USFR Weekly Recap - June 11-12, 2011

June 13, 2011 04:00 AM
 

THIS WEEK ON U.S. FARM REPORT
EPISODE #1974
JUNE 11-12, 2011

TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT. A U.S.D.A. REPORT STUNS THE MARKET BY CONFIRMING THEIR SUSPICIOUS ABOUT LOST ACRES.

PORK PRODUCERS LOOK AT THE OUTLOOK FOR AN INDUSTRY UNDER BRUTAL PRESSURE AND OUR ROUND TABLE LOOKS AT THE MARKET FROM THE TOP PRODUCERS SUMMER SEMINAR.

U.S. FARM REPORT BROUGHT TO YOU BY CHEVY AND THEIR AWARD WINNING CARS, TRUCKS AND CROSSOVERS. HELLO, WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT. NO FARMER LIKES TO REPLANT A FIELD THAT FAILS EARLY IN THE SEASON, MORE THAN THE EXTRA EXPENSE AND HASSLE AT THE PUBLIC ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF FAILURE. IT'S WHEN THE SECOND TRY ALSO FAILS THAT WE GET UNSETTLED. WE DOUBLED DOWN ON THE ECONOMIC CROSS AND HAVE USED UP ALL THE PLANTING WINDOW AVAILABLE. THIS YEAR RECORD GRAIN PRICES HAVE MANY OF US REALLY STRETCHING THE ENVELOPE. I HAVE SEEN MORE CORN PLANTED IN JUNE THAN PREVIOUS YEARS COMBINED. YOU CAN SEE IT, THIS TIME FOR SURE. TIME FOR THE HEADLINES.

THE U.S.D.A. REACTS TO WHAT'S BEEN A CHALLENGING PLANTING SEASON. ON THURSDAY THE AG DEPARTMENT LOWERED ACRES TO 90.7 MILLION ACRES, THAT'S DOWN FROM THE MARCH FORECAST. PLANTING DELAYS APPEAR TO BE OFF SETTING LIKELY GAINS IN THE WESTERN CORN BELT AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AS A RESULT PRODUCTION IS NOW PROJECTED AT 13.2 BILLION- BUSHELS.

U.S.D.A. ALSO LOWERED NEW CROP CORN STOCKS. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OLD CROP BALANCE SHEET LEAVING STOCKING AT 70 MILLION-BUSHELS. DESPITE THE DROUGHT THE U.S.D.A. IS TAKING THE WINTER WHEAT CROP AT AROUND ONE AND A HALF BILLION BUSHELS. IT'S PEPPED NOW THE HIGH PRICE OF FEED WAS A MAJOR ISSUE FOR PRODUCERS GATHERED THIS WEEK AT WORLD PORK EXPO. ABOUT 20,000 CAME FOR THE EVENT. WITH DELAYED PLANTING THERE IS THE POTENTIAL PROBLEM FOR ENOUGH SUPPLY.

THE BIG THING WILL DETERMINE THIS YEAR IF WE HAVE A PROBLEM OR NOT IS WE HAD A DELAYED PLANTING, NOW A NORMAL HARVEST STARTING IN THE EARLY SEPTEMBER, IF THAT BACKED OFF, SAY ANOTHER THREE TO FOUR WEEKS WE HAVE ABOUT TWO AND A HALF WEEKS OF SUPPLY. THERE IS A POINT WE COULD HAVE TIME WITHOUT FEED.

THOSE ARE THE HEADLINES. NOW BACK TO JOHN FOR CROP WATCH.

CROP WATCH THIS WEEK IS A TWO STATER, IN GEORGIA GROWER SAID HIS DRY LAND CORN CROP IS GONE DUE TO DROUGHT. HE SAID ITS FALLING IN THE FIELD AND FOR CROPS UNDER PIVOT UNION THEY ARE STRUGGLING TO KEEP YOU UP. ? PENNSYLVANIA A GROWER SAID HE FINISHED PLANTING HIS SOYBEANS ACTION THE NO TILL BEAN GROUND WAS LIKE CONCRETE WITH ALL THE HEAVY POUNDING RAIN. WHEN WE RETURN OUR ROUND TABLE GATHERS AT THE SUMMER SEMINAR. WE WILL BE RIGHT BACK. .

IOWA WAS THE PLACE TO BE FOR SOME OF THE BEST FARMERS. PRODUCER HELD IT'S FIRST SUMMER SEMINAR. THE TUNE UP FOR FARM BUSINESS COVERS EVERYTHING FROM FINANCING TO LAND STRATEGIES TO MANAGING MARGINS. IT ALSO HAD THE ROUND TABLE. I WAS JOINED BY MARK, GREG AND BILL FOR THE DISCUSSION. I ASKED GREG TO EXPLAIN WHAT'S HAPPENING WITH THE CORN MARKET.

WHY WE HAVE GOTTEN HERE, IT'LL BE PRETTY TOUGH TO SEE CORN GET THROUGH SEVEN DOLLARS WITHOUT SOME HORRIBLE WEATHER FORECASTS THAT PANS OUT MEANING A BLOCKING RIDGE BUT WE HAVE -- WE MADE A LOT OF PROGRESS SINCE THAT REPORT NOW AND A DOLLAR AND A QUARTER FROM THOSE LOWS. THE --THE KEY RIGHT NOW IS -- IS THERE IS GOING TO BE A LOT OF STANDING ORDERS, YOU SAW HOW WE WENT UP IN THE NIGHT SESSION, 96 AND THE ORDERS I THINK IT WAS. WE ARE JUST GOING TO BE PLAYING AROUND HERE, TRYING TO DETERMINE HOW MANY ACRES OBVIOUSLY WERE PLANTED AND THAT IT'S NOT REALLY GOING TO BE THE ANSWER TO THAT I DON'T THINK IS GOING TO COME IN THE JUNE 30th REPORT. IT'LL END UP RESURVEYING IOWA, INDIANA AND PROBABLY SOME -- PROBABLY NORTH DAKOTA OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT. THAT BALL WILL STILL BE IN THE AIR. THE BOTTOM LINE NOW IS THE MARKET FEELS TWO SIDED AFFAIR AT THE MOMENT.

HE IS WRONG RIGHT?

I KIND OF AGREE WITH HIM. THE MARKET RIGHT NOW --I SAID MANY MONTHS AGO THAT I THOUGHT THE ACRES WAR WOULD BE OVER SOONER RATHER THAN LATER. WE HAVE HAD THE NICE ONE UP IN PRICES, BACKED OFF SINCE THEN AND NOW WHETHER WE ARE GOING TO --LOOSE A MILLION OR TWO MILLION ACRES BECAUSE OF WHAT'S HAPPENING IN IOWA AND INDIANA AND NORTH DAKOTA I DON'T THINK IS CRITICAL NOW AS THE WEATHER IS GOING TO BE. I WOULD AGREE WITH GRAHAM GREG THAT WITHOUT A MAJOR WEATHER INCIDENT IT'S GOING TO BE HART FOR THE MARKET TO SUSTAIN THESE KIND OF HIGH PRICE, CERTAINLY OF WHAT LIVESTOCK HAS DONE. WE HAVE SEEN CHINESE SOYBEAN DEMAND NEARLY DRY UP. WE HAVE --BECAUSE WE HAVE LOST THAT PERHAPS MILLION OR TWO MILLION ACRES, WE ARE IN A DANGEROUS SITUATION. WE ARE OKAY RIGHT NOW BUT IF WE START LOSING YIELD ON TOP OF THAT LOSS OF ACRES, THE SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCE HAS BEEN VERY CLOSE TO GOING ONE WAY OR THE OTHER AND NOW WE HAVE LOST A LITTLE BIT OF ACRES AND ARE LEANING THAT WAY. WE CAN MAKE IT UP WITH GOOD WEATHER BUT IF WE GET INTO A HOT DRY SITUATION IT'LL BE PRICES THAT WILL SLOW SOCKS OFF PEOPLE.

WELL, WHAT KIND OF FEEDBACK ARE YOU GETTING FROM THE PRODUCERS YOU TALKED TO ABOUT THEIR SENSE OF --BOTH THE NUMBERS, THE PROGRESS NUMBERS YOU AND I HAVE TALKED ABOUT THAT, THERE ARE ROAD THINGS ABOUT THAT. IS THERE A SENSE --THEY ARE PENCILING IN,.

I DON'T THINK 159 IS POSSIBLE. I THINK THAT WE ARE PROBABLY LOOKING AT SOMETHING BELOW 157. FROM A STAT STANDPOINT.

AT THE END --LOOKING AT THE SIZE OF THE CROP.

THAT DEPENDS ON THE ACRES NUMBER. IN THE LAST COUPLE YEARS, EVEN IN LATE PLANTING U.S.D.A. RACES CORN ACRES. JULY 1st AND PLANT CORN. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR ACRES TO NOT GO DOWN THE WAY WE ALL THINK BUT ALL THE STATS SAY THE YIELD WILL BE DOWN. IF IT'S DOWN TO 157 WE WOULD HAVE A CARRY OVER RIGHT AT 600 OR LESS. THAT WOULD BE A BULLISH SET UP. ANY BLINK WOULD BE BULL ISH. THE PROBLEM IS THEY CAN PLAY WITH THOSE NUMBERS, DEFUSING A LOT OF WHAT WE WANT TO SEE AS THE EMOTIONAL MOVE AND ON THE OTHER HAND THE BIGGEST DEMAND SECTOR OF OUR MARKET PLACE ISN'T IN END USERS BUT IN FUNDS. FOR THE LAST TWO MONTHS THE TUNED FUNDS HAVE BEEN SELLING, NOT BUYING. YOU KNOW --THEY ARE GETTING OUT BECAUSE THEY PLAYED THE GRAIN MARKETS AS AN INFLATION PLAY AND THEY ARE RIGHT. WE NEED A NEW STORY TO GET THE FUNDS TO COME BACK IN AND BUY GRAIN.

IS THERE ROOM FOR FUNDS TO ACTUALLY ADD MORE? THEY DON'T HAVE A LOT OF OTHER PLACES THAT --IS GOING ON.

YEAH, FEDERAL REGULATION HAS DEFINITELY MOVINGED IN TO THE COMMODITY SECTOR. CRUDE HAS BEEN PRETTY ORDERLY CONSIDERING ALL THE COUNTRY THAT ARE IN STRESS OVERSEAS IN THE MIDDLE EAST. IF THE CFTC DOES MANDATE POSITION LIMITS IN GRAIN, THIS WHOLE THING IS OVER. THE TWO STORIES TO WATCH IS FUNDS BUYING ON INFLATION, WATCH THE STOCK MARKETS AND CRUDE FOR THAT AND THEN WHAT'S GOING ON IN WASHINGTON. I THINK THAT STORY MAY BE MORE IMPORTANT THAN THE FARM BILL RIGHT NOW.

I THINK --I THINK THE OTHER ONE WILL COME INTO PLAY IS THE WEATHER.

YEAH.

WE HAVE SEEN FAIRLY UNUSUAL WEATHER AND WHEN WE COME BACK I WANT TO TALK ABOUT THIS 800 MILLION-BUSHELS WE SUPPOSEDLY HAVE LEFTOVER. WHETHER IT IS --WE WILL BE BACK WITH MORE IN A MOMENT. .

WE'RE BACK AT THE SUMMER SEMINAR WITH MARK, BILL AND GREG. WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT CARRY OVER, WHAT I AM WORRIED ABOUT IS WILL IT BE IN THE NIGHT PLACE? WILL IT --WHATEVER IS LEFTOVER BE AVAILABLE AND AVAILABLE IN TIME IF THIS CROP IS FURTHER DELAYED?

IT'LL BE AVAILABLE IF THEY BELIEVE THE WEATHER WILL BE OKAY AND THEY HAVE THE CROPS. UNTIL FARMERS KNOW THEY HAVE A CROP, UNTIL OTHER PEOPLE WE AREN'T GOING TO SEE THIS GRAIN GET RELEASED. WHAT I THINK IS SUPPORT IS -- THE BASIS IS GOING TO DO STRANGE THINGS OVER THE NEXT THREE OR FOUR MONTHS, GOOD AND BAD, AS A FARMER, YOU HAVE THE FLAT PRICE THAT YOU HAVE TO MANAGE BUT ALSO THIS BASIS RISK, SWINGING 50, 60, A DOLLAR A BUSHEL IS A REAL OPPORTUNITY FOR YOU TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF IT AND I WOULD ASK YOU TO --HOW MANY OF YOU TRACK YOUR BASIS DAILY, PERSONALLY PUT THE PENCIL TO THE PAPER YOURSELF AND I BELIEVE THAT IF YOU WANT TO BE A BETTER MARKETING TRACKING IT AND --CAN BE A GREAT THING. BASIS IS TIGHT. I DON'T SEE IT GETTING ANY BETTER. IF WE SENSE A PROBLEM IN THE CORN IN SEPTEMBER I DON'T KNOW WHERE IT COULD GO.

IF YOU ARE A WHEAT PRODUCER AND YOU ARE TAKING A LOOK AT THE FUNDAMENTALS THERE, WE HAVEN'T TOUCHED ON WHEAT. IS THERE ANY GOOD WAY TO HANDLE THE KIND OF MARKETS PROBLEM THAT YOU SEE TRYING TO USE -- THE BOARD OR --WHATEVER TOOL.

WE STILL EMPLOY THE RULE THAT WE LEARNED IN THE CASH MARKET INDUSTRY AND THAT IS WHEN THERE IS CARRY IN THE MARKET AND THEY ARE PAYING YOU TO STORE IT, ROLL YOUR HEDGE, PICK UP THE CARRY AND WAIT TO SEE IF BASIS WILL IMPROVE. THAT IDEA HAS WORKED YEAR IN AND OUT. ON CORN YOU KNOW WE WERE ABLE TO ROLL IT OUT FROM LAST DECEMBER TO JULY AND PICK IT ALL UP AND LOOK AT WHAT THE BASIS HAS DONE. WE MADE A LOT OF MONEY IN OLD CROP CORN. NOW THERE IS NONOUT TO THE NEXT ONE. YOU SEE ELEVATORS SELLING CORN AND IN THE WHEAT THE BASIS TODAY UP IN MINNEAPOLIS, CASH WHEAT IS AT $15 AND THE BOARD IS AT TEN. IT'S JUST THE WHEAT IS LIKE A KIND OF STRANGE ANIMAL THAT'S OUTSIDE OF THE FENCE.

IS IT REVERTING TO A CASH MARKET?

IT IS. THERE ARE SOME CASH GRAIN CAP COMPANIES THAT AREN'T EVEN USING THE BOARD BECAUSE THE BANKS WON'T STAND BEHIND IT AND YOU CAN'T PUT YOURSELF IN DANGER. IF YOU CAN HEDGE IN WHEAT I WOULD STICK WITH THE SAME RULE. IF THE BOARD IS PAYING YOU TO STORE IT STORE IT. IF THERE IS NO CARRY IN THE MARKET LOOK FOR A GOOD BASIS AND SELL.

WOULD THERE BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR LIVESTOCK AND THE PROTEIN SECTOR AS A WHOLE. DO YOU --ARE THEY TO LATE TO PICK UP A CHANCE TO BUY?

I --NO, I DON'T THINK IT'S TO LATE BUT THE WRITING PRETTY MUCH ON THE WALL. THE PLAIN STATES, THE CATTLE FEED LOTS, YOU CAN SEE WHAT HAPPENS IN THE BASIS THERE, THEY UNDERSTAND IT, THAT'S WHY UP IN --BIDDING FOR AUGUST RIGHT NOW AND PAYING UP BIG TIME. EVERYBODY IS ON THAT PAGE THAT LOOK, THIS DELAYED PLANNING ASK THE END REU.S. NOTHING WILL COME OF ANY TIME SOON. THE ONE PROBLEM TO IS THE SOUTHEAST, IF THERE IS ANY PATTERN IN WEATHER RIGHT NOW THAT WILL BE --I PUT MY BET ON THE SOUTH EAST AND INTO THE DELTA, WE SAW THAT PATTERN START TO DEVELOP IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY IN MARCH WITH THE RAIN. YOU KNOW WEATHER PATTERN, DO BUILD ON THEMSELVES, YOU DON'T RECOGNIZE THEM AT THE MOMENT BUT --I CAN SEE THAT IS A BIG ISSUE, I CAN SEE HOW THE THREAT OF THAT BACK DOOR INTO OHIO, INTO INDIANA, I HAVE SEEN THAT OVER THE YEARS, THAT WOULD BE MY CONCERN AT THE MOMENT. THE OTHER THING IS LOOK, THE WAY, ONLY WAY WE WILL GET A GOOD CROP IS TO HAVE COOL NIGHTS. YOU KNOW WE SAW THAT, IN 92, 94 AND 2008 AND I WOULD SAY NOW THAT THOSE ODDS, YOU CAN JUST --WORK THEM OUT YOURSELF, IS, YOU KNOW, I CAN'T PUT A LOT OF BELIEF THAT WE WILL STAY IN THAT POSITION FOR A LONG TIME THOUGH THE NEXT TWO WEEKS DOES LOOK IDEAL. LOCKING RIDGES WILL PROBABLY COME BACK INTO PLAY BUT THE SOUTHEAST WHERE IT NEVER MEANT ANYTHING TO US, BUT NOW WITH THIS TYPE OF END AND CARRY, NICK AND 100 THERE. IT'LL MEAN SOMETHING.

THE CHANGES WILL CONTINUE. THANK YOU VERY MUCH. WE WILL BE BACK IN A MOMENT. .

WEATHER ON U.S. FARM REPORT IS BROUGHT TO YOU BY NATIONWIDE AGRO BUSINESS, NATIONWIDE AGRO BID IS THE NUMBER ONE FARM INSURANCE IN THE U.S..

CINDY CLAWSON JOINS US, AS I RECALL MIKE SAID SOMETHING ABOUT WARM WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. HE DIDN'T SAY 103 DEGREES AND SIX INCHES.

THE HEAT BUT 103 WAS A LITTLE ON THE CRAZY SIDE AND NOT ONLY DID WE HAVE A WARM FRONT WAY TO THE NORTH UP TOWARDS --TO THE NORTH OF MINNEAPOLIS BUT EVEN AS WE LOOKED THROUGH THE UPPER AIR FEATURES IT WAS WARM ALOFT AS WELL. THAT'S WHAT HELPED KEEP THE TEMPERATURES WARM AT THE SURFACE BECAUSE WE WEREN'T SEEING ANY MIXING OF COOLING AIR. THE BIG STORY WHERE WE WERE SEEING SEVERAL AREAS OF TRIPLE DIGITS. WE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR AND IT CONTINUES TO BE VERY DRY IN THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH EXTREME DROUGHT ALL THE WAY FROM PARTS OF WESTERN LOUISIANA THROUGH TEXAS AND TO THE PAN HALLL AND INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS AND DOESN'T LOOK LIKE A LOT OF RELIEF. LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT THAT JET STREAM THAT WAS SHOWING SO MUCH HEAT LAST WEEK, WE HAVE SEEN THINGS CALM DOWN. IT'S A MORE PLEASANT WEEKEND FOR A LOT OF FOLKS AND MOST OF THE CORN BELT, ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN STRETCHES STILL VERY WARM. AS WE PUT IT IN MOTION WE WILL START TO SEE A RIDGE STARTING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE PICTURE. IT'LL BE LATER ON THIS WEEK AS WE GET INTO MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND THEN IN TO THE GREAT LAKES AREA AS WE FINISH OFF INTO THE WEEKEND. OAF ALL TEMPERATURES ARE A LOT BETTER LOOKING FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AHEAD. HERE IS A LOOK AT WHAT WE EXPECT INTO YOUR MONDAY FORECAST. STILL GOING TO SEE WET WEATHER AROUNDED EASTERN SEABOARD. SOUTHEAST AND TO THE PLAINS, HEADING IN TO WEDNESDAY IT'S ANOTHER KIND OF SLOW MOVING SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING MORE RAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST UP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO FRIDAY WE WILL SEE WET WEATHER IN SPOTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY, IT'LL START TO DRY OF AGAIN IN SOME OF THE PLAIN STATES BUT STILL SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED WEATHER AS YOU WE GET INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. INTO THE NEXT HALF HOUR WE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOKS, CRAZY WEATHER AND A LOT OF FOLKS CURIOUS AS TO WHAT WE WILL EXPECT. THAT'S COMING UP IN THE NEXT HALF HOU .

I HAD THE CHANCE TO TALK WITH SOME DANISH FARMERS. I ENJOYED FRIENDSHIPS WITH MANY OF THEM AND I ALWAYS APPRECIATE THEIR ININSIGHTS. ONE OF THE TOPIC IT'S PRICE OF FARMLAND. AFTER DOING MATH AND CONVERTING DOLLARS AND ACRES, WE THOUGHT ABOUT THE DIFFERENCES. TO MY SURPRISE THIS YEAR SEVERAL TALKED ABOUT DECREASING FARMLAND PRICES IN DENMARK. THE REASON APPEARS TO BE THE RELIANCE OF LIVESTOCK TO ADD VALUE ON THEIR FARMS. MOST ALL HAD DAIRY OR PORK BUSINESSES AND LIKE OUR OWNS, THE COST OF FEED IS PUTTING HUGE ECONOMIC PRESSURE ON THE OPERATIONS. SINCE DANISH LANDS HAVE ALWAYS BEEN MORE EXPENSIVE AND WITH SHARP INCREASES IN LAND PRICE THIS IS CONVERSATION STUCK IN MY MEMORY. ITS BEEN JOINED BY OTHER POINTS. 103 DEGREES IN MINNEAPOLIS AND IN EARLY JUNE, OHIO FARM THAT CAN'T GET PLANTED GRAIN PRICES THAT MAKE MY EARLY SALES LOOK LAUGHABLE. THIS IS WHAT OUR BRAINS DO. WE TRY TO FIND A PATTERN IN UNUSUAL EVENTS TO MATCH UP WITH A MEMORY SO WE CAN ANTICIPATE THE FUTURE. I DON'T THINK THAT SKILL WILL BE MUCH USE THIS YEAR. WE JUST HAVE NOT BEEN HERE BEFORE. IF YOU ARE UNEASY, EVEN THOUGH YOUR BOTTOM LINE LOOKS PROMISING THIS COULD BE THE REASON. WE ARE FLYING EMOTION A BLIND INTO A FUTURE UNLIKE ANYTHING AMERICAN AGRICULTURE HAS EVER KNOWN. SEND E-MAILS TO U.S. FARM REPORT.COM OR CALL AND LEAVE US A VOICEMAIL.

COMING UP IN THE NEXT HALF HOUR A MAN AND HIS TRACKER HIT THE ROAD FOR A GOODWILL TOUR. .

TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT WHILE FLOODS WIPE OUT MILLIONS OF ACRES IN THE CORN BELT TEXAS SUFFERS THROUGH A HISTORIC DROUGHT.

AN ANIMAL IDENTIFICATION SYSTEM TO KEEP MARKETS OPEN AND IF YOU COMPLAIN ABOUT BEING IN YOUR TRACK FOR AN HOUR CHECK OUT DAVE'S MILEAGE.

HELLO. WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT. HOW IN THE WORLD DID WE MANAGE TO LIVE WITHOUT VEHICLES THAT TELL US THE OUTSIDE TEMPERATURE. IT'S LIKE TRYING TO REMEMBER WHAT IT WAS LIKE BEFORE CELL PHONES. THIS WEEK I WAS CONVINCED MY S ENSORS WERE WRONG AS I DROVE ALONG, THAT IS UNTIL I OPENED THE CAB DOOR. WHILE IT MANY HIT 98 WHERE I WAS THE FACT I WAS DRIVING PAST FOOT HIGH CORN WAS STRANGE. I LOOKED TO THE SOUTHWEST AS IF I COULD SEE DROUGHT COMING UP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE UPSIDE IS BECAUSE OF THE TEMPERATURE READ OUT I HAD SOMETHING TO TALK ABOUT TO THE GUYS ON MY CELL PHONE.

TAEJON, WHILE FLOODING AS CAPTURED A MAJORITY OF THE HEADLINES DROUGHT IS DEVASTATING THE LONE STAR STATE. NEARLY 50% HAS EXPERIENCED SEVERE DROUGHT. THE MOST SEVERE LEVEL AND MORE THAN 90% IS UNDER EXTREME DRYNESS. ONLY PARTS NOT CONSIDERED ABNORMALLY DRY.

IT'S NOT YET THE WORST DROUGHT ON RECORD BUT IT'S CLOSE. CORN CROPS ARE JUST THREE FEET TALL AND WON'T PRODUCE ANY YIELD TO SPEAK OF. ECONOMISTS THINK LOSSES ACROSS ITS STATE HAVE TOPPED $1.2 BILLION. AT LEAST 26 HAVE DIED SINCE MAY FROM OUTBREAK OF E-COLI. EARLIER THIS WEEK THEY CLAIMED SPROUTS WERE TO BLAME BUT PULLED BACK FROM THAT CLAIM. THE AGRICULTURE COMMISSIONER HAS PLEDGED $300 MILLION TO HELP FARMER WAS THEIR LOSSES BUT AT LEAST 600 MILLION IS NEEDED.

THE CDC JUST RELEASED THIS FOOD SAFETY REPORT CARD THAT SHOWS THE MOST COMMON STRAIN OF E-COLI HAVE BEEN CUT IN HALF OVER THE PAST 15 YEARS. OVERALL RATES OF SIX FOOD BORN INFECTIONS HAVE DECLINED BY A QUARTER. SALMONELLA HAS INCREASED BY 10%.

IF YOUR CHILD HAS MILK ALLERGIES MILK GOODS THAT CONTAIN MILK MAY BE A GOOD ALTERNATIVE. PEOPLE GIVEN COOKED MILK SAW THEIR SYMPTOMS DISAPPEAR FASTER THAN CHILDREN WHO AVOIDEDT. RESEARCHERS BELIEVE HEATING THE MILK CHANGES THE MAKE UP OF PROTEIN.

WEATHER ON U.S. FARM REPORT IS BROUGHT TO YOU BY NATIONWIDE AGRO BUSINESS. NATIONWIDE AGRO BUSINESS IS THE NUMBER ONE FARM INSURANCE IN THE U.S..

SOME FOLKS WILL BE SEEING A WET WEEK AS WE HEAD THROUGH YOUR WORKWEEK. WE WILL LOOK AT WET WEATHER IN AT LEAST THE MIDATLANTIC, PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WE WILL SEE UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE WEST WITH A DIP IN THE JET STREAM. WE ARE SEEING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES, HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE THE JET STREAM DIP DOWN SO WE WILL SEE MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS AND A LOT OF THE CORN BELT. WET WEATHER FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS, DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST; FRIDAY IT LOOKS SIMILAR. WE SPREAD SHA RAIN FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST AND START TO SEE THE WARM AIR WITH A RIM INTO THE PLAINS. WHAT WE CAN EXPECT --WE ARE LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURESSA CROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES, SLIGHTLY ON THE COOL SIDE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THAT'S A BIGGY BECAUSE A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE SO BEHIND ON PLANTING, HOPEFULLY WE ARE GETTING A COUPLE DAYS TO CATCH UP BUT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. RIGHT ON THROUGH MOST OF THE CORN BELT AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAIN ITS WHILE WE CONTINUE TO SEE DRY WEATHER. NOW WE TAKE A LOOK FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE, 90 DAY TEMPERATURE SHOWS COOL TEMPERATURES IN TO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE UPPER MIDWEST. WE WILL SEE THE CONTINUATION OF WARM WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIERER STATES OVER TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND AS WE LOOK AT THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NEXT 90 DAYS WE EXPECT TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON INTO THE NORTHEAST, WE WILL SEE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONING WHERE WE DON'T NECESSARILY WANT IT TO CONTINUE WHERE IT'S VERY DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. BASICALLY HOT, AND DRY IN THE SAME AREAS THAT ITS BEEN HOT AND DRY AND SO THE 90 DIES ISN'T NECESSARILY THE BEST LOOKING FOR A LOT OF PEOPLE BUT JOHN AT LEAST THE ABOVE NORMAL IS A LITTLE MORE CONFINED IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. WE ARE --ONCE I GET IT PLANTED THEY WILL WANT THE RAIN.

THE OTHER THING, THERE IS AN OLD BELIEF OR --THAT THE DROUGHT THAT AFFECTS THE MIDWEST, ESPECIALLY STARTING SOUTHEAST AND THE FACT IT DIDN'T SHOW UP IN THE 90 DAY, THERE IS SOMETHING TO BE TAKEN OUT AND WE WILL TRY TO GET THE PLANTING DONE ONE WAY OR THE OTHER.

ABSOLUTELY.

SPIRIT OF THE HEART LAND IS NEXT. .

IN A YEAR WHEN TORNADOES, FLOODS AND DROUGHT HAVE TARGETED FARM COUNTRY ESPECIALLY HARD, THE NEED FOR A GENEROUS SPIRIT IS ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT. THIS WEEKEND WE MEET A MAN MAKING TIME TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE AS WES MILLS REPORTS HE AND HIS TRACTOR ARE ON A CROSS COUNTRY GOODWILL JOURNEY.

I'M SETTING OUT ON A 75 DAY TRIP TO ALL 48 STATES, TRYING TO RAISE AWARENESS AND FUNDING FOR THE FOOD RESOURCE BOARD, THE BANK AND THE DISASTER RESPONSE. THIS RUNS 35 MILES AN HOUR DOWN THE ROAD. IT'S 25 --26.9 MILES TODAY. WE ARE LOOKING AT ABOUT EIGHT TO NINE MILES A GALLON. IT'S LIKE DRIVING A TRUCK.

THEY CALL HIM TRACTOR DAVE. HE IS FROM A SMALL COMMUNITY IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN WITH A BIG HEART FOR HELPING OTHERS AND A LOVE FOR ANTIQUE TRACTORS. THAT COMBINATION IS THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND HIS MISSION.

THE REASON FOR --IS FOR THE PASSION I HAVE FOR BOTH. THE TRACTOR --THE TRACTORS A PART OF MY LIFE, ALWAYS HAS BE, HATED --I WHAT IN FARM EQUIPMENT. HOPEFULLY I HAVE AN EVENT LIKE THIS EVERY NIGHT TO SHOW MY LOVE FOR THE PEOPLE THAT ARE IN NEED BUT ALSO TO PROMOTE SOME OF THE ORGANIZATIONS SO WE CAN HAVE ALL KINDS OF VOLUNTEERS.

HIS PASSION STARTED A COOPT, THIS WAS NO ORDER TRACTOR. IN FACT HE CALLED IT A MIDWEST TRACK TRACTOR.

THEY WERE SOLD BY THE FARM BUREAU COOPERATIVE THROUGHOUT MICHIGAN, INDIANAPOLIS INDIANA. IT WAS BUILT IN CHICAGO AND THEN PUT TOGETHER IN MICHIGAN. IT'S KIND OF A LOCAL, MIDWEST. THE TRANSMISSION AND THE REAR END I DID MYSELF, THE ELECTRICAL IS DONE BY A SHOP. THE SAND BLASTING PAINTING WAS DONE BY A BODY SHOP. WE HAVE HAD A GREAT COMMUNITY EFFORT. THE GUY I WORK FOR BOUGHT THE TIRES AND THE COMMUNITY KIND OF WRAPPED THEIR ARM AROUND ME AND SUPPORTED ME AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ME. THEY GAVE ME ENOUGH MONEY TO GET ME OUT OF TOWN AT LEAST. GREAT COMMUNITY INVOLVEMENT AND I THINK THAT TODAY IS A VERY IMPORTANT THING IN WHAT I THINK RURAL AMERICA AND THAT'S WHERE I'M GOING. I NOWITZKI IT'S THERE AND ALIVE AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THERE.

THIS IS WES MINIMUMS REPORTING FOR U.S. FARM REPORT.

TRACTOR DAVE IS HOPING TO RAISE $200,000 ON HIS TRIP. WE WILL POST A LINING ON THE HOME PAGE THAT WILL LET YOU FOLLOW HIS PROGRESS. YOU CAN ALSO TRACK HIS JOURNEY ON FACEBOOK. HE IS POSTING PICTURE.

NEXT WEEK WE GO TO LOUISIANA AND WE WILL SEE HOW FARMERS ARE DEALING MISPLACED ANIMALS FEEDING ON THEIR CROPS. THAT STORY NEXT WEEK ON SPIRIT OF THE HEART LAND.

WHEN WE RETURN AN UPDATE ON THE NATIONAL ANIMAL ID SYSTEM. WE WILL BE RIGHT BACK. .

ITS BEEN ABOUT A YEAR SINCE CONGRESS PULLED FUNDING FOR THE NATIONAL ANIMAL IDENTIFICATION SYSTEM. A MOVE THAT EFFECTIVELY KICKED THAT RESPONSIBILITY BACK TO THE STATES. AS A RESULT WORK IS UNDERWAY TO DEVELOP A SITUATION THAT WON'T BE MANDATORY BUT STILL PROVIDES THE CRITICAL 48 HOUR TRACE BACK GUARANTEE. REGIONAL REPORTER MICHELLE ROURKE TAKE ITSELF FROM HERE.

Reporter: MANY WERE RELIEVED WHEN THE U.S.D.A. GAVE UP THE ANIMAL IDENTIFICATION SYSTEM AND GAVE THE POWER TO THE STATES.

WITH TECHNOLOGY WE THINK THE STATES CAN WORK TOGETHER AND THEN THEY CAN FEED IT FORWARD AND WE CAN TAKE IT FROM THE STATE ITS, TO THE FEDERAL AND THAT'S A BETTER PLAN THAN HAVING IT JAMMED DOWN OUR THROAT FROM THE FEDERAL REGULATORS.

ANOTHER ADVANTAGE IS THERE ARE ALREADY MANY IDENTITY PROGRAMS IN STATE. WITH U.S.D.A. LETS A VARIETY OF METH ODDS THAT SHOULD LOWER THE COST.

WE IDENTITY OUR HOME RAISED CATTLE THROUGH TAGS, TATTOOS, A NUMBER OF WAYS, BRANDING I GUESS IS A WAY, WE ALSO USE THE ID TAGS.

UNDER THE SYSTEM LIVESTOCK ONLY HAS TO BE IDENTIFIED IF THEY ARE MOVE ACROSS STATE LINES FOR COMMERCE. HOWEVER THAT INCREASES CONCERN THE PROGRAM WILL MOVE AWAY FROM A VOLUNTARY APPROACH.

IF YOU LOOK AT THE DETAILS THEY DON'T SAY MANDATORY BUT WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT CROSSING STATE LINES THAT'S GOING TO BE A DEF ACTION CTO --DEFACTO MANDATORY. >

WE COULD HAVE A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT PROGRAMS, AND REALLY AFFECT INTERSTATE COMMERCE.

THEY HAVE BEEN WORKING WITH THE IOWA STATE VETS ON THEIR PLAN.

A PLAN WHERE WE CAN INCORPORATE AS MANY STATES AROUND US, PARTICULARLY THE STATES THAT WE IMPORT CATTLE FROM SO THAT HE WITH CAN GET SOME KIND OF SYSTEM TO WORKW.

U.S.D.A. HAS BEEN GATHERS INPUT FROM THE VARIOUS STAKE HOLDERS.

LATE THIS SPRING. WE KNOW WHAT KIND OF MECHANICS, U.S.D.A. IS TALKING ABOUT. WE WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO COMMENT ON THOSE RULES, TO GO IN AND TRY TO MAKE THE CHANGES, WHATEVER IS PUT IN PLACE.

THE KEY TO DEVELOPING AN IDENTIFICATION SYSTEM IS TO BE ABLE TO STILL HAVE 48 HOUR TRACE BACK OF DISEASES, ESPECIALLY FOR FOREIGN CUSTOMERS.

OUR CONSUMERS STARTING TO DEMANSLAUGHTER IT. WE DON'T HAVE ENOUGH PRODUCT, AND HOPEFULLY WE CAN GET THAT TURNED AROUND BECAUSE THAT IS A HUGE PART OF WHETHER THEY BUY OUR PRODUCT OR NOT.

HE IS CONCERNED THE OUTSINNEDS TO BE A LEADER OR LOOSE ITS EDGE IN THE MEAT EXPORT MARKET.

WE ARE THE ONLY EXPORTING COMPANY IN THE WORLD WITHOUT MANDATORY [INAUDIBLE].

WE SEE IN KOREA WHERE THEY HAVE TOTAL TRACEABILITY, IN EUROPE. AND AUSTRALIA.

THEY SAY THEY MAY NEED TO RETHINK THE POLICY.

IT'S ALWAYS BEEN A VOLUNTARY PROGRAM, WE PROBABLY NEED TO REVISIT THAT. WE HAVE TO UNDERSTAND WE NEED TO BE ABLE TO TRACE THE DISEASE ISSUES.

WHILE THE EXPORTS HAVE RETURNED TO PREVIOUS LEVELS HE BELIEVES THE LACK OF A MANDATORY TRACE BACK PROGRAM MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

IF WE HAD IT --THAT'S A QUESTION YOU CAN ASK ALL THE TIME WHERE WE COULD BE IF WE HAD TRACEABILITY.

THANK YOU. WHEN WE COME BACK WE LOOK AT TRACTOR TALES AND THE COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE. .

AL JOINS US NOW WITH THIS WEEK'S TRACTOR TALES.

THIS 1922 INTERNATIONAL WAS FOUND IN A FLORIDA MUSEUM. DURING OUR VISIT TO THE PIONEER PARK DAY'S TRACTOR SHOW THE CURRENT OWNER STARTED IT UP FOR US.

JUST GIVE IT A LITTLE THING, JUST TO MAKE SURE. AS AN INTERNATIONAL I THINK IT WAS FROM LIKE --1916 OR SOMETHING TO 22. THIS WAS THE LAST YEAR. ONE OF THE SMALLER TRACTORS AT THE TIME AND UNIQUE. YOU DON'T SEE VERY MANY OF THEM AROUND BECAUSE THEY ALL JOT JUNKED. THIS ONE STARTS GOOD, USUALLY ONE OR TWO CRANKS IT'LL START RIGHT UP. IF YOU ASK ME TO DO IT MIGHT NOT. I HAD MORE POWER ON THE BULLET PULLLY THAN THE DRAW BAR. IT COULD HAVE BEEN USED FOR PLOWING, DISCING, ANY TYPE OF PULL TYPE THING.

WE DON'T SEE THAT MANY OF THEM. THEY REALLY THINK IT BOEING IN THE BACK IS UNIQUE. DOG HOUSE FRONT STARTS ON GAS AND YOU CAN SWITCH IT, HAS THE DUAL TANK. THE TWO TANK. I ONLY RUN IT ON GAS, I NEVER GET IT HOT ENOUGH ON KEROSANE. IT HADN'T BEEN RUNNING QUITE A FEW SHOWERS, HAD TO DO WORK ON THE STEERS. I PLAN TO PAINT IT LATER THIS YEAR. IT'S JUST FOR SHOW, I DON'T HAVE ENOUGH STRENGTH TO STEER IT IF I HAD TO USE IT.

NEXT WEEK WE ARE OFF TO MICHIGAN TO CHECK OUT A 1949 TRACTOR, THE OWNER AND HIS BROTHER HAVE SPENT HOURS RESTORING CLASSICS ASK THIS ONE IS NO EXCEPTION.

WE ARE OFF TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THIS WEEK'S COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE. JUST A YEAR AFTER A FIRE DESTROYED THEIR BUILDING THE SPRING VALLEY LUTHERAN CHURCH IS ONCE AGAIN SERVING NORTH DAKOTA. THE FIRE HAPPENED ON THE 26th OF MARCH 2012. CONSTRUCTION OF THE NEW BILING STARTED. THE NEW SERVICE --THE 240 MEMBER CHURCH IS PROUD TO SAY THE CHURCH IS ONCE AGAIN STANDING POWDERY ON TOP OF THEIR LITTLE HILL IN TURNER. OUR THANK YOU TO WAYNE AND TROY LARSON FOR SENDING IN THE STORY OF THE SPRING VALLEY LUTHERAN CHURCH. WE WANT TO LEARN ABOUT YOUR CHURCH AS WELL. SALUTES CAN BE SENT TO THE ADDRESS ON THE SCREEN. STAY WITH US, THE MAILBAG IS NEXT. .

COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE IS BROUGHT TO YOU BY FARMERS FEEDING THE WORLD. AGRICULTURE IS LEADING THE WAY AND FEEDING A HUNGRY PLANET. DREAM HUGE WITH US. .

TIME FOR A WEEKLY LOOK INSIDE THE FARM REPORT MAILBAG. MY COMMENT ABOUT INSTALLING DRAINAGE TILE SPURRED THIS QUESTION. DOES JOHN FEEL HE AND OTHERS HIGHER IN THE WATER SHED BEAR ANY RESPONSIBILITY FOR SOME OF THE UP CREASED FLOODING? BOB THIS IS A COMMON WORRY AND BEFORE I RESPOND RECOGNIZE THAT WHILE I'M TRYING I CANNOT BE COMPLETELY IMPARTIAL ON THIS ISSUE. MY FARM IS HEAVY DARK SOIL OVER THICK LAYERS OF CLAY. UNTILL FIRST TILE WAS PUT IN THE LATE 1800'S IT WAS USED MAINLY FOR GRAZING. FOR THE LAST CENTURY OR SO THE PRAIRIES HAVE BEEN LESS AVAILABLE. SUBSURRENDER --THAT WATER HAS TO WIND UP THERE EVENTUALLY OR BE EVAPORATED. THINK OF THE LAPPED AS A SPONGE. ONCE IT'S SOAKED PRECIPITATION BECOMES RUNOFF. WITH DRAINAGE IT CAN RESTORE THE SPONGE SO CLOUD BURSTS AREN'T FED IN TO THE RIVERS AS RAPIDLY. THIS SHOCK ABSORBER EFFECT ALSO REDUCES EROSION. ALONG WITH TO MANY LEVIES BUILT TO HIGH SAIDMENT IS RAISING THE LEVEL OF SAND --ADD IN LARGER RAIN EVENTS AND THE FLOODING IS NEARLY INEVITABLE.

SINNED COMMENT OR LEAVE US A VOICEMAIL.

FOR THANK YOU FOR WATCHING. BE SURE TO JOIN US NEXT WEEK. WE WILL BE SURE TO DO EVEN BETTER.

 

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