USFR Weekly Recap - January 20-21, 2018

January 20, 2018 03:30 AM
 
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TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
JANUARY 20-21, 2018

HEADLINES


WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS IN FOR TYNE MORGAN, AND HERE'S WHAT WE'RE WORKING ON  FOR YOU. THE U.S. ECONOMY IS ROLLING...WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR AGRICULTURE. IN JOHN'S WORLD... "INCOME TAXES AND YOUR CHURCH BUDGET." WE'RE ON THE ROAD WITH MACHINERY PETE IN DELAWARE. "IT'S HARD TO BE ABLE TO HAVE AROUND THE CLOCK OPERATIONS WHEN YOU HAVE THE AMOUNT OF PEOPLE IN OUR AREA." AND IT'S A JOHN DEERE WATERLOO BOY ON TRACTOR TALES. U.S. FARM REPORT - BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE DEPENDABLE, LONG LASTING, CHEVY SILVERADO.

UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBERS
NOW FOR THE NEWS THAT MOVED THE MARKETS THIS  WEEK...AND THE BIG NEWS COMING FROM THE U.S. ECONOMY. U.S. FILINGS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS PLUMMETED TO THE LOWEST LEVEL IN ALMOST 45 YEARS. THAT COULD PUSH THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE OF 4 POINT 1 PERCENT EVEN LOWER. EXPERTS SAY IT'S A SIGN THE JOB MARKET WILL TIGHTEN FURTHER IN 2018.

DOW HITS 26,000
MEANWHILE, THE DOW BLEW PAST 26-THOUSAND FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER. IT COMES JUST A WEEK AFTER HITTING 25-THOUSAND. ANALYSTS SAY ITS FURTHER EVIDENCE THAT THE LONG-RUNNING BULL MARKET IS ALIVE AND WELL. TAX REFORM, COMPANY EARNINGS, GOOD ECONOMIC DATA AND INVESTOR ENTHUSIASM ARE FEEDING THE BULL MARKET.

COMMODITY PRICES
MEANWHILE, ITS WAS A MIXED BAG FOR MAJOR GRAINS THIS HOWEVER, SOYBEANS SEEING SOME GREEN FOLLOWING LAST WEEK'S USDA REPORTS.NOVEMBER 18 BEANS CLIMBING ABOVE 9-90.NEARBY COTTON FUTURES ALSO HIGHER NOW TRADING PAST THE 83 DOLLAR PER HUNDRED MARK.

DROUGHT MONITOR
DROUGHT AND DRYNESS CONTINUING TO IMPACT WHEAT MARKETS.CHICAGO FUTURES GETTING BACK WITHIN SHOUTING DISTANCE OF EARLY 2018 HIGHS.ANALYSTS SAY WEATHER MAY HAVE AN IMPACTING MOVING FORWARD.NOW MOVING FORWARD WE DO HAVE SOME US WEATHER ISSUES THAT SHOULD BE MONITORED. IT'S VERY DRY THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WE'VE GOT A MORE SEVERE DROUGHT IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTAARE VERY VERY DRY AND THAT'S SOMETHING THAT THE TRADE MAY START TO PAY MORE ATTENTION TO AS WE GET INTO LATE WINTER AND EARLY  SPRING.

JBS SELLING FIVE RIVERS
ON THE CATTLE SIDE, THE BIGGEST NEWS THIS WEEK INVOLVING MEATPACKER, JBS USA. IT'S PLANNING TO SELL FIVE RIVER CATTLE FEEDING TO PINNACLE ASSET MANAGEMENT, FOR ABOUT$200 MILLION. FIVE RIVERS CATTLE FEEDING INCLUDES 11 FEEDLOTS AND HAS A TOTAL FEEDING CAPACITY ESTIMATED AT 980,000 HEAD OF CATTLE, MAKING IT THE LARGEST CATTLE FEEDER IN THE WORLD. AS PART OF THE AGREEMENT FIVE RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY CATTLE TO JBS BEEF PROCESSING PLANTS. IF THE SALE IS FINALIZED IT MEANS THAT NONE OF THE THREE LARGEST BEEF PACKERS -- JBS, TYSON FOODS AND CARGILL--HAVE OWNERSHIP OF A CATTLE FEEDING OPERATION.

WEATHER
THOSE ARE THE HEADLINES...METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH WEATHER... MIKE I KNOW IT'S WINTER BUT WHAT ABOUT A WARM UP? WELL THANKS. CLINTON YES GOING TO TURN WARMER IN THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY BUT IF YOU LIVE OUT WEST IT'S GOING THE OTHER WAY THAT'S KIND OF TYPICAL WHEN THIS HAPPENS THERE'S A DROUGHT MONITOR YOU KNOW THERE IS A LOT MORE COLOR ON THIS MAP THAN WE WERE SEEING A YEAR AGO GOING BACK A MONTH. YOU CAN SEE IT WAS GETTING PRETTY BAD AROUND ARKANSAS AND SOME OF THE SURROUNDING STATES. THOSE AREAS HAVE ACTUALLY IMPROVED A LITTLE BIT BUT THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF DROUGHT HAS BEEN INCREASING BASICALLY FROM THE FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHWEST IT'S STILL LINGERING IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MONTANA BUT NOT AS BAD AS IT'S BEEN. THIS IS GOING TO BE A STORMIER WEEK THOUGH SO WE MAY IMPROVE SOME OF THAT. HERE'S MONDAY PRETTY BIG STORM SYSTEM CLOSE TO IOWA. COLD FRONT OF THE SOUTH. STATIONARY FRONT TO THE EAST OR BE SNOW ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM BUT RAIN ALL THE WAY UP INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AT LEAST TO START. AND NOW BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. NEXT STORM SYSTEM COME OUT COMING IN OUT WEST. THIS ONE WILL ACTUALLY WEAKEN BUT THERE IS ANOTHER ONE LINGERING IT COMES EASTWARD LATER IN THE WEEK BY WEDNESDAY THEN THATSECONDARY ONE COMING INTO THE NORTHWEST WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS OUT THERE THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WESTWARD AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS COOLER AIR BUT NOT AS COLD AIR COMES INTO THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY BY FRIDAY.THEN THERE'S THAT BIG STORM SYSTEM AGAIN MOVING RIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY LOTS OF RAIN UP AND DOWN THE WEST OF THAT IS MUCH COLDER IN AIR COMES IN OUT WEST. WE'LL CHECK YOUR LONGER RANGE FORECAST IN OUR NEXT HALF HOUR. THANKS MIKE.

TEASE
WHEN WE COME BACK...WE'LL SIT DOWN TO DISCUSS THIS MID-JANUARY WEEK IN COMMODITY MARKETS.DON'T GO ANYWHERE.

ROUNDTABLE 1

WELCOME BACK TO US FARM REPORT. TODAY WE HAVE GARY TOAY WITH AG TRADER TALKING DOUG WERLING WITH BOWER TRADING THANK YOU BOTH FOR BEING HERE. GARRETT WE'LL START WITH YOU. AND NOW THAT WE'VE HAD A WEEK TO KIND OF DIGEST THESE USDA REPORTS, WHERE DO YOU THINK WE SIT RIGHT NOW? WELL THE CORN MARKET IS STILL IN A SIDEWAYS RANGE. YOU LOOK AT THE KEY TAKE HOME FOR ME IT WAS THE STOCKS REPORT AND THAT THE FACT THAT YOU KNOW PRETTY MUCH JUST THE MARKET STRUCTURE IS THE SAME AS LAST YEAR. WE HAVE A LARGE SPEC SHORT AND WE HAVE A PRODUCER THAT HAS A LOT OF GREEN SITTING ON THE FARM. IF THERE IS ONE DIFFERENCE VERSUS LAST YEAR IT MAY BE THE LACK OF DECREASE IN WHEAT ACRES, WHICH POTENTIALLY HAS SOME IMPLICATIONS FOR THE 2018 MARKETING YEAR. BUT AT THIS POINT YOU KNOW THAT UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THOSE ACRES WE HAVE 30 TO 45 DAYS HERE THAT PRODUCERS NEED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF. WHAT TYPE OF ACREAGE SPECULATION WE MAY SEE NEXT YEAR TO MARKET A BETTER PORTION OF THEIR OLD CROP GRAIN. YEAH WE'LL SEE. WE DO HAVE JUST A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME TO KIND OF GET THAT DONE. DOUG AS YOU LOOK AT THESE REPORTS WHAT ABOUT FOR YOU THIS PAST WEEK, WHAT WERE YOU TAKEN AWAY. WELL THERE'S TWO BIG THINGS TO JUST KIND OF BOUNCE OFF THIS CORN SITUATION IS ONE. HE IS CORRECT. THERE IS A HUGE SHORTS POSITION IN THAT MARKET. AND YOU KNOW I FEEL AS THOUGH WITH A YIELD BEING WHAT IT WAS ON THAT REPORT AND STOCKS, THEY HAD EVERY OPPORTUNITY TO REALLY PUSH IT LOWER IF THEY WANTED TO. SURE. THAT HAS NOT BEEN THE CASE. SO THAT IS A LONG TERM PLUS BECAUSE IF YOU ARE NET SHORT THESE MARKETS, AND YOU DID NOT JUST SEE THAT HAPPEN, WHAT ARE YOU WAITING FOR HERE? YOU MAYBE LOOKING FOR AN OPPORTUNITY TO SHIFT THOSE POSITIONS. WE SAW THAT THIS PAST WEEK AND THEN YOU KNOW IF YOU LOOK AT THE GLOBAL SITUATION, IT'S VERY LITTLE KNOWN THAT LOOK WE HAD A GREAT CROP HERE. WE HAVE PLENTY OF STOCKS REAL REALIST I GET THAT. YEAH BUT YOU KNOW OUR GLOBAL CORN PRODUCTION THIS YEAR WAS. 10 44 OUR GLOBAL CORN CONSUMPTION WAS 10 66 SO WE USE MORE THAN WE PRODUCE. IT'S SMALL BUT THAT'S A TREND I THINK YOU'RE GOING TO SEE THAT CONTINUE. ALL RIGHT SO A LITTLE BIT OF A POSITIVE THERE AS YOU LOOK AT THE GLOBAL SITUATION GARRETT. WHAT DO YOU THINK. WELL I MEAN WORLD STOCKS ARE DECLINING. I MEAN THE U.S. IS THE RESIDUAL SUPPLIER AT THIS POINT AND WE STILL HAVE A BRAZILIAN CROP TO GROW AND AN ARGENTINE CROP THAT'S GOING THROUGH POLLINATION HERE THE LAST TWO WEEKS THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY HOT WEATHER. BUT YOU KNOW THAT'S THE ONLY THING THAT WE REALLY HAVE IS THAT SPECULATIVE SHORT HERE THAT THAT COULD POTENTIALLY SHORT BE COVERED. BUT THEY HAVE THE PRODUCER THERE TO SELL. SO IF YOU LOOK AT THE CASH STRUCTURE, YOU LOOK AT THE PEOPLE WHO HAVE BEEN ON THE SHOW AS YOU KNOW SELL THE CARRY, SELL THE DEFERREDS. THAT'S BEEN THE CASE THE LAST SEVERAL YEARS WHERE YOU KNOW THE PRODUCER HAS WAITED UNTIL JULY, SEEN WHAT WE'VE HAD A CROP AND THEN WE'VE HAD A FLOW OF GRAIN THAT'S MOVED RIGHT BEFORE HARVEST THAT'S COLLAPSED BASIS INTO HARVEST WELL IF PRODUCERS HAVE SOLD THE CARRY A LITTLE BIT MORE THIS YEAR THAT MEANS THAT YOU'RE PROBABLY NOT GONNA SEE MUCH FOR BASIS APPRECIATION IF ANY OUT IN THOSE DEFERRED SLOTS AND WHERE YOU'RE SEEING THE BASIS APPRECIATION IN THE FRONT END IS WHERE YOU GOT FLAT PRICE ISN'T THAT ATTRACTIVE LEVELS. SO FROM A PRODUCER STANDPOINT YOU KNOW YOU LOOK AT THE BIG PICTURE. YOU KNOW YOU'RE GOING TO HOPE FOR SOME SORT OF SHORT COVERING RALLY. YOU KNOW YOU'VE GOT CRUDE YOU'RE RALLYING YOU KNOW COMMODITIES BUT YOU KNOW TO THIS POINT THE AG MARKETS HAVE BEEN YOU KNOW FAIRLY SECULAR TO THAT.WHAT DO YOU THINK DOUG YOU AGREE WITH THAT. WHAT HE SAID FROM A CASH FRONT AND A DOMESTIC FROM IS SPOT ON. THE BROADER PICTURE. I THINK YOU'RE SLOWLY STARTING TO TURN A SHIP HERE. AND WHAT I MEAN BY THAT IS YOU KNOW IN 2000 WHEN BRAZIL CAME ON THE SCENE YOU KNOW THEY GREW 44 MILLION METRIC TON CROP. LAST YEAR THEY GREW 110 WELL BEANS USED TO BE 550. NOW THEY'RE 950. SO WE SIT THERE AND WE LOOK AT STOCKS AND I FEEL LIKE WE FALL INTO THIS. WELL THIS IS WHAT THEY USED TO BE IN THE PAST. YOU CAN'T LOOK AT THEM THE SAME YOUR GLOBAL DEMAND AND THE GROWTH THAT WE'RE GOING TO SEE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF YEARS HAS CHANGED SO DRAMATICALLY THAT PRICES ARE SUPPORTED AT HIGHER LEVELS THAN THEY USUALLY WERE. I'M NOT SITTING THERE SAYING THINGS ARE GOING TO GO CRAZY AND BE BULLISH BUT YEAH YOU GET HICCUPS ALONG THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY. MARKET USUALLY GIVES YOU WANT IF NOT TO PRICING OPPORTUNITIES AND YOU NEED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THEM. GARRETT DO YOU THINK THE LOWER VALUE OF THE DOLLAR THIS WEEK THAT WE'VE SEEN IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO DRIVE SOME DRIVE SOME OF THESE SALES. IT MAY. I MEAN WE HAD FAIRLY STRONG EXPORT SALES BUT AT THIS POINT CORN EVEN SOYBEANS AND THAT'S THE DRIVER FROM CHINA HAVE BEEN FAIRLY DISAPPOINTING YOU KNOW TO DOUG'S POINT AS IS THE COMING OF THE JANUARY REPORT THE LARGE POSITION YOU KNOW BACK IN MY MIND I EXPECTED NOW THAT WE'VE GOT THE SUPPLY SIDE QUESTION ANSWERED THAT IT PROBABLY IS GOING TO BE THE HIGHEST CARRY OUT ESTIMATE. WE SEE IF WE SEE BETTER EXPORTS IF WE SEE WE'VE GOT 600 MILLION GALLONS OF ETHANOL PRODUCTION COMING ONLINE A LITTLE BIT OF A DISAPPOINTMENT IN THE FEED RESIDUAL NUMBERS. IT'S NOT GOING TO BE A BIG SHIFT BUT IF WE'RE GOING TO TRY TO BOTTOM A CORN MARKET WE NEED TO GET THAT CARRY OUT FROM QUICK GROWING AT THIS POINT. AND WE'RE NOT THERE IT'S NOT GOING TO BE BY LEAPS AND BOUNDS BUT IF WE CAN STABILIZE THE CARRY OUT SEE WHAT WE LOOK AT FOR ACRES WE'VE GOT YOU KNOW FLAT HARD RED WHEAT ACRES NEXT YEAR. YOU KNOW AND THEN WE GET INTO THE SUMMER WEATHER. YEAH WELL THERE'S PLENTY MORE TO TALK ABOUT AS WE GO THROUGH THESE MARKETS. THIS HAS BEEN KIND OF AN INTERESTING JANUARY AND I ALWAYS THINK JANUARY IS REALLY INTERESTING. STICK AROUND WE'LL BE BACK WITH MORE U.S. FARM REPORT IN JUST A MINUTE.

 

ROUNDTABLE 2

WELCOME BACK TO U.S. FARM REPORT. GARRETT TOY AG TRADER TALK DOUG WERLING BOWER TRADING OUR GUEST HERE TODAY. ALL RIGHT. DOUG. WE'LL START WITH YOU. AND AS WE START TO BUILD A PICTURE OF WHAT SUPPLIES ARE WHAT PRICES ARE, WE'RE GETTING A LITTLE MORE INDICATION OF WHAT SOUTH AMERICA IS GOING TO DO, HOW DOES THAT START TO CHANGE OR INFLUENCE WHAT FARMERS IN THE U.S. DO IN 2018 COME SPRING? WELL THE INTERESTING DYNAMIC I THINK YOU JUST SAW FROM THAT WHEAT ACREAGE SITUATION FROM THE LAST REPORT HERE IN JANUARY WAS YOU KNOW IT TOLD US THAT LOOK IF YOU'RE OUTSIDE THE CORN BELT, CORN IS NOT SIX DOLLARS ANYMORE BEANS ARE IN THE TEENS. SO YOU'RE LOOKING TO DIVERSIFY FOR A LOT OF MY LOVE HER TO A LOT OF SORGHUM COTTON IS GOING TO BE A PHENOMENAL GROWTH POINT FOR INDIVIDUALS WHO ARE STILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO EXPAND THERE. KNOW THAT'S A MARKET PRICES HAVE BEEN STRONG. SURE. THAT'S A MARKET THAT HAD TWO YEARS OF LESS PRODUCTION WITH INCREASING DEMAND. SO YOU SEE A LOT OF SIMILARITIES AND THEN THE OTHER GRAIN MARKETS. IT JUST TAKES TIME TO GET THERE. SO IT'S NOT JUST GOING TO BE THIS CORN BEAN. THERE'S GOING TO BE ALL THESE OTHER MIX OUTSIDE THE CORN BELT THAT I THINK MAY SURPRISE. YOU YOU MAY NOT HAVE THIS BIG SHIFT IS LARGEST SHIFT IN BEAN AND CORN ACRES AS WE'RE NORMALLY USED TO BECAUSE THEY'LL BE OTHER THINGS WE'LL BE DIVERSIFYING INTO. YEAH. GARRETT DO YOU THINK WE'LL SHIFT OUT OF CORN AND BEANS OR WILL WE JUST TAKE SOME OF THOSE OTHER ACRES OR AT LEAST YOUR AT LEAST STOPPING THE FLOW INTO CORN AND SOYBEAN IN THIS REPORT THIS TIME LAST YEAR WE HAD A MILLION ACRES OF WINTER WHEAT THAT WERE EITHER GOING TO GO TO CORN AND SOYBEANS. MOST LIKELY WE DON'T HAVE THAT THIS YEAR. BUT DOUG EXACTLY RIGHT. WE'VE GOT COTTON YOU'VE GOT SORGHUM YOU KNOW CHINA'S AFTER THE SORGHUM BECAUSE IT'S NON GMO YOU CAN GET IT IN THEY DON'T NEED TRQ. THEY'RE IMPORTING HUGE AMOUNTS OF SORGHUM. THE PROTEIN ISSUES IN THE OLD CROP WINTER WHEAT YOU KNOW THE HARD RED SPRING ACRES YOU KNOW THAT YOU MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SHIFTS THERE. BUT THE POINT IS THE LEAST YOU'RE STOPPING THAT FLOW YOU KNOW 350 CORN IS STOPPING THE FLOW INTO INTO INTO CORN. SOYBEAN MARKET, THERE'S THE RISK YOU KNOW A RALLY ON ARGENTINE WEATHER YOU'VE GOT THE TEN DOLLAR NEW CROP HERE TODAY. AN OPPORTUNITY TO MARKET SOME NEW CROP OR HEDGE SOME NEW CROP BEANS. AGAIN IF YOU HAVEN'T HAD THAT OPPORTUNITY YOU KNOW IF IF WE GET A SUBSTANTIAL BEAN ACRES THEN YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE THAT SHIFT BACK TO THE SOYBEAN MARKET. AND I THINK THE BIGGEST QUESTION THAT YOU'VE GOT RIGHT NOW IS IS WHERE ARE THESE 90 MILLION ACRES OF BEANS WE HAD LAST YEAR WHERE THEY'RE GOING TO GO? YEAH OR THEY GO RIGHT IF THEY GO IF THEY GO ANYWAY. SO AS YOU START TO KIND OF BUILD OUT 2018 DOUG AND YOU LOOK AT THE MARKET DYNAMIC IN THE WORLD DYNAMIC WHAT INDICATORS, WHAT ARE YOU WATCHING FOR TO SAY "HEY THIS IS HOW I'M GOING TO MAKE DECISIONS THIS YEAR" AND OBVIOUSLY WEATHER IS ALWAYS A BIG ONE. WELL IF YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT GRAIN-SPECIFIC, I LOOK AT MORE BROAD BASED COMMODITIES IN GENERAL FOR 2018. I THINK 2017 PROVED THAT THERE'S ENOUGH DEMAND UNDER THESE MARKETS WHEN YOU HAVE REALLY GOOD CROPS TO SUPPORT PRICES AND 2018 I THINK WILL BE A VERY GOOD OPPORTUNISTIC OPPORTUNITY FOR COMMODITIES IN GENERAL. WE HAVE A LOWER DOLLAR WE'RE GOING TO HAVE A LOT OF MONEY FLOW LOOKING AT THESE THINGS BECAUSE THEY HAVE VALUE. ANYTIME YOU SEE THE OIL MARKET INCREASING AND THAT WAS A A TWO YEAR SITUATION THAT'S YOU KNOW DRAWN DOWN STOCKS GLOBALLY AND DOMESTICALLY THAT'S A BIG OPEN FOR BUSINESS SIGN FOR ALL COMMODITIES IN GENERAL. AND WE FEEL AS THOUGH THE EQUITY MARKETS YOU'RE GOING TO SEE A LOT OF THAT MONEY START COMING INTO COMMODITIES AND GOLDMAN SACHS IS DOING HEAVY COMMODITIES SO IT'S BECOMING MORE IN VOGUE IS WHAT I'M SAYING. WHICH IS LONGER TERM PROMISING FOR PRICE SUPPORT AND PRICE APPRECIATION OUTSIDE OF FUNDAMENTALS. YEAH. WHAT DO YOU AGREE GARRETT.IT'S POSSIBLE I THINK THEIR MARKETING OPPORTUNITIES. I DON'T KNOW IF IT'S SUSTAINABLE OR NOT GIVE THEM THE LARGE SUPPLIES. YOU KNOW YOU LOOK AT THE CORN CARRYOUT, YOU LOOK AT THE SOYBEAN CARRY OUT. MORE SO THE CORN CARRY OUT THESE ARE LEVELS THAT WE HAVEN'T SEEN IN MULTIPLE DECADES. SOYBEANS ARE SOYBEANS THOUGH. AND IF YOU HAVE A SOUTH AMERICAN WEATHER ISSUE THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS VERY IMPORTANT FOR ARGENTINA AND BRAZIL. BUT THEY STILL HAVE LARGE OLD CROP SUPPLIES. I MEAN EVEN LOOK AT THE THE THE THE EXPORT PROGRAM HERE IN THE JANUARY REPORT THE U.S. SHOULD BE SHIPPING BETTER CORN EXPORTS THAN WHAT WE SHOULD HAVE BEEN. WE GOT BETTER SALES NUMBERS TODAY. BRAZIL ISN'T SHIPPING AS MUCH CORN AS THEY ARE BUT IT JUST WHEN THEY CUT THAT EXPORT NUMBER IT WENT STRAIGHT TO STOCKS. SO THAT GREEN IS SITTING DOWN THERE AND WAITING FOR AN OPPORTUNITY LIKE WE ARE AS A RESIDUAL SUPPLIER HERE IN THE U.S. AND THAT'S WHERE HIM AND I WE AGREE TO DISAGREE IN A CERTAIN WAY. I FEEL AS THOUGH THAT WE'RE TURNING A CORNER AND YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE SUCH GOOD GLOBAL GROWTH THIS YEAR THAT WE'RE GOING TO CONTINUE TO DRAW THESE STOCKS DOWN. I MEAN BY 2022 INDIA IS GOING TO OUTPACE CHINA IN POPULATION SO MORE MONEY MORE MIDDLE CLASS INCOME. MORE CONSUMPTION BASE. AND THAT IS PRICE SUPPORTIVE. SO HICCUP'S WILL GIVE YOU PLENTY OPPORTUNITIES, AND I DON'T DISAGREE WITH HIM ON THAT. AND PEOPLE NEED TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THAT SELL AND DEFENSE STRATEGIES HAVE THINGS IN PLACE. WHAT YOUR TARGETS ARE.ALL RIGHT THANK YOU BOTH FOR BEING HERE. WE'RE GOING TO GET YOUR FINAL THOUGHTS AND SOME TIPS FOR MOVING THROUGH 2018 WHEN WE COME BACK AND HAVE MORE U.S. FARM REPORT IN JUST A SECOND.

MARKETS NOW

WELCOME BACK TO THE U.S. FARM REPORT FINISHING UP WITH MARKETS NOW DOUG, GO AHEAD. WELL THE ENERGY MARKET AND THE COMPONENTS ARE PRETTY INTERESTING. WE'VE HAD CRUDE OIL STOCKS ACTUALLY DECLINE EVERY MONTH SINCE THIS TIME LAST YEAR AND THAT'S WITH INCREASING SHALE PRODUCTION AND RIG COUNTS. IT TELLS YOU THAT GLOBAL CONSUMPTION AND DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION IS INCREASING. YOU KNOW I THINK THAT IF YOU GET A BIG DIP IN GASOLINE THAT'S GOING TO BE AN OPPORTUNITY TO BE PRICING SOME DIESEL FUEL BECAUSE THIS SUMMER AS YOU CAN ALREADY SEE NOW TRUCK TRAFFIC. IS GOING TO BE NOT AS CHEAP AS IT IS. IT'S GOING TO BE A PRETTY DYNAMIC SITUATION. WE HIT TEN DOLLAR NOV BEANS THIS WEEK. A NEW CROP. KNOWING LAST YEAR'S HIGHS WERE AROUND $10.20. IF WE GET AN OPPORTUNITY TO MARKET UP AGAINST THOSE LEVELS THEY'D BE LOOKING TO HEDGING NEW CROP BEANS NEW CROP CORN. YOU KNOW WE'RE STILL STUCK IN THIS RANGE. IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE WE'RE GETTING AN OPPORTUNITY TO GET SOME FOUR DOLLAR NEW CROP SALES ON IF YOU DIDN'T SELL LAST SUMMER. BUT I WILL BE IN THE OPPORTUNITY NEXT 30 45 DAYS ARE LOOKING TO GET SOME NEW SCRO. ALL RIGHT THANK YOU BOTH FOR BEING HERE. NEWS FARM REPORT REALLY APPRECIATE YOUR INSIGHTS. WE'LL BE BACK WITH JOHN.

JOHN’S WORLD
WHILE THE RECENT TAX CHANGES FROM WASHINGTON SEEMS TO BE ENTICING SOME BUSINESSES TO ACTION -- LIKE APPLE JUST ANNOUNCING THIS WEEK ITS PLANS TO REINVEST OVERSEAS DOLLARS BACK IN THE U.S. BASED ON THE BILL--OTHERS MAY HAVE A DIFFERENT EXPERIENCE.HERE'S JOHN PHIPPS FROM THE FARM.WHILE FARMERS ARE SORTING OUT THE REMARKABLE LEGISLATIVE BLUNDER THAT, IF UNCORRECTED, COULD OBLITERATE THEIR TAX LIABILITIES, THERE IS ANOTHER LESS PUBLICIZED BUT STILL CONSEQUENTIAL CHANGE. IN AN EFFORT TO REFORM AND SIMPLIFY, THAT ARGUABLY CAME UP SHORT OF THAT GOAL, LAWMAKERS DECIDED TO INCREASE THE STANDARD DEDUCTION AND CHANGE OTHER POPULAR DEDUCTIONS AT THE SAME TIME. ONE OF THOSE IS THE CHARITABLE GIVING DEDUCTION.THE DETAILS ARE JUST AS EXCITING AS YOU MIGHT EXPECT, BUT EXPERTS THINK THE CHANGE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER CHARITABLE GIVING. I AGREE. ODDLY ENOUGH, THE GREATEST IMPACT OF THIS CHANGE SEEMS TO FALL ON MIDDLE CLASS TAXPAYERS, FROM $75,000 TO $200,000 INCOME.WHILE OUR PRIMARY MOTIVE FOR GIVING TO CHARITY MAY NOT BE BASED ON OUR TAXES, SOME RESEARCH SUGGESTS THE DONATING BEFORE-TAX DOLLARS DID AFFECT HOW MUCH WE GAVE. INDEED, ALMOST ALL CHARITY SOLICITATIONS HIGHLIGHT THE FACT THAT YOUR CONTRIBUTION IS TAX DEDUCTIBLE. IT ALSO COMMON TO HEAR COMMENTS LIKE, "I'D RATHER GIVE TO THE CHURCH THAN THE GOVERNMENT." WITH THIS CHANGE, THAT FEATURE WON'T MEAN MUCH TO MANY PEOPLE.TAX ANALYSTS EXPECT ONLY ABOUT 5% OF FILERS TO ITEMIZE DEDUCTIONS, DOWN FROM ABOUT 30%. THIS HAS MANY RELIGIOUS AND SECULAR ORGANIZATIONS THAT DEPEND ON MIDDLE-CLASS GIVING WORRIED. COUPLED WITH CHANGES TO THE ESTATE TAX, FEWER INCOME DOLLARS WILL BE SUBJECT TO TAXATION. OF COURSE, MANY THINK THAT'S A GOOD THING. LOWER TAXES MEAN MORE DOLLARS THAT PEOPLE CAN GIVE. IF YOU ARE MOTIVATED TO. BUT ABSENCE OF TAX DEDUCTIBILITY FOR MANY DONORS NOW PRESENTS CHARITIES WITH A SERIOUS EDUCATION CHALLENGE AT THE VERY LEAST.NOBODY KNOWS HOW MUCH THIS WILL AFFECT CHARITABLE GIVING, OR IF GIVING WILL STABILIZE AT ABOUT THE SAME LEVEL. SOME EXPERTS BELIEVE GIVING COULD DROP BY AS MUCH AS $13 BILLION OR ABOUT 8% NATIONALLY, WHICH IS SIGNIFICANT. BUT ONE THING IS CLEAR. TAXES INFLUENCE OUR ECONOMIC CHOICES. CHARITIES THAT HAVE RELIED UPON THIS TAX BREAK TO ENCOURAGE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE MIDDLE CLASS, LIKE ESTATE PLANNERS WHO RELIED UPON HIGHER ESTATE TAXES, ARE IN FOR A TIME OF CHANGE.PERSPECTIVE FROM JOHN PHIPPS. THANKS JOHN.STILL TO COME... WE'LL CHECK IN WITH A TOP PRODUCER AS HE BUILDS A FUTURE WITH FAMILY AND ORGANIC FARMING.PLUS WE'RE ON THE ROAD WITH MACHINERY PETE TO DELAWARE.

HEADLINES
WELCOME BACK TO U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS.HERE'S WHAT'S COMING UP IN THIS HALF HOUR.A FARM ECONOMY UPDATE--RURAL BANKERS WEIGH IN.GROWING IN ORGANICS--A TOP PRODUCER MAKING HIS MARK BEYOND CONVENTIONAL CORN.AND DIVERSITY DRIVERS-- MACHINERY PETE SHOWS US ALTERNATIVE CROPS ARE DRIVING EQUIPMENT SALES BACK EAST.

RURAL MAINSTREET INDEX
NOW FOR THE HEADLINES...THE LATEST RURAL MAINSTREETINDEX RAISING CAUTION FLAGS FROM BANKERS.THE JANUARY CREIGHTON UNIVERSITY SURVEY OF BANKERS IN TEN RURAL STATES SHOWS THE OVERALL INDEX SINKING AGAIN THIS MONTH REMAINING BELOW GROWTH NEUTRAL...ALTHOUGH IT WAS HIGHER THAN JANUARY LAST YEAR.THOSE BANKS ARE NOW CITING FARM LOAN DEFAULTS AS A CONCERN.40 PERCENT OF BANK LEADERS SAYING DEFAULTS ARE NOW THE GREATEST CHALLENGE FOR 2018.MORE THAN SEVEN IN 10 BANKERS SAY ENDING NAFTA WOULD HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THEIR ECONOMIC AREA.

NAFTA TALKS
SPEAKING OF NAFTA, CANADA IS SET TO HOST THE SIXTH AND POTENTIALLY MAKE-OR-BREAK ROUND OF NAFTA TALKS NEXT WEEK IN MONTREAL.PRESIDENT TRUMP SOFTENING HIS STANCE ON THE TRADE DEAL THIS WEEK, EVEN SUGGESTING THE DEADLINE FOR FINALIZING NEGOTIATIONS MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AFTER THE MEXICAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.AN AG OFFICIAL FROM CANADA SAYS TRYING TO KEEP UP WITH U.S. ATTITUDES ABOUT NAFTA IS LIKE FOLLOWING A PINBALL.

BRAZIL CONSIDERS REMOVING U.S. ETHANOL TARIFF
ALSO ON THE TRADE FRONT...BRAZIL MAY BE CONSIDERING DROPPING IT'S 20% IMPORT DUTY ON U.S. ETHANOL.THE NEWS COMING FROM RECENT COMMENTS MADE BY THE BRAZILIAN AG MINISTER WHO LINKED THAT DECISION TO BANNED IMPORTS OF FRESH BRAZILIAN BEEF. THE BRAZILIAN MINISTER SAYING QUOTE "THERE IS ON THE PART OF THE U.S. A BIG DEMAND TO WITHDRAW THE ETHANOL TARIFF AND WE ALSO HAVE THIS PROBLEM WITH BEEF -- OBVIOUSLY ONE THING INFLUENCES AND CONTAMINATES THE OTHER."

WEATHER
THAT'S IT FOR NEWS...METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN JOINS US ONCE AGAIN. MIKE HOW IS WINTER PRECIPITATION STACKING UP THUS FAR? WELL CLINTON I THINK IT'S BEEN A DRIER WINTER THAN NORMAL WHICH IS TYPICAL LA NIÑA FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES BUT NOT SO MUCH FARTHER NORTH. THIS IS A DIFFERENT WEEK THOUGH WE SEE TWO BIG SYSTEMS COMING EAST. FIRST ONE SHOWING UP IN THE JET STREAM ALREADY COMING THROUGH THE WEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAT MOVES THROUGH THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN NORTHEASTERN ESPECIALLY PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. WEDNESDAY THEN A QUICK SHOT OF COLDER AIR GREAT LAKES NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE NORTHEAST. NEXT STORM SYSTEM THEN COMES IN LATER IN THE WEEK COMING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE ROCKIES. BUT THE STORM SYSTEM ITSELF OUT IN THE PLAIN STATES AND THIS WILL BE A BIG WET ONE AS WELL. SO THAT COULD CHANGE THINGS A LITTLE BIT. THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. SO MAY 30 THE OUTLOOK FOR TEMPERATURES I'M GOING BELOW NORMAL FROM MISSOURI NORTHWARD BASICALLY ABOVE NORMAL THE FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTHERN TEXAS MOST OF THE SOUTHWEST PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 30 DAYS FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE GREAT LAKES ABOVE NORMAL ABOVE NORMAL NORTHWEST BELOW NORMAL SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST.

FARM JOURNAL REPORT
THANKS MIKE...THE HUMANE SOCIETY OF THE UNITED STATES SAY IT IS SUING USDA FOR DROPPING THE ORGANIC LIVESTOCK RULE. THE FINAL RULE WAS SCHEDULED TO BE 'FINALIZED' LAST MONTH.IT COVERED STANDARDS FOR ORGANIC MILK, MEAT AND EGGS.THE ANIMAL ACTIVIST GROUP SAYS WITHDRAWING THIS RULE THREATENS TO ERODE THE INTEGRITY OF THE ORGANIC SEAL.THE LATEST USDA DATA SHOWS DOUBLE-DIGIT GROWTH IN ORGANIC PRODUCTION  ORGANIC SALES NOW ACCOUNT FOR MORE THAN FOUR PERCENT OF TOTAL U-S FOOD SALES.BETSY JIBBEN INTRODUCES US TO A WISCONSIN FARMER WHO CHANGED TURNED TO ORGANIC PRODUCTION 30 YEARS AGO--BEFORE "ORGANIC" BECAME MAINSTREAM.AS RANDY HUGHES TAKES A WALK THROUGH HIS SHOP HE HAS TWO MORE EMPLOYEES AT HIS SIDE -A TEAM HE THOUGHT WOULD BE TOUGH TO RECRUIT. "THEY CAME BACK. PART OF IT MAY HAVE BEEN THEY THOUGHT THEY WOULD GIVE IT A TRY,"THEY - INCLUDE HIS SON WILLIE AND DAUGHTER JULIANNE, THE DUO CAME BACK TO THE FARM AFTER PURSUINGOTHER CAREERS. "AFTER I GRADUATED IN 2009, I TOOK A LOOK AT WANTED TO DO AND COMING BACK HOME JUST KIND OF FELT RIGHT,""I MISSED BEING AROUND THE FAMILY TEAM. THAT'S WHERE MY HEART WAS,""I DIDN'T THINK THAT 10 YEARS AGO. NEITHER ONE OF THEM SHOWED ANY INTEREST."RANDY IS USED TO CHANGE OVER THE YEARS.AS A YOUNG FARMER, HE LONGED TO MAKE MONEY BY GROWING ENOUGH CORN TO CONTROL THE BOARD OF TRADE... "LAUGHS YEAH, WHAT A DREAMER, YEAH, THAT WOULD TAKE A LOT OF CORN TO DO THAT. LAUGHS,"HIS PRIORITIES CHANGED WHEN HE GOT SICK OF COMPETINGWITH EVERY CORN PLANTER IN THE U.S.HE TOOK ONE LOVE AND TRADED IT IN FOR A NEW CHALLENGE...SEARCHING OUT A NICHE THAT'S PAID OFF - AS HE FOCUSES ON QUALITY INSTEAD OF QUANTITY. "I'M FORTUNATE I WAS ABLE TO RIDE ON THE COAT TAILS OF THE ORGANIC INDUSTRY WHICH AS DONE WELL. THE ACRES THAT WE AHVE IN ORGANICS IS SOME OF THE MOST PROFITABLE ACRES, SOME OF OUR RISKIER ACRES YOU GET A BIG GOOSE EGG ON THEM SOMETIMES BUT THEY'RE CERTAINLY A LOT MORE FUN TO GROW,"HE MADE A LEAP INTO THE ORGANIC INDUSTRY AND WAS CERTIFIED IN THE EARLY 1990S. ALMOST THIRTY YEARS LATER - HE GROWS 5,000 ACRES OF NON-GMOCROPS, BOTH ORGANIC AND CONVENTIONAL."WE DON'T GROW ANYTHING THAT IS NUMBER 2 YELLOW CORN,"HE MAY BE MOST WELL KNOWN FOR A BLUE CORN VARIETY WHICH PUT HIM IN THE BLACK AND STILL DOES TODAY."WE STILL GROW BLUE CORN EVERY OTHER YEAR OR SO BECAUSE WE GROW ENOUGH IN ONE YEAR TO LAST THE CHIP BUSINESS FOR TWO YEARS. WHAT WE DO IS WE GROW THE CORN AND WE TAKE IT TO A PLACE WHICH PROCESSES AND STORES IT AND MAKES THE CHIPS OUT OF IT,"LIKE THE MARKET, THE OPERATION HAS CHANGED. GROWING DEMAND MAKES THE CROPS EASIER TO MARKET. AND PREMIUMS ARE EVEN SWEETER. "BEFORE WE HAD TO HAUL IT A WAYS, HAD TO MAKE A LOT OF PHONE CALLS AND MARKET IT. IT'S NOT SO HARD TO MARKET NOW,"PERHAPS, THE GROWTH RANDY IS MOST OF PROUD IS THE RETURN OF HIS KIDS "I DON'T KNOW IF THERE'S A BRIGHTER SPOT IN MY WHOLE LIFE THAN THAT. I'M CHOKING UP ON THIS ONE. TO COME TO WORK EVERYDAY AND I HAVE A GRANDSON THAT SHOWS UP EVERY DAY. IT'S JUST WONDERFUL. ICAN'T TELL YOU HOW HAPPY I AM ABOUT THAT,"REPORTING IN JANESVILLE, WISCONSIN, I'M BETSY JIBBEN.RANDY HUGHES WAS A FINALIST FOR TOP PRODUCER OF THE YEAR SEVERAL SEASONS BACK. AND WE'RE PREPARING TO DO THAT AGAIN.NEXT WEEK, TOP PRODUCER SEMINAR INCLUDING ANNOUNCING THE 2018 TOP PRODUCER OF THE YEAR--KICKS OFF IN CHICAGO.TYNE MORGAN WILL ALSO BE ON HAND SHOOTING NEXT WEEK'S MARKETING ROUND TABLES FROM THE EVENT.OUR VERY OWN TOP PRODUCER--JOHN PHIPPS IS NEXT.'I'M NOT THE ONLY THING WITH NOTHING TO WEAR.'

CUSTOMER SUPPORT
JOHN RECENTLY LAMENTED HIS LACK OF BRANDED CLOTHING AT CHORE TIME.AND APPARENTLY IT STRUCK A NERVE.HERE'S JOHN.I RECEIVED SOME SYMPATHETIC MESSAGES REGARDING MY LACK OF BRANDED WORK CLOTHING.FROM DENNIS ELLIOT IN HENDERSON, KENTUCKY."I HAD TO LAUGH SAT. MORNING WHILE WATCHING USFR. ON FRI. I HAD TO BREAK DOWN AND ORDER ME A COAT ONLINE. IT IS VERY MUCH LIKE THE ONE YOU WERE WEARING. I TOO AM A "MATURE" FARMER. I USED TO RECEIVE JACKETS, CAPS, GLOVES, ETC. WITH EVERY ORDER OF SEED, CHEMICALS OF ALL BRANDS. I HAD NO IDEA WHAT A COAT ACTUALLY COST."WE SEEM TO HAVE DEVELOPED AN UNHEALTHY DEPENDENCE ON FREEBIE CLOTHING, AND GOING COLD TURKEY IS…WELL, COLD.BUT NOT AS COLD AS THIS FROM JERRY COKER IN COLFAX, WASHINGTON."I WATCHED YOUR TALK ON NOT HAVING A CHORE JACKET AND HAVING TO GO TO BUY A NEW ONE. WHEN I ENLISTED IN THE AIR FORCE OF COURSE I LEFT MOST OF MY CLOTHES AT HOME. A YEAR LATER WHEN I CAME HOME ON LEAVE I WENT TO THE CLOSET TO GET MY CIVVIES I FOUND THAT MY DAD HAD WORN THEM OUT. I AM BIGGER THAN HIM SO HE USED MY CLOTHES AS A SECOND LAYER WHEN IT WAS COLD. I HAD TO GO TO TOWN AND BUY NEW CLOTHES SO I DID NOT HAVE TO WEAR MY UNIFORMS WHILE ON LEAVE. THANKS FOR THE MEMORIES."DADS. THEY'RE THE WORST. EXCEPT MAYBE FOR LOYAL VIEWER MARTY WITTIG."OK, YOUR FARM JACKET COMMENTS HAVE TO BE THE FUNNIEST OF ALL YOUR COMMENTS. I ALMOST FEEL BAD ENOUGH TO SHIP YOU ONE OF MINE. ALMOST."LUCKILY FOR HIM, MARTY GOT HIS MUG A LONG TIME AGO. BUT DENNIS AND JERRY WILL SOON BE SIPPING FROM A PRICELESS USFR COLLECTIBLE. MY THANKS TO ALL THOSE GENTLEMEN.THANKS JOHN.WE'LL HEAD OUT ON THE ROAD WITH MACHINERY PETE ...NEXT.

ON THE ROAD WITH MACHINERY PETE
AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEW YEAR, MACHINERY PETE IS WATCHNG THE MOMENTUM CONTINUE FROM A STRONG FINISH TO 2017. THIS WEEK, TYNE MORGAN IS ON THE ROAD WTIH MACHINERY PETE TO DELEWARE, WHERE THE NEED TO BE DIVERSE IS DRIVING EQUIPMENT TRENDS FOR ATLANTIC TRACTOR COMPANY. OPEN THE DOOR TO THIS DELEWARE OPERATION…AND GET  A TASTE OF FARMING IN DELMARVA. DIVERSITY HAS BEEN OUR KEY. AND FOR TJ SHIFF, IT'S DIVERSITY THAT'S PAYING OFF. WE OPERATE A COUNRTY ELEVATOR. FARM CORN, SOYBEANS, WHEAT NDBARLEY. AND RUN A FEEDLOT AND DIVERSIFIED INTO RESIDENTIAL HOUSING. WHILE IT'S DIVERSITY HELPING HIM WEATHER THE FINANCIAL HEADWINDS, BIG YIELDS IN 2017 ARE ALSO PROVIDING SOME FINANCIAL CUSHION. WE HAD A SUPER SOYBEAN CROP. AND THAT. THAT BROUGHT CASH FLOW TO FARMERS THAT WAS REALLY A LITTLE BIT OF WHAT ARE KNOWN WHERE IT WAS GOING TO COME FROM. IT'S THE BUSTLE OF TRUCKS MOVING GRAIN IN AND OUT THAT'S PROOF DEMAND IN THIS AREA IS STRONG. SO PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THEIR CORN WHICH WERE A BIG CORN GROWING AREA GOES TO THE POULTRY INDUSTRY SOLID DEMAND IS HELPING BASIS, BUT FARMING IN THIS AREA ISN'T EASY… AND THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS THE SIZE OF FARM FIELDS.  I WOULD THINK YOU COULD EASILY SAY OUR AVERAGE FIELD SIZE IS. 30 TO 40 ACRES. 50 ACRES. SCHIFF SAYS IT'S NOT JUST THE SIZE OF THE FIELDS, BUT TRYING TO MOVE FROM ONE FARM TO THE NEXT THAT CREATES CHAOS. IT'S HARD TO BE EFFICIENT HERE. IT'S HARD TO BE ABLE TO. HAVE AROUND THE CLOCK OPERATIONS WHEN YOU HAVE THE AMOUNT OF PEOPLE IN OUR AREA. IT'S THE NEED TO COVER A VARIETY OF ACRES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL MILES CREATING DEMAND FOR LARGE, HORSEPOWER TRACTORS. I THINK THE EIGHT THOUSAND SERIES TRACTORS HAVE BROUGHT A LOT OF VERSATILITY. THEY OWN US ON SOMEDAYS THEY CAN DO THE SMALL JOB AND ON OTHER DAYS THEY CAN DO THE BIG JOB.  IT'S THAT TYPE OF EQUIPMENT DRIVING BUSINESS FOR ATLANTIC TRACTOR COMPANY. LARGE ROW OBJECTIVES FOR US IS IT'S CRITICAL. WE LIKE 300 HORSEPOWER ROW CROPS. THE DEALERSHIP'S FOOTPRINT EXPANDS INTO MARYLAND AND NEW JERSEY, AN AREA THAT SUPPORTS A POULTRY INDUSTRY ALWAYS HUNGRY FOR FEED. ROW CROP TRACTORS IS ALWAYS THE SEXY PIECE OF EQUIPMENT YOU KNOW FOR US IN THIS REGION WE USE CROP TRACTORS 12 MONTHS A YEAR  THE NEED FOR LARGER EQUIPMENT HASN'T CHANGED, BUT HOW OFTEN A CUSTOMER UPGRADES HAS EVOLVED. FOR CUSTOMERS THAT WERE TRADING COMBINES EVERY YEAR OR EVERY TWO YEARS THEY'RE USED TO A THOUSAND OR LESS OUR COMPANY. NOW THEY'VE RUN THEM FOR THREE OR FOUR YEARS AND THEY'RE IN THE 2000 RANGE. THOSE CUSTOMERS NOW WOULD START THINKING ABOUT UPGRADING EITHER TO OR LOWER OUR USED ONE OR THEY WANT TO GET BACK IN THE NEW CYCLE TO GET THOSE HOURS BACK DOWN. HE SAYS THAT COULD SPUR A 10 PERCENT INCREASE IN PURHCASESOF LARGER MACHINES THIS YEAR. THAT'S AFTER A DECENT END TO 2017. DEMAND WAS GOOD WE SAW 2017 WAS A GOOD YEAR COMING OUT OF THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF YEARS. SO A BIG PUSH ON USED EQUIPMENT TOWARDS THE END OF 2017 FOR US. IT'S THE SURPRISINGLY STRONG FINISH TO 2017 THAT HAS THE INTEREST OF MACHINERY PETE. BUT THE ONE THING I'M WONDERING ABOUT IS IF AND WHEN THE PRICE OF CORN DOES GO UP JUST A LITTLE BIT IT'S ALMOST LIKE WE'VE SET THIS PRESSURE VALVE TO POP. THAT WILL BE NEW SALES AND USE SALES SO AND UNTIL THAT HAPPENS IT'S STILL A GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO UPGRADE. SEARCH TRAFFIC  FOR PLANTERS ON MACHINERY PETE DOT COM WAS UP 25 PERCENT IN NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER, BUT MACHINERY PETE SAYS IT'S STILL A GOOD TIME TO BUY.   PLANTERS THERE'S A LOT OF MILEAGE THERE. VALUES ARE A LITTLE BIT SOFTER ALTHOUGH I WOULD SAY THE SUMMER PICKED UP A LITTLE BIT AND A LARGE TILLAGE UP OVER 50 FOOT DESKS THE RIPPER'S. TECHNOLOGY IS A MAJOR PIECE. I DIDN'T VISUALIZE WITH TECHNOLOGY WAS GOING TO DO FOR US. TEN YEARS AGO I REALLY THOUGHT TECHNOLOGY WAS GOING TO BE FOR OTHER PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. BUT IT'S AMAZING HOW WE'RE WE'VE BECOME DEPENDENT ON IT. HE SAYS AREA FARMERS HAVE INVESTED IN THE TECHNOLOGY AND INFRASTRUCUTRE NEEDED TO RAISE THE BAR ON GROWING CROPS. AND THAT'S WHY YOU'VE SEEN THERE'S A LOT OF IRRIGATIONS THAT'S BEEN PUT IN BECAUSE WE NEED THOSE TO 70S. WE'VE GOT TO COUNT ON THE 270. WE'VE GOT TO BE ABLE TO SELL THAT 270 A YEAR BEFORE WE PRODUCE IT. WE CAN'T WAIT TO SEE WHAT THE YIELD IS TO MARKET THE CROP. IT'S NOT JUST MANAGING FOR HIGHER YIELDS DRIVING DECISIONS.. IT'S ALSO INCREASED REGULATIONS WHEN FARMING NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. FIELD MANAGEMENT IS CRITICAL NUTRIENT MANAGEMENT IS CRITICAL APPLICATION PASSES CRITICAL, SITE SPECIFIC FARMING FOR US WE HAVE VARYING SOIL CONDITIONS. WE HAVE A VARIETY OF PH WHILE THE CONCERN ABOUT RUNOFF INTO THE WATERSHED IS STILL OF HIGH CONCERN, SCHIFF SAYS TECHNOLOGY IS MAKING IT EASIER. I THINK WE'RE LEARNING HOW TO SATISFY WHAT THEY WANT TO ACCOMPLISH AND STILL TURN IT INTO A BIG CROP. BEFORE TECHNOLOGY. WE ANTICIPATE THEM JUST KEEPING A LID ON OUR YIELDS BUT I THINK WE FIGURED WELL I THINK WITH TECHNOLOGY WE'RE REMOVING THAT LID. WHILE THE STORY OF 2018 IS STILL UNWRITTEN, USED VALUES CONTINUE TO FIND SOLID GROUND. I THINK WE'RE TWO YEARS IN TO USE VALUE STABILIZING. I WOULD SAY PROBABLY A CONTINUATION OF THAT MAYBE WE TEND TO SEE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE YEAR FROM ABOUT ST. PATRICK'S DAY THROUGH OCTOBER. VALUES TEND TO WEAKEN A LITTLE BIT SO IF YOU'RE LOOKING TO BUY THAT WOULD BE MAYBE THE TIME TO DO IT. AND THAT'S CREATING A BETTER OUTLOOK FOR EQUIPMENT DEALERS. YOU DON'T GET A BIG PUSH ON THE TECHNOLGIE THAT WE SEE YOU KNOW INTEGRATING MORE AND MORE FORMER CUOMERS HEARING FROM THEIR NEIGHBROST HAT BAY BE ON THE EADING EDGE USING SOME OF THIS STUF, WANTING TO ADOPT SOME OF THESE PRACTICES IN THEIR OWN OPERATION. PRODUCERS LIKE SCHIFF IN THE EAST ARE  READY TO TAKE 2018 HEAD ON. I SEE BOTH AS A GRAIN BUYER AND AS A PRODUCER WE'RE HAVING OPPORTUNITIES TO LOCK IN GRAIN PRICES THAT. WORK. THEY EITHER GUARANTEE A BREAKEVEN OR A PROFIT. SO I THINK IF THE GUYS KNOW THEIR TRUE COSTS AND KNOW WHEN THEY'RE READY TO SELL BASED ON THEIR FINANCIAL SITUATION THERE'S OPPORTUNITY THERE I'M NOT SCARED OF 18. OPPORTUNITY THAT'S CREATING AN OPTIMISTIC OUTLOOK IN THE NEW YEAR. REPORTING FOR U-S FARM REPORT, I'M TYNE MORGAN.

TEASE
NEXT MONTH, TYNE AND MACHINERY PETE ARE ON THE ROAD TO HIGGINSVILLE MISSOURI . WHEN WE COME BACK, TRACTOR TALES... PLEASE STAY WITH US.

TRACTOR TALES
TRACTOR TALES BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE MOST TRUSTED NAME IN FARM EQUIPMENT, MACHINERY PETE!HEY FOLKS WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES. THIS WEEK WE'RE IN HOBBS MARYLAND AND WE'RE HERE WITH BILL TOWER. AND BILL YOU'VE GOT SOMETHING PRETTY SPECIAL HERE WHY DON'T YOU TELL US ABOUT IT. WELL WE FINALLY A WATERLOO BOY. NEVER THOUGHT I'D EVER BE ABLE TO OWN ONE. BUT WE BOUGHT IT AT A SALE IN BOASS KENTUCKY IN NOVEMBER THE 4TH THERE WAS JOE BEN WILSON AUCTION AND WE BOUGHT IT THERE AND HAPPY WITH IT. HAVE YOU HEADED HOME HERE FOR A LITTLE WHILE. WE'VE HAD IT HOME HERE SINCE THE FIRST PART OF NOVEMBER. WE HAD IT IN FIVE CHRISTMAS PARADES AND WE'VE GOT TO GET IT PAINTED. BUT IT'S IN GOOD SHAPE. IT'S EASY. YEAH.AND NOW IN PARTICULAR THE WATERLOO BOY BILL WITH WITH THE 100 YEAR ANNIVERSARY WAS THAT IMPORTANT TO YOU WHEN YOU WERE BUYING THAT MEAN SOMETHING.YEAH IT DID. BUT IT WAS JUST THE FACT THAT I HAD THE OPPORTUNITY TO BUY WATER. BOY I'VE ALWAYS WANTED ONE. AND NOW I OWN ONE.NOW YOU SAY ALWAYS WANTED ONE YOU UNDERSTAND. BILL JUST BEGAN COLLECTING WHAT 2004.AND THAT'S WHEN I STARTED READING THE HISTORY OF JOHN DEERE AND REALIZE THAT THE WATERLOO BOY WAS THE FOUNDATION OF THE TWO CYLINDER ENGINES. MY MOTHER ALWAYS SAYS FIRST WORDS I EVER SPOKE WAS JOHN DEERE.WHY DO YOU SUPPOSE BILL, WHAT WAS IT ABOUT JOHN DEERE THAT I JUST LIKE THE SOUND OF THE OLD JOHN DEERES. GOING INTO THE AUCTION WHERE YOU DETERMINED TO GET AT ANY PRICE OR DID YOU HAVE TO KNOW HOW TO LIMIT AND THEY ABOUT REACHED IT.AND WHAT DID YOU HOW DID YOU FEEL WHEN YOU GOT IT HOME WE GOT TO SEE IT IN PERSON. I WAS JUST ELATED. I WAS HAPPY.AND YOU WERE SAYING THE WATER BOY WAS WAS ONE YOU'D ALWAYS HAD YOUR EYE ON WANTING TO AND ALWAYS WANTED TO ADD ONE TO THE COLLECTION.NEVER THOUGHT I'D BE ABLE TO. WHAT KIND OF REACTION DO YOU GET WHEN PEOPLE SEE IT. WE'VE HAD A LOT OF REACTION TO IT. WE ACTUALLY HAD FIVE PARADES. WE WON FOR FIRST PLACE TROPHIES. WOW. FOUR BLUE RIBBONS AND TWO MONTHS THAT'S PRETTY GOOD. PRETTY GOOD STUFF. NOW I'M LOOKING FORWARD TO THE SUMMER TAKING IT TO THE DELAWARE STATE FAIR AND ALL THE STEAM SHOWS IN THE AREA.THANKS GREG. WE'LL WRAP UP WITH OUR FROM THE FARM PHOTOS AND A LAST LOOK AT WEATHER.

STAY WITH US.

FROM THE FARM
WELCOME BACK TO THE U.S. FARM REPORT NOW. MIKE IT WAS COLD LAST WEEK AND COLD IN PLACES IN A LOT OF AREAS IT JUST DOESN'T GET THAT COLD.YEAH THAT'S TRUE. THAT BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR PUSHING DEEP INTO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WERE 17 DEGREES IN DALLAS EARLY WEDNESDAY. TWENTY ONE IN NEW ORLEANS. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAYS READINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH WERE COLDER THAN IN NEW YORK AND BOSTON AT THAT POINT. THE TEMPERATURES PUT SOME CITRUS CROPS AT RISK AND FORCED POULTRY GROWERS TO BOOST ENERGY USE TO KEEP HOUSING WARM. A BLOOMBERG REPORT SAYS THE AMOUNT OF NATURAL GAS BURNED FOR POWER IN THE REGION JUMPED BY 25 PERCENT. AND MIKE AS YOU MENTIONED MANY PLACES RECEIVED SNOW ALTHOUGH NOT ALWAYS AS MUCH AS THE MODELS PREDICT.WE'VE GOT THIS PHOTO OFF OF TWITTER FROM LINDSAY KIMBRELL IN NORTHERN TEXAS. SHE SAYS I DON'T WORRY ABOUT THEM THEY'LL SURVIVE THE SNOW OF 2018. I THINK YOU CAN SEE JUST THAT TENGE OF WHITE. THEY'RE STILL CLOSE RIGHT THERE IN THE GRASS AT THEIR HOUSE. NOW IF YOU HAVE A PICTURE OF VIDEO YOU'D LIKE TO SEND IN PLEASE SEND THOSE TO MAILBAG US FARM REPORT.COM OR CHECK US OUT ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AND HOPEFULLY IT WARMS UP A LITTLE BIT THIS WEEK. YEAH IT'S LOOKING WARMER FROM COAST TO COAST ACTUALLY COMPARED TO WHAT WE'VE SEEN. ALL RIGHT I'LL TAKE IT.

CLOSE
THANK YOU FOR JOINING US HERE ON U.S. FARM REPORT I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS TYNE MORGAN WILL BE BACK NEXT WEEK. THANKS FOR WATCHING. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND. IN FARM COUNTRY.

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