USFR Weekly Recap - March 24-25, 2018

March 24, 2018 03:30 AM
 
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TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
MARCH 24-25, 2018

HEADLINES

WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M TYNE MORGAN,  AND HERE'S WHAT'S IN STORE OVER THE NEXT 60  MINUTES.   THE TRUMP ADMINSTRATION HITS CHINA WITH MORE  TARIFFS. NOW CHINA SAYS IT'S NOT AFRAID OF A TRADE  WAR, WHILE PORK IS CAUGHT INT HE MIDDLE.  ANOTHER INTERST RATE HIKE COULD WEIGH HEAVILY  ON FARMERS.  < NOT ONLY IS IT A AN INTEREST RATES HIKE, BUT THE TOTAL COST FOR YOUR  FARMING OPERATION IS MUCH LARGER THAN IT WOULD HAVE BEEN EVEN 3  OR 4 YEARS AGO> WITH MORE HIKES IN STORE, NOW ONE LENDER HAS  GROWING CONCERNS THAT LOAN DELINQUENCIES  COULD BE ON THE RISE.  AS DAIRY PRICES STRUGGLE, NOW MORE THAN 80  FARMERS ARE LEFT WITHOUT A HOME FOR THEIR MILK.  <AS DIFFICULT OF A SITUATION THIS IS, I'M CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC WE'LL  COME UP WITH A PATH FORWARD> WE WALK IN THE SHOES OF A DAIRYMAN FIGHTING FOR  HIS FAMILY'S FARMING FUTURE, JUST LIKE SO MANY  OTHERS TODAY.  IN JOHN'S WORLD <BONELESS CHICKEN WINGS, YEAH RIGHT><U.S. FARM REPORT - BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE DEPENDABLE, LONG  LASTING, CHEVY SILVERADO.>

CHINA TARIFFS
NOW FOR THE NEWS, THE PRESIDENT ROLLING OUT A  PROPOSAL TO SLAP TARIFFS ON AS MUCH AS 60 BILLION  DOLLARS WORTH OF CHINESE IMPORTS. BU TTHE  CHINESE ALREADY FIRING BACK, SAYING THEY AREN'T  AFRAID OF A TRADE WAR. AND IT'S GOODS LIKE U-S  PORK CAUGHT IN THE LINE OF FIRE.  <IT'S GOING TO MAKE US A MUCH STRONGER, A MUCH RICHER  NATION. > SIGNING AN ORDER THURSDAY, THE PRESIDENT SAYS  THE TARIFFS ARE IN RESPONSE TO  CONCERNS THAT   CHINA STEALS U-S INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY. THE ADMINISTRATION BELIEVES CHINA FORCES  AMERICAN COMPANIES TO TRANSFER TECHNOLOGICAL  INSIGHT TO CHINESE FIRMS IN HOPES OF DOING  BUSINESS IN THE ASIAN COUNTRY. THE ADMINSITRATION SAYING THIS IS THE FIRST OF  MANY ACTIONS AGAINST CHINA. BUT A FORMAL WORLD  TRADE ORGANIATION COMPLAINT WILL ALSO BE FILED.  BUT CHINA ALREADY HIT BACK, INCLUDING SAYING IT  WILL PUT A 25 PERCENT TARIFF ON IMPORTED PORK  FROM THE U-STHE CHINESE MINISTRY OF FOREIGN  AFFAIRS SAYS IT DOESN'T WANT A TRADE WAR, BUT  ISN'T AFRAID OF HAVING ONE. AND THAT THE U-S  UNDERESTIMATES THE PRICE THE U-S MAY HAVE TO  PAY FOR WHAT IT CALLS RECKLESS BEHAVIORS.  NATIONAL PORK PRODUCERS RESPONDING, POINTING  OUT CHINA IS THE INDUSTRY'S NUMBER TWO BUYER,  WITH 1 POINT 1 BILLION DOLLARS OF PORK EXPORTED  LAST YEAR.  NPPC PRESIDENT  SAID QUOTE, NOONE WINS IN THESE  TIT FOR TAT TRADE SIPUTES, LEAST OF ALL THE  FARMERS AND THE CONSUMERS.  AS THE ADMINSTRATION DEBATES WHETHER TO PLACE  A SHORT-TERM CAP ON RIN VALUES, THE ISSUE MAY  END UP IN THE HANDS OF CONGRESS.

RFS DECISION TO CONGRESS
NEW REPORTS THIS WEEK INDICATE THE WHITE HOUSE  IS CONSIDERING PUNTING THE R-F-S DECIION TO  CONGRESS, SAYING LEGISLATORS ARE BETTER SUITED  TO SETTLE THE LONG-RUNNING DISPUTE BETWEEN THE  ETHANOL AND OIL INDUSTRIES.  THE RUB IS OVER THE PRICE OF BIOEFUL CREDTIS, OR  INS.  CLINTON GRIFFITHS SAT DOWN EXCLUSIVELY WITH THE  ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY ADMINSTRATOR  SCOTT PRUITT ABOUT WHAT LEGALLY THE AGENCY CAN  DO.  <BUT I THINK WHAT IS REALLY OUR FOCUS AT THIS POINT IS PROVIDING  CLARITY ON THE RV WAVER ON WHETHER THAT'S SOMETHING WE CAN DO  LEGALLY. WE'VE BEEN INVOLVED IN ABOUT A FOUR TO SIX MONTH  PROCESS AT LEAST. AND WHY DIDN'T THAT QUESTION IS A LEGAL QUESTION  AND A POLICY QUESTION. AND WHAT I MEAN BY THAT IS IT IS A MATTER  OF PREFERENCE IT'S A DISCRETION IT'S A MATTER OF WHETHER THE STATUTE  AUTHORIZES PERMITS THAT KIND OF DECISION. THERE ARE ARGUMENTS  ON BOTH SIDES. SO WE'RE TRYING TO EVALUATE THE MERITS AND  DEMERITS OF THOSE ARGUMENTS. THE LANGUAGE IN THE STATUTE TO  DETERMINE WHAT AUTHORITY DOES EXIST AT THE AGENCY ON GRANTING  THE ABILITY TO SELL 12 MONTHS A YEAR. SO PRACTICALLY YOU KNOW YOU  LOOK AT THAT YOU THINK IT ABSOLUTELY MAKES SENSE TO BUILD A CELL 12  MONTHS A YEAR. IT HELPS HELPS FOR THE INFRASTRUCTURE IT HELPS FOR SO  BUT AT THE SAME TIME IS IT AUTHORIZED BY THE STATUTE. SO THAT'S  SOMETHING WE'RE TRYING TO GET FIXED AND WORK AND REALLY GET AN  ANSWER TO IN THE NEAR TERM.0>

INTEREST RATES RAISE AGAIN
INTEREST RATES CONTINUE TO CLIMB HIGHER. THE FEDERAL RESRVE RAISING THE BENCHMARK  LENDING RATE BY A QUATER-POINT THIS WEEK.  HOWEVER, WITH THE ECONOMY IMPROVING, THERE ARE  SIGNALS STEEPER HIKES COULD BE IN STORE FOR  BOTH 2019 AND 2020.  NEW RESEARCH BY FARMER MAC REVELAS THAT RISING  INTEREST RATES CAN LEAD TO INCREASED RISKS FOR  THE FARMING SECTOR, AS RISING RATES PUTS  DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON FARMLAND VALUES.  FARMER MAC WARNS LOAN DELINQUENCY RATES,  WHICH HAVE REMAINED LOW, COULD INCREASE IF  INTERST RATES CONTINUE TO RISE.  THAT'S AS HIGHER ITNERST RATES WILL MEAN  FARMERS WILL HAVE TO PAY MORE FOR NEW OR  VARIABLE-RATE CREDIT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL  YEARS.  CURT COVINGTON OF FARMER MAC SAYS THAT COMES  AT A TIME WHEN WORKING CAPITAL ON FARMS IS  SHRINKING.  <BANKS ARE HAVING TO FUND A MUCH LARGER PORPORTION OF THEIR  OPERATIING NEEDS OF THESE FARMERS. SO WHEN WE SAW INTEREST  RATES GO UP 25 BASIS POINTS OR 50 BASIS POINTS, THAT TAKES IT IN  ONE CONTEXT. BUT THE OTHER CONTEXT IS, WHEN YOUR LIQUIDITY IS THAT  LOW, YOU'RE HAVIN TO BORROW MORE MOEY FROM TEH BANK, SO IN  ABSOLUTE DOLLARS, NOT ONLY IS IT A AN INTEREST RATES HIKE, BUT THE  TOTAL COST FOR YOUR FARMING OPERATION IS MUCH LARGER THAN IT WOULD  HAVE BEEN EVEN 3 OR 4 YEARS AGO. SO I ENCOURAGE FARMERS TO  THINK OF IT IN TERMS OF ABSOLUTE DOLLARS, BECASE THEY'RE HAVING TO  BORROW MORE MONEY AND LENDERS ARE LOOKING AT IT FROM TEH SAME  PERSPECTIVE> FARMER MAC SAYS DESPITE RISING RATES, THIS ISN'T A  REPEAT OF THE 1980S. THAT'S AS MANY FARMERS  APPEAR TO BE BETTER POSITIONED TO SERVICE THEIR  DEBT. BUT THEY POITN OUT WHEAT AND LIVESTOCK  OPERATIONS MAY HAVE THE MOST DIFFICULT TIME  REPAYING LOANS. 

ARMY CORPS RESPONSIBLE FOR FLOODING
A FEDERAL CLAIMS COURT JUDGE HAS RULED THE  ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS IS TO BLAME FOR RE- OCCURRING FLOODING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. THE JUDGE SAYS THE CORPS' POLICIES FAVORED  WILDLIFE PROTECTION OVER ECONOMIC PROTECTION. . THIS HAS BEEN A LONG-RUNNING DISPUTE OVER FLOOD  CONTROL DATING BACK TO 2007.  MORE THAN 300  FARMERS, LAND AND BUSINESS OWNERS FROM SIX  STATES ARE PART OF THE CLASS ACTION. . A SECOND LEGAL PHASE WILL DETERMINE IF PROPERTY  OWNERS SHOULD BE COMPENSATED. .

BAYER-MONSANTO MERGER
ON WEDNESDAY, EUROPEN COMMISSION GIVING   CONDITIONAL APPROVAL FOR BAYER TO BUY  MONSANTO. BAYER'S CEO CALLING IT A SIGNIFCANT MILESTONE. IBAYER ALREADY AGREED TO SELL OFF ITS U-S  BUSINESS AND PART OF ITS DIGITAL FARMING  PORTFOLIOTO B-A-S-F.  BUT NOW MONSANTO ALSO AGREEING TO DIVEST ITS  NEMASTRIKE TECHNOLOGY TO BASF. DESPITE RECENT ISSUES IN RECEIVING U-S  REGULATORY APPROVAL, BOTH BAYER AND MONSANTO  SAY THEY REMAIN CONFIDENT TEH DEAL WILL STILL  CLOSE THE SECOND QUARTER OF THIS YEAR.  THAT'S IT FOR HTE NEWS. WE NEED TO TAKE A QUICK BREAK BUT COMING UP ITS A CHECK OF WEATHER TO SEE IF HTE DROUGHT GREW ANY LAST WEEK.

WEATHER
IT'S TIME NOW TO CHECK WEATHER WITH  METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN. MIKE, SOME OF THE  PARCHED AREAS OF HTE COUNTRY RECEIVED A LITTLE  RAIN THIS WEEK. BUT NOW THAT WE'RE IN SPRING,  THOSE DRY AREAS JUST KEEP GETTING DRIER.  THANKS TYNE THERE IS NO DOUBT AS WE HEAD INTO THIS GROWING  SEASON THAT WE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT AREAS AROUND THE TEXAS  PANHANDLE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.  WHILE A LOT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  HAVE IMPROVED ON THE DROUGHT MONITOR OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF  MONTHS NOT SO MUCH THERE AND IT'S GOTTEN WORSE BACK INTO THE  FOUR CORNERS REGION AS WELL. SO LET'S GO BACK A MONTH AND SEE A  LOT MORE COLOR FARTHER TO THE EAST. WE WERE ALREADY SEEING THE  IMPROVEMENT THOUGH IN MANY PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. BUT OVER  THE LAST FOUR WEEKS WE'VE SEEN THAT IMPROVE EVEN MORE AS THIS  JUST GOES AWAY. EVEN THE MODERATE DROUGHT IN MANY PARTS OF THE  SOUTHEAST NOW STILL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA A LITTLE BIT ON THE DRY SIDE.  BUT OUR MAIN CONCERN IS GOING TO BE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND  NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS BACK INTO THE FOUR  CORNERS REGION. EVEN CALIFORNIA THESE LAST TWO OR THREE WEEKS  HAVE SEEN SO MUCH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS THAT YOU FOLKS  HAVE BEEN IMPROVING AS WELL. HERE'S THE OVERALL PATTERN WE'VE  SEEN THE TROUGH IN THE WEST TROUGH IN THE EAST FOR MOST OF THE  LAST MONTH OR SO WITH A RIDGE OCCASIONALLY IN THE CENTRAL PART OF  THE COUNTRY. BUT REALLY THE WARM AIR IS MAINLY STAYED IN SOUTH  CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHWEST AS WE HEAD THROUGH TIME.  WE'RE SEEING A LITTLE BIT OF A CHANGE HERE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF  THIS WEEK. SO ACTUALLY SHOW A CUT OFF IN THE SOUTHWEST. THAT  HASN'T HAPPENED VERY MUCH IN THIS PATTERN.  WE SEE A RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST WARMING THINGS UP FOR A CHANGE  AND THEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK AND INTO  THE WEEKEND IN TENNESSEE HOW WE'RE GOING A LITTLE BIT MORE  ZONAL HERE. NOW DO WE GO BACK TO A TROUGH IN THE WEST AND A  TROUGH IN THE EAST AGAIN. I'M NOT SURE BUT THERE'S AT LEAST SIGNS  THAT WE MIGHT SEE A TRANSITION PHASE HERE LATER THIS WEEK AND  INTO THIS COMING WEEKEND SOMETHING WE'LL BE WATCHING FOR YOU.  LET'S GO DAY BY DAY THEN ON MONDAY DOUBLE BARREL SYSTEM IN THE  PLAINS STATES WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN IN PLACES SOME  THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER SOUTH A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST  CORNER OF THIS AREA BY WEDNESDAY THEN THE MAIN SYSTEMS ARE  MOVING OFF THROUGH CANADA. ANOTHER WIND FARMS ON THE SOUTHERN  END OF THIS FRONT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN ONCE AGAIN IN THE  SOUTHERN PLAINS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY JUST A TOUCH OF SNOW  WITH THAT NEXT SYSTEM COMING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF  THE ROCKIES AND THIS SYSTEM KIND OF STALLS OUT WITH A STATIONARY  FRONT ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER BY FRIDAY. COLD FRONT ALONG THE  EAST COAST. AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN FAR  SOUTH TEXAS WITH A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN BUT MOST OF THE LOWER 48 BY  THE END OF THIS WEEK LOOKING DRY.  HERE'S MY 30 DAY OUTLOOK FOR TEMPERATURES I'M GOING BELOW  NORMAL FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES  THROUGH THE NORTHEAST MOST OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM THE FOUR  CORNER REGION THROUGH THE GULF COAST AREAS ABOVE NORMAL  TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 30 DAYS AS FAR AS  PRECIPITATION GOES THE FAR SOUTHEAST BELOW NORMAL SOUTHWEST  BELOW NORMAL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WESTERN DAKOTAS  NORTHWESTWARD AND ALSO FROM THE GREAT LAKES ALL THE WAY DOWN  THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TYNE. 

ROUNDTABLE 1
WELCOME BACK TO US FARM REPORT. MATT BENNETT BRIAN DOHERTY JOINING ME THIS WEEK THANK YOU SO MUCH. NO SHORTAGE OF THINGS TO TALK ABOUT. LET'S JUMP RIGHT INTO IT. THIS POSSIBLE TRADE WAR WITH TRUMP COMING OUT WITH PROPOSING NEW TARIFFS ON CHINESE GOODS STEEL AND ALUMINUM TARIFF WENT INTO EFFECT THIS WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME CHINA SAYING WE'RE NOT AFRAID OF A TRADE WAR HITTING HITTING PORT FIRST. HOW DETRIMENTAL WOULD A TRADE WAR BE FOR ALL OF OUR COMMODITIES MATT. WELL I DON'T THINK ANYBODY REALLY WINS IN WE'RE TALKING TRADE WARS YOU KNOW BOTTOM LINE. MOST PEOPLE SAY THAT IT DRIVES COSTS. IT'S GOING TO BE PRETTY TOUGH FOR PRODUCERS ALL AROUND THE BOARD. I GUESS ONE THING THAT WE KNOW AND WE'VE KNOWN FOR QUITE SOME TIME IS THEY'RE GOING TO THEY'RE GOING TO RETALIATE. YOU KNOW AS TRUMP HAS TALKED ABOUT HAVING TARIFFS. WHENEVER I LOOK AT THE SOYBEAN SITUATION OR LOOK AT THE SOYBEAN SITUATION I THINK THEY'RE GOING TO COME OUT AND SAY WE'RE GOING TO DO SOMETHING NEVER COMES AS SOYBEANS WHY ARE THEY GOING TO SAY THAT. ULTIMATELY I THINK IT'S PROBABLY GOING TO BE WE WILL SOURCE CHEAPER SOYBEANS BECAUSE THEY HAVE TO BUY BEANS OFF OF US. SO INITIALLY IF WE DO YOU KNOW WE'VE ALREADY SEEN IT HIT PORK WE SAW WHAT HAPPENED WITH HOG PRICES THIS WEEK. WE SAW IT TAKE A DEEP DIVE. IF WE SEE HEAR CHINA SAY EVEN FORGET THAT YOU KNOW THAT THEY ARE GOING TO PLACE A TARIFF ON SOYBEANS. DO WE SEE PRICES TANK. PROBABLY INITIALLY BUT CHINA CANNOT NOT BUY BEANS FROM THE UNITED STATES.AND SO IT MIGHT BE JUST RHETORIC. LET'S CALL IT A PLOY POTENTIALLY TO DRIVE PRICES DOWN TO SNEAK BACK IN AND BUY AT A CHEAPER LEVEL. THEY ARE IN A VERY TENUOUS SITUATION HERE. THEY NEED OUR PRODUCTS AND I DON'T THINK THEY WANT TO GET INTO THIS KIND OF A TARIFF WAR BUT THEY'RE FIRING BACK AND THEY DID SO VERY MINIMALLY. BUT YOU'VE GOT TO KIND OF BULLS OUT THERE FACING OFF AND THIS IS WHERE IT STARTS. BUT I WOULD ENCOURAGE PRODUCERS TO BE CAREFUL TO BE DEFENSIVE. SOYBEANS IN CASE IT DOES HAPPEN. IT IS TRYING TO BUY BEANS TODAY. CHINA HAS BEEN BUYING BEANS EVERY DAY. CHINA'S NOT NOT IN THE MARKET SO THEY MAY HOLD BACK A LITTLE BIT BUT THE MARKET BARELY FLINCHED TODAY. IT STARTED OUT WEAKER AND IT DIDN'T ROAR BACK BUT IT CLAWED BACK TODAY. UNLIKE THE STOCK MARKET THIS WEEK MET AT THE SAME TIME NEXT WEEK WE HAVE A BIG REPORT COMING OUT OF USDA THE PLANTING INTENTIONS REPORT. YOU KNOW WE ASSUME THAT WE'RE GOING TO SEE AN INCREASE IN SOYBEAN ACRES OVERALL. WHAT DO YOU THINK WE WILL SEE OVER 90 1 MILLION ACRES OF SOYBEANS. THAT'S A WONDERFUL QUESTION IF YOU BELIEVE A LOT OF THE SURVEY BASED EXPERTS IF YOU WILL THE SURVEYS THEY PUT OUT. YEAH I THINK THAT THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE THAT YOU COULD GO OVER 91. ME PERSONALLY I'VE ALWAYS BEEN IN THIS SITUATION WHERE I'VE PROBABLY BEEN IN A HALF MILLION TO A MILLION MORE ACRES OF BEANS THAN CORN. SOME OF THE AREAS THAT I'VE BEEN TO THIS YEAR SURPRISED ME AND SAID THAT THEY WERE GOING TO STICK WITH CORN OF COURSE. THESE ARE THE LIVESTOCK AREAS AREAS WHERE MAYBE BASIS IS JUST A LITTLE BIT BETTER. BUT BOTTOM LINE FOR ME I THINK THAT IF YOU DO GET OVER 91 I SURELY WANT TO BE DEFENSIVE AS BRIAN WAS SAYING I'VE GOT TO BE CAREFUL BECAUSE YOU COULD HAVE A DOUBLE WHAMMY EFFECT THIS WEEK. YOU KNOW WHENEVER WE'RE TALKING ABOUT CHINA AND THEN LARGEY GREIGE. SO I THINK THAT THERE'S TWO THINGS THAT TALK ABOUT CORN AND BEAN ACRES BUT AS FAR AS BEING NIGGERS GO I THINK OVER 91 IS A VERY VERY GOOD POSSIBILITY. BUT IT'S NOT LIKE WE HAVEN'T BEEN TALKING ABOUT THESE BIGGER SOYBEAN NUMBERS SO THE TRADE IS OBVIOUSLY AWARE THAT THAT POSSIBLY COULD HAPPEN. BUT WHAT WOULD THE KNEE JERK REACTION BE ON THE SLAVE MARKET IF WE ARE NORTH OF 91 MILLION. PROBABLY A LITTLE NEGATIVE BECAUSE THE MANAGED MONEY FUND MONEY WENT AGGRESSIVELY LONG BEING MARKET ATMOSPHERICALLY LONG HAIR IN THE LAST MONTH MOSTLY ON ISSUES IN ARGENTINA. SO THE MARKET BLOWS UP AND THERE'S PLENTY OF ROOM FOR IT TO CORRECT BACK. BUT WHEN YOU STEP BACK AND LOOK AT THE BIG FUNDAMENTAL PICTURE YOU KNOW THE WORLD IS USING SUPPLY. SO PULLBACKS OVER THE LAST 24 MONTHS NOT ONLY IN CORN SOY BEANS WHEAT BUT COMMODITIES HAVE PROVEN TO BE NOTHING MORE THAN BUY OPPORTUNITIES. LET'S TALK ABOUT THAT THOSE OUTSIDE MARKETS HOW HEAVILY INVESTED IN THE CORN IN THE SLABY MARKET ARE THEY TODAY. AND LET'S SAY THEY DECIDE TO CHANGE THEIR POSITION. HOW BIG OF A SWING CAN WE GET ON PRICE WELL YOU KNOW YOU BUY THIRTY FOUR AND 40000 CONTRACTS OF CORN. DECEMBER CORN ENDED UP MOVING ABOUT 30 35 CENTS. ON MONDAY WE DROPPED SEVEN CENTS. AND I THINK THAT WE SOLD AROUND 20000 CONTRACTS. THE PHONES DID. AND SO YOU KNOW OBVIOUSLY YOU LOSE 20 PERCENT OF THE RALLY RIGHT THERE ON ONLY 20000. BOTTOM LINE IS YOU'VE HAD THIS HUGE HEDGE PRESSURE ON THE WAY UP THERE'S BEEN WILLING SELLERS ALL THE WAY UP. IS THERE GOING TO BE WILLING BUYERS ALL THE WAY DOWN. OBVIOUSLY IT'S NOT TOO SOON THAT WE'VE SEEN ON THE WAY UP BRIAN. REAL QUICK CORN. YEAH I MEAN LIKE WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT SOME BULLISH RHETORIC HERE LOOKING AT PLENTY OF TEENAGE HITS TO REPORT WHAT ARE YOUR EXPECTATIONS. HOW MUCH TIME DO WE HAVE. LET'S KEEP THE BIG PICTURE IN PERSPECTIVE. THE WORLD IS USING MORE CORN THAN IT'S PRODUCING. AND THE U.S. IS LIKELY TO LOSE SOME CORN ACRES SO A DOWNSIDE POTENTIAL LIMITED FOR NOW. ALL RIGHT WE'LL TALK MUCH MORE ABOUT CORN AND MARKETS NOW GO ON AT WEB.COM TO CHECK THAT OUT BUT WE NEED TO TAKE A QUICK BREAK AND THEN WE'LL BE BACK WITH MORE U.S. FARM REPORT.

JOHN’S WORLD
IN THE MIDST OF MARCH MADNESS, SPORTS FANATICS  ARE HOSTING PARTIES ACROSS THE COUNTRY. AND ON  THEIR MENU MAY BE A TRENDY FOOD-- CHICKEN WINGS.  AND IT'S THAT POPULARITY GROWTH THAT'S THE TOPIC  OF THIS WEEK'S JOHN'S WORLD.  JOHN.  NOT BEING MUCH OF A SPORTS FAN ANYMORE, AND NO LONGER ALLOWED  TO DO GROCERY SHOPPING UNSUPERVISED, I MISSED OUT ON A RATHER  REMARKABLE DEVELOPMENT IN MEAT PRICES. WHILE I KNEW THAT  CHICKEN CONSUMPTION HAS RISEN STEADILY FOR DECADES EVEN AS IT  BLEW OTHER PROTEIN OUT OF THE WATER WITH ITS EXTREMELY LOW COST, I  HAD NO IDEA WHAT WAS HAPPENING TO INDIVIDUAL MARKETS FOR  CHICKEN PARTS. WHEN I LAST PAID ATTENTION THE MOST DESIRABLE CHUNK OF A CHICKEN  WAS THE BREAST MEAT, SO AT FAMILY DINNERS, YOU MADE SURE YOU  CALLED OUT EARLY FOR YOUR SHARE. THE WINGS WERE FOR LOSERS. FOR A  LONG TIME, AS YOU CAN SEE BY THIS CHART OF THE RATIO OF CHICKEN  WING PRICES TO BREAST MEAT, WINGS WERE A BARGAIN AT 30% OF  BREAST MEAT. THE AROUND THE TURN OF THE CENTURY THINGS CHANGED.  EXPORT DEMAND FOR LOW PRICED CHICKEN, ALONG WITH A LOT OF NEW  RESTAURANT FRANCHISES WITH "WINGS" IN THE NAME, TRIGGERED A  SURGE IN WING PRICES. LOOKING AT THE LAST FEW YEARS, WHOLE WINGS  HAVE BEEN SELLING ROUTINELY ABOVE BREAST MEAT, AND EVEN  TENDERLOINS. (BY THE WAY, OF YOU DON'T GET THE TITLE IT'S FROM AN OLD WENDY'S  COMMERCIAL.) I WAS NOT THE ONLY ONE SURPRISED BY THE DEMAND FOR WINGS.  CHICKEN BREEDERS WHO HAD BEEN WORKING FOR CHICKENS TO  MAXIMIZE WHITE MEAT, SUDDENLY FACED A CURIOUS PROBLEM. NO  MATTER HOW BIG YOU GREW THE CHICKEN, IT ONLY HAD TWO WINGS,  ALTHOUGH YOU GOTTA GIVE THE CHINESE CREDIT FOR CLAIMING  OTHERWISE IN A HOAX ABOUT KFC A FEW YEARS BACK.  ONE INDUSTRY ANSWER HAS BEEN THE BONELESS CHICKEN WINGS.  ONLY IT IS SUCH A BALD-FACED LIE THAT I FIND IT HILARIOUS. AS YOU CAN  READ FROM THIS QUOTE BY AN INDUSTRY ANALYST, ONE WAY TO COMBAT  SOARING WING PRICES IS TO MAGICALLY CONVERT NOW LOW COST BREAST  MEAT INTO SOMETHING THEY CALL WINGS. THE ONLY REASON THERE  HASN'T BEEN ANY OUTRAGE ABOUT THIS I THINK, IS UNLIKE THE ALMOND  MILK CONTROVERSY, THIS IS ALL WITHIN THE SAME INDUSTRY. THERE  AREN'T WING PRODUCERS AND BREAST PRODUCERS. AND FRANKLY  CONSUMERS DON'T SEEM TO GIVE A HOOT, ALTHOUGH BONELESS WINGS  HAVEN'T CAUGHT FIRE, SO TO SPEAK.  THERE IS NO DEEP MORAL TO THIS STORY OTHER THAN ANYBODY WHO  THINKS THEY CAN PREDICT FOOD FADS ARE KIDDING THEMSELVES. THE  SECRET TO MARKETING TO CONSUMERS TODAY MAY BE THE ABILITY TO  INTERPRET MARKET SIGNALS QUICKLY AND RESPOND JUST A LITTLE FASTER  THAN COMPETITORS. VERY TRUE. THANKS, JOHN. 

TEASE
UP NEXT, WE'RE HEADING OUT EAST FOR THIS WEEK'S  TRACTOR TALES. 

TRACTOR TALES
WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES FOLKS!  WE'VE FOUND A TRACTOR  ENTHUSIAST IN VIRGINIA WITH A GIBSON E IN HIS COLLECTION. STANLEY HULA JR. FOUND THIS ONE IN OHIO AND SHOWS IT OFF IN HIS  MUSEUM.  THERE WERE TWO VERSIONS OF THIS GIBSON MADE, ONE  WITH A WIDE FRONT AND ONE WITH A TRICYCLE.  STANLEY SAYS THIS  TRACTOR IS FUN TO DRIVE.  WE'RE STANDING NEXT TO A GIBSON E THAT WAS PURCHASED. THINK IT  WAS IN AVON OHIO PROBABLY ABOUT 12 YEARS AGO. I WENT OUT THERE  TO BUY A GIBSON. THE GENTLEMAN HAD THIS TRACTOR. AND AFTER  SOME CONVERSATION MONEY EXCHANGE HANDS AND I CAME HOME  WITH TWO. HE HAD ANOTHER ONE THAT I WOULD HAVE PREFERRED. AND I  WANT TO SAY IT WAS AN I BUT HE WOULD NOT PART WITH THAT. THE SC  WA S THE D AND THEN THEY HAD TO S S C OR SD. THEY WERE SMALL  TRACTORS AND THIS ONE WAS THE NEXT ONE UP IN THEIR LINEUP OF  HORSEPOWER. THIS IS AS I BOUGHT IT. THE GENTLEMAN HAD RESTORED  IT AND IT LOOKED FINE FOR THE MUSEUM HERE. SO I'VE LEFT IT JUST LIKE IT  IS. HAVEN'T DONE ANYTHING TO HAVE ANY AND I PUT A NEW BATTERY  AND IT WILL STAY HERE UNTIL EITHER THE MUSEUM IS SOLD OR THE DISC  WILL STAY HERE AS LONG AS IT NEEDS TO BE. HAVE NO PLANS OF SELLING  THE TRACTOR. IT RUNS FINE. IT'S A IT'S A WISCONSIN ENGINE AND IT RUNS  LIKE A WISCONSIN ENGINE MAKES IT THE OH HAY BALER NOISE AND IT  RUNS FINE ONCE IT GETS STARTED IF IT RUNS FINE. I RAN AROUND HERE  QUITE A BIT UP UNTIL A FEW YEARS AGO WHEN I STOPPED STARTING  THEM. THAT WILL BE THE ONLY THING THAT'S NOT NORMAL ON THE LIGHTS.  OTHERWISE IT'S AS IT CAME FROM THE AS IT WAS MANUFACTURED AND  THEY MADE TWO MODELS OF THIS PARTICULAR TRACTOR ONE WITH A WIDE  FRONT END AND THIS IS THE TRICYCAL. THANKS SO MUCH. 

TEASE
STILL TO COME IT'S A DIRE SITUATION FOR MANY  DAIRIES. WITH ALREADY STRUGGLING MILK SUPPLIERS,  SOME DAIRY FARMERS MAY BE FORCED TO EXIT THE  BUSINESS IF THEY DON'T FIND A NEW HOME FOR THEIR  MILK.  BUT IT'S MANY DAIRY PRODUCERS WHO KEEP FIGHTING  TO SURVIVE. WE HAVE THEIR STORY AFTER THE BREAK. 

FARM JOURNAL REPORT
NEW NUMEBRS OUT THIS WEEK SHOW MILK  PRODUCTION SEEMS UNSTOPPABLE. IN FEBRUARY,  TOTAL PRODUCTION GREW NEARLY 2 PERCENT YEAR  OVER YEAR. AND HTE NUMBER OF MILK COWS ON  FARMS GREW BY 45 THOUSAND.  IT'S THAT GROWTH THAT CAUSING PAIN ON DAIRY FARMS ACROSS THE COUNTRY, WITH SOME LEFT  WITHOUT A HOME TO SHIP THEIR MILK. BUT THAT'S NOT STOPPING THEM FROM FIGHTING FOR  THEIR FUTURE.  AND THAT'S THIS WEEK'S FARM JOURNAL REPORT.  FOR JOHNSON COUNTY, INDIANA FARMER JOE KELSAY...    <HOW'S THINGS GOING. EVERYTHING GOING WELL TODAY? YEAH> IT'S NOT JUST ANOTHER DAY...  HE'S CONTINUING TO PUMP MILK WHILE A CLOUD OF  UNCERTAINTY HANGS OVER HIS FARM.  <RIGHT NOW IT'S A BIT DIFFICULT TO BE A DAIRY FARMER> AND HIS JOB JUST BECAME EVEN MORE DIFFICULT.  HE  FOUND OUT IN FEBURARY FROM DEAN'S FOODS THAT  HE HAS 90 DAYS TO FIND A NEW HOME FOR HIS MILK.  <IT WAS A LITTLE SURPRISING TOO HAVE THIS MARKET AND THIS MARKET  ARTNER FOR S LONG AND THAT RELATIONSHIP TO LOOK TO BE ENDING> HE NOT ONLY RECEIVED A LETTER IN THE MAIL, BUT HAS  ALSO BEEN IN CONSTANT CONTACT WITH THE COMPANY  HE'S DONE BUSINESS WITH FOR MORE THAN 25 YEARS.  <OUR CONVERSAATIONS WITH  WITH BOTH FIELD STAFF AND TOP EADERSHIP  HAVE BEEN , THEY'RE VERY FRUSTRATED THAT THIS IT THE REALITY THAT  THEY'RE DEALING WITH> KELSAY IS ONE OF 27 PRODUCERS IN INDIANA AND ONE  OF MORE THAN 80 ACROSS THE COUNTRY WHO  RECEIVED THE SAME NOTICE FROM DEANS FOODS.  IN THE LETTER, DEAN'S  CALLING IT A DIFFICULT DECISION, BUT ONCE BASED ON TWO MAIN FACTORS.  ONE IS THE NEW WALMART MILK PROCESSING PLANT  COMING ONLINE NEAR FORT WAYNE IN MAY, AND   SECOND IS THE DAIRY MARKET FLOODED WITH TOO  MUCH MILK.  <" WE'R ECAUGHT AT A TIME WHEN THERE'S JUST TOO MUCH MILK. MORE  THAN WHAT THE MARKET CAN BEAR AT THIS MOMENT> <I EUQTE TO CORN HARVEST WITH THE ELEVATOR BEING FULL. THERE'S JUST  NOWHERE TO PUT THE MILK> MIKE NORTH OF COMMODITY RISK MANAGEMENT  GROUP SAYS PRODUCERS RAMPED UP PRODUCTION AS  OVERALL DEMAND DREW HIGHER.  <DEMAND GREW, ESPECIALLY AT THE WORLD LEVEL AND OUR PRODUCERS  MADE THE INVESTMENT, PUT THEIR BEST FOOT FORWARD, AND THEY REALLY  ROSE TO THE OCCASION AND THEY REALLY BROUGHT A LOT MORE MILK TO  THE TABLE…> WHILE OVERALL DEMAND CLIMBS, WITH APPETITES FOR  ITEMS LIKE CHEESE AND BUTTER GROWING,  CONSUMERS CONTINUE TO DRINK LESS MILK.. AND  THAT'S ADDING TO THE OVERSUPPLY PAIN.  DEANS FOODS TELLING FARM JOURNAL THAT MILK  CONSUMPTION HAS DROPPED 11 GALLONS PER PERSON  SINCE 1975 WHILE THE U-S AIRY INDUASTRY IS  PRODUCING 350 MILLION MORE GALLONS OF MILK EACH  YEAR. A COMBINATION THAT'S PROVING TO BE LETHAL  TO THE INDUSTRY IN THE FORM OF SUFFERING MILK  PRICES.  <A LOT OF PRODUCERS COST OF PRODUCTION IS EXCEEDING WHAT THEY'RE  GETTING IN THEIR MILK CHECK> NORTH SAYS AS OVERALL MILK PRICES STRUGGLE,  HIGHER MILK PRICES HINGE ON WHAT HAPPENS THIS  SPRING.  <IF WE CAN ELIMINATE SUPPLY THIS SPRING THAT WE BECOME SHORT INT  HAT SUPPLY, IN ORDER FOR OUR APPROACH O FALL, WE DO SET THE STAGE  FOR THAT TO HAPPEN> BUT ELIMINATING SUPPLY ISN'T AN EASY FIX.  IT TAKES TWO YEARS TO GET AN ANIMAL UP TO SIZE TO START MILKING  AND THEN ONCE YOU'RE ROLLING N THAT PROCESS, IT'S REALLY AHRD TO  TURN THE SPICKET AND ADJUST THAT SPICKET TO THE EXACT NEEDS OF THE  MARKET> THAT'S WHY WHEN THE LETTER FROM DEAN'S CAME IN  THE MAIL, HE WAS OVERCOME WITH CONCERN.  <THE COWS ARE MAKING MILK, WE'RE MILKING 3 TIMES A DAY, ANDN  HAULING A TRAILER LOAD EVERY THER DAY OUT OF OUR FARM SO WHERE  THAT HAS TO GO AND HOW WE CAN FIND A NEW MARKET CERTAINLY  RUSHES RIGHT IN> AS CONCERNS STILL WEIGH ON HIS SHOULDERS, HE  DOESN'T BLAME DEANS FOR THE TOUGH DECISION THEY  MADE.  <DEAN FOODS HAS BEEN A GREAT PARTNER OF OURS FOR 25 YEARS, AND  THEY HAVE BEEN NOTHING BUT PROFESSIONAL ABOUT THEIR APPROACH > IT'S THOSE BUSINESS DECISIONS HAVING AN IMPACT ON  FARMERS LIKE KELSAY. BUT NORTH SAYS IT'S NOT  HEALTHY TO CONDEMN DEANS OR WALMART.  <THIS ISN'T JUST A WALMART ISSUE, THIS ISN'T JUST A DEANS ISSUE, THIS  IS AN INDUSTRY WIDE EXPERIENCE WHERE PROCESSORS ARE  OVERWHELMED BY MILK SUPPLY> INSTEAD OF PLAYING THE BLAME GAME, KELSAY IS  COMMITTED, ON THE HUNT FOR A NEW MILK BUYER. HE  STARTED MAKING CALLS IMMEDIATELY...  <INITIAL RESPONSE ARE MILK SUPPLIES ARE ABUNDANT AT THE MOMENT.  WHILE HE'S RECEIVED SOME MAYBE'S...  <WE HAVE RECEIVED A HANDFUL OF NOS> KELSAY SAYS THAT'S NOT STOPPING HIM FROM  CONTINUING THE GOOD FIGHT. BUT  THE REALITY IS  SOME MAY NOT FIND A NEW HOME.  <IN SOME SITUATIONS, SOME DAIRY PRODUCERS ARE GOIG TO HAVE TO  SELL NOT ONLY THEIR HRED, BUT SELLING MACHINERY, EQUIPMENT, SELLING  REAL ESTATE AS WELL, JUST TO BE ABLE TO COVER THEIR DEBTS> AND AS DEBTS RISE, LANGE SAYS IT'S A HARSH REALITY  THAT'S SETTING IN.  <HOW MANY DOLLARS THEY'VE LOST, OR HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL DEBT  THEY'VE HAD TO TAKE ON AND ARE LOOKING A TTHOSE 2018 BUDGETS  AND SAYING, BOY, WE'RE RALLY GOING OT BE PUTTING OUR BUSINESS OR  OUR EQUITY IN A POSITION THAT WE DON'T FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH>  IT'S THAT DILEMMA KELSAY'S FACING TODAY.  <IF WE'RE NEGATIVE MARGIN AND WE HVE BEEN FOR A BIT, HWO MUCH  MORE EQUITY ARE WE WILLING TO INVEST TO WAIT FOR THESE PRICES TO  IMPROVE AND I THINK THAT'S A QUESTION OR FAMILY AND MANY OTHER  FAMILIES, THOSE DIFFICULT COVRSATIONS AROUND DINNER , THAT REALITY AS  THEY COME TO GRIPS WITH THESE CHANGES ARE REAL> HE SAYS WHETHER A FARMER IS FORCED OUT OF MILK  PRODUCTION, OR DOES SO VOLUNTARILY, LEAVING THE  BUSINESS ISN'T A MARK OF FAILURE.  < FAILURE TO ME IS YOU SEE THE WRITING ON THE WALL, IF YOU WILL, AND  THAT THIS ISN'T WORKING ANYMORE BUT YOU JUST HOPE THINGS ET BETTER,  WHILE I TRY TO BE OPTIMISTIC AS ANYONE ELSE, HOPE IS A POOR  BUSINESS PLAN> WHILE HOPE ISN'T KELSAY'S PLAN, HE REAMINS  DETERMINED A NEW MARKET WILL SURFACE. <AS DIFFICULT OF A SITUATION THIS IS, I'M CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC WE'LL  COME UP WITH A PATH FORWARD IT'S ORGANIZATIONS LIKE INDIANA DAIRY PRODUCERS  WHO SAY THEY'RE DOING EVERYTHING THEY CAN, TO  CONNECT PRODUCERS TO POTENTIAL BUYERS.  <I'M TALKING OT THE COOPS, THE BUYERS IN THE STATE, JUST TRYING TO  MAKE THE CONVERSATIONS HAPPEN> IT'S LAPORTE, INDIANA PRODUCER LUKE MINICH WHO  JUST WENT THROUGH A SIMILAR SITUATION AT THE END  OF LAST YEAR.  <WE WERE ALWAYS VERY POSITIVE THAT WE WOULD FIND A MARKET FOR  THE MILK> HE RECEIVED A LETTER FROM DEANS IN THE FALL THAT  THEY HAD 90 DAYS TO FIND A NEW HOME FOR THEIR  MILK,    <WE RECEIVED NOTICE IN OCOTBER AND WERE ABLE TO FIND A NEW  BUYER, A NEW COOP BASED IN OHIO> A SEARCH THAT TOOK NEARLY THE ENTIRE 90 DAYS.  BUT IT'S POSITIVITY THAT GOT THEIR FAMILY THROUGH.  <WE'VE FARMED FOR 6 GENERATIOS NOW. I THINK IT'S TE BEST WAY I  KNOW HOW TO RAISE A FAILY> AND IT'S THAT SAME POSITIVITY CARRYING THE  KELSAYS...  <"LONGTERM I'M REALLY BULISH U.S DAIRY, I THINK THAT OUR ABILITY TO  GROW FEED, AND TAKE CARE OF ANIMALS, PRODUCE AND THEN PROCESS  MILK AND THEN DISTRUBITE THAT MILK AND THOSE DAIRY PRODUCTS IS  SECOND TO NONE IN THE WORLD.> AS AN ETERNAL OPTIMIST, HE KNOWS HE ALSO HAS TO  BALANCE IT WITH BEING A REALIST.. AND THE REALITY  IT'S NOT ONLY HIS FAMILY, BUT EMPLOYEES, WHOSE  LIVELIHOOD PIVOTS ON TEH SUCCESS OF THIS DAIRY.  <IT'S REALLY A FAMILY, IT'S EXTENDED FAMILY. THE FOLKS THAT WORK ON  OUR FARM ARE ABSOLUTELY CRITICAL TO WHAT WE DO EVERY DAY> AND AS ONE DOOR CLOSES HE'S HOPEFUL ANOTHER DOOR WILL OPEN, AS HE  WORKS TO KEEP HIS FAMILY'S LEGACY ALIVE. WHILE KELSAY IS TRYING TO STAY POSITIVE, THE  REALITY IS SOME FARMERS WON'T BE ABLE TO STAY IN  BUSINESS. THE DIRE SITUATION IN DAIRY CAUGHT THE  ATTENTION OF THE NEW YORK TIMES. JUST THIS WEEK,  IT POSTED A STORY ABOUT HOW SUFFERING MILK  PRICES ARE FORCING SOME NEW YORK DAIRIES OUT OF  HTE BUSINESS. AND THAT'S LEADING  MORE FARMERS  TO NOT ONLY CONSIDER BUT COMMITT SUICIDE.  IF YOU'RE CONSIDERING TAKING YOUR OWN LIFE, WE  WANT TO REMIND PEOPLE THERE IS HELP. THE SUICIDE  PREVENTION HOTLINE IS ON THE SCREEN BELOW... IT  PROVIDES EMOTIONAL SUPPORT IN EMOTIONAL  DISTRESS 24 HOURS A DAY.  UP NEXT WE'LL TAKE A LOOK AT THE STRUGGLING CORN PRICES AFTER THE BREAK.

ROUNDTABLE 2
ALL RIGHT WELCOME BACK. BRIAN DOHERTY AND MATT BENNETT JOIN US AGAIN. JUST HAD THAT FARM JOURNAL REPORT ABOUT THE DIRE SITUATION IN DAIRY. YOU KNOW OTHER THAN CULLING SOME OF THE COWS AND GETTING RID OF SOME OF THE COWS THAT WE HAD OUT THERE PRODUCING LESS MILK WHAT ELSE COULD HAPPEN WORLDWIDE TO DRIVE FUEL PRICES HIGHER. YOU KNOW WHAT MOVES MILK PRICES WILL TYPICALLY TWO THINGS. LESS SUPPLY OF MILK OR HIGHER FEED COSTS. FEED IS PRETTY CHEAP RIGHT NOW. IF WE GET WEATHER THIS SUMMER 70 PERCENT OF THE WORLD'S CORN CROP IS PRODUCED IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. SO THINK WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF WE TALKED ABOUT A DRAWDOWN IN CORN PRODUCTION UNLIKE THE LAST FIVE YEARS CORN PRICES BEGIN THE RALLY YOU'RE GOING TO SEE SOME VERY QUICK LIQUIDATION OF COWS. ALSO BEEF PRICES HIGHER THAN WHERE THEY WERE IN 2009. MAKE THAT DECISION EASIER. HOW LIKELY IS IT THAT WE WILL GET SIGNIFICANT HIGHER CORN PRICES THIS YEAR. WELL YOU KNOW WHENEVER I LOOK AT WORLD STOCKS FOR INSTANCE AND YOU KNOW SOME OF THE ESTIMATES RIGHT NOW ARE THAT BRAZIL USDA COULD BE 10 MILLION METRIC TON TOO HIGH ON THE BRAZIL CORN CROP. I DON'T KNOW IF I'M QUITE THERE YET BUT IF I WERE AS FAR AS ARGENTINA MAYBE BEING 2 OR 3 MILLION METRIC TON TO HIGHS STILL. WE'RE GOING TO END UP DRAWING DOWN WORLD STOCKS YEAR ON YEAR 20 PERCENT FOR US AND THAT IS A HUGE AMOUNT DEFINITELY USING A LOT OF CORN.IF YOU WOULD HAVE TOLD PEOPLE A FEW MONTHS AGO WE'RE GONNA HAVE A 176 6 ON CORN YIELD AND WE'RE STILL GOING TO BE CLOSER TO 2 BILLION THAN 2.5 BILLION RAND CARRY OUT. THEY WOULD HAVE SAID YOU'RE CRAZY. AND SO AS FAR AS CORN GOES WE HAVE ANY WEATHER PROBLEMS THIS YEAR AND YOU DO HAVE 89 MILLION ACRES OR ANYTHING SUB 90 IN MY OPINION. YOU'RE LOOKING AT A PRETTY EXCITING MARKET THIS SUMMER. REAL QUICK FEED USERS CATTLE YOU KNOW CASH MARKETS TELL US SOMETHING DIFFERENT THAN THE FUTURES MARKET RIGHT NOW. WHAT IS IT TELLING US. WELL AS FAR AS THE CATTLE I MEAN YOU YOU'RE SEEING AT LEAST TEN DOLLARS HIGHER AT THE SELBORNE THAN WHAT YOU'RE SEEING WHAT YOU'RE SEEING ON THE ON THE MERC AND SO BOTTOM LINE THE DEMAND FRONT IS VERY GOOD BUT YOU STILL GOT THIS HUGE INVERTED MARKET. IT'S A VERY SCARY PROPOSITION FOR THE FOR THE CATTLE PRODUCERS. WHAT ABOUT PORK PRICES. I MEAN WE'VE SEEN PORK PRICES PLUMMET AFTER THIS NEWS THIS TAROF NEWS OUT OF CHINA. YOU KNOW IT'S JUST A PROPOSAL KIND OF PERCEPTION VERSUS REALITY RIGHT NOW WITH THAT MARKET BECAUSE WE DON'T KNOW ACTUALLY WHAT CHINA IS GOING TO DO. BUT AT THE SAME TIME WE HAVE STRUGGLING PORK PRICES. WE DO. AND WE'VE GOT A SUPPLY ISSUE BEATH. LET'S GO BACK TO THAT AS A COMPETITOR TO PORK THE SECOND QUARTER SHOULD SEE RECORD BEEF SUPPLIES AND PORK SLAUGHTER NUMBERS OVER 440000 CONSISTENTLY DAY IN AND DAY OUT. SO YOU'VE GOT A SUPPLY ISSUE THERE. NOW THIS TARIFF ISSUE AND THEN A COLD STORAGE REPORT. SO A LOT OF WHAMMIES ON PORK BUT NOT A LOT OF DOWNSIDE POTENTIAL BECAUSE WE'RE ALREADY RELATIVELY CHEAP. SO DEMAND IS LIKELY CYCLED BACK AND THE DOLLAR'S BEEN ON THE DEFENSIVE.SO DEFENSIVE FOR SURE. BIG SUPPLIES BUT PRICES PROBABLY ALREADY GET MOST IF NOT ALL OF IT FACTORED IN. ALL RIGHT HOPEFULLY WE'LL GET SOME MORE CLARITY ON THESE TARIFFS AROUND CHINA BUT FROM FROM BOTH SIDES OF THE AISLE BUT WHAT DO YOU WANT. WHAT ADVICE DO YOU HAVE PRODUCERS FOR PRODUCERS NEXT WEEK AS WE HAVE A BIG REPORT COMING OUT. WELL YOU KNOW IF I HAVEN'T DONE A WHOLE LOT ON NEW CROSSBREEDS YOU AT LEAST WANT TO HAVE SOME PROTECTION IN PLACE. I THINK THAT IT MAKES GOOD SENSE. MOST PRODUCERS THAT WE WORK WITH AND I'M SURE THE BRINED WORKS WITH CAN MAKE PRETTY GOOD MONEY ABOVE TEN DOLLAR IN NOVEMBER BEANS MIGHT NOT BE EXACTLY WHAT THEY WANT BUT IT SURE AS HECK WOULD BEAT SOME OF THE PRICE WE'VE SEEN LATELY. ALL RIGHT BRIAN YOUR ADVICE FOR THIS NEXT WEEK. SAME THING WITH MAD ON BEANS BEANS HAVE BEEN OFFERING AN OPPORTUNITY OF QUITE SOME TIME THE HANDWRITING ON THE WALL. NOW THERE IS A DRAWDOWN IN ARGENTINA AND THAT'S STILL A WILDCARD AS TO WHAT THAT NUMBER WILL ACTUALLY BE. BUT YOU GOT THIS TARIFF ISSUE SO I WOULD GO INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A DEFENSIVE POSTURE PROBABLY PUT OPTIONS IN COMBINATION WITH SOME FORWARD CONTRACTING ON BEANS AND CORN AND PROBABLY THAT MARKET ALONE RIGHT NOW. BUT WE COULD HAVE SOME FIREWORKS NEXT WEEK. ABSOLUTELY. ALWAYS CAN. IT'S JUST AN ESTIMATE. SO THINGS WILL CHANGE QUICKLY AFTER THAT. BUT RIGHT NOW I DON'T THINK CORN IS IN FAVOR OF BUYING ACRES FROM BEANS SO I WOULD BE MORE DEFENSIVE BEINGS BIGGER WORLD STOCKS U.S. SUMMER BEANS THAN RELATIVE TO CORN TOO.ALL RIGHT THANK YOU BOTH FOR BEING HERE. WE APPRECIATE IT. REMEMBER CHECK OUT AGWEB.COM FOR MARKETS NOW A MUCH LARGER DISCUSSION ON CORN PRICES RIGHT NOW ON A MUCH MORE POSITIVE DISCUSSION ON CORN PRICES. ALL RIGHT STAY WITH US WE HAVE MUCH MORE ON THIS FARM REPORT WHEN WE COME BACK.

BAXTER BLACK
BAXTER BLACK'S PREVIOUS COMMENTARY ON LEAVING  THE RANCH SET OFF A RANGE OF EMOTIONS FROM  VIEWERS, WITH SOME WORRIED THAT MEANT HE  WOULD NO LONGER BE A PART OF THIS PROGRAM.  I'M HAPPY TO REPORT HE'S NOT AND WE HOPE BAXTER  CONTINUES TO BE A MAINSTAY ON OUR SHOW. SO WITH THAT, LET'S HEAD OUT WEST TO CHECK IN  WITH BAXTER BLACK.  MULES ARE PECULIAR. FIRST THEY'RE NOT REAL. THEY'RE THE EQUIVALENT OF A CATERPILLAR BODY ON A VOLKSWAGEN CHASSIS WITH CADILLAC SUSPENSION CUMMINS DIESEL AND LAWNMOWER WHEELS. NOT TO MENTION TWO DISH ANTENNA AND A REAR WINDSHIELD WIPER MULES SEEM TO HAVE AN INTELLIGENCE THAT HORSES DO NOT. THIS IS DEMONSTRATED BY THEIR TRAITS OF NOT OVER EATING AND NOT PANICKING IN A TANGLE. AND THEY DO POOP IN DESIGNATED AREAS. YES THEY DO BUT MULES UNLIKE HORSES ALSO PLAY BY THE RULES. OFTEN THEIR OWN RULES BUT THEY ALWAYS COLOR WITHIN THE LINES DURING HURRICANE FLOYD. NORTH CAROLINA WAS HIT HARD DALE AND JIM HAD THEIR PROPERTY INUNDATED. THEY LED THEIR FOUR MULES OUT TO THE ROAD IN NEED DEEP WATER TOWARD SAFETY WHILE THE MULES BALKED AT THE PROPERTY LINE. DALE'S HOUSE RULES HAD FORBIDDEN THE MULES TO CROSS THAT IMAGINARY OBSTACLE SO THEY FREED THE MULES THINKING THAT WHEN THE WATER GOT HIGH ENOUGH THEY'D FIND A WAY TO GET OUT. THE NEXT MORNING THE MULES WERE BACK IN THE BARN AND THE WATER WAS UP TO THEIR BACKS. JIM HALTERED TO BOSS MULE AND TIED HIM TO THE 16 FOOT BOAT WITH AN OUTBOARD MOTOR. THEY PUT IT OUT TOWARDS THE ROAD WELL, THE MULE CAME RIGHT ALONG UNTIL HE REACHED THE EDGE OF THE PROPERTY WHERE HE DUG IN ALL FOUR FEET AND STOPPED THE PARADE. JIM WAS IN THAT BOAT TWISTING THE THROTTLE AND FISHTAIL ON IN THIS BOAT AND GOING NO WHERE. BUT THEN SURELY BUT STEADILY THE BOSS MULE BACKED CLEAR TO THE BARN TOWING THE SPUTTERING SHIP LIKE HE WAS REELING IN A 400 POUND CATFISH. BUT MULES DO LIKE TO HAVE FUN JACKSON HOLE JERRY HAD A BIG MULE. HE LIKED TO STAND IN THE BACK OF HIS LITTLE TWO HORSE TRAILER. JERRY CAME HOME ONE DAY TO FIND A TRAILER AT THE BOTTOM OF THE SLOPE BELOW THE HOUSE WHO MOVED THE TRAILER HOLLERED HIS WIFE SAID NOT ME. SO JERRY HOOKED IT UP AND PULLED THE TRAILER BACK TO THE TOP AND THEN HE UNHOOKED AND STARTED FOR THE HOUSE AND HE LOOKED BACK TO FIND HIS BIG MULE. CLOMPING UP INTO THE TRAILER AND THE TONGUE LIFTED OFF THE GROUND AND DOWN THE HILL HE WENT. GARY THOUGHT HE HEARD HIM LAUGHING. THIS IS BAXTER BLACK FROM OUT THERE.THANKS, BAXTER. YOU CAN HEAR MORE FROM BAXTER

BY VISITING BAXTER BLACK DOT COM. 

CUSTOMER SUPPORT
THE TRUMP ADMINSTRATION TAKING AN EVEN TOUGHER  TARIFF STANCE THIS WEEK.   JOHN HAD A NICE BREAKDOWN OF THE STEEL INDUSTRY  LAST WEEK.  BUT IT'S A BROADER DISCUSSION ON TRADE ON TAP  FOR CUSTOMER SUPPORT THIS WEEK. JOHN.  J FRITZ ECHOES A COMMENT I HAVE HEARD OCCASIONALLY DURING THE  DEBATE OVER TRADE AGREEMENTS: "YOU HIGHLIGHTED BEN SASSE'S COMMENTARY ON THE NAFTA TALKS.  NOTING THAT YOU SIDED WITH SEN. SASSE I WOULD REMIND YOU THAT  VERY FEW AGREEMENTS EVEN THOSE BETWEEN LANDLORDS AND RENTERS  ARE NOT RENEGOTIATED PERIODICALLY IF NOT ANNUALLY.   AS THIS AGREEMENT WAS RATIFIED IN 1994 I THINK IT'S PRUDENT TO  LOOK AT CHANGING SOME PROVISIONS IN THE AGREEMENT AS THINGS DO  CHANGE OVER TIME AND YOU ARE ASSUMING THAT THE ORIGINAL  AGREEMENT WAS THE PERFECT SOLUTION TO THE ISSUES SEEN BETWEEN  THE TRADING PARTNERS. NOT SAYING THAT ANYTHING WILL OR SHOULD BE  CHANGED BUT I SEE NO PROBLEM WITH AT LEAST TALKING ABOUT IT. I AM  ASSUMING THE CURRENT METHOD OF BRINGING THE PLAYERS TO THE TABLE  WILL BE EFFECTIVE IN STARTING THE TALKS." THANKS FOR WRITING. THERE ARE SEVERAL PROBLEMS WITH THIS  APPROACH, AS BUSINESSES WHO TRADE INTERNATIONALLY WILL POINT OUT.  THE FIRST IS NATIONS ARE NOT PEOPLE. COMPARING A RENT AGREEMENT  WITH NAFTA IS LIKE INAPT ANALOGY. TRADE AGREEMENTS MUST DEAL  WITH THOUSANDS OF TOPICS IN PRECISE DETAIL, BALANCE THE INTERESTS  OF THOUSANDS OF BUSINESSES. A RENTAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN TWO  PEOPLE IS ABOUT ONE THING. ANYONE WHO HAS EVER NEGOTIATED A  MERGER BETWEEN TWO CHURCHES OR A CONSOLIDATION BETWEEN TWO  SCHOOLS CAN TELL YOU HOW FAST THE COMPLEXITY MOUNTS UP. AND  WHEN YOU DO STRIKE A DEAL, IT WILL BE IMPERFECT, BUT FULFILLING THE  PROMISE IS IMPERATIVE IF YOU EVER WANT TO DO ANOTHER. SECOND,  PEOPLE HAVE MILLIONS OF OTHER TRADE PARTNERS, WHILE THERE IS ONLY  ONE EU OR CHINA FOR US TO TRADE WITH. SCRAPPING ONE DEAL TO LOOK  FOR ANOTHER NEIGHBOR IS NOT AN OPTION, UNLIKE MOVING TO ANOTHER  APARTMENT.  THE BIGGEST PROBLEM WITH AGREEMENT LIFETIMES OR SUNSET  CLAUSES, HOWEVER, IS THE UNCERTAINTY UNDERMINES CUSTOMER  CONFIDENCE. CORN MILLERS IN MEXICO HAVE TOLD US FARMERS THEY  ARE SCRAPPING PLANS FOR NEW IMPORT FACILITIES THAT WOULD MEAN  MORE US EXPORTS SINCE INVESTMENTS THAT PAY OFF OVER DECADES  ARE TOO RISKY IF THEY CAN'T DEPEND ON NAFTA. IN FACT, THAT SAME  LONG TERM UNCERTAINTY IS A MAJOR REASON WHY FARMERS PAY HIGH  PRICES FOR LAND. IT'S HARD GROW AN OPERATION ON YEAR-TO-YEAR  PROMISES. CONSTANTLY THREATENING TO END A TRADE AGREEMENT DEFINES THE US  AS UNRELIABLE, AND COMPETITORS LIKE CHINA ARE TAKING ADVANTAGE  OF OUR FICKLE APPROACH TO KEEPING OUR WORD. THEY ARE BUILDING  INFRASTRUCTURE THAT WILL LAST FOR DECADES FOR THEIR TRADE PARTNERS.  WHO WOULD YOU CHOSE TO DEAL WITH? TRADE IS EXTREMELY HARD TO NEGOTIATE, AND WHEN AN AGREEMENT IS  SIGNED IT IS IMPERATIVE TO STAND BY IT. YOU CAN MAKE NEW ONES,  BUT REPEATEDLY INTIMIDATING TRADE PARTNERS WITH CANCELLATION  MEANS LOSING TRADE PARTNERS. I DON'T BLAME THEM. THANKS, JOHN. SEND YOUR QUESTIONS AND  COMMENTS TO JOHN AT MAILBAG AT U-S FARM REPORT  DOT COM.  UP NEXT, PLANTERS ARE STARTING TO ROLL. AND WE  HAVE PICTURES AS PROOF AFTER THE BREAK. 

FROM THE FARM
WELCOME BACK. SOME PLANTING PHOTOS GIDDINESS IN THE SPRING  SPIRIT. BRANDON SAID IT WAS A GOOD WEEKS START PLANTING CORN IN  NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. SPRING BRINGS OUT OPTIMISM AND SOME MILK  WHERE IT'S WARMED UP. AND HE SAYS HE'S JUST THANKFUL FOR THE  OPPORTUNITY TO START ANOTHER YEAR. I LIKE HIS MEN TOO. THAT'S RIGHT.  THEY'RE ALSO STARTING TO ROLL IN OKLAHOMA. ZACH SAYS PLANTING IS  UNDERWAY FOR THIS YEAR AND HE COULDN'T ASK FOR BETTER CONDITIONS.  AND TREVOR SMITH SAYS THE JOURNEY OF A THOUSAND MILES BEGINS  WITH ONE STEP. AND TODAY THEY STARTED WALKING. NOW THIS IS HOW  THEY PLANT THE FOUR HUNDRED THOUSAND WATERMELON PLANTS ON  THEIR FARM. ONE PLANT AT A TIME ALL BY HAND. I HAVE A WHOLE NEW  APPRECIATION FOR EATING WARM WATERMELON. SOUNDS LIKE MY HOME  IF YOU HAVE A PICTURE OR A VIDEO YOU WOULD LIKE TO SEND IN. YOU  CAN DO THAT TO THE ADDRESS ON THE SCREEN.

CLOSE
AND FROM ALL OF US THE  U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M MIKE HOFFMAN AND I'M TYNE  MORGAN THANK YOU FOR WATCHING. BE SURE TO JOIN US AGAIN RIGHT  HERE NEXT WEEK AS WE WORK TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION. HAVE A  GREAT WEEKEND EVERYONE.  

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