USFR Weekly Recap - May 5-6, 2012

May 5, 2012 09:43 AM
 

JOHN’S OPEN:

Hello and welcome to US Farm Report. I'm John Phipps. Obviously the big news this week has to do with the CME announcement about extended trading hours. What's interesting to me is how enormously this CME group to the challenge to their commodity training dominance. But farmers would castrate competition, they apparently responded with the same begrudgingly let them. Traders were clamoring

around-the-clock markets but no business can count on much loyalty these days. The whole grain trade will have to alter habits to adapt I think, as most of us only have about 10 good hours per day to give.

 

CME:

Thank you, John. The biggest commodities trading floor is extending its hours, a change that could have a big impact on both traders and farmers. The CME group voted to expand electronic trading hours at the Chicago board of trade or oil and grain futures. The trading hours in the iconic trade will continue. But customers will have 22 hours of access to key the market. The slap in the release prices sensitive data like supply demand reports. The markets will be open to that but I think we also need to focus some of the lesser followed or maybe not as obvious reports, weekly access sales reports, daily USDA export sales announcements. All of those things could change the markets time at any time in the markets will be trading when that data comes out. Initially the launch date was May 14, but because they were not officially notified the start date has been pushed back. Also, the USDA office is examining the issue of whether to adjust the report times.

 

PLANTING:

Farmers across the US have been taking advantage of good planting conditions. They just about doubled the amount of corn planted from the previous week. As of Monday, 53% of corn was planted nationwide and the five- year average was 27%. Illinois was 79% planted, Indiana 70% and both of those were 50 points ahead of beverage. And they have had an entire week to further advance their planting. Half of Iowa’s corn is planted, up 41 points from the previous week.

 

BSE:

Following last week's BSE case, South Korea and Taiwan have dispatched food safety delegates to inspect slaughterhouses and laboratories. South Korea is the number four expert market. The country stepped up inspections after the case developed.

 

CROP WATCH:

Crop watch focuses on winter wheat. The wheat quality counts conducted its annual tour this week trekking through Kansas and neighboring states. This photo is from Martin County Kansas. It shows dry soil but overall the crop looked good. The yield estimate is 49.1 bushels. Tyne Morgan was in the Texas panhandle this week; this farmer expects 70 bushels to the acre. It’s usually 55 but after last year's drought, he is pleased. Before heading to break we want to tell you about the chance to ride away on a brand-new Rhino 500. The side-by-side utility vehicle has lots of cool accessories, Head to USFarmReport.com for more contest details.

 

ROUNDTABLE:

Our roundtable guests this week here at US Farm Report are Brian Basting and Andy Schuster, and we were talking off camera about some of the things that were coming up. We have a new report coming up this week which will be another thing we'll talk about, and then CME and 22 are trading for all the markets. The other thing is the early wheat harvest and you talked about two crops of corn. We have the old crop in the new crop. Now start with that topic Brian, what do you think of their quest. Very tight supplies, we currently have row crop corn. It's a historically strong basis level, unheard-of; the inverse of May and July futures is approaching $0.50 per bushel. That's one apple if you will come with the orange would be, I think we will plant more corn acres in the US in March. Some of the best planting operation that I’ve seen this spring, and the corn is off to a great start. The prices come down but are still attractive, so you have potentially a record crop for the new crop. I think the old corn deal will be a big issue going into the summer. I think you have seen Decatur paid 40 over, three or four times this year. And that has to be about the highest they've ever paid I would think. And I always thought once we got into June would have a real issue sourcing corn. I thought it would take about that long before things got really crazy. I thought it happened during the expiration of the main contract and all these experts that we have been booking, or we let the price of corn remain too low, we would have a really hard time getting a source. Well, I think it's about right in the next shipments that are getting booked for export will be even harder to get. You could actually run into a scenario like Minneapolis, like we did way back and wait. Because I think it will be hard to find the corn and I would expect that we will take out the January high in corn with the old crop contract and I think that happens in June and July. So what has happened in the last week or so in the Chicago board of trade? You are saying that corn will go up? Old crop corn, we are talking about. You think it will blow up their quest? While there is a window of very volatile trading, we have poultry and livestock whether it's Kansas, Oklahoma or the delta on the week. If you are looking at a substantial substitution, between now and then it could be crazy. Like Andy said we are looking at historically strong basis levels. I do think that could be something that could derail an old crop corn. Well, progressive planting is good, but without moisture that's coming through, it has kind of slowed down but we will still plan a lot of acres. But you indicate they don't plan acres like they did last time and there was a report that came out that said they will find even more acres than that, and also more acres of soybeans. And I don't know where we will get all these acres. While I suppose they get stolen from rice and wheat and maybe Minneapolis wheat. But I suppose we will see that stuff increase. Everyone says it will be bearish corn and the carryout will be basically a death sentence. We have ballad sheets that are narrowed down to about as small of a demand base as we could use on corn, and my attention is, always kind of look at the carryout as one carryout, whether it be corn, beans or week, altogether. But the market rallied at $15, and so we got a price where china doesn't like the price and doesn't want to own those beads at that price anymore so they start doing new stuff. They are looking at the other carryout, where it all becomes one and I think they would buy all the excess corn, new crop corn, which we would permit them to buy. We are back with our roundtable here today, and one of the things that we were talking about in her statement was --when you were finishing up with what China had done last week, actually in terms of purchases. Can you bring us up to date on what will happen in the future? While I think the bean purchases have gotten caught up. It took a longtime code to do it, but conveniently they were about 30% or 40% behind in purchases and now the market has advanced about 40% at the same time, and it's like, I don't think anyone wants to pay this price for beans. And if I have one trait as a farmer and would be selling as much new crop as he could stand it, and I would be wary about what I put into the market until I make my money.

So whether it was so poor or only this year, we will probably lose half or all of it. So you're telling me that you don't think beans will collect much more? Because he said, don't worry about $60 beans the corner. While we could hunt for other commodities, they could buy beans or oil, these are all things that the country is doing now. Well what’s the producer going to do in order to be able to maximize his profits? If the producer wants to look at the inverse between new and old crop prices for corn and beans, in both cases the market is basically putting a stiff penalty they can always look at different tools out there, but the market will tell producers there's a penalty for storing an old crop in a new crop. Via student of the market. If the market tells you it won't pay to store than it probably won't pay the store. While the template is to talk about is the report coming out because a government report sent to the markets at this point in time. Do you think we will see some that intends at what should we watch for? I think the reports are very bearish coming in next week on corn, but you are also using the smallest demand base that we have. We have crunched the demand base back to the last couple years with high prices and rationing, and I think if we produced. You will also be the demand base get bigger with it at the same time. What will really be interesting is when we start doing the opener to work during the session, it will be fun. Well let's talk about 20 to our trade with the reports and what happens. I'm not sure it will affect our volume but it will affect the volatility of the markets. Whether it's China, strictly typed stocks, cutback in South America production, which certainly is a recipe for volatility. It's certainly a recipe if you are releasing a report during the trading session and the reports of a surprise one way or the other, for example. So it may be good or not be good. I think it will be fun. So how will that change your operation and/or offices at this period of time? And is there an opportunity now for producer’s maybe to take electronic trading into his own office and do some of the self? That's a good question. I think all of us are in a transition time learning how towers will impact our business. Just have to see how things evolve and when reports will be released and so on and so forth. But a producer will be more content more with more opportunities on the market opens. They may be opportunities throughout the day that were present before, and he may just have to order them for example and have a marketing plan in place. While I always told them to take the opportunity when it's there. It's not like we couldn't have seen the big change in their commodity market hours coming. Most other markets have adapted to local global participation wants to go. But we are not particularly adept at recognizing spillover threats. So while most of us are not looking forward to being on its 22 hours per day, we could be missing a much more important implication. As others have pointed out, the response to market needs like crop reports will be greatly changed. It's largely unknown is how hot the rhythmic computer training is much more than automatic transactions driven by current market data. For example, software has been developed that breed standard earning reports. Nobody has to take the press release from apple and type in the revenue and cost the blues. In other words, says our markets will penetrate during the release of weather reports and weather bulletins, by the time your screen vote on your computer, it could be all over. Prices won't be any more useful than 10 minute delay numbers. While reports could be rescheduled for the brief two- hour window every day or weekend, but I don't think that will happen, consequently waiting to see the numbers carries more risk and is less reward. So while we can look forward to checking our smartphones even more obsessively, we should be remembering that we could even be reading ancient history when we do. Let us know what you think.

 

 

2ND HALF:

JOHNS OPEN:

Hello and welcome to US Farm Report. Welcome I’m John Phipps. We have been talking much about events in Europe but it may be time. Things that can ripple across the pond are brewing in Great Britain, Holland, France and Germany documents of the ongoing drama in Greece, Italy and Spain. Events seem to be pushing towards another test of data availability of the Euro. Any added stress to our global financial system is hardly welcome news. I think the common Agriculture policy is at great risk and that would really broil grain and protein markets. So watch the weather at home but glance across the Atlantic occasionally. The Government is speeding up its E-Coli testing process. Scientists say it will make tracking the deadly bacteria and subsequent recalls happen more quickly. Currently, as it waits to start back the investigation until after a second test determines the bacteria are present. The USDA says by starting sooner it will allow the shows to find the source of contamination one or two days faster than the current method.

 

Economy:

It is graduation time at the Universities across the country, but unfortunately many college graduates won't have jobs when they get their diploma. The slow economy is partially to blame. But for AG students, the picture is bright. Between the years of 2010 and 2013, more jobs will be available in Agriculture and food related businesses that there are qualified graduates to get done. Good production, fuel production, environmental issues around food and fuel, and certainly conservation of natural resources. So what we are seeing is a very strong cultural economy, while the rest of the general economy has had struggles, and that means struggles in terms of employment. He teaches at Purdue and he says job placement for Purdue grads is usually around 90 or 95%.

 

Planting:

The mild weather in March and April is helping America’s partners get their guild planted at record or near record pace. For instance 53% of the nation's corn is now planted and the averages 97%. In Iowa, the amount of corn planted 41 points. In other words they planted about 6 million acres of corn in one week.

 

Spirit of the Heartland:

At colleges across the country, kids are preparing for graduation in a variety of ways. In voluntary state some are rolling up their sleeves to clean up the Tennessee River. Check then he shows us this report from the beauty institute of Agriculture.

 

There is mankind's degree and then there's nature's degree, either way at the back sass, views and potentially wildlife habitat along the waterway, the Knoxville creek which circles the campus and flows into the Tennessee River. These are students of the College of Agricultural Sciences. Today they are collecting trash and removing invasive tests pcs. Lambert is a graduating senior and so is Bio Systems Engineering student Matt. He hates to see trash in the water or along the shoreline. He's joined by sophomore Animal Science major cameras when his dad taught her the importance of caring for our environment. He's always been against littering and he goes out and helps me pick up litter along the road. This is just another way for me to help. While the students had a busy day, it's not nearly as bad luck or wise.

Several river projects have had a big impact here and literally tons of trash has been collected that used to be under or near the water. Third creek is a pretty place for a run or bike ride, but downtown creeks are always a challenge to keep clean. It's hard in the urban environment because you have so much of this hard skate. You have this warm water and the flashing on the streams. Doctor Logan is an Oncologist who teaches a class called Water and Civilization about how society deals with water supply issues. One of the things we try to teach them a citizen involvement and engagement, and you have to take ownership of the water that you live in. Soon there are bags collected trash and a big pile of brush to discard. The species will be planted here including weeping willows for shade. But for now, third creek is a much cleaner place all because of a volunteer effort to take back the landscape. Chuck tells us many of the students are also working on campus landscaping projects along with the University wide recycling program.

 

Tractor Tales:

Al is back with us now, what are tractor tales this week.

We have a rare tractor from Michigan. This 1937 hard part 70s was one of the last of its kind. Daughter was proud to have it in his collection of antique tractors. The last tractor made by Oliver with the name on it, this was the last year of production and one of the few left with steel wheels on it. That was an option throughout the also have river tires available, electric start option, which was also available. This one bought with the rear steel and rubber so we have to find a steal for it, which wasn't really hard, but not exactly a common thing out there anymore. Is very hard to haul around, We have to lay planks out and widget on and Wichita. Sometimes we wish it was on Robert for that reason, but so many people look at it, and they wonder what we have on there. But it's from the factory, that's what all of them had on them before you have river tires. That's exactly how it would have been in 35 or 37. As far as the original colors we come up with, the colors darker than the Oliver 70 color which would have come out and 37 or 39. That you will have that with any collector of any tractor. People look at it not in awe, but his original. We have all the electrical equipment and the light-skinned starter and everything that wasn't tangled. That was one of the new style tractors especially for Oliver.

 

Church Salute:

Today's country Church salute goes into the Baptist church and will annoy. It's been around 175 years. In 1836 families settled in central Illinois from Virginia. The families were instrumental in forming the church. Their first pastor arrived in 1837 and the congregation that a member's homes are many years until they built their first church. The church was originally named the Paul Creek Baptist Church of Christ. Congratulations to Rosetta Baptist church, and as always, we want to learn about your home church as well, so the list can be sent to the address on the screen.

 

Mail Bag:

Time now for our weekly look inside the old farm report mailbag. David Sours disputes that position that cash is no longer king. We invented a new hero, and the strategy is a return of your assets rather than the return on your assets, a strategy that has the least amount of risk with cash. David, your view is widely shared, but I think it reinforces my point. Many are so afraid of losing asset quickly; they will pay a bank or the government to hold onto their money. This perception of universal risk may not be entirely accurate, even if we have entered a new phase of conditions there are places to store plants. They were enjoying three or 4%. That looks like royalty to me. And there are other assets gold, apple computer or oil drilling companies. This pervasive fear that has many people hoarding trillions in cash like assets. Now, just add in the possibility of inflation and the cost of choosing cash becomes painful. The King may not be dead, but if interest rates are the wages are honored, but clearly, King is clearly unemployed.

 

Yamaha:

Finally this morning a great opportunity to add a little more power to your farm, ranch or homestead. We have teamed up with a Yamaha for the ride way with the Rhino giveaway. It has a windshield, some top, cargo bed box and a wage. There are two ways to enter. Go on to the link at the top of the page. You could also send us a postcard. Be sure to include your name, address and phone number. They will accept one entry per person. The winner will be announced the weekend of May 26.

As always, we want to hear from you, send comments to mailbag@usfarmreport.com or leave us a voice mail at 800-792-4329.
 

THIS WEEK ON U.S. FARM REPORT

EPISODE # 2021
MAY 5-6, 2012

 

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