USFR Weekly Recap - May 26-27, 2018

May 26, 2018 03:30 AM
 

TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
MAY 26-27, 2018

HEADLINES

WELCOME TO THIS SPECIAL EDITION OF U.S. FARM REPORT THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND FROM THE  INDIANAPOLIS 500 SPEEDWAY. I'M TYNE MORGAN, AND  HERE'S WHAT'S IN STORE THE NEXT 60 MINUTES.  A TRADE TRUCE BETWEEN TEH U-S AND CHINA PLAYED  OUT THIS WEEK <THE POSITIVE HEADLINE IS THIS, COME U.S. HARVEST THIS FALL, AUGUST,  SEPTEMBER, OCTOBER, IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW AS IF CHINA WILL BE BACK  BUYING U.S. BEANS . AND WITH BOLD STATEMENTS FROM THE PRESIDENT, IT'S SPARKING SPECULATION ON WHAT IT MEANS FOR U-S AGRICULTURE.  FROM DRIVING NEW ETHANOL DEMAND TO QUENCHING  A THIRST FOR HIGHER DAIRY PRICES, OUR MARKETING  ROUNDTBALES ARE FROM THE TRACK.  THE RACE NOT ONLY CELEBRATE'S THE GREATEST  SPECTACLE IN RACING,  <"THE WORLD SEES THE GUY TAKING THE BIG DRINK OF MILK AT THE END OF THE RACE. ANYTIME WE CAN BRING AWARENESS TO MILK IS GREAT> IT'S ALSO ABOUT THE CONVETED GLASS OF MILK. MEET THIS YEAR'S MILK WOMAN.  AND IN JOHN'S WORLD.  MEMORIAL DAY, IT'S A TIME FOR DADS.  

NEWS
NOW FOR THE NEWS, A TRADE TRUCE BETWEEN THE U- S AND CHINA MEANS THREATS OF TARIFFS ARE BEING  PLACED ON HOLD. WHILE NO DEAL HAS BEEN SIGNED,  IT'S THAT CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM THAT INITIALLY RIPPLED THROUGH THE COMMODITY MARKETS. AND IT COULD BE  NEW CROP BEANS AND MEATS POISED TO GAIN THE  MOST. A TRADE TRUCE BETWEEN THE U-S AND CHINA MEANS  THREATS OF TARIFFS ARE BEING PLACED ON HOLD.  IT'S A FRAMEWORK THAT TREASURY SECRETARY STEVE  MNUNCHIN SAYS BOTH THE U-S AND CHINA MADE VERY  MEANINGFUL PROGRESS WITH CHINA ON TRADE  ISSUES. WHILE DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT, MNUCHIN SAYS A TRADE AGREEMENT COULD  BOOST U-S AG EXPORTS BY 35 TO 40 PERCENT.  THE PRESIDENT TWEETING MONDAY MORNING, SAYING  CHINA WILL, QUOTE, PURCHASE FROM OUR GREAT  AMERICAN FARMERS PRACTICALLY AS MUCH AS OUR  FARMERS CAN PRODUCE.  IT'S THAT LOFTY STATEMENT CREATING HEFTY GOALS,  AS U-S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE UNDER  SECRETARY FOR TRADE SAYS THE PRESIDENT'S TWEET IS MORE OF A CHALLENGE FOR U-S AGRICULTURE.  BUT JUST TWO DAYS LATER, TRUMP ADDING DOUBT TO  THE CONVERSATION, TWEETING THAT THE  TRADE DEAL  WITH CHINA IS MOVING ALONG NICELY, BUT IN THE END,  WE WILL RPOBABLY HAVE TO USE A DIFFERENT  STRUCUTR EIN THAT THIS WILL BE TOO HARD TO GET  DONE AND TO VERIFY RESULTS AFTER COMPLETIION." WHILE THE OUTCOME IS UNCLEAR, THE NEWS THIS  WEEK SENT COMMODITY MARKETS HIGHER.  <THE POSITIVE HEADLINE IS THIS, COME U.S. HARVEST THIS FALL, AUGUST, SEPTEMBER, OCTOBER, IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW AS IF CHINA WILL BE BACK  BUYING U.S. BEANS AS THEY USUALLY DO, SO CERTIANLY A POSITIVE  HEADLINE > EVEN THOUGH TALKS ARE ONGING, DASSE OF AGRESOURCE COMPANY SAYS CHINA STILL HAS HEFTY  WHEAT AND CORN STOCKS, BASSE  POITNS OUT IT'S  THE U-S MEAT SECTOR POISED TO GAIN THE MOST IF A  TRADE DEAL IS REACHED.  <. WE THINK THE APPETITE FOR CHINA FOR U.S. BEEF IS SIZABLE. WE  THINK THERE COULD BE BIG RALLIES AS WE START TO SEE PLACEMENTS DROPPING HERE. AND SO WE ARE MOST OPTIMISTIC ON THIS WHOLE  ACCORD RELATIVE TO THE MEATS.> CHINA WAS BACK IN THE BUSINESS OF BUYING U-S  BEANS THIS WEEK. CHINA'S STATE GRAIN STOCKPILER PURCHASED  SOYBEANS FROM THE U-S FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE  APRIL.  HOWEVER, IT'S THE 25 PERCENT TARIFF ON U-S PORK  THAT IS STILL ON THE TABLE.  TEH U-S ADMIONSTIRATION SAYS THAT ANY SURGE IN U- S AG EXPORTS TO CHINA DEPENDS ON SETTLIGN THE  DISPUTE BETWEEN TEH TWO COUNTRIES. TAHT INCLUDES LIFTING TRADE BARRIERS ON U-S PORK AND CORN.  MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND MARKS THE UNOFFICIAL  START TO SUMMER. AND THAT MEANS GRILLS WILL BE  FIRING UP ACROSS THE COUNTRY. IT'S SOME ANALYSTS SAY, IT'S THAT ADDED DEMAND  THAT REALLY NEEDS TO HEAT UP, AS THE AMOUNT OF  BEEF IN FREEZERS CONTINUES TO GROW.  HEADING INTO GRILLING SEASON, U-S DEPARTMENT OF  AGRICULTURE'S LATEST COLD STORAGE REPORT  SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF PRODUCT IN FREEZERS AS OF  APRIL REMAINS HIGH.  USDA SAYS TOTAL RED MEAT SUPPLIE IN FREEZERS  CREPT  UP 4 PERCENT FROM LAST MONTH AND 7  PERCENT HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR. BEEF IN FREEZERS ROSE 2 PERCENT FROM MARCH. IT LOOKS LIKE A REVOTE ON TEH HOUSE FARM BILL IS  ON THE BOOKS FOR JUN E22ND.  THE MESAURE WAS DEFEATED LAST WEEK.. THAT VOTE  REALLY DERAILED BY A CONSERVATIVE IMMIGRATION  BILL.  REPORTS SAY THE HOUSE WILL CONSIDER THAT BILL  BEFORE HTE FARM BILL VOTE.  USDA LATEST CROP PROGRESS REPORT INDICATES 81  PERCENT OF THE CORN IS NOW PLANTED. THAT'S RIGHT  ON TRACK WITH AVERAGE.  WHILE IOWA PLAYED CATCH UP, ONLY 2 POITNS BEHIND  NORMAL, MINNESOTA'S FARMERS ARE STILL LAGGING  AVERAGE BY 7, MICHIGAN IS 13 POITNS BEHIND AND  PENNSYLVANIA CORN PALNTING IS NEARLY 30 POITNS  BEHIND NORMAL.  AS FOR EMERGENCE, 50 PERCENT OF THE CROP IS  POPPING OUT OF THE GROUND, 3 POINTS AHEAD OF  NORMAL.  U-S SOYBEAN PLANTING IS 12 POINTS AHEAD OF THE 5- YEAR AVERAGE.  SOUTH DAKOTA TARISL THE AVERAGE PACE BY 20  POINTS.  26 PERCENT OF THE CROP IS EMERGED, 11 POINTS  AHEAD OF NORMAL.     THE LACK OF RAIN THAT MEANS FARMERS DON'T HAVE  MANY WEATHER DISRUPTIONS THIS YEAR.  USDA SHOWS 43 PERCENT OF THE CROP IS PLANTED IN  THE LONE-STAR STATE, 10 POITNS AHEAD OF  AVEREAGE.  LOOKING AT OTHER STATES FACING DROUGHT, USDA  SAYS 30 PERCENT OF THE CROP IS IN THE GROUND IN  KANSAS, A 17 POITN JUMP FROM AVERAGE.  OKLAHOMA HAS 40 PERCENT OF THE CROP PLANTED,  UP 14 POINTS.  THE DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWING A LITTLE  IMPROVEMENT IN THOSE AREAS. TEXAS SAW A POINT AND A HALF IMPORVEMENT IN THE  WORST LEVEL OF DROUGHT LAST WEEK.  . BUT THE REALITY IS, NEARLY 63 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS STILL SEEING DRYNESS. IN OKLAHOMA, NEALRY 54 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS  UNDER DROUGHT, BUT THE EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT DID  IMPROVE 2 POINT 8 POINTS  AND IN KANSAS, OVERALL DROUGHT IMPROVED 4  POINTS. EXTREME DROUGHT WAS A 6 POITN  IMPROVEMENT.  

TEASE
THAT'S IT FOR THE NEWS. WHEN WE COME BACK, METEOROLGOIST MIKE HOFFMAN HAS YOUR SUMMER  FORECAST. PLUS, OUR MARKETING ROUNDTABLE FROM THE SPEEDWAY LOOKS AT ETHANOL DEMAND AMD HOW IT  COULD DICTATE PRICES IN THE MONTHS AHEAD. 

WEATHER
METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN JOINS US FROM OUR SOUTH BEND STUDIO. MIKE, NOW THAT SUMMER IS  UNOFFICIALLY HERE, WE'RE READY FOR YOUR SUMMER  FORECAST.  THAT'S RIGHT TEIN WE'LL BE GETTING TO THAT FORECAST FOR JUNE JULY AND AUGUST COMING UP AT THE END OF THIS WEATHER CAST IN THE  MEANTIME WE'D LOVE TO HAVE SOME MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN  PLAINS PANHANDLE OF TEXAS OKLAHOMA SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS  BACK INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THAT HAS BEEN EXPANDING INTO  PARTS OF MISSOURI ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN IOWA ALSO WE'RE SEEING  EXPANSION'S REDEVELOPING IN PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS NOT SOMETHING  WE WANT TO HEAR AND WE'RE SEEING LESS AND LESS IN THE  SOUTHEAST. WE'RE GOING TO CONTINUE TO SEE LESS AND LESS AS MORE  MOISTURE IS COMING THIS WAY. HERE'S WHAT THE DROUGHT MONITOR  LOOKED LIKE A MONTH AGO. YOU CAN SEE IT WAS ALREADY EXTREMELY  DRY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS BACK INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  WE WERE STARTING TO GET DRY IN THE SOUTHEAST. WE'VE CONTINUE TO  SEE POCKETS OF DRYNESS IN SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THAT STILL THE CASE. AND YOU CAN SEE THAT AREA IS STARTING TO EXPAND JUST A LITTLE BIT  ONCE AGAIN IN PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA IN NORTH DAKOTA. HERE'S  WHAT THE JETSTREAM LOOKS LIKE WE'RE GOING TO HAVE CUT OFF LOW IN THE WEST. IT LOOKS LIKE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND  THAT WILL ACTUALLY GIVE SOME CHANCES FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WOULD  BE GOOD NEWS BUT I'M AFRAID IT'S GOING TO BE TOO SCATTERED TO  REALLY MATTER A WHOLE LOT. WE'LL BE WATCHING A TROPICAL SYSTEM COME NORTHWARD AND THAT WILL BRING SOME MOISTURE AS WE HEAD  THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND  OTHER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST.   YOU CAN SEE THE RIDGE KIND OF GETS CUT DOWN TEMPORARILY  LATER NEXT WEEK WITH THE COOL THINGS BACK DOWN IN THE GREAT  LAKES. BUT THE RIDGE BUILDS RIGHT BACK UP OVER THE WESTERN  PLAINS EASTERN ROCKIES AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE WEEK  AND THAT CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTHWARD AFTER THAT CSEA TROUGH OUT  WEST REALLY DOESN'T DO A WHOLE LOT. HERE'S THE WAY THINGS LOOK.  DAY BY DAY. THEN AGAIN WE'RE PROBABLY GOING TO HAVE A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE STARTING TO COME INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF  MEXICO AND PERHAPS MOVING INLAND. IT WOULD BE CALLED ALBERTO. IF  THAT IS STILL ONGOING. AGAIN WE'RE YOU KNOW WE'RE RECORDING THIS  OVER THE WEEKEND SO WE'LL JUST HAVE TO KIND OF WATCH THAT. YOU  CAN SEE THOSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRETTY LIKELY IN THE SOUTHEAST WE'LL HAVE A WEAK SYSTEM THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF  STATES WITH SOME HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON  WEDNESDAY THEN THE REMNANTS OF ALL THAT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MORE THAN LIKELY. THAT'S ALWAYS TOUGH TO  FORECAST WEAK SYSTEMS A COUPLE OF THEM THROUGH THE NORTHERN  TIER OF STATES. AND THAT REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING ON UP THROUGH PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST TAG UNITED WITH THAT COLD  FRONT BY THE FIRST DAY OF JUNE FEW HIT AND MISS THUNDERSTORMS IN  THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HERE'S OUR JUNE OUTLOOK FOR TEMPERATURES  BELOW NORMAL FOR THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ABOVE  NORMAL FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH ALL OF THE WEST TAKING A LOOK AT JULY. I'M GOING TO BACK OFF ON THE ABOVE NORMAL  INTO THE SOUTHEAST. MOST OF THE WEST BELOW NORMAL STILL IN THE FAR  NORTHERN GREAT LAKES OTHERWISE NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE CORN BELT.  SAME IDEA FOR AUGUST REALLY DIDN'T CHANGE THAT TOO MUCH  FROM JULY PRECIPITATION. THAT'S A BIG DEAL FOR THE 90 DAY OUTLOOK  FROM GOING NEAR NORMAL IN THOSE DROUGHT AREAS YOU NEED MORE  THAN THAT UNFORTUNATELY TO GET OUT OF THE DROUGHT BUT IT'S ABOVE NORMAL SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BELOW  NORMAL IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TYNE  THANJKS, MIKE. IT'S THESE CARS TAHT RUN ON ETHANOL SO IT'S A  CONVERSATION ALL ABOUT DEMAND LATER ON U-S FARM REPORT . 

ROUNDTABLE 1
WELL WELCOME BACK TO THIS SPECIAL EDITION OF U.S. FARM  REPORT. WE'RE GOING TO TALK ETHANOL FOR THIS MARKETING ROUNDTABLE. WHAT BETTER PLACE TO DO THAT RIGHT AT THE INDY 500 SPEEDWAY THE  WEEKEND OF THE RACE DEBUTED AT MIKE NORTH TO TALK WITH ME THIS  WEEK. DAVE IS WITH POET REALLY CLOSE TO HERE IN ALEXANDRIA  INDIANA. DAVE I'M HEARING THAT ETHANOL DEMAND RIGHT NOW IS  PRETTY STRONG SOME FARMERS SAY THERE'S LONG LINES THAT THE  ETHANOL PLANT IS DEMAND PICKING UP FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WELL  DEMAND REALLY DEPENDS ON THE GASOLINE DEMAND.SO AS THE  DRIVING SEASON STARTS. MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS WHEN A DRIVING SEASON STARTS. CERTAINLY IT DOES PICK UP THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SO  ARE YOU SEEING LINES AT SOME OF YOUR PLANTS RIGHT NOW. WE DO  WE'RE PRETTY STEADY THOUGH WE GRIND THE SAME AMOUNT EVERY DAY. WE PRODUCE ABOUT A MILLION GALLONS A YEAR SO GROWING IS  CONSTANT THROUGHOUT THE YEAR. BUT ONCE PLANTING SEASON IS DONE  THEN THE LINES PICKUP AND DELIVERIES OF COURSE TO GO OUT WHICH SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP PROBABLY AROUND HERE REALLY IN THE  SPOTLIGHT THIS YEAR AND HIT HEADLINES WHITE HOUSE MEETINGS OVER  ETHANOL POSSIBLE CHANGES ARE AT BEST. LAST WE KNEW POSSIBILE THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE ADMINISTRATION WILL SUPPORT A 15 YEAR  ROUND AS WELL AS A POSSIBLE COUPLE OF OTHER CHANGES. BUT IF WE  GET A 15 YEAR ROUND WHAT TYPE OF DEMAND BOOST WOULD THAT PROVIDE FOR CORN FARMERS. WELL THE REALITY IS A LOT OF PEOPLE HAVE  THIS KIND OF MISUNDERSTANDING THAT IF WE GO TO A 15 YEAR ROUND  THAT THAT'S SUDDENLY GOING TO RAISE DEMAND BY 50 PERCENT ALL ACROSS THE BOARD.  BUT THAT'S REALLY NOT THE CASE BECAUSE NOT EVERYBODY IS BLENDING E15 EVERYWHERE. SO THE REALITY IS IS THAT IT WILL HAVE AN  INCREASE. IT'S HARD TO FULLY QUANTIFY BUT IT'S 5 TO 10 PERCENT IS KIND  OF THE NUMBER THAT WE KICK AROUND AND TAKE A LOOK AT. SO YOU  STOP AND THINK ABOUT THAT 10 PERCENT ON A 5.5 BILLION BUSHEL  CRUSH TAKES YOU UP CLOSER TO 6 CENTS. THAT'S PRETTY SIZABLE  DEMAND THAT'S THE KIND OF NUMBERS THAT REALLY HELPED DETERIORATE  THE BALANCE SHEET AND CAN REALLY HELP CONTINUE THAT PATH  TOWARDS BETTER PRICES. AND DAVE I KNOW YOU'VE CRUNCHED THE NUMBERS. REALISTICALLY WHAT TYPE OF DEMAND WOULD THAT CREATE  WITH 15. WELL IT'S THIS TEAM COULD POTENTIALLY INCREASE ETHANOL  DEMAND BY ACROSS THE COUNTRY RIGHT NOW THE EAST IF TEAM IS  AVAILABLE IN 29 STATES ABOUT 3500 STATIONS. WHO KNOWS WHAT.  WHAT THAT COULD MEAN FOR ADDING STATIONS. BUT THE FACT THAT YOU CAN'T BUY YOUR ROUND IS REALLY WHAT'S HOLDING THINGS UP. YEAH. SO  IS THAT YOU THINK THAT'S CREATING SOME CONFUSION WITH CONSUMERS  CAN'T GET A 15 YEAR ROUND. DEFINITELY AS A CONSUMER. STUDIES HAVE BEEN DONE THAT CONSUMERS DEFINITELY BUY ON ON PRICE  PRIMARILY. A LOT OF IT IS DEPENDENT ON THAT S15 IS MUCH LESS  EXPENSIVE THAN REGULAR UNLEADED WHICH IS 10 PERCENT ETHANOL IN IT. AND THEN ONCE THE SUMMER MONTHS COME BECAUSE OF THE RED  VAPOR PRESSURE PROGRAM THEY HAVE TO STOP SELLING 15. SO NOW ALL  OF A SUDDEN A WEEK AGO I COULD BUY IT. NOW I CAN'T. AND THEN IT STARTS THROWING CONFUSION IN SOMEONE'S MIND  AND PRICE I AS A CONSUMER I UNDERSTAND THE PRICING WELL I MEAN  THAT'S HOW I CHOOSE MY FUEL IS BASED ON ON PRICE. SO WHAT ARE WE TALKING ABOUT WITH PRICE. HOW MUCH CHEAPER IS E15. OH IT'S IT  DEPENDS ON WHAT PART OF COUNTRY AND THE PROBABLY 10 TO 15  CENTS A GALLON CHEAPER THAN REGULAR UNLEADED. AT THE SAME TIME WE'RE SEEING CRUDE OIL PRICES KIND OF CLIMB. MIKE, AND SO IF WESEE OIL PRICES CONTINUE TO CLIMB I MEAN ULTIMATELY THAT WILL MAKE  ETHANOL BLENDS CHEAPER RIGHT. ABSOLUTELY. AND YOU KNOW  OBVIOUSLY ETHANOL COMPETES IN THAT SPACE AND SO HIGHER CRUDE  OIL PRICES WILL HELP TUG ON ETHANOL VALUES. BUT THAT ALSO ADDS  PROFITABILITY BACK TO THE PLANT. AND THEN YOU KNOW THE RECIPROCAL  EFFECT IS HIGHER CORN PRICES SO HIGHER CRUDE OIL CERTAINLY GOES A  LONG WAY TO MAKE ETHANOL LOOK BETTER FROM A PRICING STANDPOINT  TO THE CONSUMER. AND THAT CERTAINLY WOULD HELP ESPECIALLY AS WE COME INTO THE SUMMER MONTHS. DAVE REALISTICALLY LET'S SAY THE  ADMINISTRATION SAYS OK WE'RE GOING 15 YEAR ROUND. IT'S THE  SUPPLY BEAR TO SUPPLY THAT ADDED DEMAND OVERNIGHT. DEFINITELY IT WON'T HAPPEN OVERNIGHT IF THE ADMINISTRATIONS STARTS IN 15 YEARS.  THERE ARE THINGS THAT HAVE TO TAKE PLACE BUT THE ETHANOL INDUSTRY CAN HE CAN SUPPLY WHATEVER IS NEEDED IS 15 THE CURE TO FOUR  DOLLAR CORN. IT'S PART OF THE CURE. RIGHT. LET'S LET'S REMEMBER THAT  AS WE TALK ABOUT CORN DEMAND IT'S ETHANOL RIGHT. THAT'S THE  NUMBER ONE USER RIGHT NOW. AND THEN SECONDARILY FEED AND THEN  EXPORTS AND SO AS WE TALK ABOUT GREATER DEMAND FOR ETHANOL THAT  CAN CERTAINLY THAT CAN CERTAINLY CHEW AWAY. BUT IF WE DON'T SEE  THAT STRENGTHENING THEY REALLY LIKE TO WRAP THIS UP.   ARE YOU EXCITED ABOUT THE FUTURE OF ETHANOL. WE HAVE  SEEN ETHANOL IN THE SPOTLIGHT THIS YEAR REALLY GETTING PEOPLE  AWARE MORE CONVERSATIONS AROUND IT. ARE YOU EXCITED FOR WHAT'S  TO COME. DEFINITELY THE ADMINISTRATION OF MINISTRATION HAS  DEFINITELY CAUSED SOME EXCITEMENT IN OUR INDUSTRY. WE'RE VERY HOPEFUL THAT WE CAN GET THE READ VAPOR PRESSURE THING BEHIND US  AND GET MOVING FORWARD. ALL RIGHT DAVE THANK YOU SO MUCH MICHAEL REJOIN US IN OUR NEXT HALF HOUR TO TALK DAIRY DEMAND WE  KNOW IT'S A DIRE SITUATION FOR MANY. BUT REALLY LOOKING AT THE DAIRY LANDSCAPE WILL DO THAT WITH MIKE NORTH LATER ON THE SHOW BUT STAY  WITH US WE'LL BE BACK WITH MORE U.S. FARM REPORT RIGHT AFTER THE  BREAK.  

JOHN’S WORLD
MEMORIAL DAY IS MORE THAN RACING.  IT'S A DAY TO REFLECT. A DAY TO REMEMBER. AND A DAY HONOR THOSE WHO SACRIFICED THEIR LIVES, FOR  THE ULTIMATE GIFT: FREEDOM.  TO REFLECT ON MEMORIAL DAY THIS WEEKEND, WE  HEAD NOW TO THE FARM TO HEAR FROM JOHN PHIPPS.  JOHN.  MEMORIAL DAY IS A VERY WELL-DESIGNED HOLIDAY. THE FUNDAMENTAL  PURPOSE - TO REMEMBER AND HONOR THOSE WHO HAVE FALLEN IN SERVICE TO OUR COUNTRY - IS TIMELESS AND APPEALING TO AMERICANS  OF ALL POINTS OF VIEW. IT ALSO HAS ALMOST PERFECT TIMING. IT IS AN  INFLECTION POINT IN THE CALENDAR OF OUR LIVES, LINKED TO SEVERAL  SEASONAL AND SOCIAL CHANGES. IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE END OF  SCHOOL, THE BEGINNING OF SUMMER, THE FIRST HAY CUTTING, WEARING WHITE (IF YOU ARE OLD SCHOOL), A PANIC POINT IF YOU ARE NOT DONE  PLANTING, OPENING THE POOL, TOURIST SEASON, AND THE FIRST REAL  REASON FOR SUMMER FIREWORKS.  MEMORIAL DAY HAS SOMETHING FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYONE.  CONSEQUENTLY, THAT ALSO GIVES IT A QUALITY THAT MAY BE THE BIGGEST BENEFIT OF ALL: IT IS A TIME NOT JUST TO REMEMBER, BUT ALSO  TO MAKE NEW MEMORIES. IN FACT, THE EXPERIENCE OF SHARING  MEMORIES IS A POWERFUL MEMORY. WHATEVER FAMILY TRADITIONS THAT HAVE EVOLVED FROM YOUR MEMORIAL DAY GATHERINGS WILL BE WOVEN  INTO THE HOLIDAY ITSELF. EVEN MORE PERVERSE IS THAT THE STRONGEST  MEMORIES OFTEN DEVELOP FROM THE REPEATED FAMILY RITUALS SEEN AS  TOTALLY LAME BY YOUNGER PEOPLE AND EYE-ROLLINGLY HOKEY TO  EVERYONE ELSE. IN SHORT, MEMORIAL DAY IS A GREAT TIME FOR DADS TO DO WHAT WE. DO BEST: GENERATE MILD GROUP EMBARRASSMENT.  FOR EXAMPLE, THIS IS OUR FIREWORKS TREE. IT'S A TREE THAT YEARS  BEFORE I FORGOT TO REMOVE CHRISTMAS LIGHTS FROM, AND DECIDED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE. BEFORE WE SHOOT OFF ANY EXPLOSIVES - WHICH WE  DO FOR ABOUT ANY OCCASION FROM ARBOR DAY TO WINTER SOLSTICE -   WE ALL HAVE TO CIRCLE AROUND THE TREE, HOLDING HANDS AND SINGING A PROFOUNDLY SILLY DITTY OF MY OWN COMPOSITION. WHEN YOU PAY FOR  THE FIREWORKS, YOU MAKE THE RULES. BY NOW EVEN OUR YOUNGEST  GRANDCHILDREN ARE MORTIFIED TO PARTICIPATE. HERE'S A TIP. IF NOBODY  GROANS OR MUTTERS, "OH, GRANDPA," YOU'RE NOT DOING IT RIGHT. REMEMBERING THOSE WHO HAVE FALLEN IN SERVICE TO THE COUNTRY IS  A SOLID CORE AROUND WHICH WE CAN MAKE AN ANNUAL EVENT WITH  SOLEMN TRIBUTE TO ANCHOR YOUR FAMILY CALENDAR. ADDING SHARED  MEMORIES CAN ONLY ENRICH THIS CELEBRATION. AND FEW THINGS  CONTRIBUTE MORE TO THAT GOAL THAN FOR DADS TO STEP UP AND MAKE THOSE MEMORIES WE CAN'T FORGET. NO MATTER HOW HARD WE TRY.  THANKS, JOHN. 

TEASE
WHEN WE COME BACK, MACHINERY PETE GETS US IN THE HOLDIDAY SPIRIT BY TAKING A TRIP DOWN MEMORY  LANE FOR TRACTOR TALES. THAT'S NEXT.  

TRACTOR TALES
HEY FOLKS WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES WE'RE IN HELENA  OKLAHOMA HERE WITH DAVID SHEPHERD. AND DAVID YOU HAVE  MOSTLY JOHN DEERE TRACTORS IN YOUR COLLECTION OF APPROXIMATELY  60 BUT ONE VERY SPECIAL MOLINE WHY DON'T YOU TELL US ABOUT IT.  THIS IS MY GRANDFATHER'S TRACTOR AND THEN PASSED IT DOWN TO MY  UNCLE AND I PURCHASED IT FROM MY UNCLE TWO YEARS AGO AND I TOOK  IT HAD IT RESTORED AND THAT WAS THERE HAYING TRACTOR. WHAT WAS  YOUR GRANDPA'S NAME. JESSE CRONIN OK. DID YOU REMEMBER.  YOU KNOW DAVID AND HE BUY NEW OR USED HER. I'M NOT SURE HOW  IT WAS NEVER. SO YOU HAD IT RESTORED OR WHAT KIND OF CONDITION  WAS IT IN BEFORE YOU RESTORED IT. IT WAS A BAD SHAPE. IT HAD BEEN SITTING OUT ALOT OF YEARS SURE. MOTOR WAS STUCK WE'VE REDONE IT  RUNS REALLY NICE NOW. WHO DID YOU GUYS HAVE TO DO THE  RESTORATION WORK. I HAD A NEIGHBOR DO THE THIS TRACTER. I NOTICED WITH A LOT OF SOME OF YOUR OTHER TRACTORS DAVID IN YOUR COLLECTION  THE FAMILY HISTORY PIECE SEEMS TO BE VERY IMPORTANT WHY DON'T  YOU TALK ABOUT THAT IN THIS CASE YOUR GRANDPA BUT KEEPING THAT FAMILY HISTORY ALIVE WITH HIS TRACTORS IS THAT. YEAH AND THAT'S YOU  KNOW I GREW UP WATCHING ALL THESE TRACTORS WORKING IN A FIELD AND  RUN A LOT OF THEM. I MEAN WE RUN. IT'S JUST PART OF HISTORY TO ME  AND JUST ENJOY TRY AND KEEP ME ALIVE. AND I FEEL LIKE MAYBE I'LL  SAVE YOU THESE GOING TO SCRAP FARM.  THANKS SO MUCH.  

TEASE
STILL TO COME, THE SPOTLIGHT IS ON DAIRY. FROM DRIVING UP DAIRY DEMAND, TO CELEBRATING  THE FACE BEHIND THIS YEAR'S COVETED GLASS OF  MILK, OUR SPECIAL EDITION OF U-S FARM REPORT  COTINUES FROM THE INDIANAPOLIS 500 SPEEDWAY  NEXT. . 

FARM JOURNAL REPORT
WELCOME BACK. DAIRY IS CELEBRATED EACH MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.  THATS AS THE RACE, WHICH WILL HIT ON ALL  CYLINDERS MEMORIAL DAY, IS TOPPED OFF WITH A  GLASS OF MILK. BUT IT'S THAT GLASS OF MILK THAT'S WANING IN  POPULARITY.AND IT'S A TREND, THE INDUSTRY IS FIGHTING TO CHANGE.  AND THAT'S THIS WEEK'S FARM JOURNAL REPORT.  A TRIP TO THE GROCERY STORE OF CONVENIENCE  STORE TODAY CAN OFTEN BE COMPLICATED, WITH  CONSUMERS OFTEN OVERWHELMED BY THE CHOICE.  THE  BEVERAGE  CASE IS  AN  EXPANDING CASE.  IT'S  A  COMPETITIVE  CASE  IT'S A  IT'S  A  IT'S  A THAT'S&​nbsp; A  CONSUMER CASE   FUL  OF CHOICE. > IT'S A REALITYTHAT INTERNATIONAL DAIRY FOODS  ASSOCIATION CEO MICHAEL DYKES IS ACCUSOMED TO.   SO WE  LOOK  AT  THE  BEVERAGE CHOICES  TODAY.  WE  ARE   LIVING IN  A  CULTURE OF  CHOICE ​; AND THAT  MEANS  FOR FOOD  MILK.  SINCE THE 1970S, FLUID MILK CONSUMPTION HSA  DROPPED 11 GALLONS PER PERSON. AND MILK'S  BIGGEST COMPETITOR TODAY MAY SURPRISE YOU. <WATER IS OUR NUMBER ONE COMPETITOR...WATER> BOTTLE WATER CONSUMPTION WAS FORECAST TO  REACH 391 BILLIOIN LITERS BY 2017. A SHARP JUMP FROM THE 212 BILLION LITERS CONSUMED IN 2007.  WHILE BOTTLED WATER IS GROWING IN POPULARITY,  IDFA SAYS ITS LOOKING INTO  CHANGES IN CONSUMER  BUYING HABITS.   TODAY WE  HAVE  OVER 15  CHOICES.  WE HAVE  A   CHANG​E IN  SOCIETY.  WE'RE NOT  SITTING  DOWN FOR  BREAKFAST  LIKE WE&n​bsp; WERE  IN THE  70S  WITH EGGS  AND  BACON A  GLASS  OF&n​bsp;MILK   OR  MAYBE LIKE  WE  WERE IN  THE  80S OR  90S&nbs​p; WITH  A  BOWL OF   CEREAL  AND BANANA  AND  GLASS MILK &n​bsp;AND  MILK OVER  THE   SYRUP. WE'RE  NOW  GRAB AND  GO. > IT'S A GRAB AND GO MENTALITY THAT INDUSTRIES - LIKE  DAIRY- ARE CATERING TO WITH MILK PRODUCTS THAT HAVE EXTENDED SHELF LIFE AND ARE EASY TO CONSUME ON THE RUN.  I  THINK WE'RE  TRYING  TO SEE  THAT  WE'RE SEEING  IT  IN  THE  YOGURT  SIDE MORE  THE  MORE DRINKABLE​  YOGURTS.  WE'RE  SEEING  THAT  AND SQUEEZE  POUCHES. > IT'S NOT JUST A CHANGE IN THE PRODUCT, BUT ALSO A CHANGE IN THE PACKAGING, ADDING TO THE NEED TO  COMPETE WITH BOTTLED WATER'S CHANGE IN  APPEARANCE. DO  YOU  WANT IN  A  SQUARE BOTTON  OR  DO YOU  ​WANT  IN  IN  A  ROUND BOTTLE?  THE  E DO  YOU  WANT ON​E  WITH  A FLIP  LID.   YOU WANT  ONE  WITH A  SCREW &n​bsp;LID THOSE  ALL  THINGS UNTIL  WE   STEP BACK  AND  THINK ABOU​T  THOSE.  THAT'S INNOVATION  NOT  JUST IN  THE  PRODUCT. THAT'S&nb​sp; INNOVATION  IN PACKAGING.  AND  WE GOT   TO  THINK ABOUT  THA​T  IN  TERMS  OF DAIRY.>  HOWEVER, CERTAIN MILK PRODUCTS NOW CONTAIN A  HEALTH-DESIRED INGREDIENT THAT BOTTLE WATER  DOESN'T HAVE.  SO WE'RE  SEEING  MILK WITH  EXTRA  PROTEIN LEVELS.  WE'RE  SEEING INNOVATION  IN  FAIR LIFE  OF  THE&n​bsp;ULTRA  FILTERED  MILK  WHERE  WE HAVE  EXTRA  PROTEIN  IT'S THAT ADDED PROTEIN PROVIDING A NEW REVENUE  STREAM FOR PRODUCERS.  THE 80S  WE  WERE PAYING  FARMERS  TO TAKE  THE  WHEY  STREAM  FROM  A CHEESE  PLANT.  IT&​nbsp;WAS  WASTE  TODAY WE'RE   ISOLATING  PROTEIN TRYSTING  LACTOSE  WE​'RE ISOLATED  MANY   COMPOUNDS AND  OTHER  COMPOUNDS WE  HAVEN'T &n​bsp;YET IDENTIFIED.  AND  THAT'S NOW  AN  INCOME STREAM  > THE CONFUSION WITH CONSUMERS ALSO STARTS AT  HOME. A RECENT SURVEY BY THEINNOVATION CENTER  FOR U-S DAIRY  FOUND 7 PERCENT OF ALL AM ERICAN  ADULTS THINK CHOCOLATE MILKCOMES FROM BROWN  COWS. THAT'S 16 POING 4 MILLION CONSUMERS WHO  HAVE NO IDEA HOW THEIR MILK IS PRODUCED.  AND IT'S THAT CONFUSION THAT GROUPS LIKE THE  NATIONAL MILK PRODUCERS FEDERATION ARE TRYING  TO HELP CLEAR UP WITH EDUCATION.  <GOERGE, CALM DOWN, YOUR MILK IS GMO FREE. BUT ALL MILK IS GMO FREE. YOU KNOW IT AND I KNOW IT BUT  NOONE ELSE DOES> DAIRY FARMERS AREFIGHTING BACK AGAINST  DECEPTIVE ADVERTISING-- AND USINNG HUMOR TO GET  THE INDUSTRY'S POINT ACROSS THE VIDEO IS THE NEWEST PIECE OF THE INDUSTRY'S  PEEL BACK THE LABEL CAMPAIGN. THE VIDEO FATURES  ACTORS MIMICKING FOOD EXECUTIVES, DISCUSSIGN  TERMS LIKE NON-GMO AND NATURAL. ACCORDING TO  THE NATIONAL MIK PRODUCERS FEDERATION, THE CAMPAIGN'S GLOAL IS TO PROMOTE TRUTH AND TRANSPARENCY IN FOOD MARKETING.  LET'S GET THESE. THEY SAY ALL NATURAL, THAT MEANS THEY'RE HEALTHY.  THEY'RE POTOTAO CHIPS, THEY CAN'T BE HEALTHY,K READ THE LABEL,T HEY  ARE OT SUPPOSE TO LIE,> THE CAMPAIGN THAT STARTED IN AUGUST IS  LAUNCHING THE INDUSTRY'S MISSION TO QUINCH A  CHANGE IN DEMAND.  I THINK  THE  OTHER THING  IS  CONSUMERS ARE  LOOKING  FOR  CLEANER  LA​BELS  SHORTER LABELS  SIMPLE  LABELS LABELS  WITH   INGREDIENTS THAT  ​YOU  UNDERSTAND. I  THINK  THAT  IS  ONE OF  THE   MAJOR EXP​LANATIONS  IN  MY MIND  IS  WHY  WOULD  SHE WANT   WISH &nbs​p;THEY WERE  BUTTER  KNOW . > N-M-P-F SAYS ITS ALSO WORKING TO MAKE SURE  THERE'S NOT UNFAIRLY LABALED PRODUCTS ONT EH  MARET TODAY.   <SO WHAT OUR FOCUS HSA BEEN, AS WE SEE THE RISE OF THESE  IMITATION DAIRY PREODUCTS MADE FROM PLANT SOURCES, THAT PEOPLE UNDERSTAND THAT THEY ARE NOT GETTING THE SAME AMOUTN OF  NUTRITION WHEN THEY BUY ALMOND BEVERAGE OR A NUT JICE AS WHEN  THEY ARE BUYUING REAL MILK> THE ALTERNATIVES MAY BE EATING INTO DEMAND...   BUT QUANTIFYING THE AMOUNT IS SOMETHING THAT'S  STILL IN THE WORKS.  <ONE THING WE'RE TRYING TO TEASE OUT RIGHT NOW FROM RESERACH IS  HOW MUCH OF THE RISE, AND IT'S BEEN A RISE THAT'S BEEN TALKED ABOUT A LOT OIN THE MEDIA, BUT IN TERMS OF THE MARKET PLCE, THESE  ALT MILKS ARE MAYBE 6 OR 7 PERCENT OF THE OVERALL WHITE BEVERAGE  MARKET> <AND THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF THAT IS NEW PEOPLE BUYING  PRODUCTS WHERE THEY WOUDN'T BUY REAL MILK ANYWAY, OR ARE THEY  INDEED SHIFTING AWAY FROM TRADITIONAL REAL MILK AND MOVING TOWARD THE PLANT BASED, FAKE MILK> IT'S WHOLESOME PRODUCTS DAIRY GROUPS SAY GIVE  THEIR PRODUCTS A COMPETITIVE EDGE.   <AND A LOT OF THAT HAS TO DO WITH GETTING THE PRODUCT INT EH PLACES  WHERE PEOPLE ARE GOING TO CONSUME IT, WHETHER THAT'S IN TEH  SCHOOL LUNMCH PROGRAM OR SPORTING EVENTS, IT'S REMINDING PEOPLE THAT MILK IS A FOOD AND IT PROVIDES A NUTRIITNAL PROFILE THAT A LOT OF  OTHER FOODS CAN'T REPLICATE>  DYKES SAYS IT'S A CONVERSATION ALSO ENTERING THE  FARM BILL, WITH ID-D-F-A PUSHING TO GET MORE DAIRY  INTO SNAP.   THERE'S NOTHING  AS  NUTRITIOUS AS  A  GLASS OF  MILK.   ONLY ONE  IN  10 AMERICANS  ARE  ​;GETTING THE  RECOMMENDED   THREE SERVINGS  A  DAY OF  DAIRY  ABOUT&nb​sp;NEARLY  HALF  THE  HOUSEHOLD  SNAP  RECIPIENT HOUSEHOLDS  HAVE  CHILDREN​. SO  WE   THINK IT'S  GOOD  POLICY WE  THINK  IT'S GOOD&​nbsp; NUTRITION. > HE SAYS THE MOVE WOULD INCENTIVIZE THOSE  CONSUMERS TO FOLLOW THE SUGGESTED DIETARY GUILDELINES.  SO  I WE'RE  RECOMMENDING  THREE SERVINGS  A  DAY WE   SHOULD ​; INCENTIVIZE PEOPLE  TO  GET TO  330  A DAY  RATHER  THAN A ​; LIST  OF PRODUCTS  THAT  ARE PROHIBITED  FOR  SNAP RECIPIENTS.  &nbs​p;SO  WE ARE  ABOUT  EXPANDING CHOICE  RATHER  THAN LIMITING   CHOICE.​  > EXPANDING CHOICE THAT COULD SERVE UP NEW  OPTIONS TO ALL CONSUMERS, WITH THE ULTIMATE  GOAL OF DRIVING NEW DEMAND AROUND THE GLOBE  IF IT'S NOT DRUMMING UP NEW DEMAND, WHAT WILL IT  TAKE TO DRIVE MILK PRICES HIGHER? MIKE NORTH OF COMMODITY RISK MANAGEMENT GROUP REJOINS ME  FROM TEH TRACK NEXT TO SET THE LANDCAPE OF U-S  DAIRY AND TALK ABOUT PRICE POTENTIAL IN THE  MONTHS AHEAD. 

ROUNDTABLE 2
BACK NOW FROM THE INDIANAPOLIS 500 SPEEDWAY WHERE  MILK IS CERTAINLY CELEBRATED AT THE END OF THIS RACE. AND EVEN  THOUGH WE'RE CELEBRATING MILK TODAY WE KNOW THAT 2018 HAS BEEN DIFFICULT FOR A LOT OF MILK PRODUCERS. WE'VE SEEN PRODUCERS  LOSE THEIR CONTRACTS WITH CERTAIN MILK BUYERS. I'VE HEARD SOME  FOLKS COMPARE THIS TO THE WAY THE PORK INDUSTRY WAS IN THE 1990S. DO YOU THINK THAT'S THE DAIRY LANDSCAPE TODAY. MIKE I  DON'T THINK SO. IF YOU GO BACK TO EVEN TO THAT TO THE 80S IN THE  DAIRY INDUSTRY WE WENT THROUGH HARD TIMES THEN WE HAD PEOPLE LEAVING THE SPACE. THERE WAS A WHOLE HERD BUYOUT PROGRAM THAT  THE GOVERNMENT OFFERED AS AN EXIT STRATEGY FOR DIFFERENT  PRODUCERS. TODAY WE'RE SEEING LOW MARGINS WE'RE SEEING  DEMAND PROFITABILITY AND THAT'S NOT UNCOMMON IN THE FIRST PART OF  THE YEAR. WE'VE SEEN THIS BEFORE WHERE PRICES HAVE BECOME  DEPRESSED. THE BIG THING ABOUT THIS YEAR IS THAT WE PUT THIS YEAR'S LOW PRICES ON THE TAIL END OF TWO YEARS OF MEDIOCRE TO LOW  PRICES AND THAT'S CAUSED THE LOT OF YOU KNOW EQUITY LOSS OVER  THOSE YEARS AND A LITTLE BIT OF COMPRESSION ON FARM FINANCES. SO YOU KNOW AS WE TALK ABOUT THE LANDSCAPE MOVING FORWARD  THOUGH PRICES ARE ON THE WAY BACK UP. PEOPLE ARE MOVING BACK  TOWARDS PROFITABILITY. IT REALLY WILL BE A MATTER NOW OF OF OF WHAT WE DO NEXT. YOU KNOW THE HOG INDUSTRY MOVED TOWARDS VERTICAL  INTEGRATION WE SAW A LOT OF CORPORATE OWNERSHIP FOR LACK OF A  BETTER PHRASE MOVE IN AND SOAK UP DIFFERENT FACILITIES FROM TOP TO  BOTTOM THROUGH THE ENTIRE CHAIN. YOU'RE NOT SEEING THAT IN THE  DAIRY INDUSTRY.   THERE'S A VERY BIG SEPARATION BETWEEN THE PROCESSORS  ANDTHE PRODUCERS. THERE ARE A LITTLE BIT OF A PROCESSOR OWNED  DAIRY FARMS BUT IT'S A VERY VERY SMALL PIECE OF THE BIG PUZZLE.  WELL PRICES THE PAIN POINT RIGHT NOW AND WE HAVE SEEN BETTER  PRICES AS OF LATE. IS THAT JUST STRICTLY DUE TO EXPORTS. I MEAN HE WAS REALLY THAT WHAT'S DRIVING DAIRY PRICES RIGHT NOW. ABSOLUTELY.  WE HAD A REALLY GOOD RUN THE FIRST QUARTER. WE'RE WAITING ON APRIL  NUMBERS YET BUT THAT LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY DECENT MONTH. BOTTOM LINE IS IS THAT AS WE TALK ABOUT THE THE THE LANDSCAPE THE GLOBAL  ECONOMY HAS BEEN VERY STRONG THIS YEAR. THERE'S BEEN AN UPTICK  IN INTEREST FOR DAIRY PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT SOUTHEAST ASIA FOR ONE  BUT ALSO IN PLACES LIKE THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA HIGHER  CRUDE OIL PRICES HAVE PUT MORE REVENUE IN THEIR ECONOMIES. THEY'VE BEEN BUYING MORE MILK POWDERS AND PROTEINS.  ABSOLUTELY. SO WE'VE SEEN GROWING INTEREST THERE. IS THAT  SOMETHING WE FORECAST I MEAN IS THAT SOMETHING IS THAT A  DEMAND PIECE THAT WE SAW COMING. WE TALK ABOUT IT BECAUSE  WE'VE SEEN IT HAPPEN BEFORE BUT IT'S VERY HARD TO PREDICT  BECAUSE YOU DON'T KNOW EXACTLY HOW THEY'RE GOING TO RESPOND. WHAT THEY'RE GOING TO DEMAND FIRST. BUT WE SAW THIS ON THE LAST  RUN IN CRUDE AND SO AS CRUDE OIL PRICES CAME DOWN THEIR DEMAND  SOFTENED. NOW THAT IT'S ON THE WAY BACK UP AND WE HAVE 71 AND A HALF DOLLAR CRUDE WE'RE SEEING AGAIN SOME INCREASE INTEREST FOR  DAIRY PRODUCTS. WE HAVE SEEN BETTER MILK PRICES BUT ARE THEY  EVEN AT BREAKEVEN RIGHT NOW.   MIKE I MEAN WE HAVE A LOT OF GROUND THAT WE NEED TO GAIN  TO GET BACK UP EVEN TO BREAKEVEN PRICES. AND SO THAT LOOKS A  LITTLE DIFFERENT NOW TOO BECAUSE AS WE'VE GONE THROUGH THE LAST  12 MONTHS WE'VE SEEN A GENERAL DETERIORATION OF ON FARM PREMIUM IF WE MAKE A GREEN PARALLEL WE CALL IT BASIS. OKAY.  RIGHT. SO THE PRICES THAT ARE PAID ABOVE AND BEYOND THE BASE  LEVELS THAT ARE THAT YOU SEE ON THE BOARD THAT THE USDA  ANNOUNCES EVERY MONTH THERE'S BEEN A PREMIUM THAT'S HISTORICALLY ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER MIDWEST THAT'S BEEN PAID  ABOVE AND BEYOND THAT. THOSE HAVE SHRUNK AS GREATER MILK VOLUMES HAVE BEEN PRESENT PROCESSORS AS THEY'VE HAD TO GO  BACK AND SELL MILK INTO THE OPEN MARKET AT A DISCOUNT HAVE TAKEN  TOO STEEP OF A LOSS AND AS A RESULT PREMIUMS HAVE SOFTENED OVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST YEAR. SO NOW AS PRICES HAVE RISEN THE  FUTURE'S VALUES THAT WE'RE LOOKING AT TODAY EVEN WITH CURRENT  VALUES AROUND 15 DOLLARS DON'T QUITE GET US TO THAT BREAKEVEN POINT BUT BY THE TIME WE GET TO SUMMER AND WE'RE LOOKING AT 16  16 1/2 THOSE VALUES DO I KNOW WE'VE SEEN THAT DEMAND COME ONBOARD A LITTLE EARLIER THAN NORMAL AND SOMETHING THAT WE SAW  LAST YEAR AS WELL. BUT AS WE GET LATER IN THE YEAR WE TYPICALLY  DEMAND FOR CHEESE AND OTHER MILK PRODUCTS REALLY PICKS UP LATER INTO THE INTO THE HOLIDAY SEASON. DO YOU THINK IT CAN KEEP THIS  PACE. WELL THAT'S A THAT'S A BIG QUESTION MARK TIME. THE REALITY IS  LAST YEAR WE HAD A REALLY STRONG START DEMAND LOOKED REALLY GOOD  AND THEN IT SOFTENED OR MAYBE A BETTER PHRASE.   IT DIDN'T LIVE UP TO ITS EXPECTATIONS FOR THE THIRD QUARTER AND AS A RESULT WE DIDN'T SEE THE DRAWDOWNS IN INVENTORY THE WAY WE  HAD HOPED. AND SO IT WAS KIND OF A VERY FLATTENING EVENT FOR THE  MARKET AND IT FORECAST SOME PRETTY NEGATIVE PRICE FORWARD INTO  2018. SO IT'S THE BIG START WE HAVE NOW. WE'RE HOPING THAT  EXPORTS CAN HELP GIVE US A LITTLE BIT OF A NUDGE TO KEEP THIRD QUARTER STRONGER REALLY QUICK BESIDES EXPORTS. WHAT ELSE DO WE  NEED TO DRIVE MILK PRICES HIGHER. WHAT ELSE DO WE NEED TO GET  OUR DAIRY FARMERS PROFITABLE AGAIN. WELL THE REALITY IS IS PROFITABILITY IS A FUNCTION OF BOTH FEED COSTS LARGELY ON THE INPUT SIDE AND MILK PRICE. AND SO IF WE HAVE A RUNAWAY ON THE GRAIN  BARN. MARK THAT'S GOING TO KEEP PRESSURE ON THAT PROFITABILITY ALL  THROUGH THE SUMMER. SO ONE THING THAT WOULD BE HELPFUL IS A GREAT CROP YEAR IN ABUNDANT SUPPLY OF FEEDSTOCK. IF THERE'S IF  THERE'S PLENTY OF FEED IN THE COUNTRY THAT WILL HELP MAINTAIN A LITTLE  BETTER PROFITABILITY GOING INTO THE FOURTH QUARTER. ALL RIGHT MIKE  NORTH THANK YOU SO MUCH. JUST THE CARS RACE BY US, JUST A GREAT  DAY TO CELEBRATE MILK HERE AT INDY WONDERFUL WONDERFUL THINK WHEN WE CAN CELEBRATE MILK AND DAIRY. ALL RIGHT MIKE THANK YOU.  AND SPEAKING OF CELEBRATING MILK AND DAIRY. NEXT UP WE HAVE THE  MILK WOMAN. THAT WOMAN WHO IS GOING TO HAND OVER THAT COVETED GLASS THAT WINNING GLASS OF MILK ON RACE DAY. WE'LL  INTRODUCE YOU TO HER NEXT.  

INDY 500 DAIRY WOMAN
IT'S A COVETED TITLE... FOR THE DAIRYMAN OR DAIRY  WOMAN SELECTED TO HAND OVER THAT WINNING  GLASS OF MILK ON RACE DAY. WHILE THE SPOTLIGHT IS  ON DAIRY FOR A MOMENT ON RACEDAY, DAIRY HAS  BEEN IN THE SPOTLIGHT ALL YEAR.. BUT OFTEN FOR  THE STRUGGLES THE INDUSTRY FACES TODAY. IT'S  THOSE STRUGGLES THAT THIS YEAR'S INDY 500 MILK WOMAN TURNED INTO OPPORTUNITY. BETSY JIBBEN HAS HER STORY.  STATIONED IN LA PORTE COUNTY IS TRIPLE M DAIRY...  WHERE MILKING AND OTHER FAMILIAR CHORES TAKE  PLACE...  WHAT MAY SET THIS PARLOR A PART IS IT'S LONGEVITY..   <1909 THIS FARM STARTED,"> AND THE WOMAN WHO HELPS RUN IT.  "SHE CAME BACK IN THE PARLOR. SHE MISSED US!"> THAT'S KIM MINICH <"THERE'S LUKE. HI HONEY."> WHO ALONG WITH HER HUSBAND LUKE <"THIS IS THE 4H PEN. SO THE ONES THAT THE KIDS TAKE TO THE FAIR. WE  KIND OF KEEP SEPERATE."> <"UNIQUE, UTOPIA, THERE'S BLOSSOM,">  MAKE UP THE OPERATION WITH THEIR CATTLE  AND KIDS. THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND,  KIM WILL REPRESENT THE DAIRY INDUSTRY AS THE  OFFICIAL MILK WOMAN OF THE INDIANAPOLIS 500,  CONTINUING THE TRADITION OF AN INDIANA DAIRY  FARMER HANDING A COLD GLASS OF MILK TO THE WINNING DRIVER IN VICTORY LANE.  A TRADITION THAT DATES BACK TO 1933 WHEN WINNER LOUIS MEYER REQUESTED A COLD GLASS OF BUTTERMILK TO QUENCH HIS THIRST. <"THE WORLD SEES THE GUY TAKING THE BIG DRINK OF MILK AT THE END  OF THE RACE. ANYTIME WE CAN BRING AWARENESS TO MILK IS GREAT.  PERSONALLY, FOR ME, I'M HOPING TO BE ON DANCING WITH THE STARS  AFTER MY BIG DEBUT. I'D TOTALLY DO IT IF THEY ASK,"> IT'S A PLATFORM WHICH FITS HER PASSION AND  INFECTIOUS PERSONALITY.  <WILL YOU VOTE FOR ME? ."> MINICH MAY TEASE ABOUT THE FAME AND FORTUNE <"YOU KNOW, I TOLD MY KIDS, THIS IS PROBABLY THE LAST TIME THEY'RE  EVER GOING TO THINK I'M COOL. I'M VERY EXICTED AND HONORED TO BE  ABLE TO DO THAT,"> BUT JOKES ASIDE,  SHE UNDERSTANDS THE RESPONSIBILITY OF SHARING THE INDUSTRY AND THE PASSION SHE MARRIED INTO  YEARS AGO.       <"LUKE AND I MOVED UP HERE ABCK IN 2009 AND JOINED INTO THE  FAMILY BUSINESS AND WE'RE ABLE TO RAISE OUR FAMILY HERE. IT'S BEEN  ABSOLUTELY WONDERFUL,"> A MESSAGE SHE CONTINUES TO CONVEY AS A NURSE PRACTIONER OFF THE FARM. "I'M ABLE TO TALK TO MY PATIENTS ABOUT THE IMPORTANCE OF CALCIUM  IN MILK, I FEEL COMFORTABLE DOING THAT NOW BECAUSE I KNOW IT'S  SAFE AND I KNOW WHERE IT COMES FROM,"> NOW THE WOMAN WHO GREW UP IN THE SUBURBS...  <"I GREW UP ABOUT AN HOUR FROM THE TRACK. I USED TO GO WITH MY DAD TO THE TIME TRIALS."> WILL SOON HAVE A REFRESHINGLY DIFFERENT  CONNECTION TO THE TRACK. <"OH IT'S PRETTY EXCITING. I'M REALLY LOOKING FORWARD TO IT. IT'S A  GREAT WAY TO REPRESENT DAIRY. IT'S FUN FOR OUR FAMILY,"> FROM THE SPOTLIGHT AND BACK BEHIND THE SCENES -  THIS YEAR'S INDY 500 MILKWOMAN IS READY FOR THE  RACE.  REPORTING IN LA PORTE COUNTY, INDIANA, I'M BETSY  JIBBEN.  THE DRIVERS WILL TAKE A POLL AHEAD OF TIME OVER  WHICH TYPE OF MILK EACH PREFERS BETWEEN WHOLE,  2 PERCENT OR SKIM. KIM WILL AWARD THE WINNING  DRIVER HTE BOTTLE OF MILK AND THE ROOKIE MILK  MAN, WILL PROVIDE THE WINNING CHIEF MECHANIC AND  T EAM OWNER WITH THEIR BOTTLES ON RACE DAY. WHEN WE COME BACK, WE TAKE A TRIP TO JOHN'S  FARM FRO THIS WEEK'S CUSTOMER SUPPORT.  

CUSTOMER SUPPORT
THE HOUSE VERSION OF THE FARM BILL FLATLINED LAST WEEK, WHICH LEAVES ANY MORE UNANSWERED  QUESTIONS. HERE'S JOHN PHIPPS WITH MORE.  MY COMMENTS ON THE FARM BILL ELICITED SOME RESPONSES. FIRST, FROM DEAN IN SCOTT COUNTY, IOWA.  "I HAVE A VERY HILLY FIELD OF ABOUT 10 ACRES THAT I'D LIKE TO PUT IN  CRP. THE LOCAL FSA SAYS THEY HAVE NO DETAILS AND THE TOTAL  ACREAGE IS FROZEN UNTIL THE 2018 FARM BILL GOES THROUGH WHICH IS  EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE CRP ACREAGE. OTHER THAN THAT, I AGREE  WITH YOU - NO ONE SEEMS TO WANT TO TRY TO UNDERSTAND ALL THE  LEGALESE IN THE FARM BILL. APPARENTLY, IT IS BEING STALLED BY THE DEMOCRATS DUE TO CHANGES IN THE FOOD STAMP PROVISIONS." THANKS FOR YOUR INPUT. I SUGGESTED FARMERS LIKE ME WEREN'T  PAYING MUCH ATTENTION TO THE LEGALESE AS YOU CALL IT, BUT THERE  ARE PLENTY OF OTHER EYES SCANNING EACH LINE. FROM AG  RESEARCHERS WORRIED FUNDING TO LANDOWNERS LIKE YOU TRYING TO ADD  CRP ACRES, DIFFERENT OBSERVERS ARE SCRUTINIZING PARTICULAR PARTS,  SO THE INDIFFERENCE OF CORN AND SOY GROWERS DOESN'T MEAN THE  LEGISLATION ISN'T BEING MONITORED CLOSELY. AND WHILE IT'S TRUE NO DEMOCRATS VOTED FOR THE FARM BILL, LARGELY DUE TO WORK  REQUIREMENTS FOR SNAP RECIPIENTS, THE BILL FAILED IN THE HOUSE,  WHERE REPUBLICANS HAVE A CLEAR MAJORITY, SO THEY SHOULDN'T HAVE NEEDED ANY D VOTES. THE SENATE IS A DIFFERENT MATTER, OF COURSE.  IN ADDITION, THE HANGUP WITH CONSERVATIVES WAS OVER IMMIGRATION  MORE THAN SNAP. FROM PHILIP W. HAYMAKER: "THIS WEEK'S SEGMENT ON THE FARM BILL WAS INTERESTING. DO WE  EVEN NEED A FARM BILL? IS THIS A CASE OF HOLDING FARMERS HOSTAGE TO POLITICAL WINDS? CAN'T PROGRAMS LIKE SNAP BE SEPARATED OUT  AND HANDLED IN A SEPARATE BILL?" PHILIP, YOU JUST VOICED A QUADRENNIAL FEAR FOR MOST FARMERS:  SEPARATING SNAP FROM THE AG PORTION OF THE FARM BILL. IT IS  GENERALLY ACCEPTED, BUT NEVER TESTED THAT WITHOUT THE SNAP PORTION OF THE FARM BILL, THERE WOULD BE FEW IF ANY FARM PROGRAMS,  SINCE A SMALL AND DECLINING PORTION OF HOUSE MEMBERS HAVE  FARMERS IN THEIR DISTRICT. FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH, I AGREE WITH YOU. SNAP SHOULD BE TRANSFERRED TO THE DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND  HUMAN SERVICES, AND INCLUDED IN ITS APPROPRIATIONS FOR OTHER  WELFARE PROGRAMS, FOR REASONS OF LOGIC AND EFFICIENCY. IF THAT MEANS FARM SUBSIDIES DISAPPEAR, THAT'S A WIN-WIN.   UP NEXT, SOME VIEWER PHOTOS TO SHARE NEXT.

FROM THE FARM
WELCOME BACK, TO THE RACETRACK THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, WELL, WE SOME PHOTOS TO SHARE  CONNIE DUNCAN SAYS IT WAS SHIPPING DAY ON THE RANCH, WITH A  GREAT VIEW. SHE SNAPPED THIS AS SHE WAS HEADING TO THE CORRALS  TO SORT STEERS FROM HEIFERS, WEIGHT THEM THEN LOAD THE CALVES TO  SEND THEM TO HER NEW HOME.   AND CHECK THIS OUT… IN HONOR OF MEMORIAL DAY, SOME FARMERS  PUT THEIR PATRIOTIC HATS ON. JR EDMONSON POSTED THIS PICTURE.  APPARENTLY, HIS DAD PLANTED USDA IN THEIR FIELD. JR SAID IT WOULD  BE MUCH BETTER IF YOU COULD ACTUALLY SEE IT. SO, THEY GRABBED A  DRONE, AND SNAPPED THIS SHOT. ALL RIGHT WELL THANK YOU FOR JOINING US ON THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THE INDIANAPOLIS 500 SPEEDWAY HERE IN INDIANAPOLIS  INDIANA. 

CLOSE
AND THANK YOU AGAIN TO ALL OF OUR VIEWERS AND THOSE  WHO SERVED THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS A TIME TO DEFINITELY  REFLECT AND CELEBRATE THOSE INDIVIDUALS. THANKS FOR JOINING US. BE SURE TO JOIN US NEXT WEEKEND AS WE WORK TO BUILD ON OUR  TRADITION. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND EVERYONE.  

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