USFR Weekly Recap - January 15-16, 2011

January 17, 2011 05:15 AM
 

THIS WEEK ON U.S. FARM REPORT
EPISODE #1953
JANUARY 15-16, 2011

JOHN’S OPEN: HELLO AND WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT, I'M JOHN PHIPPS. YA KNOW, NEARLY EVERY COMMODITY ANALYST IN THE GLOBE WAS PREDICTING A BULLISH FINAL PRODUCTION REPORT FROM THE USDA THIS WEEK, SO I HAD TO WONDER HOW IT COULD POSSIBLY MEET EXPECTATIONS. WE'LL SEE WHAT THE NUMBERS AND REACTIONS WERE IN A MINUTE, BUT THE INSTRUCTIVE POINT FOR ME IS THIS: THE IDEA I HAVE ANY INTUITIVE FEEL FOR THE MARKETS JUST BECAUSE I HAVE ACRES OF CROPS IS DUBIOUS. IN FACT, MY WORK MAY BE A HANDICAP WHEN IT COMES TO TRYING TO OUT-THINK ALL THE DIFFERENT PLAYERS NOW DABBLING IN COMMODITY TRADING. AS DONALD RUMSFELD PUT IT THERE ARE TOO MANY UNKNOWN UNKOWNS IN THIS WAR. RELEASED FIRST THING WEDNESDAY MORNING, HERE ARE HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE MUCH-ANTICIPATED SUPPLY AND DEMAND REPORT FROM THE USDA.

S&D REPORT: FOR CORN, CARRY-OVER HAS BEEN TRIMMED TO 745 MILLION BUSHELS...DOWN NEARLY 90-MILLION FROM A MONTH AGO. THIS EQUALS A STOCK-TO-USE RATIO OF 5.5%...THE LOWEST SINCE 1996. DESPITE THE SECOND LARGEST CROP ON RECORD, THE U.S. CARRY-OUT FOR SOYBEANS IS NOW 140-MILLION BUSHELS, DOWN 25 MILLION FROM DECEMBER. STRONG DEMAND FROM CHINA CONTINUES TO EAT AWAY AT SUPPLIES. ADD IT ALL UP AND IT APPEARS THE BATTLE FOR ACREAGE WILL BE FIERCE THIS SPRING.

ACREAGE IMPACT: A TOP ECONOMIST AT THE USDA BELIEVES THE BULL MARKET WILL CREATE MORE CROP ACREAGE IN 2011. SPEAKING AT THE AMERICAN FARM BUREAU CONVENTION IN ATLANTA, GERALD BANGE SAID AS MANY AS 10-MILLION MORE ACRES COULD COME INTO PRODUCTION THIS YEAR. FROM WHAT HE'S SEEN SO FAR, BANGE BELIEVES SOYBEANS COULD SEE THE BIGGEST SPIKE.

WHEAT UPDATE: MOVING NOW TO WHEAT - STOCKS AS OF THE FIRST OF DECEMBER TOTALED 1.9 BILLION BUSHELS - UP 8% FROM THE YEAR BEFORE. AT THE SAME TIME, USDA BELIEVES HIGHER EXPORTS WILL MORE THAN OFFSET A DIP IN FEED USE IN THE COMING MONTHS. EXTENSIVE REACTION AND ANALYSIS TO THE ENTIRE REPORT IS AVAILABLE AT www.agweb.com .

ROUNDTABLE: JIM BOWER, BOB UTTERBACK, AND BRIAN DOHERTY

JOHN’S WORLD: THIS WEEK'S NEWS WAS DOMINATED BY THE TRAGEDY IN TUCSON, AND RIGHTFULLY SO. BETTER WORDS THAN MINE HAVE CAPABLY ILLUMINATED WHAT THAT EVENT SAYS ABOUT OUR TIMES AND OUR CULTURE. BUT AS THE FRONT PAGE OR TOP NEWS LINK CONTINUES TO CHANGE IN RESPONSE TO PUBLIC ATTENTION, THE SECOND TIER OF NEWS HAS DEVELOPED AN ODDLY CONSISTENT FEATURE OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS: FLOODING SOMEWHERE IN THE GLOBE. FROM TENNESSEE TO PAKISTAN TO AUSTRALIA TO BRAZIL, RECORD FLOODS ARE PERSISTENT STORIES THESE DAYS. ARGUABLY THIS MAY BE SIMPLY BETTER GLOBAL REPORTING, BUT EVEN THEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE EVENTS ARE HISTORIC. FLOODING STORIES ALSO UNFOLD RELATIVELY SLOWLY, SO THE NEWS FROM AUSTRALIA BEGAN IN NOVEMBER WITH AN INTERRUPTED WHEAT HARVEST AND EXPANDED INTO CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE IN BRISBANE. NOW ADD IN ANOTHER OVERLOOKED STORY LAST WEEK: THE NATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION CONFIRMED THAT 2010 TIED 2005 AS THE HOTTEST YEAR ON RECORD. THESE TWO ITEMS ARE INTERLINKED. WARMER AIR HOLDS MORE MOISTURE. IN FACT, 2010 WAS ALSO THE WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD FOR GLOBAL PRECIPITATION. THIS IDEA IS SINKING INTO FARMER’S HEADS. CLIMATOLOGISTS AT PURDUE AND IOWA STATE HAVE BEEN DROPPING HEAVY HINTS ABOUT THIS TREND. IT COULD BE THAT JUST LIKE SPORTS, TECHNOLOGY, OR POLITICS, BEFORE LONG, OUR NEWS SOURCES WILL HAVE A SECTION DEVOTED TO FLOODS. 
LET US KNOW WHAT YOU THINK.... SEND EMAILS TO INFO@USFARMREPORT.COM OR CALL AND LEAVE US A VOICE MAIL.

2ND HALF:
JOHN’S OPEN:
HELLO AND WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT, I'M JOHN PHIPPS. FARMERS HAVE AN AMBIGUOUS RELATIONSHIP WITH THE ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY. ON THE ONE HAND WE ARE URGING THEM TO INCREASE THE ALLOWABLE MIX OF ETHANOL, EFFECTIVELY CREATING A LARGER MARKET FOR CORN BY REGULATION.  BUT WE SURE DON'T WANT THEM TO REGULATE OUR FARMS ANY MORE THAN THEY DO. WE HAVE A STORY TODAY ABOUT THE ONGOING EFFORTS TO IMPROVE THE WATER QUALITY IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. THE PROBLEM ENCOMPASSES NOT JUST FARMS, BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY MILLIONS OF PEOPLE WHO LIVE ON OUR DENSELY POPULATED EASTERN COAST. IT MUST BE CONFUSING FOR EPA REGULATORS TO PREDICT WHAT ATTITUDE TO EXPECT FROM THE NEXT FARMER THEY MEET. LET'S GET STARTED WITH THE HEADLINES.

CHESAPEAKE LAWSUIT: THE AMERICAN FARM BUREAU IS TAKING THE EPA TO COURT OVER PROPOSED NEW REGULATIONS FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED. EARLIER THIS MONTH EPA PUT SIX STATES IN THE REGION ON A NUTRIENT DIET. THE PLAN IS TO CALCULATE "TMDL'S" - OR TOTAL MAXIMUM DAILY LOADS FOR POLLUTANTS. THE END-GOAL IS TO REDUCE NITROGEN BY 25%, PHOSPHORUS BY 24% AND SEDIMENT BY 20%. FARM BUREAU BELIEVES EPA IS EXCEEDING ITS AUTHORITY. IT POINTS TO THE CLEAN WATER ACT WHICH GIVES STATES - NOT THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT - THE POWER TO REGULATE WATER QUALITY STANDARDS. THE FARM BUREAU IS PLANNING TO FILE A LAWSUIT IN PENNSYLVANIA, ONE OF THE STATES THAT WOULD BE IMPACTED BY THE PLAN. THE ORGANIZATION FEARS EPA COULD TRY TO BRING SIMILAR REGULATIONS TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BASIN.

DIESEL EMISSIONS: ALSO IN WASHINGTON, PRESIDENT OBAMA OKAYS AN EXTENSION OF THE DIESEL EMISSIONS REDUCTION ACT. ORIGINALLY CREATED IN 2005, NEARLY HALF-A-BILLION DOLLARS HAS BEEN EAR-MARKED TO RETRO-FIT OR MODERNIZE OLDER DIESEL ENGINES. EMISSIONS HAVE BEEN GREATLY REDUCED THANKS TO CLEAN DIESEL TECHNOLOGY AND ULTRA-LOW SULFUR FUEL. THE EXTENSION PLEDGES THE SAME INVESTMENT OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS.

AG CONNECT: A DANGEROUS MIX OF SNOW AND ICE HIT ATLANTA THIS WEEK - BAD TIMING FOR THOUSANDS IN TOWN FOR THE AG CONNECT EXPO. IN ITS SECOND YEAR, THE EVENT IS A SHOWCASE FOR AGRI-BUSINESS. THE ASSOCIATION OF EQUIPMENT MANUFACTURERS MANAGES THIS EXPO...SO AS YOU MIGHT EXPECT, THAT MEANS PLENTY OF NEW EQUIPMENT AND TECHNOLOGY WAS ON DISPLAY. ATTENDANCE WAS UP THIS YEAR - HELPED BY THE AMERICAN FARM BUREAU WHICH ALSO HELD ITS ANNUAL CONVENTION IN ATLANTA THIS WEEK. AG-CONNECT WILL NOW BE HELD EVERY OTHER YEAR. THE NEXT EXPO IS SET FOR 2013 IN ORLANDO.

STOCK SHOW: THE 105TH EDITION OF THE NATIONAL WESTERN STOCK SHOW CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND IN DENVER. EVERTHING FROM CATTLE AND HORSE SHOWS TO PROFESSIONAL RODEO TAKES PLACE ON THE 100 ACRE SHOW GROUNDS. IN ALL, 15,000 HEAD OF LIVESTOCK AND MORE THAN 600,000 VISITORS WILL TAKE PART IN THE 16 DAY EVENT.

HEARTLAND: FOR MANY IN SOUTH DAKOTA, PHEASANT HUNTING IS A SEASON THAT CAN'T BE MISSED. WITH THAT IN MIND, A GROWING NUMBER OF FARMS ARE EXPANDING THEIR BOTTOM LINE BY TAPPING IN TO THIS POPULAR PAST-TIME. LARRY ROAR FROM SOUTH DAKOTA PUBLIC BROADCASTING TAKES US TO AN OPERATION THAT RAISES HOGS - AND PHEASANTS! TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THIS OPERATION, HEAD ONLINE TO WWW.SPRINGCREEKHUNTING.COM ...WE'LL POST A LINK ON OUR HOME PAGE FOR INSTANT ACCESS.

BAXTER BLACK: IT'S TIME FOR BAXTER BLACK. HE JOINS US NOW FROM HIS ARIZONA RANCH TO PAY TRIBUTE TO A PRECIOUS COMMODITY - A FRIEND YOU CAN DEPEND ON. BAXTER JOINS US AGAIN IN TWO WEEKS TO OUTLINE THE PERILS OF A "CALVING MIS-DIAGNOSIS." UNTIL THEN, CHECK OUT HIS WORK ONLINE AT WWW.BAXTERBLACK.COM . WHEN WE COME BACK, TRACTOR TALES AND OUR COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE...PLEASE STAY WITH US.

TRACTOR TALES: TRACTOR TALES THIS WEEK FEATURES AN INDIANA COLLECTOR WHO TRAVELED ALL THE WAY TO WEST TEXAS TO SHOW OFF HIS FORD 8-N. THIS CLASSIC TRACTOR HAS BEEN IN CARL SMITH'S FAMILY FOR OVER 60 YEARS. THE FORD 8-N SERIES REPLACED THE 2-N SERIES IN 1947 AND CONTINUED PRODUCTION UNTIL 1952. WE'LL POST A LINK ON OUR HOME PAGE FOR MORE BACKGROUND ON THIS SERIES OF TRACTORS.

CHURCH SALUTE: TODAY'S FIRST COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE GOES TO THE STATE OF OHIO AND THE VANLUE CHRIST UNITED METHODIST CHURCH. IT WAS FOUNDED IN 1879 AS FRANKLIN CHAPEL. IN 1887 THE CHURCH WAS STRUCK BY LIGHTNING PROMPTING EXTENSIVE REPAIR. MEMBERSHIP TODAY IS 82 AND THE CONGREGATION IS LED BY PASTOR ERMA METZGER. CHARLENE SMITH SENT US THE INFORMATION. OUR SECOND CHURCH IS WINDFALL EMMANUEL UNITED CHURCH OF CHRIST LOCATED IN GALION, OHIO. THEY CELEBRATED THEIR 170TH ANNIVERSARY LAST OCTOBER. BEGUN IN A LOG CABIN CHURCH IN 1840, EARLY WORSHIPERS WERE LED BY CIRCUIT RIDERS. IN 1892 THE WOODEN CHURCH WAS ENLARGED. BY 1970, THE CONGREGATION HAD OUTGROWN THE OLD BUILDING AND THE CURRENT STRUCTURE WAS COMPLETED. OUR THANKS AUDREY COBLE. AS ALWAYS WE WANT TO LEARN ABOUT YOUR HOME CHURCH AS WELL... SALUTES CAN BE SENT TO THE ADDRESS ON THE SCREEN. STAY WITH US - THE MAILBAG IS NEXT.

MAILBAG: TIME NOW FOR OUR WEEKLY LOOK INSIDE THE FARM REPORT MAILBAG....WE GET PLENTY OF COMMENTS ABOUT BAXTER BLACK, AND THERE SEEM TO BE TWO DISTINCT VIEWS. FOR EXAMPLE, THIS E-MAIL FROM ROBERT KLINEPIER "WE CERTAINLY ENJOY YOUR INFORMATIVE PROGRAM EVERY SUNDAY MORNING. BUT BAXTER BLACK SEEMS LIKE A WASTE OF VALUABLE TIME WHICH COULD BE SPENT ON INTERESTING FARM NEWS. HE'S NOT CLEVER, FUNNY OR INFORMATIVE AND JUST A WASTE OF TIME. ARE WE THE ONLY ONES WHO FEEL THIS WAY?" AND THEN THIS ONE FROM LAST WEEK FROM RITA G.: "OK. THAT WAS ONE OF THE FUNNIEST ONES YET....THANKS FOR HAVING HIM ON YOUR PROGRAM." FIRST OF ALL, THANKS TO ALL OF YOU WHO SHARED YOUR OPINIONS, AND THE SPLIT WAS REMARKABLY EVEN. THIS DOES NOT MAKE OUR PROGRAMMING DECISIONS ANY EASIER, BY THE WAY. I'M SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE, I GUESS. BUT I THINK IT'S BECAUSE OF THE ANCIENT FARMER-HERDER ANTAGONISM. THE FABLED COWBOY MYTHOS ELUDES ME. FOR INSTANCE, THERE ARE NO FARMER-POETS, ANALOGOUS TO BAXTER AND OTHER COWBOY POETS. FARMERS ARE NOT NOTED FOR DANCING EITHER. THEN THERE IS THE WHOLE BOOTS-AND-HAT CHARM ASSOCIATED WITH COWBOYS THAT MY PROFESSION CAN ONLY ENVY. THERE IS NO MOVIE GENRE LABELED THE "MIDWESTERN". BUT ABOVE ALL HUMOR IS A REALLY TRICKY THING, AND RIGHT NOW IN OUR CULTURE I THINK WE'RE A LITTLE SLOWER TO CUT SOME SLACK WHEN SOMEONE IS KIDDING US. UNFORTUNATELY, LAUGHTER MAY BE THE ONE THING WE NEED MORE OF RIGHT NOW. SO I AM INCLINED TO APPRECIATE HIS WORK, EVEN WHEN I DON'T GET IT. AS ALWAYS, WE WANT TO HEAR FROM YOU, SEND COMMENTS TO INFO@USFARMREPORT.COM OR LEAVE US A VOICE MAIL AT 800-792-4329.
 

 

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