USFR Weekly Recap - July 7-8, 2018

July 7, 2018 03:30 AM
 

TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
JULY 7-8, 2018

HEADLINES

WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS IN FOR TYNE MORGAN, TODAY ON THE SHOW...TRADE WAR--THE U.S. AND CHINA ROLL OUT TARIFFS.U.S. PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP:THE WAR WAS LOST ON TRADE MANY YEARS AGO.THE WAR WAS LOST, BUT NOW WE'RE GOING TO WIN IT AND BECAUSE WE HAVE ALL THE CARDS."SUMMER HEAT HANGS AROUNDAS TYNE TALKS LONG TERM WEATHER OUTLOOKS AT A SPECIAL METEOROLOGIST ROUNDTABLE.WHILE PARTS OF THE MIDWEST FACE FLOODING FROM SUMMER RAINS."UNDER WATER BETWEEN THE BOYS AND I IS LIKE 400 ACRES."AND JOHN PHIPPS.. OIL MONEY IN AGRICULTURE

NEWS
NOW FOR THE NEWS THAT MOVED THE MARKETS THIS WEEK...AND IT'S ALL ABOUT TRADE.THE U.S. AND CHINA STEPPING SQUARELY INTO A TARIFF STANDOFF AS TRADERS DIGEST WHETHER TWO OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST ECONOMIES ARE HEADED FOR AN ALL OUT TRADE WAR.ALL EYES ARE ON THE SOYBEAN MARKET  AS CHINA - THE WORLD'S LARGEST SOYBEAN BUYER SLAPPED TARIFFS ON U.S. PRODUCTS, INCLUDING SOY FRIDAY  CONTINUING THE BACK AND FOURTH TRADE DISPUTE BETWEEN TWO OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST ECONOMIES. ON FRIDAY THE UNITED STATES PLACING DUTIES OF 25 PERCENT ON 34 BILLION DOLLARS WORTH OF PRODUCTS. CHINA IS ACCUSING THE U.S. OF VIOLATING WTO RULES AND SETTING OFF QUOTE "THE LARGEST TRADE WAR IN ECONOMIC HISTORY TO DATE." BEIJING SLAPPING RIGHT BACK WITH LEVIES ON AN EQUAL AMOUNT OF AMERICAN GOODS, INCLUDING SOYBEANS, CORN, PORK AND POULTRY. PRESIDENT TRUMP RESPONDING THAT HE COULD BE COMPELLED TO HIT CHINA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF DUTIES--THE ADMINISTRATION ALREADY PLANNING 16-BILLION DOLLARS MORE AND THREATENED TO ESCALATE THAT TO 500 BILLION DOLLARS. ANALYSTS ARE NOW WATCHING TO SEE IF CHINESE OFFICIALS ARE ABLE TO PERSUADE OTHER COUNTRIES TO THEIR SIDE."IF A TOTAL GLOBAL TRADE WAR BREAKS OUT, IF THE EU GETS INCLUDED AND WE SEE A LOT OF TIT-FOR-TAT, THE CHINESE HAVE CONCLUDED THAT IT MIGHT DROP GLOBAL TRADE WORTH 70 PERCENT, AND THAT WILL AFFECT NOT ONLY THE ECONOMY BUT IT WILL ALSO AFFECT NATIONAL SECURITY. BECAUSE CHINA NEEDS ENERGY, THEY NEED FOOD, AND THEY'RE DOING DOMESTIC REFORMS NOW TO BECOME MORE DEPENDENT ON GLOBAL MARKETS. THAT'S WHY YOU'LL SEE A MUCH MORE ACTIVE CHINESE FOREIGN POLICY AND BACKING OF A MULTILATERAL SYSTEM. IT MIGHT NOT BE THE SAME AS WHAT WE SEE TODAY.” EARLY FRIDAY--FOLLOWING THE TARIFF ANNOUNCEMENT SOYBEAN FUTURES SAW LITTLE REACTION. THAT FOLLOWS A BLOOMBERG REPORT THAT CHINESE COMPANIES ARE PREPARING TO CANCEL MOST OF THE REMAINING SOYBEANS THEY COMMITTED TO BUY FROM THE U.S. THROUGH THE END OF AUGUST. USDA SAYS CHINA HAS YET TO TAKE DELIVERY OF ABOUT 1.14 MILLION METRIC TONS OF U.S. BEANS THIS MARKETING YEAR."WE SOLD CHINA NEAR 1.2 BILLION BUSHELS OF SOYBEANS LAST YEAR. THAT WAS 27 PERCENT OF ALL THE BEANS WE PRODUCED IN THIS COUNTRY. THEIR RESTRICTIONS ARE REALLY GOING TO HAVE AN IMPACT." TO THE SOUTH, MEXICO ALSO PLACING ITS SECOND  ROUND OF TARIFFS ON ALMOST 3 BILLION DOLLARS WORTH OF U.S. GOODS - IN RESPONSE TO PRESIDENT TRUMP'S TARIFFS ON STEEL AND ALUMINUM. THE LIST TARGETS U.S. AG GOODS SUCH AS APPLES, CHEESE AND ORANGE JUICE. THE SECOND WAVE ALSO INCLUDES ADDITIONAL TARIFFS ON U.S. PORK PRODUCTS. WE HAVE RECORD PORK PRODUCTION IN THIS COUNTRY. WE HAVE FIVE NEW PLANTS OVER A 2 YEAR PERIOD COMING ON STREAM AND WHY? BECAUSE OF TRADE. MOST OF THE OPPORTUNITIES ARE OUTSIDE OF THE U.S. 22 (TAKE OUT MIDDLE) 30 WE HAVE A RECORD AMOUNT OF PORK AND NOW WE'RE BEING SQUEEZED. IT'S A DIFFICULT SITUATION TO BE IN. MOST OF THE PRODUCTS DURING THIS SECOND WAVE WILL SEE TARIFFS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT. MEANWHILE FOLLOWING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, MEXICO'S NEW NAFTA NEGOTIATOR SEES MOMENTUM RISING FORNEGOTIATIONS. ACCORDING TO REUTERS, THE INCOMING CHIEF NEGOTIATOR, SAYS QUOTE "WE ARE BASICALLY SUPPORTING WHAT MEXICO HAS BEEN PUTTING FORWARD."  HE SAYS HE HAS IDEAS ON HOW TO IMPROVE THE DEAL FOR THE U.S. WITHOUT HURTING MEXICO. HOWEVER, HE DID NOT PROVIDE ANY DETAILS. NAFTA NEGOTIATORS SAID THIS MONTH THEY EXPECT NEGOTIATIONS TO RESUME FOLLOWING MEXICO'S ELECTIONS.AG SECRETARY SONNY PERDUE ALSO TALKING NAFTA ON A RECENT TROUGH OF THE NORTHWEST. HE SAYS HE'S HOPEFUL THAT A NEW AGREEMENT CAN BE REACHED WITH MEXICO VERY SOON. ADDING THAT MANY OF THE AGREEMENTS ARE READY TO GO. THEN THEY'LL BE TURNING TO CANADA TO RESOLVE THE FINAL ISSUESEVEN AS TRADE TENSIONS ESCALATE, AG PRODUCERS WERE MORE OPTIMISTIC IN JUNE. THAT'S ACCORDING TO THE LAST PURDUE CME AG ECONOMY BAROMETER.THE NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 400 AG PRODUCERS SAW THE INDEX RISING TO 143 IN JUNE. THAT'S JUST A COUPLE POINTS HIGHER THAN MAY. MUCH OF THAT GAIN DRIVEN BY A POSITIVE OUTLOOK ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.  THE STRENGTH OF BAROMETER SURPRISING RESEARCHERS AS JUNE WITNESSED SOYBEAN PRICES FALL ROUGHLY 15 PERCENT...TRADING THIS WEEK TO THEIR LOWEST POINT IN A DECADE. AND RECENT A WALL STREET JOURNAL ARTICLE SAYS THE TOTAL VALUE OF THIS YEAR'S U.S. CORN, SOYBEAN AND WHEAT CROPS FELL BY 13-BILLION DOLLARS IN JUNE. THE INCREASE IN THE BAROMETER WAS DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE CURRENT CONDITIONS INDEX THAT INDEX ROSE FROM 132 IN MAY TO 138 IN JUNE. AND WE THINK THAT WAS PROBABLY DRIVEN BY A COUPLE OF FACTORS. ONE WAS THE FACT THAT UNTIL VERY LATE MAY THE PRODUCERS WERE ABLE TO SELL CORN AND SOYBEANS AT REASONABLY GOOD PRICES IN THE CASE OF SOYBEANS NEAR TEN DOLLARS A BUSHEL IN THE CASE OF CORN FOUR DOLLARS A BUSHEL. THAT GAVE PEOPLE SOME REASON FOR OPTIMISM UNTIL THAT LATE MAY OR EARLY JUNE TIMEFRAME. THE SECOND THING WAS THE IMPROVEMENT IN CROP GROWING CONDITIONS THAT TOOK PLACE IN JUNE.MINTERT SAYS THEY DID SEE A RISE IN UNCERTAINTY THIS MONTH. ONE OF THE QUESTIONS ASKED TO PRODUCERS IS WHETHER THEY EXPECT GOOD TIMES, BAD TIMES OR NEUTRAL FOR AGRICULTURE IN THE YEAR AHEAD. HE SAYS THE PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS IN THE NEUTRAL CATEGORY DOUBLED IN THE LAST MONTH.ALSO IN WASHINGTON, THE PRESIDENT TWEETING LATE THURSDAY THAT EPA ADMINISTRATOR SCOTT PRUITT HAS RESIGNED. THE PRESIDENT ANNOUNCING THE NEWS VIA TWITTER. SAYING QUOTE, "WITHIN THE AGENCY SCOTT HAS DONE AN OUTSTANDING JOB AND I WILL ALWAYS BE THANKFUL TO HIM FOR THIS. PRESIDENT TRUMP SAYS THE SENATE HAS CONFIRMED EPA DEPUTY ANDREW WHEELER WILL ASSUME PRUITT'S ROLL ON MONDAY." PRUITT'S TENURE AT EPA HAS BEEN TWO SIDED. UNDER HIS LEADERHSIP THE AGENCY SOUGHT TO ROLL BACK THE WATERS OF THE U.S. RULE. BUT RECENTLY RFS WAIVERS AND QUESTIONABLE SPENDING HAS MADE HIM A TARGET ON CAPITOL HILL. WHEELER HAS SPENT TIME DURING HIS CAREER AT EPA-- HE'S ALSO A FORMER LOBBYIST FOR THE COAL INDUSTRY AND A FORMER WORKER AT GROWTH ENERGY.


TEASE
WHEN WE COME BACK, WE'LL CHECK ON WEATHER AND THEN TYNE MORGAN CONTINUES THE WEATHER CONVERSATION WITH MIKE HOFFMAN AND USDA METEOROLIGIST BRAD RIPPY.

WEATHER
METEOROLOGIST CINDI CLAWSON IS AT THE WEATHER WALL WHILE MIKE HOFFMAN GETS READY FOR A ROUND TABLE DISCUSSION.CINDY DOES THAT HEAT WAVE STICK WITH US THIS WEEK?YEAH. CLINTON IT LOOKS LIKE THAT HEAT IS GOING TO BE CONTINUING FOR A LOT OF THE COUNTRY AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK AND THAT IS NOT GOOD FOR THE DROUGHT SITUATION. HERE IS THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR. AND WE'RE CONTINUING TO SEE THE DROUGHT EXPAND IN MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. IT'S STILL REALLY BAD IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE WE'RE SEEING MANY AREAS IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT. WE'RE EVEN SEEING THE DROUGHT EXPANDING IN PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST. TAKE A LOOK AT HOW IT'S PROGRESSED OVER THE LAST MONTH AND AS WE PUT THIS INTO MOTION YOU CAN SEE HOW IT EXPANDS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF MISSOURI AND NOW GETTING INTO ARKANSAS LOUISIANA A LITTLE BIT FURTHER AND WE ARE SEEING THAT EXPANDED IN THE NORTHEAST MORE WATSON SOME OF THE NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES AS WELL. NOW AS WE HEAD INTO OUR JETSTREAM GET BIG RIDGE THAT'S GOING TO BE AFFECTING A LOT OF THE COUNTRY AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS WEEK AS THOSE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE. AND MOST OF THAT COLD AIR IS GOING TO BE STICKING AROUND IN CANADA AS WE GET TOWARDS THE WEEKEND WILL FINALLY START TO SEE MAYBE A LITTLE BIT OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE BRINGING MAYBE SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES AS WE SEE PERHAPS A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATER ON IN NEXT WEEKEND. ALL RIGHT. AS WE START OFF YOUR WEEK THOUGH ON MONDAY WE'RE GOING TO SEE A COLD FRONT BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST SOUTHEAST YOU'VE GOT A STATIONARY BOUNDARY THERE.SO YOU'RE GOING TO BE SEEING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THAT GOES FOR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS WELL. YOU GOT A LITTLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE GOING ON THERE. LOW PRESSURE IN PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE. BUT NOTICE THE WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING FOR A LOT OF THE NATION'S MIDSECTION HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY WARM HOT HOT YET YOU NAME IT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST THAT UNSETTLED KIND OF AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY HEAT AND HUMIDITY BRING IN THOSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST. BUT WE DO HAVE A COLD FRONT THAT'S GOING TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. THAT'S GOING TO BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE AND SOME MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHWEST. FRIDAY WE'RE LOOKING AT THAT COLD FRONT TO BE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES HOURS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO THE SOUTHEAST. WARM FRONT STRETCHING UP INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST LOOK FOR SOME SHOWERS MAYBE SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER THERE AND SOME CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST FOR OUR FRIDAY THE 13TH. NOW LOOKING A LITTLE FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE UNFORTUNATELY CLINTON THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND MOST OF THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE UNITED STATES AS WELL. LOOKS LIKE THE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE SOUTH EAST AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS CONCERNED OVER THE NEXT 30 DAYS A LITTLE ON THE WET SIDE IN THE SOUTHEAST. THIS ISN'T SOME BAD NEWS BUT WE'RE WE'RE LONG WAY FROM GETTING OUT OF DROUGHT IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. BUT IT'S THAT TIME OF THE YEAR WHERE WE SEE THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE

TEASE
WE DON'T LIKE TO SEE THIS THE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION THAT GOES RIGHT UP THROUGH MOST OF THE PLAINS STATES. THAT'S A LOOK AT YOUR NATIONAL FORECAST. CLINTON NOW BACK TO YOU.

ROUNDTABLE 1
WELCOME BACK. WELL SWITCHING UP OUR MARKETING ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSION THIS WEEK IT'S BEEN A COUPLE YEARS SINCE WE'VE HAD THIS DYNAMIC DUO ON OUR PANEL. BUT TO METEOROLOGISTS TO TALK ABOUT THE WEATHER SINCE WE ARE FOCUSING SO MUCH ON THE WEATHER RIGHT NOW SO WE HAVE OUR OWN METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN OF COURSE AS WELL AS USDA METEOROLOGIST BRAD RIPPEY WHO'S A FRIEND OF THE SHOW. THANK YOU FOR TRAVELING OUT. THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME. WELL WE'VE TALKED A LOT ABOUT THE HEAT THIS YEAR. AND I MEAN YOU LOOK AT MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND EVEN YOU KNOW SOME WEEKENDS IN JUNE. WE SAW SOME RECORD TEMPERATURES. WE'RE COMING OFF THE WARMEST MAY ON RECORD. DO YOU THINK THAT HEAT CONTINUES BRAD? IN TERMS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES,YES WE ARE GOING TO SEE THAT CONTINUE, WE'VE SEEN IT CONTINUE THROUGH JUNE, AND I THINK WE'LL SEE THAT PREDOMINANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SUMMER. WHEN'S THE LAST TIME WE HAD A RECORD WARMTH IN MAY? WHEN WAS THE LAST YEAR? 2012 BEFORE THAT THE RECORDS WERE SET 1934 AND 1936. THOSE THREE YEARS SHOULD SCARE YOU, BECAUSE THEY WERE ALL DROUGHT YEARS. BUT IT'S BEEN DIFFERENT THIS YEAR. WE'VE HAD MOISTURE. WE'VE HAD A LOT OF MOISTURE IN MANY PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. BRAD MENTIONED 2012 AND OF COURSE THAT DOES SCARE A LOT OF PRODUCERS OUT THERE BUT HE'S RIGHT. WE'VE SEEN THOSE HINTS OF RAIN. WE'VE SEEN RAIN IN DIFFERENT AREAS THAT DID NOT HAVE THAT MOISTURE IN 2012. AND SO DO YOU THINK THAT THIS HE CONTINUES AND IF SO WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR US. WELL I THINK IT MEANS HIGHER NIGHTTIME LOWS, BUT PROBABLY LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS IN A LOT OF CASES BECAUSE ANYTIME YOU ADD MOISTURE TO THE ATMOSPHERE IT KIND OF MAKES IT MAKES IT TOUGH TO GET VERY COOL AT NIGHT, NUMBER ONE, BUT IT ALSO KEEPS IT FROM GETTING QUITE AS HOT. WHEN YOU GET DROUGHT, THAT'S WHEN YOU GET THE REALLY HIGH HOT TEMPERATURES. AND BRAD MIKE BRINGS UP AN INTERESTING POINT BECAUSE RIGHT NOW WHEN WE LOOK AT TASSELING WE KNOW SOME CROPS ALREADY TASSELING WE GO INTO JULY THAT'S A COOL TIMEFRAME. YOU KNOW FARMERS DON'T WANT TO SEE THOSE MILD NIGHTS. THEY DON'T WANT TO SEE THOSE WARM NIGHTS BUT THAT'S WHAT WE'RE EXPERIENCING RIGHT. AND WE HAD ALMOST TWO THIRDS OF THE CORN AND SOYBEANS PLANTED WITHIN A THREE WEEK WINDOW: CORN THREE WEEKS ENDING MAY 20TH, SOYBEANS THREE WEEKS ENDING MAY 27. SO WE'RE GOING TO SEE A PRETTY BUNCHED PERIOD OF TIME, I THINK, WHEN THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CORN AND SOYBEANS MOVING THROUGH REPRODUCTION. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TIMING OF HEAT WAVES DURING THAT TIME AND WHETHER WE GET THOSE VERY HIGH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES THAT COULD RESULT IN A PROBLEM WITH THE CROP QUALITY. SO WHEN'S THE LAST TIME THAT WE SAW A YEAR LIKE THIS SO WHEN'S THE LAST TIME THAT WE SAW A YEAR LIKE THIS AND MIKE I KNOW I'VE HEARD YOU MENTIONED 1995 AS WELL. WELL BACK IN THE EARLY SPRING, YOU CAME TO ME AND SAID NOW A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE TALKING ABOUT 2012 RIGHT DROUGHT, BUT BRAD RIPPEY IS NOT. AND I SAID SO WHAT YEAR IS HE LOOKING AT. AND YOU SAID 95 96. SO THAT'S ONE OF THE YEARS THAT I'M LOOKING AT AS WELL. AND I LOOK I DON'T LOOK AT THE MODELS THAT MUCH I GUESS WHEN I TRY TO COME UP WITH MY FORECAST BUT I'M LOOKING AT MORE OF THE OCEAN SET UP IN PREVIOUS YEARS THAT HAD SIMILAR WEATHER ACROSS THE COUNTRY, AND SO WE WERE LOOKING AT SIMILAR YEARS, AND I KNOW ONCE YOU SAID THAT IT MADE ME FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE GOING AWAY FROM WHAT EVERYBODY ELSE WAS SAYING BECAUSE IT BECAUSE BRAD WAS KIND OF THINKING THE SAME THING. SO BRAD IN 1995 1996 HOW DID OUR CROPS END UP IF WE HAD THOSE MILD TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT? FOR THE MIDWEST, WE DID REASONABLY WELL WE HAD PLENTY OF RAIN THAT YEAR AND WE DIDN'T HAVE HEAT COINCIDING WITH CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT STAGES, SO WE CAME OUT OKAY. THE OTHER SIMILARITY IN 95 96 WAS THAT PUNISHING SPRING AND EARLY SUMMER DROUGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY AND WE'VE GOT THAT AGAIN THIS YEAR. SPEAKING OF DROUGHT THOSE FARMERS ARE STILL FACING THAT DROUGHT IN TEXAS OKLAHOMA AND THOSE AREAS WANTING SOME REPRIEVE WANTING SOME RELIEF. DO YOU THINK THAT HAPPENS. DO WE SEE THAT DROUGHT IMPROVE.  I THINK WE'RE BOTH AGREEING THAT WE'RE GOING TO HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD MONSOON SEASON THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. FOR THOSE OF YOU IN THE MIDWEST THE MONSOON IS JUST THE TIME OF YEAR WHERE THEY GET MOST OF THEIR RAIN IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BUT NOT NECESSARILY BIG MONSOONS COMING IN.  BUT YOU GET THE POP UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GOING TO BE A LOT OF PACIFIC MOISTURE I THINK INVOLVED IN THE PATTERN THIS YEAR. DO YOU AGREE WITH THAT. I AGREE. AND WE'VE ALREADY SEEN A COUPLE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES FROM THE PACIFIC BUT AND CARLOTTO PRODUCING MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHWEST AT AN UNUSUAL TIME OF YEAR. HOPEFULLY THAT'S A HINT OF SOME OF THE MOISTURE TO COME FOR THE SOUTHWEST WHEN WE GET INTO THE FULL FLEDGED MONSOON SEASON IN JULY AND AUGUST HENCE. BUT WE STILL HAVE A LONG WAY TO GO TO MAKE UP FOR THE SHORTFALL MOISTURE THAT WE'VE HAD AND WE'VE CAUGHT. AND WE HAVE THESE OTHER CROPS IN THE GROUND IN THESE TEXAS PRODUCERS ARE SAYING WE DON'T EVEN KNOW IF WE'RE GOING TO MAKE A CROP THIS YEAR. THAT'S THE OTHER BIG PROBLEM FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE TWO THINGS WE HAVE WORKING AGAINST US ARE THESE CONTINUING ELEVATED TEMPERATURES AND THE FACT THAT SO MOISTURE IS SO SHORT HEADING INTO THE GROWING SEASON. SO EVERY AVAILABLE DROP OF MOISTURE THAT'S STARTING TO FALL IS GOING IN TO THE CROPS THE PASTURES THE RANGE LANDS. THERE'S NO MARGIN FOR ERROR. WE SEE FAIRLY LOW COST AND MISSIONS AT THIS POINT EARLY IN THE SEASON. SO WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO PICK UP THOSE REINS EVEN FURTHER TO BRING THE CROPS BACK AROUND. ALL RIGHT. WELL DOES EL NINO MAKE A COMEBACK THIS YEAR AND WHAT WOULD THAT MEAN FOR PRODUCERS OUT THERE. WE'LL TALK ABOUT THAT LATER HERE ON U.S. FARM REPORT.

JOHN’S WORLD
BUT AS JOHN PHIPPS TELLS IT...FARM INCOME AND BIG OIL AREN'T NECESSARILY EXCLUSIVE OF EACH OTHER.I LOVE THE ERS – THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE – AT THE USDA. WHILE THEY WORK PAINFULLY SLOWLY BY 21ST CENTURY STANDARDS, THEY CRANK OUT SOME TRULY REVEALING INSIGHTS INTO THE FARM ECONOMY, ALBEIT USUALLY TOO LATE TO HELP POLICY MAKERS. FOR EXAMPLE, LAST WEEK THEY RELEASED A LITTLE GEM ABOUT HOW ROYALTIES FROM THE FRACKING OIL BOOM WERE AFFECTING FARM INCOME. IN 2014, OF COURSE.IT WAS NEWS TO ME THAT ROYALTIES FROM OIL EXTRACTED ON FARMLAND WERE INCLUDED IN FARM INCOME, BUT SINCE I DON'T HAVE ANY WELLS, I'VE NEVER ASKED TURBOTAX WHERE TO REPORT THE INCOME. HERE ARE SOME FACTS FROM THAT REPORT THAT RAISED MY EYEBROWS:1 IN 2014, OIL AND GAS ROYALTIES ADDED $7.4B TO NET FARM CASH INCOME. 2 THAT YEAR, NET FARM INCOME WAS ABOUT $90B, SO OIL CONTRIBUTED AROUND 8%. 3 IN PENNSYLVANIA, OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS, ABOUT 30 PERCENT OF THE STATE FARM INCOME WAS FROM OIL. 4 I TRIED FOR SEVERAL MINUTES TO FIND NET FARM CASH INCOME BY COMMODITY, SO I MADE SOME WILD ASSUMPTIONS TO ESTIMATE HOW IMPORTANT OIL IS TO OUR AG ECONOMY. SINCE ROYALTIES ARE ESSENTIALLY ALL PROFIT, AND USING A CRUDE 30% NET-TO-GROSS ESTIMATE, OIL AS A CROP WOULD BE IN THE BALLPARK WITH FRUITS AND MELONS, VEGETABLES, HOGS, FOOD GRAINS INCLUDING WHEAT, RICE AND RYE, OR BROILERS. BUT THIS ISN'T 2014. HOWEVER, WITH OIL PRICES IN THE BALLPARK OF 2014, AND ASSUMING ROYALTIES RISE AND FALL WITH OIL PRICES, AND WITH ESSENTIALLY THE SAME DOMESTIC PRODUCTION LEVEL, $7-8B ISN'T A BAD GUESS FOR THIS YEAR'S OIL PAYMENTS TO FARMERS. NOW IF YOU FACTOR IN THE WHOPPING DIFFERENCE IN NET FARM INCOME COMPARED TO 2014, OIL COULD BE ONE OF OUR MOST IMPORTANT CROPS, GENERATING 10 TO 12 PERCENT OF NET FARM INCOME ON AVERAGE FOR THE US. IN OIL COUNTIES AND STATES, IT COULD BE THE MOST LUCRATIVE CROP BY FAR. IN OTHER WORDS, A SIGNIFICANT PART OF BIG AG IS NOW BIG OIL. THANKS JOHN. WHEN WE COME BACK, MACHINERY PETE JOINS US WITH THIS WEEK'S TRACTOR TALES FROM AN INDIANA CLASS ROOM. WHERE CAN YOU TALK MARKETS TODAY? JOIN CHIP FLORY FIVE DAYS A WEEK FOR MARKET RALLY RADIO- ALL MARKETS, ALL THE TIME.

TRACTOR TALES
WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES FOLKS. THIS WEEK WE'RE GOING TO JOURNEY TO DELPHI INDIANA WHERE SOME LOCAL HIGH SCHOOLERS ARE WORKING TO PRESERVE SOME COOL FAMILY HISTORY. THE PROGRAM AT DELPHI ISN'T NEW BUT HERE IN INDIANA STUDENTS GET TO BRING THEIR FAMILIES TRACTORS IN AND GIVE THEM A FACELIFT. IT'S A PROGRAM THAT BENEFITS THE STUDENTS IN SCHOOL AND ON THE FARM. I HAVE A 1944 FARMALL H. IT WAS MY GREAT GRANDPAS. AND WHEN MY GRANDPA STARTED FARMING IT WAS PASSED DOWN. IT'S PRETTY MUCH LAST. FORTY YEARS OF HIS LIFE RAN SMALL AUGERS. WHEN WE HARVEST IT'S BEEN IN REALLY GOOD CONDITION IT'S BEEN KEPT IN A BARN ITS WHOLE LIFE AND I JUST FINALLY GOT TO PULL BACK OUT. I'M PLANNING ON RESTORING IT HERE AT DELPHI WE HAVE SEVERAL AG POWERS AND STRUCTURED MECHANICS CLASSES. WE START OUR KIDS OFF AS FRESHMEN AS A MANDATORY WELDING COURSE FOR MANY OF OUR STUDENTS THAT ARE RURAL OR FARM KIDS. THEY KIND OF DRIFT TOWARDS RESTORING TRACTORS BECAUSE OF THE FACILITIES THAT WE HAVE. WE HAVE RESTORED OVER 35 TRACTORS IN THE LAST NINE YEARS IN THIS SHOP. UNFORTUNATELY RIGHT NOW IT DOES NOT RUN WHICH IS WHY I HAD TO PULL IT HERE BUT HOPEFULLY I CAN CHANGE THAT. I'VE TAKEN THE HOOD OFF EVERYTHING AND WHEN I CLEANED IT AND I DIDN'T HAVE IT ON WHEN I CLEANED IT. I'VE PURCHASED A NEW BATTERY FOR IT. I'M WORKING ON GETTING A GASKET FOR THE FUEL SEDIMENT BOWL ALONG WITH A FEW MISCELLANEOUS OTHER PARTS AND HOPEFULLY I CAN GET TIRES FOR IT. EVERY ONE OF OUR STUDENTS IS AN FFAMEMBER. BUT WE ALSO TIE IN TO WITH TITAN TIRE TITAN HAS BEEN REALLY GOOD TO US AND OUR STUDENTS FOR GIVING TIRES TO THOSE PROJECTS. THANKS TO OUR AG PROGRAM AND MR. WALKER. WE CAN WE HAVE THE TECHNOLOGY WE CAN RESTORE ATTRACTORS. MY GOAL IS TO HAVE IT DONE BY THE TIME I THINK IT'S IN MARCH WHEN WE DO OUR OR AT LEAST HAVE IT RUNNING AND FULLY OPERATIONAL. WE HAVE A DRIVE YOUR TRACTORS SCHOOL DAY AND ONE OF MY FRIENDS WHO DOESN'T LIVE ON A FARM REALLY WANTS TO DRIVE IT BECAUSE I CAN DRIVE ONE OF OUR OTHERS SO IT WOULD BE NICE TO HAVE IT DONE BY EARLY MARCH OR LATE FEBRUARY. IT'S JUST KIND OF SENTIMENTAL VALUE ITS KIND OF A LINK BETWEEN LIKE MY ANCESTORS AND HOW WHY I'M FARMING.

TEASE
GOOD STUFF AND GOOD KIDS. ALRIGHT DON'T GO ANYWHERE. WE'LL TAKE A PEAK AT CROP CONDITIONS INCLUDING A LOOK AT ALL OF THAT RAIN IN THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CORN BELT.MORE US FARM REPORT-- AFTER THE BREAK.

CROP PROGRESS
WELCOME BACK TO U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS IN FOR TYNE MORGAN THIS WEEK. ON MONDAY WE'LL GET A FRESH CROP PROGRESS REPORT FROM USDA...BUT SO FAR PARTS OF FARM COUNTRY ARE LOOKING PRETTY GOOD.USDA SAYS 76 PERCENT OF THE NATION'S CORN CROP IS RATED GOOD TO EXCELLENT. THAT JUST A TICK LOWER THAN LAST WEEK. BUT 8 PERCENTAGE POINTS BETTER THAN LAST YEAR. 17 PERCENT OF THE CROP IS SILKING ABOUT DOUBLE THE FIVE YEAR AVERAGE. ON THE SOYBEAN SIDE, 71 PERCENT OF THE CROP IS RATED GOOD TO EXCELLENT. A COUPLE OF POINTS OFF LAST WEEK. THE FIVE YEAR AVERAGE IS 64 PERCENT.IN MISSOURI, WHERE THEY'VE BEEN DEALING WITH DROUGHT AND DRYNESS, JUST 48 PERCENT OF BEANS ARE RATED GOOD TO EXCELLENT. NATIONALLY 40 PERCENT OF THE CROP IS NOW BLOOMING THE NATION'S COTTON CROP CONTINUES TO FACE MIXED RESULTS. NATIONALLY 43 PERCENT IS RATED GOOD TO EXCELLENT.BUT ONLY A QUARTER OF THE TEXAS CROP IS THAT GOOD. WHILE ACROSS THE SOUTH THE RATINGS ARE IN THE 70'S OR 80'S. EVEN AS POCKETS OF THE CROP REMAIN IN GOOD CONDITION, PRICES CONTINUE TO HOLD BASED ON THE CHALLENGES IN TEXAS--THE NATION'S LARGEST COTTON PRODUCING STATE. IN TERMS OF TEXAS, I'M HEARING WITH THE RAINS THEY GOT IN WEST TEXAS, THEY CAME A LITTLE TOO LATE. A LOT OF THEM MAY BE ZEROING OUT WITH INSURANCE TEXAS IS NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET IN TERMS OF WEATHER. OF COURSE THE CROP ISNT' MADE IN JUNE, BUT THERE'S A LOT LEFT TO SEE THERE HANGING IN THE BALANCE IN TEXAS.12 PERCENT OF THE NATION'S COTTON CROP IS NOW SETTING  BOLLS...JUST AHEAD OF THE FIVE YEAR AVERAGE.USDA'S PLANTED ACREAGE REPORT SHOWS U-S FARMERS PLANTED TWO-POINT-EIGHT MILLION ACRES OF RICE THIS YEAR.  THAT'S UP ABOUT 400-THOUSAND ACRES FROM A YEAR AGO. ARKANSAS LEADS ALL STATES WITH ONE-POINT-THREE MILLION ACRES. MONDAY'S CROP PROGRESS REPORT FROM USDA SHOWS 71-PERCENT OF THE NATION'S RICE CROP IN GOOD TO EXCELLENT CONDITION.  ANOTHER QUARTER IS FAIR. ARKANSAS IS THE TOP RICE PRODUCER. 64-PERCENT IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT. RICE PRODUCERS IN LOUISIANA HAVE HAD THREE DIFFICULT GROWING SEASONS IN A ROW, BUT RIGHT NOW, THIS YEAR'S CROP IS LOOKING GOOD. I THINK THE YIELD POTENTIAL FOR THIS YEAR'S CROP IN LOUISIANA LOOKS VERY GOOD. A LOT BETTER THAN WHAT WE'VE FACED THE PAST THREE YEARS WHERE WE'VE SEEN SOME REAL CHALLENGES HERE IN LOUISIANA FOR THE MOST PART, WHAT I AM SEEING OUT THERE RIDING AROUND, NOT ONLY MINE, BUT A LOT OF THE OTHERS, IT'S GOOD. IT'S THICK. THE HEADS LOOK GOOD. SO WE COULD SEE A VERY, VERY GOOD CROP. MAY WAS DRY ACROSS LOUISIANA, SO PLANT DISEASES WERE NOT MUCH OF AN ISSUE. HOWEVER RAINS IN JUNE HAVE CAUSED AN UPTICK IN  DISEASE PRESSURE. LOUISIANA'S RICE CROP IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 420-THOUSAND ACRES THIS YEAR, A SLIGHT INCREASE FROM LAST YEAR.ACCORDING TO A NEW IOWA STATE SURVEY ON LAND OWNERSHIP, NEARLY 60 PERCENT OF FARMLAND IN THE STATE IS OWNED BY PEOPLE WHO DON'T ACTIVELY FARM. ABOUT A THIRD DON'T HAVE ANY FARMING EXPERIENCE AT ALL.A QUARTER OF OWNERS ARE RETIRED FARMERS ACCORDING TO I-S-U. THE FARMLAND OWNERSHIP TENURE SURVEY BASED ON 2012 TO 2017. A COUPLE OF OTHER NOTABLE STATS FROM THE SURVEY... EIGHTY-TWO PERCENT OF IOWA FARMLAND IS OWNED DEBT-FREE. THAT'S MUCH HIGHER THAN THE 62 PERCENT IN 1982 AND 78 PERCENT IN 2012. AND OWNERSHIP AGE IS ON THE RISE-- PEOPLE 65 YEARS OR OLDER OWN 60 PERCENT OF FARMLAND, TWICE THE LEVEL IN 1982. WHILE THOSE YOUNGER THAN 35--THEY OWN LESS THAN 2 PERCENT OF IOWA FARMLAND.IT'S BEEN FEAST OR FAMINE ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS YEAR. MOTHER NATURE DROPPED FROM FIVE TO 12 PLUS INCHES OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF IOWA, NEBRASKA, MINNESOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE RESULT HAS BEEN EXCESSIVE FLOODING, WIPING OUT HUNDREDS OF ACRES OF CROPLAND AND LEFT OTHER FIELDS WITH STANDING WATER. AS MICHELLE ROOK REPORTS FARMERS ARE NOW TRYING TO ACCESS CROP LOSS AND THE AMOUNT OF DENITRIFICATION OF FERTILIZER DUE TO THE DISASTER. FARMERS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORN BELT HAVE RECEIVED SOME NEAR RECORD RAINFALL IN JUNE. NINE TO 12 INCHES HAVE FALLEN NEAR CENTERVILLEWHERE THE VERMILLION RIVER HAS FLOODED ADJACENT CROPLAND, LEAVING LAKES WHERE CROPS ONCE STOOD."UNDERWATER, BETWEEN THE BOYS AND I, IT'S LIKE 400 ACRES." HOWEVER, HE SAYS THERE ARE ALSO MANY OTHER FIELDS WITH AREAS OF PONDING THAT WILL HAVE LOWER PRODUCTION POTENTIAL.ANDERSEN, "IMPACTED IT ALL WAS, BUT I MEAN AS FOR YIELD LOSS AND EVERYTHING, WE'LL PROBABLY SAY 25-PERCENT WITHOUT MUCH TROUBLE," SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA WERE ALSO HIT HARD, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FLOYD AND ROCK RIVERS. STEVE ABMA FARMS NEAR ROCK VALLEY, IOWA WHERE THEY'VE RECEIVED OVER A FOOT OF PRECIP IN A LITTLE OVER A WEEK."THIS IS THE SECOND WORST I'VE SEEN AND I'VE LIVED HERE ALL MY LIFE." AS A RESULT, HE AND AREA FARMERS NOW HAVE HUNDREDS OF ACRES OF CROPLAND UNDER WATER. ABMA, "THIS IS 80 ACRES HERE AND YOU'RE PROBABLY LOOKING AT HALF OF IT UNDER WATER AND THEN WHEN WE GO THE OTHER WAY WE'VE GOT ANOTHER 100-ACRE PIECE AND YET ANOTHER 100-ACRE PIECE BEHIND THAT THAT'S PROBABLY NEARLY TOTALLY UNDERWATER." SO THOSE ACRES WILL BE A COMPLETE LOSS AND MAY BE COVERED BY INSURANCE. THE OTHER LOSSES ARE UNCERTAIN.ANDERSEN, "INSURANCE WILL MAYBE COVER SOME OF IT. IT ALL DEPENDS ON HOW YOU GET IT STRUCTURED." "MYSELF I HAVE A 70 AND 75-PERCENT COVERAGE SO I'D HAVE TO LOSE 30-PERCENT OF MY CROP BEFORE ANYTHING WOULD HAPPEN." THE MAIN QUESTIONS FARMERS ARE ASKING NOW INCLUDE: HOW LONG CAN CROPS STAY SUBMERGED IN WATER BEFORE THEY DIE AND ONCE THE WATER RECEDES HOW MUCH NITROGEN WILL BE LOST?AGRONOMISTS SAY THE ANSWER TO THE FIRST QUESTION DEPENDS ON CROP STAGE, AIR TEMPERATURE AND THE NUMBER OF DAYS UNDER WATER.PIONEER FIELD AGRONOMIST CURT HOFFBECK SAYS, "TYPICALLY A COUPLE DAYS THEY'RE PROBABLY GOING TO SURVIVE REAL WELL. THE TALLER CORN COULD PROBABLY LAST THREE, FOUR, MAYBE UP TO FIVE DAYS, BUT IF IT'S REALLY HOT AND SUNNY AND ITS GOING TO WANT TO BAKE. YEAH YOU'RE PROBABLY LOOKING AT TWO TO FOUR DAYS ON AVERAGE." , "WE'VE SEEN DOCUMENTATION THAT YOU KNOW FIVE DAYS UP TO SEVEN DAYS SUBMERGED SOYBEANS CAN MAKE IT." THE BIG CHALLENGE WITH SOYBEANS IS AFTER THE WATER RECEDES THEY'RE REALLY PRONE TO DISEASES." THE OTHER ISSUE IS DENITRIFICATION, WHICH HOFFBECK SAYS VARIES AND MAKES IT HARD TO ESTIMATE YIELD LOSS."IF YOU'VE GOT SATURATED AREAS LIKE THIS IN A FIELD. EVERY DAY THAT THE FIELD IS SATURATED AND WATER LOGGED LIKE THIS YOU CAN PROBABLY EXPECT FIVE PERCENT OF YOUR NITROGEN LOSS." UNFORTUNATELY, IN AREAS WHERE THE CROP IS LOST EVEN IF THE WATER RECEDES THERE ARE VERY FEW REPLANT OPTIONS. I'M MICHELLE ROOK REPORTING FOR AGDAY.THANKS MICHELLE. ACCORDING TO LAST WEEK'S CROP CONDITION REPORT FROM USDA, CORN IN MINNESOTA IS HANGING TOUGH-- RATED 81 PERCENT GOOD TO EXCELLENT. IT WAS 65 PERCENT IN SOUTH DAKOTA. SO WILL THAT HEAT AND WET WEATHER STICK AROUND? WHAT ABOUT THIS FALL. MORE FROM OUR METEOROLOGIST ROUNDTABLE AFTER THE BREAK.

ROUNDTABLE 2
WELCOME BACK. WELL BEFORE WE TALK ABOUT THIS FALL AND THE POTENTIAL FORECAST FOR THIS COMING FALL WHEN YOU THROW AROUND A TERM THAT WAS CALLED DIRTY RIDGE AND IT KIND OF SEEMS ODD. BUT EXPLAIN WHAT THAT TERM MEANS AND HOW IT IS IMPACTING US TODAY. YOU KNOW I'VE GOT SOME EXPLAINING TO DO. ALL RIGHT. SO IN 2012 THE MEMORABLE DROUGHT YEAR WE HAD A RIDGE THAT WAS PARKED ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND MUCH OF THE NATION'S MIDSECTION ALL SUMMER LONG, IT WAS ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE ORIENTATION DID NOT ALLOW MUCH TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM, SO WE HAD THIS DRY HOT RIDGE PARKED RIGHT OVER THE MIDWEST. NOW THIS YEAR WE'VE HAD A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT RIDGE AS WELL. BUT IT'S BEEN ORIENTED MORE FROM THE FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST TO GET MY DIRECTION STRAIGHT. AND WITH THAT ORIENTATION WE'VE BEEN ABLE TO BRING IN MOISTURE FROM BOTH THE PACIFIC AND THE ATLANTIC INTO THE SYSTEM. SO WE CALL IT A DIRTY RIDGE. IT'S A RIDGE BUT IT'S NOT HOT DRY IT'S JUST HOT AND MOIST. WE'VE HAD A LOT OF RAIN SHOWERS CIRCLING AROUND THAT RIDGE ON ALL SIDES BRINGING RAIN TO MOST AREAS OF THE COUNTRY. SO DIRTY RIDGE IS ACTUALLY A GOOD THING IF YOU'RE IN NEED OF MOISTURE. YEAH YOU KNOW DIRTY BRINGS UP OR CONJURES IMAGES OF HOT DRY. IT'S REALLY THE OPPOSITE. METEOROLOGISTS WE DON'T ALWAYS NAME THINGS WELL I. BUT BUT DIRTY JUST MEANS A RIDGE TYPICALLY BRINGS DRY WEATHER SO DIRTY IN OUR TERMINOLOGY MEANS IT'S IT'S GOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH IT AND IT'S BRINGING A LOT OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. AND YOU THINK THAT CONTINUES? YEAH THE SOUTHWEST MOISTURE ESPECIALLY COMING IN IT FEEDS INTO THE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND IT ADDS MOISTURE REALLY THROUGHOUT THE SYSTEM AND WE'VE HAD GOOD MOISTURE COMING IN FROM THE GULF COAST REGION RECENTLY AND CONTINUING AND THAT IS HELPING TO FEED THAT MOISTURE INTO THAT RIDGE. SO IN SPITE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MEAN COUNTRY WE'RE STILL SEEING RAIN FALLING IN A LOT OF AREAS. BUT YOU SAID THAT MOISTURE HAVING THAT MOISTURE IN PLACE ACTUALLY SUPPORT WARMER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES. THAT'S PERHAPS THE ONLY DOWNSIDE TO ALL OF THIS. WE WERE SUPPRESSING THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WERE BRINGING THE RAIN BUT IT DOES BRING THE CONCERN OF HIGH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WHICH CAN LEAD TO YIELD REDUCTIONS. WELL WE'RE HEARING TALK OF AN EL NINO AND BRAD DO YOU THINK WE SEE EL NINO RETURN AND IF SO WHEN IT'S COMING. I KNOW WE'VE HAD SOME STUTTER STEPS AND SOME FALSE STARTS AND THE BOY WHO CRIED WOLF TYPE OF SCENARIOS PLAY OUT LAST FEW YEARS BUT IT REALLY DOES LOOK LIKE EL NINO IS ON THE HORIZON. WE'RE LOOKING AT A TIMETABLE OF FALL INTO EARLY WINTER OF DEVELOPMENT. THE EARLIER THAT ACTUALLY DOES HAPPEN THE EARLIER BEGINS TO AFFECT US WEATHER PATTERNS. SO THAT COULD COME INTO PLAY VERY LATE IN THE GROWING SEASON INTO THE HARVEST SEASON. IF IT'S AN EARLIER THAN EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF EL NINO WHAT DOES AN EL NINO MEAN FOR US IN THE FALL TIME. WELL A LOT OF TIMES WE'RE LOOKING AT A SITUATION WHERE YOU'D USE BEGIN TO GET A LITTLE MOISTURE I'M ASSUMING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES IN THAT SITUATION BUT IT'S KIND OF A TRANSITION PERIOD WHICH MEANS IT'S NOT THE MASSIVE FACTOR THAT IT IS DURING THE WINTER. IT'S KIND OF WHAT I'VE ALWAYS LOOKED AT IT AS. ALL RIGHT LET'S JUST SAY IF WE GET IMPACTS BY FALL OR HARVEST SEASON LIKE MIKE SAID WHAT THAT WOULD TYPICALLY BRING IS SOME RAIN CLOUDS. CHILLY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BUT NORTHERN AREAS OF FOR EXAMPLE THE UPPER MIDWEST THE NORTHERN PLAINS COULD HAVE A LONGER OR MORE EXTENDED GROWING SEASON LATER FROST MORE OPEN WEATHER PERHAPS. BUT AGAIN THAT'S CONTINGENT UPON ONLY NEW ACTUALLY AFFECTING PATTERNS AT THAT POINT. AND WE KNOW SOME PRODUCERS IN THE NORTHERN CORN BELT ARE NEEDING THE LONGER GROWING SEASON BECAUSE THINGS GOT IN REALLY LATE AND AT THE SAME TIME BRAD WE KNOW SOME FARMERS IN THE SOUTHEAST THAT REALLY HAD TO MUD THIS COTTON CROP IN. IT'S BEEN SO WET AND IT SOUNDS LIKE THEY COULD BE PUTTING IT OUT AS WELL IF THEY HAVE THE QUALITY BECAUSE OF ALL THE RAIN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THAT AND MAYBE ON THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IF AGAIN IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN IT COULD BE A WORST CASE SCENARIO BECAUSE YOU HAVE A DROUGHT AFFECTED CROP THAT ALL OF A SUDDEN IT STARTS RAINING AT HARVEST TIME. THIS HEAT THOUGH MIKE DO YOU THINK THIS IS JUST KIND OF A CYCLICAL CHANGE OR SOMETHING THAT'S MORE PERMANENT. WHEN WE TALK ABOUT THE HEAT KIND OF WHAT ARE YOU SEEING WITH THIS. I DON'T SEE IT AS A PERMANENT THING. NO I DO SEE IT AS CYCLICAL AND AS WE HEAD IN EL NINO A LOT OF THE YEARS THAT I'M LOOKING AT AT LEAST THIS IS REALLY PRELIMINARY FOR THE WINTER IS FOR A COLDER THAN NORMAL MIDWESTERN WINTER WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST A LOT AND I'M NOT SURE IF YOU'VE IF YOU'VE THOUGHT THE SAME THING FOR WINTER WE DIDN'T HAVE A CHANCE TO TALK BEFORE THE SHOW HERE BUT THE YEARS THAT I'M LOOKING AT ARE KIND OF WEAK EL NINO YEARS WHICH TEND TO BE A LOT OF TIMES COLDER AND I'M LOOKING LOOKING AT THE GREAT LAKES WHICH IS WHERE I FORECAST NOW FOR RED. IT'S SO EARLY TO TRY TO BE FORECASTING STRENGTH AT THIS POINT. SO I THINK WITH A WEAK EL NINO WE COULD CERTAINLY HEAD THAT DIRECTION. BUT YOU THINK WITH THE HEAT IT'S NOT AN INDICATION OF A BIGGER WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE. THIS SEEMS TO BE JUST AN EPISODIC THING FOR THIS SUMMER A VERY UNUSUAL I MEAN IT'S ALMOST PRECEDENTED TO HAVE THIS COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND HEAT. ALL RIGHT THANK YOU BOTH FOR BEING HERE. WE HAVE MUCH MORE OF THIS DISCUSSION THAT YOU CAN CHECK OUT ON AT WEB.COM. BUT I APPRECIATE YOU BOTH. THANK YOU SO MUCH. STAY WITH US. WE'LL BE BACK WITH MORE U.S. FARM REPORT IN JUST A MOMENT. 

AMERICAN COUNTRYSIDE
THE WILD WEST SPAWNED ALL MANNER OF NOSTALGIC HEROES AND HEROINES. FROM OUTLAWS LIKE BILLY THE KID, AND BUTCH CASSIDY TO SHOWMEN LIKE BUFFALO BILL. ONE OF THE MOST FAMOUS WAS ANNIE OAKLEY. A SHARP SHOOTER WITH THE TALENT TO IMPRESS. AMERICAN COUNTRYSIDE'S ANDREW MCCRAE PICKS UP THE TALE. ANNIE OAKLEY WAS BORN IN 1860 NEAR GREENVILLE, OHIO.  HER FATHER DIED WHEN SHE WAS JUST FIVE AND THE YOUNG GIRL WANTED TO HUNT ANIMALS TO HELP PROVIDE FOR HER FAMILY. (SHE STARTED HUNTING AND SHE WOULD HUNT PHEASANT AND BIRDS.  SHE WOULD HIT THEM IN THE HEAD SO THERE WOULD BE NO BUCKSHOT IN THE BODY SO THEY IT MADE  VERY GOOD EATING AND SHE WOULD SELL THE BIRDS TO THE HOTELS :15) CLIP 9345 8:24  **NOTE - WE NEED TO EDIT THIS CUT IN THE MIDDLE AS SHE COUGHS AND STUMBLES OVER HER WORDS.  WE NEED TO CUT IT AFTER "PHEASANT AND BIRDS" AND THEN JUMP TO "SHE WOULD HIT THEM IN THE HEAD…ON SCREEN:  MARILYN ROBBINS, GARST MUSEUM - GREENVILLE, OHIOMARILYN ROBBINS KNOWS ANNIE'S STORY WELL, HAVING WRITTEN SEVERAL BOOKS ABOUT THE SHARPSHOOTER.  ANNIE CAME TO FAME AS A YOUNG WOMAN WHEN SHE WAS ENTERED IN A SHOOTING CONTEST AGAINST WELL-KNOWN MARKSMEN FRANK BUTLER.  (THEY HAD TO SHOOT TWENTY FIVE BIRDS.  AND HE MISSED HIS LAST BIRD.  HE ONLY GOT TWENTY FOUR AND SHE GOT TWENTY-FIVE :10)NOT ONLY DID THE YOUNG LADY FROM THE OHIO FRONTIER HIT MORE BIRDS THAT BUTLER, THE TWO FELL IN LOVE AND GOT MARRIED.  THE PAIR WOULD BE TOGETHER FOR NEARLY FIFTY YEARS.  AT FIRST THEY PERFORMED TOGETHER AND THEN THEIR ACT CAUGHT THE EYE OF BUFFALO BILL WHO HIRED ANNIE TO BE A PART OF HIS WILD WEST SHOW.  YOU CAN SEE ANNIE'S AMAZING ABILITIES ON DISPLAY HERE AT THE GARST MUSEUM SUCH AS THE COMMORATIVE COINS THROWN INTO THE AIR FOR ANNIE TO SHOOT. (ALL THE ONES THAT WE HAVE ON DISPLAY HERE HAVE HOLES IN THEM WHERE ANNIE HAS SHOT THE HOLES..  WE HAVE CARDS.  SHE WOULD SHOOT THE ACE OUT OF THE MIDDLE OF A CARD :11) CLIP 9345 SHOT A CIGAR OUT OF THE MOUTH OF HER HUSBAND FRANK.  THE FAMILY DOG WAS EVEN PART OF THE ACT.  (THEY HAD A DOG NAMED DAVE AND HE WAS VERY TRUSTWORTHY TOO BECAUSE THEY WOULD PUT AN APPLE ON HIS HEAD,  JUST SIT IT RIGHT THERE ON TOP OF HIS HEAD AND HE'D SIT THERE AND SHE WOULD SHOOT THAT APPLE OF) CLIP 9345 ANNIE PERFORMED IN FRONT OF KINGS, TSARS AND HEADS OF STATE IN COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD.  SHE WAS DEEPLY RELIGIOUS AND SAID HER TALENT CAME FROM GOD AND LOTS OF PRACTICE.  MANY OF US KNOW ANNIE FROM THE BROADWAY SHOW "ANNIE GET YOUR GUN."  MARILYN SAYS WE'VE GOT IT ALL WRONG. (OH DEAR IT WAS NOTHING LIKE THAT.  ANNIE WAS NOT ANYWHERE THAT TYPE OF WOMAN.  SHE WOULDN'T WEAR SHORT SLEEVES, SHE ALWAYS WORE LONG SLEEVES, OR LONGER SLEEVES.  AND OF COURSE HER DRESSES WERE LONGER.  SHE WAS JUST NOT ANYTHING LIKE THAT ANNIE GET YOU GUN) 16:43  WE NEED TO CUT THIS IN THE MIDDLE WHERE THE SOUND DROPS OUT.  WE CAN COVER WITH VIDEO OF THE ANNIE GET YOUR GUND PICS OR PICS OF HER CONSERVATIVE OUTFIT MARILYN LOVES TO TELL ANNIE'S STORY.  ANNIE CAME FROM A POOR FAMILY, BUT NEVER FORGOT HER ROOTS AND WAS ALWAYS WILLING TO HELP OTHERS.  FOR MARILYN IT'S A STORY THAT CONTINUES TO INSPIRE HER.(A LOT OF PEOPLE SAY IF YOU COULD JUST MEET ONE PERSON YOU WOULD WANT TO MEET JESUS WELL I PLAN ON MEETING HIM SOMEDAY BUT I'D RATHER MEET ANNIE OAKLEY RIGHT NOW) IT'S BEEN OVER A CENTURY SINCE ANNIE OAKLEY WAS PERFORMING IN FRONT OF AUDIENCES LITERALLY AROUND THE WORLD BUT HER STORY LIVES ON HERE IN HER HOMETOWN.  TRAVELING THE COUNTRYSIDE, IN GREENVILLE, OHIO, I'M ANDREW MCCREA.  THANKS ANDREW.SEE I LEARNED SOMETHING TODAY. ALRIGHT WHEN WE COME BACK, PROFESSOR JOHN PHIPPS...AND CUSTOMER SUPPORT.

CUSTOMER SUPPORT
NEVER ONE TO BACK DOWN FROM A TOUGH TOPIC, JOHN PHIPPS HAS OPEN THE USFR MAILBAG AND FOUND A VIEWER QUESTIONING A PREVIOUS CITATION. JOHN. DANIEL FRIEDRICHSEN FROM HOLSTEIN, IOWA, DISPUTES MY NUMBERS ABOUT THE ENERGY GAIN FROM ETHANOL:"IN 2016, USDA AND ISU PUBLISHED A STUDY SHOWING THAT THE NET ENERGY RATIO FOR AVERAGE CORN ETHANOL IS IN THE RANGE OF 2.1 TO 2.3 (MEANING EVERY 1 BTU OF ENERGY INVESTED IN THE ETHANOL MANUFACTURING PROCESS RESULTS IN 2.1 TO 2.3 BTUS OF ENERGY IN THE FORM OF FUEL ETHANOL). THIS WOULD BE A 110-130% "NET ENERGY RETURN," AS OPPOSED TO THE 30% NUMBER THAT LIKELY CAME FROM THE 2002 USDA STUDY (16 YEARS OLD!)…I BELIEVE THE 130% NET ENERGY RETURN IS HIGHER THAN FOSSIL FUEL."DANIEL, THANKS FOR YOUR FEEDBACK. WE ARE BOTH TALKING ABOUT A RATIO COMMONLY USED TO COMPARE ENERGY SOURCES: EROEI – ENERGY RETURNED ON ENERGY INVESTED. THE NUMBERS I USED ARE FROM WIDELY CITED STUDY IN 2010 BY HALL AND MURPHY PUBLISHED IN ANNALS OF THE NEW YORK ACADEMY OF SCIENCES. YOU CAN FIND IT EASILY ON WIKIPEDIA, AND IF YOU DISAGREE AND HAVE THE PROOF, YOU CAN CORRECT IT, LIKE ALL WIKIPEDIA PAGES. WHILE I THINK THE 2016 STUDY BY THE USDA AND IOWA STATE IS GENEROUS IN ITS ACCOUNTING ASSUMPTIONS AND SUSPECT DUE TO THE PARTIALITY OF THE RESEARCHERS, I WILL SPOT YOU THOSE EXTRA BTUS. TWO IMPORTANT POINTS: WHILE AN ENERGY RETURN OF 130% SEEMS IMPRESSIVE, REMEMBER THIS SAYS NOTHING ABOUT ECONOMIC RETURN. SECONDLY, COMPARED TO OTHER ENERGY SOURCES, IT'S SMALL POTATOES. HERE ARE THE NUMBERS. ETHANOL FROM CANE IS ABOUT 2-3 TIMES MORE EFFICIENT, BUT FOSSIL FUELS ARE AN ORDER OF MAGNITUDE GREATER. THAT'S THE HEADACHE WITH COAL – IT'S CHEAP BUT DIRTY ENERGY. THE THING TO REMEMBER ABOUT ETHANOL IS IT'S NOT ABOUT ENERGY GAINS, AND NOT REALLY ABOUT ECONOMIC GAINS – ALTHOUGH I WILL GRANT IT COULD BE ECONOMICALLY FEASIBLE SIMPLY AS AN OCTANE ENHANCER. IT'S ABOUT POLITICAL EFFICIENCY. ETHANOL TURNED OUT TO BE AN EFFECTIVE WAY TO FORCE GREATER DEMAND FOR CORN AND HENCE HIGHER PRICES WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE POLITICAL POWER. IF THERE WERE A RATIO OF POLITICS EXPENDED TO POLICIES ACHIEVED, IT MIGHT RANK RIGHT AT THE TOP. THANKS JOHN. WE'LL BE BACK WITH OUR FROM THE FARM FAVORITES AFTER THE BREAK.

FROM THE FARM
WELCOME BACK TO U.S. FARM REPORT. IT'S TIME TO LOOK AT A FEW OF OUR FROM THE FARM FAVORITE PHOTOS. WE START WITH THIS GREAT SHOT FROM JEFFERY ZIMMERMAN OF MYERSTOWN PENNSYLVANIA. HE'S PICKING UP SOME CHOPPED GREENS THAT LOOK LIKE THEY'RE HEADED FOR THE SILAGE PIT. JEFFERY SENT THE PICTURE TO OUR FACEBOOK PAGE. GOING TO BE THE COVER PHOTO FOR THIS MONTH...AND HE WINS A USFR HAT.AND TAKE A LOOK AT THIS. A COUSIN OF MINE FROM NEW MEXICO-- TRIP SAULSBERRY WORKING SMARTER NOT HARDER. HE'S RUNNING THAT WHEELBARROW AT A PRETTY FAST CLIP WHILE USING A HOVERBOARD. NOW I'VE TRIED ONE OF THOSE THINGS BEFORE...AND BELIEVE ME --THEY TAKE EXTREMELY GOOD BALANCE..AND TO DO IT ON A DIRT DRIVEWAY IS IMPRESSIVE. AND FROM TWITTER, LLOYD ARTHUR SAYS HE'S NOW SEEN HIS FIRST COTTON BLOOM. HE LIVES IN RALLS TEXAS WHICH IS IN CROSBY COUNTY. THE FIELD WAS PLANTED BACK ON MAY 5TH BUT DROUGHT AND A BAD HAIL STORM HAS TAKEN A TOLL.HE SAYS THAT PIVOT HAS 3 DIFFERENT AGES OF COTTON WHICH IS MAKING IT HARD TO MANAGE THE INPUTS. THE LATEST NASS REPORT SAYS JUST 25 PERCENT OF TEXAS COTTON IS RATED GOOD TO EXCELLENT. IF YOU HAVE A PICTURE OF VIDEO YOU'D LIKE TO SEND IN, SEND THOSE TO MAILBAG-AT-U-S-FARM-REPORT-DOT-COM OR CHECK US OUT ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER.

CLOSE
FROM ALL OF US AT U.S. FARM REPORT, I'M MIKE HOFFMAN. AND I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS-- IN FOR TYNE MORGAN. THANK YOU FOR WATCHING U-S FARM REPORT.  BE SURE TO JOIN US RIGHT HERE AGAIN NEXT WEEK, HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND OUT THERE IN FARM COUNTRY.  

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