USFR Weekly Recap - June 30-July 1, 2018

July 1, 2018 03:30 AM
 

TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
JUNE 30-JULY 1, 2018

HEADLINES

WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M TYNE MORGAN, AND HERE'S WHAT'S IN STORE OVER THE NEXT 60  MINUTES. TARIFF THREATS CONTINUE TO WEIGH ON THE MARKET,  BUT COULD USDA'S FRIDAY REPORTS CHANGE THE  TONE IN THE WEEKS AHEAD ? AG SECRETARY SONNY PERDUE TRYING TO EASE  FARMERS' FEARS  WE ACTUALLY MET YESTERDAY LOOKING AT THE BALANCE SHEET  THERE AND WHAT OUR EXPECTATIONS ARE GOING FORWARD REGARDING OUR CAPACITY TO DO THAT.> PERDUE SAYING THE PRESIDENT WILL PROTECT U-S FARMERS FROM POSSIBLE TRADE FALLOUT.  A MICHIGAN UNIVERSITY DAIRY FEELING THE PAIN OF  LOWER MILK PRICES, FORCED TO CALL IT QUITS. OVERALL, WE NEED ABOUT 16 DOLLARS PER HUNDREDWEIGHT TO BREAK  EVEN,  THE FINAL CHATPER OF THE CENTURY- OLD DAIRY.  PLUS, JOHN'S WORLD

NEWS
NOW FOR THE NEWS, AS THE MARKETS ARE OVERCOME BY TRADE FEARS AND OTHER MARKET PRESSURES  MOST OF THE WEEK, USDA UPDATING ITS ACREAGE  FORECAST ON FRIDAY, WITH TRADE EXPECTING THE  AGENCY TO SLIGHTLY BOOST BOTH CORN AND BEAN  ACRES.  USDA BOOSTING ACREAGE ACROSS THE BOARD AND SHOWS FARMERS PLANTED MORE SOYBEAN ACRES THAN CORN FOR HTE FIRST TIME IN 35 YEARS. CORN ACRES ARE PEGGED AT 89 POINT 1 MILLION, MORE THAN A MILLION ABOVE WHAT THE AGENCY SHOWED IN MARCH.SOYBEAN ACRES ALSO BEING BOOSTED, TO 89 POINT 6 MILLION.USDA SHOWING A MORE WHEAT ACRES, UP TO 47 POINT 8 MILLION.COTTON ALSO SAW A SLIGHT BUMP TO 13 POINT 52 MILLION.AND SORGHUM PLANTINGS NOW FORECAST AT 6 POITN 04 MILLION. USDA ALSO SHOWING QUARTERLY GRAIN STOCK. CORN STOCKS SIT AT 5 POINT 3 BILLION BUSHELS, AN INCREASE OF 1 POITN 5 PERCENT FROM THIS TIME LAST YEAR. SOYBEANS SIT AT 1 POINT 22 BILLION, ALSO UP FROM LAST YEAR, BUT A MUCH STEEPER INCLINE AT 26 AND A HALF PERCENT. IMMEIDATELY AFTER THE REPORT, GRAINS AND SOYBEANS TRADING IN THE GREEN  DAIRY FARMERS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MORE MILK. USDA SAYS MILK PRODUCTION IN MAY WAS NEARLY ONE- PERCENT HIGHER THAN A YEAR AGO IN THE TOP 23 MILK  PRODUCING STATES. . TOTAL PRODUCTION HIT 17-POINT-NINE BILLION  POUNDS. . PER COW PRODUCTION ALSO CLIMBED TO JUST OVER  TWO THOUSAND POUNDS. USDA SAYS THIS IS THE  HIGHEST PER COW MILK PRODUCTION SINCE 2003, THE U-S HOG HERD IS GROWING.  USDA SAYS AS OF JUNE FIRST, THERE ARE 73 POINT 5  MILLION HOGS AND PIGS ON FARMS. A THREE PERCENT  SPIKE FROM LAST YEAR, AND A 1 PERCENT BUMP FROM  MARCHAND 67 MILLION OF THE HERD WAS MARKET HOGS.  BETWEEN MARCH AND MAY, THE REPORT SHOWED JUST  OVER 33 MILLION HOGS WERE WEANED, UP 4 PERCENT FROM LAST YEAR. THE SENATE FARM BILL EASLOY PASSING THIS WEEK,  WITH A VOTE OF 86 FOR, AND 11 AGAINST.  IT WAS A FARM BILL THAT WAS SUPPOSED TO BE THE  LEAST CONTROVERSIAL OUT OF THE TWO CHAMBERS.  BUT AFTER INTENSE DEBATE IN THE SENATE, PASSING A  FARM BILL WASN'T AS SMOOTH AS SENATE LEADERS  HOPED, HITTING ROADBLOCKS DURING THE  AMENDMENT PROCESS THIS WEEK.  THAT INCLUDED FLORIDA SENATOR MARCO RUBIO'S  EFFORTS TO REJECT NORTH DAKOTA SENATOR HEIDI  HEITKAMP'S AMENDMENT TO DEVELOP EXPORT  MARKETS IN CUBA.  IOWA SENATOR CHUCK GRASSLEY'S AMMENDMENT TO  PLACE TIGHTER PAYMENT CAPS ON COMMODITY  SUBSIDIES PASSED THE SENATE'S APPROVAL.   ANALYSTS SAY THE TOUGHEST ISSUE TO WORK  THROUGH IN CONFRENCING THE TWO BILLS IS SNAP  AND TYING WORK REQUIREMENTS TO THE PROGRAM. LSO THIS WEEK, THE HOUSE REJECTING ANOTHER  RUN AT IMMIGRATION REFORM.  LAWMAKERS OVERWHELMINGLY REJECTED THE BILL IN  A 121-301 VOTE, FALLING WELL SHORT OF THE ROUGHLY  218 VOTES NEEDED TO PASS.  NO DEMOCRATS VOTED IN FAVOR OF THE BILL. AN AMENDMENT FROM REPRESENTATIVE BOB GOODLATTE-- THE AG ACT-- ALSO PULLED FROM THE  LEGISLATION AHEAD OF THE VOTE. IT WOULD HAVE MADE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE  NATION'S GUEST WORKER PROGRAM. THE BIGGEST THING I WOULD SAY IS ALL OF OUR INDUSTRY HAS  FAILED TO GET ANY MOVEMENT IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES FOR  THE LAST 20 YEARS. WE HAVE PASSED BILLS IN THE SENATE TO GO NOWHERE BUT OUR STRATEGY IN THE HOUSE HAS NOT BEEN WORKING. 38  (TAKE OUT MIDDLE) 48 YOU GOT TO UNDERSTAND THE TWO BODIES ARE  DIFFERENT AND WE PREACH THIS. WE SAY LET'S GO GET THE BEST VOTE IN  THE HOUSE AND THE BEST IN THE SENATE AND LET'S GET A COMPROMISE  BUT LET'S GET SOMETHING DONE IN OUR INDUSTRY BECAUSE THIS IS OUR  NUMBER ONE PROBLEM. IT HAS BEEN FOR  TWO DECADES AND YET WE  HAVEN'T SOLVED THE PROBLEM."> CARR SAYS H2A IS A BROKEN PROGRAM THAT'S DIFFICULT TO USE. THAT'S WHY HE SUPPORTS H2C. ALSO IN WASHINGTON, DEMOCRATIC SENATORS  ROLLING OUT A BILL THAT EXTENDS OVERTIME RIGHTS  TO ALL AGRICULTURAL WORKERS. THE NEW OVERTIME PROTECTIONS WOULD REQUIRE  FARMERS TO PAY WORKERS TIME AND A HALF FOR  EVERY HOUR THEY WORK BEYOND 40 IN A WEEK.ANALYSTS SAY THE BILL IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE IT  THROUGH CONGRESS.  EPA ROLLING OUT ITS 2019 RFS VOLUME  REQUIREMENTS, SPARKING AN UPROAR FROM ETHANOL  GROUPS, DEMANDING EPA TO REALLOCATE AND  ADDRESS THE BIOFUELS THAT WERE WAIVED.  EPA MANDATING REFINERS BLEND 19.88 BILLION  GALLONS OF BIOFUELS INTO THE NATION'S FUEL  SUPPLY NEXT YEAR, A 3 PERCENT BOOST.. THE 15 BILLION GALLON QUOTA FOR CONVENTIONAL  RENEWABLE FUELS LEFT UNCHANGED. THAT INCLUDES  CORN-BASED ETHANOL, THE EPA IS ALSO PROPOSING A 2.43 BILLION GALLON QUOTA FOR BIODIESEL IN 2020. THAT'S A NEAR 16 PERCENT (15.7 PERCENT) INCREASE  FROM THE 2.1 BILLION GALLONS REQUIRED IN 2019.) ETHANOL GROUPS  AND IOWA SENTAOR CHUCK  GRASSLEY CALLING FOR THE LOST GALLONS TO BE  REALLOCATED AND A MORE TRANSPARENT PROCESS  FOR THE WAIVERS. AG SECRETARY SONNY PERDUE AGREES.  <"  HERE AT USDA, WE ARE GOING TO HOLD FIRMLY THAT IF WE HAVE  AN RVO, IT OUTTA BE AN HONEST NUMBER, AND NOT ONE WHICH HAS A LEAK OUT THE BACKDOOR WITH WAIVERS WHICH ARE NOT ACCOUNTED  FOR,"> MEANWHILE, OIL PRICES RALLYIGN THIS WEEK TO A  THREE YAR HIGH. CRUDE OIL HIT THE HIGHEST LEVEL  SINCE 2014 AS SUPPLIES POSTED A LARGE WEEKLY  DROP. THE PRICE RALLY IS ALSO OVER THREATS THE U- S WOULD SACTION COUTNRIES THAT DON'T STOP  IMPORTING OIL FROM IRAN.  AG SECRETARY SONNY PERDUE TRYING TO EASE  FARMER TRADE WAR FEARS, WRITING AN OP-ED  MONDAY FOCUSING ON THE TRADE TENSIONS AND  TELLING FARMERS HE'S WORKING ON TOOLS TO HELP  EASE THE BURDEN. WRITING AN OP-ED IN USA-TODAY MONDAY, SECRETARY PERDUE HOPING TO EASE FARMER CONCERNS REGARDING  CHINA'S RESPONSE TO THE  ADMINISTRATION'S HARD LINE ON INTELLECTUAL  PROPERTY THEFT AND TARIFFS. PERDUE  STARTING WITH THE CASE INVOLVING CHINESE  NATIONALS DIGGING UP GM SEEDS IN CORN FIELDS  ACROSS THE MIDWEST. HE SAYS QUOTE,"CHINA, WHICH WRONGLY BELIEVES IT CAN BULLY  OUR FARMERS TO GET AMERICA TO BACK AWAY FROM DEFENDING OUR  NATIONAL INTERESTS..."  ADDING THAT THE PRESIDENT HAS INSTRUCTED HIM TO  CRAFT A STRATEGY TO SUPPORT OUR FARMERS IN THE FACE OF RETALIATORY TARIFFS. "WE HAVE NOT UNVEILED OUR STRATEGY, AS IT IS NOT GOOD PRACTICE TO  OPEN OUR PLAYBOOK WHILE THE OPPOSING TEAM IS WATCHING, BUT EXACTLY HOW THAT PLAN WOULD LOOK ON PAPER  IS STILL UP IN THE AIR.   WE ACTUALLY MET YESTERDAY LOOKING AT THE BALANCE SHEET  THERE AND WHAT OUR EXPECTATIONS ARE GOING FORWARD REGARDING OUR CAPACITY TO DO THAT. 8:03> "SO, WHILE CCC IS PART OF THE TOOL IN THERE. IT'S NOT  EVERYTHING AND THAT'S WHY WE ARE NOT LAYING OUT THE WHOLE PLAYBOOK FOR THE DEFENSE TO LOOK AT. 7:47> PERDUE SAYING HE DOESN'T WANT TO IMPLEMENT A  PLAN UNTIL NECESSARY. 

TEASE
THAT'S IT FOR THE NEWS. BUT WE'LL TAKE A DEEPER DIVE INTO THE LATEST ACREAGE AND QUARTERLY GRAIN STOCKS REPORT WITH BOB UTTERBACK AND DOUG WERLING LATER IN THE SHOW. BUT UP NEXT, MOTHER NATURE TURNING UP THE HEAT. IS ANY RELIEF IN SIGHT? A CHECK OF WEATHER IS NEXT. 

WEATHER
MIKE, MOTHER NATURE TURNED UP THE HEAT THIS WEEK. DO WE GET A REPRIEVE AS WE HEAT INTO JULY?  TYNE NOT REALLY AS WE HEAD INTO JULY BUT AS WE HEAD  THROUGH JULY THERE WILL BE A REPRIEVE IN SOME AREAS WE'LL BE  TALKING ABOUT THAT BY THE WAY. COMING UP HERE'S THE LATEST  DROUGHT MONITOR. AND ONE THING YOU'LL NOTICE IS IT'S GETTING DRY.  EARLIER IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO OTHER PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND  LOUISIANA A LITTLE BIT DRYER ALSO IN NORTHERN MISSOURI UNFORTUNATELY  THERE IS A MONTH AGO ADDING THROUGH THE NET ERKEL RIDING THROUGH THE NEXT FOUR WEEKS YOU CAN SEE HOW THINGS HAVE JUST  EXPANDED. BUT I DO WANT TO POINT OUT ONE THING UNLIKE WHAT WE  SEE IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE IT'S JUST A WIDESPREAD AREA. IT'S  SPLOTCHY FARTHER EAST. THE REASON FOR THAT IS THERE HAVE BEEN  SOME THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE HELPED SPOTS LIKE IN THE  PANHANDLE OF TEXAS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA NORTHERN TEXAS SO IT JUST  KIND OF DEPENDS ON EXACTLY WHERE THOSE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE  OCCURRED. HERE'S WHAT WE'RE LOOKING AT AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS WEEK. A BIG RIDGE GREAT LAKES IN THE NORTHEAST THAT WILL BE BEING  CUT DOWN BY THE NEXT TROUGH TRYING TO DIG IN. BUT THEN YOU'LL  NOTICE THE RIDGE KIND OF BUILD BACK UP AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND AND THAT TROUGH STARTS TO DIG IN AS WE  HEAD TOWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WE'LL BEGIN TO SEE SOME COOLER  AIR COMING INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN THE NORTHEAST AND THAT CONTINUES TO COME IN. SO THERE WILL BE A REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT  FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST AS WE  HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND NO DOUBT ABOUT IT.  IT LOOKS LIKE BECAUSE THE RIDGE IS GOING TO START BUILDING OUT  WEST AND THAT MIGHT BE A PATTERN THAT WE GET INTO AS WE HEAD  THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF SUMMER. LET'S GO DAY BY DAY. HERE'S MONDAY STORM SYSTEM NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES. WE HAVE  THIS INTERESTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COMING OFF THE GULF OF  MEXICO ON OUR COMPUTER MODELS NOW. RIGHT NOW I'M NOT  CONFIDENT ON ITS MOVEMENT. SO KEEP THAT IN MIND. WE'RE GOING TO  SHOW A KIND OF MEANDERING DOWN THERE WHEREVER THAT IS IT COULD  BRING SOME DECENT RAINS WHICH COULD BE SOME GOOD NEWS FOR  YOU FOLKS IN TEXAS AS WE'LL GET TO THESE ARE JUST BE HIT AND MISS  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ROCKIES. YOU CAN SEE BY  WEDNESDAY THE 4TH OF JULY WE ACTUALLY HAVE THAT AREA OF LOW  PRESSURE MOVING WEST AGAIN AND NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON THAT  COMPUTER MODELS HAVE REAL TROUBLE WITH THAT SITUATION. BUT THE  HEAT IS ON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THERE IS THAT COOL FRONT COMING IN WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY  FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE GREAT LAKES. OTHERWISE  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE GULF COAST AREA. HERE'S MY  A 90 DAY FORECAST FIRST FOR JULY. NO BELOW NORMAL AREA BUT NEAR  NORMAL TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST THE REST OF THE  COUNTRY MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AUGUST WILL INTRODUCE A BELOW NORMAL AREA FOR THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BUT  THE SOUTHEAST ALL THE WEST ABOVE NORMAL AS FAR AS SEPTEMBER  GOES WILL EXPAND THIS BOLLO AREA A LITTLE BIT MORE INTO THE MOST OF THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHEAST COAST GULF COAST MOST OF THE WEST  ABOVE NORMAL AND THEN PRECIPITATION.  THIS IS ALWAYS THE TOUGHEST CALL IN THE SUMMER BECAUSE OF  THE HIT IN THIS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS SO WE'RE GOING TO KEEP IT NEAR NORMAL. MOST OF THE CORN BELT FROM THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH  MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST ABOVE NORMAL CENTRAL MOUNTAINS  SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS ABOVE NORMAL AND ALSO SOUTH TEXAS  EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL TYNE.  

TEASE
USDA GAVE A FRESH LOOK AT US ACREAGE. HOW COULD IT IMPACT THE MARKETS IN TEH WEEK AHEAD?  BOB UTTERBACK AND DOUG WERLING JOIN ME NEXT.  

ROUNDTABLE 1
WELCOME BACK TO US FARM REPORT. WELL BACK BEFORE THE BREAK I SAID WE HAVE FOBBING WITH US THIS WEEKEND THANK YOU SO MUCH TO JOIN US AFTER A HUGE REPORT DAY IN FACT APPARENTLY BOB BROUGHT SOME STRESS RELIEF. NOW THIS IS ONE OF THOSE DAYS WHEN THAT BUSH HOG STRESS RAISER CAME IN HANDY JUST GOING INTO THE REPORT. THE MARKET HAD A LOT OF ANXIETY. WERE WE TOO BEARISH GOING IN. HOW WAS IT FACTORED IN. AND AFTER ALL THE DUST HAS SETTLED IT DOES DO ANY DAMAGE DONE RIGHT. YEAH SURE. BUT LOOK LET'S LOOK AT SOME OF THIS BECAUSE WE HAD SOME TWO MAJOR REPORTS BOB ACREAGE AND WE SAW SOYBEAN ACREAGE TOP CORN FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 35 YEARS YET CORN OCCURRED. WE SAW A MILLION ACRE BOOST IN USDA ACREAGE NUMBER I MEAN WE SAW LARGER ACREAGE ACROSS THE BOARD. AND WHEN YOU LOOK AT IT IN LESS 17 YEARS 12 THE YEARS ACRES GREW FIVE YEARS DROP IN THE AVERAGE UP WAS 9 MILLION ACRES. SO WE'RE ON PAR WITH HISTORIC BUT THE ACREAGE GROWTH WAS IN STATES OUTSIDE THE PRIMARY CORN BELT GOES OUT WEST OUT EAST AND DOWN SOUTH. SO I DON'T THINK IT'S THE MILLION ACRES INCREASE BUT IT'S GOING TO BE MORE FEED USAGE AND WILL NOT GO INTO THE DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM. HAVING AN IDEA IMPACT ON CASH BASIS LEVELS AS YOU WOULD EXPECT. DOUG WHEN YOU BROKE IT DOWN AND REALLY LOOKED TO SEE WHERE WE'RE SEEING THIS INCREASE IN CORN ACREAGE DO YOU AGREE WITH BOB. DID IT COME OUTSIDE OF THE CORE CORN BELT. YEAH.  ACTUALLY AS YOU KNOW AS LONG AS I'VE BEEN DOING IT WITH SNOW AS LONG AS BOB BUT I HAVEN'T DONE IT QUITE A LONG TIME AS IT JUST SEEMS LIKE EVERY YEAR TO MEASURE WHAT THE PRICE OF CORN IS. IF WE HAVE A GOOD SPRING WE PLANT MORE CORN. RIGHT. AND THAT IS IN THE FACE OF THE U.S. FARMER ALWAYS TELLING US THAT HEY I'M GOING TO DO MORE BEANS NOT AS MUCH CORN AND ACTUALLY FOLLOW THROUGH ON THAT THROUGH THE CORN BELT THIS YEAR IT CAME OUTSIDE NORTH DAKOTA WAS ONE OF THE ONLY NEW CORN BELT STATES THAT ACTUALLY INCREASED BEEF AND GETTING BRASSICA INCREASE. BUT EITHER SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTH OF OHIO WAS UP YOU KNOW WE WERE DOWN IN IOWA WAS UNCHANGED SO SOME OF THOSE AREAS DUGHER SOME OF THOSE AREAS THAT GOT PLANTED REALLY LATE. I MEAN THE NORTHERN CORN BELT IS WHERE WE'VE BEEN. SO WHAT SO DO YOU THINK THAT ATTRIBUTED TO TOOT TOOT INDEED. I MEAN DOES THAT SURPRISE SOUTH DAKOTA MAYBE A LITTLE BIT BUT THERE WAS EARLY INDICATIONS OF THEY WERE GOING TO GO HEAVIER SOYBEANS ANYWAY THE DEAL IS SUCH A DIFFERENT BASIS LEVEL UP IN THOSE STATES TO GO THROUGH THE CORN BELT. SO THEY HAVE TO LOOK AT ALTERNATIVE SOURCES OF INCOME. BUT DESPITE THE INCREASE ACROSS THE BOARD WITH ACREAGE THE MARKET HANDLE BECAUSE IT'S BEEN SELLING OFF SINCE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WE HAVE BURIED THIS MARKET TO A POINT WHERE IT'S HARD TO BE PESSIMISTIC AND THAT'S WHERE WE GOT TO WATCH HOW TECHNICALLY. YOU SAY THIS BOUNCE WE GOT HERE TODAY AND WE'RE BOUNCING BECAUSE I THINK IT'S OVERSOLD CONDITION.  BUT THE PRIMARY FACTORS NOW ARE GOING TO BE VERY QUICK THEY ARE GOING TO TURN BACK TO WEATHER AND AND THE TRACKS THE TRADE THE THING WITH THE CONCERNING FIGURE FROM CORN HOWEVER IS THAT STOCK NUMBER ON FARM STOCK NUMBER. WE STILL HAVE A LOT OF AND I THINK A LOT OF THAT ON FARM STOCK IS UNPRICED. IT'S NOT PRICED DUCKED IT'S UNPRICED STOCKS. AND THAT COULD HAVE IF THAT STARTS TO HIT AND THEN WE DON'T HAVE WEATHER PROBLEMS THAT COULD HAVE SOME REAL PROBLEMS FOR BASES CASH EXPOSURE. IN AUGUST SEPTEMBER YES AND WE WE DIDN'T ONLY GET A TASTE OF ACREAGE DOUG. WE ALSO GOT QUARTERLY GRAIN STOCKS AND YOU'LL GET CORN AND SOY AN INCREASE COMPARED TO THIS TIME LAST YEAR. WE HAD THE LARGEST JUNE SOYBEAN STOCKS ON RECORD RIGHT NOW. AND AGAIN THE MARKET HANDLED THE NEWS WELL YEAH THERE'S AN OLD SAYING TRADE IT'S NOW THE REPORT SAYS HOW THE MARKET RESPONDS TO IT. THERE'S A LOT OF THAT SHORTS IN THESE POSITIONS BECAUSE OF THE TRADE ISSUES BECAUSE OF THE NEGATIVE TALK THE MORE BENIGN JUNE WE'VE HAD. I WILL I WILL COUNTER ONE THING IS I THINK AT THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR WE TRANSITION FROM A MORE SUPPLY ORIENTED TO A MORE GLOBAL GROWTH DEMAND ORIENTED AND IN THIS TRADE SITUATION COME IN HERE AND REALLY THROW A MONKEY WRENCH IN THERE. YOU GET RID OF THAT. I MEAN THE GLOBAL STOCKS AND THE GLOBAL GROWTH WE HAVE FROM A WORLD STANDPOINT ARE VERY GOOD. THAT IS A GOOD UNDERTONE TO THIS MARKET DESPITE THE DOMESTIC ISSUES. NOW I DIDN'T HAVE TIME TO GET TO THE ACTUAL GOAL. BUT IF YOU COULD ESTIMATE WAS 154 IN THE LAST QUARTERLY I THINK PROBABLY ABOUT 7 MILLION METRIC TONS. WE'RE BACK TO 162 163. THAT'S STILL EXTREMELY LOW COMPARE WHERE WE'RE AT. SO THE BULLS DO HAVE THE DIM LONG TERM DEMAND BULLISHNESS AND IF WE DON'T INCREASE ACRES DOMESTICALLY YOU COULD SET THE STAGE FOR A REASON TO STORE CORN THIS FALL. BUT WHAT IF WE DON'T GET RID OF THIS TRADE DISPUTE THAT WE HAVE GOING ON AND THEN CONSIDERING WHAT WE SAW THE DAY. YOU KNOW I'M GOING TO ASK THEM IF MAYBE WE PUT BELOW IN ON 12 MINOR POINT PRICES SO YOU NEED TO TAKE A QUICK BREAK AND THEN WE'LL TALK ABOUT THAT LATER ON U.S. FARM REPORT.

JOHN’S WORLD
AS THE ONGOING TRADE BATTLE WEIGHS ON COMMODITY PRICES, WE'VE TALKED ABOUT NOT ONLY  PRICE IMPACTS NOW, BUT WHAT COULD HAPPEN IN THE  DAYS AND MONTHS AHEAD.  HOWEVER, JOHN PHIPPS TAKES US DOWN AN  UNTRADITIONAL PATH OF THE TARIFF DISPUTE IN  JOHN'S WORLD. AMAZON AND CELLPHONES ARE COMPLICATING THE TRADE TURMOIL FOR  FARMERS. THIS SEEMS LIKE A REACH, BUT LET ME TRY TO CONNECT SOME  DOTS. AMAZON HAS BECOME INGRAINED IN OUR LIFESTYLE WITH ITS INSIDIOUS ONE-CLICK ORDERING. THAT HAS BEEN SO CAPTIVATING THAT  FILLING OUT AN ORDER FORM ON ANY OTHER WEBSITE SEEMS LIKE A TOTAL  WASTE OF TIME. IN THE SAME WAY, PULLING OUT MY CELLPHONE TO  ANSWER QUESTIONS SUCH AS FINDING OUT IF A HERBICIDE WILL KILL  SHATTERCANE IS NOW PART OF MY OPERATING DNA. INSTANT RESULTS ARE EXACTLY WHAT DOES NOT HAPPEN IN INTERNATIONAL  TRADE. SO WHEN TARIFFS AND COUNTERTARIFFS ARE ANNOUNCED, THEY DO NOT MOVE THE WEEKLY EXPORT FIGURES FOR GRAINS IMMEDIATELY. IN  FACT, EVEN AS EXPERTS ARE ALARMED AT POSSIBLE MARKET LOSSES FOR  FARMERS, IT COULD BE YEARS FOR THE FULL IMPACT TO BE FELT. I'LL LET OUR  MARKET EXPERTS COMMENT ON WHETHER MARKETS ARE FACTORING IN  THOSE LONGER-TERM CONSEQUENCES OR IGNORING THEM. THE MARKET SWOON OF THE LAST FEW WEEKS MAY HAVE MULTIPLE CAUSES. THERE  ARE VALID REASONS TO DISMISS THE THREAT OF SHARPLY LOWER EXPORTS  AND US PRICES. A TWEET TONIGHT COULD DRASTICALLY CHANGE THE SITUATION. AND IT COULD GO EITHER WAY. IT COULD BE A CASE OF 3-D  CHESS OR KNEE-JERK REACTIONS. THE TIME DELAY OF BETWEEN CAUSE  AND EFFECT IS LARGELY BEING FORGOTTEN IN OUR AMAZON-CELLPHONE WORLD. BUT INTERNATIONAL TRADE IS AN AIRCRAFT CARRIER - SLOW TO CHANGE  COURSE WITH ENORMOUS MOMENTUM. TODAY'S AG EXPORTS ARE THE  RESULT OF DEALS REACHED MONTHS, EVEN YEARS AGO, AND BENEFIT  FROM STRENUOUS EFFORTS BY GRAIN ASSOCIATIONS TO ENCOURAGE  FOREIGN CUSTOMERS. SIMILARLY, THE IMPACT OF TODAY'S TRADE FRICTION MAY NOT BE FELT FULLY FOR MONTHS OR YEARS, BUT BY THE TIME FARMERS  CAN CLEARLY SEE THE FALLOUT, WE COULD HAVE A LONG DIFFICULT ROAD  BACK TO GROWING AG EXPORTS. THERE IS NO CHANCE OF A ONE-CLICK OUTCOME FOR THIS DILEMMA.   THANKS JOHN. NEXT UP, AN INCREDIBLE STORY OF SOMETIMES WHAT  WAS LOST, IS MEANT TO BE FOUND. THAT'S IN TRACTOR  TALES NEXT.  

TRACTOR TALES
.WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES FOLKS. WE'VE GOT A GREAT FAMILY  TRACTOR TO SHARE WITH YOU TODAY. PAUL BUTLER SEARCHED FOR HIS  GRANDFATHER'S TRACTOR SEVERAL YEARS AFTER IT WAS SOLD.  WHEN HE  FOUND IT, ONE IDENTIFYING MARK CONFIRMED IT WAS THE FAMILY TRACTOR.   SO THIS IS MY GRANDPA'S 1951 U. HE SOLD IT WHEN AT HIS AUCTION HE RETIRED FARMING IN 1976 AND I STARTED FARMING IN 2003 AND  WANTED TO FIND THIS TRACTOR AND SPENT A LOT OF TIME LOOKING FOR IT  CALLING AUCTIONEERS ALL OVER THE COUNTRY AND POP UP JUST ABOUT  FIVE SIX MILES FROM HERE AND THE SERIAL NUMBERS MATCH THE BACK  OF A GUY SHED FOR YEARS AND WE WERE SURE JUST KIND OF AFTER ALL THE LOOK AND COULDN'T BELIEVE IT AND WENT OVER TO LOOK AT IT AND  WE FOUND MY GRANDFATHER'S HANDWRITING. HE'D ACTUALLY WRITTEN ALL  OVER IT BEFORE IT WAS STORED. WE PRESERVED A FEW OF THE SPOTS BUT MY DAD WASN'T TOO KEEN ON BODIES. DO YOU WANT THAT OLD THING  FOR IT'S GOING TO BE IN THE WAY THAT WE GOT THERE WE FOUND HER  HANDWRITING WHEN HIS MANUALS WERE HAD HIS NOTES AND EVERYTHING IN IT. AND DADS LIKE YOU GOT TO BUY THIS TRACTOR LIKE I  KNOW SO I BOUGHT IT AND HAD IT RESTORED BY GUIDE DOWN AND WILL  ENJOY A GOOD JOB. IT WAS A LITTLE ROUGH WHEN WE FIRST GOT IT IT WAS RUNNING BUT NOT MUCH MORE. AND HE DID A LOT OF THAT ALL THE  PAINTING AND EVERYTHING IN THE BODYWORK THEY WERE USING IT TO  JUST RUN AN AUGER. SINCE GRANDPA RETIRED IN 76 CLEAR UP UNTIL 2003 THE DRAGS OF THE SHED THEY'D RUN THE AUGER AND PUT IT BACK  IN THE SHED SO IT PROBABLY DIDN'T HAVE YOU KNOW A MILE ON THE  TIRES WHICH ARE THE TIRES THAT GRANDPA HAD ON IT.  WE HAD TO  REPLACE THE FRONT ONES BUT THE REAL ONES ARE THOSE SAME TIRES  THAT I REMEMBER AS A LITTLE KID. NOTHING JUST PARADES AND  HAYRIDES AND TRACTOR RIDES. STUFF LIKE THAT. TEMPTED TO PUT ON  SOMETHING I DON'T THINK SO I THINK IT'LL JUST STAY IN THE SHEDS THEY CLAIM IT WILL NEVER LEAVE THE FARM AS LONG AS I'M ALIVE.    WOW. INCREDIBLE. THANKS FOR SHARING THAT WITH  US PAUL. 

TEASE
UP NEXT, THE DOWNTURN IN DAIRY IS BLEEDING OVER TO MORE THAN JUST DAIRY FARMS. IT'S ALSO TRICKLING DOWN TO WHERE THE NEXT GENERATION IS  TRAINED. WE'LL HAVE THAT STORY IN OUR FARM  JOURNAL RPEORT AFTER THE BREAK.  

FARM JOURNAL REPORT
BERRIEN COUNTY - IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MICHIGAN - HAS DEEP ROOTS IN AGRICULTURE WITH  PRODUCTION IN FRUITS, TREE NUTS, VEGETABLES AND  LIVESTOCK. YET, EVEN THE OVERALL SINKING U.S. MILK MARGINS  ARE PUTTING STRAINS ON AG INDUSTRIES WHICH HAVE  BEEN FOUNDED FOR A CENTURY.  AS ONE COLLEGIATE'S RICH DAIRY HERITAGE COMES TO A CLOSE, BETSY JIBBEN SHOWS US THE FINAL CHAPTER. , DAY-TO-DAY DAIRY OPERATIONS ARE POWERED BY  ROUTINE... <"I DO A 3 AM SHIFT, AN 11 AM SHIFT AND THEN A 7 P.M."> THAT RHYTHEM AND ROUTINE EQUALS SUCCESS FOR A DAIRY FARM.  <"WE ARE PREG CHECKING RIGHT NOW AND THEN ALL THE COWS THAT ARE  OPEN THAT DON'T HAVE A CALF, THEY'RE GETTING SOME KIND OF A SHOT  TO GET BACK TO HEAT AGAIN,">THE CYCLE OF LIFE OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS, GLOBAL CONSISTENCY  AND GROWING PRODUCTION IS CAUSING FINANCIAL  STRESS.. EVEN IN BERRIEN COUNTY, MICHIGAN.  <"WE'VE BEEN SHRINKING TOO. THERE'S ONLY A FEW LEFT IN OUR COUNTY,"> <"I KNOW OF TWO FRIENDS AND FAMILY THAT HAD TO STOP ALSO BECAUSE  OF THAT SAME REASONING. IT HITS HOME FOR ME A LITTLE BIT."> IT HITS CLOSE TO HOME FOR ALL OF THEM... FALLING MILK PRICES AREN'T JUST HURTING THE  'AVERAGE' DAIRY. IT'S FORCING ANDREWS UNIVERSITY TO CLOSE THE  DOORS ON ITS 'EDUCATIONAL' DAIRY TOO.  <"LIKE MUCH OF THE DAIRY INDUSTRY, THE DAIRY AT ANDREWS UNIVERSITY  HAS BEEN OPERATING BELOW THE COST OF PRODUCTION. SO MUCH SO  THE UNIVERSITY HAS DECIDED TO CLOSE ITS DAIRY OPERATIONS THE SUMMER OF 20-19"> <"TAKES A BREATH - I WISH THAT THE DECISION MAKERS, THE BOARD  MEMBERS, THOUGHT DIFFERENTLY BUT WE HAVE TO THINK OF THE OVERALL  BUDGET OF THE UNIVERSITY. I DON'T WANT TO BE SELFISH BECAUSE A LOT  OF PEOPLE ARE INVOLVED IN THIS BUT - PAUSE- IT'S VERY DIFFICULT TO SEE  - TAKES A LONG PAUSE ,"> THE DAIRY AT THE UNIVERSITY WAS NEVER DESIGNED  TO BE A MONEY MAKER BUT STALE FINANCIALS AND DSTAGNET MARKETS ARE MAKING IT IMPOSSIBLE TO  STAY OPEN. <"OVERALL, WE NEED ABOUT 16 DOLLARS PER HUNDREDWEIGHT TO BREAK EVEN, THE REALITY HAS BEEN IN TEH LAST 2 OR 3 YEARS, IT'S BEEN 13 TO  14."> <"WE'VE GONE FROM THAT TO LOSING BETWEEN 700 TO 900 THOUSAND PER YEAR OVER THE LAST 3 YEARS.">  THREE YEARS OF PILING DEBT IS NOW HIGH ENOUGH TO  TOPPLE A CENTURY OF MILKING. <"SIGHS, WELL, IT'S VERY DISAPPOIPNTING. VERY SAD. 111 YEAR HISTORY.  THE DAIRY INDUSTRY AS YOU'VE HEARD FROM OTHERS IS READJUSTING,"> SHE WOULD KNOW- SHE WAS THE FIRST WOMAN TO  WORK AT THE DAIRY DECADES AGO.  <"I FED THE CALVES. VERY INTERESTING,"> ANDREWS UNIVERSITY WAS FOUNDED IN BATTLE  CREEK, MICHIGAN - LATER MOVED TO BERRIEN SPRINGS  FOR MORE SPACE. <"OUR HISTORY HERE IN SW MICHIGAN BEGAN IN 1901, WHEN WE  MOVED HERE. THE FARM WAS STARTED THE SAME YEAR AND SIX YEARS  LATER, THE DAIRY, WHICH IS BEHIND US BEGUN,"> <"ONE OF THE REASONS THIS SPOT WS CHOSEN WAS NOT JUST BECAUSE  IT WASN'T JUST A GREAT SPOT FOR A SCHOOL. IT WAS A GREAT SPOT FOR A  FARM,"> IT'S HARD TO KNOW HOW THE FACILITIES AT ANDREWS  WILL LOOK A YEAR FROM NOW..  <"WE'RE WORKING ON A PLAN TO SEE IF WE CAN'T UTILIZE SOME OF THESE FACILITIES FOR OTHER SPECIES, YOU KNOW, LLAMAS, GOATS, SHEEP,  CHICKENS, DUCKS..."> AND HOW MUCH CHANGE WILL COME WITH CLOSURE... <"I'VE BEEN HERE A TOTAL OF 22 YEARS COME THIS FALL..."> <"I ENJOY IT VERY MUCH. I ENJOY THE PRODUCTS, THE JOB, THE WORK,  ENJOY THE COWS AND PEOPLE. IT'S ALL A NICE PACKAGE.."> BUT UNTIL DAIRY PRICES REBOUND...  <"IN A PERFECT WORLD, WE'D HAVE AIR CONDITIONING BUT WE DON'T HAVE THAT KIND OF MONEY."> EVERYDAY LIFE ON U.S. DAIRIES... <"AFTER THIS, I'M GOING TO RETIRE. LAUGHS. I'M OLD ENOUGH. I'VE BEEN  DOING THIS ALL OF MY LIFE,"> MAY SEE MORE DISRUPTIONS IN THE FUTURE. REPORTING FOR U.S. FARM REPORT, I'M BETSY JIBBEN. THANKS BETSY.  KOUDELE SAYS OUT OF THE GRADUATES,  90 PERCENT WHO APPLY FOR VET SCHOOL ARE ACCEPTED.  THE UNIVERSITY IS NOT PLANNING ON DROPPING ANY  OF ITS VET DEGREES FOR NOW. HOWEVER, SOME  STUDENTS ARE WORRIED HOW THEY WILL ACHIEVE  THEIR LARGE ANIMAL EXPERIENCE. THE UNIVERSITY ALSO HAS A HIGHER OPERATIONAL COST SINCE IT'S AN  EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTION. 

TEASE
ALRIGHT, UP NEXT WE CONTINUE OUR MARKIGN DISCUSSION. BOB UTTERBACK AND DOUG WERLING ARE  BACK IN THE STUDIO NEXT. 

ROUNDTABLE 2
WELCOME BACK. BOB AND DOUG REJOIN ME EARLIER IN THE PROGRAM. WE TALK ABOUT REFORM WE SAW AN INCREASE IN ACREAGE ACROSS THE BOARD REALLY ON FRIDAY. QUARTERLY GRAIN STOCKS SAW AN INCREASE IN STOCKS COMPARED TO THE SAME TIME LAST YEAR. YET WE TALKED ABOUT HOW THE MARKET HELD UP FOR WHAT WE ACTUALLY RESPONDED POSITIVELY SO BOB HAVE WE PUT THE LOW IN IN CORN AND BEANS. I THINK WE PUT IT IN THE PSYCHOLOGICAL SHORT TERM LOW BECAUSE WE SOLD OFF AND BUT IT'S REALLY THE NEXT THREE WEEKS IS CRITICAL IF WEATHER CAN BE LIKE 2010. IF YOU WANT TO BE BULLISH 2010 WE TURN ON JUNE 30 AND WE RALLIED ALL FOR LONG BECAUSE WE HAD A MILLION ACRES DOWN AND WE HAD BAD WEATHER BUT WE HAVE ACRES UP SO WE GOT TO HAVE TO HAVE IT OR WE HAVE TO HAVE SOME CHINA TRADE EASING UP THE TARIFFS GOING BUT THEN I GOES AFTER THAT WE EASE THAT TARIFF SITUATION. HE MENTIONED WHETHER WE HAVE THIS HEAT. WE ONLY DON'T NOT ONLY HAVE THE THE HIGH DAYTIME HEAT BUT WE HAVE THE HIGH OVERNIGHT TEMPS. DO YOU THINK THE TRAIN EVEN CARES ABOUT ARE ABOUT WEATHER SINCE WE HAVE THESE THESE THESE TARIFF TENSIONS GOING ON NOW SINCE WE'RE PAST THIS REPORT. WE'LL WATCH IT A LITTLE BIT MORE CLOSELY EVEN WITH THE TENSIONS BECAUSE THERE'S ONLY TWO THINGS YOU REALLY HAVE TO GO ON RIGHT NOW. AND YES IT DOESN'T MATTER IF YOU'RE EXCESSIVELY DRY OR WET LEADING UP TO CORN POLLINATION THAT IS SHOWN DEPENDS ON TEMPERATURE DURING POLLINATION AND THERE'S SOME TIME COMING UP HERE THAT COULD BE A LITTLE WORRISOME. HOWEVER IT'S DAY TO DAY I MEAN YOU CAN'T IT'S MERCURIAL NATURE IT'S DIFFICULT TO MASTER. ANOTHER POSITIVE AND I SOUND ALMOST FRIENDLY. I DON'T WANT TO GET TOO EXCITED BUT WE DID DID HOGS AND PIGS REPORT WE HAD THIS WEEK THREE POINT FOUR PERCENT INCREASE. WE ADDED TWO POINT ONE MILLION HOGS TO THE FEED. SO THAT'S ANOTHER RESIDUAL HELPING THE GIVE THE MARKET A PUSH. IF WE CAN GET THE WEATHER AND I WOULD SAY IT WOULD ENCOURAGE YOU DON'T GET SUPER BULLISH USE THAT MOUNTS TO CLEAN UP YOUR BINS AND GET SOME OF YOUR PRICING DONE. OTHERWISE YOU'RE WAITING ALL THE WAY TO NEXT SUMMER. WHILE HE'S TOURING IT WELL HE'S TURNED SAY IS LOOK IT IS EXCESSIVELY IMPORTANT. WE'RE WE HAVE THIS DEMAND BUT IF WE'RE NOT EXPORTING THAT PORK EVENTUALLY THAT'S A LONG TERM NEGATIVE. SO YOU HAVE TO HAVE THESE TWO COUNTRIES COME TO AN AGREEMENT HERE. THERE'S GOING TO BE SOME BIG TIME DAMAGE DOWN THE ROAD IF NOTHING GETS TAKEN CARE OF. WELL AND YOU KNOW NEXT WEEK THAT WE'RE WATCHING TO SEE IF WE FOLLOW THROUGH ON SOME OF THESE TARIFFS AND SO WE'RE COMING INTO AN IMPORTANT TIMELINE NOW. BUT IF WE DO SEE THESE TARIFFS ON CHINA SPECIFICALLY PUT ON AND WE SEE MORE OF THESE TARIFFS GO INTO EFFECT. DO YOU THINK WE CAN SEE PRICES FALLING MORE. YES I DO. IS GOING TO BE ELECTED AND JESUS XHOSAS AND HE NATIONALIZES INANDA I'M PROBABLY AS WORRIED ABOUT NAFTA AND BUSINESS TO MEXICO BECAUSE THAT REALLY AFFECTS A LOT OF CORN AND CATTLE. I DON'T REALLY WANT TO SAY TOO PUBLICLY BUT I CAN SEE A WASH OUT PANIC LOW PRE HARVEST LOW IN AUGUST SEPTEMBER AS A FEED BUYER OR ANYBODY WHO SOLD CORN OFF THE COMBINE THAT'S WHEN I WOULD TARGET A PRE SEPTEMBER REPORT LOW PRICE HOVERS LOW TO ELIMINATE EXPORT TRADE DEBACLE. BUT HOW MUCH LONGER CAN WE GET IT THE PRICES WE'RE SEEING TODAY. SO OK. THE BEST WAY TO PUT THAT IS LOOK YOU KNOW WE'RE A DOLLAR FORTY DOLLAR 50 OWNER OF BEANS GLOBALLY COMPARED TO BRAZIL. IT HAS TO BE AROUND A TWO DOLLAR 30 CENT PRICE RANGE BELOW BRAZIL FOR THEM TO APPLY A TARIFF AND IT BE CHEAP ENOUGH TO GO IN THERE. SO THERE'S STILL PROBABLY 50 TO 70 CENTS DOWNSIDE IN SOYBEANS IF YOU JUST LOOK AT IT FROM THAT PRICE RELAY'S ANOTHER ONE PLAY I'VE BEEN HEARING HOW THE CHINESE MIGHT TRY TO GET AROUND THE TARIFF IS THEY WOULD FRENSHIP THEY WOULD SHIP BEANS TO MEXICO AND THEN SHIP IT AND CHANGE OWNERSHIP AND SHIP IT OUT AND THEY GET AROUND THE OWNERSHIP PLAY IN IT FOR AS LONG AS MEXICO DOESN'T PLAY AROUND WITH RAIL AND NATIONALIZATION OF THE RAILROADS. SO THAT'S WHY THE NAFTA MEXICAN SITUATION IS REALLY TOUCHY TO EVERYBODY. NOBODY'S TALKING ABOUT THAT. THAT IS CONCERNING. AND THAT'S SO A LOT OF BALTIMORE FOR THE NEXT THREE WEEKS. BUT WHAT IF WE DO SEE CHINA AND THE U.S. RESOLVE SOME OF THESE TENSIONS. WHAT IF THAT HAPPENS HUGE BOUNCE LIKE HOW RICHMAN'S LIKE YOU HAVE AN ENORMOUS SHORT POSITION NOW THAT'S BEEN BUILT OVER A TWO WEEK PERIOD. I MEAN YOU SAW THE FUND SELL OFF 200000 CONTRACTS OR CORN IN FIVE SIX DAYS. SO YOU WILL GET EXCESSIVELY NEED YOUR KNEE JERK MOVE. THE QUESTION THEN IS DO YOU GET FOLLOW THROUGH. BECAUSE THERE'S ACTUALLY SOMETHING THERE WEATHER WISE TO MAKE IT GO HIGHER. OR DO YOU USE THAT OPPORTUNITY TO SELL OUT OF WHICH YOU AS A SELLER I WAS HEAVILY SHORT. I TOOK PROFITS AND WENT TO A LOWER LESS RISK STRATEGY. I'M HOPING FOR THAT BOUNCE THAT KNEE JERK BOUNCE FOR 2005 IS ATTAINABLE. YEAH. IF YOU COULD GET TO YIELDS BACKING BACK MACK NOW. ALL RIGHT. THANK YOU BOTH FOR BEING HERE. WE APPRECIATE IT. WE CAN CHECK OUT OUR MARKETS NOW ESPECIALLY ON DOT COM. STAY WITH US. WHILE U.S. FARM REPORT AFTER THE BREAK. 

BAXTER BLACK
WELCOME BACK. IT'S TIME NOW TO HEAD OUT WEST THIS WEEKEND WITH A TRIP TO VISIT BAXTER BLACK.  I GOT A CARD FROM A WOMAN VETERINARIAN WHO HAD MARRIED A  COWBOY. NOW I HAVE DISCUSSED LADY YVETTE'S MARION COWBOYS. I POINT OUT THAT IT'S THE PERFECT MATCH. WHILE SHE'S OUT EARNING THEIR  DAILY BREAD HE FEEDS HER HORSES AND CLEANS HER STALLS AND DRINKS  BEER AND TEAM ROPES EVERY AFTERNOON WITH HIS BUDDIES BRENDA EXPLAINED HER CASE. HER RANCHER SLASH COWBOY SLASH HUSBAND'S  EXPECTATIONS UPON MARRIAGE. SHE HAS A BUSY PRACTICE SHE GETS  HOME AFTER A DAY'S WORK AND HE'S BEEN PLOTTING ALL DAY. THE VETERINARY SERVICES HE NEEDS ON HIS OWN STOCK HONEY HE SAID  ONE OF OUR COWS DOESN'T SEEM RIGHT. SHE'S HONKIN LIKE A GOOSE.  HER EYES ARE GOING OUT AND SHE JUST STANDS THERE AROUND THE WATER TROUGH. OH SHE'LL BE FINE. SHE SAYS SHE PROBABLY JUST GOT  AN ALLERGY. I'VE GOT ANOTHER CALL AND BELINDA IN 30 MINUTES AND I  HAVEN'T GOT TIME TO TALK NOW. THE SWEETIE. MY GOOD ROPING HORSES OFF HIS FEED AND HE'S FAVORING HIS LEFT LEG. YOU KNOW WHEN  I TAKE MY DALLIES YOU COULD GEORGIA I HAVE TO TAKE LITTLE GEORGE  TO THE DENTIST AND THEN TO SOCCER MAYBE TOMORROW OR THE NEXT. YEAH BUT EVEN THE PUPPY NEEDS THE SHOTS. BRENDA SAYS HIS STUFF  ALWAYS COMES LAST PLUS HIS HELP IS REGULARLY LISTED ON HOUSECALLS  OR HUBLI WINDS UP HAVING TO RESTRAIN OR ROPE OR CAPTURE OR HOLD UP OR HOLD DOWN WRESTLE OR TWITCH ALL MANNER OF UNCOOPERATIVE  BEASTS FROM LITTLE GIRLS BACKYARD HORSES TO ALLOW MORE WRANGLING.  AH THE LIFE OF A VETERINARIAN'S HUSBAND ISN'T ALL JUST PEACHES AND  CREAM. HE OFTEN HAS TO FIX HIS OWN DINNER WHICH HE REALLY DOESN'T  MIND.  BUT EACH DAY HE APPROACHES THE REFRIGERATOR WITH TREPIDATION.  SINCE THAT EVENING WHEN HE THAWED OUT A PIECE OF STEAK AND FRIED IT FOR HIMSELF SHE TOLD HIM NOT TO WAIT FOR HER BECAUSE SHE'D  BE LATE. NEXT MORNING SHE WAS HUNTING THROUGH THE FREEZER FOR A  SAMPLE SHE HAD LABELED A POSSIBLE TISSUE DAMAGE FROM HYPODERMIA. LENNY AEDO SENT TO THE LAB HONEY SHE SAID DID YOU  SEE AND THEN SHE GLIMPSED IN THE TRASH CAN AND SAW WRITING ON A  BIG BAG. WHAT. HE ASKED. OH NOTHING SHE SAID. I'M PRETTY SURE IT WAS JUST THE NECROTISING CATTLE GRUB ANYWAY. THIS IS BAXTER BLACK  AND PUPPY FROM OUT THERE. THANKS, BAXTER. AND YOU CAN HEAR MORE OF HIS  HUMOR ONLINE AT BAXTER BLACK DOT COM. WHEN WE COME BACK, IT'S ROUND 2 WITH JOHN PHIPPS  THIS WEEK. CUSTOMER SUPPORT IS NEXT.  

CUSTOMER SUPPORT
A COUPLE WEEKS AGO, JOHN SHARED A BIT OF A PROBLEM HE WAS HAVING WITH A SPRAYER. AND  APPARENTLY, HE'S NOT THE ONLY ONE, AS HIS  COMMENTARY PROMPTED AN OUTPOUR OF SUPPORT. HERE'S JOHN.  I WANT TO TAKE THIS WEEK TO SAY THANK YOU TO ALL OF YOU WHO WROTE  IN WITH SOLUTIONS AND COMMENTS ABOUT MY SPRAYER PROBLEM  WHERE ONE SECTION OF THE BOOM THAT I COULDN'T SEE WAS OPERATING INTERMITTENTLY AND I FOUND OUT BY SEEING A BUNCH OF WEED STREAKS  OUT IN THE FIELD. FIRST OFF ALL OF YOU WHO WROTE IN AND SAID  WELCOME TO THE CLUB. IT'S KIND OF A DUBIOUS HONOR BUT IT'S GOOD TO KNOW THAT MISERY LOVES COMPANY AND WILL COME OVER FOR A VISIT.  SO THERE OBVIOUSLY ARE A LOT OF PEOPLE. THIS HAS HAPPENED TOO  AND I APPRECIATE THE COMMISERATION THERE. SECOND THERE WERE ONE OR TWO KINDS OF SOLUTIONS. THE FIRST WAS SUGGESTED THE VIDEO  CAMERAS. FOR INSTANCE STEVE PIXLEY FROM MICHIGAN SENT ME THIS  PICTURE OF A VIDEO CAMERA MOUNTED TO SEE HIS BLIND SPOT DIRECTLY BEHIND THE CAB. THERE IT SAYS IT WORKS REALLY WELL FOR HIM AND WE  HAVE USED VIDEO CAMERAS ON SOME EQUIPMENT LIKE OUR COMBINE  AND PLANNERS AND ESPECIALLY THE GREENCARD TO SEE BEHIND IN BLIND SPOTS AND THEY DO WORK WELL WHEN THEY'RE NOT COVERED WITH DIRT OR MUD OR CHAFF AND THAT'S THE ONE ISSUE THAT I KIND OF  STRUGGLE WITH THERE. THE OTHER IS MORE SIMPLE AND  STRAIGHTFORWARD AND WILL PROBABLY DO IS JUST SIMPLY RUN A PRESSURE  LINE FROM THIS SECTION OF THE BOOM A LITTLE BIT IPEX TUBE UP TO THE  FRONT AND MOUNT A PRESSURE GAUGE UP THERE SO I CAN ACTUALLY SEE  WHAT THE PRESSURE IS WHEN IT'S ON.  THE ONLY PROBLEM WITH BOTH OF THESE SOLUTIONS IS THAT  SOMEBODY HAS TO BE PAYING ATTENTION TO EITHER THE CAMERA READOUT OR THE PRESSURE GAUGE AND PAYING ATTENTION OF LONG  PERIODS OF TIME IS NOT MY STRONG SUIT ANYMORE SO I AM A LITTLE BIT  AMAZED THAT SOMEBODY HASN'T COME UP WITH A ADD ON OF PRESSURE SENSORS FOR EACH SECTION OF THE BOOM TIGHT END OF THE  CIRCUIT FOR THE SOLENOID THAT CONTROLS IT SUCH THAT WHEN IT'S ON IF  THERE ISN'T MINIMUM PRESSURE YOU GET AN ALARM. DOESN'T LOOK LIKE  ROCKET SCIENCE TO ME SO IF YOU'VE INVENTED IT OR KNOW SOMETHING  ABOUT LIKE THAT I MAY TRY TO COME UP WITH IT MYSELF BUT PRETTY SURE ALL THAT WOULD TURN OUT. BUT REGARDLESS ALL OF THESE WERE GREAT  IDEAS THEY WERE VERY HELPFUL AND I APPRECIATE OUR VIEWERS AND  TAKING THE TIME AND TROUBLE WITH THEM. LET ME KNOW. AND FOR ALL YOU GUYS WHO ARE OUT THERE WHO IS WHO THIS HAS HAPPENED TO  YOU WISELY KEPT YOUR MOUTH SHUT ABOUT THE WHOLE THING. I'LL SAY  THE SAME THING PEOPLE TOLD ME. WELCOME TO THE CLUB. YOU'RE NOT ALONE.  DON'T FORGET, IF YOU HAVE A QUESTION OR COMMENT  FOR JOHN, EMAIL HIM AT MAILBAG AT U-S FARM REPORT  DOT COM. WHEN WE COME BACK, WORRIES ABOUT WINTER WHEAT HARVEST ARE NOW SHOWING UP IN THE COMBINE, WITH SOME AREA FARMERS NOT HAVING  MUCH OF A CROP TO CUT. WE'LL TAKE YOU TO  OKLAHOMA AFTER THE BREAK.  

FROM THE FARM
WELCOME BACK. WHEAT HARVEST THIS YEAR HASN'T BEEN A BOUNTIFUL ONE.  ESPEICALLY IN AREAS WHERE DROUGHT AND HAIL HAVE PREVAILED OVER WHAT FARMERS WOULD LIKE TO SEE.  THIS WEEK WE TAKE A TRIP TO OKLAHOMA TO SEE WHY  DESPITE THE HEARTBURN WITH YIELD AND PRICE, HIS  PASSION FOR AMBER WAIVES OF GRAIN, PERSERVERES.   WITH SON WAYLON IN TOW… LENDAL VANAMAN SAYS…  THIS IS HIS HAPPY PLACE.  "THAT IS MY HOME. THERE IS NO PLACE I'D RATHER  BE THAN ON A COMBINE. I'VE BEEN THAT WAY SINCE I WAS MY BOY'S  AGE. SINCE I WAS THREE YEARS OLD I RODE IN A COMBINE WITH MY  GRANDAD."   LENDAL KNEW THEN HE'D BE A FARMER… FIRST  INSPIRED BY HIS GREAT-GRANDMOTHER… HER, NOW CENTENNIAL FARM, EVENTUALLY BECAME HIS.  "THAT'S KIND OF WHERE MY PASSION AND DRIVE  FOR AGRICULTURE COMES FROM IS FROM HER. SHE DID IT FOR SO LONG. THEY PROSPERED FOR SO LONG. ALONG WITH MY FATHER-IN-LAW AND HIS  FAMILY. THEY'VE SUFFERED DROUGHTS FOR YEARS. THEY'RE STILL HERE  AND THERE STILL GOING. SO, HOPEFULLY WE'LL STILL BE GOING WHEN MY  BOY'S UP AND GOING." THAT RESILIENT MINDSET…  ESPECIALLY  IMPORTANT IN YEARS LIKE THIS.  "WE'RE SEEING ABOUT HALF THE YIELD ON A  NORMAL YEAR. SOME'S BEEN A LITTLE LESS AND SOME'S BEEN A LITTLE  MORE THAN THAT. BUT I'D SAY WE'RE AVERAGING ABOUT 30 BUSHEL WHEN WE'D NORMALLY SHOULD BE AROUND 60."  "THE PLANT'S BEEN SO STRESSED OUT. IT HAD  DROUGHT, THEN IT HAD FREEZE, THEN WE HAD DROUGHT. WE HAD A FOUR- INCH MONSOON THE DAY WE STARTED CUTTING, WHICH DIDN'T REALLY  HELP. WE BASICALLY HAD EVERYTHING THROWN AT US THIS YEAR THAT WOULD PUT US DOWN." THE GROWING SEASON…  "IN ONE YEAR YOU NEVER KNOW WHAT YOU'RE  GOING TO GET."  LIKE RIDING A ROLLER COASTER.  "IT KEEPS YOU ON YOUR TOES." A REGULAR WHEAT / CANOLA ROTATION HELPS. "W PLANT NOT QUITE 50-50. WE NORMALLY HAVE  MORE WHEAT ACRES THAN WE DO CANOLA."  "IT CLEANS IT UP. IT GIVES YOU MORE CHEMICAL  ROTATION SO YOU CAN KILL RYE AND KEEPS YOUR WHEAT FIELD… PLUS THE  YIELD THE SECOND YEAR AFTER WHEAT HAS BEEN PHENOMENAL FOR US." THANK GOODNESS FOR BETTER PRICES…  RIGHT AT HARVEST… NOT TO MENTION TECHNOLOGY.   LENDAL'S USED G-P-S IN HIS COMBINE THE PAST TWO  YEARS. EVERY ROW… PRECISION CUT. A MONITOR REPORTS REAL-TIME CHANGES IN YIELD..  MOISTURE AND OTHER DATA.. SO HE CAN MAKE  IMMEDIATE ADJUSTMENTS. WAYLON - WHO TURNS FOUR NEXT MONTH - IS HIS  NUMBER ONE HELPER.  "CUT WHEAT, IT JUST SPINS AROUND LIKE (ARM  SPINS)… SEQUENCE… AND THEN WHAT HAPPENS… TRUCKS.. ENDAL VANAMAN: "HE HAS BEEN IN A COMBINE SINCE HE WAS BORN. HE'S HAD TO RIDE IN ONE HERE. HE'S RODE IN ONE UP NORTH.  HE'S LIVED IN THAT THING AS WELL AS I AM. WE'RE COMBINING, HE'S  COMBINING ON THE FLOOR. THERE'S COMBINES AND TRACTORS ON THE BACK OF THE PICKUP. THERE'S COMBINES AND TRACTORS IN THE  COMBINE." IMPORTANT TIME TOGETHER FOR FATHER AND SON… BEGINNING LESSONS ABOUT FARMING… AND LIKELY…  SOMETHING MUCH GREATER.  "IF I CAN FARM AND I CAN DO MY BEST AT DOING IT,   HOPEFULLY HE CAN LEARN FROM ME AND HE WILL DO HIS BEST AND HIS  CHILDREN WILL DO THE SAME. AND THE END RESULT WILL BE A BETTER  WORLD THAT WE CONTINUE ON WITH. THROUGH US AND THROUGH THEM  AND THROUGH GENERATIONS TO COME. WE DO OUR BEST AT FEEDING THE  WORLD. GIVE IT OUR BEST SHOT.">  AND I LOOK FROM THE CAB WHAT THEY'RE SEEING IN AREAS LIKE OKLAHOMA BUT MIKE I WAS IN COLORADO THIS WEEK AND I HEARD FROM SOME FARMERS THAT SAID THEY'VE JUST BEEN BOMBARDED WITH HAIL. SEEMS LIKE WE'VE SEEN THAT EVERY WEEK AT LEAST IN SOME PART OF EASTERN COLORADO GETS HAILED AND SUCH EXTREME WEATHER EVEN IN AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN ALMOST NORMAL AND TEMPERATURES IT'S GOING FROM WAY WAY TOO WARM TO. WAY TOO COOL IT SEEMS LIKE A LOT OF PLACES. AND NOW WE'RE EVEN TALKING ABOUT EL NINO COMING THIS FALL. SO I'M EXCITED NEXT WEEKEND ON THE SHOW. MY COMMENT IS ACTUALLY GOING TO JOIN ME IN THE MARKETING ROUNDTABLE WITH USDA METEOROLOGIST BRAD RIPPEY TO LOOK AT SOME OF THESE POTENTIAL WEATHER MARKET MOVERS AND WHAT WE COULD EXPECT. YOU KNOW JUST A TEASE I THINK A LOT OF THIS HEAT IN THE EAST ACTUALLY TRANSLATES BACK TO THE WEST WHERE THE SECOND HALF OF JULY. THAT'S MY THINKING AT THE MOMENT IN A BREAD AND I ARE GOING TO TALK A LITTLE BIT MORE ABOUT THAT. YEAH WE'LL GET TO EVEN INTO THE FALL OUTLOOK AS WELL. THANKS SO MUCH MIKE.  

CLOSE
FOR ALL OF US AT US FOR OUR REPORT ON MIKE HOFFMAN AND I'M TYNE MORGAN THANK YOU FOR WATCHING. BE SURE TO JOIN US AGAIN RIGHT HERE NEXT WEEK AS WE WORK TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND EVERYONE.

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