USFR Weekly Recap - January 28-29, 2017

January 28, 2017 03:30 AM
 
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TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
JANUARY 28-29, 2017


HEADLINES
WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M TYNE MORGAN,  AND HERE'S WHAT WE'RE WORKING ON FOR YOU THIS  WEEKEND. DOW TOPS 20,000... WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR AG?  A SOUTH CAROLINA FARM FAMILY PRODUCING MORE  COMMERCIAL PEACHES THAN THE ENTIRE STATE OF GEORIGA...MEET TITAN FARMS, THE 2017 TOP PRODUCER OF THE  YEAR. SOME COTTON FARMERS SAW THE CROP OF THEIR  LIFE  LAST YEAR... < SOME OF THE GUYS WERE MAKING 5 BALE COTTON.> THAT MOMENTUM IS POURING INTO THE USED  EQUIPMENT MARKET.   MIKE HOFFMAN HAS HIS 90 DAY... AND IN JOHN'S WORLD.  <HOW WE SHOP IS CHANGING HOW WE LIVE> <U.S. FARM REPORT - BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE DEPENDABLE, LONG  LASTING, CHEVY SILVERADO.>

DOW HITS 20,000
NOW FOR THE NEWS THAT MOVED THE MARKETS THIS  WEEK, AFTER TOYING WITH THE 20 THOUSAND MARK  SINCE LATE LAST YEAR, THE DOW FINALLY BROKE  THROUGH 20,000 FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER.  THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL NOT ONLY PUSHED  THROUGH THE 20,000 LEVEN, BUT CLOSED ABOVE IT.  THE S&P AND NASDAQ ALSO PROPELLED TO RECORD  HIGHS, MUCH OF THAT SUPPORTED BY GOOD EARNINGS  REPORTS.  THE LATEST COST STORAGE REPORT SHOWING RED  MEAT SUPPLIES ARE CREEPING HIGHER. USDA SAYS AS OF DECEMBER 31, RED MEAT  SUPPLIES  IN FREEZERS WERE UP 1 PERCENT FROM NOVEMBER.  BUT THAT'S DOWN 2 PERCENT FROM LAST YEAR. FROZEN BEEF STOCKS JUMPED UP 6 POINT 8 PERCENT  FROM LAST MONTH, AND 10 POINT 6 PERCENT FROM  LAST YEAR.  FROZEN PORK STOCKS IS WHERE WE SEE THE  REDUCTION. AT JUST OVER 477 MILLION POUNDS,  THAT'S DOWN 8 PERCENT FROM NOVEMBER, BUT 12 POINT 5 PERCENT LOWER THAN 2015. 

MILK PRODUCTION
MILK PRODUCTION IN THE U-S FOR THE LAST MONTH OF  2016...AND FOR THE LAST QUARTER OF THE  YEAR...PUSHED HIGHER BY MORE THAN TWO PERCENT. THE AG DEPARTMENT SAYS DECEMBER MILK LEVELS  REACHED 16-POINT-EIGHT BILLION POUNDS. BY STATE,  TEXAS WAS THE BIG GAINER. <AGRICULTURE'S NATIONAL FOREACST IS BROUGHT TO YOU BY ILLEVO SEED  TREATMENT FROM BAYER>

WEATHER
THOSE ARE THE HEADLINES...METEOROLOGIST MIKE  HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH WEATHER. MIKE,  SNOWFALL IS FALLING BEHIND IN SOME AREAS OF THE U- S... COULD THEY MAKE SOME OF THAT UP NEXT WEEK? THANKS TYNE WELL PROBABLY BUT I DON'T SEE ANY MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS COME IN AT LEAST OVER THIS COMING WEEK. LET 'S CHECK OUR  DROUGHT MONITOR YOU CAN SEE SOME AREAS HAVE BEEN IMPROVING  IN THE SOUTHEAST AND LOOK TO CALIFORNIA. THAT AREAS CONTINUES TO  SHRINK IN. I AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS  ESPECIALLY EASTERN OKLAHOMA THEREALSO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST. LET 'S GO BACK A MONTH. AND  YOU CAN  SEE THE CHANGE HAS BEEN THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS  OF CALIFORNIA. WE SEE HOW THINGS JUST CONTINUED TO SHRINK IN BOTH  OF THOSE AREAS AS WE'VE SEEN SO MUCH MOISTURE OVER THE PAST  PAST MONTH   IN THOSE TWO PARTS OF THE COUNTRY SO LET 'S GO DAY BY DAY THIS  WEEK ON MONDAY WE'RE LOOKING FOR A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING  THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT LAKES COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE  SOUTHEAST WITH SOME SNOW ALONG THAT AND ALSO SOME SNOW ALONG  THE CANADIAN BORDER THERE IN MONTANA NORTH DAKOTA WITH ANOTHER  SYSTEM KIND OF  DIVING SOUTHWARD   BE A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN THERE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS WITH THE COLDER AIR FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR  MILDER AIR STARTING TO MOVE OUT WEST  AND YOU CAN SEE BY  WEDNESDAY IT 'S TURNING WARM AGAIN IS OUT FRONT KIND OF GOES  BACK NORTHWARD   LITTLE BIT OF SNOW MIGHT BE DEVELOPING WITH AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OUT WEST A WEAK SYSTEM IN THE EAST STILL CAUSING SOME US  SOME SNOW AREAS,YOU CAN SEE THAT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES  NORTHEAST DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY THEN WERE LOOKING  FOR THE AIR COLD AIR STILL CONTINUING A PUSH THIS STATIONARY FRONT WILL  CAUSE SOME SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST.  AND THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DOES COME IN OUT WEST ONCE AGAIN  WAS SOME SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND RAIN THROUGHOUT THE VALLEY.  'S WE'LL BE BACK IN OUR NEXT HALF HOUR. THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST

TEASE
THANKS, MIKE. OUR U-S FARM REPORT MARKETING  ROUNDTABLES ARE ON THE ROAD THIS WEEK FROM THE  TOP PRODUCER SEMINAR IN CHICAGO ILLINOIS. MATT  BENNETT, CHIP FLORY, MARK GOLD AND PETER MEYER  JOIN ME NEXT.  <HERE'S YOUR CHANCE TO WIN A DREAM SPORTS TRIP,  PLUS A $10,000 DONATION FOR A COMMUNCIATY SPACE.  TEXT DREAM TO 31313 TO ENTER TODAY>

ROUNDTABLE 1
<OUR SPECIAL COVERAGE OF TOP PRODUCER SEMINAR  BROUGHT TO YOU BY CHANNEL... CHANNEL SEEDSMEN  AT WORK> WELCOME BACK AS PROMISED. WE'RE HERE THE TOP PRODUCER SEMINAR IN CHICAGO ILLINOIS FOR A MARKETING ROUND TABLE. A REALLY GOOD PANEL HERE TODAY TO KICK IT OFF WHAT SOME OF THE STOCK MARKET MARK I MEAN WE SEE. THE DOW TWENTY THOUSAND AND CLOSE ABOUT TWENTY THOUSAND. DO YOU THINK SOME OF THAT MOMENT AND COULD SPILL OVER INTO A COMMODITY MARKET??WELL IT 'S BEEN A TREMENDOUS RIDE. WE'VE HAD A BIG INCREASE SINCE THE ELECTION. THE MARKETS RESPONDED VERY POSITIVELY. PRESIDENT TRUMP. SOME OF THINGS HE 'S TALKING ABOUT. IT 'S GOOD FOR A LOT OF INDUSTRIES IN THE UNITED STATES. I THINK THE QUESTION BECOMES NOT SO MUCH FOR THE STOCK MARKET, BUT THE TRUMP EFFECT OR THE TRUMP CARD IN AGRICULTURE AND WHAT ARE THE TRADE POLICIES GOING TO BE? THAT 'S SOMETHING NOT ONLY DON'T WE KNOW, I'M NOT SURE THE PRESIDENT KNOWS WHAT HIS POLICY IS GOING TO BE. BUT THE FACT OF MATTER IS SOMETHING THAT COULD BE A LINGERING CLOUD OVER THE MARKETS, AND SO WE KNOW WHERE HE REALLY STANDS ON TRADE ISSUES PARTICULARLY WITH CHINA. ONE OF THE THEMES HERE IS CONTROLLING CHAOS AND UNCERTAINTY RIGHT WHEN WE LOOK AT ALL OF THE UNCERTAINTY RIGHT NOW WITH TRADE. BUT WITH THIS FIGHT THAT EXPORTS HAVE REMAINED PRETTY STRONG. ABSOLUTELY. SOYBEAN EXPORTS IN PARTICULAR ARE VERY VERY STRONG. CORN EXPORTS-- INCREDIBLE GAINS OVER YEAR AGO. WHEAT EXPORTS STRUGGLING A BIT. BUT STILL A WHOLE LOT BETTER THAN WHAT THEY WERE A YEAR AGO. BEEF, PORK IN PARTICULAR,  WE HAD RECORD PORK EXPORTS. IN NOVEMBER. I THINK THAT GETS BACK TO THE DOLLAR, EXCUSE ME, TO THE DOW AND THE EQUITIES. THAT THAT TWENTY K DOW, I THINK THAT IF IT GIVES THE CONSUMERS OUT THERE LITTLE BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IT SHOULD BE MORE POSITIVE FOR THE LIVESTOCK MARKETS AND WOULD BE FOR THE GRAINS. IT CONCERNS ME A LITTLE BIT OF THIS THING KEEPS GOING ARE WE GOING TO TAKE SOME OF THAT INVESTMENT MONEY OUT OF THE COMMODITIES AND MOVE BACK OVER TO EQUITIES. SPEAKING OF EXPORTS, NOT SO GOOD NEWS ON THE ETHANOL FRONT WHEN WE LOOK AT SOME OF THOSE TARIFFS IN CHINA UP SO OVERALL WE THINK THAT HURTS US TO THINK THIS HURTS THE CORN MARKET OF OURS AND REALLY A NON EVENT IN YOUR MIND?? I THINK IT CAPS THE CORN MARKET. I MEAN WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE ETHANOL BUSINESS IS REALLY STRUGGLING. I HAVE A WIND MARKET AND IT 'S DOWN TO ABOUT A HALF THE PRICE IT WAS WHEN TRUMP GOT ELECTED. LOOK AT THE NAMES ARE GOING AND SCOTT PRUETT 'S CAR LIKE PETER NAVARRO A RICK PERRY IS A NOT VERY BIO FUEL FRIENDLY NAMES. IN MY OPINION. I MEAN NAVARRO ESPECIALLY IS THE ONE THAT SCARES ME MOST. HE'S A CHINA HAWK WHEN WE ABOUT EXPORTS AND THAT SORT OF THING. AS FAR AS THE ETHANOL BUSINESS IS CONCERNED, I THINK IT 'S A TOUGH BUSINESS AND THESE GUYS ARE.  BESIDES THAT WHAT PEOPLE REALIZE THE EFFICIENCY OF A PLANTS GETS BETTER AND BETTER. AND YOU KNOW WE'VE SEEN SOME. WE'VE SEEN SOME UNBELIEVABLE UNBELIEVABLE EFFICIENCY RATINGS TWO NINE, THREE POINT ZERO. THE EFFICIENCY ON THAT TWO THOUSAND SIXTEEN CROP IS COMING DOWN A LITTLE BIT. IT 'S NOT QUITE FOURTEEN CROP OF FIFTEEN CROP. BUT ON THE EXPORT SIDE OF THINGS, YOU KNOW YOU LOOK AT MEXICO 'S STARTING TO PUT ETHANOL IN IN THEIR GASOLINE.  THEY'RE GONNA HAVE TO GET IT FROM SOMEPLACE. SUGAR IS TOO HIGH PRICED. PRICED AROUND THE WORLD RIGHT NOW FOR BRAZIL TO BE MAKING ETHANOL OUT OF SUGAR. THEY'RE GONNA START MAKING IT OUT OF CORN AND UP IN MATEGROSO. THERE ARE EXCELLENT EXPORT OPPORTUNITIES OUT THERE FOR ETHANOL WE CAN JUST STAY FOCUSED ON CHINA EVEN THOUGH THATS WHERE THE SMOG BUSTING STUFF NEEDS TO. THE PROBLEM YOU HAVE IS THAT WE'VE TALKED ABOUT THIS FOR YEARS AND YEARS. ALL THE MONEY GETS SPENT FIGHTING THE EPA LETS GO FIND THESE FOREIGN EXPORT MARKETS AND GO GET THE ETHANOL OUT OF THE COUNTRY. LETS GET OFF THE POLICY FRONT THE COURT WHAT WHAT IS IT GOING TO TAKE TO PUSH CORN PRICES HIGHER? I THINK THE FIRST THING I WANT A POINT OUT AS FAR AS CORN PRICES GO ON A ROLL OF CORN PRICES COMPARE TO A YEAR AGO A TOP PRODUCER SEMINAR, WE'RE A LITTLE BIT BETTER THAN WHAT WE WERE AT LAST YEAR. YOU LOOK AT THE SPRING INSURANCE PRICE LAST YEAR. THE THREE EIGHTY SIX WERE ACTUALLY ABOVE THAT. YOU SAY YEAH WE'RE NOT A WHOLE LOT ABOUT THAT. WITH THE BOTTOM LINE IS OUR INPUT COSTS ARE SO MUCH LOWER THAN WHAT THEY WERE. A YEAR AGO. AND SO WE'VE BEEN ENCOURAGING PRODUCERS. YOU GOT TO LOOK AT THE BOTTOM LINE. LET'S NOT YET LOCKED IN THE PRICE. I DON'T HEAR ANYBODY I'M NOT GOING TO SELL ANY CORN UNTIL WE GET THE FOUR BUCKS. BECAUSE IF YOU LOOK AT IT FROM A PROFITABILITY STANDPOINT A LOT OF JUST NORMAL SCENARIOS. YOU'RE FORTY SIXTY DOLLARS AN ACRE BETTER THAN WHAT YOU WERE A YEAR AGO. IT IS NOT A BAD PLACE TO REALLY STEP IN THERE AND MANAGE A LITTLE BIT OF THE RISK BECAUSE THERE IS DOWNSIDE RISK AS WELL. MARK LAST YEAR AT COMMODITY CLASSIC YOU TOLD PRODUCERS HE WILL HAVE AT LEAST ONE OPPORTUNITY TO MARKET ANY NET THAT SO YOU THINK THAT MAYBE WERE TOPPING OUT AT LEAST SOME OF THESE MARKETS?? THAT'S A TOUGH QUESTION. I WOULD SAY THE ANSWER IS NO. WE STILL HAVE THE SPRING WEATHER AND THE SUMMER WEATHER. WE ALWAYS SEEM TO GET SOME TYPE OF SUMMER SCARE HERE IN THE UNITED STATES. I WOULD SAY THAT WE HAVE THAT OPPORTUNITY YET TO COME AS LONG AS THERE 'S NOTHING POLICY-WISE ON THE TRADE FRONT THAT 'S GOING TO QUASH THINGS OVERNIGHT. BUT SOYBEAN PRICES HAVE BEEN SO STRONG. SO WHAT IF WE ARE SEEING THE PEAK RIGHT NOW?? ABSOLUTELY. WHENEVER YOU LOOK AT SOYBEAN PRICES, I DON'T KNOW WHAT YOU'RE REALLY LOOKING FOR. IF I TOLD YOU A YEAR AGO THAT YOU KNOW WHAT WE'RE GONNA HAVE. MORE SOYBEAN ACRES AND WHAT WE'VE SEEN. THREE BUSHEL BETTER NATIONAL YIELD THAN WHAT WE'VE SEEN, WE'RE GOING TO RALLY A BUCK 40 BETWEEN NOW AND NEXT YEAR'S TOP PRODUCER, EVERYBODY WOULD HAVE THOUGHT I WAS CRAZY. AND THAT 'S EXACTLY WHAT WE'VE SEEN. I DON'T KNOW WHAT MORE WE COULD ASK FOR. A ONE TO MANAGE SOME OF THEIR PRICE RISK RIGHT NOW BECAUSE I NEED TO HAVE A PLAN JUST IN CASE THE HIGH HAPPENED BEFORE SPRING PLANTING. THE ACREAGE BE A DEBATE OR A TALK ABOUT THAT WHEN WE COME BACK ON U S FARM REPORT WE DON'T GO ANYWHERE

ROUNDTABLE 2
<OUR SPECIAL COVERAGE OF TOP PRODUCER SEMINAR  BROUGHT TO YOU BY CHANNEL... CHANNEL SEEDSMEN  AT WORK> WELCOME BACK TO U S FARM REPORT ALL RIGHT LET 'S TALK OF HIS ACREAGE TO BE A CHIP HOW LIKELY IS IT THAT WE COULD SEE NINETY PLUS MILLION ACRES OF SOYBEANS THIS YEAR?? I'M NOT GONNA ROLL IT OUT, BUT I THINK IT 'S A LONGSHOT. WE'RE WORKING CLOSER TO THAT EIGHTY SEVEN, EIGHTY SEVEN A HALF MILLION ACRE RANGE. COULD PUSH UP IN THE EIGHTY EIGHT. BUT PUSHING IT ALL THE WEIGHT AND NINETY MILLION ACRES. IF WE DO THAT WOULDN'T BE LOOKING OF BRINGING IN SOME PRTTY MARGINAL ACRES WHICH IS A POSSIBILITY. IF YOU LOOK AT ALL THE HARD RED WINTER WHEAT ACRES THAT THEY LOST, THOSE GUYS INKANSAS THEY GREW BEANS IN 2016 LIKE THEY NEVER THOUGHT THEY COULD EVER GROW. AND NOW THEY THINK OK MAYBE WE'VE GOT A PROGRAM IN PLACE WE GO AHEAD AND DO IT AGAIN. TWO THOUSAND SIXTEEN MIGHT HAVE BEEN A ONCE IN A LIFETIME FOR THEM IN KANSAS WHEN IT COMES TO BEANS. THING WITH THE ACRESI THINK WE CAN GET CLOSE TO NINETY. AND HERE 'S WHY: I THINK A LOT OF THOSE ACRES IN THE WHEAT ACRES ARE GOING TO GO. I THINK WE'RE GONNA SEE A LOT OF CORN ACRES. THEY'RE NOT NECESSARILY WANT TO GO WITH THE BANKERS I WORK WITH ALL OVER THE COUNTRY.  THEY'RE TELLING THEIR FARMERS THEY HAVE TO TAKE A VERY HARD LOOK AT WHY THEY'RE PLANTING CORN THIS YEAR. WE'VE SEEN OTHER CROPS AND OTHER AREAS THAT YOU WOULD SOME COTTON ACRES GOING INTO BEANS. SO I THINK ONE IT 'S ALSO DONE IN THE PROFITABILITY PER ACRE, AND THE CORN-BEAN RATIOS WHERE IT'S AT, I THINK WE COULD PUSH TO NINETEEN MILLION ACRES.  IN MY OPINION, WHEN YOU LOOK AT THIS ACREAGE MIX I THINK WE COULD GET WITHIN A MILLION ACRES BETWEEN CORN AND BEANS. PART OF THE REASON IS A LOT OF WHAT MARK 'S SAYING. BUT YOU KNOW WHENEVER I LOOK AT THE PROFITABILITY OF SOYBEANS IN THE PAST YEAR, THAT 'S WHAT 'S FRESH IN A LOT OF PRODUCERS' MINDS. SOME OF THE YIELDS SOME OF THESE GUYS PULLED OFF OF PLACES TWENTY BUSHEL THAN THEIR A P H S. TAKE THAT TIMES TEN DOLLARS PLUS. YOU'RE LOOKING AT SALTING THAT INCOME SO YOU KNOW WHENEVER. WHENEVER YOU TALK ABOUT THE BANKING INDUSTRY. A YEAR AGO WE HAD A CREDIT CRUNCH ABSOLUTELY. WE HAVE THE SAME THING.  THE CREDIT CRUNCH IS STILL THERE BUT YET WE'RE ABOUT FORTY HIGHER THAN A YEAR AGO. SO TO ME, YOU HAVE TO GIVE A LITTLE BIT OF CREDENCE TO THAT. COTTON MARKET IS ALSO SOMETHING TO WATCH THAT WE COULD SEE A MAJOR INCREASE IN THAT I'M EXCITED TO SEE THAT NUMBER WHEN IT COMES OUT. THE BOTTOM LINE IS WE SEE THIS IT WOULD REPORT TO USDA 'S HOW MUCH STOCK WE PUT IN THAT HEAT BECAUSE I JUST SAW A CHART THAT SHOWED THE RESPONSES FOR THESE NASS SURVEYS AND IT JUST KEEPS FALLING YEAR AFTER YEAR AFTER YEAR SO WE SEE FEWER RESPONSES WITH HOW ACCURATE ARE THESE NUMBERS WHEN THEY COME OUT?? INTERESTING QUESTION WHEN THAT THE MASS ENDED AT ITS MEETING IN CHICAGO A FEW MONTHS AGO I ASKED LANCE ON THE HEAD OF MASS THAT SAME QUESTIONS THAT WERE PRETTY HAPPY AS SEVENTY PERCENT THAT ROBERTS HAD HIS TWO CHIEF ECONOMIST FO USDA. HE'S THE ONE THAT GOT TOGETHER WITH THE UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS TO GET THIS OUT.  THE RESPONSE RATE IS BELOW SEVENTY PERCENT. I THINK IN THE LONG RUN THEY'RE GOING TO TIE PAYMENTS TO WHETHER YOU RESPOND TO YOUR SURVEY. I ALSO THINK THE ISSUE HAD NOT EVEN JUST ABOUT A SURVEY TO COME IN, THE BELT IS BEING REDEFINED WAS REDEFINED. WE GO OUT ON CROP TOUR, WE USED TO COVER TO COVER SEVENTY PERCENT OF THE CORN ACRES. LAST YEAR WERE IN THE SAME STATE TO COVER FIFTY TWO PERCENT. THE BELT. WHEN YOU LOOK JUST AT A SIDE. WHEN YOU LOOK AT NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA THEIR YIELDS MATCHING OHIO. KANSAS OKLAHOMA PRODUCING AS MUCH. THE PROBLEM YOU HAVE IS THAT YOU HAD THIS TEST PLOT AND ALL THAT AND ALL THE CONCENTRATION FOR THE SURVEYS IN A CERTAIN AREA NOW HAS TO WIDEN OUT. AS YOU SAY THE DEAL TO THESE GUYS MADE THE FRINGE ACRES THAT 'S SPECTACULAR. SO I TELL WHEN NASA 'S TEST PLOTS ARE ONLY IN THE MIDDLE, YOU KNOW YOU HAVE A PROBLEM NOT TRYING TO GAUGE WHAT 'S WHAT 'S GOING ON ON THE OUTSIDE OF MYSELF. I SPEND MORE TIME SOUTH OR NORTH DAKOTA OKLAHOMA TENNESSEE. WHCH MEANS WE NEED TO PUT MORE FOCUS ON THE QUARTERLY GRAIN STOCKS REPORT TRYING TO FIGURE OUT JUST EXACTLY HOW MUCH SUPPLIES OUT THERE. THE PROBLEM IS THOSE QUARTERLY GRAIN STOCKS REPORTS, THAT 'S THE LEAST RELIABLE SET OF DATA THAT WE GET FROM NASS. AND WE SWEAR WE THINK BACK TO IT. SO THAT YOU GOT A LOT MORE AT THE CASH MARKET, THE BASIS MARKET TELLS YOU WHAT THE TOTAL SUPPLY IS OUT THERE AND THE AVAILABILITY OF CORN AND SOYBEANS ON A REGIONAL BASIS. YEARS WILL HAVE ABOUT A MINUTE AND A HALF LEFT TO MATT. BUT WHAT DOES THIS CATTLE MARKET DO YOU THINK WERE OVERPRICED AT AT THIS POINT?? THAT 'S A GOOD QUESTION. YEAH WE TALKED ABOUT BEFORE THE SHOW AND I DON'T KNOW THAT WE ALL AGREE ON THAT, BUT I GUESS THE WAY THAT I LOOK AS MOST CATTLE GUYS I LOOK LIKE LOOK AT ARE MAKING MONEY. THSE PRICE LEVELS. AND SO IT 'S KINDA LIKE MY ARGUMENT WITH A QUARTER OF A BASEMENT I DON'T KNOW WHAT MORE YOU CAN ASK FOR A SPECIAL IN THE CATTLE PRODUCER 'S JUST ABOUT THREE MONTHS AGO WAS SCARED TO DEATH. WE WERE GONNA MAKE A WHOLE LOT OF MONEY AT ALL AND SO IN MY OPINION I DON'T KNOW WHAT 'S GOING HIGHER LOWER OR SIDEWAYS. I WOULD BE MARKETING CATTLE AT THESE PRICES. MARK. DO YOU AGREE WITH THAT WELL WE'VE HAD A INCREDIBLE TWENTY TWENTY TWO DOLLAR RALLY IN THIS CATTLE MARKET AND THAT 'S THAT THEY'RE JUST SAY WELL IT 'S GOING HIGHER I THINK IS A MARKET WHICH STATE YOU GOTTA SPEND A FEW WATTS. BUT IN WHAT PROTECT THE DOWNSIDE IS I STILL BELIEVE IN TYING THE CATTLE MARKET TO THE STOCK MARKET WHICH IS CLOSED OVER TWENTY THOUSAND. I THINK THAT 'S AN INDICATION OF A HEALTHY ECONOMY AMERICANS ABILITY TO GO OUT IN MY STEAK, BUY BEEF AND AS LONG AS THAT STOCK MARKET HOLDS UP. I BELIEVE WE CAN SEE SOME HIGHER CATTLE PRICES. BUT WHILE WE'RE WAITING FOR THAT WE'RE GONNA PUT ON AND WE STARTED THOUGH THE COVERAGE FOR THE FIRST HALF FOR TWENTY SEVENTEEN ON ON CATTLE WERE WERE WERE GETTING STARTED. WHEN I GET CRAZY AT THIS POINT IT 'S THE BEEF DEMAND IS I MEAN IF WE IF IT BE THE MAN DOESN'T KEEP UP WITH THE AMOUNT THAT WILL PUT ON OUT THERE IN THE IN THE MARKETS AND BUILDING STOCKS WERE BUILDING STARTS SO NOT HAVE A CAUTIOUS TONE TO IT. ARE ALL THAT DISCUSSION WENT WAY TOO QUICKLY BUT IT 'S ALREADY TIME TO GET A CLOSING THOUGHTS SO WE'LL DO THAT WHEN WE COME BACK ON U S FARM REPORT

MARKETS NOW
WELCOME BACK TO U S FARM REPORT 'S TIME NOW FOR CLOSING THOUGHTS MARK GOLD LETS START WITH YOU. I THINK ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT THINGS WE CAN TELL YOU IS THAT IN MY OPINION YOU NEED TO BE PROTECTING YOUR SOYBEAN PRICES OUT HERE AND PROTECTING RIGHT NOW. CORN AND WHEAT WITH THE FUND STILL SHORT, OF THAT WE MIGHT GET ONE RALLY A LITTLE BIT OF A SPRING SUMMER RALLY AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THAT. RIGHT NOW THAT WE ARE I'M ENCOURAGED AS COMPARED TO A YEAR AGO. WERE COMING IN TWENTY SEVENTEEN IN A SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER SITUATION. I'M ENCOURAGED BY THE PROFITABILITY OF CORN. VERY ENCOURAGED BY SOYBEAN PRICES BEING SO FAR ABOUT A YEAR AGO. I WANT TO MANAGE SOME OF THAT RISK IN ALL THE FLOORS OF THE MARKETWATCH UP SIDE IF POSSIBLE. BUT I DEFINITELY DON'T WANT TO IGNORE THESE PRICES. I BELIEVE WE'RE IN A FIVE YEAR CYCLE. WE COMPLETED THREE YEARS DOWN. WE'RE STARTING TO MAKE THAT BOTTOM OF TURN UP. THE PROBLEM I HAVE IN UNCHARTED WATERS. THERE ARE NO POLITICIANS IN WASHINGTON CONTROLLING YOUR POLICY ANYMORE. YOU HAVE TO BE VERY VERY CAREFUL AS THIS GENTLEMAN SAY, TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OF WHAT YOU GOT. ON CORN SOYBEANS, GET STARTED DON'T GET CRAZY ON THAT ON ON YOUR NEW CROP MARKETING. AT THE SAME TIME, THE PRODUCTION IN TWENTY SEVENTEEN IN BOTH CORN AND SOYBEANS IS PROBABLY GONNA FALL SHORT OF OUR TOTAL USE. CARRYOVERS ARE COMING DOWN AT THE END OF SEVENTEEN EIGHTEEN LET 'S LET 'S KEEP YOUR UPSIDE POTENTIAL ALIVE. ARE RIGHT FOR BEING HERE STAY WITH US. JOHN PHIPPS JOINS US NEXT

JOHN’S WORLD
<OUR SPECIAL COVERAGE OF TOP PRODUCER SEMINAR  BROUGHT TO YOU BY CHANNEL... CHANNEL SEEDSMEN AT WORK> SHOPPING ON SITES LIKE AMAZON IS NOW A WAY OF  LIFE FOR MANY OF US. BUT IS THE CHANGE IN OUR  BUYING HABITS A HEALTHY ONE? HERE'S JOHN PHIPPS.  OVER THE YEARS I HAVE MADE REFERENCES TO HOW AMAZON HAS  CHANGED MY BUYING HABITS. ONE OF THE FIRST CLEAR EXAMPLES DEALS  WITH THIS TABLE SAW. YEARS AGO, AMAZON HAD AN OFFER TO DELIVER  ANYTHING FOR $4.95. ANYTHING. SO INSTEAD OF PAYING OVER A HUNDRED BUCK FOR FREIGHT, THIS 400# BEAUTY WAS UNLOADED AT MY  FARM FOR 5 BUCKS. ALONG WITH THE ABILITY TO BUY ANY BOOK IN THE KNOWN UNIVERSE INSTEAD OF SLOGGING 60 MILES TO A SERIOUS BOOKSTORE THIS FEATURE  SOON MADE ME A REGULAR CUSTOMER. BUT JEFF BEZOS, THE CEO OF AMAZON WAS THINKING MUCH FARTHER  AHEAD. DESPITE ANNUAL LOSSES FOR YEARS, HE WAS BUILDING THE  ULTIMATE CONSUMER RETAIL CHANNEL. EVERY YEAR THEIR SERVICE AND  RETAIL FOOTPRINT INCREASED. FOR EXAMPLE, IF YOU HAVE EXPERIENCED  ONE-CLICK SHOPPING, YOU HAVE SOME IDEA HOW POWERFUL THAT  FEATURE IS IN SHAPING YOUR BUYING HABITS. IN THE LAST FEW YEARS, THEY HAVE TAKEN ANOTHER STEP WITH AMAZON  PRIME MEMBERSHIP. FOR A FEE OF $75 ANNUALLY, CUSTOMERS GET FREE TWO-DAY SHIPPING ON ANYTHING. LOGICALLY, THIS SHOULDN'T HAVE  THAT BIG AN EFFECT, BUT AS JAN AND I CAN ATTEST, THE IDEA OF "FREE"  IS SEDUCTIVE.  I REALIZE THIS SOUNDS LIKE A COMMERCIAL FOR AMAZON, AND MAYBE  IT IS, BUT SO FAR I HAVEN'T SEEN ANY RESIDUAL CHECKS, BUT THE MORE  IMPORTANT POINT IS THE EFFECT AMAZON HAS ON RETAIL IN GENERAL.  NOT ONLY ARE WE SEEING DEPARTMENT STORES LIKE MACY'S AND SEARS  CLOSING STORES ALL OVER THE COUNTRY, ENTIRE SHOPPING MALLS ARE  BEING CONVERTED TO OTHER USES. IN FACT, THE CURIOUS AMERICAN  PRACTICE OF SHOPPING AS A PASTIME IS THREATENED.  FOR US, FAR FROM BRICK AND MORTAR OUTLETS, AMAZON ADDS  CONVENIENCE AND CHOICE TO OUR CONSUMPTION. WE'RE NOT ALONE.  FARM AUDIENCES I HAVE SPOKEN TO THIS WINTER HAVE CONVINCED ME  THAT THE RECENT ANNOUNCEMENT BY AMAZON THAT HALF OF ALL  AMERICAN HOUSEHOLDS ARE NOW PRIME MEMBERS SEEMS TO BE  REFLECTED IN RURAL POPULATIONS. THIS IS NOT GOOD NEWS FOR  COMPETING BUSINESS MODELS, ESPECIALLY IN SMALLER TOWNS. WHAT DOES IT MEAN WHEN WE INCREASINGLY SHOP FROM HOME? I  THINK IT WILL BEND THE CURVES FOR GASOLINE CONSUMPTION, REDUCE  OUR SOCIAL INTERACTIONS, AND MAKE THE DISTINCTION BETWEEN RURAL  AND URBAN LIVING EVEN SHARPER.  JUST AS THE ANSWER TO "WHERE DOES FOOD COME FROM?" HAS IN ONE  SENSE BECOME "THE DRIVE-UP WINDOW", THE ANSWER TO "WHERE  DOES EVERYTHING ELSE COME FROM" COULD MOST OFTEN BE "THE UPS  TRUCK". THANKS, JOHN.

TEASE
THEY'RE A FARM FAMILY GROWING MORE COMMERCIAL PEACHES THAN ALL OF GEORGIA  COMBINED, AND THEY'RE THIS YEAR'S TOP PRODUCER  OF THE YEAR. WE'LL INTRODUCE YOU TO TITAN FARMS  NEXT. 

HEADLINES
WELCOME BACK TO U-S FARM REPORT THIS WEEKEND.  WE HAVE MUCH MORE AHEAD. TRUMP MAKES GOOD ON HIS PROMISE TO GET TOUGH  ON TRADE IN HIS FIRST 100 DAYS.  THEY'RE A LARGE PACKER, GROWER, AND PROCESSOR  OF FRESH PEACHES AND VEGETABLES ON THE EAST  COAST AND THIS YEAR'S TOP PRODUCER OF THE YEAR.  WE'RE ON THE ROAD WITH MACHINERY PETE WHERE  DEMAND FOR COTTON EQUIPMENT GAINING MOMENTUM  THANKS TO A GOOD COTTON CROP.   AND WHAT'S THE ISSUE WITH BEEF DEMAND AND RETAIL  BEEF PRICES? THAT'S CUSTOMER SUPPORT. 

DROUGHT DWINDLING
NOW FOR THE HEADLINES.. RECENT RAINS AND SNOWS  QUENCHING THE THIRST OF U-S SOILS, WITH THE  COUNTRY BECOMING FREE OF EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT  FOR THE FIRST TIME IN NEARLY 6 YEARS.  LOOK AT THIS MAP-- THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR  SHOWING THE U-S NOT SEEING EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT  FOR HTE FIRST TIME SINCE MARCH OF 2011. AND  EXTREME DROUGHT COVERAGE IS THE BEST IT'S  LOOKED SINCE OCTOBER OF 2010.  CALIFORNIA'S IMPROVEMENTS ARE THE MOST TELLING...  HERE'S A SIDE BY SIDE OF WHAT DROUGHT LOOKED  LIKE ONE YEAR AGO, COMPARED TO TODAY.  NEARLY 39 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS DROUGHT FREE.  BUT LOOK AT HTE EXTREME DROUGHT CATEGORY,  ONLY A SMALL POCKET IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF  THE STATE... LAST YEAR, THAT AREA CONSUMED 64  PERCENT OF CALIFORNIA.  CHIEF METEOROLOGIST AT WEATHER BELL SAYS THE  MOISTURE PROVING TO BE A DROUGHT BUSTER FOR  FARMERS AND RANCHERS THERE.  <JUST LIKE TEXAS, THE PERMA DROUGHT ENDED LIKE THAT. WITH THE HEAVY RAINS. THIS HAS BEEN AN INCREDIBLE WINTER IN IN CALI WITH 200% OF NORMAL SNOW IN THE SIERRAS. >HE SAYS TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SOUTHEAST AND THE  SOUTHERN PLAINS. IF THE DROUGHT CONTINUES TO  IMPROVE, THE MOISTURE OUTLOOK FOR THE  REMAINDER OF THE YEAR LOOKS MUCH BETTER. 

TPP WITHDRAW
MANY OF THE 11 NATIONS STILL REMAINING IN THE  TRANS PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP ARE WONDERING IF  ANOTHER FORM OF THE TRADE PACT CAN GET DONE  NOW THAT THE U-S IS OUT OF I FOLLOWING THRU ON A CAMPAIGN PROMISE, THE  PRESIDENT SIGNED AN ORDER TO WITHDRAW THE U-S  FROM THE T-P-P. MANY HIGH PROFILE AG GROUPS WERE NOT HAPPY  WITH THAT DECISION. A WIDE RANGE OF GROUPS -  FROM FARM BUREAU AND NCBA TO FRESH PRODUCE  ORGANIZATIONS - WANT THE ADMINISTRATION TO HELP  FIND OTHER TRADE DESTINATIONS TO REPLACE THE  LOST MARKETS IN T-P-P. MEXICO'S PRESIDENT HAS CANCELLED HIS PLANS TO  MEET WITH PRESIDENT TRUMP NEXT WEEK. ENRIQUE PENA NIETO SAYING HE WILL NOT TRAVEL TO  WASHINGTON ONE DAY AFTER U-S PRESIDENT MOVED  FORWARD WITH HIS PLAN TO BUILD A WALL ALONG THE  SOUTHERN BORDER. . PENA NIETO SAYS HE STILL WANTS TO WORK WITH THE  U-S ON TRADE OPPORTUNITIES THROUGH THE NORTH  AMERICAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT.

KXL AND DAPL
THE PRESIDENT'S PEN COULD ALSO JUMP-START  CONSTRUCTION OF THE KEYSTONE X-L PIPELINE... AND  PUSH THE DAKOTA ACCESS OIL PIPELINE OVER THE  FINISH-LINE. THE EXECUTIVE ORDER INVITES THE K-X-L  BUILDER, TRANSCANADA, TO RE-APPLY FOR A PERMIT  TO ALLOW IT TO CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.  TRANSCANADA TELLS U-S FARM REPORT THAT IT IS  CURRENTLY PREPARING THE APPLICATION.PRESIDENT OBAMA KILLED THE K-X-L PROJECT IN LATE  2015, DECLARING IT WOULD HINDER HIS EFFORTS TO  CLINCH A GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE DEAL. THE FIRST STEPS OF WRITING THE NEXT FARM BILL ARE  NOW BEING TAKEN. THE SENATE AG COMMITTEE  ANNOUNCING THIS WEEK THE FIRST FIELD HEARING  WILL BE HELD NEXT MONTH AT KANSAS STATE  UNIVERSITY. THE SENATORS WILL HEAR TESTIMONY ON HOW THE  CURRENT MEASURE IS - OR IS NOT - WORKING.

EU MILK PRICE PROTEST
ACROSS THE POND,  A CLOUD OF WHITE AROUND THE  FRONT DOOR OF THE EUROPEAN UNION  HEADQUARTERS AS DAIRY FARMERS PROTEST  SAGGING MILK PRICES. MAKING THEIR POINT WITH MILK POWDER...MANY  FARMERS ARE STRUGGLING AS THE SECTOR FACES  LOWER PROFITS. THE EU DID AWAY WITH IT'S MILK QUOTA SYSTEM TWO  YEARS AGO, ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN  PRODUCTION.

WEATHER
THAT'S IT FOR NEWS...METEOROLOGIST MIKE  HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH THE NATIONAL  FORECAST. MIKE, I'M STILL IN AMAZEMENT ABOUT THE  IMPROVEMENTS IN THE DROUGHT MONITOR TO KICK  OFF 2017. IS MORE IN STORE IN YOUR 90 DAY OUTLOOK?  WELL TYNE, AT THIS POINT I DON'T SEE AND I SEE THIS CHANGE IN THE  WEATHER PATTERN KIND OF NOT PRODUCING ALL THAT MOISTURE THAT  WE'VE SEEN IN THE SOUTHEAST OR CALIFORNIA OVER THE PAST MONTH LETS JET THE JET STREAM IT 'S  COLDER NO DOUBT ABOUT IT IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WITH  THE RIDGE OUT WEST AND TYPICALLY WHEN YOU HAVE A ROTATION IN THE  HUDSON BAY AREA YOU HAVE A PRETTY GOOD TROUGH IN TH EAST BUT WATCH WHAT OUR COMPUTER MODELS ARE DOING NOW AS WE HEAD TO NEXT WEEK AND HAD TAKEN A BACK TO MORE ZONAL  NOW. THAT WOULD STILL BE VERY COLD FOR THE GREAT LAKES IN THE  NORTHEAST LATER NEXT WEEK   BUT THAT WARMER AIR MIGHT START TO SPREAD IN THE SOUTHEASTERN  PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. IF THIS HAPPENS AGAIN MANY TIMES THAT  DOESN'T WHEN YOU HAVE THAT ROTATION  UP TO THE NORTH IN CANADA SO FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING  FOR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY BASICALLY  ABOVE NORMAL SOUTHWEST FOR SOUTH FLORIDA MARCH TEMPERATURES  WILL SHRINK THE COLD EXPAND THEIR WARMTH AND BY APRIL WE'RE DEFINITELY EXPANDING THE  WARM THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES WITH A SMALLER AREA  BELOW THERE IN THE NORTH WESTERN GREAT LAKES PRECIPITATION OVER  THE NEXT NINETY DAYS BELOW NORMAL IN THE SOUTH EAST THE FAR  SOUTHWEST WITH ABOVE NORMAL A GREAT LIGHT AND THE NORTHERN  ROCKIES. TYNE

TOP PRODUCER OF THE YEAR
THANKS, MIKE. EVERY YEAR OUR CORPORATE  PARTNERS AT TOP PRODUCER MAGAZINE HONOR ONE  OF THE NATION'S FARMS AND FARM FAMILIES AS THE  BEST  IN THE BUSINESS. ... IT'S THE COVETED TOP  PRODUCER OF THE YEAR AWARD.  THIS WEEK AT TOP PRODUCER SEMINAR IN CHICAGO,  THE WINNER IS NAMED. THIS YEAR, IT'S SOUTH  CAROLINA PRODUCERS CHALMERS AND LORI ANNE  CARR FROM TITAN FARMS. BETSY JIBBEN HAS THEIR STORY.    STEP INTO THE OFFICE OF CHALMERS CARR.  AND IT'S EASY TO SEE HIS JOB IS NOT LIMITED TO THE  FARM. : <"YOU HAVE TO GO OUT THERE AND BE AN ADVOCATE, NO  MATTER WHAT THAT TAKES,"> PROOF OF HIS ADVOCACY IS EASY TO SEE  CARR CONSIDERS HIS LEADERSHIP ROLL MORE LIKE  PLAYING QUARTERBACK.   HELPING GOOD PEOPLE SUCCEED AND CHALLENGING  THEM TO DO MORE.  I SIT THERE AND MAKE SURE PEOPLE KNOW WHAT  THEY'RE SUPPOSED TO BE DOING AND HAVE THE RESOURCES TO DO THAT.  THEN YOU COACH THEM ALONG THE WAY TO SEE IF THEY KNOW WHAT  THEY'RE DOING OR IF YOU RUN INTO A PROBLEM, YOU'RE THERE AS A  RESOURCE.">  CHALMERS CARR IS A SELF-MADE, FIRST GENERATION  FARMER. TWO UNCLES HELPED HIM GET HIS START IN  FLORIDA , EVENTUALLY LEASING THIS SOUTH CAROLINA  FARM HIS WITH HIS WIFE LORI ANNE BEFORE BUYING IT  LATER. <"WE DIDN'T HAVE PARENTS OR GRANDPARENTS TELLING US  'THIS IS THE WAY IT'S ALWAYS BEEN DONE.' BUT WHEN YOU PUT  INNOVATIVE PEOPLE AROUND YOU AND YOU EMBRACE TECHNOLOGY, YOU  FORGE YOUR OWN WAY,">  AND THEIR WAY HAS BEEN A SUCCESSFUL ONE.  TITAN FARMS IS NOW A PREMIER PACKER, GROWER,  AND PROCESSOR OF FRESH PEACHES AND  VEGETABLES ON THE EAST COAST.   THEIR HEART IS IN PEACHES. TITAN FARMS IS THE  SECOND LARGEST PEACH PRODUCER IN THE COUNTRY.  CARR CLAIMS THE COMPANY PRODUCES MORE  COMMERCIAL PEACHES THAN THE WHOLE STATE OF  GEORGIA. WE LIKE TO SAY THAT, YES. IT'S ALWAYS A DEBATE, BUT  WE'VE SAID THAT ON NATIONAL TELEVISION BEFORE. SO, YES," LAUGHS.> BUT THIS BIG COMPANY WHICH HAS GROWN OVER 400  PERCENT SINCE IT STARTED WANTS TO CONTINUE TO  FIND WAYS TO MEET DEMAND. "I COULD SEE US GROWING BIGGER PLUS THE DEMAND OF  PEACHES IS ON THE INCREASE. WE'VE HAD ENOUGH DECREASE OF  ACREAGE SO I SEE A CHANGE GOING ON. I'M EXCITED ABOUT IT,"> "IN THE FUTURE, WE WANT TO SEE THAT HAPPEN. I'D LIKE TO  SEE US ON SOME SORT OF GROWTH PATH. PROBABLY NOT AS RAPID AS WE  HAVE BEEN RECENTLY. BUT MORE MANAGEABLE,">  THE OPERATION IS WELL ON ITS WAY.  THE CARR S ARE USING NEW TECHNOLOOGY ON THEIR  PACKING LINE' TO BE COST EFFECTIVE AND KEEP  QUALITY HIGH.  "WE HAVE NINE CAMERAS PER LANE. AS THAT FRUIT  ROTATES UNDERNEATH IT. IT WILL TAKE 500 PICTURES OF EACH PEACH IN A  MILLI-SECOND, IT WILL GRADE THAT PEACH,">  THE NEWEST ADDITION IS A PALMETTO PROCESSING  MACHINE. WHICH USES PEACH PRODUCT THAT'S NORMALLY  THROWN OUT DUE TO COSMETIC DEFECTS. INSTEAD,  IT'S REPURPOSED FOR FROZEN, SLICE AND DICE, FRUIT  CUPS AND PEACH PUREE PRODUCTS.  THE COMPANY IS TURNING 17 MILLION POUNDS OF  WASTE INTO JUST ONE MILLION.  "AS OUR ACRES AND VOLUME GOT SO BIG, WE WERE  THROWING AWAY 17 MILLION POUNDS. THAT'S 370 TRACTOR TRAILER LOADS.  THAT'S MORE THAN THE WHOLE STATE OF MICHIGAN PRODUCES, I WAS  THROWING AWAY,">  THEY'VE ALSO COME UP WITH WAYS TO MARKET THE  'BEST OF HTE BEST' THE 'SWEETEST SOUTHERN PEACH,'  LORI ANNE.  <"WE CREATED A BRAND AROUND THAT AND I HAPPENED TO  GET THE NAMESAKE. THAT'S MY SIGNATURE ON THE BOX. IT'S A LOT OF  FUN,">  SUCCESSES AT HOME, BUT CHALMERS HAS WORK LEFT  TO DO IN WASHINGTON.   HE TEAMED UP WITH LAWMAKERS AND ORGANIZATIONS  TO PUSH HARD TO OPEN PEACH EXPORTS TO MEXICO  FOLLOWING A MULTI-YEAR BAN.  "SO TO BE ABLE TO OPEN THE BORDERS THERE IN 16 IN  2011, TO GET SOUTHERN PEACHES BACK INTO MEXICO WAS  TREMENDOUS FOR US,">  IMMIGRATION HOWEVER, IS HIS LARGEST BATTLE.   HE'S HOPINGFOR AN UPDATED H2A PROGRAM, NOT  LIMITED TO SEASONAL WORK.  "MY COMMENT TO WASHINGTON ALL OF THE TIME IS YOUR  FOOD IS GOING TO BE HARVESTED BY A FOREIGN WORKER. IT'S WHETHER  IT'S GOING TO BE HARVESTED HERE OR IN A FOREIGN COUNTRY,">  HE SAYS LABOR IS HARD TO FIND, EVEN WITH A  COMPETITIVE WAGE.  MY FARM ADVERTISES FOR 600 WORKERS A YEAR. THIS  YEAR WE HAD 7 U.S. WORKERS APPLY FOR THOSE JOBS,">  CHALMERS SAYS THE WORKFORCE HE DOES HAVE IS  WHAT, MAKES THE TEAM SUCCESSFUL. AND HE TRIES  TO REWARD THEM.  THE COMPANY HAS A 92 PERCENT RETURN RATE. THEY  ALSO OFFER FULL HEALTH INSURCE, MATCHINTG 401K  PROGRAMS AND BENEFIT PACKAGES. "IT TAKES A TEAM. WE CERTAINLY HAVE A TEAM. WE PLAY  TOGETHER. WE WORK TOGETHER. WE SPEND AN AWFUL LOT OF TIME  TOGETHER. THAT IS THE KEY TO IT ALL I BELIEVE,">  PICTURE THIS:<GOING BACK TO PHOTOS ON WALL AND ONE OF DABO  SWINNEY PERSONALIZED TO CHALMERS SAYING "ALL IN.">  AND LIKE HIS FAVORITE TEAM SYAING, THE CARRS ARE  'ALL IN' EMPOWERING PEOPLE, GROWING THEIR  OPERATION, AND SUPPLYING A SAFE AND HEALTHY  PRODUCT.  "IF YOU EMPOWER YOUR PEOPLE, TRUST IN YOUR PEOPLE,  THEY'LL DO WONDERFUL THINGS,"> CONGRATULATIONS AGAIN TO TITAN FARMS BEING  NAMED TOP PRODUCER OF THE YEAR. THEIR STORY WILL ALSO BE IN AN UPCOMING ISSUE OF  TOP PRODUCER MAGAZINE.

TEASE
UP NEXT, JOHN PHIPPS.  <HERE'S YOUR CHANCE TO WIN A DREAM SPORTS TRIP,  PLUS A $10,000 DONATION FOR A COMMUNCIATY SPACE.  TEXT DREAM TO 31313 TO ENTER TODAY>

CUSTOMER SUPPORT
WE'VE DISCUSSED IT SOME ON THE ROUDTABLES, BUT  CATTLE PRICES HAVE DECLINED, AND RETAIL BEEF  PRICES HAVEN'T RESPONDED IN THE SAME WAY. JOHN  PHIPPS TACKLES THAT TOPIC IN THIS WEEK'S  CUSTOMER SUPPORT.  TODAY WE HAVE A DECEPTIVELY SIMPLE QUESTION THAT HAS HASSLED  AN ENTIRE INDUSTRY FOR DECADES: "PLEASE EXPLAIN TO US AS CONSUMERS WHY THE PRICE OF BEEF GETS  HIGHER AND HIGHER WHILE ACCORDING TO US FARM REPORT CATTLE  PRICES FOR FARMERS REMAIN LOW. WHERE ARE THE SIGNIFICANT  CHANGES TO THE COST OF BEEF GENERATED?" SUSAN AND RON EVANS, PALM DESERT CA THANK YOU FOR THE QUESTION. BY THE WAY, PUTTING TWO NAMES ON  YOUR EMAIL WILL NOT GET YOU TWO MUGS, BUT YOU CAN WHOEVER  DOESN'T GET THIS ONE CAN SUBMIT A NEW QUESTION. NICE TRY,  THOUGH. I HAVE RECEIVED THIS QUESTION IN SOME FORM OR OTHER A FEW TIMES. THERE ARE TWO OVERALL REASONS FOR THE DIVERGENCE IN PRICES  RECEIVED BY FARMERS AND WHAT CONSUMERS ARE PAYING. THE FIRST IS  THE BEEF PRODUCTION CYCLE. BEEF TAKES A LONG TIME TO GET TO THE CONSUMER. FROM THE TIME OF  CONCEPTION, THROUGH GESTATION, GROWTH, AND FINISHING, THE  ABSOLUTE FASTEST BEEF CAN GET TO MARKET IS ABOUT 2 ½ YEARS.  COWS ARE NOT DESIGNED FOR JUST-IN-TIME INVENTORY. CONSEQUENTLY  THERE CAN BE BIG MISMATCHES BETWEEN DEMAND AND SUPPLY.  THE OTHER GENERAL FACTOR IS ECONOMIC CONDITIONS. BEEF IS THE HIGHEST PRICED MEAT, AND WHEN THE ECONOMY SLOWS DOWN, MANY  CONSUMERS WILL SHIFT TO LOWER PRICED PROTEIN LIKE CHICKEN. THE  PRICES FOR COMPETING PRODUCTS, FOOD FADS LIKE THE ADKINS DIET, OR  SAFETY CONCERNS LIKE MAD COW OR AVAIN FLU DISEASE CAN DRIVE  BEEF DEMAND EITHER WAY. THE RESULT IS SHOWN IN THIS GRAPH. AT TIMES FARMERS GET A LARGE  PORTION OF THE FOOD DOLLAR, BUT OFTEN RETAILERS MAKE MORE. FARMER  SHARE OF THE BEEF RETAIL DOLLAR HAS VARIED FROM 40-60% IN THE LAST  FEW YEARS. THIS IS REGARDLESS OF WHAT RETAIL PRICES ARE DOING. NOW ADD IN THE FACT THAT EVEN IF CATTLE PRICES ARE STRONG, FEED PRICES, ESPECIALLY CORN, CAN DETERMINE PROFIT. WHEN CORN WAS $6  DOLLARS, EVEN SKY-HIGH BEEF PRICES DIDN'T HELP BEEF PRODUCERS.  PRICE IS NOT THE SAME AS PROFIT. THE RESULT IS MARKET SIGNALS THAT TAKE A LONG TIME TO TRAVEL DOWN  THE SUPPLY CHAIN TO TELL PRODUCERS WHETHER TO EXPAND PRODUCTION  OR CUT BACK. AND A LONG TIME FOR THAT RESPONSE TO COME TO THE  STORE. THINK OF IT LIKE THE ACCORDION EFFECT AT A STOPLIGHT IN HEAVY TRAFFIC. EVEN IF YOU CAN SEE THE SIGNAL AHEAD IS GREEN, YOU MUST  WAIT UNTIL OTHER PEOPLE MOVE. THE RESULT IS A FOOD CHAIN THAT CYCLES BETWEEN BOOM AND BUST.  CATTLE PRODUCERS ARE NOTED FOR THEIR ABILITY TO WEATHER SUCH  CYCLES, BUT IT IS NOT AN EASY BUSINESS. THANKS, JOHN. IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR  COMMENTS, YOU CAN REACH JOHN BY EMAILING  MAILBAG AT U-S FARM REPORT DOT COM. 

TEASE
UP NEXT, MOMENTUM IN COTTON COUNTRY. WE'RE ON THE ROAD WITH MACHINERY PETE NEXT.

ON THE ROAD WITH MACHINERY PETE
<ON THE ROAD WITH MACHINERY PETE BROUGHT TO  YOU BY JOHN DEERE, NOTHING RUNS LIKE A DEERE> FARMERS FACED WITH MULTIPLE YEARS OF SOFTER  COMMODITY PRICES ARE HOLDING ONTO EQUIPMENT A  LITTLE LONGER. IT'S A TREND COMPANIES LIKE JOHN  DEERE ARE SEEING ACROSS THE COUNTRY. BUT IN COTTON COUNTRY, YIELDS WERE HIGH, PRICES  ARE FINALLY TURNING PROFITS AND THE OUTLOOK IS  TURNING BRIGHTER FOR 2017. I THINK SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA, TEXAS PANHANDLE, MOODS ARE REALLY  HIGH RIGHT NOW > THE BLANKET OF WHITE COTTON THIS YEAR IS  FABRICATING RECORD YIELDS FOR GROWERS IN  OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.WE HAD A GREAT COTTON CROP, WE'RE LOOKING TO ADD  A LOT MORE ACRES <I WAS TOLD BY THE PARTS MANAGER AT ALTUS OKLAHOMA THAT SOME OF  THE GUYS WERE MAKING 5 BALE COTTON. AND I SORT OF HAD TO STOP  HIM A LITTLE BIT. I HAVE NEVER HEARD OF ANYBODY MAKING 5 BALE  COTTON, BUT THER EARE A FEW DOING THAT NORMAL IN THIS AREA FOR IRRIGATED ACRES? 3 TO 3  AND HALF BALES PER ACRE. THOSE HIGH YIELDS EVEN  CAUSING GROWERS TO SECOND GUESS IF THEIR  MONITOR WAS CALLIBRATED CORRECTLY.  <WE ACTUALLY HAD SOME GUYS THAT CALLED US BACK AND SAID I DON'T  THINK THIS IS RIGHT, SO WE WENT OUT  AND SAID YES, IT REALLY IS  MAKING THIS> RAINS WERE RIGHT ON SCHEDULE AND COTTON PRICES  FOUND MOMENTUM,  CREATING THE PERFECT STORM  FOR GROWERS FORTUNATE ENOUGH TO GET THE  MOISTURE. IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA, THOSE RAINS  WERE MISSED.  <KIND OF IN OUR WESTERN OKLAHOMA, AREA, I THINK THE MOODS ARE A  LITTLE MORE QUESTINABLE. MONEY IS A LITTLE TIGHT. JUST KIND OF A  DIFFERENT ATMOSPHERE THERE> BUT IN AREAS WHERE MOISTURE WAS PLENTIFUL,  COTTON PICKERS ARE IN HIGH DEMAND.  <;LATE 16 EARLY 17 FIRST HALF OF JANUARY, WE STARTED TO SEE COTTON  PICKER PRCIES, YOU CAN JSUT TELL THEY'RE HIGHER> <WE'RE SEEING A LOT OF GUYS WANTING TO GET NEW EUQPMENT AND  GET OUT THERE AND PLANT SOME MORE ACRES> WESTERN EQUIPMENT SAYS THE DEMAND IS SO HIGH,  THEY'RE PRETTY MUCH SOLD OUT OF NEW COTTON  PICKER BALERS  BUT IT'S MORE THAN JUST COTTON EQUIPMENT. THE USED MARKET IS ALSO SELLING FAST.   <USED TRACTOR PRICES, HAY BALERS, ICNREDIBLE, STRONG VALUES DOWNT  HERE IN NORTH TEXAS, OKLAHOMA, KIND OF SHOWED UP IN 2016, SO  WHATEVER HAPPENS OUT THERE, IF IT'S A MARKET CHANGES OR THE  WEATHER IS IN A GOOD WAY FOR PEOPOE,K THERE'S JUST MORE BUYER  INTEREST> THAT INTEREST IN USED IS SOMETHING LOCAL DEALERS  WANT TO GENERATE.  <WE'RE TRYING TO GET THE GUYS TO HANG ONTO THEM A LITTLE LONGER.  AND MAINTENCANCE, AND HAVING PROGERAMS IN PLACE AND SERVICE  PROGRAMS IN PLACE> PRAIRIE LAND PARTNERS COVERS MUCH OF KANSAS.  AND THEY SAY WITH COMMODITY PRICES, AREA  FARMERS ARE INTERSETED IN GETTING MORE LIFE OUT  OF EQUIPMENT.  <THERE'S DEFINITELY MORE INTEREST IN REPAIRING WHAT THYE HAVE. YOU  KNOW MAKING, OPTIMIZING THEIR USED EQUIPMENT AND MAYBE  STAYING IWTH IT FOR ANOTHER YEAR> <IT AIS ALL ABOUT UPTIME. THAT IS ONE OF HTE MOST IMPORTANT THINGS  THAT DRIVES OUR CUSTOMERS. WHEN IT'S PLANTING SEASON, SPRAYING  SEASON, HARVEST SEASON, THEY CAN NOT AFFORD DOWN TIME, AND SO  UPTIME IS THE BIG DRIVER> PLANTING MAY BE A FEW MONTHS AWAY FOR SOME  FARMERS, BUT DEALERS SAY PREPERATION FOR A SMOOTH SEASON SHOULD START NOW.  <LET'S GET IT READY TO RUN. LET'S BRING IT ON. IS THER EANYTHING WE  NEED TO DO TO THIS? WHAT PARTS DO WE NEED TO CHANGE? WHEN YOU  GET YOUR CONSUMABLES READY TO GO AND SO LET'S JUST GET IT READY  TO RUN> <THEY TRUST HTE MECHANICS, THEY TRUST OUR SHOPS, AND THEY FEEL LIKE WE CAN REBUILD THE MACHINE AND GET IT BACK TO USEABLE  CONDITION, ADD MORE LIFE TO THAT MACHINE,THE DECISION TO HOLD OR BUY ISN'T AN EASY ONE FOR  GROWERS.  BUT DEALERS SAY IF YOU'RE TRYING TO GET MORE  YEARS OUT OF WHAT YOU HAVE, MAKING SURE EACH  PIECE OF USED MACHINE IS RUNNING ON ALL  CYLINDERS SHOULD BE A PRIORITY TO KICK OFF 2017.

TEASE
ALRIGHT, WHEN WE COME BACK, MACHINERY PETE  REJOINS US FOR TRACTOR TALES. 

TRACTOR TALES
WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES FOLKS.  WE HEAD TO OHIO THIS WEEK FOR A LOOK AT AN ALLIS CHALMERS FROM A VERY TALENTED COLLECTOR. BRUCE BAKER HAS FUN WITH THIS WORKHORSE IN THE WINTER.  HE TELLS US THIS ORANGE BEAUTY STILL GETS A GOOD WORKOUT.  RARE TRACTOR DUE TO THE FACT THAT ITS A HYDROSTATIC DRIVE.  I BOUGHT THIS ALLIS CHALMERS A COUPLE OF YEARS AGO AGO AT THE TRI STATE GAS ENGINE SHOW AT POTER INDIANA DONE A LITTLE OVER HAUL WORK ON IT.  AND I MOUNTED THIS SNOW BLOWER THAT YOU SEEING IN THE FRONT BUT IT WAS GEARED WAY TOO FAST FOR SNOW. THAT WAS OVER 3 OR 4 INCHES DEEP.  SO WE CONVERTED THIS  TRACTOR TO A HYDROSTATIC DRIVE WE ADDED A HYDRAULIC PUMP THAT RUNS OFF THE MOTOR I GOT A HYDRAULIC MOTOR THAT GOES ON THE PTO SHAFT AND BY USING A VARIABLE SPEED HYDRAULIC CONTROL IT WORKED THE SAME AS YOUR HYDROSTATIC LAWN TRACTOR I CAN SLOW DOWN JUST TO NOTHING AND JUST BARELY CREEP SO IF IM IN SNOW A COUPLE FEET DEEP I CAN REGULATE MY SPEED TO WHATEVER IT REQUIRED IT COULD BE THE WORLDS ONLY ALLIS CHALMERS B THAT'S HYDROSTATIC DRIVE.  I DON'T KNOW THAT FOR SURE BUT I'VE NEVER SEEN ANOTHER LIKE IT.   I CAN SET ON THE SEAT ICAN CHANGE THE DIRECTION OF THE BLOWING SNOW JUST BY PUWHING A LITTLE BUTTON HERE ON THE DASH.  IT WOULD HAVE BEEN FOR A SMALL FARMER PROBABLY 40 TO 80 ACRES. IT WAS ABOUT 23 HORSE POWER, IT WOULD HAVE PULLED A ONE OR TWO BOTTOM PLOW.  PROBABLY PULL ABOUT AN EIGHT OR NINE FOOT DISK AND IT WOULD HAVE HAD ENOUGH ROOM FOR A 2 ROW CULTIVATOR.

COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE
TODAY'S COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE GOES TO THE  CHURCH OF THE BIG HOLE IN WISDOM, MONTANTA.  THEY TELL US IT'S A BEATUFIUL CHURCH, LOKATEDIN A  REMOTE AREA AND VILLAGE IN MONTANTA.  THANK YOU FOR SENDING THAT IN.  AS ALWAYS WE WANT TO LEARN ABOUT YOUR HOME  CHURCH AS WELL... SALUTES CAN BE SENT TO THE  ADDRESS ON THE SCREEN.  STAY WITH US - FROM THE FARM PHOTOS ARE NEXT.

FROM THE FARM
WELL, PLANTING IS APPROACHING QUICKLY FOR  FARMERS IN TEXAS. ALLEN WAS TESTING OUT HTE NEW  SPRAYER THIS WEEK, WHEN A COYOTE DECED TO JOIN  IN ON THE FUN.  AND HERE'S A PICTURE OF SOME EARLY SEASON  SOYBEANS IN BRAZIL... LOOK AT THOSE PLANTS LOADED  WITH PODS. . SOME REPORTS SHOWING THE EARLY  SEASON VARITIES PRODUCING BETTER THAN EXPECTED  YIELDS.  AND MIKE WE HAD HER NINETY DAY FORECAST THIS WEEK I MEAN WHEN  WE LOOK IT WE SEE MASSIVE IMPROVEMENTS IN THE DROUGHT IN CALIFORNIA. BUT WHEN WE TALK ABOUT THE PLAINS IN THE SOUTHEAST  OVER THE NEXT NINETY DAYS YOU THINK THEY SEE SOME RELIEF. BUT I DON'T HAVE EITHER ONE OF THEM IN BELOW NORMAL BUT I DON'T HAVE  THEM IN ABOVE NORMAL EITHER. AT THE CURRENT PATTERN DOES NOT SHOW RELIEF FOR ANY  OF THOSE AREAS IS LACKING TO KEEP EATING AWAY AT THE DROUGHT THAT  COULD BE GO BACK TO THAT PATTERN IN THE MONTH. PERHAPS  BUT  THERE 'S LOT OF QUESTION MARKS IS WE HAVE IN THE SPRING AND  MOISTER 'S HARDER THAT 'S THE HARD TO PREDICT. THAT'S THE THING I'M  MORE CONFIDENT ON THE TEMPERATURES BOTH IN THE PRECIP YEAH,  WELL WE WANT TO HEARR FROM YOU EVEN SEND YOUR PICTURES TO US AT MAILBAG-AT-U-S-FARM-REPORT-DOT- COM OR CHECK US OUT ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER.

CLOSE
FOR JOHN AND MIKE, I'M TYNE MORGAN. THANK  YOU FOR WATCHING U-S FARM REPORT.  BE SURE TO  JOIN US RIGHT HERE AGAIN NEXT WEEK, AS WE WORK  TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND,  EVERYONE. 

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