USFR Weekly Recap - November 11-12, 2017

November 11, 2017 03:30 AM
 
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TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
NOVEMBER 11-12, 2017


HEADLINES
WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M TYNE MORGAN.  IT'S A PACKED SHOW THIS VETERANS DAY WEEKEND.  HERE'S WHAT'S AHEAD. USDA THROWING A CURVEBALL AT TRADERS,  PROJECTING A NEW HIGH FOR THE U-S CORN YIELD  THIS YEAR. <QUITE HONESTLY, THAT PUT PRESSURE ON TEH  MARKET AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUT PRESSURE ONT  EH MARKET> AS THE TRUMP ADMINSTRATION TIGHTENS ITS STANCE  ON NIXING NAFTA, DAIRY LEADERS SAY FAILING TO  NEGOTIATE A NEW DEAL IS NOT AN OPTION.   WELL I DON'T THINK THAT'S A RESULT THAT U.S. AGRICULTURE IS  GOING TO ACCEPT  FROM BOOSTING TRADE TO FINDING A SAFETY NET  THAT WORKS, WE COVER THE LANDSCAPE OF DAIRY IN  OUR FARM JOURNAL REPORT.  AND IN JOHN'S WORLD... <A VETERANS DAY MESSAGE.><U.S. FARM REPORT - BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE DEPENDABLE, LONG  LASTING, CHEVY SILVERADO.>

USDA CROP PRODUCTION, WASDE
NOW FOR THE MARKET RELATED NEWS, BIG CROPS NOT  ONLY GET BIGGER, BUT USDA THINKS CORN YIELDS  EXPLODED THIS YEAR NOW PROJECTING THAT  FARMERS HAVE A NEW RECORD CORN YIELD  ON THEIR  HANDS. USDA DOING WHAT NOONE IN THE TRADE EXPECTED..  RAISING HTE NATIONAL CORN YIELD A WHOPPING 3  POINT 6 BUSHELS FROM OCTOBER. THAT PUTS THE NEW  YIELD AT 175 POINT 4.   THAT'S 8 TENTHS HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR'S RECORD  YIELD OF 174 POINT 6. AND THE LARGEST INCREASE  FROM MONTH TO MONTH SINCE 1994.  THE AGENCY RAISING PRODUCTION BY 2 PERCENT TO  14 POINT 6 BILLIOIN BUSHELS. THAT'S 4 PERCENT  LOWER THAN LAST YEAR'S 15 POINT 1 BILLION BUSHEL  CROP.  USDA DIDN'T TOUCH THE U-S SOYBEAN YIELD-- LEAVING  IT AT 49 POINT 5 BUSHELS PER ACRE. THAT'S DOWN  FROM LAST YEAR, BUT BASED ON MORE ACRES, USDA  DOES EXPECT OVERALL PRODUCTION TO BE HIGHER  THAN LAST YEAR. SOYEBAN PRODUCTION FORECAST AT  4 POINT 43 BILLION BUSHELS  I THINK IF THERE IS A SAVING GRACE IN THE CORN MARKET IT'S THAT WE'VE  KIND OF BEEN SPINNING OUR WHEELS IN HERE BECAUSE FUNDS ARE SO  HEAVILY LOADED UP ON THE SHORT SIDE OF THE MARKET THAT MAY  PREVENT A SHARP DOWNSIDE MOVE IN THE CORN MARKET. BUT IT SURE  DOESN'T ENCOURAGE ANY KIND OF STRONG UPSIDE MOVE IN CORN  FUTURES ANY TIME SOON. NOW ON THE SOYBEAN SIDE OF THINGS WE  WERE ANTICIPATING A LOWER CROP ESTIMATE WHICH WE GOT AND A  LOWER CARRYOVER ESTIMATE WHICH WE GOT BUT NEITHER OF THEM  DROPPED AS MUCH AS ANTICIPATED AND THE NEGATIVE REACTION IN THE  CORN MARKET SPILLED OVER TO SOYBEANS. WITH A MUCH HIGHER CORN PRODUCTION ESTIMATE,  USDA ALSO BOOSTED  DOMESTIC CORN ENDING  STOCKS FOR 2017-18. IT COMES IN AT JUST UNDER TWO  AND A HALF BILLION BUSHELS. HERE'S PURDUE  UNIVERSITY'S CHHRIS HURT.  <AND A CERTAINLY A NUMBER OF THAT MAGNITUDE CERATINLY STARTS TO  LIMIT UPSIDE POTENTIAL SIMPLY BC WE HAVE SO MUCH OLD CROP  STOCKS, SO MUCH INVENTORY THAT WE'RE GOING TO CARRY INTO THE 2018  CROP AT THE END OF HTE SUMMER IN 2018. > U.S. SOYBEAN ENDING STOCKS FOR THIS MARKETING  YEAR WAS TRIMMED A BIT, NOW SITTING AT 425 MILLION  BUSHELS. DESPITE THE DAMAGE FROM HURRICANES HARVEY AND  IRMA, USDA IS STILL BULLISH ON THIS YEAR'S COTOTN  CROP. THE AGENCY FORECASTING A 21 PINT 4 MILLION BALE  CROP. THAT'S UP A PERCENT FROM OCOTBER, BUT 25  PERCENT ABOVE LAST YEAR.  WITH A YIELD OF 900 POUNDS PER ACRE, THAT'S THE  HIGHEST YIELD ON RECORD.  AND AS IRMA TOOK A BIG BITE OUT OF FLORIDA'S ORANGE CROP, USDA DID ADJUST THIS YEAR'S ALL  ORANGE FORECAST, TRIMMING THAT NUMBER BY 4  PERCENT. USDA PEGGING THE CROP AT 4 POINT 16  MILLION TONS. THAT'S A 19 PERCENT DROP FROM LAST  YEAR.  THE AGENCY DIDN'T TOUCH TEXAS OR CALIFONRIA' S  PRODUCTION NUMBERS. INSTEAD, REDUCED FLORIDA'S NAVEL ORANGE CROP BY  9 PERCENT. WHICH IS 36 PERCENT OFF LAST YEAR. 

CHINA TRADE DEALS
THE PRESIDENT GETTING READY TO WRAP UP A  WHIRLWIND TRIP THROUGH ASIA. AND WHILE VISITING  CHINA, HE TOOK A SOFTER APPROACH TO TRADE WITH  CHINA, AND EVEN TOOK TO TWITTER SAYING THE U-S IS  TO BLAME FOR THE TRADE DEFICIT. HE SAID PAST  ADMINSTRATIONS ALLOWED FOR CHINA TO TAKE  ADVANTAGE OF THE U-S.   THE ICING ON THE TRIP WAS THE ADMINSTRATION  ANNOUCING UPWARDS OF 250 BILLION DOLLARS IN  BUSINESS DEALS IN CHINA THIS WEEK. SOME OF THAT IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO U-S  AGRICULTURE. . THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT AGREED TO INCREASE  SOYBEAN PURCHASES FROM THE U.S. IT WILL SIGN A  DEAL WITH THE U-S SOYBEAN EXPORT COUNCIL. . CHINA IS ALSO PROMISING TO BUY MORE U-S PROTEIN.   . J-D-DOT-COM - WHICH IS CHINA'S SECOND LARGEST  ONLINE RETAILER - PLEDGED TO PURCHASE ONE-AND A  HALF BILLION DOLLARS IN BEEF AND PORK OVER THE  NEXT THREE YEARS. . THE PORK WOULD COME FROM SMITHFIELDS FOODS,  WHICH IS OWNED BY A CHINESE CONGLOMERATE. < "TODAY'S SIGNINGS ARE GOOD EXAMPLES OF HOW WE CAN  PRODUCTIVELY BUILD UP OUR BILATERAL TRADE."> WHILE CHINA PLEDGES TO BUY MORE U-S PORK AND BEEF, SOUTH KOREA  IS AGGRESSIVELY BUYING. . IN ITS MONTHLY TALLY OF PROTEIN SHIPMENTS, THE U- S MEAT EXPORT FEDERATION SAYS PORK EXPORTS TO  SOUTH KOREA SURGED 33 PERCENT IN VOLUME IN  SEPTEMBER. 

WEATHER
THOSE ARE THE HEADLINES...METEOROLOGIST MIKE  HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH WEATHER.. MIKE A  PRETTY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK, WITH  MORE AREAS SEEING SNOW. WHAT'S ON TAP FOR NEXT  WEEK? THAT'S RIGHT TIME AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK AND  THAT PROBABLY CONTINUES NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS WE HEAD TOWARD  THANKSGIVING. CHECKING THE DROUGHT MONITOR WAS GETTING DRIER  WE'RE SEEING SOME SEVERE DROUGHT SHOWING UP PARTS OF  ARKANSAS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND A FEW SURROUNDING AREAS GOING  BACK ONE MONTH. YOU CAN SEE THAT IT WAS STARTING TO TURN DRY.  THERE IS ALSO STARTING TO TURN DRY FARTHER NORTH BUT THAT GOT BETTER.  IT STARTED TO TURN DRY IN NEW ENGLAND AS WELL UNTIL THAT ONE BIG  STORM CAME IN AND WIPED OUT ANY CHANCE OF DROUGHT. BASICALLY SOUTH DAKOTA NORTH DAKOTA INTO MONTANA'S STAYED RELATIVELY THE  SAME OVER THE PAST MONTH OR SO. WE JUST CAN'T GET RID OF THE LAST  PART OF THAT SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT UP THERE. LET'S GO DAY BY  DAY THIS WEEK LIKE TIME SAID AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN STATIONARY  FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT WILL COMBINE WITH THIS BIG SYSTEM  OUT WEST FOR A SYSTEM COMING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY  BY WEDNESDAY. WE'LL SHOW YOU THAT IN A SECOND. OTHERWISE IT'S  JUST COLD IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THAT'S A PRETTY  POTENT POTENT STORM OUT WEST WITH LOTS OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND  OBVIOUSLY VALLEY RAINS BY WEDNESDAY THEN THAT STRONG STORM  GOING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH  THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SOME SHOWERS. THIS ONE WON'T  BE THE BIG ONE FOR THE WEEK THE NEXT ONE WELL THAT'S GOING TO BE  PRODUCING A LOT OF RAIN OR SNOW AS IT GOES FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO  THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY. AND THIS IS VERY COLD AIR BEHIND IT  EVEN COLDER THAN WHAT WE'VE ALREADY SEEN THIS YEAR.   SO THAT WILL BE PRODUCING SOME DECENT SNOWS THROUGH THE  UPPER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER 48. WE'LL TALK MORE ABOUT THE LONGER  RANGE FORECAST IN OUR NEXT HALF HOUR.  THANKS, MIKE.

TEASE
UP NEXT, WE'RE OFF TO LAS VEGAS FOR  FARM JOURNAL'S MILK BUSINESS CONFERENCE. AN  OVERSUPPLY IS CREATING PRESSURED PRICES. BUT COULD THAT CHANGE? MIKE NORTH, BRYAN DOHERTY  AND SCOTT BROWN JOIN ME ENXT. 

ROUNDTABLE 1
WELCOME BACK TO U.S. FARM REPORT THIS WEEKEND. WELL IT'S A REAL TREAT TO BE HERE IN LAS VEGAS FROM FARM JOURNALS MILK BUSINESS CONFERENCE AND SO WHAT BETTER TOPIC THAN TO TALK ABOUT DAIRY PRICES AND WHERE WE'RE HEADING. WE HAD A GREAT PANEL LINED UP TO DO JUST THAT. MIKE NORTH LET'S START WITH YOU. IT'S NO SECRET THAT WE HAVE AN OVERSUPPLY SITUATION WHEN IT COMES TO DAIRY PRICES. DO YOU SEE THAT SITUATION BUDGING AS WE HEAD INTO 2018. REALLY THE ANSWER IS IN SHORT NO. THE ONLY WAY TO REALLY BRING THIS INVENTORY BACK INTO MORE CONTROLLABLE LEVEL IS TO EITHER EXPORT A WHOLE LOT MORE OR THE HARD PART, AND THE THING THAT NOBODY WANTS TO HEAR, CUT BACK ON PRODUCTION. AND END OF DAY, WE'RE NOT LOOKING LIKE WE'RE MOVING IN THAT DIRECTION. SO NO. OK SO AS WE SEE THE SUPPLY SITUATION NOT REALLY CHANGING YOU KNOW ARE WE SEEING EXPORTS GO DOWN OR PICKUP FOR DAIRY AT THIS POINT? LOW PRICES CURE LOW PRICES SO WE'LL SEE THEM PICK UP. BUT IN THE IMMEDIATE YOU'VE GOT AN ISSUE WITH TOO MUCH POWDER AVAILABLE TO THE WORLD AND SOME DUMPING ISSUES THERE. YOU'VE GOT BUTTER ON A STEEP DECLINE. SO THE VERY SHORT TERM PICTURE HAS A NEGATIVE TONE TO IT. YOU'VE ALSO GOT AN INVERTED FUTURES MARKET RIGHT NOW WHICH MEANS THE FRONT MONTH IS CLOSER TO CLOSE A MONTH THE FRONT MONTH IS HIGHER IN VALUE THAN YOUR DEFERRED MONTH. THAT'S A REFLECTION OF YOUR SEASONAL CHEESE DEMAND WHICH HAS BEEN THE THE THE BRIGHT SPOT. SO UNFORTUNATELY IT'S A SUPPLY ISSUE AS MIKE HAD INDICATED AND PRODUCERS HAVEN'T BEEN TOLD YET BY THE MARKET THOSE MARKET CLEARING FORCES HAVEN'T COME IN TO TO SAY GET RID OF ANIMALS. WE NEED SOME BIG CHANGES SOMEWHERE WHERE IT'S MUCH HIGHER PRICES HIGHER GRAIN PRICES HIGHER DEMAND OR ALL THREE. THE EXPORT MARKET. SCOTT YOU KNOW WHAT ARE YOU SEEING. WE'VE SEEN THE U.S. DOLLAR INDEX RISING IN VALUE, NOT DECREASE. NOT SOMETHING THAT WE WANT TO SEE WHEN WE LOOK AT THE EXPORT PICTURE. IS THAT IMPACTING ON OUR DAIRY EXPORTS TODAY. WELL I THINK WHEN YOU LOOK AT WHERE WE'VE BEEN SO FAR IN 2017 WE HAVE SEEN SOME STRENGTH IN U.S. EXPORTS. MODERATE. I WILL SAY BUT AT SOME STRENGTH WHEN YOU LOOK AT SOME OF THE CURRENT NEWS WE HAVE OUT WITH A GLOBAL DAIRY TRADE TODAY OUT THAT'S THAT'S LOWER THAN THAT INDEX OF ABOUT 5 PERCENT WHOLE MILK PATTED DOWN BUTTON DOWN TO DOHERTY'S DOWN. ALL THAT WORRIES ME AS WE LOOK AHEAD. KNOW REMIND US IT IS A SUPPLY SITUATION IN THIS COUNTRY BUT ALSO A SUPPLY SITUATION IN THE REST OF THE WORLD. WE'RE SEEING SOME GROWING SUPPLIES IN COUNTRIES AS WELL AS PRETTY LARGE STOCKS IN PLACES LIKE THE EU THAT NEED TO BE WORKED DOWN BEFORE WE CAN GET HIGHER PRICES. HE BROUGHT UP A GOOD POINT ABOUT GROWING SUPPLIES AROUND THE GLOBE REALLY. AND WHEN YOU LOOK AT SOME OF THESE KEY DAIRY PRODUCING AREAS WHERE DO WE NEED TO SEE A PRODUCTION CUT. AND HOW LIKELY IS IT THAT THAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN. WELL BRIAN BROUGHT UP THE POWDER STORY AND I THINK IT'S IMPORTANT TO TALK ABOUT THAT NUMBER OF WEEKS AGO WE WATCHED AS THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION ANNOUNCED THAT THEY WERE LOOKING TOWARDS A WAY TO OFFLOAD THE 400000 METRIC TONS THAT THEY HAVE IN INVENTORY RIGHT NOW BEFORE THEY START BACK UP THEIR INTERVENTION PROGRAM NEXT MARCH. THEY ALSO MENTIONED THEY MAY BE LOOKING AT MARKET PRICING SYSTEM TO MOVE THAT INSTEAD OF HAVING TO WAIT FOR A BENCHMARK TO GET HIT. THEY HAVE A HUGE PILE OF POWDER. WE HAVE LARGE INVENTORIES HERE. CANADA ENGINEERED A CLASS 7 SYSTEM THAT ALLOWS THEM TO DUMP THEIR POWDER ONTO THE OPEN MARKET. THE WORLD IS FLUSH WITH POWDER AND THAT IS KIND OF THE STAPLE GOOD IN THE INGREDIENT TRADE AND SO AS WE TALK ABOUT WHERE PRICES ARE HEADED THAT WILL LIKELY BE A WEIGHT EVERYWHERE AND THE INVENTORIES ARE GOING TO GO AWAY UNTIL WE START BACK AND COW NUMBERS DOWN. AS WE KEEP TALKING ABOUT WE NEED BETTER DEMAND WE WE KEEP TALKING ABOUT HOW WE NEED TO REDUCE SUPPLY. BUT YOU KNOW WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT POSSIBLE BLACK SWAN EVENT WHEN YOU LOOK AT CORN IT AND THINK WHAT COULD IT BE. I MEAN I KNOW THAT'S THE THING ABOUT A BLACK SWAN YOU JUST DON'T KNOW. BUT WHAT COULD IT BE. WITH THIS MARKET. I THINK THE FIRST STEP WOULD BE DEMAND. IF YOU LOOK AT CHINA AND IF WE CAN MAKE INROADS THERE AND THAT'S BEEN TALKED ABOUT. BUT IF WE COULD BUMP THAT THAT SIDE OF OUR EXPORT BUSINESS UPWARD THAT WOULD BE ONE EVENT. THAT WOULD BE HUGE. CHINA'S ANNUALIZED INCREASE IN EXPORTS ABOUT 12 PERCENT A YEAR OR SO THERE IS A MARKET THERE WE NEED TO CAPTURE THAT SO THAT'S ONE. WE SAW THAT 2014 AND CHINA CAME IN AND SCOOPED UP INVENTORY. SO THAT'D BE ONE EVENT. THERE WOULD HAVE TO BE SOMETHING ELSE SO IF YOU WANT SOME IMMEDIATE SOME TYPE OF REAL WEATHER ISSUE IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE THAT DRIVES GRAIN PRICES OR WE'RE BEAN PRICES INTO THE TEENS SOMETHING THAT ALL OF US AND SAYS LOOK WE NEED TO CUT BACK ON THIS HEARD. YOU MENTIONED CHINA WE SAW SOME HEADWAY BEING MADE SOME DEALS WITH THE BEEF INDUSTRY. SO WHY CAN'T WE REALLY BREAK THROUGH THAT CHINESE MARKET AND HAVE THEM AS A RELIABLE CUSTOMER YEAR IN AND YEAR OUT. WELL I THINK WE HAVE THAT OPPORTUNITY LONGER TERM AND I WILL SAY BEEF MARKETS. WE HAVE YEARS TO GET INTO THAT MARKET. I THINK THERE ARE SOME REAL OPPORTUNITIES. I THINK WHEN YOU LOOK AT THOSE BLACK SWANS IN DAIRY, CHINA CERTAINLY IS THE NUMBER ONE THAT WE CAN TALK ABOUT. YOU COULD SEE THEM GETTING SERIOUSLY IN THE DAIRY MARKETS AGAIN LIKE THEY DID IN 2014. AND THAT WOULD PUSH US HIGHER. OTHERWISE IT'S IT'S REALLY HARD TO FIND THOSE MARKETS THAT ARE ACTUALLY LARGE ENOUGH TO MAKE THAT KIND OF BIG LIFT THAT WE NEED TO GET PRICES MUCH HIGHER.

ALL RIGHT WELL THE SUPPLY SITUATION HERE AT HOME WE HAVE GOOD QUALITY FEED AND THAT'S INCENTIVIZING SOME OF THESE PRODUCERS TO PRODUCE MORE MILK. SO WHAT ABOUT THE PRICES MOVING FORWARD. WE NEED TO TAKE A SHORT BREAK BUT WE'LL TALK ABOUT THAT WHEN WE COME BACK. FARM REPORT.

ROUNDTABLE 2
WELCOME BACK TO US FROM ABOARD AGAIN WE'RE HERE FROM FARM JOURNAL MILK BUSINESS CONFERENCE IN LAS VEGAS. LET'S SWITCH GEARS OVER TO TO FEED. YOU KNOW FOR THOSE PRODUCERS WHO HAVEN'T LOCKED IN FEED PRICES MORE LONG TERM YOU KNOW WE CONTINUE TO SEE THESE STAGNANT CORN PRICES AND IT AND SOME OTHER THINGS. DO YOU THINK NOW IS THE TIME TO LOCK THOSE FEED PRICES IN? WELL I THINK AS MARKETS UNFOLD, PRODUCERS SHOULD BE COGNIZANT OF WHERE MARKETS ARE AT. THE BOTTOM LINE IS MARKETS ALWAYS FLUCTUATE. AND SO THE LAST THING YOU WANT TO DO IS GET TOO COMFORTABLE IN TOO RELAXED WITH THE PRICE THINKING THAT TOMORROW IT WILL BE JUST AS GOOD AS TODAY BECAUSE THAT'S WHEN THINGS CHANGE. SO AS YOU LOOK AT OPPORTUNITIES IN THE MARKET. YES THERE ARE PLACES HERE WHERE PEOPLE CAN BE LOOKING FORWARD. THERE'S A LOT OF CARRY IN THE MARKET RIGHT NOW SO YOU DON'T WANT TO BE SUPER AGGRESSIVE BUT AT THE SAME TIME THERE ARE OPTIONS STRATEGIES AVAILABLE TO PEOPLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF WHERE WE'RE AT AND PARTICIPATE IN BETTER PRICES. THAT'S THAT'S THE THAT'S THE BEST WAY TO MANAGE THIS. YOU DON'T WANT TO JUST GET SO COMFORTABLE THAT YOU BACK OFF AND DO NOTHING AND FIND LATER THAT A DROUGHT A CHANGE IN POLICY OR SOMETHING ELSE HAS CAUSED THE MARKETS TO SKYROCKET. NOW YOU'RE LEFT BUYING HIGHER PRICED FEED. WITH CORN PRICES. YOU KNOW WE'VE HAD THIS OLD STOCK SCENARIO AND IT'S JUST KIND OF BEEN THIS WET BLANKET AND NO MATTER IF WE DO GET A LITTLE BIT OF YOU KNOW SOME GOOD NEWS THAT'S KIND OF CAPPED -- BUY THE STOCK SITUATION THAT WE HAVE. HAS THAT CHANGED WHEN WE LOOK AT A GROWING HERD. WE LOOK AT OUR FEED USAGE. HAS THAT CHANGED THAT OLD STOCK SCENARIO. WELL THE NUMBERS HAVEN'T CHANGED. WHEN YOU LOOK AT CARRYIN LAST YEAR ABOUT 2.3 MILLION BUSHELS OF CORN WERE ROUGHLY AT THAT NUMBER NOW, ROUGHLY 40 MILLION BUSHELS OF USE A DAY. SO WE SHOULD HAVE IN THEORY USED UP ALL IN LAST YEARS INVENTORY BY NOW WE'RE BEHIND AT HARVEST. THE QUESTION THAT I WHEN WE WORK WITH PRODUCERS WILL ALWAYS ASK IS IS THERE AN APPRECIABLE DOWNSIDE POTENTIAL FOR THE CORN MARKET FOR APPRECIABLE MEAN SOMETHING I REALLY REGRET IF I LOCK IN FEED NOW. MY BIASES WE'RE AT HARVEST SUPPLIES ARE AT THE GREATEST. NO. SO BOOK THE FEED. LOCK IT IN. GET 3 6 9 12 MONTHS WORTH OF FED ON THE BOOKS BECAUSE WE DON'T THINK THERE'S ANY APPRECIABLE DOWNSIDE THERE. SAME THING WITH MEAL. WHEN YOU LOOK AT CORN ONE OF THE BIG WET RAGS ON CORN HAS BEEN THE WORLD IS GENERALLY OUTNUMBER THE MAJORITY OF CORN STORE IN CHINA WE'RE SEEING FOR THE THIRD YEAR IN A ROW NOW DECREASED IN CHINA CARRYOUT. AND AS LONG AS THEY HAVE A BIG NUMBER ON THE BOOKS IT'S NOT A PROBLEM. BUT MY ANALOGY IT'S ONE OF THESE SITUATIONS WHERE IF WE TAKE A PLANK VERY SIMPLISTIC AND KEEP PUTTING BRICKS ON A PLANK WE HAVE TWO PILLARS. IT'S NOT A PROBLEM TO THE LAST BRICK AND THEN IT BREAKS. WHAT HAPPENS IF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE OR CHINA OR SOUTH AMERICA HAS WEATHER ISSUES BY THE TIME YOU GET ENOUGH INFORMATION TO MAKE IT A GOOD DECISION, THE MARKET WILL ALREADY HAVE MOVED. SO IT'S TIME TO TAKE ACTION NOW EITHER BOOK IT OR BUY THE CALL OPTIONS AS MIKE INDICATED. AND WE DO HAVE THIS GROWING AND GROWING HEART. I MEAN IN ALL PROTEIN SECTORS. I MEAN DEMAND HAS BEEN PHENOMENAL AND THAT'S REALLY KEPT A BALANCE WITH THE SUPPLY SITUATION. THAT IT HAS.

I WOULD SAY THAT EVEN IF WE GREW MUCH FASTER ON THE MEAT AND DAIRY SIDE I THINK WE STILL HAVE AMPLE SUPPLIES OF CORN FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE TO KEEP PRICES IN CHECK. I REMIND US ON THE WEATHER SIDE DON'T FORGET ALFALFA MATTERS A LOT HERE. IT DOESN'T TAKE MONTHS TO GET SOME DRY WEATHER NEXT SPRING TO GET THAT HORSE IN THE FIELD RATIONS TO MOVE UP EVEN MORE QUICKLY THAN PERHAPS WE SEE ON THE CORN AND MEAL SIDE OF THINGS. WE'RE NOVEMBER. WE'RE KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS NEXT USDA REPORT. I HEARD SOME ANALYSTS SAY THAT WE COULD SEE THIS CORN YIELD BE INCREASED BY USDA ANOTHER TWO BUSHELS POSSIBLY ON A NATIONAL SCALE BECAUSE BIG CROPS ONLY GET BIGGER. IF THAT HAPPENS IF WE SEE USDA MAKE ANOTHER SIZABLE INCREASE IN THIS CORN CROP. CAN THE MARKET HANDLE IT. WELL THE MERE FACT THAT PEOPLE ARE ALREADY TALKING ABOUT THE FACT THAT YIELDS COULD GO HIGHER HAS ALREADY FOUND ITS PLACE IN THE MARKET. AND SO THE BOTTOM LINE IS FOR THE FUNDS TO COME IN AND ADD IN AN INCREDIBLE AMOUNT TO THEIR SHORT POSITION FOR FOR THE PRODUCERS TO BE THAT MUCH MORE HARD PRESSED TO SELL CORN HERE. IT'S VERY HARD TO COME BY. AND SO BACK TO BRIAN'S POINT THE DOWNSIDE WHILE IT'S STILL THERE IS RELATIVELY LIMITED. THERE'S NOT A LOT LEFT AT LEAST IN THE SPOT MARKET. DEFERRED PRICING, YEAH POTENTIALLY THAT NEAR $4 MARKET FOR NEXT YEAR MIGHT BE IN JEOPARDY. BUT FOR SPOT PRICES IT'S GOING TO BE A LITTLE BIT HARDER TO PUSH LOWER IN THIS MARKET AS A AS A RESULT OF ANY YIELD INCREASES THAT MAY COME. AT THE SAME TIME WE'RE TRYING TO PREDICT WHAT HAPPENS WITH SOYBEANS RIGHT. AND YOU KNOW SOME PEOPLE THINKING THAT MAYBE THESE LATER SOYBEAN YIELDS THAT ARE COMING OUT AREN'T AS GOOD AS IN THE BEGINNING AND WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE USDA TREND THAT SOYBEAN YIELD A LITTLE BIT. HOW LIKELY IS THAT. I THINK IT'S HIGHLY LIKELY THE THE LATER PLANET CROP IN THE CENTRAL MIDWEST WENT DRY LATE IN THE SEASON AND NOW THERE'S SOME HARVEST ISSUES. THERE ARE SOME ISSUES WITH BEANS GRIND DOWN TOO QUICK AND THEN SHATTERING. THE WEIGHTS WERE COMING IN AT 10 OR MOISTURE CONTENT 10 PERCENT. WE FIGURE ON A 60 BUSHEL YIELD THAT'S TWO AND A HALF BUSHEL DEEP SO YEAH IT'S LIKELY THAT BEING HAS SEEN THE HIGHEST NUMBER AND IT GETS A LITTLE SMALLER. REAL QUICK EVEN THOUGH WE ARE LOOKING AT SUPPLY HERE AT HOME, IS THE MARKET ALREADY STARTING TO HAVE ITS EYES ON SOUTH AMERICA. ABSOLUTELY IT IS I THINK THAT'S THE NEXT BIG PICTURE IN TERMS OF JUST WHERE YIELDS GO IN SOUTH AMERICA. THE NEXT MOVE OR WE'RE GOING TO REALLY BE PAYING ATTENTION TO. ALL RIGHT. WE NEED TO TAKE A QUICK BREAK BUT THEN WE'LL HAVE CLOSING THOUGHTS ON U.S. FARM REPORT.

MARKETS NOW
ALL RIGHT. TIME NOW FOR CLOSING THOUGHTS. SCOTT BROWN WE'LL START  WITH YOU. SO I THINK CHEEP FEED IS GOING TO MAKE LOWER MILK  PRICES FOR 2018 ANOTHER 50, 75 CENTS LOWER. I THINK PRODUCERS  NEED TO KEEP A BALANCED APPROACH. WE'RE HERE TALKING OUT LOOK.  OUTLOOKS CHANGE. THINGS ARE ALWAYS IN A DYNAMIC MODE. HAVE A  BALANCED MARKETING APPROACH. DOING NOTHING IS TYPICALLY THE  MOST RISKY OF ALL. AS YOU LOOK AT 2018. WHAT IS TO PREVENT THAT  FROM LOOKING A LOT LIKE 2016 WHERE THE FIRST PART OF THE YEAR  STARTED WITH PRICES WITH A 13 IN FRONT OF IT. TAKE ACTION BE  PROACTIVE MANAGE PRICES WITH A GOOD PLAN. ALL RIGHT. THANK YOU  ALL FOR BEING HERE AND JOINING ME IN LAS VEGAS. WE'LL BE BACK  WITH MORE U.S. FARM REPORT IN JUST A MOMENT.

JOHN’S WORLD
THIS VETERANS DAY WEEKEND, JOHN PHIPPS HAS A  MESSAGE ABOUT SERVICE. JOHN.  NOVEMBER 11 WAS APTLY CHOSEN AS A DAY TO HONOR THOSE WHO  SERVED IN OUR ARMED FORCES, ADDING MORE SIGNIFICANCE TO WHAT  WAS PREVIOUSLY ARMISTICE DAY, WHEN THE GUNS FINALLY WENT SILENT  AFTER THE GREAT WAR OR WORLD WAR ONE. THESE DAYS, IT HAS  BECOME A MOMENT OF INTENSE PATRIOTIC FERVOR AND A CURIOUS - TO  ME, AT LEAST - NEW CUSTOM: THANKING VETERANS FOR THEIR SERVICE. I  AM A VETERAN, AND IT'S NOT THAT I DON'T APPRECIATE THIS WELL- MEANING RECOGNITION, BUT IN MY CASE, IT'S A DIFFERENT STORY THAN  MOST. I WAS PART OF THAT AGE GROUP PARTICIPATING IN THE INFAMOUS DRAFT  LOTTERY. MY BIRTHDAY YIELDED A DRAFT NUMBER OF 99 WHICH INSURED I  WOULD BE DRAFTED IN 1970. SO I ENLISTED IN THE NAVY AND ENDED  UP A ON A SUBMARINE FOR FOUR YEARS. MY EXPERIENCE IS NOT UNLIKE  MANY OTHERS, EXPECT FOR THE FACT I WAS NOT JUST OK WITH THIS  OUTCOME, I WAS EXCITED BY IT. IN THAT SENIOR YEAR OF CHEMICAL  ENGINEERING, I HAD INTERVIEWED FOR ENTRY-LEVEL JOBS, TAKEN SOME  PLANT TRIPS, AND HAD SEVERAL OFFERS. BUT I WAS FRANKLY LOOKING FOR A  LITTLE MORE EXCITEMENT THAN WORKING A SLIDE RULE AT A CHEMICAL  PLANT. I CHOSE THE NAVY, BELIEVE IT NOT, BECAUSE I THOUGHT THE  UNIFORMS WERE COOL AND I HAD NEVER BEEN OUT OF SIGHT OF LAND IN  MY LIFE. THOSE YEARS AT SEA DID NOT DISAPPOINT. IT WAS THE HARDEST WORK I  HAVE EVER DONE. THE OFFICERS I WORKED WITH CHALLENGED ME EVERY  DAY TO KEEP UP, AND SOME REMAIN CLOSE FRIENDS DECADES LATER.  THE FIVE YEARS I SUPPOSEDLY SACRIFICED FOR MY COUNTRY WERE IN  TRUTH YEARS WHERE MUCH WAS GIVEN TO ME. THE EXPERIENCE WAS A  KEY PART OF MAKING ME WHO I AM. I FULLY UNDERSTAND AND SUPPORT THE RECOGNITION FOR SERVICE IN OUR  ARMED FORCES, BUT SUCH ATTENTION CAN OBSCURE THE FACT THAT FOR  MANY OF US, IT WAS A POWERFUL AND POSITIVE EXPERIENCE. IT ALMOST  BECAME MY CHOSEN PROFESSION. REGARDLESS, TIME SPENT IN  MILITARY SERVICE IS NOT JUST A ONE-WAY TRANSACTION. I'M GRATEFUL I  HAD THE CHANCE TO SERVE. THANK YOU, JOHN. 

TEASE
STILL TO COME, AS THREATS TO WALK AWAY FROM  NAFTA HEAT UP, WHAT'S THE LIKIHOOD THSOE THREATS  TURN INTO REALITY? I FIND OUT FROM FARM JOURNAL'S  MILK BUSINESS CONFERENCE AFTER THE BREAK, AS I  SIT DOWN WITH THREE DAIRY LEADERS, INCLUDING  FORMER AG SECRETARY TOM VILSACK. WE'LL BE RIGHT  BACK. 

HEADLINES
WELCOME BACK TO U-S FARM REPORT THIS VETERANS  DAY WEEKEND. WE HAVE MUCH MORE AHEAD.  IT'S A DAIRY DILEMMA OVER NAFTA. BUT DAIRY LEADERS  SAY ONE THING IS CERTAIN-- WALKING AWAY FROM  NAFTA ISN'T AN OPTION.  AS FARM BUDGETS TIGHTEN, NEW NUMBERS ON A  DIMINISHING WORKING CAPITAL ON FARMS.  AND IS IT A FARMER'S RIGHT TO REPAIR EQUIPMENT?  THAT'S THIS WEEK'S CUSTOMER SUPPORT. 

KC FED SURVEY
NOW FOR THE HEADLINES, AS ERODING BALANCE  SHEETS CONTINE TO BE A CONCERN FOR FARMERS AND  RANCHERS. AND THREE YEARS OF DECLINING NET FARM  INCOME IS EATING AWAY AT WORKING CAPITAL--  SOMETHING SHOW UP ON TEH RADAR OF THE FEDERAL  RESERVE.  THE KANSAS CITY FEDERAL RESERES LATEST AG  CREDIT SURVEY SHOWED 82 PEREN TOF BANEKRS  REPORTED A YEAR OVER YEAR DECLINE IN CROP  PRODUCERS WORKIGN CAPITAL. THE DROP WASN'T AS  SEVERE AS 2016, BUT WAS HIGHER THAN THOSE  BANKERS WITNESSED IN 2014 AND 2015. BUT AT THE SAME TIE, THE SURVEY DID SHOW A  GLIMMER OF HOPE. THE KANSAS CITY FED FOUND  WHILE FARM INCOME CONTINUED TO DECLINE IN THE  THIRD QUARTER, IT WAS AT A SLOWER RATE. 52  PERCEN TOF BANKERS REPORTED FARM INCOE FALLING  FROM LAST YEAR… THE FED SAYS THAT'S THE  SLOWEST SHARE IN TWO YEARS. BUT AUTHOR OF THE SURVEY NATHAN KAUFFMAN SAYS THEY ARE KEEPING AN EYE HEADING INTO 2018. <PROFIT MARGINS ARE STILL PRETTY WEAK AND THERE ARE STILL SOME  PRODUCERS STRUGGLING IN TERMS OF MAINTAINING A POSITIVE PROFIT  MARGIN. SO AS WE GO INTO 2018 I THINK THE FOCUS WILL AGAIN BE ON  WHAT IS THE CASH FLOW PICTURE AND HOW ARE PEOPLE FINANCING THEIR  OPERATIONS FOR THE NEXT YEAR. > THE KANSAS CITY FED COVERS A WIDE GEOGRAPHY, COLORADO, KANSAS, NEBRASKA, OKLAHOMA,  WYOMING, WESTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHERN NEW  MEXICO. KAUFFMAN SAYS AREAS THAT ARE HEAVILY  RELIANT UPON CATTLE ARE FARING BETTER THAN  OTHERS.

PURDUE, CME AG BAROMETER
THE PURDUE-CME AG BAROMETER SHOWS A MAJORITY  OF FARMERS DON'T EXPECT GRAIN PRICES TO IMPROVE  IN 2018.  AND BECAUSE OF THOSE STILL-ANEMIC PRICES,  A GROWING NUMBER OF FARMERS PLAN TO ADJUST  THEIR PRODUCTION PRACTICES NEXT SPRING. . IN THE SURVEY ABOUT 20-PERCENT EXPECT TO REDUCE  THEIR SEEDING RATES. AND ABOUT A THIRD WILL  ADJUST THEIR HYBRID TRAIT PACKAGES. THOSE LEVELS  ARE COMPARABLE TO RESPONSES A YEAR AGO. BUT WHEN IT COMES TO FERTILIZER, FEWER FARMERS  WILL MAKE CHANGES. WHEN IT COMES TO FARMLAND RENTAL RATES, THE  SURVEY SHOWS 80-PERCENT OF THE PRODUCERS DO  NOT EXPECT ANY IMPROVEMENT IN 2018. . BUT MINTERT SAYS WHEN HE ASKED NON-FARMERS THE  SAME QUESTION - SUCH AS BANKERS - HALF OF THAT  GROUP SUGGEST CASH RENTS WILL LIKELY DECINE IN  THE NEW YEAR.

WEATHER
THAT'S IT FOR NEWS...METEOROLOGIST MIKE  HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH A LONGER RANGE LOOK  AT WEATHER. MIKE, DROUGHT IMPROVIG IN AREAS LIKE  THE SOUTHEAST. BUT NOW THE MID-SOUTH SEEING  DRYNESS CREEP IN.  YEAH THAT'S RIGHT. THERE ARE AREAS OF CONCERN ALTHOUGH I  WOULD SAY IN THE COMING WEEK WE'RE GOING TO SEE A LOT OF ACTIVITY  THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES HERE THE JET STREAM AS WE  HEAD INTO THE WEEK LIKE TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BIG  TROUGH OUT WEST AND THAT'S GOING TO BE PRODUCING SOME RIPPLES  COMING EASTWARD. YOU CAN SEE THAT FIRST ONE COMING EASTWARD  THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH A  LINGERING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. THEN THIS WHOLE  TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE EAST. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST COMPUTER MODELS  ARE SHOWING THIS BY FRIDAY IN THE NEXT WEEKEND A BLAST OF VERY  COLD AIR AND LOTS OF SNOW WITH THAT SYSTEM ACROSS PARTS OF THE  GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE TO WATCH THAT ONE NO DOUBT  ABOUT IT. NOW LET'S CHECK OUT THE 30 DAY OUTLOOK FOR  TEMPERATURES. I'M GOING TO GO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE GREAT LAKES  DOWN TO THE ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER. NORTHERN PLAINS NORTHWEST  FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE GULF COAST AREAS  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PRECIPITATION ABOVE NORMAL MID- ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. IN THE COLD AIR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE  NORTHERN PLAINS AND BELOW NORMAL IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS  OF THE COUNTRY. TYNE 

FARM JOURNAL REPORT
AS LEAD NEGOTIATERS FROM CANADA, MEXICO AND  THE U-S PREPARE FOR THE FIFTH ROUND OF NAFTA 2  POITN 0 TALKS, JUST THIS WEEK NEGOTIATERS  ANNOUCNING THEY ARE EXGTENDING THE TALKS BY  TWO DAYS TO GIVE LEADERS MORE TIME TO HASH OUT  A NEW DEAL. TEH U-S DAIRY INDUSTRY IS TAKING A  HARDSTANCE, TRYING  TO BREAKTHROUGH CURRENT  BARRIERS WHEN EXPORTING MILK TO CHINA. BUT IN  THIS FARM JOURNAL REPORT, THREE LEADERS  INCLUDING AG SECRETARY TOM VILSACK SAY WALKING  AWAY FROM A DEAL ISN'T AN OPTION.  DAIRY FARMERS LIKE DEAN STRAUSS ARE GETTING  GOOD AT PRODUCING MILK. TECHNOLOGY IS AT THE FOREFRONT OF AGRICULTURE  TODAY. WE JUST HAVE TO LEARN HOW TO ACCEPT IT AND PUT IT INTO THE  FARM AS FARMERS ARE GRASPING ONTO THE LATEST  TECHNOLOGY  IT'S ADDING  EFFICIENCY TO AN ALREADY GROWING MILK SUPPLY. USDA'S LATEST MILK PRODUCTION REPORT SHOWS  PRODUCTION PER COW IN SEPTEMBER HIT 1 THOUSAND  851 POUNDS. THAT'S THE HIGHEST PRODUCTION PER  COW EVER RECORDED.   THE GROWING SUPPLY IS CREATING A GLUT OF DAIRY  WITH LEADERS SEARCHING FOR A NEW HOME FOR AL  THAT MILK.  SINCE 2003 NEARLY 50 PERCENT OF ALL THE NEW MILK THAT'S  BEEN PRODUCED BY OUR PRODUCERS HAS HAD TO GO IN THE EXPORT  MARKET. AND WITHOUT THAT WE WOULD HAVE HAD A SERIOUS PROBLEM  IN DAIRY. SO I THINK IT'S FAIR TO SAY WHY WE ARE GOING TO FOCUS ON  DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION AND WE'RE GOING TO DO OUR VERY LEVEL BEST.  I THINK  IT'S ALSO FAIR TO SAY THAT THE CHANCES ARE VERY GOOD THAT  WE WON'T BE ABLE JUST WITH DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION ALONE TO BE  ABLE TO DEAL WITH THE INCREASED PRODUCTION WHILE THE DAIRY INDUSTRY WANTS BETTER MARKET  ACCESS TO CANADA, MEXICO IS THE NUMBER ONE  CUSTOMER OF U-S DAIRY… A MARKET THEY NOT ONLY  WANT TO PRESERVE, BUT GROW.  MEXICO IS OUR MOST IMPORTANT MARKET IT'S OVER A BILLION  DOLLARS A YEAR IN SALES. AND IF WE DIDN'T HAVE ACCESS TO THAT  MARKET OR WE HAD TO PAY THE HIGHER HIGHER DUTIES THAT USED TO BE  CHARGED WE PRE-NAFTA WE WOULDN'T HAVE THE EXPORTS WE HAVE  THERE WOULD BE IT BE A SERIOUS HARM TO THE U.S. DAIRY INDUSTRY IF  WE DIDN'T HAVE NAFTA IN THE ACCESS IT PROVIDES US TO MEXICO  GOING BACK TO CANADA.  DAIRY MAY BE A CONTENSIOUS ISSUE WITHIN NAFTA,  BUT DAIRY LEADERS SAY ONE THING IS CLEAR--  FAILURE OF RENOGTIATING NAFTA IS NOT AN OPTION.  WELL I DON'T THINK THAT'S A RESULT THAT U.S. AGRICULTURE IS  GOING TO ACCEPT AND AT THE END OF THE DAY I THINK THERE ARE A LOT  OF OTHER INDUSTRIES THAT WOULD FEEL VERY SIMILAR TO THIS. I THINK THE  RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE ADMINISTRATION IS TO FIGURE OUT CREATIVELY  HOW TO GET THE JOB DONE AND THEY WERE RIGHT TO RAISE THE ISSUE OF  MODERNIZING AND RENEGOTIATING NAFTA, BUT NOW THEY HAVE TO BUT  NOW THEY HAVE TO BRING IT HOME.   I THINK THERE'S JUST TOO MUCH  HERE TO WALK AWAY FROM. I THINK THE ADMINISTRATION KNOWS THAT …  I'M OPTIMISTIC WE CAN WE CAN GET THERE AND I KNOW THE  ADMINISTRATION IS GETTING THE MESSAGE. I KNOW CAPITOL HILL IS  GETTING THE MESSAGE. AND I'M OPTIMISTIC WE WILL. WE'LL GET  SOMETHING DONE HERE.BUT AS THE CURRENT ADMINSITRATION REWORKS  CURRENT TRADE DEALS, DYKES SAYS AGRICULTURE IS  MISSING OUT ON OPPORTUNITIES TO BUILD NEW  MARKETS.   BUT AS WE LOOK AT THE FUTURE AND WE LOOK AT THE MILK  COMING AT US AND WE LOOK AT THE IMPORTANCE OF EXPORT MARKETS  WE NEED TO BE LOOKING AT PROACTIVE FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS WITH  COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD ESPECIALLY ASIA-PACIFIC AND PRESENCE   IN JAPAN THIS WEEK OF VIETNAM THIS WEEK THERE ARE PLACES WE  NEED TO BE NEGOTIATING FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS. TODAY. 13:50   BECAUSE IF WE'RE NOT THE EU IS ONE OF THE THINGS WE  HAVEN'T DISCUSSED IS THE WHOLE ISSUE OF GEOGRAPHICAL INDICATIONS,  AND THE CONCERN THAT WE NOW HAVE BOTH IN MEXICO AND JAPAN ON  THIS ISSUE. IT'S ANOTHER ISSUE IS ANOTHER REASON WHY NAFA HAS TO  GET RESOLVED VERY QUICKLY BECAUSE IT WILL ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON  A G.I. ISSUE. FROM TRADE TO A FARM BILL, DAIRY LEADERS ARE  ALSO FIGHTING FOR A BETTER SAFETY NET FOR  FARMERS.   WELL THE TIME THAT THE CURRENT PROGRAM THE  MARSHAL PROTECTION PROGRAM AS YOU KNOW IS NOT WORKING IT'S NOT  WORKING AS INTENDED. IT IS THE RIGHT OUTLINE OF A PROGRAM BUT CUTS  THAT WERE MADE IN THE IN THE POLICY HAS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH  THE 2014 FARM BILL PROCESS REALLY ENDED UP RENDERING IT  INEFFECTIVE.WHEN YOU LOOK AT THEM ARGIN  PROTECTION PROGRAM THAT WAS PASSED IN THE LAST FARM BILL, IT HASN'T  PAID VEY OFTEN . SOME PRODUCERS WI SAY IT'S A SAFETY NET THAT  DOESN'T PROVIDE MUCH HELP, AND I THINK WHEN YOU LOOK AT IT TODAY  AND THE PRODUCR SIGNING UP, THEY'RE SIGIG UP AT VERY LOW LEVELS.  SO HOW DO WE REDUCE PREMIUMS, OR AOTHER WAYS TO INCREASE  PAYMENT SIN LOW MILK PRICE PRIODS> BUT IT'S AN ISSUE THAT COULD ULTIMATELY COME DOWN TO FUNDING.  CANDIDLY I SAID THIS WHEN I WAS SECRETARY AND I'LL  SAY IT NOW THAT I'M NOT. WE OUGHT TO TALK ABOUT IT IN TERMS OF NOT  JUST A FARM BILL IT'S A JOBS BILL. IT'S A RESEARCH BILL. IT'S AN INNOVATION  BILL IT'S A CONSERVATION BILL IT'S IT'S A TRADE BILL. AND IF WE THINK IF WE  START TALKING ABOUT IT IN ITS TOTALITY I THINK PEOPLE WILL UNDERSTAND  THE NECESSITY OF FINDING CREATIVE SOLUTIONS. > IT'S UNCERTAINTY ABOUT CHANGES TO POLICY AND  TRADE THAT WEIGHS ON AN ALREADY PRESSURED  DAIRY MARKET.  "THAT'S REALLY WHAT AGRICLULTRE IS ABOUT SOMETIMES, YOU HAVE TO  LIVE TO LIVE ANOTHER DAY BE SMART ABOUT IT, BE STRATEGIC AND THEN  MOVEFORWARD.  AS PRODUCERS REMIN HOPEFUL, IT'S A GRIM OUTLOOK  ON PRICES THAT'S CREATING A DIRE SITUATION  TODAY… WHICH COULD END UP BEING FOUNDATION TO  GET POLICY ULITMATLEY PUSHED THROUGH  WASHINGTON.  VILSACK ALSO TALKED ABOUT USING FOOD AS A  CONVENER IN CONVERSATION ABOUT TRADE AND THE  FARM BILL. IF YOU CAN BRING SUCH A BIG ISSUE ALL  THE WAY TO THE LEVEL OF THE CONSUMER, HE THINKS  IT'LL HIGHLIGHT THE NEED EVEN MORE.  WHEN WE COME BACK, JOHN PHIPPS. 

CUSTOMER SUPPORT
IT'S AN ISSUE THAT'S SHOWN UP ON THE FLOOR OF  STATE LEGISLATURE, AND IT'S CREATING QUESTIONS  AMONG VIEWERS. IS IT A FARMER'S RIGHT TO REPAIR  EQUIPMENT?  HERE'S JOHN PHIPPS.  DAVID BREDHOLD IN LOUISVILLE, KENTUCKY SENT THIS HEADS-UP FROM  THE IEEE, A PROFESSIONAL TECHNOLOGY ORGANIZATION REGARDING THE  DEBATE OVER THE RIGHT TO REPAIR. "I SEEM TO REMEMBER ONE OF YOUR SHOWS THAT DISCUSSED THIS  ISSUE. SEE "WHY WE MUST FIGHT FOR THE RIGHT TO REPAIR OUR  ELECTRONICS" BELOW. YOU'LL FIND JOHN DEERE MENTIONED." INDEED IT  IS, DAVID. HERE IS THE PERTINENT PARAGRAPH IN THIS ARTICLE I STRONGLY  RECOMMEND TO ALL FARMERS: "FOR EXAMPLE, AS PART OF JOHN DEERE'S 2016 END USER LICENSING  AGREEMENT, THE BUYER AGREES TO GIVE UP ALL CONTROL OVER THE  ELECTRONICS WITHIN THE MACHINE - INCLUDING SENSORS, ACTUATORS,  AND COMPUTING UNITS, AS WELL AS DATA, DOCUMENTATION AND  DIAGNOSTICS. WHAT'S MORE, THE BUYER IS ASSUMED TO HAVE AGREED  TO THE CONTRACT BY SIMPLY SWITCHING ON THE MACHINE. THERE IS NO  DISCUSSION. NO NEGOTIATION. NO SIGNATURE REQUIRED. JUST TURN THE  KEY AND YOU WAIVE YOUR RIGHT TO OWN CRITICAL PARTS OF THE MACHINE  YOU JUST BOUGHT" THE HIGHLIGHTING WAS MINE. WE HAVE TOUCHED ON THIS TOPIC BEFORE, AND YOU MIGHT RECALL I AM  LUKEWARM ON THIS ISSUE. HOWEVER, FOR MANY FAMERS, ESPECIALLY  THOSE WHO LIVE IN MORE ISOLATED PARTS OF THE COUNTRY, I THINK THIS  IS BECOMING A GROWING PROBLEM. NOT BEING ABLE TO EVEN FIND OUT  WHAT ERROR CODE 82 MEANS, FOR EXAMPLE IS FRUSTRATING AND  POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING TO KEEPING MACHINES OPERATING DURING PEAK  PPERIODS. THE OBVIOUS REPLY TO THESE CONCERNS IS TO NOT BUY THOSE  MACHINES, BUY ANOTHER BRAND. I SUSPECT THERE IS A BRISK DEMAND  FOR GRAY MARKET TOOLS LIKE DIAGNOSTIC SOFTWARE AND HARDWARE AS  MORE MANUFACTURERS ADOPT THESE POLICIES. ALREADY THERE ARE  YOUTUBE VIDEOS ON ALL KINDS OF REPAIRS, AND THIRD-PARTY PARTS  RETAILERS TO SUPPLY DO-IT-YOURSELF OWNERS. IF YOU REMEMBER THAT'S  HOW I FIXED MY CLOTHES DRYER. NONETHELESS, THERE ARE RIGHT-TO- REPAIR LAWS WORKING THEIR WAY THROUGH SEVERAL STATE LEGISLATURES. I'M STILL NOT SURE HOW URGENT THIS PROBLEM IS, BUT I AM BECOMING  MORE CONVINCED THAT SUCH TECHNOLOGY OWNERSHIP ISSUES USUALLY  GET SOLVED BY BEING LEAPFROGGED BY NEWER TECHNOLOGY. LEGAL OR  LEGISLATIVE SOLUTIONS TEND TO BE OBSOLETE UPON ARRIVAL. AND WE  SHOULD NOT RULE OUT ANOTHER MANUFACTURER CHOOSING TO MAKE  REPAIR EASIER AS A MARKETING EDGE. REGARDLESS, I'LL KEEP A CLOSER  EYE ON THIS DEBATE. THANKS, JOHN. AND IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR  COMMENTS FOR JOHN, EMAIL HIM AT MAILBAG AT U-S  FARM REPORT DOT COM. 

TEASE
WHEN WE COME BACK, WE HEAD OUT WEST TO TALK TO  BAXTER BLACK. 

BAXTER BLACK
WELCOME BACK. WE ALREADY MADE A TRIP TO VEGAS  THIS WEEKEND. BUT NOW LET'S HEAD A LITTLE  FARTHER SOUTHWEST AND CHECK IN WITH BAXTER  BLACK.   EVERYWHERE I GO 10 PERCENT OF THE PEOPLE DO 90 PERCENT  OF THE WORK AND THEY GET TO DO IT FOR NOTHING AND THAT'S ABOUT THE  ONLY PERK THEY'RE ASKED TO DONATE TO THE CAUSE OF CONTRIBUTE THEIR  CASH IN THEIR TIME TO GET UP EARLY USUALLY STAY LATE AND ALWAYS  CLAIM THEY DON'T MIND.   THEY SERVE ON BOARDS AND COMMISSIONS PARTICIPATE IN THE  POTLUCK BRINGING SNACKS FOR THE KINDERGARTENERS FOR HAYRIDES.  THEY FURNISH THE TRUCK. THEY TAKE THEIR TURN ON THE FAIR BOARD  DEACONS OR SOCCER MOMS JURY DUTY OR SALVATION ARMY RINGING  BELLS AND GATHERING ALMS. THEY RAISE FUNDS FOR ENDLESS PROJECTS.  THE FOOD BANK THE FFA MISSIONS IN FAR AWAY COUNTRIES. GIRL  SCOUTS AND THE PTA THEY CALL ON THE SHOW TO FIGHT CANCER OR  MAYBE TEACH OTHERS TO READ THROUGH ROTARY LIONS OR KAWANAS.  THEY WORK TO FULFILL A NEED. THE 10 PERCENT YOU CAN COUNT ON TO  SIGN UP TO HELP AND BE ALONE. ALWAYS READY AND WILLING. THEY  MAKE OUR COMMUNITY STRONG. THEY OFTEN DON'T GET THE GLORY HERE  NOTICED BY EVERYONE BUT THEY'RE EASY TO FIND AT THE PARTY.  CLEANING UP AFTER IT'S DONE. WHAT CAUSES MAN.  TO SERVE HIS FELLOW MAN. AT BEST I DISCERN NOT MONEY  BECAUSE SOMETIMES A THANKS IS ALL THEY'LL EARN AND IT CAN'T BE  EVOLUTION.   WHERE ONLY THE TOUGHEST SURVIVE OR LESSONS LEARNED IN THE  CLASSROOM. COMPASSION. SEE PAGE 25.  BUT IT'S THERE. YOU KNOW CERTAIN PEOPLE GIVING SATISFIES  THEIR NEEDS. YOU CAN'T FIND IT IN A BRAIN SCAN BUT YOU CAN SEE IT IN  THEIR DEEDS. NO PHYSICAL EXAM CAN SPOT IT AND IT WON'T SHOW UP  ON THE CHART. BUT IF I HAD TO GUESS WHAT IT IS I'D SAY IT COMES FROM  THE HEART. SO I'LL JUST ADMIT THAT WE'RE LUCKY THE 10 PERCENT ARE  RIGHT HERE BECAUSE WITHOUT THEM NOTHING WOULD HAPPEN AND THEY  DO IT ALL VOLUNTEER. FROM THE GREEK MEANING WORK BLACK A HORSE  AND UNCLEAR MEANING WITHOUT PAY AND I SIGN YOU UP. THIS IS.  BAXTER. FROM OUT THERE.  THANKS, BAXTER. TO HEAR MORE FROM BAXTER, VISIT  BAXTER BLACK DOT COM. WHEN WE COME BACK, TRACTOR TALES AND OUR  COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE...PLEASE STAY WITH US.

TRACTOR TALES
TRACTOR TALES BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE MOST  TRUSTED NAME IN FARM EQUIPMENT, MACHINERY  PETE!. WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES FOLKS! WE'RE HEADING TO NORTH  CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS WEEK FOR A CLASSIC 504 FROM THE FARMALL  FAMILY. OWNER EUGENE VANDEVOORDE TELLS US HE ORDERED THIS BEAUTY  FROM AN ANTIQUE TRACTOR MAGAZINE.  ALL HE KNOWS IS THAT IT FARMED  IN ALABAMA MOST OF ITS LIFE. I'M NOT SURE WHERE IT CAME FROM. THE LAST WORD I GOT FROM THE  GUY I BOUGHT IT FROM. I BOUGHT IT ON AN ANTIQUE TRACTOR MAGAZINE  FROM A TRACTOR SCALPER AND HE SAID IT CAME FROM ALABAMA. SO I  DON'T KNOW WHAT IT DID IN ALABAMA. I DON'T KNOW WHO OWNED IT. I  DON'T KNOW ANYTHING MORE ABOUT IT THAN THAT. WHEN I GOT THE PORK  AMPLIFIER WAS OUT AND IT WOULD RUN. BUT I DID SEVERAL OTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO IT AND DID SOME OTHER  THINGS THAT HAD THE REAR END APART. TOOK IT OVER. TAKE A LOOK AT  IT. PUT NEW TIRES ON THE FRONT TIRES ON THE BACK. I THINK THEY'RE STILL  ORIGINAL. AT LEAST WHEN I BOUGHT IT. FAR AS THAT GOES. THE MOTOR  RUNS FINE NOW. I HAD TO DO A LITTLE TUNE UP ON THE ON THE MOTOR  AND THAT WAY THE TORQUE AMPLIFIER WAS A SIMPLE MATTER IT'S NOT A  BIG DEAL. FAR AS I'M CONCERNED BUT I'VE GOT IT ALL ON THE RADIATOR  WAS BAD. I HAD TO TAKE THE RADIATOR OUT AND CLEAN IT UP. I LIKE THE  TRACTOR SIMPLY TO GO ON TRACTOR DRIVES WITH IT'S VERY ECONOMICAL I  CAN RUN TWO DAYS AND STILL HAVE FUEL IN THE TANK. IT DRIVES NICE  YOU SET HIGH AND YOU'RE NOT IN THE DUST OR ANYTHING IF YOU'RE ON  GRAVEL ROADS AND I AM GETTING OLDER AND I AM GETTING LAZIER OR  WHATEVER YOU WANT TO CALL IT. I WANTED AN EASIER WAY TO GET UP ON  IT SO I WENT TO THE SCRAP PILE AND I FOUND SOME SCRAP AND  ALUMINUM STEPS. I DON'T KNOW WHERE THEY CAME FROM. THEY WERE  LAYING IN THE SCRAP PILE SO I SAID HECK I'LL JUST USE THEM I DON'T  KNOW WHO THEY BELONG TO BUT THEY'RE THEY'RE MINE NOW. SO THAT'S  ALL THAT COUNTS. REALLY EASY TO GET UP ON AND OFF OF STAIRS. GOOD GOD POWER  STEERING. IT'S GOT THREE POINT HITCH. IT'S GOT TORQUE AMPLIFIER IT'S GOT  LIVE PTO. IT'S GOT ALL THE TOYS. THE MAIN THING. YOU KNOW THAT'S  WHAT YOU WANT. AND YOU STARTED BUYING ANTIQUE STUFF YOU GET ALL  THE TOYS. JUST A NEAT NICE LITTLE TRACTOR. IT DOESN'T WEIGH MUCH YOU  CAN PUT IT ON A TRAILER AND GET ON THE ROAD WITH A PICK UP AND  AWAY YOU GO.

COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE
THE COUNTRY CHURCH LOCATED IN FALON, NEVADA.  THE CHURCH ACTUALLY HAD AN ATTIC FIRE MANY  YEARS AGO, SO SERVICES HAD BEEN HELD IN THE  FELOWSHIP HALL. HOWEVER, THE CNOGREGATION  WORKED TO REMODEL THE TOP OF THE CHURCH AND  REBUILD IT…THANKS FOR SENDING THAT IN.     AS ALWAYS WE WANT TO LEARN ABOUT YOUR HOME  CHURCH AS WELL... SALUTES CAN BE SENT TO THE  ADDRESS ON THE SCREEN.  STAY WITH US - FROM THE  FARM IS NEXT.

FROM THE FARM
WELL, MIKE, I EMCEEED AN EVENT IN LAS VEGAS THIS WEEK. AND AS I RETURNED HOME TO NORTHERN INDIANA, I WAS QUICLY REMINDED WINTER IS QUICKLY APPROACHING. YEAH. I SAW SOME SNOW PHOTOS THIS WEEK, BUT I'M CHOOSING NOT TO SHARE THOSE. I SAW SOME SNOW PHOTOS AGAIN THIS WEEK, MIKE,  BUT LET'S FOCUS ON THOSE NOT SEEING SNOW JUST  YET. STEPHAIE SCHOCKER IS IN BIG ROCK, IOWA. SHE  SAYS GRANDPA HAD A COPILOT THIS WEEK-HIS 9 ½ MONTH OLD GRANDSON KEPT HIM COMPANY WHILE  HARVSETIG. AND  THERE'S NOTHING LIKE A FALL SUNSET--  ESPECIALLY WHEN FINISHING HARVEST. JOSH  MOENKOFF CAPTURED THESE GORGEOUS PHOTOS AS  HE SAID HARVEST WAS COMING TO AN END UNDER THE  SUN IN THE MISSOURI RIVER BOTTOMS. HE SAID YIELDS  WERE REALLY ALL OVER THE BOARD, AS THE SPORADIC  RAINFALL REALLY GOOD A TOLL ON THIS YEAR'S CROP.  BUT OVERALL, YIELDS ENDED UP BEING ABOUT  AVERAGE.   IF YOU HAVE A PICTURE OF VIDEO YOU'D LIKE TO SEND  IN, SEND THOSE TO MAILBAG-AT-U-S-FARM-REPORT-DOT- COM OR CHECK US OUT ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER.

CLOSE
FROM ALL OF US AT U.S. FARM REPORT, I'M TYNE  MORGAN. THANK YOU FOR WATCHING U-S FARM  REPORT.  BE SURE TO JOIN US RIGHT HERE AGAIN NEXT  WEEK, AS WE WORK TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION. HAVE  A GREAT WEEKEND, EVERYONE AND THANK YOU TO ALL THE VETERANS TUNINGIN. 

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