USFR Weekly Recap - July 28-29, 2018

July 28, 2018 03:30 AM
 

TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
JULY 28-29, 2018

HEADLINES

WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M TYNE MORGAN, AND HERE'S WHAT WE'RE WORKING ON FOR YOU. THE PRESIDENT ISN'T BACKING DOWN FROM TEH TRADE  WAR WITH CHINA.  <UNFORTUNATELY RIGHT NOW AGRICULTURE IS THE SACRIFICIAL PAWN> AND NOW THE ADMINSTRATION IS ROLLING OUT A 12  BILLION DOLLAR PACKAGE TO HELP.  <IT'S A BANDAID. I DON'T THINK IT'S A LONGTERM FIX> IT'S A CEASE-FIRE WITH TRADE TENSIONS BETWEEN  THE U-S AND E-U. < SOYBEANS IS A BIG DEAL AND THE EURIOPSEAN UNION IS GOING TO START ALMOST IMMEIATELY TO BUY A LTO OF SOYBEASN> AS COLORADO'S CROPS STURGGLE TO FIND ENOUGH  MOISTURE THIS YEAR.. "WE'RE PROBABLY 8 TO 10 INCHES BEHIND AND  WE DON'T GET MUCH MOISTURE ANYWAY." > LOCAL EQUIPMENT DEALERS SAY  MORE FARMERS ARE  COMING TO THE TABLE TO BUY. AND IN JOHN'S WORLD. 

NEWS
NOW FOR THE NEWS, THE TRUMP ADMINSTRATION ROLLING OUT A MASSIVE TARIFF AID PACKAGE FOR  FARMERS. TO THE TUNE OF 12 BILLION DOLLARS, IT'S A  RELIEF THAT'S WELCOMED BY THE DAIRY INDUSTRY AS OTHER FARM GROUPS SAY THEY WANT TRADE, NOT AID.  THE AID TO FARMERS WILL COME IN THE FORM OF A  DIRECT ASSISTANCE PROGRAM, AS WELL AS MONEY TO  HELP WITH FOOD PRUCHASES AND FUNDING FOR  PROMOTING TRADE. THE FARMER PAYMENTS WON'T HAPPEN UNTIL HARVEST  OCCURS FOR ROW CROPS AND FOR LIVESTOCK AND  DAIRY PRODUCERS, THOSE PAYMENTS WILL POSSIBLY  START IN SEPTEMBER. SINCE THE PROGRAM PULLS FROM CURRENT FUNDING  AND DOESN'T AUTHORIZE NEW MONEY, IT DOESN'T NEED CONGRESS' APPROVAL.    THE NATIONAL MILK PRODUCERS FEDERATION WELCOMING THE ASSISTANCE, AS THE GROUP ESTIMATES TARIFFS WILL COST U-S DAIRY FARMERS 1  POINT 8 BILLION DOLLARS THROUGH THE END OF 2018.  POSITIVE NEWS PUSHED THROUGH THE MARKETS  LATER THIS WEEK, AS THE PRESIDENT ANNOUNCED A  TRADE AGREEMENT FRAMEWORK WITH THE E-U.  TRUMP SAYING THIS MEANS THE U-S AND EU WILL WORK  TOWARD ZERO TARRIFS, ZERO NON TARIFF BARRIERS  AND ZERO SUBISIDES ON NON-AUTO INDUSTRIAL  GOODS <WE WILL ALSO WORK TO REDUCE BARRIERS AND INCREASE TRADE IN  SERVICES, CHEMICALS, PHARMACUTICALS, MEDICAL PRODUCTS, AS WELL  AS SOYBEANS, SOYBEANS IS A BIG DEAL AND THE EURIOPSEAN UNION IS GOING TO START ALMOST IMMEIATELY TO BUY A LTO OF SOYBEASN  TEHY'RE A TREMENDOUS MARKET. BUY A LOT OF SOYEBASN FROM OUR  FARMERS><WHEN I WAS INVITED TO THE WHITE HOUS,E I HAD ONE INTENTION, I  HAD THE INTENTION T MAKE A DEAL TODAY, AND WE MADE A DEAL> JUNCKER SAYS HIS MAIN GOAL WAS TO BRING TARIFFS  ON INDUSTRIAL GOODS TO ZERO.  NOW THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW MUCH WILL  EUROPE BUY? THE ANNOUNCLEMENT WAS ABSENT OF  DETAILS AND FIRM COMMITTMENTS. FARM JOURNAL WASHINGTON CORRESPONDANT JIM  WIESEMEYER POINTS OUT EXPORTS TO EUROPE WON'T DISPLACE LOST EXPORTS TO CHINA, BUT A TRADE DEAL  WITH THE E-U WOULD BENEFIT MORE THAN JSUT  AGRICULTURE.  <OH I THINK ALL THE WESTERN WORLD DOES BECAUSE NOW WE'RE AT  LEAST ON THE PATH OF POSTIIVE NEWS AND SOLUTAIONS RATHER THAN TARIFFS, COUNTERMEASURES ETC AND TO BE BLUNT, IN THIS CASE, IT'S  SHOWIGN PRESIDENT TRUMP CAN BE BOTH THE ARSONIST FOR POLICY AND  THE FIREMAN FOR SELF INFLUCTED WOUNDS> WIESEMEYER SAID IT'S THAT SIGN OF OPTIMISM THAT  HELPED THE COMMODITY MARKETS RESPOND  POSITIVELY TO THE NEWS.  ANALYTS POINT OUT SOYBEANS ARE IN THE SPOTLIGHT,  BUT SOYBEANS WERE DESTINED FOR EUROPE EVEN  BEFORE THE NEWS.   <NOW I DON'T NECESSAIRLY KNWO THAT HTIS DEAL WITH THE EU DOES  ANY CHANGE TO THE SUPPLY AND DEMAND SITUJATION. COUTNRIES OUT OF EUROPSE WERE GONG TO BUY BEANS FROM THE U-S BECUASE OF THE  STEEP DISCOUNT RELATIVE TO THE BEANS OUT OF BRAZIL, SO ID ON'T KNWO  THAT IT CHANGES ANYTHING THERE, BUT IT MAY DO SOMETHING TO CHANGE SENTIMENT IN REGARD TO LARGE MONEY MANAGERS, S TRUMP CONTINUING TO PUT THE FOCUS ON FARMERS  THIS WEEK AS HE TREKED THROUGH BOTH IOWA AND ILLINOIS.  THE PRESIDENT CONTINUING TO TOUT THE  FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT WITH THE E-U AND THE  BENEFIT IT WILL PROVIDE TO IOWA FARMERS <WE JUST OPENED UP EUROPE FOR YOUR FARMERS. YOU'RE NOT GOING TO  BE TO ANGY WITH TRUMP BECUASE YOU HAD BARRIERS, WOULDN'T YOU SAY KIM, YOU HAD BARRIERS THAT REALLY MADE IT IMPOSSIBLE FOR  PRODUCTS TO GO IN> HE ALSO VOICED HIS SUPPORT FOR THE RENEWABLE  FUELS STANDARD. HE ALSO COMMITTED TO MAKING HIGHER BELNDS OF ETHANOL, INCLUDING E-15 YEAR  ROUND. CHINA SAYS IT WILL FIGHT BACK AGAINST EVERY TARIFF  THE U-S PUTS INTO PLACE. THAT'S AS CHINA'S  PURCHASES OF U-S SOYBEANS ARE AT THE LOWEST  LEVEL IN MORE THAN A DECADE. INSTEAD, SOURCING  MORE BRAZILIAN BEANS.  ACCORDING TO BLOOMBERG, THE CHINESE  GOVERNMENT SAYING THIS WEEK ITS READY TO  RESPOND TO TO TARIFFS FROM THE U-S, WHETHER IT  COMES IN THE FORM OF 16 BILLION DOLLARS OR 200  BILLION DOLLARS.  CHINESE OFFICIALS ALSO SAYING BOTH SIDES HAVE  HAD NO CONTACT ABOUT RENEWING TRADE TALKS.  ANOTHER ROUND OF NAFTA NEGOTIATIONS KICKING  OFF IN WASHINGTON THIS WEEK, WITH MORE UPBEAT  COMMENTS ABOUT A BILATERAL DEAL WITH MEXICO.  BUT LIGHTHIZER TELLING THE SENATE APPROPRIATIONS COMMITTEE THAT THE U-S IS CLOSE  TO REACHING A BROAD AGREEMENT TO RENEGOTIATE  NAFTA. BUT DIDN'T PROVIDE A HARD TIMELINE FOR A  DEAL.  HE SAID HOPEFULLY THE COUNTIRES ARE IN FINISHING  STAGES. MEANWHILE, LIGHTHIZER ALSO PUTTING A POSITIVE  SPIN ON TRADE WITH JAPAN.  HE SAYS JAPANESE OFFICIALS HAVE AGREED TO A  MEETING WITH THEIR U.S. COUNTERPART SOON. ALSO SAYING A POTENTIAL DEAL WITH JAPAN IS A HIGH  PRIORITY. AN UPDATED LOOK AT CATTLE INVENTORY SHOWED  NUMBERS WERE IN LINE WITH ANALYSTS'  EXPECTATIONS, PROVIDIGN NO REAL SHOCK TO THE  MARKET LAST WEEK.  STARTING WITH INVENTORY - ALL CATTLE AND CALVES  AS OF JULY FIRST THERE ARE 103-MILLION HEAD IN THE  COUNTRY. THAT'S ONE PERCENT HIGHER THAN LAST  YEAR. . USDA ALSO UPDATING NUMBERS FROM THE FEEDLOT. CATTLE AND CALVES ON FEED FOR THE SLAUGHTER  MARKET TOTALLING 11-POINT-THREE MILLION HEAD.  USDA SAYS THIS IS THE HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE THIS REPORT BEGAN IN 1996. . PLACEMENTS DURING JUNE TOTALED NEARLY ONE- POINT-EIGHT <1.79> MILLION HEAD, ONE PERCENT  ABOVE 2017. . MARKETINGS OF FED CATTLE LAST MONTH ARE ALSO UP  ONE PERCENT. 

TEASE
THAT'S IT FOR THE NEWS, WHEN WE COME BACK, MIKE HOFFMAN HAS HIS 90 DAY FORECAST. PLUS, WE'RE ON THE ROAD TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS  WHERE ONE ANALYSTS SAYS IF YOU HAVE UNPRICED  CORN, YOU MAY WANT TO DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT IN  THE NEXT COUPLE WEEKS. 

WEATHER
IT'S TIME NOW TO CHECK WEATHER WITH METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN. MIKE, THE DROUGHT  MONITOR SHOWS DRYNESS PARKED ACROSS MISSOURI  AND SPANS ACROSS THE HE SOUTHWEST. BUT MUCH  OF THE CORNBELT LOOKS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD  SHAPE.   YEAH YOU'RE ABSOLUTELY RIGHT TYNE IT'S IS BASICALLY FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI DOWN THROUGH TEXAS AND THEN BACK THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE BIG CONCERN IS RUSSELL SEEING THAT DRIER AREA DEVELOPING AROUND OREGON SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON BUT MOST OF THE CORN BELT NOT REALLY SEEING ANY DROUGHT CONDITIONS EVEN THAT AREA AROUND MICHIGAN WILL PROBABLY IMPROVE AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS YOU'VE SEEN SOME RAIN RECENTLY. BUT LET'S GO BACK A MONTH. YOU CAN SEE WE ARE ALREADY GETTING DRY MOST OF LOUISIANA ARKANSAS INTO TEXAS BUT IT HAS GOTTEN DRIER AND IN FACT EVEN MORE THAN MISSOURI HAS GOTTEN DRIER OVER THE PAST MONTH DESPITE SOME RAIN GOING ALL AROUND YOU. YOU HAVE BEEN GETTING MIST AND SOMETIMES THAT HAPPENS WITH DROUGHTS IT KIND OF FEEDS OFF ITSELF AND IT JUST KIND OF STAYS DRY. SO THAT'S WHAT'S HAPPENING IN NORTHERN MISSOURI. BUT YOU CAN SEE HOW SPOTTY IT IS. THERE ARE SOME AREAS NOT NEARLY AS BAD AS OTHERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE PLAINS AND IN THE SOUTHWEST MOST AREAS ARE VERY DRY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THERE'S THE JET STREAM WE CONTINUE TO SEE THIS PATTERN IT HAS FLIP FLOPPED IN THE COUNTRY. WE NOW SEE THE TROUGH IN THE EAST WE'LL SEE A CUT OFF FOR A LITTLE WHILE AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF THIS WEEK OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THAT TROUGH TRIES TO MOVE AWAY ANOTHER WIND DIGGING IN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AND THE IS KIND OF STAYING IN THE SOUTHWEST OCCASIONALLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST AS WELL. AND YOU CAN SEE THAT WILL OCCUR AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  SO THIS IS KIND OF THE PATTERN I THINK WE'LL SEE FOR MOST OF THE REST OF AUGUST AS WE HEAD INTO AUGUST AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE MONTH MAINLY A TROUGH IN THE EAST A RIDGE IN THE WEST KIND OF OPPOSITE OF WHAT WE WERE SEEING DURING THE MONTH OF JUNE. THERE'S THE MAP AS WE START THIS WEEK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THAT WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST HIT AND MISS STUFF. MID-ATLANTIC DOWN INTO FLORIDA ALSO INTO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON BY WEDNESDAY THEN THAT STORM SYSTEM FINALLY MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND WE WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UP AND DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS YOU CAN SEE THERE A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ALONG THE SECONDARY FRONT COMING IN BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR. THE HEAT BUILDS UP IN THE WEST. AS YOU CAN SEE THERE AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COMING INTO WESTERN CANADA WITH A FEW SHOWERS BY FRIDAY THEN THAT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OR MAYBE SOME RAIN SHOWERS MAYBE THUNDERSHOWERS WITH THAT AS WELL AND THEN HIT MISS AGAIN INTO THE SOUTHWEST. AND YOU CAN SEE A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE SOUTHEAST COOL FRONT IN THE NORTHEAST WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS. ALL RIGHT 90 DAY OUTLOOK WILL GO MONTH BY MONTH AUGUST TEMPERATURES FROM THE GREAT LAKES NORTHERN PLAINS BELOW NORMAL SOUTHERN PLAINS SOUTHEAST EASTERN SEABOARD AND WEST COAST ABOVE NORMAL SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES I'M TAKING ALL THE COOL STUFF AWAY NEAR NORMAL FOR MUCH AS MOST OF THE CORN BELT EAST SOUTH AND WEST ABOVE NORMAL AND THEN BELOW NORMAL AGAIN FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN OCTOBER EASTERN SEABOARD GULF COAST IN THE WEST EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL 90 DAY PRECIPITATION ABOVE IN THE SOUTHEAST SOUTHWEST UNFORTUNATELY BELOW FROM MISSOURI SOUTHWARD THROUGH TEXAS. TYNE.

TEASE
WHEN WE COME BACK, WE'RE OFF TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS UNVIERSITY IN CARBONDALE WHERE BOB  UTTERBACK AND CHIP NELLINGER DIVE INTO OUR  MARKETING DISCUSSION.

ROUNDTABLE 1
WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT THIS WEEKEND ON THE ROAD IN  CARBONDALE ILLINOIS A BIG THANKS TO AMERICAN FARM MORTGAGE  LEGIONS BANK AND ALL OF THE SPONSORS FOR HAVING US OUT THIS WEEK WE'RE RECORDING THIS DISCUSSION ON TUESDAY AND AS WE KNOW  WITH THESE MARKETS TODAY AS WE KNOW WITH THIS TERROR TALK TODAY A  LOT CAN HAPPEN BETWEEN TUESDAY AND THE WEEKEND. I JUST WANT TO PREFACE IT WITH THAT BUT IT'S ALREADY BEEN A BIG WEEK. BOB WHEN  WE LOOK AT THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION ANNOUNCING IS THIS TOP TIER A  PLAN OF 12 BILLION DOLLARS STILL TRYING TO SIFT THROUGH THE DETAILS  EXACTLY WHAT IT MEANS. BUT PSYCHOLOGICALLY IT IMPACTED THE WAY  THE MARKET ON TUESDAY. I THINK THAT'S THE WORD PSYCHOLOGICALLY IS THAT IT GIVEN HOPE THAT LEAST WE'RE NOT GOING TO GO LOWER FOR THE  SHORT TERM REFERENCE TO MORE BEARISH. BUT IT DOES SUGGEST THAT  THE ADMINISTRATION IS IN FOR THE LONG PULL AND THIS IS A NEGOTIATION TACTIC I THINK TO PUT MORE PRESSURE BACK ON THE CHINESE. AND SO I  DON'T THINK IT'S GOING TO GO AWAY QUICKLY SO IT'S REALLY AN  IMPERATIVE IN WHICH IS THE NEXT ISSUE WHICH IS THE NAFTA NEGOTIATIONS I THINK PUT MORE PRESSURE ON US TO GET SOMETHING  DONE THERE IN A POSITIVE WAY. WE'LL TALK ABOUT IT AFTER NEGOTIATIONS  NEXT. BUT TALKING MORE IN-DEPTH ABOUT THIS TARIFF PLAN IT SOUNDS  LIKE IT'S GOING TO BE THREE DIFFERENT PIECES OF IT MAYBE SOME  PAYMENTS TO FARMERS TALKING ABOUT PSYCHOLOGICALLY IT IMPACTED THE MARKET. DO YOU THINK THAT IT ARTIFICIALLY INFLATES THE MARKET. I  MEAN DO YOU THINK THAT THIS IS A GOOD THING FOR THE MARKET TODAY  OR IS IT JUST SHORT TERM GAIN.   I THINK IT'S SHORT TERM GAIN. I'M STILL SCRATCHING MY HEAD WHY BEANS WERE UP DOUBLE DIGITS BECAUSE I THINK IN THE BIG  PICTURE IT'S HORRIBLE. IT'S NOT WHAT WE MEAN WE ALREADY ARE TRYING  TO GET A FREER MARKET WITH SOME OF THESE TARIFFS AND IT'S NOT NECESSARILY A FAIR PLAYING FIELD WITH CHINA. BUT IN MY OPINION THIS  IS REALLY ABOUT WHAT THE MARKET NEEDS PARTICULARLY IF IT ENDS UP  BEING SOME DIRECT PURCHASES. YOU KNOW I THINK FARMERS ARE MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT AS WELL THEY WANT JUST FREE TRADE AND LET'S  COMPETE AND GROW THE BIGGEST BEST HIGHEST QUALITY CROPS THAT  THE WORLD CAN PROVIDE. SO ALL THIS IS GOING TO DO IF IT DOES GIVE  YOU A BOMB IS GOING TO ARTIFICIALLY INCENTIVIZE ADDITIONAL ACRES.  WHEN OUR DEMAND IS SHRINKING SO IN MY OPINION IT'S NOT A GOOD  THING. LONGER TERM THAT TRADE NOT AID THAT'S WHAT I CONTINUE TO  HEAR FROM FARM GROUPS THAT'S WHY I CONTINUE TO HEAR FROM FARMERS. BUT THE REALITY TODAY IS BOB YOU SAID IT THIS YOU THINK IS  A SIGNAL THAT THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IS NOT BACKING DOWN FROM  THIS TRADE WAR THAT THINGS MAY HEAT UP. SO DO YOU THINK THAT CHINA IS GOING TO BACK DOWN OR DO THEY HAVE AN ENDGAME WITH  THIS WHAT DO THEY WANT TO SEE FROM THEM. I HAVE YOU KNOW A LOT  OF CONTACTS YOU KNOW THE INDUSTRY AND IT SEEMS TO ME THAT CHINA'S ENDGAME IS THEY SEE AS AN ECONOMIC MAJOR ECONOMIC  COMPETITOR AND THEY'RE GOING TO DO. THEY'RE GOING TO MAINTAIN  ECONOMIC INDEPENDENCE FROM US. AND I WOULD ARGUE THAT THEY HAVE MORE POLITICAL AND SOCIAL EFFECT ON SOUTH AMERICA TO  EXPAND IN SOUTH AMERICA.   AND I WOULD ARGUE THAT'S WHERE THEY REALLY WANT TO PUT  THEIR THEIR EGGS IN THAT BASKET AND IF THEY START DEVELOPING A RAIL SYSTEM AND GET THE GRAIN OUT OF THE INFRASTRUCTURE OF BRAZIL THAT  COULD BE VERY LONG TERM DEVASTATING. HOW. WHAT TYPE OF TIME PER  WEEK OFTEN FIVE 10 YEAR PROBABLY FIVE 10 YEAR TIME PERIOD. BUT I'VE HEARD AS MUCH AS 25 TO 30 MILLION ACRES PASTURE LAND THAT  COULD BE BROUGHT IN PRODUCTION NEEDS IS PRICE AND IT NEEDS  TRANSPORTATION TO GET IT FROM THE INTO YOUR MOUTH. SO IT'S IT'S A ROCESS. I THINK CHINA WANTS TO DEVELOP DOWN THERE AND THE  CHINA DON'T NOT REALLY BOTHERED BY THIS TRADE WAR AS MUCH AS WE  THINK THEY SHOULD BE. SHOULD WE WE'VE SEEN THE IMPACT THAT TARIFFS ARE HAVING ON PRICES. RIGHT. WE'VE SEEN THAT. BUT ARE  THESE TARIFFS ACTUALLY IMPACTING OUR EXPORTS. I MEAN ARE WE  EXPORTING LESS OF THESE COMMODITIES THAT WE'VE SEEN THESE  MAJOR TARIFFS PUT INTO PLAY. SO FAR WE HAVE AND AGAIN THIS IS THE  DOUBLE EDGED SWORD OF NOT HAVING A FREE MARKET RIGHT. SO WE'RE  TWO DOLLARS CHEAPER PER BUSHEL EPIC GOAL COMPARED TO BRAZIL BEANS. THAT'S ESSENTIALLY THE WHOLE YOU KNOW RETALIATORY TARIFF.  SO ALTHOUGH CHINA IS NOT BUYING THE REST OF THE WORLD'S BUYING  BECAUSE WE'RE THAT MUCH CHEAPER THAN BRAZIL RIGHT NOW. SO IT'S ARTIFICIALLY CREATING SOME EXTRA DEMAND FROM COUNTRIES THAT  WOULD TYPICALLY BE BUYING IT FROM BRAZIL BECAUSE WE'RE CHEAPER.  CHINA'S NOT BUYING IT RIGHT NOW BUT THEY'RE LIKELY GOING TO HAVE TO  END UP BUYING SOME OF OUR BEANS REGARDLESS. IT'S JUST AN  ARTIFICIAL MARKET AND IT JUST MESSES UP THE EQUILIBRIUM.  RIGHT NOW YOU CAN ARGUE WE'RE TOO LOW. IF WE GET A TWEET  TOIGHT THAT ALL OF A SUDDEN THE TRADE WARS OVER BEANS ARE GOING  TO RALLY AT LEAST A DOLLAR IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SO IT'S JUST A UNPRECEDENTED ENVIRONMENT YOU AGREE WITH THAT. I'M GOING TO  GIVE A HARRIS TO COME IN BECAUSE I WORK WITH AGRICULTURE FARMERS  AND FARMERS BEST INTERESTS. BUT AS A AMERICAN CONSUMER BUYING BEEF PORK AND GRAIN PRODUCTS AND AGRIBUSINESS ARE OUTSIDE THAT  CULTURE. 5 PERCENT GROWTH RATES THE EARNINGS ARE FABULOUS. SO  ARE LOWER AND THE COST OF PRODUCING MERCURIAN AGRICULTURE ITEMS. SO THERE IS A BENEFIT SIDE OF THESE LOWER PRICES THAT'S  ECONOMICALLY STIMULATING AND UNFORTUNATELY I THINK AGRICULTURE  RIGHT NOW IS THE SACRIFICIAL POND AND A MULTA AND A MUCH BIGGER PIE. AND THAT WERE OUR REAL PROBLEM IS POLITICALLY HOW CAN WE  REALLY GAIN THE MOMENTUM. ONE OTHER POSITIVE BENEFITS OUTWEIGH  THE NEGATIVES. WHILE WE'RE IN UNCHARTED WATER WHEN IT COMES TO SOME OF THESE TARIFFS SO WHAT WILL IT TAKE TO ENCOURAGE HIGHER  PRICES. WE NEED TO TAKE A QUICK BREAK. BUT LATER ON THAT US FARM REPORT  

JOHN’S WORLD
AS COMMODITY PRICES SEE WEAKNESS, THE LIFE OF EQUIPMENT ON FARMS IS BEOMCING LONGER AND LONGER. AND IT'S IMPACTING MORE THAN JUST THE  DRIVER. HERE'S JOHN PHIPPS.  I'VE SPOKEN BEFORE ABOUT HOW WE ARE GETTING COMFORTABLE WITH  DRIVING MACHINERY LONGER WE USED TO. OLD MILESTONES LIKE 2000  OR EVEN 5000 HOURS SEEM OUTDATED, AND SO FAR, IT HAS WORKED  OUT WELL FOR US.. MUCH OF THE CREDIT GOES TO THE MACHINERY AND MANUFACTURERS,  BUT THE ABILITY TO CROWD-SOURCE MACHINERY TIPS AND OTHER  INFORMATION FROM THE INTERNET IS NOT SMALL PART. WE CAN NOW SELF DIAGNOSE AND EVEN FIX MORE REPAIRS THAN EVER. THIS SAME  INFORMATION REVOLUTION ALSO MEANS BEING LESS CONCERNED WHEN SOME TRAGICALLY YOUNG TECHNICIAN ARRIVES WITH A LAPTOP INSTEAD OF  AN OLDER, SEASONED VETERAN WITH YEARS OF ACCUMULATED  EXPERIENCE THAT INSPIRED CONFIDENCE. THAT WISDOM IS STORED IN  THE COMPUTER NOW, NOT JUST THE MEMORY OF A MECHANIC. ALL OF THESE CHANGES FOR THE BETTER, EXCEPT MAYBE FROM THE  STANDPOINT OF A MACHINERY SALESMAN, ARE REAL BUT VERY HARD TO  QUANTIFY. THIS MEANS WHILE OUR LIVES HAVE GOTTEN BETTER, IT WON'T  NECESSARILY SHOW UP AS A BUMP IN GDP, OR ANY OTHER ECONOMIC STATISTIC, BECAUSE FOR THE MOST PART, MONEY DOESN'T CHANGE HANDS. IT TURNS OUT THAT MONEY IS ONE OF THE FEW THINGS WE CAN  TRACK WITH ANY LEVEL OF ACCURACY. ECONOMISTS ARE FRUSTRATED AS  THEY TRY TO MEASURE HOW MUCH PROGRESS WE ARE MAKING AS INDIVIDUALS OR EVEN AS A COUNTRY. ALL ACROSS OUR ECONOMY, THE INFORMATION EXPLOSION IS BOOSTING PRODUCTIVITY AND MAKING LIVES BETTER, BUT IT MUCH OF IT GOES  UNREMARKED AND IGNORED. IN FACT, THERE IS GOOD REASON TO  SUSPECT MOST OF THE IMPROVEMENT IN OUR LIVING STANDARD GOES UNCOUNTED. MAYBE ONE REASON WE ARE STRUGGLING TO UNDERSTAND  HOW THE ECONOMY AS A WHOLE WORKS IS WE CAN'T MEASURE THE  THINGS THAT ARE MAKING THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES. OFFICIAL ECONOMIC GROWTH STATISTICS HAVE BEEN SO DISAPPOINTING FOR SO MANY YEARS  IN PART BECAUSE WE NEED NEW WAYS OF QUANTIFYING THE CHANGES  IN LIVING STANDARDS AND WHAT MAKES LIFE BETTER. PERSONALLY, I THINK  AS THE WORLD MOVES FAR PAST HAVING ENOUGH TO SURVIVE, MANY OF US ARE FINDING HAPPINESS HAS LESS TO DO WITH WEALTH THAN WE  THOUGHT.   THANKS, JOHN. MACHINERY PETE HAS A COLLECTOR'S GEM IN  COLRADO TO SHARE WITH US NEXT.  

TRACTOR TALES
HEY FOLKS WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES. THIS WEEK WE'RE  OUT WEST IN LONGMONT COLORADO. REAL TREAT FOR YOU. HERE I'VE GOT  CODY MCARTHUR WITH FOUR RIVERS EQUIPMENT THEY'RE GREAT JOHN WHEELER DEALER AND CODY INHERE BEAUTIFUL DEALERSHIP HERE IN  FRONT DISPLAY AREA. WE'VE WE'VE GOT TO TREAT ONES THAT DON'T  SURVIVE. SO THIS IS A 1925 MODEL DIVA SPOKE FLYWHEEL THAT BELONGS TO MY FAMILY. THE TRACTOR WAS ONE OF THE FIRST TRACTORS  THAT WE HAD ON THE FARM AND WE HOMESTEADED IN EASTERN  COLORADO IN THE LATE 1920S AND THEN IT WAS SOLD AT A FARM SALE IN  ABOUT 1940 AND BY THEN MY GREAT UNCLE HAD STARTED A JOHN  DEERE DEALERSHIP IN FLAGLER COLORADO. IT WAS YOUR GREAT UNCLES.  HIS NAME WAS HAROLD MCARTHUR. AND THE NAME OF THE DEALERSHIP IT WAS MACARTHUR IMPROVEMENT COMPANY. SO SOLD IN 1940 SOLD  1940 TO FARM SALE. HE KNEW WHO HAD IT AND HE TRADED IT BACK IN  IN ABOUT 1970. 30 YEARS GOTHARD YEARS GONE. HE TRADED THE TRACTOR BACK IN AND SENT AROUND THE DEALERSHIP FOR A WHILE. AND  THEN IN 1988 THE TOWN OF BURLINGTON WHERE IT WAS THAT OPENED UP  A NEW MUSEUM CALLED OLD TOWN. SO PRAIRIE MUSEUM FULL OF OLD TRACTORS. WESTERN HISTORY. SO THIS TRACTOR SAT IN THERE FOR YEARS.  EVENTUALLY THEY WERE GOING TO MOVE THE TRACTOR COLLECTION  OUTSIDE SO THAT SOMEONE WOULD PICK THE TRACTOR UP BROUGHT IT BACK TO THE STORE AND THEN HAD A FULL RESTORATION DONE A FEW  YEARS LATER. WHAT PEOPLE SAY WHEN THEY COME INTO THE  DEALERSHIP ALL THESE BEAUTIFUL MODERN MACHINES THOSE FANTASTIC  THINGS FOR CUSTOMERS.  BUT HERE YOU HAVE A 1925 DO YOU WHAT DO THEY SAY. WOW  IS USUALLY THE FIRST THING WE GET A LOT OF. THERE'S A LOT TO TWO  CYLINDER FANS IN THE AREA AND WE DO A LOT OF THANK YOU'S FOR  HAVING SOMETHING LIKE THIS A PIECE OF HISTORY AND THE DEALERSHIP THAT WE CELEBRATE.  THANKS, GREG. 

TEASE
STILL TO COME, IS THE 12 BILLION DOLLAR TARIFF AID  PACKAGE IMPEDING A FREE MARKET? OUR FARM  JOURNAL REPORT IS NEXT.  

FARM JOURNAL REPORT
FROM THE STUDIOS OF FARM JOURNAL BROADCAST, THIS IS U.S. FARM REPORT.  IT WAS A MASSIVE TARIFF AID PACKAGE ROLLED OUT FROM THE TRUMP ADMINSTRATION THIS WEEK. BUT AS  PRODUCERS SEE SHORT-TERM FINANCIAL GAIN, SOME  ANLYSTS FEAR IT COULD CREATE LONG-TERM MARKET  PAIN. THAT'S THIS WEEK'S FARM JOURNAL REPORT.  <THAT'S HAIL DAMAGE> IT'S BEEN A ROUGH RIDE FOR FARMERS LIKE MICHAEL  COX. <WE HAD PROBBALY ABOUT THE 9 LEAF STAGE> FROM HAIL TO HEAT TO DRYNESS, HE SAYS IT'S A  SOUTHERN ILLINOIS CORN CROP THAT WILL COME IN SHORT OF LAST YEAR. < SO A LOT OF HTE BASES HAVE HOLES IN THEM AND THE STALKS ARE  FALLIGN DOWN SO WE PROBABLY ALREADY HAVE 25 PERCENT OF HTE CORN ON TEH GROUND> BUT IF RAIN COMES SOON, HIS BEANS MAY BE  BOUNTIFUL, <THE LATER SEASON BEANS ARE LOOKING GOOD BUT THEY STILL NEED  SOME TIMELY RAINS TO FINISH THEM ON OUT. BUT AS A WHOLE THE BEAN  CROP LOOKS BETTER THAN THE CORN CROP DOES> THAT'S AS SOYBEAN PRICES SHOWED SUMMER PAIN.  <UNFORTUNATELY RIGHT NOW AGRICULTURE IS THE SACRIFICIAL PAWN> A RALLY THIS WEEK HELPED BOOST PRICES. AND IT ALL  STARTED WHEN TEH TRUMP ADMINSTRATION ROLLED  OUT A 12 BILLION DOLLAR TARIFF AID PACKAGE TO  FARMERS ON TUESDAY.  <" AS WE MADE CLEAR TODAY, THIS ADMINISTRATION WILL NOT STAND BY  WHILE OUR HARDWORKING PRODUCERS BEAR THE BRUNT OF UNFRIENDLY  AND ILLEGAL TARIFFS ENACTED BY FOREIGN NATIONS.">  TRUMP TWEETING TUESDAY THAT QUOTE- TARIFFS ARE  THE GREATEST! GOING ON TO SAY, WE ARE HTE PIGGY BANK THAT'S BEEING ROBBED BUT SOME FARMERS AREN'T SO SURE THE TARIFF AID  PACKAGE IS A GOOD THING.  <IT'S GOING TO BE A SHORT-TERM GAIN, BUT THERE'S TOO MANY IFS  ABOUT THE PROGRAM TOO> EVEN AG LENDERS SAY IT WILL HELP SHORT-TERM, BUT  THE LONG-TERM BENEFITS AREN'T AS GREAT.  <IT'S A BANDAID. I DON'T THINK IT'S A LONGTERM FIX BY ANY STRETCH OF  THE IMAGININACTION BECASUE IT'S APPEARING TO ARTIFICIALLY CHANGE A  MARKET FROM WHAT THE REALITY IS> FARM JOURNAL WASHINGTON CORRESPONDANT SAYS DETAILS ARE STILL BEING WORKED THROUGH, BUT IT'S  AID AND NOT A BAILOUT. <I WON'T CALL IT A BAILOUT BECAUSE NO PROGRAM WILL EVERY  MAKE  FARMERS WHOLE WITH WHAT SOME OF THEM HAVE GONE THROUGH> THE AID TO FARMERS WILL COME IN THE FORM OF A  DIRECT ASSISTANCE PROGRAM, AS WELL AS MONEY TO  HELP WITH FOOD PRUCHASES AND FUNDING FOR  PROMOTING TRADE. BUT THE FARMER PAYMENTS  WON'T HAPPEN UNTIL HARVEST OCCURS <WELL THE REQUIRMENTS ARE DFINITELY YOU HAE TO TELL USDA WHAT  YOUR HARVEST WAS, ADN THEN THEY'LL HAVE AN EASY SIGN UP AND  THEY AHVE THE MECHANISM FOR HTE PAYMENT  THEY NEED TO  DETERMINE A PAYMENT CALCULATION> WHILE DAIRY, HOGS AND SOYBEANS HAVE BEEN IN THE FOCUS OF HTE TARIFF AID PACKAGE, NOW OTHER  PRODUCERS ARE WONDERING IF THEY'LL REAP THE  BENEFITS TOO.  FOR EXAMPLE, NEW ENGLAND'S LOBSTER INDUSTRY  EXPORTS MORE THAN 20 PERCENT OF THEIR PRODUCT.  AND U-S FACE A 40 PERCENT TARIFF ON LIVE LOBSTER  AND 35 PERCENT TARIFF ON PROCESSED LOBSTER,  WITH POSSIBLY MORE TARIFFS ON THE WAY. <THAT IS A FAIR QUESTION AND IT'S AN EQUITABLE QUESTION.AND  THAT'S WHAT YOU GET INTO.  IT WAS ONE THING WITH THE CARTER GRAIN  EMBARGO WHERE YOU HAD SPECIFIC COMMODITIES IMPACTED. THIS  ONE GOES ACROSS THE BOARD,  BUT AS THE FINANCIAL HELP SERVES AS A PACIFIER  FOR NOW, LEGISLATORS SAY THEY'VE HAD ENOUGH.  "THIS TRADE WAR IS CAUSING LOTS AND LOTS OF PROBLEMS. IT'S NOT FIXING PROBLEMS." > AND IT'S SOME FARMERS ECHOING LEGISLATOR'S  FEARS. "AT THIS POINT NOW, WE'RE NOT SEEING AN END TO THIS, WE'RE NOT  SEEING THAT THIS IS JUST GOING TO BE SHORT-TERM. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS IS  GOING TO BE LASTING LONGER AND LONGER."> BOB UTTERBACK OF UTTERBACK MARKETING SAYS THE  TRADE TENSIONS WITH CHINA COULD BE LONG- LASTING.  <IF TRUMP IS GOING TO AHVE A TRADE POLICY DONE, HE HAS TO HAVE IT DONE BY MID AUGUST SO HE CAN GET IT IMPLEMENTED SO HE CAN  GET THE POLICIAL POLSITIVE REACTION BY THE MIDTERMS-- HE SAYS FIGHTING FOR FAIRER TRADE COULD HELP  LONG-TERM, ESPEICALLY FOR GRAINS AND LIVESTOCK.  <BUT INT EH NEXT YEAR I THINK ITS' GOIGN TO BE TOUGH> SOYBEANS RESPONDED POSITIVELY TUESDAY TO THE  NEWS, BUT SOME ANALYSTS SAY IT WAS A  PSYHCOLOGICAL MOVE, IMPEDING A FAIR MARKET.  . WHAT IT COULD DO THOUGH, REGARDLESS, IS HELP INCENTIVISE FARMERS TO CONTINUE TO PLANT BEANS, PROP BEAN PROICES UP ARTIFIICALLYIN  INCENTIVISE ADDITONAL BEAN ACRES, IF IT LASTS THAT LONG, AT A TIME  WHERE WE'RE LOSING DEMAND AND HAVE A BIG CROP AND THAT'S NOT WHAT THE MARKET NEEDS AS FARMERS WEIGH WHAT THE TARIFF AID MEANS,  SOME FARMERS ARE IN THE CAMP OF MORE TRADE THAN AID.  <"I LIKE MY POLITICS BORING. I WOULD BE MUCH HAPPIER. I THINK THE  INDUSTRY WOULD BE MUCH HAPPIER IN ALL OF AGRICULTURE IF WE  ELIMINATED TARIFFS. THEY'RE NOT GOOD FOR AGRICULTURE."> NOW SOME ANALYSTS FEAR THAT THE 12 BILLION  DOLLAR PACKAGE WILL HINDER THE 2018 FARM BILL  GETTING PASSED THIS YEAR. BUT WIESEMEYER SAYS  HE THINK IT ACTUALLY HELPS, AS IT DRAWS  IMPORTANCE TO FARMERS' NEEDS RIGHT NOW.  

TEASE
UP NEXT, WE'RE HEADING BACK TO SIU CARBONDALE, AND SEEING IF ANALYSTS THINK THE GROWING CATTLE RD WILL PUSH PRICES LOWER. THAT'S NEXT.  

ROUNDTABLE 2
WELCOME BACK THANKS AGAIN TO AMERICAN FARM MORTGAGE  AND LEGENCE BANK AND ALL THE SPNORS FOR HAVING US IN  CARBONDALE ILLINOIS. THIS WEEK WE TALKED ABOUT THIS UNCHARTED WATER THAT WE'RE IN WHEN WE LOOK AT THE TARIFFS AND YOU LOOK AT  ROP CONDITIONS. AND LAST YEAR WE HAD A LOT OF ANALYSTS SAY YOU  KNOW WE COULD HAVE YOU LOOK AT CROP CONDITIONS YOU LOOK AT THAT HE POOR CROP CONDITIONS WE HAVE WE'RE NOT GOING TO HAVE A  ECORD CROP THIS YEAR. WE HAVE STELLAR CROP CONDITIONS. DO YOU  THINK THAT WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A RECORD CROP THIS YEAR. OH I THINK IT'S VERY LIKELY. I DON'T THINK MAYBE IT WILL END UP BEING QUITE  AS BIG AS WHAT THE MARKET THINKS OR THIS ISN'T CORN I'M TALKING  RIGHT NOW. I THINK IT'S PROBABLY STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL AND BEANS  WE'VE GOT SIX WEEKS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE INVOLVED OR ARE WE  GOING TO AFFECT FINAL MEALS. BUT I THINK IT'S A BIG CROP BUT I COULD ALSO SEE YOU COME IN A BUSHEL OR TWO BELOW LAST YEAR BECAUSE  IT'S NOT AS CONSISTENT IN SOME AREAS. ILLINOIS I THINK IT'S BETTER.  GREAT BUT I DON'T KNOW THAT YOU KNOW MAYBE IOWA IS CLOSE. I  THINK SOME OF THE OTHER STATES ARE FAR FAR BEHIND. AND YOU KNOW  YOU DON'T HAVE TALKED TO A LOT OF PRODUCERS HERE THAT SAY WE COULD HAVE YIELDS BETTER THAN LAST YEAR. SO DO YOU THINK WE  MISSED OUR OPPORTUNITY TO PRICE.  WELL I THINK THAT THE I AS A SELLER THE BEAR I'M OUT OF THE  MARKET SOWING PROBABLY TO NEXT MAY JUNE OF NEXT YEAR STRATEGY  WISE I DON'T THINK THERE'S ANY REALLY GREAT SELLING STRATEGIES. SO  THAT'S WHY I'M SO FRANTIC ABOUT BEING A SELLER IN THE MARKHAM'S  SUMMER'S SPRING HIGHS. APRIL MAY JUNE HIGHS SO REMEMBER HOW BAD THIS FEELS RIGHT NOW AND HOW HELPLESS YOU FEEL. AND THAT'S  WHY I'M SO EMPHATIC ABOUT WHAT TO SAY WHEN PROFITS SUFFERED.  BUT WITH THAT SAID I THINK THE FLAT PRICE CORN LOW IS PROBABLY I DON'T  THINK WE'LL TAKE OUT 350 MUCH IF WE CAN EVEN GO BACK DOWN OR  WHERE THE BASIS EXPOSURE I THINK IS A REAL PROBLEM ONE PRODUCT MOVEMENT THAT'S GOT TO MOVE OVER THE NEXT 45 DAYS. AND IF THE  CRUSHER START TO SHUT DOWN AND CLEAN UP AS THEY DO IN AUGUST  THAT'S GOING TO MAKE THE BEAN BASES GET NASTY WITH POTENTIAL IF WE'RE CLOSE TO A RECORD BEANFIELD. SO CASH IS WHERE MY PROBLEM  IS WAY MORE THAN A BOARD PRICE. BUT YOU THINK WE'RE HOLANDA  THESE PRICES UNTIL NEXT SUMMER. I THINK YOU HAVE AS A SELLER. THERE'S NOT GOING TO BE GREAT SELLING WINDOW UNTIL NEXT SUMMER.  YOU KNOW THIS YEAR IT'S LIKE WE DIDN'T EVEN HAVE THAT JULY WEATHER SCARE THAT EVERYONE WAS TALKING ABOUT THAT THAT DIDN'T  REALLY COME TO FRUITION SPECIFICALLY WITH THOSE HIGH CAME A LITTLE  BIT EARLIER THAN IT NORMALLY DOES MAYBE THROUGH FOUR WEEKS. WE  DIDN'T HAVE THAT SECONDARY RALLY. YOU KNOW I THINK THE THING  UNDERPINNING THIS WE HAVEN'T REALLY TALKED ABOUT CORN DEMAND IS MASSIVE. THE EUROPEAN CROP THE BLACK SEA UKRAINE CORN CROP  AND WHEAT CROP THEY HAD REALLY HOT DRY WEATHER.   THEY'RE NOT GOING TO HAVE AS MUCH TO EXPORT AND THERE  ARE MAJOR EXPORT PORTS OF THE WORLD GOING TO HAVE AS MUCH AS IT  HAD IN THE LAST FEW YEARS. THAT IS GOOD FOR US AND OUR INTERNAL  DOMESTIC DEMAND IS ALREADY RECORD LARGE WITH RECORD HOGS AND PIGS. RECORD CRUSH. IT'S A GOOD ENVIRONMENT. SO I AGREE WITH  BOB THAT WE'RE CLOSE TO A LOW. I THINK GOOD BOUNCES WILL COME.  BUT YOU'VE GOT TO MANAGE THE YOU KNOW THE NEXT COUPLE OR THREE WEEKS IS IT GOING TO BE FUN. SO GO AHEAD. WHAT IF IT COMES IN ON  A WEATHER SCARE OF FEBRUARY MARCH BECAUSE WE SOLD BEANS OFF  THE COMBINE AND WE HAD THAT FEBRUARY MARCH HIGH IN CORN BEAN DECEMBER CORN. NEXT YEAR IS AT 395. REMEMBER GUYS COSPER  ACTION 350 GIVES BACK TO 425 IN FEBRUARY MARCH 1 SOUTH OF WAS  HERE. WHY DO YOU BELIEVE YOU'RE GOING TO BE MORE SUCCESSFUL SELLING NEXT YEAR THAN YOU HAVE IN THE PAST IF YOU DON'T DO SOMETHING DIFFERENT. CHIP MENTIONED A RECORD HOG SUPPLIES. WE  LOOK AT NAFTA NEGOTIATIONS GOING ON THIS WEEK. IF WE CAN GET A  DEAL WITH MEXICO IF WE CAN GET A BILATERAL DEAL WITH MEXICO. DO YOU THINK THAT HELPS LIFT OUR HOG PRICES OUT OF THESE FOR THIS 40  DOLLAR RANGE THAT WE'RE IN RIGHT NOW. AND IF IF WE GET A DEAL.  RIGHT. AND I THINK WE'LL HAVE BATTLEMENT AND EVEN IF WE DON'T GET A DEAL BECAUSE I DON'T SEE THE BIGGER NUMBER IS PRETTY MUCH ALL  WORK THROUGH THE SYSTEM BY THE FIRST QUARTER OF 019. BUT THE  PROBLEM IS AND I SEE MORE OF A BUT I WOULD WANT IF I HAD BIG HEDGES IN PLACE. I WOULDN'T TAKE PROFITS.  I WOULDN'T HAVE A LIMITED HEDGE PROFILE RIGHT NOW NOT A BIG  AGGRESSIVE SHORT POSITION. CHIP WHAT ABOUT CATTLE WE HAVE THE CATTLE ON FEED REPORT. LAST WEEK IT SHOWED LARGER NUMBERS ON  FEED BUT KIND OF IN LINE WITH ANALYSTS EXPECTATIONS OF WHAT THE  TRADE WAS EXPECTED. DO YOU THINK WE'VE PUT A LOW IN. I THINK WE  PROBABLY HAVE. BUT THAT DOESN'T MEAN WE'RE GOING TO GO STRAIGHT  UP WE'RE WE'RE HANDLING THESE BIG SUPPLIES AND CATTLE WAY BETTER  THAN WE ARE AND ON THE HAWK SIDE. SO PACKERS ARE MAKING GOOD  MONEY. I THINK WE'RE MORE IN RANGE AND I THINK YOU KNOW LIKE YOU SAID IT'S THE FIRST TIME IN ABOUT NINE MONTHS WE HAD KIND OF A  NEUTRAL CATALOG VANPORT EVEN THOUGH IT UNDERSCORED RECORD  PRODUCTION I THINK BY THE WINTER AND SPRING THINGS WERE MUCH BETTER GO PROBABLY LOOK AT THESE GROWING PROTEIN SUPPLIES THAT  WE HAVE IN THIS COUNTRY FEED USAGE USAGES TOPS OUT THIS YEAR. I  THINK THAT'S THE DOWNSIDE. HE TALKED ABOUT STRONG DEMAND YES BECAUSE USDA PUSHED THE FEED USAGE BUT THE SPRING OF 019  FEEDU.S. WOULD TOP OUT. AND I THINK YOU USE THAT AS YOU GO IN THE  LATE 9000 AND 20 WILL NOT BE AT THE 19. SO THAT MEANS EXPORTS WILL BE MORE IMPORTANT IN LATE 1920 TO COMPENSATE FOR A  REDUCTION OF ALL RIGHT THANK YOU BOTH FOR JOINING US HERE TODAY A  BIG THANKS TO YOU KNOW AMERICAN FARM MORTGAGE LEGIONS BANK AND ALL THE SPONSORS. STAY WITH US. WE HAVE MUCH MOREU.S.  FARM REPORT WHEN WE COME BACK. 

ON THE ROAD WITH MACHIENERY PETE
COLORADO MAY BE KNOWN FOR ITS PICTURE-PERFECT MOUNTAIN BACKDROP. BUT FOR FARMERS, IT'S THE  RANGE OF CROPS GROWN AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCED  THAT MAKES AGRICULTURE IN COLRADO SO UNIQUE.  THIS WEEK WE'RE ON TEH ROAD WITH MACHINERY PETE  TO LONGMONT COLRADO, WHERE 4RIVERS SAY IT'S DIVERSITY DRIVING DEMAND.  FIVE GENERATIONS STRONG…  "IT'S A VERY DEEP HERITAGE THAT WE HAVE  ON THIS HIGHLY SOUGHT GROUND IN THE LAND OF THE ROCKIES.   "WE PRETTY MUCH HAVE A SET ROTATION THAT WE  DO, DEPENDING A LOT ON THE WATER. SOME YEARS WE ARE SHORT ON  WATER AS WE ARE THIS YEAR" IT'S WATER THAT'S WANING AS EXTREME DRYNESS  GRASPS 40 PERCENT OF THE STATE. AND IT'S WATER THAT'S HERGERT'S BIGGEST CHALLENGE YEAR AFTER  YEAR "WE HAVE HAVE HAD A CHALLENGE. WE'VE HAD  A LOT OF 90 DEGREE DAYS AND NOT A LOT OF HELP FORM MOTHER NATURE,  NOT A LOT OF RAIN, AND THE WATER THAT WE DO HAVE IS RUNOFF FROM THE  MOUNTAINS" SNOWPACK WAS SPARSE AND GROWING  MUNICIPALITIES ARE FIGHTING FOR VALUABLE WATER.  THAT MEANS HIS AVAILABLE WATER HAS DECLINED 30 PERCENT IN RECENT YEARS, ADDING TO THE PAIN.   "WE'RE PROBABLY 8 TO 10 INCHES BEHIND AND WE  DON'T GET MUCH MOISTURE ANYWAY."  IT'S FARMERS LIKE HERGERT AND DAVID ASBURY  WHO'VE LEARNED TO KEY TO SURVIVAL IS BECOMING  MORE DIVERSE.  "IF YOU WERE TO LOOK AROUND, YOU'D SEE STUFF  YOU'D ONLY SEE IN CALIFONRIA OR AONLY ON THE EAST CAOST, ASBURY IS BRANCHING OUT, GROWING ABOUT 40  DIFFERENT CROPS TODAY… DIVERSITY THAT'S CAPPED  BY THE REALITIES OF FARMING.  "WE GREW ABOUT 60 DIFFERENT VEGETABES, WE  CUT IT BACK TO ABOUT 40 NOW. WE JUST DIDN'T HAVE THE MANPOWER  TO HARVEST SOME THINS AND THER'E SJUT NO USE OF PLANTING IT IF YOU  CAN'T HARVEST IT, SELLIG IT WAS'T A PROBLEM" THE LABOR SHORTAGE IS A HARSH FACT, AS DEMAND  FOR HIS PRODUCTS EBBS AND FLOWS WITH THE LATEST  TRENDS IN FOOD.  "THE BUNCHY GREENS, WHAT WE CALL BUNCHY  GREENS, SO THAT'S ALL OUR KALES, CHARDS, LETTUCES, BEETS, THINGS  LIKE THAT, THEY ARE HIGHLY DESIRABLE RIGHT NOW IN THE ORGANIC  MARKETPLACE BECAUSE WE ARE A CERTIFIED ORGANIC FARM" IT'S DIVERSITY ON THESE FARMS THAT CREATES  DIFFERENT DEMAND FOR LOCAL EQUIPMENT DEALERS.   "I WOULD STILL HAVE TO SAY OUR NUMBER 1  COMMODITY IS CORN. AND A LOT OF THAT IS CHOPPED FOR DAIRIES AND FOR CATTLE FEEDING" AND SO FAR IN 2018, SALES ARE SOLID.  "OUR FIRST 6 MONTHS OF SALES HERE HAVE BEEN  BEYOND WHAT I EXPECTED." 4-RIVERS EQUIPOMENT SAYS IT'S BEEN A GREAT START  TO THE YEAR WITH MORE INTERST IN USED, SEEING  WITNESSING RECORD SALES IN MAY AND JUNE.   "WE'VE ACTUALLY BEEN BUYING USED THE LAST FEW  MONTHS BECAUSE THE DEMAND IS HIGHER THAN WHAT WE COULD  SUPPLY LOCALLY AND OUR NEW MARKET HAS REALLY GROWN, AS WELL" WINBERG SAYS THE CUSTOMERS WHO ARE UPGRADING  ARE DOING SO OUT OF NEED.   "IT'S TIME. WE'VE HAD THE DOWN TURN IN THE FARM CONOMY FOR A NUMBER OF YEARS AND A LOT OF HTEM ARE HAVIN  TO REPLACE QUIPMENT NOW ON A NEEDS BASIS" THE HERGERTS ARE OPERATING TWO NEWER TRACTOR  TODAY. IT WAS TIME. WE TRADE A COUPLE TRACTORS. AND THE EFFICIENCY TOO.  IT'S THAT NEED BREAKING A TREND THAT MACHIERNY PETE USUSALLY SEES WHEN APRIL AND SEPTEMBER  USUALLY MARK SOFTNESS TO EQUIPMENT MARKET.   "IT'S BEEN FASCINATING. END OF JUNE, EARLY JULY  WITH ALL THE NEGATIVIEY, COMMODITY PRICES FALLING, TRADE WAR STUFF,  AND THEN SOME WEATHER ISSUES, YOU WOULD THINK USED VALUES  WOULD BE FALLING, WHEN IN FACT WE ARE SEEING THE OPPOSITE." HE SAYS THAT'S REVEALED THROUGH SALES AT THE  DEALERSHIP AND SALES AT AUCTION.  THE ASSOCIAITON OF EQUIPMENT MANUFACTURERS   SHOWING 4 WHEEL DRIVE TRACTOR SALES UP 5  PERCENT THIS YEAR AND COMBINE SALES JUMPING 20  PERCENT.   "YEAH, I'VE BEEN SEEING IT SINCE NOVERMBER  2017.  "I'M NOT SURPSIED TO SEE COMBINS UP 20  PERCENT BECAUSE ON USED VALUES COMBINES HAVE BEEN VERY  STRONG SINCE THE END OF 17" 4 RIVERS SAYS LOCAL INTEREST IS FROM SOME  PRODUCERS MOVING AWAY FROM USING CUSTOM  HARVESTERS. "WE'VE SEEN A 100 PERCENT INCREASE IN COMBINE SLAES IN  2018. THERE'S JUST A NUMBER F PRODUCRST GETTING BACK INTO IT  THEMSELVES WINBERG SAYS HE'S STARTING TO SEE MORE  PRODUCERS BECOME  TIMID ABOUT MAKING BIG  PURCHASES, BUT HE AND MACHNERY PETE BOTH SAY IT  HASN'T IMPACTED SALES YET.  "I THOUGHT HONTESTY THERE WOULD BE SOME  IMPACT TO THIS POINT IN JULY THERE HASN'T BEEN ANY EFFECT" ONE AREA EXPLOSING IN POPULARITY IS THE COMPACT  TRACTOR MARKET.  - "UNDER 40 HORSE, THE SEARCH DEMAND THERE  HAS BEEN OFF THE CHARTS,  4 RIVERS SAYS THEIR DEALERSHIP HAS TRADITIONALLY  BEEN RELIANT UPON LARGE AG EQUIPMENT, BUT THE  TIDES ARE TURNING.   "HE SECTOR THAT'S EXPLODING IN OUR AREA IS THE  COMPACT EQUIPMENT BUSINESS.  18:06:46-18:06:54- I THINK WE HAVE GROWN ABOVE 50 PERCENT. DID YOU EXPECT THAT? NO. I DIDN'T EXPECT THAT MUCH GROWTH IN THAT  SEGMENT" IT'S A REVENUS STREAM THAT'S UNFAMILIAR TO 4  RIVERS, BUT ONE THEY ARE LEARNING AND GROWING  ALONG WITH THE NEW DEMAND.  "THERE'S APPROXIMATELY 1800 NEW HOMES A  MONTH BEING BUILT IN COLORADOD. AND THAT'S PRODUCING SUCH A HUGE DEMAND FOR THE SMALL EQUIPMENT" AS MORE HOMES ARE BUILT, IT'S TURNING UP THE HEAT FOR COMPETITION OVER LAND, ENCOURAGING LOCAL  PRODUCERS TO BECOME EVEN MORE EFFICIENT.   "WE'VE GONE AS FAR AS OUR TRACTOR WORK WE  DON'T GO ACROSS THE FIELD AS MANY TIMES, WE STRIP TILL, LESS  CULTINATION, AND WE'RE APPLYING FERTILIZER NOW THROUGH THE PIVOTS  SO WE DON'T HAVE TO MAKE ANOTHER PASS THROUGH THE FIELD"  "WE'R EMORE ACCURATE AND WE RE' DOING MORE  WITH LESS. AND THAT'S WHAT OF THE THINGS IN TODAY'S DAY AND AGE IN  AGRICULTURE- ESPECIALLY IN COLRADO, ESPECIALLY ON THE FRONT-RANGE-  WE'RE CONSTANTLY TASKED WITH DOING MORE WITH LESS. THAT'S ONE OF  THE THINGS THAT THIS TECHNOLOGY AHS AFFORDED UST HE OPPORTUNITY TO  DO" IT'S EFFICIENCY SHOWING UP IN EQUIPMENT, EVEN AS FARMERS BECOME MORE DIVERSE. "IT'S LIKE A FLY FISHERMAN'S TACKLEBOX,  COMOPARED TO A GUY WHO USES A HOOK AND A WORM, I MEAN THEY  BOTH WILL CATCH A FISH, BUT WE'RE FISHING FOR A DIFFERENT KIND OF FISH" DIVERSITY THAT'S HELPING LOCAL PRODUCERS  THRIVE…  "IF MY SON AND GRANDSONS, I HAVE TWO SONS,  AND IF THEY WANT TO FARM, I'D LIKE TO GIVE THEM THAT OPPORTUNITY TO FARM"  AS THE RANGE OF CHANGE CREATE MOUNTAINS OF  OPPORTUNITY.  

TEASE
NEXT MONTH WE'RE ON THE ROAD WITH MACHINERY PETE TO CLOVIS, NEW MEXICO.  WHEN WE COME BACK, JOHN PHIPPS HAS THIS WEEK'S CUSTOMER SUPPORT. PLEASE, STAY WITH US. 

CUSTOMER SUPPORT
AUTOMATION IS HELPING SOME FARMERS BECOME EVEN MORE EFFICIENT. BUT IT AUTOMATION ALWAYS A  GOOD THING? JOHN PHIPPS TACKLES THE TOPIC IN THIS  WEEK'S CUSTOMER SUPPORT.  DAVID FENN IN CURTIS, WASHINGTON RAISES A POINT ABOUT  AUTOMATION: "AUTOMATION MAY BE A 'PROBLEM' FOR JOB CREATION, EXCEPT SOMEONE HAS TO BUILD THE ROBOTS AND MAINTAIN THEM.  THEY ARE MACHINES, SO I GUARANTEE THEY WILL MALFUNCTION OR BREAK AT SOME  POINT." YOUR POINT IS WELL TAKEN. ALTHOUGH JOBS LOST TO AUTOMATION ARE EASY TO PINPOINT, THE CREATION OF NEW JOBS AS A RESULT ARE HARD TO  LINK WITH THOSE LOST JOBS. WHILE THE BELIEF AUTOMATION CREATES  MORE JOBS THAT IT DESTROYS IS SHARED BY MANY ECONOMISTS, IT ACTUALLY IS A DUBIOUS SIMPLIFICATION. USUALLY IT IS BASED ON LOOKING  AT THE ECONOMY AS A WHOLE, WHERE AUTOMATION HAS ELIMINATED  MANY JOBS, BUT MEANWHILE THERE ARE MORE JOBS THAN EVER. I SUPPOSE THAT COULD PROVE THE ASSERTION, BUT WHAT WE ARE  BEGINNING TO SEE IS THAT AUTOMATION, AND NOW ARTIFICIAL  INTELLIGENCE (AI) SOFTWARE, ARE NOT DESTROYING AND CREATING THE  SAME KINDS OF JOBS. THERE APPEARS TO BE A HOLLOWING OUT OF JOBS  IN THE MIDDLE. THE EXAMPLE OF ROBOTS ILLUSTRATES THIS. A ROBOT  MILKER, FOR EXAMPLE, DISPLACES FARM WORKERS, BUT ADDS MORE SKILLED JOBS IN A FACTORY OR URBAN CENTER. THE INFERENCE THAT  WORKERS COULD MIGRATE FROM ONE TO THE OTHER IS DOUBTFUL. ONE  RULE OF THUMB BEING USED IS IF YOUR JOB IS REPETITIVE, ROUTINE, AND REQUIRES LITTLE CONTACT WITH PEOPLE, YOUR OCCUPATION IS AT RISK. BUT  KNOWLEDGE WORKERS AREN'T SAFE EITHER. PARALEGALS, TAX PREPARERS,  AND STOCK BROKERS ARE EXAMPLES OF ENDANGERED CAREERS. MEANWHILE, ECONOMISTS EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF NEW JOBS TO BE  LOW WAGE AND CITE AS EVIDENCE THE STAGNATION IN REAL AVERAGE  WAGES. FURTHER COMPLICATING THIS PICTURE IS THE NOW COMMON SITUATION WHERE SEEMINGLY OVER-QUALIFIED COLLEGE GRADUATES ARE  COMPETING FOR WHAT USED TO BE  MID-LEVEL JOBS DUE TO INABILITY TO  FIND A JOB IN THEIR EDUCATION AREA. AGRICULTURE HAS LARGE AREAS THAT COULD BE CHANGED BY AUTOMATION AND AI. EVEN IF WE ASSUME MORE JOBS WILL BE CREATED  AS A RESULT, IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE HOW THEY WILL REPLACE THE RURAL  JOBS OR LIFT RURAL COMMUNITIES. THE MORAL IS TO NOT TALK ABOUT JOBS  LIKE THEY ARE A COMMODITY. THEY ARE BASKET OF THOUSANDS OF  UNIQUE ECONOMIC TRANSACTIONS FOR LABOR AND DO INTERCHANGE EASILY. THANKS, JOHN. IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS CONTACT  JOHN AT MAILBAG AT U-S FARM REPORT DOT COM.  NEXT UP, DRYNESS CONTINUES TO PLAGUE TEXAS.  FROM TEH FARM IS NEXT.  

FROM THE FARM
WELCOME BACK. WELL WHAT HAPPENS WHEN BEANS ARE $8 AND  DROUGHT/HIGH HEAT ZAPS ALL HOPES OF A BOUNTIFUL  BEAN CROP THIS YEAR? WELL, IN NORTH TEXAS, YOU  BALE THE CROP FOR HAY. THE HEAT HAS BEEN  RUTHLESS LATELY.. TRIPLE DIGIT/ RECORD BREAKING   TEMPS FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS. STANTON SAID IT WAS EITHER BANK ON RAIN- WHICH ISN'T IN THE FORECAST-  OR GO AHEAD AND BAIL THE CROP BEFORE ITS TOAST.  SPEAKING OF DROUGHT AND TEXAS, LINDSAY KIMBRELL  CAPTURED THESE PICTURES OF CORN HARVEST THIS  YEAR. BUT SHE SAYS IT'S NOT AS BOUNTIFUL AS LAST  YEAR. THEY DIDN'T HAVE MUCH RAIN THIS YEAR. THE CURRENT U-S DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS 75 PERCENT  OF TEXAS IS SEEING DRYNESS... AND MORE THAN HALF   IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT.  IF YOU HAVE A PICTURE OF VIDEO YOU'D LIKE TO SEND  IN, SEND THOSE TO MAILBAG-AT-U-S-FARM-REPORT-DOT- COM OR CHECK US OUT ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER. 

CLOSE
FROM ALL OF US AT U.S. FARM REPORT, I'M MIKE HOFFMAN.  AND I'M TYNE MORGAN.  THANK YOU FOR WATCHING U-S FARM REPORT.  BE  SURE TO JOIN US RIGHT HERE AGAIN NEXT WEEK, AS  WE WORK TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION. HAVE A GREAT  WEEKEND, EVERYONE.  

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Corn College TV Education Series

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Get nearly 8 hours of educational video with Farm Journal's top agronomists. Produced in the field and neatly organized by topic, from spring prep to post-harvest. Order now!

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