USFR Weekly Recap - February 4-5, 2017

February 4, 2017 03:30 AM
 
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TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
FEBRUARY 4-5, 2017


HEADLINES
WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M TYNE MORGAN,  AND HERE'S WHAT WE'RE WORKING ON FOR YOU OVER  THE NEXT 60 MINUTES... THE NATION'S CATTLE HERD JUST KEEPS GROWING...  WE'LL GET AN UPDATE FROM THE CATTLE INDUSTRY  CONVENTION.  IT'S AN EBAY... BUT FOR CATTLE MARKETS...  <"I BELIEVE IT'S MADE A TREMENDOUS IMPACT ON THE AMOUNT OF  VOLITALITY IN THE MARKETS> OUR FARM JOURNAL REPORT SHOWS HOW THE FED  CATTLE EXCHANGE COULD BE CHANGING THE GAME IN  MARKETING CATTLE. MACINERY PETE CALLS IT THE HOLY GRAIL OF  TRACTORS... IT'S 36 YEARS OLD, WITH LESS THAN 30  HOURS.. AND IT STILL SMELLS NEW.  <BIG STORY SYSTEM MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS WEEK, I'LL HAVE  DETAILS COMING UP IN WEATHER> AND IN JOHN'S WORLD. <RENTING LAND, IS THE SYSTEM FAIR?> <U.S. FARM REPORT - BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE DEPENDABLE, LONG  LASTING, CHEVY SILVERADO.>

BEEF REPORT
NOW FOR THE NEWS THAT MOVED THE MARKETS THIS  WEEK...USDA RELEASING IT'S LATEST CATTLE  INVENTORY NUMBERS CONFIRMING THE NATION'S  HEARD JUST KEEPS GROWING.  AS OF JANUARY FIRST ALL CATTLE AND CALVES  TOTALED 93-POINT-POINT-SIX MILLION HEAD, UP TWO  PERCENT FROM A YEAR AGO. BY STATE - TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA OVERALL  INVENTORIES ARE UP FOUR PERCENT, NEBRASKA IS  UNCHANGED, KANSAS UP TWO PERCENT AND MISSOURI  IS UP SIX PERCENT. THE CALF CROP IS ALSO BIGGER THAN A YEAR AGO.  THE NEW ESTIMATE IS JUST OVER 35 MILLION HEAD, A  THREE PERCENT INCREASE FROM LAST YEAR. OVERALL, HERD EXPANSION WASN'T AS ROBUST AS  SOME EXPERTS EXPECTED.   <"SOME ECONOMISTS EVEN SUGGEST EXPANSION IS OVER. IF IT IS, THAT  MEANS PROFITABILITY AND PRICES COULD TURN AROUND EARLIER THAN  EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THE FORECAST FOR 2017 AND 2018 PROBABLY  REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST 6 MONTHS UNTIL WE GET A BETTER HANDLE  OF WHERE OUR NUMBERS ARE .">  THE NUMBER OF CATTLE PLACE INTO FEEDLOTS IN  DECEMBER WAS 18 PERCENT HIGHER THAN A YEAR  AGO. AND IT WAS HIGHER THAN THE TRADE EXPECTED. CATTLE ON FEED CAME IN EVEN AT 10 POINT 6 MILLION  HEAD. MARKETINGS ROSE 7 PERCENT. USDA ALSO SHOWING IN ITS LAST REPORT, RECORD  BEEF IN COLD STORAGE.   THE LATEST STERLING BEEF PROFIT TRACKER  SHOWING ANOTHER BUMP IN FEEDER MARGINS. INDUSTRY PER HEAD AVERAGES SHOW 245 DOLLARS OF  PROFIT...DRIVEN HIGHER BY FALLING FEED COSTS. THAT'S NOW 10 STRAIGHT WEEKS IN THE BLACK. PACKERS HOWEVER FEELING THE SQUEEZE THIS  WEEK..PACKER MARGINS SHOWING LOSSES OF 8  DOLLARS PER HEAD--THE FIRST WEEK IN THE RED IN  MORE THAN A YEAR.

DOLLAR’S WORST JANUARY
THE U.S. DOLLAR WRAPPING ITS WORST JANUARY IN 30  YEARS. THE CURRENCY INDEX DROPPING MORE THAN 2 AND A  HALF PERCENT--SOMETHING THAT HASN'T HAPPENED  SINCE JANUARY OF 1987.  CONCERNS ABOUT THE NEW ADMINISTRATION'S  COMMITMENT TO A STRONG DOLLAR AND RECENT  TRADE ACTIONS--HELPING PUSH THE INDEX TO FRESH  MULTI-MONTH LOWS.

COTTON FUTURES
COTTON FUTURES CONTINUING TO SEE STRENGTH THIS  WEEK. FRESH DEMAND FROM CHINESE BUYERS HELPING TO  SPARK COTTON'S BEST RALLY IN SIX MONTHS. FRONT MONTH FUTURES CONTRACTS FINDING THEIR  WAY NEAR THE 77 DOLLAR PER HUNDRED MARK. THE LATEST TRADE NUMBERS SHOW CHINESE BUYERS  COMMITTING TO BUYING NEARLY 5 TIMES MORE  AMERICAN COTTON THAN THIS TIME LAST YEAR. THE NATIONAL COTTON COUNCIL IS EXPECTED TO RELEASE IT'S ACREAGE ESTIMATES NEXT WEEKEND.

WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS
THE AG DEPARTMENT UPDATED WINTER WHEAT  CONDITIONS. STARTING IN KANSAS - 44-PERCENT IS GOOD TO  EXCELLENT. UNCHANGED FROM LAST MONTH. THE  ENTIRE STATE HAD MEASURABLE RAINFALL, SO SOIL MOISTURE IS MOSTLY ADEQUATE.  OKLAHOMA 33-PERCENT GOOD TO EXCELLENT,  IMPROVING BY EIGHT POINTS. SOIL MOISTURE IS  DESCRIBED AS "ADEQUATE TO SHORT" TEXAS  - 29-PERCENT GOOD TO EXCELLENT, A DECLINE  OF 12 POINTS FROM EARLY JANUARY. THE STATE IS  NEARLY DROUGHT FREE.

WEATHER
THOSE ARE THE HEADLINES...METEOROLOGIST MIKE  HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH WEATHER... MIKE IT  SOUNDS LIKE THE WEST COAST IS GETTING MORE  MOISTURE? <AGRICULTURE'S NATIONAL FORECAST IS BROUGH TTO  YOU BY CORVUS PRE EMERGENCE CORN HERBICIDE  FROM BAYER. THE ONLY HERBICIDE TO OFFER THREE  LEVELS OF DEFENSE AGAINST WEEDS- BURNDOWN,  RESIDUAL AND REACTION WITH RAIN> THAT 'S RIGHT TYNE THEY'VE HAD SOME AND THEY'RE GETTING MORE THIS  WEEK THAT WOULD JUST CONTINUE TO SHRINK THE DROUGHT MONITOR OVER  THE SOUTHWEST ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WE STILL HAVE SOME  POCKETS FARTHER EAST IS YOU CAN SEE SOME SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST NOW GO BACK A MONTH YOU SEE ALL OF THESE  AREAS WERE ACTUALLY LARGER NORTHEAST SAME IDEA BUT LET 'S WATCH OVER THE PAST FOUR WEEKS  WE'VE SEEN ALL OF THESE DROUGHT AREA SHRINKING ACROSS THE  COUNTRY OF MY BIGGEST CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS EASTERN OKLAHOMA  AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF WE DON'T GET SOME MOISTURE THERE YOUR  HEADING INTO THE GROWING SEASONKIND OF IN THE PARTIAL TROUBLE BUT WILL HOPE TO GET SOME IN THERE  ANYWAY THERE'S THE LOOK AS WE HEAD INTO THIS WEEK ON MONDAY A STORM SYSTEM WEEK ONE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY THIS  IS THE MORE POWERFUL ONE OUT WEST WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS  AND HE CONSIDERS JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND  SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ARE COLD AIR TO THE  NORTH IS KIND  OF HELD UP THERE IS MILDER TEMPERATURES COME AND NOW BY WEDNESDAY THOUGH THE COMBINATION OF THOSE TWO STORMS POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM FOR THE GREAT LIKES LOTS OF SNOW ON THE  WEST SIDE OF IT LOTS OF RAIN COMING UP FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA ALL THE  WAY UP THE EAST COAST IN THE NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN NEW  ENGLAND BEHIND IT MUCH COLDER EVEN FRIGID AIR STARTING TO COME  INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES  STATIONARY FRONT THAT A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN AND SNOW THERE OUT WEST NEXT STORM SYSTEM THEN COMES IN BUT BY FRIDAY AT WEST AND WE  HAVE A WEAK STORM MOVING ALONG THAT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE  SOUTHEAST A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THERE OTHERWISE SUNNY AND FRIGID IN THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST AS WE  ROUND OUT THE WEEK WE'LL CHECK YOUR LONGER RANGE FORECAST  COMING UP ON OUR NEXT HALF HOUR

TEASE
CLIMBING COTTON PRICES COULD BUY ACREAGE. WE'LL  TALK ABOUT AFTER THE BREAK WITH JOHN PAYNE AND  JIM MCCORMICK. SO DON'T GO ANYWEHERE.   <U.S. FARM REPORT REPORT IS POWERED BY RESICORE  HERBICIDE FOR CORN, FROM DOW AGROSCIENCES>

ROUNDTABLE 1
WELCOME BACK TO U S FARM REPORT ON THE ROUND TABLE WITH ME THIS WEEK WE HAVE JOHN PAYNE OF DANIEL'S AG MARKETING AND JIM MCCORMICK OF ALANDALE. OK JOHN TO GET A START IT OFF LET 'S TALK ABOUT THE COTTON MARKET BECAUSE IT 'S BEEN EXCITING AND WE ARE CONTINUING TO SEE THAT THE COTTON MARKET RALLY. IT SEEMS LIKE IT 'S BUYING A CURSED SO WHERE 'S THIS MOMENT SOME COMING FROM?? WELL IT 'S A GOOD QUESTION YOU KNOW WE'VE BEEN LONG AS FAR AS THE SPECULATIVE FUNDS HAVE BEEN PUSHING THING ABOUT THREE MONTHS NOW. WE READ THE TEALEAVES A COUPLE MONTHS AGO THINKING THAT YOU'RE GONNA SEE IT A LOT MORE ACREAGE, WHICH I THINK WE WILL, BUT WE'VE SEEN A CONTINUED DEMAND OFF OF THE LATE HARVEST. I THINK THE THE GINS ARE A LITTLE BIT BACKED UP AND WE'RE SEEING A PROTOTYPICAL SHORT SQUEEZE THIS WEEK WITH A COTTON RALLING  IN THE FRONT MONTH BLOWING OUT THE FRONT MONTH SPREAD MEANING THE OLD CROP REALLY GETTING EXCITED THE BACK MONTHS TESTING WHERE THEY WERE. AND WE SEE THAT REVERSED LAST TWO DAYS. SOME SIGNS OF CAPITULATION OF A DOUBLE TOP TIER OF THE SUMMER HIGHS BUT BUT FOR THE COTTON PRODUCERS, IT IS VERY DIFFICULT BECAUSE THEIR OBVIOUSLY SWITCHING A LOT OF SWITCHING FROM WHEAT, OR IN SOME CASES CORN, OVER THE COTTON MARKETS AND THEY'RE PAYING INVESTING TO DO THAT. DO YOU SIMPLY LOCK IT ALL IN AT THIS POINT GIVE AWAY A LOT UPSIDE FOR THIS THING TO CONTINUE?  THE THAT'S THE DECISION WE HAVE TO MAKE HERE AND IT CAN BE DIFFICULT THIS WAS A TOP EDGE THIS IS A LITTLE BIT OF AN ILLIQUID MARKET AND CAN ACT IRRATIONALLY BECAUSE IT 'S NO WITH ALL OF THE INDIAN THE CHINESE FORCE IS THAT ARE PUSHING THINGS. IT SEEMS LIKE A ITS BUYING ACRES ALWAYS INTERESTING WHEN THE ACREAGE REPORT COMES OUT OF THE KIND OF GET A GLIMPSE OF IT SAID THAT WHAT USDA THINKS IT 'S GOT A GOOD PICTURE COULD BE NEXT YEAR WE MEAN THAT 'S NOT A PRETTY ACREAGE STORY THERE BUT DO YOU THINK THERE 'S A BULLISH STORY AND WE AT THIS POINT?? WE DO THING THERE'S A LITTLE BIT OF A BULLISH STORY COMING UP THAT 'S JUST KIND OF PERCOLATED THIS LAST WEEK. CONFLICT THAT 'S GOING ON IN THE UKRAINE AND RUSSIA. RIGHT NOW THAT 'S BRINGING INTERNATIONAL HEADLINES BACK IN. A FEW YEARS BACK WHEN THE UKRAINE WAS INVADED BY THE RUSSIANS ON THE BORDER, IT CAUSED THE WHEAT MARKET TO RALLY ABOUT A DOLLAR FIFTY. THE FUNDS WHERE SHORT ABOUT SEVENTY FIVE THOUSAND CONTRACTS BACK THEN. THEY'RE SHORT ABOUT THE SAME AMOUNT SIZE RIGHT NOW.  IT HASN'T BLOWN UP YET BUT IF THAT WOULD ESCALATE AND REALLY EXPAND, YOU COULD SEE A LOT OF HEAVY HEAVY DOSE OF SHORT COVERING BY THE FUNDS IS A BLOWOUT LIKE THEY DID JUST A FEW YEARS BACK. IN THE WHEAT MARKET COULD USE THAT RIGHT ALL RIGHT LOOKING TO NEXT WEEK USDA COMING UP WITH THE WITH ANOTHER REPORT THE FEBRUARY REPORT TO ME TYPICALLY WE KNOW THAT 'S TYPICALLY A NON MARKET MOVER BUT DO YOU THINK WE COULD BE HIT WITH ANY SURPRISES NEXT WEEK JOHN?? THE SURPRISE IS DIFFICULT MAYBE THEY WOULD ADJUST THE ARGENTINIAN NUMBERS DOWN A LITTLE BIT MORE THAN THE TRADE WANTS THEM TO.  THIS IS THE ONE THAT WE WILL FOCUS ON FOR ANY SURPRISES. I THINK THE FEED DEMAND AND THAT WOULD BE CHANGED IN THE CORN CERTAINLY BE OFFSET BY MANY LOSSES IN EXPORTS IF YOU'RE GOING TO SHIFTING BUSHELS AROUND FROM ONE OF THE OTHER. I DON'T THINK CARRY OUT WILL ADJUST MUCH IN ANY OF THE MARKETS. SJIM DO YOU THINK WE COULD HAVE A STORY IN CORN AFTER THIS REPORT? AFTER THIS REPORT PROBABLY NOT. LIKE JOHN SAID WE'RE PRETTY MUCH LOOKING FOR THEM MAYBE RAISE THE EXPORTS RAISED THEE UP ALL OF THAT BUT OFFSET THE DROP IN FEED. THE NUMBER OF WE THINK THAT MIGHT START IN THIS MARKET A LITTLE BIT EXCITED AS WE GET A LITTLE LATER IN FEBRUARY WHEN THE OUTLOOK FOR ITS FIRST GUESS FOR ACREAGE. WE'RE GUESSING AT ALLENDALE WE'RE GOING TO LOSE 3 TO FOUR MILLION ACRES OF CORN THIS YEAR. THAT SO WE'RE ANTICIPATING. WE LOSING CORN ACRES AND PICKING UP BEAN ACRES. DO YOU THINK WE'LL HAVE MORE BEAN ACRES THAN CORN? IT'S GOING TO BE CLOSE. YOU MIGHT BE YOU'RE RIGHT THERE ABOUT EIGHTY NINE NINETY TIED BOTH. SO I IT COULD BE THE FIRST TIME EVER A TIME WHAT TYPE OF A GREAT NUMBER JOHN DO WE NEED TO MOVE THE CORN PRICE HIGHER? IN WHAT TYPE OF PRODUCTION WE NEED TO SEE IN HIS CORN ACRES?? WHILE JIM'S RIGHT I THINK WE'LL SEE THE CORN SUBSTANTIALLY MOVE CONSIDERING WHAT THE RATIOS ARE RIGHT NOW. BEANS WE'RE AT ABOUT TWO FIVE AND THAT 'S A RECORD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. I'M NOT AS BULLISH ON  THE CORN ACREAGE NUMBER JUST GIVEN THE FACT THAT FARMERS LOVE TO PLANT IT. I KNOW THE BANKERS ARE CONSTRICTING ON THINGS A LITTLE BIT. BUT I THINK OVER THE LONG RUN, THIS THING 'S A YIELD STORY, IT'S A PRODUCTION STORY.  IF THE HOPS GONNA COME, IT'S GONNA COME PROBABLY MID SUMMER LATE LATE SPRING WHEN WE HAVE A PRODUCTION PROBLEM AND THE U S.  SO I MEAN A BIG MARKET MOVE EITHER WAY YOU SAID WE COULD GET FROM USDA 'S AG OUTLOOK FORUM. WHAT ABOUT THE SECRET REPORT THAT WE GET FROM USDA AT THE END OF MARCH. TO THINK THAT COULD BE A BIG MARKET MOVER IN ITS OWN JIM WHICH WAY??  WELL THAT WAS OUR QUESTION. THE MARCH REPORT TENDS TO BE ONE OF THE BIGGEST REPORTS OUT THERE. BECAUSE YOU'RE GETTING THE ACREAGE, YOU'RE GETTING QUARTERLY GRAIN STOCKS REPORT, UM IF I GOTTA GET MY GUESS IS IT DEPENDS ON WHERE THEY COME OF THE ACRES. I THINK THE TRADE'S GONNA GO INTO THE REPORT ANTICIPATING LESS CORN ACRES AND MORE BEAN ACRES.  THE PIVOT OFF OF THAT'LL BE HOW MANY MORE HOW ACURATE THE TRADE IS. BECAUSE LATELY IT SEEMS LIKE SOMETIMES THE TRADE HASN'T HAD A GOOD HANDLE OF WHAT THE USDA HAS TO SAY. OUR GUESS ONCE WE GET THIS CROP PLANTED, WE WILL GO DOWN. WE THINKING THAT WE WILL GET A PRETTY GOOD SPRING BREAK NO MATTER WHAT THE ACRES ARE. AT LEAST TEMPORARILY WE'RE OFF TO A GOOD PLANTING PACE. WE'VE GOT A BIG ENOUGH CORN ACREAGE CARRY IN THAT COULD OFFSET A COUPLE MILLION ACREAGE LOST WITHOUT A PROBLEM. SO YOU THINK GROWERS RIGHT NOW SHOULD BE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF THE PRICES IN BOTH SOY BEANS AND CORN OR JUST SOYBEANS?? WE'RE A LITTLE BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE TELLING PEOPLE TO SELL BEANS. WE JUST FINISHED OUR ANNUAL AG LEADERS CONFERENCE. WE PRETTY MUCH CAME OUT SAYING YOU NEED TO BE SELLING BEANS, OLD CROP AND NEW RIGHT NOW. CORN, WE'RE A LITTLE BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC ON. WERE HOPING WE GET CLOSER ABOUT FOUR FOR TWENTY LEVEL ON THE NEW CROP CLOSE TO FOUR ON THE OLD CROP.  WE'RE RIGHT IS IN REALLY CRITICAL TECHNICAL RESISTANCE THAT WE HAVE BEEN THIS TIME A SIDEWAYS RANGE FOR THE LAST SIX MONTHS IN THE WEEK STRONG GIVE US ENOUGH TO GIVE US A POP TOUR IF WE'RE GOING TO DO IT, WE NEED TO DO IT SOON. IF YOU GET IT YOU GET TWENTY THIRTY CENTS YOU NEED SOMEONE TO WHAT ALL I KNEW ABOUT. OUR OWN WE NEED TO TAKE A BREAK BUT WHEN WE COME BACK WE'LL SEE OF JOHN AGREES WITH ALL OF THAT OF THIS THE PRICES TODAY IF YOU SHOULD BE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF THAT AS SOYBEANS OR IF HE THINKS MAYBE THERE SOME MORE UPSIDE POTENTIAL TO COME STAY WITH US

ROUNDTABLE 2
WELCOME BACK TO U S FARM REPORT ON THE ROUND TABLE WITH ME THIS WEEK WE HAVE JOHN PAYNE OF DANIEL'S AG MARKETING AND JIM MCCORMICK OF ALANDALE. OK JOHN TO GET A START IT OFF LET 'S TALK ABOUT THE COTTON MARKET BECAUSE IT 'S BEEN EXCITING AND WE ARE CONTINUING TO SEE THAT THE COTTON MARKET RALLY. IT SEEMS LIKE IT 'S BUYING A CURSED SO WHERE 'S THIS MOMENT SOME COMING FROM?? WELL IT 'S A GOOD QUESTION YOU KNOW WE'VE BEEN LONG AS FAR AS THE SPECULATIVE FUNDS HAVE BEEN PUSHING THING ABOUT THREE MONTHS NOW. WE READ THE TEALEAVES A COUPLE MONTHS AGO THINKING THAT YOU'RE GONNA SEE IT A LOT MORE ACREAGE, WHICH I THINK WE WILL, BUT WE'VE SEEN A CONTINUED DEMAND OFF OF THE LATE HARVEST. I THINK THE THE GINS ARE A LITTLE BIT BACKED UP AND WE'RE SEEING A PROTOTYPICAL SHORT SQUEEZE THIS WEEK WITH A COTTON RALLING  IN THE FRONT MONTH BLOWING OUT THE FRONT MONTH SPREAD MEANING THE OLD CROP REALLY GETTING EXCITED THE BACK MONTHS TESTING WHERE THEY WERE. AND WE SEE THAT REVERSED LAST TWO DAYS. SOME SIGNS OF CAPITULATION OF A DOUBLE TOP TIER OF THE SUMMER HIGHS BUT BUT FOR THE COTTON PRODUCERS, IT IS VERY DIFFICULT BECAUSE THEIR OBVIOUSLY SWITCHING A LOT OF SWITCHING FROM WHEAT, OR IN SOME CASES CORN, OVER THE COTTON MARKETS AND THEY'RE PAYING INVESTING TO DO THAT. DO YOU SIMPLY LOCK IT ALL IN AT THIS POINT GIVE AWAY A LOT UPSIDE FOR THIS THING TO CONTINUE?  THE THAT'S THE DECISION WE HAVE TO MAKE HERE AND IT CAN BE DIFFICULT THIS WAS A TOP EDGE THIS IS A LITTLE BIT OF AN ILLIQUID MARKET AND CAN ACT IRRATIONALLY BECAUSE IT 'S NO WITH ALL OF THE INDIAN THE CHINESE FORCE IS THAT ARE PUSHING THINGS. IT SEEMS LIKE A ITS BUYING ACRES ALWAYS INTERESTING WHEN THE ACREAGE REPORT COMES OUT OF THE KIND OF GET A GLIMPSE OF IT SAID THAT WHAT USDA THINKS IT 'S GOT A GOOD PICTURE COULD BE NEXT YEAR WE MEAN THAT 'S NOT A PRETTY ACREAGE STORY THERE BUT DO YOU THINK THERE 'S A BULLISH STORY AND WE AT THIS POINT?? WE DO THING THERE'S A LITTLE BIT OF A BULLISH STORY COMING UP THAT 'S JUST KIND OF PERCOLATED THIS LAST WEEK. CONFLICT THAT 'S GOING ON IN THE UKRAINE AND RUSSIA. RIGHT NOW THAT 'S BRINGING INTERNATIONAL HEADLINES BACK IN. A FEW YEARS BACK WHEN THE UKRAINE WAS INVADED BY THE RUSSIANS ON THE BORDER, IT CAUSED THE WHEAT MARKET TO RALLY ABOUT A DOLLAR FIFTY. THE FUNDS WHERE SHORT ABOUT SEVENTY FIVE THOUSAND CONTRACTS BACK THEN. THEY'RE SHORT ABOUT THE SAME AMOUNT SIZE RIGHT NOW.  IT HASN'T BLOWN UP YET BUT IF THAT WOULD ESCALATE AND REALLY EXPAND, YOU COULD SEE A LOT OF HEAVY HEAVY DOSE OF SHORT COVERING BY THE FUNDS IS A BLOWOUT LIKE THEY DID JUST A FEW YEARS BACK. IN THE WHEAT MARKET COULD USE THAT RIGHT ALL RIGHT LOOKING TO NEXT WEEK USDA COMING UP WITH THE WITH ANOTHER REPORT THE FEBRUARY REPORT TO ME TYPICALLY WE KNOW THAT 'S TYPICALLY A NON MARKET MOVER BUT DO YOU THINK WE COULD BE HIT WITH ANY SURPRISES NEXT WEEK JOHN?? THE SURPRISE IS DIFFICULT MAYBE THEY WOULD ADJUST THE ARGENTINIAN NUMBERS DOWN A LITTLE BIT MORE THAN THE TRADE WANTS THEM TO.  THIS IS THE ONE THAT WE WILL FOCUS ON FOR ANY SURPRISES. I THINK THE FEED DEMAND AND THAT WOULD BE CHANGED IN THE CORN CERTAINLY BE OFFSET BY MANY LOSSES IN EXPORTS IF YOU'RE GOING TO SHIFTING BUSHELS AROUND FROM ONE OF THE OTHER. I DON'T THINK CARRY OUT WILL ADJUST MUCH IN ANY OF THE MARKETS. SJIM DO YOU THINK WE COULD HAVE A STORY IN CORN AFTER THIS REPORT? AFTER THIS REPORT PROBABLY NOT. LIKE JOHN SAID WE'RE PRETTY MUCH LOOKING FOR THEM MAYBE RAISE THE EXPORTS RAISED THEE UP ALL OF THAT BUT OFFSET THE DROP IN FEED. THE NUMBER OF WE THINK THAT MIGHT START IN THIS MARKET A LITTLE BIT EXCITED AS WE GET A LITTLE LATER IN FEBRUARY WHEN THE OUTLOOK FOR ITS FIRST GUESS FOR ACREAGE. WE'RE GUESSING AT ALLENDALE WE'RE GOING TO LOSE 3 TO FOUR MILLION ACRES OF CORN THIS YEAR. THAT SO WE'RE ANTICIPATING. WE LOSING CORN ACRES AND PICKING UP BEAN ACRES. DO YOU THINK WE'LL HAVE MORE BEAN ACRES THAN CORN? IT'S GOING TO BE CLOSE. YOU MIGHT BE YOU'RE RIGHT THERE ABOUT EIGHTY NINE NINETY TIED BOTH. SO I IT COULD BE THE FIRST TIME EVER A TIME WHAT TYPE OF A GREAT NUMBER JOHN DO WE NEED TO MOVE THE CORN PRICE HIGHER? IN WHAT TYPE OF PRODUCTION WE NEED TO SEE IN HIS CORN ACRES?? WHILE JIM'S RIGHT I THINK WE'LL SEE THE CORN SUBSTANTIALLY MOVE CONSIDERING WHAT THE RATIOS ARE RIGHT NOW. BEANS WE'RE AT ABOUT TWO FIVE AND THAT 'S A RECORD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. I'M NOT AS BULLISH ON  THE CORN ACREAGE NUMBER JUST GIVEN THE FACT THAT FARMERS LOVE TO PLANT IT. I KNOW THE BANKERS ARE CONSTRICTING ON THINGS A LITTLE BIT. BUT I THINK OVER THE LONG RUN, THIS THING 'S A YIELD STORY, IT'S A PRODUCTION STORY.  IF THE HOPS GONNA COME, IT'S GONNA COME PROBABLY MID SUMMER LATE LATE SPRING WHEN WE HAVE A PRODUCTION PROBLEM AND THE U S.  SO I MEAN A BIG MARKET MOVE EITHER WAY YOU SAID WE COULD GET FROM USDA 'S AG OUTLOOK FORUM. WHAT ABOUT THE SECRET REPORT THAT WE GET FROM USDA AT THE END OF MARCH. TO THINK THAT COULD BE A BIG MARKET MOVER IN ITS OWN JIM WHICH WAY??  WELL THAT WAS OUR QUESTION. THE MARCH REPORT TENDS TO BE ONE OF THE BIGGEST REPORTS OUT THERE. BECAUSE YOU'RE GETTING THE ACREAGE, YOU'RE GETTING QUARTERLY GRAIN STOCKS REPORT, UM IF I GOTTA GET MY GUESS IS IT DEPENDS ON WHERE THEY COME OF THE ACRES. I THINK THE TRADE'S GONNA GO INTO THE REPORT ANTICIPATING LESS CORN ACRES AND MORE BEAN ACRES.  THE PIVOT OFF OF THAT'LL BE HOW MANY MORE HOW ACURATE THE TRADE IS. BECAUSE LATELY IT SEEMS LIKE SOMETIMES THE TRADE HASN'T HAD A GOOD HANDLE OF WHAT THE USDA HAS TO SAY. OUR GUESS ONCE WE GET THIS CROP PLANTED, WE WILL GO DOWN. WE THINKING THAT WE WILL GET A PRETTY GOOD SPRING BREAK NO MATTER WHAT THE ACRES ARE. AT LEAST TEMPORARILY WE'RE OFF TO A GOOD PLANTING PACE. WE'VE GOT A BIG ENOUGH CORN ACREAGE CARRY IN THAT COULD OFFSET A COUPLE MILLION ACREAGE LOST WITHOUT A PROBLEM. SO YOU THINK GROWERS RIGHT NOW SHOULD BE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF THE PRICES IN BOTH SOY BEANS AND CORN OR JUST SOYBEANS?? WE'RE A LITTLE BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE TELLING PEOPLE TO SELL BEANS. WE JUST FINISHED OUR ANNUAL AG LEADERS CONFERENCE. WE PRETTY MUCH CAME OUT SAYING YOU NEED TO BE SELLING BEANS, OLD CROP AND NEW RIGHT NOW. CORN, WE'RE A LITTLE BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC ON. WERE HOPING WE GET CLOSER ABOUT FOUR FOR TWENTY LEVEL ON THE NEW CROP CLOSE TO FOUR ON THE OLD CROP.  WE'RE RIGHT IS IN REALLY CRITICAL TECHNICAL RESISTANCE THAT WE HAVE BEEN THIS TIME A SIDEWAYS RANGE FOR THE LAST SIX MONTHS IN THE WEEK STRONG GIVE US ENOUGH TO GIVE US A POP TOUR IF WE'RE GOING TO DO IT, WE NEED TO DO IT SOON. IF YOU GET IT YOU GET TWENTY THIRTY CENTS YOU NEED SOMEONE TO WHAT ALL I KNEW ABOUT. OUR OWN WE NEED TO TAKE A BREAK BUT WHEN WE COME BACK WE'LL SEE OF JOHN AGREES WITH ALL OF THAT OF THIS THE PRICES TODAY IF YOU SHOULD BE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF THAT AS SOYBEANS OR IF HE THINKS MAYBE THERE SOME MORE UPSIDE POTENTIAL TO COME STAY WITH US

MARKETS NOW
AD LIB

JOHN’S WORLD
WE'VE HEARD THAT 10 PERCENT OF FARMLAND IS  EXPECTED TO CHANGE HANDS IN THE COMING YEARS,  BUT IS THE SYSTEM OF RENTING LAND FAIR? THAT'S  THIS WEEK'S JOHN'S WORLD.  I WAS ASKED RECENTLY BY A YOUNG FARMER HOW HE COULD GROW HIS  FARM. HE EXPLAINED HIS YIELDS WERE ABOVE AVERAGE, HE GETS  FIELDWORK DONE CORRECTLY AND ON TIME, AND HIS FINANCES WERE  SOUND, BUT LANDOWNERS SEEM TO PASS HIM OVER FOR OLDER FARMERS.  I THINK HE WAS IMPLYING AS WELL THAT THOSE OLDER FARMERS DIDN'T  REALLY NEED THE GROUND SINCE THEY WERE ALREADY SUCCESSFUL. HE  WAS NOT WHINING, BUT HE CONCLUDED BY SAYING HE DIDN'T THINK THE SYSTEM WAS FAIR. HE WAS REPEATING IN HIS OWN WORDS THE COMPLAINTS OF A THIRTY- SOMETHING YEAR OLD FARMER WHO LIVES AT MY ADDRESS. AND NOW  THAT I'VE AGED INTO THE OLDER CATEGORY IT WOULD BE EASY TO SAY IT IS  TOO FAIR. BUT MY VIEW IS THERE ISN'T A SYSTEM AT ALL. WHAT LOOKS  LIKE SYSTEMATIC BIAS AGAINST YOUNGER FARMERS WANTING TO RENT  GROUND IS IN TRUTH PREDICTABLE HUMAN BEHAVIOR. RENTING GROUND IS  AN ACT OF TRUST ON THE PART OF LANDOWNERS. IT'S LIKE PLACING YOUR  MONEY WITH A FINANCIAL ADVISOR. IF YOU HAVE A LONGSTANDING FRIEND  IN THE FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT PROFESSION, IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT  FRIENDSHIP WILL LEAD YOU TO CHOOSE THEM TO TAKE CARE OF YOUR  WEALTH. FARMLAND IS NOT JUST OWNED LARGELY BY OLDER PEOPLE,  MUCH OF THE LAND IS ACQUIRED LATER IN LIFE AS AN INHERITANCE. THUS,  ONE BIG REASON 30-SOMETHINGS DON'T RENT MORE LAND IS THEY DON'T  HAVE THIRTY-SOMETHING FRIENDS WHO OWN LAND. TO BE SURE, THE  SHIFT TO CASH RENT HAS DIMINISHED THIS EFFECT, BUT EVEN THE CHANCE  TO BID ON LAND CAN DEPEND ON YOUR RELATIONSHIP WITH THE OWNER. I GOT THE CHANCE TO RENT SOME LAND ONLY AFTER PEOPLE I WENT TO HIGH  SCHOOL WITH INHERITED IT. MOST FARMERS HAVE SIMILAR STORIES. ONE  RULE I ALWAYS KEEP IN MIND IS THAT LANDOWNERS CHOOSE WHO WILL  FARM, NOT FARMERS. AND WHILE IT MAY APPEAR UNFAIR, IT TURNS OUT  THAT THE OLDER FARMERS WHO ARE RENTING ACRES ARE BETTER SEEN AS  YOUNG FARMERS WHO AGED WHILE WAITING IN LINE FOR THIRTY YEARS. THANKS, JOHN.

TEASE
AS CATTLE PRODUCERS STRUGGLE TO SURVIVE THE  VOLATILITY OF CATTLE MARKETS, THE INDUSTRY IS  TURNING TO ONLINE TO PATCH THE PROBLEM. THAT'S  OUR FARM JOURNAL REPORT AFTER THE BREAK. 

HEADLINES
WELCOME BACK TO U-S FARM REPORT. WE HAVE MUCH  MORE AHEAD. IT'S AN ONLINE AUCTION TRYING TO ERASE THE  VOLATILITY IN THE CATTLE MARKET.  WE HEAD OUT WEST WHERE BAXTER BLACK LOOKS ON  TE BRIGHT SIDE OF THINGS.  AND IN CUSTOMER SUPPORT, IT'S AN AMAZON  EVOLUTION, CHANGING THE WAY FARMERS DO  BUSINESS. 

GORSUCH IN WASHINGTON
NOW FOR THE HEADLINES... A BUSY WEEK IN  WASHINGTON INCLUDING FRESH CONFIRMATIONS AND  NEW NOMINATIONS. PRESIDENT NAMING NEIL GORSUCH AS HIS PICK TO FILL  THE VACANT SUPREME COURT SEAT.  HE SPENT PART OF HIS WEEK MAKING THE ROUNDS ON CAPITOL  HILL, MEETING WITH SENATE LEADERS.   GORSUCH IS AN OUTDOORSMAN, WHO ENJOYS FLY- FISHING IN THE STREAMS OF COLORADO.  COINCIDENTALLY, WATERS OF THE U-S COULD BE ONE  OF THE FIRST ISSUES GORSUCH WOULD ADDRESS, IF  HE IS CONFIRMED BY THE SENATE. :14 THE FACT THAT HE DOES COME FROM THE WESTERN  UNITED STATES BODES WELL BECAUSE WHEN YOU  LOOK AT THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE RULES  AND REGULATIONS ON OUR MEMBERS WHO RUN ON  PERMITS ON FEDERAL LANDS. HAVING SOMEBODY WHO  UNDERSTANDS THAT WOULD BE HELPFUL.  :28

SMALL BUSINESS EXECUTIVE ORDER
ALSO THIS WEEK, PRESIDENT TRUMP SIGNING AN  EXECUTIVE ORDER AIMED AT SMALL BUSINESSES. THE ORDER SAYS FOR EVERY NEW REGULATION  ENACTED, TWO MUST BE ELIMINATED. AND PART OF THE EVALUATION WILL BE BASED ON  COSTS--THE COST TO IMPLEMENT A RULE AND  THE  COST TO ENFORCE IT. RESEARCH FROM THE NATIONAL FEDERATION OF INDEPENDENT  BUSINESS SAYS BUSINESS OWNERS HAVE LISTED  REGULATIONS AS A TOP THREE CONCERN FOR 96 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS. RISING COSTS FROM INCREASED REGULATIONS AND  COMPLIANCE IS HURTING SMALL RURAL BANKS.  LENDER, FARMER MAC, GIVING US AN EARLY EXCLUSIVE OF THE RESULTS OF A RECENT STUDY ON THE HEALTH  OF THE FARM ECONOMY.  THE LENDOR SAYS MORE THAN 10 THOUSAND  COMMUNITY BANKS HAVE EXITED SINCE 1984... LARGELY  DUE TO FAILURE, MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS. FARMERMAC WILL RELEASE THE FULL WINTER EDITION  OF THE FEED ON MONDAY.

DES MOINES WATER WORKS
THE IOWA SUPREME COURT IS SIDING WITH THREE  RURAL COUNTIES IN A LAWSUIT OVER ALLEGED FARM  RUN-OFF. THE DES MOINES WATER WORKS SUED COUNTY  SUPERVISORS AND DRAINAGE DISTRICTS IN THREE  COUNTIES UP-STREAM OF IOWA'S BIGGEST CITY.  THE UTILITY CLAIMS NITRATES FLOWING INTO TWO  RIVERS THAT SUPPLY WATER TO DES MOINES ARE  FROM FARM TILE. THE COURTS SIDED WITH THE WATER DISTRICTS.  THE DECISION COULD HAVE OPENED THE DOOR FOR LAWSUITS AGAINST THREE THOUSAND DRAINAGE  DISTRICTS NATIONWIDE.

DROUGHT MONITOR
AFTER A LONG STRETCH OF HEAVY SNOW AND WINTER  RAINS, CALILFORNIA'S IMPORTANT SNOWPACK IS  SHOWING HUGE ONE-MONTH GAINS. AND DROUGHT HAS  ALL BUT DISAPPEARED. AT ONE SITE NEAR LAKE TAHOE, THE SNOW-WATER  EQUIVALENCE MEASURED AT 28 INCHES. IN JANUARY,  JUST SIX INCHES WAS FOUND THERE. SINCE 1964, THAT SPOT HAS AVERAGE ABOUT ELEVEN  INCHES. STATEWIDE THE SNOWPACK HOLDS 31 INCHES OF  WATER, THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS 40-PERCENT  OF THE STATE IS DROUGHT-FREE. AND JUST TWO  PERCENT IS IN EXTREME DROUGHT.

DAIRY REVENUE INSURANCE
AG COMMITTEE LEADERS IN BOTH THE HOUSE AND  SENATE ARE ALREADY PREPARING FOR WORK ON A  NEW FARM BILL. MEANWHILE, FARM BUREAU, FARM BUREAU INSURANCE  AND FOLKS FROM ACADEMIA ARE WRITING A NEW TYPE  OF DAIRY REVENUE INSURANCE. THE PLAN OFFERS REGIONAL PROTECTION AGAINST  BOTH MILK PRICE AND PRODUCTION DECLINES. IT'S BEING CALLED DAIRY REVENUE PROTECTION OR DAIRY - R-P. UNLIKE THE CURRENT MARGIN PROTECTION PROGRAM,  IT FOCUSES ON PROTECTING REVENUE...SIMILAR TO  CROP INSURANCE. <THERE ARE SOME ISSUES RELATED TO WHERE YOU WANT TO DAIRY IN TEH  UNITED STATES. A LOT OF DAIRIES PURCHASE ALL THEIR FEED OTHERS GROW A FAIR PORPORTION OF THEIR FEED, WHEN YOU HAVE A PROGRAM THAT  OPERATES PURELY OFF OF FEED PRICFES AND NOT OFF THE COST OF  PRODUCING THAT FEED, IN SOEM CASES IT MAY NOT BE A VERY GOOD  SAFETY NET FOR THOSE PRODUCERS THA TPRODUCE THEIR OWN FEED. SO  BEING ABLE TO BE MORE FLEXIBILITY DEPENDING ON WHERE YOUA RE IN  THE COUNTRY. I WOLL SAY FLEXIBILITY CREATES COMPLEXITY AND  SOMETIMES PRODUCERS DON'T LIKE THAT COMPLEXITY EVEN THOUGH IT  OFFERS MORE FELEXIBILITY> THE DAIRY- R-P INSURANCE CONTRACTS WOULD BE  QUARTERLY AND COULD BE BOUGHT UP TO 15 MONTHS  OUTS. THE CONCEPT IS HEADED FOR THE USDA'S RISK  MANAGEMENT AGENCY LATER THIS SPRING.

MASCHHOFFS UNDER INVESTIGATION
SPEAKING OF PORK, HORMEL FOODS STOPPING THE  FLOW OF HOGS FROM AN OKLAHOMA SUPPLIER SEEN IN  A NEWLY RELEASED ANIMAL RIGHTS VIDEO. THE FACILITY BELONGS TO THE MASCHHOFFS--ONE OF  THE LARGEST PRODUCERS IN THE U.S. THE MASCHHOFFS SAY THEY'RE INVESTIGATING AND  THEY DO NOT TOLERATE ANIMAL ABUSE. THEY PLAN TO RETRAIN ALL OF THEIR EMPLOYEES AT  THAT SITE.

WEATHER
THAT'S IT FOR NEWS...METEOROLOGIST MIKE  HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH THE NATIONAL  FORECAST. THANKS TYNE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE LAST PART OF THIS WEEKEND WE ARE LOOKING AT A FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER WHEN YOU HAVE A ZONA;L; FLOW ACROSS A COUNTRY THAT 'S THE CASE BUT WE DO HAVE A STORM SYSTEM COMING OUT WES,  A COUPLE OF THEM AS A MATTER OF FACT IN THAT WILL CHANGE THINGS THROUGH WHAT 'S A JET STREAM A BIG DIP IN THE JET STREAM THERE PRETTY STRONG STORM FOR THE GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THAT WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST QUICK SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND IT AND THAT IS KIND OF A BATTLE IS WE HAD IN THE NEXT WEEK AND STILL SOME COLD AIR THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES BUT THE WARM AIR COMES BACK FOR THE SOUTH THERE 'S ARTHUR OF MY THIRTY DAY OUTLOOK FOR TEMPERATIES, I'M GOING BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PLAINS GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD ABOVE NORMAL FOR FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN TEXAS MOST OF THE SOUTHWEST PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT THIRTY DAYS OHIO VALLEY GREAT LAKES NORTHEAST NORTHWEST I'M GOING ABOVE NORMAL CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA LOUISIANA BACK THROUGH THE FOUR CORNER REGION EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL TYNE

FARM JOURNAL REPORT
THANKS MIKE.   IT WAS GOOD WEATHER FOR THIS YEAR'S CATTLE  INDUSTRY CONVENTION AND NCBA TRADESHOW IN NASHIVILLE TENNESEE. TRADE AND WASHINGTON POLICY A MAJOR POINT OF  EMPHASIS AS A NEW ADMINISTRATION TAKES THE  REINS. INDUSTRY FOLLOWERS SAY--LIKE IT HAS THE LAST  COUPLE OF YEARS-- MUCH OF THE TALK CENTERED  AROUND PRICES. THANKS, MIKE.  VOLITALE CATTLE MARKETS PARALYZING THE INDUSTRY  THE PAST YEAR.   OFFICIALS TRYING TO FIX THE SSIE BY SHORTENING TRADING HOURS EVEN LOOKING AT HIGH FREQUENCY  TRADING. BUT ONE GROUP OF OPERATORS DECIDED TO TO TAKE  A DIFFERENT ROUTE, OPENING A CASH MARKET WITH A  LIVE ONLINE AUCTION. WITH THE HELP OF OUR FRIENDS AT OKLAHOMA STATE,  BETSY JIBBEN REPORTS SHOWS US HOW THE FED  CATTLE EXCHANGE COULD BE A GAME CHANGER FOR  CATTLE PRODUCERS FROM ALL ACROSS THE COUNTRY.  THE DAYS OF RECORD HIGH CATTLE PRICES SEEN  FROM 2013 TO 2015 ARE NOW MORE LIKE MEMORIES TO  PRODUCRES.. BUT THE IMPACTS OF THE VOLATILITY STILL STING.  <"I THINK PEOPLE ARE A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC BUT I HTINK WE'RE ALSO  CAUTIOUS BECUASE WE GOT BURNT SO BAD WITH THE PRICE DROP,"> DURING THAT TIME, A GROUP OF PRODUCERS WITH THE  HELP OF SUPERIOR LIVESTOCK AUCTION DECIDED TO  TAKE CHARGE OF THE PROBLEM BY ESTABLISHING A  REALISTIC BASE PRICE FOR THE MARKET. THEIR IDEA...  THE FED CATTLE EXCHANGE.  <"WITH ADDITIONAL NEGOTIATED TRADE ON A TRANSPARENT PLATFORM LIKE  FED CATTLE EXCHANGE, WE CAN HELP ELIMINATE SOME OF THE VOLITALITY  THAT WE'RE SEEING IN OUR MARKET BOTH ON THE CASH SIDE AND  FUTURES SIDE TO ALLOW US TO BE MORE EFFECTIVE PRODUCERS AND MORE  EFFECTIVE RISK MANAGERS,"> IT'S AN ONLINE AUCTION- SIMILIAR TO AN E-BAY FOR  CATTLE. FOR ONE-DOLLAR PER HEAD, PRODUCERS CAN  SET A FLOOR PRICE AND ARE NOT FORCED TO SELL IF  THE PRICE IS NOT MET. BIDS COME FROM PACKERS IN  25 CENT INCREMENTS.  <"THE NEAT THING ABOUT THE PLATFORM IS THAT YOU CAN DO IT ONLINE OR  FROM YOUR MOBILE DEVICE. SO, IF HTE FEEDYARD MANAGER IS THERE,  HE CAN TAKE 3 PHOTOS, FILL IN THE REVELENT INFORMAITON AS IT RELATES  TO THE LIVESTOCK, POST IT ON THE WEBSITE BEFORE 12 ON MONDAY FOR  A SALE THAT WILL COMMENSE ON 10 AM ON WEDNESDAYS,"> THE TRANSACTIONS TAKE PLACE ON A COMPUTER  SCREEN, IN REAL TIME. SOMETHING THAT WASN'T  POSSIBLE EVEN A FEW YEARS AGO.  <"IT'S ABOUT KNOWING WHERE THE CASH MARKET IS AT ALL TIMES AND  THAT YOU CAN HELP YOU MAKE A LOT OF DECISIONS ON YOUR OWN NO  MATTER WHAT PART OF THE INDUSTRY YOU'RE IN,"> THE FED CATTLE EXCHANGE REALLY TOOK OFF WHEN  USDA INCLUDED SALE RESULTS IN THE LIVESTOCK  MANDATORY REPORTING PROGRAM IN OCTOBER.  ****NOW THE AVERAGE SALE VOLUME IS ROUGHLY 65- HUNDRED TO 7 THOUSAND HEAD EACH AUCTION.  MULTIPLE STATES ARE ACTIVELY PARTICIPATING SO  ARE THE MAJOR PACKERS AND SOME REGIONAL ONES  ARE TOO. PACKERS CAN VISIT THE CATTLE  BEFOREHAND SINCE PRODUCERS MAY POST SEVERAL  DAYS AHEAD OF THE AUCTION. <"THE SMALLER GUYS BENEFIT AS WELL. THERE ARE GUYS IN THE NORTH  LIKE IN SOUTH DAKOTA THAT ARE FARMER-FEEDERS THAT HAVE REALLY  GOOD CATTLE. A LOT CAN BE HOMERAISED. CATTLE THAT ARE AS HIGH QUALITY AS ANY IN THE COUNTRY. THESE GUYS BENEFIT FROM THE BUYER  EXPOSURE THEY WOULDN'T NORMALLY GET."> <"THAT'S WHAT THE FCE IS TRYING TO DO - DEFINE THE VALUE FOR  DIFFERENT CLASSES OF CATTLE IN DIFFERENT REGIONS DURING DIFFERENT  MARKETING FUNDAMENTALS."> EVEN THOUGH THE FED CATTEL EXCHANGE IS ONLY A  FRACTION OF THE U.S. CATTLE VOLUME- BOTH BELIEVE  IT'S CREATED A MORE LEVEL PLAYING FIELD.  <"I BELIEVE IT'S MADE A TREMENDOUS IMPACT ON THE AMOUNT OF  VOLITALITY IN THE MARKETS, AS FAR AS CREATING MORE DATA POINTS FOR  THE INDUSTRY TO TRADE THEIR CATTLE OFF OF,"> <"YOU CAN TELL A LOT OF TRADERS FROM CHICAGO WATCH THIS,"> <"AS FAR AS THE MARKET TRANSPARENCY GOES, THIS IS A STEP IN THE  RIGHT DIRECTION. IF WE CAN CONTINUE TO MOVE IT FORWARD, WE WILL  HAVE A LOT OF POTENTIAL THERE FOR THE MARKET GUYS AND PRODUCER  GUYS. THE HEDGERS, THE ENDUSERS, ANYONE INVOLVED IN THE  MARKET,"> VANDYKE WATCHES THE EXCHANGE FROM HIS OFFICE  IN CHICAGO. HE BELIEVES IT'S A GOOD START TO  IMPROVING THE CATTLE MARKET.  <"IF YOU PULL UP THE AUCTION, PULL UP THE FUTURES AT THE SAME TIME,  THERE'S NO DOUBT IN MY MIND IT'S WATCHING. YOU CAN SEE THE  FUTURES REACTION AS PRICE CHANGES,"> PRODUCERS HOPE FOR MORE OF THAT  TRANSPARENCY...<"BEFORE IT WAS ALMOST A PHONE CALL OR WORD OF MOUTH ASKING,  'WHAT DID YOU GET FOR CATTLE?' 'WHAT WERE YOU BEING OFFERED?' NOW  IT'S RIGHT OUT THERE AND EVERYONE CAN SEE IT."> TO ERASE THE WILD SWINGS IN THE CATTLE TRADE.  REPORTING FOR AGDAY, I'M BETSY JIBBEN.  THANKS BETSY. LEVI PROPOSED THE IDEA OF AN ONLINE AUCTION FOR  FED CATTLE AT A COMMITTEE MEETING BACK IN '15. THE  IDEA REALLY GRABBED ATTENTION AT NCBA'S ANNUAL  MEETING LAST YEAR. THAT'S WHEN SUPERIOR LIVESTOCK DECIDED TO PARTICIPATE TO CREATE THE  PLATFORM. 

TEASE
UP NEXT, JOHN PHIPPS.  <BREAKING NEWS, AREA MAN NOT ON THE CUTTING  EDGE LIKE EH THOUGHT> <HEY STAY TUNED GOLKS, YOU'RE NOT GOIGN TO WANT  TO MISS THIS. I FOUND A TIME MACHINE, A 1981 JOHN  DEERE 4440, 26 HORUS ON IT. IT WAS THE 2 MILLIONTH  TRACTOR OFF THE LINE IN WATERLOO. WHAT A  STORY>S <U.S. FARM REPORT REPORT IS POWERED BY RESICORE  HERBICIDE FOR CORN, FROM DOW AGROSCIENCES>

JOHN’S WORLD
LAST WEEK, JOHN TALKED ABOUT AMAZON, AND THE  AMAZING ACCESS IT'S PROVIDED FOR RURAL AMERICA. BUT IT'S AN EVOLUTION ALREADY CHANGING THE WAY  SOME FARMERS AND RANCHERS DO BUSINESS.  MY COMMENTS ABOUT AMAZON AND THE FUTURE OF RETAIL PROMPTED  THIS TWEET FROM RANDY UHRMACHER: "LOOKING THROUGH AMAZON WHILE WATCHING US FARM REPORT AND  PHIPPS COMES ON TALKING ABOUT THE RAMIFICATIONS OF DOING  THAT…HMMM." FOR THOSE NOT FAMILIAR WITH TWEETS, ANYTHING WITH AN @ SYMBOL IS  LIKE YOUR EMAIL NAME. RANDY GOES ON: "I SEE SHOPPING FOR AG INPUTS THIS WAY NOW TOO. THAT IS GOOD AND  BAD ALL AT THE SAME TIME." I TWEETED BACK: "AGREE. NOT SURE WHAT IT MEANS OTHER THAN BEING ABLE TO CHOOSE  EXACTLY WHAT I WANT AND NOT LEAVE HOME IS ADDICTIVE." HIS REPLY: "YES, IT IS. I DON'T GET "WALMART RAGE" AS MUCH NOW. OK, I'M NOT SURE WHAT WALMART RAGE IS BUT THEN IT GOT INTERESTING  AS PAUL ANDERSON JOINED THE CONVERSATION."I USE AMAZON EMAIL GIFT CARDS TO PAY FOR SMALL ITEMS I FIND ON  AGTALK CLASSIFIEDS, NO TRANSACTION FEES." AND HE ADDED: "BOUGHT A $200 USED AIR SEEDER MONITOR SYSTEM. JUST EMAILED A  GIFT CARD. DONE." THIS IS BRILLIANT. AMAZON WILL ISSUE A GIFT CARD FOR THE FULL AMOUNT  YOU PAY AND IT CAN BE SENT ANYWHERE AND REDEEMED BY THE  RECIPIENT FOR THE FULL AMOUNT - AT AMAZON, OF COURSE. VERY SLICK,  AND A PERFECT EXAMPLE OF HOW ON-LINE COMMERCE IS CHANGING OUR  PROFESSION. I'LL TALK MORE ABOUT THE AG INPUT ANGLE SOON, AND IN  THE MEANTIME, YOU GUYS SEND ME SOME ADDRESSES IF YOU WANT  MUGS. YOU'VE EARNED THEM.  THANKS, SO MUCH JOHN. IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR  COMEMNTS, YOU CAN REACH OUT TO JOHN ON  TWITTER, OR HERE'S OUR EMAIL ADDRESS... MAILBAG  AT U-S FARM REPORT DOT COM.  WHEN WE COME BACK, BAXTER BLACK.

BAXTER BLACK
BAXTER BLACK WAS A POPULAR FIGURE AT NATIONAL  CATTLEMAN'S BEEF ASSOCIAITON ANNUAL CONVENTION  THIS WEEK. BUT HE JOINS US TO TALK ABOUT LOOKING  AT THINGS WITH YOUR GLASS HALF FULL.  THERE ALWAYS SEEMED TO BE FOLKS WHO NEED TO SAY SOMETHING  GOOD EVEN IN THE WORST OF TIMES LIKE MRS CUSTER MIGHT HAVE SAID  WELL YOU KNOW ON THE BRIGHT SIDE AT LEAST HE WAS WE WEARING  CLEAN UNDIES ONE THIS SPRING GATHER WE WENT OUT FINE OF THREE HUNDRED POUND STEER THAT HAD EVADED US.  WE NAMED HIM ROMPY.  WE NEVER  FOUND HIM THAT DAY BUT WE DID DISCOVER A LEAK IN THE WATER LINE  WHICH ON THE BRIGHT SIDE MADE THE RIDE WORTH IT.  WELL THE NEXT DAY WE  WENT OUT EARLY AND FOUND HIM WITH SOME CATTLE. ALL WENT WELL AND  WE SORTED HIM OFF AND HAULED HIME TO THE HEADQUARTERS HERE TO  HOLD HIM OVERNIGHT FOR THE SALE. THE NEXT DAY A PRETTY GOOD  MORNING I WAS THINKING GOSH AND THEN ROMPY CAME UNGLUED, HE COULD SEE DAYLIGHT THROUGH  THIS PIPE GATE AND INTO THE LOADING ALLEY. IT TOOK FOUR RUNS AT IT AND I RAN AROUND THE FRONT TO FRIGHTEN HIM BACK AND  IT DIDNT WORK AND ON HIS FIFTH TRY HE CRUSHED OPEN I DOVE OUT OF THE WAY AND I LOOKED BACK AS HE SAILED OVER ME  OVER MY SHOULDER AND I REMEMBER THINKING THIS MUST BE ONE OF A  TORPEDO LOOK LIKE WHEN  IT 'S LEAVING THE SUBMARINE WELL WE'RE FINALLY GOT HIM CALLED AGAIN AND HOG TIED BUT WHERE WE  WERE WAS UNREACHABLE BY A TRAILER THAT I WROTE BACK HERE OF MY  HORSE AND HIM AND GOT THE PICK UP AND WENT BACK DOWN TO GET THE BOYS AND ROMPY.  WELL HE WAS TOO HEAVY TO LIFT AND HE WAS STILL ON THE FIGHT SO AFTER MUCH  COWBOY COGITATION WE TOOK TO EIGHT FOOT TWO BY TWELVE AND LATER A E TRIED TO PUSH HIM UP THE BOARDS BUT HE DIDN'T SLIDE SO I DUG  MY BOX OF RESCUE STUFF AND CAME UP WITH THE COME ALONG WE CHAINED IT OVER THE GOOSENECK TURNOVER BALL AND PULLED A  CABLE BETWEEN THE BOARDS AND RAN IT THROUGH A 'S SOFT ROPE WE'D  PUT OVER THE HOG TIE AND BEGAN CRANKING. I  PUSHED AND WE DRUG ROMPY INTO THE BED OF THE PICKUP AN INCH AND A GRUNT AND A TIE THREE OF US LOOKED LIKE WE'D BEEN DRUG THROUGH A KNOT HOLE ON  THE BRIGHT SIDE HE GOT AWAY FIVE HUNDRED POUNDS OR WE COULD HAVE BEEN A GREAT FARMERS AND WE HAVE NEVER BEEN  A BELOW THE THREE HUNDRED POUND RAISIN THERES NOTHING TO TIE THIS  IS  BAXTER BLACK FROM OUT OF HIS MIND OUT THERE

TEASE
THANKS, BAXTER. TO HEAR MORE, VISIT BAXTER BLACK  DOT COM. MACHINERY PETE CALLS THIS TRACTOR THE HOLY  GRAIL OF TRACTORS. IT'S JUST SHY OF 40 YEARS OLD,  WITH LESS THAN 30 HOURS ON IT AND STILL SMELLS  BRAND NEW. THAT'S TRACTOR TALES, NEXT.  <WITH MARKET PRICES CONSTANTLY CHANGING, IT'S IMPROTANT TO KNOW WHERE CURRENT PRICES STAND.  GET MARKETIN PRICES DELIVERED RIGHT TO YOUR  MOBIEL PHONE. JUST TEXT MARKETS TO 31313 TO GET  STARTED>

TRACTOR TALES
WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES FOLKS I TELL YOU THIS WEEK I THINK WE  FOUND THE HOLY GRAIL YOU'VE GOT A NINETEEN EIGHTY ONE JOHN DEERE  FORTY FOUR FORTY TWENTY SIX HOURS ON IT WAS THE TWO MILLIONTH TRACTOR  THAT CAME OFF THE LINE IN WATERLOO AND I'M HERE WITH PHIL LAUER   PRODUCT MANAGER WITH JOHN DEERE AT THE JOHN DEERE EXPO AND  PHIL, THIS IS SOME TRACTOR THANK YOU, YEAH IT IS REALLY A UNIQUE PIECE THE TWO MILLIONTH  TRACTOR MADE OUT OF THE WATERLOO TRACTOR FACTORY AND IT JUST HAPPENS TO BE A FORTY FOUR  MY DAD HAD A FORTY THREE TWENTY AND THEN HE TRADED  THAT AND GOT A FORTY FOUR FOUR FOURTY IN THAT ERA THAT WAS OUR FIRST  CAB TRACTOR BECAUSE OF THE TRACTORS SIGNIFICANCE TO JOHN DEERE HALL. WE'VE NEVER SOLD THE TRACTOR WE KEPT IT AND STORED IT  IN AN  ARCHIVE FACILITY THAT WE HAVE AND SO THE TRACTOR 'S JUST KIND OF  BEEN KEPT UNDER WRAPS SO AS WE WE TALKED ABOUT THE JOHN DEERE  EXPO FOR OUR DEALERS AND FOCUSING ON PARTS AND SERVICE WHERE WE BROUGHT  THESE, AN OLDER TRACTOR THIS THING AND NOW IT 'S THIRTY FIVE YEARS OLD AND PEOPLE TALK AND LAUGH ABOUT TIME MACHINES BUT THAT 'S WHAT WE CAN HAVE HERE. 'S  A OH YEAH YEAH IT 'S IT 'S JUST LIKE IT WAS THE DAY THEY WERE BUILT  FROM THOSE OF YOU EITHER HAD EM OR DROVE EM THEY JUST GET A NEW  CAR. 'S GOT THE SAME NEW TRACTOR SMELL THAT THEY HAD PEOPLE WANT  US CONNECT TO THE OLD CLASSIC AND HISTORIC JOHN DEERE TRACTORS  THERE ARE COUPLE PLACES THEY CAN GO ALL RIGHT. CERTAINLY THERE 'S A COUPLE OPPORTUNITIES SO THE JUDGE UNDER  PAVILION IN  MOLENE THEY HAVE DIFFERENT EXHIBITS FROM TIME TO TIME THERE 'S A NEW PRODUCT BUT THEY'LL HAVE SOME  OLD OLD VEHICLES ON DISPLAY HERE AND THEN ANOTHER ONE. A NEWER  ONE IS THE JOHN DEERE TRACTOR AND ENGINE MUSEUM IN WATERLOO.  JUST JUST WAS RECENTLY OPENED UP WILL BE ANOTHER GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO SEE SOME CLASSIC OR UNIQUE  TRACTORS AND NONE OF MY BUSINESS WITH JOHN DEERE BUT IM TELLING YOU IF THEY  BOUGHT THIS TRACTOR ANYWHERE YOU KNOW FOLKS YOU COME TO SEE  THIS THING AND THANKS AGAIN FOR SHARING US WITH INFORMATION ON  THIS AGAIN THE TWO MILLIONTH TRACTOR OFF LINE IN WATERLOO PHIL, JUST FUN TO BE THERE.

COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE
THIS WEEK'S COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE GOES TO THE  PALISADE LUTHERAN CHURCH IN RURAL ROCK  COUNTRY  MINNESOTA, JUST NORTH OF BEAVER CREEK.  CHECK OUT THIS ARIEL VIEW OF A CHURCH  CELEBRATING IT'S 143RD BIRTHDAY THIS YEAR. THE  CHURCH JUST RECEIVED AN UPDATED LOOK, WITH NEW  SIDING LAST YEAR. THEY HAVE 163 BAPTIZED MEMBERS AND THE  CONGREGATION TELLS ME THEY'RE EXTREMELY  GRATEFUL FOR A GREAT PASTOR, AND MEMBERS. OUR THANKS TO PETER BAKKEN FOR SHARING THEIR  STORY. AS ALWAYS WE WANT TO LEARN ABOUT YOUR HOME  CHURCH AS WELL... SALUTES CAN BE SENT TO THE  ADDRESS ON THE SCREEN.  STAY WITH US - FROM THE  FARM PHOTOS ARE NEXT. 

FROM THE FARM
WELCOME BACK. KIM IN ILLINOIS EMAILED US THIS PICTURE. SHE SAYS  IT'S CALVING SEASON WHERE SHE IS.DURING HTE MONTH OF JANUARY,T HE WET MUDDY CONDITINOS IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS CAUSED CALING SEASONT O BE MESSY. THIS YOUNG ANGUS CALF BORN IN JANUARY FOUDN IS HWAY TO HIGHER GROUND CLIMBING INSIDE THE HAY RING. GREG POSTED THIS PICTURE ON TWITTER, SAYING  WHEAT ISN'T POPULAR, BUT SINCE HE PLANTED IT, HE  THINKS IT'S TIME TO GIVE IT A SHOT OF NITROGEN.  RYAN SAYS IT'S LUNCH TIME AT THE HAY BUFFET.  ALRIGHT. WE RECEIVED A QUESTION FROM A VIEWER DENNIS PATTERSON SAYS. WHEN METEOROLGOISTS  REPORT ANNUAL RAINFALL COMPARED WITH HISTORICAL AVERAGES HOW MANY YEARS BACK ARE CONSIDERED IN THE AVERAGENORMAL IS ALWAYS A THIRTY YEAR PERIOD THE PREVIOUS DECADE 'S, SO IN OTHERWORDS, RIGHT NOW WE'RE WORKING ON NINETEEN EIGHTY ONE THROUGH TWO THOUSAND TEN. IN TWENTY TWENTY WE WILL CHANGE THAT IN NINETEEN NINETY ONE THROUGH TWENTY TWENTY FOR THE NEXT TEN YEARS SO IT 'S ALWAYS A THIRTY YEAR AVERAGE FROM THE PREVIOUS THREE DECADES I DID NOT KNOW THAT THAT IS HOPEFULLY THAT ANSWERS YOUR QUESTION IF NOT, SHOOT US A NOTE BACK AND I'LL ASK HIM AGAIN ENXT WEEK. WHELL IF YOU AHVE A PHOTO OF VIDEO YOU WOULD LIEK TO SEND IN, SEND THOSE TO MAILBAG AT U S FARM REPORT DOT COM OR CHECK US OUT ON FACEBOOK OR TWITTER

CLOSE
FOR ALL OF US THAT U S FARM REPORT THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR WATCHING BE SURE TO JOIN US AGAIN ARE RIGHT HERE NEXT WEEK AS WE WORK TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND. EVERYONE

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