USFR Weekly Recap - July 15-16, 2017

July 15, 2017 03:30 AM
 

TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
JULY 15-16, 2017


HEADLINES
WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M TYNE MORGAN,  AND HERE'S WHAT WE'RE WORKING ON FOR YOU OVER  THE NEXT 60 MINUTES.  USDA ADJUSTS THEIR LEDGER, BUT IT'S THE WEATHER  CATCHING THE MARKET'S EYE.. OHIO FARMERS CAN'T CATCH A BREAK FROM MOTHER  NATURE. <"IT'S BEEN ALMOST A NIGHTMARE,"> SO, JUST HOW BAD IS IT? THAT'S OUR FARM JOURNAL  REPORT.  THE TIDES ARE TURNING FOR EQUIPMENT DEALERS.. <THE USED INVENTORY LEVEL OF DEALERS AROUND THE COUNTRY HAS  BEEN CHANGING SO IS NOW SITLL THE TIME TO BUY? W'ERE ON THE  ROAD WITH MACHINERY PETE.  AND IN JOHN'S WORLD... <ALCOHOL CONSUMPTION ON TEH DECLINE? WHO WOULD HAVE THOUGHT>

WASDE REPORT
NOW FOR THE NEWS THAT MOVED THE MARKETS, USDA  RASING CORN CARRYOUT, BUT TRIMMING THE SOYBEAN  NUMBER IN ITS LATEST REPORT. BUT FOR THE MARKET, IT'S ALL ABOUT WEATHER.  USDA BOOSTING ITS CORN PRODUCTION FORECAST BY  190 MILLION BUSHELS. THE AGENCY NOW PEGS  PRODUCTION AT 14 POINT 2 BILLION BUSHELS.  USDA LEAVING YIELD UNCHANGED AT THIS POINT, AT 17 POINT 7 BUSHELS PER ACRE.\\ AND SOYBEAN PRODUCTION COMING IN AT 4 POITN 2  BILLION BUSHELS. USDA ALSO NOT TOUCHING THE  YIELD FORECAST AT THIS TIME AT 48 BUSHELS PER  ACRE. MEANWHILE, USDA CHANGING HTE CORN AND SOYBEAN  CARRYOUT LEDGER. HERE'S CHIP NELLINGER WITH  BLUE REEF AGRIMARKETING.  <I THINK A COUPLE SURPRISES, NUMEBR 1 I THINK BEAN  CARRYOUT, A LITTLE BIT LOWER THAN EXPECTED THEY CUT NEW CROP BEAN  CARRYOUT BY 35 MILLION BUSHELS, BETTER DMENAD. HOWEVER ONT EH  CORN SIDE, CORN CARRYOUT UP 150 MILLION BUSHELS A LITTLE LOWER  DEMAND. SO BIG PICTURE I THINK YOU DIGEST THIS REPORT, IT'S MORE  ABOUT HTE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS>A USDA RAISING IT'S WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION  FORECAST BY 2 PERCENT, NOW AT 1 POINT 28 BILLION  BUSHELS.  THAT'S STILL DOWN 23 PERCENT FROM LAST YEAR.  YIELD IS FORECAST AT 49 POINT 7 BUSHELS PER ACRE,  UP NEARLY A BUSHEL FROM LAST MONTH.  IF REALIZED, IT'LL MARK THE SECOND HIGHEST YIELD  ON RECORD IN THE UNITED STATES... ONLY TRAILING  LAST YEAR. AND DESPITE REPORTS OF DRY WEATHER FOCING  CROP ABANDONMENT, USDA PLACING SPRING WHEAT  PRODUCTION AT 422 POINT 9 MILLION BUSHELS,  LEAVING HARVESTED ACRES UNCHANGED AT 10 POINT 5  MILLION ACRES.  RUSSIA IS NOW THE WORLD'S TOP WHEAT EXPORTER. IN USDA'S LATEST REPORT, OFFICIALS BOOSTED  RUSSIAN WHEAT EXPORT PROJECTIONS TO 30 POINT 5  MILLION TONNES, ONE POINT FIVE MILLION TONNES  HIGHER.  THIS COMPLIMENTS A LARGER THAN EXPECTED  RUSSIAN WHEAT CROP. IF IT HOLDS TRUE, ITS THE FIRST TIME RUSSIA TOOK  THE TOP EXPORT TITLE.

COW DEATHS DURING HEAT WAVE
AND IT'S THE HEAT TAKING ITS TOLL ON CALIFORNIA DAIRY PRODUCERS.ACCORDING TO OUR PARTNERS AT DAIRY HERD MANAGEMENT, A JUNE HEAT WAVE IN THE STATE KILLED AN ESTIMATED OF 4 THOUSAND TO 6 THOSUAND COWS IN FRESNO COUNTY, ALONE. TEMPERATRES REACHED ABOTVE 100 DEGREES FOR NINE DAYS STRAIGHT, PEAKING OUT AT 112 DEGREES. 

WEATHER
MIKE, THE MARKET IS REALLY WATCHING THE WEATHER  RIGHT NOW, ESPCIALLY THOUGHTS OF DRY WEATHER  OVER NEBRASKA AND IOWA... WHO GETS RAIN NEXT  WEEK?  THANKS TEI OVERALL I DON'T THINK THE LOWER 48 GETS A WHOLE LOT OF RAIN THIS WEEK. BUT THERE ARE SOME AREAS LIKE WELL IOWA AND NEBRASKA MAY AS A FRONT KIND OF STALLS OUT IN YOUR AREA AGAIN. WE'LL GET TO THAT IN A MOMENT. IN THE MEANTIME IS THE DROUGHT MONITOR ESPECIALLY FOR THE DAKOTAS INTO MONTANA. YOU GO BACK ONE MONTH AND THERE WERE STILL SOME POCKETS IN THE EAST BUT MOST OF THOSE ARE GONE. WE WERE SEEING THAT INCREASING DRYNESS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT'S GONE AWAY AS WELL. BUT LET'S ADD IN THE NEXT THREE WEEKS AND YOU CAN SEE HOW THINGS HAVE CONTINUED TO EXPAND UNFORTUNATELY IN THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS EASTERN MONTANA AND A FEW SPOTS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS AS WELL. ALL RIGHT. DAY BY DAY WE HAVE A WEAK COOL FRONT IN THE EAST AS WE START THE WEEK. JUST A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE EASTERN SEABOARD SPOTTY AFTERNOON VARIETY STORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST. THAT'S TYPICAL FOR THIS YEAR. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS GOING TO MOVE PRETTY QUICKLY THE WAY IT LOOKS JUST SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG AND ON MONDAY BY THE TIME WE GET TO WEDNESDAY DOESN'T HAVE MUCH ALONG IT EITHER BUT IT STALLS OUT ACROSS IOWA AND NEBRASKA AND OF COURSE IF THAT'S FARTHER NORTH OR SOUTH THAT COULD CHANGE WHO GETS THE RAIN. BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THAT AREA.  OTHERWISE JUST HIT AND MISS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY THEN EVERYTHING STARTS TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AGAIN IT TAKES THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FARTHER SOUTH AND WE'LL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE APPALACHIANS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO FLORIDA AND A LITTLE BIT ALONG THAT FRONT INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OTHERWISE JUST HOT OUT WEST AN AFTERNOON VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS. WE'LL CHECK OUR LONGER RANGE FORECAST IN OUR NEXT HALF HOUR. THANKS, MIKE.

TEASE
WEATHER IS HUGE RIGHT NOW, SO IS THAT  OVERSHADOWING THE LATEST USDA REPORT? OUR  ROUNDTABLES ARE ON THE ROAD FROM THE FIRST  EVER FARM JOURNAL YIELD TOUR. MARK GOLD, CHIP NELLINGER AND BOB UTTERBACK  JOIN ME NEXT. 

ROUNDTABLE 1
WELCOME BACK TO U.S. FARM REPORT. THIS WEEKEND WE'RE AT THE FIRST EVER FARM JOURNAL YIELD TOUR THE FIRST OF THREE STOPS HERE AT THE PRECISION PLANNING HEADQUARTERS IN TREMONT ILLINOIS. IT'S A REALLY GOOD LOOKING CROPS AROUND HERE BUT IT'S REALLY VARIABLE SO WE'LL GET WE'LL GET INTO THAT. BUT WE RECORDED THE SEGMENT ON WEDNESDAY RIGHT AFTER USDA REPORT HIT. SO LET'S DIVE INTO THAT REAL QUICK. WE DON'T KNOW EXACTLY WHAT THE AFTERMATH IS GOING TO BE BUT MARK WHAT ARE YOUR INITIAL THOUGHTS ON THE LATEST USDA REPORT. WELL I THINK IT'S. A REPORT THAT'S THAT REALLY VALID. THE CONDITIONS HAVE CHANGED A LOT SINCE JULY 1ST. SO I THINK THE ROGUE REPORT WAS OUT DATED THE MINUTE IT HIT THE WIRE. I THINK WOULD REALLY PUSHED THE MARKET LOWER AT LEAST WHILE WE'RE RECORDING THIS WAS LOOKS LIKE THERE WAS A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PUTTING IN SOME WETTER FORECASTS. BUT I THINK THIS IS AN OPPORTUNITY IN MY OPINION THAT IF YOU SOLD SOME GRAIN, HERE'S A GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO BUY BACK SOME CALL OPTIONS AT A CHEAPER PRICE. CORN DID NOT RESPOND POSITIVELY BUT CHIP WHAT HAPPENED ON SOYBEANS. WHERE DO WE SEE CARRY OUT ON SOYBEANS. WELL THEY ACTUALLY CUT CARRY OUT MAYBE A LITTLE MORE THAN EXPECTED. SO DEMAND'S VERY GOOD. AND WHAT THAT TELLS ME IS LIKE MARK SAID--LOTS OF VARIABILITY IN WHETHER IT'S BEEN HOT. THERE'S AREAS THAT ARE STILL MISSING RAINFALL. JUST A TWO OR THREE BUSHEL SWING AND FINAL BEAN YIELDS THIS YEAR. I MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN YOU KNOW BACK TO NINE DOLLARS OR WE GOT TO SPEND SOME TIME MAYBE NORTH OF 11 AND MAYBE CHALLENGE 12. SO THREE OR FOUR BUSHELS. HUGE DIFFERENCE IN BEANS BECAUSE THE DEMAND IS SO BIG. AND I KNOW BOB WEATHER IS MORE IMPORTANT AT THIS POINT IN THIS REPORT BUT DOES THIS REPORT REMIND US THAT WE DO HAVE A LOT OF STOCKS ON OUR ON OUR HANDS. THAT WAS CONFIRMATION. AND BEANS STOCKS WERE DOWN BUT NOT AS MUCH AS WE WANT. I THINK A LOT OF PEOPLE WERE WE'RE TALKING 4.20, 4.30. SO THIS BEAN STOCKS WERE POSITIVE REDUCTION BUT NOT AS MUCH AS ANTICIPATED. BUT THE BURDEN OF PROOF NOW IS SQUARELY ON THE BULL. HE'S GOT TO PROVE THAT THE CORN YIELD AT 170. I THINK NOBODY BELIEVES IT'S 170 BUT THERE'S PEOPLE OUT THERE NOW QUOTING 157. SO THE BULL HAS GOT TO GET THE YIELD DOWN TO AROUND 164 163 BEFORE HE CAN REALLY GET SOME TRACTION TO THE UPSIDE AND ACTIVATE SOME UPSIDE BUYING. AND I THINK HE'S GOT TO PROVE IT WITH BAD HOT CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. 157 ON A CORN YIELD--DO YOU THINK THAT'S POSSIBLE. WELL I KNOW SOME BRIGHT PEOPLE THAT ARE SAYING SUB 160 I DON'T SEE IT THERE NOW I THINK WE'RE PROBABLY CLOSER TO ONE SIXTY THREE. AND AGAIN BOB MENTIONED THE ACRES. I DON'T KNOW THAT ALL THE LOST ACRES HAVE BEEN REALLY ADDED INTO THIS REPORT. SO OVERALL I THINK WE'RE GOING TO SEE SOME LOWER PRODUCTION NUMBERS. CORN AND BEANS WHEN IT'S ALL SAID AND DONE. I THINK WE GOT TO SEE SOME PRICES MOVE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER. BOB WANTS TO SEE PROOF OF A BULL MARKET HERE. SINCE JUNE 30TH I THINK WE'VE SEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF PROOF. THIS MARKET HAS DONE EVERYTHING YOU'D WANT IT TO DO AFTER JUNE 30TH TO SHOW THAT YOU'VE CHANGED THE TIDE HERE. WE'VE OPENED LOWER AND CLOSED HIGHER. WE GAPPED OPEN HIGHER THE FRIDAY OR THE MONDAY AFTER THE REPORT ON THE 30TH. WE GAPPED TO OPEN HIGHER THE NEXT WEEK AND THE WEEK AFTER THAT. THAT'S ALL VERY POSITIVE IN MY OPINION. SO TO ME THIS ACTS LIKE A BULL MARKET. YES. SO MARK THINKS WE'RE IN A BULL MARKET BUT DO YOU THINK WE HAVE ENOUGH LEGS TO REALLY KEEP IT THAT WAY CHIP? WELL IF WE'RE AT 160 OR BELOW FOR A FINAL YIELD, ABSOLUTELY. YOU'RE GOING TO RALLY ON IN THE SPRING AND NEXT SUMMER. THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN. BUT I THINK THE BIGGEST THING I AGREE WITH MARK. I DON'T THINK A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE LOOKING AT LAST YEAR AND SAYING HEY THIS IS A REPEAT OF LAST YEAR WE STARTED GETTING BETTER RAINS IN JUNE. I HAD A RECORD CROP DOWN WE WENT INTO HARVEST. I DON'T SEE THAT. DEMAND IS BETTER. THE WHEAT SITUATION IS DIFFERENT IN THE WORLD. DOESN'T MEAN WE'RE GOING GO STRAIGHT UP, BUT I THINK IT'S A MORE LIMITED DOWNSIDE AND I DO THINK THAT YOU KNOW THE BREAKS ARE FOR BUYING AND ADJUSTING POSITIONS YOU KNOW BUYING CALLS ON EXISTING SALES. AND I DO THINK ON INTO WINTER AND SPRING WE'RE GOING TO SEE BETTER THINGS. BOB LAST TIME YOU WERE ON THE SHOW WHICH WASN'T THAT LONG AGO YOU KIND OF COMPARED THIS MARKET MAYBE 1993 WHERE WE REALIZED WE DON'T PUT MAYBE THE HIGH END RIGHT NOW WE KIND OF REALIZE THAT THIS CROP IS NOT THAT GOOD. AND THEN WE SEE PRICES RESPOND POSITIVELY. DO YOU STILL THINK THAT. YEAH I THINK THAT'S I THINK THE ACREAGE CENTRAL ILLINOIS INDIANA OHIO I THINK THERE'S ACRES WHERE WE JUST GOT FLOODED OUT AND IN THE END AGAIN I THINK THERE'S ACRES THAT ARE LAWS THAT WERE NOT REFLECTED IN JUNE ACREAGE REPORT. I THINK THE CORN ACRES COULD BE DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS SOUNDS BULLISH, SO THIS IS WHY IT'S IMPORTANT IN HOW YOU SELL. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE YEARS WHERE YOU SHOULDN'T BE SELLING THE CASH FOR SHORT FUTURES AND TAKING IT SAY I'M DONE. THIS A YEAR YOU GOT TO GIVE YOURSELF A SAFETY VALVE. AND THAT'S WHERE I LIKE MINE--THE IN THE MONEY PUTS AND ROLLING THEM UP. IF THE MARKET RALLIES OR BEING LONG A CALL AGAINST THE CASH SELL. THIS YEAR I THINK YOU COULD HAVE A SEPTEMBER DECEMBER RALLY IF WE CONFIRM THE ACRES DOWN AND WE HAVE A YIELD SOUTH OF 164. WE CAN HAVE THE HIGH END CORN MARKET IN JAN FEB WHICH WILL PRESENT A FANTASTIC OPPORTUNITY FOR 2018 MARKETING. WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT THAT. WELL I AGREE THAT GET SOME GOOD OPPORTUNITIES AHEAD OF YOU. BUT I THINK YOU'VE GOT A GOOD OPPORTUNITY RIGHT HERE IN FRONT OF YOU NOW. EIGHT MONTHS AGO I KEPT SAYING I'VE BEEN SAYING THAT UP TILL NOW THE AMERICAN FARMER WOULD HAVE AT LEAST ONE OPPORTUNITY TO MARKET GRAIN AT PROFITABLE LEVELS. AND I SAID THIS WHEN WHEN CORN WAS AT 350 AND BEANS WERE NINE BUCKS. WELL YOU'VE GOT IT HERE GUYS. AND WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO DO WITH IT. LAST YEAR AND SO MANY OTHER YEARS YOU'VE LET THAT ONE OPPORTUNITY SLIP BY. SO YOU WANT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS RALLY, GET SOMETHING SOLD, BY SOME CALL OPTIONS IF YOU STILL THINK THERE'S UPSIDE, BUT MARKET SOME GRAIN, BUY SOME PUTS, AND PROTECT THE DOWNSIDE. NO MATTER WHERE THESE PRICES ARE GOING IN A FEW MONTHS IT IS ALL ABOUT WHETHER WE TALKED ABOUT THAT BRIEFLY WE'LL GET INTO THAT A LITTLE BIT MORE WITH CHIP WHEN WE COME BACK. U.S. FARM REPORT. 

ROUNDTABLE 2
WELCOME BACK. CONTINUING OUR MARKETING DISCUSSION FROM THE FARM JOURNAL TO HERE IN TREEMONT, ILLINOIS. YOU KNOW WE TALKED ABOUT THE REPORT WE TALKED ABOUT YIELD BUT RIGHT NOW REALLY THE FOCUS IS WEATHER THERE'S TALK TO THIS DOME OVER THE AREA WHERE MAYBE WE'RE NOT GOING TO SEE RAIN WE'RE GOING TO SEE SOME HOT TEMPERATURES. WHAT IF THAT DOESN'T HAPPEN AND WHAT IF THAT THAT GOES AWAY. I MEAN DO WE LOSE THE LEGS OF THIS OF THIS MARKET. WELL I THINK TO SOME EXTENT I THINK TODAY'S A PERFECT EXAMPLE OF THAT. SO THE KNEE-JERK REACTION ON THE REPORT IN THE CASE OF BEANS WAS HIGHER. WE WERE TRADING LOWER BEFORE THE REPORT, THEY CUT THE CARRY OUT A LITTLE BIT. THERE WAS NOTHING BEARISH THERE. BEANS TRADE HIGHER. TEN MINUTES LATER THEY CHANGED THE FORECASTS, ADD A BUNCH OF WHETHER, THEY'RE BACK DOWN 15. THAT'S GOING TO TELL YOU HOW VOLATILE THIS THING IS. MARK MENTIONED IT IN THE FIRST SEGMENT AND I AGREE WITH HIM. THERE'S JUST TOO MUCH VARIABILITY IN OUR OPINION. LATEST PLANET CROP EVER MORE REPLANT THAN EVER. THERE'S AREAS GETTING TOO MUCH RAIN. THERE'S AREAS NOT GETTING ENOUGH RAIN. TO ME THE VARIABILITY MEANS WE DON'T HAVE TREND LINE YIELDS. WE CERTAINLY DON'T HAVE RECORD YIELDS AND THAT MEANS TO ME MORE VOLATILITY AND BETTER OPPORTUNITIES GOING FORWARD. I CAN SAY THE FIRST TIME THAT I WAS IMPRESSED WITH THIS YEAR'S CROP WAS RIGHT HERE AROUND THE PEORIA ILLINOIS AREA FROM FROM JUST A BIRD'S EYE VIEW YOU KNOW IT LOOKS IT LOOKS DECENT BUT VARIABILITY IS THERE. I MEAN IT IS DEFINITELY THERE ALL OVER THE BOARD. SO LET'S SAY WE DON'T HIT TREND LINE YIELD. OK. BUT AT THE SAME TIME WE STILL HAVE THE STOCK'S SITUATION A LOT OF STOCKS. IS THAT KIND OF THE CEILING ON PRICES. I THINK IT PUTS IT IT KEEPS AWAY THE EXTREMELY HIGHER PRICES. YOU KNOW DEC 18 CORN RIGHT NOW IS UP FOR ALMOST A 430 30 JULY 2018 WHEAT SEEN SIX DOLLAR PLUS WITH TEN DOLLAR BEANS. SO WHEAT BEAN DOUBLE CROP RIGHT NOW FOR OH 18 IS A VERY VALID RETURN ON INVESTMENT STARTING POINT. I DON'T WANT TO GO NUTS BUT YOU KNOW THESE ARE VALUES THAT WE WOULD HAVE DIED FOR SIX MONTHS AGO AND NOW EVERYBODY'S SAYING WELL IT'S NOT HIGH ENOUGH. AND THIS IS WHAT ALWAYS HAPPENS AT THE TOP OF THE BULL MARKET IS EVERYBODY TURNS BULLISH AND SHOULDN'T. I THINK WE SHOULD BE CONCENTRATING ON RETURN INVESTMENT. AND THESE ARE VALID PRICE LEVELS. COULDN'T WE GO TO 450 475 CORN, YEAH IF WE HAVE A BELOW 160 CORN YIELD AND IF WE HAVE A MILLION MILLION HAVE CORN ACRES LOST, YEAH I GOT TO GIVE YOU THAT. BUT WHY NOT PUT YOURSELF IN A STRATEGY TO GET A FLOOR AND IF THE MARKET RALLIES SHOULD TAKE ADVANTAGE. THAT'S THE LONG PUT OR SHORT CASH LONG CALL. BUT TRYING TO OUT GUESS WHAT WE'RE GOING TO DO WITH ALL THIS VARIABILITY, IF YOU'RE THAT SMART, QUIT FARMING AND GO TO CHICAGO AND BE A FLOOR TRADER AND MAKE AND I DON'T THINK I MET TOO MANY CHICAGO FLOOR TRADERS WHO ARE STILL THERE. THEY'VE ALL LEFT. GOT A COUPLE OF EXAMPLES UP HERE ON THE STAGE. SO LET'S SAY A 163 IS MAYBE THE YIELD. LET'S JUST SAY THAT MAYBE WE DO HIT ONE SIXTY THREE. WHAT DOES THAT DO TO PRICES. I KNOW WE HATE PREDICTING PRICES BUT JUST GIVE US A BALLPARK. WELL I THINK. FIRST OF ALL YOU GOT TO LOOK AT WHAT THE FUNDS HAVE DONE. THE FUNDS HAVE COVERED THEIR SHORT CORN AND SHORT BEAN POSITIONS THE BEST OF OUR KNOWLEDGE. WE THINK WE'RE ABOUT EVEN NOW. THAT'S GIVEN THESE PRICES A BIG JUMP AND IT'S GIVEN YOU GUYS ANOTHER MARKETING OPPORTUNITY. THE QUESTION IS ARE THEY GOING TO GET LONG IN HERE. AND THAT'S WHAT WILL REALLY PUSH US TO THAT NEXT LEVEL. EVERY ONE OF THESE WET FORECASTS THAT WE'D SEE POP UP HERE OVER THE LAST THREE WEEKS FOUR WEEKS HAS BEEN A BUYING OPPORTUNITY. I DON'T KNOW IF THIS ONE'S GOING TO BE THE ONE THAT REALLY DOES CHANGE THE WEATHER OR NOT BUT THE FACT IS IF THE FUNDS WANT TO BUY IT TAKE IT AND GET LONG CORN AND BEANS NOW, WE'RE GOING HIGHER. IF THEY DECIDE OK THIS IS THE TOP, WE CAN GO RIGHT BACK DOWN AGAIN. CHIP. CONSIDERING ALL THE VARIOUS VARIABILITY. CONSIDERING ALL THE UNKNOWNS. WHAT'S YOUR ADVICE TO PRODUCERS RIGHT NOW. WELL I THINK BOB HIT HIT THE NAIL ON THE HEAD AND I DON'T DISAGREE WITH THAT. I DON'T WANT ANYBODY TO HEAR US UP HERE SAYING HEY WE'RE GOING TO HOLD EVERYTHING AND WE'VE GOT HIGHER PRICES. NUMBER ONE HAVE A PLAN. WE KNOW THERE'S GOING TO BE MORE VOLATILITY AND SO HAVE A PLAN. WHAT NUMBER WORKS IN YOUR OWN OPERATION. THAT'S CRITICALLY IMPORTANT. WHERE HAVE YOU BEEN GETTING RAIN. ARE YOU GOOD FOR APH YIELDS RIGHT NOW OR ARE YOU MISSING RAIN AND YOU'RE GOING TO BE SUB TREND LINE YIELDS ON YOUR FARM. I THINK THAT'S IMPORTANT. SO YOU'VE GOT TO HAVE A PLAN TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS VOLATILITY. SELL THE RALLIES ADJUST THAT BY CALLS AGAINST THOSE SALES ON BREAKS. I THINK IT'S GOING TO BE A MUCH BETTER OPPORTUNITY IN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS AND WE'VE SEEN THE LAST 18. ALL RIGHT SOME PROMISE. HOPEFULLY SOME PROMISE THERE. BOB LET'S SWITCH TO LIVESTOCK REAL QUICK. STRONG STRONG HOG PRICES. I MEAN WE'VE SEEN STRONG DEMAND BUT AT THE SAME TIME WE KNOW WE HAVE A LOT OF HOGS OUT THERE ON OUR HANDS RIGHT NOW. SO IS IT SOLELY DEMAND DRIVING THIS? YES DEMAND HAS BEEN DRIVING US AND WE FORECASTED FOR THE THIRD OR FOURTH QUARTER BETWEEN 3 TO 4 PERCENT MORE INVENTORY. RIGHT SO WE'RE HEAVILY DEPENDENT UPON DEMAND CONTINUING. AND WE'RE WERE IN THE SUMMER TIME PERIOD WHEN WE NORMALLY MAKE THE HIGHS FOR HOG MARKET IN JUNE-JULY. SO I WOULD STRONGLY ADVISE START GETTING SOME TYPE OF FLOOR UNDERNEATH YOUR THIRD AND FOURTH QUARTER INVENTORY NUMBERS BECAUSE IF GREENMARKET DOES TAKE OFF. THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME LIQUIDATION OF INVENTORY WHICH LONG TERM WOULD HELP THE HOG MARKET BUT IT COULD REALLY PUSH SOME PROBLEMS IN OCTOBER THROUGH FEBRUARY. SO I THINK YOU'VE GOT TO BE IN A DEFENSIVE MODE AS A HOG PRODUCER RIGHT NOW ONLY ABOUT 30 SECONDS LEFT THAT BOTH OF YOU REAL QUICK THAT'S ON CATTLE PRICES. I THINK WE'RE FAIRLY PRICED RIGHT NOW. COULD RALLY 6 8 BUCKS BUT I THINK IT'S GOING TO BE LESS VOLATILITY. 125 ON THE UPSIDE LOW 110 105 ON THE DOWNSIDE. MARK YEAH I CAN AGREE WITH THAT. I THINK THE CHINESE DEMAND IS GOING TO START PICKING UP BRING A DIFFERENT LITTLE TENOR TO THIS MARKET. I THINK THAT'S ALL POSITIVE. WE KNOW WE'VE GOT BIGGER NUMBERS OUT THERE. WE'VE GOT SOME SHORT TERM LIQUIDATION IN SOUTH DAKOTA BECAUSE OF THE WEATHER. BUT I THINK ONCE WE GET THROUGH THAT WE CAN MOVE HIGHER. ALL RIGHT WE'LL GET THE CLOSING THAT WE COME BACK ON US FARM REPORT.

MARKETS NOW
WELCOME BACK. TIME NOW FOR CLOSING THOUGHTS. MARK  GOLD. YOU HAVE THE ONE OPPORTUNITY IN FRONT OF YOU WE'VE BEEN  WAITING FOR IT ALL YEAR. TAKE ADVANTAGE OF IT. MARKETS ARE GREAT.  CHIP, YOU HAVE TO HAVE A WELL-THOUGHT OUT STRATEGIC PLAN  OR YOU'RE GOING TO GET CAUGHT UP IN THE VOLATILITY. VOLATILITY IS  GOING TO BE MUCH GREATER THE NEXT SIX MONTHS THAN THE LAST FIVE.  BOB: THE FORM OF HOW YOU SELL IS CRITICAL RIGHT NOW.  BY PUTS AND ROLL UP. DON'T TRY TO OUTGUESS THE MARKETS,  BECAUSE YOU WON'T ACCOMPLISH IT. ON'T GIVE US THE MARKET YOU WILL  ACCOMPLISH.   ALL RIGHT. STAY WITH US. JOHN PHIPPS IS NEXT. 

JOHN’S WORLD
DESPITE THE RAGE OVER MICROBREWERIES, JOHN  PHIPPS IS TAKING NOTE OF AN INTERESTING TREND. HE JOINS US NOW FROM TEH FARM.  DID NOT SEE THIS COMING. ALCOHOL CONSUMPTION, AND ESPECIALLY  BEER CONSUMPTION IS DROPPING - NOT JUST HERE IN THE US, BUT  AROUND THE GLOBE. WHILE SOME OF THE DECLINE IS DUE TO  CONSUMERS SHIFTING TO HIGHER PRICED DRINKS, LIKE MORE WINE AND  LESS BEER AS WORLD INCOME RISES, ALL CATEGORIES SEEM TO BE  DROPPING. KEEP IN MIND THIS IS WHILE POPULATION CONTINUES TO  CLIMB, SO THE PER PERSON RATE IS DECLINING EVEN FASTER. BEVERAGE INDUSTRY EXPERTS AREN'T SURE WHAT IS CAUSING THIS  DECLINE. SO I'D SAY IT'S TIME FOR SOME NON-EXPERTS - LIKE ME - TO  OFFER OPINIONS.THE FIRST POSSIBILITY IS CHOICE FRUSTRATION. YOU SAMPLE A NEW  WINE, CRAFT BEER OR MICRODISTILLERY BOURBON AT DINNER WITH FRIENDS.  WHAT ARE THE CHANCES YOU'LL EVER FIND THAT BOTTLE IN YOUR LOCAL  RETAILER - OR EVEN REMEMBER THE NAME? AT SOME POINT, IT'S JUST  EASIER TO DRINK WATER. A SECOND CAUSE COULD BE THAT SOMEBODY FINALLY HAD THE GUTS TO  SAY, "THIS LIGHT BEER TASTES LIKE DISHWATER." WHEREUPON ALL HIS OR  HER FRIENDS CHIME IN "THANK YOU, I THOUGHT IT WAS JUST ME".  REMEMBER FOLKS, LIGHT BEER IS NEITHER ONE. FINALLY, I HAVE BEEN SPEAKING TO FARM GROUPS FOR OVER TWO DECADES. ONLY RARELY IN THE BEGINNING WAS ALCOHOL SERVED. NOW  FARM ORGANIZATIONS HAVE EMBRACED WINERIES AND DISTILLERIES AS  LEGITIMATE AGRICULTURE, AND THE SOCIAL HOUR IS ALMOST ALWAYS A  FEATURE OF MEMBER MEETINGS. THIS MATTERS BECAUSE MY RULE OF  THUMB IS WHEN FARMERS LATCH ON TO A CULTURAL TREND, IT'S ABOUT  OVER. I AM NOT TALKING ABOUT THE MORAL OR HEALTH ISSUES OF ALCOHOL  CONSUMPTION, JUST WONDERING ABOUT WHAT THIS UNEXPECTED SHIFT  MIGHT MEAN. PERHAPS, THE CHANGES WE ARE SEEING IN EVERYTHING  FROM MARRIAGE RATES TO CAR OWNERSHIP AND NOW ALCOHOL  CONSUMPTION, MEANS DRAWING STRAIGHT LINES FROM PAST DATA MIGHT  NOT BE THE BEST WAY TO PLAN FOR THE FUTURE.

TEASE
THANKS, JOHN. SOME OHIO FARMERS ARE CLASSIFYING  THIS GROWING SEASON AS A NIGHTMARE. SO, JSUT HOW BAD IS IT? THAT'S AFTER THE BREAK. 

HEADLINES
WELCOME BACK TO U-S FARM REPORT. WE HAVE MUCH  MORE AHEAD.  THE DICAMBA DEBATE HEATS UP...WITH BOTH PRAISES  AND COMPLAINTS, WHAT HAPPENS NOW?  OHIO FARMERS DESCRIBING THIS YEAR AS A  NIGHTMARE. WE'LL DIG INTO IN OUR FARM OJOURNAL  REPORT. CHANGING TIDES FOR USED EQUIPMENT SALES. WE'RE  ON THE ROAD WITH MACHINERY PETE TO THE SHOW- MET STATE. AND IT'S PART 2 OF JOHN'S MANUFACTURING  AGSPALINER. 

MISSOURI DICAMBA BAN LIFTED
NOW FOR THE HEADLINES, LESS THAN A WEEK AFTER  THE MISSOURI DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE  ANNOUNCED IT WAS HALTING THE SALE AND USE OF  DICAMBA, THE BAN WAS LIFTED. BUT THERE'S NEW  RESTRICTIONS NOW IN PLACE.  AG DIRECTOR CHRIS CHINN SAYS THE ONLY PRODUCTS  APPROVED FOR USE THE REST OF THISS GROWING  SEASON INCLUDE MONSANTO, BASF AND DUPONT'S  NEW DICAMBA FORMULATIONS. THOSE PRODUCTS CAN  ONLY BE APLIED BETWEEN 9 A.M. AND 3 P.M., BUT WITH  NEW RESTRCITIONS ON WIND SPEED AND TEH  PRODUCTS CAN ONLY BE APPLIED BY LICENSED AND  CERTIFIED APPLICATORS.   TENNESSEE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE ALSO  IMPOSING NEW REGULATIONS ON DICAMBA, INCLUDING  ONLY APPLYING BETWEEN 9 AND 4 AND BY CERTIFED  APPLICATORS.  THE ISSUE OF DICAMBA DRIFT ISN'T JUST SHOWING UP  IN MISSOURI FARM FIELDS. ARKANSAS ALREAY ISSUED A 120 DAY EMERGENCY BAN, AND NOW DAMAGE FROM  DICMABA IS HEATING UP IN BOTH IOWA AND ILLINOIS.  UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS' AARON HAGER TELLING ME  THIS WEEK, FARMERS HAVE USED OLDER  FORMULATIONS OF DICAMBA FOR NEARLY 50 YEARS, SO  DAMAGE FROM DICAMBA IS NOTHING NEW. BUT SAYS THIS YEAR, IT'S A MULTITUDE OF FACTORS  CAUSING ISSUES, INCLUDING BOTH DRIFT AND  VOLATILITY OF PRODUCTS.  <THIS IS A TWO YEAR CONDITIONAL REGISTRATION. AND THE FIRST YEAR  REREGISTRATION OF THIS PRODUCT ACCORDING TO THE U S EPA THEY WILL  ONLY REREGISTER THIS PRODUCT BEFORE EXPIRATION IF THE INSTANCES  FROM OFF TARGET DAMAGE ARE NOT EXCESSIVE. O IT'S IN EVEYRBODY'S  BEST INTERSET TO USE THIS TECHNOLOGY THE BEST THEY CAN, OR IT'S VERY  LIKELY IT WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE IN TEH FUTURE > MEANWHILE, MONSANTO'S CHIEF TECHNOLOGY  OFFICER ROBB FRALEY TELLING U-S FARM REPORT  THEY'VE HAD BOOTS ON THE GROUND AND LOOKING  INTO BOTH GOOD AND BAD EXPERIENCES WITH  DICAMBA THIS YEAR. AND PLANNING IS ALREADY  UNDEREWAY FOR 2018.  <SO WE'RE LOOKING AT DRIFT AGENTS, NOZZLES AND CLEAN OUT  PROCEDURES FOR GROWERS. WE'RE GOING TO BE WORKIGN WITH STATES TO  MAKE SURE THE OFF LABEL PRODUCTS AREN'T USED AND THAT'S GOIGN TO  BE KEY, AND THEN WE'RE GOING TO WORK WITH GROWERS TO HELP THEM  BE MORE AWARE OF TEMPERATURE CONDITIOSN AND AVERSION. SO, SO  LOTS TO DO BUT I'M ABOSLUTELY CONVINVED THESE ARE GOIGN TO BE  GREAT TOOLS THAT ARE IMPORTANT TO FARMERS>

CENSKY NOMINATED AS USDA DEPUTY DIRECTOR
AFTER 21 YEARS, AMERICAN SOYBEAN ASSOCIATION,  STEPHEN CENSKY IS STEPPING DOWN. THAT'S BECAUSE  THE TRUMP ADMINSTRATION NAMED CENKSY THE  NUMBER TWO SPOT AT USDA. JUST THIS WEEK, CENSKY TAPPED AS USDA DEPUTY  DIRECTOR OF AGRICULTURE, A JOB RESPONSIBLE FOR  THE DAY-TO-DAY  THE FIRST OF SEVERAL USDA  CABINET POSITIONS STILL NOT FILLED. AG GROUPS PRESSURING AG SECRETARY SONNY  PERDUE TO FILL THOSE SEATS QUICKLY.  THE SENATE AG COMMITTEE STILL NEEDS TO CONFIRM  CENSKY'S NOMINATION. 

DROUGHT GROWING
DROUGHT JUST KEEPS GROWING IN THE NORTHERN  PLAINS. NOW 6 POINT 6 PERCENT OF THE HIGH PLAINS  IS SEEING EXTREME DROUGHT.  MOST OF THAT IS NORTH DAKOTA, WHERE NEARLY 36  PERCENT OF THE STATE IS UNDER EXTREME  CONDITIONS.  AND 22 PERCENT OF MONTANA IS SEEING EXTRME  DROUGHT.  IN IOWA, MODERATE DROUGHT DOUBLED, WITH NOW  COVERING 16 PERCENT OF THE STATE.  BUT THE CINDARELLA STORY HERE-- THE SOUHTEAST.  LOOK AT WHERE THAT REGIONS ITS NOW, COMPARED  TO THE END OF LAST YEAR. DROUGHT PRETTY MUCH  WIPED OFF THE MAP.

WEATHER
THAT'S IT FOR NEWS...METEOROLOGIST MIKE  HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH THE NATIONAL  FORECAST. THANKS. TYNE SO FAR THIS SUMMER JUST CONTINUES WITH THE SAME  OLD PATTERN. BASICALLY IT'S HOT AND HUMID WITH A RIDGE IN THE WEST.  IT COOLS DOWN EVERY FEW DAYS IN THE NORTHEAST AND THE GREAT  LAKES AND EVERYBODY ELSE KIND OF GOES BACK AND FORTH A LITTLE BIT.  SO LET'S CHECK THE JET STREAM AND SEE HOW THE TROUGH ONCE AGAIN KIND OF WEAKENS AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK SO THAT  HEAT COMES BACK TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES AND  THEN WE SEE THE RIDGE KIND OF RETREAT ONCE AGAIN TO THE WEST A  SLIGHT TROUGH DEVELOPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE GREAT  LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST AGAIN. AND AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT  WEEKEND THIS COULD BE A PRETTY GOOD SHOT OF COOL AIR AND THE  NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. BY EARLY THE FOLLOWING  WEEK WE'LL HAVE TO SEE THESE COMPUTER MODELS DO OBVIOUSLY  CHANGE FROM TIME TO TIME. HERE'S MY 30 DAY OUTLOOK FOR  TEMPERATURES AND I AM GOING BELOW NORMAL FOR FAR NORTHERN  PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND ABOVE NORMAL MID-ATLANTIC. MOST OF THE  PLAIN STATES MOST OF THE WEST WITH NEAR-NORMAL IN THE INNER  MOUNTAIN REGION. AND THAT'S BECAUSE YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE ABOVE  NORMAL RAINFALL. IT'S KIND OF THAT WET TIME OF YEAR BELOW NORMAL  UNFORTUNATELY FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS BACK INTO THE WEST ABOVE  NORMAL FOR MANY PARTS OF THE EAST. TIME.  THANKS, MIKE.

FARM JOURNAL REPORT
IT SEEMS AS IF MANY PRODUCERS THROUGHOUT THE  CORN BELT ARE DEALING WITH A TAXING CROP YEAR  - FROM DROUGHT IN THE WEST TO WATER IN THE EAST.  BUT FOR NORTHWEST OHIO GROWERS, THIS MARKS  THE THIRD CONSECUTIVE YEAR OF WEATHER  CHALLENGES. BETSY JIBBEN REPORTS. <NATS OF HIM RUNNING MACHINERY> NORTHWEST OHIO FARMERS LIKE KENT EDDY ARE IN A  RUSH-  TRYING THEIR BEST TO HELP A CROP THAT LOOKS A  MONTH BEHIND. <"IT'S BEEN ALMOST A NIGHTMARE,"> PRODUCERS IN THE AREA EXPERIENCING ANOTHER  TOUGH START TO THE GROWING SEASON.. WHERE THE  WATER WOULDN'T SHUT OFF AND PLANTING WINDOWS  WERE SMALL.  A SIGN NOW SHOWING UP IN THE ROWS.  <"THE CORN IS ALL OVER THE PLACE. IF THE CORN WASN'T REPLANTED, THE  STANDS AREN'T THERE. IF IT WAS REPLANTED, YOU AHVE CORN OF ALL  DIFFERENT HEIGHTS,"> AND THE BEANS DON'T LOOK MUCH BETTER.  <"THEY'RE BEHIND. THEY'RE SHORT. THEY'RE GOING TO NEED  A LOT OF  TIME,"> PRODUCERS LIKE EDDY REPLANTED - PATCHING UP  SOME FIELDS UP TO THREE TIMES.  <"UP TO THREE TIMES, YEAH. THAT'S NOT UNCOMMON. I'VE HEARD OF  OTHERS THE SAME WAY,"> REX WILLIAMSON IS A CROP INSURANCE AGENT IN  <"WE'VE HAD MORE REPLANT CLAIMS FILED THIS SEASON THUS FAR THAN  WE EVER HAVE IN THE HISTORY OF THE AGENCY,"> <"WE HAVE OVER 17-HUNDRED REPLANT CLAIMS FILED RIGHT NOW,"> ALTHOUGH WILLIAMSON SAYS THERE AREN'T AS MANY  PREVENT PLANT ACRES AS HE ANTICIPATED. HE  BELIEVES THE AREA HAD MORE OF THOSE CLAIMS TWO  YEARS AGO. <I HAVE PICTURES FROM 2015>  <"ACTUALLY I BELIVE WE HAVE 35 TO 40 PREVENT PLANT CLAIMS FILED AT  THIS TIME,"> <"WHILE FARMERS THROUGHOUT THE CORN BELT ARE DEALING WITH THEIR  OWN WEATHER CHALLENGES. THIS MARKS THE THIRD CONSECUTIVE TOUGH  YEAR FOR NORTHWEST OHIO FARMERS."> <"I THINK IT'S IMPORTANT TO BE HONEST AND SAY THAT THIS AREA HAS  BEEN HTI WITH SOME STRUGGLES AND CHALLENGES."> <"WE'VE HAD THREE YEARS IN A ROW OF SUB PAR YIELDS. 15 WAS  REALLY BAD AND WE LIVED OFF CROP INSURANCE. 16 WAS AVERAGE AND  17 LOOKS AS IF WE COULD HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING THE YIELDS  WHERE THEY NEED TO BE. RIGHT NOW, WE ARE PROBABLY AT BREAK  EVEN, EVEN IF WE GET A GOOD YIELD."> WHILE 2017 IS SIMILIAR TO TWO YEARS AGO WHEN THE AREA GOT DOUSED WITH RAIN.. FARMERS HOPE THE WEATHER TURNS AROUND SO A  CROP THAT'S BEHIND WILL PRODUCE. REPORTING IN VAN WERT AND PAULDING COUNTY OHIO,  I'M BETSY JIBBEN.                 EDDY SAYS HE REPLANTED ABOUT 20 PERCENT OF HIS  CORN ACRES TO SOYBEANS. HE PARKED THE PLANTER  AROUND JUNE 10. 

CUSTOMER SUPPORT
JOHN'S BACK WITH MORE ON MANUFACTURING THIS  WEEK.  I'M GOING TO TRY TO EXECUTE A DOUBLE PLAY TODAY, SO FIRST: THIS NOTE  OF CAUTION ON USING PEX TUBING. FROM DAVE FENN, IN CURTIS  WASHINGTON: "I KNOW A COUPLE PLUMBERS THAT SAY THERE IS AT LEAST ONE PROBLEM  WITH THE NEW PLASTIC - MICE LIKE IT."  THIS IS TRUE - DON'T USE WHERE VERMIN CAN GET TO IT. AND NOW BACK TO ROBERT BLAIN FROM LAST WEEK AND OUR FIXATION ON  MANUFACTURING JOBS. ONE OF THE REASONS WE CONSIDER THEM SO  WISTFULLY IS PSYCHOLOGICAL. PRODUCING PHYSICAL STUFF - A CAR, OR A  TRUCK FULL OF SOYBEANS PROVIDES IMMEDIATE AND OBVIOUS PROOF OF  YOUR HARD WORK. THIS IS NOT THE CASE WITH WHAT ARE NOW CALLED  MIND WORKERS. TAKING CARE OF PATIENTS, NEGOTIATING A CONTRACT, OR  DRIVING A BUS DOES NOT LEAVE MUCH PHYSICAL EVIDENCE OF YOUR  EFFORT. THIS SENSE OF ACCOMPLISHMENT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO OUR  SATISFACTION IN LIFE. IT IS ALSO WHY THIS SEGMENT IS BEING RECORDED  IN A WOODWORKING SHOP. MAKING TANGIBLE THINGS SCRATCHES A  DEEP-SEATED ITCH FOR MANY OF US. ODDLY TO ME ANYWAY, MANY OF THE ATTRIBUTES OF FACTORY JOBS WE  NOW LOOK BACK ON FONDLY WERE NOT VIEWED THAT WAY AT THE TIME.  THE IDEA OF AN UNVARYING 40-HOUR WEEK DOING THE SAME  REPETITIVE TASK WAS ONE FACTOR MOTIVATING MANY OF US THROUGH  COLLEGE. WHAT WE HAVE DISCOVERED SINCE IS THAT MANAGEMENT  STRATEGIES LIKE FLEXIBLE HOURS OR ON-CALL JOBS EXACT A SERIOUS  STRESS TOLL ON WORKERS. AS FEWER MANUFACTURING JOBS INVOLVE  UNIONS, MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM SECURITY OF WORK HAS EVAPORATED  AS WELL. UNIONS HAD THEIR OWN PROBLEMS BUT ADDED CONSIDERABLE  VALUE AT LEAST TO THE WORKERS THEY COVERED.  MOST OF ALL, I THINK FACTORY JOBS CONSTITUTED A LEGITIMATE CAREER  PATH FOR THOSE WITHOUT COLLEGE EDUCATION. THIS WAY OF LIFE WAS  COMMON TO MANY AROUND YOU SO IT PROVIDED A COMMUNITY OF  PEERS THAT GAVE VALIDATION OF YOUR LIFESTYLE.  I DO NOT KNOW HOW THESE CONTRIBUTIONS TO LIFE SATISFACTION WILL BE  MATCHED BY JOBS IN THE FUTURE. BUT IT IS CLEAR TO ME FROM THE  CONSUMPTION PATTERNS OF YOUNGER GENERATIONS THAT THE DEMAND  FOR PHYSICAL STUFF FROM REFRIGERATORS TO RECREATIONAL VEHICLES IS  BEING DISPLACED BY DEMAND FOR EXPERIENCES FROM VIDEO GAMES  TO FACEBOOK. JUDGING FROM THE ENORMOUS SELF-STORAGE INDUSTRY,  AMERICANS HAVE MORE STUFF THAN ROOM. MAYBE WE DON'T NEED AS  MANY PEOPLE MAKING THINGS BECAUSE WE SIMPLY HAVE PLENTY OF  THINGS ALREADY.  THANKS, JOHN.

TEASE
NEXT UP, WE'RE ON THE ROAD TO THE SHOW-ME STATE  STATE WITH MACHINERY PETE WHERE EQUIPMENT  DEALERS ARE SINGING A DIFFERENT TUNE ABOUT USED  EQUIPMENT.

ON THE ROAD WITH MACHINERY PETE
DURING MY TRAVELS WITH MACHIENRY PETE THIS PAST  YEAR, WE CONTINUE TO HEAR FROM DEALERS WHO SAY  THEY'RE USED EQUIPMENT INVENTORY IS A LITTLE  LARGER THAN THEY'D LIKE. BUT THE TIDES ARE  STARTING TO TURN, ESPECIALLY IN THE SHOW-ME  STATE.  ROW AFTER ROW, THESE LUSH GREEN FIELDS GOT OFF  TO A SHAKY START.  <NOT AS WELL AS LAST YEAR> THE WEBBERS FARM IN AUDRAIN COUNTY, MISSOURI  WHERE THE 2017 CROP WAS FIRST GREETED WITH TOO  MUCH RAIN.  <MOST FARMERS HAD A CHALLENGE WITH HEAVY RAINS THAT MADE US  REPLANT A LOT OF CORN. WE'VE SEEN YEARS WHERE WE HAD TO REPLANT  A LOT OF BEANS, BUT NOT A YEAR WE HAD TO REPLANT CORN LIKE THIS> THE WEBBERS WEREN'T ALONE.  60 MILES NORTHWEST, CURT HARVEY WAS FORCED TO  REPLANT NEARLY A THIRD OF THEIR CORN CROP THIS  YEAR. BUT SOYBEANS DIDN'T ESCAPE REPLANT EITHER.     <SOYBEANS SAME THING. TEH FIRST PLANTED LOOKS PERFECT THE  SECOND HALF IT'S ANYWEHRE FROM REALLY GOOD TO SPOTTY WHER EHTE  CLAY NOBS DRIED OUT REAL FAST> NO MATTER THE USE, EACH OPERATION OPTED TO  UPGRADE EQUIPMENT HTE PAST FEW YEARS.  <MOST EVERY YEAR WE TRY TO DO SOME UPGRADING. NOT ALWAYS NEW,  A LOT OF TIMES IT'S SLIGHTLY USED> <THE LAST 6 OR 7 YEARS WE'VE PRETTY MUCH UPGRADED ALL OF OUR  TRACTORS> <EVERYUTHING IS ILS, FRONT WHEEL ASSIST AND GPS READY> IT'S NOT ONLY HOURS, BUT TECHNOLOGY HELPING  MAKE THE DECISION TO BUY A LITTLE EASIER.  <WE'RE RUNNING NOW ON OUR PLANTING TRACTORS WE'RE WITHIN AN INCH  OF STAYING ON A LINE THROUGH SATELLITES NOW. > THE DESIRE TO BUY EQUIPMENT IS CREATING  SURPRISING MOMENTUM FOR SYDENSTRICKER, AN  EQUIPMENT DEALER WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS  MISSOURI.  <IT SEEMED LIKE WE MOVED SOME NEW PLANTERS KEPT THE SHOP  REALLY BUSY. > <THE USED PLANTER MAKRET HAS BEEN EXPECTIONALLY STRONG. NEW  PLANTER SALES WERE GREAT. WE TOOK SOME TRADE IN PLANTERS AND  MVOED ALL THOSE REALLY QUICKLY. SO PLANTING WAS REALLY GOOD THIS  YEAR. > MACHINERY PETE SAYS IT'S NOT JUST SPRAYERS-- HE'S   SURPISED AT THE STRONG PRICES HITTING THE BOOKS  FROM MID-MARCH THROUGH MAY  <AND USUSALLY WE SEE A LITTLE SOFTENING, EVEN REALLY GOOD  CONDITION STUFF THIS TIME OF YEAR, BUT HAVE NOT SEEN THAT SO FAR IN  2017. > STRONG PRICES ARE A PRODUCT OF STRONG  DEMAND...  <IF YOU CAN GET A LOWER HOURED BALER TRACTOR,T HAT'S HOT PROPERTY  TO HAVE ON THE LOT> <WE DIDN'T DO A LOT OF HAY EQUIPMENT BUSINESS LAST YEAR, AND  BUSINESS HAS BEEN SLOW THIS YEAR, BUT NOW WE'RE STARTING TO SEEL  SOME NEW BALERS, > IT'S THE STORYLINE OF USED INVENTORY THAT'S  CHANGING... WHAT ONCE FLOODED DEALER LOTS, HAS  THESE DEALERS SINGING A DIFFERENT TUNE.  <WE COULD HAVE MORE. IT'S NOT AS MUCH OF ABUYERS MARKET AS IT  WAS. THE DEMAND IS HIGH AND GETTING GOOD QUALITY TRADE IN  TRACTORS HAS BECOME A LITTLE BIT TOUGHER> <THE USED INVENTORY LEVEL OF DEALERS AROUND THE COUNTRY HAS  BEEN CHANGING. AND I TALK ABOUT ITN TERMS OF TWO CAMPS. YOU  HAVE DEALERS WITH UNFORTUNATELY TOO MUCH INVENTORY AND YOU  HAVE DEALERS SITTING TIGHT IN TERMS OF USED INVENTORY AND THE RATIO  IS CHANGING. IT' USED TO BE ABOUT 90 PERCENT HAD TOO MCUH STUFF.  NOW IT'S MOVING MORE TOWARDS 50/50> MAHCINERY PETE SAYS DESPITE THE IMPRESSIVE  STRENTH IN PRICES, IT'S STILL A GOOD TIME TO  UPGRADE.  <IF YOU'RE LOOKING TO AKE A DEAL, THE TIME IS NOW> IT'S NOT JUST LOOKING FINDING THE NEXT GREAT DEAL  THAT HAS THE ATTENTION OF HARVEY'S FATHER-IN  LAW, KENT BLADES.  IN 2022, THEIR MULTI-GENERAITONAL FARM WILL  BECOME A CENTURY FARM STATUS, SOMETHING  BLADES ALMOST DIDN'T SEE... IN 2006, BLADES WAS DRIVING AN OPEN CAB TRACTOR,  MOVING FROM ONE LOCATION TO THE NEXT... WHEN A  SEMI DRIVER NEARLY TOOK HIS LIFE...  < THE SEMI RAN OVER ME JUST AS I WAS GETTING READY TO PULL IN  WHERE MY MOTHER LIVED> IT'S THAT LIFE ALTERING MOMENT THAT PUT BLADES ON  A DIFFERENT MISSION-- TO EDUCATE OTHERS ABOUT  FARM SAFETY.  <WHEN WE GOT HOME WE PUT BEACON LIGHTS ON EVERY TRACTOR, IF IT  DIDN'T HAVE IT, WE PUT SOMETHING ON IT, WHEN THERE'S A GRAIN CART  OR A COMBINE, WE FOLLOW ALONG BEHIND THEM. > THE ACCIDENT PLACED BLADES IN THE HOSPITAL FOR  NEARLY 4 MONTHS, WITH 3 MONTHS OF REHABILATION  AFTER THAT.  IT WAS IN 2006 BLADES PASSED THE  TORCH ONTO THE NEXT GENERATION.   <WE DON'T NEED TWO BOSSES AND YOU'RE IT. > A SUDDEN MOVE THAT WASN'T EASY...  <IT WAS JUST YOU GOT TO DO WHAT YOU GOT TO DO. > BUT 11 YEARS LATER, HIS SON KYLE IS NOW THE FIFTH  GENERATION TO DIG IN THESE MISSOURI SOILS.. AND  THANKFUL HE STILL HAS HIS GRANDPA AROUND. .  <AFTER HIS ACCIDENT AND GRANDPA BEING AS STRONG AS HE WAS, I  WAS LIKE I CAN'T LEAVE THIS ALL ON MY DAD, I'VE GOT TO COME BACK  AND HELP DO SOMETHING, KIND OF BRING BACK MY TACTICS,  > FIFTH GENERATIONS STRONG, IT'S CENTURY FARMS  THAT PAINT THE COUNTRYSIDE IN MISSOURI...  THE WEBBERS ARE ALSO PROUD THEIR ROOTS RUN DEEP.  <I WOULD HAVE NEVER DREAMED THAT WE WOULD EXPANDED AS MUCH  AS WE HAVE SINCE IW AS IN HIGH SCHOOL NOR DID I EVER THINK WE  WOULD HAVE HTE EQUPMENT THAT WE HAVE TODAY> EXPANSION TO MAKE ROOM FOR THE NEXT  GENERATION... SHINING LIGHT ON THE PROMISE AND HOPE THAT THESE FARMS WILL SURVIVE TO SEE  ANOTHER DAY.  

TEASE
NEXT MONTH, MACHINERY PETE AND I ARE ON THE  ROAD, THIS TIME, OUR STOP IS IN IDAHO FALLS, IDAHO.  WHEN WE COME BACK, MACHINERY PETE REJOINS US  FOR TRACTOR TALES.

TRACTOR TALES
WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES FOLKS!  WE HAVE A FARMALL SUPER  MD-TA TO SHARE WITH YOU TODAY. THIS INTERNATIONAL HARVESTER  WAS FOUND IN A VERY INTERESTING PLACE.  OWNER EUGENE  VANDEVOORDE SHARES HIS RESTORATION STORY OF THIS CLASSIC GAS  AND DIESEL POWERED TRACTOR THIS PARTICULAR TRACTOR WAS A TRACTOR I FOUND IN TIMBER IT HAD TREES  GROWING UP THROUGH IT AND AROUND IT AND EVERYTHING I HAD TO CUT  THEM DOWN IN ORDER TO GET IT OUT. AND ONCE I GOT IT OUT OF COURSE  YOU KNOW IT NEEDED A LOT OF LOT OF TLC. LET'S PUT IT THAT WAY MORE  THAN TLC. I I COMPLETELY MAJORED THE MOTOR. I COMPLETELY  MAJORED TO SOME OF THE REAR END PUT ALL NEW TIRES ON IT PAINTED IT  AND DID WHATEVER I HAD TO DO TO GET IT SO IT WAS CONDITIONED TO  RUN AND I USED IT SEVERAL TIMES ON TRACTOR DRIVES AND OTHER THINGS  LIKE THAT AND. THAT'S JUST ONE OF THE OLD DIESEL TRACTORS THAT IH  CAME OUT WITH YEARS BACK IT STARTS ON GASOLINE AND YOU GOT TO FLIP  IT OVER INTO DIESEL. ONCE YOU GET IT WARMED UP AND I'VE DONE  PROBABLY SIX OR EIGHT OF THESE OLD DIESELS AND GOTTEN TO WHERE I  KIND OF UNDERSTAND THEM. PEOPLE COME WALKING UP TO YOU AND  SAY IS THAT THING RUNNING. I HAD ONE GUY ARGUE WITH ME SAYS  THAT'S NOT A DIESEL IT'S A GAS. THEY WERE PRETTY ECONOMICAL TRACTOR  YOU COULD GO ALL DAY LONG WITHOUT FILLING HER UP. AND ONE OF THE  EARLY DIESEL THAT WAS MADE I THINK THEY WERE PROBABLY ONE OF THE  FIRST COMPANIES THAT CAME IN WITH A DIESEL MOTOR IN A FARM  TRACTOR. I DON'T COUNT HOURS. I JUST GET UP IN THE MORNING GO TO BED  AT NIGHT. OH, I WOULD SAY PROBABLY IT TOOK ME MAYBE FOUR OR FIVE  MONTHS TO GET IT IN CONDITION. I DIDN'T FIX HIM UP TO LET SOMEBODY  ELSE ENJOY.  I WANTED MY FAMILY TO ENJOY EM. 

COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE
TODAY'S COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE GOES TO THE ZION  LUTHERN CHURCH, LOCATED IN READLYN, IOWA,  CELEBRATING ITS 100TH ANNIVERSARY THIS WEEKEND.  ORGANIZED IN 1917, YOU CAN SEE PICTURES OF HTE  ORIGINIAL CHURCH.  OUR THANKS TO BOB CASTERTON FOR SHARING THEIR  STORY.  STAY WITH US - FROM TEH FARM PHOTOS ARE NEXT. 

FROM THE FARM
WELCOME BACK, WELL, IT'S REALLY A MIXED BACK FOR  CROPS THIS YEAR.   THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF MINNESOTA HAD  SOME UNWELCOME VISITORS THIS WEEKEND.. IN THE  FORM OF HAIL. JASON SAYS SO MUCH FOR THIS YEAR'S  CROP... A PORTION OF HIS FIELDS SHREDDED FROM THE  SEVERE WEATHER THS WEEKEND. HE SAYS WHILE THIS  FIELD DOESN'T LOOK GREAT, SOME FIELDS WERE HIT  MUCH WORSE.  CHECK THIS OUT-- IF YOU'VE NEVER SEEN CHERRY  HARVEST BEFORE, HERE'S A LITTLE TASTE. MATT  DISTERHEFT {DIS-TER-HEFT} WAS KIND ENOUGH TO  CAPTURE HARVEST IN EAU CLAIRE, MICHIGAN.  IT'S  DONE MECHANICALLY BY SHAKING THE TREES,  ELIMINATING THE MONOTONOUS TASK OF HAND  HARVESTING THE CROP. HE SAYS HARVEST IN THE  SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE STATE SHOULD WRAP  UP BY THE END OF THE WEEK, AND IT'S A VERY GOOD  CROP. BUT IT'S JUST GETTING STARTED IN WEST  CENTRAL MICHIGAN AND FAMRERS SAY THEY HAD  SEVERE FREEZE DAMAGE THIS YEAR, WITH SOME EVEN  COMPARING IT TO THE DEVESTATION THEY SAW IN 2012. DESPITE USDA SAYING TENNESEE HAS ONE OF THE  BEST CORN CROPS OUT THERE THIS YEAR, MORGAN  HILL TELLS US IT'S BEEN A REALLY WET SPRING.  THANKFULLY, CORN LOOKS REALLY GOOD AND THE   SOYBEANS ARE STARTING TO TAKE OFF.

CLOSE
FROM ALL OF US AT U.S. FARM REPORT THANK YOU FOR WATCHING U-S FARM  REPORT.  BE SURE TO JOIN US RIGHT HERE AGAIN NEXT  WEEK, AS WE WORK TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION. HAVE  A GREAT WEEKEND, EVERYONE.  

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