USFR Weekly Recap - January 27-28, 2018

January 27, 2018 03:30 AM
 
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TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
JANUARY 27-28, 2018

HEADLINES

WELCOME TO THIS SPECIAL EDITION OF U.S. FARM  REPORT FROM THE ANNUAL TOP PRODUCER SEMINAR  IN CHICAGO, ILLINOIS. I'M TYNE MORGAN, AND HERE'S  WHAT'S IN STORE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. A TINY TRADE SPAT OR SOMETHING BIGGER? <IF IT GETS TO STEEL IF IT GETS TO ALUMINUM THAT RAMPS UP THAT WHOLE  TRADE TARIFF AND ALL OF THE SUDDEN SOYBEANS COME IN PLACE> U-S SLAPPING A TARIFF ON GOODS FROM CHINA, AND  IT'S THE RIPPLE EFFECT ON U-S AGRICULTURE CAUSING  CONCERN.  THE PRESIDENT ROLLING OUT HIS INFRASTRUCUTRE  PLAN, WITH A LARGE CHUNK DEDICATED TO RURAL.  ANOTHER MEGA MERGER COULD BE IN THE WORKS-- THIS TIME, IT'S GRAIN BUYERS THAT COULD SEE A  SHAKEUP.  AND MEET THE 2018 TOP PRODUCER OF THE YEAR... <"I KIND OF SEE BAD TIMES AS OPPORTUNTIIES TO BE CREATIVE AND  CONTINUE TO GROW BUT GROW SMART. DON'T JUST BE GROWING TO BE  GROWING. IT HAS TO MAKE SENSE."> WE HEAD TO NORTH CAROLINA TO MEET HTE HOWEY  FAMILY. <U.S. FARM REPORT - BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE DEPENDABLE, LONG  LASTING, CHEVY SILVERADO.>

TRADE, TARIFFS
NOW FOR THE MARKET RELATED NEWS, A TRADE SPAT  WITH CHINA IS HEATING UP THIS WEEK AFTER THE  PRESIDENT SLAPPED NEW TARIFFS ON CERTAIN  CHINESE GOODS. IT'S OVER WASHING MACHINES AND ENERGY FELLS AND  PANELS. MONDAY, THE U-S ISSUED A TARIFF ON THOSE  PRODUCTS, WITH WASHING MACHINES NOW SEEING A  50 PERCENT TARIFF INTO THE U-S.THE ADMINSTRATION NOTIONING THAT THIS IS THE  FIRST MAJOR STEP TO PLACE TRADE BARRIERS TO  PROTECT AMERICAN MANUFACTURERS.  IN A STATEMENT, U-S TRADE REPRESENTATIVE ROBERT  LIGHTHIZER SAYING, QUOTE   "THE PRESIDENT'S ACTION MAKES CLEAR AGAIN THAT THE TRUMP  ADMINISTRATION WILL ALWAYS DEFEND AMERICAN WORKERS, FARMERS,  RANCHERS, AND BUSINESSES," A POSSIBLE TRADE DISPUTE WITH CHINA WHILE  UNCERTAINY RISES OVER THE OUTCOME OF NAFTA. THIS WEEK, TRADE OFFICIALS HOSTING THE NEXT  ROUND OF NEGOTIATIONS IN MONTREAL.  WHILE NAFTA NEGOTIATIONS WENT ON THIS WEEK, THE  PRESIDENT SAYS HE WOULD CONSIDER RE-ENTERING  THE TRANS PACFIC PARTNERSHIP TRADE PACT. BUT HE SAYS ONLY IF THEY COULD GET A  SUBSTANTIALLY BETTER TRADE DEAL THAN WHAT WAS  STRUCK UNDER THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION.  HIS COMMENTS DURING AN INTERVIEW AT THE WORLD  ECONOMIC FORUM IN DAVOS COME JUST AFTER THE  REMAINING 11 COUNTRIES OF THE DEAL CAME TO A  NEW AGREEMENT THIS WEEK. THIS WEEK, U-S TREASURY SECRETARY STEVEN  MNUCHIN SAID HE WELCOMED A WEAKER U-S DOLLAR,  AS IT WOULD BENEFIT THE COUNTRY'S TRADE. THOSE COMMENTS SPARKED A 2 PERCENT DECLINE NI  THE DOLLAR INDEX. BUT LATER THIS WEEK DURING AN INTERVIEW,  PRESIDENT TRUMP HE THINKS MNUCHIN'S COMMENTS  WERE TAKEN OUT OF CONTEXT AND THAT THE  ADMINISTRATION SHOULDNT' DETERMINE THE  DIRECTION OF THE DOLLAR. BUT TRUMP DID ADD THAT TEH DOLLAR IS GETTING  STRONG AND STRONGER AND THAT ULTIMATELY HE  WANTS TO SEE A STRONG U-S DOLLAR. 

POSSIBLE ADM, BUNGE MERGER
MEANWHILE, ON U-S TURF, THERE'S ANOTHER POSSIBLE  MEGA MERGER IN THE GRAIN SECTOR, BUT THIS TIME, WITH GRAIN BUYERS.  BLOOMBERG REPORTING, ADM IS ASKING BUNGE FOR  TALKS. A COMBINED ADM-BUNGE WOULD CREATE  AN  INTERNATIONAL NETWORK OF BARGES AND MARINE  TERMINALS, AND A MAJOR INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISE  WITH FACTORIES AND REFINERIES. BOTH ADM OR BUNGE HAVE DECLINED TO COMMENT ON  THEIR POTENTIAL MERGER.

WEATHER
THOSE ARE THE HEADLINES...METEOROLOGIST MIKE  HOFFMAN JOINS IS BACK IN OUR SOUTH BEND STUDIOS  WITH A CHECK OF WEATHER. MIKE, A BLIZZARD THIS  WEEK THAT THEN PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST-- ANY  MAJOR WEATHER MAKERS ON THE HORIZON FOR NEXT  WEEK?  TYNE JUST THE NEXT SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR THAT COMES LATE THIS WEEK  WE'LL SHOW YOU THAT COMING UP IN THE MEANTIME DROUGHT MONITOR  CONTINUES TO LOOK WORSE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES YOU  CAN SEE FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI ARKANSAS BACK INTO THE  PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS BACK INTO THE FOUR CORNERS  REGION EVEN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. IT IS JUST A LOT MORE COLOR ON  THIS MAP THAN THERE WAS SIX MONTHS AGO. BUT LET'S GO BACK A  MONTH AND YOU CAN SEE THERE IS LESS ORANGE OR MIGHT HAVE BEEN  JUST AS MANY AREAS AT LEAST ON THE DRY SIDE BUT AS WE'VE GONE  THROUGH OVER THE LAST MONTH YOU CAN SEE WEEK BY WEEK WE'VE  JUST EXPANDED THE ORANGE AND RED AREAS WHICH ARE THE SEVERE  AND EXTREME DROUGHTS WHICH IS SOMETHING WE HAVE TO BE  CONCERNED ABOUT AS WE HEAD INTO THIS GROWING SEASON. ALL RIGHT  LET'S GO WEEK OR DAY BY DAY THIS WEEKEND SEE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW  IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKES AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY ON  MONDAY CHILLIER AIR IN THE SOUTHEAST SOME SHOWERS AND  THUNDERSTORMS OVER FLORIDA. NEXT STORM SYSTEM COMING INTO THE  PACIFIC NORTHWEST A LOT OF THAT'S NORTH INTO CANADA WITH THE SNOW  THERE BUT SOME RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND THAT WILL BE THE LAST  SYSTEM COMING INTO THE WEST COAST FOR A WHILE BY WEDNESDAY  THAT'S MOVING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH  THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH SOME SNOW BEHIND THAT LITTLE BIT OF RAIN  OUT AHEAD OF IT. STILL CHILLY TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BUT LOTS OF  SUNSHINE AND THEN BY FRIDAY HERE'S THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE COLD AIR  GOING ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.  FRIGID AIR POURING ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER. THERE WILL BE RAIN  AND SNOW THROUGHOUT THE NORTHEAST. EASTERN LAKES WILL BE MAINLY  SNOW. THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND JUST A STATIONARY FRONT  OUT IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WE'LL CHECK OUR LONGER RANGE  FORECAST COMING UP ON OUR NEXT HALF HOUR.  THANKS, MIKE.

TEASE
WHEN WE COME BACK, IT'S A STRONG  LINEUP OF GUESTS TO DISCUSS THE MARKETS,  INCLUDING SOME TALK ON TRADE.  CHIP FLORY, MATT BENNETT, PETE MEYER AND BRIAN  SPLITT JOIN ME FROM THE TOP PRDOUCER SEMINAR  NEXT. 

ROUNDTABLE 1
WELCOME BACK TO U.S. FARM REPORT WE'RE HERE FROM A TOP  PRODUCER SEMINAR IN CHICAGO ILLINOIS. EXCITED FOR OUR PANEL THIS  WEEK WE HAVE MATT, PETE, BRIAN AND CHIP TO DIGEST THAT SOME  RECENT NEWS AND LOOK FORWARD TO 2018 POSSIBLY TO EXPECT.. CHIP,  I'LL START WITH YOU, THIS WEEK WHAT MADE HEADLINES WAS THE TRUMP  ADMINSITRATION ISSUING A TARIFF ON CERTAIN GOODS LIKE WASHING  MACHINE AND SOLAR PANELS. BUT WHAT'S NEXT IS REALLY CONCERNING  STILL. WHY DOES THAT CONCERN FOR US AGRICULTURE? YOU DON'T WANT THE WASHING MACHINES AND THE SOLAR PANELS  REALLY DON'T CONCERN ME THAT MUCH. WE'RE NOT GOING TO SEE  RETALIATION OUT OF CHINA ON SOYBEANS FOR THAT. IF IT GETS TO STEEL IF  IT GETS TO ALUMINUM THAT RAMPS UP THAT WHOLE TRADE TARIFF AND ALL  OF THE SUDDEN SOYBEANS COME IN PLACE. SO I DON'T THINK THAT WE  FOUND THE WHOLE LOT OF PRESSURE FROM THE ANTICIPATION OF THAT THIS  WEEK BUT IT'S SOMETHING THAT WE NEED TO KEEP KEEP A CLOSE EYE  ON AND ALL THE TRADE ISSUES WITH THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION. I  MEAN OUR ENEMY HIT TONIGHT THE FACT THAT FLEETING SHIPMENTS HAVE  NOT BEEN IMPRESSIVE. SO FAR. AND SO YOU HAVE SOMETHING LIKE THAT THAT COULD IMPACT  BUYS EVEN A LITTLE BIT. WHAT IMPACT WOULD THAT HAVE ON OUR PRICES  HERE. W WELL WHETHER IT'S PERCEPTION OR REALITY I THINK PERCEPTION IS WHAT  WE'RE GOING TO FOCUS ON WHEN WE TRADE FUTURES AND THE PACE OF  EXPORTS AS WE HAVE RIGHT NOW IS RUNNING WAY BEHIND WHERE WE  NEEDED TO BE. SO AS OF LAST WEEK SALES. TYPICALLY THE FIVE YEAR  AVERAGES WERE 87 PERCENT SOLD OUR WHOLE YEAR TARGET AND WERE  73 PERCENT SO THAT'S 14 PERCENT BEHIND. AND EVEN ON THE  RECENTLY ADJUSTED EXPORT TARGET. IF YOU CARRY THAT FOR THAT EQUALS  ABOUT 300 MILLION BUSHELS NOW WE THROW THAT ON A CARRY OUT.  WE'RE UP AT 770. NOW I DON'T THINK THAT'S THE CASE. WE'RE NOT  GOING TO BE 7 SOME 170 MILLION BUSHELS BUT JUST A THIRD OF THAT  TAKES YOU CLOSE TO 600 MILLION BUSHELS AND THAT'S PROBABLY ABOUT  800 BOARD PRICE.  WHY ARE WE SEEING EXPORT ISSUES THIS YEARWE'RE SEEING EXPORT ISSUES BECAUSE THIS THING IS NOT JUST ABOUT  THE WASHING MACHINES AND THE SOLAR PANELS. IT STARTED WITH AN  INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY WITH CHINESE. THIS STEEL AND ALUMINUM THING  IS COMING DOWN THE PIPE. SO THESE ALL LITTLE BURRS UNDER THE  SADDLE I DON'T REALLY WORRY ABOUT THAT MUCH TO BE HONEST WITH YOU  THOUGH TO BRIAN'S POINT AND WE DO HAVE A CARRY OUT OF OVER 600  THIS YEAR OVER 700 NEXT YEAR. I DON'T THINK IT MATTERS PRICE WISE  BECAUSE THE FACT OF THE MATTER IS IS CHINA IS STILL GOING TO IMPORT  THREE AND A HALF PERCENT MORE BEANS. THEY DID THE PREVIOUS  YEAR. THEY'RE JUST GOING TO GET IT FROM SOMEPLACE ELSE. AND WE  BELIEVE THAT THE PRICE THE BORDER TRADERS IS RELEVANT TO THE TOTAL  GLOBAL BALANCE SHEET. IT'S UNFORTUNATE IF THEY'RE NOT BUYING IT FROM  US. BUT I STILL THINK THAT THAT THE BALANCE SHEET IS GOING TO SHOW  THAT THE CHINESE ARE STILL BUYING BEANSWHETHER THEY DO OR NOT I MEAN THE UNCERTAINTY IS THERE RIGHT NOW  AND UNCERTAINTY AROUND NAFTA AS WELL. I MEAN WE HAD OUR NEXT  ROUND OF TALKS IN MONTREAL THIS THIS WEEK. I MEAN I KNOW IT'S KIND  OF AT THIS POINT IS THAT IF YOU WOULD HAVE TO COMPARE WHAT DO YOU  THINK WOULD HAVE THE BIGGEST DEVASTATION TO U.S. AGRICULTURE IF  WE WITHDREW FROM NAFTA OR IF WE WERE IN A TRUE TRADE DISPUTE  WITH CHINA AND IT WAS IMPACTING OUR EXPORTS. WELL IF YOU IF YOU LOOKED AT OUR EXPORT SITUATION HAS BEEN YOU  KNOW I'VE BEEN TALKING FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS. IF YOU WANT TO  SEE THIS DOWN TO AND GET EVEN WORSE FOR US AGRICULTURE TAKE  CHINA OUT OF THE EQUATION OR SOYBEANS AND SELL THEM AFTER WOULD  BE DEVASTATING. YOU KNOW I THINK THE THING ABOUT NAPA IS  MEXICO'S GOING TO HAVE TO SPEND QUITE A BIT OF MONEY BUYING  BUYING CORN. THEY DON'T BUY IT FROM US. IT'S GOING TO COST THEM A  FAIR AMOUNT OF MONEY. RIGHT NOW THE CHINESE ARE PAYING A LITTLE  BIT MORE FOR SOYBEANS AND MORE RESILIENT WHAT THEY ARE. THE  BOTTOM LINE IS I DON'T THINK THEY'RE GOING TO DO THAT FOREVER UNLESS  WE JUST CONTINUE TO GET INTO TRADE DISPUTES WITH THEM. YEAH. PLUS THERE'S NO FEAR FACTOR FROM THE IMPORTERS RIGHT NOW.  RIGHT. WE'VE GOT THIS BIG CARRY OVER SOYBEANS PROJECT. WE'VE GOT  THE BIG CARRY OVER OF CORN PROJECTED THEY DON'T HAVE THE DOLLARS  GOING DOWN. WE WOULD THINK THAT THAT WOULD ENCOURAGE MORE  BUYING. BUT IT DOESN'T UNTIL THE DOLLAR STARTS GOING BACK TO THE  UPSIDE. SO THERE'S NO FEAR FACTOR OUT THERE FROM THE IMPORTERS TO  EXTEND THEIR COVERAGE. WE GOT TO GET THEM TO EXTEND THEIR  COVERAGE AS SOON AS WE DO THAT THEN ALL OF A SUDDEN I THINK OUR  NUMBERS START TO LOOK BETTER. YOU KNOW PETE REAL QUICK WHAT IMPACT COULD WE SEE DOWN THE  ROAD THOUGH YOU KNOW WE TALKED LAST TIME WHEN WE TALKED ABOUT  CHINA INCREASING THEIR ETHANOL BLENDS AND YOU KNOW THAT COULD  BE GOOD NEWS FOR US OR MAYBE IN 2019 2020. BUT IF WE HAVE  SOME TYPE OF ISSUE WITH CHINA I MEAN IT COULD THAT IMPACT THAT  THE CHANCES THAT WE DO ACTUALLY SEE SOME REAL BENEFITS FOR  CURRENT PRICES FOR OUR POSITION ON THAT IS THAT IT'S GOING TO BE  DIFFICULT. WE'RE TALKING ABOUT E 10 BY 2020 OUR POSITION IS THAT IN ORDER TO  GET THE INFRASTRUCTURE BUILT TO E5 BY 2022. SO HOPEFULLY COOLER  HEADS WILL PREVAIL AT THAT POINT BUT THERE'S NO QUESTION THEY'RE  GOING TO NEED THE CORN. BUT YOU KNOW THEN OF COURSE YOU HAVE  TO PUT INTO THE EQUATION THE FACT THAT THEY HAVE ANYWHERE  BETWEEN 100 AND 150 MILLION METRIC TONS SITTING ON THE GROUND  THERE WHICH ACCORDING TO OUR SOURCES IS STILL ROTATED PRETTY WELL  SUCH A DECENT SHAPE EVEN THOUGH I FIND THAT HARD TO BELIEVE. SO  THEY WILL HAVE IT'S GOING TO TAKE A LITTLE WHILE. THIS IS NOT  SOMETHING IS GOING TO GET US OUT OF THIS FUNK IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36  MONTHS IN MY OPINION. BRIAN WITH EXPORTS BEFORE WE NEED TO GO TO BREAK WE DO HAVE A  LOT OF GROUND TO MAKE UP. DO YOU THINK THERE'S STILL TIME TO DO  THAT. I DO. YOU KNOW WITH THE RECENT MOVE IN THE DOLLAR AND WE  MENTIONED SHE MENTIONED THAT BUT WE'VE ALSO SEEN THE MOVE IN  THE BRAZILIAN SO YOU KNOW WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE RACE BETWEEN  THE REALE ON THE DOLLAR. DOES. I DO THINK THAT MAKES US MORE  COMPETITIVE. AND SO SEASONALLY THERE IS TYPICALLY A DECLINE IN  SOYBEAN SALES MOVING FORWARD. BUT YOU KNOW MAYBE LOOKING AT  IT OPTIMISTICALLY OF SALES WEREN'T FRONT END LOADED EARLY IN THE  MARKETING YEAR THAT MAYBE THE TIMING OF IT JUST GOT A LITTLE  SCREWED UP YOU KNOW CHINA HAS BEEN BUYING WHAT I THINK IS THE  BETTER BEING THE PROTEIN CONTENT OF OUR SOYBEAN THIS YEAR WAS  TIED FOR THE LOWEST AS FAR AS WE'VE BEEN KEEPING TRACK OF PROTEIN  CONTENT. SO THEY'VE BEEN BUYING BEANS. MAYBE THEY COME BACK  TO US AND TIMING IS OFF. ALL RIGHT GOOD DISCUSSION SO FAR BUT WE DO NEED TO TAKE A QUICK  BREAK. AND THEN WE'LL BE BACK WITH MORE US FARM REPORT IN JUST A  MOMENT.

ROUNDTABLE 2
WELCOME BACK. U.S. FARM REPORT, YOU KNOW WE SAW SOME  POSITIVE PRICE ACTION THIS WEEK. GET THE. DOES IT MEAN ANYTHING  WAS FUNDAMENTALLY BASED ON WHAT'S GOING ON.NO IT DOES MEAN SOMETHING BECAUSE IT'S GIVING US AN  OPPORTUNITY ON THE NEW GRUBBINESS WORLD OVER 10 BUCKS ON THE  NEW CRAB BEANS. IF THERE'S ANYBODY IN HERE THAT'S NOT AT LEAST  MAKING SOME SALES ON 20 18 BEANS OVER TEN BUCKS CHECK  YOURSELF. WHY. WHY ARE YOU NOT WHAT ARE YOU  WAITING FOR. AT THAT POINT WE'VE GOT SOME STRENGTH IN THE  NEW CROP CORN RECENTLY. I DON'T KNOW IF IT'S GOOD ENOUGH TO GET  EXCITED ABOUT MAKING SOME SALES BUT THIS YEAR A 40 50 CENT  BROWNLEY FROM THE JANUARY 12 VOSER YEAH WE BETTER BE  PAYING ATTENTION TO THAT AND BEING IT'S IMPORTANT WHEN YOU LOOK AT  IT YOU KNOW WHEN YOU LOOK AT SOME OF THESE PRICES IT'S HARD TO  FOCUS ON 2018 WHEN YOU STILL HAVE A LOT OF CROP LEFT FROM LAST YEAR  OR THE YEAR BEFORE THAT. SO WHAT IS YOUR ADVICE FOR SOME OF THOSE FARMERS THAT CAN'T LOOK  THAT FAR AHEAD RIGHT NOW BECAUSE THEY STILL HAVE SOME CROP TO  MOVE. WELL I THINK THE LAST TIME I WAS ON CHIPS RADIO PROGRAMMING MY SENTIMENT ON JHALAK HORN WAS 360 TO 380 YEP THAT'S THE VALUE  OF THIS PRODUCT RIGHT NOW AND I DON'T THINK THERE'S A COINCIDENCE  THAT YESTERDAY BEING A WEDNESDAY WE HAD A LOT OF STRONG BUYING  THE COMMITMENT TO TRADE BEFORE WE GET ON FRIDAYS OR AS OF  TUESDAY'S CLOSE. SO HERE ON WEDNESDAY TO COMING IN BY STRONG  WE'RE TAKING MARKET THROUGH SOME MOVING AVERAGES. I'M LOOKING  FOR 380 IS A SPOT WHERE YOU NEED TO PAY ATTENTION TO GET SMALL  MARKETING DONE PROBABLY RATHER AGGRESSIVELY. YOU KNOW WHEN WE WERE TALKING ABOUT THE FAVORABLE SLEEVING  PRICE IS KEY AND YOU THINK AT THIS POINT THAT THAT IS FINE AS IT  WORRIES ME IT'S BUYING ANGER'S. I THINK IT IS BUYING ACREAGE. I THINK THAT BY THE GRACE OF GOD IF WE  GOT DECEMBER FUTURES TO AVERAGE OVER FOUR DOLLARS IN THE MONTH  OF FEBRUARY FOR CROP INSURANCE SETTING YOU'D LOSE ALL THOSE ACRES.  BUT AT THE MOMENT I'M A LITTLE BIT NERVOUS THAT IT'S GOING TO BUY 91  MILLION ACRES OF BEANS AND I THINK THAT'S A LITTLE BIT TOO MUCH. NINETY ONE MILLION IS THAT A NEW ONE AND A HALF IS. I'LL THROW MY  HEAD. LARRY I THINK THAT IN 91 AND 91 AND A HALF YEARS SEEMS THAT I FEEL  PRETTY STRONGLY THAT SOYBEAN ACRES ARE GOING TO ECLIPSE CORN  ACRES THIS YEAR ON A PLANTED BASIS I THINK IN 91.5 I COULD GO ALONG  WITH THAT ALL DAY I THINK THAT IF I AM PRODUCERS OF THAT IS MADE THAT  DECISION IS I'M GOING TO GO HEAVY BEANE'S WHICH WE'VE HEARD  THAT FROM A LOT OF PRODUCERS SINCE LAST FALL YOU GOT TO ASK YOURSELF  WHAT'S THE REASON THAT YOU'RE MAKING THAT DECISION. WELL THE  DECISIONS MADE BY PRICE RIGHT. SO IF YOU'RE NOT LOCK IN PRICE AND  YOU'RE ASKING FOR TROUBLE. WHO KNOWS WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN.  LET'S SAY WE GET SURPRISED AND IT'S EVEN MORE THAN 90 WHEN THAT  HAPPENS. I THINK THAT FOR THE TIME BEING YOU'RE GOING TO BE  WISHING THAT YOU HAD A FEW MORE BEANS SOLD. 10.10 IS A GIFT IN  MY OPINION THAT'S A SABAI DOLLAR PRICE. AND I HAVE. OH YES RIGHT. SO IT'S BEEN ON THAT A LITTLE BIT MORE FOR NINETY ONE AND A HALF OR  MORE AND WE HAVE DECENT UNITS LIKE THESE FARMERS CONTINUE TO  DO EVERY SINGLE YEAR. WHAT DOES THAT TAKE TO CARRY OUT ITS  EARNINGS. WELL YOU KNOW THE CARRY OUT IS GOING TO GROW AND FROM A PRICE  PERSPECTIVE IT'S A RERUN OF LAST YEAR WITH THE PRICE OF BOTH NEW  CROP CORN AND SOYBEANS RELATIVE TO LAST YEARS VALUES ARE ALMOST  LOCKSTEP. SO RIGHT NOW THIS MARKET'S ABOVE 10 DOLLARS AND WE  HAD THE SAME PRICE VALUES LAST YEAR WE HAD THE MARCH PLANNING  INTENTION REPORT AND THAT WAS THE THING THAT SEALED THE DEAL TO A  DOWNTREND IN JUNE. SO I THINK IT'S PERTINENT RIGHT NOW YOU HAVE TO  HAVE SOME KIND OF PROTECTION FROM YOUR CROP SOYBEANS YOU  KNOW EACH YEAR. WE TALK ABOUT POSSIBLE WEATHER AROUND YOU SEE THAT WET RALLIED  TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THAT AT LEAST ONE POSSIBLY MARKET. YOU'RE  GREAT AT PROFITABLE LEVELS. DO YOU THINK THAT STORY'S CHANGING  CONSIDERING WHAT WE SAW HAPPEN. NO NO I DON'T THINK THAT STORY'S CHANGING AS A MATTER OF FACT ON  THE SOYBEANS RIGHT NOW WHERE I THINK WE'RE INTO A WEATHER RALLY  WITH THE CONDITIONS DOWN IN ARGENTINA THE PERSISTENT RAINS IN  CENTRAL BRAZIL. PETE DO YOU AGREE WITH THAT. YEAH THE LAST THE LAST RALLY WHEN WE  TRADED UP IN EARLY DECEMBER WE TRADED AS HIGH AS 10 24 10 25  BASIS NOVEMBER FUTURES. THE CASH CONTACTS THAT WE TALKED TO  SAID IT WAS THEIR BUSIEST DAY IN TWO YEARS. SO FARMERS ARE OUT  THERE SELLING AT THOSE PRICES. I THINK YOU SEE THE SAME WALL  ABOVE 10 20. I DON'T WORRY THAT MUCH ABOUT ARGENTINA DRYNES OR  BRAZILIAN WETNESS AS I TAKE THE TWO COUNTRIES TOGETHER AND I  THINK THAT THAT I THINK BRAZIL COULD STILL BE 114 EVEN IF ARGENTINA IS  52. OKAY WE'RE AT 166 AND THERE WE ARE YOU KNOW THE ARGENTINA  SITUATION HAS PLAYED OUT IN MEAL AND THAT'S WHY YOU'RE HAVING A  ADMINISTRATION I'M SORRY BRAZIL CAN'T BE 114. OH YES CAN. MATT REAL QUICK SWITCHING GEARS THE TARGET SWITCHING GEARS I DID  NOT LEAVE MUCH TIME FOR CATTLE. BUT DO YOU THINK WE HAVE SO  MUCH ROOM TO THE UPSIDE. I REALLY DON'T AT THIS STAGE OF THE GAME I MEAN BUT IT DOESN'T  REALLY MATTER WHAT I THINK I TALK CATTLE SIMILAR TO CORN SOYBEANS  AND IT IF I'M SAFELY IN THE BLACK THEN I NEED TO BE LOOKING TO MOVE  THAT SOMETHING A BUCK TWENTY FIVE AGAIN AS A GIFT TO ME YOU  KNOW BECAUSE IT WASN'T SO LONG AGO WE WERE BACK IN THE TEENS  IN A LOT OF PRODUCERS ARE SAYING JESUS THIS IS TOUGH WITH AN  INVERTED MARKET LIKE THIS. ABSOLUTELY. IF I'M GETTING CLOSE BE  LOCKING THINGS. ALL RIGHT. THANK YOU ALL. WE NEED TO TAKE A QUICK BREAK. WE'LL GET  THE CLOSING THOUGHTS WHEN WE COME BACK. ONE U.S. FARM  REPORT.

MARKETS NOW
WELCOME BACK TO THIS FARM REPORT. TIME NOW FOR CLOSING  THOUGHTS.. CHIP OK. 2018 IS GOING TO STINK. 2019 IS GETTING BETTER. 2020 IS I THINK  IS GOING TO BE PRETTY GOOD ON THE REVENUE SIDE. IT'S A PROCESS  GUYS IT'S A PROCESS. GIVE IT A LITTLE BIT MORE TIME. THINGS ARE  GETTING BETTER. ALL RIGHT BRIAN KEEP YOUR HEAD IN THE GAME RIGHT NOW. THE IS  DOING A LOT LIKE WHAT IT DID LAST YEAR. WE MADE SOME HIGHS IN  FEBRUARY AND CORN THE NEXT THREE WEEKS ARE VERY IMPORTANT TWO  YEAR OLD CROP CORN MARKETING OPTIONS ARE EXTREMELY CHEAP IF YOU  DON'T KNOW HOW THEY WORK FIND SOME WAY TO TEACH YOU ABOUT  THEM AND USE THEM AS A TOOL. WHETHER YOU PRODUCE WIDGETS CORN OR SOYBEANS THERE IS AN  EMOTIONAL ATTACHMENT TO IT. I GET IT. 2018 IS THE YEAR TO ADD  OBJECTIVITY TO YOUR MARKETING PLAN. YOU NEED TO HAVE AN  OBJECTIVE MARKETING PLAN. SO FOR ME JUST MAKE YOUR MOVE YOU  NEED TO ADD OBJECTIVITY. GO GET SOME FRIENDS GET A BOARD OF  ADVISERS GET A BOARD IF YOU NEED SOME HELP. CALL ME BECAUSE  I'VE GOT NOTHING TO SELL YA. I THINK THAT WHENEVER WE LOOK AT 2018 THERE'S OPPORTUNITIES STILL  YOU KNOW THERE IS SCARY IN THE MARKET. I THINK THAT THE CORN 

MARKET YOU KNOW IT'S PROBABLY LIMITED UPSIDE. THE BOTTOM LINE IS  IF I CAN MAKE MONEY I'LL PROBABLY NEED TO BE GOING AHEAD  MAKING SALES WHENEVER IT COMES TO SOYBEANS. YOU KNOW I THINK  WE'RE SAFELY IN THE BLOCK WITH ABOUT EVERYONE THAT WE'RE LOOKING  AT. AND IF I'M NOT LOCKING IN A GOOD CHUNK OF THOSE ARE GOING TO  ASK MYSELF WHY.ALL RIGHT. THANK YOU ALL FOR BEING HERE. WE APPRECIATE IT. STAY  WITH US. JOHN PHIPPS JOINS US FROM TOP PRODUCER SEMINAR.

JOHN’S WORLD
WELCOME BACK. AS I MENTIONED WE'RE HERE TOP PRODUCER SEMINAR AND OUR GOOD FRIEND JOHN PHIPPS JOINS US AND JOHN TALKING A LITTLE BIT OFF CAMERA. YOU KNOW WE'VE BEEN FOLLOWING THAT I CAN BUY CHANGES AND I CAN OF APPLICATIONS THIS YEAR. AND I UNDERSTAND YOU ACTUALLY WENT THROUGH TRAINING JUST THIS WEEK JUST LIKE A OTHER GUYS I GOT MY DICAMBA APPLICATOR TRAINING DONE THIS WEEK. AND EVEN THOUGH I'VE USED THIS HERBICIDE IN VARIOUS FORM FOR YEARS I UNDERSTAND THE IMPORTANCE OF DUE DILIGENCE ON THE PART OF FARMERS. IT'S NOT CYNICAL TO SAY HOWEVER THIS TRAINING WILL BE OVERRIDDEN BY CIRCUMSTANCES MORE THAN A FEW FARMERS AND OTHER EXPERTS HAVE ESTIMATED THE EXACTLY RIGHT CONDITIONS FOR APPLYING DICAMBA WILL NOT OCCUR FREQUENTLY AND ALMOST CERTAINLY NOT OFTEN ENOUGH TO GET ALL THOSE ACRES SPRAYED. SO UNDOUBTEDLY SOME OF US WILL BE DOING THE BEST WE CAN TO BALANCE THE RULES WITH THE NEED TO GET THE JOB DONE ON TIME. FARMERS ARE FRUSTRATED BY THIS INEFFICIENCY TO SAY THE LEAST. BUT THERE IS ONE WAY I CAN THINK OF TO MANAGE THIS CHALLENGE EFFECTIVELY. SIMPLY SAY THOSE THREE LITTLE WORDS MEN FIND SO HARD TO SAY NO THEY'RE NOT. I LOVE YOU. ALTHOUGH THAT'S NOT A BAD IDEA. NOR ARE THEY. I DON'T KNOW AS CANADIAN PHILOSOPHER RED GREEN SUGGESTS. NOPE THE PHRASE THAT CAN GET US THROUGH THIS ADJUSTMENT PERIOD IS IT'S MY FAULT. WHAT BECAME CLEAR TO ME DURING THE MEETING THAT WAS IN THE END FARMERS CANNOT EVADE RESPONSIBILITY WHEN USING THESE PRODUCTS. THAT'S WHY NO OTHER ACTION WILL REASSURE YOUR NEIGHBORS AND THE GENERAL PUBLIC LIKE FORTHRIGHT ACKNOWLEDGMENT OF PERSONAL ACCOUNTABILITY. I MAKE SURE MY NEIGHBORS KNOW I WILL MAKE IT RIGHT. BASED ON THEIR WORD ALONE. NO INSURANCE AGENTS OR LAWYERS OR EXTENSION PERSONNEL NEEDED. THEY TELL ME HOW MUCH DAMAGE I CAUSED AND I WON APOLOGIZE AND TO PAY THEM AND IF I CAN'T BEAR THAT RISK I HAVE NO BUSINESS USING THOSE PRODUCTS. SUSTAINABILITY. WHAT EVER THAT BUZZWORD MEANS IS ALL VERY WELL BUT RIGHT NOW IF WE WANT TO DEMONSTRATE PROFESSIONALISM ACCOUNTABILITY IS WHAT WE NEED. THREE WORDS THAT ARE VERY DIFFICULT TO SAY YES. MAYBE MY HUSBAND IS WATCHING AND HILL AND HE'LL TAKE NO OF THE CARRY THREE WORDS. THANK YOU JOHN WE APPRECIATE IT. WELL PLEASE STAY WITH US. WE HAVE MUCH MORE FROM TOP PRODUCER SEMINAR. THE GOVERNMENT WENT THROUGH A THREE DAY SHUTDOWN. THE MAY BE BACK IN BUSINESS BUT IT'S FAR FROM OVER WHEN IT COMES TO THE BUDGET BATTLE. WE'LL SAT DOWN WITH FARM JOURNAL WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT JIM WEISE MEYER AFTER THE BREAK.

HEADLINES
FROM THE STUDIOS OF FARM JOURNAL BROADCAST,  THIS IS U.S. FARM REPORT. WELCOME BACK TO U-S FARM REPORT THIS WEEKEND  FROM THE TOP PRODUCER SEMINAR IN CHICAGO. WE  HAVE MUCH MORE AHEAD.  IT'S INSIGHT INTO THE TRUMP ADMINSTATION'S HIGHLY  ANTICIPATED INFRASTRUCTURE PLAN-- AND 25  PERCENT OF THAT PLAN DEALS WITH RURAL.  JUST DAYS AFTER THE GOVERMENT REOPENED, WE'LL  SIT DOWN TO GET A PULSE OF WASHINGTON FROM OUR  OWN WASHINGTON CORRESPONDANT JM WIESEMEYER.  AND WE HEAD TO NORTH CAROLINA TO MEET THE 2018  TOP PRODUCER OF THE YEAR

TRUMP’S RURAL INFRASTRUCTURE PLAN
NOW FOR THE HEADLINES...AS THE PRESIDENT  PREPARES FOR HIS FIRST STATE OF THE UNION  ADDRESS ON TUESDAY,  AN  ADVANCE COPY OF THE  TRUMP INFRASTRUCTURE PLAN  CAME TO LIGHT,  SPELLING OUT PRIORITIES AND POSSIBLE WAYS TO PAY  FOR THE NEW PLAN.  LOOKING AT WHAT IMPACTS FARM COUNTRY--- IT'S A  BIG CHUNK, WITH A QUARTER OF PRESIDENT'S PLAN  BUDGETED FOR RURAL INFRASTRUCUTRE. IT OUTLINES A RURAL INFRASTRUCTURE PROGRAM   DESIGNED TO ENCOURAGE INVESTMENT TO ENABLE  RURAL ECONOMIES. . THE PLAN WOULD PRIORITIZE REPAIRS ON ROADS,  BRIDGES, RAIL AND INLAND WATERWAYS. <WE REALLY KIND OF CAME OVER TO PENNSYLVANIA TO ROLL OUT W HAT WE'RE CALLING OUR PRINCIPLES FOR THE FARM BILL.>

FARM BILL PLANS
WHILE A TIMELEINE FOR GETTING THE 2018 FARM BILL  PASSED ISNT CLEAR, USDA OUTLINING MORE THAN 40  OF ITS KEY FARM BILL AND LEGISLATIVE PRINCIPLES  FOR THE YEAR. LOOKING AT THE FARM BIL, USDA RECOMMENDING  MAINTAINING A STRONG SAFETY NET TO, QUOTE, HELP  WEATHER TIMES OF ECONOMIC STRESS. BUT WHAT COULD BE A HIGHLY CONTESTED PORTION  OF THE OUTLINE SURROUND SNAP.  THE FIGHT OVER FOOD STAMPS IS THE AMINSTRATION  PUSHING FOR REQURING SOME FOOD STAMP  RECIPEIENTS TO WORK AS A  AS A PATHWAY TO  RECEIVING THE BENEFITS.  80 PERCENT OF THE FUNDING FOR THE FAM BILL IS DEDICATED TO FOOD PROGRAMS, WHICH INCLUDES  SNAP.

DACA’S POSSIBLE PATH TO CITIZENSHIP
THE WHITE HOUSE THIS WEEK PROPOSING A PATH TO  CITIZENSHIP TO 1.8 MILLION YOUNG UNDOCUMENTED  WORKERS.  THAT WOULD BE IN EXHCANGE FOR 25 BILLION DOLLARS  FOR STRICT IMMIGRATION REFORMS, INCLUDING  BUILDING A WALL. IT WAS THE BATTLE OVER DACA THAT FORCED THE  GOVERNMENT TO SHUT DOWN EARLIER THIS WEEK.  BUT CONGRESS PASSING A STOPGAP MEASURE  MONDAY TO REOPEN THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT. IN  RESPONSE THE STOCK MARKETS GAINED STRENGTH.   THE BANDAID MEASURE ONLY FUNDS THE  GOVERNMENT THROUGH FEBURARY 8TH.

RURAL MAINSTREET INDEX
MEANWHILE, THE LATEST RURAL  MAINSTREET INDEX  SHOWING THE GREATEST CHALLENGE FOR 2018 IS  RISING FARM LOAN DEFAULTS.  THE SURVEY IS A RESULT OF RESPONSES FROM  BANKERS IN A 10 STATE REGION. WHILE THE OVERALL INDEX DECLINE, THE RMI SHOED  THE NEGATIVES ARE GETTING LESS NEGATIVE.  HOWEVER, THE BANKERS SAY THE GREATES THREAT  THIS YEAR IS LOAN DEFAULTS.

MIKE STAMP CHARGED
MEANWHILE, A SAGA SPANNING FIVE YEARS IS NOW IN  THE HANDS OF A FEDERAL COURT. DECATUR MICHIGAN FARMER MIKE STAMP FACES 14  COUNTS OF FEDERAL CHARGES, INCLUDING CROP  INSURANCE FRAUD AND BANKRUPTCY FRAUD.  ACCORDING TO COURT RECORDS,  STAMP MADE FALSE  CLAIMS ABOUT THE NUMBER OF ACRES HE FARMED,  FORGED FALSE DOCUMENTS, AND ALSO WAS IN A MULTI- PERSON FEDERAL CROP INSURANCE FRAUD SCHEME.  TWO OTHER INDIVIDUALS WERE INDICTED ALONG WITH  STAMP... JAMES BECRAFT AND DOUGLAS DIEKMAN.  STAMP WAS ARRESTED IN DECEMBER, BUT RELEASE ON  BOND IN JANUARY. ARRAIGNMENT WAS HELD THIS WEEK  IN MICHIGAN WHERE STAMP PLED NOT GUILTY. COURT 

WEATHER
THAT'S IT FOR NEWS...METEOROLOGIST  MIKE HOFFMAN JOINS US BACK IN THE STUDIO WITH  WEATHER. MIKE, HOW'S FEBRUARY SHAPING UP?  THANKS TYNE I THINK FEBRUARY IS SHAPING UP TO LOOK A LOT LIKE LATE  DECEMBER IN THE FIRST HALF OF JANUARY. WHAT I MEAN BY THAT IS  COLD IN THE EAST WARM IN THE WEST AND HERE HERE'S THE START OF IT  WE'RE GOING TO SHOW WE HAVE A QUICK SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR COMING  FOR A DAY OR TWO HERE INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN THE NORTHEAST BY  WEDNESDAY THAT'S ALREADY LEAVING AGAIN MILDER. TRY AND COME  BACK. BUT HERE'S THE TROUGH THAT WILL START AT ALL. AND I BELIEVE IT  WILL HANG ON THROUGH MUCH OF FEBRUARY AND THAT'S THAT BIG TROUGH  THAT COMES IN AND BRINGS THE SHOTS OF COLD AIR. THERE'S FRIDAY  THAT'S KIND OF THE FIRST SHOT MIGHT RELAX SLIGHTLY BUT LOOK AT THAT  THAT'S STRAIGHT OFF THE ARCTIC CIRCLE AGAIN RIGHT INTO MONTANA AND  NORTH DAKOTA. AND THAT COLD AIR WILL OVERWHELM MOST OF THE  EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. IN  FACT THERE'S MY 30 DAY OUTLOOK BELOW NORMAL. SO EAST OF THE  CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO THE SOUTHEAST. MIGHT STAY NEAR NORMAL  ALONG THE GULF COAST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST  30 TO OUTLOOK FOR PRECIPITATION FROM ARKANSAS THROUGH THE  NORTHEAST AND THE GREAT LAKES ABOVE NORMAL. SAME THING OUT IN  THE NORTHWEST WITH THE SOUTHEAST SOUTHWEST PROBABLY DRIER THAN  NORMAL TYNE.

FARM JOURNAL REPORT
AFTER A TEMPORARY SHUTDOWN, THE GOVERNMENT IS  BACK IN BUSINESS, BUT NOT FOR LONG. DURING THE  TOP PRODUCER SEMINAR HERE IN CHICAGO, I HAD THE  CHANCE TO SIT DOWN WITH FARM JOURNAL  WASHINGTON CORRESPONDANT JIM WIESEMEYER TO  LOOK AT THE POLITICAL LANDSCAPE TODAY AND WHAT TO WATCH TOMORROW.  ALL RIGHT JIM. BIG WEEK FOR THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION THE FIRST EVER  STUDENT UNION FROM PRESIDENT TRUMP. WHAT DO YOU WANT TO HEAR  HIM TALK ABOUT. WELL IT'S IT'S WHAT I WANT HIM NOT TO TALK ABOUT ABOUT WITHDRAWING  FROM NAFTA. BUT HE TENDS TO BE PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WHEN IT  COMES TO THE TRADE POLICY. ON THE PLUS SIDE I THINK HE WILL HAVE  SOME GOOD THINGS TO SAY ABOUT INFRASTRUCTURE INCLUDING THE  INLAND WATERWAYS SYSTEM. SO YOU HAVE TO TAKE THE GOOD WITH THE  BAD. WELL AND WE SAW A SNEAK PEEK OF THAT INFRASTRUCTURE PLAN THIS  WEEK. QUITE A LARGE CHUNK DEDICATED TO RURAL INFRASTRUCTURE.   YEAH AT LEAST 25 PERCENT FROM YOU KNOW MY ACCOUNTING OF IT AND  IT WAS A YOU KNOW KIND OF A DETAILED DOCUMENT THAT SHOULD MAKE  SOME OF THE LAWMAKERS CONTENT THAT THEY JUST HAVE TO FILL IN THE  IMPORTANT BLANK OF HOW DO YOU FUND. STATE OF THE UNION  COMING ON THE HEELS OF A GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN. CONSIDERING HOW DIFFICULT IT WAS TO PASS A CONTINUING RESOLUTION  AND THAT WE HAD TO SHUT THE ENTIRE GOVERNMENT DOWN. HOW  DIFFICULT IS IT GOING TO BE TO ACTUALLY PASS A BUDGET THIS YEAR. WELL THERE IS ALREADY IN A VERY DYSFUNCTIONAL WASHINGTON IT GOT  EVEN MORE DYSFUNCTIONAL IN THE PAST WEEK OR SO RELATIVE TO THE  SHUTDOWN. I THINK MOST OBSERVERS SAID THAT THE DEMOCRATS YOU  KNOW MADE A POLITICAL MISTAKE BY LINKING THE EXTENSION FOR ILLEGAL  IMMIGRANTS TO THE SHUTDOWN OF THE GOVERNMENT AND THEY REALIZE  THAT NOW THEY HAVE TO PICK UP THE PIECES AND IT'LL BE CURIOUS  BECAUSE THE VICTORY THAT THE REPUBLICANS HAD WAS PRIMARILY AS A  RESULT OF TRUMP NOT DOING ANYTHING OF BEING QUIET. NOW THAT'S  VERY HARD FOR OUR PRESIDENT TO DO. SO WE'LL SEE WHETHER OR NOT  HE'S LEARNED FROM THAT EXPERIENCE LET THE NEGOTIATORS NEGOTIATE.BUT ONE THING WE'RE WATCHING WITH THE BUDGET IS HEARD TRYING TO  TIE A SOLUTION TO THIS ONE 1990 A TAX REFORM TRYING TO TIE A FIX I  GUESS YOU COULD CALL IT INTO THE BUDGET RESOLUTION AND GET THAT  PASSED THAT WAY. DO YOU THINK THAT'S A POSSIBILITY.  OH ABSOLUTELY. THE FEAR IS THAT THERE ARE SO MANY ISSUES THAT  WANT TO ATTACH THEMSELVES TO WHAT WE CALL THE OMNIBUS BUDGET  AGREEMENT. BUT YOU REALLY HAVE TO HAVE THAT AGREEMENT TO NOT TO  BEGIN THE FARM BILL DEBATE IN IN THE HOUSE COMMITTEE BECAUSE  THEY HAVE TO HOLD THE OVER ARCHING YOU KNOW BUDGET GUIDELINE.  SO YOU'VE GOT THE ONE NINETY NINE. A FIX IF YOU WILL YOU'VE GOT  POTENTIALLY THE CHANGES FOR COTTON AND DAIRY PROGRAM PROVISIONS  INCLUDED IN THAT. YOU HAVE TO HAVE THE OVERALL YOU KNOW BUDGET  AGREEMENT. SO THERE IS THERE'S A WHOLE SET OF AREAS PLUS MAYBE  EVEN DISASTER AID AS PART OF THAT. WELL JIM CONSIDERING HOW  DIFFICULT IT WAS TO PASS A CONTINUING RESOLUTION HOW DIFFICULT IS IT  GOING TO BE TO GET A FARM BILL HAS THIS YEAR. USUALLY A FARM BILL IS  BIPARTISAN IN NATURE AND WE'RE GOING TO TEST THAT AGAIN. NOW  HERE'S THE HERE'S THE GUIDEPOST THAT I THINK YOUR LISTENERS YOUR  YOUR WATCHERS SHOULD MONITOR. THE THE SMART MONEY IN  WASHINGTON THAT HASN'T BEEN ALL THAT SMART IN THE LAST YEAR. BUT  THEY'RE SAYING THAT IN EARLY MARCH THE HOUSE AG COMMITTEE  SHOULD MARK UP THEIR VERSION OF THE FARM BILL AND HOPEFULLY BY THE  END OF MARCH IT GETS ON THE HOUSE FLOOR.THAT DPENDS PRIMARILY ON WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE THE BUDGET  AGREEMENT AND ALSO FOOD STAMPS WILL HOUSE A COMMITTEE  CHAIRMAN MIKE CONAWAY REPUBLICAN FROM TEXAS HAVE ENOUGH  REFORM IN THE FOOD STAMP PROGRAM TO SATISFY THE CONSERVATIVES  AND THE REPUBLICAN PARTY BUT NOT SO MUCH SO THAT IT DRAWS THE  NEGATIVISM FROM THE DEMOCRATS WHERE COLLIN PETERSON THE  RANKING MEMBER ON THE HOUSE AG PANEL HAS TO HAS TO BACK  AWAY FROM THAT. THE SENATE IS RUNNING LATER MOST PEOPLE THINK  THAT THEY'LL DO THEIR FARM BILL IN THE SPRING AND MAYBE PASS IT ON  THE FLOOR BY THE SUMMER. BUT SOME PEOPLE EVEN SAY THAT'S  OPTIMISTIC

TEASE
WE NEED TO TAKE A QUICK BREAK AND THEN JOHN  PHIPPS JOINS ME AGAIN FROM HERE IN CHICAGO. DON'T  GO ANYWHERE.

CUSTOMER SUPPORT
WELCOME BACK. JOHN PHIPPS JOINS US AGAIN. JOHN WE'VE BEEN  FOLLOWING NAFTA, NAFTA NEGOTIATIONS AGAIN THIS WEEK AND THE  PRESIDENT HEARING THAT THE POSSIBILITY OF HIM WITHDRAWING FROM  NAFTA AGAIN NEEDLESS TO SAY EXILE IS REALLY HIGH IN FARM COUNTRY  RIGHT NOW.  THERE IS MORE COVERAGE OF NAFTA IN THE FARM MEDIA THAN  ANYTHING ELSE. AND FOR GOOD REASON AS EVENTS ARE SHOWING THIS  WEEK THE BIG TRADE THE OTHER BIG TRADE DEAL THE TRANS-PACIFIC  PARTNERSHIP WHICH WAS SCUTTLED IMMEDIATELY AFTER PRESIDENT TOOK  OFFICE BEGAN A NEW LIFE AS TPP 11 WITH THE REMAINING 11  COUNTRIES REACHING A NEW AGREEMENT. THERE IS A CONNECTION  BETWEEN WHAT HAPPENS TO NAFTA AND WHAT HAPPENED TO THE  TPP. THE FUNDAMENTAL TERMS HAMMERED OUT BETWEEN THE TPP  11 ARE EXPECTED TO ACT AS STRONG GUIDELINES FOR ANY NEW NAFTA  2.0 THAT MIGHT EMERGE. THE REASON IS SIMPLE. SINCE MEXICO AND  CANADA ARE GEARING UP TO MEET TPP REGULATIONS THERE IS STRONG  RESISTANCE TO BUILDING A DIFFERENT SET OF TRADE RULES FOR THE US.  THIS HOLDS TRUE FOR THE OTHER 11 MEMBERS AS WELL IN TRADE  NEGOTIATIONS THE FIRST TO REACH COMPLETION HAS A POWERFUL  INFLUENCE ON ANY FOLLOWING TRADE PACTS. THIS IS ONE BIG DOWNSIDE  TO COUNTRY OR BILATERAL AGREEMENTS. IF THEY DON'T ESSENTIALLY  MATCH UP WITH LARGER EXISTING TRADE GROUPS THERE IS A  CONSIDERABLE COST ADDED TO DOING BUSINESS. FOR EXAMPLE MEXICO  PROBABLY WILL WANT ONE STANDARD FOR SHIPPING FRESH PRODUCE TO  CHINA AND ONE FOR THE US NO MATTER HOW MUCH WE INSIST. AT THE  VERY LEAST GETTING A UNIQUE SET OF TRADE RULES MEANS THE U.S. WILL  PROBABLY HAVE TO OFFER SOMETHING TO OFFSET THOSE COSTS. THE  LONGER THE INTERVAL BETWEEN TPP ALLOWS IN THE FINAL RESOLUTION OF  NAFTA THE MORE LIKELY THE RULES ARE GOING TO RESEMBLE TPP  WHICH THE U.S. HAS JUST REJECTED. IN FACT I THINK THIS DEVELOPMENT  JUST MADE QUICK RESOLUTION OF NAFTA A LITTLE HARDER.  THE WORLD IS TRADING AROUND US AND THE LONGER IT GOES ON THE LESS  LEVERAGE WE HAVE HAD JOHN. I'VE HEARD FROM SEVERAL LEADERS  WHO SAY EXACTLY THAT YOU KNOW US WITHDRAWING FROM TPP IS  GOING TO HAVE.  EFFECTS ON FUTURE TRADE NEGOTIATIONS AND SO YOU THINK THERE'S A  DIRECT CORRELATION.  YES BUT IT WAS INTERESTING I SAW A FARMER TWEET AND HE SAID WELL  THE TPP I'M SORRY ABOUT THAT BUT THAT WAS A FUTURE. NAFTA IS  RIGHT NOW AND I THOUGHT WE THE FUTURE COUNTS TOO.  YEAH YOU'RE EXACTLY RIGHT. WE'LL SEE HOW NAFTA NEGOTIATIONS END  UP. THANK YOU SO MUCH JOHN. WE APPRECIATE IT. ALL RIGHT WE  NEED TO TAKE A QUICK BREAK. WHEN WE COME BACK WE MEET  TWENTY EIGHT TEAM TOP PRODUCER OF THE YEAR. HE'S A FARMER THAT  SAYS EVEN WHEN TIMES ARE TOUGH THOSE ARE THE TIMES TO FARM  SMARTER AND POSSIBLY EVEN GROW. HIS STORY AFTER THE BREAK. 

PHIPPS ON NAFTA
WELCOME BACK. JOHN PHIPPS JOINS US AGAIN. JOHN WE'VE BEEN FOLLOWING NAFTA, NAFTA NEGOTIATIONS AGAIN THIS WEEK AND THE PRESIDENT HEARING THAT THE POSSIBILITY OF HIM WITHDRAWING FROM NAFTA AGAIN NEEDLESS TO SAY EXILE IS REALLY HIGH IN FARM COUNTRY RIGHT NOW. THERE IS MORE COVERAGE OF NAFTA IN THE FARM MEDIA THAN ANYTHING ELSE. AND FOR GOOD REASON AS EVENTS ARE SHOWING THIS WEEK THE BIG TRADE THE OTHER BIG TRADE DEAL THE TRANS-PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP WHICH WAS SCUTTLED IMMEDIATELY AFTER PRESIDENT TOOK OFFICE BEGAN A NEW LIFE AS TPP 11 WITH THE REMAINING 11 COUNTRIES REACHING A NEW AGREEMENT. THERE IS A CONNECTION BETWEEN WHAT HAPPENS TO NAFTA AND WHAT HAPPENED TO THE TPP. THE FUNDAMENTAL TERMS HAMMERED OUT BETWEEN THE TPP 11 ARE EXPECTED TO ACT AS STRONG GUIDELINES FOR ANY NEW NAFTA 2.0 THAT MIGHT EMERGE. THE REASON IS SIMPLE. SINCE MEXICO AND CANADA ARE GEARING UP TO MEET TPP REGULATIONS THERE IS STRONG RESISTANCE TO BUILDING A DIFFERENT SET OF TRADE RULES FOR THE US. THIS HOLDS TRUE FOR THE OTHER 11 MEMBERS AS WELL IN TRADE NEGOTIATIONS THE FIRST TO REACH COMPLETION HAS A POWERFUL INFLUENCE ON ANY FOLLOWING TRADE PACTS. THIS IS ONE BIG DOWNSIDE TO COUNTRY OR BILATERAL AGREEMENTS. IF THEY DON'T ESSENTIALLY MATCH UP WITH LARGER EXISTING TRADE GROUPS THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE COST ADDED TO DOING BUSINESS. FOR EXAMPLE MEXICO PROBABLY WILL WANT ONE STANDARD FOR SHIPPING FRESH PRODUCE TO CHINA AND ONE FOR THE US NO MATTER HOW MUCH WE INSIST. AT THE VERY LEAST GETTING A UNIQUE SET OF TRADE RULES MEANS THE U.S. WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO OFFER SOMETHING TO OFFSET THOSE COSTS. THE LONGER THE INTERVAL BETWEEN TPP ALLOWS IN THE FINAL RESOLUTION OF NAFTA THE MORE LIKELY THE RULES ARE GOING TO RESEMBLE TPP WHICH THE U.S. HAS JUST REJECTED. IN FACT I THINK THIS DEVELOPMENT JUST MADE QUICK RESOLUTION OF NAFTA A LITTLE HARDER. THE ORLD IS TRADING AROUND US AND THE LONGER IT GOES ON THE LESS LEVERAGE WE HAVE HAD JOHN. I'VE HEARD FROM SEVERAL LEADERS WHO SAY EXACTLY THAT YOU KNOW US WITHDRAWING FROM TPP IS GOING TO HAVE. EFFECTS ON FUTURE TRADE NEGOTIATIONS AND SO YOU THINK THERE'S A DIRECT CORRELATION. YES BUT IT WAS INTERESTING I SAW A FARMER TWEET AND HE SAID WELL THE TPP I'M SORRY ABOUT THAT BUT THAT WAS A FUTURE. NAFTA IS RIGHT NOW AND I THOUGHT WE THE FUTURE COUNTS TOO. YEAH YOU'RE EXACTLY RIGHT. WE'LL SEE HOW NAFTA NEGOTIATIONS END UP. THANK YOU SO MUCH JOHN. WE APPRECIATE IT. ALL RIGHT WE NEED TO TAKE A QUICK BREAK. WHEN WE COME BACK WE MEET TWENTY EIGHT TEAM TOP PRODUCER OF THE YEAR. HE'S A FARMER THAT SAYS EVEN WHEN TIMES ARE TOUGH THOSE ARE THE TIMES TO FARM SMARTER AND POSSIBLY EVEN GROW. HIS STORY AFTER THE BREAK.

TOP PRODUCER OF THE YEAR
EVERY YEAR HERE AT TOP PRODUCER SEMINAR OUR  CORPORATE COUSINS AWARD ONE OPERATION -- TOP  PRODUCER OF THE YEAR. THIS YEAR THE THREE FINALISTS STRETCH FROM  WISCONSIN TO NORTH CAROLINA...WHERE,  INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, IS THE HOME OF THE 2018  WINNER. CLINTON GRIFFITHS SHARES THEIR STORY. HUNGRY COWS MAKE THEIR WAY TO FRANK HOWEY'S  TRUCK... A DAILY TASK FOR THIS NORTH CAROLINA FARMER WHO  IS ANYTHING BUT ROUTINE.  "ONE OF MY NICKNAMES FROM SOME OF MY COMPETITORS IS THAT I'M  'ALL -IN" (LAUGHS). I'M ALWAYS LOOKING TO MAKE THINGS BETTER AND  GROW THE OPERATION,"THAT MAY BE AN UNDERSTATEMENT.  THE MONROE FARMER IS THE DEFINITION OF SELF- MADE, GROWING HIS OPERATION FROM THE GROUND  UP ALONG WITH HIS WIFE AND BUSINESS PARTER,  ALISON.  NOW SHE DIDN'T GROW UP ON A FARM?"  "I'VE TAUGHT HER WELL." LAUGHS "HE TRAINED ME." LAUGHS" BOTH EVENTUALLY CREATING FRANK HOWEY FAMILY  FARMS.... 30 THOUSAND ACRES OF WHEAT, SOYBEANS, CORN,  CATTLE, TIMBER AND SOLAR. MOST OF IT OWNED  OUTRIGHT.  <"WHEN WE FIRST GOT MARRIED, HE SAID, 'HONEY, THIS IS  WHERE I WANT TO TAKE THIS OPERATION.' I SAID, 'OK. IF IT'S IMPORTANT  TO YOU, IT'S IMPORTANT TO ME AND I GOT ON BOARD."> FRANK'S VISION REALLY TOOK OFF AT 16 YEARS OLD WHEN HE LEASED 10 ACRES OF LAND.  AT 18, HE PURCHASED HIS FIRST FARM...THIS FARM.  <"OF COURSE I DIDN'T HAVE MUCH CASH. I GAVE THEM THE CASH I HAD  SAVED UP FROM FARMING AND THE OWNER FINANCED IT,"> HE'S GROWN ACRE-WISE EVERY YEAR SINCE.... IN AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA, SOUTH CAROLINA AND  FLORIDA. DURING GOOD TIMES AND BAD. <"I KIND OF SEE BAD TIMES AS OPPORTUNTIIES TO BE CREATIVE AND  CONTINUE TO GROW BUT GROW SMART. DON'T JUST BE GROWING TO BE  GROWING. IT HAS TO MAKE SENSE."> AND NEVER LOOKED BACK. <"I'VE BOUGHT FARMS OTHER PEOPLE DIDN'T WANT BECAUSE IT LOOKED  ROUGH. BUT I'VE TURNED A SOG'S EAR INTO A SILK PURSE A FEW TIMES."> AS HE'S GROWN, FRANK HAS ADDED NEW FACILITIES.  <"WE HAVE A HIGH CAPACITY DRYER THAT TAKES OUT AND DRIES 50  THOUSAND TO 60 THOUSAND BUSHELS, TAKES OUT 10 POINTS OF  MOISTURE IN 24 HOURS,"> WITH A PRETTY IMPRESSIVE DRYER... <"IT'S THE LARGEST ONE I KNOW OF IN THE SOUTHEAST."> YET, RURAL ENTREPRENEUR IS FACING URBAN  SPRAWL.. CHARLOTTE IS CLOSE AND GETTING CLOSER. <"UNION COUNTY, NORTH CAROLINA IS ONE OF THE FASTEST GROWING COUNTIES I THE NATION"> AS THE CITY MOVES TO THE COUNTRY FARMS ARE IN  THE PATH OF PROGRESS. THEY'VE BEEN ABLE TO SELL AND BUILD BACK ACREAGE  USING A 10-31 EXCHANGE.  <"AND THEN WE TOOK THAT MONEY AND BOUGHT FIVE ACRES FOR EVERY  ONE ACRE WE SOLD."> <IN SOME CASES 10 FOR ONE. IF I HADN'T BEEN  CREATIVE AND EXPANDED, WE WOULD HAVE BEEN SURROUNDED BY  HOUSES AND IT WOULDN'T BE A VIABLE FARMING OPERATION."> AT THE SAME TIME, THE FAMILY PUT CONSERVATION  EASEMENT ON LAND TOO.  <" WE TURNED SOMETHING SOME PEOPLE SAY IS A CURSE INTO A  BLESSING THROUGH CONSERVATION EASEMENT AND 10-31S. TO GROW  THE OPERATION FURTHER AWAY FROM THE URBANIZATION GOING ON  HERE."> AS A WAY TO TO PRESERVE FARMLAND NOW AND FOR  THE FUTURE. <"THAT'S ANOTHER WAY WE'VE BEEN ABLE TO GROW THE OPERATION, BY  PROTECTING LAND FOREVER. THIS ISN'T FOR 100 YEARS BUT FOREVER."> BECAUSE THE FARMER WHOSE GROWTH IS ANYTHING  BUT STANDARD STILL WANTS TO BE A CONVENTIONAL FARMER SO THE NEXT GENERATION AND THE GENERATION  AFTER <SHOW STILL PICTURES OF KIDS> WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITIES TO FEED SUCCESS IN  THEIR OWN FUTURES. THANKS CLINTON. CONGRATULATIONS TO FRANK  HOWEY AND HIS FAMILY. ALSO, CONGRATUATIONS TO  THE OTHER TWO NOMINEES THIS YEAR,  HEARTLAND  FARMS OF HANCOCK, WISCONSIN AND BAILEY FAMILY  FARMS IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. WHEN WE COME BACK, TRACTOR TALES. PLEASE STAY  WITH US. 

TRACTOR TALES
WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES FOLKS!  DURING A PLOW DAY IN  INDIANA WE CAME ACROSS THIS CLASSIC FARMALL.  STILL IN IT'S WORKING  CLOSE, THIS 1935 FARMALL WAS PURCHASED NEW ON THE FARM.   OWNER JOHN REHM TELLS US HIS DAD TRADED A TEAM OF HORSES FOR  NEW TIRES IN 1939. IT WAS ON STEEL WHEELS AND IN 1939. HE TRADED A TEAM OF HORSE  FOR THE TIRES ON THE BACK AND THE RIM AND OUTSIDE HAD NEVER BEEN OVERHAULED AND BEEN AROUND THE FAMILY EVER SINCE. AND NOW IT'S  MINE AND I'M SUPPOSED TO PASS IT ON TO MY SON AND HE IS  SUPPOSED TO PASS IT ON TO HIS SON DAD SAID WE COULDN'T SELL IT. I  BROUGHT IT OUT HERE TODAY TO LIMBERED IT UP A LITTLE BECAUSE WE  DON'T DRIVE ALL THAT MUCH. EVERY YEAR THAT'S A 118 LITTLE GENIUS  WITH THE TRACTOR AND WE GOT TWO ROW CULTIVATOR AT HOME THAT  MOUNTS ON IT. HE BOUGHT THEM ALL NEW 900 AND TWO DOLLARS IN  1936. I WAS BORN IN 39 AND I STARTED TO FARMING IT AND WHEN I WAS  8 YEARS OLD. I MEAN I'D DONE THE FARM ALL OF IT AND MY DAD AND  MOM TALKED IT OVER AND SAID IF I COULD DO THE FARMING ON AFTER  SCHOOL AND ON SATURDAYS I COULD FARM BECAUSE I WASN'T WORKING  ON SUNDAY. MY MOTHER WOULDN'T LET ME WORK ON SUNDAY. THE OLD  TIRES WAS ALL RIGHT THAT HE PUT ON IN 39 BUT THEY JUST ROTTED FROM  AGE. I BOUGHT THESE TIRES OFF RE MILLER IN OHIO THAT SELLS ANTIQUE  TRACTOR TIRES. AND THEIR RADIALS NINE POINT FIVE FORTY RADIAL. AND HE  TOLD ME THAT ISREAL IS THE ONLY PLACE IN THE WORLD HE COULD BUY A  40 INCH TIRE AT THAT TIME. AND I PAID MORE FOR THE TIRES THAN DAD  DID FOR THE WHOLE OUTFIT. THANK YOU. AND THIS WEEK WE'RE SHINING LIGHT ON  THE ROLLIN CENTER UNITED METHODIST CHURCH IN  CLAYTON, MICHIGAN.  THE CONGREGATION IS CELEBRATING ITS 150TH  ANNIVERSARY THIS SUMMER AFTER BEING FOUNDED IN  1868 JUST AFTER THE CIVIL WAR. 

TEASE
STAY WITH US. WE NEED TO TAKE A SHORT BREAK AND  THEN WE HAVE SOME VIEWER PHOTOS TO SHARE WITH  YOU NEXT. 

FROM THE FARM
WELCOME BACK. JOHN JOINS ME NOW TO SHARE SOME VIEWER PHOTOS. OK JOHN LET'S HAVE A FLASHBACK TO A TIME WHEN IT WAS A LITTLE BIT WARMER. THERE WERE LEAVES ON THE TREES AND NO SNOW. THAT WAS ONLY A COUPLE OF MONTHS AGO THIS FALL WHEN BRENNAN MOLDE AND CAPTURED THIS PICTURE OF HER SON GRAHAM CHECKING BEANS LAST FALL IN MICHIGAN. SHE SAYS SHE WATCHES THE SHOW EVERY WEEK. WHAT A CUTE PHOTO AND THANKS FOR SENDING THAT IN. AND THEY HAD A MESS IN OHIO THAT LOOKS VAGUELY FAMILIAR TO ANY GRAIN CART OPERATOR LIKE ME ONLY LARGER AFTER A GRAIN SILO COLLAPSED IN NEW CARLISLE. THAT'S 10000 TONS OF CORN THAT SPILLED ONTO THE ROADWAY. THE FIRE CHIEF IS WARNING RESIDENTS TO GIVE THEM SOME TIME ALL SAY BECAUSE CLEANUP WOULD TAKE MORE THAN A DAY. AND IT'S A VERY SLOW PROCESS AND IF YOU'VE EVER TRIED TO CLEAN UP OF GREEN BAN OR ANYTHING LIKE THAT IT'S JUST SPILLED ON THE GROUND. IT'S THE WORST JOB EVER. I DON'T FEEL TOO BAD ABOUT THE STUFF SPILLING OVER DROP DOWN INTO WITH THE GRAIN HAS SPARKED A LOT OF MESS TO CLEAN UP.

CLOSE
FOR ALL OF US AT U.S. VAR REPORT THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING JOHN AND I FROM THE SPECIAL EDITION AT THE TOP PRODUCER SEMINAR IN CHICAGO. WE HOPE YOU JOIN US NEXT WEEK AS WE WORK TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND EVERYONE. 

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