RICE: All rice supplies for 2014/15 are increased slightly from last month due to an increase in production. U.S. all rice production is forecast at 221.1 million cwt, up 0.2 percent from last month due to an increase in yield. Average all rice yield is estimated at 7,597 pounds per acre, up 13 pounds per acre from a month ago. Harvested area is unchanged at 2.91 million acres. Long-grain rice production is up 0.2 million cwt to 160.3 million, and combined medium- and short-grain rice production is raised 0.1 million cwt to 60.8 million cwt.
On the 2014/15 use side, forecast all rice domestic and residual use and exports are unchanged from a month ago at 131.0 million cwt and 102.0 million, respectively. However, the rough rice export component is raised 1.0 million cwt to 35.0 million, up 22 percent from the prior year, and the largest since 2009/10. Conversely, exports of milled rice are lowered 1.0 million (rough-rice basis) to 67.0 million. Exports of combined medium- and short-grain rice are raised 2.0 million to 34.0 million, up 10 percent from 2013/14. Exports of medium-grain rice are expected to be larger because of forecast tighter supplies in Australia, and a change in the export policy in Egypt that likely will constrain exports. Australia and Egypt are two principal medium-grain rice competitors of the United States. Conversely, long-grain rice exports are lowered 2.0 million cwt to 68.0 million, still up 10 percent from the prior year. Long-grain milled rice markets in the Middle East and Africa are expected to be very competitive and likely will favor lower-priced rice sourced from Asia. U.S. long-grain exports will be strong to markets in the Western Hemisphere. All rice ending stocks are forecast at 40.9 million cwt, up nearly 1 percent from last month, and an increase of nearly 29 percent from 2013/14.
The 2014/15 long-grain rice season-average farm price range is projected at $12.20 to $13.20 per cwt, unchanged from last month. The combined medium- and short-grain farm price range is projected at $19.00 to $20.00 per cwt, up $1.30 per cwt on each end of the range. The all rice season-average farm price is forecast at $14.20 to $15.20 per cwt, up 40 cents per cwt on each end of the range. Tight supplies of combined medium- and short-grain rice in California along with reduced supplies among the major competitors including Australia and Egypt are expected to support prices. Conversely, a larger supply of lower priced Southern medium-grain rice will limit the increase in the total medium- and short-grain farm price.
Global 2014/15 ending stocks are lowered 5.7 million tons or nearly 5.5 percent due to a decrease in total supplies and an increase in consumption. Total supplies for 2014/15 are lowered 4.4 million tons due mostly to a reduction in beginning stocks of 4.0 million. India’s 2013/14 ending stocks are lowered nearly 3.0 million tons due mostly to an increase in consumption. Lower procurement of rice by the government of India coupled with higher disbursement of rice through the public distribution system drew down government rice stocks in 2013/14. Additionally, 2013/14 rice ending stocks in Thailand and Vietnam are lowered 0.8 million tons and 0.5 million, respectively. World 2014/15 rice production is lowered 0.4 million tons to 475.0 million tons due mostly to smaller crops forecast for Australia and Egypt, which are partially offset by an increase for South Korea. Global 2014/15 rice consumption is raised 1.3 million tons to a record 482.9 million due mostly to increases for India and Vietnam, partially offset by reductions for Egypt and South Korea. Global rice trade is up 0.4 million tons from a month ago with a 0.8-million-ton increase for Thailand, partially offset by reductions for Australia and Egypt. Imports are increased for EU and China. The decline in global ending stocks is due mostly to reductions for India, Thailand, and Vietnam, partially offset by increases for China, Egypt, EU, and South Korea. Global 2014/15 ending stocks at 98.6 million tons are down nearly 8 million tons from 2013/14 and the lowest stocks since 2009/10. Stocks among the major foreign exporters are down 18 percent from 2013/14.