USFR Weekly Recap - March 10-11, 2018

March 10, 2018 03:30 AM
 
USFR_Logo

TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
MARCH 10-11, 2018

HEADLINES

WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M TYNE MORGAN,  AND HERE'S WHAT'S IN STORE OVER THE NEXT 60  MINUTES.  TRUMP'S TOUGH STANCE ON STEEL IS MAKING WAVES  BOTH IN AND OUTSIDE OF AGRICULTURE... <BUT I THINK THE SMARTER WAY TO GO IS TO MAKE IT MORE SURGICAL OR  MORE TARGETED."> PLUS, THE T-P-P IS MOVING FORWARD, LEAVING THE U-S  BEHIND.  DRYNESS IS GROWING INTO A DESPERATE SITUATION IN  THE PLAINS... <"IN THIS PART OF TEXAS, IT'S BEEN MORE THAN 100 DAYS WITHOUT  PRECEIPATION. SO THAT'S BROKEN A RECORD,"> BUT HOW COULD THAT IMPACT THE GROWING COTTON  ACRE PICTURE IN 2018? THAT'S OUR FARM JOURNAL  REORT.  AND IN JOHN'S WORLD... <STEEL TARIFFS AND TAREDE WARS, BUT WHAT IDOES IT MEAN FOR HTE  FUTURE? 

WASDE
NOW FOR THE NEWS . USDA RELEASING IT'S MARCH SUPPLY DEMAND REPORT  THIS WEEK.  AND WHILE MOST OF INDUSTRY IS WAITING FOR THE  MARCH 29TH PROSPECTIVE PLANTINGS REPORT --  THERE WERE SOME STATS WORTH NOTING. USDA LOWERING ITS SOYBEAN EXPORT EXPECTATIONS  DUE TO HIGHER SHIPMENTS FROM BRAZIL.  THAT CAUSED USDA TO RAISE ITS FORECAST OF  DOMESTIC SOYBEAN ENDING STOCKS TO 555 MILLION  BUSHELS. . ON THE FLIP SIDE, THE REPORT SHOWING HIGHER  DEMAND FOR THE U.S. CORN CROP.  THE AGENCY LOWERING THE 17-18 CORN ENDING  STOCKS TO JUST OVER TWO-POINT-ONE BILLION  BUSHELS, BASED ON INCREASED EXPORTS AND  ETHANOL PRODUCTION.             

USMEF NUMBERS
THE U.S. MEAT EXPORT FEDERATION ALSO RELEASING  IT'S JANUARY NUMBERS, AND THE BULLISH EXPORT  STORY CONTINUES.  FOLLOWING A RECORD 2017...BEEF EXPORT VOLUME IN  JANUARY ROSE 9 PERCENT YEAR-OVER-YEAR. VALUES WERE UP 21 PERCENT.  ON THE PORK SIDE,  VOLUMES WERE STEADY WHILE  EXPORT VALUES GAINED 7 PERCENT.  PORK EXPORTS NOW ACCOUNTING FOR A QUARTER OF  TOTAL PORK PRODUCTION.

METAL TARIFFS
MEANWHILE, THE AG INDUSTRY WORRIED ABOUT  RETALIATION FOLLOWING THE PRESIDENT'S DECISION  TO MOVE FORWARD WITH TARIFFS ON STEEL AND  ALUMINUM IMPORTS. ON THURSDAY THE PRESIDENT SIGNED THE ORDERS TO  TAX STEEL IMPORTS 25-PERCENT AND ALUMINUM TEN  PERCENT. . HOWEVER THERE ARE EXEMPTIONS CARVED OUT FOR  NAFTA PARTNERS  CANADA AND MEXICO.   HE ALSO SUGGESTED A BREAK FOR AUSTRALIA. . PRESIDENT TRUMP SAYS THERE'S FLEXIBILITY TO HIS  PLAN...ADDING THAT ALL COUNTRIES AFFECTED BY THE  TARIFFS ARE INVITED TO NEGOTIATE FOR EXEMPTIONS,  IF THEY CAN ADDRESS THE THREAT THEIR EXPORTS  POSE TO THE U.S. THE DECISION PROMPTED THE PRESIDENT' TOP  ECONOMIST TO QUIT. AND NOW BUT MANY MEMBERS OF  THE G-O-P ARE PUSHING BACK, AND NOT SUPPORTING  THE PRESIDENT'S MOVE.  <"THERE'S CLEARLY ABUSE OCCURRING. CLEARLY, THERE IS OVER-CAPACITY,  DUMPING AND TRANSSHIPPING OF STEEL AND ALUMINUM BY SOME  COUNTRIES, PARTICULARLY CHINA. BUT I THINK THE SMARTER WAY TO GO IS  TO MAKE IT MORE SURGICAL OR MORE TARGETED."> AG GROUPS ARE HOPING TO AVOID RETALIATORY  TARIFFS ON THE INDUSTRY FOLLOWING THE  PRESIDENT'S PLEDGE TO IMPLEMENT ACROSS THE  BOARD INCREASES OF 25 PERCENT ON STEEL AND 10  PERCENT ON ALUMINUM.

TPP SIGNED
MEANWHILE, THE NEWLY RENAMED TRANS PACIFIC  PARTNERSHIP WAS OFFICIALLY SIGNED IN CHILE  THURSDAY. 11 NATIONS--MINUS THE U.S.-- AGREEING TO THE TRADE  PACT MAKING IT ONE OF THE GLOBE'S THREE LARGEST  AGREEMENTS COVERING A HALF BILLION PEOPLE. THE C-P-TPP STILL NEEDS APPROVAL FROM EACH  COUNTRY'S LEGISLATURE...TO BE FULLY RATIFIED. ONCE IMPLEMENTED THE U.S. WHEAT INDUSTRY SAYS  SHIPMENTS TO JAPANESE MILLERS -- ONE OF ITS  BIGGEST CUSTOMERS-- ARE LIKELY TO BE CUT IN  HALF..SIMPLY BECAUSE OF THE DISADVANTAGE IN  PRICE. ALSO IN TRADE NEWS, THE LATEST ROUND OF NAFTA  NEGOTIATIONS WRAPPING UP IN MEXICO CITY THIS  WEEK. US TRADE REPRESENTATIVE-- ROBERT LIGHTHIZER--  SAYS ONLY 6 OF 30 CHAPTERS HAVE BEEN COMPLETED. WHILE PROGRESS IS BEING MADE, LIGHTHIZER  STRESSES TIME IS RUNNING SHORT. MEXICO HAS ELECTIONS THIS SUMMER AND THE U.S.  HAS IT'S OWN MID-TERM CYCLE IN NOVEMBER. HE STRESSES AN AGREEMENT NEEDS TO HAPPEN  SOON...IF NOT THE U.S. IS PREPARED TO SEEK A  BILATERAL ACCORD WITH BOTH CANADA AND MEXICO  RATHER THAN A THREE MEMBER DEAL. DESPITE UNCERTAINTY - MOST FARMERS SEEM  OPTIMISTIC ABOUT TRADE.

PURDUE/CME GROUP AG BAROMETER
THE MONTHLY PURDUE-CME AG BAROMETER ASKING  FARMERS ABOUT NAFTA AND TRADE. . IN THE FEBRUARY SURVEY, 87 PERCENT OF AG  PRODUCERS SAY THEY EXPECT EXPORTS TO EITHER  REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME OR INCREASE...OVER THE  NEXT 5 YEARS. <WELL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT NAFTA DESPITE THAT FARMERS  REMAIN OPTIMISTIC ABOUT TRADE GROWING OVER TIME. AND THAT'S  DESPITE THE FACT THAT CANADA AND MEXICO ARE TWO OF OUR LARGEST  TRADING PARTNERS0> THIS SURVEY WAS CONDUCTED PRIOR TO PRESIDENT  TRUMPS ANNOUNCEMENT ON TARIFFS. . AS FAR AS THE OVERALL SENTIMENT THE BAROMETER  CLIMBING HIGHER FOR THE SECOND STRAIGHT MONTH.  AT 140, IT'S THE SECOND-HIGHEST LEVEL IN MORE THAN  TWO YEARS.  DOZENS OF WILDFIRES ERUPTING IN KANSAS AND  NEBRASKA THIS WEEK. MORE 50 FIRES BURNED IN KANSAS ALONE, COVERING  ABOUT 40 SQUARE MILES. . THIS FOOTAGE ON TWITTER WAS CAPTURED NEAR  HAYS, KANSAS BY A HIGHWAY PATROL OFFICER.   BLACKHAWK HELICOPTERS WERE DISPATCHED IN  SEVERAL LOCATIONS TO DROP WATER. THE DRYNESS AND FIRE DANGER INCLUDES PARTS OF  THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES WHERE  PLACES HAVE NOW GONE MORE THAN 100 DAYS  WITHOUT RAINFALL. WINTER WHEAT FIELDS ARE DRY AND BLOWING AS THE  CROP STARTS TO BREAK DORMANCY. DRYLAND COTTON FARMERS, PLANNING TO INCREASE  ACRES NOW SAY THEY'LL HAVE TO SEE IF THE RAINS  RETURN BEFORE PLANTING.  SO AS PLANTING DATES GET NEARER, THAT'S  GOING TO REALLY IMPACT A LOT DECISIONS FARMERS  ARE MAKING AS TO WHAT TYPES OF CROPS THEY'RE  GOING TO PLANT AND WHAT THEY MIGHT DO AND  THERE IS PEOPLE THAT HAVE IRRIGATION. I'VE ALREADY  SEEN PRE-WATERING START.IRLBECK SAYS PRE-WATERING IS EXPENSIVE. THE LACK OF MOISTURE -- AND THREAT OF CROP  FAILURE --MAY MEAN PRODUCERS TURN TO LESS  EXPENSIVE VARIETIES THIS SPRING.

TEASE
WE NEED TO TAKE A QUICK BREAK, BUT WHEN WE COME  BACK, IT'S A LOOK AT WEATHER.  PLUS, LATER WE'LL DIVE INTO OUR MARKETS  DISCUSSION FROM THE ROAD IN NORTH DAKOTA  WHERE THE ANALYSTS TAKE OVER THIS WEEK..

WEATHER
METEOROLOGIST CINDI CLAWSON FILLING IN FOR MIKE  HOFFMAN AGAIN THIS WEEK.  CINDI I GUESS IT'S SAFE TO SAY WINTER ISN'T QUITE  OVER?  YOU GOT THAT RIGHT. WE'LL TALK ABOUT THAT IN JUST A MINUTE. BUT I  WANT TO START YOU OFF WITH THE LATEST U.S. DROP MONITOR WORK  CONTINUES TO BE A TALE OF SOME FOLKS GETTING BETTER AND SOME  FOLKS NOT. AND THE AREAS THAT ARE GETTING BETTER IN THE SOUTHEAST  AND WHERE WE'RE SEEING VERY BAD CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO  DEVELOP IS IN THE PLAINS AND IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS IS  WHAT IT'S LOOKED LIKE OVER THE PAST MONTH. YOU CAN SEE HOW  WIDESPREAD THE DROUGHT WAS JUST FOUR WEEKS AGO. BUT WATCH THE  IMPROVEMENT IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WHERE WE WERE  SEEING SOME EXTREME DROUGHT IN MISSOURI THAT'S ALL JUST MAINLY  ABNORMALLY DRY TO SEVERE. GREAT IMPROVEMENTS IN THE SOUTHEAST  BUT WE'RE REALLY SEEING THAT DROUGHT EXPANDING IN THE WESTERN  PARTS OF THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WE'RE NOW  SEEING EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT IN PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LET'S  TAKE A LOOK AT THAT JET STREAM AND WE'VE HAD SOME VERY COLD  WEATHER IN THE NORTHEAST AND JUST RELENTLESS SNOW ESPECIALLY IN  THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. WE CONTINUE TO SEE A TROUGH  AFFECTING THERE WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES CONTINUING WHILE A RIDGE  IS AFFECTING THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE UNITED STATES THAT IT MOVES  A LITTLE BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE  WEST COAST. EVERYTHING TRANSLATES TO THE EAST WE'LL FINALLY SEE  THAT RIDGE BRINGING SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE CORN BELT  EVEN INTO THE EASTERN CORN BELT BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK BUT  THAT TROUGH REALLY DIGS INTO THE WEST TO LOOK FOR SOME MORE  STORMY CONDITIONS. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AS YOU START GETTING INTO THE WEST AND THEN  EVENTUALLY INTO THE NATION'S MIDSECTION AS THAT TROUGH MOVES  FURTHER TO THE EAST WITH THAT COLDER AIR INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST  LOOKING AT THE WEEK AHEAD. WE'RE GOING TO BE A LITTLE ON THE COOL  SIDE FOR PARTS OF THE CORN BELT. BUT FOR THE MOST PART DRY TO START  OFF THE WEEK WE'LL SEE THE WET WEATHER IN THE SOUTHEAST A LITTLE BIT  INTO ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MIGHT SEE A LITTLE BIT OF  RAIN INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST CORNERS REGION AND ANOTHER  SYSTEM IS GOING TO BE COMING ON THE WEST COAST HEADING INTO  WEDNESDAY STILL FAIRLY ON THE DRY SIDE AS YOU GET INTO MUCH OF  THE NATION'S MIDSECTION INTO THE SOUTH. THE WETTER WEATHER RAIN  AND SNOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON INTO THE NORTHEAST WE'LL SEE  RAIN IN UPPER ELEVATIONS SNOW IN PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST AS WELL  AND LOOK AT THAT YET ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING ONSHORE TO THE  NORTHWEST. THINGS GET A LOT MORE ACTIVE AS I MENTIONED AS WE  GET TOWARDS FRIDAY. SO WE START TO SEE A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS  THE NATION'S MIDSECTION WE'LL SEE DRY CONDITIONS IN THE EAST BUT  WE'LL WATCH FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PART  OF THE COUNTRY. THAT'S A LOOK LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT YOUR 30 DAY  FORECAST I SHOULD SAY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF  THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WHAT'S GOING  TO BE A LITTLE BIT WARM DOWN IN FLORIDA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN  PLAINS AND OVER TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION FAIRLY NORMAL  EVERYWHERE ELSE AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS CONCERNED WILL BE ON  THE WEST SIDE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES ALL THE WAY UP INTO  PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST. ALSO ON THE WET SIDE ALONG THE WEST COAST AS WELL AS SPOTS  ESPECIALLY THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BUT UNFORTUNATELY THE AREAS  THAT ARE DRIEST OUT THERE RIGHT NOW ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO BE DRY  OVER THE NEXT 30 DAYS. THAT'S A LOOK AT YOUR NATIONAL FORECAST.  NOW BACK TO NEWS.

 

WHEN WE RETURN, WE'RE HEADED OUT TO NORTH  DAKOTA FOR THIS WEEK'S MARKET DISCUSSION FROM  THE CHS ANNUAL MEETING AND AG INDUSTRY DAY. I  BATTLED THE FLU EARLIER THIS WEEK, SO THE  ANALYSTS TAKE OVER. THIS YOU WON'T WANT TO MISS. 

ROUNDTABLE 1
YOU KNOW, FLU SEASON HAS BEEN ROUGH THIS YEAR,  AND IT VISITED MY HOUSE THIS WEEK. THAT KEPT ME  FROM TRAVELING TO THE CHS ANNUAL MEETING AND  AG INDUSTRY DAY IN GRAND FORKS NORTH DAKOTA  FOR OUR ON SITE ROUND TABLES. LUCKILY WE HAVE  SOME GREAT ANALYSTS--LIKE TOMMY GRISAFI-- WILLING  TO STEP IN. WE'RE GOING TO START THE SHOW WITH OUR TWO GUESTS ELAINE KUB  AND MY FRIEND DUANE BUSSY AND MY NEW FRIEND ELAINE. THEY GOT  A LOT TO TELL YOU ABOUT THE USDA CROP REPORT. LET'S JUST GET RIGHT  INTO IT.  THIS IS INTERESTING WE'RE TAPING THIS RIGHT AS IT COMES OUT. YOU'RE  GOING TO GET OUR INITIAL REACTION OLDEST TO POINT OUT THE ONE THING  THAT JUMPED OUT TO ME WAS ARGENTINA'S SOYBEAN CROP. USDA DID  DROP IT FROM 54 MILLION METRIC TON LAST MONTH TO 47 MILLION METRIC  TON THIS MONTH. THAT'S MORE THAN IANTICIPATED THEY WERE GOING TO  DO MORE THAN THE TRADE ANTICIPATED THEY WERE GOING TO DO BACK IN DROUGHT YEARS OF 2012 THEY ONLY WOULD DIP DOWN ABOUT TWO  MILLION METRIC TON PER MONTH. USDA DOESN'T LIKE TO MAKE BIG  JUMPS.  SO A 7 MILLION METRIC TON DROP IS A BIG DROP AND THAT'S ABSOLUTELY  THE NUMBER THAT THE MARKET WAS WAITING FOR AND WAS WATCHING TO  SEE AND IT WAS IT WAS LOWER AS YOU MENTIONED FROM YOUR  ESTIMATES BUT ALSO THE ANALYST ESTIMATES IN GENERAL HOWEVER  MARKET REACTION WISE IT WASN'T HUGE I THINK IT BUMPED UP WHAT A  FEW CENTS THAT WE SAW RIGHT AT 11:00 WHEN THE REPORT CAME OUT.  AND IT STANDS WE WAIT AND SEE WHAT WILL HAPPEN BY THE END OF  THE DAY OR BY THE END OF THE WEEK GOING INTO THIS REPORT. IT SORT OF  LOOKED LIKE THE SWABIAN CHART WAS AT AN INFLECTION POINT AND WAS  WILLING TO START HEADING LOWER WHICH WOULD MAKE SENSE FROM A  SENSE FROM A STANDPOINT OF THE CRUSH GETTING KIND OF AWAY FROM  OURSELVES AND BEING OIL AND GLOBAL EDIBLE OILS IN GENERAL NOT  BEING ABLE TO SUPPORT THIS KIND OF A RALLY IN SOYBEANS. SO YES THE  MARKET WAS WAITING FOR THIS BULLISH NUMBER FROM USDA THAT GOT  THE BULLISH NUMBER FROM USDA. BUT I DON'T KNOW IF IT'S GOING TO  HAVE A LASTING ABILITY TO BUILD THE RALLY.  AND I CAN ADD AND I THINK I SEE SOME OF THE BEARISHNESS ON THE  SOYBEAN MARKET HERE SOYBEAN CRUSH IN THE U.S. DOMESTICALLY  WAS RAISED 10 MILLION BUSHELS. THAT'S NICE BUT WE'RE I THINK WE'RE  AT MAKSYM CAPACITY. I THINK IT'S A PROBLEM THERE. EXPORTS WERE  LOWERED AGAIN 35 MILLION BUSHELS. SO THAT MEANS THE U.S.  ENDING STOCKS WHAT WE'RE GOING TO HAVE IN THE U.S. THAT IS NOW  PROJECTED. FIVE HUNDRED FIFTY FIVE MILLION BUSHELS. THAT'S A LOT OF  SOYBEANS WE WE'RE GOING TO HAVE AN ON HAND AT THE END OF THIS  YEAR.  YOU KNOW IT'S MY OPINION EVERYONE WAS HOPING FOR SOMEONE  ELSE TO HAVE A PRODUCTION PROBLEM WE'RE HAVING IT NOW. WE'VE  GOT A LIVE AUDIENCE TODAY. WHAT CAN WE LEAVE THIS GROUP WITH.  THAT'S SOMETHING THAT'S ACTIONABLE HERE'S THE REPORT. CORN IS UP  BEANS ARE UNCHANGED. CORN IS UP A FEW PENNIES. WHAT CAN THIS  GROUP DO AND LEAVE AND SAY HEY I WENT AND WATCH U.S. FARM  REPORT.  I'M GOING LEAVE WITH ONE GOOD IDEA WHAT'S THAT IDEA LIKE YOU  MENTIONED WE KEEP ON WAITING FOR THIS BULLISH PROBLEM  SOMEWHERE ELSE IN THE WORLD. WE GOT IT WE GOT IT. I BELIEVE IT'S  PROBABLY ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE MARKET. EVERYONE HAS KNOWN  ABOUT THE ARGENTINA PRODUCTION PROBLEMS FOR WEEKS NOW. SO IT'S  BEEN PRICED IN AND PROBABLY YOUR OPPORTUNITIES TO SELL ARE HERE.  THERE'S KIND OF NOTHING MORE WE CAN DO AT THIS POINT BULLISHLY  FROM A FUNDAMENTAL STANDPOINT.  YEAH I'LL PIGGYBACK RIDE ON THAT IDEA YOU KNOW GOING INTO THIS  REPORT I WAS RECOMMENDING TO BE ABLE AT 50 PERCENT HEDGED ON  NEW CROP SOYBEANS OLD CROP SOYBEANS THAT I MISSED OUT AND  SOLD THEM A LITTLE BIT EARLIER BUT THAT'S FINE. THEY WERE PROFITABLE  FOUR MONTHS AGO WE WERE JUST BEGGING FOR A PROFIT AND I SEE IN  THIS REPORT I THINK WITH THE LANE SAYS YOU KNOW IT'S OLD NEWS A  LITTLE BIT. THE ARGENTINA DROUGHT THERE'S RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR  NEXT WEEK ONE OF THE G.F. US MODELS HAD LIKE 10 INCHES OF RAIN  COME IN. SO THE TRAINED REACTION AND THE CLOSE TODAY WILL BE VERY  IMPORTANT FOR ME BUT I'M STILL SAYING YOU NEED TO SELL SOYBEANS  HERE.  WELL IT'S IT'S PRESENTING A WONDERFUL OPPORTUNITY. IT'S IT'S FUNNY.  YEAR AFTER YEAR I NOTICED THAT THE FARMER GETS OF THEIR SOYBEANS  EARLY. THEY RALLY. THEY HOLD THEIR CORN. WHAT SHOULD THEY DO WITH  CORN IN THE IN THE BIN.  SO THE REPORT WAS ACTUALLY PRETTY BULLISH. WE SAW AN INCREASE IN  EXPORTS AN INCREASE IN ETHANOL AND WE KNOW THAT FROM THE CATTLE  ON FEED REPORTS AND JUST THE POULTRY NUMBERS THAT FEED IS  PROBABLY EXPECTED TO GROW THIS YEAR. SO YOU COULD MAKE A  BULLISH CASE FUNDAMENTALLY FOR CORN BUT AGAIN FROM A PROFITABILITY  STANDPOINT FROM A SEASONALITY STANDPOINT I'M A BUYER I'M I'M  BEARISH ON NEW CROP CORN SYRUP.  SOME OF THE CORN NUMBERS THEY DID RAISE ETHANOL DEMAND 50  MILLION BUSHELS DOMESTICALLY HERE. EXPORTS WERE RAISED 175  MILLION BUSHELS WHICH IS IMPRESSIVE BECAUSE WE WERE BEHIND THE  PACE A LITTLE BIT. SO USDA IS GUESSING THAT DURING THE SUMMER  WE'RE GOING TO PUSH OUT A LOT OF CORN. AND I'M BULLISH THAT DOESN'T  SURPRISE ME BECAUSE WE ARE THE CHEAPEST CORN IN THE WORLD RIGHT  NOW IN WORLD STOCKS ARE DOWN SHARPLY. YES WE HAVE A LOT OF CORN  HERE BUT WE'RE GOING TO SHIP IT OUT HERE.  WE HAVE ONE MINUTE LEFT. ANYONE WANT TO TALK ABOUT SPRING. WE  HAVE A ROOM FULL OF SPRING WHEAT GROWERS. LET'S DO IT.  YEAH ABSOLUTELY. SO THE STOCKS TO USE RATIO FOR SPRING WHEAT FOR  DURUM WHEAT FOR WHITE WHEAT FOR THOSE MILLING WHEAT VARIETIES. IF  YOU DRILL INTO THE SUPPLY AND DEMAND TABLES THOSE STOCKS TO USE  RATIOS ARE LIKE 34 PERCENT COMPARED TO THE MORE GENERAL FEED  WHEAT VARIETY WHICH STOCKS TO USE RATIO IS ABYSMAL 76 PERCENT  SOMETHING LIKE THAT. SO THERE IS SORT OF TWO WHEAT MARKETS GOING  ON AND I THINK AS THE GROWING SEASON GOES ON IF THE DROUGHT  PERSISTS ALL ACROSS OF NORTH AMERICA'S WHEAT GROWING REGIONS ALL  THE WAY UP INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES I THINK THERE'S A POSSIBILITY  FOR SPRING WHEAT TO PULL AWAY BUT IT REALLY DEPENDS ON THE  WEATHER HERE IN THE NORTHERN PLAIN IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS AND  HOW MANY ACRES WE PLANT.  IT'S ALREADY TIME FOR A BREAK STICK WITH US. WE'RE GOING TO TAKE A  LITTLE BREAK AND COME BACK TO MORE U.S. FARM REPORT. 

JOHN’S WORLD
THE TARIFFS ON STEEL AND ALUMINUM COULD BE FAR  REACHING. HERE'S JOHN PHIPPS. IT WOULD BE IRRESPONSIBLE OF ME, I THINK, TO NOT TALK ABOUT THE  TRADE WAR. IT HAS BEEN THE TOPIC FOR LAST FEW DAYS. BUT WHILE I  THINK THE ACTIONS TAKEN BY PRESIDENT TRUMP ARE ECONOMICALLY  UNJUSTIFIED AND COUNTERPRODUCTIVE, I THINK IT IS HARD TO PREDICT THE  CONSEQUENCES BOTH HERE AND ABROAD. ONE REASON IS THE BATHTUB  THEORY. THIS METAPHOR WAS DEVELOPED I THINK DURING THE 80S TO HELP  EXPLAIN TRADE EFFECTS IN OIL. IT GOES LIKE THIS. INSTEAD OF THINKING OF  OIL AS SOMETHING SAUDI ARABIA SELLS AND THE US BUYS, IT IS MORE  HELPFUL TO THINK OF ALL OIL PRODUCERS PUMPING THEIR OIL INTO A BIG  BATHTUB REPRESENTING THE GLOBAL MARKET. MEANWHILE OIL USERS  DRAIN FROM THAT SAME BATHTUB. SINCE OIL IS OIL, FOR THE MOST PART,  ANY CHANGE IN TRADE BETWEEN PRODUCERS AND USERS SIMPLY  DIVERTS FLOWS TO AND FROM THE BATHTUB. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE  WHEN THERE IS A GOOD SUPPLY. STEEL, THE CENTER OF THE CURRENT TRADE FIGHT, IS ALSO A COMMODITY.  IN FACT, THE LOW-COST, NO-FILLS STEEL PRODUCED BY CHINA IS NO  DIFFERENT FROM CANADIAN OR JAPANESE CRUDE STEEL. WITH CHINA  CAPABLE OF FLOODING THE BATHTUB WITH STEEL, BI-LATERAL TRADE FRICTION  LIKE TARIFFS ARE PRETTY EASY TO GET AROUND – YOU JUST ORDER FROM  SOMEBODY ELSE. THE ONLY EFFECTIVE TARIFF THEN IS A COMPLETE TARIFF  ON ALL NON-US SUPPLIERS, WHICH AT THE TIME I'M TAPING IS WHAT  PRESIDENT TRUMP INTENDS. BUT THE BATHTUB OF STEEL STILL IS OUT THERE. RAISING OUR STEEL TARIFFS  MEANS OTHER USERS PROBABLY JUST GOT A PRICE CUT. THIS MAKES THE  COST TO STEEL USERS IN THE US EVEN MORE PAINFUL. OUR FAUCET,  WHICH IS ABOUT 10% OF GLOBAL TRADE, SIMPLY ISN'T BIG ENOUGH TO  REALLY CHANGE THE TUB LEVEL, EVEN IF WE SHUT IT OFF. GLOBAL TRADE IN COMMODITIES LIKE STEEL IS HARD TO CONTROL,  BECAUSE THE PRODUCT IS IDENTICAL. IN THE LAST FEW YEARS, TRADE  AROUND THE WORLD HAS ACCELERATED BETWEEN MORE COUNTRIES THAN  EVER. NOT EVEN THE US CAN REALLY SLOW THIS DOWN ANYMORE IT CAN  ONLY SHIFT THE FLOWS. IN FACT, AS MORE PROTECTIONISM IS USED BY THE  US, THOSE FLOWS WILL BE AROUND US, NOT WITH US. THIS IS A COMPLICATED ISSUE, BUT THE POINT I WANT TO MAKE IS  REGARDLESS OF THE HYPE, THE STEEL TARIFFS ARE PROBABLY NOT A BIG  DEAL FOR THE REST OF THE WORLD. THEY ARE A BIG DEAL FOR AMERICANS.  I'LL TALK ABOUT WHY NEXT WEEK. THANKS JOHN..

TEASE
WHEN WE COME BACK, MACHINERY PETE HAS THIS  WEEK'S TRACTOR TALES. THAT'S NEXT.

TRACTOR TALES
WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES FOLKS. THIS WEEK WE'RE GOING TO  TELL YOU ABOUT A UNIQUE TRACTOR WE FOUND ON AN AUCTION IN OHIO.  THIS IS A 1938 HUBER AND WAS OWNED BY PETE FROM OHIO. WERE  STARTED BUILDING TRACTORS IN 1898 BUT MOVED THE CONSTRUCTION  EQUIPMENT IN 1942. THIS IS A ROW CROP TRACTOR. THESE ARE  SPECIALLY DIFFERENT FROM THE WIDE FRONT END ONES THAT WERE MORE  STATIONARY TO RUN THRASH MACHINES THESE WERE USED MORE FOR A  ROW CROP IN THE FIELDS AND THEY MADE 400 OF THEM. THEY USED A  WALKINGSHAW MOTOR. THEY WEREN'T VERY POPULAR. THEY'RE KIND OF  RARE. THEY MADE MORE THE STATIONARY TRACTORS THE WIDER FRONT  ENDS THE ROW CROP IT'S PRETTY PRETTY UNIQUE. USUALLY THE HUBER'S ARE GREEN. THEY PAINTED THE ROW CROPS GRAY. SO YEAH THAT'S A  LITTLE BIT UNIQUE THERE BEING GRAY. THIS COME FROM AN AUCTION IN  INDIANA. THT USUALLY FIRES RIGHT UP. I PREFER A BATTERY WHERE YOU TURN THE KEY OR PUSH THE BUTTON AND START THEM ON A HOT DAY. IT RAN WHEN  WE GOT IT AND WE JUST REPAINTED IT FOR THE MOST PART. WE DIDN'T DO  MUCH MECHANICAL MECHANICAL WORK WAS PRETTY GOOD ON IT AND A  LOT OF PEOPLE ENJOY IT AT THE PARADES. .  THANKS SO MUCH. 

TEASE
STILL TO COME... CAN SAFETY NET  CHANGES AND THE PROMISE OF BETTER PRICES HELP  TO GROW COTTON ACRES? WE'LL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK IN THE NEXT HALF HOUR  OF U.S. FARM REPORT. AND IT'S PART OF TWO OUR MARKET DISCUSSION FROM  NORTH DAKOTA.

FARM JOURNAL REPORT
THE COTTON INDUSTRY SEEING A NUMBER OF  CHANGES ALREADY IN 2018. THAT INCLUDES GINNING ASSISTANCE AND A NEW  SAFETY-NET. WITH THE CHANGES AND PRICES ON THE RISE, IN THIS  FARM JOURNAL REPORT, BETSY JIBBEN REPORTS AND  EXPECTATIONS FOR THE NEW YEAR.   PLANTING INTENTIONS ARE NOW TURNING INTO  DECISIONS FOR THE 2018 SEASON.  BUT SOME GROWERS HAD A PLAN LONG AGO.  <"USUALLY WE PLANT COTTON FOR 2 YEARS, AND THEN FOLLOW WITH  PEANUTS ONE YEAR. WE PRETTY MUCH STAY ON A ROTATION.">  <"COTTON ACRES MAY GO UP A LITTLE BIT BUT I DON'T SEE IT GOING UP A  WHOLE LOT."> BOTH THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE AND THE  NATIONAL COTTON COUNCIL EXPECTING CLIMGING  COTTON ACRES IN 2018. <"IN THIS PART OF TEXAS, IT'S BEEN MORE THAN 100 DAYS WITHOUT  PRECEIPATION. SO THAT'S BROKEN A RECORD,"> SOMETHING NCC TOOK INTO CONSIDERATION FOR ITS  SURVEY.  <"THE STANDARD CONVENTION, YOU HAVE TO ASSUME ABANDONMENT  IS CONSISTENT WITH 5 YEAR AVERAGES. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE DRY  CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST, THE ASSUMED ABANDONMENT RATES  FOR TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WERE HIGHER THAN THE RECENT 5 YEAR  AVERAGE."> <"I THINK THE SECOND FACTOR TO COTTON ISN'T JUST THE ACREAGE BUT THE  WEATHER IN WEST TEXAS. THE SAME FUNDAMENTALS DRIVING THE WHEAT  STORY RIGHT NOW SHOULD HAVE AN INPACT ON COTTON,> DESPITE DRYNESS, QUESTIONS ARE RAISED ABOUT THE  REAL SIZE OF THE 2018 CROP.  <"I THINK THE NUMBERS FROM NCC AND USDA ARE ON THE LOWER  SIDE.">  <" I DONT' THINK THERE WILL BE A WHOLE LOT MORE ANYWAYS. RIGHT NOW  PRIVATE ESTIMATES SHOW 13.1, 13.2, THAT'S UP 4 PERCENT FROM LAST  YEAR. IT'S ABOUT 1 PERCENT INCREASE ACROSS GEORGIA."> GOVERNMENT HELP MAY ALSO PLAY A ROLL IN  PLANTING DECISIONS.  AG SECRETARY SONNY PERDUE ANNOUNCING EARLIER  IN THE MONTH THE COTTON INDUSTRY WILL RECEIVE  MARKETING ASSISTANCE PAYMENTS FOR THE 2016  CROP - WITH A GINNING COST SHARE PROGRAM .  <"THIS PROGRAM WILL PROVIDE DIRECT MARKETING ASSISTANCE TO  PRODUCERS AND HELP ALEVIATE A PORTION OF THE ECONOMIC  CONDITIONS PRODUCERS ARE STRUGGLING WITH. 03 IT WILL HELP TO FILL THE  VOID UNTIL THE TITLE ONE SEED COTTON ARC AND PLC PROGRAMS IS  IMPLEMENTED WITH THE 2018 CROP YEAR."> ENTERING TITLE I MAY BE THE BIGGEST AID. NOW  OFFICIAL FOLLOWING MONTHS OF LOBBYING. THE TWO MAIN TICKET ITEMS ARE COTTON AND DAIRY"> < THE STAX PROGRAM, INSURANCE PROGRAM WITH COTTON DIDN'T  WORK VERY WELL."> <"WE NEED SOME TYPE OF SAFETY-NET,"> COTTON IS NOW COVERED BY THE ARC AND PLC  PROGRAMS. <"I DONT THINK THERE'S A SINGLE PERSON IN AG CIRCLES THAT WOULD TELL  YOU COTTON AND DAIRY WEREN'T THE COMMODITIES WITH THE POOREST  SAFETYNET. SO THAT GOT RESOLVED.">  FARMERS HAVE UNTIL EARLY MAY TO REALLOCATE  GENERIC BASE ACRES UNDER EITHER SEED COTTON OR  SEED COTTON AND OTHER COVERED COMMODITIES. COTTON GROWERS NEED TO FIGURE OUT IF THEY'RE  GOING TO USE THE ARC FORMULA.  OR TWO OPTIONS WITHIN THE  PLC FORMULA TO FIND  YIELD.  <"I FEEL LIKE WE'LL ENROLL IN PLC. IT GIVES US A SAFETYNET."> IF THEY USE THE PLC PROGRAM, GROWERS NEED TO  PLUG IN A REFERENCE PRICE, A WEIGHTED AVERAGE  BETWEEN LINT AND SEED.    <" IF WE LOOK AT WHAT THAT 36.7 REFERENCE PRICE, WOULD HAVE PAID  OUT OVER THE LAST 10 YEARS, HAD THIS SEED COTTON  PROGRAM BEEN  IN PLACE, WOULD HAVE PAID OUT 6 OUT OF THE LAST 10 YEARS.">  <"I THINK IT'S FAIR. I THINK IT'S A GOOD SAFETYNET AND I THINK IT'S A  GOOD PRICE,"> BUT ANALYSTS SAY FARM BILL CHANGES ALONE WON'T  SWAY ACRES...      <WE HAVEN'T MET A FARMER YET WHO WOULD RATHER GET THEIR  PAYMENTS WITH GOVERNMENT PAYMENTS THAN THE MARKET,">  BUT IT DOES MAKE KING COTTON MORE COMPETITIVE  WITH ITS RIVAL, PEANUTS. ESPECIALLY WITH PRICE.  DAVIS GROWS BOTH. <"I SHOULD SAY, YEAH, RIGHT NOW THEY SHOULD BE COMPETITIVE WITH  THE PRICES THEY ARE AT TODAY."> <"PRODUCERS ARE NO LONGER FARMING FOR PAYMENTS FOR PEANUTS,  THEY'RE GOING TO LOOK AT MARKET PRICES. THE MARKET PRICE FOR  COTTON IS MORE COMPETITIVE THAN THE MARKET PRICE OF PEANUTS.">  <" I THINK THAT'S WHERE WE'RE GOING TO SEE THAT SHIFT IN ACRES AWAY  FROM PEANUTS TO COTTON,"> <" MY FORECAST IS LESS THAN IT WAS. I HATE TO PUT IT AROUND 13  MILLION ACRES BUT AGAIN, THE BEAN MARKET HAS CHANGED SOME OF  MY OPIONIN ON THAT. I THINK THAT'S WHY WE'VE SEEN COTTON RALLY,"> HOWEVER, NCC ANTICIPATING A 42 PERCENT ACREAGE  JUMP IN KANSAS, AND A 30 PERCENT JUMP IN  OKLAHOMA DUE TO LOWER WHEAT PRICES AND ABOVE AVERAGE  COTTON YIELDS IN 2017.  <"ARKANSAS HAD A LITTLE BIT OF AN ISSUE LAST YEAR WITH STORING  COTTONSEED SINCE T HERE WAS SO MUCH COTTONSEED AND DNOT  ENOUGH WAREEHOUSE SPACE. WITH A HUGE HIKE, YOU MAY SEE A  SLOWER GIN PROCESSING TIME OR POSSIBLY THE LACK OF STORING SPACE  FOR COTTONSEED,"> BUT DAVIS ISN'T NEW TO COTTON.. AND THAT'S WHY HE  WILL CONTINUE TO PLANT IF THE MARKET ALLOWS IT. <"CERTAINLY WE WANT TO HAVE ALL THE COTTON BASE WE CAN SINCE WE  ARE PREDOMINATELY COTTON FARMERS AND THTAQ'S OUR BIGGEST  ACREAGE HERE ON OUR FARMM EVERY YEAR IS COTTON,">              THE TRADE UNCERTANITY IS WEIGHING ON THE COTTON  INDUSTRY AS WELL.  THE PRESIDENT HAS FORMALLY ORDERED TARIFFS ON  STEEL AND ALUMINUM IMPORTS WITH EXCEPTIONS FOR  CANADA AND MEXICO.  CHINA AND TURKEY BOTH SAYING THEY WILL  POTENTIALLY RETALIATE - BOTH BIG BUYERS OF U.S.  COTTON.  THANKS BETSY. THIS WEEK'S WASDE REPORT RAISED EXPORTS BY 300- THOUSAND BALES ON STRONGER WORLD DEMAND AND  EXPECTATIONS OF ABOVE-AVERAGE SHIPMENTS  DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE MARKETING YEAR.  THAT BROUGHT ENDING STOCKS DOWN BY ROUGHLY A  HALF MILLION BALES. .

TEASE
WE'LL HEAD BACK TO NORTH DAKOTA AND TOMMY  GRISAFI FOR OUR MARKETS CONVERSATION--RIGHT  AFTER THE BREAK.

ROUNDTABLE 2
IT'S TIME NOW FOR ROUND 2 OF OUR MARKETING  DISCUSSION. TOMMY, TAKE IT AWAY.  WELCOME BACK FOR PART TWO OF OUR U.S. FARM REPORT. HERE LIVE IN  GRAND FORKS NORTH DAKOTA AT CHA AG SERVICE DAY. WE'RE GOING  TO GO RIGHT BACK TO SPRING WHEAT. THIS CROWD WANT TO HEAR MORE  ABOUT IT. LET'S GET DOWN TO IT.  YOU KNOW WE'RE BRINGING UP THE POINT THAT SPRING WHEAT STOCKS  ARE DOWN. THEY'VE ACTUALLY DECREASED THE LAST THREE YEARS I THINK  IT'S THE ONLY CROP WE'VE GOT IN THE U.S. THAT HAS A BULLISH  SITUATION. WHEN YOU LOOK AT INDIVIDUAL SUPPLY. THAT'S WHY WE HAD  A HUGE RALLY IN SPRING LAST YEAR OF COURSE WE HAD A HECK OF A  WEATHER THREAT IN THERE TOO. SO I'M BULLISH SPRING WHEAT AS FAR AS  THAT. WE DON'T HAVE A HUGE CARIO TO WORRY ABOUT ARISED SHOULD  SAY A BEGINNING STOCKS TO WORRY ABOUT. HERE'S A TYPICAL BROKER  I'M GOING TELL YOU THE OTHER SIDE TOO THOUGH. I THINK WE'RE GOING  TO PLANT MORE SPRING WHEAT THIS YEAR. ONE POINT ZERO TO ONE POINT  FIVE MILLION MORE ACRES OF SPRING WHEAT. I THINK IT WAS. AND SO IF  WE PLANT MORE ACRES TOMMY I CAN'T GET TOO CRAZY BULLISH MY  FRIENDS WHO SELL SEED THERE.  MY BEST INDICATOR OF HEY WHAT DO YOU SELL AND THERE'S A TON OF  BEANS A TON OF SPRING WHEAT. WHAT'S THAT MAKE THE CORN PICTURE  LOOK LIKE. MAYBE THAT'S THE STORY MAYBE WE'LL BE NEXT ON SOME  CORN IN NORTH DAKOTA MINNESOTA RED RIVER VALLEY.  THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR RIGHT WHEN ANALYSTS ARE ALL TRYING TO  GUESS THE ACRES AND HERE'S MY HERE'S MY CONTRARY OPINION ON  THAT. IT ALMOST DOESN'T MATTER HOW MUCH CORN ACRES YOU LOSE WE  JUST THE ENDING STOCKS TWO POINT ONE TO SEVEN BILLION BUSHELS.  THERE IS NO AMOUNT IS A REASONABLE AMOUNT OF LOSS OF CORN  ACRES THAT COULD PULL THAT ENDING STOCKS NUMBER IN 2019 TO  SOMETHING THAT WOULD BE SUDDENLY BULLISH LIKE A FIVE DOLLAR KIND  OF BULLISH. SO SURE YOU MIGHT HAVE LESS THAN 90 MILLION ACRES BUT  IT ALMOST DOESN'T MATTER.  I THINK I HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING BULLISH UP FROM AN ACREAGE  PERSPECTIVE EVEN FOR CORN UNLESS LET LET ME PLAY THE OTHER SIDE OF  THAT WHAT IF I'M RIGHT SPRING WHEAT ACRES GAIN. SOYBEANS ARE  GOING TO GAIN ACRES I REALLY THINK SOLD THERE TOO. SO WE'RE RUNNING  OUT OF ACRES COTTON'S GOING AGAIN AS WELL IF NEW CROP CORN ACRES  ARE BELOW 90 SAY THERE WERE LIKE EIGHTY NINE MILLION IN SAY WE  HAVE A WEATHER SCARE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE WHERE WE THINK  THAT THE YIELD IS 167 YOU KNOW WHAT OUR STOCK WOULD DROP DOWN  TO A ONE POINT 375.  THAT'S STILL ENOUGH CORN IT CAN'T BUY IT IS IT'S ENOUGH CORN TO GET  BY. BUT  IT'S ALSO ENOUGH OF A SCARE TO PUSH MONEY INTO THE MARKET AND  HAVE CORN PRICES.  TALK ABOUT THAT TALK ABOUT MONEY IN THE MARKETS. MY BAD  BACKGROUND I TRADED SOME STOCK IN THIS FUTURES. VOLATILITY GOES  FROM 10 TO 15 48 HOURS. WHAT'S THAT MEAN TO THE FARMER WHEN  THEY SEE THE DOW JONES BREAK. TWENTY SIX HUNDRED POINTS IN A  COUPLE OF DAYS.  WE ARE SEEING INVESTMENT MONEY COMING INTO THE COMMODITIES  IN GENERAL AND IN CRUDE OIL AND FOR GRAINS. I THINK WE CAN BENEFIT  FROM SOME OF THAT INVESTMENT MONEY FLOWING IN.  AND THAT'S ONE OF THE MAIN REASONS WHY I'M BULLISH IN 2018 AS  MONEY FLOW. WE DIDN'T HAVE ANY OF IT LAST YEAR IF YOU ASK ME. THE  DOW WHEN IT CRASHED THE OTHER DAY I THINK FOR THE FIRST TIME IN  THREE YEARS SHOWED THAT IT'S NOT INVINCIBLE ANYMORE. SO NO  MONEY IS LOOKING FOR A BETTER INVESTMENT. AND WHEN YOU LOOK AT  WHERE THE DOW IS THAT NOW COMPARED TO WHERE CORN PRICES ARE IF  YOU LOOK AT LIKE INFLATION.WHAT A GREAT BUY ELAINE DUWAYNE IS VOLATILITY GOOD OR BAD FOR  THE FARMER IN YOUR OPINION.  IF IT'S UPSIDE VOLATILITY THAT'S GOOD BUT I WAS JUST GOING TO CAUTION  THAT JUST BECAUSE WE GET INVESTMENT MONEY COMING IN IT DOESN'T  NECESSARILY HAVE TO BE LONG INVESTMENT MONEY. IT COULD BE  PEOPLE COMING IN AND SHORT SELLING SOYBEANS SEEING THAT CRUSH  YOU'RE SEEING A TREND FALLING OPPORTUNITY ACTUALLY BE BEARISH.  STAY WITH THAT. WE HAVE A COUPLE OF MINUTES LEFT. THE FUNDS IF WE  WERE DOING THE SHOW A FEW MINUTES A FEW MONTHS AGO THE FUNDS  WOULD HAVE BEEN ALMOST A RECORD SHORT. RIGHT NOW.  AS FAR AS COTTON THERE I'VE ACTUALLY GONE FROM RECORD SHORT TO A  LITTLE BIT LONG. AND THAT'S WHY THE CORN MARKET HAS RALLIED.  SOYBEANS  SOYBEAN MEAL I LOOKED AT CHART THE DAY THE FUNDS HAVE ADDED  QUITE A LOT. IT'S EASY TO GET IN. BUT BOY WHEN THEY GO TO GET OUT I  DON'T KNOW IF YOU WANT TO BE ON THAT SITE RIGHT.  JUST DID THAT STORY THIS STORY ABOUT ARGENTINA. THAT'S WHAT DROVE  THEM INTO THAT. AND SO NOW WHAT HAPPENS IS THAT THE STORY IS  PRETTY WELL PLAYED OUT. HARD TO SAY.  IT COULD BE IT COULD BE VOLATILE LIKE YOU SAY BY VOLATILITIES FRIEND IF  YOU KNOW HOW TO HARNESS IT. ONE MINUTE LEFT. LET'S LET'S GO FROM  MY OTHER BACKGROUND. TRADING BONDS AT THE CHICAGO BOARD OF  TRADE. LET'S TALK ABOUT INTEREST RATES SOMETHING THAT HADN'T  MOVED FOR 10 YEARS BECAUSE OF QUANTITATIVE EASING BUT INTEREST  RATES ARE GOING UP. WHAT'S THAT MEAN FOR YOU AS A FARMER WHAT'S  IT MEAN TO YOU AS AN ANALYST WHAT DO YOU TELL PEOPLE.  I THINK THAT EVEN THE EURO THE EUROPEAN BANKERS HAVE COME OUT  TODAY SAYING THAT THEY'RE WILLING TO LET INTEREST RATES KEEP RISING.  THAT'S THE EXPECTATION FROM THE U.S. CENTRAL BANK THAT IS THE  EXPECTATION THAT FARMERS HAVE TO DEAL WITH AND IT CAN AFFECT LAND  PRICES AND LOTS OF THINGS FOR ME ON MY FARM WHAT IT DOES IS IT'S  BACK TO WHEN I ORIGINALLY STARTED FARMING NO TOMMY CAN JOKE  ABOUT HOW OLD I'M GETTING. BUT INTEREST RATES MATTER AGAIN NOW  AS FAR AS WHAT I'M STORING ON YOU KNOW IF I STORE CORN UNTIL  AUGUST THERE IS AN INTEREST RATE COST THERE OF A PENNY AND 30  SEONDS LEFT.  GIVE US SOMETHING THAT THIS ROOM CAN DO THAT'S ACTIONABLE THAT  THEY CAN SAY INTEREST RATES ARE GOING UP WHAT YOU CAN DO WITH  YOUR CORN.  YOU CAN SELL IT AND BUY IT BACK WITH THE CME PRODUCT. WOULDN'T  BE ONE OF THEM THAT I WOULD YOU KNOW TO ME IT SOUNDS GREAT.  EVERY COMMISSIONS BROKER.  YES. BUT THEY CAN PAY THAT BANK BACK. I'D LIKE TO BE THE FIRST ONE I  TOLD MY CLIENTS BE THE FIRST ONE IN YOUR BANKER'S OFFICE NOT THE LAST.  YEAH. SO THAT'S A GOOD POINT TO KNOW. YOU KNOW WHAT WE'RE  GETTING THAT WITH THESE INTEREST RATES IS MAYBE IT IS BETTER TO SELL  THE CORN AND BUY IT BACK. BUT YOU NEED TO DO SOMETHING TO BUY  BACK SELL IT AND FORGET ABOUT IT AND CERTAINLY TO BE MINDFUL OF THE  INTEREST RATES ON ANYTHING YOU'RE BORROWING FOR SURE AND STICK TO  THE MARKETING PLAN. YOU KNOW I'M TALKING ABOUT VOLATILITY HOW  GREAT IT IS RUN YOUR FARM LIKE A BUSINESS AND LIKE I'VE HEARD  TOMMY SAY IT'S OK TO MAKE MONEY.  IT'S BEEN A FUN DISCUSSION. WHY THANK YOU SO MUCH. STICK  AROUND FOR A LITTLE BIT MORE U.S. FARM REPORT AFTER THIS BREAK. 

BAXTER BLACK
SAYING GOODBYE IS OFTEN THE HARDEST PART OF  LIVING. COWBOY POET-- BAXTER BLACK -- CAPTURES THE  SENTIMENTS BEAUTIFULLY-- FROM OUT THERE. WE HAVE WATCHED THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE ACTIVELY INVOLVED IN  PRODUCTION AGRICULTURE DECLINE STEADILY FROM 37 PERCENT IN  NINETEEN HUNDRED TO 12 PERCENT IN THE 50S AND TO 2 PERCENT  TODAY. YOU KNOW I GOT THIS RASH FROM MY DADDY WHO CAME HERE AFTER  THE WAR. HE CARVED THIS PLACE OUT OF GRISSLE AND BLOOD TILL EVERY  MUSCLE WAS SORE. SO I TAKE OVER IN THE 80S AND MADE MY DARLING  IN MAY. AND TOGETHER WE WEATHERED WHATEVER CAME UP. SHE HAD  WANTED TO STAY. LAST WINTER WE FINALLY DECIDED TO PACK UP AND  LEAVE IN THE SPRING. KIDS ARE ALL GROWN AND CITY FOLKS NOW. BUT  WE NEVER RAISED HIM BRICKLAYING. OH SURE I WISH THEY TOO WANTED  TO RANCH AND CARRIED ON BUT THEY DID THEIR PART. AND I THANK HIM  FOR THAT. AND THEY CHOSE. AND NOW I'M GONE. THIS LAST 30 ODD  YEARS WE'VE COLLECTED AN AMAZING NUMBER OF THINGS. BONNETS  AND. BOTTLES AND CLIPPINGS AND LETTERS AND DAD'S OLD SINGLE RINGS.  WE SPENT THE WINTER MONTHS SORTING. OUR HEARTS WOULD ACHE OR  WOULD JUMP. AS WE LOOKED AT OUR LIVES AND THE TRINKETS WE'D  SAVED. AND BOXED UP. OR TOOK TO THE DUMP. WE CRIED SOMETIMES  IN THE ATTIC. I'M NOT ASHAMED OF THE TRUTH. I LOVE THIS OLD. THEY  WERE LEAVING. WE GAVE IT THE STRENGTH OF OUR YOUTH. AND I LOVE  THIS OLD WOMAN BESIDE ME. SHE HELD ME AND STAYED BY MY SIDE  AND I TOLD HER I WAS THINKING ABOUT SELLING. SHE SAID HONEY. I'M  HERE FOR THE RIDE. WELL THESE NEW FELLERS MOVING IN MONDAY ARE  NICE AND. I WISH THEM GOOD LUCK AND I'D RATHER BE GONE. SO MAW  GET YOUR STUFF. I'VE ALREADY GASSED UP THE TRUCK. AND LOOKING  BACK OVER MY SHOULDER AT THE MAILBOX. I GUESS THAT I KNOW THERE  WAS A TIME TO BE STAY. AND A TIME TO BE GOIN'. AND I RECKON. IT'S  TIME. THAT WE GO. THIS IS BAXTER BLACK FROM OUT THERE. THANKS BAXTER. YOU CAN READ, WATCH AND HEAR 

TEASE
FROM BAXTER ON HIS WEBSITE, BAXTERBLACK DOT  COM. WHEN WE COME BACK, CUSTOMER SUPPORT ASKS  JOHN PHIPPS...

CUSTOMER SUPPORT
IN CUSTOMER SUPPORT IT'S NOT OFTEN JOHN PHIPPS  GETS TO SHARE SOME OF THE NUTS AND BOLTS OF HIS  ON FARM BATTLES. TODAY HE'S IN THE WEEDS. JOHN. DOUG FOX FROM AUSTIN, MINNESOTA HAS A QUESTION ABOUT HOW WE  CONTROL WEEDS: "I REALIZE YOU ARE AWAY FROM YOUR FARM AS YOU HANDED THE REINS  OVER TO YOUR SON, BUT AS LONG AS I'VE WATCHED YOU I DON'T THINK  I'VE EVER, MAYBE ONCE, SEEN YOU ON YOUR FARM TALKING ABOUT  WHAT YOU THINK ABOUT WHAT YOU SEE IN YOUR PART OF THE COUNTRY  ABOUT CROP GROWTH & WEED CONTROL AND HOW IT IS GOING." TO BEGIN WITH, LIKE MANY RETIRED FARMERS, VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED.  AARON AND I ARE STILL THE PRINCIPAL OPERATORS, I STILL LIVE ON THE  FARM, AND I STILL DO PRETTY MUCH THE SAME WORK – EXCEPT FOR  MAKING FINAL DECISIONS. THE MAIN REASON I DON'T TALK IN DETAIL  ABOUT HOW WE ARE MANAGING OUT OPERATIONS IS IT IMPLIES SOME  EXPERTISE ON OUR PART. LIKE MOST FARMERS, WE SIMPLY DOING OUR  BEST TO DEAL WITH THESE ISSUES. WHAT I CAN SHARE ARE SOME GUIDELINES AARON AND I HAVE  ASSEMBLED OVER THE LAST TEN YEARS TOGETHER. FIRST, PREDICTIONS OF MORE FREQUENT LARGE RAIN EVENTS LOOK  ACCURATE. WE HAVE INVESTED IN DRAINAGE TO DEAL WITH THIS. SECOND, OUR GROWING SEASON IS NOTICEABLY LONGER. WE ARE LESS  CONCERNED ABOUT DAMAGING FROSTS BOTH IN SPRING AND FALL. THIS  MEANS WE PLANT EARLIER, ESPECIALLY SOYBEANS, AND ARE TRENDING TO  SLIGHTLY LONGER SEASON HYBRIDS. THIRD, WEED CONTROL OVER THE LAST FEW SEASONS HAS BECOME THE  ALL-OUT BATTLE IS WAS TWENTY YEAR AGO. OUR HERBICIDE BUDGET HAS  TRIPLED IN THE LAST 5 YEARS. FOR US, THE MAIN THREATS ARE  WATERHEMP, GIANT RAGWEED, AND MARESTAIL. THIS CHALLENGE SHOWS  NO SIGN OF DIMINISHING. WE ARE MAKING HEADWAY, BUT I DON'T THINK  THE MAGIC GLYPHOSATE DAYS OF THE LATE 90S WILL EVER COME AGAIN. FOURTH, WE'VE STOPPED USING BELOW-GROUND TRAITS IN OUR CORN. WE  KNOW THE RISK, AND SIMPLY HAVE NOT SEEN THE RETURNS. SINCE  HERBICIDE COSTS ARE ALREADY CONSIDERABLE, WE GROW SOME NON- GMO CORN BOTH FOR PREMIUMS AND COST SAVINGS. FIFTH, WE DON'T SEE ANY OF THESE TRENDS SHIFTING RAPIDLY OR SOON. THIS IS OUR PLAN, AND IT PROBABLY WILL FIT FEW OTHERS, BUT YOU  ASKED. THANKS, JOHN.

TEASE
AND IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS, EMAIL  JOHN AT MAILBAG AT U-S FARM REPORT DOT COM. WHEN WE COME BACK, THE SNOWPACK SITUATION IN  THE WEST IS MUCH DIFFERENT FROM A YEAR AGO.  WE'LL TAKE A LOOK AFTER THE BREAK. 

FROM THE FARM
TODAY FROM THE FARM TO THE BIG STAGE-- IT WAS  THE WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP CHEESE CONTEST THIS  WEEK IN MADISON, WISCONSIN. ELD EVERY OTHER YEAR, ORGANIZERS SAY THERE  ARE A RECORD NUMBER OF ENTRIES - MORE THAN 34- HUNDRED. PARTICIPATION IS UP 15-PERCENT FROM  2016. . THERE ARE ONE-HUNDRED-21 CLASSES OF DAIRY  PRODUCTS. THIS IS THE FIRST YEAR IT'S BEEN JUDGED AT THE  WORLD CHEESE CHAMPIONSHIPS "OUR CONTEST CHANGES JUST AS CONSUMER PREFERENCES DO. IN THE  MARKETPLACE YOU ARE SEEING GROWTH IN INTERNATIONAL CHEESES,  THINGS LIKE PANEER."> ACCORDING TO THE WISCONSIN MILK MARKETING  BOARD, THE AMOUNT OF PANEER SOLD NATIONWIDE  DOUBLED FROM 2013 TO 2017. . THE COMPETITION INCLUDES ENTRIES FROM 26  NATIONS.   MOVING OVER TO OUR FRIENDS FROM THE NORTH -  LAWRENCE MCLACHLAN FROM NAIRN, ONTARIO IS  MAKIN' MAPLE!  THE SYRUP IS BOILED TO 242 DEGREES FARENHEINT -  THEN IT'S THICK ENOUGH TO PUT THROUGH A CANDY  MACHINE TO MAKE SUGAR - YUM!  BACK OVER IN A COLDER AREA - DIKE, IOWA RYAN PETERSEN IS SHOWING US IN A PICTURE WHAT  HIS WEEK WAS LIKE -  A RAIN - ICE - SLEET AND SNOW MIX.  SPEAKING OF SNOW, CALIFORNIA SNOW SURVEYORS  TREKKED THROUGH SNOW ONCE AGAIN IN THE SIERRA  NEVADA MOUNTAINS FOR A FRESH SNOW PACK  MEASUREMENT. . RECENT SNOWS HELPING THE WATER OUTLOOK FOR THE STATE. . THE SNOW MEASUREMENT AT THIS SITE NOW 39- PERCENT OF AVERAGE.  PRIOR TO THESE STORMS IT WAS SEVEN PERCENT OF  AVERAGE. ACCUMULATIONS OF SOMEWHERE BETWEEN EIGHT TO 10 INCHES OF  SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT. PRETTY MUCH THROUGHOUT THE RANGE AND  THAT IS A HUGE BOOST TO WHAT WE WERE WHAT WE HAD BEEN SEEING.  BACK LAST WEEK BEFORE THE STORMS HIT FOR0> THAT EIGHT-TO-TEN INCH WATER EQUIVALENT THAT  GEHRKE MENTIONED REFERS TO RUNOFF. THE  MOUNTAIN SNOWS HISTORICALLY PROVIDE  CALIFORNIANS WITH NEARLY A THIRD OF THEIR WATER  FOR THE WHOLE YEAR. . MARCH IS TYPICALLY THE LAST MONTH OF THE RAIN  AND SNOW SEASON IN THE STATE.

CLOSE
FROM ALL OF US AT U.S. FARM REPORT, -I'M TYNE MORGAN.  THANK YOU FOR WATCHING U-S FARM REPORT.  BE  SURE TO JOIN US RIGHT HERE AGAIN NEXT WEEK, AS  WE WORK TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION. HAVE A GREAT  WEEKEND, EVERYONE.  

Back to news


Comments

 
Spell Check

No comments have been posted to this News Article

Corn College TV Education Series

2014_Team_Shot_with_Logo

Get nearly 8 hours of educational video with Farm Journal's top agronomists. Produced in the field and neatly organized by topic, from spring prep to post-harvest. Order now!

Markets

Market Data provided by QTInfo.com
Brought to you by Beyer
Close