USFR Weekly Recap - March 25-26, 2017

March 25, 2017 03:30 AM
 
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TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
MARCH 25-26, 2017


HEADLINES
WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M TYNE MORGAN,  AND HERE'S WHAT WE'RE WORKING ON FOR YOU OVER  THE NEXT 60 MINUTES. A SCANDAL IN BRAZIL'S BEEF INDUSTRY IS SHAKING UP  THE MARKETS.  AS TEH ACREAGE DEBATE PLAYS OUT, FARMERS ARE  FACED WITH A TOUGH DECISION... <"YOU CAN'T SELL CORN RIGHT NOW NEW CROP AT A BREAKEVEN,> SO COULD SOYBEANS TOP CORN ACRES? THAT'S OUR  FARM JOURNAL REPORT. COTTON IS KING IN MISSISSIPPI THIS YEAR AND IT'S  HELPING TO MOVE MAHCINES.... < THE LAST TWO OF THREE MONTHS HERE, VALUES HAVE BEEN PRETTY  STRONG,> WE'RE ON TEH ROAD WITH MACHINERY PETE TO  MISSISSIPPI.  AND IN JOHN'S WORLD.. <>

BRAZIL MEAT SCANDAL
NOW FOR THE NEWS THAT MOVED THE MARKETS THIS  WEEK...A SCANDAL IN THE MEAT INDUSTRY OF BRAZIL  RIPPLING THROUGH THE GLOBE. THE U.S. CATTLE COMPLEX TRADING UP TO FRESH 1- YEAR HIGHS AS BRAZILIAN POLICE CONDUCT RAIDS ON  MEAT COMPANIES ACCUSED OF BRIBING INSPECTORS  AND POLITICIANS TO OVERLOOK UNSANITARY  PRACTICES.  FEDERAL POLICE ISSUED 38 ARREST WARRANTS  INVOLVING THE GIANT MEATPACKERS-- JBS AND BRF IN  A BLOW TO BRAZIL'S REPUTATION AS ONE OF THE  WORLD'S LEADING MEAT PRODUCERS. MULTIPLE COUNTRIES NOW IMPOSING RESTRICTIONS  ON BEEF IMPORTS FROM BRAZIL. <THE USDA HAS STARTED TESTING ALL SHIPMENT SOF RA WBEEF ANMD RADY TO EAT PRODUCTS TO EAT FROM BRAZIL FOR PATHOGENS, BUT THERE'S LITTLE SUGGEST AMERICAN CONSUMERS SHOUL DBE WORRIED,THAT'S BECAUSE WE DON'T IMPORTANT VERY MUCH BEEF FROM BRAZIL. LAS TYEAR THE U-S ANNOUNCED IT WOULD START ACCEPTING FRESH AND FROZEN BEEF IMPORTS FROM BRAZIL. `>HENDERSON SAYS IN 2016 THE U.S. TOOK IN A LITTLE  MORE THAN 1 MILLION POUNDS OF FRESH AND FROZEN  BEEF FROM BRAZIL...AND IT CAME MOSTLY AS  HAMBURGER.  FOR PERSPECTIVE HE SAYS THAT'S ABOUT 4.4 MILLION  QUARTER POUNDERS. NOT EVEN ENOUGH TO SUPPLY MCDONALDS WORLD  WIDE FOR A DAY. 

FEBRUARY MILK PRODUCTION
ON THE DAIRY SIDE OF THE AISLE, MILK PRODUCTION IN  THE 23 MAJOR STATES DURING FEBRUARY TOTALED  15.7 BILLION POUNDS, UP 2.5 PERCENT OVER LAST  YEAR. THE USDA SAYS PRODUCTION PER COW AVERAGED JUST OVER 18-HUNDRED (1,801) POUNDS FOR  FEBRUARY, MORE THAN 30 POUNDS BELOW FEBRUARY  2016. AND THE NUMBER OF MILK COWS ON FARMS  CONTINUES TO RISE UP MORE THAN 66,000 HEAD ABOVE  A YEAR AGO.  COMBINED WITH THE GREATER PRODUCTION  EFFICIENCIES ON THE FARM AND GROWING MILK PER  COW WE'RE SEEING A LOT OF MILK AROUND THE  COUNTRY LOOKING FOR A HOME IT'S GOING INTO VATS  IT'S GOING INTO CHURNS IT'S GOING INTO DRYERS AND  AS A RESULT PRODUCTION CAPACITIES ARE UP AND  INVENTORIES HAVE BEEN GROWING SO WE ARE IN THIS  CRUX WHERE THE REST OF THE WORLD IS OVER THE  LAST FEW MONTHS BEEN BACKING OFF OF MILK  PRODUCTION BUT THINGS ARE STARTING TO COME  BACK STRONGER NEW ZEALAND IS NOT GOING TO BE  DOWN AS MUCH AS INITIALLY ANTICIPATED EUROPE IS  BRINGING PRODUCTION BACK ONLINE THEIR  PRODUCTION REDUCTION PROGRAM HAS COME TO AN  END COWS ARE SHOWING UP WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO  DEAL WITH A LOT OF INVENTORY.> 0

COLD STORAGE FOR HOGS
IN THE HOG MARKET, COLD STORAGE NUMBERS SHOW  STOCKS AT THE END OF FEBRUARY HIGHER THAN WHAT  TRADE EXPECTED. THANKFULLY EXPORTS CONTINUE TO BE STRONG. CHINA HAS BEEN MOVING THEIR SWINE HERD AWAY  FROM CITIES AND WATERWAYS WHICH IS CURBING PORK PRODUCTION. THE CHINESE HOG HERD IS HEADED FOR ITS LOWEST  LEVEL IN 20 YEARS.

DROUGHT MONITOR
LOOKING AT THIS WEEK'S DROUGHT MONITOR,  POCKETS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY.  AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MISSOURI  AND UP THE EAST COAST SEEING EXPANDING DROUGHT  AND DRYNESS. ROUGHLY A THIRD OF THE COUNTRY IS FACING SOME  SORT OF DROUGHT AND DRYNESS. ABOUT WHAT IT WAS LAST YEAR HOWEVER--THE AREA  OF CONCERN HAS SHIFTED FROM THE WEST COAST. ILLINOIS FOR INSTANCE, HALF THE STATE IS NOW DRY  OR IN EARLY STAGES OF DROUGHT. LAST YEAR IT WAS ZERO PERCENT AT THIS TIME. BUT THAT DRY WEATHER REALLY EATING INTO THE  WHEAT BELT.  97 PERCENT OF CANASAS IS UNDER DROUGHT, AND IN  OKLAHOMA, NEARLY 93 PERCENT OF HTE STATE IS  CONSUMED BY DRYNESS. 

WEATHER
METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH  WEATHER... MIKE FOLKS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE  COUNTRY ARE LOOKING FOR RAIN. HOW DO OUR  CHANCES LOOK THIS WEEK? CHANCES FOR GETTING RAIN IN MUCH OF THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY IN  YOU CONCEDE THE REASON THEY'RE CONCERNED THIS AREA 'S BEEN  EXPANDING BOTH NORTHWARD AND SOUTHWARD THAT STARTED OVER  OKLAHOMA.   I DON'T THINK THE EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT AREAS EXPANDED  OVER THE LAST MONTH OR SO BUT THE DRIER AREAS HAVE EXPANDED AND  THAT COULD LEAD TO DROUGHT DOWN THE ROAD WHICH IS WHAT WE'RE  CONCERNED. WE'RE STILL CONCERNED WITH THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL SO THIS GOES BACK OVER A MONTH AGAIN SEE HOW THE AREA OF THAT AM  THEIR  YELLOWISH TAN NOT NEARLY AS LARGE AS IT IS NOW ON THE CURRENT ONE  AND THAT SO WHAT WE AFTER  THAT WATCHES THIS EXPANDING AREA OF DRYNESS STARTS TO HAPPEN  HERE 'S WHAT WE LOOK AT THEM AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS WEEK ON  MONDAY AND THE STORM WILL HAVE COME THROUGH THE WESTERN  PLAINS ON SUN 'S SUNDAY BUT DAY YOU CAN SEE THE SHOWERS UP  AND DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON INTO NEW ENGLAND AS WELL WARM IN THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER  STORM SYSTEM COMING IN OUT WEST WAS SOME RAIN AND MOUNTAIN  SNOWS BY WEDNESDAY THEN THAT FIRST STORM MOVING THROUGH NEW  ENGLAND WAS SOME LINGERING RAIN SNOW IN EASTERN CANADA.   AND THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNER REGION ALONG  WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY. LOOKS  LIKE  A DOUBLE BARREL SYSTEM MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE  COUNTRY   AND SO THAT WILL BE BRINGING IN SOME AREAS OF RAIN AND  THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL UP AND DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND  BACK INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ROCKY  MOUNTAINS WILL BE BACK IN OUR NEXT HALF HOUR WITH A LONGER RANGE  FORECAST

TEASE
THANKS MIKE. WE TALKED A LOT ABOUT LIVESTOCK IN THE NEWS,  WE'LL GET INTO THE GRAINS AND THE BIG PICTURE  MARKET ACTION WHEN US FARM REPORT RETURNS. U.S. FARM REPORT BROUGH TOT YOU BYC ASE IH. RETHINK HOW  PRODUCTIVE YOU CAN BE WITH STEIGER QUADTRACK AND MAGNUM  RWOTRAC TRACTORS FROM CASE IH>

ROUNDTABLE 1
WELCOME BACK TO U S FARM REPORT THIS WEEKEND ON THE ROUNDTABLES WITH DON ROSE AND SUE MARTIN. LET'S  GET INTO THIS IT WHICH JUST THIS WEEK THAT WAS IN MISSISSIPPI WERE THERE GETTING THAT PLANTING IS UNDER WAY A FARMER TOLD ME THE WEATHER 'S SO NICE THAT IF IT STAYS THIS NICE. I'M JUST GOING TO PLANT MORE CORN AND THAT EVEN I SAW EIGHTY ACRES SO AS WE HEAR STORIES LIKE THAT SUE, WHAT DO YOU THINK THIS IT WILL SHAKE OUT???WELL I THINK FIRST OFF, IT'S ALWAYS BEEN A KNOWN THAT FARMERS LOVE TO PLANT CORN.  AND I THINK THAT WITH BEAN 'S COMING DOWN, IT'S BEING A LITTLE MAYBE INCENTIVE-WISE. FARMERS HAD A LOT OF WORK DONE LAST FALL TO GO INTO THIS SEASON. I THINK THAT  NORTH DAKOTA 'S A STATE WHERE GONNA SEE A LOT OF BEANS THIS YEAR OVER CORN.  SOUTH DAKOTA, SOME PARTS OF IT YES. I THINK MINNESOTA 'S GOT A LOTTA DAIRY SO I'M NOT SO SURE ABOUT THAT. SAME WAY AND WISCONSIN. AND MICHIGAN. BUT AT THE END OF THE DAY, I THINK WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE WHEAT ACRES --LOWEST WINTER WHEAT ACRES SINCE 1909.  WHAT 'S THE REST OF THAT GOING TO GO TO? IS IT GOING TO BE CORN, IS IT GOING TO BE BEANS?  I DON'T KNOW SO REALISTICALLY JOHN WHAT DO YOU THINK THESE ACREAGE NUMBERS WILL BE FOR CORN AND CORN AND BEANS??  WELL I THINK WHEN YOU LOOK AT IT, ACTUALLY THE REAL PROBLEM WE HAVE IN THE BUSINESS RIGHT NOW IN AGRICULTURE CULTURE IS WE JUST HAVE PLAIN TOO MANY ACRES. JUST TAKE FOR EXAMPLE IF YOU PUT SOYBEAN ACRES UP THREE MILLION AN AVERAGE IS PROBABLY GOING TO BE THREE TO SEVEN MILLION ACRES.  IF YOU PUT A YIELD OF FORTY EIGHT BUSHELS ON YOU STILL UP AND UP WITH ABOUT FIVE HUNDRED FIFTY MILLION BUSHEL CARRYOVER. SO JUST TOO LARGE. AT THE SAME TIME IF CORN ACRES GO DOWN FOUR MILLION ACRES, AND I IMAGINE THE ESTIMATES ARE GOING TO BE DOWN ONE HALF TO A FOUR MILLION, YOU STILL END UP, IF YOU PUT A TRENDLINE YIELD OF ONE HUNDRED SEVENTY ONE BUSHELS AN ACRE YIELD ON IT,  YOU STILL COME UP WITH THE CARRY OUT OF ABOUT TWO POINT TWO BILLION SO IT 'S IT 'S JUST A LOT OF GRAIN IN A LOT OF ACRES. YOU'RE DOWN TO WEATHER ISSUES PROBABLY.  SOMETHING WE TALKED A YEAR AFTER YEAR IS SEEN THERE 'S A LOT OF ACRES OUT THERE WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE RECORD NUMBER BUT RIGHT NOW WHAT HE THINKS PRICED INTO THE MARKET.IN CHICAGO WHAT DO YOU THINK THOSE TRADERS ARE TAKING AT THIS POINT AND WHAT WE HAVE TO SEE OUT OF USC AT THE REPORT TO BEI EITHER BULLISH OR BEARISH?? AT FIRST THEY WERE TALKING BEAN AND CORN ACRES ALMOST THE SAME. AND THERE 'S LIKE THE ONE TIME IN HISTORY THAT WE'VE EVER SEEN THAT. AND THAT WAS IN NINETEEN EIGHTY THREE WHEN WE HAVE THE PIC PROGRAM.  I THINK THAT WHAT WE'VE GOT IS A CORN ACRE THAT 'S GONNA COME IN A LITTLE OVER NINETY MILLION. I'M THINKING AROUND NINETY POINT SIX MILLION ACRES.  AND I THINK BEAN ACRES ARE NOT AS LOW AS WHAT SOME OF THE ESTIMATES WERE THIS WEEK. I THINK THEY'RE A LITTLE HIGHER TOO.  I THINK BEAN ACRES PROBABLY WILL BE A LITTLE OVER EIGHTY EIGHT MILLION ACRES. BUT NOT AS HIGH AS WHAT THEY ORIGINALLY STARTED OUT. SO WHAT 'S THAT WE DO HAVE BEAN ACRES OVER EIGHTY EIGHT MILLION AND WE HAVE CORN ACRES JUST OVER NINETY MILLION. IS THAT A BEARISH OR BULLISH STORY HE STAND FIRM FOR PRICES??? WELL I THINK LONG TERM I MEAN THE GRAIN MARKET IS IN A SUPPLY BEAR MARKET. YOU NEED TO COME UP WITH SOMETHING TO CHANGE THAT. WE DON'T HAVE A PROGRAM TO TAKE ACRES OUT OF PRODUCTION. OR ANYTHING AT THE PRESENT TIME. WE DON'T HAVE A LOAN PROGRAMS. I THINK THE BOTTOM LINE CORN IN THE FALL IF WE GET THESE ACRES WITHOUT WEATHER, WHETHER IT 'S NINETY OR NINETY FOUR, WHETHER BEANS ARE 83 OR 88 AND I THINK YOU'RE DESTINED TO SEE CORN GO TO THREE TO THREE TWENTY ON DECEMBER. YOU'RE LOOKING AT SOYBEANS AT EIGHT FIFTY TWO AT NINE. BUT BEFORE THAT, WE GOT A LOT OF WEATHER AHEAD OF US IN THIS IS WRONG TIME OF YEAR TO TURN BEARISH ON GRAIN YOU TALK ABOUT WEATHER AND WE'RE SEEING SOME OF THAT DRY WEATHER CREEP INTO MAJOR PART OF THE CORN BELT. IS THAT CONCERN YOU AT ALL?? I THINK WE DO HAVE A YEAR OF WEATHER THIS YEAR. THE KEY WILL BE WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. BUT WILL IT BE FOLLOWED UP WITH DRYNESS? AND THAT 'S THE KEY,  BUT THERE 'S AN INTERESTING ANALOG STUDY. IF YOU TAKES A FALSE SOUTH DAKOTA AND YOU GO BACK IN HISTORY TO LIKE SAY EVERY TIME THEY HAD RECORD RAINFALL IN THE FALL,  THERE ENDED UP BEING A BIG DROP IN YIELDS.D NOT TALKING ABOUT PRODUCTION, YIELDS. AND NINETEEN TWENTY NINE THEY HAD A VERY WET RECORD FALL AND THE NEXT YEAR THE CORN YIELD DROPPED TWENTY PERCENT. IN NINETEEN SEVENTY THREE, SAME THING. RECORD RAINFALL IN THE FALL THE NEXT YEAR THE ACORNS NATIONAL CORN YIELD FELL TWENTY ONE PERCENT NINETEEN EIGHTY TWO THE RECORD RAINFALL AGAIN IN SIOUX FALLS AND AGAIN THE NEXT YEAR THE NATIONAL YIELD FELL TWENTY EIGHT PERCENT NOW GRANTED THAT 'S SEALED I NOT TALK ABOUT PRODUCTION ON ITS SHELL AND SO THIS LAST FALL SIOUX FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA HAD RECORD RAINFALL AGAIN OF TWELVE POINT SIX THREE INCHES OF RAIN. AND SO WE'LL SEE WHAT HAPPENS BUT IT IS KIND OF FUNNY HOW DRY IT IN SOME AREAS WE REALLY ARE HOW MILD THE WEATHER REALLY HAS MEANT I WAS THE WARMEST ON RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY AND YOU KNOW MARCH HASN'T BEEN A WHOLE LOT DIFFERENT WITHOUT SOME COLD SPELLS BUT NOT REALLY. IT 'S BEEN PRETTY MILD. I THINK WE DO HAVE A SITUATION THIS YEAR BUT RIGHT NOW WE'RE IN A LAND NOT AND YOU DON'T HAVE EL NINO ON YOU DON'T HAVE OUR LONGINGS AND IN HISTORY GOING BACK AT LEAST TWENTY FIVE YEARS WHENEVER WE WERE IN A LAW NOT A GRAIN PRICES HAVE BOTTOMED 'S A RALLY. WHILE THERE COULD BE A BULLISH STORY COMING FOR YOU. BUT RIGHT NOW OR CONTINUE TO SEIZE AND EASE PRESSURE ON PRICES AND PUTTING FLEMING 'S GET DOWN TO TAKE ON THAT WHEN WE COME BACK AFTER THE BREAK

ROUNDTABLE 2
WELCOME BACK WHAT DON THIS WEEK WE SAW PRESSURE ON SOYBEAN PRICES IS THAT ANTICIPATION FOR THIS ACREAGE REPORT IS AT HIS RECORD AMOUNT OF OF SOYBEANS THAT WERE SEEN OUT OF SOUTH AMERICA WHAT 'S PRESSURING PRICES???  THE REAL THING IS ARE BEAR MARKET HAS BEEN ON HOLD. REMEMBER LAST YEAR AT THIS TIME WERE A YEAR THE CROPS WERE GET SMALLER IN SOUTH AMERICA. GREATLY SMALLER. NOW WHAT 'S HAPPENING IS THE CROPS ARE GETTING BIGGER AND THAT GENETICALLY LEAP MAYBE EVEN. IF YOU LOOK AT THE CORN IN BRAZIL,  IS PROBABLY ONE BILLION TO ONE POINT TWO BILLION BUSHELS BIGGER THAN A YEAR AGO. PROBABLY ARE ON ARGENTINE CORN--PROBABLY FIFTY MILLION BUSHELS LARGER IN THE SOYBEANS IN BRAZIL WERE PROBABLY FOUR HUNDRED TWENTY TWO EVEN MAYBE FIVE MILLION BUSHELS MORE THAN A YEAR AGO. ITS THAT  LARGE SUPPLY. THAT 'S NUMBER ONE. THEN RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF IT, WE DON'T HAVE ANY REAL WEATHER PROBLEMS HERE YET IN THE U S. IS TOO EARLY. SO WE'RE FOCUSED ON THE ACRES. AND WHEN YOU LOOK AT IT SO IT MEANS A YEAR AGO GOING INTO A REPORT JULY SOYBEANS WERE ABOUT NINE TWELVE. AND NOW ARE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THAT. AND SO I THINK IT 'S THAT THERE IS CONTINUING TO WEIGH ON THE MARKET. DO YOU THINK SOUTH AMERICA 'S CROP WILL CONTINUE TO GET LARGER ?? WELL THAT'S THE BIG PROBLEM. IT 'S A BIG CROP GET BIGGER AND WE HAVE TO COMPETE IN THE WORLD MARKET. IT 'S KIND OF MUSICAL CHAIRS BECAUSE NOBODY WANTS TO SELL AT THESE PRICE LEVELS SO YOU GRADUALLY ARE MEETING HER AND OUT IN YOU HAVE TO FIGURE OUT YOU KNOW ALL THE TIME FRAME TO SELL AND THE OPTIMUM TIME TO SEE THE MARKET MOVE UP SHARPLY. IT 'S GONNA BE A FIGHT WE'RE GONNA WATCH THE WEATHER A CLOSE.   DO YOU THINK THAT THE SUMMER OF HIS CROP WILL CONTINUE TO GET LARGER??  THE LATEST ESTIMATES ONE HUNDRED ELEVEN MILLION METRIC TONS, THE USDA HAS ALREADY COME UP AND MET WHAT CONAN HAD TO SAY. AND I THINK THAT IF IT GETS LARGER I'LL SAY GO ON MUCH OVER 108, ONE O NINE. I THINK IT 'S COME LIKE THAT FISH LIKE THAT AWAY. THEY JUST KEEP SAYING IT 'S BIGGER. IN THE MEANTIME, I DO THINK THAT THE  LIKE A MOTTO GROSSO THE FARMER 'S NOT VERY AGGRESSIVE ON HIS SELLING. LAST YEAR HE WAS SIXTY SIX PERCENT SOLD THIS YEAR HE'S THE SIXTY TWO, SO THAT GIVES MORE SELLING TO BE ABLE TO COME TO THE MARKET AND MATEGROSO'S PRETTY MUCH HARVESTED . I THINK THEY'RE AROUND NINETY FIVE PERCENT HARVESTED. THAT 'S US A PROVINCE OR STATE THAT ACCOUNTS FOR THIRTY PERCENT OF THEIR BEANS.  I'M NOT AS BEARISH AS OTHERS ARE. I THINK THAT THE MARKET 'S JUSTIFIED AND BREAKING RIGHT NOW BECAUSE THE FOCUS IS ALL ON WHAT WE KNOW OUT OF BRAZIL AND ALSO THE FACT THAT THERE ISN'T A LOT OF OTHER NEWS. BUT DEMAND'S BEEN STELLAR. AND IN THE MEANTIME WE LOOK AT CHINA AND THEIR DEMAND IS EXPECTED TO GROW BY SEVEN TO EIGHT PERCENT THIS NEXT YEAR FOR SOY MEAL AND CORN DEMAND IS BEING INCREASING. SO I THINK THAT WHAT WE HAVE TO LOOK AT IS BEYOND JUST TOTAL SUPPLY SUPPLY. 'S EASY TO DEAL WITH. IT 'S THAT DEMAND THAT RUNS ALLUSIVE AND RIGHT NOW WE DON'T KNOW WHAT OUR ACRES ARE. SOLD THE ONLY THING IS THE BEST GAME IN TOWN IS TO SELL THE MARKET WHEN YOU HAVE A MARKET THAT 'S BEEN LOADED LONG FOR QUITE SOME TIME. SO I COULD SEE THE MARKET GOING DOWN. I THINK WE PUT A LOW IN APRIL. AND THAT WE RALLY AND DOWN THEN WE'LL SEE HOW WELL WE EVOLVE OUT OF THAT. I THINK THEY'LL BE ANOTHER LOW COMING IN AUGUST. SO I THINK THAT THE WEATHER I AGREE WITH DON WHETHER IT 'S VERY KEY. BUT I THINK OUR DEMAND IS GONNA BE PHENOMENAL. AND WHEN I LOOK AT CORN AND THE EXPORTS WERE SEEING, IT IS JUST THE SAME THING ALL OVER. YOU'VE GOT COMPETITORS DROPPING IN PRODUCTION ON WHEAT. YES ARGENTINE AND BRAZIL, BUT I I WISH THAT SOME BIG POSSIBILITIES OF A GOOD STORY HERE.  AND WAIT WELL SPEAKING OF BRAZIL AN INTERESTING STORY THIS WEEK WHEN IT COMES TO THE OTHER SHAKE UP IN THE BEEF MARKET AND IN AND LOOKING IN THAT SCANDAL DOWN THERE YOU KNOW THAT REALLY ADDED FUEL TO THE CATTLE MARKETS THIS WEEK IS THAT SHORT TERM MARKET WE SEE THIS PLAY OUT EVEN EVEN FURTHER DOWN???? THE WELL COULD BE A BULL STORY. IT COULD BE A BEAR STORY. I THINK THAT 'S THE REAL QUESTION MARK BUT WHEN HE PUT BRAZIL IN PERSPECTIVE, THEY ACCOUNT FOR ABOUT TWENTY PERCENT OF THE OVERALL BEEF TRADE IN THE WORLD. THAT'S  HUGE AND THEY SELL FOUR TIMES AS MUCH POULTRY AS THEY DO BEEF. THEY'RE A BIG PLAYER OUT HERE.  BUT YOU HAVE TO BELIEVE THAT THEY'RE GOING TO GO TO WORK AND IMPROVE THEIR SITUATION. THEY'RE WORKING VERY AGGRESSIVELY RIGHT NOW. WHEN YOU'RE A BIG PLAYER IN THE MARKET LIKE THAT, AND THEY HAVE TIES GOING IN TO US ALSO, THAT THEY'RE GOING TO GOETHE WORK AND FIGURE THIS OUT SOONER RATHER LATER 'S WHAT I WOULD BET. COULD HELP R B I AND OUR BEEF. EXPORTS WERE GOOD COULD CONTINUE TO HELP THAT??? WELL I THINK IN A WHAT INDIRECT WAY IT DOES. FIRST OFF BRAZIL ACCOUNTS FOR EIGHTY FIVE PERCENT OF THE BEEF GOING INTO CHINA. AND INTO THE EUROPE AND THERE 'S LIKE ONE HUNDRED FIFTY COUNTRIES THAT THEY SUPPLY IN BEEF.  AS THEY ARE PULLED AWAY FROM SOME COUNTRIES, HAVE ALWAYS HAD LIKE EIGHT COUNTRIES BAN IMPORTS OF BEEF AT LEAST TEMPORARILY.  AND EVEN THE U S I THINK A BANNED ON ONE PACKINGHOUSE OF BEEF SENDING BEEF INTO THE U S. BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS WHAT IT DID FOR US IS IT MADE US A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE. AND OUR MEAT INSPECTORS ARE BEING PUT ON NOTICE THAT THEY HAVE TO BE A LITTLE BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN CHECKING FOR HERE SO THAT WE THWART ANY POTENTIAL OF THAT HAPPENING TO US. IN THE MEANTIME YOU LOOK AT THE CATTLE MARKET WE HAVE AN EXPORT PICTURE THAT 'S JUST STELLAR. AND YOU HAVE OF AUSTRALIA WHO IS UNABLE TO STEP UP TO PLAY THERE AREN'T ANY OTHER MAJOR SUPPLIERS OF BEEF IN THE WORLD BESIDES US SO I THINK WE DO GET SOME BUSINESS OFFICE  I THINK YOU GO WE WILL GET A CLOSING THAT 'S WHEN WE COME BACK ON U S FARM REPORT 'S A DON'T GO ANYWHERE

MARKETS NOW
ADLIB

JOHN’S WORLD
JUST RECENTLY THE PRESIDENT ROLLED OUT HIS  BUDGET PROPOSAL FOR THE COMING YEAR. AND WHILE IT'S ONLY A PROPOSAL--MANY OF THE  LISTED CUTS RAISED EYEBROWS...IF NOT VOICES. IF ADOPTED -- IT WOULD EVEN-- IT SEEMS-- DIG INTO  JOHN'S WORLD. ONE OF THE UNSURPRISING BUDGET CUTS UNVEILED  BY OMB DIRECTOR MULVANEY WAS TO ELIMINATE  FUNDING FOR CORPORATION FOR PUBLIC  BROADCASTING WHICH FUNDS THE PUBLIC  BROADCASTING SERVICE (PBS) AND NATIONAL PUBLIC  RADIO (NPR). THAT GOVERNMENT OUTLAY IS ROUGHLY  $500 MILLION DOLLARS. THERE ARE MANY OTHER  GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS TARGETED TO BE AXED,  WHICH IN TOTAL WON'T BEGIN TO PAY FOR THE  MASSIVE DEFENSE SPENDING EXPANSION, BUT TODAY I  WANT TO FOCUS ON PBS. ODDLY ENOUGH, WHILE I AM A  BIG FAN AND WATCH A LOT OF PBS, I THINK THIS BATTLE  MAY NOT BE WORTH FIGHTING. ENDING GOVERNMENT  FUNDING WILL NOT SHUT DOWN PUBLIC TV OR RADIO.  WHAT IT WILL DO IS DEVASTATE RURAL PBS AND NPR  STATIONS. SEVENTY PERCENT OF CPB'S FUNDING  FLOWS OUT TO MEMBER STATIONS, WHERE IT  CONTRIBUTES A WHOPPING 35% OF LOCAL STATION  REVENUE. THAT SAID, MY FEELING IS RURAL AMERICA  NO LONGER PUTS A HIGH PRIORITY ON THESE  SERVICES. LOCAL PBS COVERAGE MAY SADLY  DISAPPEAR FOR ALL BUT LARGER CITIES, BUT I DON'T  HEAR FARM OR RURAL VOICES OFFERING MUCH  SUPPORT TO PREVENT THIS OUTCOME. LIKE MANY  OTHER TARGETED GOVERNMENT SERVICES, RURAL  AMERICA MAY BE ABOUT TO FIND OUT WHO ACTUALLY BENEFITED MOST FROM THOSE SERVICES. LARGER  STATIONS LIKE WGBH IN BOSTON OR WETA IN  WASHINGTON WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY SURVIVE.  MEANWHILE THE CHANGES IN HOW WE WATCH TV MAY  COMPENSATE BY SWITCHING VIEWERS TO INTERNET  STREAMING RATHER THAN BROADCASTING. THIS  ADMITTEDLY BRUTAL FINANCIAL SHOCK COULD CREATE  A MORE POWERFUL AND INDEPENDENT  COMMUNICATIONS VOICE SUSTAINED BY INDIVIDUAL  RESOURCES THAT COULD PURSUE JOURNALISM AND  CONTENT PRODUCTION ON THEIR OWN TERMS.  JUST LIKE FARMERS AND FARM SUBSIDIES, PUBLIC  BROADCASTING IS CHAFES UNDER GOVERNMENT  OVERSIGHT, ALWAYS IN THE CROSSHAIRS OF  IDEOLOGICAL OPPOSITION IN CONGRESS. WHILE I FEEL  MUCH WILL BE LOST, ESPECIALLY FOR LOWER INCOME  AMERICANS LIVING OUTSIDE POPULATION CENTERS,  UNLESS I'M MISSING SOMETHING, THIS CONCERN IS NOT  WIDELY SHARED BY MY COUNTRY NEIGHBORS. MAYBE  IT'S TIME TO PLAN ON REBUILDING PUBLIC  BROADCASTING FROM THE CONSEQUENCES OF SHORT- SIGHTED LEGISLATION. 

TEASE
STILL TO COME....COTTON IS KING IN MISSISSIPPI AGAIN, AND IT'S MOVING MACHINES. WE'RE ON THE ROAD WITH MACHINERY PETE. STAY WITH US...WE'LL BE RIGHT BACK.

HEADLINES
WELCOME BACK TO US FARM REPORT, I'M TYNE  MORGAN AND HERE'S WHAT WE'RE WORKING ON FOR  YOU THIS HALF HOUR. WHAT WILL 2017 LOOK LOOK LIKE IN THE FIELDS?  WE  HAVE THAT FOR YOU IN OUR FARM JOURNAL REPORT. COTTON IS KING IN MISSISSIPPI, AND WE'LL  TAKE YOU TO ON THE ROAD WITH MACHINERY PETE. AND JOHN HAS ANOTHER CONVERSATION ABOUT THE  SLOWING POPULATION GROWTH. 

PERDUE CONFIRMATION HEARING
NOW FOR THE HEADLINES...FORMER GEORGIA  GOVERNOR SONNY PERDUE MADE HIS CASE THIS WEEK  TO LEAD THE USDA. ON THURSDAY PERDUE'S CONFIRMATION HEARING  STARTED IN THE SENATE AG COMMITTEE. LED BY CHAIRMAN PAT ROBERTS OF KANSAS THE  HEARING FOCUSED ON A MULTITUDE OF TOPICS  INCLUDING PERDUE'S BACKGROUND, HIS BUSINESS  DEALINGS AND HIS THOUGHTS ABOUT THE CURRENT  STATE OF AGRICULTURE AND THE ECONOMY. IN FRONT  OF THE SENATE, PERDUE MADE CLEAR THAT HTE  VITALITY OF SMALL COMMUNITIES DEPENDS ON A  STRONG FARM ECONOMY.  AND HE SAYS MOVOING FORWARD, HE WILL TAKE A BI- PARTISAN APPROACH IN IMPROVING AGRICULTURE. <"EVEN THOUGH GEORGIA MAY NOT COMPARE TO SOME  OF YOUR STATES IN SOME AGRICULTURE SECTORS I'M  PROUD TO SAY I COME FROM A STATE WHO'S NUMBER  ONE ECONOMIC DRIVER IS AGRICULTURE. IN GEORGIA  AGRICULTURE IS ONE AREA WHERE DEMOCRATS AND  REPUBLICANS HAVE CONSISTENTLY REACHED ACROSS  THE AISLE AND WORKED TOGETHER. I'M PLEASED TO  KNOW THE REACHING ACROSS THE AISLE IS COMMON  PRACTICE IN THIS COMMITTEE WHERE PARTISANSHIP  DOESN'T GET IN THE WAY OF GOOD SOLUTIONS FOR  AMERICA'S FARMERS RANCHERS AND CONSUMERS."> PERDUE ALSO HIT ON TRADE, SAYING IT'S THE ANSWER,  AND EXPRESSED INTEREST IN DEVELOPING NEW  MARKETS, INCLUDING SOTHEAST ASIA. 

SOUTHERN PLAINS WILDFIRES
RANCHERS CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH THE LAST IMPACT  OF RECENT WILDFIRES IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. USDA ANNOUNCING THIS WEEK IT'S DESIGNATING SOME  6 MILLION DOLLARS IN AID TO HELP PRODUCERS  RECOVER FROM THE DEVASTATING FIRES.  THAT FUNDING-- ON TOP OF THE LIVESTOCK INDEMNITY  PROGRAM-- WILL BE AVAILABLE THROUGH E-QUIP-- AND  WILL HELP WITH GRAZING LAND RESTORATION,  REBUILDING FENCING AND PROTECTING WATERSHEDS. PRODUCERS IN THE AFFECTED COUNTIES SHOULD  CHECK WITH THE LOCAL NRCS OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. <I THINK WE'VE HAD TO DO A LITTLE PRODDING  BECAUSE SOME OF THOSE CHECKS EVEN FROM LAST  YEAR'S FIRE HAVE BEEN DELAYED. WE CAN'T HAVE  THAT. IF WE HAVE A DISASTER OF THAT KIND AS THE  BANKER DOWN IN ASHLAND SAID WE DON'T WANT THE  HELP BUT WE NEED IT. 3:07 > IN KANSAS - THE LATEST VERY ROUGH ESTIMATE ON  LIVESTOCK DEATHS IS ANYWHERE FROM FOUR-TO  EIGHT-THOUSAND HEAD OF CATTLE. IN TEXAS - THE STATE ANIMAL HEALTH COMMISSION  PUTS THE FIGURE AT 25-HUNDRED HEAD OF CATTLE  AND 19-HUNDRED HOGS LOST TO THE FLAMES. IN OKLAHOMA....THE STATE AG DEPARTMENT SAYS  THREE THOUSAND CATTLE PERISHED, ALONG WITH 65- HUNDRED SWINE. FOR THE VERY LATEST ON THE FIRES AND HOW YOU  CAN HELP, BE SURE TO VISIT AGWEB DOT COM  FORWARD SLASH WILDFIRES.

ALABAMA BIRD FLU
AGRICULTURE OFFICIALS SAY BIRD FLU HAS BEEN  CONFIRMED AT ANOTHER COMMERCIAL CHICKEN FARM  IN ALABAMA. SO FAR THIS MONTH, BIRD FLU HAS BEEN FOUND IN  THREE SOUTHERN STATES INCLUDING ALABAMA,  KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE.  EXPERTS SAY ITS THE WORST U.S. OUTBREAK SINCE  2015. BOTH LOW PATHOGENIC AND HIGH PATH STRAINS HAVE  BEEN DISCOVERED. MORE THAN 200-THOUSAND BIRDS HAVE BEEN  DESTROYED TO STOP THE SPREAD.

DES MOINES WATER WORKS
LATE LAST WEEK, A FEDERAL COURT DISMISSED THE  NUTRIENTS RUNOFF LAWSUIT FILED BY DES MOINES  WATER WORKS AGAINST IOWA DRAINAGE DISTRICTS ON  THE RACCOON RIVER WATERSHED.  THE DES MOINES WATER WORKS ALLEGED THE  DRAINAGE DISTRICTS WERE POINT-SOURCE POLLUTERS  AS DEFINED BY THE CLEAN WATER ACT.  AND SOUGHT DAMAGES AGAINST THE DISTRICTS FOR  NITRATE RUNOFF.  IN HIS RULING -- THE JUDGE SAID-- THE IOWA GENERAL  ASSEMBLY IS THE APPROPRIATE BODY TO ADDRESS  THE STATE'S WATER QUALITY ISSUES -- NOT THE  COURT. 

KEYSTONE XL CONSTRUCTION
THE KEYSTONE X-L PIPELINE RECEIVING THE FINAL  GREEN LIGHT ON FRIDAY TO BEGIN CONSTRUCTION, A  EFFORT THAT'S BEEN IN THE WORKS SINCE 2008.  THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION GRANTING THE PIPELINE  ITS FEDERAL PERMIT, WHICH WAS A MAJOR HURDLE. FORMER PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA REJECTED THE  PIPELINE IN 2015, BUT EARLIER THIS YEAR, PRESIDENT  TRUMP SIGNED A MEMORANDUM TO REVIVE IT.  THE 875 MILE LINE WOULD CARRY 830 THOUSAND  BARRELS AOF HEAVY OIL SAND PETROLEUM A DAY  FROM ALBERTA CANAA TO NEBRASKA. FROM THERE,  THE OIL WILL TRAVEL THROUGH EXISTING LINES TO THE  GULF COAST TO BE REFINED.

SOUTH CAROLINA FREEZE
SOUTH CAROLINA'S FAMED PEACH CROP TOOK A  BEATING FROM A HARD FREEZE LAST WEEK.  RECORD COLD FROZE THE EARLY BLOOM.  THE CROP WAS ADVANCED DUE TO A WARM WINTER. THE STATE'S AG COMMISSIONER SAYS PEACH  GROWERS EXPECT TO PICK ONLY TEN-TO-FIFTEEN  PERCENT OF THE NORMAL CROP.  SOUTH CAROLINA'S BLUEBERRY AND STRAWBERRY  CROPS WERE ALSO HURT. AND IN GEORGIA, UP TO 80 PERCENT OF THE  BLUEBERRY CROP IS GONE. ONE ESTIMATE ON THE CROP LOSSES-- BETWEEN THE  TWO STATES--IS APPROACHING ONE BILLION DOLLARS. BETWEEN THE TWO STATES, CROP LOSSES FROM THE  FREEZE COULD APPROACH $1 BILLION, OFFICIALS SAID. GEORGIA MIGHT BE THE PEACH STATE, BUT  BLUEBERRIES HAVE RECENTLY PASSED PEACHES IN  VALUE. BLUEBERRIES RIPEN FASTER IN THE WARMER  CLIMATE AND CAN GET INTO STORE QUICKER THAN  TRADITIONAL BLUEBERRY GROWING REGIONS FURTHER  NORTH. BUT NOT THIS YEAR. "WE SAW BLUEBERRY FIELDS THAT HAD THE POTENTIAL  TO BE THE BIGGEST AND BEST CROP OF GEORGIA'S  PRODUCTION HISTORY THAT YOU WOULD NOW NOT BE  ABLE TO FIND ENOUGH BLUEBERRIES THAT SURVIVED  THE COLD TO MAKE ONE PIE," BLACK SAID. TEMPERATURES DIPPED INTO THE 20S BOTH  WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE MID- MARCH FREEZES AREN'T UNUSUAL IN MUCH OF THE  SOUTHEAST, MANY CROPS WERE BLOOMING UP TO  THREE WEEKS EARLY BECAUSE OF THE UNUSUALLY  MILD WINTER. SOUTH CAROLINA IS THE SECOND BIGGEST PEACH  PRODUCER IN THE UNITED STATES BEHIND ONLY  CALIFORNIA. FOODIES ARE ESPECIALLY DRAWN TO THE  STATE'S PEACHES, CONSIDERING THEM THE JUICIEST  AND HIGHEST QUALITY IN THE NATION. "PEACHES ARE A SIGNATURE SOUTH CAROLINA CROP,"  SOUTH CAROLINA AGRICULTURE COMMISSIONER HUGH WEATHERS SAID. BOTH STATES REPORTED SOME DAMAGE TO  STRAWBERRIES. NORTH CAROLINA FARMERS SAID  APPLES BLOOMING EARLIER THAN USUAL WERE HURT  BY THE FREEZE. OFFICIALS SAID IT IS THE MOST DAMAGING FREEZE FOR  THE SOUTHEAST SINCE THE 2007 EASTER FREEZE IN  EARLY APRIL WHERE A SIMILAR COLD SNAP DESTROYED  90 PERCENT OF SOUTH CAROLINA'S PEACHES AND  CAUSED CLOSED TO $1 BILLION IN CROP DAMAGE  ACROSS THE REGION.

WEATHER
METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH  OUR NATIONAL FORECAST. MIKE CAN WE EXPECT ANY  MORE COLD SNAPS IN THE COMING WEEKS OR ARE WE  HEADED FOR EXTENDED WARMTH?

PROSPECTIVE PLANTINGS REPORT PREVIEW
AS WE MENTIONED EARLIER, THE MUCH-ANTICIPATED  PROSPECTIVE PLANTINGS REPORT WILL BE RELEASED  BY USDA NEXT WEEK AND FOR SEVERAL MONTHS NOW  THE AGENCY AND PRIVATE FORECASTERS HAVE BEEN  PREDICTING A LARGE SHIFT IN ACRES FOR 2017.   MOST OF THE TRADE IS LOOKING FOR A SHIFT FROM  CORN TO SOYBEANS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN RECORD  SOYBEAN ACREAGE. HOWEVER, REGIONAL REPORTER MICHELLE ROOK  TALKED TO FARMERS AROUND THE COUNTRY AND GOT  A LITTLE DIFFERENT OUTLOOK.   WITH WHEAT PRICES NEAR 10 YEAR LOWS IN 2016 IT'S UNDERSTANDABLE  THAT FARMERS MIGHT PLANT LESS ACRES IN 2017.    "WITH THE CASH PRICES AND WITH MARKET PRICES WHERE THERE AT  THEY'RE WAY OFF, THEY'RE TWO, THREE DOLLARS AWAY FROM THAT  BREAKEVEN COST."   HOWEVER, CORN PRICES HAVE ALSO BEEN BELOW BREAKEVEN AND  FARMERS HAVE SEEN THE CORN SOYBEAN PRICE RATIO FAVORING  SOYBEANS MOST OF THE WINTER.    "YOU CAN'T SELL CORN RIGHT NOW NEW CROP AT A BREAKEVEN, AND  YOU'VE BEEN ABLE TO DO THAT WITH BEANS FOR QUITE A WHILE."   SOME OF THE INCREASE IN SOYBEAN ACRES IS COMING FROM CORN.    "THOSE WHO HAVE BEEN GROWING CONTINUOUS CORN WILL LOOK FOR AN  OPPORTUNITY TO PUT SOME SOYBEANS BACK IN THE MIX."   AND SOME ACRES ARE SHIFTING OUT OF WHEAT.  IN FACT ACREAGE COULD  BE BELOW 46 MILLION NATIONALLY IF THE WET CONDITIONS LEAD TO LESS  SPRING WHEAT IN THE DAKOTAS.    "YOU KNOW WE'RE SEEING THE ACRES SHIFT OVER DEFINITELY TO THE  CORN AND BEAN AREAS WHERE THEY'RE CAPABLE OF DOING THAT. THE  IRONIC THING IS THE LAST TIME WE'VE SEEN ACRES THIS LOW WE ACTUALLY  PLANTED THE WHEAT WITH A HORSE AND A PLOW."  WHILE THERE'S GENERAL AGREEMENT ABOUT A SHIFT IN ACRES THIS YEAR,  THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW BIG WILL THE SHIFT BE?  SOME PRIVATE FIRMS  ARE PROJECTING MORE THAN 5 MILLION MORE ACRES OF BEANS AND OVER  4 MILLION ACRES LESS CORN.   BUT SOME FARMERS ARE SKEPTICAL, INCLUDING THE PRESIDENT OF THE  AMERICAN SOYBEAN ASSOCIATION.   "AND I REALLY DON'T THINK YOU'LL SEE 5 MILLION ACRES MORE OF  SOYBEANS THIS YEAR.  IF THAT HAPPENS THAT WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME  IN HISTORY WE'VE HAD MORE ACRES OF SOYBEANS THAN CORN AND I JUST  DON'T THINK THAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN."  "I ALSO SELL SEED AND I'VE NOT SEEN A BIG SHIFT.  THE GUYS THAT  RAISED SUCCESSFUL CORN LAST YEAR THEY WANT TO RAISE CORN AGAIN."  AND MANY FARMERS SAY THEY'RE ARE STICKING WITH THEIR ROTATIONS.    RAY GAESSER, IOWA FARMER, "IN OUR AREA AND IN IOWA I THINK IN THE MIDWEST WHERE WE HAVE HISTORICALLY HAD A CORN SOYBEAN ROTATION  ON OUR FARM WE'RE NOT CHANGING ANYTHING.  I DON'T THINK MOST OF  MY NEIGHBORS ARE CHANGING." "I'M GOING TO HOLD THE COURSE.  I'M A 50-50 SOYBEAN CORN  ROTATION.  I WILL CONTINUE TO DO THAT." SO ONCE AGAIN THERE MAY BE SOME SURPRISES ON REPORT DAY AND  EVEN THEN WEATHER CAN TRUMP ALL OF THAT.   FOR U-S FARM REPORT, I'M MICHELLE ROOK. THANKS MICHELLE.

TEASE
SOME CORN AND ESPECIALLY WHEAT ACRES WILL ALSO  BE PLANTED TO PEANUTS AND COTTON DUE TO A  HIGHER PRICES  COTTON PLANTINGS COULD BE UP NEARLY 1 MILLION  ACRES IN 2017.    JOHN PHIPPS IS CULTIVATING GREAT VIEWER  QUESTIONS--HE JOINS US NEXT. "THE WORKING AGE POPULATION, A CLOSER LOOK."

CUSTOMER SUPPORT
FROM HIS FARM IN ILLINOIS, JOHN PHIPPS CONTINUES A  RECENT CONVERSATION ABOUT POPULATION GROWTH  WITH A QUESTION FROM A VIEWER. JOHN. ELMER ZIMMERMAN ADDS A COMPLICATING FACTOR TO MY COMMENTS  ABOUT THE SLOWING GROWTH OF THE US POPULATION.  "AN ADD-ON TO YOUR POPULATION ARTICLE:  ANOTHER KEY FACTOR IS THAT WORKING-POPULATION (AGE 25-60), WHICH SUPPORTS AN ECONOMY, IS  DECLINING FASTER THAN OVERALL POPULATION.  THIS PERCENTAGE  CHANGE -- WORKING POPULATION TO NON-WORKING POPULATION --  DRAMATICALLY AFFECTS ECONOMIC GROWTH." THANKS FOR THE INPUT, ELMER. TO BEGIN WITH, LET'S MAKE SURE WE'RE CLEAR ON WHAT I WAS  TRYING TO SAY. THE US POPULATION IS STILL GROWING, BUT THE RATE OF  GROWTH IS DECLINING. THAT'S WHAT THE TWO CHARTS I USED SHOWED.  THINK OF IT AS A CAR DECELERATING, BUT NOT GOING IN REVERSE.   THE PROBLEM YOU ACCURATELY POINTED OUT IS THE WORKING AGE  POPULATION, AND HERE'S WHERE IT GETS TRICKY. THE FED, WHICH  TRACKS THESE NUMBERS LOOKS AT AGES 15 TO 64. THAT CHART LOOKS  LIKE THIS. BUT MANY ANALYSES LOOK AT PRIME WORKING AGE 25-54.  THAT CHART LOOKS MORE TROUBLING, AS IT HAS FLATTENED OUT. BUT  THERE'S EVEN MORE UNSETTLING NEWS. THIS RESEARCH FROM PEW  RELEASED THIS MONTH SHOWS THE EFFECT ON OUR WORKING AGE  POPULATION WITH AND WITHOUT IMMIGRATION – OF ALL TYPES.   ALL THESE NUMBERS MATTER BECAUSE OF JAPAN. JAPAN IS A WEALTHY  COUNTRY WHOSE ECONOMY HAS STAGNATED LARGELY BECAUSE  "WORKING AGE" ALSO MEANS "SPENDING AGE", AND THEIR WORKING  AGE DEMOGRAPHIC IS SHRINKNG.  JAPAN HAS AVOIDED – BARELY –  RECESSION BY EXPORTING TO MAKE UP FOR ABSENT DOMESTIC DEMAND.  BOTTOM LINE FOR THE US: SLOW-GROWING OR DECLINING WORKING AGE  POPULATION PRESENTS REAL HURDLES FOR ECONOMIC EXPANSION.  COMBINED WITH TRADE POLICIES THAT HAMPER US EXPORTS, THIS COULD  SPELL REAL TROUBLE REAL SOON.  

ON THE ROAD WITH MACHINERY PETE
MOMENTUM IN THE COTTON FIELDS OF MISSISSIPPI IS  HELPING MOVE MACHINES AT WADE INCORPORATED.   THIS WEEK WE'RE ON THE ROAD WITH MACHINERY PETE  TO GREENWOOD MISSISISSIPPI TO SEE HOW  EQUIPMENT TRENDS ARE PLAYING OUT THERE. MOMENTUM IN THE COTTON FIELDS OF MISSISISPPI IS HELPING MOVE MAHICNES AT WADE IC. THIS WEEK WE'RE ON THE ROAD MAHCINE PETE TO GREENWOOD MISSISSIPPITO SEE HOW TO EQUIPMENT TRENDS RE PLAYING OUT THERE. THESE GREEN MISSISSIPPI FIELDS WILL BE A BLANKET  OF WHITE THIS FALL. THAT'S AS AREA FARMERS ARE  EYEING COTTON AS A MORE PROFITABLE CROP TO  PLANT THIS YEAR.  "OUT OF THE 8500 ACRES WE FARM, I'M GOING TO PLANT ABOUT  5000 ACRES OF COTTON, AND THE OTHER HALF, WHAT'S LEFT, SPLIT  BETWEEN BEANS AND CORN" THERE ARE THOSE GETTING BACK INTO COTTON, AND  THEN THOSE WHO NEVER LEFT.   "WERE 100 PERCENT COTTON AND HAVE BEEN FOR 20 YEARS" IT'S COTTON THAT'S BEEN IN AN ACREAGE BATTLE FOR  NEARLY A DECADE.   "WHEN WE SAW THE BIG CHANGE FROM COTTON TO  GRAINS, IT WAS SUCH A DRAMATIC SWING, AND NOW GOING BACK FROM  GRAINS TO COTTON, IT'S MORE OF AN INCREMENTAL GROWTH WHICH I THINK  IS HEALTHY FOR EVERYONE I KNOW IT'S HEALTHIER FOR THE DEALER AND I  KNOW IT'S HEALTHIER FOR THE GROWER"  A HEALTHY TRANSITION THAT'S ALSO SPILLING INTO THE  COTTON EQUIPMENT MARKET. PITTS SOLD OFF EVERY PIECE OF COTTON EQUIPMENT HE OWNED IN 2010. BUT  IN THE PAST TWO YEARS, HE'S LAUNCHED BACK IN,  PURCHASING 3 GENTLY USED COTTON PCIKERS.  "ABOUT 1500 ACRES PER PICKER IS WHAT WE TRY TO PUT ON  ONE. SOME PEOPLE PUT LESS, SOME MORE, BUT THAT'S WHERE WE FEEL  COMFORTABLE" IT'S THE NEWER COTTON PICKERS CHANGING THE WAY  THIS FATHER AND SON HARVESTS. "THEY KEPT ME IN THE COTTON BUSINESS. WITHOUT THE  ROUND BALE PICKER, WE'D BE DOING SOMETHING ELSE"  "THE LABOR SAVINGS WITH THESE NEW PICKIERS IS  UNBLEIVEABLE "  THE ADDED EFFIENCY IS PRODUCED FROM MORE THAN  JUST LOWER LABOR. IT'S ALSO IN THE COTTON BALES.  "WHEN IT HITS THE CARRIER IT'S GOING TO SEND A VOLTAGE  THROUGH THE MACHINE. THAT'S ACUTALLY GOING TO WEIGH THE COTTON,  AND SO THEY'RE GOING TO KNOW HOW MUCH WEIGHT IS BACK THERE SO  THEY'RE GOING TO KNOW EXACTLY HOW MANY POUNDS IS IN THE BALE  WHEN IT ROLLS OUT OF THE BACK OF THE PICKER" SEE, WE USED TO HAVE TO WEIGH THE COTTON, AND THEN  PLUG IT IN FOR OUR HARVET DOC. SO NOW WITH THE HARVEST DOC, I DON'T  HAVE TO DO THAT. IT MEASURES MOISTURE, IT MEASURES THE WEIGHT OF  THE COTTON GOING IN,  IT'S THOSE ADDED FEATURES PLUS THE SURGE IN  ACRES PUTTING MORE FARMERS IN THE MARKET TO  BUY.  THIS YEAR IS'T TOUGH TO EVEN GET A USED COTON PICKER.  THEYV'E GOBBLED THEM UP PRETTY QUICK THIS YEAR" IT'S CREATED AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE GROWER, AND AN  OPPORTUNITY FOR THE DEALERS JUST TO GET BACK INT EH COTTON PICKER  MARKET. IT'S BEEN WELCOME."  THE COTTON BOOM IS ALSO SHOWING UP ON  MACHINERY PETE'S RADAR.    "THE COTTON MARKET IS INTERESTING. YOU KNOW THESE BIG  RIGS DON'T SHOW UP EVERY DAY AT AUCTION, BUT WHEN THEY DO THE  LAST TWO OF THREE MONTHS HERE, VALUES HAVE BEEN PRETTY STRONG,  AND I THINK THAT JUST REFLECTS THE OPTIMISM IN THE COTNO RMATE RIGHT  NOW. " MACHINERY PETE SAYS IN THE DELTA, IT'S GOOD  CONDITION USED EQUIOPMENT SHOWING A STRONG  PERFORMANCE… A TREND HE'S SEEING ALL ACROSS  THE COUNTRY.  "I THINK WHAT'S HAPPENING TYNE IS THE WHOLE USED  EQUIPMENT MARKET IS CUTTING ON THE LINE OF CONDITION. SO IF IT'S  GOOD CONDITION STUFF, COMBINES, LATE MODEL PALNTERS, WE'VE BEEN  SEEING SOME REALLY STONR PRICES, SO VALUES ARE HOLDING, AND THAT  SURPRISES PEOPLE" HE SAYS THE MIDDLE OF MARCH HISTORICALLY SHOWS  SIGNS OF SOFTNESS, BUT THAT'S NOT THE CASE TODAY  IF THE CONDITION IS GOOD. AND IN THESE MISSISSIPPI FIELDS, IT'S MORE THAN  JUST PURCHAES OF HARVEST EUQIPMENT GAINING  PACE. THE BAILEYS UPGRADED THEIR ENTIRE FLEET  THIS YEAR.   THE MAIN DRIVER UP UPGRADING IS ADDED EFFIIENCENCY.   THE PLANTER ITSELF IS A GREAT TOOL. WE HAVE ROW  CLEANERS AND THENW E USE CULTERS ON THE FRONT AND THEN WE USE A  SPIKE CLOSING WHELL. WE'RE ESSENTIALLY 100% NO TILL, ""WE'RE NO TILL, SO THE REPEATAPEDLTY OF BEING ABLE TO  PLANT IN THE SAME EXACT LOCATION YEAR AFTER YEAR AFTER YEAR  WITHOUT DISTURBING THE SOIL.  FROM TECHNOLOGY IN THE FIELD TO THE  ADVANCEMENTS IN THE MACHINE ITSELF, WADE  INCORPORATED KNOWS THE IMPORTANCE OF A SINGLE  MACHINE.  IF WE HAVE ONE OF THESE GO DOWN, WE'RE LOSING MORE  PRODUCTIVITY THAN WE USED TO BECAUE WER'E ABLE TO COVER MORE  ACRES WITH LESS MACHINERY, SO WE'VE GOT TO MAKE SURE THAT  MACHINERY IS GOING AT ALL TIMES."  AS THESE FARMERS START TO PUSH THE THROTTLE ON  PLANTING IN 2017, MOODS ARE BETTER.  "I'M VERY OPTIMICSTIC ABOT 2017. WADE INCORPORATED  IS IN A GOOD PSOTITION, AND I THINK OUR GROWRS ARE IN A GOOD  PSOTION TO BE ABLE TO CAPITALIZE ON 2017 I THINIK AS A COMPANY  WE'VE BEEN ABLE TO RECALIBRATE THE WAY WE DO BUSINESS IN THE  PAST COUPLE OF YEARS."  IT'S ALSO RECALIBRATING FARMERS' MINDSETS ON THE  YEAR.  9 "OUR LOUTLOOK IS GOOD. WE WISH THE PRICES WERE HIGHER,  AS WELL ALL WISH THEY WERE, BUT WE DO HAVE HOPES FOR A HIGH YIELD  "IT DEPNDS ON OUR YIELDS. LAST YEAR'S YIELDS WERE  CERTAINLY ADEQUATE TO PUT US SLIGHTLY IN THE BLACK." THESE FARMERS HOPE FOR A REPEAT PERFORMANCE  OF 2016, WITH BOTH BETTER YIELDS AND OUTSTANDING  QUALITY OF COTTON. SO, IF MOTHER NATURE LENDS  THEM A HAND, AREA FARMERS THINK THE SKIES THE  LIMIT FOR 2017.

TEASE
NEXT WEEK, WE'LL DIVE EVEN DEEPER INTO THE  COTTON ACREAGE BATTLE. STAY WITH US, MACHINERY  PETE REJOINS US WHEN WE COME BACK. 

TRACTOR TALES
TRACTOR TALES BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE MOST  TRUSTED NAME IN FARM EQUIPMENT, MACHINERY  PETE!. WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES FOLKS!   WE'VE GOT A CLASSIC RED TRACTOR FROM OHIO THAT WASN'T ALWAYS  RED.  THIS FARMALL CUB WAS PAINTED WHITE TO HELP SELL MORE TRACTORS  BACK IN 1950.  ONCE SOLD, THEY WERE PAINTED BACK TO THEIR RED COLOR.   THEY WERE KNOWN AS A CULTI-VISION TRACTOR BECAUSE THEY WERE  OFFSET TO THE LEFT.   THE DRIVER SEAT AND STEERING WHEEL WERE ON THE RIGHT, GIVING  FARMERS A CLEAR VIEW OF THE FIELD. I GOT AN UNUSUAL TRACTOR ITS A WHITE FARMALL CUB THEY WERE ONLY  MADE AND THREE MONTHS OF NINETEEN FIFTY, JANUARY, FEBRUARY AND  MARCH AND THE COMPANY DID THIS AS A PROMOTION. THEY SAID THEY  PAINTED A FARMALL CUB ON THE SHOW A FARMALL C AND THE SUPER A  WAS THE ONLY ONE THAT WAS PAINTED WHITE. THEY WERE SENT OUT TO  DEALERS TO ATTRACT ATTENTION TO HOPEFULLY INCREASE OUR SALES. ONCE  THE TRACTOR WAS SO OLD IT WAS REQUIRED TO BE PAINTED RED. THEY  COULDN'T SELL IT AS LONG AS IT WAS WHITE STARTER TO TRACK HER DOWN TO  HAVE A RE PAINTED THE INSIDE OF THE HOOD WAS WHITEAND WHEN I  PULLED A WHEEL OFF THE HUB BEHIND THE WHEEL WERE WHITE SO I  KNEW THAT I HAD ONE OF THE ORIGINAL WHITE TRACTORS. THEY ARE WORTH  MORE THAN A STANDARD. RED FARMAL CUB AND WHEN PEOPLE FOUND  THAT OUT THEY STARTED PAINTING IT RED BUT YOU CAN'T THAT CAN BE  VERIFIED BY THE SERIAL NUMBER AND THIS IS ONE OF THE ORIGINAL WHITE  TRACTORS THAT TOBACCO FARMERS USED EM AND GOT A LOT WHERE THEY  DO ONE ROW AT A TIME. THAT ALSO PULLED A ONE BOTTOM PLOW AND  APPROXIMATELY A FOOT OR FIVE FOOT DISK.  THIS IS A 60 CUBIC INCH  WHICH DEVELOPED PROBABLY TEN HORSE POWER USE OUR PRODUCT  PROBABLY A GALLON PER HOUR UNDER FULL LOAD LIKE IF YOU WAS MOWING  HEAVY GRASS WITH IS IT'S A THREE SPEED TRANSMISSION AND ONE  REVERSE.  THAT WAS PROBABLY THE ONE WEAK POINT ON THE CUB, THEY  COULD HAVE USE ANOTHER GEAR OR TWO IN EM.  BUT OVERALL IT WAS A  VERY POPULAR LITTLE TRACTOR THANKS GREG. 

COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE
WELL TODAY'S COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE GOES TO  HOLY INNOCENTS EPISCOPAL CHURCH IN COMO,  MISSIPPI. THE CONGREGATION DATES ALL THE WAY  BACK TO 1872.   AS ALWAYS WE WANT TO LEARN ABOUT YOUR HOME  CHURCH AS WELL... SALUTES CAN BE SENT TO THE  ADDRESS ON THE SCREEN.  STAY WITH US - FROM THE  FARM PHOTOS ARE NEXT.

FROM THE FARM
WELCOME BACK. JESSICA WILCOX FROM OKLAHOMA SENT THIS PICTURE  OF THE SAND PLUMS BLOOMING IN THE SOUTHERN  PLAINS. HER STATE IS IN REAL NEED OF A RAIN. THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS MORE THAN 80  PERCENT OF THE STATE NOW IN SOME LEVEL OF  DROUGHT. A YEAR AGO IT WAS 14 PERCENT. IN MISSOURI IT'S NEARLY THE SAME STORY. CASNER FARMS IN CARROLTON MISSOURI SENT US THIS  PHOTO---THEY'RE TRYING TO GET EQUIPMENT CLEANED  UP AND TUNED UP SO PLANTERS WILL BE READY TO  ROLL IN SHORT ORDER. BUT AGAIN ALMOST 80 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS NOW  IN SOME LEVEL OF DROUGHT. A YEAR AGO IT WAS ZERO PERCENT. CHRIS VER MEER OF PELLA IOWA SAYS THE FIELDS ARE  DRY, AND IT'S A BEAUTIFUL DAY TO BE HAULING  MANURE. IS IT EVERA  GOOD DAY TO HAUL MANURE?   IF YOU HAVE A PICTURE OF VIDEO YOU'D LIKE TO SEND  IN, SEND THOSE TO MAILBAG-AT-U-S-FARM-REPORT-DOT- COM OR CHECK US OUT ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER.

CLOSE
FROM ALL OF US AT U.S. FARM REPORT, I'M TYNE  MORGAN. THANK YOU FOR WATCHING U-S FARM  REPORT.  BE SURE TO JOIN US RIGHT HERE AGAIN NEXT  WEEK, AS WE WORK TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION. HAVE  A GREAT WEEKEND, EVERYONE.  

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