USFR Weekly Recap - September 8-9, 2018

September 8, 2018 03:30 AM
 

TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
SEPTEMBER 8-9, 2018

HEADLINES

WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M TYNE MORGAN, AND HERE'S WHAT'S IN STORE OVER THE NEXT 60  MINUTES. TRADE AID MAY BE DRIVING AN IMPROVEMENT IN  PRODUCERS' SENTIMENTS ACROSS THE COUNTRY.  FIGHTING FOR THE FARM BILL, ONE SENATE LEADER  CALLING ON COMPROMISE.  <WE ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE FINISH LINE, BUT WE  STILL HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO, QUITE FRANKLY A  LOT OF COMPROMISE THAT REMAINS TO BE DONE> FROM THE SENATE FLOOR TO COLORADO FARM FIELDS,  INTERST IN HEMP IS GROWING...  < WE TRIPLED OUR ACREAGE THIS YEAR. > HOW THE FARM BILL COULD NOT ONLY CHANGE THE  PERCEPTION BUT THE PRODUCTION OF GROWING  HEMP. AND IN JOHN'S WORLD <HOW'S THE SOYBEAN CROP? DON'T ASK ME > 

NEWS
NOW FOR THE NEWS, THOSE LOOKING FOR SOME FINANCIAL RELIEF FROM TRADE FALLOUT CAN NOW  SIGN UP FOR AID. BUT IT'S THAT AID DRAWING  SCRUTIINY, AS GROUPS ARE ASKING FOR MORE  TRANSPERCY FROM USDA ON HOW THOSE PAYMENT  FIGURES WERE CALCULATED.  IT'S DUBBED THE MARKET FACILITATION PROGRAM.  AND NOW THE NATIONAL CORN GROWERS ASSOCIATION  AND THE NATIONAL WHEAT GROUERS ARE ASKING USDA TO SHARE MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE METHODOLOGY OFFICIALS USED TO DETERMINE THOSE  PAYMENT. THE GROUPS AREN'T THRILLED ABOUT THE PAYMENT  RATES FOR THEIR PRODUCERS-- WHICH IS A PENNY PER  BUSHEL FOR CORN AND SEVEN CENTS PER BUSHEL FOR  WHEAT. ALAN BRUGLER OF BRUGLER MARKETING TELLING ME  THAT WHEN YOU LOOK AT CORN PRICES TODAY, IT'S  EASY TO SEE WHY PRODUCERS ARE FACING LOW PAYMENT RATES. <THE REASON CORN DIDNT' GET IT, THE REASON WE ONLY GOT A PENNY  WAS CORN CASH PRICES ARE ACTUALLY FOLKS, 14 CENTS ABOVE LAST YEAR AS OF YESTERDAY, 14 CENTS ABOVE, BASIS IS 3 CENTS HIGHER, EXPORTS  SALES ARE 7 PERCENT HIGHER, THAT'S WHY USDA DIDN'T WANT TO GIVE  YOU ANYTHING ON CORN. > BRUGLER SAYS BEANS, HOWEVER, ARE FACING CASH  PRICES MROE THAN A DOLLAR LOWER THAN THIS TIME  LAT YEAR.  ALSO, THE ENVIRONMENTAL WORKING GROUP SAYS IT  ALREADY FILED A FOIA REQUEST, SEARCHING FOR  DOCUMENTS THAT HELP CLEAR UP HOW THE PAYMENTS  WERE DETERMINED. THE GROUP IS ASKING FOR  RELEVAT EMAILS, TEXTS MESSAGES, MEETING LOGS  AND MORE.  WHILE DEBATE IS BREWING, USDA SAYS THE 4 POINT 7  BILLION DOLLARS OF TARIFF AID WILL BE DISTRIBUTED  AFTER AN APLICATION PROCESS.  REMEMBER, THE PAYMENTS FOR MOST CROPS WILL BE  BASED ON ACTUAL PRODUCTION NUMBERS. TO SIGN UP OR SEE IF YOU QUALIFY, VISIT FARMERS  DOT GOV AND CLICK ON THE MANAGE TAB. DETAILS ARE  UNDER THE MARKET FACILITATION PROGRAM. YOU CAN ALSO SIGN UP AT YOUR LOCAL F-S-A OFFICE.  THE TRADE AID PACKAGE MAY BE LEADING TO AN  UPTICK IN PRODUCER SENTIMENTS. THAT'S ACCORDING  TO THE LATEST READING FROM PURDUE AND CME AG  ECONOMY BAROMETER.  THE BAROMETER READING INCREASED THIS MONTH TO  ONE-29 FOLLOWING A SIGNIFICANT DROP FOR THE  MONTH OF JULY.  PURDUE ECONOMISTS SAY THE SHIFT IN SENTIMENT IS  PRIMARILY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN PRODUCER'S  PERCEPTION OF CURRENT CONDITIONS. PURDUE COLLECTED SURVEY RESPONSES FROM  FARMERS IN MID-AUGUST, AFTER USDA OUTLINED THE  ASSISTANCE PACKAGE IN GENERAL TERMS, BUT PRIOR  TO DETAILS COMING OUT ON HOW PAYMENTS WOLD BE  ALLOCATED.  <ONE OF THE QUESTIONS WE POSED WAS ALONG THE LINES OF ASKING  PEOPLE WHETHER OR NOT THE RELIEF PLAN PROPOSED BY THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION WOULD RELIEVE THEIR CONCERNS ABOUT THE IMPACT OF  TARIFFS ON FARM INCOME. AND 47 PERCENT OF THE PEOPLE IN THE  SURVEY SAID THAT THEY THOUGHT THE RELIEF PLAN WOULD EITHER SOMEWHAT OR AT LEAST PARTIALLY RELIEVED THEIR CONCERNS. AND I  THINK THAT PROBABLY DROVE THE INCREASE IN THE CURRENT CONDITION  INDEX AND IN TURN THE IMPROVEMENT IN THE BAROMETER. 0> THE SURVEY SHOWS PRODUCERS ARE STILL  CONCERNED ABOUT A TRADE WAR, BUT THEY WERE  SOMEWHAT LESS CONCERNED IN AUGUST THAN THEY  WERE IN JULY.  STATE FARM BUREAU PRESIDENTS MEETING WITH BOTH  PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP AND VICE PRESIDENT MIKE  PENCE OVER CHALLENGES FACING AGRICULTURE  TODAY.  FARM BUREAU SAYS THE LEADERS EXPRESSED THEIR  CONTINUING CONCERNS OVER TRADE AND THE  FINANCIAL WOES BEING CREATED BY TARIFFS AND  RELATED TRADE BARRIERS.  <WHEN WE GET INTO HARVEST ADN COMBINES ARE ROLLING AND THE  CHECK COMES FOR A LESSER AMOUNT THAN WHAT WE TOLD THE BANKER  IT WAS GOING TO BE, I SAID THAT'S GOING TO BE A PROBLEM FOR SOME  FOLKS> OVERALL,FARM BUREAU  LEADERS WALKED AWAY WITH  A SENSE OF OPTIMISM WHEN IT COMES TO THE FUTURE  OF TRADE.  <AFTER THE MEETING TODAY I FEEL MORE POSITIVE WHEN IT COMES TO  THE TRADE ISSUES. I MAEN, WE KNWO THERE'S STILL WORK TO BE DONE,  BUT WITH THE MEXICO DEAL PRETTY MUCH DONE, WE GOT A STRONG  INDICATION TODAY THAT THEY THINK CANADA WILL BE IN LINE, RIGHT ALONG WITH MEXICO, THEY EVEN MENTIONED EUROPEAN UNION, JAPAN, AND  POSSIBLY EVEN CHINA IN THE NOT TOO DISTANCE FUTURE. > SPEAKING OF NAFTA, USDA SECRETARY SONNY PERDUE  SAYIGN THIS WEEK HE'S OPTIMISTIC KEY NEGOTATERS  WILL REACH A DEAL ON NAFTA, BUT STRESSED THE U-S  AND MEXICO ARE PREPARED TO MOVE FORWARD  WITHOUT CANADA.    WHILE NO NAFTA DEAL WAS REACHED THIS WEEK,  CANADIAN PRIME MINSTER JUSTIN TRUDEAU SAYING  TEH COUNTRY MAY BE OPEN TO DAIRY PLICY CONCENSIONS... BUT THAT HINGES ON CANADA GETTING SOMETHING IN RETURN. TRUDEAU DID SAY HE'LL WALK AWAY FROM A DEAL IF  IT'S BAD FOR CANADA.  TIME IS RUNNING OUT FOR CONGRESS TO NEGOTIATE A  NEW FARM BILL. THAT'S AS TEH NUMBER OF  CONGRESSIONAL DAYS TO GET A 2018 FARM BILL BY  THE SEPTEMBER 30TH DEADLINE IS NOW IN THE SINGLE  DIGITS.  <WE ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE FINISH LINE, BUT WE  STILL HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO, QUITE FRANKLY A  LOT OF COMPROMISE THAT REMAINS TO BE DONE>  THE 56 FARM BILL CONFEREES MEETING FOR THE FIRST  TIME WENDESDAY WITH THE KEY THEME BEING COMPROMISE.  IT'S COMPRIMISE THAT HOUSE AG COMMITTEE  CHAIRMAN MIKE CONAWAY OFFERED UP LAST WEEK.  WHILE NO DETAILS WERE MADE AVAILABLE, HE CALLED  IT SIGNIFICANT COMPROMISES TO THE SUPPLEMENTAL NUTRITION ASSITANCE PROGRAM- OR SNAP.  WASHINGTON CORRESPONDANT JIM WIESEMEYER  REPORTING THAT A COMPROIMSE WAS BREWING, BUT  THEN IT HIT A SNAG WITH MAJOR DISAGREEMENTS  OVER CONAWAY'S PROPOSAL NOT GOING FAR ENOUGH.    BUT CONGRESS WILL NEED TO PULL BIPARTSAN  SUPPORT TOGETHER QUICKLY TO GET A FARM BILL DONE.  A PORTION OF THE FARM BILL HAS FUNDING DEDICATED  TO ANIMAL DISEASE RESEARCH. AND IT'S ONE DISEASE  SPRADING ACROSS CHINA, NOW HITTING CHINA'S  SECOND LARGEST CITY. AFRICAN SWINE FEVER IS HURTING CHINA'S HOG HERD,  WITH FOUR NEW CASES FOUND IN ONE DAY.  THE NUMBER OF OUTBREAKS IS IN THE DOUBLE DIGITS,  AND  CHINA'S AGRICULTURE MINISTRY SAYS IT'S  BANNING THE TRANSPORTATION OF LIVE HOGS IN  AFFECTED PROVINCES.  OFFICIALS ARE CONCERNED OVER HOW SPEEDY THE  DISEASE IS SPREADING AND BACK TO WASHINGTON, WHAT DO YOU DO WHEN A  PROTESTER INTTERUMPTS A HEARING? WELL, IF YOU'RE  A FORMER AUCTIONEER WHO NOW IS IN CONGRESS, YOU LET YOUR INSTICTS TAKE OVER. <JACK DORSEY IS TRYING TO INFLUENCE HTE ELECTION, TO SWAY THE  ELECTION .......> <3 AND A QUARTER, AUCTION SOUND... WE'RE SELLIGN THE CELLPHONE THERE... AUCTION SOUND... I YIELD BACK>  PRICELESS. I MAY HAVE TO USE THAT TECHNIQUE  DURING DISAGREEMENTS WITH MY HUSBAND.. OR  COWORKERS.  

TEASE
STILL TO COME, IT'S BEEN A DELUGE OF RAIN IN MANY  AREAS OF THE COUNTRY THIS WEEK, BUT COULD  ROUND 2 BE IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK? MIKE HOFFMAN  JOINS US FOR WEATHER NEXT.  

WEATHER
MIKE, THERE CAN BE TOO MUCH OF A GOOD THING. AND  APPARENTLY WHEN IT COMES TO THE WEATHER, THAT  MAY BE RAIN.. IT'S BEEN A DELUGE FOR MANY AREAS  THIS WEEK. YEAH TYNE ISN'T THAT ALWAYS THE CASE. HERE WE HAVE THESE DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN PLACES IN THE MIDWEST AND WE ARE GOING TO SEE HUGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN. IT'S STILL ONGOING RIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND THROUGH PARTS OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SO HAVE TO CHECK YOUR LOCAL FORECAST FOR THAT WHEN WE'RE GOING TO LOOK AT THE LONGER RANGE HERE DROUGHT MONITOR STILL SHOWING AS OF THIS PAST WEEK SOME TREMENDOUS DROUGHTS IN PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSOURI NORTHEASTERN KANSAS. YOU KNOW WHAT THOUGH THAT WHOLE AREA HAS SHRUNK PARTS OF TEXAS. THAT AREAS SHRUNK AS WELL. SO LET'S GO BACK A MONTH AND YOU CAN SEE THERE IS A LOT MORE RED FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO TEXAS AS WE'VE GONE THROUGH THE PAST MONTH. THINGS HAVE ACTUALLY IMPROVED IN MOST OF THAT AREA. IT HAS NOT IMPROVED EVERYWHERE THOUGH OREGON. YEAH YOU'RE GETTING WORSE IS GETTING DRIER THERE THERE'S DRIER SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALL RIGHT LET'S GO TO THE WEATHER AS WE LOOK AT THE JET STREAM WHAT YOU'RE GOING TO NOTICE IS THERE'S LITTLE RIPPLES IN THE JET STREAM ITSELF. BUT THERE IS THERE'S A BIG RIDGE IS GOING TO KIND OF KEEP THINGS WARMING UP IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. WATCH THIS LITTLE CIRCLE RIGHT THERE. THAT'S OUR COMPUTER MODELS SHOWING THE REMNANTS OF FLORENCE KIND OF SKIRTING THE EAST COAST LATER THIS WEEK AND THEN MOVING OFFSHORE AGAIN THAT'S KIND OF A STRANGE WEATHER PATTERN THERE BUT WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH THAT WHEN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK. 

SEAN ON THE WEATHER MAP I'M NOT CONFIDENT ON THE EXACT POSITION OF IT AS YOU WILL SEE TROUGH COMING IN OUT WEST THOUGH AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ALL RIGHT. DAY BY DAY AND SEE A COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT. COUPLE OF FRIENDS THERE IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF CANADA WITH SOME SHOWERS. OTHERWISE ON THE MILD SIDE ACROSS MOST OF THE CORN BELT YOU CAN SEE BY WEDNESDAY WE'RE GOING TO SHOW FLORENCE THERE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SOMEWHERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE NEXT FRONT KIND OF COMING EASTWARD. ANOTHER ONE COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HEADING THROUGH FRIDAY THEN THIS WHOLE FRONT STALLS OUT BECAUSE WHEN YOU HAVE A SITUATION LIKE THIS YOU HAVE A HURRICANE OFF THE EAST COAST EVERYTHING ELSE KIND OF COMES TO A HALT ACROSS THE COUNTRY. AND SO WE JUST HAVE TO WATCH FLORENCE AT THAT POINT BY THE END OF THE WEEK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MOST OF THE MIDWEST AND THE EAST. OTHERWISE BUT COOLER AIR COMING IN IN THE WESTERN STATES. HERE'S THE 30 DAY OUTLOOK FOR TEMPERATURES AN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES I BELIEVE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ALSO THEN FROM MICHIGAN EASTWARD. BELOW NORMAL THOUGH THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES THERE 30 TO OUTLOOK FOR PRECIPITATION. I'M GOING ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC BACK TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BELOW NORMAL FROM WESTERN MONTANA THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOST OF THE REST OF THE COUNTRY PROBABLY PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. TYNE. THANKS, MIKE. 

TEASE
AS THE TRADE PREPARES FOR HTE BIG  USDA REPORT NEXT WEEK, WE'LL  TRY TO GET YOU  READY, AS WELL. JEFF FRENCH AND ANGIE MAGUIRE  JOIN ME NEXT.  

ROUNDTABLE 1
WELCOME BACK. OUR MARKETING OUNDTABLE THIS WEEK YOU JUST AREN'T NEW TO THE PROGRAM. WELCOME. THANK YOU. AND WITH ANGIE SETZER IT'S BEEN A WHILE SINCE YOU'VE BEEN ON THE PROGRAM BUT WELCOME BACK. THANKS FOR HAVING ME. WELL A LOT OF NEWS THIS WEEK TO DIGEST AND ALSO LOOKING FORWARD TO NEXT WEEK. SO LET'S LOOK AT NEXT WEEK FIRST BECAUSE WE'RE USDA WILL RELEASE UPDATED CROP PRODUCTION WANTS THE NUMBERS. A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE ALREADY SPECULATING WHAT THAT COULD MEAN. WHAT ARE YOU WATCHING FOR THIS USDA REPORT TO COME NEXT WEEK.  OF COURSE I'M WATCHING YIELD, JUST BECAUSE THAT TENDS TO GRAB THE BULK OF THE ATTENTION WHEN IT COMES OUT THE ACTUAL PRODUCTION NUMBER THAT WE'RE LOOKING AT AND WE'VE SEEN RECENTLY THIS LARGE CONSOLIDATION OR THIS MOVE TOWARDS A CONSOLIDATED ANALYSTS ESTIMATE AND CORN SPECIFICALLY WHICH IS ALWAYS FUNNY TO ME BECAUSE YOU'LL SEE THIS HUGE WIDE RANGE IN AUGUST AND THEN SUDDENLY EVERYONE KIND OF GROUPS AROUND THE AUGUST USDA NUMBER. SO WE'RE LOOKING AT WHAT'S GOING ON THERE SEEMS TO BE MOST FOLKS ARE ANTICIPATING PERHAPS A SLIGHT DECLINE IN CORN PRODUCTION OR CORN YIELD. AND IN THAT REGARD SOYBEANS WILL DEFINITELY WANT TO PAY ATTENTION TO OBVIOUSLY THE JUMP WAS HUGE IN AUGUST FROM THE JULY UP TO THE AUGUST OUTLOOK. AND YOU KNOW IT KIND OF MAKES YOU WONDER IF WE ACTUALLY SEE THAT HAPPEN NOW AUGUST WEATHER DOES LOOK LIKE IT WAS CONDUCIVE TO SOME PRETTY AWESOME SOYBEAN PRODUCTION NUMBERS THERE BUT IT WILL DEFINITELY WANT TO SEE WHAT THE USDA HAS TO THINK AND THE BEST PART ABOUT THE SEPTEMBER NUMBER IS THEY'RE ACTUALLY OUT IN THE FIELD YOU KNOW GETTING A GOOD FEEL FOR YOUR WEIGHTS AND THINGS OF THAT NATURE RATHER THAN JUST USING POUNDS.  WELL JEFF ANDY YOU MENTIONED IT YOU KNOW A LOT OF THESE PRIVATE ESTIMATES COMING OUT SOME LOOKING FOR A SLIGHT DECLINE IN THE CORN OR CORN PRODUCTION SOME NOT. WHAT DO YOU EXPECT.  WELL YOU KNOW JUST WHAT WE'VE HAD HERE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS ON THE BEAN NUMBERS SPECIFICALLY THE TRADERS UNDERESTIMATED THE SEPTEMBER NUMBER. EVERY YEAR FOR THE LAST FIVE YEARS SO RIGHT NOW THE TRADE HAS GOT FIFTY TWO POINT TWO NATIONAL AVERAGE. YOU KNOW IF YOU PLUG THAT IN WITH THE ACRES THAT WE HAVE YOU'RE LOOKING AT PROBABLY 830 MILLION BUSHEL CARRY OUT 850 POTENTIALLY. WHERE DO WE GO WITH IT RIGHT NOW. YOU KNOW THAT IS THE QUESTION. YOU KNOW THE CORN NUMBER LOOKS TO BE DECREASED A LITTLE BIT. WE'LL HAVE TO SEE THAT. BUT YOU KNOW I TEND TO AGREE THAT BIG CROPS GET BIGGER.  SPEAKING OF CORN EXPORTS THOUGH WE'VE SEEN IMPRESSIVE EXPORTS AND YOU LOOK AT THE JULY RECORD CORN EXPORTS I MEAN DO YOU THINK THAT THAT WILL IMPACT THE BALANCE SHEET HERE IN SEPTEMBER. IT MAY NOT.  IN SEPTEMBER THE USDA TENDS TO BE A LITTLE BIT CONSERVATIVE ON THEIR OUTLOOK. NOW THE POTENTIAL IS THERE BUT MOST FOLKS ARE KIND OF ANTICIPATING SOME SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO OLD CROP CARRY OUT DUE TO THE INCREASED DEMAND THAT WE SAW VIA ETHANOL AND EXPORTS AT THE END OF THE MARKETING YEAR. THIS POINT IN TIME JUST BASED ON ANALYSTS OUTLOOK YOU KNOW THAT TRADE AVERAGE GAS GOING INTO IT. MOST FOLKS AREN'T REALLY ANTICIPATING A BIG EXPORT NUMBER WE HAVE SEEN SOLID SALES DEFINITELY BUT A LOT OF TIMES THE USDA TENDS TO WAIT AND SEE A LITTLE BIT MORE WHEN IT COMES TO MAKING BIG ADJUSTMENTS OR AT LEAST THAT USED TO BE THE TREND. OBVIOUSLY THIS PAST SUMMER THERE'S BEEN A LITTLE BIT DIFFERENT. SO IT'S A LITTLE BIT OF A WILD CARD GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.  YOU KNOW SHE MENTIONED THAT WE'VE SEEN EXPORT WE'VE SEEN THESE IMPRESSIVE EXPORTS YET. WHY ISN'T THAT ENOUGH BULLISH FUEL FOR THE CORN MARKET. WHY IS THE CORN MARKET NOT LOOKING AT THE EXPORTS IN THAT WAY SIMPLY BECAUSE WE HAVE PLENTY OF IT.  AND YOU KNOW IF THE BEANS ARE GOING TO MOVE LOWER FROM HERE WHICH YOU KNOW I THINK IT COULD POSSIBLY MOVE LOWER HERE. YOU KNOW IT'S GOING TO BE IF THE CORN CAN DIVORCE ITSELF FROM IT YOU KNOW EVERY TIME YOU GET A 10 OR 15 CENT POP IN THIS CORN PRICE YOU OUGHT TO BE LOOKING TO HAVE SOME HERE BECAUSE YOU KNOW WE ARE GOING IN SEASONALLY WHERE YOU SEE PRICES TEND TO MOVE LOWER. AND YOU KNOW WE'LL HAVE TO SEE IF THAT HAPPENS AGAIN TODAY REALLY QUICKLY. ANGIE DO YOU THINK THAT. CORN CAN DIVORCE ITSELF FROM SOYBEAN. IT'S GOING TO BE DIFFICULT BECAUSE THERE'S A LOT OF IDEA THAT WE'RE GOING TO SEE A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CORN PLANTINGS NEXT SPRING. I THINK A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE ABANDONING THE FACT THAT THE WHEAT PRICE WAS SIX DOLLARS AT THE START OF AUGUST AND A LOT OF FOLKS MADE THEIR DECISION THERE YOU COULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT SWING I THINK IN WHEAT PLANTINGS THIS FALL AS A RESULT OF THAT THEY COULD TAP INTO SOME OF THAT CORN ACREAGE INCREASE. AND I THINK A LOT OF GUYS FOCUS ON ROTATION AND OTHER THINGS SO THEY'RE THERE. I THINK IT COULD DIVORCE ITSELF BUT WE DEFINITELY HAVE TO KIND OF ABANDON THAT IDEA THAT FARMERS ARE ONLY FOLLOWING THE MONEY. 

 WELL ANGIE MENTIONED A WEEK AND WE SAW QUITE SOME EVENTFUL THINGS HAPPEN IN WHEAT THIS WEEK SO WE'LL DIGEST THAT WHEAT MARKET WHEN WE COME BACK WITH OUR ROUNDTABLE. 

 PLUS WE'LL LOOK AT THESE ADDITIONAL TARIFFS THAT THE PRESIDENT COULD BE THREATENING CHINA WILL BE ALL THAT AND MORE NEXT MAREKTING ROUNDTABLE. 

JOHN’S WORLD
AS WE TALKED ABOUT IN THE ROUNDTABLE, ESTIMATES ARE ROLLING IN OF A BOUNTIFUL BEAN CROP THIS  YEAR. BUT SOYBEAN YIELDS ARE A TRICKY ONE TO  PREDICT. HERE'S JOHN PHIPPS.  WELL YOU CAN SEE BEHIND ME ARE SOYBEANS ARE HURLING  TOWARD MATURITY. AND ONE OF THE PROBLEMS YOU HAVE WITH GROWING  SOYBEANS IS THEY ARE IN THE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT CROP TO ESTIMATE  BY GOING OUT AND SCOUTING THAT'S SWIER THE PROFARMER THE FARM  JOURNAL CROP YOU'RE JUST SIMPLY COUNTS PODS DOES NOT COME UP WITH A BUSHEL TO THE ACRE FORECAST. IT'S JUST REALLY HARD TO TELL. PART  OF THEIR REASON. IS THIS SOMETHING THAT HAPPENS EVERY YEAR HAS  THE SOYBEANS GO INTO SENESCENCE BEGIN TO DIE WHEN SOYBEANS ARE STILL KILLING THEIR PAZAR OR EVEN BLOOMING. THEY'RE JUST BIG  GREEN BUSHY PLANTS. BUT AS THE PODS BEGIN TO FORM AND FILL OUT  THE LEAVES ARE ALSO SHRINKING AND DYING ON HER OWN. AND SUDDENLY THERE YOU REACH A POINT WHERE PODS START LEAKING OUT.  WHEN YOU DRIVE DOWN ALONG THE ROAD OR EVEN WALK BY AND AS  THESE PODS BEGIN TO APPEAR I FIND MYSELF SAYING WOW THERE LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF PODS. THIS COULD BE A REALLY GOOD CROP THEN  SOMETHING REALLY WEIRD HAPPENS BECAUSE AFTER ANOTHER THREE OR  FOUR DAYS OR EVEN A WEEK MORE LEAVES CHANGE COLOR AND FOR ALL FALL OFF MORE PODS SEEM TO APPEAR BUT SUDDENLY AS YOU LOOK  ACROSS YOU DON'T GET THE SENSE THERE ARE A LOT OF PODS. I THINK  THERE COULD BE ONE OF THREE THINGS HAPPENING HERE. FIRST OFF THE FIRST LEAVES TO FALL OFF ARE AT THE TOP WHERE THE PODS ARE SIX  SECONDS. IT COULD BE EITHER SOME KIND OF NATURAL CAMOUFLAGE THAT AS  THE LEAVES TURN YELLOW OR DARK AND APPLAUSE OR TURNING FROM  GREEN TO BROWN THEY JUST ARE HARD TO PICK OUT FROM THE  BACKGROUND AND SUDDENLY AREN'T NEARLY AS NOTICEABLE OR THIRD  AND I DON'T THINK WE CAN RULE THIS OUT.   SOYBEAN PODS COULD HAVE SOMEHOW ADOPTED SOME  FORBIDDEN ROMULAN CLOAKING TECHNOLOGY.   IT COULD BE MY FAVORITE CHOICE AT ANY RATE DURING THIS  PERIOD OF TIME I GO FROM THINKING HEY THE PODS ARE STARTING TO  SHOW UP TO BE A GREAT CROP TO SUDDENLY I CAN'T SEE THEM NEARLY  AS WELL. IT'S GOING TO BE A TERRIBLE CROP ARE NOT VERY GOOD AT LEAST  UNTIL FINALLY YOU REACHED THE POINT WHERE THERE'S NOTHING BUT STEM  AND PODGY YOU CAN GET SOME IDEA OF WHAT THEIR CROP LOOKS LIKE.  MUCH FOR ALL CORN SOYBEAN SIZE CAN CHANGE THAT A LOT TOO.   THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE REALLY DON'T KNOW AND HAVE NO  GOOD WAY OF PREDICTING WHAT THAT YIELDS IS GOING TO BE UNTIL THE  COMBINE ROLLS.  BUT WHAT GETS ME AS I GO THROUGH THIS GOOD CROP BAD CROP  I DON'T KNOW WHOLE PROCESS EVERY YEAR. I MEAN EVERY SINGLE YEAR WHICH ONLY GOES TO PROVE THAT NOT ONLY CAN'T YOU TEACH AN OLD  DOG NEW TRICKS. YOU CAN'T GET THEM TO UNLEARN THEIR OLD TRICKS.  THANKS, JOHN.  STAY WITH US. MACHINERY PETE HAS TRACTOR TALES  NEXT.  

TRACTOR TALES
WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES FOLKS. THIS WEEK WE HAVE A  CLASSIC FARMALL 400 TO SHARE WITH YOU. CARL PAYNE PURCHASED THIS 1955 FARMALL A FEW YEARS AGO.  HIS  GRANDFATHER OWNED TWO JUST LIKE THIS, SO HAVING ANOTHER 400 BACK  ON THE FARM WAS A BLESSING. ITS A FARMALL 400.  THAT TRACTOR IS NEAR AND DEAR TO MY HEART. MY GRANDFATHER BOUGHT TWO NEW ONES IN 55. I WAS PROBABLY 10 YEARS  OLD. WHEN I STARTED DRIVING THEM EIGHT FOOT DISC AND ROLLER THEY  THINK CHILD ABUSE TODAY. WE LOVED IT. GRANDPA LOVED IT. THEN HE SPENT  A LOT OF HOURS WITH ME ON IT WENT TO THE FIELD WITH ME. AND THAT'S  ALL I'VE DONE ALL MY LIFE IS FARM. IT'S GONE TO MY OTHER GRANDDAUGHTER. SHE'S TURNED 16 IN ANOTHER YEAR AND SHE WANTS  THIS TRACTOR SO IT'S GOING TO BE HERS. WELL IT MEANS A LOT. I LIKE TO GO PLOW DAYS AND STEP OUT TAKE THIS  TRACTOR AND DRIVE IT. I DRIVE AROUND PARADES. I GET TO SHOWS. IT  REMINDS ME OF HIM AND FARM AT ALL. HE WAS HE LOVED THE FARM AND I DO TOO. YES IT'S BEEN COMPLETELY RESTORED ALL LEAKS HAS  BEEN OVERHAULED. NEW PAINT JOB AND NEWER TIRES, TIRES ARE GETTING WORN AGAIN BECAUSE WE STILL USE IT WE STILL USE IT AROUND ON THE FARM. THOSE FRONT WEIGHTS. THEY CALLED FRAME WEIGHTS. THEY'RE HARD TO  COME BY. I WAS LUCKY TO PICK UP A SET YOU JUST CANT HARDLY TO FIND THEM. AND. SO I HAD HIM ON ANOTHER TRACTOR AND I SOLD IT OFF AND PUT  THEM ON A TRACTOR SO KEEP THEM IN USE. AND PLOWING IT HELPS TO  HAVE SOME WEIGHTS TO HOLD IT DOWN. THANKS. IT'S CHANGING THE PERCPETIONS ABOUT A  CONTROVERSIAL CROP THAT WAS PART OF THE FARM  BILL TALK THIS WEEK.  

TEASE
UP NEXT, OUR FARM JOURNAL REPORT SHOWS YOU WHY THERE'S HIGH HOPES WHEN IT COMES TO GROWING HEMP. 

FARM JOURNAL REPORT
IT'S A CROP THAT PROPONENTS SAY IS MISUNDERSTOOD, AND IT'S TURNING OUT TO BE A CASH  CROP FOR THOSE VENTURING INTO THE FIELD, AT  TIMES REPLACING THE FADING ACRES OF TOBACCO IN  THE SOUTH.  NOW THE PERCEPTION IS TURNING TIDES.  IN THIS FARM JOURNAL REPORT, WE TELL YOU WHY  HEMP IS NOW AT THE CENTER OF THE FARM BILL  DEBATE, CREATING HIGH HOPES FOR HEMP.  CLIMBING THE ELEVATION OF COLORADO, COLORADO  FARMER TRAVIS HERGERT SAYS THE RISKS OF FARMING  HERE CAN BE HIGH.  < YES SO YOU KNOW THERE ARE A LOT OF REALLY UNIQUE CHALLENGES IN  THIS AREA AS FAR AS ELEVATION GROWING DAYS CLIMATE WATER AND JUST  URBAN SPRAWL. SO THERE'S REALLY A LOT OF UNIQUE CHALLENGES> UNIQUE CHALLENGES THAT ARE FORCING SOME  FARMERS TO VEER AWAY FROM TRADITION FARMING.  < WE'RE CONSTANTLY LOOKING FOR DIFFERENT CROPS THAT WE THINK CAN MEET SOME OF THOSE DIFFERENT SOME OF THOSE THOSE DIFFERENT  PARAMETERS. >IT'S ONE CROP THAT'S GROWING IN POPULARITY... AND  AT TIMES, DEFYING POPULAR OPINION.  < WE TRIPLED OUR ACREAGE THIS YEAR. > DAVID ASBURY IS GROWING HIS BUSINESS IN WHAT'S  NOW AN URBAN AREA, AS THE TOWNS OF  BOULDER AND LONGMONT COLRADO KEEP CREEPIGN IN. AND  HE'S DOING SO BY GROWING HEMP.  < THIS ONE IS IS YOU KNOW KIND OF CATCHING A SPOT IN MY HEART  BECAUSE YOU KNOW IT JUST IT WANTS TO GROW. AND GIVEN THE RIGHT  OPPORTUNITY AND A CHANCE TO PROVE ITSELF IT DOES VERY WELL I  BELIEVE. > IT'S A RESILIENT CROP AGRONOMICALLY... AND ONE THAT CAN COME WITH HIGH RETURNS. LOCAL GROWERS SAY ONE SEED COSTS AROUND A  DOLLAR 50 TO PLANT... AND SOME FARMERS STRIVE TO  PLANT 47 HUNDRED SEEDS PER ACRE.  < BUT ON THE BACK END THAT CROP CAN BE WORTH ANYWHERE FROM 90  DOLLARS TO A THOUSAND DOLLARS A PLANT. > < IF I HAD A MILLION POUNDS I WOULD BE I'D BE RIDICULOUSLY HAPPY. > AS MORE FARMERS VENTURE INTO THE FIELD OF HEMP,  DEMAND TODAY IS STILL OUTPACING SUPPLY.  < THE DEMAND IS ABSOLUTELY THERE AND THERE ARE CONTRACTS THAT  ARE BEING WRITTEN THAT I KNOW WON'T BE FILLED. SO THERE ARE. THE DEMAND IS DEFINITELY THERE. > HERGERT SAYS IT'S A CROP GIVING SOME FARMS NEW  LIFE...  < I MEAN THERE ARE GUYS THAT ARE REALLY HOPING TO SAVE THEIR FOUR  OR FIVE GENERATION FARMS BECAUSE OF THIS CROP. > AND IT'S THAT REVIVAL SENATE MAJORITY LEADER  MITCH MCCONNELL IS STRIVING TOWARD IN THE 2018  FARM BILL. A KENTUCY NATIVE, HE'S MADE IT CLEAR  THAT HE THINKS HEMP COULD HELP KENTUCKY FARMERS SURVIVE.  <NOW IT'S NO SECRET I'M EXCITED ABOUT PARTS OF HTE SENATE PASSED  BILL THAT CONCERN INDUSTRIAL HEMP I'D LIKE TO RECOGNIZE MY  COLLEAGUE CONGRESSMAN COMER OF WESTERN KENTUCKY WHO AS  COMMISSIONER OF AGRICULTURE BEFORE HE CAME TO CONGRESS WAS THE FIRST KENTUCKIAN TO TAKE A MAJOR LEAD ROLE IN WHAT HAS NOW  DEVELOPED INTO A NATIONAL CONSENSUS- I BELIEVE- TAHT INDUSTRIAL  HEMP DESERVES A COMBEBACK>  MCCONNELL DEFENDING HEMP IN THE FARM BILL  CONFERENCE MEETING THIS WEEK.. THE SENATE  LEADER ALSO NOTING HE APPOINTMENTED HIMSELF TO  THE CONFERENCE COMMITTEE, A TESTAMENT TO HOW  STRONGLY HE WANTS TO SEE HEMP LEGISLTAION SUCCEED.  <CONSUMERS WE ALL NOW HAS BEEN CONSUMING HEMP PRODUCTS FOR DECADES.. IT'S EVERYWHERE, IT'S JUST COMING FROM SOME OTHER  COUNTRY. IT'S PAST TIME THAT WE BUILD ON THE WORK WE BEGAN WITH  THE PALET PROGRAM IN THE 2014 FARM BILL AND UNLEASH FARMERS IN KENTUCY AND ANY OTHER STATE YOU REPRESENT, WITH PROPER  OVERSIGHT THEY CAN CAPITALIZE ON THIS MULTI BILLION DOLLAR MARKET> THE SENATE VERSION OF THE FARM BILL INCLUDES  FOUR KEY MEASURES FOR HEMP.  FIRST, IT LEGALIZES HEMP AS AN AG COMMODITY BY  REMOVING IT FROM TEH FEDERAL LIST OF CONTROLLED  SUBSTANCES.  IT GIVES STATES TEH OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME THE  PRIMARY REGULATORS OF HEMP PRODUCTION. THE LANGUAGE ALSO ALLOWS HEMP RESEARCHES TO  APPLY FOR FEDERAL GRANTS FROM USDA AND IT'S ALSO MAKES HEMP ELIGIBLE FOR CROP INSURANCE.  FOR HEMP GROWERS, IT'S A MOVE THAT REMOVE THE  STIGMA SURROUNDIGN HEMP PRODUCTION TODAY  < YOU KNOW MARIJUANA IS NOW LEGALIZED. AND WITH THAT HEMP  WHICH IS A DISTANT COUSIN TO MARIJUANA THAT DOESN'T HAVE THE THC  BUT HAS A LOT OF THE MEDICAL BENEFITS THAT HAS ALSO BEEN LEGALIZED  AND IT'S CLOSELY REGULATED BY THE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE  THROUGH THE STATE. > < IT'S BEEN DEMONIZED YOU KNOW FOR QUITE SOME TIME AND AS A  CONTAGION AND WHEN MY MOM FOUND OUT THAT I WAS DOING THIS YOU  KNOW SHE'S 83 YEARS OLD AND ALL SHE YOU KNOW IT. SHE GAVE ME THAT LOOK OF LIKE YOU KNOW KIND OF THAT THAT LOOK THAT PEOPLE GIVE  YOU WHEN THEY'RE LIKE KIND OF LIKE CONCERNED DISGUSTED AND  QUESTIONING YOUR SANITY.>  TODAY, 40 STATES HAVE DEFINED INDUSTRIAL HEMP AS  DISTINCT, AND REMOVED BARRIERS FOR ITS  PRODUCTION. BUT IT'S THE FEDERAL RESTRICTIONS  ASBURY WANTS TO SEE LIFTED.  YOU'VE GOT TO GET YOUR HEAD OUT OF THE SAND AND LOOK AROUND AND START RESEARCHING AND LET THE RESEARCH SHOW ITS WAY  THE ISRAELIS HAVE DONE A TREMENDOUS JOB. THEY'RE WAY AHEAD OF  US AND IT'S EMBARRASSING. AND QUITE HONESTLY THAT WE'VE JUST  STIFLED IT ONCE WE'VE DONE SO MUCH STIFLING IN OUR COUNTRY. WHILE THE POSSIBILITY OF LEGALIZING HEMP  PRODUCTION NATIONWIDE IS STILL ON THE HORIZON,  THE REALITY TODAY IS IT'S A TOUGH CROP TO GROW.  < IT'S VERY CHALLENGING. YOU DON'T JUST GO TO THE CO-OP AND BUY  YOUR SEED. THERE'S NO DEALER FOR THE SEED.>  IT'S NOT JUST FINDING THE SEED, BUT FILLING OUT THE  PROPER PERMITS TO GROW THE CROP.  <ALL OF THOSE DIFFERENT THINGS ARE OR ARE UNIQUE IN THAT WE DON'T  HAVE TO. WE DON'T WE DON'T NORMALLY DO THAT STUFF YOU KNOW WITH  CORONER OR PINTO BEANS OR ANY OF THE OTHER STUFF THAT WE'RE DOING.  WE DON'T THERE'S NOT QUITE AS MUCH ACCOUNTABILITY OR  RESPONSIBILITY. > HARVEST IS ALSO AN UPHILL CLIMB FOR THOSE JUST ENTERING THE BUSINESS...  < IT DOES REQUIRE A CERTAIN HARVESTING TECHNIQUE IN HAND  HARVESTING AND CURE JUST LIKE TOBACCO ALMOST WE'RE NOT SMOKING  IT BUT WE'RE WE'RE WE HAVE TO CURE IT PROPERLY OR IT IT'S NOT STORABLE. > ASBURY SAYS THE RISKS AND CHALLENGES ARE  PREVALENT, BUT IT'S A CROP HE'S GROWING FONDER  OF BY THE DAY.  <THERE'S A POSSIBILITY TO DECIDE TO BE A WONDERFUL MEDICINE. I  CONSIDER KALE A MEDICINE. EAT YOUR KALE BE HEALTHY EAT YOUR BEETS BE HEALTHY EAT OR LET US BE HEALTHY YOU KNOW EAT MORE  VEGETABLES BE HEALTHY. YOU KNOW. I LOOK AT THIS PLANT AND WHAT  I'M A I'M A BELIEVER.> AS HEMP PRODUCERS RALLY AROUND THE CROP, THEY  HOPE THE LEGAL BARRIERS ARE SOON BURIED.  AND IT'S CREATING HIGH HOPES OF HOW DEMAND COULD  SOON SOAR ASBURY SAYS HARVEST FOR HEMP RUNS THROUGH  SEPTEMBER ADN OCTOBER.  

TEASE
UP NEXT, OUR MARKETING DISCUSSION WITH JEFF FRENCH AND ANGIE MAGUIRE PICKS BACK UP. THAT'S  RIGHT AFTER THE BREAK.  

ROUNDTABLE 2
ALL RIGHT WELCOME BACK. WELL AS I PROMISED WE'RE GOING TO START OFF TALKING ABOUT WHEAT AND IT WAS A WILD WEEK FOR WHEAT STARTING OFF ON MONDAY HEARD FROM RUSSIA THAT THEY'RE NOT GOING TO LIMIT WHEAT EXPORTS SOMETHING KIND OF THAT THE TRADE HAD THEY HAD THOUGHT MAY HAPPEN BECAUSE OF SOME NEWS THEY DIDN'T. AND WE SAW WHEAT PRICES FALL TREMENDOUSLY ON MONDAY. DID THAT CARRY THROUGHOUT THE WEST REST OF THE WEEK IS THAT WHAT WEIGHED ON WHEAT PRICE.  YEAH I MEAN WE WERE DOWN YOU KNOW FOUR CONSECUTIVE DAYS MAKING YOU KNOW SEVEN WEEK LOWS. AND IF YOU LOOK AT FROM THE CHART STANDPOINT IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD GO PROBABLY ANOTHER 20 OR 30 CENTS MORE SPECIALLY WITH THE FUNDS BEING AS LONG AS THEY ARE IN. RIGHT NOW IT'S ESTIMATED THAT THEY'RE LONG STILL PROBABLY FORTY FIVE THOUSAND CONTRACTS SO THAT COULD DEFINITELY FUEL THE SO OFF COULD CONTINUE IN THE WEEK.  AT THE SAME TIME AS YOU MENTIONED IT LOOKING AT HIGHER WHEAT ACREAGE NEXT YEAR. WE'VE HEARD THE SAME THING SO FOR PRODUCERS THAT ARE PLANNING ON SOWING MORE WHEAT THIS COMING YEAR. WHAT CAN YOU DO AT THIS POINT WITH PRICE.  WELL YOU STILL LOOK AT THE FACT THAT WE'RE TRADING AROUND 550 WE WERE ON THE JULY SIDE OF THINGS WHICH HAS BEEN A GREAT HEDGING POINT FOR A LOT OF GROWERS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS. THE FACT REMAINS THAT A LOT OF FOLKS THAT MADE THE DECISION TO PLANT EXTRA WHEAT DID SO BECAUSE OF THE HIGHER PRICES AND ONE OF THE THINGS THAT I ALWAYS PUSH TO TO MY GROWERS IS THAT IF YOU'RE MAKING A DECISION BASED ON TODAY'S PRICE YOU WANT TO BE ABLE TO LOCK IN TODAY'S PRICE. SO I THINK THERE WAS A GOOD AMOUNT OF HEDGING THAT TOOK PLACE YOU KNOW AND TO BE COMPLETELY HONEST THE RUSSIAN STORY HAS NOT GONE AWAY. RIGHT NOW THEY ARE EXPORTING A RECORD PACE. BUT ANYONE THAT TRADES RUSSIAN CASH WHEAT IS TELLING YOU THEY'RE DOING IT TO GET AHEAD OF ANY POTENTIAL LIMITS TO EXPORTS THAT COULD COME INTO PLAY SOMETIME THIS WINTER. WHAT WE REALLY NEED TO BE PAYING ATTENTION TO AT THIS POINT IN TIME IS WHAT THE WEATHER FORECAST LOOKS LIKE WHICH HAD TURNED A BIT WETTER THIS WEEK WHICH HAD KIND OF WEIGHED A LITTLE BIT HEAVIER ON THE MARKET STRUCTURE SIMPLY BECAUSE THE THE RUSSIAN FARMER HAS TO HAVE THEIR WHEAT IN THE GROUND BY THE END OF SEPTEMBER IN ORDER TO GET HIS ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF THEIR WINTER. SO I WANT TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS THERE. YOU KNOW AND AS I SAID THE STORY HAS NOT GONE AWAY WE'RE DEFINITELY STILL PAYING ATTENTION TO WHAT'S TAKING PLACE IN AUSTRALIA AND THERE'S A LOT OF EXCITEMENT THAT COULD STILL COME BACK INTO THE WHEAT MARKET. BUT THERE'S BEEN A LOT THAT'S BEEN THERE. SO WE'RE KIND OF JUST DEALING WITH OVERALL EXHAUSTION ON THE BUY SIDE.  SPEAKING OF OF WHAT TO WATCH A SHORT TERM FRIDAY THE COMING PERIOD FOR INDEED FOR THE 200 BILLION DOLLARS WORTH OF TARIFFS AGAINST CHINESE GOODS THEN THE PRESIDENT THREATENING ANOTHER 267 BILLION DOLLARS WORTH OF TARIFFS ON MORE CHINESE GOODS. SO YOU'RE LOOKING AT 267 BILLION ON TOP OF THE OTHER 200 BILLION. IF THAT HAPPENS IF WE SEE THOSE GO AND PLAY WHAT HAPPENS TO SOYBEAN PRICES A KNEE JERK REACTION WILL BE TO SO OFTEN SELL OFF QUITE DRASTICALLY IN THE FIRST SUPPORT. I LOOK OUT IN THE NOVEMBER IS 26. IT'S A CONTRACT LOW AND IF YOU TAKE THAT OUT YOU'RE PROBABLY GOING TO GO DOWN TO THE PSYCHOLOGICAL LOYDE EIGHT DOLLARS AND SEE IF WE CAN HOLD THAT. YOU KNOW YOU HAVE THE LOW DOWN AT 776 THAT EVERYBODY IS KIND OF LOOKING AT. YOU KNOW I DON'T KNOW IF WE'LL SEE IF WE'LL GET DOWN THERE BUT YOU KNOW THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. I MEAN WE ARE HAVING A MAJOR MASSIVE CROP COMING IN HERE AND THE DEMAND RIGHT NOW IS PRETTY MUCH NONEXISTENT.  WELLIT SOUNDS LIKE NEXT WEEK COULD MAYBE NOT BE A VERY FRIENDLY WEEK FOR SOYBEANS. IT SOUNDS LIKE THE WORST STORM IF WE SEE THESE TERRORISTS GOING TO PLAY SOME OF THEM I'M NOT SAYING THE 267 BILLION BUT THAT THE 200 BILLION DOLLARS WORTH OF TARIFFS AND THEN ALSO SEE USDA COME OUT WITH WITH A HIGHER SOYBEAN YIELD OR HIGHER PRODUCTION NUMBER. THAT DOESN'T SEEM LIKE IT WOULD BODE WELL FOR THE SOYBEAN MARKET.  IT DOESN'T. BUT THE SOYBEAN MARKET KNOWS THIS. I MEAN THIS IS ALL STUFF THAT WE'VE ALREADY HAD EXTENSIVE CONVERSATIONS ABOUT THE CARRY OUT IT'S BEEN A 145 MILLION BUSHEL FOR FOUR WEEKS NOW. WE TESTED LOWS WE TRADED BACK HIGHER. THE REALITY IS AT THIS POINT IN TIME THE PRESIDENT'S BASICALLY LAYING ALL THE CARDS OUT HOPEFULLY YOU KNOW AT THIS POINT IN TIME IT IS THIS IS AS MASSIVE AS IT GETS YOU KNOW PERHAPS CHINA DOES COME TO THE TABLE. YOU KNOW I'M NOT NECESSARILY A FAN OF THE VOLATILITY OR THE UNCERTAINTY THAT'S COMING FROM IT. BUT YOU KNOW TO BE COMPLETELY HONEST IN MY OPINION THE BIGGEST WILDCARD OF COURSE IS WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN WITH THE AFRICANS BUYING FEVER THAT WE'RE SEEING. AND I THINK THAT BECOMES EVEN MORE OF A FOCAL POINT THAN PERHAPS EVEN THE CHINA TARIFF TALK. BUT THE MARKET AT THIS POINT IS IT KNOWS IT HAS AN IDEA OF WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN HERE I CAN GIVE YOU ONE REASON THAT THE MARKET GOES HIGHER AND THAT IS THAT WE RESOLVE THESE CHINESE ISSUES OVER THE NEXT MONTH AND GIVE YOU A 145 MILLION REASONS WHY IT MIGHT GO LOWER. BUT THE REALITY IS AT THIS POINT IN TIME TRADERS TEND TO BE IN IRAQ. AMAZINGLY A WAIT AND SEE PATTERN.  ANGIE MENTIONED AFRICA AFRICAN SWINE FEVER. AT THE SAME TIME YOU LOOK AT PORK EXPORTS WE HAVE PORK EXPORTS UP DESPITE THE MASSIVE TARIFFS THAT WE'RE SEEING IN MEXICO AND THAT WE'RE SEEING IN CHINA BEEF EXPORTS ARE ON RECORD PACE SO IT SEEMS LIKE THE LIVESTOCK MARKET RIGHT NOW HAS SOME FRIENDLY TO THE FRIENDLY DEMAND STORY THAT'S CONTINUING.  YEAH I MEAN THE AFRICAN SWINE FEVER FLU IS DEFINITELY A FRIENDLY STORY FOR EVERY PROTEIN IN THE WORLD. I MEAN IF THEY HAVE TO LIQUIDATE SOME OF THEIR HERD OR EVEN A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF THEIR HERD THEY WILL HAVE TO GO TO THE EXPORT MARKET. FOR THEIR PORK. SO IT IS DEFINITELY SALTED. AND ALSO THE PORK MARKET HAS BEEN DECLINING HERE IN THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS AND WE HIT A BOTTOM. WE'VE COME BACK ON THIS NEWS AND YOU KNOW POTENTIALLY WE COULD CONTINUE.  ALL RIGHT. WELL TO HEAR MORE OF A MARKETING DISCUSSION. MAKE SURE YOU CHECK OUT MARKETS NOW ON ATWEB.COM THANK YOU BOTH FOR JOINING US I APPRECIATE IT. STAY WITH US WE'LL HAVE MUCH MOREU.S. FARM REPORT WHEN WE COME BACK. 

BAXTER BLACK
FROM ONE COWBOY TO ANOTHER, BAXTER BLACK HAS A MESSAGE FOR ALL THE COWBOYS OUT THERE.   THERE'S A SPECIAL GROUP OF FOLKS IN THE CATTLE BUSINESS THAT THINK  BEYOND THE NEXT RAIN THE NEXT CALVING SEASON OR THE NEXT BANK  LOAN. THERE THE PUREBRED BREED THERE ACADEMICALLY MINDED AND  STUDIED BLOODLINES AND TRAITS LIKE EPD SCROTAL CIRCUMFERENCE AND  CABBING EASE. THEY'RE LIKE ASTROLOGERS LOOKING FOR NEW STARS IN  THEIR GENETIC SKY. AND THEN THEY PACKAGE THEIR SELECTED COMBINATION OF GENETICS INTO AN INDIVIDUAL LIVE BULL OR COW AND  OFFER THEM TO US CATTLE PRODUCER. GIVE US A CHOICE SO THERE'S  BOUND TO BE SOMEONE SOMEWHERE WHO HAS THE COW GENETICS  JUST FOR YOU. THERE'S A STRANGE GROUP OF PEOPLE WHO SPEAK IN  SACRED TONGUES. THEY GATHER IN CONVENTION HALLS AND REALLY  TESTOR.   AND TO THOSE ON THE OUTSIDE THEIR GOD LIKE IN THEIR WIVES AS THEY  TRY TO WIN A CONVERT WITH PASSION IN THEIR EYES. THEY BEGIN TO  SPEAK OF BLOODLINES OF COWS THEIR BULL HAS SIRED WAS EVANGELISTIC  REVERENCE. THEY TRULY ARE INSPIRED. RECOUNTING HER PERFORMANCE AND WEIGHT PER DAY OF AGE THEY RATTLE OFF HER RECORD RECITING PAY  JOAN PAGE HER PROGENY'S OUTSTANDING OR BIRTHWEIGHT SURE TO  PLEASE. SHE IS RANKED ABOVE AVERAGE IN RELATIVE CABBING IS NOW SHE MIGHT BE OR BRAMER GAIL MURPHY MAINTAINED JEW SALMON TELL  HER SANTA JUST TO NAME A FEW HERFORD. POLDER MEAGERLY OR SOME  FOREIGN SOUNDING NAME BUT IT DOESN'T MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE. THOSE ARE THE STORIES ALL THE SAME. THEY BREED THE PURE BRED  CATTLE KNOW THEIR COWS BY HEART AND THEY'LL TALK HERE DANG FOOL  LEG OFF IF YOU LET THEM START. I'VE GOT TO GIVE THEM CREDIT BECAUSE  RESTING IN THEIR HAND ISN'T A BLUEPRINT THE FUTURE PER COW  THROUGHOUT THE LAND. SO I'LL TRY AND LEARN THE BUSINESS AND CALL A BOBE BY NAME BUT I'VE MADE ONE OBSERVATION ABOUT PEOPLE IN  THIS GAME LISTENING TO THESE PUREBRED FOLKS MAKES ME THINK.  RIGHT NOW NEW DELHI IS NOT THE ONLY PLACE THEY HAVE A SACRED COW.  THIS IS BAXTER BLACK.  THANKS, BAXTER. TO HEAR MORE FROM BAXTER, VISIT  BAXTER BLACK DOT COM.  

TEASE
WHEN WE COME BACK, JOHN'S AGSPLAINER LAST WEEK RECEIVED TONS OF FEEDBACK. HE'S BACK THIS WEEK  WITH PART 2. 

CUSTOMER SUPPORT
IT'S LIKE TAKING A STEP BACK TO ECONOMICS CLASS.  LAST WEEK JOHN EXPLAINED WHAT TARIFFS ARE  DESIGNED TO DO. THIS WEEK, HE CONTINUES THE  AGSPLAINER, AS HE'S BACK WITH PART 2.  LAST WEEK I DEMONSTRATED HOW TARIFFS ARE JUST ANOTHER FORM OF TAXATION. THIS WEEK WE'LL LOOK AT HOW WELL TARIFFS ACCOMPLISH THEIR  POLICY GOALS. WHETHER THEY WORK - AND HERE'S A SPOILER: THEY  DON'T. STICKING WITH THE CHINA STEEL EXAMPLE, ONE REASON THE 25% TARIFF WON'T AFFECT MUCH FOR CHINA IS TO SEE HOW MUCH US BUYERS  MEAN TO CHINESE SELLERS. THE US MARKET IS THE LARGEST SINGLE  TRADE PARTNER FOR CHINA AS A WHOLE BUT IS STILL LESS THAN 1/5 OF THEIR TOTAL TRADE. IN STEEL, OUR BUSINESS IS A MINUSCULE PART OF  THEIR EXPORTS - LESS THAN HALF OF ONE PERCENT. MEANWHILE THE  RETALIATORY CHINESE TARIFF ON SOYBEANS COULD HAVE MORE IMPACT SINCE IT IS BY FAR OUR LARGEST EXPORT MARKET. IF THE GOAL IS TO SAVE JOBS WITH TARIFFS, WE HAVE EVIDENCE THAT DOESN'T HAPPEN. WE'VE BEEN THERE AND DONE THAT. BOTH OBAMA  AND GW BUSH ENACTED STEEL TARIFFS. HERE'S WHAT HAPPENED IN  2002 THROUGH 2004. JOBS CONTINUED TO DROP IN FACT, STEEL JOBS ARE DISAPPEARING EVEN AS STEEL OUTPUT SLOWLY CLIMBS IN THE US.  THE OVERRIDING REASON IS PRODUCTIVITY - IT SIMPLY TAKES A LOT FEWER  MAN HOURS PER TON OF STEEL. IF THE GOAL IS TO REDUCE THE TRADE DEFICIT, THAT DOESN'T SEEM TO BE  HAPPENING EITHER. IN FACT, THE BALANCE OF TRADE MADE ITS BIGGEST MONTHLY DECLINE IN 5 YEARS LAST MONTH. TO BE FAIR, IT IS TOO EARLY  TO JUDGE, BUT WE CAN SAY THE TREND IS UNFRIENDLY.  WHILE I FIND EVIDENCE AGAINST TARIFFS PERSUASIVE, INTERNATIONAL TRADE IS A SLIPPERY THING. FLOWS OF GOODS AND SERVICES ARE HARD  TO REDUCE DOWN TO ONE OR TWO CAUSES. THE LONG RUNNING DISPUTE  OVER TIRES FROM CHINA FOR EXAMPLE PROBABLY CAUSED A SURGE OF TIRES TO BE IMPORTED FROM VIETNAM AND KOREA. MANY OF OUR OWN  SOYBEAN FARMERS AND ANALYSTS THINK DESTINATIONS FOR BEANS WILL  JUST BE SHUFFLED.  THAT SAID, IT IS HARD TO FIND AN EXAMPLE OF A SUCCESSFUL TARIFF  ACTION SUCH AS WE NOW ARE USING, ESPECIALLY STEEL. TARIFFS DON'T  APPEAR TO EITHER SAVE JOBS OR REDUCE THE TRADE DEFICIT. NEXT WEEK WE'LL WRAP UP THE SERIES BY SHOWING HOW TARIFFS DIVIDE  US POLITICALLY. THANKS, JOHN. IF YOU HAVE QUSTIONS OR COMMENTS  FOR JOHN, JUST EMAIL HIM AT MAILBAG AT U-S FARM REPORT DOT COM.  WHEN WE COME BACK,  FROM TEH FARM PHOTOS.

FROM THE FARM
WITH TROPICAL STORM GORDON TARGETING ARKANSAS WITH HEAVY RAIN, FARMERS AND CROP RESEARCHERS  ALIKE WERE WORKING LONG HOURS TO BRING-IN THEIR  CROPS. AT THE UNIVERSITY OF ARKANSAS RICE  RESEARCH CENTER IN STUTTGART.  AND IT WAS "ALL HANDS" AND MACHINERY TO GET  THOSE RICE FIELDS CUT. THE CREW EVEN PULLED OUT THIS AGING INTERNATIONAL HARVESTER TO CUT A  SUSHI RICE VARIETY THAT THEY'VE BEEN TESTING. WELL, IT MAY BE HARVEST TIME IN OKLAHOMA, BUT WE  WANT TO RECOGNIZE THE PEACE LUTHERAN CHURCH IN  BESSIE, OKLAHOMA THIS WEEK. TI'S A CHURCH BORN IN  1893. THE CONGREGATION HAS HELD SERVICES IN  THREE BUILDINGS OVER THE PAST 125 EARS. AND IT'S  THE 125TH CELEBRATION THAT'S SET TO KICK OFF THE WEEKEND OF SEPTEMBER 22ND. OUR THANKS TO MICHAEL GOERINGER FOR SENDING THAT IN. AND MIKE, I HAVE SOME EXCITING NEWS. I'M GOING  BACK TO COLLEGE-- WELL, SORT OF. WE'RE KICKING  OFF THE U.S. FARM REPORT COLLEGE ROADSHOW NEXT  WEEK, THANKS TO DEKALB AND ASGROW AND  DELTAPINE. AGRITALK WILL BE THERE TOO. SO HERE  ARE THE DETAILS-- NEXT WEEK, WE'LL HAVE A LIVE  TAPING OF OUR SHOW ON FRIDAY, ON TEH CAMPUS OF TEXAS TECH. THEN, WE'RE OFF TO MY ALMA MATER OF  MIZZOU. WE'LL TAKE A SMALL BREAK THEN KICK THE  ROADSHOW OFF AT IOWA STATE OCOTBER 12TH. THEN,  WE'LL BE IN YOUR STOMPING GROUNDS OF PURDUE  THE FOLLOWIGN WEEK. SO COME OUT AND SEE US, SHOW US YOUR SCHOOL SPIRIT AND TALK MARKETS WTIH SOME OF THE LEADING  ECONMISTS IN THE COUNTRY.  IF YOU HAVE A PICTURE OF VIDEO YOU'D LIKE TO SEND  IN, SEND THOSE TO MAILBAG-AT-U-S-FARM-REPORT-DOT- COM OR CHECK US OUT ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER. 

CLOSE
FROM ALL OF US AT U.S. FARM REPORT, I'M MIKE HOFFMAN.  AND I'M TYNE MORGAN.  THANK YOU FOR WATCHING U-S FARM REPORT.  BESURE TO JOIN US RIGHT HERE AGAIN NEXT WEEK, AS  WE WORK TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION. HAVE A GREAT  WEEKEND, EVERYONE.  

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