USFR Weekly Recap - March 19-20, 2011

March 19, 2011 12:39 AM
 

THIS WEEK ON U.S. FARM REPORT
EPISODE #1961
MARCH 19-20, 2011

 

 

HELLO. WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT. A DISASTER OF THE SCOPE OF THE QUAKE IN JAPAN HAS THE ABILITY TO CHANGE EVEN THE MOST STUBBORN MINDS ON ISSUES. ODDLY THINK ONE OF THE OF COURSES OF THIS TRAGEDY AND THE UP RISINGS IN THE MIDEAST WILL BE THE DAWN OF A NEW AGE FOR THE AMERICAN PROTEIN SECTOR. THE QUAKE HIGHLIGHTED THE IMPORTANCE OF INVENTORY. IMPORTING THE MOST CONCENTRATED FORM OF NUTRITION, MEAT MAKES MORE SENSE THAN EVER, THROW IN A CHEAP DOLLAR AND THE AMERICAN GROCERY STORE IS THE PLACE TO SHOP. MOVE OVER GREEN FARMERS, IT COULD BE LIVESTOCK'S TURN. TIME FOR THE HEADLINES. HERE IS AL.

 

THANK YOU JOHN. LIVESTOCK GROUPS CALL IT A BIG WIN AS A FEDERAL COURT RULES AGAINST THE EPA ON A CASE INVOLVING MANURE DISCHARGE. THIS WEEK THE COURT RULED THE EPA CAN'T REQUIRE LIVESTOCK OPERATIONS TO OBTAIN CLEAN WATER ACT PERMITS UNLESS THEY ARE DISCHARGING INTO A WATERWAY. SEVERAL FARM GROUPS INCLUDING A NATIONAL PORK PRODUCING COUNCIL SUED OVER ITS SO-CALLED RULE. THEY SAID THE EPA HAD SOUGHT TO REQUIRE PERMITS EVEN FOR OPERATIONS THAT HAD POTENTIAL TO DISCHARGE EVEN IF NOTHING HAD BEEN RELEASED. IT APPEARS CONSERVATION MEASURES ARE WORKING. THE UFDA SHOWED A REDUCTION IN THE AMOUNT OF SEDIM ENT LOSS FROM CULTIVATED CROP LAND. NITRO GEN IS DOWN 42% WHILE SEDIMENT RUNOFF IS DOWN 55%. THE EPA SET LEVELS AS PART OF THE DIET. FOR THE BAY.

 

DESPITE THE DROP IN CORN PRICES PORK PRODUCERS ARE EXPRESSING CONCERN ABOUT THE RISE IN FEED COSTS. THIS WEEK THE PORK PRODUCERS COUNCIL WAS JOINED BY ITS COUNTERPARTS IN CANADA AND MEXICO URGING THEIR RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS TO ADDRESS THE ISSUE ON FEED AVAILABILITY. THE THREE GROUPS SAID THEY ARE WORRIED ABOUT THE ABILITY TO FEED THEIR ANIMALS IN THE EVENTS OF A DROUGHT OR CROP DISEASE. AS WE HAVE SEEN --BEEN REPORTING THE CORN CARRY OVER STOCKS ARE AT THEIR LOWEST LEVELS IN 15 YEARS. LEADERS OF THE PORK GROUPS ASKING MINISTERS AND SECRETARIES TO MEET AND ADDRESS THE ISSUE.

 

UNITED STATES AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS ARE OFF TO A FAST START AFTER SETTING RECORDS IN 2010. JANUARY EXPORTS ARE WELL ABOVE NUMBERING FROM A YEAR AGO. PRIOR TO THE QUAKE AND TSUNAMI PORK, PORTS WERE UP NEARLY 30% IN JANUARY. US MEAT E PORT FEDERATION SAID CHINA IMPORTS WERE UP 90% FROM 2008 AND --AND UNITED STATES E PORTS WERE UP TO 128%. BEEF E PORTS WERE ALSO GOING HIGHER. JANUARY SALES TO CANADA THE SECOND LARGEST MARKET FOR BEEF WERE UP 17% IN JANUARY. THAT'S IT FOR THE HEADLINES, BACK TO JOHN FOR CROP WATCH.

 

CROP WATCH THIS WEEK TAKES US TO THREE DIFFERENT STATES, A NEBRASKA GROWER WHO SAYS MOST OF HIS WINTER WHEAT HASN'T COME OUT. HE SAID ABOUT TWO WEEKS OF REALLY GOOD DRYING WOULD HELP. NOW CONTRAST THAT WITH DENTON COUNTY TEXAS WHERE A GROWER SAID THERE IS NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR WHEAT TO RECOVER. HE QUILT WILTS BY NOON AND PERKS UP BY NIGHT. IN GEORGIA GUILTY OR NOT PLANTING IS JUST NOW GETTING UNDERWAY. THE STATE OFFICE SAID 2% IS IN THE GROUND. GROUND MOISTURE IS IN GOOD SHAPE. 80% OF THE STATE HAS SURPLUS TOP SOIL MOISTURE.

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAID FLOODING COULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FROM THE DAKOTA'S TO THE CORN BELT THIS SPRING. MIKE AND I WILL TALK ABOUT IT LATER IN THE WEATHER. WHEN US FARM REPORT RETURNING AL IS JOINED BY GREG AND MIKE TORRES FOR THIS WEEK'S MARKET WRAP. THE DISCUSSION STARTS IN JUST TWO MINUTES. PLEASE STAY WITH US.

 

US FARM REPORT BROUGHT TO YOU --A STRONGER ALLY IN YOUR BATTLE AGAINST TOUGH BROAD LEAF WEEDS. .

 

WE HAVE GREG AND MIKE. HE WE HAD AN UNUSUAL WEEK. WHAT STOOD OUT IN YOUR MEMORY MOST AND I WILL ASK YOU FIRST, OVER THE LAST WEEK AFTER THE JAPAN TSUNAMI.

 

I DIDN'T SLEEP THAT WELL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. THIS ROLLER COASTER RIDE IT WAS JUSTIN SANE. IT WAS BASED ON JAPAN TO A ALARM DEGREE, THE UNCERTAINTY AND MONEY FLOODED THE MARKET. JUST LIKE WHEN THEY RAID THE NAUGHTY HOUSE THEY ARREST THE PIANO PLAYER TOO, EVERYTHING WENT. GRAIN SHOULDN'T HAVE GONE DOWN THE WAY IT DID BUT IT DID ANY WAY AND THEY CAME BACK VERY STRONG.

 

YOU DIDN'T SLEEP WELL WHEN YOU SAW THIS HAPPENING AND WONDERED WHAT WAS HAPPENING. GREG WHAT HIT YOU THE MOST WHEN YOU SAW THIS HAPPEN?

 

PRETTY MUCH WHAT CROWD MENTALITY WILL DO. WHEN YOU GET SOMETHING NEW IN THE MARKET THAT'S OUT OF NOWHERE THEY TOOK IT TO ITS WORST POSSIBLE CONCLUSION AND YOU HAD TO ACCEPT THAT WAS GOING TO HAPPEN THROUGH WHAT NEWS REPORTS WERE COMING OUT AND EVERYBODY BECAME A NUCLEAR SCIENCIST FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS. SO, YOU HIT THE COMPUTERS THAT HIT THE MOVING AVERAGES AND YOU KNOW IT WAS A TYPICAL -- LEMMINGS GOING OFF A CLIFF AND THEN YOU GOT NEW PEOPLE SHORT AND WHEN NEW NEWS CAME OUT AND PEOPLE IN --AND REALITY STARTED TO SET IN AND YOU SAW THE EXPORT SALES FIGURES AND THE RUMORS ABOUT CHINA BUYING CORN, THINGS LIKE THAT, YOU KNOW IT'S AT PUTTING THE BEACH BALL UNDER WATER AND IT COMES SNAPPING BACK JUST LIKE THAT. YOU GET BACK TO WHERE WHY THE MARKET IS UP AND THE TREND IS BECAUSE WE DON'T KNOW IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ACRES TO SATISFY THE SITUATION AND THE GROUP -- YOU KNOW PRETTY MUCH PUT THAT ON THE FRONT PAGE HERE TODAY, TO REINFORCE THE FACT THAT WE WON'T KNOW ANYTHING UNTIL JUNE PROBABLY BUT THE LOGICAL CONCLUSION IS THAT ONE CROP IS REALLY GOING TO GET SHORT CHANGED IF --NOVEMBER BEANS AND NOVEMBER BEANS BASED ON THE GOVERNMENT'S NUMBERS HERE FROM THE OUTLOOK FOR THEM AT 43 AND A HALF. IF YOU GO TO 42 WE DON'T HAVE ANY. THERE IS A LOT OF DOTS TO FILL IN BUT --WE WILL STAY AT A SITUATION HERE UNTIL WE KNOW WHAT --WE HAVE A CROP.

 

YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT JAPAN, I JUST KIND OF BROUGHT EVERYTHING TO THE FOREFRONT AND WE START TO GET DISCUSSIONS, SOME OF THE GUYS GOT SCARED.

 

VERY MUCH.

 

PARTICULARLY.

 

UNBELIEVABLE PANIC.

 

YEAH. AND IT WASN'T JUST GRAIN, IT WAS EVERY MARKET, LIVESTOCK, MET 58, EVERYTHING JUST COLLAPSED. REALITY SETS BACK IN I THINK AT END OF THE WEEK AND MARKET SLIP LOOKED GOOD TO ME GOING FORWARD.

 

SEEMS LIKE THIS WORLD EVERYBODY HAS A COMPUTER, I KNOW IN THE --THE MOST UNDER DEVELOPED COUNTRIES PEOPLE THAT CAN GET IN TOUCH WITH THE WHOLE WORLD, SEEM ITS LIKE WE SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH INFORMATION TO BE ABLE TO AVOID THIS KIND OF A BIG SCARE. YOU JUST PUT YOUR HAND DOWN. WHAT DO YOU MEAN ON THAT?

 

IT'S HUMAN MENTALITY. PEOPLE --YOU JUST MENTION RAIDATION, NUCLEAR TO PEOPLE AND PEOPLE'S HAIR STANDS UP. I GOT CALLS FROM ALL KINDS OF PEOPLE. THE CLOUD IS COMES.

 

REALLY?

 

WHEN THE DUST SETTLED AND GUYS NIT PASSING OUT REPORTS AT LEAST AT THIS JUNCTION LOOKS LIKE NOTHING WILL LIVE 30-MILE AROUND THAT PLANT AND THAT'S IT. YEAH THEY WILL PROBABLY LOOSE BUSINESS, 18% OF THE FEED BUSINESS WAS UP IN THAT AREA. I TAKE THAT INTO CONSIDERATION BUT PEOPLE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD IF THEY WANT TO CAN EL CORN SOMEONE WILL TAKE IT.

 

YOU THINK JAPAN WILL COME BACK.

 

VERY MUCH SO. THEY ARE THE THIRD BIGGEST GDP IN THE WORLD. THEY WILL COME BACK. IT'LL TAKE A LITTLE TIME.

 

DO YOU SEE THE REPORTS ON TV, NO FOOD IN THE STORES, WHERE WILL IT COME FROM?

 

PROBABLY THE UNITED STATES WILL HELP ON THAT.

 

WE WILL COME BACK AND TALK ABOUT WHAT THIS MEANS TO INDIANA, AND THE UNITED STATES AGRICULTURE IN JUST A MOMENT. .

 

ROUND TABLE GUESTS, GREG AND MIKE. MIKE WILL ASK YOU WHAT DOES -- WHAT HAS HAPPENED TO US THE LAST WEEK, MEAN TO TRADERS?

 

YOU TRADE,.

 

YEAH.

 

MOSTLY IN TERMS OF WHAT DO WE CALL IT?

 

THE MARKETS.

 

THE MARKET. YEAH YOU TRADE THE MARKETS BUT YOU AREN'T REPRESENTING FARMERS.

 

SPECULATORS.

 

YEAH.

 

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN TO THEM?

 

IT'S HARDER TO SPECULATE NOW BECAUSE OF ALL THE VOLATILITY. THERE IS A LOT HAPPENING OVERNIGHT SO OPOSITION IS BECOMING A BIGGER PART OF MY BUSINESS BUT I'M REALLY --I WANT TO KIND PUT IN OPTION POSITIONS WHERE I'M BUYING A TIME WINDOW AND ALLOWING THE PRICES TO MOVE UP. IF YOU BUY FUTURES THAT'S THE BEST WAY TO DO IT BUT YOU HAVE TO BE ON IT ALL THE TIME. IT'S VERY TOUGH. THE RISK IS GREATER FOR THE SPECULATOR.

 

THE RISK GREATER. YOU KIND OF REPRESENT BOTH ON THAT SITUATION SO HOW --WHAT HAS HAPPENED, DEPENDING ON THE WAY YOU TRADE NOW AND WHAT DO YOU LOOK AT?

 

WELL HAVE YOU TO PUT STOPS IN AT NIGHT. THAT WILL SAVE YOU. HAVE YOU TO HAVE OPEN ORDER STOPS IF YOU ARE SPECULATING AND THAT --YOU KNOW YOU HAVE TO STAY ON THESE MARKETS PRETTY MUCH YOU KNOW 18 HOURS A DAY.

 

REALLY?

 

YEAH. YOU KNOW YOU GET TO SLEEP ABOUT SIX HOURS BUT YOU KNOW --I HAVE BEEN GETTING UP AT 3:30, MAYBE CATCHING A LITTLE NAP AND THEN 4:30 WAITING FOR EUROPE AND THEN GET TO WORK IN FIVE MINUTES. YEAH IF YOU ARE IN IT YOU KNOW YOU HAVE TO BE ON IT. THAT IS --YOU DON'T FOE WHAT YOU CAN TRUST. YOU KNOW --THE NEWS IS --THAT PERIOD OF TIME WAS --WHATEVER YOU WANT TO CALL THE NEWS ON THIS.

 

BASICALLY YOU WERE TALKING ABOUT INFORMATION CAME IN FROM EVERYWHERE.

 

WHAT WAS GOD INFORMATION BUT DOESN'T MEAN THEY DIDN'T TRADET. THERE IS A LOT OF THINGS TO GO THROUGH THERE AND --THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE SAW THE SAME THING HAPPEN BACK IN NOVEMBER. WE HAVE A NEW ADD ON LONG AND ALL THESE MARKETS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS. THE MARKET GETS A LITTLE SQUIRRELY RIGHT BEFORE THE CROP REPORT AND IT STARTED A LITTLE DOWN MUCH LIKE AFTER THE NOVEMBER CROP REPORT. THEN YOU PUT THE UNEXPECTED NEWS ON IT AND THIS ADD ON WAS BASICALLY FEARFUL, NOW WE WILL HAVE FLOODING IN THE LOWER MIDWEST, NOW WE WILL HAVE ALL THE PLANNING DELAYS. THAT WAS THE ADD ON AND NOVEMBER IT WAS --LA NINA WILL COME IN AND WIPE EVERYTHING OUT. SO THIS IS FORWARD LOOKING BUT IT'S WAY WAY FORWARD AND WHEN THE COMPUTERS PICK IN YOU SAW THE BUILD UP FROM THE TRADER'S REPORT AND THEN IT'S A HOSE JOB AND CRUISE EVERYBODY AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE BEFORE IT GOES BACK UP AGAIN. THAT'S BEEN THE PATTERN. THAT WON'T CHANGE UNTIL WE KNOW WHAT THIS CROPS.

 

BASED ON THIS INFORMATION THIS KIND OF THING AND YOU ARE BOTH TRADERS AND THERE --17, 18 HOURS A DAY, HOW ABOUT THE PERSON THAT USES YOUR SERVICE? WHAT DOES HE NEED TO DO OR SHE TO BE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE? I WILL ASK YOU THE SAME THING?

 

I THINK MOST PEOPLE CAN'T WATCH IT 17 HOURS A DAY. YOU CAN'T AND THAT'S WHY I THINK THE OPTION PLAY IS MORE REALISTIC FOR --FOR THE SPECULATORS. YOU CAN'T BE ON IT ALL THE TIME. YOU CAN HAVE THE OPINION AND PLAY THAT WITH THE FIXED RISK.

 

THAT'S MORE IMPORTANT.

 

THERE ARE OTHER MARKETS THAT HAVE DYNAMIC --BULLISH -- TO ME AND --I THINK THOSE ARE --MY THREE TOP.

 

WHAT DO WE NEED TO DO? TO TAKE THE BEST ADVANTAGE OF IT.

 

I SAID EARLIER HAVE YOU TO USE OPEN ORDER STOPS. YOU KNOW THAT'S SPECIAL -- THEN --WHAT YOU REALLY NEED, I'M SURE MOST PEOPLE GOT IT BUT -- THERE ARE --HAVE YOU TO HAVE ACCESS TO THE INTERNET. PRESIDENT WAY I CAN DO IT NOW, IF SOMETHING COMES OUT I NEVER WANT TO SEND THAT OUT TO HUNDREDS OF PEOPLE. YOU KNOW, OBVIOUSLY THAT IS A HURT IF YOU DON'T BUT --THE THING IS NOW THAT THOSE ARE -- THIS MARKET WHEN NEW STUFF COMES OUT YOU HAVE TO ACT NOW AND DUCK OR YOU WILL GET KILLED.

 

WE WILL BE BACK WITH MORE IN A MOMENT. .

 

MIKE HOFFMAN JOINS YOU NOW, WE HAVE PEOPLE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE PLAIN ITS WORRIED ABOUT A HUGE SNOW PACK MELTING, IS THAT SOMETHING YOU SEE COMING?

 

THEY HAVE AN ABOVE AVERAGE FLOOD RISK BUT IT DEPENDS ON HOW IT WARMS UP. I SUPPOSE THE GOOD NEWS IS WE ARE LOOKING AT CHILLIER AIR LATER NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK AT LEAST THAT'S HOW THE LONG TERM LOOKS AND THAT MIGHT LIMIT THE ABOVE AVERAGE SPRING FLOOD RISK. THAT COULD SLOW DOWN THE SNOW MELT AND KEEP THINGS HAPPENING. THAT'S SOMETHING WE HAVE TO WATCH OBVIOUSLY COULD HAPPEN A LITTLE LATER AS TIME GOES ON AS WELLW. WILL WATCH THAT FOR YOU BUT NO QUESTION THERE IS THAT ABOVE AVERAGE AREA, DROUGHT MONITOR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH A BAD DROUGHT. ARKANSAS, LOUISIANA LUE INTO TEXAS ONE OF THE WORST AREAS, ALSO POCKETS IN THE WESTERN TEXAS ACTION SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO STARTING SO SHOW UP WITH BAD DROUGHT SITUATIONS. LET'S CHECK OUT THE OVERALL SITUATION ACROSS THE COUNTRY. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK WE START OFF ZONAL MEANING CHILLY THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER, WARM DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTH, AS YOU WILL NOTICE WE START TO SEE A LITTLE TROUG H AND THAT DEVELOPS IN TO THE EAST. THAT'S WHAT I WAS TALKING ABOUT AS FAR AS THESE COLD SNAPS AND THE OHIO VALLEY, GREAT LAKES AND THAT MIGHT SLOW DOWN THAT FLOOD POSSIBILITY AND WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. THAT WILL ALSO SPREAD SYSTEMS, COULD SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREAS AS WELL. THERE IS MONDAY'S MAP, WE EXPECT A SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH SHOWERS OVER EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN AREAS, ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING IN OUT WEST WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. WITH THAT FLOW IT'S ALL MOVING QUICKLY. THAT ONE OUT WEST COMING IN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INTO THE CHICAGO LAND AREA WITH RAIN OFF TO THE EAST, SNOW TO THE NORTH AND WEST SO THAT WOULD -- OBVIOUSLY SLOW DOWN THAT FLOOD RISK AS WELL. YOU WILL HAVE HAVE SNOW FALL. BY FRIDAY THE SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN WITH THIS BIG TROUGH SHALL THE COLD AIR INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA, VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION AND THE SYSTEMS OUT WEST WILL START TO SPREAD DECENT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ALONG THE WESTERN TIER. NEXT HALF HOUR WE WILL HAVE A LONGER RANGE FORECAST. >> .

 

I HAVE CHEERED THE EFFORTS BY THE JAPAN ESE TO RECOVER FROM ONE OF THE WORST QUAKES IN HISTORY. WHILE THERE IS NO UPSIDE TO THIS TRAGEDY IT LOOKS LIKE PROGRESS IS BEING MADE AND THIS FARMER IS ROOTING FOR THEM. ONE KNEE JERK REACTION IS TO DECLARE NUCLEAR POWER TO DANGEROUS TO CONSIDER ANYMORE. THIS WOULD BE A MISTAKE I THINK. IF SAFE CONDITIONS ARE AS I EXPECT REESTABLISHED BETTER CONCLUSIONS COULD BE MADE LATER. THE JAPAN DISASTER IS BEING LOOKED AT AS WORSE THAN THREE MILE ISLAND BUT NOT AS BAD AS CHERNOBYL. WE HAVE THREE UNFORTUNATE EXAMPLES OF NUCLEAR ACCIDENTS AND HAVE SOME DATA TO TURN THE UNTHINKABLE INTO A THINKABLE. WE KNOW THAT DESPITE HORRIBLE PREDICTIONS NO EVIDENCE OF LONG TERM HEALTH EFFECTS HAVE APPEARED FROM THREE MILE ISLAND. WE ALSO KNOW HOW UTERRITORY CAN BE CONTAMINATED FOR HOW LONG FROM CHERNOBYL. MONTHS FROM NOW WE WILL HAVE MORE INFORMATION ABOUT DESIGN, LOCATION THAT CAN MAKE NEW PLANTS SAFER. I HOPE WE ALSO LEARN OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS THE SAME THING WE DID FROM THE PREVIOUS ACCIDENT, WHILE TRAGIC EXPENSIVE AND WORRY SOME NONE LIVED UP TO THE FEARS WE OFTEN LINK TO NUCLEAR POWER. I COULD YET BE PROVEN WRONG IN THIS CASE. MY BET IS WE RECOVER NEW KNOWLEDGE ABOUT THIS TECHNOLOGY AS A SAD BUT IMPORTANT SITUATION.

 

SENT -- LEAVE US A VOICEMAIL. WHAT'S UP WITH THE WINTER WHEAT? GROWERS CHIME IN FROM THE CLASSIC. STAY WITH US THE SECOND HALF HOUR. THE SECOND HALF HOUR IS COMING UP. .

 

TODAY ON UNITED STATES FARM REPORT, SORING COMMODITY PRICES STARTING TO DENT WALLETS.

 

A NEW DISAS AND THOSE PLASTIC DRINK BOTTLES MAY SOON BE REPLACED BY MORE ENVIRONMENTLY FRIENDLY CONTAINERS.

 

ITS FARM REPORT, THE WORLD OF FARMING IS CHANGING. BE READY. >> >> HELLO. WELCOME TO UNITED STATES FARM REPORT. IN A WORLD OF RESULTS INSTANTLY WE FORGET SOME SYSTEMS STILL HAVE DELAY TIMES BUILT IN. OUR FOOD CHAIN IS ONE OF THEM. THE PRICE OF BEEF IS INFLUENCED BY FEED COSTS BUT ONLY AFTER THE NEARLY TWO YEAR CYCLE OF PRODUCTION FOR A STEER. THEUS THE BOOM IN COMMODITY HASN'T BEEN REFLECTED IN CONSUMER PRICES YET. THAT GRACE PERIOD MAY HAVE RUN OUT AND WE WILL GET THE EXPENSIVE NEWS IN A MOMENT. JUDGES BY MY E-MAILS OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS FOOD INFLATION FIGURES WON'T COME AS A SHOCK TO MANY OF YOU. THE POLITICAL CONSEQUENCES THOUGH COULD SHOCK GRAIN PRODUCERS. LET'S GET STARTED.

 

THANK YOU. THE PRICE OF FOOD AND FUEL IS ON THE CLIMB. THE LABOR DEPARTMENT'S PRODUCER PRICE INDEX CLIMB THE .7% THE BIGGEST JUMP IN 26 YEARS. ANALYSTS NOTE THE JUMP IS TIED ALMOST ENTIRELY TO HIGHER COSTS OF PORK FOOD AND GASOLINE. FOOD PRICES JUMPED NEARLY 2.5% WHILE GAS WAS UP 2%. IN A GROCERY STORE VEGETABLES SAW THE BIGGEST SPIKE. MEMBERSHIP OF THAT INCREASE IS TIED TO A COLD SNAP IN FLORIDA EARLIER THIS YEAR. THAT WIPED OUT VEGETABLE CROPS ACROSS THE STATE HITTING TOMATOES ESPECIALLY HARD. KEEPING BANANAS MAY DEPEND ON KEEPING A DANGEROUS DISEASE OUT OF THE WEST. A STRAIN OF PANAMA DISEASE HAS ALREADY RALPH HIT CROPS IN ASIA AND AUSTRALIA. NEW IT COULD EVENTUALLY DO THE SAME TO UNITED STATES AND SOUTH AMERICAN CROPS. THE MOST POPULAR RESISTED EARLIER STRAINS OF THE DISEASE BUT NOT THIS ONE.

 

ONCE IT ARRIVES, ONCE THAT HORSE IS OUT OF THE BARN IT'S MORE DIFFICULT TO MANAGE. KEEPING IT OUT OF THE AREA IS MUCH BETTER THAN TRYING TO DESTROY IT ONCE YOU HAVE IT.

 

THEY HAVE BE KITCHEN ONE OF THE MOST POPULAR FRUITS. THE UNITED STATES IMPORTS FOUR MILLION TONS A YEAR.

 

THE UNITED STATES NOW DRINKS MORE WINE THAN ANY OTHER COUNTRY, BUMPING FRANCE FROM THE TOP SPOT. NOW THE WINE INSTITUTES SAYS AMERICANS CONSUME 3 MILLION CASES, THE FRENCH STILL HAVE MORE WINE AMERICA CAPITS.

 

PEPSI ANNOUNCED THIS WEEK IT'S COMING OUT WITH A NEW BOTTLE MADE FROM PLANTS. JUST A COUPLE WEEKS BACK HINES AND COKE REVEALED SIMILAR PLANS. PEPSI SAID THEIR VERSION WILL BE 100% PLANT BASED MADE FROM GRASS, PINE MARK AND CORN HUSKA. THEY HOPE EVENTUALLY TO INCORPORATE WASTE BYPRODUCTS LIKE ORANGE AND POTATO PEELS.

 

THAT IS IT FOR NEWS. TIME FOR THE NATIONAL FORECAST FROM MIKE HOFFMAN.

 

WANT TO START THE WEEK. WE ARE LOOKING AT A FAST MOVING JET STREAM. RIPPLES COMING THROUGH. GOOD TROUGH TO START THE WEEK OUT. THAT'S WHERE A LOT OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL START BUT THESE WILL BE SCATTERED AREAS OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY, WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS, SOME OF THESE DROUGHT AREAS OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. I DOUBT THAT'S WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO GIVE YOU MUCH RELIEF FROM THE DROUGHT. SAME IDEA THERE AS WE HEAD TOWARD WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS, THIS TIME PROBABLY SNOW NORTHWEST EASTERN GREAT LAKES IN TO THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES AS THAT RIPPLE MOVES EAST. NOT COMING IN OUT WEST AND THEN THE COMPUTER MODELS KIND OF STALLING THINGS OUT. KEEPING A GOOD TROUGH OUT WEST. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE INTO THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. THAT WILL KEEP IT COLD AND DRY BUT PROBABLY A WET PERIOD, MAYBE SEVERAL DAYS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS IN THE WESTERN STATES. LET'S CHECK IT OUT TOWARD NEXT WEEK. YOU CAN SEE BASICALLY FROM MARCH 27th THROUGH APRIL 2nd AND WE ARE LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM FLORIDA ON UP INTO NEBRASKA, DOWN INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO, BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK THEN PROBABLY THAT NORTHERN TIER OF STATES ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND UNFORTUNATELY THE DROUGHT AREAS AT LEAST SOME OF THEM LIKE FLORIDA, PARTS OF TEXAS, FOUR CORNER AREA PROBABLY BELOW NORMAL AMOUNTS NEXT WEEK. GOING OUT FURTHER THEN THE 30 DAY OUTLOOK YOU CAN SEE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NORTHWEST AND THEN THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF 9 GREAT LAKES, ABOVE NORMAL FROM SOUTH FLORIDA AND IN MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 30 DAYS AND CHECKING OUT THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT MONTH ABOVE NORMAL FROM LET'S SAY ST. LOUIS TO CHICAGO THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, FLORIDA UNFORTUNATELY, SOUTHERN LOUISIANA, MOST OF TEXAS BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED THEN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE NORTHWEST. NOT THE BEST OF NEWS REALLY AS WE CONTINUE TO KIND OF SEE THE SOUTHERN AREAS GETTING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH IS NOT GOOD NEWS BECAUSE THAT'S THE AREA WHERE THE DROUGHT SITUATION IS.

 

WE HAVE THE WINTER WHEAT CROP IN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA IN BAD SHAPE. THIS DOESN'T LOOK LIKE A LOT OF RELIEF.

 

DOESN'T MEAN WE CAN'T GET IT TIMELY BUT LOOKS BELOW NORMAL.

 

RIGHT. THANK YOU. SPIRIT OF THE HEART LAND IS NEXT. .

 

SPIRIT OF THE HEART LAND IS BROUGHT TO YOU BY FARMERS FEEDING THE WORLD. AGRICULTURE HAS THE ABILITY TO FEED ONE BILLION HUNGRY PEOPLE. PLEASE DREAM HUGE WITH US.

 

EDUCATORS AGREE THE MOST EFFECTIVE LEARNING STARTS AT AN EARLY AGE. A RULE THAT APPLIES TO HUMANS AND ANIMALS. CASE IN POINT A PUPPY KINDERGARTEN WHERE DOGS WALK THE CLASSROOM. CHUCK TAKES YOU THERE IN THIS REPORT FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF TENNESSE

 

THE FIRST DAY OF SCHOOL IS ALWAYS A NERVOUS TIME. WILL THE TEACHER LIKE ME, WILL I MAKE NEW FRIEND? GRANTED THESE AREN'T AREN'T NORM CONTROL STUDENTS BUT THEY ARE JUST AS EXCITED. CRANK UP THE CUTE METER, IT'S DAY ONE OF PUPPY KINDERGARTEN AT COLLEGE OF VET MEDICINE.

 

USUALLY WITH PUPPIES THE WORLD IS SO FRESH AND THEY DON'T HAVE THE FEARS.

 

Reporter: NEL IS THE TEACHER FOR SIX PUPPIES AND THEIR OWNERS.

 

YES.

 

YOU DON'T REALLY KNOW HOW MUCH TROUBLE THEY CAN GET INTO. IT'S JUST NORMAL BEHAVIORFUL.

 

Reporter: THEY GET LESSONS IN FOLLOWING ORDERS FROM HUMANS. THIS ONE IS LEARNING THE MOST BASIC COMMAN PUPPIES QUICKLY PICK UP THAT GOOD BEHAVIOR HAS ITS REWARDS, FOLLOW THE TREAT, THE MAIN THING THEY WANT THE DOGS TO LEASH LEARN IS HOW NOT TO FREAK OUT WHEN THEYEN COUNTIER ANOTHER DOG. SOCIALIZING IS A KEY LESSON.

 

WE WILL HAVE DIFFERENT ANIMALS, FRIENDLY DOGS AND WE MAY EVEN HAVE A FRIENDLY CAT. THEY WILL HAVE A WIDE VARIETY OF EXPERIENCES WITH SOUNDS, TEXT TOURS.

 

THERE IS TRAINING FOR HUMANS TOO. THE CLASSES HELP YOU FORM A BOND WITH THE PET AND YOU LEARN TO TRUST AND RESPECT EACH OTHER. DAISY WILL BE A BIG DOG SOME DAY AND HER OWNER SAYS THE CLASS WILL HELP THE TWO OF THEM ADJUST TO THEIR FUTURE TOGETHER.

 

IT JUST PROVES SO BENEFICIAL. JUST THE SHORT CLASSES, IT'S PERFECT FOR ANY DOG BECAUSE IT DOES TEACH THEM HOW TO TEACH THE TRAINER.

 

BY THE END OF CLASS WE HAVE EARNED A GOOD BELLY RUB. THE IDEA IS NOT FOR PEOPLE TO DOMINATE AND CONTROL DOGS BUT TO MANAGE THEIR BEHAVIOR. YOUR PUPPY CAN ENJOY A LONG HEALTHY LIFE AND ONE OF THE BEST WAYS TO SHOW YOUR AFFECTION IS TO MAKE SURE THEIR EDUCATION GETS OFF TO A GOOD START. .

 

EXPERTS SAY IT'S NEVER TO LATE FOR A DOG TO BENEFIT FROM TRAINING. NO MATTER HOW MANY BAD HATES THEY HAVE DEVELOPED.

 

NEXT WEEK THE RESULTS OF 20 YEARS OF HEARD DIGGING. WE HEAD TO OKLAHOMA TOMATOEY MAN WHO HAS CRAFTED A ONE OF A KIND DREAM HOME. THAT'S NEXT.

 

NEXT WHY MANY ARE WORRIED ABOUT THE WINTER WHEAT WROTE. WE WILL BE RIGHT BACK. GLO.

 

MISS ANY OF THE SHOW, HEAD TO THE WEBSITE TO WATCH THE PROGRAM ONLINE. UNITED STATES FARM RESULTS, THE SPIRIT OF THE COUNTRYSIDE. .

 

THERE IS A GROWING WORLD DEMAND FOR FOOD.

 

THERE IS LESS AND LESS LAND THAT IS AVAILABLE FOR AGRICULTURE EVERY DAY. WE ARE TRYING TO PRODUCE AS EFFICIENTLY AS POSSIBLE WHILE STILL BEING ENVIRONMENTLY RESPONSIBLE.

 

I HOPE THAT WE ARE ALLOWED AS AGRICULTURE PRODUCERS AND AS AN INDUSTRY TO USE THE TECHNOLOGY TOOLS TO THE BEST ABILITIES TO FEED A GROWING FOOD DEMAND IN THE WORLD. .

 

AS MIKE HAS BEEN TELLING US ITS BEEN A LONG DRY WINTER AND AS A RESULT THE WINTER WHEAT CROP HAS TAKEN A HIT. THE LATEST DATA SHOWS JUST 18% OF THE CROP IS CONSIDERED IN GOOD OR GREAT CONDITION. 56% IS RATED POOR TO VERY POOR. CONDITIONS ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE 28% OF THE OKLAHOMA CROP IS RATED GOOD TO EXSENT. THAT'S A 6 POINT IMPROVEMENT AND IN KANSAS 26% IS RATED GOOD OR BETTER UP A POINT. EARLIER THIS WEEK THOUGH WE RECEIVED AN E-MAIL ASKING FOR AN UPDATE ON THE WINTER WHEAT CROP. REGIONAL REPORTER TALKED TO WHEAT GROWERS TO GET A FIRSTHAND ASSESSMENT OF THE CROP.

 

Reporter: AFTER GOOD PRICES AND YIELDS MANY FARMERS ARE ANXIOUS FOR A REPEAT. HOWEVER DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED IN LARGE POCKETS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

 

WE WERE EXTREMELY DRY DURING THE SUMMER AND THE FALL AND WE ARE STILL DRY. WE HAVE HAD A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW, LITFUL BIT OF ICE BUT NOT ENOUGH.

 

IT'S NOT JUST THE DRY CONDITIONS THAT HAVE HURT THE CROP IN THE NUMBER ONE PRODUCING STATE.

 

WE HAVE HAD A COLDER THAN NORMAL WINTER, WE DON'T KNOW -- WE DON'T KNOW IF THE WHEAT WILL GREEN UP WHEN IT WARMS UP. SOME WILL, SOME WON'T.

 

COLORADO IS ALSO DRY AND THE CROP GOT UP OFF TO A TERRIBLE START LAST FALL.

 

WE ARE --IN ALL THE WHEEL TRACKS, EDGES OF THE FIELD DON'T COME UP AND WE PLANTED QUITE DEEP TO TRY TO GET THEM TO COME UP. .

 

SHE SAID COLE --201 20 --.

 

AUGUST WE ONLY HAD A HALF INOF RAIN FROM THEN TO JANUARY AND ONLY ANOTHER HALF INCH SINCE THEN. VERY DRY.

 

CROP CONDITIONS IN TEXAS AREN'T GOOD EITHER WITH AT LEAST HALF THE CROP POOR TO VERY POOR.

 

TEXAS WHEAT CROP LOOKS POOR IN THE HIGH PLAINS AREAS. DOWN IN THE DALLAS AREA THEY HAVE HAD BETTER MOISTURE IN THAT AREA SO THINGS LOOK BETTER. YOU GET UP INTO THE --NORTH IT'S PRETTY WELL JUST REALLY DRY.

 

WITH RATINGS ON WINTER WHEAT LOW IN STATES LIKE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MANY ACRES WILL BE DAMAGED AND HOW MANY WILL HAVE TO BE REPLANTED?

 

WE DON'T THINK IT'S MAYBE AS BAD AS WE ONCE THOUGHT. IT IS STARTING TO GREEN UP SO WE THINK THERE MAY BE HOPE OUT THERE.

 

IN OKLAHOMA, THEY THINK 50% OF THE CROP COULD BE DESTROYED. THE STATES LIKE COLORADO IT'S LESS CERTAIN.

 

IF IT CONTINUES TO NOT HAVE PRECIPITATION WE WON'T PLANT SPRING CROPS ON THEM. IF WE WOULD HAPPEN TO GET A LOT OF SPRING MOISTURE WE WOULD PLANT BACK TO CORN.

 

WITH THE LARGE AMOUNT OF REPLANT TAKERS HOW WILL THAT AFFECT YIELD? FARMERS SAY IT'S TO EARLY TO TELL AND IT DEPENDS IF THEY GET A LATE SPRING FREEZE.

 

WE ARE JUST COMING OUT OF DORMANCY. IF WE GET MOISTURE IT COULD CHANGE IT.

 

THE ENTIRE CROP ISN'T A DISASTER. THERE ARE A FEW BRIGHT SPOTS LIKE IN THE NORTHWEST AND DAKOTA'S. IN SOUTH DAKOTA IT'S UP 22% AND THE CROP IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

 

THE WINTER WHEAT CROP IS IN ABOUT A 65 GOOD RANGE TO ONLY 1% IN THE PORT OF VERY POOR RANGE. OUR WINTER WHEAT --I WOULD SAY IN AVERAGE, AVERAGE PLUS YEAR, GOOD YELLED, PROBABLY IN THAT 50 PLUS RANGE.

 

THE WINTER WHEAT CROP IS -- EVEN THOUGH WINTER WHEAT ACRES WILL BE UP PRODUCTION ISN'T LIKELY TO EXCEED 2010.

 

EARLY ESTIMATES SHOW PRODUCTION DOWN EVEN THOUGH ACRES ARE UP FROM 2010. STAY WITH US. WE WILL BE RIGHT BACK. .

 

WE ALL KNOW TRACTORS ARE ITS TRADITIONAL WORKHOUR HORSES ON FARMS AND RANCHES. THIS WEEKEND WE HEAD OUT TO FLORIDA TO CHECK OUT AN OLD TRACTOR ONCE A WORK HORSE FOR THE AIR FORCE.

 

WITH A LITTLE LUCK IT'LL FIRE UP NOW. .

 

I HAVE BEEN COLLECTING THEM ABOUT TEN, 11. I DID ONE FORD TRACTOR AND THEN FORD ONLIES. THIS IS NOT A NORMAL ONE. THIS IS A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE MOTOR TUG AND THE AIR FORCE USED THEM IN THE 60s, THIS IS 1962, AND THEY USED THEM AS --TO PULL AIRPLANES AROUND, WHATEVER --WHATEVER NEEDED TO BE PULLED BECAUSE THEY HAVE A TORQUE CONVERTER AND WILL PULL ANYTHING THEY NEEDED. I RESTORED THIS ONE I THINK THREE YEARS AGO AND THE NUMBERS ON IT --WHERE THE NUMBERS ASSIGNED TO THIS TRACTOR WHEN IT WAS NEW. WHEN I REDID IT I SAVED THE NUMBERS OFF IT AND PUT THEM BACK ON SO IT WOULD BE ALL ORIGINAL. A LOT OF PEOPLE DON'T KNOW THEY EVER MADE SOMETHING LIKE THIS AND IT'S ONE OF THE ATTENTION GETTERS. IT'S UNIQUE, NOT MANY OF THEM MADE OR LEFT. EVERYTHING IS ORIGINAL BUT THE EXHAUST SYSTEM PUT ON. THE LIGHTS HERE AREN'T ORIGINAL BE ALL OF THE LETTERING ON THE FENDERS IS ORIGINAL THAT WAS ON THE TRACTOR WHEN I GOT IT. IT'S ONE OF MY FAVORITES. I ADDED THE BLACK FENDERS AND THE BLACK GRILL TO GIVE IT A LITTLE DIFFERENT LOOK. GIVE IT IS BEE LOOK.

 

WE MET UP WITH ROBERT AT THE PIONEER PARK DAY'S TRACTOR SHOW IN FLORIDA.

 

TODAY'S COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE GOES TO OUR LADY OF THE ANGEL CATHOLIC CHURCH IN OREGON. THEY CELEBRATED THEIR ANNIVERSARY LAST YEAR. THEY WERE FOUNDED IN 1910. IT WAS THE FIRST CHURCH IN AMERICA FOR THE FATHERS WHO CAME HERE FROM IRELAND MAKING THIS CITY TIMELY SALUTE FOR THIS MARCH WEEKEND. THE CHURCH STARTED --A LIFE OF STEADY GROWTH REQUIRING SEVERAL EXPANSIONS FOR THE CHURCH AND CLASSROOMS. THE SECOND CHURCH WAS BUILT IN 1925, THE NEXT BILING FOLLOWED IN 1956. THE PRESENT BUILDING IS THE 4th. THE CURRENT PASTOR IS FATHER PAUL, OUR THANK YOU TO MIKE SENDING THE HISTORY AND PHOTOGRAPHS. WE WANT TO LEARN ABOUT YOUR CHURCH AS WELL. SALUTES CAN BE SENT TO THE ADDRESS ON THE SCREEN. .

 

I FOUND A POP QUIZ INSIDE THE FARM REPORT MAILBAG THIS WEEK FROM GETTA FROM HER 1871 WEB HOMESTEAD FARM I GOT THIS REQUEST, MY GRANDFATHER WENT FROM WRIGHT COUNTY MONTH TO MAMMOTH ARKANSAS IN 1895 TO BUY CATTLE. VERY HIS CANCELED CHECK. WHAT WAS THE PRICE OF CATTLE IN 1895, HOW MANY COWS COULD HE HAVE BOUGHT? I HAVE BEEN GETTING MORE E-MAIL LIKE THIS STORY PROBLEM AND WHILE I APPRECIATE THE CONFIDENCE MANY OF YOU SEEM TO HAVE IN MY ABILITY TO ANSWER OFF THE WALL QUESTIONS I DON'T HAVE A RESEARCH STAFF TO DO MORE THAN JUST A FEW QUESTIONS LIKE THIS HERE GOES. I FOUND THE PRICE OF LIVE CATTLE COULD HAVE BEEN ABOUT ANYTHING ON FARM PRICES IN 1895 AVERAGED ABOUT $20 A HEAD BUT EXPORTED AROUND $92. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE THE TOP OF THE MARKET SINCE IT INCLUDES VALUABLE BREEDING STOCK. ONLY THREE YEARS EARLIER A MAJOR BUST HAD CATTLE SELLING AS LITTLE AS FIVE DOLLARS. NOW WE HAVE TO PUT IN THE AGE AND SIZE OF THE CATTLE YOUR GRANDFATHER BOUGHT. I DOUBT HE WAS BUYING FAT ONES THE PRICE WOULD BE LESS. NOW AND IN LOCATION THE -- INCREASES THE PRICE. THIS MAKES MY OFFICIAL NUMBER ABOUT TEN DOLLARS A HEAD OR MAYBE AROUND 50 CATTLE. THE BIGGER POINT HERE IS I FIND IT NEARLY A MIRACLE TO BE ABLE TO ACCESS OLD BOOKS AND NEWSPAPERS USING POWERFUL SEARCH TOOLS AND BROAD BAND FROM MY FARM AND ALL IN ABOUT 15 MINUTES. THANK YOU GOOGLE. AS ALWAYS WE WANT TO HEAR FROM YOU. SEND COMMENTS TO MAILBAG AT UNITED STATES FARM REPORT.COM OR LEAVE US A VOICEMAIL. FOR ALL OF US, THANK YOU FOR WATCHING US FARM REPORT. BE SURE TO JOIN US AGAIN NEXT WEEK. WE WILL WORK TO DO EVEN BETTER. .

 

 

 

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