USFR Weekly Recap - January 6-7, 2018

January 6, 2018 03:30 AM
 
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TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
JANUARY 6-7, 2018

HEADLINES

WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M TYNE MORGAN,  AND HERE'S WHAT'S IN STORE OVER THE NEXT 60  MINUTES.  THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION KICKING OFF THE NEW  YEAR BY KEEPING THE PROMISE TO RENEGOTIATE  TRADE DEALS.   < "WELL, WHAT WE WANT TO POINT OUT IS HOW CRITICAL KOKRUS  HAS BEEN FOR BEEF EXPORT GROWTH TO KOREA> WHY THE BEEF INDUSTRY IS ON EDGE.  IT'S CHANGING APPETITES FROM MILLENNIALS THAT  MAJOR FOOD COMPANIES ARE CATERING TOO.  <"THEY ARE THE PURCHASE POWER WITH A DIFFERENT TYPE OF  EXPECTATION THAT WE HAVE TO WORK TOGETHER TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO  MEET,"> THAT'S OUR FARM JOURNAL REPORT. HE'S AN OUTLAW WHOSE LIFE REMAINS A MYSTERY.  (HE DECIDED IT WAS TIME TO LEAVE BEFORE THEY HUNG HIM SO HE  BROKE LOOSE BUT HE SHOT AND KILLED TWO DEPUTIES :06) > THE TALE OF BILLY THE KID AS WE TRAVEL WITH  AMERICAN COUNTRYSIDE.  AND IN JOHN'S WORLD.  <U.S. FARM REPORT - BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE DEPENDABLE, LONG  LASTING, CHEVY SILVERADO.>

KORUS, TRADE
NOW FOR THE NEWS THAT MOVED THE MARKETS THIS  WEEK, THE PRESIDENT USHERING IN THE NEW YEAR BY  FOLLOWING THROUGH ON A CAMPAIGN PROMISE. TO  RENEGOTIATE TRADE DEALS. AND THE NEXT ITEM ON  THAT DOCKET IS TRADE RELATIONS WITH KOREA.   NEGOTIATIONS OF HTE UNITED STATES KOREA FREE  TRADE AGREEMENTS, OR KORUS, KICKED OFF FRIDAY. THAT'S AFTER SOUTH KOREA'S PARLIAMNET FINALLY  SIGNED OFF ON THE TALKS.   MICHEL BEEMAN, ASSISTANCE U-S TRADE  REPRESENATIVE FOR JAPAN AND KOREA LED THE  DISCUSSIONS FOR THE U-S/  THE ADMINSTRATION MAKING IT CLEAR THE TRADE  DEFICIT IS A MAJOR CONCERN WITH KOREA. BUT WITHOUT DETAILING WHAT HE WOULD LIEK TO SEE  DONE, THE PRESIDENT MAY BE WORKING TOWARD  TWEAKS, AND NOT A COMPLETE OVERHAUL OF HTE 5- YEAR OLD DEAL. BUT IT'S A STRONG MARKET FOR AG, AS KOREA IS THE  5TH LARGEST BUYER OF U-S AG GOODS, TOTALLING  6  POINT 2 BILLION IN 2016. LEADING THAT CHARGE IS  BEEF.  < "WELL, WHAT WE WANT TO POINT OUT IS HOW CRITICAL KOKRUS  HAS BEEN FOR BEEF EXPORT GROWTH TO KOREA. WE WERE AT A 40 PERCENT TARIFF RATE BACK WHEN THE KORUS AGREEMENT TOOK AFFECT  THAT WAS 5 YEARS AGO. THAT RATE HAS GONE DOWN NOW TO 24  PERCENT. WE'VE EXPERIENCED EXCEPTIONAL GROWTH IN KOREA OVER  THOSE PAST FIVE YEARS. THAT HAS BEEN A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR."   NATIONAL CATTLEMAN'S BEEF ASSOCIATION SAYS  KOREA IS THE INDUSTRY'S SECOND LARGEST  CUSTOMER, WITH 1 BILLION DOLLARS WORTH OF SALES  ANUALLY, AND IT'S THE AGREEMENT HELPING BEEF  MAINTAIN ITS COMPETEITIVE EDGE.  KOREA IS ALSO A LARGE MARKET FOR CORN AND  FRESH FRUIT. 

TRUMP AT FARM BUREAU CONVENTION
TRUMP'S STANCE ON TRADE COULD BECOME MORE  CLEAR AFTER MONDAY.  THAT'S AS THE PRESIDENT DOIGN SOMETHING NO  PRESIDENT HAS DONE IN NEARLY 30 YEARS--  ADDRESSING THE ANNUAL FARM BUREAU CONVENTION.  HE'S SCHEDULED TO SPEAK ON MONDAY AFTERNOON  TO THE CROWD IN NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE.  FARM JOURNAL WASHINGTON CORRESPONDANT JIM  WIESEMEYER TELLING FARM REPORT THAT TRUMP WILL  BE IN HIS ELEMENT,  <LETS FACE IT. 60 PERCENT OR MORE  OF RURAL AMEIRCA VOTES  CONSERVATIVE THAT'S FACTS. AND THEY DEFINTIELY VOTED FOR HIM THSI  PAST ELECTION. HE CATERS TO THAT. I DON'T KNOW WHETHER IT WILL BE A  CAMPAN LIKE SPEECH THERE OR A MORE OF A POLICY SPEECH. > WIESEMERY SAYS WHILE THERE'S UNCERTAINTY  SURROUNDING WHAT THE PRESIDENT WILL COVER,  HE'LL DEFINITELY TALK TRADE, HOPEFULLY  ADDRESSING AGRICULTURE'S GROWING CONCERNS  OVER THE FATE OF TRADE AGREEMENTS LIKE NAFTA. 

DOW HITS 25K
THE DOW KICKING OFFTHE NEW YEAR BY BREAKING  NEW RECORDS. THE DOW BLEW PAST THE 25 THOUSAND MARK  THURSDAY FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER. OTHER INDEXES ALSO HITTING NEW HIGHS. THE MOMENTUM DRIVEN BY A STRONG PRIVATE JOBS  REPORT AND GROWTH IN MAJOR ECONOMIES.  THE MINUTES FROM THE LAST FEDERAL RESERVE  MEETING, WHERRE OFFICIALS DECIDED TO RAISE  INTEREST RATES AGAIN, ALSO ADDING TO THE BULLISH  TRADE. 

WEATHER
THOSE ARE THE HEADLINES...METEOROLOGIST MIKE  HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH WEATHER... MIKE, THE  BRUTAL COLD MAKING HEADLINES THIS WEEK.. BUT  DOES IT STICK AROUND?  THANKS TIME THE SHORT ANSWER IS NO. IT'S GOING TO BE COLD JUST NOT  AS COLD AS WE'VE SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK OR TWO. LOOK AT THE  DROUGHT MONITOR STARTING TO SEE MORE AND MORE MODERATE SEVERE  DROUGHT ACROSS THE COUNTRY. WE'RE NOT SEEING QUITE AS MUCH  EXTREME DROUGHT IN ARKANSAS AS YOU CAN SEE WHEN WE GO BACK  A MONTH. THERE'S A LITTLE BIT MORE OF THAT DEVELOPING BUT WHAT  WE'VE SEEN IS THINGS EXPANDING WESTWARD INTO THE PLAINS OVER  THE LAST THREE OR FOUR WEEKS. THAT ALSO EXPANDING THROUGH PARTS  OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE SOUTHWEST. WE CONTINUE TO SEE THOSE  DRY AREAS OBVIOUSLY WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO MONTANA. HERE'S  THE MAPS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS WEEK COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEM  IN THE EAST TENNESSEE VALLEY NUMBER ONE THE OTHER ONE IN  CANADA ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT WILL BE PRODUCING SOME SNOW  FROM THE OHIO RIVER NORTHWARD MAINLY RAIN SOUTH OF THERE. AND  YOU CAN SEE DRY WEATHER UNTIL YOU GET TO THE WEST COAST. ANOTHER  COLD FRONT COMING IN OUT WEST. WE HAVEN'T HAD THAT FOR A FEW  WEEKS ANYWAY BUT NOW WE ARE SEEING SOME THINGS COMING INTO  THE WEST COAST ONCE WE CHANGE THAT PATTERN A LITTLE BIT INSTEAD  OF THE BIG TROUGH IN THE EAST AND A RIDGE OUT WEST WE'RE STARTING  TO SEE AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT OF A TROUGH OUT WEST. NOW I CAN SEE AS  WE HEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE FIRST SYSTEM OFFSHORE HIGH  PRESSURE DOMINATING THE EAST. AND THEN YOU CAN SEE SOME SNOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS A LITTLE  BIT OF RAIN AND SNOW EASTERN ROCKIES ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMING  INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY THEN THAT FIRST SYSTEM  MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES STILL SOME SNOW THERE. RAIN  SNOW MAY GO UP INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS WE HEAD  THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE NEXT SYSTEM KIND OF DIVING TOWARD THE  SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEST WITH A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN  SNOW. WE'LL CHECK THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST IN OUR NEXT HALF  HOUR.

TEASE
THANKS, MIKE. WHEN WE COME BACK, OUR MARKETING  DISCUSSION WILL LOOK AT THE IMPRESSIVE  MOMENTUM IN THE STOCK MARKET.  CRAIG VANDYKE AND PAUL GEORGY JOIN ME NEXT. 

ROUNDTABLE 1
WELL WELCOME BACK TO US FARM REPORT THIS WEEKEND. WE HAVE A NEW GUEST WITH US STEVE GEORGY OF ALLENDALE THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US. THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME ON. THIS IS CERTAINLY A PLEASURE. AND THEN CRAIG VAN DYKE BOTH COME IN FROM CHICAGO. NOT AN EASY TRAVEL THIS WEEK. LITTLE BIT OF A ROUGH RIDE ON THE WAY IN HERE. EAST COAST EVEN MORE OF A ROUGH RIDE THAN HERE ON INTERSTATE 80. BUT YOU KNOW NEXT WEEK WE HAVE USDA REPORT COMING OUT JANUARY. TYPICALLY THOUGH THAT JANUARY REPORT IS TYPICALLY A MARKET MOVER. RIGHT. YES. USUALLY THE ONLY THING I CAN TELL YOU ABOUT THE REPORT IS THAT WE WILL HAVE VOLATILITY. WE HAVEN'T SEEN THAT IN A WHILE. BUT AS FAR AS WHETHER OR NOT IT'S BULLISH OR BEARISH I THINK THAT'S STILL UP FOR GRABS BUT THAT REPORT USUALLY HAS A PRETTY GOOD MARKET MOVER. BASED ON THE FACT THAT WE WILL PROBABLY BE A MARKET MOVER. YOU KNOW CRAIG WHAT INSIGHT CAN YOU GIVE. I MEAN WE KNOW THAT THIS CORN CROPS BIG THAT'S NOT GOING TO BE A SURPRISE BUT WHAT SURPRISE. COULD WE HAVE COME OUT. I THINK YOU'VE GOT TWO THINGS HERE. AS FAR AS CORN GOES AND BEANS GO. YOU KNOW THE CORN CROP WE RAISED THAT YIELD PRETTY FAST BACK AND BACK IN THE FALL. SO I THINK YOU DO HAVE A SHOT TO SEE THE USDA MAYBE TONE THAT DOWN A LITTLE BIT. MAYBE WE SEE THEM RAISE SOME FEED USAGE SLIGHTLY THERE. SO I THINK YOU COULD SEE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT MAYBE LEANING TOWARDS THE MORE FRIENDLY SIDE IN THE CORN MARKET. YOU KNOW THE CORN MARKET DOES SEEM LIKE IT'S FOUND VALUE HERE AT THE 350 LEVEL. WE'VE BEEN SEEING TRADING THAT FOR YOU KNOW FOUR OR FIVE MONTHS NOW. SO THE FACT THAT THE MARKETS KIND OF HOLDING THIS LEVEL WE CAN GET SOMETHING TO SPUR YOU KNOW SPUR THE MARKET A LITTLE TO THE UPSIDE PUSH FUNDS TO BUY BUY SOME BACK THAT HE COULD SEE SOME EXCITEMENT THERE AND ON THE BEAN SIDE. YOU KNOW I THINK YOU'VE GOT. YOU KNOW EXPORTS HAVE STRUGGLED. SO I'M A LITTLE MORE CONCERNED. YES THE BEAN MARKET HAS MAYBE BUILT SOME OF THAT IN COMING INTO THIS REPORT BUT I'M CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL SLIGHT RAISE AND YIELD THERE AGAIN. WHAT'S THIS CARRY OUT GOING TO BE LOOKING LIKE ON THIS REPORT. ALL RIGHT LET'S FOLLOW UP ON A COUPLE OF THINGS HE SAID. FIRST OFF BEANS. YOU KNOW USDA HAD KIND OF TRIMMED BEANS JUST A LITTLE BIT. DO YOU THINK POSSIBLY THEY COULD DO THAT AGAIN IN THIS NEXT REPORT. YOU KNOW BEAN CARRYOUT OUT RIGHT NOW IS A 445 MILLION. THE SCARY THING ON BEING JUST LIKE CRAIG SAID IT'S GOING TO BE EXPORTS. WHEN YOU LOOK AT EXPORTS RIGHT NOW WE'RE RUNNING 15 PERCENT BEHIND THE FIVE YEAR AVERAGE. NOW THAT'S WELL BEHIND WHERE USDA PACE IS. SO WHEN YOU LOOK AT THAT MOVING FORWARD 15 PERCENT BEHIND THE PACE BEHIND THE FIVE YEAR AVERAGE COULD LEAD UP TO SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO 300 MILLION DIFFERENCE FROM WHERE USDA IS AT. ENORMOUSLY. THE SCARY NUMBER. NOT TO SAY THEY'LL MAKE THAT KIND OF A JUMP. RIGHT. BUT WE HAVE TO BE AWARE OF THAT. BUT DOES THE TRADE KNOW THAT. I MEAN WOULD THAT COME AS A SURPRISE TO THE TRADE IF WE DID SEE USDA TURN THAT BACK. THEY PROBABLY WON'T DO AS MUCH BUT I DON'T BELIEVE THAT IT WILL BE SUCH A DIFFERENCE BECAUSE YOU MIGHT HAVE EXPORT SALES MAKE AN ADJUSTMENT RIGHT. BUT THEN AS YOU TALK TO FARMERS OUT THERE AND YOU TALK TO PRODUCERS THE YIELDS AS THE FINISHED UP HARVEST WE SAW YIELDS END UP BECOMING A LITTLE BIT LOWER OR LESS EXCITING THAN WHEN WE FIRST STARTED HARVEST. SO DOES USDA KIND OF KEEP CARRY OUT THE BALLOON AND A LITTLE BIT EXPORT SALES KIND OF TRIMLY YOU KNOW OR WE COULD SEE A BIG MOVE FOR EXPORT SALES BUT THE YIELD IF WE DO DROP THAT A LITTLE BIT THAT COULD OFFSET SOME. SO THEN WHAT ABOUT CORN I MEAN YOU MENTIONED THAT WE COULD SEE USDA TURN THAT PRODUCTION NUMBER. BUT I MEAN WHEN YOU LOOK AT DEMAND DOMESTICALLY WHEN YOU LOOK AT PRODUCTION HOW BIG OF A CHUNK DO WE NEED TO SEE TAKING OUT TO REALLY MAKE A DIFFERENCE. WELL THAT'S PART OF MY CONCERN I THINK YOU KNOW WE HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO SEE A SLIGHT RALLY HERE. BUT YOU KNOW I'M NOT SEEING ANYTHING CURRENTLY IN THE CORN MARKET AS FAR AS THE SPREADS NARROWING VOLATILITY IS JUST NOTHING. AND YOU KNOW THAT'S A GOOD TIME WHEN YOU LEAST EXPECT IT TO EXPECTED. BUT YOU KNOW ARE WE TALKING A 10 15 CENT RALLY YOU KNOW 30 OR 40 CENTS SEEMS A LITTLE EXTREME IN THE NEAR TERM. REAL QUICK THIS WEEK WILD WEATHER I MEAN WE'VE HAD THIS COLD WEATHER IN THE PLAINS THEY'VE BEEN SO DRY. NOT A LOT OF SNOW COVER ON SOME OF THAT WHEAT. WE HEARD OF SOME POSSIBLE WINTER KILLS AND POSSIBLE DAMAGE OUT THERE BUT YOU KNOW THAT MAY MATTER ON SOME OF THESE FARMER'S FARMS THEY AND WHEN THEY LOOK AT THE FINAL YIELD. BUT IN THE BIGGER PICTURE HOW DOES THAT IMPACT THIS MASSIVE SUPPLY THAT WE HAVE OUT THERE. YOU KNOW WHEN WE LOOK AT YOU LOOK AT WHEAT IN GENERAL LIKE YOU SAID IT IS NOT A DOMESTIC ISSUE. YOU COULD TALK WINTER KILL WE TYPICALLY KILL OFF THE WEED A COUPLE OF TIMES BEFORE IT'S HARVESTED ANYWAY. BUT THE BIGGER ISSUE WILL BE THE GLOBAL SUPPLY. WE'VE GOT A LOT OF WE'VE GOT A LOT OF SUPPLY OUT THERE AS FAR AS THE GLOBE NOT JUST THE BLACK SEA REGION YOU'RE TALKING AUSTRALIA YOU'RE TALKING US WITH MASSIVE CARRY OUT AS WELL SO WE DO HAVE A BIGGER ISSUE THAN JUST OUR OWN HERE. ALL RIGHT WE NEED TO TAKE A QUICK BREAK BUT SO MUCH MORE TO TALK ABOUT I MEAN THE IMPRESSIVE MOMENTUM IN THE DOW THIS WEEK. WE'LL TAKE A LOOK AT THE STOCK MARKET. ALSO COTTON AND CATTLE HAVE BEEN PRETTY FUN TO TALK ABOUT RECENTLY BUT WILL THAT CONTINUE. WE'LL ASK OUR ANALYSTS WHEN WE COME BACK ON U.S. FARM REPORT.

ROUNDTABLE 2
ALL RIGHT. WELCOME BACK TO U.S. FARM REPORT THIS WEEKEND. CRAIG YOU KNOW IT'S NOT BEEN FUN TO TALK ABOUT CORN AND SOYBEAN PRICES. I MEAN YOU LOOK AT THESE SLUGGISH MOMENTUM THAT WE'VE SEEN BUT COTTON HAS KIND OF BEEN THE SHINING STAR THIS PAST YEAR. THAT IS THAT CONTINUING INTO THE NEW YEAR.  COTTON HAS BEEN AN EXCITING TRADE COMING INTO THIS WEEK. WE'VE HAD TEN CONSECUTIVE WEEKLY HIGHER CLOSES. LOOKS LIKE THIS WEEK WE WON'T. WE'RE NOT GOING TO HAVE THAT BIG MOVE IN COTTON ON FRIDAY AS FAR AS WE MADE A NEW CONTRACT HIGH AND CLOSE LOWER SO SOME WARNING SIGNS HERE MAYBE SOME REVERSAL. NOW WE'VE ALSO GOT OPEN INTEREST FLIRTING WITH NINE YEAR HIGHS. WE'VE GOT MANAGE MONEY SITTING NEAR RECORD LONG. SO I'M A LITTLE SKEPTICAL HERE OF THE COTTON AND THE WAY IT'S TRADING AND THE STRENGTH THAT WE'VE SEEN FOR TWO MONTHS STRAIGHT. BUT IT SEEMS LIKE THAT IS GOING TO BUY SOME ACRES THIS NEXT SEASON. ABSOLUTELY. THERE'S WITHOUT QUESTION A LOT OF FOLKS THAT I TALKED TO WORK WITH THE NEW LOOK AT THE PRICE OF WHEAT VERSUS WHAT YOU GUYS CAN DO ON COTTON RIGHT NOW. YOU'RE GOING TO SEE YOU KNOW THE TEXAS OKLAHOMA THAT AREA YOU'RE GOING TO SEE PLENTY OF COTTON ACRES COMING IN ESPECIALLY WITH THE DEC BOARD AT NEW CONTRACT HIGHS 75 74 CENTS. GUYS CAN MAKE GOOD MONEY THERE VERSUS WHAT THEY'RE GOING TO DO IN THE WHEAT MARKET. WELL STEVE IT'S ALSO BEEN FUN TO WATCH THE STOCK MARKET. I MEAN YOU LOOK AT WHAT HAPPENED IN 2017 AND THEN THE KICKOFF 2018 BY BREAKING 25000 IN THE DOW. I MEAN YOU KNOW THIS MOMENTUM AND EVERYONE WANTS TO KNOW WHEN AND IF THIS WILL SPILL OVER INTO U.S. AG COMMODITIES. YOU KNOW WHEN YOU SEE THAT I'M NOT SURE WHEN IT'S GOING TO STOP. BUT YOU LOOK AT IT AND IT WAS GOING TO BE THAT 25000 WAS THAT BENCHMARK WE WERE GOING TO GET TO. NOW WE'VE SURPASSED IT BUT THAT WAS ALSO 24. NOW WE'RE AT 25. WHAT'S GOING TO CHANGE YET WE'RE STILL LOOKING FOR THAT. BUT I DO FEEL THAT MOVING FORWARD THIS YEAR COULD BE VERY IMPORTANT BECAUSE AS YOU START SEEING SOME OF YOUR INDEX FUNDS LOOKING TO PLACE MONEY WHERE IS IT GOING TO GO. YOU'RE GOING TO SEE HIM PUT IT INTO A STOCK MARKET THAT'S ALREADY RISEN THAT HAS AT TWENTY FIVE. HOW HIGH IS IT GOING. I DON'T KNOW. BUT WHEN YOU LOOK AT COMMODITIES AS A WHOLE AND YOU LOOK AT HOW CHEAP THEY ARE AND WHERE THEY'VE BEEN OVER THE LAST 10 15 YEARS IT MIGHT BE SOMETHING TO INVEST INTO JUST BECAUSE THEY'RE CHEAP. AND ARE WE SEEING SOME OF THAT MONEY MOVE TO ENERGY. I MEAN LOOK AT OIL. ENERGY HAS BEEN FANTASTIC AND YOU'VE GOT CRUDE UP ABOUT 50 PERCENT IN THE PAST SIX MONTHS SO WE'RE STARTING TO SEE THE ENERGY MARKET CATCH A BIT. AND MAYBE THAT'S THE FIRST SIGN THAT YOU KNOW WE ARE STARTING TO SEE A TRANSITION OF YOU KNOW THE MARKET COMING BACK TO COMMODITIES A LITTLE BIT. NOW DON'T EXCLUDE THE FUNDAMENTAL SIDE YOU KNOW. YES. CASH FLOWS ARE IMPORTANT BUT YOU KNOW AS WE'VE SEEN WE CAN SEE BIG MOVEMENT IN MANAGE MONEY AND FUNDS BUT IT DOESN'T NECESSARILY MEAN PRICES ARE GOING TO GET TERRIBLY OUT OF CONTROL WITH FUNDAMENTALS BEING ON THE BEARISH AND AS FAR AS THE GRAIN MARKET GOES WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE STOCK MARKET AND YOU LOOK THE PRESIDENT'S FISCAL POLICY AND THEN ALSO THIS WEEK OR NEXT WEEK HE'S ADDRESSING FARMERS AND RANCHERS THAT FARM BUREAU CONVENTION. LOT OF FARMERS AND RANCHERS WANTING TO GET A BETTER IDEA OF HIS STANCE ON TRADE. BUT WHEN YOU LOOK AT TRADE IN CHICAGO IS THE UNCERTAINTY AROUND DEALS LIKE NAFTA AND RENEGOTIATING AND KOORIS. IS THAT IMPACTING PRICES AT THIS POINT. I DON'T FEEL THAT IT IS YET. NOT FOR THE GRAIN MARKETS THAT MAY HAVE MORE TO DO WITH LIVESTOCK THAN IT DOES WITH GRAINS BUT WITH GRAINS OR TRADE BETWEEN CANADA AND MEXICO. YOU'RE NOT GOING TO SEE A LOT OF THAT CHANGE. AND SO I DON'T FEEL THAT IT'S GOING TO BE AS BIG OF AN IMPACT AT LEAST FOR THE GRAIN MARKETS AS SOME OF THESE OTHER MARKETS. BUT SOME OF THESE OTHER MARKETS SPEAKING OF THOSE CATTLE KNOW CATTLE HAVE BEEN FUN TO TALK ABOUT TOO BUT DID NOT HAVE A GOOD DAY ON FRIDAY. WHAT'S GOING ON. VERY VOLATILE LATELY IN THE CATTLE MARKET. YOU KNOW WE'VE WE'VE COME OFF A PRETTY BIG DIP IN DECEMBER WE SAW A NICE NICE BID EARLY THE BEGINNING TO START 2018. THE CATTLE MARKET CAME BACK FILLED THOSE GAPS HERE ON FRIDAY WITH A PRETTY UGLY CLOSE. YOU KNOW DEMAND HAS KEPT THIS CATTLE MARKET STRONG. THERE'S NO SURPRISE WE'VE GOT PLENTY OF SUPPLY OUT THERE. IF WE'RE GOING TO SEE THE ANCHOR WE'VE GOT TO SEE DEMAND CONTINUE TO CARRY IT. OTHERWISE WE KNOW WHAT WE'VE GOT ON FEED. PERFORMANCES HALFWAY DECENT WEATHER IS ALRIGHT REALLY FOR BETTER PERFORMANCE. SO THE DEMAND DEMAND DROPS OUT. WE'RE GOING TO STRUGGLE WITH WITH WHAT WE'VE GOT ON FEED NOW. YOU KNOW DEMAND HAS ALSO BEEN DECENT FOR PORK. WHAT ABOUT HOT LIKE WHERE DO YOU SEE THE HOG PRICES GO HOG PRICES RIGHT NOW. I MEAN WHEN YOU SEE CATTLE AND AS IT'S STRUGGLED HERE LATELY HOGS HAVE STILL MAINTAINED WHERE THEY WERE THE BIGGER TALKED OUT OF HOGS IS GOING TO BE WHAT'S GOING ON WITH THE OLYMPICS. THAT'S BEEN CHATTER SOUTH KOREA. NOW WE KNOW WHAT HAPPENED AS FAR AS THE MEN WHEN IT WAS IN CHINA. SO THE OLYMPICS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT OR NOT. BUT NOT ONLY THAT IT'S ALSO A LOT OF CHATTER RIGHT NOW WITH BIRD FLU. SO THAT HAS BECOME FRONT AND CENTER AGAIN. SO WE NEED TO WATCH FOR THAT DEMAND TO SOUTH KOREA HAS BEEN VERY VERY STRONG FOR PORK. ALL RIGHT. AND WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH THAT AS WE RENEGOTIATE COURSE AS WELL WHAT HAPPENS THERE. WE NEED TO TAKE A QUICK BREAK. WHEN WE COME BACK WE'LL GET THE CLOSING THOUGHTS.

MARKETS NOW
ALL RIGHT WELCOME BACK. TIME NOW FOR CLOSING THOUGHTS. CRAIG YOU KNOW IT'S THE FIRST WEEK OF THE YEAR. I THINK YOU KNOW LOOK IN LOOKING OUT LONG TERM HERE YOU KNOW THERE IS GOING TO BE OPPORTUNITIES THAT COME AND GO. SO I THINK FOR THE FIRST SHOW OF THE YEAR I THINK IT'S IMPORTANT TO SAY THAT. BE READY TO MANAGE THOSE OPPORTUNITIES COME ALONG. THEY'VE COME ALONG IT SEEMS ONCE EVERY YEAR. BE READY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THAT AS SOON AS IT COMES. DEFINITELY. I DEFINITELY AGREE WITH WHAT CRAIG SAID. BUT ONE THING TO ALSO LOOK FORWARD TO IN THE SHORT TERM THIS REPORT. HOW DO WE HOW DO WE MANAGE THIS REPORT WITH THE VOLATILITY WE'VE SEEN. WE CAN'T SEE PRICES WORK THEMSELVES BACK DOWN FARMERS DON'T WANT ANY MORE LOWER PRICES. SO SOMETHING TO TAKE EFFECT THERE. LOOK TO FIND SOME PROTECTION AS WE GET INTO THIS IF NEED BE TALKED TO YOUR GUYS AND GET THAT DONE. ALL RIGHT THANK YOU BOTH FOR BEING HERE. HAPPY NEW YEAR TO YOU. STAY WITH US. WE HAVE JOHN PHIPPS. HE JOINS US NEXT.

JOHN’S WORLD
JOHN IS STILL COPING WITH HIS ROLE CHANGE ON THE  FARM... EVEN IN THE NEW YEAR.  HE HAS MORE IN JOHN'S WORLD.  WELL IT'S COME TO THIS. IT FINALLY GOT COLD OUTSIDE AND I DECIDED I  NEEDED SOMETHING A LITTLE BIT THICKER TO WEAR THAN THE JACKETS I  HAD ON. WENT TO THE OLD CLOSET TO PULL OUT SOME FAITHFUL OLD WORK  JACKETS AND THERE WAS NOTHING THERE. LAST SUMMER JAN WENT THROUGH MY OUTERWEAR AND DECIDED THAT  STUFF THAT WAS TERRIBLY RIPPED AND FRAYED AND COVERED WITH GREASE  STAINS WERE HISTORY AND IT CAME DOWN TO THIS. I HAD TO GO AND BUY  A WORK JACKET FOR WINTER. TO THE BEST OF MY KNOWLEDGE I HAVE  NEVER EVER DONE THAT. LET ME LOOK. THERE'S NO LOGOS, NO BRANDS,  NO TRADEMARK OTHER THAN THE MANUFACTURER. AND I DON'T THINK... I  CAN'T REMEMBER EVER HAVING TO DO THIS. AT ONE TIME WE COULD  CLOTHE OUR ENTIRE FAMILY WITH SEEDCORN OR MACHINERY JACKETS AS THE BOYS GOT A LITTLE BIT OLDER AND GOT INTO ADULT SIZES. AND WE'VE  ALWAYS HAD THREE OR FOUR WE GAVE THEM AWAY TO COUSINS AND  FRIENDS. AND NOW THAT I'M NOT THE PERSON BUYING THE MACHINERY  AND THE SEED I'M NOT GETTING MY JACKETS SO I WENT OUT AND PAID  FOR ONE. THESE RASCALS ARE EXPENSIVE. I DIDN'T KNOW THAT WAS  GOING TO HAPPEN EITHER. MATTER OF FACT I GOT TO THINKING ABOUT THIS.  THIS COULD BE ONE OF THE REASONS THAT A LOT OF GUYS MY AGE ARE  HAVING TROUBLE PICTURING WHAT IT'S LIKE TO BE RETIRED AND ARE  POSTPONING THAT DECISION BECAUSE MAYBE WE JUST DON'T FEEL LIKE  WE HAVE ANYTHING TO WEAR WHEN THAT TIME COMES. SO IF YOU'RE  WORRIED ABOUT HAVING CIVILIAN CLOTHING YOU'RE NOT ALONE. YOU'RE  NOT GOING TO LOOK LIKE WHAT YOU USED TO LOOK LIKE AND IF YOU'RE A  YOUNG PERSON AND YOU'RE SITTING THERE TRYING TO COMPETE THEN BID  FOR AN OLDER FARMERS OPERATION OR TALK HIM INTO RETIRING SO THAT YOU  CAN TAKE OVER. YOU MIGHT THROW IN THE KICKER OF WORK JACKETS FOR  LIFE. HEY IT WOULD WORK WITH ME. THANKS, JOHN. 

TEASE
THE MILLENNIAL GENERATION MAY BE PLAGUED WITH  STEREOTYPES, BUT IT'S A GERNATION MOVING THE  NEEDLE WITH MAJOR FOOD CHAINS. AND IT'S IMPACTING  HOW BEEF IS MADE AND SOLD. THAT'S OUR FARM  JOURNAL REPORT AFTER THE BREAK. 

HEADLINES
FROM THE STUDIOS OF FARM JOURNAL BROADCAST,  THIS IS U.S. FARM REPORT.  WELCOME BACK TO U-S REPORT THIS WEEKEND. WE  HAVE MUCH MORE AHEAD.  IT'S WILD WEATHER ACROSS THE COUNTRY. TO FRIGID  TEMPS AND SNOW TO NO SNOW IN THE WEST, MOTHER  NATURE THREW SOME PUNCHES THIS WEEK.  SOME MAJOR FOOD COPMANIES ARE CATERING TO  MILLENNIALS. WE'LL TELL YOU HOW IT COULD IMPACT  BEEF DEMAND IN THE FARM JOURNAL REPORT.  HE'S AN OUTLAW WITH A WELL-KNOWN NAME, BUT AN  UNKOWN ENDING TO HIS LIFE STORY. THAT'S AS WE  TRAVEL WITH ANDREW MCCREA.  AND IN CUSTOMER SUPPORT, HOW FORECASTING CAN  BECOME MORE ACCURATE. 

COLD, SNOW, DRY WEATHER
NOW FOR THE HEADLINES.. IT'S A FRIGID START TO THE  NEW YEAR..FROM MUCH OF THE COUNTRY WAITING TO  THAW OUT FROM THE ARTIC BLAST TO THE EAST COAST  GETTING POUNDED WITH A MAJOR SNOW STORM THIS  WEEK, THE WEST IS STILL WAITING ON MUCH NEEDED  MOISTURE TO ARRIVE.  THE EAST COAST SEEING HIGH WINDS AND NOW BURIED  IN SNOW WHILE THE UPPER PLAINS SAW TEMPS DIP  DOWN WAY BELOW ZERO.  BUT IN THE WEST, IT'S THE STORY OF NO SNOW.  THE CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES  CONDUCTING ITS FIRST SNOW SURVEY OF THE SEASON  IN THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUTNINS. OFFICIALS ONLY  MEASURING 4 TENTHS OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT, 3  PERCENT OF THE  THE AVERAGE THIS TIME OF YEAR OF  IS 11 POINT 3 INCHES AT THAT SPOT.   <IT IS A VERY DIFFICULT START FROM TEH SIERRA NEVADA,  SOUTHWARD, WE'VE SEEN VIRTUALLY NO SNOW SO FAR THIS SEASON. THE  SOUTHERN ROCKIES ARE BARE OR ALMOST SO AND REALLY FOR THE  SOUTHERN HALF OR THIRD OF HTE UNITED STATES, IT'S A VERY TOUGH START  TO SNOWPACK SEASON SO THERE'S A LOT OF GROUDN TO MAKE UP AS WE  MOVE FORWARD. >  RIPPEY SAYS THAT'LL BE HARD TO DO, AS HE IS  FORECASTING THE DRYNESS TO CONTINUE ACROSS  BROAD SECTIONS OF HTE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN U- S.  AND THAT'S NOT GOOD NEWS, AS THE LATEST  DROUGHT MONITOR TELLS THE STORY BEST. MORE THAN 46 PERCENT OF THE COUNTRY IS  EXPERIENCING SOME LEVEL OF DROUGHT. DRYNESS  COVERING MUCH OF THE EAST, MIDWEST, SOUTH AND  SOUTHWEST. 

KANSAS WHEAT
KC WHEAT CONTRACTS SEEING GREEN THIS WEEK.  THAT'S AS WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS TOOK A DIVE IN  KANSAS. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST STATE REPORT,  CONDITIONS FELL 14 POINTS IN THE GOOD TO  EXCELLENT CATEGORY. THAT FROM WHEN THE LAST  SURVEY WAS RELEASED.  THE DRYNESS AND LACK OF SNOWPACK IN THE PLAINS  COMBINED WITH BRUTALLY COLD WEATHER, COULD  PROVE TO BE A LETHAL COMBINATION FOR WINTER  WHEAT.  AS FAR AS THE HARD RED WINTER WHEAT BELT, IT'S A CONCERN IN THE  PLAINS. WE THINK ABOUT A QUARTER OF THE CROP SAW SOME DAMAGE  OR AT LEAST TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME  DAMAGE ACROSS ABOUT A QUARTER OF THE BELT MAINLY IN KANSAS BUT  ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR NORTHWESTERN  OKLAHOMA.THERE'S ALSO FEARS ABOUT DAMAGE TO THE SOFT  RED WHEAT CROP IN SOUTHERN ILLOINS, SOUTHWEST  INDIANA AND MISSOURI.  BUT IT'LL EB ANOTHER 4 TO 8 WEEKS BEFORE WE KNOW THE EXTENT OF THE DAMAGE.

OPIOD CRISIS
AS THE OPIOD CRISIS GROWS EVEN MORE SEVERE,  LEAD AG GROUPS LIKE AMERICAN FARM BUREAU AND  NATIONAL FARMERS UNION FINDING ADDICTION IS  PLAGUING RURAL COMMUNITIES HARDER THAN THEIR  URBAN COUNTERPARTS.  NOW THE TWO GROUPS ARE TAKING ACTION,  LAUNCHING A NEW CAMPAIGN CALLED FARM TOWN  STRONG. TEH GOAL IS TO RAISE AWARENESS OF THE CIRSIS  IMPACTING FARMING COMMUNITIES AND PROVIDE  RESOURCES AND INFORMATION TO HELP COMMUNITIES  OVERCOME THE CRISIS.  YOU CAN LEARN MORE AT FARM TOWN STRONG DOT  ORG. 

WEATHER
THAT'S IT FOR NEWS...METEOROLOGIST MIKE  HOFFMAN JOINS US AGAIN. MIKE, IT'S A TALE OF TWO  COUNTRIES RIGHT NOW-- A WET AND SNOWY START TO  2018 IN THE EAST, AND MORE DYRNESS OUT WEST.  TYNE THAT'S RIGHT. ALTHOUGH AS YOU MIGHT LOOK AT THE JETSTREAM  RIGHT NOW THINGS ARE GOING TO CHANGE A LITTLE BIT. WE'RE GOING TO  SEE A LITTLE MOISTURE COMING IN OUT WEST AND WE'RE NOT GOING TO  SEE THE EXTREME COLD FARTHER EAST ALTHOUGH NEW ENGLAND STILL  PRETTY COLD AND THE WEEKEND AND START THE WEEK AS YOU CAN SEE  THERE BUT WITH A LITTLE BIT OF A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT  LAKES IN THE NORTHEAST NOTHING LIKE WHAT WE WERE SEEN WHERE IT  WAS COMING STRAIGHT OFF THE ARCTIC CIRCLE ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST. AND WHEN YOU HAVE THE FLOW COMING INTO THE WEST  YOU AT LEAST GET SOME STORM SYSTEMS COMING IN THERE. THAT'S ON  WEDNESDAY AS WE HEAD THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY WHILE  WE GO A LITTLE BIT BACK TO THE RIDGE AND THE TROUGH IN THE EAST AND  THERE'S MORE ENERGY KIND OF DIVING IN RIGHT THERE WHICH WILL  PROBABLY TAKE THIS TROUGH EVEN DEEPER THE FOLLOWING WEEK. SO  THERE IS STILL A COLD NO DOUBT ABOUT IT AND I'M GOING BELOW NORMAL  FOR MOST OF THOSE AREAS IN MY 30 DAY OUTLOOK NORTHERN PLAINS.  MOST OF THE EAST ABOVE NORMAL FOR CALLING THE REGION BACK  THROUGH CALIFORNIA 30 THE OUTLOOK FOR PRECIPITATION MISSISSIPPI  AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS GREAT LAKES ABOVE NORMAL. SAME THING  IN THE NORTHWEST BELOW NORMAL NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE  SOUTHWEST TIME.               THANKS, MIKE. 

FARM JOURNAL REPORT
MILLENNIALS ARE GAINING MORE INFLUENCE WITH  RETAILERS AND COMPANIES WHEN IT COMES TO FOOD  PREFERENCES IN THEIR PURCHASES.  AS BETSY JIBBEN REPORTS, NOW BETSY JIBBEN HAS  OUR FARM JOURNAL REPORT.MANY OF THESE  COMPANIES ARE STUDYING UP AND CATERING THEIR  MENUS TO CONSUMER DEMAND.    IT'S A GENERATION PLAGUED WITH STEROTYPES -  MILLENNIALS OFTEN GET A BAD RAP, BUT ARE NOW  HAVING A LOT OF SWAY WHEN IT COMES TO FOOD EXPECTATIONS AND PURCHASES.  <"THEY ARE THE PURCHASE POWER WITH A DIFFERENT TYPE OF  EXPECTATION THAT WE HAVE TO WORK TOGETHER TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO  MEET,"> MILLENNIALS ARE DEFINED AS ANYONE BORN BETWEEN  THE EARLY 1980S TO MID '90S NOW WALMART - THE LARGEST GROCER- IS PREPARING  FOR THOSE MILLENNIAL PURCHASES TO GROW IN ITS  STORES.  <"THE MILLENNIAL WILL BE 30 PERCENT OF RETAIL SALES BY THE YEAR  2020."> WALMART IS FINDING THE AGE GROUP IS PUTTING ITS  DOLLARS TOWARDS BELIEFS AND BRANDS THEY FEEL  MAKE A DIFFERENCE. <"THEY CARE ABOUT WORLD CHALLENGES, WORLD HUNGER, POVERY,  CLIMATE CHANGE AND THEY WANT TO BE PART OF THOSE SOLUTIONS,"> BIG BOX STORES AREN'T THE ONLY ONES STUDYING UP. USDA'S ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE IS TAKING A  HARD LOOK AT MILLENNIAL BUYING AND EATING HABITS  TOO. IT TURNS OUT THAT AGE GROUP PREFERS TO BUY  FRUITS AND VEGETABLES OVER MEAT. IN FACT,  THEY SPEND THE SMALLEST SHARE OF THEIR  FOOD BUDGETS ON ITEMS LIKE GRAINS AND BOTH RED  AND WHITE MEAT.  BUSINESSES ARE PAYING ATTENTION. TYSON FOODS EVEN MAKING INVESTMENTS INTO A  PLANT-BASED PROTEIN WITH A NEW MEATLESS  BURGER.  T-G-I FRIDAYS INTRODUCING THE BEYOND BURGERS TO  ITS RESTURANT CHAIN NATIONAWIDE TO QUOTE -  ANSWER GUESTS DEMAND FOR NUTRITIONAL MENU  ITEMS THAT  FIT THEIR LIFESTYLE NEEDS. "  <"SINCE MAY DISTRIBUTION WITH BEYOND BURGER HAS SEEN TRIPLE DIGIT  GROWTH AND IS NOW AVAILABLE AT OVER 9000 FOOD SERVICE AND RETAIL  OUTLETS NATIONWIDE."> DESPITE THE PUSH TO MEATLESS PRODUCTS, THE  MEAT SECTOR IS GROWING - POTENTIALLY TO RECORD  AMOUNTS.  <"I HAVE A 5 PERCENT INCREASE IN BEEF PRODUCTION. ON TOP OF THAT  YOU HAVE 3 PERCENT INCREASE IN PORK PRODUCTION WHICH WILL  CONTINUE TO BUILD RECORDS FOR THE LAST 3 YEARS AND SET A NEW  RECORD WITH BROILERS."> ECONOMISTS SAY CONSUMERS  ARE EXPECTED TO EAT AND EVEN  SURPASS A RECORD AMOUNT OF RED MEAT AND  POULTRY THIS YEAR DESPITE THE MILLENNIAL TREND.   <"IT TOOK FROM 2007 TO 2014 TO GO FROM THE RECORD 222 POUNDS  PER PERSON TO 202, A 10 PERCENT DROP. AND IN THREE SHORT YEARS,  WE'RE BRINGING THAT UP TO A NEW RECORD LEVEL AGAIN,"> IT'S MAJOR FAST FOOD CHAINS LIKE MCDONALDS  HELPING BEEF UP DEMAND.  <"OUR CUSTOMERS LOOK TO MCDONALDS AS A BEEF COMPANY. THEY  WANT TO COME TO MCDONALDS FOR HAMBURGERS."> THE POPULAR CHAIN FOCUSING ON A FRESH BEEF  CAMPAIGN EVEN TESTING A NEW BURGER THIS MONTH  CALLED AN ARCHBURGER. IT ALL INCLUDES A FARM TO FORK ANGLE.  <"HOW THEIR FOOD IS RAISED AND GROWN ON A FARM. WE'RE ABLE TO  WORK DIFFERENT EFFORTS TO REALLY HELP UNDERSTAND TO TAKE THE GREAT  WORK THROUGH METRICS ULTIMATELY T O TAKE THAT AND BRING IT TO THE  CUSTOMER AT THE END OF THE DAY."> THE COMPANY LABELS SUSTAINABLE BY 3 E'S:  ECONOMICS, ENVIRONMENT AND ETHICS.  AND WORKING TO SERVE THE MESSAGE TO  CONSUMERS.  <"ONE OF THE EXAMPLES TODAY IS THROUGH ANIMAL WELFARE AUDITS  THAT'S REQUIRED AT OUR FACILITIES AND CERTAINLY THAT'S SOMETHING WE  CAN SHARE OR TALK ABOUT WITH OUR CUSTOMERS IF THEY ASK,"> CONSUMERS AND MILLENNIALS HAVE A SAY IN  PURCHASING POWER AND IT'S COOKING UP CHOICES  FOR EACH CONSUMER AND THEIR FIT. THAT 'S HELPING  SATISFY GROWING APPETITE TODAY AND TOMORROW.  REPORTING FOR U.S. FARM REPORT, I'M BETSY JIBBEN.                 THANKS BETSY.  THE STUDY ALSO FOUND MILLENIALS WHILL BUY RED  MEAT AS THEIR INCOME RISES, BUT SOME ECONOMISTS  SAY THIS TREND IS WHY THE U-S NEEDS TO FOCUS ON  BOLSTERING MEAT EXPORTS INSTEAD OF GROWING  DOMESTIC DEMAND.  JOHN PHIPPS JOINS US NEXT

CUSTOMER SUPPORT
WELCOME BACK. FROM OUR MARKET DISUCSSION TO  WEATHER FORECASTS, WE FOCUS A LOT ON  PREDICTIONS AND FORECASTS ON OUR SHOW. BUT  PREDICTIONS CAN BECOME EVEN MORE ACCURATE.  HERE'S JOHN PHIPPS.  LAST WEEK I TALKED ABOUT PREDICTIONS AND FORECASTING AND HOW  THERE IS ON-GOING RESEARCH SHOWING WE CAN GET BETTER AT IT. SO  HERE'S A QUICK AGSPLAINER WITH TIPS TO HELP YOU WITH YOUR OWN  FORECASTS FOR 2018 AND BEYOND. RULE #1 - WRITE YOUR PREDICTIONS DOWN. I KNOW THIS SEEMS LIKE A  NO-BRAINER, BUT IT IS AMAZING HOW OFTEN WE MAKE PLANS BASED ON  FORECASTS WE THINK WE REMEMBER. ALSO YOU WILL DISCOVER YOUR  MEMORY IS NOT ETCHED IN STONE. MAKE THE PREDICTIONS TESTABLE, THAT IS, USE FIRM NUMBERS OR  OUTCOMES, AND MOST IMPORTANT A DEFINITE DATE FOR THE PREDICTION  TO BE FULFILLED. THERE IS A REASON FOR THAT OLD MARKETING RULE -  "PREDICT THE PRICE OR THE DATE, BUT NOT BOTH". ENUMERATE THE  PREDICTION BY GIVING IT A PROBABILITY SUCH AS A 30% OR 8 IN 10  CHANCE. MAKE PREDICTIONS AS NEEDED AND VISIT YOUR LIST REGULARLY, SUCH AS  ONCE A WEEK. YOU SHOULD ALSO REVISE YOUR ODDS WHEN NEW  INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE. PERSONALLY, I LIKE TO USE BLIND UPDATES,  WHERE I DON'T HAVE MY LAST ESTIMATE IN FRONT OF ME WHEN I MAKE  THE UPDATE. KEEP ALL YOUR PREDICTION WORKSHEETS, HOWEVER, AS  THEY WILL YIELD THE MOST IMPORTANT DATA. EVERY NOW AND THEN LOOK  BACK AT YOUR VALUE FOR A GIVEN PREDICTION TO SEE IF THERE IS A CLEAR  TREND. IDEALLY, YOU SHOULD BE MOVING TO EITHER 100% OR 0 AS TIME  TO THE DEADLINE APPROACHES. IF NOT, THAT TELLS YOU SOMETHING  ABOUT BOTH THE NATURE OF THE EVENT AND YOUR INFORMATION  GATHERING. FINALLY, AFTER A FEW MONTHS OF PREDICTING AND KEEPING SCORE, SEE  F YOU CAN SPOT ANY OVERALL BIASES. FOR EXAMPLE, ARE YOU  CONSISTENTLY OPTIMISTIC OR PESSIMISTIC? THIS DOESN'T MEAN YOU  NEED TO CHANGE HOW YOU CALCULATE FUTURE OUTCOMES, BUT KNOWING  THAT YOU TEND ONE WAY CAN HELP MAKE BETTER DECISIONS. ALSO  COMPARE HOW WELL YOU PREDICTED EVENTS AND WHETHER YOU ACTED  ON THOSE PREDICTIONS. EVEN IF YOU GET BETTER AT IMAGINING THE  FUTURE, IF YOU DEFER TO OTHER JUDGMENTS SUCH AS ADVISORS OR  FRIENDS, IT WON'T MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE. NEXT WEEK I'LL WRAP THIS US WITH SOME COMMENTS ABOUT WHAT  RESEARCHERS HAVE LEARNED ABOUT FORECASTING AND WHAT IT COULD  MEAN FOR OUR FARMS AND HOMES. THANKS, JOHN. AND IF YOU HAVE QUESTIOSN OR  COMMENTS, JUST EMAIL JOHN AT MAILBAG AT U-S FARM  REPORT DOT COM

TEASE
WHEN WE COME BACK, HE WAS AN OUTLAW WITH AN  UNCERTAIN OUTCOME. IT'S THE STORY OF BILLY THE  KID NEXT. 

AMERICAN COUNTRYSIDE
HE WAS AN OUTLAW WHO HAD MANY DIFFERENT  NAMES. MOSTLY COMMONLY KNOWN AS BILLY THE KID,  HOW OR WHERE BILLY ACTUALLY DIED STILL REMAINS A  MYSTERY TODAY. HERE'S ANDREW MCCREA.   WE KNOW HIM AS BILLY THE KID - A NOTORIOUS OUTLAW OF THE WILD  WEST.  HE IS A MAN WHO'S ROUGH AND TUMBLE BEGINNINGS WERE  PERHAPS AN OMEN OF WHAT HIS LIFE WOULD BECOME. HIS MOTHER DIED WHEN HE WAS THREE YEARS OLD. AND HIS MOTHER'S  MATERNAL HALF SISTER, CAME FROM THE EAST TO GET HIM AND SHE TOOK  HIM WITH HE TO RAISE HIM AS HER SON THAT AUNT DIED WHEN BILLY WAS ONLY 14 YEAR'S OLD.  THEY WERE  LIVING IN NEW MEXICO AT THE TIME AND THE KID EVENTUALLY BEGAN  WORKING FOR RANCHER JOHN TUNSTALL.  WHEN TUNSTALL WAS KILLED BY  RIVAL RANCHERS, A FEUD, KNOWN AS THE LINCOLN COUNTY WAR,  ERUPTED.  AS A RESULT, BILLY WAS WANTED FOR MURDER.  HE WAS  EVENTUALLY APPREHENDED BY SHERIFF PAT GARRET, FOUND GUILTY AND  SENTENCED TO HANG ON MAY 13, 1881.   HE DECIDED IT WAS TIME TO LEAVE BEFORE THEY HUNG HIM SO HE  BROKE LOOSE BUT HE SHOT AND KILLED TWO DEPUTIES THREE MONTHS LATER, SHERIFF GARRET, ON THE TRAIL OF BILLY THE KID,  THOUGHT HE'D LOCATED HIM IN FORT SUMNER, NEW MEXICO.  ABOUT  MIDNIGHT ON JULY 14TH, 1881 GARRET SHOT BILLY IN THE DARK.  THAT'S  WHERE THE STORY BEGINS TO DIFFER IF YOU LIVE HERE IN HICO, TEXAS. WELL THE DEPUTY MARSHALL TURNS THE BODY OVER AND LOOKS UP AT  GARRET AND SAYS YOU'VE KILLED THE WRONG MAN.  BUT PART GARRET  HAD TO KILL BILLY THE KID THAT NIGHT.  THAT WAS THE THIRD MAN HE'D  SHOT IN THE BACK.  GARRETT BURIED THE BODY WITHOUT LETTING ANYONE ELSE SEE IT.  SOME  BELIEVE IT WAS ACTUALLY BILLY BARLOW, THE MAN WHO WAS WITH BILLY  THE KID.  THE GRAVE IN NEW MEXICO WASHED AWAY IN A FLOOD IN  THE EARLY 1900S AND THE KID HAS NO KNOWN RELATIVES TO DO A DNA  MATCH.  SOME BELIEVE BILLY THE KID ESCAPED, LIVED IN MEXICO FOR  THREE YEARS, THEN RETURNED TO THE U.S. WHERE HE WORKED UNDER  SEVERAL ASSUMED NAMES.  BUT EVENTUALLY HE SETTLED HERE. KNOWN AS BRUSHY FOR CHASING STOLEN HORSES THROUGH WILD THICKETS  LATER IN LIFE.  THE TOWN CREATED THIS MUSEUM DEVOTED TO BRUSHY  BILL, AKA, BILLY THE KIDD.  SUE SAYS FOLKS HERE IN HICO ALWAYS HAD  A STRANGE FEELING ABOUT BRUSHY.   BRUSHY WAS KNOWN FOR BEING A WEIRD COWBOY.  PEOPLE ALWAYS  THOUGHT HE WAS A STRANGE OLD MAN.  WHEN HE AND HIS WIFE WOULD  COME INTO TOWN, HE WOULD NOT ALLOW HER TO WALK BESIDE HIM.  HE  WAS ALWAYS AFRAID SOMEONE MIGHT RECOGNIZE HIM AND SHE'D GET  CAUGHT IN THE CROSSFIRE  BUT BRUSHY NEVER SHARED HIS STORY.  IN THE LATE 1940S, LAWYER  WILLIAM MORRISON WAS ASSISTING FORMER OUTLAW, JESSE EVANS WITH  A LAND CLAIM.  EVANS TOLD MORRISON HE KNEW BILLY THE KID WAS STILL  ALIVE AND LIVING IN HICO, TEXAS.  BRUSHY BILL CONFESSED TO THE  LAWYER HE WAS INDEED BILLY THE KID.  HE SHOWED SCARS CONSISTENT  WITH THOSE "THE KID" WAS KNOWN TO HAVE AND FACIAL RECOGNITION  SOFTWARE SHOWED MANY SIMILARITIES.  SUE ADMITS SHE WAS  SKEPTICAL THAT BILLY THE KID SURVIVED ALL THOSE YEARS. IT REALLY WASN'T UNTIL 2014 WHEN I STARTED READING ALL THE FACT THAT  I TOTALLY BELIEVED HE WAS  BILLY THE KID.    THE EVIDENCE PERSUADED SUE THAT BRUSHY WAS THE INFAMOUS  OUTLAW.  THE FOLKS IN THIS AREA CERTAINLY BELIEVE.  BRUSHY'S GRAVE  IN NEARBY HAMILTON HAS ALL OF BILL'S NAMES…INCLUDING THE MOST  FAMOUS.  OF COURSE, THERE'S STILL A MARKER IN FORT SUMNER, NEW  MEXICO CLAIMING TO BE BILLY'S FINAL RESTING PLACE AS WELL.  BUT FOR  MOST OF THE FOLKS HERE, AND TO MANY ACROSS THE NATION, IT WAS  TEXAS, NOT NEW MEXICO WHERE BILLY THE KID WAS LAID TO REST.   CLOSING STAND-UP SO DID BILLY THE KID DIE IN 1881IN NEW MEXICO  OR DID HE LIVE ANOTHER 7 DECADES UNDER THE NAME BRUSHY BILL?  WELL THAT'S FOR YOU TO DECIDE AND  A TRIP HERE TO THE BILLY THE KID  MUSEUM WILL HELP YOU DO JUST THAT. TRAVELING THE COUNTRYSIDE IN  HICO TEXAS I'M ANDREW MCCREA.      YOU CAN HEAR MORE OF ANDREW'S TRAVELS ON  AMERICAN COUNTRYSIDE DOT COM OR ON THE FARM  JOURNAL ON AIR APP. 

TEASE
WHEN WE COME BACK, MACHINERY PETE HAS A  FARMALL FROM TEH HOOSIER STATE.

TRACTOR TALES
TRACTOR TALES BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE MOST  TRUSTED NAME IN FARM EQUIPMENT, MACHINERY  PETE!. WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES FOLKS!  STRAIGHT FROM THE HOOSIER  STATE, WE'VE GOT A 1953 FARMALL SUPER C TO SHARE WITH YOU.  OWNER JIM YOARS IS A FAN OF EVERYTHING RED, AND THIS CLASSIC C  IS NO EXCEPTION.  THIS MODEL WAS IN PRODUCTION FOR ONLY THREE  YEARS AND WOULD HAVE COST AROUND 17 HUNDRED DOLLARS BRAND  NEW.   BEHIND ME IS A SUPER C IT'S AN IMPROVEMENT ON THE MODEL C.    THEY'VE ADDED A WATER PUMP AND A LARGER RADIATOR SO THEY HAD  CHANGED THE GRILL AND ADD TO IT.  THEY RAISED THE SHEET METAL UP  TO MAKE ROOM FOR IT IS ABOUT TWO INCHES. SO HE SAID ABOUT TWO  INCHES HIGHER AND THEY CHANGED THE STIRRING WHEEL THE LARGER  STIRRING WHEEL.  THEY ALSO WERE EQUIPPED IT FOR TWO-POINT  EQUIPMENT WHICH WAS THE LATEST AND GREATEST THING INTERNATIONAL  WAS PUSHING AT THE TIME. THIS HAS GOT A TWO-POINT HITCH ON IT.   AND IT WOULD PULL A FAST HITCH PLOW OR A DISK.  WHICH I'VE GOT  SOME OF THAT EQUIPMENT WILL GO ON TRACTORS AREN'T ALWAYS WHAT THEY ARE ADVERTISED TO BE.  I BOUGHT THIS ONE OVER THE EAST OF  COLUMBUS, OHIO AND A GENTLEMAN TOLD ME WHERE I GIVE ME A LIST  OF EVERYTHING THAT HAD BEEN DONE TO IT. SO FOURTH AND WHEN I GOT HOME I DON'T KNOW WHAT LIST HE GAVE  ME BUT IT WASN'T THAT WAY AND SO I HAD TO REBUILD THE MOTOR AND  IT'S THE FIRST ONE I BOUGHT THAT I HAD TO REBUILD A MOTOR AND NEW  RINGS AND PISTONS EVERYTHING IN BUT IT'S A NICE GOOD RUNNING  TRACTOR NOW.

TEASE
THANKS, GREG. AND IT'S A CHURCH 150 YEARS OLD.  CONGRATULATIONS TO LAND LUTHERAN CHURCH IN  MINNESOTA. CHECK OUT THAT STEEPLE TOWERING  OVER THE CORN FIELDS PERCHED AROUND IT.  OUR THANKS TO HEIDE MAGNUSON.  STAY WITH US- PHOTOS FROM THE FARM ARE NEXT.  

FROM THE FARM
WELCOME BACK. WELL DID YOU HAVE A NICE CHRISTMAS. THAT IS A GOOD NEW YEAR. YES WE DID. OFF TO WORK A LITTLE BIT BUT THAT'S OK WE HAD LOTS OF FAMILY TIME. OH THAT'S NICE. YES. WELL LOYAL VIEWER BOB HOLLINGS THAT HE HAD THE PLEASURE OF HAVING TWO OF HIS THREE GRANDCHILDREN HELP WITH HARVEST THIS YEAR AND OBVIOUSLY THIS WAS LASCH EARLIER LAST YEAR. ADDISON AND ADAM ARE IN THE COMBINE WITH HIM THERE. HE SAID IT WAS SO FUN TO SEE THEIR EXCITEMENT AS THEY SAW HOW THE WHOLE PROCESS WORKS. I GUESS COOL AND CONGRATULATIONS TO OUR JANUARY FACEBOOK COVER PHOTO WINNER JOAN SCHLEY OF GARDEN HOME FARMS IN MOUNT VERNON WASHINGTON. SHE RAISES SCOTTISH HIGHLAND BEEF AND DAIRY GOATS. WHAT HAVE YOU. WHAT OF YOU AND MIKE BABBAGE AND THE EXCITEMENT OF HIS GRANDKIDS. WELL WE WERE ABLE TO TRAVEL BACK HOME TO MISSOURI FOR THE HOLIDAYS AND SO THE GIRLS AND I TAGGED ALONG WITH MY UNCLE TO FEED THE COWS ONE DAY. HERE'S COUNSELLOR'S CATTLE CALL. THE GAS CHAMBER WITH THEIR OWN STYLE. I TOLD HER YOU KNOW WHATEVER YOU DO JUST ONLY SHE SHE DID. SHE DID ALL THIS WEATHER ON THE EAST COAST. I'VE HEARD THE TERM BOMB. IS THAT WHAT THE TERM THAT ALL IT MEANS IS A STORM EXPLODES IN STRENGTH. SOMEBODY CAME UP WITH THAT TERM AT SOME POINT LONG TIME AGO IT'S BEEN USED IN METEOROLOGICAL CIRCLES BUT NOW IT'S SUDDENLY IN THE MEDIA AND EVERYBODY HEARS IT. SO NOW WE KNOW IT'S NOTHING NEW. IT JUST MEANS THAT IT RAPIDLY DEVELOPED AS THEY MANY TIMES DO ALONG THE EAST COAST MADE HEADLINES THIS WEEK. YEAH. ALL RIGHT IF YOU HAVE A PICTURE A VIDEO YOU WOULD LIKE TO SEND IN. YOU CAN DO THAT TO THE ADDRESS ON THE SCREEN.


CLOSE
AND FROM ALL OF US US FARM REPORT. I'M MIKE HOFFMAN AND I'M TIME MORGAN. THANK YOU FOR WATCHING. BE SURE TO JOIN US AGAIN RIGHT HERE NEXT WEEK AS WE WORK TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND EVERYONE. 

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Comments

 
Spell Check

David Snell
Tucson, AZ
1/6/2018 09:55 AM
 

  Brushy Bill is a hoax. His own sister said that, per the family Bible, he was two years old when Billy died. No one who knows a n y t h i n g about the Kid believes this flapdoodle.

 
 
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