER REVENUE SOURCES, NOR ARE THEY LINKED TO  ANY SPECIFIC EXPENDITURE.  IN 2016 WE COLLECTED ABOUT 36 BILLION  DOLLARS IN TARIFFS (WHICH IS PART OF THE "OTHER" ON THIS CHART) OR A  LITTLE OVER 1 PERCENT OF TOTAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE OF 3.3 TRILLION  DOLLARS. FROM PAMELA RACKLIFFE CAPURSO: "I JUST WANT TO KNOW, ARE THOSE 'COLLECTIBLE MUGS' YOU HAND OUT  MADE IN CHINA? IF SO TSK, TSK." THEY ARE INDEED MADE IN CHINA AND I PAY $1.79 FOR EACH ONE  DELIVERED TO MY DOOR. CHINA'S ENORMOUS AND CHEAP LABOR FORCE  GIVES THEM A COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE IN MAKING SIMPLE PRODUCTS  LIKE THIS. FOR ME TO SHIP YOU ONE, HOWEVER COSTS AN ADDITIONAL  28¢ FOR THE BOX AND ABOUT $7.50 FOR SHIPPING IN THE US. MOST OF  MY COST THEN SUPPORTS AMERICAN POSTAL AND DELIVERY WORKERS AT  MUCH HIGHER WAGES. IN ADDITION, BECAUSE SOME CHINESE WORKER  MAKES THIS MUG SHE IS FAR MORE LIKELY TO BE ABLE TO AFFORD SOME  PORK FROM THE US, SO I THINK WE BOTH COME OUT AHEAD. I'LL TALK  SOON IN GREATER DETAIL ABOUT MANUFACTURING JOBS AND WHAT  WINNING REALLY LOOKS LIKE. SPEAKING OF MUGS, I SUPPOSE I SHOULD ANSWER ONE OF THESE  PERSISTENT QUESTIONS: "HOW CAN I GET ONE OF THOSE RED MUGS?" THAT'S FROM FRANK. I FORGET SOME OF YOU ARE NEW VIEWERS SO HERE'S THE RULE: I SEND  MUGS TO PEOPLE WHO SEND ME QUESTIONS I ANSWER ON THE AIR.  ORDINARILY, "HOW CAN I GET A MUG?" WOULD NOT QUALIFY AS SUCH A  QUESTION, BUT I DID READ IT ON THE AIR, SO…OK. HERE'S A HINT FOR  FRANK AND PAMELA, HOWEVER, INCLUDE YOUR FULL NAME AND  ADDRESS WITH YOUR QUESTION FOR OBVIOUS REASONS. FINALLY, DON'T  ASK FOR TWO - HAVE YOUR SPOUSE SEND IN THEIR OWN QUESTION. THANKS FOR PLAYING AT HOME.   THANKS, JOHN. AND REMEMBER, THAT ADDRESS IS  MAILBAG AT U-S FARM REPORT DOT COM.

TEASE
WHEN WE COME BACK, WER'E ON THE ROAD WITH  MACHINERY PETE TO MISSOURI, WHERE PLANTER  PURCHASES ARE SO STRONG, THEY CAN'T EVEN KEEP A  PLANTER ON THE LOT. 

ON THE ROAD WITH MACHINERY PETE
I FOUND THE MACHINERY PETE.  IN 2017, THE STORYLINE FOR USED EQUIPMENT  STARTED TO CHANGE. EQUIPMENT THAT ONCE  FLOODED DEALER LOTS, TURNED INTO A MAJOR PUSH  FOR FARMERS WANTING TO UPGRADE MACHINES.  THIS WEEK WE'RE ON THE ROAD WITH MACHINERY PETE  TO AG POWER IN HIGGINSVILLE MISSOURI. IT'S MORE  THAN JUST TRACTORS DRIVING DEMAND... BUT PLANTER  PURCHASES ARE CREATING SUPRISIVING MOMENTUM IN  THE NEW YEAR. .  IT IS AND IF YOU LOOK AT PLANERS, IT'S BEEN A TOUGH SEGMENT FOR A  COUPLE YEARS, BUT AUCTION PRICING ON LATE MODEL PLANTERS ARE UP  AT THE END OF HTE YEAR AND WE'RE EVEN FINDING DEALERS RUNNING  OUT OF GOOD, USED LATE MODEL PLANTERS.  FLYING HIGH OVER THESE BARREN MISSOURI FIELDS…  IT'S EASY TO SEE WHY AREA FARMERS' GREATEST  CHALLENGE IS OFTEN MOTHER NATURE.  YOU KNOW WE FIGHT FLOODS IT SEEMS LIKE EVERY OTHER  YEAR  THE RIVER CAN BLEED OVER THESE BANKS AS QUICKLY  AS DRYNESS HAS GRASPED THESE FERTILE SOILS.  BUT  WHEN THE WEATHER COOPERATES, THE BUSHELS ARE  BOUNTIFUL.   YIELDS WERE PHENOMENAL. WE HAD RECORD BREAKING YIELDS  ON ALMOST EVERY ENTITY THAT WE WERE HARVESTING LAST FALL SO WE  HAD ACQUIRED I THINK 20 14 WAS THE LAST PREVIOUSLY EXCEPTIONAL  YEAR. THIS WAS MAYBE EVEN 20 TO 30 BUSHEL PER ACRE BETTER THAN  WHAT WE WERE SEEING THOSE PARTICULAR YEARS IN CERTAIN CASES. SO  IT WAS IT WAS ONE OF THOSE YEARS FOR THE FOR THE RECORD BOOKS. > WHILE THE WEATHER MAY BE OUT OF WOODWARD'S  CONTROL. "YOU HAVE TO PLAN FOR THAT" KAISER FAMILY FARMS PLANS FOR THE UNEXPECTED  EACH YEAR… WHILE CONTROLLING WHAT THEY CAN.   <THE ACRES THAT WE FARM ARE BASICALLY CONSOLIDATED INTO  ONE ONE CIRCLE EVERYTHING WE FARM IS WITHIN 10 MILES.   WOODWARD SAYS THEY'RE LOOKING AT POSSIBLY  PURCHASING A NEW PLANTER FOR 2019, AS THEIR BUYS  OF NEW MACHINERY HAVE SLOWED.  WE FOUND OTHER WAYS TO LOOK AT UPGRADING OUR EQUIPMENT  INSTEAD OF PURCHASING NEW. WE'VE LOOKED AT A FEW USED PIECES.  TYPICALLY OUR OPERATION BUYS NEW COMBINES, NEW TRACTORS NEW  PLANTERS.  STRAGGLING PURCHASES OF BOTH NEW AND USED  IRON IS A TREND LOCAL DEALERS LIKE AG POWER HAVE  ADJUSTED TO. BUT IT'S THAT TREND THAT'S STARTING  TO TURN.  YOU KNOW THE USED EQUIPMENT SEEMS TO BE COMING BACK  IN THE LAST FEW YEARS WE HIT THE HIT THE WALL I FELT LIKE. AND WE  STARTED SEEING A HARVEST LAST YEAR OF THE COMEBACK OF USED  EQUIPMENT.  PLATTNER SAYS FARMERS ARE OPTING TO UPDATE  OLDER EQUIPMENT. AND THE PROOF IS IN TRACTOR  VALUES TODAY.   IT SEEMS LIKE THE OLDER SERIES TRACTORS ARE THE OLDER  TRACTORS ARE THE ONES THAT THEIR VALUE IS JUST GOING THROUGH THE  ROOF.  MACHINERY PETE IS SEEING SIMILAR TRENDS, WITH  USED TRACTOR VALUES, WITH ONES IN THE 5 TO 20  YEAR RANGE BOASTING POWERFUL PRICES.  "FEBRUARY 3, THERE WERE PROBABLY 8 THAT CAME IN AUCTION PRICES  THAT WERE THAT 5 TO 20 YEARS OLD AND I WOULD LOOK AT THE PRICE,  AND GO THIS IS THE HIGHEST IN 30 MONTHS, OR 40 MONTHS OR 5  YEARS. SO WE'RE 5 YEARS INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT, SO WERE AT THE  POINT NOW WHERE FOLKS ARE UPDATING AND WHAT THEY'RE LOOKING FOR  IS THE NICEST  USED. " HE SAYS 1 OR 2 YEAR OLD MACHINES ARE ALSO SEEING  STRONG DEMAND.  AND IT'S THAT MOMENTUM THAT CAUGHT PLATTNERY  BY SURPRISE.   I THOUGHT WE WERE STIL MAYBE 12 MONTHS OUT AND THEY'RE  COMING BACK A LITTLE SOONER THAN I THOUGHT. BUT IN THIS AREA OF MISSOURI, PLANTER PURCHASES  ARE EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE, WITH ONLY ONE PLANTER  AVAILABLE ON THIS LOT TODAY.   IN OUR AREA WE RUN 1790 OR 1795 40 FOOT 16 31 RECLINERS.  OUR CUSTOMERS WERE REALLY LEAN ON ONE POINT FOR CORN AND  BEANS. SO ONE MACHINE THEY DON'T HAVE TO INVEST IN EXTRA TIRES OR  ANYTHING ON EVERYTHING ELSE. SO THAT'S OUR NUMBER ONE SELLING  PLANTER IN OUR AREA. THOSE ARE HOT RIGHT NOW.  MACHINERY PETE SAYS THE INTEREST IN PEOPLE  WANTING TO BUY PLANTERS STARTED LTAE LAST YEAR.     "A LOT OF INTEREST IN THE LATE MODEL ONES. WE STARTED TO SEE IN  DECEMEBE,R LATE MODEL PRICES STRONG PARTICULARLY ON 1, 2 AND 3  YEAR OLD MODELS  <YEAH> AND AS FARMERS LIKE WOODWARD PLAN FOR  PLANTING 2018 HE STRIVES TO START OFF ON THE RIGHT FOOT  AT THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR IT ALL STARTS WITH WHAT YOU PUT  INTO THOSE MACHINES.  AND  IT'S ALL ABOUT THE DATA….   WE MAKE SURE WHEN WE START OUT THE YEAR WE'RE PUTTING THE CORRECT DATA IN EVERY SINGLE MACHINE. SO WHEN WE GO TO THE  FIELD WE HAVE THE RIGHT INFORMATION THERE AT THE TIME AND WE CAN  START START OUR PROCESS.  AGPOWER SAYS THEY HAVE  A WIDE CUSTOMER BASE,  FROM FARMERS WELL VERSED IN TECHNOLOGY, LIKE  WOODWARD  WE ARE VERY TECHNOLOGY DRIVEN.  TO ONES JUST STARTING TO LATCH ON.  WERE THERE MAYBE NOT IN THE PRECISION AG MARKET OR THERE  ARE VERY VERY BASIC VERY ELEMENTARY STEPS IN IT AND THEY'RE KIND  OF LOOKING TO SEE HOW CAN THEY DRIVE THAT A LITTLE BIT MORE  BECAUSE THEY'RE A LITTLE BIT CAPPED AT THEIR ACRES MAYBE THEY'RE  OUT THERE REALLY TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW CAN I BE MORE PROFITABLE  ACROSS EVERY ACRE ACROSS THEIR OPERATION.  JASON REICHERT LEADS INTEGRATED SOLUTIONS FOR  THE DEALERSHIP. HE SAYS IT'S PROPER MANAGEMENT  OF THAT DATA THAT CAN REALLY PAY OFF.   THE THING IN THE DATA MANAGEMENT WORLD SAID FOR YEARS IS  BAD DATA IN, BAD DATA OUT. AND SO WE HAVE TO HAVE GOOD  INFORMATION CAPTURED AT THE TIME OF PLANTING AT THE TIME OF  OPERATING AT THE TIME OF HARVEST OR TO BE ABLE TO USE THAT  INFORMATION.  AG POWER HAS EVEN STARTED "DATA DAYS" WHERE  THEY BRING CUSTOMERS IN TO NOT ONLY DIGEST THE  DATA COLLECTED, BUT TAKE A DEEP DIVE INTO WHAT  WENT RIGHT AND WHAT WENT WRONG.   SO WHAT OUR DATA DAY LAST YEAR WHAT WE WHAT WE FOUND  MOST OF IT WAS INEVITABLY GOT PULLED IN THE FIELD AND NAMED THE  FIELD I RIGHT OR HE DIDN'T FORGET TO CHANGE IT WHEN HE WENT TO THE  NEXT ONE. SO A LOT OF IT WAS WAS JUST CORRECTING OPERATOR ERROR.  BUT THAT GOES A LONG WAY.  FOR WOODWARD, IT'S UTILIZING THE DATA AT HAND  THAT HELPS THE FARM PREPARE FOR THE YEAR AHEAD.     WELL IT ALLOWS US TO MAKE BETTER DECISIONS AS WE GO  FORWARD. IT GIVES US THE INFORMATION WE NEED MUCH QUICKER THAN  WHAT WE USED TO EXPERIENCE IN THE PAST.  WHETHER IT BE FOR THE TECHNOLOGY OR BECAUSE A  TRACTOR IS TOO WORN, EQUIPMENT BUYS ARE PICKING  UP.   I SO IF WE CAN GET THROUGH 2018 WITH THESE YIELDS AN OKAY  PRICE, I FEEL LIKE WE'LL BE BACK TO OUR CYCLE.  AND AS PLATTNER PEEKS INTO THE NEW YEAR, HE  LIKES WHAT HE SEES.  WE FEEL LIKE MACHINERY SALES ARE GOING TO KEEP TICKING UP.  I MEAN I DON'T WANT TO SAY THAT WE WERE GOING TO HIT THAT BELL  CURVE AND TAKE OFF BUT I DO FEEL LIKE PLANERS AND SPRAYER SALES  ARE REALLY STRONG RIGHT NOW.BUT WE'RE PRETTY OPTIMISTIC.  OPTIMISM THAT'S TURNING INTO AN UPTICK FOR THE  EQUIPMENT INDUSTRY AS A WHOLE.   I THINK PRODUCERS ARE LOOKING FOR THAT EXTRA EDGE IN OR THEY  CAN GET IN AND IF IT'S BUYING NEW. THAT'S AWESOME. BUT IF IT'S  UPGRADING AND TO USED THEIR LEANING INTO THAT OPPORTUNITY.  WHILE PRICES AND FORECASTS ALTER DAILY,   WOODWARD REMAINS UPBEAT…   I THINK WE'RE AS LONG AS WE CAN GET THE CROP IN THE GROUND  AT A DECENT AMOUNT OF TIME. YOU KNOW MOTHER NATURE HAS TO DO  HER PART. LIKE WE SAID EARLIER BUT I'M OPTIMISTIC AS TO WHERE THIS  IS GOING FOR 2018.  A NEW YEAR, WITH A FRESH START, AS IT'S FARMERS  LIKE WOODWARD THAT KNOW THESE WINDS OF  CHANGE  ARE OFTEN WHAT CREATES OPPORTUNITY 

TEASE
AND NEXT MONTH, MAHCINERY PETE AND I WILL VISIT  JAMES RIVER EQUIPMENT IN VIRGINIA.  WHEN WE COME BACK, WE HAVEA CPSECIAL TRACTOR TALES. I  KNOW YOU'RE EXCTEID ABOUT HTIS ONE. A GUY WITH 6 JOHN DEERE G'S.  YOU DON'T WANT TO MISS THIS FOLKS

TRACTOR TALES
HEY FOLKS WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES WERE IN CONCORDIA  MISSOURI THIS WEEK AND WE'RE VISITING WITH RICHARD COURTIS AND  RICHARD YOU'VE GOT A PRETTY NIFTY JOHN DEERE G HERE WHY DON'T  YOU TELL US ABOUT IT. WELL I'M PRETTY PROUD OF IT. WAS ONE OF THE  TRACTORS THAT WE WENT AHEAD AND SAW CRAIGSLIST. AND HOW DID  YOU COME UP MY WAY TO BUY THIS TRACTER. YES I DID IN MINNESOTA.  YES. RIGHT NORTH OF ST. PAUL MINNESOTA WAS IT ITASCA? ITASCA.  YES RIGHT. GENTLEMEN HAD A TOTAL OF EIGHT. JOHN DEERE GS IN HIS  SHED AND HE WAS DISPERSING THEM BECAUSE HIS WIFE HAD PASSED  AWAY AND HE WAS READILY DONE WITH THIS TRACTOR HERE WAS IN  2017. GOT THE DATE BACK THERE BUT I DON'T KNOW EXACTLY IT WAS. I  WASN'T IN THIS CONDITION WHEN YOU PICKED IT UP OR SOME MORE.  NOW I'VE DONE SOME WORK TO MECHANICALLY STEVE AL-QAIM MY  MECHANIC WENT AHEAD AND WORKED IT OVER BUT IT WAS DIDN'T NEED  MUCH. OK AND WHAT MAKES THIS G SPECIAL TO YOU RICHARD.  BECAUSE IT HAS SORT OF A RARITY TO IT. MOST OF THE TRACTERS BACK  YEARS AGO WERE ALL TRICYCLE TYPE TRACTORS. THIS ONE HAS A WIDE  FRONT END ON IT. AND THERE ARE SORT OF RARE. NOT. EXTREMELY RARE  BUT. IT WAS SOMETHING THAT WE WANTED TO ADD TO THE COLLECTION SO  WE HAD A ONE UNIT OF. EACH ONE THAT THEY MADE. NOW WHEN YOU  SAY COLLECTION HOW MANY GS DO YOU HAVE TOTAL I HAVE SIX GS.  THERE'S A LOT OF TRACTORS THAT ARE NOT PRESERVED ANYMORE. THEY'RE  SITTING OUT THERE IN THE WEATHER AND IN THE FENCE ROWS. MY FEELING  IS THAT IF THESE TRACTORS ARE STARTED AND EXERCISED THAT THEY WILL  LAST ANOTHER 75 YEARS.

TEASE
DON'T GO ANYWHERE, BECAUSE WHEN WE COME BACK,  MACHINERY PETE JOINS ME FOR A COUPLE PHOTOS  THAT ARE THE TALK OF ONE SOUTH DAKOTA TOWN. 

FROM THE FARM
WELCOME BACK. WELL. MACHINERY PETE JOINING ME FOR SOME  FROM THE FARM PHOTOS AND THESE PHOTOS WERE TAKEN SOMEWHERE  IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE COWS APPARENTLY TURNED ON THE PIVOT'S  AND DID SO ON THE WRONG TIME OF YEAR. BUT YOU KNOW IF YOU LEAVE  THE COWS IN ONE SPOT FOR TOO LONG.  THAT CAN HAPPEN. GREG WATSON SAYS WHAT IT TAKES TWO TRACTORS  TO CLEAR A ROAD OR TO YOUR HOUSE YOU MAY JUST BE FROM MONTANA  AND HE SAYS HE'S JUST THANKFUL FOR THE SNOW AND MOISTURE RIGHT  NOW.  YEAH THOSE FOLKS IN MONTANA THEY COULD USE SOME MORE  MOISTURE AND WE TALKED EARLIER IN THE SHOW ABOUT SOME DRYNESS  IN THE PLAINS SPECIFICALLY TEXAS OKLAHOMA AREA. ARE YOU STARTING  TO SEE THAT DRYNESS IMPACT.  TRACTOR PRICES IN ANYWAY. NOT SO MUCH YET. HEARING PEOPLE TALK  ABOUT IT SO I THINK WHERE WE WOULD START TO SEE IT WOULD BE LATE  MARCH INTO THE REST OF THE SPRING WE MIGHT SEE SOME SOFTER  PRICES.

CLOSE
ALL RIGHT GREG THANKS FOR JOINING US. WE APPRECIATE IT. FOR ALL OF  US AT U.S. FARM REPORT THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR WATCHING THIS  SPECIAL EDITION. BE SURE TO JOIN US AT THE STUDIOS NEXT WEEK AS  WE WORK TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND  EVERYONE.  

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