USFR Weekly Recap - September 29-30, 2018

September 29, 2018 03:30 AM
 

TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
SEPTEMBER 29-30, 2018

HEADLINES

WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M TYNE MORGAN, AND HERE'S WHAT'S IN STORE OVER THE NEXT 60  MINUTES. THE U-S AND JAPAN JOINING IN ON BILATERAL TALKS.  <, AS YOU KNOW, I MET WITH MINISTER ABE AND THEY  HAVNE'T BEEN FAIR ON TRADE> BUT IT MAY NOT BE A BOON FOR U-S AG GOODS. AS NAFTA MOVES FORWARD WITHOUT CANADA, WHAT'S  THE LIKLIHOOD CANADA WILL STILL REENTER THE  NEGOTATING GAME?  IN OUR FARM JOURNAL REPORT, BETTER YIELDS BUT  FADING PRICES IS STILL SQUEEZING PROFITS ON THE FARM.  <I WOULD ANTICIPATE ON THE CASH GRAINS SIDE, DELINQUENCIES MAY  NOT START SHOWIGN ITS HEAD UNTIL FEBRUARY, MARCH OF NEXT YEAR> WE'LL HELP YOU PREPARE FOR THOSE TOUGH  CONVERSATIONS WITH BANKERS THIS FALL.  AND IN JOHN'S WORLD <THE PHIPPSOMATIC 3000>

NEWS
NOW FOR THE NEWS, AS WADING THROUGH THE COMPLICATED TRADE BATTLE WITH CHINA BECOMES  EVEN MORE INTENSE, THE TRUMP ADMINSTRATION  STRIKING CHORDS OF HOPE FOR A DIFFERENT TRADE  DEAL.  U-S TRADE REPRESETNATIVE ROBERT LIGHTHIZER  NOTIFYING CONGRESS THAT PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP AND JAPAN PRIMI MINISTER ABE ARE AGREEING  TO BEGIN NEGOTIATIONS FOR A U.S.- JAPAN TRADE  AGREEMENT.  LOOMING OVER NEGOTIATIONS ARE TRUMP'S THREATS  TO SLAP AUTO TARIFFS ON JAPAN. HOWEVER, THE  TRUMP ADMINSTARTION SAYING THOSE TARIFFS ARE  OFF THE TABLE AS LONG AS A TRADE DEAL IS IN THE  WORKS.  < THEY WERE NOT WILLING FOR YEARS TO TALK TRADE AND NOW THEY'RE  WILLING TO TALK TRADAND I'M SURE WE'LL MAKE A VERY GOOD DEAL> FRESH ON THE MINDS OF JAPAN IS TRUMP'S DECISION  TO KILL THE UNITED STATES' INVOLVEMENT IN THE  TRANS PACFICI PARTNERSHIP- A KEY TRADE PACT WITH JAPAN- LAST YEAR. JAPAN MAKING IT CLEAR THAT WHEN  IT COMES TO AGRICULTURE, WHAT WAS AGREED UPON  WITH T-P-P WILL BE THE BASELINE.  DURING THAT 80 MINUTE PRESS CONCERENCE, THE  PRESIDENT GOING ON TO SAY THAT A DEAL WITH  MEXICO IS NEARLY COMPLETE... AND IT'S WAIT AND SEE  WITH CANADA. UNDER U-S TRADE LAW, THE U-S HAS TO PPST THE TEXT  OF A TRADE PACT 60 DAYS BEFORE IT'S SIGNED.  THE U-S SAYING BY RELEASING THE LANGUAGE NOW,  THE TRADE PACT HAS ENOUGH TIME TO ENSURE THE  CURRENT MEXICAN PRESIDENT CAN SIGN IT BEFORE  LEAVIGN OFFICE DECEMBER FIRST.  WELL JOINING ME NOW IS SEAN HAITI OF REAL AGOT RADIO OUT OF CANADA. SHAWN FROM CANADA'S PERSPECTIVE IS IT REALLY DAIRY THAT'S THE MOST CONTENTIOUS ISSUE AND THE MAIN HURDLE OR IS IT STILL AND SUNSET CLAUSE AND THOSE OTHER FACTORS CAUSING AN ISSUE WHEN IT COMES TO THESE NEGOTIATIONS. DAIRY'S REALLY THE CONTENTIOUS EGG ISSUE AT HAND BUT THERE'S A LOT OF OTHER STUFF. CHAPTER 19 DISPUTE RESOLUTION. THE FUTURE OF SECTION 232 STEEL TARIFFS. THERE'S A LOT OF STUFF AT HAND HERE TIME THAT NEEDS TO BE CLEARED UP BEFORE WE CAN MOVE ON NOW TO2.0 YEAH WE KNOW THAT OUR ELECTIONS HERE IN THE US ARE KIND OF STALLING THINGS FROM FROM OUR STANDPOINT. I KNOW YOU HAVE SOME VERY IMPORTANT ELECTIONS COMING UP IN OCTOBER. COULD WE SEE CANADA INTERNAT TO AFTER THOSE ELECTIONS. WELL I THINK KEN IS GOING TO WANT TO HAVE IT RECTIFIED BEFORE THEN BECAUSE I DON'T SEE THE CANADIAN GOVERNMENT WANTING TO GO INTO A FEDERAL ELECTION WITH NAFTA'S STILL HANGING IN THERE ESPECIALLY WITH THE AUTO SECTOR AND HOW IMPORTANT IT IS THE CANADIAN ECONOMY. ALL RIGHT THANKS SHAUN. MEANWHILE THE PRESIDENT NOTCHED  A TRADE VICTORY ON MONDAY AS THE U-S AND SOUTH KOREA SIGNED A RE-NEGOTIATED FREE TRADE AGREEMENT. AND IT COULD MEAN MORE EXPORTS OF U- S AG PRODUCTS. PRESIDENT TRUMP SAYS THE NEW AGREEMENT MAKES SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS TO REDUCE THE TRADE  DEFICIT BETWEEN THE COUNTRIES AND CREATE NEW  OPPORTUNITIES TO EXPORT AMERICAN PRODUCTS TO  SOUTH KOREA.  . HE SAYS U-S AUTOS, PHARMACEUTICALS AND  AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS WILL GAIN BETTER ACCESS  TO KOREN MARKETS. THE U-S MEAT EXPORT FEDERATION SAYS UNDER THE  NEW DEAL, MOST U-S PORK PRODUCTS WILL ENTER KOREA DUTY-FREE. AND THE DUTY-RATE FOR BEEF HAS BEEN REDUCED  FROM 40-PERCENT TO 21 PERCENT. THE BEEF TARIFF  WILL EVENTUALLY BE ELIMINATED. .U-S-MEF SAYS U-S RED MEAT EXPORTS TO KOREA SET A RECORD LAST YEAR OF ONE-POINT-SEVEN-BILLION  DOLLARS, UP 19 PERCENT YEAR-OVER-YEAR. WELL, TRUMPING ANY POSITIVE REVELATIONS WITH  OTHER TRADE DEALS IS THE GROWING TRADE  TENSIONS WITH CHINA. THAT'S AS TRUMP THIS WEEK  RELEASING A BOMBSHELL CLAIM-- THAT CHINA IS  MEDDLIGN IN THE U-S ELECTIONS. <TRUMP: "WE HAVE EVIDENCE. WE HAVE EVIDENCE. IT WILL COME  OUT. I CAN'T TELL YOU NOW. BUT IT CAME IT DIDN'T COME OUT OF  NOWHERE THAT I CAN TELL YOU. NOW IF YOU THEY ACTUALLY ADMITTED THAT THEY'RE GOING AFTER FARMERS.. "> U-S SOYBEANS SHIPPED TO CHINA HAVE BEEN CUT OFF, BUT NOW  CHINESE SOYBEAN BUYERS MAY BE  CIRCUMVENTING SOYBEAN TARIFFS THROUGH A THIRD  PARTY - ARGENTINA. ACCORDING TO PUBLISHED REPORTS, ARGENTINA IS  BUYING U-S SOYBEANS FOR THEIR DOMESTIC MARKET  AND THEN EXPORTING ITS OWN SOYBEANS TO CHINA. <THE ISSUE HERE IS THAT ARGENTINA DOESN'T HAVE THE BEANS. THEY  HAD A SHORT CROP THIS YEAR. THERE ARE BIG CRUSHERS. THEY  TYPICALLY DON'T EXPORT BEANS. THIS TIME OF YEAR IT LOOKS AS IF THEY'RE GOING TO GET THE BEAN FROM THE UNITED STATES. THEY'VE  BOOKED 850000 METRIC TONS OF BEANS SINCE SEPTEMBER 1ST. 0> VACLAVIK SAYS ARGENTINA DIDN'T SELL ANY BEANS TO  CHINA FROM SEPTEMBER TO FEBRUARY LAST YEAR.  BUT THIS YEAR, IT LOOKS TO SHIP ONE-POINT-EIGHT  MILLION METRIC TONS DURING THAT SAME PERIOD. VACLAVIK SAYS EVEN IF THE U-S BEANS ARE NOT SOLD  DIRECTLY TO CHINA, THE EXPORT MARKET IS STILL  HELPING PRICES.IN THE MIDST OF THE HEARINGS AND CHAOS  SURROUND SUPREME COURT JUSTICE NOMINEE BRETT  KAVANAUGH THIS WEEK, CONGRESSIONAL AG LEADERS MISSING A KEY DEADLINE ON THE FARM BILL, BUT  WASHINGTON INSIDERS SAY THERE'S STILL A CHANCE  TO GET A FARM BILL PASSED THIS YEAR.  SENATE AGRICULTURE COMMITTEE CHAIRMAN PAT ROBERTS CONCEDED THIS WEEK A FARM BILL BY THE  SEPTEMBER 30TH DEADLINE IS NOT LIKELY.  OVERSEEING THE CONFERENCE COMMITTEE BETWEEN  THE HOUSE AND SENATE, ROBERTS SAYS IT WILL BE  TOUGH TO SEE ACTION COMPLETED ON THE FARM BILL  BEFORE THE NOVEMBER ELECTIONS.  HE TOLD POLITICO, THOUGH, HE DOESN'T WANT TO  CONSIDER EXTENDING THE CURRENT FARM BILL  BECAUSE "IT GIVES PEOPLE THE CHANCE TO WEIGH IN AGAIN AND DELAY" THE NEGOTIATIONS, MAKING AN  AGREEMENT A BIGGER CHALLENGE. HOWEVER, EVEN AN EXTENSION WON'T GRANT FUNDING  FOR 39 PROGRAMS... WHICH INCLUDES FOREIGN MARKET DEVELOPMENT.. THAT PROGRAM FUNDS THINGS LIKE U-S GRAINS COUNCIL. BECAUSE THOSE  PROGRAMS DONT' HAVE A BASELINE, AN EXTENSION  WON'T FUND THOSE PROGRAMS. THE ONLY THING THAT  WILL HELP IS GETTING A FARM BILL DONE. FARM JOURNAL WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT JIM WIESEMEYER SAYS HE THINKS A NEW FARM BILL WILL  CROSS THE FINISH LINE YET THIS YEAR, AS 2019 BRINGS  A NEW SET OF COMPLICATIONS.  <THEY WOULD HAVE TO REINTRODUCE ANOTHER BILL. THEY WOULD HAVE  TO HAVE MARKUPS. THEY WOULD HAVE TO HAVE FLOOR DEBATES. THEY WOULD HAVE TO RESURRECT AMENDMENTS ON THE HOUSE AND SENATE  FLOOR. AND THIS TIME IT MAY NOT BE AS EASY ON EFFORTS TO ALTER THE  SUGAR PROGRAM TO CUT CROP INSURANCE, ETC. AND ALSO YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE 80 TO 100 NEW MEMBERS OF THE HOUSE NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS IN THESE ELECTIONS..> WIESEMEYER SAYS HE EXPECTS THE NEW FARM BILL TO  COME AFTER THE NOVEMBER ELECTIONS.  STRONG ECONOMIC GROWTH FUELING INTEREST  RATES. THE FEDERAL RESERVE MET WEDNESDAY OPTING TO  HIKE INTEREST RATES FOR THE THIRD TIME THIS YEAR. SETTING THE BENCHMARK INTEREST RATE A QUARTER  OF A PERCENTAGE POINT HIGHER IN A RANGE OF 2% TO  2.25%.  SO FAR, FED OFFICIALS INSIST THE TRADE SITUATION IS  A CONCERN THEY'RE HEARING FROM THEIR BUSINESS  CONTACTS,  THE SITUATION HAS NOT YET MANIFESTED  ITSELF IN ECONOMIC DATA. THE CATTLE INDUSTRY IS SITLL TRYING TO STOMACH  LAST WEEK'S BEARISH CATTLE ON FEED REPORT.  AT 11 POINT 1 MILLION HEAD, THE SEPTEMBER  INVENTORY WAS THE LARGEST SINCE THE DATA SERIES BEGAN IN 1996, AND AN AVERAGE OVER THE PAST 12  MONTHS SHOWS FEEDLOT INVENTORIES THE HIGHEST  SINCE 2007. FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1997, THERE ARE OVER 1 MILLION MORE CATTLE IN FEEDLOTS THAN THE 5-YEAR  AVERAGE. FEEDLOTS PLACED 7% MORE CATTLE IN AUGUST, WITH  THE UNDER 600 POUND CATEGORY UP 19%. THE HOG HERD IS ALSO GROWING. USDA'S LATEST  HOGS AND PIGS REPORT SHOWS INVENTORIES ARE UP  3 PERCENT OVER BOTH THIS TIME LAST YEAR AND JUNE.  OF THE 75 POINT 5 MILLION HEAD, 69 POINT 2 ARE  MARKET HOGS AND 6 POINT 3 MILLION WERE KEPT FOR  BREEDING.  

TEASE
UP NEXT, RAINS SLOWING DOWN HARVEST IN A LOT OF AREAS, BUT WILL SUNSHINE PREVAIL NEXT WEEK?  WE'LL HAVE A CHECK OF WEATHER.  PLUS, WE'LL DIG INTO THE LATEST GRAIN STOCKS  REPORT FROM USDA AND SEE HOW TRADE IS  IMPACTING THE GRAIN WE HAVE ON HAND.  

WEATHER
IT'S TIME NOW FOR A CHECK OF WEATHER. METEOROGLIST MIKE HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW, MIKE,  MORE RAINS HITTING A LOT OF AREAS THIS WEEK AS  FARMERS TRY TO PULL THIS YEAR'S CROPS OUT OF THE  FIELDS.  YEAH THANKS. KNOW THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK SYSTEMS  CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS WEEK BUT I DON'T SEE ANYTHING MAJOR REALLY COMING FROM MOST AREAS. YOU CAN SEE IT IS  STILL A MAJOR DROUGHT FOR THE FOUR CORNER REGION. IT'S GOTTEN DRIER IN  OREGON DRIER IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA. BUT  THESE SPOTS ACROSS THE PLAINS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN  PLAINS HAVE GOTTEN BETTER OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. IT HAS GOTTEN A LITTLE DRIER THOUGH IN PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND EASTERN PORTIONS  OF THE GREAT LAKES. BUT HERE'S THE BIG SITUATION. YOU CAN SEE WE  HAVE A TROUGH TRYING TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS WEEK. BUT THEN THE RIDGE KIND OF  BUILDS BACK IN AND THE TROUGH DIGS IN OUT WEST. THIS IS GOING TO  BE SOME DECENT MOISTURE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE. IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS IS GOING TO BE A LITTLE BIT OF A LEFTOVER OF A TROPICAL  SYSTEM. ALONG WITH THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THAT'S GOING TO  SPREAD SOME MOISTURE FROM THERE EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY  AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THEN THE RIDGE  CONTINUES IN THE SOUTHEAST TROUGH IN THE WEST AND HEADING INTO  NEXT WEEKEND THE TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.   NOW TAKING A LOOK AT THE FORECAST MAPS AS WE HEAD  THROUGH MONDAY WE HAVE A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH IOWA  OVER INTO THE GREAT LAKES A MAJOR PART OF THIS RAIN IS GOING TO BE  NORTH OF THIS WARM FRONT IT LOOKS LIKE JUST HIT AND MISS SHOWERS  AND STORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF COAST AREA AND ALSO COMING UP INTO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THAT. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL  SYSTEM. AND YOU CAN SEE A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE PACIFIC  NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY WHEN THAT FIRST SYSTEM IS ALREADY GONE. SECOND WIND COMING EASTWARD. SO THESE ARE FAST MOVING  SYSTEMS WHICH TYPICALLY DON'T PUT DOWN A WHOLE BUNCH OF RAIN BUT  THERE WILL BE AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS GREAT LAKES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BACK INTO THE  SOUTHWEST WHERE THE TROPICAL MOISTURE GETS INVOLVED AGAIN  CENTRAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION COULD  BE SOME GREAT NEWS FOR THOSE AREAS AND THEN AS WE HEAD  THROUGH FRIDAY THAT SYSTEMS KIND OF RIDING ALONG A STATIONARY  FRONT THAT WILL HAVE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  ALONG IT. PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT SHOWING UP ON THE COMPUTER  MODELS COMING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. ALL RIGHT HERE'S THE 90 DAY OUTLOOK OVER THE NEXT THREE  MONTHS WE GO MONTH BY MONTH ON THE TEMPERATURES BELOW  NORMAL TEMPERATURES I'M EXPECTING THROUGH THE NOR NORTHERN AND  CENTRAL PLAINS. BASICALLY WESTERN GREAT LAKES ABOVE NORMAL IN  THE SOUTHEAST MID-ATLANTIC AND ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST OF THE  WEST AS FAR AS NOVEMBER IS CONCERNED. I'M GOING BELOW NORMAL  FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY ABOVE  NORMAL THE FAR NORTHEAST ACTUALLY FAR EASTERN MID-ATLANTIC AND IN  MOST OF THE NORTHEAST AND AND ALSO WESTERN MONTANA BACK INTO  THE NORTHWEST ABOVE NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES FOR DECEMBER  THEN GOT A PRETTY LARGE AREA BELOW NORMAL FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO TEXAS.  EVERYWHERE EAST OF THERE ABOVE NORMAL FROM MONTANA  INTO THE NORTHWEST AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION NOW FOR THE NEXT 90  DAYS WE'RE GOING BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN CANADA  AND SOME OF THE NORTHERN TIER STATES SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHWEST EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL TIME.  THANKS, MIKIE

TEASE
UP NEXT, MIKE NORTH AND ANDY SHISSLER JOIN ME IN  THE STUDIO. IT SEEMS LIKE THE ISSUE WITH CHINA IS  GETTING WORSE-- NOT BETTER. THESE TWO WILL  WEIGH IN. 

ROUNDTABLE 1
WELCOME BACK TO US FARM REPORT. WELL A LOT OF TRADE NEWS TO DIGEST BUT BEFORE WE DO THAT ON FRIDAY MIKE AND ANDY WE SAW THE LATEST GRAIN STOCKS REPORT COME OUT. CORN STOCKS DOWN 153 MILLION SO WAITING STOCKS UP 136 MILLION. WHEAT STOCKS UP 113 MILLION BUSHELS. WE SAW PRICES REACT KIND OF NEGATIVELY. WHAT IS LEADING TO HIGHER SOYBEAN STOCKS IN WHEAT STOCKS AT THIS POINT. WELL THE REALITY IS THERE'S STILL A LOT OF OLD CROP THAT'S SITTING IN A BIT AND I THINK WE'RE STILL TRYING TO GAUGE REALLY WHAT THAT 2017 CROP WAS. WE ALL KNEW IT WAS BIG BUT THERE'S STILL A LOT OF IT LINGERING OUT THERE. IT'S BEEN SLOW TO COME TO TOWN. AND FRANKLY I THINK THE STOCKS ARE JUST FINALLY REALIZING WHAT THE CASH MARKET ALREADY HAS AND BASES ARE WIDE AND THAT I THINK IS A BIG PART OF IT. RIGHT. CASH PRICES REALIZE THAT. WHAT ABOUT FUTURES PRICES DO YOU THINK THIS CHANGES THE DYNAMICS AND FUTURES PRICES ANYWAY WHEN IT COMES TO THE LATEST GREEN STOCKS REPORT. WELL I MEAN IT'S I WAS JUST IN NORTH DAKOTA HERE OF LIKE A WEEK OR SO AGO AND THERE'S NO BIT OFF THE PNW. AND SO THERE'S A BACKLOG OF BEANS THAT GOES ALL THE WAY INTO THE WESTERN BELT AND WE KNOW THAT AND IT'S PRETTY EVIDENT IT'S EVIDENT IN THE BASES. SO IT COULD HAVE BEEN WORSE WITH ARGENTINA KIND OF OUT OF THE MARKET. WE PICKED UP SALES FROM OTHER PEOPLE BUT WE'VE SOLD NOTHING IN THE CASH MARKET TO CHINA FOR GOING ON FOR MONTHS. SO THAT USUALLY CLEANS UP OUR BEAN CROP AND THIS YEAR WE DIDN'T SEND IN THE NOT THE PNW THAT CLEAN IT UP. SO IT MAKES IT REALLY MESSY. CORN WE USUALLY FIND CORN IN THIS CROP REPORT AND WE FOUND CORN AGAIN IT'S BETTER THAN A YEAR AGO. I CAN TELL YOU A CASH BASIS AS WE'RE PROBABLY 10 CENTS BETTER THAN LAST YEAR ON AVERAGE. SO IT FELT A LITTLE CLEANER BUT STILL FELT A LITTLE SLOPPY AND SAY IT KIND OF MAKES SENSE TO ME. WELL YOU KNOW WE KNOW EXPORTS TO CHINA HAVE BEEN CUT OFF VIRTUALLY FOR SOYBEANS. BUT WE HEARD THIS WEEK THAT MAYBE ARGENTINA MAYBE CHINA IS BUYING THROUGH ARGENTINA. IS THAT REALLY THE CASE OR IS IT STILL A GUESSING GAME WHEN IT COMES TO THAT.  IT IS EXACTLY THE CASE. THIS IS A SHELL GAME. WE'VE SAID FOR A LONG TIME THAT THEY NEED THE BEANS AND WHILE THEY WILL NOT COME OUT AND BUY THEM FROM THEU.S. YOU CAN'T IGNORE THE NUMBERS. AND THEY ARE GOING THROUGH THE CHANNELS THEY HAVE TO IN ORDER TO GET WHAT THEY NEED. SO IF ARGENTINA HAS STOPPED BY OUR BEANS AND PUT IT ON A PIECE OF PAPER OR MAYBE A DIFFERENT BOAT THEY WILL AND THAT'S A GAME THAT'S BEING PLAYED. DO YOU THINK CHINA WILL BUY ANY OF OUR BEANS THIS YEAR DIRECTLY FROM US AT THIS POINT.OH I HOPE SO. WE ALL HAVE LIKE MY OFFICE TRADES VISA CHINA. WE HAVE TRADED CARGOES FOR FOR BOATS YOU KNOW HAPPY I AM NOT VERY HAPPY NONE OF MY FARMERS ARE HAPPY. SO I LIKE TO TRADE SOYBEANS IN THE MARKETS GARBAGE. I DON'T KNOW WHAT I MEAN I CAN'T SEE HOW THEY CAN NOT BUY US BEANS BUT I GUESS THE TARIFF PRICE AGAINST THE BEANS IT'S LOW ENOUGH THEY CAN DO IT. BUT IT'S POLITICAL IN NATURE. OUR GUYS ARE HANDCUFFED IN CHINA TO BUY BEANS FROM US. AND UNTIL I SEE THE CUFFS COME OFF WHATEVER THEY DO I'LL BE REALLY REALLY REALLY REALLY BULLISH. BUT OUR EXPORT PROGRAM STARTS NOW. I'M VERY VERY DISAPPOINTED THAT WE'RE NOT DOING ANYTHING THIS REALLY SUCKS. ALL RIGHT WELL WE NEED TO TAKE A QUICK BREAK ALREADY BUT WHEN WE COME BACK WE'LL TALK ABOUT WHAT IF WE DO NOT SEE ANY BUYS FROM CHINA IN OCTOBER. WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR PRICES MIKE. WE'LL TAKE A QUICK BREAK AND THEN LATER ON THE SHOW WE'LL COVER THAT. 

JOHN’S WORLD
SOME OF YOU MAY REMEMBER A FEW WEEKS AGO I WAS WHINING  ABOUT THE SERVO VALVE ON MY SPRAYER FAILING AND THE SUBSEQUENT  WEED STREAKS I HAD IN MY FIELD. I CHALLENGED THE SPRAYER INDUSTRY TO INVENT A SIMPLE MONITOR TO SHOW WHEN THE SPRAYER CONTROL  THINKS THE VALVE IS OPEN BUT IT'S NOT.  NOTHING HAPPENED. SO AS I THREATENED, I HAVE INVENTED THE  MIRACULOUS SOLUTION. INTRODUCING THE PHIPPS-O-MATIC 3000 SSSP, STUPID SPRAYER STREAK PREVENTER. IT'S A SIMPLE DEVICE  THAT LIGHTS UP WHEN THERE IS POWER TO THE BOOM SECTION SERVO,  BUT NOT FLOW - HENCE THE PRODUCT MOTTO: IF THE LIGHT'S A-GLOWIN', THE  SPRAY ISN'T FLOWIN," THIS STUNNINGLY SIMPLE ADD-ON USES MINIATURE PRESSURE SWITCHES. THEY CAN COST FROM $30-100, BUT I GOT THE EXPENSIVE  ONES FOR THE STAINLESS-STEEL CONSTRUCTION, AND EASY PRESSURE  ADJUSTMENT RING. THE LIGHTS ARE SIMPLE 12 VOLT LED'S, AND THE FUTURISTIC HOUSING IS ¾" PLYWOOD OF MY OWN ORIGINAL DESIGN.  THE CABLE IS 10 STRAND - 18 GAUGE SPRINKLER WIRE, BUT I ONLY USED 6  STRANDS.I HAD A CHOICE OF 10 OR 250 FEET, AND I DIDN'T WANT TOO  MANY CONNECTIONS, SO I HAVE 200 FEET LEFT. I USED WEATHERPACK CONNECTORS BECAUSE I'VE HAD GOOD EXPERIENCE WITH  THEM AND RECOMMEND T-SPICE SNAP CONNECTORS. IT'S ALSO NECESSARY TO ADD  A TEE AND GAUGE ADAPTER TO EACH BOOM SECTION HOSE BARB, BUT  BANJO MANIFOLD FITTINGS MADE THAT FAIRLY EASY. YOU CAN ALSO USE THE ALTERNATE SWITCH CONTACTS AND HAVE GREEN LIGHTS THAT ARE ON  WHEN THINGS ARE WORKING BUT GO OFF AT FAILURE - YOUR PREFERENCE. I KNOW WHAT YOU'RE THINKING - GOSH, JOHN. I'D PAY DOZENS OF  DOLLARS FOR A PHIPPS-O-MATIC, BUT THEY ARE NOT FOR SALE. THAT'S  RIGHT, PUT YOUR CREDIT CARD AWAY, I'M GIVING THIS TECHNOLOGICAL  BREAKTHROUGH AWAY FOR FREE. ROUGHLY WHAT IT IS WORTH. ON OUR  WEBSITE YOU CAN DOWNLOAD THIS EPISODE SCRIPT WITH A PDF OF THE MATERIALS, LINKS TO SUPPLIERS, AND MY HAND-DRAWN SCHEMATIC,  ALTHOUGH ANY SIXTH-GRADER CAN FIGURE OUT THE CIRCUIT. THERE ARE  ALSO A FEW NOTES FROM THINGS I LEARNED BY TRIAL AND ERROR. THERE IS ALSO A MORE DETAILED VIDEO WITH PROFESSIONAL QUALITY INSTALLATION  HINTS. THE PHIPPS-O-MATIC 3000. BE THE FIRST ONE IN YOUR NEIGHBORHOOD  TO SHOW IT OFF ON YOUR SPRAYER, AND SAY GOODBYE TO EMBARRASSING  SPRAYER SKIPS. JUST A DAY IN THE LIFE OF JOHN PHIPPS. BY THE WAY,  WE'RE POSTING THE PLANS FOR HE PHIPPS-O-MATIC 3000  ON AGWEB.THANKS, JOHN.  

TEASE
UP NEXT, A SPECIAL PRESIDENTIAL TRACTOR. WE HEAD  TO CHAPIN, ILLINOIS NEXT. 05 

TRACTOR TALES
WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES FOLKS. THIS WEEK WE'RE GOING TO  HEAD TO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO CHECK OUT A CLASSIC. JOHN DEERE  86 30. WHILE THIS TRACTOR WAS A COMMON WORKHORSE ON THE FARM THIS MODEL HAD A VERY SPECIAL VISITOR TAKE A RIDE IN 1975 JOHN  DEERE 86 30 THAT WE BOUGHT NEW IT'S SENTIMENTAL TO ME BECAUSE  I GAVE PRESIDENT RONALD REAGAN A TRACTOR RIDE IN THAT TRACTOR  OCTOBER 28 1982 WHEN HE WAS PRESIDENT AND IT ALL HAPPENED  BECAUSE MY BROTHER WAS ILLINOIS DIRECTOR OF AG AND PRESIDENT REAGAN NEEDED A PLACE TO COME TO ILLINOIS AND GIVE A SPEECH  ALONG WITH ANOTHER EVENT. HE WAS GOING TO ATTEND. HE ENDED UP COMING TO OUR FARM. I SAID WELL IF HE COMES I'LL GIVE HIM A TRACTOR  RIDE AND THE WHITE HOUSE PRESS GUY LIKED IT. OUR FAMILY WAS TO  KEEP THAT SECRET FOR A MONTH. WE COULDN'T TELL ANYBODY AND WE PRACTICE THAT TRACTOR RIDE EVERY DAY FOR A WEEK OF THE SHOW DAY AT  THE PRECISE TIME OF DAY FOR WHERE THE SUN WAS GOING TO BE THE  BEST PICTURES. PRESIDENT REAGAN HOPPED IN WITH ME AND WE WENT DOWN THE FIELD 300 YARDS AND TURNED AROUND CAME BACK AND WE  TALKED ABOUT TRACTORS WE'RE GOING TO MAKE A ROUND WITH TRACTOR  AND CHISEL PLOW THE RAIN AT LEAST AN INCH THE NIGHT BEFORE. SO THE CHISEL APPLYING WAS THAT COULDN'T HAPPEN. WE WERE SO WE WERE  JUST GOING TO MAKE. WITH IT JUST PLOWED THE GROUND MAKE AROUND  ABOUT 300 YARDS DOWN THE FIELD AND TURN AROUND COME BACK. IT WAS QUITE A DAY. . SUCH A SPECIAL MEMORY FOR THE WERRIES FAMILY.  THANKS FOR SHARING.  

TEASE
UP NEXT, AS THE FINANCIAL PAIN RIPPLES THROUGH THE FARM ECONOMY, IT'S TOUGH CONVERSATIONS  WITH AG LENDERS THAT MAY POP UP AFTER HARVEST.  WE'LL GET YOU PREPARED, NEXT. 

FARM JOURNAL REPORT
FROM THE STUDIOS OF FARM JOURNAL BROADCAST, THIS IS U.S. FARM REPORT.  AS YIELDS ROLL IN THIS FALL, SOME FARMERS ARE PLEASENTLY SURPRISED WITH THE CROP ROLLING IN.  WHILE YIELDS ARE STRONG, PRICES ARE STRUGGLING.  DR JOE OUTLAW FROM TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY SAYS  FARMERS ARE HAVING TO CUT EXPENSES,  RESTRUCTURE DEBT AND LOOK FOR ADDITIONAL  SOURCES OF INCOME TO SURVIVE.  AS DEBT TO ASSET RATIOS CLIMB HIGHER, INTEREST  RATES ARE ALSO CREEPING UP AND SOME FARMERS DREAD THE TENSE CONVERSATIONS WITH BANKERS THAT COULD ARISE  THIS FALL. SITUATION, IT'S  COMMUNCIATION THAT'S CRITCAL.  IT'S THE TWISTS AND TURNS THAT COME WITH FARMING CAUSING A TIGTHENING OF BALANCE SHEETS ON  FARMS ACROSS THE COUNTRY.  <I THINK YOU'RE GONG TO SEE A DECLINE THIS YEAR. EVEN IF OUR YIELDS  TREND HIGHER, THERE WILL BE A DECLINE. I THINK EVERYBODY IS TIGETHENING THEIR BELTS A LITTLE BIT.> KAVEN SAYS HE'S NOT MAKING ANY BIG CHANGES TO  THE FARM... AS NEIGHBORS ARE ALSO STICKIGN WITH  STATUS QUO IN ORDER TO WITHSTAND TOUGH  ECONOMIC TIMES.   WE'VE BEEN IN A SIX YEAR AGRICULTURE ECONOMIC RESET. IN  THE 1980S IT WAS LIKE OUR CURVEBALL DROPPED OFF THE TABLE AND  SLOWLY CAME BACK AFTER FOUR YEARS. THIS ONE I CALL THE GRINDER.  AND IT'S HAVING A REAL IMPACT NOT ONLY ON THE FINANCIAL BUT ALSO THE EMOTIONS OF AGRICULTURE PRODUCERS OUT THERE. > THE BLEAK PICTURE IS EATING INTO BOTH THE MENTAL  AND FINCNAIAL STATE OF FARMERS.  CREIGHTON UNIVERSITY'S AUGUST RURAL MAINSTREET INDEX REVEALING A THIRD OF AG BANKERS ARE  STARTING TO TURN DOWN MORE AG LOANS.  <I WOULDN'T SAY WE'RE DECLINING MORE LOAN.S WE'RE WORKIGN MUCH  MORE CLOSELY WITH OUR BORROWERS. > ALAN HOSKINS OF AMERICAN FARM MORTGAGE SAYS  WHILE HE'S NOT SEEING A BIG UPTICK IN DELIQNUENCY  RATES TODAY, IT COULD BECOME A REALITY NEXT  SPRING.  <I WOULD ANTICIPATE ON THE CASH GRAINS SIDE, DELINQUENCIES MAY  NOT START SHOWIGN ITS HEAD UNTIL FEBRUARY, MARCH OF NEXT YEAR> UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI'S PAT WESTHOFF  THE TARIFF  RELIEF AID PAYMENTS AREN'T EVEN ENOUGH TO MAKE  ALL PRODUCERS WHOLE TODAY. .  SO EVEN WITH THE PAYMENTS TO FARMERS WHEN TO THE  MARKET FACILITATION PROGRAM IS NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE UP THOSE LOST  MERKUR REASONS BUT ARE THERE SOME PRODUCERS OUT THERE THAT ARE  ACTUALLY GOING TO MAKE MORE MONEY THIS YEAR THAN THEY DID IN  2017. > BOUTNIFUL BUSHELS ARE LEADING SOME CORN  FARMERS TO BETTER MARGINS THIS YEAR.  IF YIELDS PROVE TO BE AS HIGH AS THEIR EARLIER ESTIMATE OF  ME BY USDA WHERE YOU CAN ACTUALLY SEE AN INCREASE IN RETURNS  TO CORN PRODUCERS WHEREAS IN APRIL THIS YEAR CORN PRICES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT A DIME HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR, BUT  WITH A BIG CROP, AS WELL, THAT COULD ACTUALLY MEAN MORE RECEIPTS  TO CORN FARMERS. > KOHL SAYS BEYOND PRODUCTION, HE'S STARTED ANALYZING WHAT SOME  PRODUCERS ARE DOING TO  FARE BETTER THAN OTHERS.  WHAT WE'RE FINDING IS A CERTAIN GROUP OF PRODUCERS ARE  GETTING A HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF THE SMALLER INCOME. AND THOSE PEOPLE GENERALLY HAVE A HIGHER BUSINESS IQ. > MORE THAN JUST A KEEN SENSE OF BUSINESS, IT'S  ALSO THOSE HOLDING ON TO OWNED LAND THAR ARE WITNESSING BETTER RETURNS.  < WE'RE SIX YEARS IN ON THIS ONE THING THAT'S HOLDING US UP  IS OUR LAND VALUES, IF LAND VALUES STARTED COMING OFF. WE COULD  BE IN SOME SERIOUS TROUBLE BECAUSE LAND THINK ABOUT THIS. IT'S2.8 OF THE THREE POINT FIVE TRILLION DOLLAR FARM BALANCE SHEET. SO IT'S 81  PERCENT OF THE BALANCE SHEET. SO IT STILL GIVES PRODUCERS THE  OPTION TO REFINANCE. > FROM AN AG LENDERS VIEW, HOSKINS SAYS THERE ARE  TWO MAIN GROUPS OF FARMERS HANDLING THE  HEADWINDS BEST.  <HAVING A GOOD HANDLE ON WHERE THEY ARE FINANCIALLY, HAVING A  GODO WORKING CAPTAL, UNDERSTANDING THEIR CASH FLOW> THE SECOND GROUP OF PRODUCERS ARE ONES THAT  HAD A GOOD MARKETING PLAN, ABLE TO SELL GRAIN  AND PUT PROFITS ON THE BOOKS.  BUT ON THE OTHER SIDE, DAIRY PRODUCERS SEEM TO  BE TRUGGLING THE MOST. <OBVIOUSLY THEY HAVE MORE OPERATING CYCLES PER YEAR THAN THE  TRADITION GRAIN FARM, SO THEY FEEL THE PAIN QUICKER. AND DAIRY HAS  BEEN DEPRESSED LONGER THAN WHAT WE'VE SEEN ON THE CORN AND BEAN SIDE> BROWN SAYS EACH YEAR, FIRST FINANCIAL DOES A  STRESS TEST WITH IT'S AG PORTOFLIO, AND IN EVERY  SITUATION, COMMUNICATION IS KEY.  <THE BIGGEST THIGN IS COME IN, LAY OUT ALL THE CARDS, HELP HTE  BANKER REALLY UNDERSTAND WHAT'S HAPPENING WITH THEIR OPEARTION  BECAUSE THERE MAY BE SOME SOLUTIONS AGAIN DEPENDING ON HOW  MUCH DEBTS ALREADY ON THE BALANCE SHSET, WHAT THE ASSETS ARE, THERE MAY BE SOME SOLUTIONS TO WORK TRHOUGH SOME THINGS OVER  A LONGER PERIOD> HE SAYS THOSE CONVERSATIONS CAN OFTEN LEAD TO  VIABLE SOLUTIONS.  <MAYBE THEY SPENT SOEM MONEY OR PAID FOR EQUIPMENT WITH  CASH, AND WE CAN TURN AROUND AND SAY NO LET'S PUT THAT ON A TERM LOAN AND PUT SOME CASH BACK INTO THE FARM. IT'S THOSE KINDS  OF THINGS WE CAN DO BUT IT STARTS WITH A CONVERSATION COMING TO  THE BANK HOSKINS AGREES, SAYING AS FARMERS MENTALLY AND PHSYICALLY PREPARE FOR CONVERSATIONS THIS FALL,  DON'T GO IN WITH ANY FEAR.  <I THINK THEY SHOULD PREPARE BY NUMBER 1, HAVING NUMBERS  READY TO TALK ABOUT, AND NUMBER 2, AND MORE IMPORTANTLY, NOT FEARING THE CONVERSATION. IT SHOULD NOT BE AN ADVERSERIAL  SITUATION. IT SHOULD BE  THE CASE OF A PRODUER TALKING TO THEIR  LENDER IN TEH FORM OF AN ADVISOR> HE SAYS A LENDER SHOULD BE A PARTNER, NOT AN ENEMY.  <NUMNER ONE, DON'T ASSUME THAT YOUR LENDER IS THE ONLY LENDER THAT EXISTS. IS THE CASE, IN MOST SIUTATIONS, GET A SECOND OPINION  OR A THIRD OPINION, BECUASE DIFFERENT INSTITUTIONS HAVE DIFFERENT PHILOSHOPHIES>  AS FARMERS HARVEST ANOTHER YEAR'S CROP, 2019  MAY BE MORE OF THE SAME...  < IN OUR BASELINE UPDATE THAT WE DID IN AUGUST BASED ON THE CURRENT SITUATION WE PROJECT ANOTHER YEAR OF SUB $9 SOYBEAN  PICES IN 2019. > AND AS PRICE PAIN PINCHES FARMS ACROSS THE  COUNTRY, THESE  KEY CONVERSATIONS WITH BANKERS  THIS FALL MAY BE THE LIFELINE TO HELP FARMS SURVIVE ANOTHER YEAR.  WHEN LOOKING AT ALL OF AGRICULTURE, HOSKINS SAYS IT'S PRODUCERS ON THE WEST COAST FARING  BETTER THAN OTHERS, ESPCIALLY THOSE GROWING  WALNUTS, ALMONDS AND OTHER CROPS.  UP NEXT,  OUR MARKETING DISCUSSION KICKS BACK UP.

ROUNDTABLE 2
WELCOME BACK MIKE NORTH AND ANDY SHISSLER GOING BACK ON THE TOPIC OF CHINA BECAUSE HOW CAN WE NOT AT THIS POINT IS SUCH A MONSTER HANGING OVER OUR MARKETS. WHAT IF WE DON'T SEE CHINA COME TO BUY. IN OCTOBER WE KNOW THAT KIND OF THAT SEPTEMBER OCTOBER TIMEFRAME. TYPICALLY WHEN WE SEE THEM BUT WHAT IF WE DON'T. WHAT HAPPENS TO OUR ALREADY STRUGGLING GAS PRICES. WELL I THINK THE REALITY IS WE'RE GOING TO GET A LITTLE BIT MORE OF THE SAME. RIGHT IF YOU LOOK AT THE FLOW OF BEANS OUT OF THIS COUNTRY THERE ARE ACTUALLY STILL DECENT ALTHOUGH CHINA'S NOT AT THE TOP OF THE LIST. I AM A FIRM BELIEVER THAT THERE ARE IN THE HUNT. BUT THE REALITY IS IF ALL THEY DO IS PUSH BACK AND MAYBE THEY SECURE TWO THREE 400 MILLION FROM SOUTH AMERICA THAT THEY WOULD HAVE BOUGHT FROM US. THINK ABOUT WHAT THAT MEANS TO OUR BALANCE SHEET. THAT PUTS US NORTH OF A BILLION BUSHELS IN CARRY OUT THAT NOW SUDDENLY TANKS. ANY IDEA OF GROWING SOYBEANS IN THIS COUNTRY NEXT YEAR. FARMERS ARE GOING TO RUN AWAY FROM THAT AND THEIR ACREAGE MIX AND THAT MIGHT BE THE OFFSET RIGHT. THE REALITY IS THIS COULD SET UP ONE OF THE BIGGEST ACREAGE BATTLES THAT WE'VE EVER SEEN AND THERE WON'T HAVE TO EVEN BE A FIGHT GUYS WILL ABANDON SOYBEANS TO PLANT CORN AND THEN BY SPRING WE MIGHT HAVE AGAIN A STORY FOR SOYBEANS SO THIS COULD BE A VERY INTERESTING WINTER. HOW SCARY THOUGH IS IT TO LOOK AT THOSE PROJECTIONS FOR CORN ACRES NEXT YEAR. I MEAN YOU YOU SAID IT WE COULD SEE A TON OF ACRES GOING INTO CORN AND IT JUST SEEMS LIKE IT. WILL THE MARKET BE ABLE TO STOMACH THAT MANY ACRES. I'M NOT EVEN GOING TO LOOK PAST NOVEMBER AT THIS POINT BECAUSE I FIGURE IN THE NEXT 30 DAYS WE'LL GET SOMETHING SOMETHING WILL HAPPEN OR NOT. IT'S LIKE SO POLITICALLY IF THEY WANT THE REPUBLICAN TO CHANGE OR WHATEVER THAT IS THERE'S 30 MILLION METRIC TONS OF BEANS THAT SHIPPED TO CHINA BETWEEN NOW AND THEN THERE'S NOT A PLACE TO BUY 30 MILLION METRIC TONS OF BEANS ANYWHERE EXCEPT HERE. IT'S LIKE IF WE CROSS A POLITICAL ROAD WHERE THERE'S NO COMING BACK FROM WE'LL BUY GOODS FROM CHINA WITH A TARIFF ON THEM THEY'LL BUY GOODS FROM US WITH A TARIFF ON THEM AND WE'LL MOVE ALONG THE ROAD. I THINK IT'S LIKE I THINK THERE'S A POINT POLITICALLY WHERE IT'S JUST LIKE ALL RIGHT WE'RE CHARGING YOU A TARIFF YOU'RE GOING TO CHARGE US A TARIFF AND THAT'S JUST HOW IT'S GOING TO BE. THAT'S ONE WAY THIS COULD GO. THAT'S WHAT I WOULD DO. THE FACT THAT WE GIVE A TARIFF THAT BIG IT'S GOING TO PUT TARIFFS AGAINST A WHOLE BUNCH OF STUFF THEY'RE GOING TO PUT TARIFFS WHOLE BUNTS OUR STUFF. I MEAN REALLY WHEN YOU DO THE MATH IT STILL WORKS RIGHT. WE WERE AT 13 PERCENT TARIFF BEFORE WE WENT TO 25. SO IF YOU LOOK AT THE 12 PERCENT INCREASE BUT TAKE IT INTO ACCOUNT AGAINST THE TWO AND A HALF DOLLAR DROP IN PRICE IT WORKS. I CAN SAY THIS TO THE PRICE OF BEANS DOESN'T MATTER. CHINA CAN PAY 7 6 9 13 16. IT'S A DROP IN A BUCKET. AS FAR AS WHAT THE MONEY VALUE IS IT'S PURELY POLITICAL AT THIS POINT. THAT'S A PRESSURE POINT. AND THEY COULD TAKE THAT PRESSURE OFF IN A DAY THE WAY THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT WORKS. THERE'S ONE GUY THAT MAKES THE DECISION AND HE CAN SAY ALL RIGHT THIS IS GOOD ENOUGH WE'LL CALL THIS A WHEN YOU CALL THIS A WIN. WE'RE KIND OF GOOD HERE TODAY IT LOOKS LIKE WE'RE GOING BACKWARDS WE'RE NOT WE'RE NOT IMPROVING ANY AND WHAT MAKES THIS CONVERSATION INTERESTING RIGHT NOW IS IF ARGENTINA IS THE PATHWAY TO CHINA. THINK OF THE OF THE CURRENCY ISSUES THAT WE HAVE RIGHT NOW. THE ARGENTINEAN PESO CONTINUES TO GET WEAKER AGAINST THE STRONG DOLLAR. AND SO NOW WE'VE GOT THIS MULTIPLIER EFFECT OF TAKING OUR OUR BEANS ADDING A TARIFF RUNNING IT THROUGH AN EXCHANGE RATE THAT'S NOT FAVORABLE. AND THEN HAVING A BODUM THE CHINA AND HE'S RIGHT THE BODY WILLING TO DO IT. THEY'RE WILLING TO DO IT BECAUSE THE MONEY DOESN'T REALLY MATTER. THEY ARE YOU KNOW TO ME THE BIGGER PICTURE IS IT'S THE MARGINAL CHANGE IN BUSINESS THAT WE DO RIGHT AS WE TALK ABOUT BALANCE SHEETS AND ENDING STOCKS. IT'S THOSE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE BOTTOM THAT HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON PRICE. WE HAVE YET TO GO BACK AND TEST THE 2009 LOW BUT REALIZE THE LOW ON BEANS RIGHT NOW HAS GOTTEN WITHIN 40 CENTS OF IT. SO AS WE LOOK TOWARD USERS PRICE FUTURES PRICE AND THEN YOU PUT A HORRIBLE BASIS ON THAT WE COULD BE REALLY TALKING THE SAME NUMBERS THAT WE TRADED IN 2006. YOU KNOW THIS IS THE KIND OF STUFF THAT THE MARKET IS GOING TO HAVE TO BE WORKING THROUGH. SO IF CHINA DOESN'T COME BACK DIRECTLY TO ASK THE BUY BEANS. YEAH WE SEE THEM CIRCUMVENT THOSE ARGENTINA BUT WE DON'T SEE CHINA DIRECTLY COME TO US. ANDY WHAT HAS TO CHANGE IN THE WAY THE MARKET WHAT HAS TO HAPPEN FOR ANY HOPE OF HIGHER PRICES OUT THERE. I THINK I THINK THAT WILL CHANGE. I JUST CAN'T IMAGINE THAT'S HOW THIS IS GOING TO GO. YOU LOOK AT WALL STREET AND ALL THE MONEY THAT SIT IN THE STOCK MARKET RIGHT NOW IT'S NOT JUST SOYBEANS IT'S ALL THE COMMODITY MARKETS HAVE GOTTEN DRILLED LIKE WE TREAT A LOT OF COCOA. IT'S PROBABLY A REALLY SAFE LONG INVESTMENT HERE BECAUSE SOMETIME IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS THE FUNDS BELONG. I CAN ALMOST BET YOU REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS HERE THE FUNDS ARE GOING TO GO ALONG BEANS OR SOMEWHERE THAT CHINA WILL BUY BEANS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER. I THINK WHAT ABOUT MILK. I MEAN DAIRY IS IT'S VERY RELIANT UPON EXPORTS TO WHAT HAS TO HAPPEN TO TURN THESE PRICES AROUND. WELL TRADE WOULD BE A BIG A BIG CONVERSATION POINT THERE. WE'VE GOT A DEAL LOOKS REALLY GOOD ON MEXICO. WE'RE STILL WAITING FOR CANADA TO COME TO THE TABLE. BUT CHINA AS AS A SINGLE COUNTRY IS OUR THIRD BIGGEST SINGLE COUNTRY DESTINATION. WE CAN'T IGNORE THE FACT THAT IF THEY'RE OUT OF THE MIX IT'S GOING TO HURT OUR MARKETPLACE. SO YOU KNOW WE'VE BEEN DOING BUSINESS WHERE WE CAN. SOUTHEAST ASIA HAS BEEN GOOD. NORTH AFRICA MIDDLE EAST THAT'S BEEN A GOOD SPOT FOR US. BUT THE REALITY IS WE NEED TRADE AND IT NEEDS TO BE ROBUST BECAUSE WE'VE INVESTED INTO ONGOING GROWTH OF TRADE NOT FLAT OR DECLINING. WE NEED TRADE. THAT'S EVERY COMMODITY. THANKS SO MUCH. PLEASE STAY WITH US. WELLU.S. FARM REPORT MORE FORU.S. FARM REPORT RIGHT AFTER THE BREAK. 

FARMING THE HORIZON
A FARMER IN CLINTON, NORTH CAROLINA INVITED US ON  HIS OPERATION A WEEK BEFORE FLORENCE ARRIVED -  EVEN THOUGH HE WAS RUSHING HARVEST AS QUICKLY  AS POSSIBLE.  IN TODAY'S 'FARMING ON THE HORIZON, BETSY JIBBEN  SHOWS US ONE FARMER WHO DEMONSTRATES HOW HE  STAYS SUSTAINABLE IN FARMING, EVEN WHEN  UNEXPECTED STORMS JOLT HARVEST PLANS.  COMBINES ARE MOVING CONSISTENTLY BUT WITH  URGENCY THIS IS THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM.  <"IT IS GO TIME. IT IS GO TIME,"> CLINTON, NORTH CAROLINA FARMER CHRIS NAYLOR IS  ON A TIMELINE,  A TIMELINE SET BY AN UNWELCOME VISITOR -  FLORENCE. <"WE'VE HAD SOME HURRICANES AND WET CONDITIONS, YOU KNOW. WE  TRY TO GET OUT THERE BEFOREHAND AND GET OUT WHAT WE CAN. POST  HURRICANE, OR TROPICAL STORM. IT HAS BEEN ROUGH,"> CHOICES ARE FEW AND TIME IS LIMITED DURING HURRICANE YEARS HE'S FACED WITH LITTLE  CHOICE - PUT GRAIN IN STORAGE, SELL OR DELIVER  -  BUT THE END GOAL IS THE SAME - TO GET IT OUT OF  THE FIELD ANY WAY POSSIBLE. <"IF YOU HAVE SOME PRE SOLD THAT YOU CAN GO AHEAD AND DELIVER.  THAT WAY YOU'RE NOT JUST TAKING WHAT THE ELEVATOR CAN GIVE YOU AT  THIS POINT DURING HARVEST. IF YOU HAVE SOME PRESOLD. IF YOU DON'T  HAVE ANY PRESOLD, I WOULD SAY GET IT OUT ANYWAY YOU CAN GET IT  OUT,"> IN THIS CASE, NAYLOR GOT ALL OF HIS CORN OUT OF THE FIELD  OTHERS, NOT SO LUCKY. <SHOW HIS PICTURES OF AP VIDEO> MIGHTY FLORENCE CREATED FLOODING, WASHED OUT ROADS AND  DAYS WITHOUT POWER. THE WEATHER IS THE PRICE OF LIVING IN THE CAROLINAS - WITH THE CHALLENGE COMES A REASON  TO MANAGE MONEY AND WELL.  SOMETHING HE LEARNED WITH HURRICANE MATTHEW  BACK IN 2016  (TOOK OUT MIDDLE) - ALL KNOWLEDGE GAINED. <"THIS ISN'T HTE FIRST HARVEST WHERE NAYLOR IS DEALING WITH DIFFICULT  WEATHE.R THAT'S WHY HE CREDITS HIS SUCCESS TO HAVING A GOOD  MARKETING PLAN."> <"TRY TO BE A GOOD MARKETER. FIND OUT WHAT YOUR BREAK EVEN IS.  SCALE AT OR ABOVE BREAK EVEN. THAT WILL HELP YOU KEEP GOING FOR  THE NEXT YEAR."> THE FARMER WITH DEEP AG ROOTS... <"IT'S BEEN IN MY FAMILY FOR FIVE GENERATIONS,"> MAKES IT A PRIORITY TO KEEP THE LONGEVITY GOING..  OWNING AND LEASING LAND BUT TRYING NOT TO SELL. <"VE ALWAYS HEARD IF YOU SELL ANY LAND, YOU WON'T HAVE ANY  OPPORTUNITY TO BUY IT BACK.IF WE BUY ANY, WE TRY NOT TO SELL IT."> A SITUATION THAT'S NOT EASY IN HIS AREA. <"LAND AQUISITIONS ARE A CHALLENGE. IF YOU CAN ONLY MAKE A  CERTAIN AMOUNT PER ACRE, T HE MORE ACRES YOU CAN DO, THE BETTER  OFF YOU'LL BE AS FAR AS BEING SUSTAINABLE."> TO STAY SUSTAINABLE, HE'S MAKING INVESTMENTS  WITH TECHNOLOGY.  <"I'VE ALWAYS LOVED TECHNOLOGY, THE MORE YOU FARM, THE MORE  TECHNOLOGY YOU'RE UTILIZING. IT ALL INTERTWINS TOGETHER."> NAYLOR OPERATES TWO DATA MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS  WHERE HE USES DRONE TECHNOLOGY AND SATELLITE IMAGERY.  <"WE IMPLEMENT ALL OF THOSE TOGETHERE TO LOOK AT  OUR FIELD HELATH  AND HOW IT WAS DURING HTE GROWING SEASON. YOU HAVE TO FACTOR IN WEATHER CONDITIONS AT THE END OF HTE YEAR. YOU CAN SEE HOW  DIFFERENT HYBRIDS PRODUCED ON DIFFERENT FARMS, DIFFERENT SOILS AND  TRY TO PREPARE FOR NEXT YEAR WITH THAT INFORMATION THAT YOU'VE  GATHERED FROM THSI YEAR."> KNOWLEEDGE GAINED TO USE FOR THE UPCOMING  YEAR... A PREPARATION TO FACE THE WEATHER UNKNOWNS OF THE ATLANTIC... SO HARVEST WON'T JUST LOOK, BUT RUN  EFFORTLESSLY. THANKS, BETSY. NAYLOR SAYS HE'S SAFE - HE JUST  GOT POWER BACK IN HIS HOME.  HOWEVER, HE SAYS THERE ARE STILL RESCUES  OCCURING ROUGHLY 20 MILES AWAY FROM HIM.  UP NEXT, CUSTOMER SUPPORT.  

CUSTOMER SUPPORT
WE'VE BEEN VISITING COLLEGE CAMPUSES ACROSS THE COUNTRY AS PART OF OUR ROADSHOW. I RECENTLY  DID A STORY ABOUT HOW IT'S NOT COLLEGE  GRADUATES IN HIGH DEMAND. HERE'S JOHN PHIPS.  TYNE'S REPORT ABOUT THE SHORTAGE OF DIESEL MECHANICS AND MORE  EDUCATION OPTIONS HIT A NERVE FOR ONE READER. "I'M FRUSTRATED BY THE RELUCTANCE OF SOCIETY TO EMBRACE 'VOCATIONAL/TECHNICAL' EDUCATION. THE EDUCATION FIELD HAS FOR SO  LONG BEEN PUSHING STUDENTS TO GO TO COLLEGE AFTER HIGH SCHOOL.  HOWEVER, REALISTICALLY, NOT ALL STUDENTS ARE DESTINED TO BE SUCCESSFULLY COLLEGE BOUND. IN A TIME WHEN SCHOOLS ARE  CONSOLIDATING OR CANCELLING VOCATIONAL CLASSES IN HIGH SCHOOL AND  FORCING MANY STUDENTS TO SEEK PATHS TOWARD 4-YEAR COLLEGE DEGREES, SOCIETY REALLY NEEDS TO RETHINK WHAT WE REALLY NEED IN  THE WORKFORCE TO MAKE IT MOVE FORWARD." THAT'S FROM LINDA PUGH, IN CABOOL, MO. LINDA, THIS IS A HUGE TOPIC, SO I WILL TACKLE ONE ASPECT TODAY AND  REVISIT THE SUBJECT LATER. WHILE YOUR CONCERNS ABOUT THE EMPHASIS ON 4-YR DEGREES IS CERTAINLY VALID, ALMOST EVERY STUDY  TO DATE HAS REINFORCED THE SO-CALLED COLLEGE PREMIUM. COLLEGE  GRADUATES, ON AVERAGE, EARN ABOUT A MILLION DOLLARS MORE OVER THEIR CAREER THAN NON-GRADUATES. BUT AVERAGES CAN BE  DECEPTIVE. THIS CHART SHOWS HOW THE ANNUAL EARNINGS VARY OVER  TIME. THIS INFORMATION IS FROM THE BEST STUDY I HAVE SEEN <HTTPS://WWW.THIRDWAY.ORG/REPORT/IS-COLLEGE-WORTH-IT-GOING- BEYOND-AVERAGES> BY DOUGLAS WEBBER. HE ADDS IN THE  DRAWBACKS OF COLLEGE EXPENSE, THE RISK OF NOT GRADUATING, AND  CHOICE OF MAJOR. WHEN YOU FACTOR IN A 60% GRADUATION RATE AFTER SIX-YEARS FOR A 4-YEAR DEGREE, AS WELL AS THE COST OF THE COLLEGE  DEGREE, THE RISK OF PAYING OFF THE COSTS AND TIME ARE STILL  CONSIDERABLY BETTER THAN NON-COLLEGE GRADUATES, BUT NOT A SLAM DUNK EITHER.  NOW LOOK AT THE VARIOUS MAJORS AND THE OUTCOMES. STEM  (SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, ENGINEERING AND MATH) GRADUATES UNSURPRISINGLY DO BETTER THAN OTHER MAJORS, BUT COST OF COLLEGE  DRIVES THOSE CHANCES OF SUCCESS DOWN AS WELL. THE BOTTOM LINE  IS WE'RE PUSHING KIDS INTO COLLEGE, FOR BETTER OR WORSE, BECAUSE ON AVERAGE IT PAYS OFF. ON AVERAGE. THAT SAID, STUDIES LIKE THESE ARE BACKWARD LOOKING - THEY SHOW  THAT GOING TO COLLEGE HAS BEEN A GOOD IDEA, IF YOU DON'T PAY TOO MUCH, GRADUATE, AND PICK A VIABLE MAJOR.  THE BIG QUESTION,  WHICH I'LL TACKLE NEXT WEEK WHEN I LOOK AT THE FUTURE OF JOBS, IS  WILL THIS BE THE CASE IN THE GOING FORWARD, OR ARE WE LOOKING AT A  DIFFERENT CAREER ATMOSPHERE FOR WHICH OUR EDUCATIONAL SYSTEM IS  NOT PREPARED. THANKS, JOHN.  IF YOU HAVE A QUESTION OR COMMENT EMAIL JOHN AT  MAILBAG AT U-S FARM REPORT DOT COM. UP NEXT, VIEWER PHOTOS. 

FROM THE FARM
WELCOME BACK. WELL TIME FOR FROM THE FARM MIKE I FEEL LIKE I HAVEN'T SEEN YOU IN MONTHS. IT HAS BEEN A WHILE. I THINK IT'S BEEN A MONTH HAS BEEN A WHILE. WELL YOU'VE BEEN GONE. I'VE BEEN HERE. NO THAT'S TRUE. I'VE BEEN ON THE ROAD. BUT THIS IS NICE. NICE TO BE BACK. WELL THIS IS IN ARKANSAS THE LATEST CROP PROGRESS REPORT SHOWS HARVEST IS ALREADY BEHIND IN THE STATE. AND LOOK HOW MUCH RAIN THEY RECENTLY HAD SOYBEAN HARVESTS IN THE STATE. USDA SAYS TRAILING AVERAGE BY NINE POINTS. SO MUCH RAIN THERE. YEAH. WALLACE SENDING US SOME PHOTOS THIS WEEK AS WELL HE SAID HARVEST WAS GOING GREAT. RICE YIELDS WERE EXCELLENT. THEN THE WEATHER FLIPPED. RICE'S FLATTENED HURTING YIELDS AND THE QUALITY HAS HURT THE CROP. THE SOYBEAN AND COTTON QUALITY HAS DROPPED AS WELL. THAT'S AS A HEAVY BLANKET OF HUMIDITY JUST WOULDN'T BUDGE IN THE DELTA THIS WEEK. SO MUCH RAIN IN ARKANSAS. WELL CHECK OUT THIS PICTURE. WE RECEIVED THIS AND HE SAID HIS MOM HAS RUN THE GRAIN CART AROUND HERE ALMOST 100 PERCENT OF THE TIME SINCE HIS BROTHER PASSED AWAY IN 1999 AND SHE DIDN'T WANT TO STAY IN THE HOUSE HERSELF. BUT TONIGHT FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER THIS WEEK HER GRANDDAUGHTER WAS ON BOARD HOW TO SEE WITH THE HASH TAG HARVEST 18 ON TWITTER. WELL I'VE SEEN DIFFERENT REACTIONS. WE KNOW THAT THERE ARE SOME FARMERS THAT JUST GET PUMMELED WITH SOME OF THAT RAIN THAT JUST WON'T LET UP YOU KNOW AREAS THAT NEEDED THE RAIN THE SUMMER NOW OR GETTING IT WHEN THEY DON'T REALLY NEED THE RAIN. I KNOW YOU HAD YOUR 90 DAY. DO YOU SEE THAT CHANGING. I STILL SEE SYSTEMS COMING ACROSS THE COUNTRY. MORE THAN LIKELY AS WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST PART OF FALL BY THE END OF FALL I DO KIND OF SEE COLDER DRIER AIR COMING INTO A LOT OF THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY OR COLDER INTO WINTER WHICH IS PRETTY MUCH ALWAYS THE CASE. BUT COLDER THAN COLDER THAN NORMAL BECAUSE OF WHAT WE'RE TALKING YES LET'S JUST STATE THAT. ALL RIGHT IF YOU HAVE A PICTURE OR A VIDEO YOU WOULD LIKE TO SEND AND YOU CAN DO THAT TO THE ADDRESS ON THE SCREEN. 

CLOSE
AND FOR ALL OF US AT US FROM REPORT ON MIKE HOFFMAN AND I'M TIME WARNER AND THANK YOU FOR WATCHING. BE SURE TO JOIN US AGAIN RIGHT HERE NEXT WEEK AS WE WORK TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND EVERYONE.

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Larry Scott
Austin, TX
9/29/2018 09:14 PM
 

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Larry Scott
Austin, TX
9/29/2018 09:15 PM
 

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