USFR Weekly Recap - October 9-10, 2010

November 2, 2010 08:30 AM
 


THIS WEEK ON U.S. FARM REPORT
EPISODE #1939
OCTOBER 9-10, 2010

JOHN’S OPEN: HELLO AND WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT, I'M JOHN PHIPPS. IF YOU THOUGHT LAST WEEK'S GRAIN STOCKS REPORT WAS MIND-BLOWING, THIS WEEK'S EPISODE LIVED UP TO THE SAME EXCITEMENT. AL WILL GIVE US THE DETAILS IN A MOMENT, BUT THE SAFE THING TO SAY IS WE CAN GROW A POOR CORN CROP HERE IN THE U.S. AFTER A FEW YEARS OF REMARKABLE YIELDS, MANY HAD BECOME CONVINCED WE HAD CORN PRODUCTION PRETTY WELL FIGURED OUT. AND TO BE FAIR, SOME AREAS DID SEE WONDERFUL NUMBERS. BUT EVEN THE MOST ADVANCED SEED AND MACHINERY CAN'T OVERCOME EVERYTHING THE WEATHER HAS THROWN AT US. BUT PRODUCERS ARE NOT STANDING STILL - AND WE'RE BUILDING A GAME PLAN TO HANDLE YEARS LIKE THIS BETTER. FUNNY HOW HIGH PRICES CAN INSPIRE SUCH DEDICATION. TIME NOW FOR THE HEADLINES.....HERE'S AL PELL

USDA REPORT: IN THE SEQUEL TO LAST WEEKS SURPRISING GRAIN STOCKS REPORT, THE USDA ADDED MORE STUNNING NUMBERS TO THE MARKETS. OFFICIALS VERIFIED WHAT MANY PRODUCERS HAVE BEEN SEEING ON CORN YIELD MONITORS. AVERAGE CORN YIELD WAS DROPPED A BREATH-TAKING 6.7 BUSHELS PER ACRE TO 155.8. PRODUCTION IS PEGGED AT 12.7 BILLION BUSHELS. FOR BEANS THE MARKET WAS EXPECTING SLIGHTLY HIGHER YIELDS, BUT THE USDA LOWERED EXPECTED RESULTS TO 44.4 - STILL A RECORD BUT BELOW LAST MONTH. ADDING UP ALL THE CHANGES IN PRODUCTION AND USE, THE CARRYOUT FOR CORN NEXT YEAR WAS MOVED BELOW THE PSYCHOLOGICAL 1-BILLION BUSHEL NUMBER TO BARELY OVER 900 MILLION BUSHELS. SOY CARRYOUT PLUMMETED TO 265 MILLION BUSHELS. BOTH NUMBERS WERE SHARPLY BELOW ANALYSTS EXPECTATIONS. WHEAT NUMBERS WERE IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS BUT STILL REVISED LOWER.

CANADIAN WHEAT: TWO OF THE WORLD'S LEADING WHEAT GROWERS ARE REPORTING PROBLEMS. IN CANADA - THE WORLD'S SECOND LARGEST EXPORTER - PRODUCTION IS DOWN 17%. CANADIAN GROWERS FOUGHT WET WEATHER ALL YEAR LONG.

RUSSIA GRAIN: IN RUSSIA, A BAN ON EXPORTS MAY REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL NEXT JULY. UNLIKE CANADA, DROUGHT AND RECORD TEMPERATURES DECIMATED RUSSIAN WHEAT FIELDS THIS YEAR. AS A RESULT, HARVEST WILL BE LESS THAN 66 MILLION TONS...ELEVEN MILLION TONS BELOW WHAT THE COUNTRY NEEDS ITSELF.

MARKETING RALLY: I'D LIKE TO TAKE A MOMENT NOW TO PERSONALLY INVITE YOU TO THE 2010 MARKETING RALLY COMING THIS DECEMBER JUST OUTSIDE CHICAGO. THIS SECOND ANNUAL EVENT WILL BRING TOGETHER SIXTEEN OF THE BEST MARKETING MINDS IN AGRICULTURE - INCLUDING MANY OF THE ANALYSTS YOU SEE RIGHT HERE ON U.S. FARM REPORT. IT'S A GREAT CHANCE TO SHARPEN YOUR MARKETING SKILLS FOR THE YEAR AHEAD. THE TWO-DAY EVENT IS SET FOR DECEMBER 1ST AND 2ND AT THE PHEASANT RUN RESORT IN ST. CHARLES, ILLINOIS. FOR ALL THE DETAILS, GIVE US A CALL OR HEAD ONLINE TO WWW.MARKETINGRALLY.COM . I'LL BE THERE AS WELL - SO I HOPE YOU CAN JOIN US.

ROUNDTABLE: JIM BOWER, MARK GOLD

JOHN’S WORLD: WHILE MANY OF US ON FARMS WERE LOOKING TO WASHINGTON FOR THE CROP ESTIMATE, THERE WERE A FEW OTHER ISSUES THERE AS WELL. ONE IS THE ON-GOING STRUGGLE TO UNWIND THE MESS THAT IS OUR MORTGAGE MARKET. THE BUZZWORD OF THE DAY IS UNCERTAINTY, AND DESPITE WHAT PROPONENTS THINK IT DOESN'T REFER ONLY TO THE BUSH TAX CUTS. FOR WAY TOO LONG, OUR ECONOMY UNDERPRICED RISK, SINCE WE SIMPLY DIDN'T SEE MUCH. NOW, AFTER SOME SEVERE SHOCKS WERE ARE PROBABLY OVERPRICING RISK - REDUCING CREDIT FLOWS TO TRICKLES. THIS DOES NOT INSPIRE CONFIDENCE TO PLAN FOR THE FUTURE. I CAN'T SEE ANY ACTION BY CONGRESS, THE WHITE HOUSE OR THE FEDERAL RESERVE THAT WILL ALLAY THESE FEARS QUICKLY. IF HISTORY IS ANY JUDGE, WE SIMPLY OUTLIVE THEM BY WORKING OUR WAY THROUGH THE ISSUES, SUCH AS RESOLVING THE MILLIONS OF MORTGAGES ONE AT A TIME. IN FACT, MOST OF THE ECONOMIC MESS WILL REQUIRE LONG-TERM SACRIFICE AND ADJUSTMENT. ONE PREDICTION I READ THIS WEEK WAS FOR A DECADE OF SLOW GROWTH IN THE U-S FOLLOWED BY TWO MORE DECADES OF SLOW GROWTH. THIS SEEMS ABOUT RIGHT TO ME. BIG HOLES TAKE SOME TIME TO FILL IN. MAKING A LONG-TERM COMMITMENT TO THIS HARD WORK WOULD NOT JUST START US IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION, BUT WOULD REMOVE MUCH UNCERTAINTY. AFTER ALL, AN UNEXCITING BUT BELIEVABLE FORECAST IS STILL A FORECAST - AND ONE WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO MAKE HAPPEN. LET US KNOW WHAT YOU THINK.... SEND EMAILS TO INFO-AT-U-S-FARM-REPORT-DOT-COM OR CALL AND LEAVE US A VOICE MAIL.

2ND HALF:
JOHN’S OPEN: HELLO AND WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT, I'M JOHN PHIPPS. LAST WEEKEND I WENT TO MY 40TH COLLEGE REUNION. SOME TRULY OLD FRIENDS FROM MY ENGINEERING COLLEGE - ROSE-HULMAN - HAD DINNER TOGETHER. THE EVENING LEFT ME WITH MANY REFLECTIONS. FOR EXAMPLE, ONE CLASSMATE IS NOW THE PRESIDENT OF ONE OF THE LARGEST INDUSTRIAL CONSTRUCTION COMPANIES IN THE WORLD. THERE WERE LAWYERS AND PHYSICIANS, RESEARCHERS AND CONSULTANTS, AND A SMATTERING OF RETIRED ENGINEERS - AND ONE FARMER. THE BINDING LINK FOR ALL OF US WAS OUR EDUCATION IN ENGINEERING AND SCIENCE. IT OPENED MORE DOORS THAN WE IMAGINED IN 1970. IT STILL CAN. THE NEED CONTINUES FOR MORE YOUNG PEOPLE TO CONSIDER THIS TYPE OF TRAINING. LET'S GET STARTED WITH THE HEADLINES AND AL PELL....

COLONY COLLAPSE: THANK YOU JOHN. SCIENTISTS HAVE DISCOVERED SOME NEW CLUES THAT MAY EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A CURE FOR COLONY COLLAPSE DISORDER -- OR CCD. THAT MYSTERIOUS SYNDROME HAS LED TO A SHARP DECLINE IN THE NUMBER OF BEE HIVES COAST-TO-COAST. UNIVERSITY RESEARCHERS IN MONTANA SAY SAMPLES COLLECTED FROM AFFECTED HIVES INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF BOTH A FUNGUS AND A VIRUS. UP UNTIL NOW, THE VIRUS WAS PREVIOUSLY UNKNOWN TO NORTH AMERICA. RESEARCHERS DON'T KNOW IF THE TWO PATHOGENS CAUSE CCD OR WHETHER THE COLONIES ARE MORE LIKELY TO SUCCUMB TO THE COMBINATION. COLONY COLLAPSE IS A HUGE PROBLEM BECAUSE THE BEES ARE NEEDED TO POLLINATE NUMEROUS CROPS.

FRESH VEGES: MOTHERS AND GOVERNMENT PROMOTION AREN'T WINNING WHEN IT COMES TO FRESH VEGETABLES. A NEW REPORT FROM THE CDC SAYS ONLY 26% OF THE NATION'S ADULTS EAT VEGGIES THREE OR MORE TIMES A DAY. THE AMOUNT OF VEGGIES AMERICANS ARE EATING IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IT WAS 10 YEARS AGO...A FIGURE THE CDC CALLS "DISAPPOINTING". DESPITE TWO DECADES OF PUBLIC HEALTH INITIATIVES, STRICTER DIETARY GUIDELINES, AN EXPLOSION OF FARMER'S MARKETS AND THE LAUNCH OF PRE-MIXED SALAD BAG...EATING HABITS ARE NOT CHANGING. THE RESULTS ARE LESS THAN HALF OF WHAT HEALTH OFFICIALS SET AS GOALS NEARLY A DECADE AGO.

4H SCIENCE DAY: IT'S A TROUBLING TREND...THERE ARE NOT ENOUGH YOUNG PEOPLE IN THIS COUNTRY LOOKING TO PURSUE CAREERS IN SCIENCE, ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY. TO HELP MEET THIS NEED, A GROUP SOMETIMES ASSOCIATED WITH AGRICULTURE HAS KICKED OFF A NATIONAL EFFORT. IT'S CALLED THE 4-H NATIONAL YOUTH SCIENCE DAY. LAST WEDNESDAY YOUNG PEOPLE ACROSS THE COUNTRY CONDUCTED A SCIENCE EXPERIMENT AT THE SAME TIME. ORGANIZERS SAY THE GOAL IS TO GET KIDS HOOKED ON SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY. THE GOAL OF THE NATIONAL 4-H SCIENCE EXPERIMENT IS TO PREPARE ONE MILLION YOUNGSTERS TO EXCEL IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BY 2013.

ULTIMATE FARM QUEST: LAST WEEK I MENTIONED HOW I WAS DEEP-TILLING SOME OF MY FIELDS THIS FALL BECAUSE STANDING WATER THIS SPRING COMPACTED THE SOIL...AND THAT HURT SOME CORN YIELDS. IN THIS WEEK'S ULTIMATE FARM QUEST, OHIO FARMER DOUG RUPP TELLS US HE'S MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HIS TILLAGE PRACTICES. RUPP SIGNED A CONTRACT WITH USDA TO BE PART OF THE CONSERVATION STEWARDSHIP PROGRAM. IT'S A FIVE YEAR COMMITMENT WHICH CALLS FOR REDUCED TILLAGE ON FIELDS IN THE CSP. IN THIS CASE, RUPP MUST LEAVE 30% OF HIS CROP RESIDUE UNTILLED.

HEARTLAND: THE CATTLE INDUSTRY IS STARING AT WHAT IT HOPES IS A STRONG 2011. HERD NUMBERS ARE DOWN, DEMAND IS STEADY AND PRICES ARE HIGHER. THAT HAD PRODUCERS SMILING AT THIS YEAR'S 2010 NATIONAL ANGUS CONFERENCE AND TOUR IN SOUTHERN MONTANA. OUR CREW TRAVELED TO BIG SKY COUNTRY WHERE RAISING CATTLE IS MORE THAN A LIVELIHOOD, IT'S A LIFESTYLE. CLINTON GRIFFITHS HAS TODAY'S SPIRIT OF THE HEARTLAND. FOR ONLINE COVERAGE OF THE EVENT, HEAD TO WWW.NATIONALANGUSCONFERENCE.COM .

BAXTER BLACK: WHEN IT COMES TO BULL VERSUS MACHINE, WHO COMES OUT THE WINNER? BAXTER BLACK JOINS US NOW WITH THE ANSWER...NEXT WEEK, BAXTER TAKES A TRIP TO THE CAR WASH...UNTIL THEN, CHECK OUT HIS WORK ONLINE AT WWW.BAXTERBLACK.COM . WHEN WE COME BACK, TRACTOR TALES FEATURES AN OLD FORD MACHINE PLUS WE'LL HAVE OUR COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE...PLEASE STAY WITH US.

TRACTOR TALES: WE'RE OFF TO THE SUNSHINE STATE FOR THIS WEEK'S "TRACTOR TALES". WE CAUGHT UP WITH ROBERT SMITH WHO TELLS US ALL ABOUT A RARE YELLOW FORD 2,000. IF YOU HAVE ANY INFORMATION FOR ROBERT, PLEASE SEND A NOTE TO INFO@USFARMREPORT.COM .

CHURCH SALUTE: OUR FIRST COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE GOES TO THE NORTH ROME BAPTIST CHURCH IN ONSTED, MICHIGAN. THEY MARKED THEIR 150TH ANNIVERSARY IN AUGUST THIS YEAR. THE SIXTEEN FOUNDERS WERE PROTRAYED IN A SPECIAL DRAMATIZATION AT THAT SERVICE. THE CHURCH BUILDING IS UNCHANGED SINCE ITS CONSTRUCTION IN 1860, EXCEPT FOR REMOVAL OF THE BELFRY. ALTHOUGH THE CONGREGATION DISBANDED FROM 1924 TO 1944, THE CURRENT MEMBERSHIP OF 200 HAVE AN ACTIVE ARRAY OF MINISTRIES, INCLUDING A CHOIR. THEY ARE LED BY PASTOR FRITZ KRUSE. WE THANK TAMMY STALEY FOR SENDING US THE INFORMATION. WE TRAVEL TO THE HIGHEST POINT IN ILLINOIS - SCALES MOUND - FOR OUR SECOND SALUTE THIS MORNING. THE SCALES MOUND UNITED METHODIST CHURCH BEGAN IN 1831 IN THE LOG HOME OF ELIJAH CHARLES. A STONE CHURCH WAS BUILT IN 1854, AND REPLACED BY THE PRESENT STRUCTURE IN 1883. THE ORIGINAL CHURCH HAD BEAUTIFUL GOTHIC STAINED GLASS WINDOWS, WHICH WERE REPLACED WITH ART GLASS AFTER WORLD WAR I. ONE UNIQUE ACTIVITY IS THE "PULLING FOR JESUS" TRACTOR PULL" FUND RAISER THIS AUGUST. OUR THANKS TO RICK WEBSTER. AS ALWAYS WE WANT TO LEARN ABOUT YOUR HOME CHURCH AS WELL... SALUTES CAN BE SENT TO THE ADDRESS ON THE SCREEN. STAY WITH US - THE MAILBAG IS NEXT.

MAILBAG: TIME NOW FOR OUR WEEKLY LOOK INSIDE THE FARM REPORT MAILBAG....DAVE THOMPSON, AN EGG PRODUCER IN PEARL CITY, ILLINOIS HAS THIS COMMENT: I WOULD SUGGEST YOU SPEND AS MUCH TIME AS POSSIBLE HELPING LIVESTOCK FARMERS FIGHT OFF THE MOUNTING CRITICISM OF LARGE FARMS. WE ARE YOUR CUSTOMERS......SUPPORTING US IS JUST GOOD BUSINESS. DAVE, THANKS FOR SHARING YOUR VIEW, AND I WOULD REMIND VIEWERS THEY CAN READ THE FULL EMAIL ON OUR WEBSITE. THERE ARE REASONS I DON'T SPEND A LOT OF TIME CHEERLEADING OUR LIVESTOCK INDUSTRY. FIRST, I HAVE DOUBTS WHETHER THE COST-BENEFIT RATIO IS WHAT WE THINK IT IS FOR THIS TYPE OF PUBLIC RELATIONS EFFORT. IT IS POSSIBLE WE SIMPLY ATTRACT MORE ATTENTION THAT SPAWNS MORE DEBATE. I SEE THE CURRENT CRITICISMS AS LESS THREATENING THAN MANY SIMPLY BECAUSE OUR SYSTEM, ALBEIT FLAWED HAS SOME VERY POWERFUL ECONOMIC FORCES IN ITS FAVOR. NOR DOES THE RISE OF AGRARIAN AGRICULTURE REPRESENT SIGNIFICANT COMPETITION FOR LARGE FARMS. IN ADDITION, I DON'T DISAGREE WITH SOME OF THE CRITICISM. WE COULD TREAT ANIMALS BETTER, AND LOSE VERY LITTLE ECONOMICALLY. OUR LIVESTOCK SECTOR SHOULD HAVE TO STAND ACCOUNTABLE TO ITS CUSTOMERS JUST LIKE MY GRAIN BUYERS SHAPE HOW I PRODUCE CORN AND BEANS. FINALLY, I HAVE LONG REMINDED GRAIN PRODUCERS OF THE IMPORTANCE OF OUR LIVESTOCK SECTOR AND HOW ETHANOL SUBSIDIES AND MANDATES ARE UNFAIR MARKET DISTORTIONS. RIGGED MARKETS FOR FEED ARE A FAR GREATER DANGER THAN PROTESTORS, IN MY OPINION. AS ALWAYS, WE WANT TO HEAR FROM YOU, SEND COMMENTS TO INFO@USFARMREPORT.COM OR LEAVE US A VOICE MAIL AT 800-792-4329.

 

 

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