USFR Weekly Recap - July 21-22, 2018

July 21, 2018 03:30 AM
 

TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
JULY 21-22, 2018

HEADLINES

WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M TYNE MORGAN, AND HERE'S WHAT'S IN STORE OVER THE NEXT 60  MINUTES. FARM FINANCES ARE ON SHAKY GROUND AS FARMERS  SAY TARIFF RIFTS ARE HURTING THEM.  < FARMERS AND RANCHERS ARE THE MOST PATRIOTIC PEOPLE IN THE  WORLD. GOING BANKRUPT SHOULD NOT BE A PART OF THAT DEDICATION  15." AND IT'S THOSE VOICES MAKING THEIR MESSAGE CLEAR  ON CAPITOL HILL.    IT'S ALSO THAT ISSUE EATING INTO AG BANKERS  OUTLOOKS, AS THEIR CONFIDENCE IN THE ECONOMY  PLUMETTS.  STRESS IN FARM COUNTRY IS RAISING THE FLAG ABOUT  SUICIDE RATES IN FARM COUNTRY.  <WE DON'T KNOW HOW BIG THE PROBLEM IS> IT'S A SOBERING STORY IN FARM JOURNAL REPORT.  AND IN JOHN'S WORLD  IT'S LATE JULY AND IT'S TIME TO WAIT.  

NEWS
NOW FOR THE NEWS, AS THE FEDERAL RESERVE WEIGHS THE IMPACT A TRADE WAR COULD HAVE ON  THE U-S ECONOMY, TESTIMONY ON CAPITOL HILL THIS  WEEK SUGGESTS THE FEDERAL RESERVES EXPECTED  INTEREST RATE HIKES THIS YEAR MAY NOT BE ON  AUTOPILOT. FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIRMAN JEROME POWELL IS  GIVING CONGRESS AN UPBEAT ASSESSMENT OF THE ECONOMY SAYING SOLID JOB GAINS AND STRONG  ECONOMIC GRWOTH ENABLED THE FED TO DIAL BACK  THE EXTRA BOOST IT IMPLEMENTED DURING THE  FINACNIAL CRISIS IN 2008.  POWELL SAYS THE FED EXPECTS TO KEEP RAISING  INTEREST RATES GRADUALLY, BUT DID USE THE  WORDS, QUOTE, FOR NOW". IT'S THOSE TWO WORDS THAT SOME ANALYTS SAY IS A  CAVEAT THAT SUGGEST THE FED MAY NOT BE SO  STEADFAST IN ITS ORIGINAL PLAN, AS TRADE FEARS  WEIGH ON OUTLOOKS, CREATING SOME UNKNOWNS.  THE TARIFFS' IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE GAINING MORE  NATIONAL ATTENTION THIS WEEK AS FARMERS  TESTIFIED ON CAPITOL HILL THIS WEEK, SHOWING HOW RETALIATORY TARIFFS ARE CUTTING INTO THEIR  LIVLIHOODS WHILE RAISING PRICE THEY'RE PAYING FOR  PRODUCTS LIKE GRAIN BINS.   <THERE HAVE BEEN VERY FEW ISSUES IN MY CAREER AS A FARMER THAT  HAVE CAUSED ME TO LSOE SLEEP, BUT THESE TARIFFS ARE ONE OF THEM>MICHELLE JONES, A MONTANA FARMER,  WAS ONE OF THE FARMERS WHO TESTIFIED WEDNESDAY IN FRONT  OF A HOUSE SUB-COMMITTEE WEDINESDAY,  EXPRESSING TO LAWMAKERS HOW RETALIATORY  TARIFFS BY CHINA AND OTHER TRADING PARTNER  NATIONS ARE AFFECTING THE RURAL ECONOMY. SOME TESTIMONIES TRYING TO PAINT THE PICTURE  TODAY EVEN WENT AS FAR AS SAYING THAT SOME  FARMERS WILL GO OUT OF BUSINESS ENTIRELY IF THIS  TRADE WAR CONTINUES.  <"SINCE THE END OF MAY, NEW CROP SOYBEAN FUTURES HAVE  DROPPED ABOUT 2 DOLLARS PER BUSHEL, 20 PERCENT, AND CORN HAS DROPPED ABOUT 65 CENTS PER BUSHEL. <EARLIER HTIS YEAR WE PRICED A NEW 25,000 BUSHEL GRAIN BIN TO  INCREASE OUR GRAIN STORAGE CAPACITY ON THE FARM. THE PRICE WAS  12 PERCENT HIGHER THAN AN INDETICAL BIN WE HAD BUILT IN 2017, AS WE WEIGHED OUR OPTIONS, THE BID ON BIN #2 EXPIRED AND WE  SOUGHT A SECOND BID. IN THAT TIME FRAME THE SECTION 232 TARIFFS  HAD BEEN ND OUR SECOND BID WAS 8 PERCENT HIGHER THAN THE ONE WE'D RECEIVED JUST A FEW WEKS AGO. IT AMOUNTED TO A 20 PERCEN  TINCREASE TO A BIN WE HAD BUILT JUST A YEAR BEFORE> THE PRESIDENT NOW EXPLROING AN AADTIONAL 500 BILLION DOLLARS WORTH OF TARIFFS ON CHIENSE GOODS. AND DESPITE THE PRESIDENT'S VOCAL DISTASTE FOR THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION, THE TRUMP ADMINSTRATION GOIGN TO THE WORLD GOVERNING  ORGANIZATION TO TURN UP THE HEAT ON TRADE  TROUBLES ON MONDAY, THE U.S. TRADE REPRESENATIVE'S OFFICE  ANNOUNCING DISPUTES AT THE W-T-O AGAINST CHINA,  THE EUROPEAN UNION, CANADA, MEXICO AND TURKEY. THE COMPLAINTS CHALLENGING THE RETALITORY  TARIFFS IMPLEMENTED BY EACH WTO MEMBERS IN  RESPONSE TO THE ADMINISTRATION'S ACTIONS ON  STEEL AND ALUMINUM. USTR'S ROBERT LIGHTHIZER SAYING THE STEEL AND  ALUMINUM DUTIES ARE JUSTIFIED UNDER  INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS--ADDING THAT THE  RETALIATORY DUTIES ARE COMPLETELY WITHOUT  JUSTIFICATION UNDER THOSE INTERNATIONAL RULES. MEANWHILE CHINA FILING IT'S OWN CASE AT THE WTO  IN PROTEST OF THE PRESIDENT'S PLANT TO ADD AN  ADDITIONAL 200 BILLION DOLLARS IN TARIFFS ON  CHINESE IMPORTS. CHINA SAYS THE 6-THOUSAND PRODUCT LIST IS ILLEGAL AND PROTECTIONIST. THE LIST TARGETS EVERYTHING FROM SEAFOOD AND  VEGETABLES TO STONE, METALS AND PLYWOOD. THE TARIFF ATMOSPHERE IS EATING INTO FINANCIAL OUTLOOKS, AND SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR OF AG  BANKERS IN A BIG WAY.  CREIGHTON UNIVERSITY'S RURAL MAINSTREET INDEX  SHOWING 78 PERCENT OF BANK CEOS SAY TRADE  ISSUES AND THE RISING TARIFFS ARE NEGATIVELY  IMPACTING THE RURAL ECONOMY.  AND JUST OVER 75 PERCENT OF BANKERS SAY THE  TRADE RIFTS ON HURTING GRAIN FARMERS. ' THAT ALSO CAUSED ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE AMONG  RURAL BAMNKERS TO PLUMMET.  THE OVERALL RMI DID STAY ABOVE GROWTH NEUTRAL  FOR A SIXTH STRAIGHT MONTH, THE LONGEST STRETCH  SINCE JULY 2014.  ON THE NAFTA FRONT, MEXICAN OFFICIALS SAY THE U-S  AND MEXICO AIM TO REACH A NAFTA DEAL BY LATE  AUGUST.  THAT'S AFTER PRESIDENT TRUMP SAID HE'S  CONSIDERING NEGOTATING A NEW BILATERAL NAFTA  DEAL WITH JUST MEXICO.  WALL STREET JOURNAL REPORTING THAT SENIOR U-S  AND MEXICO OFFICIALS AGREEING TO STEP UP  NEGOTIATIONS WITH A GOAL OF REACHING A DEAL YET THIS SUMMER.  THE CURRENT AND NEWLY ELECTED LEADERSHIP IN MEXICO PLEDGING TO WORK AS A UNITED FRONT TO  FINISH THE DEAL.  IS ALMOND MILK REALLY MILK? F-D-A IS NOW CHIMING  IN.   SOY AND ALMOND DRINKS THAT BILL THEMSELVES AS  "MILK" MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ALTERNATIVE  LANGUAGE. FDA COMMISSIONER SCOTT GOTTLIEB  SUGGESTED THIS WEEK HIS AGENCY MAY START  CRACKING DOWN ON USE OF THE TERM. . THE F-D-A CHIEF ADMITS HIS AGENCY HAS NOT  AGGRESSIVELY GONE AFTER THE PROLIFERATION OF  PLANT-BASED DRINKS LABELED AS "MILK."  HE S SAYS THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF FEDERAL  "STANDARDS OF IDENTITY" SPELLING OUT HOW FOODS WITH VARIOUS NAMES NEED TO BE MANUFACTURED. BUT THE STANDARDS ARE NOT ENFORCED. . BUT CHANGE WON'T HAPPEN OVERNIGHT. THE AGENCY  MUST GO THROUGH RULE-WRITING PROCESS,  INCLUDING TIME FOR PUBLIC COMMENT.  WILDFIRE IN THE WHEAT BELT OF OREGON THIS WEEK  DEVESTATED THE SOFT WHITE WHEAT CROP IN THE  STATE. THAT'S AFTER EARLY HARVEST INDICIATED A  SURPRISING, BOUNTIFUL WHEAT CROP THIS YEAR.  THE SUBSTATION FIRE IN OREGON DESTROYED MORE THAN 50 THOUSAND ACRES OF HARVEST-READY WHEAT  AND PASTURELAND. ANALYT KEVIN DULING TELLING U-S  FARM REPORT THAT AS MUCH AS 2 MILLION BUSHELS  OF WHEAT COULD BE LOST.  IT'S FARMERS AND RANCHERS WHO BATTLED THE  UNCONTROLLABLE FLAMES, WITH ONE FARMERS  LOSING HIS LIFE.  EARLY HARVEST SHOWED A WHEAT CROP PRODUCING  YIELDS AS MUCH AS 20 TO 30 BUSHELS ABOVE  AVERAGE. THAT'S AFTER A DRY SPRING THAT REDUCED  HOPES OF BOUNTIFUL WHEAT THIS YEAR. NOW FARMERS ARE ASSESSING THE DAMAGE TO NOT  ONLY WHEAT, BUT LIVESTOCK AND THEIR HOMES.  <"THE PRICE PROSPECTS FOR SOFT WHITE WHEAT ARE EXTREMELY HIGH  WITH AUSTRALIA STRUGGLING AND NOT MUCH CARRYOUT THIS LAST YEAR, SO I GUARANTEE THEY DIDN'T INSURE ENOUGH FOR WHAT THE YIELD AND THE PRICE ARE GOING TO BE. SO IT'S A ROUGH TIME> DULING SAID HE WORKED ON A HOTSHOT FIREFIGHTING  CREW IN COLLEGE, AND THIS WAS THE WORST  WILDFIRE HE'D EVEN SEEN. HE SAID IT STARTED AT 2 IN THE AFTERNOON AND WITH HIGH WINDS AND LOW  HUMIDTY, LAND OWNERS COULDN'T GET AHEAD OF THE  FLAMES.  

TEASE
THAT'S IT FOR THE NEWS. WE'LL TAKE A SHORT BREAK THIS WEEKEND. AS RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE COUNTRY, WHO WILL SEE SOME RELIEF? MIKE HOFFMAN'S FORECAST IS NEXT. PLUS, MARK GOLD AND DAN HUEBNER ARE IN THE  STUDIO TO LOOK AT DROPPING CORN CONDITION  RATINGS AND IF IT'S ENOUGH TO GIVE CORN SOME  PRICE HELP. 

WEATHER
METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH WEATHER. MIKE, THE DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS DRYNESS IS GROWING, AND I HAVE MANY VIEWERS WHO  SAY IT'S DRY IN THEIR AREA AND IT'S NOT EVEN  SHOWING UP ON THE DROUGHT MONITOR YET.   YEAH NO DOUBT ABOUT THAT TYNE. THERE ARE PLACES THAT JUST TAKE A WHILE BEFORE THE DROUGHT MONITOR ACTUALLY SHOW THE DRY  CONDITIONS. IT'S A LONG TERM SITUATION ON THE DROUGHT MONITOR AND IT DOESN'T ALWAYS CATCH REAL QUICKLY WHEN THINGS ARE TURNING DRY  BUT WILL TRY AND POINT THOSE AREAS OUT YOU CAN SEE THE DRY SPOTS  DRY AREAS FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI THAT'S BEEN DEVELOPING FOR A WHILE ALL THE WAY BACK THROUGH THE PAIN HANDELS OF TEXAS AND  OKLAHOMA INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DRY EARTH AREAS OTHER  PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TEXAS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS THE NORTHEAST AND AROUND MICHIGAN SOME OF THOSE  AREAS TURNING DRY AS WELL. BACK A MONTH AGO IT DIDN'T LOOK TOO  MUCH DIFFERENT. IT'S GOTTEN A LITTLE BIT WORSE IN A FEW OTHER AREAS BUT THE SPOTTY NESS OF THE DROUGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS  EVIDENT SOME AREAS ARE JUST FINE OTHERS ARE VERY DRY AND ALL  DEPENDS ON EXACTLY WHERE THOSE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE HIT. HERE'S  THE WAY THINGS SHAPE UP AS WE HEAD INTO THIS WEEK CUT OFF LOW  OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THAT'S GOING TO BE PRODUCING SOME DECENT  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT HEADS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO. ANOTHER  TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTH OR THE GREAT LAKES IN THE NORTHEAST BUT BOY LOOK AT THAT RIDGE OUT WEST. THIS IS GOING TO BE THE  PATTERN I THINK LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF SUMMER RIDGE IN  THE WEST TROUGH IN THE EAST. THAT MEANS THE HOTTEST PART OF  SUMMER IS PROBABLY ALREADY GONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO  THE GREAT LAKES.   NOW THAT'S WHAT I'M THINKING ANYWAY AND THAT'S THE WAY  THINGS ARE SURE LOOKING LIKE ON THE JETSTREAM AS WE HEAD THROUGH  THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. STILL A TROUGH BY NEXT WEEKEND IN THE  GREAT LAKES. SO LET'S GO DAY BY DAY AND SEE MONDAY THAT THAT SYSTEM KIND OF DIVING SOUTHWARD THAT CUT OFF LOW SHOWERS AND  THUNDERSTORMS AROUND IT OHIO TENNESSEE VALLEY ALSO NORTHEAST  A LINGERING SYSTEM HIT AND MISS ACTIVITY IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION NEXT COOL FRONT COMING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THAT MOVES INTO  THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  SCATTERED ALONG THAT HIT AND MISS AND THE SOUTHWEST AGAIN. AND THAT SYSTEM FINALLY MAKING IT INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH SOME DECENT  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE. BY FRIDAY THEN THAT SYSTEM IS  FINALLY OFF SHORE MIGHT HAVE A LOW NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO AGAIN WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOL FRONT CAUSING SOME  RAIN IN PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AS IT COOLS DOWN IN THE GREAT LAKES  AGAIN. AND A STORM SYSTEM IN WYOMING AND COLORADO CAUSING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 30 DAY OUTLOOK FOR  TEMPERATURES GOING BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS ALL THE  WAY DOWN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MOST OF IOWA NORTHERN INDIANA  NORTHWARD ABOVE NORMAL MID-ATLANTIC NORTHEAST ABOVE NORMAL  TEXAS AND MOST OF THE WEST 30 DAY OUTLOOK FOR PRECIPITATION.  NOW THIS IS ALWAYS A TOUGH CALL THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT I'M GOING  ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE GREAT LAKES OHIO TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO  THE SOUTHEAST ABOVE NORMAL FROM WYOMING ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE FOUR CORNER REGION. UNFORTUNATELY BELOW NORMAL IN TEXAS  WHERE IT'S ALREADY HOT AND DRY AT THIS POINT AND BELOW NORMAL  MUCH OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TYNE.  THANKS, MIKE.  A FEW POINTS WERE SHAVED OFF CORN CONDITION  RATINGS THIS WEEK. BUT IS IT ENOUGH TO HAVE AN  IMPACT ON PRICE.  MARK GOLD AND DAN HUEBNER JOIN ME NEXT. 

ROUNDTABLE 1
WELL WELCOME BACK TO THE ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSION THIS WEEKEND AND JUST LIKE WE'VE DONE PRETTY MUCH EVERY WEEK WE NEED TO START ABOUT TALKING ABOUT TARIFFS. I MEAN EVERY WEEK WE GET A NEW WRENCH THROWN INTO THINGS THIS WEEK. LATE ON FRIDAY WE HEARD THE PRESIDENT POSSIBLY THREATENING AN ADDITIONAL 500 BILLION DOLLARS WORTH OF TARIFFS ON CHINESE GOODS. BUT AT THIS POINT HAS THE MARKET KIND OF BECOME IMMUNE TO SOME OF THIS TARIFF TALK. CONSIDERING WHERE WE ARE WITH PRICES TODAY DAN YOU WOULD LIKE TO BELIEVE SO. I MEAN CERTAINLY THE NOT THE FIRST TIME WE'VE HEARD HIM MAKE THREATS THAT WE'RE GOING TO THROW ADDITIONAL TARIFFS ON THE CHINESE GOODS THERE. YOU KNOW IF THERE WAS NOTHING ELSE WILL THE MARKET LOOK AT THAT MIGHT HAVE A LITTLE BIGGER IMPACT BUT BOY AFTER THE THE LAST SIX WEEKS EIGHT WEEKS HERE OF DOWN DOWN TRENDING PRICES PRETTY MUCH IGNORING ALL THE OTHER FACTORS OUT THERE. I THINK IT'S GOING TO HAVE A PRETTY LIMITED EFFECT. YES IF IT DID COME ABOUT THERE COULD BE AN INITIAL REACTION. BUT I THINK IT IS GOING TO BE MUCH MORE MUTED THAN WHAT WE'VE EXPERIENCED SO FAR THIS YEAR. I MEAN YOU WOULD HOPE IT WOULD BE MORE MUTED CONSIDERING THE PRICES THAT WE'RE THAT WE'RE SEEING TODAY. BUT MARK HOW MUCH MORE PRESSURE DO YOU THINK THAT THIS MARKET CAN TAKE WE NEED TO HOLD THE LOWS THAT WE HELD THIS WEEK AND LAST WEEK WE START TAKING OUT THOSE LOWS THERE'S NO TELLING WHERE WE CAN GO WHAT THE MARKET LOOKS LIKE IT WANTS TO MAKE IT A LITTLE BIT OF A TECHNICAL BOUNCE AND HERE WE HEAR THE CORN AND WHEAT AND THE BEANS OVER THE 10 DAY MOVING AVERAGES. IF WE CAN CLOSE THERE ON FRIDAY OVER THOSE MOVING AVERAGES THAT'S A POSITIVE SIGN. I MEAN WE BROKE THE BEANS TWO DOLLARS AND 30 CENTS A BUSHEL. EVEN DURING THE RUSSIANS YOU KNOW SCARES IN AFGHANISTAN WE DIDN'T. GRANTED WE WERE A WHOLE DIFFERENT PRICE LEVEL BUT I THINK WE'VE DONE ENOUGH BASED ON THE TARIFFS. NOW I THINK WE'RE GOING TO CONCENTRATE MORE ON WEATHER THAT YOU KNOW IS THE PRESIDENT GOING TO CHANGE HIS MIND. WE'VE SEEN HIM DO THAT A FEW TIMES IN THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. HOPEFULLY THE WORST OF THE TURF IS OVER. YOU KNOW ONE THING WE COULD ADD INTO THAT AS WELL AND WITH THAT PRICE BREAK OF COURSE WE TEND TO FORGET HOW THAT SHIFTS OUR BALANCE IN THE WORLD PICTURE AND HERE WE'RE AT THE POINT NOW WHEREU.S. BEINGS AROUND 60 DOLLARS A TONNE LESS EXPENSIVE THAN BRAZILIAN BEANS. SO I MEAN WE'RE VERY COMPETITIVE IN THE WORLD MARKET RIGHT NOW WHICH COULD START SWINGING SOME OF THEM DEMAND BACK TO US BEANS NOT IN CHINA. SO AND WE SAW THAT YESTERDAY IN THE REPORT YOU HAD THE NETHERLANDS PAKISTAN MEXICO AND SEVERAL OTHER COUNTRIES COMING IN FOR BRANDS WE HAVEN'T SEEN FOR A WHILE. SO WORLDWIDE DEMAND HAS CHANGED FOR SLAVEY AND THAT GIVES US HOPE THAT OK THE BRAZILIANS ARE GOING TO GET THE CHINESE BUSINESS BUT THE REST OF THE WORLD HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE AND HOPEFULLY WILL BE THEU.S. AND THAT'S THE THING. WORLDWIDE DEMAND HASN'T CHANGED YET WHEN WE LOOK AT THE LATEST REPORT OUT OF USDA. THEY SLASHED.  SO WE'VE SEEN ITS EXPORTS AND I HEARD A LOT OF ANALYSTS SAY WHY ARE THEY SPLASHING AT THIS BIG WHEN ACTUALLY OUR YOU KNOW OUR OUR OUR SALES ARE AHEAD OF LAST YEAR. SO DOES THIS KIND OF REITERATE THE SALES THIS WEEK THAT MAYBE USDA MAY BE OFF WHEN IT COMES TO THEIR FORECASTS. WHAT OF COURSE THEY WERE TRYING TO LOOK BUILD IN WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF THAT IF THAT REALLY PLAYED OUT IN THE WORST CASE WITH CHINA REALLY MOVING AWAY FROM US. BUT BELIEVE ME I THINK IT'S A GREAT POINT. YOU KNOW THE DEMAND HAS NOT GONE AWAY AND YOU BY NO MEANS CAN BRAZIL SUPPLY MAYBE EVEN THE QUANTITIES THAT WE THINK THEY MIGHT TAKE A MARKET SHARE OF. THERE WAS EVEN TALK ABOUT ARGENTINA COMING IN AND BUYING SOME CORN AND BEANS FROM US. SO ARGENTINA WAS ON THE LIST YESTERDAY AND SAYS IT WANTS TO BE TRIM US. BUT DO YOU THINK CHINA IS JUST WAITING AND SEEING AT THIS POINT I MEAN COULD THEY COME BACK AND EVEN WITH THE TARIFFS BECAUSE WE ARE SO CHEAP COMPARED TO SOME OTHER COUNTRIES COME BACK AND BUY. YOU'RE TOO YOUNG TO REMEMBER 1970. I HAVE. I HAVE TO GO A LITTLE BIT AWAY FROM US AT VERY CHEAP PRICE. YES. YES SHOULD THE CHINESE COME IN HERE JUST LOAD THE BOAT AND THEN SAY WELL YOU KNOW WHAT. TARO SAROV AND STILL A LOT OF GRAIN FOR MUCH OF YOUR CHEAP PRICE THAT 20 25 PERCENT COMES RIGHT BACK. YES. AND IF THAT HAPPENS WHAT TYPE OF KNEE JERK REACTION WHAT WE SEE. YOU KNOW PSYCHOLOGICALLY IT WOULD HAVE TO GIVE US A NICE BOOST WOULD WE RECOUP ALL THAT WE'D LOST.  WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE WORLD SUPPLIES WE DO HAVE A VERY AMPLE SUPPLY. SO WE MEET. ALL RIGHT. WELL WHEN WE LOOK AT CONDITION RATINGS WE'VE SEEN SOME POINT SHAVED OFF. WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT THAT. SO WE'LL TAKE A BREAK AND THEN JOIN US AS WE'LL CONTINUE OUR MARKETING DISCUSSION HERE ONU.S. FARM REPORT. 

JOHN’S WORLD
IT'S TIME NOW TO CHECK IN WITH JOHN PHIPPS FOR THIS WEEK'S JOHN'S  WORLD. MANY WELL MANY MANY YEARS AGO WHEN JAN AND I WERE FIRST  MARRIED. WE WERE AT A FAMILY GATHERING OF SOME SORT IN MICHIGAN  WHERE SHE HER FAMILY IS FROM. AND I RAN INTO AN UNCLE OR A COUSIN  AND SOMEBODY I HAD NEVER MET AND WHO DIDN'T KNOW ME AT ALL  AND HE HAD TO CHECK OUT THE NEW GUY WHO JUST MARRIED INTO THE FAMILY. AND HE ASKED ME ABOUT MY WORK AND I SAID WELL I'M A  FARMER AND HE SAID OH THAT SOUNDS REALLY INTERESTING AND I KNOW  YOU HAVE TO WORK REALLY HARD AND I SAID WHAT'S TRUE IN APRIL AND MAY WE WORK TO PLANT THE CROP. AND THAT'S PRETTY HARD WORK AND  IN JUNE WE'LL KIND OF TAPER OFF AND SPRAY THE CROP AND THEN  MIDDLE OF SEPTEMBER WE'LL START HARVEST WHICH IS IS PRETTY HARD WORK AND WE FINISH UP IN NOVEMBER AND HE SAID WELL WAIT. WHAT  ARE YOU DOING NOW. I SAID WELL I'M A GRAIN FARMER. I DON'T HAVE  ANY LIVESTOCK AND IF YOU HAVE LIVESTOCK YOUR WORK IS NEVER DONE. BUT FOR ME IN THE MONTHS LATE SUMMER AND LATE WINTER I REALLY  JUST WAIT. AND THAT'S PRETTY MUCH DESCRIBES WHAT'S GOING ON RIGHT  NOW. IT'S ALWAYS INTERESTING WHEN FARMERS TALK ABOUT HOW WHAT LONG HOURS THEY WORK. THEY CONCENTRATE ON THOSE FOUR TO SIX  WEEKS IN THE SPRING FOR SIX WEEKS IN THE FALL. THEY DON'T TALK  ABOUT AUGUST AND FEBRUARY. SO THERE ARE THINGS THAT WE CAN BE DOING.  WE'RE GETTING MACHINERY READY AND WE DRIVING AROUND ALL  OVER LOOKING OUT THROUGH OUR PICKUP TRUCKS CHECKING FOR WEED  ESCAPES IN THE LAST TWO OR THREE YEARS IF IT'S BEEN A STRUGGLE TO  KEEP THE CROP CLEAN UNTIL THE FIRST OF AUGUST BLOWS OUR GENERAL  RULE OF THUMB BECAUSE OF RESISTANT WEEDS COMING UP LATE IN THE  HARVEST THIS YEAR COULD BE DIFFERENT AND THE WAITING COULD BE A LITTLE BIT SHORTER THAN NORMAL BECAUSE WE ALREADY AND THIS IS THE  15TH OF JULY HAVE REPORTS OF FULL SEASON CORN AT MY LATITUDE ON  THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STATE. THAT WAS NOT PLANTED PARTICULARLY EARLY ON ALMOST OR AT POINT WHICH IS HIDEOUSLY EARLY. SO THIS CROP COULD BE RUSHING TO MATURITY. THIS WILL MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE I  THINK FOR THE CROP TOURS AND THE CROP REPORTS WHERE THE SCOUTS ACTUALLY GO OUT IN THE FIELD BECAUSE I WOULD THINK WOULD MAKE  THEM MORE ACCURATE. AND I'M NOT SURE HOW THAT WILL WORK OUT.  BUT ONE THING IS CERTAINLY TRUE. IT REMINDED ME OF THAT ONE OF MY  FAVORITE VERSES FROM ISAIAH THEY THAT WAIT UPON THE LORD SHALL  RENEW THEIR STRENGTH. SO IF I WERE TO SEE THAT OLDER GENTLEMAN  AND TRY TO EXPLAIN WHAT I'M DOING RIGHT NOW I'D HAVE TO SAY THAT  I'M RENEWING MY STRENGTH. THANS, JOHN. NEXT UP, MACHINEY PETE HAS HTIS WEEK'S TRACTOR  TALES. 

TRACTOR TALES
WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES FOLKS! WE’VE GOT A BEAUTY FROM WEST VIRGINIA THIS WEEK.  OWNER JAMES GRAY LIKES TO SHOW OFF THIS CLASSIC D.  AND SHORTLY AFTER HE PURCHASED THIS DEERE FROM A FARM IN INDIANA, HE ADDED AN ELECTRIC START.  HE’S SAYS IT MAKES A WORLD OF DIFFERENCE NINETEEN THIRTY EIGHT JOHN DEERE D HANDS START BUT THEN IN NINETEEN THIRTY EIGHT THEY HAD AN OPTION WHERE I YOU COULD PUT ELECTRIC START ON IT AND MY BOY FOUND ELECTRIC START IN PORTLAND OREGON AND THEN WE BROUGHT UP AND PUT ELECTRIC START ON BUT I SHOWED IT FOR MANY YEARS HAND STARTING IT MUCH EASIER WITH ELECTRIC START BOUGHT IT UP IN INDIANA  I THINK IT WAS NINETEEN NINETY EIGHT IT HAD AN OLD RESTORATION ON IT  AND THEN WE FRESHENED IT UP QUITE A BIT AND NEW REBUILD THEN WE DID A LITTLE BIT OF PAINT SO ITS JUST AN OLD RESTORATION NOW WE HAVEN'T DONE ANYTHING TO IT BASICALLY FOR YEARS I JUST SHOW IT IN PARADES AND THINGS LIKE THAT I PUT A NEW MANIFOLD ON IT SO THAT I CAN PUT THE TWIN OF THE DUAL EXHAUST ON THAT 'S REALLY THE ONLY MODIFICATION AND HAS OTHER THAN AN ALTERNATOR AND I HAVE THE ORIGINAL GENERATOR BUT I WANT TO MAKE SURE THAT THE BATTERY STAYED AT A USED AN ALTERNATOR ON IT WE HAVE A BIG SHOW LAST YEAR I TOOK IT UP THE LOGAN OHIO UP TO THE WASHBOARD FESTIVAL AND WE TO GET THROUGH TOWN THERE IN IT MAKES QUITE A RACKET AND GETS GOOD ATTENTION I DON'T THINK THEY SAY THE TRACTOR THEY JUST HEAR THE NOISE OF THE OLD D 'S ARE SUCH A DIRTY VEHICLE YOU JUST CAN'T KEEP THEM CLEAN MAYBE YEAR AND A FEW YEARS WE MIGHT RESTORE IT.  MECHANICALLY IT 'S FINE IT'LL PROBABLY NEVER NEED TO BE RESTORED IN MY LIFETIME AGAIN HOPEFULLY SOMEDAY I'LL TURN IT OVER AND LET MY BOY HAVE IT BECAUSE HE REALLY LIKES IT TOO WILL TRY TO KEEP IT IN A FAMILY IF I CAN THE SOBERING REALITY OF FARMERS SUICIDES. OUR FARM JOURNAL REPORT  IS NEXT  

FARM JOURNAL REPORT
A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO, THE CENTERS FOR DISEASE CONTROL PUBLISHED A STUDY THAT SAID FARMERS HAVE HIGHEST SUICIDE RATE OF ANY PROFESSION. IT TURNS OUT--THAT'S NOT QUITE TRUE...THE AGENCY  MADE A MATHEMATICAL ERROR IN ITS CALCULATION. HOWEVER, THE NUMBERS ARE STILL HIGH AND FARMER SUICIDES SEEM TO BE ON THE RISE.  BETSY JIBBEN REPORTS.  ( THE CENTER FOR DISEASE CONTROL IS REANALYZING  AND  ITS NUMBERS ON FARMER SUICIDE RATES.  WEEKS AGO, THE CDC MADE AN ERROR AND LUMPED  FARMER SUICIDES IN A CATEGORY WITH FARMING,  FISHERIES AND FORESTRY WITH AG WORKERS AND  INCORRECTLY PUBLISHED FARMERS HAVING THE  HIGHEST SUICIDE RATES OUT OF ANY PROFESSION.    THE U.S. DAIRY INDUSTRY IS STRUGGLING PROFITS HAVE BEEN SUCKED OUT OF PRODUCER'S  OPERATIONS. <CAPACITY TO HANDLE MILK AT PROCESSING PLANTS IS LIMITED, LOW   PRICES ARE WORLD-WIDE,> PROCESSORS ARE CLOSING MILK PLANTS AND  DROPPING CONTRACTS. WHILE PRODUCTION PER COW IS IMPROVING  IN THE U.S. IT'S ALSO ONE REASON THERE'S A GLOBAL  OVERSUPPLY. <WHEN YOU LOOK AT MILK PRODUCTION, IT'S STILL AT A RECORD PACE, THAT  CONCERNS ME. > THAT'S JUST ONE OF THE FACOTRS WHY  DAIRY FARMERS ARE LEAVING THE BUSINESS. IN  WISCONSIN, DAIRY FARMERS ARE EXITING AT A RATE OF 30 PERCENT HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR. FROM JANUARY  TO JUNE, 338 FARMS STOPPED MILKING.  THE NORTHEAST IS FACING SIMILAR LOSSES.  <"TO ANSWER YOUR QUESTION, YES. WE ARE LOSING MEMBERS PRETTY  ROUTINELY. WE HAVE MEMBERS CANCELLING DUE TO ECONOMICS ON THEIR OPERATION. DO I THINK IT'S GOING TO COTINUE? YES."> BECAUSE OF THESE PROBLEMS AND OTHERS; ALL  ACROSS  FARM COUNTRY THERE'S  AN UPTICK IN FARMER SUICIDES,  NEIGHBORS, FRIENDS AND FAMILY ACKNOWLEDGING  THE TRAUMA...EVEN ONLINE.  ONE FARMER POSTING THIS WEEKS AGO - A PICTURE  AND DESCRIPTION OF WHAT'S OCCURING-  AFTER A FARMER ALLEGEDLY LED 300 COWS OUT OF  THE BARN, TORCHED THE PROPERTY AND DROVE INTO A SKID STEER.  WE TALKED WITH TWO SPECIALISTS ABOUT SUICIDE  RATES WITH FARMERS AND RURAL AMERICA. <"SUICIDE RATES ARE HIGHER IN RURAL AMERICA AND THAT WOULD  INCLUDE FARMERS AND RANCHERS AMONG THOSE FIGURES. I THINK THE RATE IS 2X TO 3X HIGHER. SOME EVEN SAY FOUR,"> QUINNETT SAYS IT'S HARD TO TALLY AN EXACT NUMBER  OF DEATHS ARE BY SUICIDE BECAUSE NOT ALL ARE EPORTED.  SOME STATES DON'T EVEN PARTICIPATE IN CERTAIN  GOVERNMENTAL PROGRAMS WHICH TRY TO NARROW  DOWN THE NUMBER. WE DON'T KNOW HOW BIG THE PROBLEM IS."> STUDIES SHOW DEPRESSION AS A MAIN CULPRIT - 95  PERCENT OF AUTOPSIES SHOWING LOW CERATONE  LEVELS WHICH REGULATES MOOD.  <"AS THESE ITEMS PILE UP, YOU LOSE YOUR ABILITY TO COPE. THE  STRESSORS ARE MORE THEN YOU JUST LOST YOUR ABILITY TO COPE AND  SUICIDE BECOMES AN OPTION."> GULBRANSON SAYS THERE'S OFTEN A FEELING OF  BURDENSOMENESS AND THE THOUGHT OF BEING  BURIED WITH LOSSES AND NOT ABLE TO CLIMB OUT  THAT LEADS TO SUICIDAL THOUGHTS.  <"ONE OF THE MAIN FACTORS IN SUICIDE IS STACKING OF LOSSES. YOU HAVE LOSS UPON LOSS UPON LOSS..."> THERE ARE SOME REASONS AS TO WHY SOME  FARMERS CHOOSE DEATH BY SUICIDE.  "ONE IS LOW DAIRY PRICES, LOW COMMODITY PRICES, OR PRESSURE TO KEEP THE FARM, YOU MIGHT LOSE THE FARM IF IT'S BEING FORECLOSED  ON."> ANOTHER REASON IS GENDER   <"MALES HAVE VERY HIGH SUICIDE RATES, THE HIGHEST RATES OF ALL  AGE AGE GROUPS."> MEN ALSO WANT TO KEEP AND HOLD UP AN IMAGE. AND  WHEN THEY SEEK HELP, THEY TEND TO LOOK ONLINE.  <"A FARMER IS VERY RELUCTANT TO GET HELP. THEY'RE TAUGHT TO BE STRONG, SELF-RELIENT, THEY THINK IT'S A SIGN OF WEAKNESS TO GET HELP  WHEN IT'S A SIGN OF STRENGTH... > <"MEN DON'T ASK FOR HELP BUT THEY WILL ACCEPT HELP IF IT'S  OFFERED,"> WHERE A FARMER LIVES IS A REASON AS WELL.  OFTENTIMES, THERE ISN'T MUCH HELP AVAILABILE IN  RURAL COMMUNITIES.    <"RURAL COMMUNITITES HAVE HIGHER SUICIDE RATES IN GENERAL  BECAUSE IT IS MORE DIFFICULT TO GET HELP,"> THERE ARE SOME OTHER REASONS WHY FARMERS DIE  BY SUICIDE. QUINETT SAYS MOST PEOPLE WHO CHOOSE DEATH BY  SUICIDE USE A LETHAL WEAPON LIKE A GUN.  <I AM A GUN OWNER, I HAVE HUNTED SMALL AND LARGE GAME.  HOWEVER, THE GUNS NEED TO BE IN A TEMPORARY OFFSITE STORAGE.  49  THEY HAVE TO BE REMOVED SO THE TEMPTATION IS NOT THERE.">  <"YOU'RE NOT GETTING THE GUN OUT OF THE HOUSE PERMANENTLY, JUST  UNTIL THE CRISIS PASSES,">  ME: WHAT ARE SOME MISCONCEPTIONS ABOUT SUICIDE?">    <"11:59:19 ONE MISCONCEPTIONIS IF WE TALK ABOUT IT, WE WILL  CAUSE IT TO HAPPEN. 23"> <"SAY I'M TALKING WITH SOMEONE WHO IS SUICIDAL. I JUST SOLVED THEIR  VERY FIRST PROBLEM: FINDING SOMEONE TO TALK TO."> <"ME: WHAT ARE SOME SIGNS SOME LOVED ONES CAN WATCH FOR IF  THEY THINK SOMEONE THEY KNOW MAY COMMIT SUICIDE?"> <"THERE'S A DIRECT VERBAL NEWS AND THERE'S ALSO BEHAVIORAL CLUES.  A VERBAL CLUE FOR A FARMER MAY BE THAT HE'S TALKING TO A BANKER  AND HE SAYS IF YOU CLOSE ON ME, YOU'LL READ MY OBIT NEXT WEEK.  OR THE FARMER COULD SAY TO A FRIEND," IF I PASS AWAY, WILL YOU TAKE  CARE OF MY WINCHESTER 12 GAUGE? OR SAYING TO HIS WIFE, I SHOUDL  JUST SHOOT MYSELF AND LET THE BANK TAKE THIS PLACE,"> <"IF IT'S AN IMMEDIATE DANGER, YOU WANT TO GET THEM TO THE ER."> AS PROFITS CONTINUE TO SINK SPECIALISTS STAND BY IN PERSON AND ENCOURAGING FARMERS TO REACH OUT AND EVEN GET HELP ONLINE  SO PROBLEMS DON'T ACCELERATE.  <"I WANT TO ENCOURAGE PEOPLE GETTIN GHELP IS A SIGN OF STRENGTH  AND TO NOT SUFFER ALONE. THERE ARE PEOPLE WHO CARE AND WILL HELP  YOU,"> REPORTING FOR U.S. FARM REPORT, I'M BETSY JIBBEN.  IF YOU'RE CONSIDERING TAKING YOUR OWN LIFE, WE WANT TO REMIND PEOPLE THERE IS HELP. THE SUICIDE PREVENTION HOTLINE IS ON THE SCREEN  BELOW... IT PROVIDES EMOTIONAL SUPPORT IN  EMOTIONAL DISTRESS 24 HOURS A DAY. 

ROUNDTABLE 2
WELCOME BACK TO US FARM REPORT HERE TALKING ABOUT THE MARKET THE REAL QUICK BEFORE WE TALK A LITTLE BIT MORE ABOUT TRADE. LET'S LOOK AT FRIDAY'S PRICE ACTION. DID IT GIVE ANY POSITIVE SIGNS. TECHNICALLY THE WAY WE CLOSE YOU ABSOLUTELY. WHO IS GOOD POSITIVE CLOSE CORNER BETWEEN ALL THE WAY ACROSS IT AND THIS IS OF COURSE A COUPLE OF DAYS IN A ROW THAT WE'RE WE'RE TURNING AROUND A LOT OF TECHNICAL INDICATORS ARE BEGINNING TO GET A CROSSOVER AND TURN BACK HIGHER AND OF COURSE IT'S A SITUATION WE'RE SITTING WITH AN EXTREME OVERSOLD SITUATION WHERE THE BEARS ARE LEANING VERY HEAVILY TO THE SHORT SIDE. SO GOOD. GOOD MOVE AND WE DIDN'T CLOSE UP AND JUST WHEN IT WAS CORN BEANS. WE ALL THREE OF THEM HAD A GOOD CLOSE OVER THE 10 DAY MOVING AVERAGE SECOND DAY IN A ROW WHICH WE HAVEN'T SEEN FOR QUITE SOME TIME. AND WE DID IT ON SOME BAD NEWS THE DOLLAR WAS STRONGER. WE HAD THE ANNOUNCEMENT THIS MORNING THE PRESIDENT WAS TALKING ABOUT EVEN BIGGER TARIFFS. SO TO DO THIS TWO DAYS IN A ROW WITH THIS BAD NEWS I THINK IT'S A POSITIVE SIGN. NATTO MORE NEWS ON THAT THIS WEEK THE PRESIDENT POSSIBLY LOOKING AT A BILATERAL DEAL WITH MEXICO SUPPOSEDLY MEXICAN OFFICIALS THINKING THE SAME IF WE COULD GET A BILATERAL DEAL WITH MEXICO WHAT TYPE OF LIFE WOULD THAT BRING TO COMMODITIES LIKE CORN AND EVEN PORK PORK IS PROBABLY EVEN A BIGGER BENEFICIARY OF THAT BECAUSE I MEAN THE PORK MARKET IN MEXICO IS 9 PERCENT OF OUR EXPORT BUSINESS IN THE PORK MARKET.  AND WE TALK ABOUT CHINA AND THIS BUT I THE 2 PERCENT THEY DO TAKE A LOT OF KEY AWFUL ELEMENTS THAT NOBODY ELSE REALLY WANTS. BUT BUT I THINK IT WOULD REALLY GIVE THE PORK THAT STABILIZATION IT NEEDS. BUT CHINA IS ONE OF OUR MAJOR MAJOR CUSTOMERS IN ANY KIND OF RELIEF OR KNOWLEDGE THAT THEY'RE NOT GOING TO GO TO SOUTH AMERICA FOR NEEDS IS GOING TO BE I THINK A REAL BOOST FOR THE MARKET AND THE PORK MARKET NEEDS SOME GOOD NEWS RIGHT NOW WHEN YOU GET TO SUMMER BOGS DOWN IN THE MID 40S YOU NEED SOMETHING TO HELP THIS MARKET. SO I AGREE A NAFTA AGREEMENT ISN'T GOING TO HAPPEN AS NAFTA AGREEMENT. BUT I THINK WE'RE GOING TO GET ONE DONE WITH MEXICO AND THEN I THINK WE'LL TURN OUR ATTENTION TO CANADA AND HOPEFULLY THAT PUTS A LITTLE PRESSURE ON CHINA TO COME TO THE TABLE AS WELL. AND YOU DO THINK THAT WOULD HELP CORN. OH ABSOLUTELY. NO QUESTION ABOUT IT. IT'S A STRONG MARKET AND ANY POSITIVE NEWS AS WE'RE COMING OUT OF THIS WILL CERTAINLY GIVE THE MARKET ANOTHER PUSH. OK SO AS WE SHIFT OUR FOCUS FROM DEMAND TO SUPPLY. LOOKING AT THE LATEST CONDITION RATINGS THE USDA SAYS CORN CONDITION READING DROPPED 3 POINTS LAST WEEK 72 PERCENT CALLED GOOD TO EXCELLENT WHICH WORKS IMPRESSIVE TO WATCH THE SILKEN CATEGORY. SIXTY THREE PERCENT IN THAT STAGE 26 POINTS AHEAD OF LAST WEEK SO WE LOOK AT HOW QUICKLY THIS CORN CROP IS MATURING. BUT AT THE SAME TIME WE SAW THOSE POINTS AND SHAVED OFF OF THAT NATIONAL AVERAGE DOES THE TRADE REALLY WATCH CONDITION RATINGS AT THIS POINT. WELL THEY CERTAINLY CONTINUE TO WATCH RATINGS IS REALLY NO OTHER WAY TO KIND OF GAUGE WHAT'S GOING ON IN THE FIELDS. BUT I THINK THE KEY POINT HERE IS THAT ADVANCED DEVELOPMENT OF THE CROPS I MEAN THAT PARTIALLY EXPLAINS WHY WE'RE SEEING THE DETERIORATION. PLANTS NEED MORE WATER AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE'RE NOT NECESSARILY GETTING THAT KIND OF WATER SO WE NORMALLY SEE THE BREEDING START TO BEGIN TO SLIP. BUT BUT THAT SAID IF IT CONTINUED FOR SUCCESSIVE WEEKS AND WE BACK THAT UP WITH MAYBE SOME NEWS ON THE COUNTRY THAT WE HAVE WE'RE SEEING SOME TOUGH LOOKING CROPS. IT COULD PREVENT A LITTLE MORE BOOST THAN IT HAS ALREADY. OK. WHAT DO YOU THINK IS PRICED IN AT THIS POINT. I THINK WE'RE LOOKING AROUND 176 I THINK IS REASONABLE. I THINK IT'S A LITTLE BIT TOO EARLY TO BE MOVING UP PARTICULARLY WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS WE'RE SEEING OUT THERE. BUT I AGREE IF WE CAN GET IT HOT AND TRY AND KEEP IT THERE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS AND THE AUGUST WEATHER LOOKS TO BE HOT AND DRY ON THAT 30 DAY OUTLOOKS. NOW I KNOW YOU HAVE SOME INPUT IN THE CORN THAT'S FRIENDLY BUT IT'LL TAKE THE BEANS WITH IT TOO RIGHT. BECAUSE SOYBEANS USDA SAYS YOU LOOK AT THAT. SIXTY NINE PERCENT IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT DOWN TWO POINTS FROM LAST WEEK AS WE HEAD INTO AUGUST. YOU KNOW IT'S LIKE WE REALLY MISSED THAT JULY WEATHER SCARE IN CORN. DO YOU THINK MAYBE WE COULD HAVE ONE IN SOYBEANS.  I MEAN I KNOW THE JURY'S STILL OUT ON THAT BUT IF WE DO SEE THIS HOT DRYNESS HIT IN AUGUST CERTAINLY I THINK A LOT OF PEOPLE EQUATE BEING YIELD'S WITH THE AUGUST WEATHER AND IF WE DO TURN WITH SOME ADVERSE WEATHER IN AUGUST HERE I WOULD IT WOULD IT WOULD HAVE I BELIEVE PROVIDE SOME KIND OF AN INCENTIVE TO AT LEAST COVER THE SHORTS BUT PROBABLY BRING A FEW BUYERS IN AND END USERS THAT ARE GOING TO NEED BEANS OR MEAL A MEAL AS IT LOOKS LIKE KIND OF A BARGAIN OUT THERE FOR A LOT OF END USERS AT THIS POINT. DO YOU THINK A REALLY SOLID SOYBEAN CROP IS PRICED IN THOUGH AT THIS POINT IN THE MARKET OR DOES IT MATTER BECAUSE OF ALL THE TARIFFS WERE KIND OF IN UNCHARTED WATERS RIGHT NOW. I THINK REALLY FOR THE LAST SIX WEEKS MAYBE WEEKS NOW WE'VE WE ALMOST IGNORED MANY OF THE OTHER FACTORS OUT THERE. I MEAN THE PREVALENT THING ON EVERYONE'S MIND HAS BEEN THE TARIFFS AND WHAT THE HOW THE WORST CASE SCENARIO THAT'S GOING TO IMPACT US. SO IT'S WITH THAT BEHIND US OR HOPEFULLY BEHIND US THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE EMPHASIS ON WHAT THAT POTENTIAL IS AT THIS POINT IN TIME TO MOVE IT FROM A COUPLE OF THOSE CROPS LOOKING AT WHEAT. LOOKING AT SOME OF THE SUPPLY ISSUES THAT WE'RE POSSIBLY SEEING IN AUSTRALIA DID THAT PROVIDE SOME FUEL TO THE WHEAT MARKET THIS WEEK MARK. NO QUESTION THAT CAME OUT THIS MORNING. AND THESE WHICH CHARTS FROM AUSTRALIA SHOWING A BIG JUMP IN PRICE. THEIR MARKET'S BEEN ON FIRE. SO THAT'S GOING TO HELP US. AND I THINK FOR CORN AND BEANS EXCUSE ME THE OTHER THING THAT I THINK IS FRIENDLY IS THE FUNDS ARE STILL SHORT. OVER 100000 QUAR ALMOST 70 80 THO USAND BEANS OVER 100000 BEAN OIL.  SO THEY GET THE IMPETUS TO COVER IN HERE. THAT IN ITSELF COULD COULD COULD PROVIDE A DECENT RALLY. WELL SPEAKING OF THIS RALLY AND WHEAT DO YOU THINK THERE'S MORE ROOM. ARE THERE MORE ISSUES AROUND THE GLOBE THAT COULD HELP WHEAT PRICES. YES I WOULD LIKE TO THINK SO. THEU.N. AGAIN WE SEEM TO BE CHIPPING AWAY ON A GLOBAL BASIS WHERE THE WHEAT NUMBERS ARE. AND I THINK WE'VE WE'VE KIND OF ASSUMED THAT THOSE WHEAT. WE HAVE AMPLE SUPPLY. YOU KNOW WHY WOULD WE EVER REILEY WE JUST USE KIND OF RESIDUAL CRAP OUT THERE. BUT BUT I THINK THE MORE YOU TAKE AWAY AND THEN ULTIMATELY PEOPLE ARE GOING TO WAKE UP AND TAKE NOTICE THAT YOUR SUPPLIES ARE SHRINKING NOT GOING THE OTHER WAY AROUND THIS POINT. ALL RIGHT. THANK YOU BOTH FOR BEING HERE THIS WEEK AND WE APPRECIATE IT. STAY WITH US. MOREU.S. FARM REPORT WHEN WE COME BACK. 

HEALTHY SOIL
WHEN WE THINK OF CLIMATE CHANGE SOLUTIONS, WHAT TYPICALLY COMES TO MIND IS THE TRANSPORTATION WE USE, THE LIGHTS IN OUR HOME,  THE BUILDINGS WE POWER AND THE FOOD WE EAT.  RARELY DO WE THINK ABOUT THE GROUND BENEATH  OUR FEET. IN THIS REPORT PROVIDED BY U-C DAVIS, ONE  PRODUCERS THINKS A LOT ABOUT THE GROUND AND IS DIGGING INTO THE SCIENCE OF HOW HEALTHY SOILS  CAN STORE CARBON IN THE GROUND.  I LOVE THIS. THIS IS MY FAVORITE. I COULD LITERALLY SIT OUT HERE AND  WATCH THEM EAT LIKE FOR HOURS THEIR FAVORITE BECAUSE OF HOW YOU  MANAGE THEM AND HOW THEY IMPACT THE LAND. AND THEY'RE NOT  QUITE AS HARD ON AS PIGS ARE AND THE CHICKENS ARE PIGS. HERE'S  WHERE WE JUST MOVED FROM WHEN I WENT OVER THERE TO WHERE THE  SHEEP ARE AND THEN OVER THERE AS WE'RE ABOUT TO GO. WE STARTED  OUT OVER HERE. SO IT'S ALREADY COME BACK. WE COULD EAT ONE MORE FINISHED. WE COULD EVEN COME BACK AGAIN AND GRACE  ANOTHER TIME THROUGH WITH THE SHEEP WHEN WE MOVE THEM  AROUND THERE IN KIND OF A SMALL AREA. THEY'RE EATING DOWN ALL THE  GRASS. WE TAKE THEM OFF OF THAT AREA AND MOVE THEM TO THE NEXT  AREA. AND THOSE PLANTS REGENERATE. AND SO THOSE NUTRIENTS THAT CAME FROM THE ANIMAL ARE WERE READILY AVAILABLE NOT ONLY FROM  PLANTS BUT ALSO FOR ALL THE SOIL MICROBES AND SO THAT JUST KIND OF  CREATES MORE ACTIVITY. AND IN THEORY MORE CARBON SEQUESTRATION.  SCOW LIKENS SOIL TO THE HUMAN BODY WITH ITS OWN  SYSTEM OF "ORGANS" WORKING TOGETHER FOR ITS  OVERALL HEALTH. AND, LIKE US, IT NEEDS GOOD FOOD,  WATER AND CARE TO LIVE UP TO ITS FULL POTENTIAL. 

TEASE
UP NEXT, MORE TARIFF TALK AS WE CHECK BACK IN WITH JOHN PHIPPS.  

CUSTOMER SUPPORT
WELCOME BACK. EACH WEEK WE TALK ABOUT THE TARIFFS AND THE IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE. BUT DOES  CROP INSURANCE PLAY A ROLE IN ANY OF THIS ?  HERE'S JOHN PHIPPS.  LONG-TIME VIEWER LEO LEGORETTA ASKS A QUESTIONS MANY FARMERS  ARE ASKING: "CAN YOU SHED ANY CLARITY WITH A LAY PERSON LIKE ME ON HOW THE  SOY SUBSIDIES (CROP INSURANCE) PROTECT (IF AT ALL) SOY FARMERS FROM  THE EMERGING TRADE WAR?" LEO, THERE ARE REALLY TWO SEPARATE QUESTIONS HERE. FIRST IS TO  WHAT EXTENT ARE COMMODITY PRICES REFLECTING THE TARIFFS? AG  ECONOMISTS ARE STRUGGLING TO COME UP WITH ESTIMATES, BUT IT IS EXTREMELY HARD TO CALCULATE EXACTLY. I'LL TALK ABOUT THIS AFTER MORE  RESEARCH HAS BEEN FINISHED. THE PART ABOUT CROP INSURANCE PAYMENTS IS A LITTLE MORE  STRAIGHTFORWARD, BUT ONLY AS ACCURATE AS YOUR PREDICTIONS OF YIELD  AND PRICE AT HARVEST. ONE QUICK RESPONSE CAME FROM KEITH COBLE, AT MISSISSIPPI STATE. HIS ESTIMATE WAS LOSSES WERE NOT  ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A PAYMENT, JUST LIKE A MINOR CAR ACCIDENT  WHICH CAUSES LESS DAMAGE THAN YOUR DEDUCTIBLE. GARY SCHNITKEY AT ILLINOIS CRANKED OUT A MORE THOROUGH EXPLANATION OF  THE SAME RESULT. YOU CAN FIND IT ON FARMDOCDAILY. EVEN MORE HELPFUL IS TO USE ONE OF THE PAYMENT ESTIMATORS  AVAILABLE FROM BANKS AND INSURANCE PROVIDERS. THIS ONE IS FROM  FARM CREDIT SERVICES OF AMERICA. USING THEIR EXAMPLE NUMBERS  AND AVERAGE YIELDS, I PLUGGED IN THE PRICE ON MONDAY THIS WEEK  FOR CORN - $3.53. IT SHOWED NO PAYMENT. DOING THE SAME FOR  SOYBEANS, I PLUGGED IN $8.31 FOR FALL BEANS AND WITH YIELDS EQUAL TO YOUR ACTUAL PRODUCTION HISTORY - APH - THERE WAS A SMALL  PAYMENT OF ABOUT $15. BUT THERE ARE TWO CATCHES TO THESE ESTIMATES. FIRST, IT LOOKS LIKE  MOST OF US HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF ABOVE AVERAGE YIELDS, AND  MANY FARMERS' APH LAGS THE STEADY RISE IN YIELDS. A LOWER APH MEANS THE GUARANTEED PRICE IS LOWER, SO THE ODDS OF HIGHER THAN  APH YIELDS IS CONSIDERABLE. THE OTHER COMPLICATION IS THE GROSS  REVENUE OF THE CROP IS THE ACTUAL YIELD MULTIPLIED BY THE FUTURES  PRICE, NOT YOUR LOCAL CASH PRICE. SINCE THE PRICE YOU GET FROM THE  BUYER IS ALMOST ALWAYS LOWER THAN FUTURES - A NEGATIVE BASIS - YOUR INCOME WILL BE LESS THAN CROP INSURANCE CREDITS YOU FOR. AS  YOU CAN SEE THERE ARE MULTIPLE FACTORS AND IT'S ILLUMINATING TO  GOOGLE ONE OF THESE ESTIMATORS TO RUN SOME NUMBERS YOURSELF. BUT THE SHORT ANSWER IS CROP PRICES WOULD HAVE TO DROP  SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER TO TRIGGER SIZABLE CROP INSURANCE PAYMENTS THANKS, JOHN. FOR QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS EMAIL JOHN AT  MAILBAG AT U-S FARM REPORT DOT COM.

TEASE
WHEN WE COME BACK, IT'S A MIXED BACK FOR CROPS THIS YEAR. WE HAVE PHOTOS TO SHARE NEXT. 

FROM THE FARM
WELCOME BACK. WELL MIKE IT'S REALLY BEEN A MIXED BAG FOR CROP CONDITIONS THIS YEAR BARLEYS BURNING UP IN IDAHO. CHECK THIS OUT. THEY HAD A FROST MID JUNE AND FOLLOWED BY FIVE WEEKS OF HEAT NO RAIN. THEN MIKE THAT REALLY TOOK A TOLL ON THE CROP. BUT THEY TELL US THAT THE SHALLOW GROUND IS REALLY UNSALVAGEABLE AT THIS POINT. THEY JUST DIDN'T GET THOSE TIMELY RAISE THAT THEY NEEDED IN JUNE AND JULY. AND THAT'S ALWAYS NECESSARY. IT'S BEEN THE OPPOSITE FOR SOME AREAS OF MINNESOTA THIS YEAR. BUT THE MINKES TELL US SAVE ESCAPE THE EXCESSIVE RAIN THIS YEAR IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. HE SAYS THE CROP LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AROUND HIM FOR BOTH CORN AND SOYBEANS. WHAT A PRETTY PICTURE. WELL SWITCHING BACK TO TWO DRY ATLANTA SAYS HIS AREAS ALMOST WORSE THAN WHAT THEY SAW IN 2012. MIKE IT'S ACTUALLY DRIER TODAY. THEY TOLD US THAT THE CORN IS SHOWING THE STRESS WITH MAJOR TIP BACK IN THE EARS AS YOU CAN SEE FROM THAT PICTURE. I'M GLAD IT'S NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS 2012 THOUGH OUR FRIEND KEVIN DOOLING HELPING FRIENDS BATTLE BLAZES THIS WEEK IN OREGON. HE SAYS THIS IS A COMMON SCENE ACROSS THAT REGION MILES AND MILES OF WHEAT LOST DUE TO WILDFIRES GETTING OUT OF CONTROL. THAT'S IN ADDITION TO DESTROYING STRUCTURES AND EQUIPMENT IN ITS PATH. WHAT A HORRIBLE WILDFIRE THERE. WELL MIKE IT'S BEEN QUIET IN OUR HOUSE THIS WEEK. THE GIRLS ARE SPENDING THE WEEK WITH THEIR GRANDPARENTS IN TEXAS. NOW SOME OF MY FAVORITE MEMORIES MIKE WHEN I WAS A CHILD VISITING MY GRANDPARENTS FARM IN MISSOURI AND I'M GRATEFUL THE GIRLS ARE SOAKING UP THE FUN THIS WEEK WHILE LIVING LIFE ON THE RANCH. THEY'VE COLLECTED EGGS EVERY MORNING AND A PAIR OF MY OLDEST. SHE CAN BE KIND OF BOSSY RIGHT LIKE HER DAD. WELL MOM OK. SHE THINKS SHE CAN BOSS THIS TEXAS LONGHORN AROUND THIS IS HER TELLING THIS MOMMA TO GO FIND HER BABIES. AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAMA IS LOOKING AT HER LIKE YOU ARE CRAZY. WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT. YES BUT I MEAN DID YOU DID YOU SPEND TIME ON THE FARM OR THE RANCH. GROWING UP YEAH WE WE WEREN'T ON A FARM. LIVING IN OUR HOUSE BUT WHENEVER WE WENT TO GRANDPA'S HOUSE WE'D BE DRIVING DOWN THE ROAD WITH SMALL HOG PIGS AND WE'D THINK OH WE'RE GETTING CLOSE. YOU KNOW IT'S JUST ONE OF THOSE MEMORIES AND WHEN YOU HEAR THE LITTLE FEED TROUGH SQUEAKING AND YEAH AND EVERY TIME YOU HEAR THAT YOU THINK OF YOUR GIRL. OH ABSOLUTELY. WELL IF YOU HAVE A PICTURE OR A VIDEO YOU WOULD LIKE TO SEND THEM. YOU CAN DO THAT TO THE ADDRESS ON THE SCREEN.

CLOSE
AND FOR ALL OF US ATU.S. FARM REPORT ON MIKE HOFFMAN AND ONTIME MORGAN. THANK YOU FOR WATCHING. BE SURE TO JOIN US AGAIN RIGHT HERE NEXT WEEK AS WE'VE WORKED TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND EVERYONE. 

Back to news


Comments

 
Spell Check

No comments have been posted to this News Article

Corn College TV Education Series

2014_Team_Shot_with_Logo

Get nearly 8 hours of educational video with Farm Journal's top agronomists. Produced in the field and neatly organized by topic, from spring prep to post-harvest. Order now!

Markets

Market Data provided by QTInfo.com
Brought to you by Beyer
Close