USFR Weekly Recap - July 14-15, 2018

July 14, 2018 03:30 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
JULY 14-15, 2018

HEADLINES

WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M TYNE MORGAN, AND HERE'S WHAT'S IN STORE OVER THE NEXT 60  MINUTES. AS TRUMP TURNS UP TARIFF THREATS, USDA EXPECTS  IT TO EAT INTO SOYBEAN EXPORTS THIS YEAR < I THINK THAT A LOT OF TRADERS AND ANALYSTS HAVE ISSUES ALREADY  WITH THE LEGITIMACY OF THE NUMBERS> WE'LL REVEAL THE LASTEST WASE NUMBRS, THAT SHOWED PROVIED BULLISH FOR CORN AND WHEAT.  THE PUSH FOR IMMIGRATION REFORM ISN'T OVER..  <"THE PRODUCE INDUSTRY REALLY WANTS A LEGAL WORKFORCE> BUT WILL IT HAPPEN IN 2018? THAT'S OUR FARM  JORUNAL REPORT.  AND IN JOHN'S WORLD 

NEWS
NOW FOR THE NEWS, ALL EYES WERE ONE EXPORTS THIS WEEK, AS USDA GAVE ITS FIRST LOOK AT HOW  RECENT TARIFFS ARE EATING INTO EXPORTS. AND IT'S  NOT JUST SOYBEANS IN THE LINE OF FIRE, BUT ALSODAIRY FORECAST TO SEE EXPORTS WANE.  U-S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE'S JULY WORLD  AGRULCTURAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND ESTIMATES  SHOWED CHINA'S IMPORTS OF SOYBEANS ARE ON PACE  TO DECLINE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 15 YEARS.  USDA PROJECTS CHINA WILL BRING IN 95 MILLION  METRIC TONS OF SOYBEANS THIS SEASON,A DELCINE OF 8 MILLION METRIC TONS.  USDA SAYS THE CHINESE TARIFFS ARE CASUING HIGHER SOYBEAN PRICES IN CHINA, MAKING IT MORE  COSTLY FOR BUYERS.  OVERALL, USDA CALLING FOR A 6 POINT 8 MILLIO  METRIC TON DECLIEN IN U-S EXPORTS, THAT'S DUE TO  THE EXPECTATION THAT BRAZIL WILL ACTUALLY BUY 2  POITN 1 MILLION METRIC TONS OF BEANS. HERE'S JOE VACLAVIK OF STANDARD GRAIN.   <I THINK THE BIGGEST TOPIC OF INTEREST HERE IS THE NEW CROP  SOYBEAN DEMAND PROJECTION. BECAUSE WE'VE HAD AN ONGOING TARDE DISPUTE WITH CHINA, THE USDA SHAVED 11 PERCENT OFF OF ITS  PROJECTION FOR NEW CROP SOYBEAN EXPORTS, AND AT THIS POINT, IT'S  MAINLY DUE TO THE IDEA CHINA WON'T BUY AS MANY NEW CROP BEANS FROM THE U-S BECAUSE OF TARIFFS. NOW THIS IS A TOPIC THAT WILL  CONTINUE TO BE DEBATED. I THINK THAT A LOT OF TRADERS AND ANALYSTS  HAVE ISSUES ALREADY WITH THE LEGITIMACY OF THE NUMBERS, IT'S VERY DIFFICULT TO SAY WHAT EXACTLY IS GOING TO HAPPEN WITH THIS TRADE  WAR, IT'S VERY DIFFICULT TO IMAGINE WHERE CHINA IS GONG TO GET  BEANS COME THIS FALL WHEN BRAZIL RUNS OUT OF EXPORTABLE SUPPLIES> VACLAVIK SAYS THAT REDUCTION IN EXPORTS IS  DESPITE THE FACT EXPORT SALES AND  COMMITTEMENTS HAVE REMAINED STRONG, ACTUALLY  RUNNING AHEAD OF THE SAME TIME LAST YEAR.  ALSO IN WASDE, USDA CALLING FOR LARGER CORN  SUPPLIES BASED ON MORE ACRES, BUT THE AGENCY  THINKS WITH HIGHER EXPORTS, IT WILL HELP EAT AWAY  AT ENDING STOCKS.  THE AGENCY SAYS CORN EXPORTS HIT A RECORD-HIGH  IN MAY AND CURRENT OUTSTANDING EXPORTS SALES  ARE ALSO AT RECORD LEVELS. AND FOR WHEAT, THE AGENCY RAISING PRODUCTION  BY 54 MILLION BUSHELS. THAT'S DO TO A BOUTNIFUL  SPRING WHETA CROP. AND WHILE THE AGENCY RAISED ENDING STOCKS, IT'S STILL 11 PERCENT BELOW LAST YEAR. FURTHER U-S TARIFFS ON CHINESE GOODS MAY BE PUT  INTO PLACE BY THE END OF SUMMER. THE WHITE HOUSE ANNOUNCED TUESDAY IT WILL  ASSESS TEN-PERCENT TARIFFS ON ANOTHER 200- BILLION DOLLARS IN CHINESE GOODS SHIPPED INTO  THIS COUNTRY. . THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT VOWS TO TAKE "FIRM AND FORCEFUL MEASURES" AGAINST U.S. THREATS TO  EXPAND TARIFF HIKES. .A TWO-MONTH PUBLIC COMMENT PERIOD NOW OPENS.  THE TARIFFS COULD BE IMPLEMENTED IN LATE AUGUST. THE SENATE WANTS A SAY ON TARIFFS.  IN A NON-BINDING VOTE OF 88 TO 11, THE SENATE  VOTED THIS WEEK TO GIVE CONGRESS A SAY BEFORE  THE PRESIDENT CAN LEVY TARIFFS FOR NATIONAL  SECURITY PURPOSES.  IT WOULD BE ATTACHED TO THE UPCOMING SPENDING  BILL.  MEANWHILE, FARMERS ADN RANCHERS ARE STILL  WAITING ON CONCRETE DETAILS REGARDING WHAT A  BACKSTOP PLAN FOR THE PRICE FALLOUT MAY ACTUALLY LOOK LIKE. SENATOR PAT ROBERTS SAYS NO COMPREHENSIVE  PLAN HAS CROSSED HIS DESK, BUT SAID THERE'S BEEN  TALK OF MAKING ANYWHERE 15 TO 30 BILLION DOLLARS  FOR AID.  THE HIGH TARIFF ATMOSPHERE SEEMS TO BE THE NEW  NORMAL FOR NOW.  AND IT'S HAVING AN IMPACT ON FARMERS FOR MORE  THAN JUST COMMODITY PRICES. IT'S ALSO CAUSING  STEEPER PRICETAGS ON EVERYTHING FROM GRAIN  BINS TO TRACTORS.  STEEL TARIFFS ON U-S IMPORTS ARE CAUSING THE  COST OF RAW MATERIALS TO INCREASE. THAT'S LEADING TO MORE EXPENSIVE FARM EQUIPMENT.  FARM JOURNAL WASHINGTON CORESPONDANT JIM  WIESEMEYER SAYS SOME EQUPMENT MANUFACTURERS  ARE RELUCTANT TO PRICE 2019 MACHINES.   <I DON'T KNWO HOW MANY FARMERS I'VE TALKED TO THE LAST FEW  WEEKS WHO SAID THEY CAN'T EVEN GET A BID ON A 2019 PIECE OF  EQUIPMENT BECAUSE THE MANUFACTURERS DON'T KNOW HOW MUCH THEY'RE GOING TO HAVE TO RAISE THEIR PRICES BECSUE OF THE METAL  TARIFFS. THAT SHOWS YOU THE IMPACT AND I THINK IT'S GOING TO GROW> WHEN ASKED IF THE PRICE OF EQUIPMENT WILL SEE A  SPIKE IN 2019, AGCO TELLING U-S FARM REPORT THAT  IT'S PREMATURE TO ESTIMATE THE IMPACTS OF HTE  TARIFFS, BUT THE COMPANY MAY HAVE TO IMPLEMENT APROVED SOURCING ALTERNATIVES.  AND WHILE JOHN DEERE CORPORATE DECLINED TO  COMMENT,  LOCAL JOHN DEERE DEALERS WHO SAY  2019 SPRAYER PRICES ARE UP 5 TO 6 PERCENT, NEARLY  DOUBLE THE AVERAGE ANNUAL PERCENTATGE PRICE  INCREASE. AND WHILE ALL 2019 PRICES AREN'T ROLLED  OUT AT THIS POINT, THE LOCAL DEALERS SAY THEY DO EXPECT TRACTOR PRICES TO SEE A SIGNIFICANT PRICE  INCREASE. THE ASSOCIATION OF EQUIPMENT MANUFCTURERS  RELEASING ITS TRACTOR AND COMBINE REPORT FOR  THE FIRST HALF OF THE YEAR. IT SHOWS COMBINE  SALES ARE UP 20 PERCENT DURING THE FIRST 6  MONTHS AND TOTAL FARM TRACTOR SALES TICKED 6  PERCENT HIGHER.  SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT OF AG FOR  A-E-M CURT BLADES SAYS MOST OF THAT INCREASE IS  DUE TO  FARMERS' NEED TO UPGRADE.  <'I THINK THAT'S WHAT WE'RE SEEING RIGHT NOW IS A NICE REPLACEMENT  MARKET WHERE SOMEONE MAY HAVE DEFERRED A PURCHASE OF A NEW PIECE OF EQUIPMENT BY A YEAR OR TWO YEARS AND NOW FOR ONE  REASON OR ANOTHER IT'S TIME TO REPLACE IT."> BLADES SAYS IF EQUIPMENT BUYS ARE GOING TO SEE  PRESSURE FROM THE RECENT TARIFFS' IMPACT ON  COMMODITY PRICES, IT WILL PROBABLY SHOW UP IN  THE NEXT A-E-M REPORT.  PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP ANNOUNCING THIS WEEK  HIS LATEST SUPREME COURT NOMINATION.  HIS PICK--   BRETT KAVANAUGH, WHO TRUMP CALLS A  JUDGE'S JUDGE AND TURE THOUGH LEADER AMONG HIS  PEERS. THE NOMINATION NEEDS CONGRESSIONA APPROVAL,  BUT ANALYTS SAY IF CONFIRMED, TRUMP'S PICK WOULD  STEER THE SUPREME COURT IN A MORE CONSERVATIVE DIRECTION.  KAVANAUGH HAS BEEN MIXED ON AG-RELATED RULINGS  LIKE THE R-F-S, BUT DID TARGET EPA FOR HOW IT IMPLEMENTED AIR-POLLUTION RULES IS LAB-GROWN MEAT REALLY MEAT?  THAT'S WHAT THE FOOD AND DRUG ADMINSTRAITN  DEBATED THURSDAY. IT WAS AN ALL DAY PUBLIC MEETING TO GET INPUT ON HOW TO REGULATE THE NEW PRODUCT, WHICH TAKES  CELLS FROM ANIMALS, GROWS THEM INTO TISSUE THAT  CAN BE USED TO MAKE BURGERS. BOTH FDA AND USDA REGULATROS BELIEVE THEY HAVE JURISDICTION OVER THE PRODUCTS. THE MEETING IS EXPECTED TO DRAW HUNDREDS OF  PEOPLE-= FROM RANCHERS TO ANIMAL WELFARE  ADVOCATES. 

TEASE
THAT'S IT FOR THE NEWS. ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH HEAT HIT THE COUNTRY..  AND SOME AREAS STILL WAITING ON RAIN. WE'LL HAVE A  CHECK OF WEATHER NEXT.  

WEATHER
WELCOME BACK. IT'S TIME TO CHECK IN WITH ..METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN FOR A LOOK AT  WEATHER. MIKE, IT WAS ANOTHER HOT WEEK, WITH  MANY AREAS MISSING RAIN. DOES THE PATTERN  CHANGE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK?   YES TYNE WE DO SEE A PATTERN CHANGE COMING OUR WAY AS YOU'LL SEE IN OUR 30 DAY OUTLOOK IT DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPERS KIND OF FLIP FLOP THE HEAT GOES WEST. COOLER AIR COMES EAST. IN THE MEANTIME DROUGHT MONITOR HASN'T CHANGED A WHOLE LOT IN THE LAST MONTH. YOU CAN SEE SPLOTCHY IT IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND THAT'S ALL BECAUSE SOME AREAS WILL GET TO HAVE A THUNDERSTORM JUST DOWN THE ROAD YOU WANT. SO LET'S GO BACK A MONTH AND SEE HOW THINGS WORK QUITE AS BAD MAINLY NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. BUT YOU KNOW IT WAS ALREADY GETTING VERY DRY. NORTHERN MISSOURI BACK INTO THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS BESIDES THOSE SPOTS THAT DID GET THUNDERSTORMS AND THAT'S STILL KIND OF THE CASE THE WORST AREAS STILL THE FOUR CORNER REGION WHICH IS TYPICALLY DRY BUT THIS IS EVEN COMPARED TO NORMAL YOU ARE MUCH DRIER THAN NORMAL SO THAT'S AN EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT VERY LITTLE DROUGHT IN OTHER PARTS OF THE COUNTRY BUT THERE ARE PLACES TRYING TO DRY OFF A LITTLE BIT. PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND PARTS OF MICHIGAN A FEW SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAVE REMAINED ON THE DRY SIDE. THERE'S THE JET STREAM AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND SEE THE FIRST TROUGH COMING IN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST SECONDARY TROUGH COMING IN THAT DIGS IN BY NEXT WEEKEND AND THAT'S A PRETTY COOL SHOT OF AIR COMING BY SATURDAY AND SUDDENLY THERE IS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN ALL THE WAY TO THE WEST COAST. AND THIS IS KIND OF THE PATTERN I BELIEVE WILL BE THE REST OF THE SUMMER WITH MORE OF A TROUGH IN THE EAST AND MORE OF A RIDGE IN THE WEST. NOW NOT THAT IT WON'T CHANGE OCCASIONALLY BUT THAT'S THE GENERAL PATTERN THAT I'M KIND OF THINKING OF AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE SUMMER. SO LET'S GO DAY BY DAY THIS WEEK. YOU CAN SEE A COUPLE OF COOL FRANCES WAS A SLOW MOVING ONE THAT'S HAD SOME MOISTURE ALONG ITS STILL SCARE SCATTERED AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE. HIT AND MISS SOUTHEAST SAME THING SOUTHWEST. THIS IS A FAIRLY COOL AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FIRST FRONT THAT GOES ALL THE WAY TO THE EAST COAST. BY THE TIME WE GET TO WEDNESDAY SO IT DOES COOL THINGS DOWN THROUGH THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY STAYS HOT THROUGH THE SOUTH IN THE WEST NEXT COLD FRONTS EVEN COOLER AND THAT WINDS GOING ALL THE WAY DOWN PAST THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS BY THE TIME WE GET TO FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST COAST GOLF COAST. AT THAT POINT JUST HIT AND MISS OUT WEST. AS FAR AS IT'S 30 DAY OUTLOOK FOR TEMPERATURES GOES I AM GOING BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THE GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE GULF COAST REGION SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEST. AS YOU CAN SEE AND IN THE 30 DAY OUTLOOK FOR PRECIPITATION THIS GETS A LITTLE BIT MESSY BUT THE MAIN AREA I BELIEVE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IS GOING TO BE THE FOUR CORNER REGION WHICH IS GOOD NEWS FOR YOU FOLKS.  AND THAT MOISTURE WILL KIND OF SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ALSO ABOVE NORMAL PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. NOW THEY'RE BELOW NORMAL AREAS. I'M STILL KIND OF THINKING THAT OKLAHOMA IN NORTHEAST TEXAS AREAS BELOW. ALSO NEW ENGLAND AND ALSO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BUT PRECIPITATION IS THE TOUGHEST THING TO FORECAST IN THE LONGER TERM TYNE. THANKS, MIKE.  

TEASE
A DEEPER LOOK AT WASDE, PLUS, IS THERE ANY BULLISH NEWS BREWING IN THESE MARKETS? STEVE  GEORGY AND BRYAN DOHERTY DISCUSS AFTER HTE  BREAK.  

ROUNDTABLE 1
WELL WELCOME BACK TO US FARM REPORT. THIS WEEKEND WE TALKED ABOUT THE POINT AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS SHOW TOUCHED ON IT. BUT REALLY I'M GOING TO TAKE A DEEP DIVE INTO THAT WAS THE REPORT AND SOMETHING TO NOTE AT THE TOP OF THE WAS THE REPORT USDA NOTED THAT THE REPORT ONLY CONSIDERS TRADE ACTIONS WHICH ARE IN PLACE OR HAD A FORMAL ANNOUNCEMENT OF EFFECTIVE DATE AS OF THE TIME OF PUBLICATION. YET THEY'VE REALLY TRIMMED SOYBEAN EXPORT. SO DID THEY HOLD TRUE WITH THAT KIND OF NOTE THAT THEY PUT AT THE TOP OF THE REPORT OR DID THEY JUST ASSUME THAT WE'RE GOING TO SEE OUR EXPORTS EVEN FURTHER WHEN IT COMES TO BEANS. WELL I THINK IT LEAVES THE DOOR OPEN FOR THEM. YOU KNOW I DO FEEL THAT THEY PROBABLY TRIMMED A LITTLE TOO MUCH THAT PROBABLY WAS AND IT WAS A PRETTY BEARISH REPORT FOR BEANS AND THAT IS GOING TO BE CONSISTENT RIGHT NOW BECAUSE EVERYBODY'S JUST KIND OF GUESSING WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN. A LOT OF TAROF TALK YET ANOTHER 200 BILLION PUT ON AS FAR AS A LIST THAT'S GOING TO GO INTO EFFECT AND SO WHEN YOU LOOK AT THAT THINGS ARE BECOMING MORE OF AN ISSUE VS. LESS OF AN ISSUE. SO ANY NUMBER RIGHT NOW THAT THEY THROW AT US IS SOMETHING THAT WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO DEAL WITH. AND SO WHETHER OR NOT IT'S TOO MUCH OR TOO LITTLE WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO SEE BUT RIGHT NOW EXPORTS HAVE BEEN PRETTY DECENT. HE BRINGS UP A GOOD POINT. IT SEEMS THAT EXPORTS HAVE BEEN PRETTY DECENT I MEAN WE'VE SEEN AHEAD OF LAST YEAR AT THIS POINT. RIGHT I MEAN EXPORTS HAVE HELD STRONG WHEN IT COMES TO WAY. WELL THE MARKETS MOVE ON PERCEPTION. SO JUST REMEMBER THAT SO THE PERCEPTION IS THESE TARIFFS TARIFFS ARE GOING TO KICK IN. AND SO THE USDA I THINK TOOK A PREEMPTIVE STRIKE. THE ROSE CARRY OUT BECAUSE OF THE EXPORT OF REDUCTIONS. AND CONSEQUENTLY NOW WE'VE GOT MORE THAN ADEQUATE SUPPLY OF BEANS ON HAND. THE TREND IS DOWN THE WEATHER'S GOOD. THE TRADERS ARE SHORT. SO IT'S STILL A DEFENSIVE POSTURE IN THE BEEF MARKET. THEY DECREASED CHINA'S BUYING BUT THEY INCREASED BUYING FROM BRAZIL. DID YOU FIND THAT ODD OR DID YOU EXPECT THAT TO HAPPEN NECESSARILY BRAZIL'S INTERNAL PRICES HAVE REALLY SKYROCKETED THE BRAZILIAN FARMER KNOWS AT THE MOMENT HE BELIEVES HE'S GOT THE UPPER HAND SO HE'S NOT SELLING BEANS AGGRESSIVELY. ARGENTINA A SHORTFALL OF SUPPLY. SO WHERE'S THE NATURAL MARKET FROM THE US OR SURROUNDING COUNTRIES THAT CAN BRING BEANS INTO BRAZIL RIGHT THERE CRUSHERS ARE GETTING BEAT UP HARD BECAUSE OF THE PRICE. YEAH AND STEVE YOU KNOW I'VE HEARD YEAH WE MAY BE SHIPPING LESS TO CHINA BUT OTHER PLACES I MEAN THAT THE SHUFFLING GAME HAS TO HAPPEN IN OTHER PLACES STILL HAVE TO BUY. BUT DOES THE TRADE NOT THINK THAT WAY RIGHT NOW. I MEAN IS TRYING TO JUST SO BIG THAT THAT'S THEIR FOCUS. YOU KNOW IT IS THE FOCUS. AND YOU'RE RIGHT. BUT IT'S IT'S ONCE AGAIN IT'S ONE OF THOSE THINGS WHERE EVERYTHING ALL THE PERCEPTION IS STILL NEGATIVE THE WEATHER.  EVERYTHING ELSE WE COULD TALK ABOUT ALL THE FUNDAMENTALS BUT THERE BECOMES A POINT WHERE IT IS THE PERCEPTION VERSUS REALITY THE REALITY OF ALL OF THIS IS THAT WE PROBABLY WILL STILL EXPORT BEANS. WE'RE STILL GOING TO HAVE PRETTY DECENT DEMAND CHEAPER PRICES CURE CHEAP PRICES RIGHT. AND SO WORK INTO THAT POINT RIGHT NOW WHERE WE'RE AT SUCH A DISCOUNT VERSUS BRAZIL AT SOME POINT WE WILL BE LOOKING AS FAVORABLE. BUT TO WHAT DEGREE WILL CHINA REALLY HAVE THAT KIND OF IMPACT. I'M NOT SURE. BUT RIGHT NOW THE PERCEPTION IS THAT THINGS ARE TOUGH AND WE NOW HAVE TO LIVE WITH THAT UNTIL SOMETHING CHANGES THAT I'M NOT SURE WITHOUT ME AND PRICES JUST KEEP FALLING. AND BRIAN DO YOU THINK THAT ANALYSTS LIKE YOURSELF ARE QUESTIONING THE LEGITIMACY OF THIS LATEST POSITIVE REPORT. SPECIFICALLY WHEN IT COMES TO HOW LARGE OF A CHUNK THEY TOOK OUT OF THE WAY EXPORT WHILE SURE YOU CAN QUESTION IT AND EVERYBODY'S GOING TO PUT THEIR SPIN ON IT AND TAKE A LOOK AT IT. BUT THE REALITY OF IT IS RIGHT NOW IS YOU'VE GOT SORT OF A TRIFECTA OF NEGATIVE NEWS AND THAT IS YOU TIP THE MARKET OVER YOU HAD STRONG FUND BUYING INTO THE LATE MAY WINDOW THEY REVERSE THEIR SHORT THE MARKET. SAME THING IN CORN. YOU'VE GOT THE TECHNICAL WEAKNESS YOU'VE GOT A CROP THAT'S MATURING RIGHT ALONG YOU'VE GOT A SIX TO 10 DAY FORECAST IN A 30 DAY FORECAST THAT LOOK PRETTY FAVORABLE THERE'S JUST NOT A LOT OF FAVORABLE NEWS. SO THE MARKET GAINS MOMENTUM AS IT HEADS DOWN BUYERS ARE GOING TO BUY THEY JUST CHANGE THE WAY THEY BUY. THEY BUY SELECTIVELY AND THEY BUY AS NEEDED. NOT AHEAD. SO DO YOU THINK STEVE ALL THE BAD NEWS IS PRICED IN RIGHT NOW WHEN THE MARKET.  IT'S TOUGH TO SAY BUT I'VE GOT TO TELL YOU WHEN YOU GET TO A POINT WHERE THE FARMERS ARE JUST NOW ANGRY ARE YOU GOING TO SELL ANYTHING OUT THERE. NO. NO ONE'S GOING TO SELL AT THESE PRICE LEVELS. SO WE'RE TRYING TO FIND A SPOT WHERE THAT THAT IS PRICED IN OR THE THE MENTALITY OF ALL OF THIS NEGATIVE NEWS IS NOW DONE. AND SO WE'RE WAITING FOR THAT AND LOOKING FOR SOME KIND OF CHANGE RIGHT NOW. ALL RIGHT WELL HAVE WE MISSED A SUMMER WEATHER RALLY IN CORN. WE'RE GOING TO ASK THEM DURING OUR NEXT ROUNDTABLE COMING UP ON US FARM REPORT. 

JOHN’S WORLD
TIME NOW FOR THIS WEEK'S JOHN'S WORLD. JOHN. WHILE WE HAVE MORE THAN ENOUGH POLITICAL NEWS AT HOME, THE  RECENT ELECTIONS IN MEXICO ARE WORTH NOTING, ESPECIALLY FOR CORN  FARMERS. ANDRES MANUEL LOPEZ OBRADOR, WHO IS ROUTINELY REFERRED TO BY HIS INITIALS - AMLO - WAS ELECTED PRESIDENT IN AN  HISTORIC LANDSLIDE, PUTTING AN END TO 71 YEARS OF CONTINUOUS RULE  BY THE OPPOSITION PRI PARTY. WHILE HE WILL NOT TAKE OFFICE UNTIL  DECEMBER, HIS INFLUENCE ON POLICY IS ALREADY BEING FELT. AMLO IS A BIG QUESTION MARK WHEN IT COMES TO FOREIGN POLICY  AND TRADE WITH THE US. HOWEVER, I THINK THERE ARE FOUR THINGS TO  KEEP IN MIND. FIRST AND FOREMOST, HE IS A POPULIST WHO APPEALS TO THE ENORMOUS NUMBER OF LOW INCOME MEXICANS WHO HAVE  SEEN SLOW WAGE GROWTH AND FEWER BENEFITS THAN THE MIDDLE CLASS  FROM INCREASED TRADE WITH THE US. PRIMARY AMONG THESE ARE MEXICAN FARMERS, WHO COULD BE LIKENED TO US STEELWORKERS.  WHILE AMLO HAS BEEN VAGUE ON HIS GOALS FOR NAFTA  NEGOTIATIONS, IT IS ALMOST UNTHINKABLE THAT HE WILL NOT SEEK SOME PROTECTION FOR DOMESTIC FARMERS WHO WERE DECIMATED BY THE  FLOOD OF CHEAPER US CORN IMPORTS, WHETHER IT MAKES ECONOMIC  SENSE OR NOT.  SECOND, THE PANDEMIC CORRUPTION OF THE OLD RULING  PARTY WILL CERTAINLY MEAN ENORMOUS TURNOVER IN GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS, SO THE ADMINISTRATION WILL BE LARGELY POPULATED BY  POLITICAL NOVICES WITH LITTLE EXPERIENCE OR BASIC KNOWLEDGE OF HOW  GOVERNMENT WORKS. ALL POLITICAL PROCESSES WILL TAKE LONGER. THIRD,  THE PRECARIOUS CONDITION OF THE MEXICAN ECONOMY WILL ADD  PRESSURE FOR STRONG MEASURES, IF ONLY TO BE SEEN TO BE DOING SOMETHING. FOURTH, AMLO IS NOT PARTICULARLY CONSISTENT IN HIS  POLICY POSITIONS, AND WHILE CURRENTLY SOUNDING CONCILIATORY IN  DEALING WITH THE US, IT IS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT MORE  THAN 80 PERCENT OF MEXICANS HAVE AN UNFAVORABLE VIEW OF PRESIDENT TRUMP. WITH THESE OBSERVATIONS IN MIND, HERE IS MY  GENERAL PREDICTION FOR OUR CROSS BORDER RELATIONSHIP WITH MEXICO:  IT WILL NOT IMPROVE, AND WILL LIKELY WORSEN. MANY MANUFACTURING  CHAINS WILL BE DISRUPTED, AND IT IS UNLIKELY THAT US CORN EXPORTS TO  MEXICO WILL REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS, LET ALONE GROW. KEEP YOUR EYE ON WHITE CORN PREMIUMS. THE TRADE WAR WILL ALSO HURT THEIR  ECONOMY DEEPLY, AND MAKE THE PESO EVEN CHEAPER, WHICH WILL  ADD TO OUR EXPORT PROBLEM. THE ADMINISTRATION CHANGE MAY NOT TRIGGER DRAMATIC AND IMMEDIATE DISRUPTIONS, BUT GIVEN THE  PERSONALITIES INVOLVED, IT WOULD BE OUT OF CHARACTER FOR BOTH  PRESIDENTS TO NEGOTIATE ANY WIN-WIN SOLUTIONS OF OUR DISPUTES WITH MEXICO. THANKS, JOHN. 

TEASE
AFTER THE BREAK, A UNIQUE MINNEAPOLIS MOLINE IN ILLINOIS.  

TRACTOR TALES
WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES FOLKS. THIS WEEK WE'VE GOT A VERY UNIQUE TRAKTOR FOR YOU IN ILLINOIS. A MINNEAPOLIS MOLINE U3 002 BUILT IN 1965 THIS MOLINE WAS A WORKHORSE ON THE FARM. MEREDITH MILLER REMEMBERS RUNNING THIS TRACTOR IN HIS YOUTH AND DECIDED TO BUY IT BACK AND RESTORE IT. I GREW UP WITH THIS TRACTOR IT WAS BOUGHT FROM A QUICK IMPLEMENT COMPANY IN ODEN ILLINOIS. ACCORDING TO SERIAL NUMBER IT IS NUMBER 91 OFF THE ASSEMBLY LINE THAT YEAR THERE WAS 300 AND SOME MADE LP GAS BETWEEN 64 65. IT WAS JUST OUR GO AROUND TRACTOR. GOOD ABOUT EVERYBODY LOVED AROUND IT AND IT SOLD AT A FARM SALE AND IN 1990 IT WAS IN VERY GOOD CONDITION REALLY JUST PAINT WAS REALLY FADED ON IT BAD. AND THAT'S ALL I'VE DONE TO IT A COUPLE OF GASKETS JUST VALVES MAKE IT RUN BETTER SMOOTHER AND THAT'S BEEN ABOUT IT. IT'S GOT ITS ORIGINAL HYDRAULIC LEAKS. THERE'S A FEW NOT BAD TIRES OR NEW CAUSE THE OTHERS WERE DRY ROTTED BAD IT RUN THE FEED GRINDER SICKLE BAR MOWER FOR MOWING ROADSIDES AND PASTURES. WE HAD 4-ROW CULTIVATOR FOR IT TO HAVE IT BLOWN WIND THROUGH MY HAIR. IT IS THE REAL FUN TRACTOR TO PLAY WITH AND HAVE PARADES THE BROWN SHOULD BE DYNA BROWN AND I PAINTED IT A METALLIC VINTAGE COPPER JUST TO KIND OF MAKE A LITTLE SHINIER. IT'S CLOSE TO THE DINER BROWN BUT IT'S NOT JUST SHINY AND THE YELLOW IS SAFETY YELLOW. THAT'S WHAT THE ORIGINAL COLOR SUPPOSED TO BE.I GET A LOT OF COMPLIMENTS OF PARADES LITTLE KIDS THEY'LL COME UP BESIDE YOU AND SAY HEY MISTER I LOVE THE YELLOW TRACTOR THAT SURE IS PURDEY THAT MAKES YOUR DAY. I'M GOING TO KEEP PARADING IT. I DON'T THINK I'LL EVER GET RID OF IT. I MIGHT BE BURIED ON IT.

TEASE
THANKS SO MUCH.  WE NEED TO TAKE A QUICK BREAK, AND THEN IT'S AN IN- DEPTH LOOK AT IMMIGRATION AND THE LABOR DEBATE  IN FARM FIELDS. OUR FARM JOURNAL REPORT IS NEXT.  

FARM JOURNAL REPORT
TWO IMMIGRATION BILLS HAVE BEEN SHOT DOWN IN JUNE WHICH WOULD HAVE PROVIDED PROVISIONS FOR  MIGRANT AG WORKERS IMPORTANT FOR AG LABOR. BETSY JIBBEN REPORTS ON WHETHER ANY AG LABOR PROVISIONS COULD COME UP AGAIN THIS CALENDAR  YEAR IN WASHINGTON. COULD ANY AG LABOR PROVISIONS COME UP AGAIN  THIS CALENDAR YEAR IN WASHINGTON.  I'M THINKING OF USING CHALMERS CARR PEACH ASSEMBLY LINE AN ASSEMBLY LINE OF PRODUCTS DOESN'T GET TO THE  CONSUMERS WITHOUT A WORKFORCE AT THE FARM.  FINDING ENOUGH HANDS TO DO THE WORK IS AN ISSUE  THE AG INDUSTRY IS STILL TRYING TO SOLVE.            <"...AND WE MUST GET THEM OUT OF THE FIELDS AND THE GROVES AND  ORCHARDS WHERE THEY GROW. THAT'S A SIMPLE CONCEPT IS IT, NOT?"> THE AG INDUSTRY WILL TELL YOU IT'S MORE  COMPLICATED.  <"THE PRODUCE INDUSTRY REALLY WANTS A LEGAL WORKFORCE. THEY DO  STRUGGLE TO FIND AMERICAN BORN WORKERS TO DO THE WORK WHICH NEEDS TO BE DONE."> <"THIS IS A 5 MINUTE VOTE"> THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES VOTING DOWN TWO DIFFERENT BILLS DURING JUNE. ONE FROM REP. BOB GOODLATTE FOCUSING ON AG  WORKERS AND AIMING TO FIX THE H2A PROGRAM..  AND ANOTHER PIECE OF LEGISLATION CONSIDERED A  'COMPROMISE' BILL WHICH LATER NEARLY INCLUDEED  SOM EOF THOSE GOODLATTEE PROVISIONS.  THE AG GUESTWORKER ACT SPLIT BETWEEN THE PRODUCE SECTOR. <"WE HAVE BEEN ON BOARD FOR A LONG TIME,"> ["IT JUST WASN'T A GOOD BILL AT OUR PERSPECTIVE...">  WITH THE DAIRY INDUSTRY WANTING MORE..               <"THE GOODLATTEE BILL WAS A STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. IT WASN'T THE TOTAL FIX WE NEED. WE NEED COMPREHENSIVE IMMIGRATION  REFORM."> <BACK TO FLOOR> BEFORE BOTH WERE DEFEATED ON THE FLOOR. <"THE BILL IS NOT PASSED,"> GOODLATTE'S STAFF TELLING AGDAY THEY'RE WAITING  ON WHAT'S NEXT.     <"THEY ARE CONCERNED SOME OF THE GOP BILLS DON'T ACCOUNT FOR THE EXISTING WORKERS THAT ARE TOO TOUCGH ON T HOSE WORKERS,  SENDING THEM BACK TO MEXICO FOR A TOUCH-BACK PROVISION. THAT'S  THEIR MAIN CONCERN THAT OUR EXISTING WORKFORCE COULD BE IN JEOPARDY."><"WE HAVE FAILED TO GET ANY ACTION IN THE HOUSE OF  REPRESENTATIVES OVER THE LAST 20 YEARS. 31 WE HAVE PASSED BILLS  IN THE SENATE WHICH GO NOWHERE YET OUR STRATEGY IN THE HOUSE  HAS NOT BEEN WORKING."> <CON'T> <"YOU GOTTA UNDERSTAND THE TWO BODIES ARE DIFFERENT AND WE  PREACH THIS."> HOUSE REPUBLICAN LEADERS SAY THIS LEGISLATION  MAY GET A SECOND OR THIRD CHANCE LATER THIS MONTH... BUT NOT ALL THINK IT MAY HAPPEN NOW AS PLANNED.   <" WHAT IS FRUSTRATING TO ME IS ALL OF THOSE THINGS SHOULD HAVE  PASSED IN A BI-PARTISAN MAJORITY NOW. WE WOULDN'T HAVE TO WAIT  UNTIL JULY. NOW, I'M NOT TOO SURE ANYONE HAS THE POLITICAL DESIRE TO  GO OUT AND DO IT IN JULY."> YES, THERE WILL BE A BILL. WILL IT BE PASSED? NO. NOTHING I'VE  SEEN CAN CONVINCE ME THAT ANY IMMIGRATION REFORM BILL WILL PASS  THE HOUSE, LET ALONE THE SENATE."> WIESEMEYER BELIEVES THE BEST CHANCES ARE IN  2019. <"YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE INCREASED ODDS THAT WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TRUE IMMIGRATION REFORM IN 2019. NOT EVEN AFTER THE ELECTIONS. IT'S  JUST TOO SENSITIVE OF AN ISSUE THAT'S TIED INTO BOTH POLITICAL PARTIES  INTO ELECTION YEAR HYPERBOLE,"> WITH THE DAIRY INDUSTRY - WHICH NEEDS YEAR  ROUND WORKFORCE- WANTING MORE CHANGE.   <"WE HAVE A LOT OF GREAT WORKERS WHICH WOULD LIKE TO STAY HERE,  WE JUST NEED A PATHWAY THEY NEED SOME SECURITY TO KNOW THEY  CAN LIVE AND RAISE A FAMILY HERE. 05 (TAKE OUT)15 THERE SEEMS TO  BE JUST A GRIDLOCK ON IMMIGRATION AND I THINK BOTH PARTIES NEED TO FIGURE THIS OUT"> WORK SOME WANT FIXED IN WASHINGTON  <"I DON'T THINK YOU HAVE TO HIRE A LAWYER OR ACCOUNTANT TO HIRE A  FARM WORKER. I'VE DIRECTED OUR TEAM TO WORK IWTH THE DEPARTMENT  OF LABOR, HOMELAND SECURITY AND STREAMLINE THE PROCESS WHERE  WE CAN. WE ARE MAKING PROGRESS BUT YOU CAN ONLY GO SO FAR ADMINISTRATIVELY. "> REMAINS A DEBATE AS THE INDUSTRY AND  WASHINGTON TRY TO AGREE ON WHAT'S BEST. THANKS BETSY. ACCORDING TO BLOOMBERG -  THE NUMBERE OF MIGRANT WORKERS IN THE U.S. ON TEMPORARY AG VISAS IS UP 159 PERCENT SINCE 2011.  CARR SAYS HE'S INCREASED VISAS - HIS BUSINESS IS AT  AN ALL-TIME RECORD OF 840 VISAS GRANTED TO HIS  WORKERS THIS YEAR. 

DAIRY GUESTWORKER PROGRAM POSSIBILITY
MEANWHILE, LEADERSHIP OF THE HOUSE HAS PROMISED IT WILL VOTE ON A DAIRY GUEST WORKER  PROGRAM YET THIS MONTH.  THE AG ACT, WHICH INCLUDES A H-2-C, GUEST WORKER  PROGRAM, WOULD GIVE LEGAL DOCUMENTATION  STATUS TO BOTH EXISTING WORKERS AND ESTABLISH  QUOATS FOR NEW WORKERS.  IT WOULD ALSO ALLOW FOREIGHN-BORN WORKERS TO  REMAIN IN THE U-S UP TO 36 MONTHS ON A RENEWABLE  VISA. HOWEVER, THOSE INDIVIDUALS WOULD BE REQUIRED TO RETURN TO THEIR HOME COUNTRIES TO  MEET WHAT'S CALLED TOUCH BACK REQUIREMENTS  DURING THAT TIME.  GROUPS LIKE THE AMERICAN DAIRY COALITION ARE  URGING DAIRY FARMERS TO CONTACT THEIR LOCAL  HOUSE REPRESENTATIVES, SAYING THIS IS AN  OPPORTUNITY THE U-S DAIRY INDUSTRY CAN'T ALLOW  SLIP AWAY.  AS CLASS 3 MILK FUTURES PLUMMETED 2 DOLLARS  SINCE LATE MAY, AND TEH INDUSTRY CONTINUES TO  GRAPPLE WITH AN OVERSUPPLY OF MILK, A MAJOR MILK  BUYER IS CLOSING ANOTHER PLANT.  DEAN FOODS SAYS ITS CLOSING A PLANT IN HUNTLEY. 131 PEOPLE WILL ALSO LOSE THEIR JOBS.  ACCORDING TO OUR REPORTING PARTNERS  FARM JOURNAL'S MILK, DEAN FOODS CONTINUES TO BLAME  WALMART FOR ITS FINANCIAL WOES, HOWEVE,R JUST  LAST WEEK THE COMPANY DECIDED TO ACQUIRE  MAJORITY OWNERSHIP IN A PLANT-BASED MILK BRAND  CALLED GOOD KARMA. WASDE REPORT ALSO REVEALING USDA EXPECTS CHINESE TARIFFS TO REDUCE MILK EXPORTS. THE AGENCY REDUCED 2018 AND 2019 EXPORTS OF  SKIM-SOLIDS BASIS, PRIMARILY ON LOWER THAN  EXPECTED EXPORTS OF SKIM MILK POWDER.  AND U-S MEAT EXPORT FEDERATION SHOWS MAY PORK  EXPORTS FADED COMPARED TO YEAR-AGO LEVELS,  DOWN 2 PERCENT FROM 2017. THAT'S AFTER A RECORD  PERFORMANCE IN APRIL.  EXPORT VALUE DROPPED 3 POITN 5 PERCENT. IMPRESSIVE SHIPMENTS TO KOREA HELPED SUPPORT A  BIGGER DROP. EXPORTS WERE UP 46 PERCENT FROM A  YEAR AGO TO KOREA, AND 64 PERCENT IN VALUE.  BEEF EXPORT VALUES SHATTERING THE RECORD, UP 24  PERCENT FROM A YEAR AGO.  THE BIGGEST BUYERS OF U-S BEEF ARE JAPAN AND  SOUTH KOREA, WITH JAPAN SHIPMENTS JUMPING 19  PERCENT.  UP NEXT, ROUND 2 OF OUR MARKETING DISCUSSION. STAY WITH US.

ROUNDTABLE 2
WELCOME BACK TO U.S. FARM REPORT. CONTINUING OUR MARKETING DISCUSSION OUR FIRST ROUNDTABLE WAS FOCUSED ON BEING FROM BEFORE WE MOVE TO CORN. WE WANT TO HIT ON THAT AGAIN JUST BECAUSE PRICES ARE SO CHEAP RIGHT NOW WHEN IT COMES TO SOYBEANS UNFORTUNATELY FOR OUR FOR OUR FARMER VIEWERS. BUT HOW LONG COULD CHINA HOLD OUT. WITH PRICES SO MUCH CHEAPER THAN THAN THEY CAN GET IN PERSONNEL CHEAP IS RELATIVE BUT THEY'RE CHEAP TO WHERE THEY WERE A MONTH AND A HALF AGO SO WE SAW 10 16 NOVEMBER BEANS AND NOW WE'RE UNDER 850 AND HEADING LOWER. SO IT'S CHEAP RELATIVE TO THAT BUT WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE BIG PICTURE YES EVEN WITH THE TARIFF IT'S TOUGH TO ARGUE THAT THE MATH DOESN'T WORK FOR THE IMPORTER TO BUY US BEANS. SO ONE POTENTIAL BULLISH SCENARIO THAT COULD COME OUT OF THIS IS IF THERE IS SOME TYPE OF AN AGREEMENT REACHED OR CHINA JUST DECIDES TO KIND OF HANG BACK A LITTLE BIT LET THE MARKET FALL FURTHER. THEY COULD COME IN AND SCOOP UP A LOT OF BEANS. REMEMBER THE WHEAT RAHBARI IN THE 70S WILL THIS COULD BE THE BEAN ROBBERY OF THE 2018 WHERE CHINA COMES IN AND REALLY SECURES A LOT OF THEM. I KNOW THAT MAY BE WISHFUL THINKING BUT IT'S A POTENTIAL SCENARIO AND LOW PRICES CREATE THAT TYPE OF THINKING AT THIS POINT. I THINK SOME OF OUR VIEWERS NEED SOME WISHFUL THINKING BECAUSE I KNOW MOODS ARE BEING IMPACTED BUT WHAT IF CHINA WOULD COMMIT WHAT IF THEY WOULD COME IN AND SCOOP UP SOME BEANS UNEXPECTED TO THAT TO THAT TRADE WHAT WOULD HAPPEN.  WELL I THINK I THINK THAT THAT KIND OF NEWS THOUGH IS WHAT THE NEWSWIRES ARE WAITING TO SEE. YOU KNOW WHEN YOU HAVE THIS NEGATIVE NEGATIVE NEGATIVE TALK OR A NEWS STORY LIKE THAT IF SOMETHING WAS TO COME OUT LIKE THAT YOU'RE GOING TO SEE THIS MARKET REACT IN SUCH A QUICK FASHION ALMOST LIKE A RUBBER BAND EFFECT AS YOU STRETCH THAT RUBBER BAND AND YOU LET GO OF ONE HAND BECAUSE NOW THERE'S A REASON TO BUY IT. IT MAY COME BACK VERY QUICKLY AND I THINK IF CHINA DOES SOMETHING LIKE THAT AND AS WE'RE TALKING I THINK THAT THAT EFFECT COULD HAPPEN PRETTY QUICKLY. BRIAN YOU HAVE SOMETHING TO ADD. WELL NO THE SAME THING HOLDS TRUE FOR CORN EVEN LOWER. NO NO NO. CHINA HAS KIND OF BACKED AWAY FROM. OR AT LEAST THE RHETORIC IS THERE BACKING AWAY MAYBE FROM THE IMPLEMENTATION OR ETHANOL MANDATES IN 19 AND 20 BUT IF THOSE COME THROUGH WITH THE WAY THEIR PROJECTED CARRYALL CORN CONTINUES TO DROP YOU KNOW THE WORLD NEEDS US CORN CROP AND SO YOU COULD SEE WHERE THESE PRICES CONTINUE TO DROP TO THE POINT WHERE IT JUST BECOMES A SCENARIO WHERE THEY CANNOT NOT AFFORD TO BUY AND USERS CAN'T. IT'S JUST HOW FAST THEY COME TO THE GATE AND START BUYING AND THEN THEN A DEMAND PICTURE COMES INTO PLAY AND THEN MINDSETS CHANGE ATTITUDES CHANGE SO MAYBE AGAIN WISHFUL THINKING. BUT THE WORLD INVENTORIES IN PARTICULAR CORN ARE PRECARIOUSLY TIGHT FROM HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE RIGHT. THEY ARE TIGHT. EXPORTS HAVE BEEN GOOD. AND USDA WAS BULLISH ON EXPORTS IN THE WEDNESDAY REPORT WHEN IT COMES TO CORN. WE SAW IT IMPACT CORN MARKET FOR A DAY.  BUT WHY ISN'T IT ENOUGH TO LIFT THIS MARKET. WELL IT'S MUCH LIKE WHAT WE'RE SEEING FOR BEANS. IT IS THAT SOMEONE'S GOT THAT FOOT ON OUR HEAD AND KEEPING THINGS DOWN. BUT THE THING IS THOUGH IS IT WILL CHANGE. I THINK AT SOME POINT VERY QUICKLY AND SO WHEN YOU DO SEE USDA ON THIS THIS LAST REPORT LOWER TERRY OUTNUMBERS EVERYONE EXPECTED TO SEE CARRY OUT INCREASE AND WE LOWERED IT AGAIN. YOU'VE GOT FOUR TO FIVE YEARS OF SEEING GLOBAL STOCKS DECLINING. THERE IS A STORY BEHIND CORN. YES WE CAN LOOK AT BEANS AND UNDERSTAND THAT THERE'S A HUGE PILE AND THAT WE'VE GOT BIG KYRIA WE CAN MAKE THAT ARGUMENT. BUT FOR CORN IT'S GETTING TIGHTER HERE DOMESTICALLY IT'S GETTING TIGHTER GLOBALLY. IT WILL BE THAT SOON AS SOMETHING SWITCHES AND YOU START SEEING SOME POSITIVE. MAYBE IT'S THE FUNDS COMING BACK INTO BUYERS SUPPORT OR GET OUT OF SHORT POSITIONS THAT MAY SPARK THAT RUN. BUT I THINK IT'S COMING I THINK IT'S PROBABLY PRETTY SOON BRIAN WHEN IT COMES TO THE CORN MARKET. YOU KNOW THIS WEEK I WAS IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS. I MEAN IT WAS HOT AND IT WAS HUMID BUT IT'S REALLY BEEN PERFECT POLLINATION WEATHER FOR THEM AND WE SEE BETTER TEMPERATURES YOU MENTIONED COMING. YOU KNOW AND WE MISS THE SUMMER WEATHER RALLY. IT'S A MESS AT THIS POINT RIGHT. THERE ARE CERTAINLY AREAS THAT ARE ARE NOT TO BE NEGLECTED AS YOU KNOW YOU'VE GOT TO FEEL FOR THE FARMERS AND DON'T WORRY THAT IN PARTS OF IOWA EVEN WESTERN ILLINOIS AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA NORTHERN IOWA. BUT BUT 70 PERCENT OF THE CROP IS RATED POOR OR VERY POOR 75 PERCENT IS RATED AS GOOD. EXCELLENT. AND ONCE YOU CROSS THIS THRESHOLD MID JULY IF YOU HAVE DECENT WEATHER FORECASTS IT GETS REALLY CHALLENGING HISTORICALLY TO SEE ANY REAL WEATHER EVENT COME AND GRAB HOLD. THE ONE THAT COULD OF COURSE IS DRY WEATHER. YOU MAKE A CROP IN AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER. I THINK IN CORN WE SAW THAT LAST YEAR YOU MIGHT REMEMBER WE ADDED SIX BUSHELS AN ACRE FROM THE SEPTEMBER THROUGH JANUARY USDA REPORTS. THAT'S HUGE. SO YOU KNOW IF WE COULD REPEAT THAT OR WHAT IF WE GO SIX BUSHELS THE OTHER WAY WE'RE GOING TO RUN REALLY REALLY TIGHT IN A HURRY. WE ARE TIGHT. LOOK FOR VIOLENT MOVES. AND LOOKING AT THE PRODUCTION EXPECTATIONS BRIAN MENTIONED IT. WE HAVE AREAS YOU KNOW TEXAS MISSOURI THAT'S DRY THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA WE KNOW IS DRY DRYNESS AND KIND OF NORTHERN INDIANA OUT OUR BACK DOOR THAT WE'RE SEEING YET TO WET IN OTHER AREAS THAT THE CROP IS REALLY SHOWING STRESS WE HAVE THAT POCKET THAT'S REALLY GOOD. SO DOES YOU KNOW AT THIS POINT DOES THE TRADE EXPECT A RECORD CORN CROP. THE TRADE IS EXPECTING A RECORD QUARTER. TO WHAT DEGREE ARE YOU LOOKING AT AT A RECORD YOU KNOW TO LOOK AT SOME OF THE ECONOMIC JUSTIFICATION THAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE TO EXPLAIN SOME OF THE PRICE VALUES THAT WE'RE CURRENTLY AT. IT'S VERY HARD TO DO AND VERY UNBELIEVABLE BECAUSE OF THESE AREAS LIKE YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT THAT ARE HAVING PROBLEMS. LAST YEAR WE HAD A RECORD CROP BECAUSE EVERY SINGLE FRINGE AREA EVERYWHERE WAS GOOD. BUT WE KNOW THAT THERE ARE PROBLEMS. SO JUST TO FOCUS ON GOOD EXCELLENT RIGHT NOW.  LAST YEAR AT THIS TIME WE WERE QUITE A BIT LOWER AND GOOD EXCELLENT RATINGS. NOW WE'VE GOT BETTER GOODKIND RATINGS. HOW MUCH DO WE REALLY HAVE TO BELIEVE THAT BUT WE'LL SEE AS WE GO FORWARD HOW MUCH OF THAT REALLY TICKS PEOPLE WILL JOIN US THIS WEEK. WE APPRECIATE IT. WE NEED TO TAKE A BREAK AND BE BACK WITH MORE U.S FARM REPORT 

BAXTER BLACK
WE'RE HEADING OUT WEST THIS WEEK TO CHECK IN WITH BAXTER BLACK. BAXTER.  OVER THE YEARS I'VE HEARD STORY AFTER STORY OF ACCIDENTS RELATED TO  CALVING SEASON. SO I CAME UP WITH THE LIST OF SAFE CABBING HABITS  THAT MIGHT HELP PREVENT SOME OF THEM. NUMBER ONE FAR AND AWAY THE MOST COMMON TALE I HEAR HAS TO DO WITH LOOPING THE  OBIED CHAIN AROUND YOUR WRIST AND THE OTHER END AROUND THE  CALF'S FOOT. THIS IS CALLED LOOP A DOPE. THE SCENARIO IS THE MAMA COW RISES OR ESCAPES BEFORE THE BABY IS DELIVERED AND DRAGS  YOU THE MIDWIFE ACROSS TWO SECTIONS THE CACTUS MUD CAT TAILS THE  BONE YARD AND THROUGH A NET WIRE FENCE. A TIP TO THE WISE LET THE  LOOSE END OF THE CHAIN HANG LOOSE REGARDLESS OF WHAT YOU THINK  THE UTERUS WILL NOT SWALLOW. ANOTHER FREQUENT CALVING CATASTROPHE INVOLVES PROTECTIVE MOTHERS WHO INTERFERE WITH YOUR POST-NATAL  EFFORTS TO TAG VACCINATE OR TREAT THE NEWBORN. ALAS THIS PRACTICE  HAS BEEN LABELLED TRICKY DOBE FACTORS IN PLACE SEEM TO BE THE  INNOCENT BELIEF THAT HUMANS ARE FASTER QUICKER STRONGER OR  SMARTER THAN THE COWS ADVICE. LET YOUR WIFE DO IT. NUMBER THREE THIS CALVING DISASTER IS THE RESULT OF EXTREMENESS CATTLEMEN WHO  ATTEMPT TO GRAB THE NEWBORN CALF AND DRAG HIM INTO THE PICKUP  CAB BEFORE THE PROTECTIVE MAMA COW CAN INTERVENE. THIS IS KNOWN AS WACK-A-DOPE. IT'S AMAZING HOW FAST QUICK STRONG AND  SMART NEW MAMAS ARE. SOLUTION RESERVE THE EMERGENCY ROOM  AHEAD UNHAPPEN 9 1 1 ALREADY DIALED. BEFORE YOU LEAN OUT THE DOOR AND NUMBER FOUR ADD ROPES BEURS ICE 4 ON THE FLOOR  GEARSHIFT OF THE STORY AND THE POSSIBILITIES OF BODILY HARM ARE  ENDLESS. OBVIOUSLY ROPE-A-DOPE. IN CONCLUSION IN SPITE OF ALL THE RISKS WE TAKE OUR EFFORTS REMAIN HEROIC. WE ARE ON THE FRONTLINES  OF WHERE BEEF BEGINS SO GAURD YOUR LOINS UNITE'S OF THE CALVING  BARN. STAND TALL KEEP YOUR WRIST OUT OF THE LOOP TAKE A DEEP BREATH AND DIVE RIGHT IN. AFTER ALL WHAT COULD POSSIBLY GO WRONG.  THIS IS BAXTER BLACK IN THERE FROM OUT HERE THERE. THANKS, BAXTER!  YOU CAN HEAR MORE FROM BAXTER BY VISITING  BAXTER BLACK DOT COM.  

TEASE
UP NEXT, WHY SOME FARMERS DON'T SUPPORT SNAP IN THE FARM BILL. CUSTOMER SUPPORT IS NEXT. 

CUSTOMER SUPPORT
AS THE CURRENT FARM BILL IS SET TO EXPIRE SEPTEMBER 30TH, DETAILS OF THE 2018 FARM BILL WILL  NEED TO BE HAMMERED OUT DURING THE  CONFERENCING PROCESS.  SNAP IS BOUND TO BE A MAJOR ISSUE TO WORK  THROUGH, AND IT'S SNAP THAT'S THE TOPIC OF THIS  WEEK'S CUSTOMER SUPPORT.  BOB WILSON HAS A COMMENT ABOUT FARMERS SUPPORTING THE SNAP  PROGRAM: "MY QUESTION IS HAVE FARMERS FORGOT WHERE THEY CAME FROM? I  WONDER WHY NOW IT IS WE SHOULDN'T SUPPORT THE SNAP PROGRAM,  LIKE [WE SUPPORT] CROP INSURANCE. I HAVE ALWAYS KNOWN WHY SNAP WAS STARTED. I'M SURE FARMERS TODAY DO NOT. THE FOUNDATION FOR  SNAP WAS FIRST BUILT IN 1933 AS PART OF THE AGRICULTURAL  ADJUSTMENT ACT (AAA). THE PROGRAM, REFERRED TO AS THE FEDERAL SURPLUS RELIEF CORPORATION, WAS ESTABLISHED IN THE MIDST OF THE  GREAT DEPRESSION, WHEN PRICES FOR CROPS FELL DRAMATICALLY AND  FARMS ACROSS AMERICA WERE STRUGGLING TO DEAL WITH THE EXCESS SUPPLY. TO SUPPORT FARMERS, THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BOUGHT  BASIC FARM COMMODITIES AT DISCOUNT PRICES AND DISTRIBUTED THEM  AMONG HUNGER RELIEF AGENCIES IN STATES AND LOCAL COMMUNITIES." BOB, YOU WILL BE SURPRISED TO KNOW I DON'T ACTUALLY REMEMBER THE  GREAT DEPRESSION - I JUST LOOK THAT OLD. I DO REMEMBER HEARING A  LOT ABOUT THE AAA FROM MY FATHER, HOWEVER. FARMER SUPPORT FOR  SNAP (OR FOOD STAMPS AS IT USED TO BE CALLED) HAS BECOME FAIRLY CYNICAL, IN MY OPINION. WITHOUT SNAP IN THE FARM BILL, THERE  LIKELY WOULDN'T BE MUCH OF A FARM BILL. FEWER THAN 35 OF THE 435  CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS HAVE FARMING AS THE MAJOR INDUSTRY. TO  GET URBAN LEGISLATOR VOTES FOR FARM SUBSIDIES, THE SNAP PROGRAM IS INCLUDED IN THE FARM BILL. IT MAKES NO SENSE LOGICALLY OR FROM A  POLICY PERSPECTIVE, HOWEVER. FARM PRODUCTION TODAY HAS  OUTGROWN DOMESTIC DEMAND, SO THE SNAP PROGRAM DOES  RELATIVELY LITTLE TO IMPROVE USAGE OF THE LARGEST CROPS LIKE CORN OR  SOYBEANS. WE'RE PUSHING TOWARD A FULL CENTURY SINCE THE GREAT DEPRESSION.  WHILE IT HAS BEEN USEFUL FOR MANY LESSONS ABOUT AG POLICY, I'M  NOT SURE HOW THOSE PRINCIPLES CAN BE APPLIED EFFECTIVELY IN AN AG ECONOMY WHERE 40 PERCENT OF CORN GOES TO FUEL AND HALF THE  SOYBEANS ARE EXPORTED. STILL, YOUR POINT IS WELL TAKEN. SNAP  ORIGINALLY WAS ABOUT BOTH FARMERS AND CONSUMERS, AND IF FARMERS WANT TO KEEP IT IN THE FARM BILL, THEY WOULD BE WISE TO REMEMBER  ITS ROOTS. THANKS, JOHN. REMMEBER, IF YOU HAVE A QUESTION  OR COMMENT FOR JOHN EMAIL HIM AT MAILBAG AT U-S  FARM REPORT DOT COM. 

TEASE
WHEN WE COME BACK, WHEAT HARVEST MAY NOT BE BOUNTIFUL EVERYWHERE, BUT IT'S CREATING A  BEAUTIFUL BACKDROP THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE'LL SHOW  YOU PICTURES NEXT. 

FROM THE FARM
WELCOME BACK. WHILE WHEAT HARVEST IS GOING STRONG IN    MICHIGAN MIKE AND COREY SAID AS THE SUN SET HE HAD TO JUMP OUT  OF THE COMBINE TO CAPTURE THE MOMENT. I'M SO GLAD HE DID   BECAUSE WHAT A PHOTO AND I HOPE THOSE YIELDS ARE AS BEAUTIFUL    AS THAT SUNSET. NO DOUBT. THAT IS BEAUTIFUL. MEANWHILE RUSSELL    BAMIAN SAYS THEY ARE BURNING UP SOUTH OF SAN ANTONIO. HE SAYS  THAT DRYLAND CORN IS IN THE FOREGROUND AND IT MAY AVERAGE JUST 40  BUSHELS PER ACRE. THE IRRIGATED CROP IN THE BACK HAS THE   POTENTIAL TO GO 160 TO 180 BUSHELS PER ACRE. HE SAYS UNTIL THE    PAST WEEK'S SOUTH TEXAS HAS BEEN HOT AND DRY FOR EIGHT WEEKS    RAIN CAME THIS WEEK WAS TOO LATE. UNFORTUNATELY CAMMACK   WE'VE BEEN HEARING ABOUT THE DRY CONDITIONS IN TEXAS. I MEAN ALL  ACROSS THE STATE INCLUDING THE LUBBOCK AREA WHERE SOME    FARMERS SAY COTTON DIDN'T EVEN COME UP. WE SAW THAT    ABANDONMENT IN THE LATEST WAZA REPORT. BUT YOU KNOW I THINK    SOME PRODUCERS ARE HOPING THAT POSSIBLY THESE WEATHER PATTERNS  CHANGE AND IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT'S BECOMING EVEN MORE LIKELY WE'LL   EE EL NINO THIS YEAR. THERE IS NOW A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF EL    NINO BETWEEN DECEMBER AND FEBRUARY. NOW THAT'S ACCORDING TO  A NEW REPORT FROM THE U.S. CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER. BUT WHAT    DO YOU THINK WE COULD START SEEING PATTERNS CHANGE AS WE HEAD    INTO FALL. EVEN THOUGH THEY'RE NOT SAYING UNTIL DECEMBER TO   FEBRUARY TIMEFRAME YES BECAUSE WHAT WE TYPICALLY LOOK AT IS WE   TRY AND LOOK AT YEARS THAT DID GO FROM A LA NIÑA TO A WEAK EL    NINO.  AND WHEN WE LOOK AT THOSE YEARS MOST OF THEM DO TURN    COOLER IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN CORN BELT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF    SUMMER. THAT'S ONE OF THE BIG THINGS WE SEE. WE ALSO SEE A LOT   OF MOISTURE IN THE MONSOON MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WE   KIND OF HOPE SPILLS INTO TEXAS OCCASIONALLY ALTHOUGH A LOT OF THAT    TENDS TO GO FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.    AGAIN IT WOULD BE TOO LATE FOR THIS YEAR'S CROP BUT AT LEAST    HOPEFULLY REBUILD SOME OF THAT WARM MOIST MOISTURE PROFILE. 

CLOSE
ALL    RIGHT IF YOU HAVE A PICTURE OR A VIDEO THAT YOU WOULD LIKE TO SEND    AND YOU CAN DO THAT TO THE ADDRESS ON THE SCREEN AND FROM ALL OF  US AT U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M MIKE HOFFMAN AND I'M TIME MORGAN.    THANK YOU FOR WATCHING. BE SURE TO JOIN US AGAIN RIGHT HERE NEXT   WEEK AS WE WORK TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION. HAVE A GREAT    WEEKEND EVERYONE.     

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