USFR Weekly Recap - May 12-13, 2018

May 12, 2018 03:30 AM
 

TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
MAY 12-13, 2018

HEADLINES

WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT THIS MOTHER'S DAY WEEKEND.  I'M TYNE MORGAN, AND HERE'S WHAT'S IN  STORE OVER THE NEXT 60 MINUTES. THE BATTLE OVER THE R-F-S HAS SOME IN THE  INDUSTRY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT ONE  RECOMMENDATION WOULD DO TO DOMESTIC DEMAND. <THIS IDEA SHOULD DIE A QUICK DEATH> NAFTA NEGOTIATIONS MARCH ON, BUT BETS ARE OUT IF  < I'M CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC THAT THOUGH THEY'LL GET THE OUTLINE OF  AN AGREEMENT THIS MONTH.> AS THE DIRE SITUATION IN DAIRY CONTINUES, SOME  BEING FORCED TO LEAVE THE BUSINESS THEY'VE LOVED FOR GENERATIONS... <THE HARDEST THING I THINK IT WAS HE SAID TO ME WAS HE WAS AFRAID  HE WAS LETTING DOWN.  AND IN JOHN'S WORLD. <GOVERNMENT SURVEYS, ARE THEY WORTH IT?> 

RFS MEETING
NOW FOR THE NEWS, AFTER SEVERAL MEETINGS AND DEBATE AT THE WHITE HOUSE OVER THE R-F-S AND  ETHANOL, AN AGREEMENT WAS MADE WITH SENATOR  TED CRUZ OF TEXAS CALLING IT A "WIN-WIN" FOR BOTH  REFINERS AND FARMERS. BUT NOW SOME IN TEH  ETHANOL INDUSTRY AREN'T SO SURE IT'S A WIN FOR  AGRICULTURE.  THE MEETING INCLUDED SENATOR TED CRUZ OF TEXAS  AND SENATOR CHUCK GRASSLEY OF IOWA. IT APPEARS CONSENSUS WAS REACHED TO NOT PUT A  CAP ON RINS, AND THE ADMINTRATION VOICED  SUPPORT FOR ALLOWING THE SALE OF E15 YEAR ROUND.  THE ETHANOL INDUSTRY CALLING THE E15 MOVE A WIN  FOR ETHANOL. AND GRASSLEY SAYS EPA HAS HTE JURISDICTION TO MAKE IT HAPPEN. S <"PRUITT SAID WITHOUT HESITATION THAT WE CAN DO IT. MEANING EPA CAN PUT OU TTHE REGULATION,"> THERE ARE MIXED REACTION ON WHAT TYPE OF  DEMAND BOOM E15 WOULD CREATE IN THE U-S.  <"IF WE GO DOWN TO E-15 ACROSS THE COUNTRY, THAT COULD BE ANOTHER 7-8 BILLION  GALLONS OF BIO FUELS THAT'S BLENDED INTO THE  FUEL. FULL IMPLEMENTATION OF E-15 WOULD BE ANOTHER 2 BILLION  BUSHELS OF GRAIN DEMAND."> <"WE'RE GOING TO ALLOW E-15 TO BE SOLD YEAR-ROUND. THAT'S GREAT.  THAT'S SOMEWHAT OF A POSITIVE BUT REALLY, THAT ON ITS OWN, ACCORDING TO OUR CALCULATIONS, ADDS LESS THAN 1 PERCENT MORE  DEMAND BY ADDING E-15 YEAR ROUND,"> BUT DURING THE MEETING, TEH ADMINSTRATION AND  LEGISLATORS ALSO LOOKING INTO PLACING RINS ON  EXPORTS. BUT UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS' SCOTT IRWIN  SAYS IF PRUSUED, THAT MOVE COULD FACE LEGAL  CHALLENGES AS THE R-F-S AND RINS IS MEANT TO  INCREASE DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION.  <THIS IDEA SHOULD DIE A QUICK DEATH. IF IT DOESN'T, I CAN'T IMAGINE IT WOULDN'T DIE OF A QUICK LEGAL CHALLENGE BECAUSE IT'S SO  OBVIOUS.">  

FARM BILL
THE PRESIDENT CALLED FOR A MEETING ON THURSDAY OVER THE FARM BILL. BOTH SENATE AG COMMITTEE CHAIRMAN PAT ROBERTS  AND HOUSE AG COMMITTEE CHAIRMAN MIKE CONAWAY  WERE IN TEH MEETING.  CONTRARY TO PREVIOUS REPORTS, CONAWAY SAYS  THE PRESIDENT DID NOT THREATEN TO VETO THE FARM  BILL IF IT DOESN'T INCLUDE STRICTER WORK  REQUIREMENTS FOR SNAP. BUT IT'S THE ISSUE OVER FOOD THAT COULD BE A ROADBLOCK FOR GETTING THE HOUSE'S VERSION OF  THE BILL PASSED. IT'S SLATED TO GO UP FOR A VOTE  ON THE HOUSE FLOOR ENXT WEEK.  

WASDE
USDA'S LATEST WASDE REPORT PROJECTING A LARGE DROP FOR WORLD CORN STOCKS NEXT YEAR, AND A  MAJOR BITE OUT OF U-S SOYBEAN CARRYOUT. BUT THE  MARKET SEEMED UNPHASED BY WHAT SOME ANALYSTS  VIEWED AS BULLISH NUMBERS. . IT WAS A LOOK AT THE NEW CROP STOCKS, BOTH AT HOME AND AROUND THE GLOBE, THAT FUELED SOME  BULLISH RHETORIC THIS WEEK.  . NEW CROP CORN STOCKS IN THE U-S ARE PEGGED AT  ONE-POINT-SIX BILLION BUSHELS, DOWN 500 MILLION  BUSHELS.  . U.S. NEW-CROP SOYBEAN ENDING STOCKS FOR 2018/19  ARE PROJECTED AT 415 MILLION BUSHELS, DOWN 115  MILLION. . USDA IS EXPECTING A DECLINE IN WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION THIS YEAR. THEIR FORECAST IS ONE- POINT-BILLION BUSHELS, DOWN SIX PERCENT FROM A  YEAR AGO. . BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS, THE AG DEPARTMENT PUTS THE NATIONAL AVERAGE YIELD AT JUST OVER 48  BUSHELS AN ACRE, TWO BUSHELS LOWER THAN LAST  YEARS AVERAGE. . OKLAHOMA'S WHEAT YIELD IS 26 BUSHELS TO THE  ACRE. 

TRADE TALKS
TRADE TALKS BETWEEN THE U-S AND CHINA ARE SCHEUDLED TO PICK BACK UP NEXT WEEK, AS THE  CHINESE PRESIDENT'S TOP ECONOMIC AIDE IS SLATED  TO BE IN WASHINGTON.  THE PENDING MEETING FOLLOWS TWO DAYS OF TALKS  IN CHINA LAST WEEK. THOSE DISCUSSIONS RESULTING IN NO MAJOR BREAKTHROUGHS.  THE TWO COUNTRIES BOTH COMING TO THEIR  MEETINGS WITH THE OWN DEMANDS IN ORDER TO  RESUCE THE TRADE IMBALANCE. THOSE DEMANDS WILL INCLUDE AGRICULTURE,  CINDLUING TEH GOODS THREATENED TO BE HIT WITH  STEEP TAIRIFFS.  AS THREATS OF A 25 PERCENT TARIFF ON U-S PORK  IMPORTS INTO CHINA LOOM, THE COUNTRY IS UPPING  ITS INSPECTIONS OF U-S PORK. ACCORDING TO RUETERS, PORTS ARE INSPECTING  EVERY CARGO THAT ARRIVES. SOME SAY THE INCREASED SCRUTINY IS ACTUALLY A  WARNING SIGN FROM BEIJING OVER A POSSIBLE TRADE DISPUTE. THAT'S AS TALKS BETWEEN THE U-S AND CHINA ARE  ONGOING. THE COUNTRY ALSO ANNOUNCING IT WILL INPSECT  APPLES AND LOGS FROM THE U-S.   


MEAT EXPORTS
DESPITE THOSE POSSIBLE TARIFFS, U-S MEAT EXPORTS  ARE OFF TO A ROARING START. THE U-S MEAT EXPORT FEDERATION SAYS BEEF  EXPORT VALUES SET A NEW RECORD FOR HTE MONTH  OF MARCH. PORK EXPORT VALUES HIT THE SECOND- HIGHEST LEVEL ON RECORD.  THE MAJOR MOVER IS BEEF IS ASIA AND LATIN AMERICA.  FOR THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2018, BEEF EXPORTS ROSE  9 PERCENT COMPARED TO LAST YEAR. AND VALUES  JUMPED 19 PERCENT.  AND IT'S KORE AND LATIN AMERICA N WITH GROWING  APPETITES FOR PORK. U-S-M-E-F SHOWS BEEF  SHIPMENTS ROSE 1 PERCENT DURING THE FIRST  QUARTER OF THE YEAR. BUT LOOKING AT THE VALUE,  THAT JUMPED 8 PERCENT FROM 2017. AFTER THE DEVASTATING WILDFIRES RIPPED THROUGH  OKLAHOMA, OKLAHOMA STATE TALLYING THE IMPACT.  OSU LIVESTOCK SPECIALIST DERRELL PEEL SAYS THE  PRICE TAG NOW EXCEEDS 26 MILLION DOLLARS IN  DAMAGES FOR CATTLE OPERATIONS ALONE.  PEEL SAYS THAT INCLUDES 16 POINT 4 MILLION DOLLAR  FOR FENCE REPLACEMENT ND REPAIR. 1 POINT 4 MILLION FOR LIVESTOCK KILLED, AS WELL AS VET  COSTS. AND 1 POINT 6 MILLION DOLLARS FOR  EMERGENCY FEED.  <NOW WER'E RELALY DEALING WITH THE DEVASTATION OUT THERE, SO  WE'VE HAD A NUMBER OF LIVESTOCK KILLED. WE'VE HAD TREMENDOUS  ACREAGE AND FOREAGE BURNED ADN RESOURCES. SO THE AFTERMATH  NOW TURNS INTO THE CATTLE TAHT DID SURVIE EITHER HAVE TO BE RELCATED AND/OR THERE'S A LOT DEMAND FOR EMERGCY FORAGE RIGHT NOW, SO A LOT OF HAY SUPPLIES MOVING IN AND LONGERTERM WE'VE  GOT A LOT OF FENCE TO REBUILD AND OBVIOUSLY, FACILITIES AND  HOUESES, FAMILIES LIVES DISRUPTED BY THIS> PEEL SAYS AREAS OF OKLAHOMA HAVE SEEN SOME RAIN, BUT THE DROUGHT HASN'T WANED. HE SAYS IT'S IMPORTANT FOR LIVESTOCK PRODUCERS  TO HAVE A PLAN TO SURVIVE THE DROUGHT, INSTEAD  OF USING A WAIT AND SEE STRATEGY RIGHT NOW.  

TEASE
STILL TO COME, HOW MUCH MORE RAIN COULD SWEEP THE COUNTRY NEXT WEEK, AND WILL IT HIT SOME OF  THE AREAS THAT NEED IT MOST?  PLUS, BREAKING DOWN THE WASDE REPORT HTIS  MOTHER'S DAY WEEKEND WITH SUE MARTIN AND NAOMI  BLOHM. THAT'S AHEAD.  

WEATHER
WELCOME BACK, IT'S TIME NOW TO CHECK WEATHER WITH .METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN. MIKE, WE SAW  SOME BIG RAIN MAKERS THIS WEEK. WHAT'S ON TAP  FOR YOUR POST-MOTHER'S DAY FORECAST?  TYNE LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY B RAINMAKER FOR THE SOUTHEAST  AND MID-ATLANTIC AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK. WE'LL BE  SHOWING YOU THAT COMING UP IN THE MEANTIME DROUGHT MONITOR  DOESN'T GET ANY BETTER. SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA TEXAS BACK INTO THE FOUR CORNER REGION THAT'S EVOLVED  A LITTLE BIT BUT IT HASN'T GOTTEN A WHOLE LOT WORSE. IT JUST HASN'T  REALLY BEEN IMPROVING A WHOLE LOT EVEN WITH SOME SPOTTY RAIN  OCCASIONALLY BUT LET'S GO BACK A MONTH. YOU CAN SEE WE ARE  ALREADY SEEING SOME OF THIS EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT. IT HAS  EXPANDED A LITTLE BIT IN PARTS OF THE FAR WESTERN PLAINS AND INTO  THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BUT NOT BY A LOT. AS YOU CAN SEE IT'S  GENERALLY THAT SAME AREA. IT'S GOTTEN A LITTLE BETTER IN THE NORTHERN  PLAINS AND A LITTLE BETTER IN THE SOUTHEAST AND WITH THIS SYSTEM  COMING IN THIS WEEK YOU'RE PROBABLY GOING TO SEE A LOT OF THAT DROUGHT TEND TO IMPROVE AS WELL IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF  THE COUNTRY. HERE'S OUR JET STREAM AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS  COMING WEEK. AND YOU CAN SEE A CUTOFF LOW IN THE WEST THAT'LL PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME WE'LL SEE OCCASIONAL COOL AIR COMING INTO THE GREAT LAKES  AND THE NORTHEAST. IT'S GOING TO STAY PRETTY HOT IN THE SOUTH EAST  AND FOR THE MOST PART OUT WEST ALTHOUGH YOU DO HAVE THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE WEEK TRYING TO COME IN AND THAT  MAY ADD SOME MOISTURE TO SOME OF THOSE DROUGHT AREAS SO THAT  COULD BE SOME GOOD NEWS AS WE HEAD INTO THAT TIMEFRAME. WE'LL BE WATCHING THAT FOR YOU.  BUT LET'S GO DAY BY DAY AND YOU CAN SEE ON MONDAY WE'RE  GOING TO HAVE THE STATIONARY FRONT REALLY SEPARATING SOME PRETTY  COOL AIR TO THE NORTH VERY WARM AIR TO THE SOUTH AND THERE WILL BE  SOME AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS KIND OF RIDING ALONG  THIS FRONT. AND HERE'S A TROPICAL LIKE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHEAST SO FLORIDA GETTING SOME OF THAT MOISTURE BY WEDNESDAY THEN THAT  SYSTEM ONLY SLOWLY MOVING ON UP INTO GEORGIA PARTS OF EASTERN  ALABAMA WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA ON UP INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SYSTEM RIDING ALONG THIS STATIONARY FRONT  INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE PRODUCING SOME  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. AND YOU CAN SEE A  STATIONARY FRONT BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES  HEADING THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN WE CAN SEE THAT SYSTEM KIND OF  THE COMBINATION OF THAT TROPICAL SYSTEM AND THE LOW COMING ACROSS THE PLAIN STATES MID-ATLANTIC WITH SOME SHOWERS AND  THUNDERSTORMS THERE. COLD FRONT DOWN INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN  ALABAMA AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI IN ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH SOME SHOWERS AND  THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT PART OF THE COUNTRY. LET'S CHECK OUT THE 30  DAY OUTLOOK FOR TEMPERATURES YOU CAN SEE ABOVE NORMAL FROM IOWA WELL WESTERN MISSOURI ALL THE WAY BACK THROUGH THE WESTERN  STATES. SO PRETTY PRETTY WARM MONTH AHEAD. IT LOOKS LIKE BELOW  NORMAL ONLY FOR THE FAR NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FAR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OTHERWISE WE'RE GOING NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE  CENTRAL AND EASTERN CORN BELT 30 DAY OUTLOOK FOR PRECIPITATION.  WE'RE HOPING FOR A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN A LITTLE BIT.  SO A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE INTO THESE DROUGHT AREAS OF  TEXAS OKLAHOMA BACK INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MAYBE NOT  ENOUGH BUT IT MIGHT HELP GET YOU STARTED. AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL ALSO ACROSS MUCH OF THE CORN BELT TOWARD PENNSYLVANIA NEAR  NORMAL IN THE SOUTHEAST NORTHEAST AND BELOW NORMAL LOOKS LIKE  OFF THE WEST COAST TIME. ALL RIGHT. THANKS SO MUCH MIKE.  COMING UP THIS MOTHER'S DAY WEEKEND NAOMI AND SUE MARTIN  ARE WITH ME TO BREAK DOWN THE MARKETS. WE'VE RECEIVED A  WASDE REPORT THAT PROGRESS. WHY DID THE TRAINER ACT THAT WAY.  WE'LL FIND OUT NEXT ON U.S. FARM REPORT  

ROUNDTABLE 1
ALL RIGHT WELCOME BACK TO U.S. FARM REPORT THIS MOTHER'S DAY WEEKEND. HAPPY MOTHER'S DAY TO BOTH OF YOU.  SAME TO YOU. TIME IS NOT A COINCIDENCE THAT I HAVE TWO MOMS  ON THE PANEL WITH ME. I THOUGHT WHY NOT CELEBRATE WITH A COUPLE MOMS AND ANALYSTS. WELL WE DO HAVE A LOT TO TALK ABOUT WAS THE  REPORT RELEASED ON FRIDAY FROM USDA. NOW YOU AND YOU START US  OFF REALLY WHAT WAS THE BIGGEST SURPRISE FOR YOU LOOKING AT THAT REPORT. I WAS ENCOURAGED LOOKING AT THE NEW CROP FUNDAMENTALS  THAT ENDING STOCKS ARE INDEED AS SMALL AS WE ARE ANTICIPATING  THEM TO BECOME. SO THAT WAS NICE TO SEE THE USDA CONFIRM  WHAT WE'VE ALL BEEN SUSPECTING FOR THE PAST TWO MONTHS. MY  BIGGEST SURPRISE ACTUALLY WAS FOR SOYBEANS AND LOOKING AT  EXPORTS THEY INCREASED EXPORTS FOR NEXT YEAR. AND I WAS REALLY ENCOURAGED BY THAT. TO ME IT SAYS THAT THE USDA IS FEELING  FAVORABLE ABOUT NEGOTIATIONS WITH CHINA AND THEY PUT IT ON  PAPER. WE'LL GET INTO THAT A LITTLE BIT MORE BECAUSE WE KNOW THAT THAT TRADE WORRIES KIND OF ARE STILL LOOMING. BUT WHEN YOU LOOK AT  THIS REPORT I MEAN YOU LOOK AT THE 1819 MARKET AND YOU'RE REALLY  LOOKING AT NEW CROP LIKE NAOMI MENTIONED WORLD CORN CARRY OUT BELOW AVERAGE TRADE GUESS U.S. SOYBEAN CARRY OUT A BIG DROP  COMPARED TO THE AVERAGE TRADE GAS. AND SO THESE NUMBERS  SEEM TO BE BULLISH WHEN YOU LOOKED AT PAPER. WELL I THINK THEY ARE BULLISH. EVEN THE USDA THE AVERAGE FARM PRICE THEY RAISED  THE HIGH END OF THE AVERAGE FARM PRICE FOR NEW CROP BEANS BY.  I THINK THE NUMBER WAS 11 DOLLARS 30 CENTS SO I WANT TO  SAY LIKE A DOLLAR SEVENTY FROM THE HIGHEST IT HAD BEEN BEFORE SO  THAT'S A PRETTY IMPRESSIVE THING. SO OBVIOUSLY THE USDA IS A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC. BUT THE OTHER THING I THOUGHT WAS IMPRESSIVE WAS IN  THE CORN ON GLOBAL STOCKS COMING DOWN 35 MILLION METRIC TONS.  THAT WAS A BIG DROP OF COURSE. TWENTY OF THAT IS IN CHINA. WE'LL GET INTO CHINA IN A SECOND TOO. BUT YOU MENTIONED USDA  OPTIMISTIC. ARE THEY TOO OPTIMISTIC. NAOMI I THINK RIGHT NOW THEY  ARE APPROPRIATELY OPTIMISTIC. WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT IT FOR MONTHS AS FAR AS GLOBAL DEMAND BEING SO STRONG CHINESE  DEMAND BEING SO STRONG ETHANOL DEMAND BECOMING STRONGER.  SO IT'S ALL THERE AND THE U.S. STATE A REALLY NICE JOB OF USING TREND LINE YIELDS FOR NEXT YEAR. AND SO WE'RE GOING TO BE USING  THOSE TREND LINE YIELDS FOR PROBABLY TWO MONTHS UNTIL THE WEATHER  PATTERNS SUGGEST OTHERWISE. BUT WHAT THIS REPORT HAS DONE IS SET  US UP FOR SUPPORTIVE PRICES AND WE JUST LET THE WEATHER DICTATE  FROM HERE POTENTIALLY HOW HIGH THE MARKET COULD GO. BUT WHEN  YOU LOOK AT THESE I MEAN IT DID SEEM LIKE A FAIRLY BULLISH REPORT  YET WE DIDN'T SEE ANY REALLY HUGE MARKET MOVERS. WE JUST WE SAW DOUBLE DIGIT GAINS IN THE SWEEPINGS FOR JUST OVER 10 CENTS  AND INITIALLY YOU KNOW WHY DIDN'T THE TRADE RESPOND EVEN BIG.  I THINK IT'S BECAUSE OF THE OVERSHADOWING OF THE TRADE TALKS THAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN THIS NEXT WEEK AND THEN THE OTHER IN THE  U.S. AND THEN I THINK ON TOP OF IT LOOKING AT THE BIG CROPS IN BRAZIL  FOR SOYBEANS AND BUT YET ON THE FLIP SIDE WE'VE GOT TO KEEP IN MIND THERE'S MORE TALK NOW ALL OF A SUDDEN HOW WE'VE GOT  BECAUSE OF ALL THESE HEAVY RAINS IN ARGENTINA IT'S TAKING THE WHAT  WAS EXPECTED AT LEAST BE HALFWAY DECENT. YOU'RE HEARING ABOUT A DROP SPROUTING ALL OF THAT AND QUALITY GOING DOWN. SO ALL OF A  SUDDEN IT'S LIKE THAT CROPS BEING RATCHETED DOWN AGAIN. AND SO I  THINK THAT WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE BEAN MARKET WE HAVE TO KEEP ONE THING IN MIND. LAST YEAR THE MARKET HAD AN INSIDE RANGE  FROM THE YEAR BEFORE. AND SO I THINK THE HIGHER SIDE OF THAT IS  GOING TO COME OUT WITH THE CORN MARKET ALSO PULLING IT. BUT HOW LONG DO WE HAVE TO WAIT FOR THAT. WELL SEASONALLY THE  MARKETPLACE RIGHT NOW NORMALLY TRADES IN THAT A LITTLE BIT OF A TIGHT  SIDEWAYS PATTERN FOR THE REST OF MAY AND IT'S IN JUNE WHEN THE MARKET WOULD HAVE SOME SORT OF A SEASONAL RALLY HIGHER  DEPENDING ON WEATHER. BUT THE THING TO REMEMBER THAT THOSE  JUNE RALLIES OR MAYBE EVEN THE EARLY JULY RALLIES ARE YOUR BEST TIMES TO PRICE YOUR CRAP FOR OLD CROP A NEW CROP AND SO MAKE  SURE THAT YOU ARE RESPONDING AND LOCKING SALES IN AT THAT TIME  REALLY QUICKLY. YOU MENTIONED SOUTH AMERICA WE DID RECEIVE SOME UPDATED NUMBERS FROM SOUTH AMERICA OVERALL WHEN YOU  LOOK AT ARGENTINA AND BRAZIL BOTH CORN AND BEANS A BETTER CROP  THAN EXPECTED. NOT AS GOOD AS EXPECTED. WHAT WE SEE. WELL FOR BRAZIL THE BEANS ARE BIG AND THERE'S NO DOUBT ABOUT IT. AS WE  THOUGHT IT WOULD BE BUT THE SECOND CROP CORN IS WHAT'S GETTING  REDUCED A LITTLE BIT.  AND IN ARGENTINA THEY JUST SUFFERED BECAUSE OF THE DROUGHT. SO THEIR NUMBERS WERE REDUCED A LITTLE BIT FROM YEAR  AGO LEVELS BUT THAT'S WHAT'S KEPT OUR MARKET PRICES UP. THEY  HAVEN'T HAD THE BEST CROP. ALL RIGHT WELL WE DID SEE SOME UPDATES TO WHEAT. WE NEED TO GET INTO CHINA AS WELL SOME  LIVESTOCK. SO WE NEED TO TAKE A QUICK BREAK. WE'LL BE BACK WITH  MORE U.S. FARM REPORTING THEN IN THE SECOND HALF HOUR WE'LL GET  IN MORE FROM THE WASDE REPORT THIS WEEK.  

JOHN’S WORLD
THE WHITE HOUSE HOLDING A MEETING ON TEH FARM BILL THIS WEEK, WITH REPROTS THAT THE PRESIDENT  WANTED TO DISCUSS TIMELINE.  BUT WHAT ARE SOME OF THE LONG-TERM IMPLCIATIONS  OF TEH FARM BILL? HERE'S JOHN PHIPPS.  LAST WEEK TYNE AND THE FARM REPORT CREW DID A GREAT JOB OF  OUTLINING THE PROBLEMS AND PROMISES OF THE NEW FARM BILL, ESPECIALLY THE POLITICS AND HOW THAT ARENA IS DIFFERENT THIS TIME  AROUND. THIS WEEK IT MIGHT BE HELPFUL IF I COULD SHED SOME LIGHT  ON THE IMPLICATIONS AND LONG-TERM CONSEQUENCES OF THE PROPOSED LEGISLATION. SO I'VE BEEN READING UP AND CHECKING  MEDIA REPORTS ON THE TRACTOR SO I COULD DO JUST THAT. MAYBE IT'S BECAUSE WE AREN'T DONE PLANTING AND MAY HAVE TO  WAIT FOR RAIN FOR THE REST OF THE BEANS, BUT DESPITE MY SERIOUS  EFFORT, I JUST CAN'T GET INTO FARM BILL STUFF. I'M NOT ALONE. NOBODY AT  CHURCH OR THE SEED WAREHOUSE DID MORE THAN SHRUG WHEN I  ASKED THEM WHAT THEY EXPECTED. TO BE FAIR, FOR CORN AND BEAN GROWERS AROUND HERE, AS LONG AS SIRENS DON'T GO OFF ON  SUBSIDIZED CROP INSURANCE, I DON'T THINK WE HAVE MUCH IN THE  WAY OF HIGHER HOPES. DAIRY AND COTTON PRODUCERS HAVE ALREADY GOTTEN A TEMPORARY PATCH FOR THEIR IMMEDIATE PROBLEMS, SO THERE  JUST ISN'T MUCH NOISE COMING FROM FARMERS. THE ATTENTION SHOULD BE ON HOW THE BILL GETS PASSED. WHILE  CUTTING OR SEPARATING SNAP FOOD ASSISTANCE IS ALWAYS A PRIORITY  FOR CONSERVATIVES, THIS YEAR SEEMS LIKE A STIFFER TEST OF THE POLITICAL STRATEGY THAT LINKS THE TWO TO GET VOTES FOR AG TITLES. AND  A NEW WRINKLE IS THE CHANCE THE DEPARTMENT OF AG COULD GET  INVOLVED IN SELLING HEALTH AFFORDABLE HEALTH INSURANCE - TO HEALTHY PEOPLE. I'LL TALK MORE ABOUT THIS LATER. THEN IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRESIDENT WILL WANT SOME NEW CUTS AS WELL. THE BOTTOM LINE IS I  THINK MANY OF US ARE PERHAPS UNWISELY TUNING OUT ALL THE MESSY  DETAILS, WHICH ARE HARD TO FOLLOW AND OFTEN UNSETTLING. AS LONG AS CROP PRICES STAY AT THEIR UNEXPECTED NOT-TOO-BAD LEVELS, WE  COULD KEEP SKIMMING THE FARM BILL NEWS, AND BE IN FOR A RUDE AWAKENING. THANKS, JOHN. OUR SOURCES SAY IF THE G-O-P CAN  DRUM UP ENOUGH VOTES, THE CHAMBER IS EXPECTED  TO VOTE ON TEH FARM BILL AS EARLY AS NEXT WEEK.  STILL TO COME MACHINERY PETE   

TRACTOR TALES
WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES FOLKS THIS WEEK WE'RE HEADED TO  EASTERN KANSAS TO CHECK OUT A LITTLE RED POWER. LLOYD ROBYNS OR  BUB AS HIS FRIENDS CALL HIM IS RETIRED BUT ENJOY SHOWING OFF HIS  COLLECTION OF TRACTORS.  OH A COUPLE OF TRACTORS THAT I'VE RESTORED.  IN RECENT YEARS THE FRONT ONE HERE IS A INTERNATIONAL ITS GOT A RARE OPTION ON THERE. THE ELWOOD FRONT WHEEL ASSIST. I HAVEN'T SEEN IT  BEFORE ON THIS PARTICULAR MODEL BUT QUITE RARE FOR 966 AND VERY  POPULAR TRACTOR A LOT OF THOSE OUT THERE WE DID PUT IN A NEW WIRING HARNESS THAT WIRING WAS EAT UP PRETTY BAD. NEW ALTERNATER  JUST SOME SEALS AND STUFF TO DROP SOME LEAKS BUT REALLY NOTHING  MAJOR THAT RATED ABOUT 90 91 HORSEPOWER. I THINK IS THE FACTORY RATING WHEN WHEN IT CAME OUT THEY'RE NOT AND ARE NOT A BIG  TRACTOR BY THE ASCENSION IMAGINATION THERE. JUST MORE OF A UTILITY I DON'T KNOW THEY USED THE HYDROSTAT IT WAS PROBABLY IT HAD A  LOADER ON IT WHEN I BOUGHT IT ITS PRETTY LOCAL IS WITHIN 30 MILES OF  HERE BOUGHT IT FROM ANOTHER FARMER.  

TEASE
STILL TO COME, STRUGGLING MILK PRICES ARE A STARK REALITY FOR FAMILY FARMERS TRYING TO  SURVIVE... LATER ON THE SHOW, ONE FAMILY'S  FARMING LEGACY IS FORCED TO COME TO A CLOSE. 

FARM JOURNAL REPORT
A PENDING NAFTA 2 POINT 0 DEAL IS STILL IN THE WORK.  BUT JUST LAST WEEK, FOOD MARKETIN INSTITUTE- ALONG WITH OTHER RETAIL TRADE GROUPS- RELEASED A REPORT THAT SHOWED WITHOUT NAFTA, THE U-S  COULD FACE 2 POITN 75 BILLION DOLLARS IN HIGHER  TARIFFS FOR FOOD AND DRINKS.  BUT THOSE IN THE DAIRY INDUSTRY ARE HOLDING OUT  HOPE... THAT NOT ONLY NAFTA 2 POINT 0  NEGOTIATIONS WILL COME TO A CLOSE SOON, BUT  THAT A DAIRY DEAL WILL MAKE THE CUT.  AND THAT'S THIS WEEK'S FARM JOURNAL REPORT.  AS NAFTA NEGOTIATIONS RACE TO THE FINISH LINE,  LEAD NEGOTIATERS MET IN WASHINGTON THIS WEEK TO WORK THROUGH THE TOUGH ISSUES THAT REMAIN.  THAT'S AS TRADE TALKS WITH CHINA ARE EXPECTED TO  PICK BACK UP NEXT WEEK.  < SO I THINK WHAT'S HAPPENING WITH CHINA WILL ALSO BE THE THING  THAT DRIVES NAFTA 2.0 TO CONCLUSION, BECAUSE I THINK THIS ADMINISTRATION WILL WANT TO REMOVE SOME OF THESE TRADE ISSUES  THAT AFFECT AGRICULTURE > DESPITE THE TALKS SPANNING OVER 8 MONTHS, SOME  IN WASHINGTON THINK A NAFTA 2.0 DEAL WILL BE REACHED.  < I'M CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC THAT THOUGH THEY'LL GET THE OUTLINE OF  AN AGREEMENT THIS MONTH.> WHILE THE U-S AND MEXICO MADE POSSIBLE PROGRESS  ON THE AUTIO ISSUE, IT'S THE CONTENTIOUS ISSUE OVER DAIRY THAT'S STILL A WEDGE BETWEEN THE U-S  AND CANADA. < ON NAFTA I BELIEVE DAIRY WILL BE PROBABLY ONE OF THE LAST  THINGS IT'S ADDRESSED BUT I REMAIN OPTIMISTIC THAT WE'LL GET  SOMETHING DONE AND CLASS 7.> DYKES- AMONG OTHERS WITHIN IN THE U-S DAIRY  INDUSTRY- HAVE HAD A UNIFIED VOICE FROM THE  BEGINNING... CANADA'S CLASS 7 MILK PRICING  STRUCTURE NEEDS TO BE FIXED.  < I THINK WE'VE MADE HEADWAY OF HIGHLIGHTING THE SIGNIFICANCE OF  CLASS 7 AND WE HAVE THAT ON THE MINDS OF THIS ADMINISTRATION.> CANADA ESTABLISHED THE CLASS 7 PRICING FOR MILK  POWEDER IN 2016. IT PLACED HEFTY TARIFFS ON EXPORTS, AND U.S. DAIRY LEADERS LIKE DYKES CLAIM  THAT ALLOWED CANADIAN PRODUCERS TO SELL IT  CHEAPER TO OTHER COUNTRIES.   IN THE SHORT RUN, WE HAVE THE HIGHEST COST MILK PRODUCER IN THE  WORLD UNDERCUTTING US DUMPING SKIM MILK POWDERS ON THE WORLD MARKET AND WE'RE LOSING SALES IN THIRD COUNTRY MARKETS. THEY ARE PUTTING SKIM MILK POWDER ON THE GROUND IN MEXICO AT 3 CENTS A  POUND CHEAPER THAN WE CAN FROM THE US THAT THIS TELLS YOU  THERE'S AN ISSUE THERE> DYKES SAYS THAT 3 CENTS A POUND DIFFERENCE IS  REDUCING APPETITIES FOR U-S DAIRY.  < I THINK IT'S IMPORTANT TO POINT OUT YOU KNOW I WAS LOOKING AT  SOME STATISTICS AND CHEESE PRODUCTION LAST YEAR WAS UP ABOUT 6 OR 7 PERCENT IN CANADA. AND YET IMPORTS OF MILK PROTEIN  ONCENTRATE FROM THE UNITED STATES WERE DOWN 38 PERCENT. SO  IT'S CLEAR THIS CLASS 7 PRICING ISSUE HAS HAD AN IMPACT ON THE U.S. DAIRY INDUSTRY> WHILE IT'S ALREADY IMPACTING U-S DAIRY MARKETS,  DYKES SAYS THE IT'S ALSO ATTRACTING CAPITAL IN  CANADA BECUASE IT'S A LOW-COST INPUT.  <LONGER TERM BECAUSE THOSE PRICING IMPACT OF CLASS 7 THERE'S FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND BUILDING INFRASTRUCTURE, INFANT  FORMULA PLANT IN CANADA OTHER INVESTMENTS ACROSS CANADA, .> THE PRESIDENT TWEETING IN APRIL OF LAST YEAR  THAT "CANADA HAS MADE BUSINESS FOR OUR DAIRY  FARMERS IN WISCONSIN AND OTHER BORDERS STATES  VERY DIFFICULT. WE WILL NOT STAND FOR THIS.  WATCH!" I RECENTLY SAT DOWN WITH RAY STARLING, SPECIAL ASSISTANT THE PRESIDENT FOR AGRICULTURE AND  AGRIUCLTURAL TRADE. HE SAYS THE PRESIDENT STILL  HAS A DAIRY DEAL TOP OF MIND.  < BUT WHEN IT COMES TO MILK AND CLASS 7 SPECIFICALLY WITH  CANADA DO YOU THINK WE CAN GET A LAST MINUTE PUSH TO GET THIS FIXED IN NAFTA 2.0? WELL THERE'S NO DOUBT, THE WAY YOU PHRASED  THE QUESTION WILL THERE BE A LAST MINUTE PUSH TO TRY TO GET THIS THIS  ISSUE ADDRESSED. WE ARE VERY CONFIDENT THAT AMBASSADOR LIGHTHIZER HAS AGRICULTURE'S BEST INTERESTS AT HEART. WE ARE ALSO  VERY CONFIDENT THAT CANADA KNOWS THAT THIS IS AN ISSUE THAT WE  CARE DEEPLY ABOUT. SO, I DON'T THINK I'M GIVING AWAY THE FARM WHEN I SAY CANADA WILL MAKE US WORK FOR THIS. THEY WILL WAIT TO  THE LAST MINUTE ON THIS TOPIC,> WHILE BOTH THE PRESIDENT AND U-S TRADE AMBASSADOR ROBERT LIGHTHIZER ARE FOCUSED ON  DAIRY, SO ARE LEADERS IN CANADA. CANADIAN BASED REAL AGRICULTURE RADIO HOST  SHAUN HANEY SAYS THE POLITICAL SUPPORT IN CANADA FROM BOTH LEGISLATORS AND THE DAIRY  INDUSTRY. <THE DAIRY LOBBY AND THG CANADIAN GOVERNMETN REALL PROVING THE  SAME DISCUSSION PIOTNS OF CANADA IS NOT THE SOLUTION TO U.S.  DAIRY SUPPLY ISSUES> HE SAYS THOSE LEADERS CONTINUE TO PLEDGE TO FULLY SUPPORT SUPPLY MANAGEMENT AND CLASS 7  PRICING. <THERE'S SO MUCH DESIRE TO PROTECT SUPPLY MANAGEMENT IN  CANADA BECASUE IT'S A SYSTEM WORTH PROTECTING. HE MAINSTAINED  THAT SUPPLY MANGEMENT IN CANADA IS ONE OF HTE OLNLY SYSTEMS GLOBALLY THAT'S TRULY TRULY THRIVING. > WHILE THE PUSH ON BOTH SIDES IS FOR OPPOSITE  OUTCOMES, RUSSELL SAYS NAFTA IS THE BEST VEHCLE  TO GET CANADA'S CLASS 7 PRICING SYSTEM FIXED.  < IF IT'S NOT PART OF NAFTA, I'M NOT OPTIMISTIC WE'RE GOING TO GET CHANGES ANYTIME SOON.> WHILE DYKES IS HOPEFUL DAIRY WONT' GET  OVERLOOKED IN NAFTA, HE SAYS THERE COULD BE  OTHER MEANS FOR ADDRESSING THE ISSUE.  < IT DEFIES LOGIC WHEN THE HIGHEST COST PRODUCER IN THE WORLD CAN LAND SKIM MILK POWDER IN MEXICO THREE CENTS A POUND CHEAPER  WE CAN FROM THE U.S.. SO JUST ON THE SURFACE OF IT WITHOUT DIGGING  INTO TRADE LAW THAT THERE HAS TO BE CROSS SUBSIDISATION, THERE HAS  TO BE DUMPING, THERE HAS TO BE SOME VIOLATION OF TRADE LAW TO BE  ABLE TO DO THAT.>BUT THE INDUSTRY HOPEFUL CREATING A LEVEL  PLAYING FIELD WITHIN NAFTA WILL ALSO HELP DRIVE   DAIRY DEMAND AROUND THE GLOBE.   THE REALITY IS WITHOUT ANY MAJOR  BREAKTHROUGHS WITH NAFTA TALKS THIS WEEK, IT'S A  BATTLE AGAINST THE CALENDAR. STARLING A POINTED OUT THAT DUE TO THE TRADE PROMOTION AUTHORITY- AND THE NEED FO RCONGRESS TO SIGN OFF ON THE DEAL, THE ADMINSTRATION WOULD NEED TO HAVE NAFTA 2 POINT  0 DEAL SOON.  NEXT UP, FROM POLICY TO THE FARM. IT'S A DIRE  SITUATION IN DAIRY FORCING SOME DAIRY FARMERS TO  SAY GOOD BYE TO A BUSINESS AND A LIFE THEY LOVE.  WE'LL HAVE THE STORY NEXT.  

DAIRY’S DIRE SITUATION
WE'VE COVERED ITON OUR SHOW BEFORE.   THE DIRE SITUATION IN DAIRY MEANS MANY FAMILY FARMS ARE STRUGGLING TO SURVIVE. AND WHEN DAIRYING IS IN YOUR BLOOD, THE SITUATION  IS FORCING SOME TO MAKE ONE OF THE MOST DIFFICULT DECISIONS OF THEIR LIFE. HERE'S KARE 11'S BOY HUPPERT WITH A STORY THAT'S  NOT ONLY POWERFUL, BUT PERSONAL.<AUCTION 13 14> BUILT OVER GENERATIONS, <AUCTION>  DISMANTLED IN MINUTES. <FOURTEEN HUNDRED> THE END HAS COME  OUT FOR A SMALL FAMILY DAIRY FARM. <SOLD> I'VE COVERED THIS STORY  BEFORE BUT THIS TIME IT'S PERSONAL. <AUCTION> THIS TIME IT'S THE FAMILY FARM ON WHICH I GREW UP. THE CENTURY OLD BARN IN WHICH  MY GRANDFATHER MILK COWS AND AFTER THAT MY MILK PROMOTING  FATHER. WITH HIS PAINTED UP PICKUP AND THAT GUY ALWAYS IN A HURRY IN THE SAME BARN. THAT'S MY YOUNGER BROTHER JACK. IT WAS MY  THIRD DAY DOWN HERE HELPING JAY A WEEK BEFORE THE AUCTION. I  STOPPED BY. I'LL TELL YOU WHY I CAUGHT ME BY SURPRISE AND FOUND DENNIS, JAY'S NEIGHBOR HELPING READY A TRACTORS FOR THE SALE. I  THOUGHT THEY'D BE FARMING FOR 10 MORE YEARS. YOU'RE SO GOOD AT  IT AND YOU ALWAYS SEEM TO LOVE IT. JAY DID. IT WAS A BRAND NEW LISA TOO JAY'S WIFE WHO'S ABOUT TO GET A BARN KISS. BOTH GREW UP  ON DAIRY FARMS. THAT'S THEM ON THE COVER OF FARM JOURNAL  MAGAZINE. HIGH SCHOOL SWEETHEARTS WHO WENT ON TO HAVE THE HIGHEST PRODUCING DAIRY HERD IN PIERCE COUNTY SEVEN YEARS IN A  ROW. NEVER EXPECTING IN THEIR EARLY 50S TO BE STANDING HERE AND  SAYING THIS I DON'T WANT TO STAY ANY MORE. IT'S BEEN ROUGHLY THREE YEARS SINCE MILK PRICES TANKED SAYS LAST PICKOFF ACCELERATING A  TREND THAT SCATTERED THE COUNTRYSIDE WITH EMPTY BARNS. I'VE GOT A  NEIGHBOR DOWN THE ROAD THREE MILES THIS WAY.  THAT'S ALL THOSE COWS LAST FRIDAY GUY DOWN THE ROAD A COUPLE OF MILES THAT WAY IS SELLING HIS COWS NEXT WEEK. THE  PRICES ARE POOR IT'S JUST BREAKING-EVEN. WHY. WHY KEEP MILKING  THEM COMBINED WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA ARE LOSING DAIRY FARMS  AT THE RATE OF 15 A WEEK. MOST OF THEM SMALL DAIRIES LIKE JAY AND  LISAA'S 60 COWN HERD. HI LUCY YOU'RE A GOOD GIRL. REPLACED BY  DAIRIES WITH THOUSANDS OF COWS MILK INCREASINGLY BY ROBOTS. DID YOU ALREADY WATCH EEDA? JAY AND LISA CAN'T MATCH THE 5000  COW HERD IN SCALE AND EFFICIENCY. THAT'S ROXI SHE'S THE BARN CAT,  AND ROBOTS CAN'T FORM RELATIONSHIPS. THIS IS SSDHSA. LIKE THIS. YOU GO GET THAT COWS SOME HEY THAT'S NOT EATING. YEAH I NOTICED  THAT TOO. OUTSIDE JAY'S TRACTORS ARE LINED UP FOR THE SALE. THE  NEWEST AMONG THEM IS 27 YEARS OLD. NEW TRACTORS HAVE TRIPLED IN PRICE WHILE MILK PRICES HAVE SLID BACK THREE DECADES. SO ON JAY  SOLDIERED WITH THE OLD HE HAS ALWAYS SAID SINCE THE DAY THAT WE  WERE MARRIED THAT HE WOULD NEVER EVER LET US GO FAR BEHIND BEHIND THAT WE COULDN'T GET OUT. THAT'S WHERE WE ARE AT. M HARD  TO KEEP WORKING 15 HOUR DAYS AND SEVEN DAY WEEKS AND 7 DAYS  WEEKS WHEN RETURNS ARE SO THIN. THE HARDEST THING I THINK IT WAS HE SAID TO ME WAS HE WAS AFRAID HE WAS LETTING DOWN. WAS AND  OH I DON'T FEEL THAT WAY AT ALL AND YOU KNOW WHEN I WANT HIM TO FEEL GOOD AND BE HAPPY.  SO FROM OUR GRANDPA TO OUR FATHER TO JAY AND LISA. A THIRD  GENERATION DAIRY FARM. <AUCTION> WHEN MY MAMA COME HERE  MAMA. IT'S AN AREA THAT'S ON THE WAY OUT. UNFORTUNATELY THE SMALL FAMILY FARM ERAS DON'T END WITHOUT CONSEQUENCES. WE'VE BEEN  TOGETHER DOING THIS FARMING THING FOR THIRTY YEARS YET LISA N.J. ARE  LUCKIER THAN SOME. THEY'LL GET OUT WITH THEIR HOME AND STILL OWN  THE LAND. OUR GRANDFATHER PURCHASED IN THE 1930S A CROP FARMER  HAS RENTED IT AND JAY HAS TAKEN THE JOB AT A FACTORY WAS FINE. IT WAS A GREAT LIFE BUT THERE'S BETTER THINGS OUT THERE. THE HERD BUILT  OVER THREE GENERATIONS OF OUR FAMILY WILL BE SCATTERED AMONG  OTHER DAIRIES WHOSE OWNERS ARE STILL HOPING FOR A TURNAROUND. A  SIGN OF THE TIMES WALMART VERSUS THE FIVE AND DIME AND ANOTHER EMPTY BAR LEFT BEHIND. SO YEAH NO REASON TO STAY BOYD HUPPERT,  KARE 11 NEWS. RIVER FALLS WISCONSIN.  WOW. THANKS, BOYD. WE'VE ALSO SHARED THE LINK TO  BOYD'S STORY ON OUR U-S FARM REPORT FACEBOOK  PAGE.  NEXT UP, DIGGING INTO THE LIVESTOCK MARKETS.. SUE  AND NAOMI REJOIN ME NEXT.  

ROUNDTABLE 2
 WELCOME BACK TO US FARM REPORT. LET'S HEAD ON WHEAT  REALLY QUICKLY I MEAN WE KNOW THAT WHEN ARE WE TO STRUGGLING IN SOME AREAS. WE SAW THE WINTER WHEAT TO WORK IN KANSAS. THAT  CROP DEFINITELY HAS HAD ITS FAIR SHARE OF CHALLENGES. BUT WHEN IT  COMES TO SPRING WHEAT WE HAVE MORE ACRES OF SPRING WHEAT. DO YOU THINK POSSIBLY THAT SPRING WHEAT IS THE STORY THIS YEAR.  WELL IT WAS THIS STORY LAST YEAR I THINK IS STILL GOING TO BE THE  WINTER WHEAT WHEN WE GET ALL SAID AND DONE IT. WE HAVE A FORECAST FOR BRAIN POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS IF THAT RAIN  DOESN'T MATERIALIZE. I THINK ALL OF A SUDDEN WE'RE GOING TO START TO  PERCOLATE AGAIN ON THE WHEAT MARKET. BUT WHEAT IS JUSTIFIED IN FALLING BACK. ONE WE DID TAKE OUT THE HIGHS OF MARCH BY EVER SO  LITTLE BUT WE DID AS SO THE MARKET LOOKS LIKE A LITTLE DOUBLE TOP FOR  THE MOMENT. BUT IF YOU LOOK AT JULY WHEAT OF THIS YEAR IT'S INTERESTING FROM THE HIGH END. OH GOLLY. I WANT TO SAY 2008 WHEN  IT GOT UP TO 13 20 DRAW A TREND LINE DOWN THROUGH 2014 HIGH  EXTENDED WE HIT THAT TREND LINE THAT IF YOU TAKE FROM 2015 AND DRAW ACROSS ALL OF THESE SIDEWAYS HIGHS THAT TREND LINE THROUGH  LAST YEAR'S HIGH HITS RIGHT ON THAT LINE AS WELL. WHAT'S INTERESTING  THOUGH IS THE ESTIMATE IS 37 BUSHEL PER ACRE.   AND IF THAT COMES TO FRUITION THE LAST TIME WELL IT WOULD BE  THE LOWEST SINCE 1989 AND WE WERE IN THE 20S BACK THEN FOR  YIELD I LOOKED AT THAT YEAR AND IT WAS INTERESTING JULY CASEY WE PEAKED ON MAY 5TH THIS YEAR MAY 4TH MAY 5TH WAS A SATURDAY  AND THE SEP PEAKED ON THE 8TH ON MONDAY. AFTER THAT WEEKEND  IT'S ALMOST COINCIDENTAL BUT IT'S HAPPENING. SO I THINK THE MARKET'S GOT SOME THINGS GOING ON HERE AND IT'S JUST CATCHING ITS  BREATH. SWITCHING GEARS TO CHINA USDA AND WEDNESDAY WE  SAW STOCKS USDA PROJECTING THAT WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE A DROP IN INDEED SOCKS FOR CHINA EACH YEAR. SO WHAT DOES THAT RESULTING  FROM ISN'T RESULTING FROM MAYBE MORE ETHANOL USE BECAUSE OF  YOU KNOW IN CHINA OR REALLY WHY DO YOU THINK THESE PROJECTIONS ARE OUT THERE. YEAH IT'S A COMBINATION OF THE INCREASED USE OF  CORN FOR ETHANOL IN CHINA. ALSO CHINA'S BEEN REALLY AGGRESSIVE  JUST ABOUT TRYING TO USE UP THOSE OLD CROP SUPPLIES BECAUSE THEY JUST KNOW THAT IT'S LOSING FAVOR PRETTY QUICKLY. SO THE DEMAND IS  THERE THE DEMAND IS GOING TO BE GROWING FOR THE CHINESE MARKET  FOR CORN AND THEY'RE ENCOURAGING THEIR PRODUCERS THIS NEXT YEAR TO ACTUALLY GROW A LITTLE BIT MORE SOYBEANS RATHER THAN CORN. SO  WE'RE GOING TO GET A HANDLE ON THEIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND  WHAT'S GOING TO BE HAPPENING THERE THIS SUMMER. IT'S A FRIENDLY STORY TO HAVE THOSE ENDING STOCKS COME DOWN WITHOUT A DOUBT.  BUT WE'RE NOT IN DIRE STRAITS YET BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO ABSOLUTELY  CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND IT KEEPS THE MARKET STORY SUPPORTIVE FOR  CORN. REAL QUICK. NOT MUCH TIME LEFT. LET'S HEAD ON LIVESTOCK  CATTLE HOW WE'VE KIND OF SEEN THIS CHOPPY TRADE DOES THAT CONTINUES. WELL I THINK THE CATTLE MARKET WILL CHOP AROUND A LITTLE  BIT MORE. BUT I CONTINUE TO HEAR ESPECIALLY OUT OF KANSAS FEEDLOTS  ARE ACTUALLY STILL NOT WITH A LOT OF CATTLE MARKET READY HERE IN  ANOTHER TWO TO THREE WEEKS OUT BEFORE THEY ACTUALLY HAVE CATTLE  THAT WILL BE READY FOR MARKET. THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT  THIS MARKET. WE THINK THAT JEUNES CAN MAKE IT UP BETWEEN 110 112. THE SPREAD BETWEEN JUNE AUGUST GETS FOUR TO FIVE DOLLARS  PREMIUM THE JUNE. THE THING ABOUT THE JUNE IS IT'S JUST SO  DISCOUNT TO THE CASH MARKET AND WE'VE SEEN SOME CASH TRADE  TODAY AT 126 50. SO IT'S NOT FALLING BACK. I THINK THE CATTLE  MARKETS GOT CHANCE TO SURPRISE US A LITTLE BIT. YOU THINK WE COULD  BE IN FOR SOME FOR SOME SURPRISE THEY WERE WELL SUPPORTED. THE WALL OF CATTLE STORY HAS BEEN PRICED INTO THIS THING. IT'S A DONE  STORY WE KNOW IT'S THERE BUT DEMAND IS GOOD. EXPORT DEMAND  OVERALL IS STRONG CONSUMER DEMAND IS STRONG AND SO THE MARKET  HAS A GOOD SUPPORT AREA. BUT WE NEED TO SEE THE DEMAND JUST  CONTINUE. OTHERWISE I AGREE MORE WITH SIDEWAYS TRADING RANGE  BUT WE'RE WELL-SUPPORTED BECAUSE OF THE DEMAND STORY. ALL RIGHT  THANK YOU BOTH. I APPRECIATE IT AGAIN. HAPPY MOTHER'S DAY.  SAME THING EVERY MOTHER'S DAY. THANK YOU. WE NEED TO TAKE A  QUICK BREAK AND THEN WE'LL BE BACK ON U.S. FARM REFORM.  

CUSTOMER SUPPORT
IT'S USDA REPORT WEEK. WHICH MEANS I'VE TRIED TO  DIG INTO THE REPORT WITH THIS WEEK'S ANALYSTS,  TRYING TO EXPLORE MRAKET IMPLICATOINS. BUT THESE REPORTS ALSO RAISE QUESTIONS AMONG  FARMERS. HERE'S JOHN PHIPPS.  SAM JAMES RAISES A PERENNIAL QUESTION THAT POPS UP WHEN  GOVERNMENT REPORTS FROM THE AG DEPARTMENT ARE CUSSED AND  DISCUSSED. "WHY SHOULD FARMERS COMPLY WITH CROP AND LIVESTOCK  REPORTING THAT IS NOT TIED TO GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIES? WHEN WE GO  TO BUY ANY RETAIL GOODS THE BUSINESS DOES NOT TELL US HOW MANY ITEMS OF EACH THEY HAVE FOR SALE. IF THEY WOULD TELL ME THEY FIVE  CRATES FULL OF A SELDOM USED PART I WOULD KNOW I COULD BARGAIN  WITH THEM FOR A BETTER PRICE. REVERSING THE SITUATION THOUGH, THE  BUYER AT THE LOCAL STOCKYARD KNOWS WHAT THE CATTLE INVENTORY IS  AND KNOWS HE DOESN'T HAVE TO PAY TOP PRICE IF CATTLE NUMBERS ARE HIGH. WOULD IT NOT SERVE THE FARMER BETTER TO LEAVE THEM  GUESSING?" I CAN SEE YOUR POINT, SAM AND OVER THE YEARS HAVE LEANED BOTH  WAYS ON THESE REPORTS. LET ME SEE IF I CAN SUMMARIZE SOME OF  THE PROS AND CONS. FIRST, FARMERS ALMOST ALWAYS USE THE EXAMPLE OF REPORT OUTCOMES THAT SEEM TO DEPRESS PRICES, BUT IT WORKS BOTH WAYS.  WHEN CATTLE NUMBERS ARE SURPRISINGLY LOW, FOR INSTANCE, I DON'T  HEAR BEEF PRODUCERS QUESTIONING WHEN THE PRICE POPS UPWARD. SECOND, DESPITE ALL THE CRITICISM AND DECLINING PRODUCER  PARTICIPATION, GOVERNMENT SURVEYS ARE STILL THE BEST WE HAVE IN  ORDER TO KNOW WHAT IS GOING ON ALL ACROSS OUR INDUSTRY. THERE ARE  PRIVATE COMPETITORS, BUT CROP AND INVENTORY NUMBERS FROM THE USDA STILL MOVE THE MARKETS LIKE NOTHING ELSE, WHICH IS AN  ACCURATE MEASURE OF HOW ALL THE PLAYERS RATE THEIR CREDIBILITY. FINALLY, THERE IS A FALLACY OF LOGIC IN THE IDEA THAT WE CAN KEEP THE BUYERS GUESSING WHILE PRODUCERS KNOW WHAT IS IN THE FIELDS  OR FEEDLOTS. WE DON'T - WE ONLY KNOW FOR SURE WHAT IS IN OUR  BACKYARD, AND THAT IS SELDOM A GOOD SAMPLE FOR THE WHOLE COUNTRY. FARMERS WOULD BE GUESSING EVEN MORE THAN LARGE AG  BUYERS WHO CAN ALREADY AFFORD AND USE PRIVATE INFORMATION  SOURCES. I THINK OUR SURVEY AND REPORTING SYSTEM COULD BE IMPROVED, BUT I HAVE CONFIDENCE IT IS AT LEAST HONESTLY DERIVED AND CAREFULLY KEPT  CONFIDENTIAL, WHICH IS NOT SMALL TASK THESE DAYS. THANKS, JOHN. IF YOU HAVE COMMENTS FOR JOHN, JUST EMAIL HIMA T MAILBAG AT U-S FARM REPORT DOT COM NEXT UP, A FROM THE FARM MOTHERS DAY TRIBUTE. 

FROM THE FARM
WELCOME BACK. WELL, SOME OF OUR VIEWERS MADE SOME MORE PLANTING PROGRESS THIS WEEK. THE 2018 TOP PRODUCER HORIZON AWARD WINNER IS  BUSY PLANTING IN THE FIELD. MAGGIE HOLUB {HOLE-UB}  IS AN IMPRESSIVE YOUNG WOMAN. AFTER HER FATHER  PASSED AWAY, SHE WAS DETERMINED TO KEEP  FARMING. EVEN BUYING HER OWN FARMLAND THIS  YEAR.  AND IN HONOR OF MOTHER'S DAY. WE WANT TO GIVE A  SHOUTOUT TO LIZ SIGDESTAD {SIG-DUH-STAD}. HER  HUSAND STEVE SENT ME A MESSAGE A MONTH AGO,  RAVING ABOUT HIS WIFE. APPARENTLY THEY HAD THEIR  FIRST BABY GIRL LAST YEAR, AND HIS WIFE WENT ABOVE AND BOYOND TAKING CARE OF HTEIR CHILD,  WHILE HARVESTING ALL OF THEIR FALL CROPS. TALK  ABOUT AN IMPRESSIVE WOMN. THEY STARTED FARMING  IN 2010. HE SAYS THEY ARE BIG ON CONSERVATION  TILLAGE BUT HE SAYS HIS WIFE DESERVES SO MUCH  CREDIT FOR ALL THE HARD WORK SHE PUTS IN EVERY  DAY. SO, HAPPY MOTHER'S DAY, LIZ.  AND I'D SAY HER HUSBAND STEVE AND MAJOR BROWNIE POINTS. I'D SAY SO. A FARMERA AND A MOTHER ALL AT THE SAME TIME. ALL RIGHT WELL IF YOU HAVE ANY PICTURES OR VIDEO YOU WOULD LIKE TO SEND IN, HEN YOU CAN DO THAT TO THE ADDRESS ON THE SCREEN. 

CLOSE
AND FROM ALL OF US U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M MIKE HOFFMAN AND I'M TIME WORKING. THANK YOU FOR WATCHING.  BE SURE TO JOIN US AGAIN RIGHT HERE AS WE WORK TO BUILD ON HONORED TRADITION. HAVE A GREAT MOTHER'S DAY WEEKEND EVERYONE AND WE'LL SEE YOU HERE NEXT WEEK. 

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Allen
California, CA
5/16/2018 05:21 AM
 

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