USFR Weekly Recap - October 21-22, 2017

October 21, 2017 03:30 AM
 
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TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
OCTOBER 21-22, 2017


HEADLINES
WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M TYNE MORGAN,  AND HERE'S WHAT WE'RE WORKING ON FOR YOU THIS  WEEKEND.  TRADE TALKS TURN STERN... .   <IN ROUNDS 3 AND 4, WE HAVE SEEN PROPOSALS THAT WOULD TURN  BACK THE CLOCK ON 23 YEARS OF PREDICTABILITY>CANADIAN AND MEXICAN OFFICIALS SAY NO DEAL, AS  THE U-S PUSHES THE ENVELOPE ON A COUPLE PAIN  POINTS.  THE STORYLINE OF USED EQUIPMENT IS CHANGING,  THANKS TO BOUNTIFUL BUSHELS IN THE SHOW-ME  STATE.   RAIN MAKES GRAIN. AND WE HAD MORE  RAIN THIS JULY THAN PROBABLY EVER IN HISTORY OF BATES COUNTY.  >    WE'RE ON THE ROAD WITH MACINERY PETE.  AND IN JOHN'S WORLD.  <A LITTLE BREAK><U.S. FARM REPORT - BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE DEPENDABLE, LONG  LASTING, CHEVY SILVERADO.>

EPA, RENEWABLE FUEL STANDARD
NOW FOR THE NEWS THAT MOVED THE MARKETS THIS  WEEK...A DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE CHIEF OF  STATE AND THE HEAD OF THE EPA OVER THE  RENEWABLE FUELS STANDARD COMING TO A HEAD THIS  WEEK.  WHITE HOUSE OFFICIALS DIRECTING EPA DIRECTOR  SCOTT PRUITT TO STAND DOWN ON CURRENT EFFORTS  TO LOWER THE FEDERALLY MANDATED LEVELS OF  BIOFUEL IN THE R-F-S   THAT'S AFTER IOWA POLITICIANS PUT HEAVY PRESSURE  ON THE ADMINSTRATION, DEMANDING LEADERS  PROTECT THE DEMAND FOR CROPS LIKE CORN AND  SOYEBANS.  BLOMBERG NEWS REPORTING THE AGENCY WAS TOLD  TO ABANDON TWO PROPOSED CHANGES - A REDUCTION  IN BIODIESEL REQUIREMENTS AND A PROPOSAL TO  ALLOW EXPORTED RENEWABLE FUEL TO COUNT  TOWARD DOMESTIC QUOTAS. THURSDAY, ADMINSTRATOR PRUITT EMAILED A GROUP  OF SENATORS, BACKING THE RFS.  HE SAID, QUOTE MY RESPONSBILITY AS EAP  ADMINSTRATOR OF THE EPA IS TO FAITHFULLY  ADMINSTER THE LAWS PASSED BY THE U.S. CONGRESS.  THIS AGENCY MUST AND WILL RESPECT THOSE LAWS,  END QUOTE.  IOWA REPUBLICAN SENTOR JONIE ERNST CALLIGN IT A  WIN, SAYING THE AMDINSROTOR NOT ONLY COMMITTED  TO FINALING THE RENWABLE VOLUME OBLIGATIONS  RULE, OR RVO, BUT ALSO INCREASING ACCESS TO E15 BLENDS OF GASOLINE YEAR-ROUND. 

USDA CROP PROGRESS
THE SKIES CLEARED THIS WEEK, SETTING THE STAGE  FOR NICE HARVEST PROGRESS.  BUT AS OF MONDAY, USDA SAYS IT CONTINUES TO BE A  MIXED STORY THIS YEAR.  WHILE MINNESOTA WAS THE GARDEN SPOT ALL  SUMMER LONG, IT'S NOW THE LEADER IN HARVEST  DELAYS. USDA SAYS JUST SEVEN PERCENT OF THE STATE'S  CORN HAS BEEN HARVESTED, 31-POINTS BEHIND  AVERAGE. . AND SOYBEANS DON'T LOOK ANY BETTER - NOW 37  POINTS BEHIND THE FIVE YEAR AVERAGE. OVERALL CORN HARVEST IN THE COUNTRY IS 19 POINTS  OFF THE AVERAGE PACE WITH LESS THAN A THIRD  PICKED. IN ADDITION TO MINNESOTA'S BIG DELAYS, IOWA IS 28  POINTS BEHIND. SOYBEAN HARVEST IS ABOUT AT THE HALF WAY POINT,  BUT IT'S ELEVEN POINTS BEHIND. JOINING MINNESOTA WITH BIG DELAYS IS IOWA AND  NEBRASKA WHICH ARE BOTH 34 POINTS BEHIND. AND GLANCING AT WINTER WHEAT - FARMERS ARE  DELAYED GETTING SEED IN THE GROUND. OVERALL,  PLANTING TRAILS AVERAGE BY 11 POITNS.  KANSAS IS  BEHIND THE MOST -- LAGGING AVERAGE BY 33 POINTS.

DROUGHT MONITOR
SOAKING RAIN SYSTEMS LAST WEEK GOOD FOR  DROUGHT, BUT NOT SO GOOD NEWS FOR HARVEST.  THE RAIN  DRAMATICALLY CHANGING THE DROUGHT  MONITOR JUST RELEASED THIS MORNING.  IT SHOWS THE AREA CONSIDERED ABNORMALLY DRY IN  ILLINOIS IMPROVED 40 POITNS IN JUST ONE WEEK.  THAT SAME CATEGORY IN IOWA SAWA  13 POINT  IMPROVEMENT.  THE MODERATE DROUGHT CATEGORY IN SOUTH  DAKOTA IMPROVED 10 POITS IN A WEEK. THAT SAME CATEGORY IN NORTH DAKOTA GREW 23  POINTS BETTER IN A WEEK'S TIME. 

CHINA HOG MARKET
CHINA'S HOG HERD IS ON PACE TO REALIGN SUPPLIES. THE NATION EXPECTED TO SEE A RETURN TO GROWTH  IN 2018 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 6 YEARS. IT CURRENTLY HAS HALF OF THE WORLD TOTAL HOG  HERD AT 420 MILLION HEAD. HOWEVER THAT'S DOWN 55 MILLION IN THE PAST 5  YEARS. ANALYSTS SAY IT COULD GAIN NEARLY HALF OF THAT  BACK IN THE NEXT YEAR.

JBS TROUBLE
MORE TROUBLE BREWING FOR J-B-S, WITH THE  COMPANY NOW FORCED TO  CLOSE SEVEN FACILITIES  IN MATO GROSSO, BRAZIL. THAT SENT SAHRES OF JBS  PLUMMETTING, DOWN `1 PERCENT IN EARLY  AFTERNOON TRADING.  OUR PARTNERS AT DROVERS SAY IT'S A COURT- ORDERED 230 MILLION DOLLAR ASSET FREEZE THAT'S  CAUSING J-B-S TO SUSPEND CATTLE PURCHASES AND  SLAUGHTER AT THOSE SEVEN LOCATIONS.  THE COURT FREEZING THE ASSETS OVER A TAX MATTER  ROUGHT UP BY MATO GROSSA LEGISLATORS.  JBS SAYS THE PLANTS WILL REMAIN CLOSED  INDEFINITELY.  THIS COMES AFTER FORMER JBS CEO WESLEY BATISTA  ADMITTED TO USING FALSE INVOICED TO JUSTIFY THE  AMOUNT OF MONEY HE USED TO PAY BRIBES TO  POLITICIANS. IT WAS ALL IN EXCHANGE FOR TAX  INCENTIVES. 

WEATHER
THOSE ARE THE HEADLINES...METEOROLOGIST MIKE  HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH WEATHER. MIKE, NICE  HARVEST WEATHER THIS WEEK-- JUST WHAT MANY OF  OUR VIEWERS ORDERED FOR OCTOBER. BUT I'VE  HEARD RUMBLINGS THAT HARVEST MAY NOT GO AS  SMOOTH NEXT WEEK IN SOME AREAS.  WELL THAT'S RIGHT TYNE THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR  SHOWERS ONCE IN A WHILE I DON'T SEE ANYTHING TOO HEAVY BUT IT WILL  TURN CHILLIER IN MOST OF THE CORN BELT AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE  WEEK. AND YOU CAN SEE THE DROUGHT MONITOR CONTINUES TO SHOW  THE WORST AREA EASTERN MONTANA INTO THAT DAKOTAS. BUT THERE'S  SOME MODERATE DROUGHT DEVELOPING THERE. ARKANSAS SOME OF  THE SURROUNDING AREAS. NOW WE GO BACK A MONTH. IT WAS A LITTLE  BIT DRIER UP IN PARTS OF IOWA ILLINOIS BACK INTO KANSAS. IT WAS EVEN  DRIER THAN IT IS RIGHT NOW IN THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS AND YOU CAN  SEE AS WE'VE MOVED THROUGH THE LAST FOUR WEEKS THINGS HAVE  CHANGED A LITTLE BIT HAS GOTTEN BETTER THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND  NORTH EASTERN PLAINS BUT A LITTLE BIT WORSE THERE. LIKE I SAID  SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND  STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY  WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST  SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST SHOT OF CHILLIER AIR EVEN  CHILLIER AIR COMES BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT AS WE SEE JUST A  COUPLE OF SHOWERS WITH THAT THROUGH THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS ON  WEDNESDAY THEN THAT FIRST FRONT KIND OF DOUBLE BARRELED FRONT  COMING TOGETHER THEY'RE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST SOME  SCATTERED SHOWERS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND  MUCH OF EASTERN CANADA. THIS IS A COLDER SHOT OF AIR THEN LOOKS  LIKE IT'LL BE COMING AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE LATTER PARTS OF THE  WEEK. THAT WILL BE MOVING DOWN INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE  VALLEYS. I DON'T SEE A LOT OF RAIN WITH ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS IN THE  LOWER 48.   YOU HAVE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE IN CANADA AND NEXT  SYSTEM COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE  WEEK WITH SOME RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ONCE AGAIN. LOOK  CHECK YOUR LONGER RANGE FORECAST COMING UP ON OUR NEXT HALF  HOUR. 

TEASE
THANKS, MIKE. WHEN WE COME BACK, MARK GOLD AND  ANDY SHISSLER ARE IN TO TALK ABOUT THESE  HARVEST PRICES. WE'LL DO THAT NEXT. 

ROUNDTABLE 1
WELCOME BACK THIS WEEKEND ON U.S. FARM REPORT. ANY SHISSLER. MARK GOLD JOINING US. WELL FRIDAY WHEN WE LOOK AT CROP PRICES NOT A GREAT DAY FOR CORN I MEAN A LITTLE BIT LOWER BUT WE WERE TESTING THE DECEMBER CONTRACT. WHAT YOU KNOW IS IT JUST THE SAME STORY WE HAVE TOO MUCH CORN ON OUR HANDS ARE REALLY WHAT IS THE STORY RIGHT NOW IN CORN. I JUST THINK THERE'S A REAL LACK OF TRADING INTEREST IN IT. THE FUNDS ARE PRETTY HEAVY SHORTS PUSH PUSHING CLOSE TO 200000 SHORT NOW WHICH IS ABOUT AS MUCH AS THEY USUALLY DO. WE SEE THAT CHANGE FOR A WHILE BUT I THINK WHEN YOU LOOK AT LIKE THE CORN YIELDS THAT WE'RE SEEING THIS YEAR I LEARNED A COUPLE OF THINGS. LEARN SOMETHING NEW EVERY YEAR AND ONE IS IT DOESN'T GET HOT IN THE EVENING. THESE YIELDS CAN BE PRETTY GOOD EVEN IF IT'S DRY. IT SEEMS LIKE THIS CORN CAN SHOOT DOWN LIKE 15 FEET IN THE GROUND TO FIND MOISTURE BECAUSE THESE FIELDS SHOULDN'T BE THIS GOOD BUT THEY ARE NOT SO MUCH WITH THE BEANS THOUGH.  SO THESE YIELDS ARE GOOD AND YOU KNOW WE SAW USDA CONTINUE TO RAISE ITS FORECAST WHEN IT COMES TO THE U.S. CORN CROP. SO DO YOU THINK THAT FURTHER WEIGHS ON PRICES MOVING FORWARD I MEAN DO YOU THINK THERE'S MORE DOWNSIDE RISK.  WELL I THINK ONE OF THE PROBLEMS IS WE'VE HAD TO WAIT HARVEST BECAUSE THE CORN HASN'T MATURED. SO THERE'S HARVEST PRESSURE KIND OF LAGGED AND IT'S STILL WITH US. WE'VE GOT FIRST NOTICE DAY IN NOVEMBER BEANS COMING UP ON THE THIRTY FIRST. I'VE ALWAYS SAID YOU ALWAYS LOOK TO BUY HEAVY DELIVERIES AND FIRST NOTICE DAY. SO THE BEANS COME THE FIRST OF THE MONTH MAYBE OK. IT'S EVEN POSSIBLE THAT WE MAKE A NEW LOW IN THE CORN. GIVE OR TAKE THE FIRST OF THE MONTH AND THEN I THINK WE CAN RALLY. I THINK WE'RE GOING TO HAVE THE BRUNT OF HARVEST OVER WITH THE NUMBERS WE WILL GOING TO SEE ON MONDAY SHOULD SHOW IS THAT THEY'VE REALLY MADE SOME GOOD INROADS THIS WEEK ON OUR LIST. SO HOPEFULLY THIS HAS BEEN THE LAST PUSH ON THE HARVEST PRESSURE PROFILE.  SO WHAT DO YOU THINK. DO YOU AGREE WITH MARK. THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS NOT NO UPSIDE NOT VERY MUCH UPSIDE POTENTIAL.  ONE THING I THINK IS THIS IS GOING TO BE A BEING DRIVEN MARKET. AND LIKE RIGHT NOW THIS IS THE CHANCE FOR BEINGS TO BE WEAK. AND SO WE'RE HANGING AROUND UPPER NINES SO FARMERS CAN SELL BEANS ON THE FIELD WHICH ENDS UP BEING VERY BULLISH. MISLIKE THESE FIRST BEANS ARE REPLANTED IN APRIL HAVE REALLY STRONG YIELDS. BUT AT THIS MID-MAY STUFF YOU SEE BETWEEN A 5 TO 20 PERCENT DROP FROM YEAR TO YEAR. SO I THINK THERE'S A HIDDEN STORY IN THE MARKET HERE AND I THINK REGARDLESS I THINK YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE A REALLY NICE DYNAMIC MARKET BEANS KIND OF SHOW UP HERE BECAUSE I THINK THE YIELDS THE WHATEVER THE USDA PUTS DOWN I THINK THEY'RE PROBABLY GOING TO BE OFF A LITTLE BIT ANYWAY. I THINK THERE WILL BE TOO HIGH. SO I LIKE TO BE MARKET AFTER THE END OF THE MONTH. THIS IS WHEN THEY CAN BE DOWN. BUT MAN I MEAN TO BE AT 10 BUCKS DURING HARVEST IS REALLY GOOD AND SHOWS THAT IT CAN BE A REALLY STRONG MARKET. SO HE CALLED IT POSSIBLY A DYNAMIC MARKET COMING UP. YOU THINK THAT WE HAVE TO WAIT A COUPLE MORE WEEKS BEFORE THIS DYNAMIC MARKET ACTUALLY HIT THE WATER ON THE FIRST OF THE MONTH.  I'D CERTAINLY BE LOOKING AT BUYING CALL OPTIONS FOR ANYTHING THE GUYS ARE SOLD OUT IN THE FIELDS. I THINK THERE'S BEEN A STRONG INCENTIVE FOR GUYS TO SELL OUT IN THE FIELD STORE THE CORN THIS CORN IS GOING TO BE A MESS FOR A WHILE. I DON'T KNOW HOW YOU SOLVE THE PROBLEM OF 2.3 MILLION BUSHELS IF WE PUT THOSE CORN ACRES BACK INTO CORN THAT WE LOST THIS YEAR AND WE HAVE A NORMAL WEATHER NEXT YEAR. WHAT'S SECURITY GOING TO GO TO. SO I THINK YOU'VE GOT TO BE CAREFUL IF YOU'RE JUST STORING CORN HOPING FOR HIGHER PRICES THAT'S FINE BUT KEEP IT CHEAP CHEAP OR CHEAP KEEP IT PUT CHEAP PUT UNDERNEATH IN CASE WE GO LOWER. BUT LET'S HOPE WE WILL FIRE. I AGREE THAT THE SOYBEAN MARKET THE YIELDS ARE GOING TO BE COMING DOWN. I DON'T SEE THE YIELDS OUT THERE. THIS IS BECAUSE THE GOVERNMENT SEES AND WE'VE ALREADY TAKEN ONE GOOD CUT ON THE CARRY OUT. I THINK WE CAN TAKE ANOTHER ONE.  HOW BIG OF A CUT THAT CARRY OUT THOUGH DO WE NEED. I THINK THAT WE'RE WILL BE AT PIPELINE STOCKS NEXT YEAR. THAT'S WHAT I THINK I THINK. AND FROM WHAT I'VE HEARD FROM CHINA THE DEMANDS BIG ENOUGH THAT IT'S NOT AN ISSUE NO MATTER WHAT THIS CROP SIZE WAS IT WASN'T A PROBLEM. BUT I THINK IF THERE IF THESE ARE THE BIG ONES THESE BIG MARKETS WHEN THE YIELD IS WRONG THE WHOLE TIME BY A COUPLE OF BUSHELS I THINK THE YIELD COULD BE LIKE A 47 OR 45 NATIONALLY WHICH WOULD BE CRAZY. AND SO LIKE I THINK THERE'S A POSSIBILITY THAT THAT'S OUT THERE 47 OR 45 POSSIBLY.  I THINK. WHAT DO YOU THINK.  I DON'T I DON'T KNOW THAT WE CAN GO THAT LOW BUT I THINK 49 48 AND HALF IS IN THE BALLPARK. I THINK THAT TAKES YOU DOWN TWO OR THREE SEVENTY FIVE CARRY OUT. BUT THEN YOU'VE GOT BRAZIL AND ARGENTINA. ARGENTINA HAS BEEN TO WELL IT'S BEEN DRYING OUT. BRAZIL HAS BEEN TOO HOT DRY. THEY'VE GOTTEN SOME RAINS BUT IT'S VERY EARLY DOWN THERE. AND I AGREE IT'S NOT GOING TO TAKE MUCH TO FLIP THE SWITCH TO A BULL ARGUMENT AND THE BEANS WHICH IS WHY I HAVE NO INTEREST IN SELLING BEANS YOU KNOW IN OCTOBER AND NOVEMBER DOWN HERE I WANT TO BUY BEANS OF CORN. I WANT TO BE SHORT 350 CORN. NO. BUT I DON'T KNOW THAT THERE'S A WHOLE LOT OF UPSIDE. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME DOWNSIDE. BUT LONGER TERM I THINK YOU'VE GOT TO LOOK AT THE LONG SIDE OF THESE MARKETS. IF BEANS RALLY ME MEAL WILL BE LEADING IT. AND THAT'LL HELP THE CORN MARKET.  ALL RIGHT. MARK YOU ALWAYS SAY YOU HAVE AT LEAST ONE CHANCE TO AN OPPORTUNITY TO MARKET YOUR GRADE. SO HAVE WE MISSED THAT OPPORTUNITY WHEN IT COMES TO CORE AND WE'LL HIT ON THAT NEXT ON U.S. FARM REPORT.

ROUNDTABLE 2
ALL RIGHT. WELCOME BACK. WELL IT SOUNDS LIKE YOU THINK THERE'S A MORE FAVORABLE STORY IN STORY IN SOBEANS THAN THERE IS CORN AND THAT'S KIND OF WHAT WE'VE BEEN HEARING. SO WHAT WOULD YOU SUGGEST THOUGH FOR THOSE FARMERS HARVESTING CORN RIGHT NOW. WHAT SHOULD THEY BE DOING WITH THEIR GRAIN.  WELL WE'VE GOT HISTORICALLY BAD BASIS. SO IT'S LIKE IT'S HARD TO SELL CORN. YOU DON'T WANT TO SELL CORN DURING HARVEST. YOU HAVE TO PUT IT AWAY. I MEAN THAT'S THE THING AND THERE'S A CARRY OUT THERE WHERE YOU COULD SELL IT TO NEXT SUMMER. I ALWAYS SELL CORN AHEAD OF THE NEXT YEAR DURING HARVEST. BELIEVE IT OR NOT BECAUSE YOU ARE CLOSE TO LIKE $4 ON THE BOARD AND THEN THE CALLS ARE LIKE 20 TO 30 CENTS YOU CAN KIND OF GENERATE LIKE A FOUR TWENTY FIVE PRICE. IF YOU DO AN ACCUMULATOR LIKE EVERY YEAR I WRITE ACCUMULATORS RIGHT NOW. I THINK THE CORN MARKET CAN RALLY BECAUSE I THINK BEANS ARE GOING TO RALLY. SO IT'S GOING TO PULL IN. SO IT'S WORTH STORING YOUR CORN BUT THAT'S NOT THE BEST BET.  MARK YOU ALWAYS SAY THOUGH YOU HAVE AT LEAST ONE OPPORTUNITY TO MARKET YOUR GRAIN. YOU'VE GOT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THAT OPPORTUNITY. SILVER CORN SPECIFICALLY IT SOUNDS LIKE WE COULD WE COULD HAVE MORE OPPORTUNITIES IN BEANS BUT CORN SPECIFICALLY IS THAT BEHIND US.  WELL WE HAD ONE GOOD OPPORTUNITY THIS SUMMER TO DO IT RIGHT. AND YOU KNOW WE CERTAINLY PUSH GUYS. SO SELL IT OR AT LEAST BUY PUTS. YOU GOT ABOUT $4. IT'S RELATIVELY CHEAP. WHEN WE WERE OVER $4 IN THE GORNE THAT WAS YOUR OPPORTUNITY. ARE WE GOING TO GET ANOTHER ONE ON THIS CROP. IT'S GOING TO TAKE SOMETHING FAIRLY MIRACULOUS OUT OF SOUTH AMERICA. A REAL DROUGHT SOMETHING SERIOUS WHERE THE CHAIN IS COMING IN OR SOMETHING TO REALLY TURN THIS THING AROUND OR SOME NEW PROGRAM. WE KNOW ETHANOL THE PRESIDENT LOOKS LIKE HE'S GOING TO SUPPORT ETHANOL WAS ONE OF THE REPORTERS CALLED ME THE OTHER DAY AND SAID HOW ARE WE GOING TO FIX THIS CORN SITUATION. AND I SAID WE'VE GOT TO DO SOMETHING HERE. YOU KNOW BACK IN 2002 2007 WE HAD 35 MILLION ACRES IN CERP. IF WE COULD JUST LOSE FIVE OR SIX MILLION ACRES SOMEHOW. I THINK THAT CHANGES THE DYNAMICS OF THIS MARKET QUITE A BIT. BUT CAN'T WE GET THAT DONE IN WASHINGTON WITH EVERYTHING THAT'S GOING ON IN WASHINGTON. I DOUBT THAT MARK MENTIONED CHINA I MEAN WE HAVE ALL THESE ARE EF-S RUMBLINGS HERE IN THE US THIS WEEK. BUT YOU KNOW WE HAD HEARD ABOUT CHINA INCREASING TO HIGHER ETHANOL BLENDS AND WE KNOW THAT'S NOT GOING TO TAKE PLACE UNTIL 2020 MORE AROUND THAT TIME FRAME. BUT IS THERE A POSSIBILITY THAT CHINA MAY COME TO THE U.S. TO BUY CORN BEFORE THAT.  I'LL SAY THIS IT'S GOING TO TAKE ABOUT THREE YEARS TO GET THE ETHANOL THING RUN IN THERE BUT IT'S GOING TO BE I THINK A BUILDING PROCESS KIND OF LIKE IT WAS HERE IN THE U.S. THREE YEARS THAN THE NEXT THREE YEARS. WELL THE OTHER THING I CAN SAY IS THAT THERE ARE STOCKPILES OF GUYS IN CHINA SAY DON'T WORRY ABOUT IT DOWN TO PROBABLY 30 PERCENT USABLE NOW. SO 70 PERCENT OF IT'S JUST BAD THAT YOU CAN'T EVEN USE FOR ETHANOL. IT'S JUST BAD. THEY SAY THEY'RE DOWN TO ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CARRY ON. NOW THIS IS WHAT THEY SAY. SO THEN IF I'M HEARING THIS THEN YOU KNOW IT'S NOT GOING TO BE NEXT YEAR OR THIS YEAR FOR CORN NEXT YEAR FOR CORN THE NEXT YEAR I MEAN YOU'RE LOOKING AT POSSIBLY THREE YEARS OUT BUT WE COULD SEE A BIG MOVE. THEY NEED MONEY.  THEY NEED GOOD QUALITY CORN THIS YEAR AND THEIR CROPS COMING OUT IN THEIR CROP YIELDS ARE ACTUALLY GOING TO BE PRETTY GOOD. SO THEY'RE GOING TO HAVE GOOD CORN. BUT LIKE I DON'T KNOW WHAT WOULD HAPPEN NEXT SUMMER. BUT LIKE I SAY THERE THAT STOCKPILE THING THAT'S THAT STORY IS OVER. SO WHAT DO YOU THINK WHEN THEY COME TO THE U.S.. I DOUBT IT'S THIS YEAR BECAUSE THIS CROP WAS GOOD. I THINK THEY HAVE TO HAVE A SHORTFALL ON THE YIELD SIDE. BUT IF THE PRICE DOES NOT INCREASE AND THEIR PRICE IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS IN THE U.S. THEY'RE GOING TO LOSE ACRES OVER THERE. NOBODY WANTS TO PLANT CORN THAT'S A LOSER AND THEY'RE GOING TO DO A SUBSIDY PAYMENT TO THE FARMERS TOO. SO YOU KNOW IT'S ALL. PRETTY BEARISH BUT THE FACT OF THE MATTER IS WE'VE HAD SOME OF THE BIGGEST BULL MARKET START WITH THE BIGGEST CARRY OUTS AND YOU KNOW WE'RE WE'RE SITTING HERE AT 350 WE'VE BEEN IN THIS NARROW RANGE WE'RE TRYING TO BREAK OUT LAST WEEK. BUT THE FACT OF THE MATTER IS WE CAN SEE THESE MARKETS MOVE HIGHER. ALL IT TAKES IS A GLITCH SOMEWHERE IN THE WORLD OR MAYBE SOUTH AMERICA TO GET THE SAME NOMO.  WELL OTHER THAN SOUTH AMERICA THOUGH OUR EFFECTS HERE AT HOME. THE ADMINISTRATION NOW SAYING THEY'RE GOING TO SUPPORT MORE E-15 BLENDS AND THINGS LIKE THAT.  DO YOU THINK THAT COULD JUMPSTART THE CORN MARKET.  I'M NOT SURE THAT'LL BE THAT BIG OF A DEAL BUT WHAT COULD BE A BIG DEAL THE DOMESTIC FIELD USAGE.  NOBODY'S TALKING ABOUT THAT. WHY DON'T WE TALK ABOUT THAT. I DON'T KNOW. WE'VE GOT CATTLE NUMBERS THAT ARE JUST HUGE AND WE'RE GOING TO GET THE NEW REPORT RIGHT. CAN'T OIL BE DONE THERE. THEY'RE EXPECTING MORE ON FEED MORE CATTLE OUT THERE. SO I THINK THAT CAN BE THAT THAT'S STILL THE CRUX OF THE MATTER IN THE GOLD MARKET. WELL THAT HELP. WHEN WOULD THAT SHOW UP THEN.  I DON'T I WOULDN'T WORRY ABOUT SO MUCH MARKETS KIND OF DEVELOP ON THEIR OWN AND WE SAW BEARISH FUNDAMENTALS IN CATTLE THAT THE WALL OF BEEF AND COULDN'T EVER DO ANYTHING IN THE CATTLE MARKET IS HIGH PRICED AND WE GOT GOOD PRICES SO STUFF CAN HAPPEN EVEN IF THE FUNDAMENTALS DON'T JUSTIFY IT.  LET'S NOT FORGET WE'VE GOT THE FUNDS SHORT A LOT OF CORN AND A LOT OF WHEAT AND THEN SELF COULD BE A BULL MARKET.  ALL RIGHT. WELL SOME SILVER LINING IN ALL OF IT. WE'RE TAKING A QUICK BREAK AND WE'LL GET THEIR CLOSING THOUGHTS ON U.S. FARM REPORT.

MARKETS NOW
ALL RIGHT WELCOME BACK. TIME NOW FOR CLOSING THOUGHTS.  WE'RE GOT SLOT HARVEST RIGHT NOW SO DON'T WORRY ABOUT THE PRICES SO MUCH. THEY SHOULD BE LOW DURING HARVEST. THEY ARE TRYING TO STORE YOUR CORN. TRY TO STORE YOUR BEANS AS LITTLE AS YOU CAN. I LIKE THE MARKET MUCH BETTER IN THE CORN MARKET. GIVEN A CHOICE I WOULD STORE BEANS OVER CORN IF I HAD TO MAKE ROOM MAKE A CHOICE. WELL I THINK FARMERS ARE GOING TO HAVE TO SELL SOMEBODY TO PAY SOME BILLS OUT HERE. THEY'RE MOST LIKELY GOING TO SELL THE BEANS AND THE BEST ADVICE I CAN GIVE THEM IS RIGHT AROUND THE FIRST OF THE MONTH WHATEVER YOU'RE SELLING B CALL OPTIONS AND YOU WANT TO GO OUT TO MAYOR JULY IT'S GOING TO BE A LITTLE MORE EXPENSIVE. BUT THE VOLATILITY IS LOW THE OPTIONS ARE CHEAP AND REPLACE THOSE CASH. SALES WITH SOME CALL OPTIONS.  ALL RIGHT. THANKS FOR JOINING US THIS WEEKEND WE APPRECIATE IT. STAY WITH US. JOHN FITTS JOINS US NEXT.

JOHN’S WORLD
JOHN FINALLY GOT A BREAK FROM HARVESTING THIS  FALL... AND HAD A FEW MINUTES TO REFLECT.  A FEW SPRINKLES HAVE GIVEN US A DAY OFF FROM HARVESTING, AND IT  MIRACULOUSLY HAPPENED ON SUNDAY, SO WE REINTRODUCED  OURSELVES TO OUR CHURCH FRIENDS. BEST OF ALL, WE SEEM TO HAVE  FINALLY DROPPED OUT OF THE MID-EIGHTY DEGREE TEMPERATURES AND  STICKY HUMIDITY. WE'VE HAD JUST ENOUGH RAIN TO ENSURE WE'LL HAVE  TO MOW THE LAWN AGAIN AND TO SPROUT EVERY FIELD-LOSS SOYBEAN.  GIVEN HOW FAR WE COULD BE FROM A HARD FROST, THIS COULD BE QUITE  THE COVER CROP SOON. I MEASURED OUR HARVEST LOSSES AT BETWEEN  1 TO 2 BUSHELS PER ACRE, LARGELY DUE TO SHATTERING WHEN THE  BEANS DROPPED TO BELOW 8% MOISTURE - SOMETHING I HAVE NEVER  EXPERIENCED IN MY CAREER. THAT ALSO MEANS ANOTHER COUPLE OF  BUSHELS OF YIELD LOSS FROM OVER-DRYING. MAYBE IT'S THE YEARS PILING UP, BUT LONG STRETCHES WHEN EVERY  DAY IS SUITABLE FOR WORKING CERTAINLY CAN SPEED HARVEST ALONG,  BUT WE'VE ALSO MANAGED TO COMBINE IT WITH A VERY EFFICIENT PACE  WHERE EVERYONE IS BUSY PRETTY MUCH ALL THE TIME. THE GRAIN CART  CAN JUST KEEP UP WITH THE COMBINE AND THE TRUCKS CAN JUST KEEP  UP WITH BOTH. CONSEQUENTLY, JAN HAS TO PACK ONE-HANDED  LUNCHES AS WE CALL THEM WHEN WE ARE RUNNING ALL OUT. TO MAKE  UP FOR THIS, WE DON'T WORK LONG HOURS. ABOUT EIGHT TO FIVE IS  ENOUGH HEROIC EFFORT FOR THE MATURE MEMBERS OF OUR CREW. BUT I'LL BET I'M NOT THE ONLY FARMER WHO WAKES IN OCTOBER TO THE  SOUND OF RAIN FALLING AND SUDDENLY FINDS HE CAN SLEEP MUCH  BETTER. AND LONGER. HERE'S HOPING YOUR HARVEST PACE MATCHES  YOUR STAMINA TOO. 

TEASE
STILL TO COME,  IS NAFTA DEAD? THAT'S ENXT ON U-S FARM REPORT.

HEADLINES
WELCOME BACK TO U-S FARM REPORT THIS OCTOBER  WEEKEND. WE HAVE MUCH MORE IN STORE OVER THE  NEXT 30 MINUTES... IT'S A NO DEAL WITH NAFTA, AS THE PRESIDENT SAYS  NAFTA ISN'T DEAD YET.  HE'S A FOOTBALL FARMER, PUTTING A PAUSE ON HIS  PASSION FOR FARM FIELDS TO PURSUE HIS PASSION  FOR THE GAME.  BOUNTIFUL BUSHELS IN MISSOURI ARE SPILLING OVER  TO EQUIPMENT DEALERS. WE'RE ON THE ROAD WITH  MACHINERY PETE.  AND VIEWERS DIG INTO JOHN'S TAKE ON NO TILL. 

NAFTA TALKS TO HEAD INTO 2018
NOW FOR THE HEADLINES...NAFTA NEGOTIATIONS  TURNED TENSE THIS WEEK. THAT'S AFTER THE FOURTH  ROUND OF TALKS WRAPPED UP IN WASHINGTON WITH  THE SAME STORY-- NO REAL PROGRESS BEING MADE  ON KEY ISSUES. NOW PRESIDENT TRUMP THROWING  OUT THE IDEA OF TURNING THE TRILATERAL TALKS INTO  A BILATERAL DEAL, WHILE ALSO SAYING NAFTA ISN'T  DEAD YET.  NEGOTIATIONS WILL NOW BLEED OVER INTO 2017 WITH  A FIFTH ROUND OF TALKS NOT SCHEDULED TO KICK OFF  UNTIL NOVEMBER 17TH IN MEXICO.  CANADA REMAINS FIRM IN OPPOSING U-S AUTO AND  DAIRY PROPOSALS... COUNTIRES ALSO REJECTING HTE  U-S PROPOSAL THAT NAFTA SHOULD BE RENEWED  EVERY 5 YEARS. AFTER TRADE TALKS WRAPPED UP, LEADERS FROM ALL THREE NATIONS GATHERED FOR CLOSING THOUGHTS  WHERE THINGS GOT TENSE. .  CANADIAN MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS CHRYSTIA  FREELAND SAYS CANADA'S GOAL COTINUES TO BE TO  MAKE A GOOD AGREEMENT EVEN BETTER. BUT CLAIMS  PROPOSALS FROM THE U-S WOULD TURN BACK TIME. <IN ROUNDS 3 AND 4, WE HAVE SEEN PROPOSALS THAT WOULD TURN  BACK THE CLOCK ON 23 YEARS OF PREDICTABILITY, OPENNESS AND  COLLABORATION UNDER NAFTA. IN SOME CASES, THESE PROPOSALS RUN  COUNTER TO WTO RULES. THIS IS TROUBLING> AS TALKS PROGRESS, PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP  CONTINUES TO VOICE HIS DOUBTS ON WHETHER A NEW  DEAL CAN BE HASHED OUT THAT BODES WELL FOR THE  U-S.  HE EVEN THINK THAT A BILATERAL TRADE PACT WITH  EITHER CANADA OR MEXICO MAY BE THE ROUTE TO GO..  THAT'S IF A DEAL CAN'T BE REACHED TO  SUBSTANTIALLY REVISE NAFTA AS IT STANDS TODAY L

RURAL MAINSTREET INDEX
THE RURAL MAINSTREET INDEX (RMI) RELEASED EACH  MONTH BY CREIGHTON UNIVERSITY IS BECOMING A  BROKEN RECORD WHEN DESCRIBING THE FARM  ECONOMY- THE OVERALL INDEX REMAINING BELOW  GROWTH NEUTRAL. THE BRIGHT SPOT IN THE  SEPTEMBER RMI IS THE INDEX SAW SLIGHT  IMPROVEMENTS, JUMPING FROM 39.6 IN SEPTEMBER TO  45.3 IN OCTOBER.  EVERY STATE SHOWED A BOOST IN  THE RMI, EXCEPT MISSOURI, WHERE THE INDEX SLIPPED  TO 49.2 FROM 51.3 THE RMI IS A SURVEY OF AG BANKERS IN A 10-STATE  REGION. WHILE OCTOBER'S NUMBER SHOWED  OUTLOOKS ARE ON THE RISE, IT'S THE STRUGGLING  FARM ECONOMY DUE TO STAGNANT CROP PRICES  ACTING AS A WET BLANKET ON THE OVERALL RMI.  THE SURVEY SHOWED ALMOST ONE IN 10 BANKERS  EXPECT FARM FORECLOSURES TO BE THE GREATEST  CHALLENGE TO BANKING OPERATIONS OVER THE NEXT  FIVE YEARS. 

GIPSA RULE
AFTER EXTENDING THE COMMENT PERIOD FOR THE  "GIPSA" FINAL RULE FOR SIX MONTHS, USDA HAS NOW  DECIDED TO COMPLETELY WITHDRAW THE PROPOSED  RULE THAT FOCUSED ON COMPETITION IN THE MEAT  PACKING SECTOR. GIPSA - OR THE GRAIN INSPECTION, PACKERS AND  STOCKYARDS ADMINISTRATION - ISSUED WHAT'S  KNOWN AS "FARMER FAIR PRACTICE RULES". IT WAS PUT IN PLACE BY THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION  IN 2016. . IT WAS SCHEDULED TO GO INTO EFFECT THURSDAY. . SEVERAL MAINSTREAM LIVESTOCK GROUPS - LIKE THE  NATIONAL PORK PRODUCERS COUNCIL AND NCBA - SAY  THE RULE WOULD HAVE BEEN DEVASTATING ON  PRODUCERS. AND ARE PLEASED WITH USDA'S  DECISION.

BASF
B-A-S-F NOW REVEALING MORE DETAILS OF ITS PLAN TO  BUY A LARGE CHUNK OF BAYER'S BUSINESS. A  TRANSACTION THAT LAUNCHES BASF INTO THE  BUSINESS OF SELLING CROP SEED FOR THE FIRST TIME.    THE MAJOR ATTRACTIION FOR BASF IS THE LIBERTY  LINK SYSTEM-- BOTH SEEDS AND CHEMISTRY.  THIS WEEK, BASF OUTLINING THE PLAN, WHICH  INCLUDES ACQURING 18-HUNDRED BAYER EMPLOYEES.  700 OF THOSE CURRENTLY RESIDE IN NORTH AMERICA. THE BIG BUY ALSO INCLUDES 81 BAYER SITES, WHICH  WILL TRANSFER INTO THE HANDS OF BASF. THAT  INCLUDES MAJOR ONES LIKE THE RESEARCH TRIANGLE  PARK LOCATION IN RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA. THE HEAD OF BASF'S NORTH AMERICAN BUSINESS, PAUL  REA {RAY} SAYS EVEN THOUGH THE COMPANY WILL  SELL COTTON, CANOLA AND SOYBEAN SEEDS FOR THE  FIRST TIME, BAYER'S BUSINESS COMPLIMENTS BASF'S  CURRENT PIPELINE.  <WHILE WE MAY NOT HAVE SOLD SEED DIRECTLY, WE'VE ALWAYS BEEN  VERY SEED MINDED. WE'VE HAD AN EXISTING AND SUCCESSFUL TRAITS  BUSINESS FOR MANY YEARS. AND IN ADDITION WE'VE HAD A STRONG  SEED TREATMENT BUSINESS. SO, I THINK THAT'S IMPORTANT TO  RECOGNIZE THAT WE HAVE BEEN ACTIVE IN TEH SEED INDUSTRY IN A  DIFFERENT WAY. NOW WE HAVE A TREMENDOUS OPPORTUNITY TO ENTER  THROUGH A VERY SUCCESSFUL PORTFOLIA AND I THINK IT'S IMPORTANT TO  REMEMEBR WE ARE BUYING BUSINESS HERE THAT ARE ALREADY BEING  VERY WELL RUN AND VERY SUCCESSFUL IN THEIR OWN RIGHT AND GROWING  AT A VERY GOOD RATE> REA {RAY} SAYS FROM 2014 TO 2016, SALES OF BAYERS'  HERBICIDE BUSINESS GREW 17 PERCENT PER YEAR. 

WEATHER
THAT'S IT FOR NEWS...METEOROLOGIST MIKE  HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WIITH A LONGER RANGE LOOK  AT WEATHER. MIKE, LOOKING INTO NOVEMBER, WHAT'S  IN STORE?  TYNE THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN KIND  OF SHIFTS A LITTLE BIT FROM WHAT WE'VE BEEN SEEING. BUT THERE ARE  SOME BIG QUESTION MARKS AS WELL WE'LL CHECK THAT OUT IN A  SECOND. JETSTREAM AS YOU'LL NOTICE SHOWS THE FIRST SHOT OF COLDER  AIR COMING FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF  THE COUNTRY AS IT WARMS UP OUT WEST WITH THE BIG RIDGE ON FRIDAY  THEN ANOTHER TROUGH KIND OF DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH  ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR THERE SO THAT MAKES IT CHILLIER THAN  NORMAL IN MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. BY THE END OF  THE WEEK AND THEN WE CAN GO ZONAL A LITTLE BIT BUT THERE'S STILL THAT  COLD AIR TRYING TO COME SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS WE  HEAD INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HERE'S MY 30 DAY OUTLOOK FOR  TEMPTERS AND GOING BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI  VALLEY. PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NORTHEAST  SOUTHWEST AND A LITTLE BIT OF ABOVE NORMAL NORTHWEST  PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL NORTHEAST AND FROM OKLAHOMA  WESTWARD WITH ABOVE NORMAL IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE  NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GOING NEAR NORMAL THOUGH FOR MOST OF THE  GROWING AREAS OF THE CORN BELT TYNE.  THANKS, MIKE.

FARM JOURNAL REPORT
IT'S NOT ONLY THE HEAT OF HARVEST, BUT WE'RE IN  TEH MIDST OF THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL FRENZY.  WHILE  MY ALMA MATTER ISN'T DOING SO HOT THIS  YEAR,  AT OKLAHOMA STATE, ONE YOUNG STAR IS RISING TO  THE TOP.  JAMES WASHINGTON  WAS JUST NAMED TO THE  MIDSEASON ALL-AMERICAN TEAM. BUT HIS PASSION FOR FOOTBALL IS ECLIPSED ONLY BY  HIS PASSION FOR FIELDS OF ANOTHER KIND. LYNDALL STOUT AND OUR FRIENDS AT OKLAHOMA  STATE'S SUNUP TV SHARE HIS STORY. ONE OF THE BEST WIDE RECEIVERS IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL, AND LIKELY TOP NFL DRAFT CHOICE, IS COUNTRY AT HEART. FROM THE SMALL TOWN OF STAMFORD TEXAS, NORTH OF ABILENE. OH I LOVE IT, BECAUSE IT'S NOT BIG, IT'S NOT A BUNCH OF CITY LIFE, WHICH I UNDERSTAND SOME PEOPLE HAVE THAT IN THEM, BUT NOT ME.  WE MET WITH JAMES WASHINGTON AFTER PRACTICE THIS WEEK TO TALK NOT ABOUT FOOTBALL, BUT ABOUT HIS CONNECTION TO AGRICULTURE. I ENJOY GOING OUT TO FARMS AND HUNTING AND FISHING WITH GUYS AND JUST GETTING TO BE ONE WITH NATURE SOMETIMES. IT'S PRETTY SPECIAL, ISN'T IT? IT IS. ENJOY EVERY MINUTE. JAMES' DAD HAS ALWAYS WORKED ON FARMS AND RANCHES. AND JUST THIS WEEK, THEY TALKED ABOUT CHALLENGES WITH THE COTTON CROP. "ELL, HERE, RECENTLY, WITH THE BIG RAIN, FLOODED A BUNCH OF IT, AND IT'S NOT REALLY GROWIN'. IT KINDA LOOK LIKE IT'S GOT ROOT ROT, OR SOMETHING. BUT HAVING TO DEAL WITH THAT, AND SO, HE'LL MISS HIS WEEK'S GAME, BUT HOPEFULLY MY MOM MAKES IT, AND MY COUSINS. " IN THE MEAN TIME, IT'S BUSINESS, AS USUAL, ON CAMPUS. AG BUSINESS, THAT IS. WHEN HE'S NOT PLAYING BALL, JAMES IS A REGULAR STUDENT. CURRENTLY A SENIOR IN THE AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT, AT OKLAHOMA STATE. RODNEY JONES IS HIS ACADEMIC ADVISOR, AND PROFESSOR OF AG FINANCE. "JAMES IS THERE, VERY DILIGENTLY. THAT CLASS MEETS AT 8 O'CLOCK IN THE MORNING, ON MONDAYS AND WEDNESDAYS. SOME STUDENTS SEEM TO STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO THAT CLASS, ONCE IN A WHILE. JAMES IS NOT THAT KIND OF A STUDENT. JAMES IS THERE EVERY MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. "JAMES IS ON TRACK TO GRADUATE IN THE SPRING, AFTER DECIDING TO RETURN, TO PLAY A FOURTH YEAR FOR THE COWBOYS. " I THINK IT SAYS A LOT ABOUT HIS CHARACTER, AND THE IMPORTANCE THAT HE PLACES ON THE EDUCATIONAL COMPONENT OF HIS COLLEGE EXPERIENCE. THANKS LYNDALL. THIS WEEKEND THE COWBOYS WILL BE IN HIS HOME  STATE THIS WEEK TAKING ON THE TEXAS LONGHORNS. UP NEXT, JOHN PHIPPS 

CUSTOMER SUPPORT
JOHN'S GLIMPSE INTO BOTH THE UPSIDE AND  DRAWBACKS OF NO TILL TRIGGERED SOME STRONG  RESPONSES FROM VIEWERS.  SOME GREAT FEEDBACK ON NO-TILL. FIRST FROM LOYAL VIEWER BRYAN  ANDERSON IN SOUTH DAKOTA "THE KEY TO NO-TILL IS LETTING THE WORMS AND MICROORGANISMS DO  THE TILLAGE. THIS MEANS ONE MUST REDUCE THE USE OF STANDARD  COMMERCIAL FERTILIZER THAT CONTAIN HIGH SALTS BECAUSE THE SALT  HURTS WORM POPULATION. IT TAKES OVER 7 YEARS TO CREATE A TRUE NO- TILL SYSTEM. DURING MIDDLE YEARS OF A NO-TILL SYSTEM PROFITABILITY IS  NEGATIVELY AFFECTED DUE TO HIGH COSTS AND AVERAGE YIELDS. HERE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST WE HAVE FARMERS WHO SAY THEY ARE  NO-TILL FARMERS WHEN IN FACT THEY ARE MINIMUM IN-PUTTERS. THEY  DO SOME VERTICAL TILLAGE TO CHOP UP RESIDUE, USE HIGH RATES OF  FERTILIZERS AND NEVER REALLY GET THE SOIL TO CHANGE. THE ORIGINAL NO-TILL GUIDE LINES ARE NOT FOLLOWED. LONG GONE IS THE  CONCERN FOR COMPACTION AND IS RARELY TESTED TO DETERMINE SOIL  HEALTH, IN FACT MANY OF THESE FARMERS BRAG ABOUT DRIVING THROUGH  STANDING WATER IN CROP WITHOUT GETTING STUCK. IN A NO-TILL FIELD THE  WORST THING YOU COULD EVER DO IS BE IN THE FIELD WHEN THE SOIL IS  WET. I STUDIED AND TRIED NO-TILL IN BUT THE ABNORMALLY WET 90'S MADE IT  IMPOSSIBLE TO MAKE IT PROFITABLE IN EASTERN SD. FRIENDS IN  WESTERN SD WHERE IT IS VERY ARID SAY IT WORKS VERY WELL." AND THIS FROM JOHN MORETTI, FROM ELMIRA, NY "GIVEN YOUR YEARS OF WORKING THE LAND, WAS THERE A SIGNIFICANT  DIFFERENCE IN FERTILIZER, AND WEED CONTROL REQUIRED WHEN YOU WENT  TO NO TILL VS TILLING THE SOIL ON AN ANNUAL BASIS? GIVEN WHAT YOU KNOW NOW, HOW WOULD YOU ADVISE A FARMER JUST  STARTING OUT WITH A NEW FIELD?" JOHN, I HAVE TRIED NO-TILL REPEATEDLY, BUT NOW ONLY USE THE  PRACTICE ON A FEW ACRES DESIGNATED AS HIGHLY ERODIBLE. I DON'T  THINK MY EXPERIENCE WOULD BE THAT HELPFUL. TO GET STARTED FIND  PEOPLE AROUND YOU WHO ARE NO-TILLING SUCCESSFULLY AND ASK THEM.  MOST WILL BE GLAD TO HELP. THANKS, JOHN. AND IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR  COMMENTS FOR JOHN, YOU CAN EMAIL HIM AT MAILBAG  AT U-S FARM REPORT DOT COM. 

TEASE
UP NEXT BOUNTIFUL BUSHELS TURNING INTO MOMENTUM AT LOCAL EQUIPMENT DEALERS. WE'RE ON TEH ROAD WITH MACHINERY PETE NEXT.

ON THE ROAD WITH MACHINERY PETE
WELCOME BACK. IT'S A CHANGING STORY AT  EQUIPMENT DEALERS ACROSS THE COUNTRY. AFTER  MONTHS OF LARGER EQUIPMENT SALES SUFFERING,  THINGS ARE LOOKING UP.  THE ASSOCIATION OF EQUIPMENT MANUFACTURER'S SEPTEMBER FLASH REPORT SHOWS SALES OF 4WD  DRIVE FARM TRACTORS CLIMBED 25 PERCENT IN  SEPTEMBER. AND SELF PROPELLED COMBINE  PURCHASES WERE UP 6 PERCENT ON THE MONTH.  IT'S A TREND STARTING TO UNFOLD AT DEALERSHIPS.  LIKE HERITAGE TRACTOR IN ADRIAN, MISSOURI, AS  WE'RE ON THE ROAD THIS MONTH WITH MAHCINERY  PETE.  AS KYLE STUTZMAN DRIVES HOME ANOTHER HARVEST HE'S RELIEVED WITH THE RESULTS.  - "EVERYTHINGS BEEN ABOVE AVERAGE.  WHAT'S CONSIDERED AVERAGE CORN YIELDS IN  GARDEN CITY, MISSOURI? AROUND 140 BUSHELS PER  ACRE.  AND WE HAVEN'T RUN ANYTHING 140.  EVERYHIGNS BEEN 150 TO 200" JUST DOWN THE ROAD,  THE STORYLINE FOR 2017 HARVEST IS THE SAME…  YIELDS ARE GREAT. THE RAINS IN JULY JUST  PHENOMENAL THINGS FOR THE CORN ITSELF.  THE RECIPE THAT SENT YIELDS OVER THE TOP WAS  SIMPLE… RAIN MAKES GRAIN. AND WE HAD MORE RAIN  THIS JULY THAN PROBABLY EVER IN HISTORY OF BATES COUNTY. I WOULD  SAY.   IT'S THOSE CONSISTENT RAINS NOT ONLY HELPING  YIELDS, BUT CHANGING MOODS IN THE AREA.  WE'RE FORTUNATE TO HAVE THE YIELDS  BECAUSE THE COMMODITY PRICES ARE SO LOW, IT'S PRETTY TOUGH TO  PULL A PROFIT. WE'RE JUST HOLDING OUR OWN EVEN WITH THESE HIGH  YIELDS.  AS AREA FARMERS' FINANCIAL OUTLOOK IMPROVES  WITH BETTER YIELDS, THE MOMENTUM IS  SPILLING  OVER TO LOCAL EQUIPMENT DEALERS.  WE'VE HAD WE'VE ALREADY  HAD CUSTOMERS UPGRADE COMBINES BECAUSE THE YIELDS, THEIR  SMALLER COMBINES, NOT ENOUGH CAPACITY SO THAT'S DEFINITELY  HAVNG AN IMPACT.  WE'RE DOWN TO JUST OVER 20 USED COMBINES. SO  WE'RE DOING A PRETTY GOOD POSITION AND STILL SOME VERY STRONG ACTIVITY SOME OF OUR AREAS HAVEN'T STARTED AS  MUCH AS THEY HAVE DOWN HERE WITH HARVEST. YET.  HERITAGE TRACTORS UTILIZING THE MOMENTUM BY ALSO OFFERING A FEW SPEICALS, IN TURN, TIPPING  OFF SOME UNEXPECTED SALES.   IT' LOW INTEREST TO DO THAT RIGHT NOW OR  MAYBE ON A WAIVER EVEN WE'VE DONE A FEW LEASES.  MACHINERY PETE IS WATCHING HARVEST RESULTS  ROLL IN, AS WELL AS EQUIPMENT PRICES… TWO  FACTORS THAT HAVE A DIRECT CORELATION THIS TIME  OF YEAR.   BUT IF YOU'VE GOT RECORD YIELDS AND YOU KNOW  WE WERE TALKING TO FARMERS TODAY AND THEY'RE LIKE YOU KNOW WOW  THIS IS REALLY LOOKING GOOD. SO YOU'RE JUST MORE OPTIMISTIC. AND  THEN IF THE LEVEL OF NEW EQUIPMENT PURCHASED THE LAST ONE TO  THREE YEARS HAS BEEN LOWER, WHICH WE UNDERSTAND WHY THAT IS.  YOU KNOW THESE GUYS GOT TO BE AGGRESSIVE AND THEY CAN'T HAVE  DOWNTIME. SO THAT WHAT IT DOES IS IT FOCUSES THE INTEREST ON THE  VERY BEST CONDITION USED. AND THAT'S WHY WE'RE SEEING THESE  COMPETITIVE PRICES.  HE SAYS SEPTEMBER DREW SOME SURPRISINGLY  STRONG PRICES ON LARGE LATE MODEL TRACTORS.   A LATE MODEL A RED TRACTOR THROUGH T-MODEL  QUAD TRACK 550 900 HOURS BROUGHT 200 23000 HIGHEST I'VE SEEN  IN 21 MONTHS. AND THIS WEEK WE COVERED AN AUCTION IN MICHIGAN  FOR OUR TV SHOW AND THAT HAD A JOHN YOUR NINETY FIVE THIRTY BIG  FOUR WHEEL DRIVE FIVE HUNDRED SEVENTY EIGHT HOURS ON IT. AND  THAT BROUGHT A 175,000 HIGHEST I'VE SEEN IN 34 MONTHS. MACHINERY PETE SAYS THE MARKET TENDS TO  STRENGTHEN TOWARD THE END OF THE YEAR.  . FOLKS ARE JUST MORE OPTIMISTIC SO IF WE KEEP  SEEING THIS. IT COULD LEAD. POTENTIALLY INTO NOVEMBER DECEMBER  WHICH IS A STRONG PERIOD TOO COULD BE A GAIN GANGBUSTER END OF  THE YEAR.  IN WESTERN MISSOURI, IT'S NOT JUST LARGER  EQUIPMENT DRAWING INTEREST.   WE'VE HAD GOOD INTEREST IN  INTERVIEWS PLANTERS, WE'VE HAD SOME GOOD INTEREST IN GRAIN CARTS  THIS YEAR FARMERS LIKE STUTZMAN PREFER TO BUY USED.. "BUT PRICES.. COMMODITY PRICES,  MACHINE PRICES, WE PURCHASED YEAR OLD COMBINES THIS YEAR. " FOR FERGUSON…  WE'VE GOT THREE COMBINES WITH TWO  AUGUR WAGONS.  HIS FLEET IS MIXED…  WE USED TO TRADE VERY FAITHFULLY EVERY TWO  TO THREE YEARS, BUT JUST THE FLAT PRICE OF EQUIPMENT IT'S HARD TO DO.  SO GUESS WHAT. YOU'RE RUNNING ONE MORE YEAR AND FOR A LITTLE  MORE DOLLARS AND REPAIR ON IT.  FOR FERGUSON, IT'S WHAT HE CAN DO INSIDE THE CAB  THAT'S JUST AS IMPORTANT AS WHAT'S GOING ON  OUTSIDE. THESE THINGS HAVE HYBRID IDENTIFICATION  WHILE THEY'RE RUNNING. AND WE'VE SPLIT THE PLANNER AND FIELD AFTER  FIELD. WE GET DATA ON WHAT'S GOING ON FROM ONE HYBRID TO THE  OTHER AND IT'S VERY VALUABLE TO PICK YOUR HYBRIDS FOR THE COMING  YEAR.  IT'S THAT DATA HE GRASPS ONTO INSTANTLY.  BEING ABLE TO UTILIZE THE YIELD MAPS I  MEAN IT MAKES A BIG DIFFERENCE. AS THE GOLDEN GRAIN FLOODS IN, WESTERN MISSOURI  FARMERS ARE LOOKING UP.  "IT'S PRETTY POSITIVE. LIKE I SAID, WE'RE  ALREADY LOOKING FORWARD TO 2018. PUTTING THE FERTILIZE DOWN AND  MAYBE NOT CUTTING AS MANY CORNERS AS WE THOUGHT TO. YOU KNOW,  THERE'S PROFIT HERE, SO THAT ALWAYS MAKES YOU FEEL GOOD AT THE  END OF THE YEAR.  AND A BETTER THAN EXPECTED END TO 2017, IS  CHANGING THE STORY FOR AREA FARMERS IN 2017.   WE'RE GOING TO HAVE A STRONG YEAR JUST  DUE TO THE EXCEPTIONAL YIELDS WE ARE HAVING NEXT MONTH, OUR TRAVELS TAKE US TO WATERLOO,  ILLINOIS. 

TEASE
UP NEXT, MACHINERY PETE REJOINS US FOR A RARE  GAS-POWERED TRACTOR FROM INTERNATIONAL. DON'T  GO ANYWHERE. 

TRACTOR TALES
TRACTOR TALES BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE MOST  TRUSTED NAME IN FARM EQUIPMENT, MACHINERY  PETE!.  WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES FOLKS!  THIS WEEK WE HAVE A  RARE GAS-POWERED TRACTOR FROM INTERNATIONAL. THERE WERE ONLY ABOUT 200 OF THESE GAS GUZZLERS MADE IN THE  U.S.  THIS ONE IS EQUIPPED WITH AN INTERNATIONAL 535 PLOW FOR  SOME SERIOUS FIELD WORK. WE GOT 856 FARMALL. IT'S. 856 GAS. AND I BELIEVE THERE'S ONLY  RIGHT AROUND 200 OF THEM. IT'S GOT THE 3 0 1 CUBIC INCH MOTOR IN IT.  IT'S GOT A LITTLE DIFFERENT GEARING AND SOME LIKE THE H OR AN M IT'S  GOT MORE HYDRAULICS AND STUFF AS AN UPDATED VERSION OF LIKE A  560 OR WHAT HAVE YOU. IT'S HOOKED UP TO A TWO POINT FAST HITCH.  13:16 545 PLOW. MY SON AND I JAKE WE GO TO SOME PLOWING  CONTESTS NOT CONTESTS BUT JUST GO OUT FOR AN AFTERNOON WITH THE  GUYS GO PLOWING AND TALK FARM TALK AND TRACTOR TALK AND MINE'S  BETTER THAN YOURS. AND WE HAVE A GOOD TIME AND THAT'S WHAT IT'S  ALL ABOUT IS HAVING A GOOD TIME.

COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE
TODAY'S COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE GOES TO...VIRGNIA  DALE COMMUNITY CHURCH IN VIRGINIA DALE, COLRADO.  ESTABLISHED IN 1880, THE SMALL COMMUNITY CHURCH  STILL HOLDS SERVICES EVERY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  OUR THANKS TO BOB MORGAN FOR SENDING THAT  CHURCH TRIBUTE IN.  STAY WITH US, FARMING STILL RUNS IN THE BLOOD OF  ONE 94 YEAR OLD. WE'LL HAVE THAT NEXT. 

FROM THE FARM
I HEARD FROM SEVERAL FARMERS WHO HAD A WIDE  OPEN WINDOW TO HARVEST THIS WEEK... IF FIELDS  DRIED OUT.  ILLINOIS SOYBEAN HARVEST IS PROGRESSING RIGHT  ALONG.... AS OF MONDAY, IT WAS ONLY 5 POINTS  BEHIND... FARMERS LIKE DAVE KESTEL HUSTLING TO  GET THE CROPS IN THIS YEAR... AND WHEN FARMING IS IN YOUR BLOOD, IT DRAWS YOU  IN EACH FALL, EVEN IF YOU AREN'T IN THE DRIVER'S  SEAT ANYMORE. THAT'S EXACTLY THE CASE FOR THE  WILSON'S 94 YEAR OLD GRANDFATHER.THEY SAY HE  ISN'T ABLE TO DRIVE OR RIDE IN THE EQUIPMENT ANY  LONGER, BUT THAT DOESN'T KEEP HIM AWAY.  .  IF YOU HAVE A PICTURE OF VIDEO YOU'D LIKE TO SEND  IN, SEND THOSE TO MAILBAG-AT-U-S-FARM-REPORT-DOT- COM OR CHECK US OUT ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER.

CLOSE
FROM ALL OF US AT U.S. FARM REPORT, I'M TYNE  MORGAN. THANK YOU FOR WATCHING U-S FARM  REPORT.  BE SURE TO JOIN US RIGHT HERE AGAIN NEXT  WEEK, AS WE WORK TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION. HAVE  A GREAT WEEKEND, EVERYONE.  

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