USFR Weekly Recap - May 5-6, 2018

May 5, 2018 03:30 AM
 

TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
MAY 5-6, 2018

HEADLINES

WELCOME TO THIS SPECIAL EDITION OF U.S. FARM REPORT FROM OUR NATION'S CAPITAL. I'M TYNE  MORGAN, AND IT'S A SHOW FOCUSED ON POLICY THIS FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY. HOPE  THE TRADE TENSIONS CAN TURN INTO PRODUCTIVE TRADE TALKS.  WE SIT DOWN WITH THE KEY AG ADVISOR AT THE  WHITE HOUSE WHO SAYS AGRICULTURE’S MANTRA OF “DO NO HARM” WITH TRADE IS SETTING THE BAR TOO LOWA FOCUS IS ON THE FARM BILL, WHAT'S THE LIKELIHOOD  THE 2018 FARM BILL WILL CROSS THE FINISH LINE THIS YEAR? WE HAVE TWO WASHINGTON INSIDERS TO DIVE INTO THE POLICY IMPACTING YOU. AND IN JOHN’S WORLD… 

PLANTING PROGRESS
FARM BILL, NAFTA, TRADE ISSUES WITH CHINA AND THE R-F-S. THERE’S NO SHORTAGE OF TOPICC CONSUMING HEADLINES FOR AGRICULTURE HERE IN WASHINGTON. WE’LL GET INTO OUR POLICY DISCUSSION SHORTLY ON  TEH SHOW. BUT BEFORE WE DO THAT, LET'S THROW IT BACK TO THE NEWSROOM WHERE CLINTON GRIFFITHS  HAS THIS WEEK'S TOP HEADLINES. CLINTON.  THANKS TYNE.ANOTHER BUSY WEEK IN THE AG SECTOR.LETS START WITH PLANTING PROGRESS...AS FARMERS MAKE TRACKS AHEAD OF THIS WEEK'S STORMS.CORN PLANTINGS REACHED 17-PERCENT AS OF MONDAY, UP 12 POINTS IN A WEEK'S TIME, BUT TEN POINTS BEHIND THE FIVE YEAR AVERAGE.ILLINOIS FARMERS MADE BIG GAINS.... A THIRD OF THE CROP IS PLANTED, THAT'S UP 28 POINTS IN A WEEK.IOWA WENT FROM ZERO TO 17 PERCENT THIS WEEK.CORN PLANTING HAS NOT STARTED IN MINNESOTA, NORTH DAKOTA OR SOUTH DAKOTA.NORMALLY, THEY WOULD HAVE STARTED BY NOW.SOYBEAN PLANTINGS REACHED FIVE PERCENT WHICH TIES THE FIVE YEAR AVERAGE.SOYBEANS ARE GOING IN ACROSS THE THREE 'EYE' STATES.IN KANSAS - AS THE WHEAT QUALITY COUNCIL TOUR WRAPS UP- JUST TWO PERCENT IS HEADED, WELL BEHIND THE FIVE-YEAR AVERAGE.

WHEAT TOUR
SCOUTS ON THE WINTER WHEAT TOUR VERIFYING THAT IMMATURITY...AND PLENTY OF CROP STRESS PUTTING THE FINAL YIELD AT A 37 PER BUSHELS PER ACRE AVERAGE THAT'S BELOW THE 5 YEAR TREND OF NEARLY 41 BUSHELS.IN KANSAS THE WHEAT CROP IS ON PACE TO BE ONE OF THE SMALLEST SINCE 1989.THE KANSAS CITY FUTURES CAME WITHIN A COUPLE OF CENTS OF THEIR MARCH HIGHS AROUND 5.65 SO REALLY A STRONG PERFORMANCE. WE'VE GOT GLOBAL WEATHER EVENTS GOING ON AROUND THE WORLD AND THAT'S USUALLY WHAT IT TAKES TO SUSTAIN A RALLY IN WHEAT AND THAT'S WHAT WE'VE SEEN HERE SO FAR.

TRADE WITH CHINA
U-S TRADE NEGOTIATORS RETURN HOME FROM CHINA THIS WEEK FOLLOWING TWO DAYS OF TALKS.THE U.S. BROUGHT AN 8 POINT PLAN FOCUSED ON TRYING TO CUT THE TRADE DEFICIT, REDUCE TARIFFS, AND SEEKS A PROMISE FROM BEIJING IT WON'T RETALIATE AGAINST U.S. PENALTIES AND TRADERESTRICTIONS. CHINA CALLED THE PLAN UNFAIR. NO DEAL WAS MADE BUT TRADE LEADERS SAY IT WAS A VERY GOOD CONVERSATION...BOTH SIDES PROMISED TO KEEP TALKING. A NEW REPORT SHOWS THE TRADE GAP WITH CHINA IS UP 16 PERCENT IN Q-1 TO MORE THAN $91 BILLION.THIS WEEK, THE TOP EXECUTIVE WITH BUNGE SAYING CHINA HAS ESSENTIALLY STOPPED BUYING U-S SUPPLIES. OTHER ECONOMISTS SAY WHILE CHINA'S IMPORTS HAVE SLOWED BUT EXPORTS ARE GENERALLY LESS THIS TIME OF YEAR ANYWAY. FOR 2018-19, USDA SAYS CHINA'S TOTAL PURCHASES OF 1 MILLION TONS ARE THE SECOND LOWEST IN THE LAST SIX YEARS. 

PURDUE AG BAROMETER
UNCERTAINTY OVER UNFINISHED TRADE TALKS IS DRAGGING DOWN FARMER'S SENTIMENT ABOUT THE AG ECONOMY. THE PURDUE/CME GROUP AG ECONOMY BAROMETER FALLING TO 125 IN APRIL. THAT'S A TEN POINT DROP FROM A MONTH EARLIER. PRODUCERS ARE MORE NEGATIVE ABOUT FUTURE AG EXPORT PROSPECTS. WE SAW SOME OF THAT A MONTH AGO BUT IT WAS EXACERBATED IN THIS MONTH'S REPORT. I THINK THE PERCENTAGE OF PRODUCERS EXPECTING LOWER EXPORTS IN THE NEXT FIVE YEARS WERE 17 PERCENT THAT COMPARED TO 13 PERCENT A MONTH AGO MINTERT SAYS FARMERS BECAME NOTICEABLY MORE NEGATIVE ABOUT PROSPECTS FOR SOY PRICES DUE TO POTENTIAL LOSS OF MARKET TO CHINA. THE AG BAROMETER IS A MONTHLY SURVEY OF 400 AG PRODUCERS FROM ACROSS THE U-S. THAT'S A QUICK LOOK AT NEWS. TYNE BACK TO YOU.

TEASE
THANKS, CLINTON. WHEN WE COME BACK, WHAT FELT  LIKE SUMMER THIS WEEK – INLCLUDING THE NEALR 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES HERE IN D.C, BUT IT ALSO BROUGHT SEVERE WEATHER. WE’LL HAVE A CHECK OF WEATHER NEXT. AND WE SIT DOWN WITH A COUPLE WASHINGTON  INSIDERS TO DISCUSS EVERYTING FROM A POSSIBLE  FARM BILL TIMELINE, TO WHAT WOULD BE PLAN B  FOR  DAIRY IF A DAIRY DEAL ISN’T INCLUDED IN NAFTA 2.0. PLEASE, STAY WITH US. 

WEATHER
METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW  FROM BACK AT THE STUDIOS IN SOUTH BEND. MIKE, IT'S  FELT MORE LIKE SUMMER THAN SPRING IN D.C. THE  MAJORITY OF THIS WEEK. THE FIRST WARM SPELL  THYE'VE HAD ALL YEAR.  BUT IT ALSO BROUGHT SEVERE WEATHER AND TORNADOES ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS WEEK. OH THAT'S TRUE TINE IN MANY PARTS OF THE COUNTRY AND THAT'S WHY WE DID SEE THOSE SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAKS DURING THIS PAST WEEK. BUT I THINK THIS WEEK'S GOING TO BE A LOT CALMER AS WE'LL SHOW YOU COMING UP WITH OUR WEATHER MAPS. IN THE MEANTIME THE DROUGHT MONITOR. NOW OBVIOUSLY THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS WESTERN OKLAHOMA SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS COULD DESPERATELY USE SOME RAIN. I KNOW THERE'S BEEN SPOTTY STUFF OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS BUT JUST NOT ENOUGH TO HELP. AND IN FACT THAT EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT AREA HAS EXPANDED. LET'S GO BACK ONE MONTH AND SEE HOW IT WAS A SMALLER AREA AT THAT POINT. AND OVER THE PAST MONTH WE'VE SEEN THAT SLOWLY EXPAND. THINGS HAVE CONTRACTED A LITTLE BIT IN THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IS GOOD NEWS. AND THEY'VE CONTINUED VERY SLOWLY IMPROVE IN THE DAKOTAS AND ALSO NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. SO OUR MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER OR NOT THIS AREA OF SEVERE DROUGHT CONTINUES. FIRST OF ALL AND EXPAND SECOND OF ALL IT IS ALWAYS A CONCERN BECAUSE DROUGHT TENDS TO LEAD TO MORE DROUGHT HOT DRY WEATHER KEEPS YOU FROM GETTING MUCH RAIN TYPICALLY. SO WE NEED TO CHANGE THE WEATHER PATTERN AND WE HAVE OVER THE LAST WEEK WE STILL HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF A TROUGH AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. QUICK SHOT OF COOL AIR FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES IN THE NORTHEAST THEN THAT GOES AWAY MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WE'RE SEEING ANOTHER LITTLE TROUGH KIND OF DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST THAT GOES AWAY AND THEN WE SEE THE RIDGE BUILDING UP AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY REALLY HOT BY THE WAY. THAT WOULD BE DRY. NOW THIS COULD BE GOOD NEWS EVENTUALLY FOR THOSE DROUGHT AREAS IF WE CAN GET THIS TROUGH TO CUT OFF IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY YOU START TO GET PACIFIC MOISTURE EVEN INVOLVED AND THAT WOULD REALLY HELP THINGS OUT. LET'S GO DAY BY DAY AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS WEEK ON MONDAY WE'RE LOOKING FOR ALL WEEK SYSTEMS THIS WEEK THESE ARE JUST HIT AND MISS MOSTLY MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE NORTHEAST GREAT LAKES ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IT SHOULD BE WARM AND DRY FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY A FEW SHOWERS IN THE DAKOTAS UP INTO WESTERN EXCUSE ME PORTIONS OF CANADA BY WEDNESDAY THEN THAT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY THIS WILL NOT BE REAL HEAVY I DON'T BELIEVE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. COUPLE OF HIT AND MISS SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY BY FRIDAY. THEN WE'RE LOOKING AT THAT FIRST SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH A COLD FRONT DOWN TOWARD THE GULF COAST. THE AREAS OF SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS BUT AGAIN NOTHING RURAL HEAVY THERE. A COUPLE OF SPOTTY SHOWERS UP ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND ALSO JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND COLORADO IN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY THE OUTLOOK FOR TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF MINNESOTA. PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH FROM KANSAS NEBRASKA THROUGH MOST OF THE WEST GOING NEAR NORMAL ELSEWHERE 30 TO OUTLET FOR PRECIPITATION ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS LOUISIANA ON UP INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS EASTERN IOWA SOUTH FLORIDA. BUT BELOW NORMAL OUT WEST I'M HOPING FOR AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL IN T HOSE DROUGHT AREAS. TIME. 

TEASE
THANKS, MIKE. WHEN WE COME BACK, WE DIG INTO THE FARM BILL AND WHY IT MAY BE FINDING A COMPOMISE BETWEEN THE HOUSE AND SENATE’S VERIONS OF THE FARM BILL THAT COULD BE THE REAL OBSTACLE THIS YEAR. 

PLUS, WE HEAD TO THE WHITE HOUSE TO MEET THE PRESIDENT’S POINT PERSON ON AG WHO SAYS DESPTIE THE ANXIETY IN AG OVER TRADE, AGRICULTURE WILL COME OUT STRONGER IN THE END.

ROUNDTABLE 1
WELCOME BACK. WELL AS I MENTIONED BEFORE THE BREAK. CHANGING THINGS UP A LITTLE BIT. WE'RE NOT JUST TALKING ABOUT COMMODITY PRICES THIS WEEK REALLY FOCUSED ON POLICY. WITH SO MUCH GOING ON IN WASHINGTON TO DO THAT WE HAVE A COUPLE OF WASHINGTON INSIDERS RANDY RUSSELL OF THE RUSSELL GROUP AS WELL AS JIM WIESMEYER OUR FARM JOURNAL WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT. RANDY LET'S TALK ABOUT FARMBILL FIRST. SO MUCH GOING ON. WE'VE SEEN THE HOUSE IS VERY SIMPLE. WHAT'S THE LIKELIHOOD THAT WE COULD ACTUALLY GET A FARM BILL PASSED THIS YEAR. WELL YOU KNOW THE HOUSE IS GOING TO TAKE IT UP IT LOOKS LIKE A WEEK AFTER NEXT. AND I THINK THEY'LL GET THE VOTES TO PASS IT ON THE HOUSE FLOOR. IT'LL BE CLOSE. LOOKS LIKE THE SENATE WILL MARK IT UP IN COMMITTEE. PROBABLY I WOULD GUESS THE FIRST WEEK IN JUNE RIGHT AFTER MEMORIAL DAY WOULD BE MY BEST GUESS. GET IT ON THE HOUSE FLOOR SENATE FLOOR THIS SUMMER. I THINK THE REAL CHALLENGE IS GOING TO COME DOWN TO WHEN YOU HAVE TO RECONCILE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE HOUSE AND SENATE BILL OVER SNAP. THEY'RE GOING TO BE VASTLY DIFFERENT PROVISIONS ON SNAP WITH THE WORK REQUIREMENTS ETC. IN THE HOUSE BILL VERSUS A MORE MODEST TYPE OF CUT OVER IN THE SENATE BILL. SO IT'S WHEN IT GETS INTO CONFERENCE AND REALLY WE TRY TO WORK OUT THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE HOUSE AND THE SENATE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME ISSUES. OH YEAH. I THINK RANDY SPOT ON. IT WILL IT WILL DEPEND IN LARGE PART ON THE FOOD STAMP LANGUAGE AND WHETHER OR NOT A DEAL CAN BE WORKED OUT BETWEEN VERY DIFFERENT HOUSE AND SENATE BILLS AND GETTING SOME REFORM TO THE SNAP OR THE FOOD STAMP PROGRAM. AND IF THEY CAN'T THEN YOU'VE GOT A QUESTION YOU KNOW WHETHER OR NOT YOU KNOW WHETHER OR NOT THERE ARE ENOUGH HOUSE VOTES TO PASS A CONFERENCE REPORT PRIOR TO THAT THE HOUSE BILL ASSUMING THERE'S NO KILLER AMENDMENTS I AGREE WITH RANDY. IT SHOULD ALTHOUGH VERY TIGHT IT SHOULD JUST HAVE ENOUGH VOTES TO PASS THE HOUSE. ALREADY THE HOUSE WAS VERY CLEAR. I MEAN WHEN THEY CAME OUT WITH THEIR VERSION OF THE FARM BILL WE KNEW THAT THERE WERE GOING TO BE WORK REQUIREMENTS FOR SNAP WE KNEW SOME OF THESE OTHER CHANGES WERE COMING. BUT IT SEEMS LIKE THEY BROUGHT THAT BILL FORD KNOWING THAT THEY COULD NOT GET KEY DEMOCRATS TO SIGN ON. WELL I THINK THERE WAS A LOT OF RECORD ESTABLISHED ABOUT THE SNAP PROGRAM CHAIRMAN CONAWAY HELD DOZENS AND DOZENS OF HEARINGS ON THE SNAP PROGRAM SINCE HE TOOK OVER AS CHAIRMAN. SO I DO THINK THERE'S A HEARING RECORD ON THE WORK REQUIREMENTS AND THE TRAINING PROGRAMS THAT THEY PUT IN. BUT THERE IS A DECISION MADE THAT THE DEMOCRATS CANNOT SUPPORT THIS. AND WE'RE SEEING FOR THE FIRST TIME A STRAIGHT PARTISAN LIKELY A STRAIGHT PARTISAN VOTE ON A FARM BILL. IT'S UNFORTUNATE BUT THAT'S THE CARDS THAT YOU KNOW THAT THE CHAIRMAN IS GOING TO HAVE TO PLAY HERE. WE SAW A VERY PARTISAN VOTE IN THE HOUSE. DO YOU THINK WE'LL SEE A VERY PARTISAN VOTE IN THE SENATE. NO. YOU'LL HAVE A BIPARTISAN VOTE IN THE SENATE. IT WILL BE A RATHER TEPID CLEARLY EVOLUTIONARY NOT REVOLUTIONARY AT ALL. YOU KNOW SENATE BILL THE THE ISSUES ARE IN THE IN THE HOUSE. I'VE NEVER SEEN A MORE VISCERAL HOUSE A FARM BILL MARKUP THAN THE ONE WE JUST WENT THROUGH EVER. RANDY, DO YOU AGREEMENT YOU'VE BEEN WORKING ON THIS SINCE THE REAGAN ADMINISTRATION WAS YOUR FIRST FARM BILL REGIMES OLDER THAN I. BUT THIS IS BY A FARM BILL AND I KNOW WE'VE WE'VE HAD SOME VERY DIFFICULT DEBATES GOING BACK OVER TIME. I REMEMBER BACK WHEN WE DID FREEDOM TO FARM BACK IN THE MID 90S AND THAT WAS PROBABLY AS CLOSE AS I'VE SEEN IN TERMS OF A PARTISAN TYPE OF SITUATION. BUT HAVING A STRAIGHT PARTISAN VOTE I'VE NEVER SEEN THAT BEFORE. IF THE HOUSE AND SENATE CAN COME TO AGREEMENT ON ON ON SNAP AND THE FOOD PORTION OF THE BILL THE FARM PORTION OF THE BILL. DO YOU THINK THAT WE HAVE A LOT OF DIFFERENCES TO WORK OUT THERE. THERE WILL BE SOME DIFFERENCES. AND BUT YOU KNOW OFTENTIMES THAT'S A GOOD THING BECAUSE IT LEADS TO A STRONGER BILL. YOU HAVE DIFFERENT REGIONAL INTEREST. BUT THE BASIC CONSTRUCT OF THE BILL WITH OUR GOOD ELSIE AND THE LIKE IS GOING TO STAY THE SAME AS JIM SAID THIS IS AN EVOLUTIONARY FARM BILL NOT A REVOLUTIONARY FARM BILL SO I'M CONFIDENT THOSE DIFFERENCES CAN GET WORKED OUT BUT IT'S REALLY GOING TO BE THE SNAP ISSUE AND PARTICULARLY AS WE GO INTO NOVEMBER WITH A WITH AN ELECTION COMING UP THAT'S THAT MAKES IT A LITTLE DICEY WHETHER WE GET A BILL DONE THIS YEAR JIM. YOU KNOW AT THE END OF THE DAY WHICH VERSION DO YOU THINK WE END UP USING. WILL IT BE THE HOUSE'S VERSION WILL BE THE SENATE'S VERSION. IF YOU HAD TO BET TODAY WHAT WOULD YOU SAY. WELL THE VOTES ARE THERE YOU KNOW FOR THE SENATE THE VOTES ARE NOT IN THE SENATE AT ALL FOR THE HOUSE BILL ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOD STAMP AND IN OTHER AREAS NOT LIMITED TO THE FOOD STAMP BUT YOU KNOW PRIMARILY SO I WOULD LOOK FOR THE SENATE TO BE THE UNDERLYING BILL THAT THEY'LL CONFERENCE. WHAT'S REALISTIC THOUGH IF WE GET TO NOVEMBER AND WE STILL HAVEN'T WORKED THROUGH SOME OF THESE ISSUES I MEAN IS IT JUST SAFE TO SAY THEN BY THEN WE WILL NOT SEE A FARM BILL BUT REALLY WHAT'S THE TIMELINE HERE. WELL THERE'S STILL A POSSIBILITY OF HAVING A LAME DUCK SESSION AND A LOT OF THAT WILL DEPEND UPON WHAT HAPPENS THE FIRST WEEK IN NOVEMBER WHEN WE HAVE THE ELECTIONS. IF THE HOUSE WORK TO FLIP AND THE DEMOCRATS TAKE CONTROL YOU KNOW THAT MAY DICTATE THAT A HAS A ONE YEAR EXTENSION AND WE DEAL WITH IT IN THE NEXT SESSION OF CONGRESS. SO WE'LL JUST HAVE TO SEE A LOT OF IT WILL DEPEND UPON WHAT HAPPENS THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER. I WILL REMIND PEOPLE THOUGH YOU KNOW BACK IN THE 2014 FARM BILL WE HAD SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE HOUSE AND SENATE ON SNAP. THE HOUSE ORIGINALLY WAS A 36 BILLION DOLLARS IN CUTS THAT CUT IT BACK TO 20. THE SENATE WAS AT 4 BILLION AND THE CONFERENCE REPORT CAME OUT AT 8 BILLION. I THINK THAT KIND OF SITUATION IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN THIS TIME AROUND BECAUSE AGAIN IN THE IN THE SENATE IT'S GOT TO BE A BIPARTISAN VOTE. UNDER THEIR RULES JIM YOU AGREE WITH THAT AS LONG AS THERE'S SOME REFORM IN THE FOOD STAMP PROGRAM AND IT CAN BE IN THE LOWER ECHELON THING. BUT YOU HAVE TO GIVE SOME HOUSE LEADERS COVER ON ON ENTITLEMENT REFORM IF THAT'S THE CASE THEN IT CAN GET THROUGH. AND YOU WERE PROBABLY LOOKING AT A POST ELECTION SESSION. REAL QUICK RANDI WHAT IF WE DO SEE AN EXTENSION OF THE FARM BILL WE KNOW THERE ARE SOME PROGRAMS THAT WILL BE FOREFEND AND WE WILL NOT SEE FUNDING CONTINUED UNLESS SOME CHANGES HAPPEN. WHAT WOULD AN EXTENSION MEAN FOR U.S. AGRICULTURE. WELL YOU HIT ON A GREAT POINT AND THERE ARE SEVERAL PROGRAMS LIKE THE FOREIGN MARKET DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM THE MARKET ACCESS PROGRAM AND OTHERS THAT DO NOT HAVE A BASELINE. I THINK THERE'S LIKE 39 PROGRAMS THAT ADD UP TO ALMOST 4 BILLION DOLLARS OVER 10 YEARS THAT HAVE NO BASELINE THAT DON'T GET FUNDED IF THERE IS AN EXTENSION. SO T HAT'S NOT A TERRIFIC OUTCOME EITHER. AND ALSO I WOULD ARGUE FOR THOSE THAT WANT SNAP REFORM AN EXTENSION DOESN'T REFORM SNAP AT ALL. IT SIMPLY KEEPS THE CURRENT PROGRAM FOR ONE MORE YEAR. ALL RIGHT WELL THIS WE JUST TALKED ABOUT FARM BILL BUT WE HAVE SO MUCH TO COVER. ALSO TRADE IS CONSUMING FOLKS HERE IN WASHINGTON AND WE NEED TO TAKE A QUICK BREAK. BUT LATER ON US FARM REPORT WE'LL GET INTO THE TRADE DEBATE HERE IN WASHINGTON. 

JOHN’S WORLD
JOHN HAS COVERED TRADE QUITE A BIT OVER THE LAST  COUPLE MONTHS. BUT SINCE WE'RE TAKING A DEEP  DIVE INTO SOME OF THE POSSIBLE OUTCOMES, JOHN  TAKES A BREAK TO COVER SOMETHING A LITTLE  DIFFERNET ON THE SHOW.  JOHN. WELL JOHN HAS COVERED TRADE QUITE A BIT OVER THE LAST COUPLE MONTHS ON THE SHOW BUT SINCE WE'RE TAKING A DEEP DIVE INTO SOME OF THE POSSIBLE OUTCOMES JOHN TAKES A BREAK TO COVER SOMETHING A LITTLE DIFFERENT ON THE SHOW THIS WEEKEND. JOHN OVER THE YEARS YOU MAY HAVE NOTICED WHEN I WAS SHOOTING OUTSIDE IN JAN'S GARDEN OR ON OUR LAWNS SOMEWHERE IN A BUILDING THE SITE OUR POOL THE MORE THE POOL EQUIPMENT THERE'S A BATHROOM IN THERE AND YOU PROBABLY ALSO NOTICED IT WAS NOT IN PARTICULARLY GOOD CONDITION. AND MATTER OF FACT IT WAS LITERALLY FALLING DOWN. AND AS I TOOK IT APART IT WAS A PLANE TO ME THAT IT WAS A MIRACLE THAT HAD BEEN UP FOR THE LAST COUPLE THREE YEARS. WELL I COMPLETELY TORE DOWN WHICH FORCES YOU TO BUILD A NEW ONE. NOW HAVING LEARNED SOMETHING OVER THE YEARS ABOUT SUCH DO IT YOURSELF PROJECTS. I WENT ONLINE TO GET SOME PLANS BECAUSE ME INVENTING PLANS. I'M GOING TO OVERLOOK SOME STUFF THAT'S NOT WHAT I DO FOR A LIVING AND I'VE FOUND A BUNCH OF WEB SITES ONE OF WHICH WAS AMAZING AND IT SHOWN HERE JAMAICA COTTAGE SHOP OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT OUT IN NEW HAMPSHIRE OR VERMONT OR SOMETHING. AND IT'S ESSENTIALLY IKEA FOR SMALL BUILDINGS LIKE THIS. AND SO I THOUGHT THIS WOULD MAKE A GREAT FAMILY PROJECT WITH THE OTHER TWO ENJOY. WELL THREE ENGINEERS IN OUR FAMILY AND IT COULD BE LIKE THE GREENHOUSE. NOW SEVERAL YEARS AGO AND I THINK I TALKED ABOUT THIS. WE BUILT THIS GREENHOUSE FOR JAN AND IT WAS A LOT OF FUN. THE BOY OR MY SON ARE ALL HOME AND IT WAS A FAMILY PROJECT THAT TOOK TWO OR THREE DAYS AND IT ALL WENT SWIMMINGLY JUST SUPER WELL UNTIL WE GOT TO PUTTING UP THE VERY LAST TRANSLUCENCE SHEETS MAKE UP THE GREENHOUSE AND WE DISCOVERED ALL OF THEM HAD BEEN INSTALLED INSIDE OUT. THERE'S A RIGHT SIDE THE WRONG SIDE AND WE WERE ON THE WRONG 50 PERCENT. SO WE HAD TO TAKE THEM ALL DOWN AND PUT IT BACK BUT NOT BEFORE WE ARGUED VIGOROUSLY FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND SO OUR PLAN IS TO GO FROM THAT BARREN WORKS. I'D GO FROM THIS TO THIS EIGHTH SALT BOX THAT HAS BEEN PACKAGED UP IN THIS THING RIGHT HERE. IT'S A FLATPACK BUILDING. AND IT WAS DELIVERED THE OTHER DAY AND WE LIFTED OFF THE FORKLIFT AND SO ON MEMORIAL DAY. FIVE ENGINEERS WITH EIGHT DEGREES. OH AND POOR LEFT-RIGHT SKILLS. I I CANNOT. WHEN I WAS IN THE NAVY I HAD REAL PROBLEMS WITH PORT AND STARBOARD ARE GOING TO TRY TO MAKE THIS COME ABOUT. IT WILL BE OUR MEMORIAL DAY PROJECT. I'LL TRY TO TAKE SOME PICTURES OF HOW IT TURNS OUT AND LET YOU KNOW. BUT MY POINT OF VIEW IS THAT IF ALL OF US ARE THERE AND THE KIDS ARE RUNNING AROUND AND IN THE POOL SCREAMING AND CAUSING ALL KINDS OF PROBLEMS AND TOOLS GET LOST IT WILL BE A HUGE SUCCESS. THANKS JOHN. STILL TO COME THE SCENERY HAS THIS WEEK'S TRACTOR TALES. PLUS WE'LL TAKE A STEP INTO THE GATES OF THE WHITE HOUSE TO TALK ABOUT STRAIGHT. AND OUR. 

TEASE
THANKS, JOHN. STILL TO COME, MACHINERY PETE HAS THIS WEEK'S TRACTOR TALES. PLUS, WE'LL TAKE A STEP  INSIDE THE WHITE HOUSE TO TALK TRADE AND THE R-F-S.  

TRACTOR TALES
HEY FOLKS WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES. WE ARE IN OKLAHOMA TODAY HERE WITH DAVID SHEPARD AND DAVID YOU HAVE A KIND OF UNIQUE 1951 YOU R HERE I UNDERSTAND YOU BOUGHT THIS WHEN YOU WERE HOW OLD I WAS 16 AND A SOPHOMORE IN HIGH SCHOOL. AND THE REASON YOU BOUGHT IT WAS I WENT INTO THE HAY BUSINESS I BOUGHT JOHN DEERE HAY BIND SWATHER AND I'LL PULL IT WITH THIS TRACTOR. OK SO HOW MUCH DO YOU REMEMBER HOW MUCH YOU GAVE FOR THE 51 R THOUSAND DOLLARS. WHAT DID THAT FEEL LIKE IN 1967. A LOT OF MONEY. WHEN YOU'RE 60 WHEN YOU'RE 16. YEAH. AND I WOUND UP BY THE TIME I GOT OUT OF SCHOOL. HIGH SCHOOL HAD TWO R AND A THIRTY TEN LP AND A JOHN DEERE 224 BALER AND TWO JOHN DEERE SWATHERS. SO DAVID WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE 51 ARE HERE AND YOU REMEMBER BEING A YOUNG GUY 16 17 18 YEARS OLD MAKING MONEY HAYING WITH THIS THING WHAT. WHAT MEMORIES. YEAH WELL IT WAS A LOT OF HARD WORK. WE RUN AROUND THE CLOCK FOR ALOT OF HOURS. AND THEN I GOT MARRIED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL AND WENT TO COLLEGE AND MY BUSINESS PUT ME THROUGH COLLEGE AND THEN I RENTED MY FIRST FARM IN 1969 AND I FARM WITH THIS R FOR QUITE A FEW YEARS. AND DAVID YOU LIKE TO KEEP THEM IN THEIR WORK CLOTHES. THESE THESE TWO HERE I DO. THAT'S THE WAY I REMEMBER THEM. THANKS SO MUCH. DON’T GO ANYWHERE, BECAUSE WE NEED TO TAKE A QUICK BREAK, THEN WE’LL TAKE YOU INSIDE THE WHITE HOUSE TO TALK TO THE SPECIAL ASSISTANT TO THE PRESIDENT FOR AGRICUTURE AND AGRICUTURAL TRADE. WITH FEARS OVER POSSIBLE TRADE FALLOUT, THE WHITE THINKS THERE’S MUCH MORE TO GAIN THAN LOSE WHEN IT COMES TO TRADE. THAT’S NEXT 

FARM JOURNAL REPORT
WELCOME BACK. WELL THE PRESIDENT DIDN'T GROW UP ON A FARM HE HAS AN IN-HOUSE AG ADVISER WHO FOCUSES NOT ONLY ON AGRICULTURE BUT AGRICULTURAL TRADE. WE HAVE THE HONOR OF SITTING DOWN WITH MR. STARLING LATE THIS WEEK TO GET A FIRSTHAND LOOK AT THE WORK BEING DONE TO ENSURE PRESIDENT TRUMP HEARS THE CONCERNS FROM THOSE ON THE FRONTLINES OF AGRICULTURE TO START THIS OFF. IN THIS ROLE WHAT DOES IT MEAN. WHAT DO YOU DO ON A DAILY BASIS. WELL I THINK HUMOROUSLY I ASK MYSELF THAT SOMETIMES AT THE END OF THE DAY THE JOB OF THE SPECIAL ASSISTANT AT THE WHITE HOUSE IS TO COORDINATE POLICY THAT IS FRUITFUL AND BENEFICIAL FOR AGRICULTURE. THIS IS A POSITION THAT WAS ACTUALLY CREATED IN THE 1985 FARM BILL WHERE THE HILL WAS BEGINNING BACK IN THE 80S TO BE WORRIED ABOUT THE NUMBERS IN THE AG SECTOR THAT WE WERE A DIMINISHING PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION. WE WERE A DIMINISHING PERCENTAGE OF THE POLITICAL INFLUENCE A DIMINISHING NUMBER OF VOTES ON THE HILL THAT CAME FROM AG DISTRICTS AND THEY WERE LOOKING AHEAD AND SAID WE WANT TO MAKE SURE THERE IS SOMEBODY ON THE PRESIDENT'S TEAM AT THE WHITE HOUSE THAT FOCUSES ON AGRICULTURE. SO IN THAT BILL THEY WROTE A PROVISION THAT SAID THE PRESIDENT SHALL HAVE WITHIN THE EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT A SPECIAL ASSISTANT TO THE PRESIDENT FOR AGRICULTURE AND AGRICULTURAL TRADE. I'M FORTUNATE TO BE IN THAT ROLE. I GET A LOT OF FREE ADVICE FROM MY FAMILY WHICH ARE STILL FARMERS DOWN IN NORTH CAROLINA AND HOLD ME ACCOUNTABLE TO THE THINGS THAT WE'RE WORKING ON. SO IT'S A REAL HONOR TO SERVE THIS COMMUNITY TO DO THAT I THINK VERY HIGHLY OF. BUT WITH THAT SAID IT'S REALLY WORKING ON OUR PRIORITIES HERE FOR THE ADMINISTRATION. AND IF I CAN JUST LAY OUT WHAT THOSE ARE AT THE TOP OF THE LIST AND THE THING THAT I'M SURE YOU ARE GOING TO TALK ABOUT IS AGRICULTURAL TRADE. WE UNDERSTAND THAT WE PRODUCE MORE FOOD IN THIS COUNTRY THAN WE NEED. WE HAVE GOT TO FIND THE HOME FOR THAT ELSEWHERE. IT'S NOT COMPLICATED. NUMBER TWO WE'VE GOT TO ADDRESS SOME OF OUR CHALLENGES WITH REGARD TO ACCESS TO LABOR. MANY FARMERS TELL ME LOOK I'VE GOT THE CAPITAL I CAN BORROW MONEY TO EXPAND MY OPERATION. AND ACTUALLY I'VE GOT THE CUSTOMERS. I'VE GOT PLACES THAT I COULD SELL THIS PRODUCT BUT I'M WORRIED ABOUT GETTING IT OFF THE FARM. AND TO THAT CUSTOMER SO LABOR IS AN ISSUE. THIRD REGULATORY REFORM. I THINK THAT'S TYPICAL IN ANY CONSERVATIVE ADMINISTRATION THAT THEY WANT TO TAKE A LOOK AND MAKE SURE THAT REGULATIONS ARE RIGHT SIZED. THAT IS CERTAINLY AN ISSUE THAT AG CARES DEEPLY ABOUT ISSUES AS BIG AS WODE US THE EPA WERE ON THE WATERS OF THE UNITED STATES BUT ALSO LITTLE STUFF ABOUT. YOU'LL PROBABLY HEAR OUT IN THE FIELD. FOOD SAFETY MODERNIZATION ACT IMPLEMENTATION. HOW DO WE REGULATE BRINGING BIO TECH PRODUCTS TO MARKET. HOW DO WE REGULATE PESTICIDES AND CHEMICALS COMING TO MARKET. SO REG REFORM WHAT CAN WE DO THERE. AND LAST BUT NOT LEAST I'VE BEEN REALLY PROUD TO THE EXTENT THAT WE'VE HAD AN INFRASTRUCTURE CONVERSATION. WE'VE MADE SURE THAT AG AND RURAL AMERICA ARE PLUGGED INTO THAT AND IN FACT THE PRESIDENT'S PROPOSAL ON INFRASTRUCTURE HAD A 25 PERCENT SET ASIDE SPECIFICALLY FOR RURAL AMERICA. LOOKING AT CHINA WE LOOK AT WHAT A 178 PERCENT TARIFF CAN DO FOR SORGHUM EXPORTS I MEAN IT CUT OFF SORGHUM EXPORTS OUT OF THE COUNTRY. SO WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE FAIR TRADE PIECE OF IT IS THERE ROOM FOR GROWTH. DO YOU THINK WE COULD COME OUT BETTER IN KEY COMMODITIES LIKE SOYBEANS AND SORGHUM AND SO ON. THERE'S NO DOUBT A COUPLE OF THE TWO YOU MENTIONED SORGHUM. I THINK WHAT WE ACTUALLY SAW WITH REGARD TO SORGHUM THERE IS A GREAT EXHIBIT A FOR THE THING THAT THE PRESIDENT WANTS TO ADDRESS. WE SAW WHAT WE BELIEVE IS A VERY THINLY VEILED ATTEMPT TO SIMPLY BLOCK OUR PRODUCT OUT OF THE MARKET. WE DON'T THINK IT WAS TRULY A SINCERE INTERESTING CONVERSATION ABOUT IS THERE DUMPING GOING ON HERE AND THAT'S NOT FAIR. AND SO ON THE SOYBEAN FRONT I THINK IF WE LOOK AT THE NUMBERS OF SOYBEANS THAT CHINA IS IMPORTING THAT NUMBER CONTINUES TO GO UP THE U.S. PERCENTAGE OF THAT MARKET CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO BE IN DECLINE. THAT'S SOMETHING WE NEED TO REVERSE IF WE WANT TO. WE'RE STILL SELLING THEM MORE AND MORE SOYBEANS EVERY YEAR IN TERMS OF PURE NUMBER OF BUSHELS. BUT AS A PERCENTAGE OF THEIR MARKET WE'RE WE SHOULD BE NERVOUS THAT WE ARE NOT GROWING ALONG WITH THEIR MARKET. SO WE'RE LOSING MARKET SHARE. THAT'S WHAT THE NUMBERS SEEM TO BEAR OUT. YES. SO THEN WHEN AGRICULTURE YOU KNOW WE'VE HEARD THIS DO NO HARM WHEN IT COMES TO NAFTA WHEN IT COMES TO CHINA REALLY LET'S JUST KEEP EXPORTS WHERE THEY'RE AT. ARE WE SETTING THE BAR TOO LOW. DO YOU THINK AGRICULTURE SHOULD BE ACTUALLY AIMING TO GROW EXPORTS TO SOME OF THESE. OH THERE'S NO DOUBT. I THINK THE DO NO HARM MANTRA IS REALLY A SAFE PLACE FOR FOLKS TO FEEL LIKE THEY ARE. LOOK IF WE CAN KEEP WHAT WE HAD WE ARE HAPPY. BUT I THINK IF WE THINK LONG TERM ABOUT THE AG ECONOMY AND WHERE WE NEED TO GO IN THE FACT THAT OUR PRODUCTION IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE OUR TECHNOLOGIES ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO GET BETTER. OUR FARMERS ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO BE SMARTER AND BE BETTER AT MANAGING THE ALL THE INPUTS AND THE ELEMENTS THAT THEY HAVE TO PUT UP WITH. IF THAT'S THE CASE WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO SELL MORE. NOT JUST DO NO HARM. TO WRAP THINGS UP WE KNOW THERE'S ANXIETY RIGHT NOW IN FARM COUNTRY WITH TRADE IN AND ARE FAST EVERYTHING IS GOING ON. YET WE'VE SEEN PROGRESS WITH INFRASTRUCTURE BEING A TAX CUT. SOME OF THOSE THAT WE HEAR FROM FARMERS AND RANCHERS THAT THEY'RE EXTREMELY HAPPY ABOUT THANKFUL FOR. IF REKI REGULATIONS ALL OF THAT. BUT WHAT DO YOU WANT FARMERS AND RANCHERS TO KNOW RIGHT NOW WHAT ARE CONSISTENTLY HERE AG GROUPS SAY TIME AND TIME AGAIN WHETHER IT'S AT THE LOCAL LEVEL THE STATE LEVEL OR HERE AT THE NATIONAL AND FEDERAL LEVEL IS WE WANT A SEAT AT THE TABLE. WE WANT AN OPPORTUNITY TO BE A PART OF THE CONVERSATION. WE WANT TO MAKE SURE THAT OUR NEEDS ARE BEING HEARD AT THE END OF THE DAY WE WILL ALWAYS GET OUR POSITION ON EVERYTHING BUT WE WANT TO KNOW THAT WE'VE HAD A FAIR SHAKE. HERE'S WHAT I WOULD SAY TO THOSE FOLKS IN THE AG WORLD. FOLKS LIKE MY MOM AND DAD FARMING ON A FARM MAKING ENDS MEET. STILL BEING SUCCESSFUL AND THAT IS YOU'VE GOT THE SEAT AT THE TABLE. YOU'VE GOT IT A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT WAYS. NUMBER ONE THE PRESIDENT HAS SURROUNDED HIMSELF WITH PERSONNEL THAT VALUE THIS SECTOR AND UNDERSTAND HOW IMPORTANT IT IS JUST PURELY TO THE BACKBONE THE SOCIAL FABRIC AND THE ECONOMY OF THE COUNTRY. THE SECOND THING OUR FOLKS NEED TO HEAR IS WE HAVE A POLITICALLY POWERFUL VOICE IN THIS ADMINISTRATION. OF THE 30 STATES THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP WON IN THE FALL OF 2016 AND 26 OF THEM AGRICULTURE AND AGRIBUSINESS ARE THE NUMBER ONE NUMBER TWO OR NUMBER THREE INDUSTRY. THE PRESIDENT KNOWS THAT FARMERS SUPPORTED HIM IN HIS ELECTION. AND THE PRESIDENT I BELIEVE IS A PRETTY ADEPT POLITICIAN WHETHER HE WANTS TO ADMIT IT OR NOT. AND SO HE HAS THAT IN THE BACK OF HIS MIND AND JUST I DON'T THINK THERE'S BEEN AN ERA AT LEAST SINCE I'VE BEEN ALIVE WHERE WE'VE HAD THAT KIND OF CLOUT. AND I WOULD HAVE NEVER GUESSED WE WOULD HAVE THAT KIND OF CLOUT IN 2018. BUT I RESPECTFULLY SUBMIT THAT WE DO. THANK YOU. THANK YOU. APPRECIATE TH E OPPORTUNITY. STILL TO COME WITH AN APP TO 2.0 POSSIBLY NEARING THE FINISH LINE WHAT HAPPENS IF A DAIRY DEAL DOES NOT MAKE IT INTO NAFTA. WE ASKED TWO WASHINGTON INSIDERS AFTER THE BREAK. STILL TO COME, WITH NAFTA 2 POINT 0 NEARING THE FINISH LINE, WHAT HAPPENS IF DAIRY DOESN’T MAKE IT INTO NAFTA 2.0. WE ASK TWO WASHINGTON INSIDERS AFTER THE BREAK. 

ROUNDTABLE 2
WELCOME BACK. WE TALKED A LOT ABOUT THE FARM BILL AND OUR PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. NOW WE'RE GOING TO FOCUS ON TRADE FOR OUR ROUNDTABLE THIS WEEKEND. SO MUCH ON TRADE THIS WEEK WE SAW THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION HEAD TO CHINA. WE'LL GET INTO THAT IN A MINUTE. LET'S FIRST TALK ABOUT NAFTA. WE KEEP HEARING MIXED MESSAGES THAT WE MAY BE CLOSE TO FINALLY FINISHING NAFTA 2.0 DEAL. WHAT ARE YOU HEARING RANDY. HOW CLOSE ARE REALLY GETTING AN APP TO 2.0 DEAL DONE. I THINK WE'RE PRETTY CLOSE. I THINK WE'RE WITHIN POTENTIALLY A MONTH OF GETTING AN OUTLINE OF AN AGREEMENT. I THINK ONCE AMBASSADOR LEITHAUSER GETS BACK FROM CHINA FROM THIS CHINA TRIP I THINK THEY'RE GOING TO THE MINISTER ROOM MEETING WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE THREE TRADE MINISTERS. AND YOU KNOW I'M CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC THAT THOUGH THEY'LL GET THE OUTLINE OF AN AGREEMENT THIS MONTH. WHAT WE KNEW WAS A KEY TIME. WE KNOW THAT THE ELECTIONS IN MEXICO ARE TAKING ARE GETTING READY TO REALLY RAMP UP AND WE NEEDED TO GET A DEAL OUTLINED AT LEAST BY MAY. SO ARE WE FOLLOWING THAT TIMELINE. WELL YOU DO NEED PRESSURE NOT ONLY IN OUR IN OUR CONGRESS BUT DEFINITELY IN THE TRADE NEGOTIATIONS ARENA. AND I AGREE WITH RANDY. ONCE LEITHAUSER RETURNS WHETHER IT'S A YOU KNOW THE WEEK OF MAY THE 7TH OR NOT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON PROBABLY THE FIVE YARD LINE AND A FOOTBALL ANALOGY AND THOSE ARE THE HARDEST ONES BUT THOSE MINISTERS WILL HAVE TO MAKE THE FINAL DECISIONS. AGAIN I AGREE WITH THAT 30 DAY TIMELINE. I THINK WE'RE THERE AND I THINK THAT THEY'LL CROSS THAT LINE. SO YOU THINK ENOUGH PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE ON SOME OF THESE KEY ISSUES THAT WE'RE ALMOST CROSSING THAT FINISH. YES. YES I DO. RANDY THOUGH DAIRY IS A BIG STICKING POINT AND THAT'S ONE WITH THE CLASS 7 MILK PRICING STRUCTURE IN CANADA. THE DAIRY INDUSTRY HAS BEEN VERY VOCAL THAT WE NEED TO SEE THIS ISSUE RESOLVED YET WE HAVEN'T SEEN IT RESOLVED WITHIN OUR NAFTA TALKS YET IF WE DO NOT SEE THIS RESOLVED. WHAT'S PLAN B. WHAT HAPPENS. I THINK IT'S IMPORTANT TO POINT OUT YOU KNOW I WAS LOOKING AT SOME STATISTICS AND CHEESE PRODUCTION LAST YEAR WAS UP ABOUT 6 OR 7 PERCENT IN CANADA. AND YET IMPORTS OF MILK PROTEIN CONCENTRATE FROM THE UNITED STATES WERE DOWN 38 PERCENT. SO IT'S CLEAR THIS CLASS 7 PRICING ISSUE HAS HAD AN IMPACT ON THE U.S. DAIRY INDUSTRY AND TO THE CREDIT THE ADMINISTRATION. I THINK THAT THEY REALIZE THIS. SECRETARY PERDUE THE PRESIDENT HAS BEEN TO WISCONSIN. HE'S TALKED ABOUT THIS PARTICULAR ISSUE. AND I KNOW AMBASSADOR DOUD IS VERY FOCUSED ON IT SO I DON'T WANT TO PREJUDGE WHETHER WE'RE GOING TO GET CLASS 7 BUT I WILL SAY THIS IT'S HAD AN IMPACT A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THE U.S. DAIRY INDUSTRY AND NOW IS THE TIME IF WE'RE GOING TO ADDRESS IT TO ADDRESS IT AS PART OF NAFTA IF IT'S NOT PART OF NAFTA, I'M NOT OPTIMISTIC WE'RE GOING TO GET CHANGES ANYTIME SOON. SWITCHING GEARS TO CHINA. WHEN WE LOOK AT THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION HEADING OVER THIS WEEK REALLY WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN IN ORDER TO PREVENT A TRADE WAR. WHAT DO WE NEED TO SAY SEE TAKE PLACE IN WHICH BOTH ADMINISTRATIONS IN ORDER TO PREVENT THAT. WELL THESE ARE HEADY ISSUES AND IT'S JUST NOT WANTED IT'S SUB ROLL. BUT YOU'VE GOT A POPERY OF A TRUMP ADMINISTRATION OFFICIALS GOING OVER THAT THAT TELLS YOU IN ITSELF THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THAT IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER TRIP BACK OVER TO THE UNITED STATES TO SETTLE ALL OF THESE UNDERLYING ISSUES. BUT BOTH COUNTRIES NEED TO TRADE WITH EACH OTHER. SO I THINK TRUMP IS RIGHT. CHINA NEEDS AS MUCH IF NOT MORE THAN WE NEED THEM BEFORE THEIR OVERALL MULTI DECADE YOU KNOW GROWTH STRATEGY AS THEY BRING THE PEASANTS FROM THE RURAL SECTOR YOU KNOW BACK INTO THE CITIES THEY HAVE TO SELL. SO THESE ARE THORNY ISSUES RELATIVE TO THE AUTO INDUSTRY INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY ETC. BUT YOU KNOW BOTH SIDES KNOW THAT THERE WILL BE SERIOUS IMPLICATIONS THAT WE DO NOT COME TO SOME SOME SORT OF AN AGREEMENT EARLIER THIS WEEK THOUGH THE PRESIDENT SAYING HE'S GOING TO POSTPONE THOSE STEEL AND ALUMINIUM TARIFFS. IS THAT A SIGN OF HOPE THAT MAYBE WE WILL SEE A DEAL GET DONE OR IS THAT A SIGN THAT WE'RE JUST KICKING THE CAN DOWN THE ROAD. NO I THINK IT'S I THINK IT'S AN ADMISSION ON THEIR PART THAT THERE SOME LEVERAGE HERE AND THAT THEY'RE GOING TO GIVE IT AN OPPORTUNITY TO SEE HOW THESE NEGOTIATIONS GO. LOOK I THINK EVERY AMERICAN UNDERSTANDS WE'RE RUNNING A 375 BILLION DOLLAR TRADE DEFICIT WITH CHINA. I THINK MOST AMERICANS FULLY UNDERSTAND THAT THEY'VE BEEN STEALING OUR TECHNOLOGY FOR A LONG TIME AND THEY'RE USING IT AGAINST US ECONOMICALLY AND THEY'RE USING IT AGAINST US MILITARILY. SO I THINK MOST AMERICANS REALIZE WE NEED TO DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT AND THIS PRESIDENT IS TRYING TO DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT. THE QUESTION REALLY COMES: WHAT INSTRUMENT DO YOU USE TO ADDRESS IT. FROM AG'S PERSPECTIVE WITH OUR 22 BILLION DOLLAR AG EXPORTS TO CHINA, WE ARE AT THE TIP OF THE SPEAR ON ANY RETALIATION. SO I THINK THAT'S THE REAL CHALLENGE WE HAVE. ARE THERE ARE TOO MANY DISTRACTIONS RIGHT NOW. AND WHEN IT COMES TO NACTA WHEN IT COMES TO CHINA YOU KNOW IN AGRICULTURE BEEN A BIG PROPONENT OF LET'S SEE SOME BILATERAL TRADE DEALS TAKE PLACE BUT IT SEEMS LIKE NONE OF THAT CAN HAPPEN WHILE WE'RE STILL FOCUSED ON OUR NAFTA IN CHINA. WELL THEN YOU HAVE THE LINKAGE OF THE NORTH KOREA SUMMIT AS WELL. YES THERE ARE A LOT OF DISTRACTIONS BUT ALL IMPORTANT AND PROBABLY ALL INTERLINKED. ALL RIGHT WELL THANK YOU BOTH FOR JOINING US. WE APPRECIATE IT. WELL MUCH MORE OF OUR MARKETING DISCUSSION OR FOREIGN POLICY DISCUSSION. MARKETS NOW AN AG WEB SITE. CHECK THAT OUT. STAY TUNED BECAUSE WE HAVE MUCH MORE ON U.S. FARM REPORT FROM WASHINGTON WHEN WE COME BACK. 

AMERICAN COUNTRYSIDE
IN JUST A FEW WEEKS, PATRIOTISM WILL BE ON FULL DISPLAY HERE IN WASHINGTON D.C.FOR MEMORIAL DAY. A MIX OF RED WHITE AND BLUE WILL NOT ONLY LINE THE STREETS, BUT THE SYMBOL OF FREEDOM WILL ALSO LINE THE ARLINGTON NATIONAL CEMETARY. HONORING AND REMEMBERING HTE MEN AND WOMEN WHO DIED WHILE SERVING THIS COUNTRY. WHILE AN ICONIC CEMETARY OUT WEST ISN’T MILITARY BASED, THERE ARE THOSE WHO SERVED BURIED THERE. AS AMERICAN COUNTRYSIDE’S ANDREW MCCREA SHOWS US, THE BOOTHILL GRAVEYARD IN TOMBSTONE ARIZONA DRAWS A CROWD YEAR-ROUND.. KEEPING STORIES AND LEGACY OF THE WEST… ALIVE. THE YEAR WAS 1877 AND ED SCHIEFFELIN WAS PROSPECTING FOR GOLD IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA, USING FORT HUACHUCA AS HIS BASE OF EXPLORATION.  THOSE STATIONED AT THE FORT BELIEVED THEY KNEW WHAT WOULD BE SCHIEFFELIN’S OUTCOME.(THE SOLDIERS DOWN THEE, THEY WOULD TELL HIM THE ONLY THING YOU’RE GONG TO FIND OUT THERE IS YOUR TOMBSTONE AND OF COURSE THERE WERE APACHE INDIANS OUT HERE AND THEY FIGURED HE WAS GOING TO GET IT FROM THE INDIANS BUT SHEFLIN FOUND SILVER INSTEAD OF GOLD AND NAMED THE TOWN TO MOCK THE FORT’S SOLDIERS, CREATING THE CITY OF TOMBSTONE.  IT WAS A BOOMING AND OFTEN WILD PLACE TO LIVE.  THE BOOTHILL GRAVEYARD WAS SOON ESTABLISHED.(IF YOU’RE HAVING A PARTY AND YOU’RE GAMBLING AND YOUR DRINKING, YOU KNOW THINGS GET A LITTLE OUT OF HAND.  SO WITHIN SIX YEARS WE FILLED UP THIS CEMETERY :THIS IS THE FIRST BURYING GROUND FOR THE RESIDENTS OF THE TOWN OF TOMBSTONE.  SEVERAL ITEMS MAKE THIS CEMETERY DIFFERENT FROM MOST OTHERS IN THE NATION.(THIS IS CALLED CALICHE SOIL HERE, IT’S VERY DENSE AND IT’S VERY HARD. AND THEY BURIED THEM ONLY THREE FEET DEEP HERE, NOT THE TYPICAL SIX FEET DEEP ADD TO THAT FACT THERE ARE FEW TREES HERE FOR WOOD FOR CASKETS, SO THE DEAD WERE BURIED IN CANVAS OR BLANKETS. STONES WERE PLACED ON TOP TO PREVENT ANIMALS FROM DIGGING THE SHALLOW GRAVES.  YOU’LL FIND NAMES YOU MAY KNOW.  SOME OF THE MOST INFAMOUS WERE FROM A SHOWDOWN HERE IN 1881.(WELL WE HAVE BILLY MCCLANTON AND THE MCLAURY’S, THEY ARE OFF IN THIS AREA OVER THERE.  THEY ARE BURIED TOGETHER.  THEY ARE FROM THE O.K. CORRAL GUNFIGHTEACH PERSON BURIED HERE HAS A STORY WHICH IS TOLD ON A PAMPHLET YOU RECEIVE WHEN VISITING THE CEMETERY. SOME OF THE STORIES CERTAINLY SHOW HOW ROUGH AND TUMBLE LIFE COULD BE IN THE WILD WEST.(MR. GEO JOHNSON, HE BOUGHT A HORSE.  IT WAS A STOLEN HORSE.  HE DIDN’T STEAL IT, BUT IT WAS STOLEN AND HE GOT HUNG BY MISTAKE. THAT’S A BIG OOPS. BUT YOU KNOW THAT’S HOW IT WAS IN THE OLD WILD WEST MOST OF THE BURIALS WERE IN THE 1880S.  TIME PASSED AND THIS GRAVEYARD WAS FORGOTTEN…BUT NOT BY ALL.(A MISTER NUNNALY CAME ALONG AND HE WENT TO THE CITY FATHERS AND HE SAID YOU KNOW THAT’S PRETTY DISRESPECTFUL AND IT’S A MESS AND I’D LIKE TO FIX IT UP AND CITY SAID OK FINE.  HE SAYS YES BUT I’D LIKE TO BE BURIED THERE. THE CITY AGREED AND MR. NUNNALLY IS THE LAST PERSON TO BE BURIED HERE AND IT IS TO HIM AND THOSE HE RECRUITED TO HELP CLEAN THE SITE THAT ALL OWE CREDIT FOR BEING ABLE TO VISIT THOSE GRAVES TODAY.  THANK YOU, ANDREW. AND YOU CAN HEAR MORE FROM ANDREW’S TRAVELS BY VISITING AMERICAN COUNTRYSIDE DOT COM. WHEN WE COME BACK, AN EMAIL FROM A VIEWER REALLY STRUCK A CHORD WITH JOHN, THAT’S NEXT

CUSTOMER SUPPORT
AS COMMENTATOR, JOHN OFTEN HAS A VERY STRONG OPINION. AND THAT OPINION HE VOCALIZES ON THE  SHOW. BUT THAT DOESN'T MEAN VIEWERS WORDS OR  OPINIONS, CAN'T CHANGE HIS MIND. HERE'S JOHN  PHIPPS. LAST WEEK I TALKED ABOUT THIS CHART, AND WHY THE TIME IT TAKES TO PLANT CORN SEEMS TO STAY VIRTUALLY CONSTANT DESPITE NEWER, FASTER MACHINERY. I SUGGESTED THAT THE LACK OF LAND CONSOLIDATION ROBBED THE PRODUCTIVITY OF BIGGER EQUIPMENT. THE AG ECONOMISTS WHO CREATED THIS CHART THOUGHT FARMERS WERE SIZING THEIR EQUIPMENT TO PLANT IN 2 WEEKS. SOME LIKE JOE LANE POINTED OUT ANOTHER FACTOR: “MAYBE WHERE 100 FARMERS PLANTED 10,000 ACRES, NOW 40 FARMERS PLANT THE SAME LAND.” I’M NOT SURE HOW THE NUMBER OF PLANTERS AFFECTS THIS PHENOMENON, BUT I DID COME UP WITH WHAT I THINK COULD BE THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR. IT’S NOT ABOUT SIZE AT ALL, IT’S ABOUT CLIMATE.THIS IS A MAP OF SOIL TEMPERATURES IN ILLINOIS ON APRIL 11 THIS YEAR. IT COMES FROM JIM ANGEL AND THE STATE WATER SURVEY, WHOM IS GREAT PERSON TO FOLLOW ON TWITTER. ANYWAY, ILLINOIS IS ALMOST 400 MILES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, AND AT THIS POINT IN THE SPRING THERE WAS ALMOST AN 8 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN SOIL TEMPS ACROSS THE STATE. IT IS COMMON KNOWLEDGE THAT PLANTING STARTS IN THE SOUTH AND PROCEEDS NORTH AS SOIL CONDITIONS PERMIT. SO LET’S DO AN EXPERIMENT. DIVIDE THE STATE ROUGHLY EVERY 100 MILES AND PRETEND THEY ALL HAVE EQUAL CORN ACRES – WORK WITH ME ON THIS. ASSUME THE START DELAY IS TWO DAYS FROM THE ADJACENT SOUTHERN SECTION, WHICH STRIKES ME AS REASONABLE. NOW ASSUME FARMERS CAN ACTUALLY PLANT THEIR CROP IN 5 DAYS – 20% PER DAY. EVEN AT THAT BREAKNECK SPEED, IT TAKES NINE DAYS TO GO FROM 5% OF THE IL CROP PLANTED TO 95%, WHICH IS HOW PLANTING TIME IS CALCULATED. YOU CAN FOOL AROUND ON A SPREADSHEET WITH STARTING INTERVALS AND SPEED, BUT MY CONCLUSION IS KNOWING HOW LONG IT TAKES TO PLANT THE WHOLE IL CROP DOESN’T TELL MUCH ABOUT HOW FAST INDIVIDUAL FARMERS ARE PUTTING SEED IN THE GROUND. MAYBE LOOKING AT NASS DISTRICT DATA WOULD SHED SOME LIGHT, BUT I THINK FARMERS COULD BE PLANTING FASTER, BUT THE BIG FACTOR IS NOT ALL SUITABLE WORKING DAYS ARE SUITABLE FOR THE ALL THE FARMERS IN THE STATE. AS YOU CAN TELL I’VE HAD A FEW BORING HOURS ON THE TRACTOR THIS WEEK. 

TEASE
THANKS, JOHN. IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS FOR JOHN, JUST EMAIL HIM AT U-S FARM REPORT DOT COM. WHEN WE COME BACK. IT MAY HAVE FELT LIKE SUMMER, BUT WE HAVE SIGNS OF SPRING TO SHARE. THAT’S NEXT.

FROM THE FARM
WELL THE WRAP UP WASHINGTON D.C. SPECIAL. IT'S NOT D.C. IN THE SPRING. IF YOU DON'T SEE THE BEAUTIFUL CHERRY BLOSSOMS IN FULL BLOOM AND JUST LIKE THIS SPRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY THE BLOOMS WERE A LITTLE DELAYED THIS YEAR DUE TO THE PROLONGED WINTER. IT'S A SIGHT TO SEE THE BLOOMS LINING THE TIDAL BASIN. EACH YEAR THE CHERRY BLOSSOM FESTIVAL DRAWS MORE THAN A MILLION PEOPLE WHO COME TO SOAK UP THE BEAUTY IN PERSON. CONGRATULATIONS TO OUR FACEBOOK COVER PHOTO WINNER ANTHONY HE'S FROM NEWCASTLE PENNSYLVANIA. HE SNAPPED THIS PICTURE AT BELLO'S AT RIVERSIDE GARDENS IN YOUNGSTOWN OHIO WEST APRIL. THANK YOU ANTHONY FOR THAT GORGEOUS PHOTO AND CONGRATULATIONS. 

CLOSE
WELL THAT DOES IT FOR OUR SPECIAL HERE FROM WASHINGTON D.C.. THANK YOU FOR WATCHING. BE SURE TO JOIN US NEXT WEEK AS WE WORK TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND EVERYONE. 

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