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WASDE: Lower Cotton Production, Higher Prices Forecast

11:06AM Jun 12, 2013

The 2013/14 U.S. cotton supply and demand balance sheet shows lower beginning and ending stocks, lower production, and higher prices relative to last month. The 2012/13 export estimate is raised 350,000 bales to 13.6 million, reducing the current season’s ending stocks forecast.

This adjustment reflects continued strong sales and shipments and expected higher imports by China. At the same time, projected U.S. production for 2013/14 is reduced to 13.5 million bales for 2013/14, as abandonment is raised to reflect continued drought conditions in the Southwest.

With the total 2013/14 supply 900,000 bales below last month, U.S. exports are reduced 500,000 bales to 11.0 million and ending stocks are reduced to 2.6 million, the equivalent of 18 percent of total use. The projected range for the marketing-year average price of 73 to 93 cents per pound is raised 5 cents on each end, with a midpoint of 83 cents per pound, 15 percent above the estimated average for 2012/13.

This month’s changes to the world cotton estimates for both 2012/13 and 2013/14 result primarily from a sharp increase of 1.75 million bales in China’s 2012/13 imports to a level of 20.0 million. Higher imports by China in the current season are drawing stocks out of exporting countries and constraining the 2013/14 supply outside of China available for global consumption and trade.

World production in 2013/14 is reduced slightly from last month, based on lower production for the United States, Turkmenistan, and others; world consumption also is reduced slightly.

China’s imports are reduced 1.0 million bales from last month to 11.0 million, accounting for most of the change in the world trade, as higher China imports in 2012/13 raise beginning stocks and domestic supplies. Projected world 2013/14 ending stocks are reduced marginally, but China’s stocks are raised 750,000 bales, leaving projected stocks outside of China about 3 percent lower. These projections assume that China continues current policies regulating the national reserve acquisition and release prices.




Coverage, Analysis of the June 12 USDA Reports
See all of the data, coverage and analysis of the WASDE and Crop Production reports.