USFR Weekly Recap - June 17-18, 2017

June 17, 2017 03:30 AM
 

TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
JUNE 17-18, 2017


HEADLINES
WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS IN FOR TYNE MORGAN, AND HERE'S WHAT WE'RE WORKING ON THIS WEEKEND. DROUGHT AND DRYNESS PERSSITSIN THE UPPER MIDWEST. WE'LL POUR OVER PRICES AND MARKET ACTION. IN JOHN'S WORLD? MORE PORK BUT STRONG PRICES, WHAT'S BEHIND THESE MARKET MOVES...ANSWERS FROM WORLD PORK EXPO. AND MACHINERY PETE IS ON THE ROAD IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

CROP PROGRESS
NOW FOR THE NEWS...IT WAS A MIXED WEEK IN COMMODITY MARKETS LED BY WEATHER, CROP CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL POSTIONING. ONE OF THE BIGGEST MOVERS, SPRING WHEAT FUTURES. THE MINNESOTA WHEAT CONTRACTS TRADING UP IN TO THE 6-40 RANGE. ACCORDING TO USDA'S LATEST CROP PROGRESS REPORT, THE U.S. SPRING WHEAT CROP IS IN ITS WORST SHAPE IN ALMOST THREE DECADES. JUST 45 PERCENT IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT. MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST SEEING SOME RAIN IN THE LAST FEW DAYS BUT IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO SAVE THE CROP.

WHEAT CONDITIONS
SPEAKING OF WHEAT -- THAT HARVEST MOVING INTO KANSAS. THE KANSAS WHEAT COMMISSION SAYS WITH HOT, DRY, AND WINDY WEATHER, COMBINES ARE IN FULL FORCE. BUT USDA SAYS THEY'RE RUNNING BEHIND THE FIVE YEAR    AVERAGE WITH JUST FOUR PERCENT HARVESTED. OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS ARE WELL AHEAD OF AVERAGE. NATIONALLY, 17-PERCENT IS NOW CUT. CORN TICKED DOWN A POINT FROM LAST WEEK WITH 67% GOOD TO EXCELLENT. IOWA, MINNESOTA AND NEBRASKA REMAIN STRONG WHILE THE EAST STRUGGLES. USDA ALSO RELEASING THE FIRST SOYBEAN CONDITION UPDATE OF THE SEASON. 66-PERCENT IS CALLED GOOD TO EXCELLENT.

CATTLE PRICES
CATTLE PRICES ALSO TRADING OFF SEASONAL HIGHS...TRENDING LOWER THIS WEEK. AUGUST FEEDERS CLOSING BELOW THE 50-DAY MOVING AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE BREAKING HIGHER IN LATE WINTER. ON THE FEEDER SIDE-- THE BUSINESS HOLDING WELL IN THE BLACK. THE STERLING BEEF PROFIT TRACKER PUTTING FEEDER PROFIT MARGINS AT JUST UNDER THE 5-HUNDRED DOLLAR PER HEAD MARK. CASH PROFIT MARGINS FOR COW-CALF PRODUCERS IN 2017 ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE $111 PER COW.

U.S. BEEF TO CHINA
IN OTHER BEEF NEWS - THE U.S. FINALIZING DETAILS UNDER A PLAN TO SEND U.S. BEEF TO CHINA FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2003. AND NOW, THAT THE FIRST SHIPMENT LEAVING NEBRASKA FOR CHINA AS A TEST. GREATER OMAHA PACKING COMPANY SHIPPING 40 BOXES OF STEAKS BY AIR. USDA POSTING THE REQUIREMENTS FOR ITS EXPORT VERIFICATION PROGRAM FOR U.S. COMPANIES. "CHINA IS VERY INTERESTED IN TRACEABILITY. THEY WANT TO BE ABLE TO TRACE THE ORGIN OF ANY BEEF THAT THEY IMPORT BACK TO THE U.S. OR  AT LEAST CATTLE THAT WERE RAISED ON U.S. SOIL. SO THAT'S ONE OF THE BIG OBSTACLES HERE. "CHINA HAS EMERGED AS A MAJOR BEEF BUYER IN RECENT YEARS, WITH IMPORTS INCREASING FROM $275 MILLION IN 2012 TO $2.5 BILLION IN 2016. UNTIL THE BAN TOOK EFFECT IN 2003, THE U.S. WAS CHINA'S LARGEST SUPPLIER OF IMPORTED BEEF, PROVIDING 70 PERCENT OF THEIR TOTAL INTAKE.

CHINA SLASHING CORN OUTPUT
MEANWHILE, NEW REPORTS SHOW CHINA IS SLASHING CORN OUTPUT. THE LATEST FORECAST PUSHING THE 2017-2018 CORN CROP TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL IN FOUR YEARS. DROUGHT AND HAIL TAKING A BITE OUT OF PLANTING IN THE NORTHEASTERN REGION OF THE COUNTRY. THE FEDERAL RESERVE ANNOUNCING A QUARTER-POINT RATE HIKE WEDNESDAY AS EXPECTED. THE NEW RANGE NOW BETWEEN 1 AND 1.25 PERCENT. THAT'S THE FIRST INCREASE SINCE MARCH. THE FED BELIEVES INFLATION WILL FALL WELL SHORT OF ITS 2 PERCENT TARGET THIS YEAR.

MIMLK PRICES
ON THE DAIRY SIDE, USDA'S LATEST WASDE REPORT RAISING EXPECTATIONS FOR MILK PRICES. THE ALL MILK FORECAST EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 17-80 TO    18-20 THIS YEAR AND UP TO 19 DOLLARS IN 2018. THE INCREASE BASED ON HIGHER CHEESE AND COMPONENT PRODUCT PRICES.

OPEC
OPEC'S PLAN TO CUT PRODUCTION TO BOLSTER PRICES MAY NOT HAVE ITS INTENDED EFFECTS. AND THAT'S DUE IN PART TO HIGHER OUTPUT FROM NON-OPEC COUNTRIES LIKE THE U-S. IN ITS MONTHLY OIL REPORT THE INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY SAYS  PRODUCTION FROM NON-OPEC PRODUCERS COULD GROW BY 700-THOUSAND BARRELS DAILY...AND TWICE THAT AMOUNT NEXT YEAR.

WEATHER
THOSE ARE THE HEADLINES...METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH A LOOK AT THE WEATHER WEEK AHEAD. MIKE WE'VE BEEN WATCHING THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR DRYNESS..IS THERE ANY RAIN IN THE FORECAST? THANKS CLINTON ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME CHANCES I'M NOT REAL HOPEFUL IN GETTING OUT OF THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS THAT ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DECODERS UNFORTUNATELY YOU CAN SEE THOUGH WHAT A DIFFERENCE A WEEK OR TWO IS MADE OVER FLORIDA. MOST OF THAT DROUGHT IS GONE NOW AS THEY'VE HAD A TON OF RAIN THIS IS WHAT LOOKED LIKE FOUR WEEKS AGO. LOTS OF EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT IN THAT AREA VERY LITTLE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT YOU CAN SEE HOW THAT'S BEEN EXPANDING AND IT'S BEEN CONTRACTING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY STILL. OVERALL WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE LOWER 48 THERE IS NOT MUCH DROUGHT OUT THERE COMPARED TO WHAT WE TYPICALLY SEE. LET'S GO DAY BY DAY THIS WEEK I AM LOOKING FOR A COLD FRONT MOVING UP AND DOWN THE EAST COAST AND GULF COAST AS WE START TODAY WITH COOLER AIR BEHIND IT. IT'S GOING TO BE TAKING PLACE TAKING THE PLACE OF ALL THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY YOU'VE SEEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THIS PAST WEEK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THAT FRONT SECONDARY FRONT DIVING SOUTHEAST WHERE JUST BY THE WAY IT REMAINS HOT OUT WEST MOST OF THIS WEEK. THAT FIRST SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST IN THE MID-ATLANTIC AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STATIONARY FRONT OVER FLORIDA KEEPS IT ACTIVE THERE. AND THIS IS A PRETTY POTENT SYSTEM AS WELL THAT STARTS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY FRIDAY IT'S OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE COLD FRONT ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. COOLER AIR ONCE AGAIN SPREADING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE HEAT JUST CONTINUES THOUGH SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEST WILL BE BACK IN OUR NEXT HALF HOUR WITH A LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK.THANKS MIKE.

TEASE
WHEN WE COME BACK OUR ANALYSTS WILL JOIN US TO DISCUSS MARKET ACTION THIS WEEK AND LATER, WE TAKE A TRIP TO JOHN'S WORLD.

ROUNDTABLE 1
WELCOME BACK TO U.S. FARM REPORT BRIAN DORHERTY OF STEWART PETERSON OUR GUEST AND WE HAVE BRAND MATTHEWS WITH  ROACH AG MARKETING. THANK YOU BOTH FOR BEING HERE. ALL RIGHT GUYS WEATHER MARKET OR NOT WEATHER MARKET WHAT'S GOING ON WITH GRAINS AS WE KIND OF WRAP UP ANOTHER WEEK AND START A FRESH WEEK BRIAN WE'LL START WITH YOU. WELL WE'RE CERTAINLY IN A WEATHER MARKET FOR SURE. WE GOT SOME TIMELY RAINS THIS WEEK IN PARTS OF THE MIDWEST. BUT YOU'VE GOT NET DRYING IN THE WEST. IT'S JUST THAT TIME OF YEAR WHEN THINGS GET CRITICAL. COUPLE THAT WITH A CHALLENGING SPRING WITH LOW STAND COUNTS IN MANY STATES AREAS THAT MAY HAVE PREVENT PLANT CORN YOU'RE LOOKING AT A REDUCTION OF 4 MILLION ACRES IN CORN TO START FROM LAST YEAR THERE COULD BE ANOTHER MILLION A MILLION AND A HALF PREVENT. LET ALONE ACRES THAT SWITCH THE BEANS SO AS WEATHER GOES HERE INTO LATE JUNE AND JULY YOU KNOW BE PREPARED FOR ANYTHING. RIGHT NOW WE'D SAY CONDITIONS ARE LESS THAN IDEAL. THE CROPS OF LATE THE MARKET'S BEGINNING TO FACTOR THAT IN. WE'RE SEEING MORE BUYING ON SETBACKS AS OF LATE. AND WHEN YOU GET INTO THIS WINDOW THE NEXT SIX WEEKS ARE REALLY CRITICAL SO PAY ATTENTION. YEAH BRAD AS WE LOOK AT THE CONDITION RATING OF THE CROP WE HAVE YOU KNOW CORN IS 67 PERCENT GOOD TO EXCELLENT. SOYBEANS ARE AT 66 AND SPRING WHEAT IS 45 WHAT WHAT DOES THAT SAY TO YOU. WELL TO ME IT'S KIND OF A BIG DEAL OBVIOUSLY. I WANT TO SAY IT'S THE LOWEST GOOD TO EXCELLENT RATINGS IN 29 YEARS SINCE 1988. RIGHT NOW CORN REALLY IS IN SOMEWHAT OF A WHEAT LED MARKET. OK. I MEAN YOU LOOK AT WHAT MINNEAPOLIS HAS DONE IT'S DRAGGING KANSAS CITY AND CHICAGO. THERE'S ALSO QUALITY CONCERNS THERE. SO THERE'S NOT GOING TO BE A LOT OF HIGH PROTEIN QUALITY WHEAT THAT'S HELPING THE CORN MARKET. BIG PICTURE THOUGH. YOU TAKE A LOOK AT CORN BEING AT 65 PERCENT OR 67 PERCENT 8 PERCENT BELOW LAST YEAR. I MEAN IT'S 4 PERCENT BELOW THE AVERAGE AND YOU LOOK AT WHERE A LOT OF THAT IS IN THE EAST. YOU KNOW ILLINOIS OHIO AND INDIANA. RIGHT. THE REASON THEY ARE WHERE THEY ARE IS BECAUSE OF STANDOUTS. AND WHEN YOU HAVE LOW STAND COUNTS THAT CAN'T BE FIXED. ALL OF A SUDDEN WITH WEATHER CHANGES. SO IN THE EASTER CORN BELT I JUST HAVE A REALLY HARD TIME SEEING THE ABILITY TO ACHIEVE LAST YEAR'S YIELDS. DO YOU AGREE THERE. AND CAN THE WEST MAKE ANY OF THIS UP. YEAH. YOU KNOW WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE CROP RATINGS EARLY IN THE SEASON BOY YOU HAVE TO TAKE WITH A GRAIN OF SALT BECAUSE THE PLANTS ARE YOUNG. WE GET HEAT UNITS NITROGEN KICKS IN IT GROWS FASTER AND LOOKS GOOD. HOWEVER YOU GET TO MID-JUNE AND YOU'VE GOT 20 PERCENT OF INDIANA RATED POOR A VERY POOR. YOU'RE NOT GOING TO PROBABLY MOVE THAT CORN UP INTO THE GOOD OR EXCELLENT CATEGORY. SO IT IS A BIG DEAL THIS YEAR. PLUS THE LATENESS TO THE CROP IT'S SUSCEPTIBLE TO HEAT. YOU'VE JUST GOT A LOT OF ISSUES. WE KIND OF LIKEN IT TO A SPRING THAT CAN UNCOIL. THIS CORN MARKET HAS HAD FOUR DOWN YEARS OF PRICE. WE'VE BUILT A DEMAND SHIP THAT'S STARTING TO MOVE FORWARD AND GET RECORD DEMAND SO THERE'S A LOT OF GOOD THINGS PERCOLATING UNDER THE MARKETPLACE. THE MANAGED MONEY HAS STAYED SHORT BUT THAT'S STARTING TO MOVE OUT. AND SO I DON'T KNOW OVER PROMISE AND UNDER DELIVER HERE BUT YOU'VE GOT ALL A SETUP FOR A POP IN THE MARKET. THE KEY IS HOW DO YOU HANDLE AS A FARMER IF WE GET UP TO THAT 4:15 4:30 OR WHAT DO YOU DO WITH IT. AND SO WE THINK IT'S KEY TO KEEP A BALANCED APPROACH. AS YOU START TO WATCH THIS WEATHER MARKET UNFOLD IS IT NOW OR IS THERE A TIME PERIOD AND WHAT YOU'RE LOOKING FOR HERE. THAT'S A GOOD QUESTION. I WOULD SAY THAT YOU KNOW IF THE WEATHER THAT THEY'RE CALLING FOR COME LATE JUNE EARLY JULY ACTUALLY TAKES PLACE. WE'RE TALKING ABOUT MAYBE ANOTHER RIDGE MORE HEAT. A LOT OF IT'S SUPPOSED TO BE MORE IN THE WESTERN CORN BELT MORE DRYNESS. IF THERE'S THAT THREAT THEN IT'S HAPPENING SOON. IF IT'S NOT THEN THEN IT MIGHT BE UNTIL THE COMBINES ROLL AND THEY SAY OH WOW YOU KNOW MY YIELDS NOT QUITE WHAT I WAS EXPECTING IT TO BE BELOW LAST YEAR AND COULD BE A POST-HARVEST RALLY. IT WILL BE ABOUT THE WEATHER AND THAT'S WHY I AGREE WE ARE IN A WEATHER MARKET NOW. WHEN YOU LOOK ELSEWHERE AROUND THE WORLD TOO CHINA'S CUT ITS CORN PRODUCTION ALREADY A LITTLE BIT. YOU'VE GOT DRY ISSUES STARTING TO PERCOLATE ELSEWHERE. WHEAT'S REALLY STARTING TO GRAB HOLD. SO IT'S A GOOD STORY FROM A PRICING PERSPECTIVE WE'RE   STARTING TO SEE SOME THINGS FINALLY DEVELOP IN A MARKET THAT'S BEEN SIDEWAYS. AGAIN THE KEY THOUGH WILL BE THE BALANCED APPROACH BECAUSE AS WE MOVE HIGHER THERE'S GOING TO BE THAT TEMPTATION AS FARMERS RAN INTO LAST YEAR NOT TO REWARD THE RALLIES. WE THINK WE NEED TO REWARD THE RALLY BUT MAINTAIN SOME OWNERSHIP AND SO LOOK AT CALL OPTIONS THINGS LIKE THAT SO YOU CAN SELL AGGRESSIVELY BUT RETAIN THE OWNERSHIP. WE CAN GET A REAL BULL RUN IF WEATHER GRABS HOLD. WE HAVEN'T HAD THAT SINCE 2012 GOING ON FIVE YEARS WE FORGET HOW FAST PRICES CAN MOVE. YEAH I MEAN WE WERE TALKING EARLIER. 2010 WAS A YEAR WHERE WE SAW A LOT OF MOVEMENT. 2010 IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR. I MEAN IT STARTED WITH A WHEAT LED RALLY AS WELL. OUT OF DRYNESS FROM RUSSIA AND THEN ALL OF SUDDEN COMBINES STARTED TO ROLL THEY REALIZED WE DIDN'T HAVE THE CROP  HERE AND WE STARTED OFF YOU KNOW $4 CORN BY THE END OF THE MARKETING YEAR YOU'RE OVER 7. I'M NOT SAYING YOU'RE GOING TO $7 CORN RIGHT. BUT WE STILL HAVE A LOT TO GET THROUGH ON WHETHER WE DON'T KNOW WHAT KIND OF CROP WE HAVE WE DO KNOW WE'RE NOT GOING TO HAVE THE WHEAT THAT WE HAD LAST YEAR. AND I AGREE WITH HIM IT'S ONE OF THOSE THINGS WHERE YOU HAVE TO MAKE SURE THAT  YOU DO GIVE YOURSELF UPSIDE THE KEY ABOUT CALL OPTIONS IN MY OPINION THIS YEAR IS MAKE SURE YOU HAVE PLENTY OF TIME. ALL RIGHT GENTLEMEN WE'LL HAVE YOU BACK HERE IN JUST A SECOND. TALK A LITTLE BIT MORE ABOUT THIS OTHER THINGS THAT COME BACK WITH MORE FARM REPORT IN JUST A MINUTE.

ROUNDTABLE 2
WELCOME BACK TO US FARM REPORT BRIAN DOHERTY STEWART PETERSON  AND BRAD MATTHEWS WITH ROACH AG MARKETING OUR GUEST I MEAN WE TALKED A LOT ABOUT THIS CORN CROP LETS TALK ABOUT SOYBEANS THAT CROP ALSO KIND OF GETTING A LATE START BUT WE EXPECT LOTS OF ACRES THIS YEAR WHERE DO YOU GUYS STAND ON THAT. YEAH. YES YES YES. ALL OF THAT. LOTS OF ACREAGE. YES. YOU KNOW THE INCENTIVE WAS THERE EARLY IN THE YEAR THE BOARD WAS TRADING OVER $10 THE PRICE RATIO CORN TO BEANS. I THINK THE FINANCIAL COMMUNITY PROBABLY SWAYED SOME PRODUCERS TO THINK ABOUT BEANS OVER CORN. SO YOU'VE GOT A LOT OF THINGS THERE. GREAT DEMAND IN THAT MARKET AS WELL. AND SO WHEN YOU LOOK AT THAT THAT BEAN PICTURE THE WORLD'S SUPPLY IS ALL OF A SUDDEN BALLOONING. THE KEY WILL BE THE U.S. CROP OF COURSE AS WEATHER GOES SO WILL PRICE NINE FIFTY $10 BEANS THOUGH YOU SHOULD BE REWARDING THAT RALLY ON NOVEMBER ASSUMING NORMAL CROP UNTIL PROVEN OTHERWISE. WE'RE STARTING TO SEE HERE IN MID-JUNE SOME PRIVATE FIRMS WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THINGS LIKE THAT TRY AND ESTIMATE YIELD. IT'S STILL REALLY EARLY FOR THAT BEANS HAVE A TENDENCY TO DO A LOT BETTER I THINK THAN PEOPLE GIVE CREDIT TO EARLY ON AND THEN THEN THE WEATHER IN JULY IN AUGUST SO RIGHT NOW REWARD THE RALLIES IF NEED BE. COVER THEM BUT THERE'S GOING TO BE A LOT OF BEING SUPPLY UNLESS PROVEN OTHERWISE. BRAD YOU AGREE. YEAH I WOULD AGREE. I MEAN THERE'S GOING TO BE THE ACRES IT IS ALL ABOUT WHETHER IF WHAT THE FINAL YIELD IS I MEAN YOU ADD A COUPLE OF BUSHELS. YOU KNOW IT'S $180 MILLION AN ADDITIONAL CARRY OUT YOU TAKE TWO BUSHELS OFF IT'S $180 MILLION OFF

OF CARRY OUT. SO IT IS ALL ABOUT WEATHER. BUT WE WILL HAVE THE ACRES. SO WITH THAT BEING SAID THE FUNDS DO HAVE A VERY LARGE SHORT POSITION IN BEANS. THEY ALSO HAVE A VERY LARGE SHORT POSITION SOYBEAN MEAL. THEY WENT FROM 73000 CONTRACTS LONG AND MARGIN IN SOYBEAN MEAL TO 50000 SHORT. THAT'S PRETTY BIG. AND THAT'S A LOT IN A SHORT TIME. MEAL'S THE LEADER OF THE COMPLEX SO I THINK YOU'RE DUE FOR SHORT COVERING RALLIES BUT THEY'RE PROBABLY GOING TO BE NOTHING MORE THAN THAT. SO I WOULD AGREE YOU GET YOUR SUMMER RALLY IN SOYBEANS THE WEATHER PREMIUM SHORT COVERING YOU GOT TO DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT. WHAT'S YOUR FINAL ACREAGE NUMBER. I THINK WE'RE GOING TO BE SOMEWHERE AROUND THAT 90 MILLION 89 1/2 MILLION. WELL I THINK WE PROBABLY PICK UP 5 MILLION AND BEANS COMPARED TO A YEAR AGO. AND SO I'D AGREE WITH THAT. THE THING TOO WE TALKED ABOUT THE THE FUNDS IN THE MANAGED MONEY THEY'VE BEEN SO SHORT AGRICULTURE FOR SO LONG THAT AGAIN IF THEY DECIDE TO UNWIND OR GO LONG THINGS CAN GET PRETTY VIOLENT IN A HURRY AND THE MARKET LIKES TO BUY BEANS SO I WOULD BE VERY CAREFUL. IF I'M SELLING AGGRESSIVELY INTO THIS TO MAKE SURE AGAIN TO HAVE SOME COVERAGE PROBABILITY STUDIES EVEN THOUGH IT DOESN'T SEEM LIKELY SUGGEST THERE'S A 70 PERCENT CHANCE WE'LL SE A 12 IN FRONT OF BEANS SOMETIME THIS YEAR. AS WE START TALKING ABOUT SOME OF THE OTHER PLAYERS IN THESE MARKETS AND THE END USER THOSE WITH LIVESTOCK WHERE DO YOU SIT AS FAR AS WATCHING THIS AND GETTING PREPARED BETWEEN NOW AND HARVEST? LIVESTOCK I THINK A LOT OF THESE GUYS ARE GOING HAND-TO-MOUTH. I THINK A LOT OF END USERS IN GENERAL HAVE BEEN GOING HAND-TO-MOUTH AND THAT'S ONE OF THE THINGS THAT COULD GET THESE MARKETS EXCITED. IF THERE STARTS TO BE A WEATHER PROBLEM BECAUSE YOU HAVE A LOT OF END USERS WHO WILL START PURCHASING A LOT MORE THEIR NEEDS INSTEAD OF THIS HAND-TO-MOUTH THAT THEY'VE BEEN DOING. YOU AGREE WITH THAT? TOTALLY. WE'VE BEEN FOR SOME TIME 100 PERCENT COVERED ON FEED NEEDS LIMITED DOWNSIDE POTENTIAL HOW MUCH CAN COST GO DOWN FROM 375 50 CENTS. WHAT'S THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS THING TO REALLY MOVE SOMEWHERE AND SEE FIVE SIX DOLLAR CORN. I DON'T KNOW BUT IT'S BEEN THERE BEFORE AND WHEN THINGS START TO MOVE IT ALWAYS SURPRISES PEOPLE HOW FAST THINGS CAN MOVE. SO YOU SHOULD JUST COVER IT. WE'VE GOT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY THIS SPRING NOT TO THINK THAT WAY. YEAH. CATTLE MARKETS OVERALL WHAT DO YOU THINK THE LAST WEEK OR SO WE'VE WE'VE KIND OF SEEM LIKE WE'VE HIT SOME HIGHS. MAYBE NOW WE'RE STARTING TO TRADE DOWN OFF OF THOSE. YEAH. YOU'VE GOT A LOT OF THINGS. I MEAN WE CAN GO BACK TO FEBRUARY IN AND START OUT WITH DRYNESS IN THE SOUTH AND IN THE NORTH AND THEN THE FIRES AND THEN WE HAD THAT THE LATE SPRING WINTER STORM TAINTED BEEF IN BRAZIL TRUMP MAKING HEADWAY WITH CHINA AND CHINA NOW IMPORTING BEEF. ALL THESE BULL FACTORS IN A BIG BULL RUN AND THE FUNDS GOING AGGRESSIVELY LONG THE MARKET. YET WHAT DID WE GET HERE AND RECENTLY? WE'VE GOT A DOUBLE TOP ON AUGUST CATTLE BIG BEARISH KEY REVERSAL THE HANDWRITING'S ON THE WALL THAT DEMAND MEAN THAT PEOPLE CHASE THIS MARKET FOREVER. SO I'M ENCOURAGING PRODUCERS TO BE SMART ABOUT THIS BUY PUTS PROTECT THE BOTTOM LINE LEAVE THE TOP SIDE OPEN. BUT I THINK THE HIGH IS PROBABLY IN ON CATTLE. WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT THAT. I AGREE 100 PERCENT. WE TALKED TO YOU I WOULD SAY THE PARTY IS PROBABLY OVER. I THINK THE HIGH IS MOST LIKELY I THINK WE'RE DUE FOR A BOUNCE. BUT THE LONG TERM DIRECTION I THINK IS DOWN. BRAD AS WE START PREPARING FOR ANOTHER WEEK GETTING READY FOR THIS WEEK. ANY ADVICE FOR WHAT PEOPLE NEED TO BE THINKING ABOUT? PRODUCERS I GUESS AS WE WERE TALKING ABOUT IN THE EASTERN BELT BIG PICTURE. WHAT I WOULD BE THINKING ABOUT IS KIND OF LIKE 2015. WE DIDN'T HAVE THE CROP IN THE EAST. AND ONE OF THE MAJOR THINGS IN THE CASH MARKET THAT WE SAW WAS AFTER YOU GOT THROUGH SUMMER YOU GOT THROUGH HARVEST MAJOR IMPROVEMENTS AND BASIS. SO IF I'M A PRODUCER IN THE EAST OR CORN BELT WHAT I WANT TO BE THINKING ABOUT IF I HAVE ON FARM STORAGE IS I DO NOT WANT TO BE MAKING ANY SALES THIS SUMMER THAT ARE CASH SALES. I WANT HEDGES TO ARRIVE CONTRACTS BECAUSE I WANT THE ABILITY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE BASE DEPRECIATION THAT I FORESEE HAPPENING IN THE EASTERN CORN BELT AND WE'LL BE BACK IN MORE U.S. FARM REPORT AND GET THEIR FINAL THOUGHTS IN JUST A SECOND. STAY WITH US.

MARKETS NOW
WELCOME BACK TIME FOR MARKETS NOW WE'LL START WITH BRIAN DORHERTYBRIAN WHAT DO YOU THINK? WELL WE'RE AT THAT TIME OF YEAR LAST YEAR WE PEAKED IN THE CORN MARKET HERE. TOWARD THE END OF JUNE AND YOU KNOW ON A FRIDAY YOU WENT HOME OR YOU AS A FARMER YOU WENT IN YOUR HOUSE YOU SHOULDN'T A SOLD ANYTHING BY MONDAY YOU SHOULD'VESOLD EVERYTHING. DARNED IF YOU DARNED IF YOU DON'T. SO THE STRESS POINT THAT I THINK IS KEY IS TO HAVE A BALANCED APPROACH AND REWARD THESE RALLIES WE'VE GOT BIG INVENTORIES COMING INTO THIS YEAR. WE'VE GOT UNCERTAINTY WITH WEATHER WE'VE GOT GROWING DEMAND YET WE'RE LIKELY TO SEE VOLATILITY. SO THE KEY IS REWARD THE RALLIES RETAIN THE OWNERSHIP WHEN PRICES MOVE HIGHER BY PUTS TO PUT A FLOOR IN GET YOURSELF REALLY BALANCED YOU'RE NOT GOING TO BE ABLE GUESS  THIS WEATHER WE'VE SEEN THAT ALREADY THIS SPRING. ANYBODY THAT CAN OUT GUESS THIS WEATHER IS I GUESS MORE MAN THAN ME. BUT THAT'S THAT'S THE NATURE OF WHAT WE DO IN AGRICULTURE IS DEAL WITH WEATHER AND HOW A BALANCE APPROACHES TO HANDLE THAT. BRETT REAL QUICK WHAT DO YOU THINK? I WOULD AGREE A LOT OF WHAT HE'S SAYING. I THINK THAT THEY'RE GOING TO BE MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR RALLIES THIS YEAR THAN WHAT WE SAW IN THE PREVIOUS YEARS. I THINK THE BIG PICTURE STORY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A LOT MORE FRIENDLY THAN WHAT WE'VE SEEN. IT DOESN'T MEAN IT HAS TO HAPPEN RIGHT AWAY. BUT EVEN WITH A 171 YIELD BASICALLY WHERE WE'RE SITTING RIGHT NOW IF THEY DON'T REDUCE ACRES YOU'RE STILL WATCHING THE CARRY OUT SHRINK YOU'RE STILL WATCHING THE WORLD CARRY OUT SHRINK. SO IF YOU GET A RALLY YOU DO NEED TO DO SOMETHING ON IT. BUT LIKE WE SAID EARLIER GIVE YOURSELF SOME UPSIDE BECAUSE YOU NEVER KNOW WHEN IT'S THAT YEAR AND WHEN IT FINALLY CHANGES AND HOPEFULLY IT WILL BE THAT YEAR. THANK YOU BOTH FOR BEING HERE. WE'LL BE BACK WITH MORE US FARM REPORT AND JOHN PHIPPS IN JUST A MOMENT.

JOHN’S WORLD
TIS THE SEASON...AS WE STEP EVER SO GINGERLY..OR NOT.. INTO THE THROWS OF SUMMER....AND WHILE MOST OF US HAVE 4 SEASONS TO CONSIDER, JOHN PHIPPS ONLY HAS TWO IN HIS WORLD. JOHN. OVER THE YEARS, I HAVE SIMPLIFIED MY VIEW OF NATURE. FOR EXAMPLE, I HAVE REDUCED THE NUMBER OF SEASONS TO TWO: THE SEASON WHEN I WORRY ABOUT THE WEATHER, AND THE SEASON WHEN I DON'T. THE LATTER BEGINS WITH THE LAST FIELD OPERATION IN THE FALL AND ENDS ABOUT MID-FEBRUARY AS WE GET THE URGE TO GET GROWING. RIGHT NOW, THIS IS OTHER SEASON - WEATHER-WORRY SEASON. AND FOR THOSE LIKE ME WHO FRET FOR A HOBBY, TECHNOLOGY HAS GIVEN US NEW TOOLS TO FEED OUR ANXIETY. THERE ARE MORE WEATHER MODELS, FOR EXAMPLE. THERE ARE COMPARISONS BETWEEN THEM. THERE ARE SHORT AND LONG    RANGE FORECASTS, GLOBAL WEATHER PATTERNS, AND CLIMATE TRENDS TO MONITOR. MEANWHILE, BACK ON THE GROUND, WE WADE THROUGH DATA ON GROUND MOISTURE LEVELS, CROP CONDITIONS FROM SATELLITES OR DRONES, AND OF COURSE, THE FORECASTS AND OPINIONS OF METEOROLOGISTS. THE ODD THING TO ME IS EVEN AS OUR ABILITY TO PREDICT THE WEATHER HAS ADVANCED SIGNIFICANTLY IN MY LIFETIME, IT HASN'T REDUCED MUCH OF THE FUSSING ABOUT WHAT THE RESULTS OF THE WEATHER WILL BE ON OUR FARM. IF ANYTHING, IT HAS SIMPLY MOVED OUR ANXIETY BOUNDARY OUT A FEW DAYS. IN ESSENCE, WE'VE DEVELOPED THE PATTERN OF LIVING IN THE FUTURE INSTEAD OF THE PRESENT. I'M NOT SUGGESTING IGNORANCE WAS BLISS BACK IN THE DAYS OF WEATHER FORECASTING BY GOING OUTSIDE AND LOOKING AT THE SKY, BUT THE WHATTA-GONNA-DO FATALISM OF THOSE DAYS PROBABLY FREED UP A LOT OF TIME TO DO OTHER STUFF. OR BETTER YET TO JUST KICK BACK AND DO ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. OR AS IT'S CALLED TODAY, FISHING. NOW THAT SOUNDS LIKE AS GOOD A WAY TO WASTE SOME TIME AS I'VE HEARD.

TEASE
STILL TO COME...TAKING THE LONG LOOK AT THE RECENT RUN UP IN HOG PRICES, AND WE'LL CHECK IN ON MACHINERY TRENDS IN KANSAS AS WE GO ON THE ROAD WITH MACHINERY PETE. WE'LL BE RIGHT BACK.

HEADLINES
AHEAD ON THIS HALF HOUR.. CHECKING IN ON THE FARM ECONOMY. PLUS, <"I'M BETSY JIBBEN. WHAT DO ECONOMISTS SAY PORK PRICES COULD POTENTIALLY DO LONG TERM? WE'LL HAVE THAT STORY FROM DES MOINES, IOWA AT THE WORLD PORK EXPO,"> IN WEATHER. COOLER AIR TIME FOR SOME OF THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. I'LL HAVE MY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKCOMING UP IN WEATHER JOHN PHIPPS TAKES ON MEDICAID AND LONG TERM HEALTH CARE. MACHINERY PETE IS ON THE ROAD IN MCPHERSON KANSAS CHECKING EQUIPMENT TRENDS. AND STEP ON BOARD WITH THIS 1938 ALIS CHALMERS MODEL A FOR TRACTOR TALES.

RURAL MAINSTREET INDEX
NOW FOR THE HEADLINES...THE LATEST RURAL MAINSTREETINDEX SHOWS THE RURAL ECONOMY STUCK IN NEUTRAL. THE JUNE SURVEY FROM CREIGHTON UNIVERSITY SHOWS THE INDEX DROPPING SLIGHTLY TO 50--RIGHT AT THE MIDPOINT--INDICATING GROWTH NEUTRAL. DUE TO WEAK FARM INCOME, ALMOST ONE FOURTH OF BANKERS REPORT REJECTING A HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF FARMER LOAN APPLICATIONS AND ABOUT 60 PERCENT REPORT BOOSTING COLLATERAL REQUIREMENTS ON FARM LOANS. ON AVERAGE, BANKERS PROJECT FARMLAND PRICES WILL DECLINE BY ANOTHER 3 PERCENT OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS. AND MORE THAN THREE-FOURTHS OF BANK CEOS SAY A SHORTAGE OF QUALIFIED OR SKILLED WORKERS IS HAVING A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH. "THE PRESIDENT UNDERSTANDS THAT THE PROSPERITY AND RECOVERY HAS NOT BEEN UNIFORM AND HE UNDERSTANDS THAT MANY PEOPLE AND I GAVE SOME STATISTICS ABOUT RURAL POVERTY. AND ONE IN FOUR CHILDREN AND AND WE LOOK AT THE EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS. THEY'VE NOT COME UP TO PRE-2008. IN RURAL RURAL AREAS."

SECRETARY PERDUE MADE HIS COMMENTS FOLLOWING THE  INAUGURAL MEETING OF OF THE INTER-AGENCY TASK FORCE ON AGRICULTURE AND RURAL PROSPERITY. THE MEETING INCLUDED SEVERAL CABINET SECRETARIES WHO ARE CHARGED -AS A GROUP -WITH IMPROVING THE QUALITY OF LIFE FOR PEOPLE IN RURAL AREAS.

DOW DUPONT MERGER
ON THE MEGA-MERGER FRONT, DUPONT AND THE DOW CHEMICAL GETTING THE GREEN LIKE FROM THE DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE. THEY HAD ALREADY TO AGREED TO DIVEST PORTIONS OF THEIR BUSINESSES. THE MERGER CURRENTLY HAS APPROVALS IN THE U.S., EUROPE, BRAZIL AND CHINATHEY HOPE TO FINISH THE DEAL IN AUGUST AND SPIN-OFF  INTO SEPARATE BUSINESSES WITHIN 18 MONTHS.

BASF, SYNGENTA TO JOIN WITH MONSANTO
MEANWHILE, BLOOMBERG REPORTING BASFAND SYNGENTA BOTH SUBMITTING PRELIMINAR

AS IT SEEKS TO JOIN FORCES WITH MONSANTO. THE 66 BILLION DOLLAR TAKEOVER STILL NEEDS REGULATORY APPROVAL. BAYER PLANNING TO UNLOAD, CANOLA, COTTONSEED AND IT'S LIBERTYLINK ASSETS.


CHINA APPROVES GM TRAITS
CHINA ANNOUNCING APPROVAL OF TWO NEW GM TRAITS. DOW'S ENLIST PACKAGE...IS NOW APPROVED FOR CORN ALLOWING FARMERS TO USE A DUAL HERBICIDE WHICH CONTAINS 2,4-D CHOLINE AND GLYPHOSATE. THE COMPANY SAYS IT WILL LAUNCH ENLIST CORN IN THE U.S. AND CANADA IN 2018. CHINA ALSO APPROVING MONSANTO'S HIGH OLEIC VISTIVEGOLD SOYBEANS...

AMAZON BUYS WHOLE FOODS
A MAJOR SHAKE-UP IN THE GROCER SECTOR. ON-LINE GIANT AMAZON ANNOUNCING FRIDAY IT WILL PURCHASE WHOLE FOODS MARKET. IT'S A DEAL VALUED AT NEARLY 14-BILLION DOLLARS, INCLUDING DEBT. AMAZON-DOT-COM WILL PAY 42 DOLLARS A SHARE FOR WHOLE FOODS MARKET -THAT'S 18 PERCENT ABOVE WHOLE FOODS CLOSING PRICE ON THURSDAY.

WEATHER
THAT'S IT FOR NEWS...METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH A LONGER LOOK AT THE WEATHER. MIKE AS WE HIT MID JUNE IS THERE ANY TYPE OF PATTERN SETTING UP--EITHER MORE WET OR MORE DRY? WELL CLINTON OVERALL THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS LOOKS LIKE WE GET INTO A LITTLE COOLER WEATHER PATTERN IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST NOW. THAT USUALLY KEEPS IT DRY THERE AS WELL. SO THAT SHOVES THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. FARTHER SOUTH IT STAYS HOT OUT WEST AND HERE'S WHY YOU CAN SEE THE BIG RIDGE JUST GOING TO HOLD ITS PLACE EVEN THOUGH THERE'S A BIG TROUGH DEVELOPING IN EASTERN CANADA WITH PIECES OF ENERGY DIVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS GREAT LAKES IN THE NORTHEAST EVERY THREE OR FOUR DAYS AND SEE THE NEXT LITTLE BATCH ON WEDNESDAY DIVING IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AND THAT JUST KEEPS THE TROUGH KEEPS COOLER COOLER WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL. SO MY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 30 DAYS AND ONE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE WEST I'M GOING TO BRING THAT ACROSS THE DRY AREAS OF THE DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA AS WELL BELOW LOW FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND THAT'S MAINLY BECAUSE YOU'LL HAVE ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL WHICH EVEN THOUGH IT'LL BE WARM AND HUMID IT JUST WON'T BE QUITE AS HOT. AND THEN YOU CAN SEE BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE WEST WILL GO NEAR NORMAL FAR WEST BUT YOU TYPICALLY DON'T GET A WHOLE LOT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ANYWAY. CLINTON. 

FARM JOURNAL REPORT
LAST WEEK DES MOINES IOWA PLAYED HOST TO THE ANNUAL WORLD PORK EXPO. FROM FOOD TO TRADE SHOWS, COMPETITION AND POLICY MEETINGS-- A LOT HAPPENS AT THE WORLD'S LARGEST PORK-  SPECIFIC TRADE SHOW EVERY YEAR. AND THIS YEAR, VALUES ARE TURNING HEADS. LEAN HOG CONTRACTS CONTINUE TO LINGER NEAR THE80 DOLLAR MARK, A PRICE SOME DIDN'T EXPECT TO HANG ON THIS LONG...ESPECIALLY WITH A FLUSH OF PORK ON THE MARKET. NATIONAL REPORTER BETSY JIBBEN WAS AT THE EXPO   TALKING TO EXPERTS ABOUT THIS RECENT RUN IN PRICES. A FLUSH OF U.S. PORK IS ON THE MARKET BUT PORK INDUSTRY EXPERTS SAY THE REASON PRICES  CONTINUE IN THE GREEN ISN'T BECAUSE OF SUPPLY, BUT DEMAND. "SO FAR THIS YEAR IN 2017, WE'RE SEEING 15 PERCENT MORE EXPORTS OF PORK," "STRONG DEMAND IS SURE HOW WE WOULD EXPLAIN THE SITUATION OF MORE SUPPLY BUT EVEN HIGHER PRICES," EXPERTS SAY THE INCREASED APPETITE IS GLOBAL.  AND PIG SUPPLIES ARE NOT  GETTING SMALLER ANYTIME SOON. <"WE'RE PUSHING FOUR PERCENT MORE PORK THIS YEAR AND 4 PERCENT MORE PORK NEXT YEAR. WE'RE GOING TO BE PUSHING THOSE PER CAPITA OFFERINGS UP THERE AROUND 52 OR 53 POUNDS PER PERSON. WHICH IIS ABOUT AS HIHG AS WE'VE EVER SEEN,"> WHEN IT COMES TO PRICES, MEYER BELIEVES PRICES COULD EVENTUALLY  DECREASE A BIT COME FALL MOSTLY DUE TO SEASONAL BUYING. "WE HAVE HOGS IN THE UPPER 70S ON A MONTHLY AVERAGE BASIS THIS SUMMER. THAT WOULD BE A FEW 80 DOLLAR HOGS," MEYER SAYS PRODUCERS SHOULD CONSIDER TAKING ADVANTAGE OF FUTURES PRICES RIGHT NOW. "IF YOUR BALANCE SHEET SAYS YOU CAN'T ST AND MUCH RISK, YOU'RE GETTING A LOT OF GOOD PRICING OPPORTUNITIES WITH FUTURES RIGHT NOW. 2018? THOSE PRICES LOOK GOOD AS WELL," HURT IS ALSO EXPECTING CONTINUED STRONG PRICES. " WE THINK ABOUT 73 DOLLARS ON A LEAN BASIS FOR THE THIRD QUARTER   THIS YEAR, THAT COMPARES TO 64 DOLLARS LAST YEAR," <"THAT'S GOING TO CONTINUE INTO FALL WE THINK,"> E ANTICIPATES HIGHER PRICES ON IN TO THE FOURTH QUARTER. <'SO WHAT WE'RE ANTICIPATING THIS YEAR WHEN WE'RE TALKING 8 TO 9 DOLLAR HIGHER PRICES THAN YEAR AGO IN THE THIRD AND FOURTH QUARTER VERUS LAST YEAR AND THAT'S BECAUSE OF THE NEW PACKING PLANTS THAT ARE GOING TO BE ONLINE."> <"EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE AHANDFUL OF PROCESSING SPACES COMING ONLINE THIS FALL, SOME ANALYSTS FEEL AS IF IT STILL WON'T BE ENOUGH AND IT WILL ULTIAMTELY PRESSURE PRICES,"> <"IF WE WERE TO FILL ALL OF THESE PLANTS UP BY 2019 WE WOUDL HAVE ABOUT 10 PERCENT MORE HOGS THAN LAST YEAR PLSU WEIGHT GAINS. THAT'S A RAPID EXPANSION. WE THINK WE'LL EXPORT IT BUT THE EXPORT MARKET ISN'T LIMITLESS,"> THE PORK GROUPS ARE WORKING ON GROWING THOSE TRADING RELATIONSHIPS. WITH A TOP PRIORITY OF MAKING SURE MEXICO - THE LEADING VOLUME MARKET FOR US PORK-KEEPS BUYING.. THE PORK INDUSTRY WANTS ITS HAND IN THE NORTH AMERICAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT TO BE LEFT ALONE. WE PROBABLY WOULD HAVE LOST THAT MARKET HAD WE SCRAPPED NAFTA ENTIRELY, NEGEGOTIATING, WE'RE NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING BESIDES WHAT WE HAVE TODAY. >PRESIDENT TRUMP IS ALSO VOCAL ABOUT BI-LATERAL TRADE. PORK LEADERS WANT A DEAL WITH JAPAN-THE NUMBER ONE MARKET IN TERMS OF U.S. DOLLARS. <"WE HAVE EVERYTHING GOING FOR US IN JAPAN OTHER THAN THE FACT THAT WE DON'T HAVE AN FTA- WHICH UNTIMATELY ELIMINATES TRADE RESTRICTIONS AND BARRIERS TO ENTRY AND WOULD GET OUR QUOTAS AND DUTIES DOWN TO ZERO WITHIN A 15 YEAR PERIOD,"> DESPITE A RECORD-BREAKING MARCH AND SOLID APRIL FOR U.S. PORK EXPORTS, CANADA IS CURRENTLY OUT PACING THE U.S. IN PORK SALES TO CHINA - A BIG BUYER OF PORK. <" HIGHLY UNLIKELY, THERE WILL BE ANY TYPE OF A FREE TRADE AGREEMENT WITH THE CHINESE, THEY MAINTAIN THEIR INDEPENDENCE. WE THINK THEY WILL BE A BUYER OF U.S. PORK LONG-TERM BUT CERTAINLY WE EXPECT THAT VOLUME TO FLUCTUATE,"> SOME SAY THE DIP HAS TO DO WITH THE COUNTRY'S PRICES ON ITS DOMESTIC PORK SUPPLY. <"WE ALSO KNOW PORK PRICES TO CHINA THE LAST FOUR OR FIVE MONTHS HAVE BEEN FALLING WHICH, MAKES IT TOUGHER TO GET PRODUCT IN THERE,"> A BALANCING ACT BETWEEN INCREASING PRODUCTION AND EXPANDING TRADE FOR THE BENEFIT OF THE INDUSTRY. REPORTING AT WORLD PORK EXPO IN DES MOINES, IOWA, I'M BETSY JIBBEN. THANKS BETSY. MEYER SAYS THERE ARE OTHER EXPORT MARKETS GAINING STEAM... INCLUDING AUSTRALIA, HONDURAS, THE PHILIPPINES, DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND COLOMBIA. WHEN WE COME BACK, CUSTOMER SUPPORT WITH JOHN PHIPPS.

CUSTOMER SUPPORT
AS YOU KNOW JOHN LIKES TO TAKE ON VERY SIMPLE...UNCOMPLICATED TOPICS...YOU KNOW, LIKE MEDICAID AND LONGTERM HEALTHCARE. HERE'S JOHN. I HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS ABOUT MEDICAID AND NURSING HOMES AND AM WAITING FOR FINAL LEGISLATION TO ANSWER THEM, BUT I CAN TACKLE THIS ONE ON INSURANCE FROM ERIC LANG. "HINDSIGHT INDICATES THAT MANY WOULD HAVE BEEN BETTER OFF WITH A LOW COST TERM LIFE POLICY, NO CASH VALUE AND SEPARATE COVERAGE FOR PHYSICAL DISABILITY AND THE NEED FOR NURSING HOME CARE IN OLD AGE, OR EARLIER. ALZHEIMER AND THE ASSOCIATED CARE COSTS WILL BURN THROUGH 160 OR 240 ACRES IN A FEW YEARS. NURSING HOME INSURANCE MITIGATES THAT RISK AND IS USEFUL WHILE ONE IS STILL LIVING, UNLIKE LIFE INSURANCE. SO IS THE CASE WITH A SERIOUS FARM OR OTHER ACCIDENT AND DISABILITY INSURANCE." THANKS FOR THE GREAT QUESTION, ERIC. INSURANCE DECISIONS ARE SHAPED BY INDIVIDUAL RISK TOLERANCE AND LONG TERM CARE INSURANCE (LTCI) IS NO DIFFERENT. LET'S THROW SOME NUMBERS OUT. THE MOST COMMON STATISTIC YOU SEE REGARDING LONG TERM CARE IS THIS ONE: 70% OF THOSE WHO REACH 65 WILL NEED LONG TERM CARE. BUT BECAUSE OF HOW LTCI IS WRITTEN, ONLY 35% OF THOSE WHO BUY INSURANCE AT AGE 60 ACTUALLY RECEIVE ANY BENEFITS. MOSTLY THIS IS DUE TO A 90-DAY WAITING PERIOD BEFORE BENEFITS BEGIN. IT'S ALSO BECAUSE 10 DAYS OF CARE RECOVERING FROM AN OPERATION FOR EXAMPLE, QUALIFIES AS LONG TERM CARE SO THAT 70% NUMBER IS SOMEWHAT INFLATED IN MY OPINION. LTCI HAS ALSO PRESENTED PROBLEMS WITH BENEFIT CAPS, COMPLICATED BENEFIT PROCEDURES AND COMPANIES GOING BANKRUPT. HERE ARE SOME OTHER NUMBERS. THE AVERAGE COST OF SKILLED CARE IN A NURSING HOME WAS ABOUT $90,000 PER YEAR WITH EXTREME VARIATIONS BETWEEN STATES. THE AVERAGE STAY IS LESS THAN THREE YEARS, WITH ONLY 12% LASTING LONGER THAN 5 YEARS. THOSE SITUATIONS TEND TO STAND OUT MORE PROMINENTLY IN OUR THINKING HOWEVER. ALMOST FORGOTTEN IS MOST LONG TERM CARE SERVICES ARE DELIVERED AT HOME, AND THOSE AVERAGE OVER $40,000 PER YEAR. NURSING HOME INSURANCE IS EXPENSE, RUNNING 3000 TO 5000 DOLLARS PER YEAR AND PREMIUMS HAVE BEEN ESCALATING SHARPLY. WHETHER IT IS WORTH IT IS A DIFFICULT CALL. HYBRID PRODUCTS OF LIFE INSURANCE AND LTCI ARE MUCH MORE COMPLEX AND HAVE NOT BEEN AROUND LONG ENOUGH FOR GOOD ANALYSIS, BUT MIGHT BE HELPFUL. THE MOST IMPORTANT POINT FOR FARMERS IS SCHEMES TO REDUCE ASSETS LIKE FARMLAND SO THAT YOU QUALIFY FOR MEDICAID MAY NOT BE VIABLE OPTIONS IF POSSIBLE MEDICAID CUTS ARE ENACTED. IF THAT HAPPENS, LTCI MAY MERIT A SECOND LOOK.

ON THE ROAD WITH MACHINERY PETE
BEFORE SHE LEFT, TYNE MORGAN HIT THE ROAD WITH MACHINERY PETE. WE'LL TALK EQUIPMENT TRENDS FROM THE HEART OF KANSAS AFTER THE BREAK. AND LATER A 38- MODEL A ROLLS THROUGH TRACTOR TALES.THERE WAS NO SHORTAGE OF RAIN IN KANSAS THIS SPRING. WHILE IT CREATED A FEW HICCUPS PLANTING, IT'S ALSO CREATING A FEW CHALLENGES FOR CUSTOM HARVESTERS THIS YEAR. BUT SO FAR, FEED QUALITY OF THIS YEAR'S CROP IS ON PAR, AND DEMAND FOR CHOPPERS AT EQUIPMENT DEALERS LIKE  PRARIELAND PARTNERS IS PICKING UP. THIS WEEK,  TYNE MORGAN AND MACHINERY PETE ARE ON THE ROAD IN MCPHERSON, KANSAS, WHERE 2017 IS OFF TO A SOLID START. LOOKS LIEK THEY'RE STARTING A NEW FIELDTECHNOLOGY IS CHANGING THE GAME FOR SAM SHIPPER'S BUSINESS. THEY'RE SETTING UP THE NEW FIELD NAME AND THE FARMER> AS A CUSTOM HARVESTER, HE'S ON THE ROAD 8 MONTHS  OUT OF THE YEAR. <I'LL SEE THE INSTANT MOITURE THE AVERAGE MOSTURE THE YIELD>BUT IT'S BEING ABLE TO TRACK THINGS LIKE MOISTURE AND YIELD FROM HIS PHONE, HELPING HIS CREW BECOME MORE EFFICIENT. <WE'RE A 3 CHOPPER CREW, WE'LL RUN UP TO 20 TO 25 SEMIS, >FROM TEXAS ALL THE WAY TO KANSAS, WHEN IT'S BUSY, HIS CREW IS RUNNING NONSTOP. <IT VAIRES BUT ON AN AVERAGE I'M SOMWHERE BETWEEN 950 TO 1200 HOURS A YEAR PER MACHINE>IN IOWA, GARY WICHERS WORKS ON AN 11 HUNDRED HEAD DAIRY, RUNNING ONE CHOPPER FOR FEED EACH YEAR. <WE PROBBALY PUT 200 HOURS ON IT A YEAR. SO USUALLY ABOUT 8 900 HOURS ON IT WHEN WE TRADE IT OFF>THIS YEAR, HAY SEASON IS ALREADY UNDERWAY, WITH WICHERS' FIRST CUTTING UNDER HIS BELT. <HAY CROP HAS BEEN PRETTY GOOD... IT'S BEEN REALLY GOOD.> MEANWHILE, SHIPPERS HAS ALREADY BEEN IN THE FIELD FOR  ABOUT THREE MONTHS. WHILE  MILES AWAY, BOTH OPERATORS TURN TO PRAIRIELAND PARTNERS TO DO BUSINESS. AND URI MILLER SAYS IT'S TECHNOLOGY HELPING RAISE HTE BAR WITH QUALITY FEED. <WITH THE TECHNOLOGY NOW THAT WE HAVE IN THESE CHOPPERS, IT'S LIKE MAKING WINE. YOU WOULDN'T PUT USED SOUR GRAPES ADN EXPECT WINE AND WITH THE TECHNOOGY WE HAVE NOW, WE CAN MONITOR THE STARCH, THE PROTEIN THE MOISUTRE EVEN BEFORE IT EVER GETS TO THE PIT><IT'S GOTTEN TO THE POINT NOW IN TH FALL, WHERE THEY DON'T EVEN  CHECK MY MOISTURE AT THE FEEDLOT> WHETHER IT'S RUNNING A 3 CHOPPER CREW, OR JUST OPERATING ONE MACHINE, BOTH OPERATORS SAY THEY CAN'T AFFORD DOWNTIME. <WHEN YOU'RE CHOPPING IRRIGATD CORN IN THE CORN BELT, IT'S SOMEWHERE AROUND IN THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, IT'S SOMEWHERE AROUND 18 DOLLARS A MINUTE I LOSE>IT'S THESE OPERATORS CREATING THE STRONG DEMAND FOR CHOPPERS RIGHT NOW. <AND I HEAR A LOT OF CUSTOM GUYS THAT SAY THEIR DAIRIES ARE EXPANDING> <THE EASE OF SELLING A NEW CHOPPER, I DON'T KNOW IF IT'S A SURPISE, BUT IT'S CERTIANLY SOMETHING THAT HIT US A LITTLE BIT. YOU KNOW, WE PROBABLY SHOULD HAVE CLEANED UP OUR USED INVENTORY QUICKER, >MACHINERY PETE SAYS THE CHOPPER MARKET IS A TRICKY  ONE TO TRACK<IT'S INTERESTING WITH CHOPPERS A LITTLE LIKE PLANTERS WHERE YOU'LLSEE THE DMAND TO BUY NEW CAN BE VERY STRONG YOU'LL HVAE DEALERS THAT DON'T HAVE ENOUGH CHOPPERS TO SELL. >DEPRESSED COMMODITY PRICES HAVE MADE EQUIPMENT A TOUGH SELL FOR THE PAST FEW YEARS. EACH MONTH, CREIGHTON UNIVERSITY PUTS OUT A RURAL MAINSTREEINDEX, PROVIDING A PULSE OF THE AG ECONOMY THROUGH THE EYES OF RURAL BANKERS. . THE LATEST SHOWED AG EQUIPMENT SALES INDEX JUMPED TO IT'S HIGHEST LEVEL IN MORE THAN TWO YEARS. <IT ACTUALLY JIVES PERFECTLY WITH THE QUARTERLY INDEX WE PUT OUT. AND OUR INDEX STARTED TO INCH UP IN NOVEMBER. BUT HE SAYS THERE'S STILL PLENTY OF USED EQUIPMENT TO BUY. <WE'RE STILL RECOVERING. THERE WAS A LOT OF USED EQUIOPMENT ON DELAER LOTS, 3 TO 4 YEARS AGO, WHEN COMMODITY PRICES FELL AND ITS' BEEN A PROCES STO GET THAT CLEARED OUT. AND IT'S NOT SOLVED BUT IT'S MUCH BETTER < BUT WE ARE SEEING A LITTLE UPTICK IN SOME OFO THOSE AREAS, PARTICULARLY SMALL TRACTOSR UNDER 120 HORSE, A LITTLE UPTICK AND RECENTLY A LITTL EMORE INTEREST IN HAY SIDE BC CATTLE PRICE A RE A LITTLE BETTER>WHILE THE REST OF 2016'S STORY IS STILL UNTOLD, PLENTIFULMOISTURE AND A THE PROMISE OF A BOUNTIFUL WHEAT CROP IS MOVING MOODS IN KANSAS. FROM MCPHERSON, KANSAS, I'M TYNE MORGAN. THANKS, TYNE. TUNE IN NEXT MONTH. SHE'S ON THE ROAD WITH MACHINERY PETE TO MEXICO, MISSOURI. WHEN WE COME BACK, MACHINERY PETE REJOINS US FOR THIS WEEK'S TRACTOR TALES.

TRACTOR TALES
WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES FOLKS!  THIS WEEK WE HAVE AN A FROM MISSOURI AND IT STANDS FOR ALLIS-CHALMERS!   DAVID MADDOX FOUND THIS CLASSIC ALLIS IN A FIELD WITH 4 OTHER A'S.  HE CAME HOME WITH THIS ONE AND IS PROUD TO HAVE IT IN HIS COLLECTIONWHAT WE'VE GOT HERE IS 1938. ALIS-CHALMERS MODEL A. THERE WERE ONLY TWELVE HUNDRED OF THOSE TRACTORS BILL. AND THERE'S BEEN QUITE A FEW LOST THROUGH THE YEARS OR SCRAPPED YOU KNOW SO WE'RE NOT CERTAIN HOW MANY STILL EXIST. THIS TRACTOR WAS FOUND ON A WHEAT FARM IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. I THINK IT WAS IN 2005 WHEN THEY FOUND IT. IT WAS ON AN OLD ABANDONED WHEAT FARM AND THERE WERE FIVE OF THEM SET IN THERE AND THEY GOT LOOKING AT SERIAL NUMBERS AND THEY KEEP A SERIAL NUMBER REGISTRATION OF ALL THESE DAYS NOBODY HAD EVER FOUND THE LAST DAY THEY GOT TO LOOKING AT SERIAL NUMBERS. AND THAT TRACTOR WAS IN THAT GROUP OF TRACTOR. NO I DON'T OWN THAT TRACTOR. MY MY POCKETS WEREN'T DEEP ENOUGH TO OWN THAT ONE. BUT IT ENDED UP GOING UP INTO CANADA. WE KIND OF WENT THROUGH IT AND FIXED IT UP. THE TRANSMISSION WAS IN REALLY BAD SHAPE AND WE HAD TO FIND SOME TRANSMISSION PARTS FOR IT AND LUCKILY I KNEW THE RIGHT PEOPLE TO CALL AND WE FOUND WHAT WE HAD TO HAVE THAT THOSE PARTS ARE REALLY HARD TO COME BY NOW AND THEN OTHER THAN THAT JUST CLEAN IT UP AND AND PAINT IT AND PUT NEW TIRES ON IT. AND LITTLE MACHINE WORK ON THE FRONT END TO MAKE IT TIGHTER. BUT OTHER THAN THAT IT WAS A PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD RESTORATION ON THE SEAT CUSHION. I HAD THE OCCASION TO SEE A AND ORIGINAL SEAT CUSHION TO ONE OF THESE TRACTORS. THERE WASN'T MUCH LEFT TO IT IT WAS JUST FLAT AS A PANCAKE. AROUND THE SAME SO THE CUSHION THEY HAD THE ORANGE PIPING AND THEN OF COURSE BLACK VINYL. BUT SO ALL MY SEATS THAT PADDED SEATS THAT ARE LIKE THAT THEY'VE GOT THE ORANGE PIPING AROUND THE SEAMS OR KINDA JUST GLAD TO   HAVE IT AND HAVE A TINY

COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE
TODAY'S COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE GOES TO ST JANE FRANCES DE CHANTAL CHURCH, LOCATED IN RANDOLPH, NEBRASKA. THE CONGREGATION IS CELEBRATING 125 YEARS THIS SUMMER CONGRATULATIONSA ND OUR THANKS TO DEACON DOUG TUNINK FOR SHARING THEIR STORY. AS ALWAYS WE WANT TO LEARN ABOUT YOUR HOME CHURCH AS WELL... SALUTES CAN BE SENT TO THE ADDRESS ON THE SCREEN.  STAY WITH US - FROM THE FARM PHOTOS ARE NEXT.

FROM THE FARM
WELCOME BACK, OF COURSE WE LIKE TO END THE SHOW  WITH A COLLECTION OF FUN FROM THE FARM PHOTOS. AND CLINTON I WOULDN'T CALL THIS FUN, BUT IT IS PRETTY AMAZING. TAKE A LOOK AT THIS FROM CHRIS CLIFFORD ON TWITTER. A WIND TURBINE TOPPLING THIS WEEK NEAR DILLER NEBRASKA. CHRIS HADN'T HEARD WHAT ULTIMATELY CAUSED THE TOWER TO FAIL BUT THE COMPANY TOLD NEWS OUTLETS IT HAPPENED SHORTLY BEFORE 5 A.M. TUESDAY. THIS WIND FARM IS LOCATED ON ABOUT 10,500 ACRES OF AGRICULTURAL LAND IN JEFFERSON AND GAGE COUNTIES. AND I'M SURE MANY OF YOU OBSERVED FLAG DAY THIS PAST WEEK. WES MILLS SHARING THIS BEAUTY FROM HIS FRONT PORCH. AND WE END WITH A FRESH PARODY FROM OUR FAVORITE KANSAS FARM BROS--THE PETERSON BROTHERS. THEY'RE IN LOVE WITH THE RESIDUE. TALKING A LITTLE SOIL HEALTH AND COVER CROPS ON THAT ONE. NICE WORK FELLAS. IF YOU HAVE A PICTURE OR VIDEO YOU'D LIKE TO SEND IN, SEND THOSE TO MAILBAG-AT-U-S-FARM-REPORT-DOT-COM OR CHECK US OUT ON FACEBOOKAND TWITTER.

CLOSE
FROM ALL OF US AT U.S. FARM REPORT, I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. TYNE WILL BE BACK NEXT WEEK. THANK YOU FOR WATCHING U-S FARM REPORT. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND, EVERYONE.

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