WASDE: 2015 Meat, Milk Production Lowered

05:11PM Nov 10, 2014
USDA feedyard
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LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:  The forecast for total meat production in 2014 is raised from last month, but the forecast for 2015 is lowered.  Beef production is higher in 2014 but lowered for 2015.  Cattle feeders are expected to raise animals to heavier weights in 2014 and 2015, but this is more than offset by a slower pace of marketings in the second half of 2015.  Pork production is forecast lower in both 2014 and 2015 as hog weights are expected to reflect a more rapid movement of animals through finishing barns.  Broiler production is raised for 2014 and 2015 as producers have expanded at a more rapid rate.  Turkey production for 2014 is raised, reflecting September slaughter data, but the forecast for 2015 is unchanged.  Egg production is raised for 2014 based on September data and the forecast for 2015 is raised as favorable returns are expected to stimulate a more rapid expansion.

The 2014 beef import forecast is raised on the pace to date.  The forecast for 2015 is unchanged from last month.  Beef exports for 2014 are updated to reflect September data; the 2015 forecast is unchanged.  Pork imports are raised for 2014, but are unchanged for 2015.  Pork exports for 2014 are lowered to reflect September data, but the forecast for 2015 is unchanged.  Broiler exports are raised for 2014 and 2015 on strength of demand. The turkey export forecast for 2014 is lowered based on September data.  

Cattle price forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are raised from last month on continued demand strength.  The hog price forecasts for 2014 are lowered on weaker demand, but 2015 prices are unchanged.  Broiler and turkey price forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are unchanged.  Egg price forecasts for 2015 are reduced on higher production. 

The milk production forecast for 2014 is increased from last month as growth in milk per cow has increased.  However, for 2015, the production forecast is lowered as the expansion in cow numbers and growth in milk per cow are expected to be more moderate.  Export forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are lowered as U.S. dairy products, especially on a skim solids basis, remain less competitive in world markets. 

Cheese and nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices are raised for 2014, reflecting current price movements, but the price forecasts for 2015 are lowered as domestic supplies are expected to be relatively large.  Butter prices are reduced for both 2014 and 2015 based on prices to date and weaker expected exports.  Whey prices are unchanged from last month.  The Class III price for 2014 is raised on stronger cheese prices, but weaker cheese prices in 2015 result in a lower expected Class III price.  The Class IV price is lowered for 2014 as lower butter prices more than offset a higher NDM price.  For 2015 both butter and NDM prices will be weaker, resulting in a lower Class IV price forecast.  The all milk price is raised to $24.15 to $24.25 per cwt for 2014, but is lowered for 2015 to $18.85 to $19.75 per cwt.