USFR Weekly Recap - September 28-29, 2013

September 28, 2013 03:30 AM
 

 

 

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THIS WEEK ON U.S. FARM REPORT

EPISODE # 2094

SEPTEMBER 28-29, 2013   

 

JOHN:

HELLO AND WELCOME TO U-S FARM REPORT, I'M JOHN PHIPPS. LOOKING AROUND AT NEIGHBORS IN THE FIELDS I CAN'T HELP BUT NOTICE HOW AFTER-MARKET ATTACHMENTS FOR DOWN CORN ARE BECOMING ALMOST MANDATORY ADD-ONS FOR CORNHEADS. ONCE AN ODDITY REQUIRED BY A FREAK STORM OR RARE HYBRID FAILURE, REELS AND SIDE CONES ARE NOW STANDARD FEATURES OF SOME NEW CORNHEADS. THIS SUGGESTS A LITERAL COLLISION BETWEEN MORE COMMON STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS AND HYBRIDS THAT SACRIFICE STANDABILITY FOR YIELD. AFTER ALL, THERE ARE NO NATIONAL AWARDS FOR LEAST LODGING. BUT ONE SEASON OF FRUSTRATINGLY SLOW HARVESTING CAN MAKE STALK QUALITY A HIGHER PRIORITY.

FEEDER RALLY:

THANKS JOHN. A BIGGER THAN EXPECTED CORN CROP IS PROMPTING A RALLY IN FEEDER CATTLE THIS WEEK.

BEEF AGREEMENT:

AN ALLIANCE OF CATTLEMEN REPRESENTING AUSTRALIA, CANADA, MEXICO, NEW ZEALAND AND THE U.S. HAVE JOINED FORCES IN SUPPORT OF A COMPREHENSIVE TRANS-PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENT. THE FIVE NATIONS BEEF ALLIANCE says the union is BASED ON 10 CORE PRINCIPALS--INCLUDING THE ELIMINATION OF ALL TARIFFS AND MARKET ACCESS BARRIERS. THESE FIVE NATIONS ACCOUNT FOR HALF OF THE WORLD'S BEEF EXPORTS.

CHINA POULTRY:

U-S POULTRY PRODUCERS CHALKED-UP A WIN AGAINST CHINA. CHINA IMPOSED DUTIES ON U-S CHICKEN CLAIMING THE U.S. WAS DUMPING POULTRY PRODUCTS ON THE MARKET. THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION SAYS THE MOVE VIOLATES INTERNATIONAL TRADE RULES.
EXPORTS TO CHINA HAVE FALLEN 90 PERCENT SINCE CHINA IMPOSED THE DUTIES.

ADM MOVE:

ARCHER DANIELS MIDLAND COMPANY SAYS IT'S LOOKING FOR A NEW HOME FOR ITS GLOBAL HEADQUARTERS. IT'S BEEN BASED IN DECATUR, ILLINOIS FOR 44 YEARS.

CROP PROGRESS:

TAKING A LOOK AT THE LATEST CROP PROGRESS REPORT.  93 PERCENT OF THE COUNTRY'S SPRING WHEAT CROP HAS BEEN HARVESTED, SPOT ON WITH THE AVERAGE PACE.
MEANWHILE, ONLY 7 PERCENT OF THE NATION'S CORN CROP HAS BEEN HARVESTED AT THIS TIME. THAT'S 9 POINTS BEHIND AVERAGE BUT LAGGING 21 POINTS FROM LAST YEAR'S RECORD PACE. USDA STARTED RECORDING SOYBEAN HARVEST THIS WEEK. IT SHOWS 3 PERCENT IS OUT OF THE FIELD, 6 POINTS BEHIND AVERAGE.

EYE IN THE SKY:

WE CONTINUE OUR EYE IN THE SKY SERIES THIS WEEKEND, BY TAKING A BIRDS EYE VIEW THIS YEAR'S HIGHLY VARIABLE CROPS--OVER THE NEXT THREE WEEKS WE'LL BE ABOVE SOME OF THE KEY CORN AND SOYBEAN GROWING REGIONS OF THE COUNTRY. TODAY FIELD AGRONOMIST KEN FERRIE TAKES US TO THE SKY'S ABOVE CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

CROP WATCH:

IN TRAVERSE COUNTY, MINNESOTA, ONE FARMER POSTED ON AGWEB THAT'S HE HARVESTED 600 ACRES OF BEANS AND YIELDS CONTINUE TO BE DISAPPOINTING. THEY ARE FIVE-TO-30-PERCENT BELOW AVERAGE. AND OTHER FIELDS DON'T LOOK ANY BETTER. AND IN CLEVELAND COUNTY, NORTH CAROLINA - A CROP REPORTER SAYS COTTON DEFOILATION STARTED LAST WEEK, AND THE CORN HARVEST MADE MAJOR HEADWAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS.

JOHN’S WORLD:

ONE ODD UPSIDE TO THE VIGOROUS DEBATE OVER SNAP - FORMERLY CALLED FOOD STAMPS - AS CONGRESS STRUGGLES TO PASS A FARM BILL, IS THE CHANCE TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THE PROGRAM. IT TURNS OUT THE PUBLIC DOESN'T KNOW MUCH, AND WHAT WE DO KNOW IS USUALLY INCORRECT. FOR EXAMPLE, THE IDEA THAT THE GROWTH IN SNAP BENEFITS WAS DUE TO EXPANDED ELIGIBILITY. ACCORDING TO A RECENT CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE STUDY, 80% OF THE EXPANSION WAS THE RESULT OF THE RECESSION. MORE PEOPLE OUT OF WORK EQUALS MORE SNAP RECIPIENTS. DUE TO THE SLOW RECOVERY AND THE NORMAL TIME LAG, THAT BULGE WILL DECLINE IN FUTURE, AND IS ALREADY IS BEGINNING. THE SECOND INTERESTING ANGLE IS SPECULATION BY SOME ECONOMISTS THAT SNAP IS MORE CONTROVERSIAL THAN OTHER SAFETY NET PROGRAMS BECAUSE IT IS SO PUBLIC. MANY OF THE CRITICISMS COME FROM PEOPLE WHO WATCH WHAT RECIPIENTS BUY WITH THEIR FOOD STAMPS. IT MAKES ME WONDER WHAT IT WOULD BE LIKE IF FARM SUBSIDIES WERE DISTRIBUTED AS "FARM STAMPS" AND HAD TO BE USED IN PUBLIC TRANSACTIONS. I'M PRETTY SURE THE GUY BEHIND ME AT THE FARM STORE WOULD BE TICKED OFF I WAS BUYING FANCY TOOLS WITH MY FARM STAMPS. FINALLY, THIS ACRIMONY IS SPILLING OVER INTO THE WHOLE JUNK FOOD/OBESITY DEBATE - ESPECIALLY SUGARY DRINKS. HIGH-FRUCTOSE CORN SYRUP WAS STRUGGLING TO BEGIN WITH, BUT DISAPPROVAL OF FOOD STAMPS TO BUY SODA IS ANOTHER NAIL IN THAT COFFIN.

2ND HALF

HEADLINES:

THE DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS INCREASED DRYNESS IN THE CENTRAL CORN BELT AS THE WEST GETS RELIEF. A NEW ADVISORY FOR WILDFIRES: THE FIRE HAZARD SCALE. TAKING THE LONG ROAD TO A CAREER IN CATTLE FEEDING.

JOHN:

 I HAVE BEEN SLIPPING OUT OF TOUCH WITH WORLD NEWS DURING HARVEST, BUT ONE BIT OF GOOD NEWS CAUGHT MY EYE: UNEMPLOYMENT HAVE JUMPED SHARPLY. THE GOOD NEWS PART OF THIS IS I'M TALKING ABOUT CHILD LABOR. ACCORDING TO THE INTERNATIONAL LABOR ORGANIZATION, THE NUMBER OF CHILDREN AROUND THE GLOBE BETWEEN 5 AND 17 HAS DROPPED TO AROUND 170 MILLION IN 2012. WHILE THAT STILL SEEMS LIKE A LOT, IT WAS OVER 300 MILLION AS RECENTLY AS 2000. KEEPING THE GLOBAL ECONOMY GROWING IS THE KEY, BUT I THINK THERE IS ALSO A HINT HERE THAT THE NEED FOR UNSKILLED LABOR IS NOT UNLIMITED. WHICH MEANS WE NEED TO SEE SOME BETTER NEWS FOR OUR GLOBAL EDUCATIONAL EFFORTS AS WELL. LET'S GET STARTED WITH THE HEADLINES AND AL PELL IN FOR TYNE MORGAN.

CANTALOUPE ARREST:

THE OWNERS OF A COLORADO FARM NOW FACE FEDERAL CHARGES FOR THEIR ALLEGED INVOLVEMENT IN A DEADLY LISTERIA OUTBREAK THAT WAS LINKED TO CANTALOUPE.

US AND JAPAN ORGANIC:

THE UNITED STATES AND JAPAN HAVE AGREED TO MAKE IT EASIER TO IMPORT EACH OTHER'S ORGANIC PRODUCTS.

SMITHFIELD:

A CHINESE PORK PROCESSOR IS ONE IMPORTANT STEP CLOSER TO TAKING OVER SMITHFIELD FOODS. EARLIER THIS WEEK SMITHFIELD SHAREHOLDERS OKAYED A 4 POINT 7 BILLION DOLLAR OFFER FROM SHANG-WAY INTERNATIONAL.

PREVENT PLANT:

A POPULAR PROGRAM FOR FARMERS FACING A DIFFICULT GROWING SEASON IS COMING UNDER SCRUTINY. THE U-S INSPECTOR GENERAL SAYS CURRENT COVERAGE LEVEL FOR PREVENTIVE PLANTINGS PAYS TOO MUCH AND DISCOURAGES MANY GROWERS FROM TRYING A SECOND PLANTING.

DROUGHT MONITOR:

THE U-S DROUGHT MONITOR THIS WEEK SHOWS DROUGHT EASED IN SEVERAL SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES. 45-PERCENT OF THE COUNTRY IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT OR WORSE. THAT'S DOWN THREE POINTS FROM LAST WEEK. IN THE MIDWEST, IOWA AND ILLINOIS DROUGHT CONDITIONS WORSENED. BUT THERE WERE BIG IMPROVEMENTS IN COLORADO, NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA DUE TO RECORD RAINFALL

FIRE HAZARD SCALE:

YOU'RE PROBABLY FAMILIAR WITH THE RATING SCALES FOR HURRICANES AND TORNADOES. NOW SCIENTISTS ARE DEVELOPING A SIMILAR SCALE FOR WILDFIRES.

HEARTLAND YAMAHA:

ANNE BURKHOLDER GREW-UP IN THE CITY, GRADUATED FROM AN IVY LEAGUE SCHOOL. BUT DECIDED WITH HER HUSBAND THAT RANCHING IN NEBRASKA IS HER TRUE CALLING. IN THIS REPORT PROVIDED BY THE AMERICAN ANGUS ASSOCIATION, ANNE TELLS US ABOUT CONNECTING WHAT SHE DOES TO CONSUMERS.

NEXT WEEK:

CORN MAZES ARE POPULAR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BUT THE WORK TO CREATE THOSE INTRICATE PATTERNS STARTED MONTHS AGO. MEET THE MAZE-MAKER NEXT WEEKEND ON U-S FARM REPORT.

BAXTER BLACK:

TIME TO WELCOME IN BAXTER BLACK. THIS WEEKEND HE TELLS US WHAT CAN HAPPEN WHEN MAN'S BEST FRIEND GOES MISSING. DON'T WORRY - THIS STORY HAS A HAPPY ENDING.

TRACTOR TALES:

WHERE ARE WE HEADED THIS WEEK FOR TRACTOR TALES? SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA FOR A CLASSIC ALLIS-CHALMERS. THIS 1966 D-12 IS ONE OF MORE THAN 50 ALLIS TRACTORS IN THIS COLLECTION. DAVID COX IS THE MECHANIC AND SHARES WHAT HE APPRECIATES ABOUT THESE WORKHORSES.

CHURCH SALUTE:

TODAY'S COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE GOES TO THE FIRST BAPTIST CHURCH OF CLARKS GROVE, MINNESOTA. THEY'RE CELEBRATING 150 YEARS OF SERVICE. IT WAS STARTED BY A GROUP OF 15 DANISH SETTLERS WHO RE-LOCATED FROM WISCONSIN TO MINNESOTA.
SERVICES WERE HELD IN PRIVATE HOMES UNTIL THEY BUILT A CHURCH IN 1866. IT SERVED THE CONGREGATION UNTIL THE LATE 1800'S WHEN THE CONGREGATION OUTGREW THE BUILDING AND DECIDED TO EXPAND. AT ONE TIME IT WAS THE LARGEST DANISH BAPTIST CHURCH IN THE COUNTRY. UNTIL 1930, SERMONS WERE CONDUCTED IN DANISH. OUR THANKS TO EVERETT JENSEN FOR SHARING THE NEWS ABOUT FIRST BAPTIST CHURCH OF CLARKS GROVE, MINNESOTA.

MAIL BAG:

TIME NOW FOR OUR WEEKLY LOOK INSIDE THE FARM REPORT MAILBAG...I HEARD FROM MANY OF YOU REGARDING MY SUPPORT OF FED MONETARY POLICY. A FEW OF YOU AGREED, BUT I ALSO HEARD IN DETAIL ABOUT WHY I WAS WRONG. STEPHEN PALMER WAS ONE.
"THE FED HAS TAKEN ACTIONS THAT ARE SHORT TERM BENEFICIAL AND LONG TERM DISASTROUS. JAPAN HAS FOLLOWED SIMILAR POLICIES AND THEY HAVE EXPERIENCED OVER A DECADE OF STAGFLATION." WE COULD SPEND WEEKS GOING BACK AND FORTH ON THIS TOPIC. IN FACT, ECONOMISTS HAVE BEEN OBSESSED WITH MONETARY POLICY. BUT TO YOUR POINT, THERE ARE NUMEROUS REASONS WHY THE U-S IS NOT GOING TO REPEAT THE JAPANESE RECENT HISTORY, IN MY OPINION. OUR ECONOMY IS NOT EXPORT DRIVEN, IT IS MOSTLY CONSUMPTION. OUR POPULATION IS NOT AGING AS FAST. AND OUR CURRENCY IS THE GLOBAL STANDARD. OUR ECONOMIC STORY WILL BE UNIQUE. BUT THE MAJOR POINT I WANT TO MAKE IS ALL OF THE DISAGREEING COMMENTS CONTAINED A DEEP CONCERN THE U-S ECONOMY IS HEADED FOR HUGE PROBLEMS SOON. ALL OF THEM PREDICTED IMMINENT DISASTER. THE REASON FOR THIS ECONOMIC DOOMSAYING, I BELIEVE, IS THE LACK OF BAD MONETARY NEWS RIGHT NOW. INFLATION IS LOW, INTEREST RATES ARE LOW. THE DOLLAR IS SOUND. INVESTORS ARE NOT DUMPING TREASURIES. SO PROOF OF THE ALLEGED FED FAILURE IS ALWAYS IN THE FUTURE. 'YOU JUST WAIT..." THOSE DIRE PREDICTIONS HAVE EXCEEDED THEIR SHELF LIFE. I WILL REVISIT THIS TOPIC NEXT YEAR IN SEPTEMBER, BUT UNTIL THEN I'LL WATCH FOR ANY REAL DATA INDICATING SERIOUS MONETARY POLICY PROBLEMS.

 

  

 As always, we want to hear from you, send comments to mailbag@usfarmreport.com or leave us a voice mail at 800-792-4329.

 

 

 

 

 

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