USFR Weekly Recap - January 29-30, 2011

January 31, 2011 03:46 AM
 

THIS WEEK ON U.S. FARM REPORT
EPISODE #1955
JANUARY 29-30, 2011

JOHN’S OPEN: HELLO AND WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT, I'M JOHN PHIPPS. THE RECORD CROWD AT THE TOP PRODUCER SEMINAR INCLUDED A LARGE NUMBER OF YOUNGER FARMERS. FROM MY PERSPECTIVE - MUCH YOUNGER FARMERS AND THEIR PRESENCE AND ATTITUDES HELPED SHAPE THE EVENT. FOR EXAMPLE, THERE WAS MORE INTEREST IN CHINESE CORN INVENTORIES, FARMLAND INVESTORS, AND PRECISION AGRICULTURE AND MUCH LESS IN OLD TOPICS LIKE THE FARM PROGRAM OR CROP INSURANCE. BACK IN THE DAY, PARSING FARM POLICY COULD TAKE UP MOST OF ANY FARM MEETING. BUT WE MAY BE WITNESSING A NEW CHAPTER UNFOLDING FOR THE FARMER- GOVERNMENT RELATIONSHIP. ONE WAY TO LOOK AT IT IS THESE YOUNG PRODUCERS MAY HAVE SIMPLY OUTGROWN OUR OLD POLICY IDEAS. TIME NOW FOR THE HEADLINES.....HERE'S AL PELL

COTTON: THANK YOU JOHN AND HELLO EVERYONE. COTTON FUTURES CONTINUED TO SOAR THIS WEEK ON SPECULATION THAT GLOBAL SUPPLIES CAN'T KEEP PACE WITH CHINA'S DEMAND. MARCH FUTURES HIT ONE-HUNDRED-70 CENTS A POUND...THAT'S MORE THAN DOUBLE A YEAR AGO. WITH NO SIGNS OF A LET-UP, GROWERS ARE ADDING COTTON ACRES THIS YEAR.

PEANUTS: USDA IS FORECASTING AN ADDITIONAL 2.5 MILLION ACRES OF COTTON WILL BE PLANTED THIS SPRING. SOME GROWERS AT THE GEORGIA PEANUT FARM SHOW WONDERED HOW MANY ACRES COTTON WILL TAKE AWAY FROM THEIR FAVORITE CROP. AT THIS TIME PEANUT PRICES ARE HITTING $550 A TON. BUT SPEARMAN SAYS THEY NEED TO HIT 600 DOLLARS TO COMPETE WITH COTTON.

TOP PRODUCER WINNER: SOME OF THE MOST SUCCESSFUL FARMERS IN THE COUNTRY GATHERED THIS WEEK IN CHICAGO FOR THE ANNUAL TOP PRODUCER SEMINAR. AMONG THE ATTENDEES, THE 2011 TOP PRODUCER OF THE YEAR - - JIM KLINE OF KLINE FAMILY FARMERS FROM HARTFORD CITY, INDIANA. KLINE WAS ONE OF THREE NOMINEES FOR THE AWARD, WHICH LOOKS AT NOT ONLY THE BUSINESS LEDGER, BUT AGRONOMIC PRACTICES AND COMMUNITY INVOLVEMENT. KLINE IS CONSIDERED A PIONEER IN NO-TILL AND STRIP TILL PRACTICES. FOR THOROUGH COVERAGE OF THE EVENT, HEAD ONLINE TO www.agweb.com .


ROUNDTABLE: THIS WEEK'S MARKETING ROUND-TABLE TAKES US TO THE TOP PRODUCER SEMINAR HELD IN CHICAGO THIS WEEK. I HAD THE OPPORTUNITY TO HOST THE DISCUSSION. OUR PANEL INCLUDES MARK GOLD, BILL BIEDERMANN, AND GREGG HUNT. WE STARTED OFF WITH COMMENTS ABOUT CORN CROP PROSPECTS IN ARGENTINA.

JOHN’S WORLD: ALTHOUGH IT'S HARD TO TEAR YOUR EYES FROM THE COMMODITY PRICE SCREENS, THE FOOTAGE AND - I CAN'T BELIEVE I'M GOING TO SAY THIS - THE TWEETS COMING FROM TUNISIA, EGYPT, YEMEN, AND LEBANON HAVE BEEN EXPLOSIVE NEWS. WHILE THIS SEEMS FAR FROM OUR WORLD OF HOGS, CORN AND COTTON, IF WE HAVE NOT LEARNED TO RESPECT THE GROWING INTERCONNECTION WE HAVE WITH THE WHOLE GLOBE, WE WILL BE CONTINUALLY SIDESWIPED BY HISTORY IN THE MAKING. WHAT I SEE HAPPENING IS THE BEGINNING OF THE END FOR CORRUPT AND INEFFECTIVE DICTATORSHIPS. IT WILL NOT OCCUR IN ONE YEAR OR EVEN TEN, BUT TOO MUCH INFORMATION AND POWER HAVE BEEN ABSORBED BY COMMON PEOPLE FOR THINGS TO REMAIN STATIC. WE HAVE SEEN IT IN RUSSIA AND EASTERN BLOCK COUNTRIES. EVEN CHINESE LEADERS ARE NERVOUS. POPULAR DISCONTENT IS CONTAGIOUS. MUCH OF THE ANGER COMES FROM BROKEN ECONOMIC SYSTEMS THAT CANNOT SUPPLY BASIC HUMAN NEEDS. ALONG WITH A HUNGER FOR MORE FREEDOM IS SIMPLE HUNGER, PERIOD. THIS STRUGGLE TOWARD DEMOCRACY IS A FORESHADOWING OF ANOTHER DEMAND INCREASE FOR AG COMMODITIES. IT WILL TAKE LONGER THAN WE WANT BUT AS MORE CHOICES ARE AVAILABLE TO MORE PEOPLE, SUFFICIENT AND SECURE FOOD SUPPLIES BECOME A PRIORITY. WE COULD TREAT THIS AS A SIMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR PROFIT ON OUR FARMS. BUT I FIND MORE SATISFACTION IN VIEWING MY WORK AS HELPING NOURISH THE UPWARD STRUGGLE OF THE FORGOTTEN BILLION. LET US KNOW WHAT YOU THINK.... SEND EMAILS TO MAILBAG@USFARMREPORT.COM OR CALL AND LEAVE US A VOICE MAIL.


2ND HALF:
JOHN’S OPEN:
HELLO AND WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT, I'M JOHN PHIPPS. THE FOOD INDUSTRY IS ADJUSTING TO SURPRISINGLY HIGH COMMODITY PRICES AND CONCERNS ABOUT SUPPLIES. DAIRY PRICES HAVE ABRUPTLY JUMPED LATELY, FOR ONE EXAMPLE. CONSUMER PRICE INCREASES ARE EITHER INEVITABLE OR ALREADY UNDERWAY. BUT IT IS LESS CLEAR HOW PRICE INCREASES WILL AFFECT CONSUMER PURCHASES. THE MARKET SHARE OF LOW-PRICE RETAILERS COULD INCREASE, AS WELL AS SUBSTITUTION OF LOWER COST PROTEINS AND OTHER COST-CUTTING BEHAVIORS. BUT I THINK AMERICANS AT LEAST MAY EXHIBIT A PATTERN OF BETTER, RATHER THAN SIMPLY CHEAPER FOOD CHOICES. WE MAY BE READY TO GRUDGINGLY FORK OVER MORE FOR FOOD THAT'S BETTER TO FORK DOWN. LET'S GET STARTED WITH THE HEADLINES AND AL PELL....

FOOD PRICES: THANK YOU JOHN AND HELLO EVERYONE. IT'S GOING TO COST YOU MORE TO EAT THIS YEAR, WHETHER IT'S AT-HOME OR AT A RESTAURANT. THE 2011 CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR ALL FOOD IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE 2-3%. ECONOMISTS AT THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE SAY FOOD PRICE INFLATION WAS RELATIVELY WEAK FOR MOST OF 2009 AND 2010. BUT HIGHER FOOD COMMODITY AND ENERGY PRICES HAVE RECENTLY EXERTED PRESSURE ON WHOLESALE AND RETAIL FOOD PRICES. AND OF COURSE, THAT GETS PASSED ALONG TO CONSUMERS. USDA SAYS DAIRY PRODUCTS SHOWED THE HIGHEST INCREASE, UP AS MUCH AS 5.5%.

RESTAURANTS: MEANWHILE THE NUMBER OF U.S. RESTAURANTS IS DOWN FROM A YEAR AGO, ESPECIALLY THOSE NOT CONNECTED TO A MAJOR FOOD CHAIN. A STUDY CONDUCTED BY THE NPD GROUP, A MARKET RESEARCH FIRM, SHOWS THE NUMBER OF EATERIES DECLINED BY 1% OR ABOUT 5,500. INDEPENDENT RESTAURANTS DROPPED 2%, WHILE THE NUMBER OF CHAIN RESTAURANTS REMAINED FLAT.

TACO BELL SUIT: A FAST FOOD GIANT IS ON THE DEFENSIVE. A LAWSUIT WAS FILED THIS WEEK CLAIMS WHAT TACO BELL CALLS BEEF SIMPLY ISN'T ACCURATE. THE FALSE ADVERTISING SUIT WAS FILED IN FEDERAL COURT, BY A WOMAN IN CALIFORNIA. HER ATTORNEY'S SAY TACO BELL'S GROUND OR SEASONED BEEF IS ONLY 15% PROTEIN. TACO BELL HAS TAKEN OUT FULL-PAGE ADS IN MAJOR NEWSPAPERS DEFENDING ITS RECIPE, SAYING IT STARTS WITH 88% BEEF.

CHICKEN BACTERIA: YOU'VE HEARD ABOUT THE DANGERS OF HANDLING RAW CHICKEN. A NEW STUDY SAYS IT MAY BE MORE DANGEROUS TO HANDLE THE PACKAGE THAT CHICKEN CAME IN. A STUDY DONE IN THE UNITED KINGDOM FOUND 40% OF SUPER-MARKET POULTRY PACKAGES WERE CONTAMINATED WITH BACTERIA. THAT WAS EQUAL TO THE AMOUNT OF BACTERIA THEY FOUND INSIDE THE PACKAGE. RESEARCHERS BELIEVE THE TRANSFER HAPPENS DURING THE MOVING, STACKING AND STORING OF THE FOOD. FOOD SAFETY EXPERTS SAY WASHING HANDS AND THOROUGHLY COOKING CHICKEN HELPS REDUCE ANY RISK OF ILLNESS.

LSU BROILER HOUSE: BACK HERE IN THE STATES, A SET OF POULTRY DEMONSTRATION HOUSES IS SHOWING GROWERS HOW TO RAISE CHICKENS WITH LESS ENERGY. IN THIS REPORT FROM THE LSU AG CENTER, TOBIE BLANCHARD SHOWS US HOW IT WORKS.

HEARTLAND GERMAN CORN: UNIQUE TRADITIONS AND OLD RECIPES. THE HABITS OF OLDER GENERATIONS CAN ONLY SURVIVE WITH THE COOPERATION OF FUTURE GENERATIONS. IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA THERE'S A UNIQUE PRIVATE SCHOOL THAT GOES TO GREAT LENGTHS TO PROMOTE AND PRESERVE ITS GERMAN HERITAGE. GALEN CULVER OF AFFILITATE KFOR-TV IN OKLAHOMA CITY HAS OUR STORY. GALEN TELLS US THE ACADEMY HOSTS A "GERMAN FEAST AND AUCTION" EACH YEAR TO RAISE MONEY FOR THE SCHOOL. THE MENU INCLUDES VERENIKA, GRAVY AND SMOKED SAUSAGE.

BAXTER BLACK: BAXTER BLACK IS BACK THIS WEEK WITH THE STORY OF A "CALVING MIS-DIAGNOSIS". HE JOINS US NOW FROM HIS ARIZONA RANCH...WHEN WE COME BACK, IT'S TIME FOR TRACTOR TALES AND OUR COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE...PLEASE STAY WITH US.

TRACTOR TALES: TRACTOR TALES THIS WEEK TAKES US TO EASTERN MINNESOTA FOR A LOOK AT A 1948 FARMALL CUB. ORIGINALLY BUILT FOR SMALL GARDEN OPERATIONS, THIS TRACTOR IS SURPRISINGLY VERSATILE. PRODUCTION OF THE FARMALL CUB BEGAN IN 1947. THE TRACTOR REMAINED RELATIVELY UNCHANGED UNTIL 1964 WHEN DIFFERENT VARIATIONS WERE INTRODUCED.

CHURCH SALUTE: LET'S HEAD TO THE SHOW-ME STATE FOR OUR FIRST COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE THIS WEEK. THE CHRISTIAN CHURCH AT NEW BLOOMFIELD, MISSOURI WAS ORGANIZED IN 1849 BY PAT HENDERSON. THEIR FIRST CHURCH WAS ERECTED TWO YEARS LATER. THIS BUILDING WAS REPLACED BY A NEW STRUCTURE IN 1909, A PORTION OF WHICH STILL SERVES THE CONGREGATION. IN 1964 AN EDUCATIONAL AND FELLOWSHIP HALL WAS ADDED, OUR THANKS TO PASTOR JOE GIBSON FOR SENDING US THE INFORMATION. OUR SECOND CHURCH IS ST PETER LUTHERAN CHURCH IN MORRISON, ILLINOIS. THEY MARKED THEIR 125TH ANNIVERSARY LAST OCTOBER. FIVE YEARS AFTER THE FOUNDING THE FIRST CHURCH WAS COMPLETED SOUTH OF MORRISON. CHURCH HISTORY NOTES THAT AFTER PAYING FOR THE CHURCH, THE BUILDING FUND STILL CONTAINED $7.02. A NEW CHURCH IN TOWN WAS COMPLETED IN 1913. THE CURRENT HOME WAS DEDICATED IN 1968. BY 1927 WORSHIP SERVICES HAD TRANSITIONED FROM GERMAN TO ENGLISH. FOURTEEN PASTORS HAVE SERVED THE CHURCH. DOROTHY KAUFMAN SENT US THE PHOTO AND HISTORY. AS ALWAYS WE WANT TO LEARN ABOUT YOUR HOME CHURCH AS WELL... SALUTES CAN BE SENT TO THE ADDRESS ON THE SCREEN. STAY WITH US - THE MAILBAG IS NEXT.

MAILBAG: THIS WEEK WE'LL ANSWER A VIEWER QUESTION THAT IS NOT ABOUT BAXTER BLACK FOR A CHANGE....SANDY FROM COLORADO ASKED ABOUT PUTTING CRP GROUND BACK INTO PRODUCTION: "IF WE ARE RUNNING OUT OF ACRES TO PLANT WHEAT, CORN, ETC., WHY NOT TAKE SOME OF THAT CRP GROUND FROM THE GOVERNMENT? IT SOUNDS LIKE SUPPLY/DEMAND IS STARTING TO MEET EACH OTHER AND IF WE HAVE ALL THAT CRP GROUND WHY NOT USE IT?" GREAT QUESTION SANDY, AND ONE THAT IS SERIOUSLY BEING CONSIDERED. THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS IN PLAY. FIRST OF ALL, THE CONSERVATION RESERVE PROGRAM INVOLVES LONG TERM CONTRACTS, ONLY SOME OF WHICH EXPIRE EVERY YEAR. FOR 2011 ABOUT 4 MILLION ACRES ARE UP FOR RENEWAL. SOME OF THESE CONTRACTS WILL NOT BE RENEWED SIMPLY BECAUSE AN OWNER COULD MAKE MORE FARMING IT THAN THE CRP PAYMENT. BUT THE MAJORITY OF THESE AREAS ARE NOT IN PRIME CROP AREAS NOR ARE THEY OPTIMALLY SUITED TO CROP PRODUCTION. THAT'S EXACTLY WHY THE PROGRAM HAS BEEN SO SUCCESSFUL - IT HELPS PROTECT MARGINAL FARMLAND FROM EROSION AND ENCOURAGES GOOD SOIL CONSERVATION PRACTICES. THE FEW ACRES OF CRP ON OUR FARM, FOR EXAMPLE ARE GRASS WATERWAYS, WHICH I WOULD NEVER PLOW UNDER AT ANY PRICE. NOW ADD IN THE ACRES THAT HAVE BEEN CAREFULLY PLANTED TO TREES AND PERMANENT COVER CROPS, AND THE NUMBER OF ACRES THAT COULD BE ADDED IS RELATIVELY SMALL. THERE ARE SOME ACRES THAT WILL COME INTO PRODUCTION, BUT THE IDEA THAT EVERY CRP ACRE CAN OVERNIGHT BECOME AN EQUIVALENT CORN ACRE IS MISTAKEN. AS ALWAYS, WE WANT TO HEAR FROM YOU, SEND COMMENTS TO MAILBAG@USFARMREPORT.COM OR LEAVE US A VOICE MAIL AT 800-792-4329.


 

 

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