USFR Weekly Recap - September 17-18, 2011

September 19, 2011 06:33 AM
 

THIS WEEK ON U.S. FARM REPORT
EPISODE #1988
SEPTEMBR 17-18, 2011

JOHN’S OPEN: HELLO AND WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT, I'M JOHN PHIPPS. LESS THAN TEN YEARS AGO IT WAS POSSIBLE FOR CORN PRICES TO VARY NO MORE THAN ABOUT 35 CENTS OVER AN ENTIRE YEAR. FOR YOUNGER PRODUCERS THIS MAY SEEM IMPOSSIBLE, BUT SERIOUSLY, A 5 CENT MOVE WAS BREATH-TAKING. ONE CONSEQUENCE OF LARGE SURPLUSES AND MORIBUND PRICES WAS A MUCH SMALLER DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN DOING GOOD MARKETING AND, SAY, MY MARKETING. NOT SO TODAY. MARKET RANGES OF DOLLARS DURING THE YEAR MEAN INCOME SPREADS OF HUNDREDS OF DOLLARS PER ACRE. ODDLY, THOUGH THE PRINCIPLES BEHIND MARKETS ARE NOT MUCH CHANGED. BEATING THE AVERAGE IS REALLY, REALLY HARD, AND LARGELY A MATTER OF LUCK. BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS THE AVERAGE ISN'T SO BAD ANYMORE. TIME NOW FOR THE HEADLINES.....HERE'S AL PELL.

USDA PRODUCTION: THANKS JOHN. USDA CONFIRMED THIS WEEK WHAT MANY FARMERS IN THE CORNBELT ALREADY KNOW - THERE'S A SMALLER CORN CROP OUT THERE. USDA IS NOW CALLING FOR A CROP OF JUST UNDER 12.5 BILLION BUSHELS, A REDUCTION OF MORE THAN 400 MILLION BUSHELS FROM ITS AUGUST FORECAST. THE AVERAGE YIELD FORECAST WAS ALSO LOWERED - BY FIVE BUSHELS. THIS CROP WOULD STILL BE BIGGER THAN LAST YEAR AND THE THIRD LARGEST ON RECORD.
NOW TO SOYBEANS, USDA INCREASED THE SIZE OF THE CROP FROM ITS AUGUST REPORT. THE AG DEPARTMENT PUTS SOY AT 3.08 BILLION BUSHELS, BASED ON AN AVERAGE YIELD OF 41.8 BUSHELS AN ACRE, UP ABOUT A HALF BUSHEL FROM AUGUST.

WASDE CORN SUPPLIES: IN THE SUPPLY LEDGER, CORN ENDING STOCKS ARE STILL TIGHT. FOR THE CURRENT MARKETING YEAR, THE SMALLER PRODUCTION FORECAST FORCED A REDUCTION IN THE PROJECTED LEVEL OF CONSUMPTION AND YEAR-ENDING STOCKS.

END USERS: THANKS CHIP. OF COURSE, TIGHT GRAIN SUPPLIES DON'T MAKE IT ANY EASIER FOR END-USERS. THIS WEEK, BEEF, PORK AND POULTRY GROUPS WENT BEFORE A HOUSE AG SUB-COMMITTEE WHICH IS INVESTIGATING FEED AVAILABILITY. THEY SAID THE GOVERNMENT MANDATE FOR CORN-ETHANOL USE IS CRIPPLING THEIR INDUSTRIES. AND THE SHORT SUPPLY OF CORN THIS FALL MAKES MATTER WORSE.

CROP WATCH: A COLD BLAST HIT THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS MID-WEEK. AND THAT WAS JUST TOO EARLY FOR MANY CROPS.  IN MCLEOD COUNTY, MINNESOTA, THEY GOT A HARD FREEZE ON THURSDAY MORNING. A GROWER TELLS US HIS THERMOMETER MEASURED 26 DEGREES. HIS BEANS NEEDED AT LEAST TWO MORE WEEKS BEFORE TEMPS LIKE THAT. IN KANSAS, WINTER WHEAT SEEDING HAS STARTED, THOUGH FARMERS ARE ANXIOUS FOR SOME MOISTURE. "NASS" SAYS 3% IS PLANTED...WHICH IS JUST BEHIND AVERAGE. SOIL MOISTURE IS STRUGGLING. THREE QUARTERS OF THE STATE'S TOP SOIL IS CALLED SHORT OR VERY SHORT. AND IN HENRY COUNTY, OHIO, A GROWER SAYS HIS FARM GOT SIX INCHES OF RAIN FROM REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM LEE LAST WEEK. THAT WAS A BIG HELP FOR HIS SOY CROP WHICH IS STILL GREEN. HE THINKS HE COULD GET 50 BUSHELS AN ACRE.

ROUND TABLE: ROUND TABLE GUESTS, WE HAVE RICHARD BROCK, AND BILL BIEDERMANN, I WILL GO TO YOU FIRST. WHAT ARE THE THINGS THAT ARE REAL IMPORTANT AND JUST GIVE ME A COUPLE. THERE HAS TO BE TWO DOZEN. I THINK THE BIG THING IS ONE WHAT ARE THE MACRO ECONOMICS. OKAY. WHAT'S GOING ON IN EUROPE, WITH THE BANKING SYSTEM AND HOW IS THAT DRIVING THE FUND ACTIVITY AND THEN CERTAINLY THE SUPPLY AND DEMAND. WILL WE HAVE ENOUGH CARRY OVER? I'M SURPRISED YOU DIDN'T SAY ANYTHING ABOUT THE FREEZE THAT WE ARE SUPPOSED TO HAVE IN NORTHERN PART OF THE UNITED STATES. OBVIOUSLY IT DIDN'T HIT MUCH THIS WEEK. CORN DOWN ABOUT 47 CENTS, LOWEST CLOSE IN SIX WEEKS IN CORN. BEANS THE SAME. THIS MARKET HAS ACCELERATED, WE ARE GETTING REPORTS THAT CORN YIELDS AS THE HARVEST HAS MOVED NORTH IS BETTER THAN EXPECTED. EVEN IN SOME OF THE REALLY HOT AREAS IN THE SOUTH AND ALL THAT --YIELDS COMING IN A LOT BETTER THAN EXPECTED, THIS MARKET HAS A TOP, I THINK IT WAS A VERY SIGNIFICANT WEEK. I'M NOT SURE THOUGH THAT THE --FSA NUMBERS HAVE REALLY BEEN GUESTED BY EVERYBODY IN TERMS OF HOW MANY ACRES WE AREN'T GOING TO HARVEST, AND DIDN'T GET PLANTED. I UNDERSTAND THAT AND I THINK THE MARKET ALREADY EXPECTS THAT. YOU THINK. WHICH IS WHY IT'S A NONISSUE RIGHT NOW. THERE CAN BE A LOT OF ACRES THAT DON'T GET HARVESTED JUST LIKE IN COTTON BUT THE FACT OF THE MATTER IS WE RAN CORN UP TO 7.5 DOLLARS A BUSHEL. I THINK --WE DON'T HAVE A SHORTAGE OF 750 CORN. WE WERE CUTTING OFF WHILE EXPORTS WERE DROPPING, SUBSTITUTING WHEAT FOR CORN IN LIVESTOCK RATIONS. THIS THING IS REALLY HURT DEMAND AND I DON'T THINK THE MARKETS RECOGNIZE THAT AND THEN WHAT HAPPENS IN THIS TYPE OF MARKET IS PRICES START TO GO LOWER. THE BUYER SAYS WHY SHOULD I STEP UP TO THE PLATE AND BUY THIS NOW IF I JUST WAIT I WILL BE ABLE TO BUY IT CHEAPER AND THEN THE DEMAND LOOKS WEAKER AND NEXT THING YOU KNOW YOU HAVE A HUGE BEAR MARKET. THE BUYER --YOU APPROVE WITH EVERYTHING HE SAYS? UNFORTUNATELY IT'S A TRUE STORY. YOU KNOW NOT ONLY DO YOU HAVE THE REAL DEMAND, CONSUMER DEMAND LIKE POULTRY DOWN 8%, THAT'S THE FATTEST YOU CAN GET ON AWEEKLY BASIS, WE ARE SEEING THE CATTLE NUMBERS, WE ALL KNOW ARE DOWN. THE NONCONSUMING DEMAND IS THE FUND AND THEY ARE BAILING. THERE IS MASSIVE FUND SCIENCE THAT STARTS OUT BY CREDIT AGRICULTURE, THREE MAJOR BANKS IN EUROPE WHO LEFT A LOT OF MONEY TO HEDGE FUNDS AND THEY ARE CALLING THE MONEY BECAUSE THEY NEED THEIR RATIOS IN LINE. THAT PRESSURE PUT --THAT SELLING PUT PRESSURE ON THE MARKET PUT THEM ON MORE MARCH GAIN CALL. I THINK IN THE CORN MARKET THE FUNDS SOLD 50,000 CONTRACTS THIS WEEK ALONE. IN TWO MINUTES DURING THE WEEK THERE WAS A FUND THAT SOLD 64 MILLION-BUSHELS IN A TWO MINUTE PERIOD. WOW. WHAT YOU ARE SAYING IS THAT THE THING WE HAVE TALKED ABOUT IN TERMS OF FUNDAMENTAL, THIS OUTSIDE MONEY, THE FUNDS ALL THE TIME. THEY NOW ARE BEING SQUEEZED AND THEY DON'T HAVE THE MONEY SO THEY HAVE TO LIKE LIQUIDATE. THAT'S WHAT IS HAPPENING. THEY HELP WHEN IT'S GOING UP BUT THEY DRIVE THE MARKET HIGHER THAN IT SHOULD GO IN A BULL MARKET AND NOW WILL DRIVE IT LOWER THAN IT SHOULD IN A BEAR MARKET. WE THINK WE ARE JUST AT THE EARLY STAGES OF THIS IN CORN. I THINK WE ARE READY TO GO IN THE BIGGEST BEAR MARKET WE HAVE SEEN IN 30 YEARS. LET'S TALK ABOUT THE OLD FASHION SUPPLY AND DEMAND. HAVE WE EXCEEDED OUR PRICES FOR MAJOR DEMAND. YOU MENTIONED POULT RY. SO, BASED ON TYPICAL ECONOMIC FORMULA WITH FUND ACTIVITY ON A NORMAL TREND OF BUYING, YOU COULD TAKE THE CARRY OVER WE HAVE AND PROJECT PRICE TO 820. YOU TAKE A NONCONSUMING FACTOR LIKE THE FUND OUT AND THAT SAME FORMULA COULD DROP --I DON'T KNOW WHAT IT WOULD BE. THE FORMULAS ARE SO MESSED UP. IT WOULD BE WHERE DOES THE END USER FEEL COMFORTABLE BUYING? WHERE IS THAT? IS IT FIVE DOLLARS, THAT IS STILL A HIGH PRICE FOR CORN. YEAH TALK TAG A BUYER HE WILL KEEP THE NUMBERS AS LOW AS POSSIBLE. SO RIGHT NOW WE ARE REALLY --WHERE IS THE VALUE OF CORN. WITHOUT THE FUND. RIGHT NOW THE FUNDS ARE GETTING OUT. LET'S GO AHEAD AND EXPLORE THAT WHEN WE COME BACK. MORE REPORT IN JUST A MOMENT. . BILL AND RICHARD, ROUND TABLE GUESTS. WE WERE TALKING ABOUT SUPPLY AND DEMAND AND --I WANTED TO PURSUE THAT, HAS THE EXPORT DEMAND BEEN CURBED YET? YEAH. ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT SOYBEANS? THEN ALSO CORN. NOT MUCH BUT THEY HAVE BEEN WAY BEHIND LAST YEAR. OKAY. AND THE MARKET SEEING THAT AS VERY NEGATIVE. YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT THAT YEAR. LAST YEAR THEY WERE FAR ACCELERATED. IT WAS WHAT WOULD BE THE UP TREND. NOW IT'S DRAGGING THEIR FEET. THEY ARE BEHIND. YEAH. AND 9 BEANS THEY ARE BUYING ARE FROM SOUTH AMERICA. WE HAVE SEEN A HUGE SHIFT TO SOUTH AMERICAN BEANS AND I THINK THE MARKET IS CONCERNED THERE MAY ALSO BE A SHIFT TO ARGENTINE CORN WHICH --BECAUSE OF DIFFERENT EXPORT IT'S A LOT CHEAPER. I ALSO GOT A LITTLE RUMOR ABOUT THE FACT THAT A LOT OF THE OTHER COUNTRIES NOW ARE BRINGING FARMS --THEIR OWN FARMLAND. IT WASN'T ECONOMICAL FOR THEM TO GET INVOLVED WHEN WE HAD PRICES AT TWO, THREE, FOUR FIVE DOLLAR CORN. WHEN IT GOT UP TO MAYBE EIGHT. IT MADE SENSE.
YOU GET THESE KIND OF PRICE LEVELS AND THE IMPROVED GENETICS DID CAN BE USED IN OTHER AREAS OF THE WORLD, WE ARE GOING TO SEE THAT OVER THIS COMING YEAR. NO KIDDING. WE WILL SEE A LOT MORE ACRES INCREASE WORLDWIDE. KEEP THE PRICE OF ANYTHING HIGH SOMEBODY WILL FIND A WAY TO GROW MORE OR USE LESS AND WE TEND TO FORGET HISTORY REPEATS AND --WE ARE ABOUT READY TO REPEAT AGAIN. THERE ARE WAY TOO MANY --THIS CAN'T HAPPEN AND WE ARE RUNNING OUT OF CORN. THAT NUMBER IS HOW IT GOT TO WHERE IT WAS. I GOT TO ADD TO THAT. WE ARE --WE WERE IN A BUBBLE, WE WERE TRADING A SHORTAGE IN THE UNITED STATES AND GRANTED WE HAVE A TIGHT CARRY OVER. WE HAVE ONLY 17 MILLION-TONS OF CORN. COMPARE THAT TO CHINA. THEY HAVE 50 MILLION-TONS. THEY HAVE MORE THAN TRIPLE WHAT WE HAVE. WE WERE DOWN TO 4.4 MILLION, NOW WE HAVE --125 WITH THE FROST MAYBE. IT'S FOUR MILLION TONS, SOUTH AMERICA ALONE, JUST BRAZIL, NOT --HAVE 42 MILLION METRIC TONS. THEY HAVE TEN TIMES THE BEANS IN STORAGE IN CARRY OVER. WE THINK THERE IS A SHORTAGE AND THE BEANS HAVE TO GO TO $15. IF THE DEMAND SHIFTS FROM THE UNITED STATES CURRENCY, IT'S GOING TO BE A TOUGH DEMAND MARKET TO EVER BUY BACK. I GUESS REALLY --I DON'T --PROBABLY DON'T HAVE TIME BUT WHAT IS THE PRODUCER GOING TO DO. HOW TO MAKE DECISIONS, THOSE PRESSURES ARE HIGH, THEY NEED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE WHEN THEY GO DOWN. REALLY SIMPLE, JUST PICK UP THE PHONE AND SELLT. OLD RULE OF THUMB. NEVER STORE A SHORT CROP, ALWAYS STORE A BIG ONE. WE ARE TELLING CLIENTS NOT TO STORE ANYTHING. HAVE EVERYTHING SOLD. IF THEY WANT TO --DELIVERY FOR TAXES, FINE BUT HAVE IT PRICED. I --WE ARE 80% SOLD IN OLD CROP, 50% ON THE NEW CROP TO 12 AND I THINK THAT IS RIGHT. I THINK WE SHOULD BE HEAVIER, RALLIES, DON'T THINK MANY WILL --YOU CAN LOCK IN THE --WITH ARE ENCOURAGING PEOPLE TO --I CAN'T KNOW HOW MUCH RISK THERE IS IN THE CORN BEAN MARKET, PARTICULARLY CORN. WE ARE PRETTY CLOSE. TO GET THE FARMER TO DO THOSE RECOMMENDATIONS, YOU HAVE TO PICK UP THE PHONE, MAKE A DECISION, I CAN LOCK IN A THOUSAND DOLLARS AN ACRE, WILL I GAMBLE OR LOCK IT IN? RIGHT. THE ANSWER IS --TAKE ADVANTAGE OF IT AND TO DO IT AND THAT SORT OF THING A LOT OF GUYS ARE BEGINNING TO MAKE PLANS AND LOOK AT THE HIGH PRICES AND THE CASH RENTS, ARE WAY TOO HIGH. . AND THEY HAVE THEM LOCKED IN. SOME MAY HAVE. THEY HAVE FOUR OR FIVE HUNDRED. THERE IS GOING TO BE A TOUGH SITUATION FOR A LOT OF PEOPLE HERE WHERE THEY HAVE LOCKED IN HIGH CASH RENTS, FERTILIZER, ALL THE INPUTS AND ANYTHING THAT'S DONE THEY BETTER HAVE THE CROPS SOLD AS WELL. THAT'S HOW THE ETHANOL PLANTS WENT BROKE. THEY HAD ONE SIDE DONE. YOU HAVE TO ACTUALLY LOOK OUT IF YOU MAKE THAT KIND OF INVESTMENT BE SURE IT'LL BE COVERED AT A PROFIT. WHAT I'M EXCITED ABOUT IT SAYS TEACH THE KID THE INHERITANCE TO THEIR INHERITANCE, THIS IS THE TIME TO TEACH KIDS TO MANAGE MONEY. A LOT OF KIDS --IT'S TIME TO TEACH THEM HOW TO LOCK IN MONEY. WE WILL BE RIGHT BACK

JOHN’S WORLD: IT SEEMS LIKE ABOUT ONCE A YEAR, I READ AN ARTICLE ABOUT HOW MUCH FARMLAND IS GOING TO CHANGE HANDS IN THE FUTURE, AND THESE ANNOUNCEMENTS ALWAYS IMPLY SOME UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY OR CHALLENGE THIS TURNOVER WILL PRESENT. RECENTLY I READ WHERE SOMEONE PREDICTED 70% WOULD CHANGE HANDS IN THE NEXT FIFTEEN YEARS. MY GOODNESS, THAT'S OVER 2/3!  BUT IS THIS REALLY SOMETHING TO WORRY ABOUT OR EVEN NEWSWORTHY. I DON'T THINK SO, AND HERE'S WHY. FIRST DO SOME SIMPLE MATH. 70% OVER 15 YEARS MEANS ABOUT 5% PER YEAR. IS THIS UNUSUAL? CONSIDER HOW FARMLAND IS OWNED AND TRANSFERRED. MUCH OF IT IS PASSED DOWN UPON THE DEATH OF THE OWNER WHICH OCCURS EVERY GENERATION, IF A GENERATION IS 20-25 YEARS, THEN WE WOULD EXPECT 4-5% TURNOVER AS AN AVERAGE. A 2002 STUDY IN NEBRASKA SUGGESTS THE TURNOVER RATE THERE AVERAGES ABOUT 3%, BUT FOR VARIOUS REASONS, I THINK THAT MIGHT BE LOW. SECOND, CONSIDER FARMLAND BOUGHT BY FARMERS AND OTHERS. I HAVE BOUGHT SEVEN TRACTS IN MY LIFE STARTING AT AGE 35, BUT MOST OF THEM IN MY 50'S AND 60'S. IF I LIVE AN AVERAGE LIFETIME, I WILL OWN THEM FOR ABOUT 20 YEARS AT MOST. SINCE FARMERS ACQUIRE MOST LAND LATER IN LIFE USUALLY, I THINK A TENURE OF 20 YEARS IS TYPICAL. AGAIN WE'RE BACK TO A 5% TURNOVER. FINALLY, THE PREDICTION HAD NO RANGE OF ERROR, WHICH IS ALWAYS A CLUE TO USEFULNESS. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THESE HEADLINES ARE NOT NEWS. WHEN CONFRONTED WITH BOLD ASSERTIONS LIKE THIS, ALWAYS ASK, "HOW MUCH DIFFERENT IS THIS FROM THE RATE RIGHT NOW?" LET US KNOW WHAT YOU THINK.... SEND EMAILS TO MAILBAG@USFARMREPORT.COM OR CALL AND LEAVE US A VOICE MAIL.

2ND HALF:
JOHN’S OPEN:
HELLO AND WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT, I'M JOHN PHIPPS. BETWEEN FOOD SCARES AND OBESITY PREDICTIONS, MANY OF US ARE LOOKING AT OUR PLATES DIFFERENTLY THESE DAYS. FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO PREPARE THE FOOD IN YOUR HOUSE, MY HAT'S OFF TO THE EFFORTS SO MANY ARE MAKING TO EAT HEALTHIER. IT'S NOT EASY TO STAY UP WITH THE LATEST GUIDELINES AND RESEARCH FINDINGS THOUGH. IN FACT, IT CAN BE FRUSTRATING TO WATCH CERTAIN FOODS FALL FROM FAVOR ONLY TO SHOW BACK UP AS RECOMMENDED FARE A FEW YEARS LATER. ONE OF THE BEST PIECES OF ADVICE I HAVE HEARD, HOWEVER MAY BE THE SIMPLE ADVICE TO BUY INGREDIENTS, AND NOT FOOD. IT MAY BE NO COINCIDENCE THAT OUR PROBLEMS BEGAN AS HOME COOKING DECLINED. LET'S GET STARTED WITH THE HEADLINES AND AL PELL...

ECOLI TESTING: THANK YOU JOHN. UNDER PRESSURE FROM FOOD SAFETY ADVOCATES, THE GOVERNMENT WILL INCREASE E-COLI TESTING FOR GROUND BEEF. USDA SAYS IT WILL BEGIN TESTING FOR SIX MORE STRAINS OF E-COLI BACTERIA IN RAW BEEF NEXT MARCH. CURRENTLY INSPECTORS TEST FOR ONE STRAIN – O157H7 - THE MOST COMMON. USDA BELIEVES THE OTHER "BIG-SIX" ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR MORE THAN 110,000 ILLNESSES PER YEAR. MEAT PROCESSORS SAY THEY'RE ON BOARD BUT SOME IN THE BEEF INDUSTRY WORRY ABOUT THE COST OF THE EXPANDED INSPECTIONS.

APPLE JUICE: ALSO THIS WEEK, THE FOOD-AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION STANDS UP FOR APPLE JUICE. THE FDA SAYS ALL BRANDS ARE SAFE TO DRINK DESPITE CONCERNS RAISED ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF ARSENIC FOUND IN SOME PRODUCTS. "DR. OZ" - A NATIONAL TV PROGRAM - RAISED THE CONCERN AFTER CONDUCTING ITS OWN TESTS. ARSENIC COMES IN TWO FORMS - - INORGANIC WHICH AT HIGH DOSES CAN CAUSE CANCER OR KIDNEY PROBLEMS AND ORGANIC - - WHICH, ACCORDING TO THE FDA, IS HARMLESS. THE FDA SAYS JUICE IS TESTED TO MAKE SURE LEVELS ARE BELOW ANY DANGEROUS THRESHOLDS. THE FDA MAINTAINS THE TV SHOW MEASURED LEVELS INCORRECTLY...AND APPLE JUICE IS SAFE TO DRINK.

PRODUCE EXPORTS: MEANWHILE, EXPORTS OF FRUITS AND VEGETABLES ARE HITTING NEW HIGHS THIS YEAR. ACCORDING TO USDA ESTIMATES, GROWERS COULD EXPORT NEARLY SEVEN BILLION DOLLARS WORTH OF FRESH FRUITS AND VEGETABLES THIS FISCAL YEAR...THAT'S ABOUT A BILLION MORE THAN THE YEAR BEFORE. FUELING THE GAINS ARE EXPORTS TO JAPAN, EUROPE AND CANADA AIDED BY A WEAK U.S. DOLLAR. ON THE FLIP SIDE THE U.S. IS LIKELY TO IMPORT MORE THAN 12 BILLION DOLLARS WORTH OF FRESH PRODUCE.

PEANUT BUTTER: IF YOU LIKE PEANUTS AND PEANUT BUTTER YOU MAY WANT TO STOCK UP. A POOR HARVEST THIS YEAR MEANS PEANUT PRODUCTS WILL SOON COST ABOUT 30% MORE IN THE GROCERY AISLE. THE AG DEPARTMENT SAYS THIS YEAR'S PEANUT CROP IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 13% SMALLER THAN IT WAS A YEAR AGO. DROUGHT AND HOT WEATHER HURT YIELDS. COUPLE THAT WITH FEWER PLANTED ACRES DUE TO INCREASED COMPETITION FROM CORN AND COTTON, AND SUPPLIES ARE SHORT. FOOD MANUFACTURERS EXPECT THE SHORT SUPPLY TO INCREASE THEIR COSTS--WHICH THEY'LL PASS ON TO CONSUMERS. PRICES OF THINGS LIKE PEANUT BUTTER MAY GO UP 30% BY THIS NOVEMBER.

HEARTLAND; COLORADO HORSESHOE QUEEN: THERE ARE LOTS OF PAST-TIMES IN RURAL AMERICA--BUT THE CLASSICS CONTINUE TO HOLD THEIR GROUND. FOR YEARS, PITCHING HORSESHOES HAS BEEN A STAR ATTRACTION AT FAMILY REUNIONS, TOWN PICNICS AND EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN. THIS WEEKEND A NEW CONTRIBUTOR--ANNE HERBST OF THE DENVER POST - INTRODUCES US TO A COLORADO WOMAN WHO FRIENDS AND ADMIRERS LIKE TO CALL "THE HORSESHOE QUEEN". TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THIS GREAT AMERICAN GAME, HEAD ONLINE TO WWW.HORSEPITCHING.COM ...THE HOME PAGE OF THE NATIONAL HORSESHOE PITCHERS ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA.

LA NINA USDA: FOR DROUGHT-RAVAGED STATES IN THE SOUTHERN U.S., THE RETURN OF LA NINA IS NOT GOOD NEWS. LA NINA IS THE PERIODIC COOLING OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN. HERE IN THE U.S., THAT TYPICALLY MEANS DRIER-THAN-USUAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE BOTTOM LINE - MORE DRY DAYS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DROUGHT-STRICKEN STATES OF TEXAS, OKLAHOMA AND NEW MEXICO. RIPPEY ALSO WARNS THE RETURN OF LA NINA COULD SPELL THE RETURN OF DROUGHT TO PARTS OF THE SOUTH-EAST...AN AREA WHERE DRY CONDITIONS HAVE EASED IN RECENT MONTHS.

TEXAS CATTLE: THE DEVASTATING DROUGHT HAS HIT THE LIVESTOCK INDUSTRY IN TEXAS ESPECIALLY HARD THIS SUMMER. FOR MANY OPERATIONS, A REDUCED HERD HAS BEEN THE RESULT. REGIONAL REPORTER ERICA GOSS TALKS WITH TWO PRODUCERS WHO ARE STRUGGLING TO FIND FEED AND WATER FOR THEIR ANIMALS. THANKS ERICA. UP NEXT - IT'S TIME FOR TRACTOR TALES AND OUR COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE...PLEASE STAY WITH US.

TRACTOR TALES: AL JOINS US NOW WITH TRACTOR TALES...WHAT'S DO YOU HAVE FOR US THIS WEEK? JOHN, WE'RE GOING TO MEET A SERIOUS MOLINE COLLECTOR. THIS TRACTOR HAS BEEN IN THE FAMILY FOR MORE THAN 30 YEARS BUT IT DOESN'T SEE MUCH WORK THESE DAYS. THE OWNER SAYS THEY JUST LIKE TO SHOW IT OFF. BE SURE TO WATCH NEXT WEEK WHEN WE INTRODUCE YOU TO THIS 1946 OLIVER CLETRAC TRACTOR...THAT'S NEXT WEEKEND ON U.S. FARM REPORT. 

CHURCH SALUTE: TODAY WE SALUTE TWO COUNTRY CHURCHES, BEGINNING WITH THE PIS-GAH UNITED METHODIST CHURCH OF MORGAN COUNTY, OHIO. FOUNDED IN 1866, THE FIRST SERVICES WERE CONDUCTED INSIDE A LOG-CHURCH BUILDING. THE PRESENT CHURCH WAS BUILT IN 1873 AND STILL STANDS TODAY. CHURCH ORGANIST BRIAN MCKEE SAYS THE CAMPBELL, MOODY, PRICE, ARMSTRONG, SMITH AND VICKROY FAMILIES HAVE SUPPORTED THE CHURCH FROM ITS BEGINNINGS. OUR SECOND SALUTE GOES TO THE SPERRY UNITED METHODIST CHURCH OF SPERRY, IOWA WHICH IS CELEBRATING 125 YEARS OF MINISTRY. IN MAY OF 1886, THE METHODISTS OF SPERRY PURCHASED TWO LOTS OF LAND AND STARTED CONSTRUCTION ON A CHURCH. IT WAS DEDICATED THAT FALL. THE FIRST MINISTER - REVEREND THOMAS SADLER POOL - BUILT A PULPIT AND IT'S STILL USED TODAY. CONGRATULATIONS TO SPERRY UNITED METHODIST CHURCH. AS ALWAYS WE WANT TO LEARN ABOUT YOUR HOME CHURCH AS WELL... SALUTES CAN BE SENT TO THE ADDRESS ON THE SCREEN. STAY WITH US - THE MAILBAG IS NEXT.

MAILBAG: TIME NOW FOR OUR WEEKLY LOOK INSIDE THE FARM REPORT MAILBAG....GRACE DIVINE HAS A QUESTION ABOUT ARCTIC SEA ICE AFTER MY MENTION OF THE CHINESE BUSINESSMAN BUYING A VAST TRACT OF ICELAND AS A POSSIBLE PRELUDE TO A NEW SHIPPING ROUTE. "JOHN SAID THAT THE U.S. NAVY HAS STATED THAT ALL ICE SHOULD BE OUT OF THE ARCTIC BY 2035. CAN YOU POINT US IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION TO FIND OUT MORE ABOUT THAT?" FIRST LET ME CLARIFY MY STATEMENT A LITTLE, GRACE. WHAT THE NAVY HAS PREDICTED IS THERE WOULD BE ONE ICE-FREE MONTH - PROBABLY SEPTEMBER WHEN THE MINIMUM IS REACHED - BY THE MID-2030'S. IN FACT. THEY ARE STARTING PLANNING FOR PATROLS, REFUELING, AND RESCUE OPERATIONS THERE. THESE PREDICTIONS ARE BASED ON THE STEEP DECLINE IN ARCTIC ICE COVERAGE, WHICH IS NOW PRETTY EASY TO MEASURE ACCURATELY BY SATELLITE. THE OLD MINIMUM RECORD WAS 2007 AND WE'RE COMING CLOSE THIS YEAR. BUT THE STORY GETS BETTER. AS YOU MIGHT EXPECT, THERE IS AN ACTIVE "ARCTIC SEA ICE BLOG" I HAVE FOUND WHERE PEOPLE WHO STUDY THIS ISSUE POST NEW RESEARCH AND DEBATE. I'LL PUT LINKS FOR ALL THESE SOURCES ON OUR HOMEPAGE. ANYWAY, IF YOU MEASURE ICE THICKNESS IN ADDITION TO AREA TO GET ICE VOLUME THE TREND IS REINFORCED. IN FACT, BY SOME CALCULATIONS THERE IS A 50% PROBABILITY THE ENTIRE ARCTIC COULD BE ICE-FREE FOR 5 MONTHS BY THE MID-2020'S. REMEMBER THERE IS NO LAND AT THE NORTH POLE, UNLIKE THE SOUTH POLE, SO THE ARCTIC WILL SOON BE JUST ANOTHER OCEAN, IT SEEMS. THIS IS, OF COURSE, SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC FOR SANTA CLAUS. AS ALWAYS, WE WANT TO HEAR FROM YOU, SEND COMMENTS TO MAILBAG@USFARMREPORT.COM OR LEAVE US A VOICE MAIL AT 800-792-4329.


 

Back to news


Comments

 
Spell Check

No comments have been posted to this News Article

Corn College TV Education Series

2014_Team_Shot_with_Logo

Get nearly 8 hours of educational video with Farm Journal's top agronomists. Produced in the field and neatly organized by topic, from spring prep to post-harvest. Order now!

Markets

Market Data provided by QTInfo.com
Brought to you by Beyer
Close