USFR Weekly Recap - October 7-8, 2017

October 7, 2017 03:30 AM
 
EWAweb10

TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
OCTOBER 7-8, 2017


HEADLINES
WELCOME TO THIS SPECIAL EDITION OF U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M TYNE MORGAN. OUR BACKDROP IS A FARM  FIELD THIS WEEK. BUT NOT JUST ANY FARM FIELD.. IT'S  ONE THAT WILL BE FLOODED WITH COUNTRY MUSIC  FANS. THAT'S BECAUSE WE'RE TAGGING ALONG THE  LUKE BRYAN FARM TOUR THIS WEEK. AND HERE'S  WHAT'S AHEAD. DRY WEATHER IS DRAINING THE NATION'S  WATERWAYS... AND IT'S IMPACTING FARMERS'  BOTTOMLINE. WE'LL TELL YOU WHY.  AS THE PROTEIN SECTOR OF AG GROWS IN NUMBERS,  IT'S PRESSURING PRICES... BUT HOW LONG COULD IT  LAST? THE HOGS AND PIGS REPORT SAYS WHICH I THINK NOONE WAS  SURPRISED THAT WE'LL HAVE PLENTY OF MORE PORK COMING ONLINE> [6.2] LUKE BRYAN IS RAISING HIS GLASS TO AMERICAN  FARMERS, WHILE GIVING BACK. WE SIT DOWN WITH THE  COUNTRY MUSIC STAR TO FIND OUT WHY.  < I THINK IT'S MORPHED INTO A SPECIAL TRIBUTE TO OUR FARMERS> AND OUR OWN SUPERSTAR JOHN PHIPPS GIVES INSIGHT  FROM THE FARM. <IT'S HOT AND DRY> <U.S. FARM REPORT - BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE DEPENDABLE, LONG  LASTING, CHEVY SILVERADO.>

RIVER BACKLOG
NOW FOR THE MARKET RELATED NEWS, DRY WEATHER  AIDING IMRESSIVE HARVEST PROGRESS, BUT IT'S ALSO  DRAINING MAJOR WATERWAYS. AND AS BARGE TRAFFIC  BACKS UP, FARMERS ARE BEING ASKED TO STORE  GRAIN.  IT COULDN'T COME AT A WORSE TIME, AS FARMERS  WORK TO HARVEST WHAT USDA THINKS IS THE THIRD  LARGEST CORN CROP EVER.  THE ISSUE IS ALONG THE MISSISIPPI, ILLINOIS AND OHIO  RIVERS. LOW RIVER LEVELS MEANS BARGES ARE  HAULING HALF TOW.  U-S WATERWAYS COUNCIL SAYS PORTIONS OF THE  OHIO RIVER ARE NOW CLOSED TO RIVER TRAFFIC, AT  LOCK 52, LOCATED NEAR BROOKPORT, ILLINOIS  THE U-S ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEER SAYS THEY AREN'T  SEEING ANY MAJOR RIVER DELAYS ALONG THE  MISSISSIPPI, BUT THAT'S NOT THE STORY FROM USDA  AND GRAIN HANDLERS LIKE ADM.  ADM REVEALING LAST WEEK THAT BARGE RATES  SURGED, AS REPORTS INDICATE BARGES ARE ONLY  ABLE TO HANDLE HALF NORMAL CAPACITY.  NOW SOME FARMERS SAY THEY'RE BEING ASKED TO  STORE THEIR GRAIN UNTIL THE ISSUE EASES. USDA REPORTING THOSE BARGE RATES ARE UP AS  MUCH AS 50 PERCENT IN SOME AREAS.  AND THEY EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID- OCTOBER.

CROP PROGRESS
ISSUES ON THE WATERWAYS BEING COMPOUNDED AS  FARMERS ARE IN TEH HEAT OF HARVEST.  CORN HARVEST IS NOW 17 PERCENT COMPLETE THAT'S  9 POINTS BEHIND THE FIVE YEAR AVERAGE. THE MAJOR CORN BELT STATES MOSTLY IN THE DOUBLE  DIGITS BUT WELL BEHIND THE FIVE YEAR AVERAGE. ILLINOIS IS 17 POINTS BEHIND, IOWA 12, NEBRASKA 8  AND SOUTH DAKOTA 16 POINTS BEHIND. SOYBEAN HARVEST IS 22 PERCENT COMPLETE  NATIONWIDE...THAT'S JUST A FEW POINTS OFF THE FIVE  YEAR AVERAGE. OPPOSITE CORN BOTH ILLINOIS AND INDIANA ARE  AHEAD OF AVERAGE AND COTTON HARVEST STANDS AT 17 PERCENT CUT. TEXAS IS A QUARTER DONE AND LOUISIANA IS NEARING  THE HALFWAY MARK.

MILK PRICES
THE USDA ROLLING OUT IT'S SEPTEMBER CLASS THREE  MILK PRICE THIS WEEK. AT 16-36 PER HUNDRED ITS DOWN MORE THAN 20 CENTS  FROM THE AUGUST PRICE AND 3 CENTS LOWER THAN  LAST YEAR.  SO FAR THE CLASS THREE PRICE HAS AVERAGED 16-12  THIS YEAR. CLASS FOUR PRICES IN SEPTEMBER FELL 75 CENTS TO  15-86. FOR THE DAIRY INDUSTRY ATTENDING WORLD DAIRY  EXPO THIS WEEK IN MADISON WISCONSIN, PRICES AND  PROFITABILITY ARE TOP OF MIND. < THE NEXT 6 WEEKS, THERE IS SOME OPPORTUNITY HERE  EVENTUALLY BUT BEYOND THAT, THE BIGGER PRODUCTION YOU POINT  TOWARDS WILL LIKELY BE A DARK CLOUD OVER THE MARKET UNLESS OF  COURSE EXPORTS BEGIN TO REALLY TAKE OFF.>

WEATHER
THOSE ARE THE HEADLINES...METEOROLOGIST MIKE  HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH WEATHER...MIKE, WE'VE  HAD RAIN OFF AND ON HERE TODAY, BUT I KNOW MANY  OF OUR VIEWERS SAW THE SAME THIS WEEK. DOES  THAT PATTERN CONTINUE NEXT WEEK FOR THOSE  TRYING TO HARVEST?   TYNE, THE SHORT ANSWER IS NO I THINK THE PATTERN CHANGES  THIS WEEK WE'LL SEE EVERYTHING MOVING FROM EAST TO OR FROM WEST  TO EAST. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE REMNANTS OF NATE THOUGH AND  THAT'S SOMETHING WE'LL BE TRACKING FOR THE DROUGHT MONITOR  SHOWING THE DRYER AREAS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN  PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS STATES ESPECIALLY THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THINGS HAVE GOTTEN BETTER IN MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS LOOK AT A  MONTH AGO IT WAS MUCH WORSE UP THERE. SO IT HAS CONTINUED TO  IMPROVE BUT WATCH EXPAND THE AREA OF MODERATE DROUGHT AT LEAST  PATCHES OF IT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT  LAKES AREA. NOW TAKE A LOOK AT THE WEATHER MAP A DAY BY DAY.  THIS IS THE REMNANTS OF NATE THAT MORE THAN LIKELY IS COMING UP  INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY EXACTLY WHERE THIS IS STILL  PRETTY MUCH UP IN THE AIR DEPENDING ON THE TRACK THAT IT TAKES  ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. BUT A POSSIBILITY OF RAIN FOR THE  EASTERN OHIO VALLEY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  EAST TO THE WEST THOUGH. JUST ONE SMALL SYSTEM IN COLORADO WITH  A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AROUND IT. VERY LITTLE GOING ON. HERE'S THAT  PATTERN CHANGE. DESPITE THAT WEAK SYSTEM IT COMES OUT OF  COLORADO TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THIS IS JUST SCATTERED LIGHT  SHOWERS. THIS IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS  INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN AND SNOW IN  WESTERN CANADA AND FRIDAY VERY LITTLE GOING ON.  EVERY SYSTEM ON HERE IS PRETTY WEAK ALTHOUGH THE ONE IN  THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL HAVE SOME RAIN AND SNOW WITH IT AND  MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. WE'LL CHECK OUR LONGER RANGE FORECAST  IN OUR NEXT HALF HOUR. 

TEASE
THANKS, MIKE. WHEN WE COME BACK, MORE THAN JSUT  CORN AND SOYBEAN PRICES, OUR MARKETING  ROUNDTABLE LOOKS AT THE MACRO PICTURE AND HOW  THAT COULD IMPACT COMMODITY PRICES IN THE  MONTHS AHEAD. CRAIG VANDYKE AND CHRIS  NARARYAN JOIN US NEXT. 

ROUNDTABLE 1
WELCOME BACK IN A SPECIAL EDITION OF U.S. FARM REPORT.   CRAIG VANDYKE. AND TO TALK ABOUT THE MARKETS I MEAN HOW  OFTEN DO YOU GET TO TALK ABOUT. PRICE. AND THE U.S. DOLLAR INDEX  AT A LUKE BRYAN CONCERT. A FIRST TIME FOR THE FIRST TIME FOR HER.  CRAIG LET'S START WITH YOU WHEN WE LOOK AT THIS PROTEIN SECTOR WE  LOOK AT THIS GROWING SIZE. WE LOOK AT YOU KNOW WE LOOK AT CATTLE.  YES. PRICES HAVE HELD UP FAIRLY WELL. DOES THAT SURPRISE YOU. NO IT DOESN'T. I MEAN WE'RE SEEING DEMAND IN THE MARKETS  NOW OBVIOUSLY THAT DEMAND THERE'S THE EBB AND FLOW. YOU KNOW  WE SAW BACK IN THE SUMMER PORK BELLY PRICES PACKERS WERE  KILLING THE HOG JUST FOR THAT ONE CUT. WE'VE RECENTLY COME OFF A  PRETTY DECENT SIZED BREAK FOR THE PAST TWO MONTHS IN STOCKS. THE  HOG AND PIG REPORT SAYS WHICH NO ONE I THINK WAS SURPRISED THAT  PLENTY OF MORE FOR NOMINAL DEMAND WE HAVE SEEN EXPORTS GROW  LAST WEEK AND EXPORT SALES REPORT SO MAYBE THE LOWER PRICES ARE  STARTING TO HURT SOME OF THAT FOREIGN TO ME. I MEAN IF WE CAN GET  BELLY PRICES BACK TO A REASONABLE LEVEL MAYBE WE SEE FUTURES  MAKE SOME GAINS AS WELL.   I NOW THE TECHNICAL SIDE OF THE MARKET IS WHAT YOU LIKE TO  WATCH THOUGH WHEN YOU LOOK AT THAT SPREAD AND SOME OF THE  OTHER FACTORS ON THE CHARTS.  WHAT ARE YOU SEEING RIGHT NOW THE MOST OBVIOUS RIGHT NOW  IS THE CATTLE CATTLE SPREADS. I MEAN YOU SEE HOW WIDE THE OCT,  DEC SPREAD IS. NOW WE'RE HEADED FIRST NOTICE DAY THIS NEXT WEEK.  SO IT WOULD BE PRETTY TYPICAL TO SEE THAT SPREADS START TO NARROW  UP. NOW WE KNOW WE'RE COMING UP INTO A LOT OF BEEF IN THE THE  FOURTH QUARTER OF THIS YEAR COMING INTO THE SPRING. I KNOW THERE'S  A LOT OF BULLISHNESS BUT WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE SPREADS RIGHT NOW  THERE'S ALREADY A LOT OF BULLISHNESS BUILT IN THOSE BACK MONTHS  THAT CONTRACT SO THE SPREADS ARE A LITTLE WIDE. MY CONCERN IS IF THE  SPREAD FAILS THEN I THINK YOU'LL FIND FEEDER PRICES START TO STRUGGLE  A LITTLE BIT. BUT RIGHT NOW FEEDER PRICES HAVE BEEN GOOD.  OF COURSE WE'RE ALL YOU KNOW WE'RE KEEPING AN EYE ON  THESE LIVE STOCK EXPORTS AND WHEN WE LOOK AT LIVESTOCK EXPORTS  AND WE LOOK AT EXPORTS IN GENERAL WE ALWAYS TALK ABOUT THE U.S.  DOLLAR INDEX. YET WHEN WE'VE SEEN THE DOLLAR STRONG YOU KNOW  LIKE LAST YEAR, EXPORTS WERE STILL PRETTY IMPRESSIVE. SO CAN YOU  MAKE THAT CORRELATION STILL TODAY AS WE SEE THAT DOLLAR COME OFF A  LITTLE BIT.   NO I MEAN YOU CAN BUT NOT IN THE WAY THAT MOST PEOPLE  ARE USED TO. SO THE DOLLAR INDEX IS A VERY VERY NARROW INDEX.  THERE'S THE GREAT THE BRITISH POUND THE EURO THE SWEDISH KRONOR  THE CANADIAN DOLLAR AUSSIE DOLLAR THE JAPANESE YEN.  AND SO WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT WHO YOU'RE COMPETING FOR  WITH IN THE EXPORT MARKETS YOU KNOW TAKE CORN FOR EXAMPLE  WHERE YOU KNOW IT'S A MUCH BETTER OR SOYBEANS FOR THAT MATTER  WHERE IT'S MUCH BETTER LOOK AT THE U.S. DOLLAR VERSUS THE  BRAZILIAN REALE OR THE ARGENTINE PESO. SO YOU CAN'T LOOK AT A  NARROW INDEX LIKE THE DOLLAR INDEX AND THEN TRY TO BLOW THAT OUT TO  SOME KIND OF EXPORT TREND FORECASTING SYSTEM.  BUT WHY ARE WE SEEING PRESSURE ON THIS US DOLLAR INDEX  TODAY.  WELL YOU KNOW OBVIOUSLY THERE'S STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.  YOU KNOW WE THINK THAT THE FED COULD PROBABLY RAISE RATES ONE  MORE TIME THIS YEAR. AND YOU KNOW BUT WE'RE NOT SEEING THE  INFLATION THAT WE'VE SEEN SO WE HAVE YOU KNOW PEOPLE IN THE  MARKET ARE TRYING TO TIME IT AS BEST THEY CAN.   IT'S GOING TO ADD A LITTLE BIT OF VOLATILITY, IT'S GOING TO ADD A  LITTLE PRESSURE RIGHT NOW IN ANTICIPATION OF WHAT MAY OCCUR IN THE  FUTURE. BUT IT MAY NOT YOU KNOW IT DOES HAPPEN IT MIGHT BE  DECEMBER IT MIGHT BE MARCH. YOU KNOW WE JUST DON'T KNOW YET. SO YEAH, WE WE HEARD JANET YELLEN WITH THE FED TALK  ABOUT A POSSIBLE ANOTHER INTEREST RATE HIKE YET YEAR YET, YOU  KNOW WHEN I TALK TO YOU A COUPLE OF MONTHS AGO YOU WERE KIND  OF UNCERTAIN IF WE WOULD SEE THAT THAT INTEREST RATE HIKE HAPPEN  AGAIN THIS YEAR. SO WHAT'S CHANGED. HAS THE ECONOMY REALLY  GOTTEN SO I MEAN WHAT SIGNAL WOULD TELL YOU THAT YEAH WE  PROBABLY WILL SEE IT RATE HIKE.   WELL I MEAN AND I'M NOT SAYING THAT WE WILL RIGHT. I SAY I  CAN SEE ONE MAYBE. AND I'M STILL KIND OF ON THE FENCE WHERE WE  WERE A COUPLE OF MONTHS AGO. WE CONTINUE TO SEE TOP LINE  GROWTH. REVENUES ARE IMPROVING. YOU KNOW THAT'S WHY THE STOCK  MARKET CONTINUES TO GRIND HIGHER. AND YOU KNOW WHEN WE ARE  SEEING MORE DEMAND FOR FINISHED GOODS AND PRODUCTS. AND SO  THAT OBVIOUSLY WILL UNDERPIN THAT DEMAND FOR COMMODITIES. BUT  IT'S A LONG SLOW PROCESS SO I DON'T KNOW THAT WE NEED TO RAISE  RATES BUT I THINK IF THEY REALLY WANT TO AND THEY SEE ENOUGH OF AN  INFLATION THREAT THEY MIGHT YOU KNOW RAISE A LOT MORE TIME.   ALL RIGHT CRAIG YOU KNOW WHEN WE TALK TO THE FED ABOUT  MAKING SURE THAT YOU KNOW THEY'RE WATCHING MAKE SURE THAT OUR  ECONOMY ISN'T OVERHEATED AND WE REALLY THOUGH WITH INTEREST  RATES.  WHAT ARE YOU WHAT IS OUR ECONOMIC PICTURE THAT GOOD RIGHT  NOW. YOU KNOW THE FED HAS FAILED US FOR THE PAST 10 YEARS. SO  NOW THEY'VE GOT A VERY BIG BALANCE SHEET TO TRY TO OUT WHY THEY  NEED TO BE EXTREMELY CAUTIOUS IN DOING SO. AND YOU'RE SEEING  THAT FROM THE FED. WE'VE SEEN THAT FROM THE FACT THAT YOU KNOW  THE PAST TWO THREE YEARS HOW CAUTIOUS THEY'RE WILLING TO BE ON  THE INTEREST RATE RISE.   A QUICK SPIKE IS TOO MUCH VOLATILITY WHICH IS WHAT I DON'T  WANT TO SEE. SO YOU KNOW I THINK YOU'LL CONTINUE TO SEE PATIENTS  FROM THEM UNTIL THEY FEEL COMFORTABLE MAKING MOVES THAT THEY  WANT TO MAKE.   WELL WE'VE SEEN THAT WE CONTINUE TO HIT NEW HIGHS WITH THE  STOCK MARKET YOU KNOW. AND IS IT OVERHEATED AND POSSIBLY COULD  WE SEE THAT MONEY FLOW INTO COMMODITY MARKETS LIKE I KNOW A LOT  OF ANALYSTS HAVE HAVE WANTED TO SEE.   I'M GOING TO ASK CRAIG AND CHRIS THAT QUESTION WHEN WE  COME BACK ON U.S. FARM REPORT SO DON'T GO ANYWHERE. 

ROUNDTABLE 2
WELCOME BACK A LITTLE BIT OF A BACKGROUND NOISE FOR YOU AS THEY  PREPARE AND GET READY FOR THE CONCERT FOR THIS MARKETING  ROUNDTABLE. BUT CRAIG STARTING WITH YOU WE TALKED ABOUT THE U.S.  DOLLAR INDEX. WE TALKED ABOUT INTEREST RATES YOU KNOW DO YOU  EXPECT ANY OF THAT TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON COMMODITY PRICES? YOU  KNOW THAT TYPE OF IMPACT IS GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME. IF IT'S GOING  TO COME AT THE END OF THE COMMODITY MARKETS HAVE A JOB TO DO  WHETHER IT'S TO GROW SUPPLY, RATION DEMAND, COMMODITY MARKETS  HAVE A JOB TO DO. CASH FLOWS WILL COME AND GO. AND MAYBE  SOME VOLATILITY WILL COME ABOUT SHOULD THE U.S. DOLLAR GET A LITTLE  BIT MORE VOLATILE. BUT IN REALITY THE BIGGER PICTURE IS THAT THOSE  SMALL TERM BLIPS MAYBE BECAUSE OF INTEREST RATE CHANGES OR U.S.  DOLLAR MOVEMENT OR EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS SHOULD PROBABLY  BE CAPTURED IN THE SHORT TERM. IF WE GET ANY SORT OF MOVEMENT  BECAUSE OF THOSE REASONS. CHRIS WHEN WE LOOK AT THE STOCK  MARKET YOU KNOW EVERY HEADLINE STOCK MARKET HITS A NEW A NEW  RECORD HIGH A NEW RECORD HIGH I MEAN WE CONTINUE TO BREAK  THESE RECORDS. AND THIS HAS BEEN GOING ON FOR QUITE SOME TIME.  BUT AT THIS POINT DO YOU THINK THE STOCK MARKET'S OVERHEATED. IS IT  OVERDONE? NO YOU KNOW I DON'T THINK IT IS OVERHEATED. I MEAN  OBVIOUSLY THERE'S A LOT OF PEOPLE WHO ARE WANTING TO CALL THE TOP  OF SOME POINT SOMEBODY IS GOING TO GET IT RIGHT. BUT YOU KNOW AT  THE END OF THE DAY WHEN YOU LOOK AT WHERE WE ARE, WE'RE SEEING  NOT JUST EARNINGS GROWTH. YOU KNOW IN THE FORM OF COST CUTTING,  BUT WE'RE SEEING REVENUE GROWTH TOP LINE. SO YOU KNOW WE'RE  SEEING MORE YOU KNOW MORE INCREASING DEMAND FOR GOODS AND  SERVICES AND PEOPLE ARE SPENDING MORE MONEY. AND ALSO WHEN  YOU LOOK AT WHERE THE STOCK MARKET IS, IF YOU LOOK AT THE ANALYST  ESTIMATES FOR EARNINGS OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS, YOU KNOW AND  THEN YOU PROJECT THAT AS A MULTIPLE ON THE VALUE OF THE STOCK  MARKET, YOU KNOW WE'RE A LITTLE BIT ABOVE AVERAGE BUT NOT YOU  KNOW GROSSLY SO. I MEAN OBVIOUSLY A LOT OF PEOPLE LOOK AT THE LAST  12 MONTHS AND YES WE ARE MUCH HIGHER THAN THAT BUT THAT'S IN  THE PAST. SO GOING FORWARD IF THESE ESTIMATES ARE EVEN HALFWAY  CORRECT, YOU KNOW WE'RE YOU KNOW WE'RE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER THAN  NORMAL BUT I MEAN WE'RE NOT ANYWHERE CLOSE TO LIKE YOU KNOW  WHAT WE WOULD CALL A HUGE TOP OR FROTHY ENVIRONMENT. BUT AT  SOME POINT. COULD THOSE INVESTORS COULD WHO COULD WE SEE  SOME OF THAT MONEY SPILL OVER INTO THE COMMODITY SECTOR? YOU  KNOW THAT'LL TAKE SOME TIME YOU KNOW TO CRAIG'S POINT EARLIER.  YOU KNOW IF WE SEE INTEREST RATES RISING YOU KNOW OBVIOUSLY  INCREMENTALLY I MEAN WE'RE AT LOW LEVELS RECORD LOW LEVEL SO I  MEAN WE'RE NOT TALKING ABOUT HUGE INTEREST RATE INCREASES.  HOWEVER THAT DOES TAKE SOME OF THE EARNING POTENTIAL OUT OF THE  COMPANIES AND YOU MIGHT SEE A LITTLE BIT OF PROFIT TAKING YOU  COULD SEE A YOU KNOW KIND OF A REDISTRIBUTION OF ASSETS BACK INTO  THE BOND MARKET OR EVEN INTO THE COMMODITIES MARKET. BUT I  THINK WHAT'S REALLY GOING TO BUOY THE COMMODITIES MARKET IS WHAT  WE HAVE TO SEE JUST CONTINUED GROWTH CONTINUED DEMAND. AND  SO YOU KNOW WE NEED MORE DEMAND FOR THESE COMMODITIES  THAT'S WHAT'S REALLY GOING TO SAVE IT. BUT IN ADDITION TO DEMAND, I  MEAN WE'VE SEEN IMPRESSIVE DEMAND FOR SOME OF THESE SECTORS  WHAT IS IT GOING TO TAKE FOR US REALLY TO SEE COMMODITY PRICES  START ON A LARGE UPTICK I MEAN YOU KNOW IF WE CAN'T POINT TO  NECESSARILY WEAKENING U.S. DOLLAR OR YOU KNOW INTEREST RATES  WHAT IS IT GOING TO TAKE CRAIG? I WISH I HAD THAT ANSWER. WE ALL  DO. RIGHT. BUT AT THE END OF THE DAY I THINK YOU NEED TO LOOK FOR SIGNS THAT MAYBE SOMETHING IS COMING ABOUT. YOU KNOW YOU  LOOK AT THE SPREADS RIGHT NOW IN THE CORN MARKET YOU KNOW DEC  CORN TRADING AT A LARGE CARRY 46 47 CENTS. YOU NEED TO RECOGNIZE  IF WE GET SMALL BLIPS IN THE MARKET SMALL UPS IN THE MARKET AND  THE SPREADS DON'T MOVE AT ALL. TO ME THAT'S A SIGN THAT THE  MARKET NEEDS TO BE SOLD. THE MARKET NEEDS TO BE SOLD. NOW IF  WE START TO SEE A CHANGE IN TREND WHERE THE SPREADS START TO  TURN, THEN MAYBE WE CAN SEE MORE EXCITEMENT. WHAT WILL WHAT  WILL GROW THAT? I MEAN RIGHT NOW I DON'T THINK ANYBODY KNOWS  SOME TYPE OF BLACK SWAN EVENT YOU KNOW ISSUE BRAZIL SOMETHING  OUT OF THE BLUE. BUT RIGHT NOW THERE'S NOTHING IN THE FORESEEABLE  FUTURE THAT SAYS YOU KNOW THIS MARKET NEEDS TO RALLY. IN THE SHORT  TERM WHICH COMMODITY SECTOR IN THE GREAT AND LOOK AT GRAIN  SOYBEANS WE WHICH ONE OF THOSE SECTORS DO YOU THINK HAS THE  BEST CHANCE OF SEEING BETTER PRICES? BUT I THINK IF WE LOOK ACROSS  THE BOARD THE SPREADS ARE TERRIBLE AND CORN AND WHEAT SOYBEANS  IS THE MARKET THAT I IF I WANT TO BE FRIENDLY, EVEN THOUGH I DO THINK  YOU KNOW THIS YEAR HAS BEEN A TESTAMENT TO WHAT FARMERS CAN  DO AS FAR AS FARM MANAGEMENT WE THREW EVERYTHING AT THIS  MARKET AS FAR AS WEATHER GOES. AND FROM THE YIELDS I'M ALREADY  HEARING THE WAY THINGS ARE LOOKING IT'S IT'S UNBELIEVABLE WHAT  WE'VE BEEN ABLE TO DO WITH THE TECHNOLOGY NOW. SO UNBELIEVABLE  AS IN LIKE MAYBE USDA ISN'T THAT FAR OFF. AS OF RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS  TO BE THAT WAY. SO I MEAN I LIKE CARRYING BEANS IN THE SPRING. I  LIKE SELLING CORN NOW AND WE SEE IT BRAZIL HAS SOME SORT OF ISSUE  TO HELP US FORWARD. AT THE SAME TIME THOUGH WE'VE HAD REALLY  LOW VOLATILITY IN THESE MARKETS RIGHT? I MEAN HOW LOW A RECORD  LOW VOLATILITY. WE'RE SEEING RECORD LOW VOLATILITY. YOU KNOW  VOLATILITY CREATES OPPORTUNITY SO WE HAVEN'T SEEN SOME OF THAT  OPPORTUNITY THAT WE NORMALLY WOULD. WHAT IS YOUR ADVICE FOR  SOME OF THESE FARMERS TO THINK MORE LIKE A TRADER LOOK AT THE  MACRO. YOU KNOW REALLY TAKE A STEP BACK AND MANAGE THEIR FARM  THE BEST WAY POSSIBLE LOOKING AT THE LOW VOLATILITY THAT WE'VE  BEEN GIVEN? YOU KNOW AND I'M GOING TO GO TO MY FRIEND PETE  MEYER HE MADE AN EXCELLENT POINT A COUPLE OF MONTHS AGO ABOUT  MANAGING YOUR BALANCE SHEET BECAUSE YOU KNOW TIMES ARE  TOUGH RIGHT NOW. NOW YOU KNOW NOW'S THE TIME TO SIT THERE AND  WORRY ABOUT YOU KNOW WHAT EVERYBODY ELSE TO DO AND YOU'VE GOT  TO MANAGE YOUR OWN OPERATION YOU'VE GOT TO GET THAT. ESPECIALLY  IF WE ARE BECAUSE WE WILL BE IT IN A HIGHER INTEREST RATE  ENVIRONMENT IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WE JUST DON'T KNOW QUITE  WHEN AND WE KNOW IT'S GOING TO CONTINUE. YOU KNOW IT'S GOING TO  BE A TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF YEARS. SO NOW IS THE TIME WITH  CHEAP MONEY TO REALLY GET YOUR BOOKS IN ORDER BECAUSE YOU  KNOW WHAT VOLATILITY WILL COME BACK AT SOME POINT WHETHER IT'S  SUPPLY SHOCK OR SOME KIND OF A BLACK SWAN FINANCIAL CRISIS. BUT  FOR NOW YOU HAVE TO BE PREPARED. NOW'S THE TIME TO DO IT. GOOD  ADVICE. ALL RIGHT. THANK YOU BOTH. WE NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER QUICK  BREAK. WHEN WE COME BACK WE'LL GET THE CLOSING THOUGHT . DON'T  GO ANYWHERE.

MARKETS NOW
ALL RIGHT TIME NOW FOR CLOSING THOUGHTS DESPITE BEING AT THE  LUKE BRYAN CONCERT I'M NOT GOING TO ASK YOU YOUR FAVORITE LUKE  BRYAN SONG. WE'LL STICK TO THE MARKETS CLOSING THOUGHTS. CRAIG  WE'LL START WITH YOU.  YOU KNOW THERE'S A LOT OF QUESTION RIGHT NOW AS TO SHOULD I  SELL CORN SHOULD I STORE COURSE SELL BEING SHOULD I STORE BEANS.  WHERE IS THIS MARKET HEADED. YOU KNOW I THINK RIGHT NOW ONE  THING THAT I WANT I WOULD WANT GUYS TO BE PAYING ATTENTION TO, LIKE  I SAID EARLIER IS THE SPREAD IS NARROWING. IF WE START TO SEE  SPREADS NARROW THEN MAYBE WE HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF SIGNS OF LIFE.  BUT IF YOU'RE GOING TO STORE GRAIN, YOU NEED TO CAPTURE THAT CARRY.  THE WAY TO CAPTURE IT IS TO SELL IT OUT WHEN YOU'RE GOING TO WHEN  YOU'RE GOING TO SELL.   ALL RIGHT CHRIS. YOU KNOW I'VE BEEN SAYING THIS IS KIND OF  WHAT I CALL A BARBECUE MARKET, LOW AND SLOW. YOU KNOW WITH SLOW  GROWTH LOW VOLATILITY. YOU KNOW IT USED TO BE BECAUSE OF LOW  INTEREST RATES PEOPLE WERE POURING MONEY INTO THE STOCK MARKET  AND THEN WE STARTED SEEING EARNINGS RISE, AND THEN WE STARTED  SEEING TOP LINE REVENUE RISE. AND SO THAT CONTINUE TO GO.  EVENTUALLY THAT'S GOING TO REVERSE ITSELF WE'RE GOING TO START  SEEING A REALLOCATION OF ASSETS SO I THINK BE MINDFUL OF WHAT'S  GOING ON AND PAY ATTENTION.   ALL RIGHT. THANK YOU FOR BEING HERE. A NICE BACKDROP THIS  WEEK I APPRECIATE THE INSIGHT THANKS FOR HAVING US. YEAH THANK  YOU. STAY WITH US TO A DIFFERENT BAR. THAT'S JOHN FARM NEXT ON  U.S. FARM REPORT. 

JOHN’S WORLD
WITH RAIN FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF HTE U-S THIS  WEEK, SOME OF YOU REALLY NEEDED IT. THAT  INCLUDES JOHN PHIPPS.  THERE HAVE BEEN MANY YEARS I HAVE ANXIOUSLY AWAITED DRY  WEATHER TO GET HARVEST UNDERWAY OR BACK ON TRACK. THERE HAVE  EVEN BEEN A FEW THAT ARE SEARED IN MY MEMORY WHERE MUDDY  RUTS SCARRED OUR FIELDS AND CROPS WERE FINALLY HARVESTED THE  FOLLOWING YEAR. BUT THIS ONE HAS TO TAKE THE CAKE FOR JUST THE OPPOSITE. NOT ONLY  HAVE WE NOT HAD A SINGLE RAIN-OUT DAY, WE'VE BARELY HAD ANY  DEW OR FOG. WE'RE GOING ON THREE MONTHS WITH LESS THAN A HALF- INCH OF RAIN THROUGHOUT. CREEKS ARE DRY, AND WELLS ARE FAILING.  THE GROUND FEELS LIKE CONCRETE.  NOW ADD IN RECORD WARMTH DURING SEPTEMBER, CROP MOISTURE  LEVELS BELOW ANYTHING I'VE SEEN THAT WASN'T A DRYER FAILURE, AND  NO DAYS OFF TO GET TO MY RAINY-DAY JOBS DONE AND 2017 IS LOOKING  LIKE ONE FOR THE BOOKS. I'M NOT EVEN SURE THE THRILL OF FINISHING  EARLY WILL BE THAT EXCITING. THIS I STARTING TO SMELL LIKE A DROUGHT.  YOU CAN SEE THE TAN ON THE DROUGHT MAP CREEPING ACROSS MY  PART OF THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE, WE'RE ALL KEENLY AWARE OF ANY  SMOKE ON THE HORIZON. MORE THAN A FEW OF US HAVE TILLAGE  IMPLEMENTS READY TO BATTLE A FIELD FIRE.  SECRETLY, A FEW OF US REMEMBER WITH NOSTALGIA NOW THOSE FEW  HURRICANES THAT WANDERED FAR ENOUGH INLAND TO DUMP INCHES ON  OUR FARM DURING THE FALL. BUT AS BAD AS WE NEED MOISTURE, I SURE  WOULDN'T WANT THOSE OTHERS IN THE PATH TO EXPERIENCE ANY MORE  MISERY. IT WOULD BE NICE TO HAVE A GUILT-FREE DAY OFF TO CATCH UP  THE BOOKS AND REPAIR TEMPORARY PATCHES, BUT I THINK I'M GOING TO  HOPE FOR A WARM WET WINTER JUST IN CASE.  THANKS, JOHN.

TEASE
STILL TO COME, WHY IS A NATIONAL COUNTRY MUSIC  STAR TAKING TO THE STAGE TO PROMOTE FARMERS?  WE SIT DOWN WITH LUKE BRYAN NEXT. 

HEADLINES
WELCOME BACK TO THIS SPECIAL EDITION OF U-S FARM  REPORT. IF YOU'RE JUST NOW JOINING US, WE PARTED  WAYS WITH OUR STUDIO FOR HTE WEEK, INSTEAD,  BRINGING YOU THE SHOW FROM THE LUKE BRYAN FARM  TOUR... AND WE HAVE A JAM PACKED 30 MINUTES.  TOASTING TO THE AMERICAN FARMER. WHY LUKE  BRYAN IS USING A NATIONAL STAGE TO LIFT UP  FARMERS WHILE GIVING BACK WITH THE HELP OF ONE  AG COMPANY.  FARMERS HAVE STAGNANT VIEWS ON THE FARM  ECONOMY. BUT LONG-TERM OUTLOOKS ARE STARTING  TO WANE.  AND DIGGING INTO NO-TILL... JOHN PHIPPS KICKS OFF A  TILLAGE SERIES IN CUSTOMER SUPPORT. 

PURDUE AG BAROMETER
NOW FOR THE HEADLINES...AS FARMERS RUSH TO THE  FINISH LINE WITH THE 2017 CROP, SENTIMENTS ABOUT  THE AG ECONOMY APPEAR TO BE HOLDING STEADY.  HOWEVER THE LATEST AG ECONOMY BAROMETER  FROM PURDUE AND THE CME RAISING QUESTIONS  ABOUT HOW CONFIDENT THEY ARE IN THE FUTURE  OUTLOOKS.  THE SEPTEMBER BAROMETER POSTING A 132. THAT'S  THE SAME AS AUGUST.  AND IT FALLS WITHIN THE RANGE OF THE BAROMETER  OVER THE PAST 6 MONTHS... STAYING BETWEEN 130  AND 139.  BUT, THE 132 MARK IS STILL WELL BELOW THE PEAK OF  153 FROM LAST JANUARY.   BUT THE INTERESTING THING WHEN YOU LOOK AT IT, EVEN THOUGH WE  HAD NO CHANGE IN THE BAROMETER ITSELF. YOU DID SEE SOME  CHANGES IN THE UNDERLYING SUB-INDECIES.  THE INDEX OF CURRENT  CONDITIONS AND THE INDEX OF FUTURE EXPECTATIONS. IN PARTICULAR IT  WAS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT WE'VE SEEN A FAIRLY SHARP DROP OFF IN  THE INDEX OF FUTURE EXPECTATIONS MEANING PRODUCERS HAVE LOST  SOME CONFIDENCE THAT THEY HAD ON WHERE THE AG ECONOMY WAS  HEADED.

USDA CONFIRMATIONS
IN WASHINGTON, THE SENATE CONFIRMING TWO KEY USDA NOMINATIONS THIS WEEK.. POSTS LEFT UNFILLED  FOR 9 MONTHS.   STEPHEN CENSKY CONFIMRED AS AS DEPUTY  SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE, AND TED MCKINNEY AS  UNDERSECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE FOR TRADE AND  FOREIGN AGRICULTURAL AFFAIRS.. THE ACTION FOLLOWED UNANIMOUS APPROVAL A DAY  EARLIER BY THE SENATE AGRICULTURE COMMITTEE. PERDUE HAS BEEN THE LONE CONFIRMED USDA  APPOINTED OFFICIAL SINCE HIS CONFIRMATION VOTE  BACK IN THE SPRING.  <. IT'S NOT THAT THEY HAVEN'T BEEN WORKING BEHIDN THE SCENES. NOT  BEING FORCED OR WITH THE DAY TO DAY MEETING, THEY'VE BEEN ABLE  PROBABLY TO FOCUS ON THE PRIORTY ITEMS THAT THEY'RE GOING TO DEAL  WITH SO THEY CAN HIT HTE GROUND MORE THAN RUNNING. SO THERE'S  THE SILVER LINING FOR YOU>

IOWA LAND VALUES
IOWA LAND VALUES SEEING LIFE, GAINING FOR THE  FIRST TIME IN THREE YEARS.   OUR PARTNERS AT LANDOWNER NEWSETTER  REPORTING IOWA FARMLAND VALUES ROSE 2 PERCENT  FROM 6 MONTHS AGO.  THOSE VALUES LARGELY DEPENDENT UPTON  MOISTURE.  A SEMIANNUAL SURVEY FROM IOWA CHAPTER OF THE  REALTORS LAND INSTITUTE REVEALING LAND VALUES  SAW STRONGER GAINS IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN  AREAS ABOVE I-80, MAINLY DUE TO SUMMER RAINS.  BUT WHERE DRY WEATHER SET IN ACORSS THE  WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE, LAND VALUES SAW  SMALLER GAINS. 

NUT-BASED MILK DEBATE
 THE FIGHT OVER WHETHER NUT BASED MILK IS REALLY  MILK CONTINUES.  THE NATIONAL MILK PRODUCERS FEDERATION URGING  FEDERAL FOOD REGULATORS TO LOOK INTO BLUE  MAGIC CASHEW MILK, SENDING A LETTER TO BOTH FDA  AND THE CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE.  N-M-P-F CLAIMING THE PRODUCT IS AN IMITATION DAIRY  DRINK USING THE WORD MILK, BUT IT'S A PLANT BASED  PRODUCT MADE FROM NUTS AND WATER. THE FEDERATION SAYS THAT VIOLATES CURRENT  GOVERNMENT STANDARDS THAT DEFINES MILK AS A  PRODUCT FROM A DAIRY ANIMAL.  THIS IS THE SECOND TIME N-M-P-F RAISED ITS CONCERNS OVER BLUE MAGIC CASHEW MILK. 

WEATHER
THAT'S IT FOR NEWS...METEOROLOGIST MIKE  HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH THE NATIONAL  FORECAST. MIKE, BALMY WEATHER TO FINISH OUT  SEPTEMBER AND START OCTOBER. HOW LONG CAN IT  LAST?  WELL TYNE, IT LOOKS LIKE IN GENERAL IT LASTS FOR ANOTHER WEEK.  THERE WILL BE PLACES IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY THAT  DOES GET COLD FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. THERE IS OUR JETSTREAM  SHOWING A SHOT OF CHILLIER AIR INTO THE WEST AGAIN BUT THIS RIDGE  HOLDS IN THE SOUTHEAST SO ANY COOL AIR YOU GET IN THE NORTHERN TIER  OF STATES AND THE GREAT LAKES IN THE NORTHEAST DOESN'T LAST LONG.  YOU CAN SEE LITTLE TROUGHS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST. NO MAJOR  TROUGHS COMING IN WHICH MEANS MOST OF THE LOWER 48 IS FAIRLY DRY  THIS WEEK OVERALL. AND THEN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND A  LITTLE BIT OF COOL DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST BUT THAT'S ABOUT IT. THAT'S A  WARM WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SO 30 DAY  OUTLOOK FOR TEMPTERS I'M GOING ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EASTERN HALF  OF THE COUNTRY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN  ROCKIES. PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 30 DAYS AND GOING ABOVE  NORMAL FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES BELOW NORMAL  THEN FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS UP THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO  VALLEY INTO MOST OF THE NORTHEAST. TYNE.  THANKS, MIKE. 

FARM JOURNAL REPORT
AFTER THE TRAGEDY IN LAS VEGAS, ACTS OF KINDNESS  CAN HELP HEAL A NATION HURTING.  THAT'S WHAT'S TAKING PLACE ACROSS FARM FIELDS  ACROSS THE COUNTRY AS EACH YEAR, ONE NASHVILLE  STAR GETS BACK TO HIS RURAL ROOTS, AND GIVES  BACK TO FARMERS WITH THE HELP OF BAYER, LUKE  BRYAN CELEBRATES FARMERS ON A NATIONAL STAGE  WITH THE LUKE BRYAN FARM TOUR. THIS YEAR, THE  FARM TOUR TOASTING TO THE HARDWORKING HANDS  HELPPING PRODUCE A BOUNTIFUL CROP FOR US ALL TO  ENJOY, BUT USING SOCIAL MEDIA TO HELP THOSE IN  NEED... HERE'S TO THE FARMER...  COUNTRY MUSIC SUPERSTAR LUKE BRYAN BLEW ONTO  THE MUSIC SCENE MORE THAN A DECADE AGO... BUT  EXPLODED IN POPULARITY IN 2011 WHEN HE RELEASED  HIS HIT SONG, COUNTRY GIRL SHAKE IT FOR ME.  COUNTRY GIRL SHAKE IT FOR ME GIRL, SHAKE IT FOR  ME> 6 YEARS LATER, HE'S STILL WINNING OVER FANS  HEARTS.  <WHY ARE YOU OUT THERE? BECAUSE I LVOE LUKE BRYAN.AND MY  BIRTHDAYS TOMORORW SO OI REALLUY WANT TO SEE HIM> <WHAT'S UP FARM TOUR...> EACH FALL, FANS FLOOD FARM FIELDS ACROSS THE  MIDWEST, TO GET A GLIMPSE OF LUKE BRYAN IN ACTION <LETS HERE IT FOR LUKE?!> FORT WAYNE INDIAN WAS JUST  ONE OF SIX STOPS ON  TEH ANNUAL LUKE BRYAN FARM TOUR.. USING A  NATIONAL STATE TO TOAST TO FARMERS.  <I GRE UP TAKING SOIL SAMPES WITH MY DAD, SCOUTING COTTON IN THE  SUMMERS> WITH FARMING IN HIS BLOOD, BRYAN CAME UP WITH  THE IDEA FOR THE FARM TOUR NEARLY 10 YEARS AGO.  <IT STARTED SMALL, I THINK OUR FIRST FARM TOUR SHOW HAD ABOUT 1800  2000 PEOPLE THERE>' TODAY, HIS FARM TOUR DRAWS CLOSER TO 20  THOUSAND PER SHOW.  <RIGHT HERE THIS IS MY KIND OF NIGHT FORT WAYNE INDIANA> BRYAN SAYS WHILE HE HELPS DRAW IN A CROWD, THE  MEANING OF HTE FARM TOUR DIGS MUCH DEEPER THAN  A CONCERT.  <THROUGH THE YEAR,S THROUGH OUR PARTNERSHIP WITH BAYER, WE'VE  GOTTEN REALLY CRAFTY IN GOING FROM SCHOLARSHIPS, TO SALUTING THE  AMERICAN FARMER, TO DONATING MEALS TO HUNGRY FAMILIES> <I THINK OUR FARMERS AND OUR RANCHERS IN THIS COUNTRY ARE  UNDERAPPRECIATED. I DON'T THINK A LOT OF CONSUMERS UNDERSTAND  HOW THAT REALLY REALLY YUMMY CHICKEN AND STEAK AND CORN AND  BEANS, THEY DON'T KNOW HOW IT GETS TO THEIR TABLE. THIS IS ONE  OPPORTUNITY WITH THE HERES TO THE FARMER CAMPAIGN TO HELP CONSUMERS APPRECIATE THE FARMERS THAT PUT THAT FOOD ON THEIR  TABLE> <TALK ABOUT AN UPHILL BATTLE... 2000 ACRES OF BEANS AND CATTLE> IT'S RECOGNIZING THE CHALLENGES OF FARMING THAT  BRYAN IS HIGHLIGHTING ON A NTIONATL STAGE.  <HERE'S TO THE FARMER THAT PLANTS THE FIELDS INT EH SPRING. > BUILDING OFF HIS HERE'S THE FARMER SINGLE  RELEASED IN 2016.  BRYAN AND BAYER ARE USING THE POWER OF SOCIAL  MEDIA TO GIVE BACK.  <WE'RE PARTNERING WITH FEEDING AMERICA AND EVERYTIME  SOMEBODY USING THE HASTAGH WE DONATE A MEAL,LAST YEAR WE  REACHED HALF A MILLION MEALS WITH FEEDING AMERICA. AND THIS YEAR  WE'RE UPPING THE GOAL AND GOING FOR A MILLION MEALS> A GOAL BAYER HELPS TO REACH THIS YEAR WITH THE  HELP OF ONE OF COUNTRY MUSIC'S BIGGEST STARS.  <IT'S BEEN AN AMAZING RIDE AND I THINK IT'S MORPHED INTO A SPECIAL  TRIBUTE TO OUR FARMERS> AND AS THE SUN SETS ON ANOTHER FARM TOUR, IT'S  LUKE PASSION FOR PEOPLE, BRINGING THE COUNTRY  MUSIC COMMUNITY TOGETHER, TO TOAST THE HANDS  THAT PROVIDE THE MOST...  <HERE'S TO THE FARMER..> OUR THANKS TO LUKE AND THE FOLKS AT BAYER FOR  ALLOWING US TO TAG ALONG. 

TEASE
AND DON'T FORGET, SHARE THE HASTAG  HERESTOTHEFARMER TO SHOW YOUR GRATITUDE FOR AMERICA'S HARDWORKING FARMERS. IN RETURN,  BAYER WILL DONATE A MEAL TO SOMEONE IN NEED.  UP NEXT, JOHN PHIPPS. 

CUSTOMER SUPPORT
WE TALKED TILLAGE TRENDS JUST A COUPLE WEEKS  AGO ON THE SHOW, AS SOME FARMERS ARE NOW  GOING BACK TO THE BASICS, USING IT AS A WEED  MANAGEMENT TOOL.  BUT JOHN PHIPPS IS NARROWING IN ON NO TILL FOR A  MULTI WEEK AG SPLAINER.  THIS WEEK WE HAVE A SEEMINGLY SIMPLE QUESTION FROM CAROLE  PEPLER WHO LIVES IN TRENTON, MAINE: "SEVERAL MONTHS AGO YOU SAID YOU WOULD TALK ABOUT NO TILL ON A FUTURE SHOW. I SURELY WOULD LIKE TO HEAR YOUR VIEWPOINT.  THIS  WEEK WE NOTICED A REFERENCE TO MINIMAL TILL ON A FOUR-YEAR  ROTATION.  HOW DOES THAT WORK?" THANK YOU FOR REMINDING ME CAROLE, AND SEND ME AN ADDRESS.  I'LL JUST OUTLINE THE BASIC PRINCIPLES OF NO-TILL FARMING AND SOME OF  THE UPSIDE. NO-TILL IS PRETTY MUCH WHAT THE NAME IMPLIES - PLANTING CROPS  WITHOUT ANY MECHANICAL TILLAGE OF THE GROUND BEFOREHAND, SUCH  AS PLOWING, DISKING, OR CULTIVATING. THIS IDEA BECAME POPULAR IN  THE 1980S, AND FOR A WHILE IT LOOKED LIKE WE WOULD ALL SWITCH TO NO- TILL SYSTEMS. WHILE WE DON'T HAVE REALLY GOOD DATA ON TOTAL ACRES  NOW USING NO-TILL THE HIGHEST I HAVE SEEN IS ABOUT 17%, AND  THAT'S ONLY USING IT EVERY OTHER YEAR, WHICH DOES NOT MATCH MY  IDEA OF TRUE NO-TILL FARMING. THIS WEEK I'LL TALK ABOUT THE BENEFITS, AND NEXT WEEK THE  DRAWBACKS AND CONTROVERSIES. HERE ARE THE ADVANTAGES OF NO-TILL.

 

FIRST, NO-TILL CAN GREATLY REDUCE WIND AND WATER EROSION ON  GROUND THAT IS AT RISK, SUCH AS SLOPES OR CERTAIN SOIL TYPES. IN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WITH LOWER RAINFALL, NO-TILL CAN CAPTURE AND  PRESERVE MORE OF THAT WATER. NO-TILL IS WHY THERE ARE CORN AND  BEANS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADA. NO-TILL PROMOTES BETTER SOIL STRUCTURE WITH LESS COMPACTION AND  MORE AERATION. IN THEORY, NO-TILL FARMING USES A LOT LESS MACHINERY, WHICH MEANS  LESS FUEL AND LABOR AS WELL. AROUND HERE WE HAVE DEDICATED NO-TILLERS WHOSE YIELDS ARE AS  GOOD AS ANYONE. BECAUSE THERE IS LESS SOIL MOVEMENT, NO-TILL CAN LOWER CARBON  EMISSIONS. IF YOU DON'T BELIEVE IN CLIMATE CHANGE THIS DOESN'T  MATTER, OF COURSE. FINALLY, NO-TILL PROVIDES HABITAT, ESPECIALLY IN WINTER FOR ALL KINDS  OF ANIMAL LIFE, AIDING BIODIVERSITY. AFTER ALL THIS YOU MIGHT WONDER WHY ANY OF US ARE NOT USING NO- TILL. I'LL ANSWER THAT NEXT WEEK.  THANKS, JOHN. IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS  BEFORE NEXT WEEK, EMAIL JOHN AT MAILBAG AT U-S  FARM REPORT DOT COM. WHEN WE COME BACK, GOING BACK TO THE DAYS WHEN YOU COULD ONLY TRAVEL BY WATER, THAT'S THIS WEEK'S AMERICAN COUNTRYSIDE. 

AMERICAN COUNTRYSIDE
WELCOME BACK. EARLIER IN THE SHOW WE TOLD YOU  ABOUT CONJESTION ON THE NATION'S WATERWAYS,  IMPACTING BARGES TRYING TO MOVE GRAIN DOWN THE  NATION'S MAIN SHIPPING VEINS.  BUT THERE ONCE WAS A TIME WHERE TRAVELING BY  WATER WAS THE ONLY WAY. HERE'S ANDREW MCCREA.  BEFORE HIGHWAYS CRISSCROSSED THE NATION, IT WAS WATER THAT OFTEN  ALLOWED THE BEST AND QUICKEST WAY TO MOVE PEOPLE AND FREIGHT  LONG DISTANCES.  IN THE 1830S THE STATE OF INDIANA BEGAN AN  AMBITIOUS PROJECT TO CREATE ONE SUCH HIGHWAY. (THE CANAL WAS TO HELP BUILD COMMERCE.  YOU WERE GOING FROM  THE RIVER, THE OHIO RIVER, BACK UP TO EAST CENTRAL INDIANA  EVENTUALLY THEY HOPED TO INTERCONNECT EVERYWHERE WITH THE CANAL  SYSTEM ITSELF  TODAY JAY DISHMAN HELPS OVERSEES THE HISTORIC WATERWAY THAT REMAINS FROM NEARLY TWO CENTURIES AGO.  THE WHITEWATER CANAL  CONNECTED CAMBRIDGE CITY, WHICH WAS ON THE NATIONAL ROAD, TO  LAWRENCEBURG ON THE OHIO RIVER. (YOU WERE MOVING PEOPLE BUT YOU WERE TRYING TO GET COMMERCE  TO GO ALL THE WAY THROUGH.  THE PRODUCTS HERE MAINLY AT THE  BEGINING WERE LUMBER AND STONE.  A LOT OF PEOPLE WILL THINK ITS  CROPS AND STUFF LIKE THAT.  NO NOT YET. IT WAS STILL A LITTLE BIT EARLY  THE ENTIRE CANAL WAS FULLY OPERATIONAL IN THE EARLY 1850S.  BUT BY  THE END OF THAT SAME DECADE IT WAS ALREADY ON ITS DEMISE AS A  TRANSPORTATION ROUTE.  RAILROADS TOOK OVER THE TOW PATHS ONCE  USED BY HORSES TO PULL THE CANAL BOATS.  HOWEVER THE WATER  FLOWING DOWN THE CANAL REMAINED A VERY IMPORTANT SOURCE OF  POWER.   (THE GRIST MILLS AND ALL THE DIFFERENT MILLS, THEY WERE THERE  ORIGINALLY, BECAUSE WATER POWER, THAT WAS A NICE WAY TO BUILD  THINGSYOU CAN COME HERE AND SEE THE WORKING GRIST MILL THAT DATES TO  THE TURN OF THE LAST CENTURY. IT CONTINUES TO GRIND GRAIN TO SHOW  THE IMPORTANT BUSINESSES THAT SPRANG UP ALONG THE ROUTE.  THE  WATERWHEEL NEXT TO THE WHITEWATER CANAL PROVIDED THE POWER.   PLUS, YOU'LL STILL FIND BOATS THAT PLY A SHORT SECTION OF THE  WATERWAY FOR TOURISTS.  BUT THERE'S A TRULY UNIQUE PART OF THIS SITE  THAT MAY E UNDERAPPRECIATED UNLESS YOU KNOW THE FULL STORY.     (IT IS ESSENTIALLY A COVERED BRIDGE.  AH, IT IS A COVERED BRIDGE BUT  INSTEAD OF HAVING A ROADBED AND CARRYING FOOT TRAFFIC AND  VEHICLES AND LIVESTOCK ANIMALS, IT ACTUALLY CARRIES A MANMADE  BODY OF WATER, THE WHITEWATER CANAL  BECAUSE THE 76 MILE LONG WHITEWATER CANAL DROPS ALMOST 500  FEET FROM BEGINNING TO END, IT REQUIRED 75 LOCKS AND SEVERAL  DAMS AND THE UNIQUE COVERED CANAL BRIDGE THAT SPANS THE DUCK  CREEK STREAM BED.  ORIGINALLY BUILT IN 1846, THE WATER WAS  RECENTLY REMOVED FOR REPAIRS THAT WILL ALLOW THE BOATS TO CROSS IT  ONCE AGAIN NEXT YEAR.  WHEN VISITORS CONSIDER THE CANAL, GRIST  MILL, COVERED AQUEDUCT AND MORE, THEY ARE IMPRESSED WITH THE  PIONEERING GOALS OF THE EARLY RESIDENTS OF THIS STATE.   (THE FACT THAT THE STATE OF INDIANA SO EARLY IN ITS HISTORY WAS  ENGAGED IN THAT KIND OF DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY TO PRODUCE  COMMERCE AND ATTRACT PEOPLE TO LIVE IN THE STATE I THINK IS PRETTY  REMARKABLE  THE WHITEWATER CANAL HAS BEEN IN EXISTENCE FOR OVER 150 YEARS  AND WHILE THE PURPOSES HAVE CHANGED OVER THAT TIME IT'S STILL A  UNIQUE PIECE OF HISTORY THAT BRINGS PEOPLE HERE TODAY.  TRAVELING  THE COUNTRYSIDE…IN METAMORA, INDIANA, I'M ANDREW MCCREA.   THANKS, ANDREW. YOU CAN HEAR MORE OF ANDREW'S  TRAVELS ONLINE AT AMERICAN COUNTRYSIDE DOT  COM, OR CHECK OUT THE FARM JOURNAL ON AIR APP.  WHEN WE COME BACK, MACHINERY PETE HAS A  FARMALL 350 THAT HE CALLS A BEAUTY. THAT'S AFTER  THE BREAK.

TRACTOR TALES
WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES FOLKS! THIS WEEK WE'RE IN NORTH  CENTRAL ILLINOIS FOR A BEAUTIFULLY RESTORED FARMALL 350.  BOUGHT  NEW, THIS '57 CLASSIC DID EVERYTHING ON THE FARM FOR GAIL GOODELL.   TODAY THIS TRACTOR SHOWS OFF ITS COLORS ON THE PARADE CIRCUIT. THIS PARTICULAR TRACTOR WAS BOUGHT NEW ON THE FARM BY MY FATHER  IN LAW. WHEN I STARTED FARMING HERE IN 64 IT WAS MY BIG TRACTOR  THAT ALONGSIDE MY ALLIS CHALMERS TRACTOR. DID OUR DISCING, OUR  MOWBOARD PLOWING, HAY WORK GRINDING FEED FOR CATTLE HAULING  MANURE. IT WAS A BUSY BUSY TRACTOR HAD THE CULTIVATOR ON DURING  THE DAY AND NIGHT WE WOULD TAKE THE CULTIVATOR OFF AND GRIND  MORE FEED, FEED THE LIVESTOCK AND THEN WE WOULD LEAVE THE  CULTIVATOR OFF ALL NIGHT AND THEN NEXT MORNING DO CHORES AND PUT  THE CULTIVATOR BACK ON OR MAYBE WOULD HAVE TO QUIT RAKE HAY FOR  A WHILE. AND THEN WHEN THE HAY GOT DRY I WOULD BALE IT PUT THE  CULTIVATOR ON AND OFF THIS THING A LOT DURING THE SUMMERTIME. WE  CULTIVATED A LOT OF CROPS AT THAT POINT. IT'S BEEN IN USE TILL WE QUIT  HAVING CATTLE ABOUT FIVE YEARS AGO AND AT THAT POINT WE GOT IT IN  THE SHOP AND TOOK ALL THE BOLTS OUT AND WE'VE OVERHAULED IT.  MOTOR HAD BEEN OVERHAULED AT LEAST THREE TIMES AND NUMEROUS  TORQUE AMPLIFIERS PUT IN IT. WE USED IT ON TRACTOR RIDES A LOT.  THAT'S JUST NICE DARN FARMALL TRACTOR CLUTCH PEDAL GOT VERY VERY  VERY SLOPPY. DIAMONDS ARE WORE OFF SO WHEN WE GOT READY TO OVERHAUL IT THEY  SAID WELL WE'LL GET YOU A NEW CLUTCH PEDAL NOW THAT I WANT THAT  CLUTCH PEDAL WILL PUT BUSHING IT MORE SHIM IT UP AND MAKE IT TIGHT  BECAUSE I KNOW HOW THOSE MOST OF THOSE DIAMONDS GOT WORE OFF  OF THAT AND I HAVE NO IDEA HOW MANY BOOTS AND RUBBER SHOES IF  THAT WORE OUT BUT IT WAS USED A LOT.

COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE
TODAY'S COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE GOES TO A  CHURCH ABOUT 3 HOURS SOUTHWEST OF HERE IN WAYNETOWN, INDIANA. THE CHRISTIAN UNION CHURCH  CELEBRATED THEIR 150TH ANNIVERSARY IN LATE  SEPTEMBER. CONGRATULATIONS ON A SUCH A MAJOR  MILESTONE.  AS ALWAYS WE WANT TO LEARN ABOUT YOUR HOME  CHURCH AS WELL... SALUTES CAN BE SENT TO THE  ADDRESS ON THE SCREEN.  STAY WITH US - FROM THE FARM PHOTOS FROM THE LUKE BRYAN CONCERT NEXT.

FROM THE FARM
WELCOME BACK. WE'LL WE'RE ON STAGE TO WRAP THINGS UP. WISCONSIN IS BEAUTIFUL YEAR ROUND, BUT THERE'S  NOTHING LIKE A WISCONSIN FALL, ESPEICALLY DURING  CRANBERRY HARVEST. LOOK AT THIS BLONDE BEAUTY  HELPING OUT IN THE BOGS THIS WEEK. LOOK AT THAT  SEA OF RED. SO NEAT FOR THIS MIDWESTERN KID.  AND SUGAR BEET HARVEST IS CHUGGING ALONG IN  NORTH DAKOTA.  TOM KEN-NELLY SAYS IT'S A VERY NICE CROP THIS YEAR  CONSIDERING HOW WET IT WAS IN 2016, FOLLOWED BY THE DROUGHT IN 2017. HE SAYS HE'S  SHOCKED BY HOW GOOD YIELDS ARE...  NOW HE JUST WISHES PRICES WERE A LITTLE BETTER.  STAYING IN NORTH DAKOTA, CONGRATULATIONS TO  OUR OCTOBER FACEBOOK COVER PHOTO WINNER, AC  SCHUMACHER. IT'S A FAMILY AFFAIR. JODY SHUMACHER  TOOK THE PICTURE WHILE HER TWIN SISTER WAS  DRIVING THE GRAIN CART...AND THAT'S HER MOM  COREEN DRIVING THE COMBINE. HOW COOL  AGAIN, A BIG THANKS TO LUKE BRYAN'S TEAM AND THE  FOLKS AT BAYER FOR HAVING US OUT THIS WEEK. 

CLOSE
FROM ALL OF US AT U.S. FARM REPORT, I'M TYNE  MORGAN. THANK YOU FOR WATCHING U-S FARM  REPORT.  BE SURE TO JOIN USAGAIN NEXT WEEK, AS WE  WORK TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION. HAVE A GREAT  WEEKEND, EVERYONE.. AND A SAFE HARVEST SEASON.  

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